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Total Talk - Week 8

October 26, 2012

Week 7 Recap

Total players have seen a real good balance this season and Week 7 was no different. The 'under' went 7-6 and most of the outcomes were clear-cut. The Green Bay-St. Louis was mentioned last week as a "Total System Play" and it cashed the 'over' but it was real fortunate. The two teams put up a combined 27 points (7 in the last minute) in the final quarter, which helped jump over the closing number of 45. These second-half outbursts have been very common through seven weeks and it's definitely helped the betting public get back some money on 'over' tickets. On the season, the 'over' stands at 52-51-1.

Professional Plug

Joe Nelson has gone 10-3-1 (77%) on his NFL Total Plays this season and that record includes his Thursday Night winner on the 'over' between the Buccaneers and Vikings. Check out his winners for Sunday!

Lookin' at London

The NFL International Series returns this week with New England (4-3) and St. Louis (3-4) meeting at Wembley Stadium from London. This will be the sixth installment from England and if the trends stay true, we could be looking at another 'under' ticket.

2007 - New York Giants 13 Miami 10 (Under 48)
2008 - New Orleans 37 San Diego 32 (Over 45.5)
2009 - New England 35 Tampa Bay 7 (Under 45)
2010 - San Francisco 24 Denver 16 (Under 41.5)
2011 - Chicago 24 Tampa Bay 18 (Under 44)

The 'under' is cashing at an 80% (4-1) clip in these games and you could point to travel or even the dreary overcast weather in London. Either way you slice it, the numbers don't lie. For this week's matchup, the total opened at 46 ½ and jumped to 47 at a few outfits

New England is one of the few teams in the league that has an offense (34.8 PPG) that can come close to eclipsing the total by itself. However, the Rams' offense (18.6 PPG) has been very inconsistent this season but they'll be facing a Patriots' defense (23.3 PPG) that has been suspect at times. Does a bad offense score on a bad defense?

The Patriots have seen the 'over' cash in four straight games after their first two went 'under.' St. Louis has seen the 'under' go 4-3 but that number should easily be 5-2 if it wasn't for the aforementioned "Bad Beat" above.

Divisional Battles

Indianapolis at Tennessee: This total (47) is clearly based on the Titans' defense, which has allowed an average of 34 PPG this season. It's hard to see Indianapolis getting to that number, considering it's only scored a combined 30 points in two road contests this season. Tennessee's offense has played better with Matt Hasselbeck at QB, scoring 26 and 35 points the last two weeks. Despite the results this season, the 'under' has gone 6-1 in the last seven encounters between this pair.

Miami at N.Y. Jets: New York stopped Miami 23-20 in Week 3 and the even though the game went 'over' (40.5), it was helped with some key turnovers and the extra session. The rematch has a total in the same neighborhood and you could argue either way. All of the Dolphins' games could have gone 'under' if it wasn't for some crazy second-half outbursts, including the loss to the Jets. New York has seen the 'over' go 4-3 and even though the team has put 35 and 26 points the last two weeks, this isn't a run 'n shoot squad. With a Hurricane approaching the East Coast this weekend, keep an eye on the weather reports.

Oakland at Kansas City: Seven of the last eight in this series has gone 'under' and it could be eight of nine come Sunday. With Brady Quinn at quarterback, the Chiefs haven't been able to do anything but a week of rest could change that and the Raiders' defense (28.5 PPG) is far from good. Kansas City doesn't have a great defense (30.5 PPG) either but Oakland's offense has looked sluggish on the road (13 PPG).

N.Y. Giants at Dallas: Seems like a high number (47 ½) here, considering the Giants (5-2) and Cowboys (4-2) have solid marks to the 'under.' In the Week 1 opener, Dallas won 24-17 on the road. That number closed at 45 ½ and now it's a little higher, which makes you wonder why? Dallas has scored 16 and 18 in two home games and New York has allowed a total of 29 points in three road games. Certainly hard to argue an 'over' play when you look at the matchup on paper but the line could have you scratching your head. Also, don't forget the Cowboys' defense lost LB Sean Lee (toe) for the season and that's tough to overcome.

San Francisco at Arizona: This is the lowest total on the board (37 ½) and you would expect the number to go up a little since it's a MNF battle. However, Arizona (6-1) and San Francisco (4-2) have both leaned to the 'under' this season and it's hard to argue otherwise. They both have great defensive units and inconsistent attacks, which is the perfect combination for an 'under.' The 'under' has gone 4-2 in the last six meetings.

Line Moves

The smart money went 3-0 with their total moves in Week 7. Below are the Week 8 totals that have been adjusted by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS as of Friday.

San Diego at Cleveland: Line opened at 45 ½ and dropped to 44
Atlanta at Philadelphia: Line opened at 46 ½ and dropped to 45
Carolina at Chicago: Line opened at 45 and dropped to 43

Under the Lights

After watching the 'over' go 3-0 in Week 6, the 'under' came back in Week 7 with a 3-0 record. Overall, the 'under' stands at 15-8 (65%) on the season, which includes the outcome between Tampa Bay and Minnesota (36-17) on Thursday. Gamblers might want to make a note that with the Bucs' outright win, the underdog has covered six straight in the mid-week matchup.

