The Bum's October's College Football Best Bets !

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Florida Gators Await Gamecocks In The Swamp

South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida Gators College Football Betting Preview
Date: 10/20/2012, 3:30 p.m. (ET) CBS
Opening Lines: Florida -3, O/U 44

South Carolina Gamecocks: Steve Spurrier and the Gamecocks (6-1 straight up & against the spread) face their third consecutive top-10 opponent, and this time it's on the road in the Swamp against the No. 2 Gators. South Carolina demolished then-No. 5 Georgia at home two weeks ago to move into the top 5 itself, only to fall in a close 23-21 setback at LSU last week when the 'Cocks were 3-point road 'dogs. The Gamecocks are certainly popular among bettors with six-straight pointspread covers entering this matchup, and getting another this week will fall on the right shoulder of QB Connor Shaw along with Marcus Lattimore's two legs on the offensive side. LSU shut down SC's infantry last week, limiting Lattimore to just 35 yards on 13 totes. Even with the Tigers having one of their better games to beat the Gamecocks, South Carolina's defense still ranks 12th in yards allowed (296 ypg) and tied with Florida for fifth in fewest points allowed (12.3 per game). Spurrier's 'Cocks have won the last two meetings and covered the last three after Florida pretty much owned things for a while before that that.

Florida Gators: As mentioned, the Gators (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) can play some defense as well. Will Muschamp's club is ranked 13th in total yards allowed, just behind the Gamecocks, and probably had its best showing against Texas A&M's electric redshirt freshman Johnny Manziel who was held about 160 yards below his per-game average in a 20-17 Florida win and cover. Florida has since followed that up with four more SEC victories to take charge of a resurgent East Division within the conference. Mike Gillislee is the workhorse on the offensive side, averaging over 102 yard per game rushing (28th-most), while QB Jeff Driskell has proven to be a nice dual threat himself with over 300 yards rushing and a 140.0 QB rating. This game starts a 5-game stretch for Muschamps' squad during which four will be played at home and next week's game taking place nearby in Jacksonville for the annual World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party against Georgia. The Gators have won seven of their last eight at home

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Oregon at Arizona State

October 17, 2012

Thursday Night Pac-12 games have provided entertaining football this season and this week is the game many have been waiting for as Oregon heads to Arizona State. Oregon has been a national power in recent years but they have had close games with Arizona State the last two seasons. The Sun Devils look better than anyone expected so far this year and this will be the first big test for one of the top ranked teams in the nation. Take a look at this week’s Thursday match-up and the history between these teams.

Matchup: Oregon Ducks at Arizona State Sun Devils
Venue: Sun Devil Stadium, Tempe, Arizona
Date: Thursday, October, 18 2012
Time/TV: 9:00 PM ET – ESPN
Line: Oregon -8½, Over/Under 68½
Last Meeting: 2011, Oregon (-14) 41-27, at Oregon

Oregon sits in the #3 spot in the initial BCS standings, looking to return to the title game for the second time in three years. The Ducks have been dominant in their 6-0 start, outscoring foes 314-120 but the early schedule has been weak. This will be the first true road game of the season for the Ducks as they have played five home games and a neutral site game in Seattle. The toughest games on the schedule are still ahead as Oregon will head to USC in a few weeks as well as having to play Stanford and Oregon State in the final two games of the season.

Freshman quarterback Marcus Mariota was a question mark early in the year for the Ducks but he has performed admirably so far, completing nearly 68 percent of his passes and throwing for 15 touchdowns against five interceptions. His completion percentage has dropped below 62 percent in Pac-12 play however and this should be the toughest defense he has faced yet this season.

The Ducks have great weapons in the backfield led by senior running back Kenjon Barner, who already has over 700 yards rushing on the season. Sophomore De’Athony Thomas has received just 41 carries but he is posting 9.2 yards per rush and has also been the leading receiver on the team with 20 catches. Oregon has scored at least 42 points in every game this season and the 52.3 points per game average is even higher than the last two years.

Oregon is considered a more serious threat to run the table this season not because of the offense, but because of the defense. Oregon has allowed 20 points per game this season but over 30 percent of the scoring has come in the 4th quarter, after the Ducks have built big leads and reserves have entered the games. Oregon is allowing almost 360 yards per game but it has not been easy to run against the Ducks and the statistics are a bit misleading as no game has been very close.

The expectations for Arizona State this season were quite grounded. Dennis Erickson was released after four straight mediocre seasons following his 10-3 debut season in 2007. Expectations were high for Arizona State last year as many thought they could win the South division of the Pac-12 with USC on probation but after a 5-1 start the Sun Devils won just once the rest of the year. After a one-year stint in Pittsburgh Todd Graham abruptly left to take this position and the move was met with lukewarm national reactions. Only eight starters returned for the Sun Devils and a rebuilding year seemed in order but the early results have changed those goals.