Fearless Predictions

Caught a couple breaks last week and produced a 2-0 record in the Best Bets but lost the Team Total on the Jets. Guess the Patriots' defense is that bad. The Three-Team teaser cashed and gave us a profit of $190 for the week and $320 on the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!

Best Over: N.Y. Giants-Dallas 47

Best Under: New England-St. Louis 47

Best Team Total: Under 20 ½ Oakland

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 38 N.Y. Giants-Dallas
Under 51 Oakland-Kansas City
Under 54.5 Jacksonville-Green Bay

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Week 8 Tips

October 26, 2012

Heading into Week 8 of the NFL season, home favorites of 3 ½ points or less own a dreadful 8-18 ATS record. Five teams are in that situation this week, including three clubs that are hosting division opponents. Home 'chalk' laying 3 ½ points or fewer have covered just two of eight times this season against division foes, while the 'under' has cashed six times. We'll take a look at these five contests with short home favorites, starting with an AFC South battle as two teams attempt to grab their fourth victory of the season.

Colts at Titans (-3 ½, 47) - 1:00 PM EST

Tennessee is favored for the first time this season following consecutive victories over Pittsburgh and Buffalo. The Titans try to reach the .500 mark with a win over the Colts, who knocked off the hapless Browns last week, 17-13. Both teams are playing their second divisional contest, as Tennessee was trampled at Houston in Week 4, while Indianapolis lost at home to Jacksonville in Week 3.

The Titans rallied for wins over the Steelers (26-23) and Bills (35-34), while posting a 3-1 SU/ATS record against teams currently at .500 or below. Tennessee cashed just two of six times in Mike Munchak's first season as a home favorite, but one of those victories came over Indianapolis last October. Due to Tennessee's porous defense, the Titans have hit the 'over' in five of six games, while allowing 30 points or more five times.

The Colts have failed to win consecutive games this season, coming off their third victory against the Browns last week as a short favorite. Indianapolis is riding a 10-game losing streak away from Lucas Oil Stadium dating back to last season, including an 0-5 ATS run as a single-digit underdog. The home team has won six of the previous eight meetings in the series, but a majority of these games did have Peyton Manning under center for the Colts.

Falcons at Eagles (-3, 45) - 1:00 PM EST

The final undefeated team in the NFL tries to move to 7-0 with a victory on Sunday as Atlanta heads to Philadelphia. Andy Reid's club is in a prime spot this week coming off the bye, as the Eagles own a 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS record the last 10 seasons in this situation. Philadelphia will try to bounce back after throwing away a 10-point lead in an overtime defeat to Detroit two weeks ago.

The Eagles have cashed only two of six games this season, including a 1-4 ATS record in the favorite role. The offense isn't anywhere close to hitting its stride right now, as Philadelphia has scored 19 points or less in four of six contests. Philadelphia has won each of the last four meetings at Lincoln Financial Field dating back to 2005.

The Falcons are also off the bye week, but Mike Smith's team has escaped some dicey situations the last three games. Atlanta overcame second-half deficits in victories over Carolina, Washington, and Oakland, while putting together the best start in franchise history at 6-0. In their time as an underdog this season, the Falcons dominated the Chargers in Week 3 as three-point 'dogs, 27-3. The Falcons have won three of four games off the bye in Smith's tenure with the lone defeat coming at Philadelphia in 2008.

Seahawks at Lions (-2 ½, 43) - 1:00 PM EST

Seattle hasn't lost a home game yet this season (3-0), but Pete Carroll's club will try to improve on a 1-3 record away from CenturyLink Field. All three of Seattle's defeats came within the NFC West, including a 13-6 setback at San Francisco last Thursday as 7 ½-point underdogs. The Seahawks travel at least two time zones for the third time in five weeks, as they land in Detroit to battle a Lions' club coming off a Monday night loss at Chicago.

The Lions managed a Wild Card spot last season, but Jim Schwartz's team has work to do if they want a return trip to the playoffs. Detroit is just 2-4 through six games, including an 0-2 mark inside the NFC North. The Lions will try to bust through as a favorite for the first time this season following non-covers against the Rams, Titans, and Vikings.

The Seahawks have rolled when receiving points this season by cashing in all five opportunities as an underdog. Seattle's defense is the main reason for this success, allowing 13 points or less in four of five games in the underdog role. The Seahawks are making their third trip to Ford Field, which includes the loss in Super Bowl XL to the Steelers, but many members of that team are now off the roster.

Dolphins at Jets (-2 ½, 40 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

New York sat two minutes away from building a 3-0 record in the AFC East, but the Patriots kicked the game-tying field goal then the game-winner in overtime to stun the Jets, 29-26. The Jets did manage to cover as 11-point underdogs, their third consecutive ATS victory. The Dolphins travel to Met Life Stadium, as weather could be an issue with Hurricane Sandy making its way up the East Coast.

Miami returns from the bye week following consecutive victories over Cincinnati and St. Louis, while attempting to avenge an overtime setback to the Jets in Week 3 as short home 'dogs, 23-20. Joe Philbin's squad owns a 3-1 ATS record as a single-digit underdog, as the Dolphins seek their fourth road win over the Jets in the last five tries. In spite of the Dolphins going 3-3 to the 'under,' the argument can be made that the 'under' could have at least two more times if not for late scores to force overtime.

The Jets have exploded in home victories over the Bills and Colts, scoring 83 points in those two routs. New York's schedule hasn't been kind to them with losses already to San Francisco and Houston at home, but the Jets are 3-0 SU/ATS in the favorite role. Three of the next four games for the Jets following the bye week come against the NFC West, but the Jets head into this week with a 1-3 SU/ATS at home off a division loss in Rex Ryan's tenure.

Raiders at Chiefs (-1 ½, 42) - 4:05 PM EST

These old AFL rivals have hit the skids this season, combining for a 3-9 record, while all three of the wins came when trailing in the fourth quarter. Oakland stunned Jacksonville last Sunday in overtime, rallying from a 14-point deficit to beat the Jaguars, 26-23, but the Raiders failed to cover as six-point 'chalk.' The Chiefs have plenty of problems, as Romeo Crennel turns to former Notre Dame standout Brady Quinn to right the ship at quarterback.

Kansas City should be fortunate it has even one victory this season, overcoming a 24-6 deficit in a 27-24 overtime triumph at New Orleans in Week 3 as nine-point 'dogs. Since that win, the Chiefs have scored 36 total points in losses to the Chargers, Ravens, and Buccaneers. The Chiefs are favored for the first time since Week 16 of last season when Kansas City was tripped up by Oakland as three-point favorites, 16-13. Since 2008, the Chiefs have put together a dreadful 3-10 ATS record when laying points at Arrowhead Stadium.

The road team owns this series over the last few seasons, as the Raiders have won five consecutive trips to Western Missouri. Oakland is averaging just 13 points per game in three away losses, but managed a cover as nine-point 'dogs in a three-point loss at Atlanta two weeks ago. The Silver and Black doesn't mess around against division foes on the highway, compiling an 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS record since 2009, with the lone ATS defeat coming at Denver in Week 4.

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Gridiron Angles - Week 8

October 27, 2012

NFL ATS TREND:

-- The Raiders are 0-10 ATS (-10.9 ppg) since December 30, 2001 after a game as at least a three-point favorite where they trailed by at least a TD.

NFL OU TREND:

-- The Rams are 0-13 OU (11.4 ppg) since 2000 after a game where they punted no more than two times and recorded at least three sacks.

NCAA ATS PLAY ON TREND:

-- Florida is 12-0 ATS (10.2 ppg) since 1994 when they covered by more than 19 last game while allowing less than 13 points and aren’t a favorite of 40 or more points.

NCAA ATS PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- Tulane is 0-12 ATS (-16.5 ppg) since October 2003 past game two as between a 5-pt favorite and 15-pt dog, when they won by a TD or less or lost by four or less last game.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:

-- When facing a team which allowed 35+ points last game and less than 14 points two games ago, teams are 114-86-6 ATS (57.0%). Active with Oakland playing Kansas City.

NFL BIBLE TREND OF THE WEEK:

-- The Packers are 19-0 ATS (+13.7 ppg) since October 1994 when they are off a game in which they passed for at least 325 yards and punted fewer than four times.

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NFL Week 8 Preview: Redskins at Steelers

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (3-4)

at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (3-3)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Pittsburgh -4.5, Total: 47.5

The Steelers try to win two straight games for the first time all season when they host the Redskins on Sunday.

Robert Griffin III gets another major test. The Steelers match up fairly well with RG3, as their zone blitz scheme will allow linebackers and safeties to more effectively spy on Griffin. Their pass rush was much improved with OLBs James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley healthy and back in the lineup. S Troy Polamalu (calf) will be out for this game though. The ‘Skins continue to get burned by their atrocious defense, specifically the secondary. They’re allowing 328.4 passing yards per game (no team has ever allowed 300+ over a full season) and surrendered a 77-yard TD pass with 1:13 left in a loss to the Giants last week.

Can the Redskins pull off the big road upset? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Griffin ranks third in the NFL in passer rating (101.8), but he's thrown just 3 TD and 2 INT in the past four games. He will not have the services of starting TE Fred Davis, who is out for the season with a ruptured Achilles' tendon, and top WR Pierre Garcon, who is out indefinitely with a foot injury. TE Logan Paulsen led the team with 76 receiving yards in last week's loss to the Giants, followed closely by WRs Leonard Hankerson (70 rec yds) and Santana Moss (67 rec yds, 2 TD). One player who has been rock-solid all season is rookie RB Alfred Morris (658 rush yds, 3rd in NFL). He's rushed for more than 110 yards in three of the past four games, including 120 in New York last week. However, the Steelers have allowed only one team to reach 100 rushing yards all season (Oakland in Week 3). Defensively, Washington has allowed at least 293 passing yards in every game and 325+ yards in each of the past three contests. On the bright side, its run defense has been stingy all season, allowing just 85 rushing YPG (7th in NFL). But it could be missing top LB London Fletcher, who is questionable with a hamstring injury. The Redskins continue to make big plays though, with 16 forced turnovers in their seven games.