Arizona throttled Illinois in the first FBS game of the season and then played very competitively at Missouri for the only loss of the year. In Pac-12 play the Sun Devils are perfect with a 3-0 start but the schedule features a brutal gauntlet the next four weeks. This season could easily spiral the other direction just like last year, making this the biggest game of the season.

The Sun Devils have received great play from sophomore quarterback Taylor Kelly so far this season as he has passed for 1,600 yards on over 68 percent completions so far this season. Kelly also is a threat on the ground and most impressively he has thrown just two interceptions in 164 pass attempts and he is yet to throw a pick at home this season. Early in the year freshman Michael Eubank also saw some snaps but Kelly has played well enough to firmly hold the starting job.

The Sun Devils would like to see more from the running game as a clear hierarchy in the backfield has not been established with three players getting significant carries in the backfield but the reason for the strong start this year has been defense. Arizona State has allowed just 14 points per game on the season and even lower numbers in conference games. Arizona State is holding foes to just 273 yards per game with great numbers against the pass. No one has illusions about holding Oregon to those types of numbers but the Sun Devils could disrupt the Ducks enough to have a chance to win this game and Oregon is a team that has not had to play in many tense situations of difficult environments this season.

Both teams were ranked when these teams met in Eugene last season and this should be a game where a lot is discovered about these squads and the potential for each team this season should become clearer. After a less enticing game last week on Thursday night with Arizona State eventually winning easily against Colorado the Pac-12 has a great showcase game this week to kick off the college football weekend.

Line Movement: Oregon opened as high as a 10-point favorite but this line has steadily dropped the last two days. The total briefly ticked up to 69½ but has settled back to 68½, where it opened.

Last Meeting: Arizona State was ranked #18 in the nation and Oregon was #9 when these teams met at a similar point in the season last year. LaMichael James did not play for Oregon in this game last year and it was evident early that this would be a back-and-forth high scoring affair even though Oregon had a fumble and a punt on its first two possessions. Arizona State scored first and carried a 14-7 lead into the 2nd quarter but by halftime Oregon had taken the lead 21-17. The Sun Devils showed some fight with a touchdown drive on the first possession of the 2nd half but things went downhill from there and Oregon had a 14-point lead by the first minute of the 4th quarter. Arizona State managed just a field goal on its final six possessions of the game as Oregon’s defense stepped up to take control of the game.

Series History: Oregon has won the last seven meetings in this series but they have a push and a loss ATS the last two years following five consecutive covers from 2005 to 2009. Going back to 1989 Oregon is 16-7 S/U and 13-10 ATS in this match-up but Arizona State won and covered in the seven years prior to that in the ‘80s. Oregon is just 1-3 ATS in the last four meetings when favored in Tempe but Oregon has posted big numbers in each of the last four trips there, averaging nearly 44 points per game.

Oregon Historical Trends: Oregon is 21-10 S/U with a winning ATS record in road games since 2006 and the Ducks won and covered in every true road game last season. Oregon is 9-6-1 ATS as a road favorite since 2008 and 20-13-1 ATS since 2001 in that role. Oregon is just 6-6-1 ATS in the last 13 games as a road favorite of more than a touchdown however. Oregon has not lost S/U in a conference road game since 2009, falling 51-42 at Stanford.

Arizona State Historical Trends: Arizona State is on a 15-7 ATS run in home games since 2009 and the Sun Devils have won and covered in all five instances as a home underdog in that span. Going further back Arizona State is on a 15-7-1 ATS run as a home underdog since 1995, though the Sun Devils are just 7-16 S/U in those games. Arizona State has not had a S/U home underdog win since 2003, beating Oregon 59-14 as a 2-point underdog.

There is an additional game Thursday night this week:

Houston at SMU (FSN-Regional, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Line: Houston -5½, Over/Under 60

After an ugly 0-3 start Houston has evened its record with three straight wins. The competition has been pretty light but the offense is gaining confidence and has posted at least 35 points in five straight games. SMU is 2-4 after inexplicably losing against Tulane last week. The Mustangs had a big yardage edge but could not overcome a big early deficit. SMU lost by 30 in this match-up last season with Houston nearly doubling the yardage for the Mustangs. Houston has put up some big numbers but the defense is highly suspect, allowing nearly 470 yards per game through a very weak schedule. SMU has had to play some stiff competition so a bounce back is possible hosting this primetime match-up. Last season Houston won 37-7 at home in this series as a 20-point favorite and has won six in a row in this series. Houston has struggled as a road favorite however going just 14-26-1 ATS since 1991.

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Midseason Report Cards

October 17, 2012

When the college football campaign reaches its midway point, we usually like to hand out "grades" to the teams for their efforts. Although such reviews are by nature subjective, they nonetheless can provide a useful barometer on how teams have performed, and, perhaps, what they're likely to do in the last half of the campaign. And an examination of the following "grades" could always help to uncover some useful info for the serious handicapper seeking to identify overachieving, and underachieving, point-spread performers.