Roethlisberger ranks fifth in the NFL in passer rating (98.6) and has won 11 of his past 12 home starts dating back to last season. He and top WR Mike Wallace still don't seem to be on the same page. Despite 27 targets over the past three weeks, Wallace has just 163 receiving yards, with more than half of that (82) coming from one catch. WR teammate Antonio Brown has been much more consistent, catching seven passes in four of the past five games. With RBs Rashard Mendenhall (Achilles, doubtful) and Isaac Redman (ankle, questionable) both injured, Jonathan Dwyer will get the start at running back. He had a huge game in Cincinnati last Sunday night, rumbling for 122 yards on just 17 carries (7.2 YPC). Pittsburgh ranks second in the NFL in passing defense (185 YPG), but could be missing another safety in addition to Polamalu, as Will Allen is nursing an ankle injury. The Steelers have forced multiple turnovers in a game just once all season, as their seven takeaways is tied for the fifth-fewest in the NFL.

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NFL Week 8 Preview: Falcons at Eagles

ATLANTA FALCONS (6-0)

at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (3-3)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -3, Total: 45

Atlanta tries to remain the NFL's lone unbeaten team when it flies north to Philadelphia on Sunday.

Both these squads are coming off a bye week. The Eagles are desperately trying to right their ship, and they fired defensive coordinator Juan Castillo during the off week. On the other side of the ball, the Philly is still trying to rectify Michael Vick’s turnover problems (NFC-high 13 giveaways) and poor offensive line play. The Falcons have actually been better on the road this year, where they’re 3-0 SU and ATS. They will be matching up against a very good Eagles pass defense that is allowing the lowest completion percentage in the NFL (52.7%). Falcons QB Matt Ryan did not look sharp in their last game, a home win over Oakland, throwing three interceptions.

Will the Falcons finally lose a game? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Ryan ranks fourth in the NFL in passer rating (98.8) and sixth in passing yards (293 YPG), throwing 14 TD and 6 INT. He had an eventful day last year against the Eagles, completing 17-of-28 passes for 195 yards, a career-high-tying 4 TD and 2 INT. Ryan has done a phenomenal job using his top three receivers who each have 4 TD catches for the season, WR Roddy White (553 rec yds), TE Tony Gonzalez (430 rec yds) and WR Julio Jones (376 rec yds). The two wideouts had just 52 combined yards in last year's meeting with Philly, but Gonzalez caught seven passes for 83 yards and 2 TD. The Falcons running game has been dreadful in 2012, with the fourth-fewest rushing yards in the NFL (87 rush YPG). Leading rusher Michael Turner has just 100 rushing yards on 29 carries (3.4 YPC) in the past two games. However, Turner gained 146 total yards with the game-winning touchdown in the fourth quarter of last year's win over Philly. Defensively, the potential absence of CB Asante Samuel (foot), who played with the Eagles last year, could really hurt Atlanta's 12th-ranked pass defense going up against a talented receiving corps. The Falcons will also have a hard time stopping LeSean McCoy on the ground, considering they allow the fifth-most rushing yards in the NFL (144 rush YPG). Atlanta is adept at creating turnovers though, as its 17 takeaways rank fourth in the NFL.

The Eagles are an incredible 13-0 SU coming off a bye week under Andy Reid. Vick started against his old team for the first time last year, but left the game in the third quarter after suffering a concussion from a big hit. He finished that matchup 19-for-28 for 242 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT, while adding 25 rushing yards on six carries. Like most players, Vick is much more comfortable at home, completing 65% of his passes for 923 yards, 4 TD and 4 INT, plus another 142 yards on the ground in three games in Philly. Considering how poorly Atlanta defends the run, Vick will probably use his legs much more than he did last year. That also means a heavy dose of LeSean McCoy, who gained 116 total yards with a pair of second-half touchdown runs against the Falcons last year. McCoy had a horrible game before the bye week, gaining just 22 yards on 14 carries, plus 26 yards on seven catches. He has been playing on an injured ankle, and some of his offensive linemen have also been banged up, but the whole group will be healthier coming off the bye. Despite the firing of Castillo, and subsequent promotion of secondary coach Todd Bowles, the Eagles defense hasn't been terrible, ranking 15th in passing yards (226 YPG) and 14th against the run (105 YPG). The biggest problem has been the lack of turnovers, as Philly has just two takeaways in the past four games. Some of that also stems from a weak pass rush that has tallied just seven sacks all year.

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NFL Week 8 Preview: Giants at Cowboys

NEW YORK GIANTS (5-2)

at DALLAS COWBOYS (3-3)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -2, Total: 47.5

The Giants seek a fourth straight victory when they roll into Dallas to face a Cowboys team looking to earn the series sweep.

The Giants are also looking for a fourth straight win, SU and ATS, in Big D. When these teams met in New Jersey in the season opener, Dallas was able to take advantage of an injury-ravaged Giants secondary and sloppy play in New York’s passing game en route to a 24-17 upset win. But QB Eli Manning has been very good in his past three victorious trips to Dallas, throwing for 354.3 yards per game and eight touchdowns. Two of the Giants’ three wins in those games were on points scored in the final minute, when Manning seems to shine and the Cowboys seem to consistently fall apart.