We've been doing these midseason "report cards" for years, and those of you familiar with our annual mid-October exercise know we don't use these progress reports to grade teams in relation to one another. Rather, we have weigh how each team has performed against preseason expectations, with concessions for extraordinarily good, or similarly bad, performances.

And, as we've seen from past experience, point-spread marks (both good or bad) can often be a more-revealing element of these midseason check-ups than pure straight-up records. Consider some of the examples in the "A" category as of mid-October; we're not really saying that New Mexico or Western Kentucky is the equal to Alabama (after all, 'Bama did beat the Hilltoppers 35-0). But, when comparing their performances vs. preseason expectations, the achievements of the Lobos and WKU are no less impressive than the top-ranked Crimson Tide.

Plus, for handicapping purposes, remember that the Tops actually covered the number in their loss at Tuscaloosa, and New Mexico has been a better ally for bettors than Alabama, too. Thus, we've rewarded the Lobos with an "A" grade for their efforts, while saving the most-exceptional "A+" marks for Oregon State and Willie Taggart's pesky Hilltoppers from WKU (who, by the way, have now covered the spread an astounding 15 straight since last season!).

Keep in mind that these grades are subject to weekly review and can change quickly. We'll try to provide another update at or near the end of the regular season.

Following are the five traditional grading categories -A, B, C, D, & F, with "+" and "-" addendums on each level-and the teams we believe fit into those categories thru the games of last weekend.

A...Outstanding performance, or far beyond preseason expectations:

A+...Oregon State, Western Kentucky;

A...Alabama, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Florida, Kansas State, UL-Monroe, La Tech, New Mexico, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Oregon, Penn State, Rutgers, Texas A&M, Utah State;

A-...Arizona, Duke, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Ohio State, South Carolina, Texas Tech, Toledo, UCLA, West Virginia.

Notes...Some fluidity within these and all ranks, although we stand by our "A+" grades to the Beavers and Hilltoppers. Earlier in the season, the likes of Arizona, Duke, UCLA, and West Virginia would have received pure "A" marks, although each risks slipping into the "B" category soon. We'd be on the lookout for drop-offs in those locales, and perhaps Cincinnati and Notre Dame, in the upcoming weeks.

B...Above-average performance, or generally exceeding preseason expectations.

B+...Fresno State, Maryland, North Carolina, San Jose State, Temple, UAB;

B...Ball State, Boise State, Bowling Green, Clemson, Florida Atlantic, Florida State, Georgia, Iowa, Iowa State, UL-Lafayette, Louisville, Middle Tennessee, Minnesota, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Stanford, Texas State, Tulsa, UNLV, UTSA, Vanderbilt;

B-...East Carolina, North Carolina State, North Texas, Purdue, Wake Forest.

Notes...Cases can be made for "A" grades with some of these sides, as Fresno State, North Carolina, and even Maryland have proven pleasant surprises thus far. In the "B" group, it looks like Oklahoma is coming in a hurry, and the Sooners could soon be moving into "A" territory if they maintain the momentum from their last two outings, impressive wins over Texas Tech and Texas. Meanwhile, North Texas and recently-stumbling Purdue were the last cuts before "C" grades, which each could be receiving soon if respective form doesn't turn around.

C...Average performance; not much better or worse than initial expectations; or lack of consistency in efforts.

C+...Akron, Buffalo, Cal, Houston, LSU,, Navy, TCU, Troy, Wisconsin.

C...Air Force, Arkansas State, Baylor, BYU, Miami-Florida, Michigan, Nebraska, Nevada, Pittsburgh, Rice, San Diego State, South Alabama, Southern Cal, Tennessee, Washington, Western Michigan.

C-...Army, UConn, Florida International, Kansas, UMass, Memphis, Miami-Ohio, SMU, Texas, Washington State.

Notes...Moving up soon? Most of the "C+" teams could be ascending into the "B" category within the next week; keep an especially close eye on Cal, Houston, TCU, and Wisconsin, each appearing to hit stride after some indifferent efforts early in the season. We've just dropped a Texas into the "C-" after its gutless showing against Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl last week (more on the Longhorns in just a moment).

D...Below-average performance, or falling significantly short of preseason expectations, for any assortment of reasons.

D+...Michigan State, Utah; D...Arkansas, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Georgia Tech, Idaho, Missouri, New Mexico State, South Florida, Southern Miss, Syracuse, Tulane,, UTEP, Virginia Tech;

D-...Boston College, Colorado, Colorado State, Illinois, Kentucky, Virginia.