Can the Cowboys complete the season sweep of New York on Sunday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Manning leads the NFL with 2,109 passing yards, throwing 12 TD and 7 INT in his seven games this year. He has also thrown for 2,710 yards and 21 touchdowns in his past 10 games versus Dallas. WR Hakeem Nicks, whose knee finally looks healthy, has loved playing at Cowboys Stadium with 17 catches for 271 yards and 2 TD in two career visits to Big D. WR Victor Cruz, whose seven touchdown receptions are tied atop the NFL, ranks third in the league in receptions (50) and fifth in receiving yards (627). While the passing attack is in good shape, the ground game might have some issues this week with Ahmad Bradshaw bothered by a sore foot. On defense, New York's pass rush is starting to come around. After tallying just eight sacks in the first five games, the G-Men have recorded nine sacks over the past two contests. The Giants are below average both in rushing defense (126 YPG, 23rd in NFL) and passing defense (253 YPG, 21st in NFL), but they've been able to prevail in three straight games by forcing 10 turnovers during the win streak.

Like Manning, Dallas QB Tony Romo has also been outstanding in this series, throwing for 2,512 yards, 25 TD and just 8 INT in 10 meetings with New York since 2007. Although he has more interceptions (9) than touchdown passes (8) this season, he ranks third in the NFL in completion percentage (67.9%), including a 70.8% clip in his past three games. He's able to remain so accurate because he has done a great job spreading the football out among his top four targets, WRs Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Kevin Ogletree, as well as TE Jason Witten. Austin has 4 TD in six career meetings with New York, and Bryant, who is expected to play despite last week's head injury, has 18 catches for 363 yards (20.2 average) and 4 TD in five career games versus the G-Men. With starting RB DeMarco Murray (foot) still out, Felix Jones will get the bulk of the carries. Although he's been bothered by a knee injury, Jones has still managed to gain 179 total yards over the past two weeks. Dallas ranks third in the NFL in passing defense (187 YPG) and has held its past four opponents to 91.5 rushing YPG on 3.8 yards per carry. The Cowboys need to improve in the takeaway department though, forcing just six turnovers in six games this season.

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NFL Week 8 Preview: Saints at Broncos

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (2-4)

at DENVER BRONCOS (3-3)


Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Denver -6, Total: 55.5

The surging Saints aim for a third straight victory when they travel to the Rocky Mountains to take on Denver Sunday night.

A couple of future Hall of Famer quarterbacks, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning, will get a chance to pick apart weak defenses in this one. The last time these two legendary QBs met was in Super Bowl XLIV won by the Saints. The Broncos have been an absurdly slow-starting team this year, only to be bailed out by Manning. The Saints, for all their issues, have performed well in their past two road games, missing a last-second field goal in a one-point loss at Green Bay, and holding on to beat Tampa last week. They’ve covered in three straight games despite the fact that their defense is allowing 30.3 PPG.

Can the Saints keep their win streak intact? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

New Orleans, which will be playing its first game under interim head coach Joe Vitt, leads the NFL in passing offense with 335 YPG. Brees has been outstanding in his past three games, completing 67% of his throws for 1,193 yards, 11 TD and 2 INT (115.2 rating). Five of those TD passes have gone to WR Marques Colston, who has 25 catches and 357 yards over this three-game span. Despite the efficiency through the air, the Saints rank last in the league in rushing offense (76 YPG). They have reached 90 rushing yards in a game just once all season, and have just 66 rushing YPG on 3.1 yards per carry in the past four contests. Although New Orleans' rushing defense has allowed the second-most rushing yards in the league (161 YPG), it has been much stronger during the three-game ATS win streak, holding opponents to 106 rushing YPG. The same can't be said for the passing defense though, having allowed the third-most yards in the NFL (305 YPG), including a whopping 348 passing YPG in the past three games. The Saints have done a great job protecting the football recently though, sporting a +4 turnover margin in the past four contests.

Manning ranks second in the NFL in passer rating (105.0), and has thrown 11 TD and just 1 INT during four straight 300-yard passing performances. He brought his team back from a 24-0 deficit in the last game in San Diego, throwing three second-half touchdown passes to three different players. The Broncos have outscored opponents by 73 points in the fourth quarter this season. Although the Broncos have the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL (291 YPG), the ground game has been held in check for the most part, averaging just 94 YPG (23rd in NFL). Top RB Willis McGahee has not gained 60 yards on the ground in three of his past four games. Denver's defense has been pretty solid this year though, ranking 10th in the NFL by allowing just 331 total YPG. The Broncos have held four opponents to 90 rushing yards or less, and they were able to force more turnovers in the last game (six) than they had in the previous five contests (four).

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NFL Week 8 Preview: 49ers at Cardinals

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (5-2)

at ARIZONA CARDINALS (4-3)


Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -7, Total: 38

The Cardinals try to stop a three-game losing skid when they host the 49ers on Monday night.

San Francisco has a chance to open up a big lead in the NFC West. The Niners are 2-1 SU and ATS on the road this year, with impressive wins over Green Bay and the Jets. But last December in the desert, QB John Skelton came in for an injured Kevin Kolb in the first quarter and led Arizona to a 21-19 comeback victory with three TD passes. Kolb is again hurt, and Skelton threw for 262 yards in a 21-14 loss at Minnesota last week. The Niners won an ugly one over Seattle last Thursday, 13-6, and will have the extra rest going into this game. Their running game had a big second half, finishing with 175 yards against an elite Seahawks defense, and the final spread would have been more than seven points had Alex Smith not been intercepted in the end zone in the fourth quarter.

Will the Cardinals finally get their first win in October? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Smith has won four of his past five starts versus Arizona despite pedestrian numbers: 51% completions, 5.8 YPA, 6 TD, 3 INT. He's been shaky in the past two weeks, passing for just 340 yards (6.4 YPA) with 1 TD and 4 INT. A sprained finger on his throwing hand has contributed greatly to his struggles. Another injury concern for the 49ers is leading rusher Frank Gore, who suffered bruised ribs in the last game against Seattle. The bye week helped him heal though, and he is expected to start. That's bad news for Arizona considering Gore has gained 913 total yards (114 per game) with 7 TD in the past eight meetings with the Cardinals. Two other key injuries are WR Mario Manningham (shoulder) and LB Patrick Willis (ankle), but the bye week has also helped their healing process and both are expected to play on Monday. Willis is the anchor to this excellent defense that leads the NFL in both total yards allowed (272 YPG) and passing yards allowed (173 YPG), while ranking second in scoring defense (14.3 PPG). In the past five meetings with Arizona, the Niners have allowed just 50 total points while forcing 19 turnovers (3.8 per game).

Skelton was a turnover machine against San Francisco last year, throwing five interceptions in just 47 pass attempts over two games. However, he fared pretty well in his first full game of 2012 last week, completing 25-of-36 passes for 262 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT against the Vikings. The one negative was that he took seven sacks. All-Pro WR Larry Fitzgerald has had a down season for his standards (66 rec. YPG, 3 TD), but he has loved facing San Francisco in his career, catching 93 passes for 1,296 yards and 11 TD in 16 meetings. Although Arizona ranks 27th in the NFL in rushing offense (89 YPG), it has done a better job on the ground in the past two weeks with 308 yards on 56 carries (5.5 YPC). LaRod Stephens-Howling had 20 carries for 104 yards in last week's loss, and will be the main ball carrier ahead of William Powell. Arizona ranks fourth in the NFL in scoring defense (16.9 PPG) and seventh in total defense (312 YPG). The Cardinals produced 16 sacks during their four-game win streak to start the year, but have just six sacks during their three-game skid. They also have some key injuries on defense, including DT Darnell Dockett (hamstring), LB Reggie Walker (head), CB Greg Toler (hamstring) and S James Sanders (knee), who are all questionable. S Kerry Rhodes (back) is out indefinitely.

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NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 8

Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers (-14.5, 45.5)

Both the Green Bay Packers and Jacksonville Jaguars will be without a key player when they meet at Lambeau Field. Green Bay will be without S Charles Woodson. The former NFL Defensive Player of the Year suffered a broken left clavicle in last week's 30-20 triumph at St. Louis and is expected to miss at least six weeks. The Jaguars, who have lost three in a row, will not have Maurice Jones-Drew in the lineup after the running back sprained his left foot on the first play of last Sunday's 26-23 overtime loss at Oakland and is out indefinitely. The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-1, 40.5)

The Dolphins suffered an overtime loss at home to the Jets last month after carrying a seven-point lead into the fourth quarter and missed a pair of field goals, including the game-winner in the extra session. Miami's last four games have all been decided by four points or fewer, including wins at Cincinnati (17-13) and against St. Louis (17-14) entering its bye. The Jets have been hit-or-miss at home, scoring one offensive TD in back-to-back losses to San Francisco and Houston while rolling up a combined 83 points in wins over Buffalo and Indianapolis. The Dolphins have played under the total in their last seven October games.

San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns (3, 44)

The Chargers were accused of using Stickum - a banned substance - during their 35-24 loss to Denver on Oct. 15 and continue to be investigated by the NFL. San Diego also had extra time to think about how they blew a 24-0 halftime lead against the Broncos. Browns RB Trent Richardson had eight yards on eight carries last week against the Colts before being benched at halftime as he tried to play with a rib cartilage injury. Richardson said he intends to be ready for Sunday. The under is 7-1 in Cleveland’s last eight home games.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 47)

The Titans have been a sieve on defense, allowing a league-worst 238 points, but they eked out a 35-34 victory over the Buffalo Bills last week on Matt Hasselbeck's fourth-down touchdown pass with 63 seconds to play. Chris Johnson broke out of his season-long funk, rushing for 195 yards and two touchdowns in the victory over Buffalo. Johnson had been held to 24 yards or fewer in four of the team's first five games. The Colts have won six of the last seven meetings with Tennessee, but all but one of those victories came with Peyton Manning under center. The Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.

New England Patriots at St. Louis Rams (7, 47)

The Rams lost a little zip in their offensive attack when receiver Danny Amendola went down with a collarbone injury in Week 5. Since then, QB Sam Bradford has just one TD pass and the Rams have lost two straight. Four teams have logged season highs in yards gained against New England, which has allowed an average of 338 yards through the air in its last five games. Remember, this game is being played at Wembley Stadium in London, England taking away home advantage for either team. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 44.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles had the bye week to get acquainted with a new defensive coordinator. Todd Bowles’ first test comes when the Eagles host the last unbeaten team in the NFL, the Atlanta Falcons. Head coach Andy Reid is 13-0 after a bye week, the longest winning streak since bye weeks were introduced. But this time he has had to oversee a change on the defensive side of the ball after firing Juan Castillo and promoting Bowles from the secondary.

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-9, 43)

Chicago tops the NFL with a plus-13 turnover margin and has allowed a league-best 13 points per game, which doesn't bode well for Carolina and second-year QB Cam Newton. The Panthers have lost four straight and have been plagued by turnovers all season - their minus-6 turnover margin ranks 26th in the league. The bad news keeps coming for Carolina, which placed CB Chris Gamble (torn labrum) and LB Jon Beason (knee, shoulder) on injured reserve this week. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five October games.

Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-1, 43)

The Seahawks pulled off an upset of the New England Patriots in Week 6 but fell flat at San Francisco last Sunday, scoring a season-low six points. Quarterback Russell Wilson has two touchdowns, seven interceptions and a 58.9 completion percentage in four road games this season. Detroit turned the ball over three times in the red zone in Monday’s 13-7 loss at Chicago and did not find the end zone until late in the fourth quarter. The Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.

Washington Redskins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5, 47)

Pittsburgh, which is coming off its first road win, has won eight straight inter-conference games and Ben Roethlisberger is 14-1 at home against NFC opponents. And rookie QBs are 1-14 against Dick LeBeau’s intricate zone-blitz schemes since the 75-year-old returned to Pittsburgh in 2004. Redskins TE Fred Davis, who leads the team with 24 receptions, tore his Achilles' tendon in last week’s loss to the Giants. The Redskins filled the void Monday by re-signing eight-year veteran TE Chris Cooley, who was released in the offseason. The teams have played under the total in their last four meetings.

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-1, 42.5)

Brady Quinn will make his second straight start at QB - and first since coach Romeo Crennel appointed him the primary option for the foreseeable future – when the Chiefs seek to end a three-game losing streak against the visiting Oakland Raiders. The Raiders, 0-3 on the road this season, overcame three turnovers and a 20-6 deficit to beat Jacksonville last week. Oakland is 31st in the league in rushing (76.8 ypg) despite having one of the most electrifying tailbacks in the league in Darren McFadden. Run DMC is only averaging 2.6 yards per carry over the last three games. The teams have played under the total in 12 of their last 14 meetings.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (1, 47.5)

Eli Manning pulled off his 24th career fourth-quarter comeback in a win over Washington last Sunday but will be taking on a Cowboys secondary that is the strength of the defense. Dallas knocked off New York in the season opener, 24-17, but may without starting RB DeMarco Murray, who has missed practice this week with a sprained foot. Felix Jones will start if Murray can't suit up. Phillip Tanner and Lance Dunbar could also see carries for the Cowboys. Dallas is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games.

New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos (-6, 55.5)

The Saints have won two straight after an 0-4 start and welcome back interim coach Joe Vitt, who finished serving a suspension for his role in Bountygate. The Broncos enjoyed their bye week following a 35-24 comeback victory at San Diego on Oct. 15 and will try to take advantage of the Saints' NFL-worst defense which has allowed 2,793 yards through six games, the most in NFL history since at least 1950. Denver CB Tracy Porter, who played four seasons in New Orleans (2008-11), missed the San Diego game after experiencing light-headedness and a rapid heartbeat - symptoms he felt prior to a seizure in August - but could be cleared to play Sunday. The over is 10-1 in the Saints’ last 11 games overall.

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Hilton Super Contest

This is how the handicappers placed their wagers on:

SuperContest Week 8

MIN 18
TB 107

NE 109
STL 68

TEN 79
IND 129

GB 148
JAX 32

SD 206
CLE 83

PHI 303
ATL 123

DET 158
SEA 148

NYJ 131
MIA 216

CHI 73
CAR 144

PIT 81
WAS 220

KC 94
OAK 103

NYG 295
DAL 100

DEN 132
NO 172

SF 95
ARI 133

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NFL Best Bets:

Sunday, October 28

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Jacksonville - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +14.5 500
Green Bay - Over 45.5 500

Miami - 1:00 PM ET Miami +1 500
N.Y. Jets - Under 38.5 500

San Diego - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland +3 500
Cleveland - Over 41 500

Indianapolis - 1:00 PM ET Tennessee -3.5 500
Tennessee - Over 46.5 500

New England - 1:00 PM ET St. Louis +7.5 500
St. Louis - Over 46 500

Atlanta - 1:00 PM ET Atlanta +3 500 NFC GOM
Philadelphia - Under 41.5 500

Carolina - 1:00 PM ET Carolina +8.5 500
Chicago - Under 42 500

Seattle - 1:00 PM ET Seattle +2.5 500
Detroit - Under 41.5 500

Washington - 1:00 PM ET Washington +4 500
Pittsburgh - Over 44 500

Oakland - 4:05 PM ET Oakland +1 500
Kansas City - Over 42.5 500

N.Y. Giants - 4:25 PM ET Dallas +1 500
Dallas - Over 48 500

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday Night NFL Best Bet:

New Orleans - 8:20 PM ET New Orleans +6.5 500

Denver - Under 54.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 8

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Tale of the tape: 49ers at Cardinals
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Offense

The 49ers put up 79 points in consecutive blowouts of the Jets and Bills, but they've scored just 16 points in their past two games. Quarterback Alex Smith's inconsistency has resurfaced with two straight lackluster efforts. Look for the 49ers to feed running back Frank Gore against a Cardinals defense that has been much better against the pass than the run.

The Cardinals won their first four games, but they've fallen flat the past three weeks with losses to St. Louis, Buffalo and Minnesota. Arizona has averaged just 11 points during the losing streak. John Skelton is expected to make his second straight start at quarterback. Skelton is 6-0 at home as a starter, including last year's win over the 49ers in which he had a career-best 106.5 rating. Injuries have decimated Arizona's offense, which is leaning on LaRod Stephens-Howling - who started the season as the third-string back - to carry the load.

Edge: 49ers


Defense

San Francisco leads the NFL in total defense (272.3 yards per game) and ranks second in scoring defense (14.3 points per game). The 49ers pass rush will look to take advantage of a Cardinals' line that has given up 35 sacks in seven games, including 29 in the last four, and is on pace for 80 sacks -the second-most in NFL history.

Arizona's pass rush has been strong, producing 22 sacks (third in the NFL), and getting pressure on Smith will be key to the Cardinals' success. The defense has yielded 331 rushing yards in the past two games, but surrendered only 14 points in each of those losses.

Edge: 49ers


Special teams

49ers punter Andy Lee earned NFC Special Teams Player of the Week honors, after pinning the Seahawks inside their own 20-yard line on four of five punts in the 13-6 victory last week.

The Arizona Cardinals should get a boost to their special teams squad with the return of Anthony Sherman (knee) and Reggie Walker (concussion). Return man Patrick Peterson leads the NFL in punt return yards -- 229 of them through seven games. But his average, 8.8 yards per return, puts him in the middle of the pack and his longest return this year is just 26 yards.

Edge: Cardinals


Word on the street

“When you think of the Cardinals you’re going to think of Larry Fitzgerald, obviously, And he’s one of the top receivers in our league, if not the best receiver in the league. Future Hall of Famer and justifiably so, and he’s a tough guy to handle. He’s big. He’s fast. He’s strong. He’s tough to tackle after he catches it. So, him in and of himself is a tough chore.” --49ers defensive coordinator Vic Fangio on Larry Fitzgerald.

"They're not giving me a chance, really, honestly, they're (the opposition) putting the ball close on the sidelines so they can ... kind of bottle me on the sideline and vise me in versus giving me the whole field to work with." --Peterson on why he hasn’t returned a punt or kick for a TD yet this season.

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NFL

Week 8

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Monday Night Football: 49ers at Cardinals
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San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (7.5, 38.5)

For the second consecutive week, the San Francisco 49ers will get a chance to make a primetime pitch to assert their command of the NFC West race when they travel to the desert to face the Arizona Cardinals on Monday night. The 49ers are coming off a 13-6 win over Seattle last Thursday that put them back atop the division standings alone, but they'll need to hand Arizona its fourth straight loss to remain there. The Cardinals won their first four games, but they've fallen flat the past three weeks with losses to St. Louis, Buffalo and Minnesota. Arizona has averaged just 11 points during the losing streak, and the offense is in for a challenge against a San Francisco team that leads the NFL in total defense (272.3 yards per game) and ranks second in scoring defense (14.3 points per game). Kevin Kolb (ribs) had not been ruled out as of Thursday, but John Skelton is expected to make his second straight start at quarterback for the Cardinals.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: San Francisco -7.5. O/U: 38.5.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (5-2): San Francisco usually knows what to expect from its dominant defense, but the offense has been a bit of an enigma. The 49ers put up 79 points in consecutive blowouts of the Jets and Bills, but they've scored just 16 points in their past two games. Quarterback Alex Smith's inconsistency has resurfaced with two straight lackluster efforts. Look for the 49ers to feed running back Frank Gore against a Cardinals defense that has been much better against the pass than the run.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (4-3): Injuries have decimated Arizona's offense, which is leaning on LaRod Stephens-Howling - who started the season as the third-string back - to carry the load. Stephens-Howling had a career-high 104 rushing yards and a touchdown last week, and the Cardinals will need another strong effort from him against a 49ers defense that is dominant against the pass. Arizona's pass rush has been strong, producing 22 sacks (third in the NFL), and getting pressure on Smith will be key to the Cardinals' success.

TRENDS:

* 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Under is 6-1 in Cardinals’ last seven games overall.
* Under is 4-1-1 in 49ers’ last six games overall.
* Cardinals are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The 49ers have won five of the past six meetings, but the Cardinals won the most recent one, 21-19 last December in Arizona, with three touchdown passes from Skelton.

2. San Francisco is 13-0 when Smith starts and has a rating of 100.0 or higher. He has won 19 of his past 24 starts.

3. Skelton is 6-0 at home as a starter, including last year's win over the 49ers in which he had a career-best 106.5 rating.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, October 29

Game Score Status Pick Amount

San Francisco - 8:30 PM ET Arizona +7 500

Arizona - Under 38.5 500