Notes...Michigan State has been dropping like a rock the past couple of weeks, as this supposed BCS contender has fallen upon hard times because it can't score. Not good. As for Arkansas, we are not quite ready to reward the Razorbacks for essentially one impressive effort at Auburn (we don't give too much credit for last week's lightning-shortened game vs. depleted Kentucky). Although the Razorbacks could be moving up soon, as might Southern Miss and perhaps Tulane. We were tempted to affix "F" grades to Colorado, Colorado State, Kentucky, and perhaps Virginia, but decided to show some mercy...at least for another week.

F...Failure, or not remotely approaching preseason expectations.

Auburn and Hawaii.

Notes...We think the "F" grades speaks for itself regarding these two. If we were a little more cold-hearted, a few of the "D-" teams might join these two. We won't have to give any benefit of the doubt in our next rankings near the end of the season.

Meanwhile, a quick update on the Coaching Hot Seat...

Sources in the SEC are telling us that Auburn head coach Gene Chizik might not have to wait until next year to sit on a hot seat at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Pressure is mounting on the Plains as Chizik's team appears to be spinning out of control, now 1-5 and with prospects of a bowl appearance growing more dim by the week.

Of course, it is no secret that Chizik and Auburn have struggled since Cam Newton left campus after the unbeaten, 2010 BCS title season, but the Tigers are now sub-.500 (9-10 straight up) since Newton's departure, and they're also just 6-13 against the spread over the past two seasons.

It is no secret that Chizik's head coaching career at Iowa State and Auburn has the big highlight of the Newton season and not much else; since his hire at Iowa State in 2007, Chizik's record is 36-34; take away the 2010 season with Newton, and it's 22-34, numbers that are now being mentioned rather frequently by angered Auburn alums and boosters.

Statistically, the offense is one of the worst in the country, and even a QB switch to jr. Clint Moseley (replacing struggling sophomore Kiehl Frazier) didn't pay dividends in last week's 41-20 loss at Ole Miss, the Rebels' first SEC win since 2010.

The Auburn offense has also seemed to miss crafty o.c. Gus Malzahn (although not as much as the Tigers have missed Newton), and having junked the old Malzahn spread, Auburn has regressed with new split-back looks out of pro-style sets preferred by new o.c. Scott Loeffler, hired from Temple after last season.

What to watch for at Auburn? The Tigers have a pair of gimmies left on their schedule with New Mexico State and Alabama A&M, but if they can't win this week at Vanderbilt, we're hard pressed to identify another win (besides NMSU & Alabama A&M) on the rest of the schedule. Should Chizik come in at 3-9 and winless in SEC play, sources say the chances increase that a buyout could be forged after this season, although most believe Chizik will probably get one more chance and be under a win-or-else edict next season. Loeffler's career as the Tiger offensive coordinator might also be short-lived, as many envision Chizik being forced to make staff changes if he wants to get another shot next season.

Meanwhile, at Texas, disgruntled Longhorns are wondering about the future of HC Mack Brown after another lopsided loss in the Red River shootout vs. Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl last Saturday. The 63-21 thrashing marked the third time Bob Stoops has dropped a 60+-point bomb on the Longhorns. And Mack, who not long ago had a stretch of four wins in five tries vs. the Sooners, has now lost three in a row vs. Texas' most-hated rival. Brown has also fallen to 5-9 against Stoops.

Media outlets in the Lone Star State have even started to print Mack's buyout price (reportedly $3.5 million), while others "in the loop" say that the disturbing downturn the program has endured since the 2009 BCS title game loss to Alabama is an indicator that Brown is not up to another rebuild project. Mack did rebuild a monster in Austin after his hire from North Carolina in 1998, but the past few seasons have been rough. Many sources also indicate that Brown was likely to have retired on top had the Longhorns beaten Bama in that 2009 BCS title game at the Rose Bowl, and his decision to remain on the sidelines has been a negative.

Of course, how events unfold over the next six weeks will determine what eventually happens at Auburn and Texas. For now, however, there's a possibility that two mega jobs could be opening up in the offseason.

As always, stay tuned.

[StarDust Bum]

ACC Report - Week 8

October 17, 2012

In Week 7, there was nothing that jumped off the board, and the worst thing you can do is bet just to bet. That's usually what the books want, because they'll win every time. Find restraint when it is needed, and maybe look elsewhere for your action. I decided to do some studying late in the week, and ended up having one of my better weeks of the season despite staying away from my most frequently wagered conference. Find yourself two or three conferences and stick to it. There is no shame in taking a break when it isn't there for you. Would you rather lose betting something you don't necessarily love because you just need the action? If you enjoy losing money, I'll send you my Pay Pal and you can just ship it to me.

Speaking of ACC play, I'll be taking in the North Carolina-Duke game at Wallace Wade Stadium this weekend, and looking forward to it. The two schools separated by about eight miles usually have heated battles in basketball, I am sure you have heard, but lately there hasn't been much of a rivalry on the gridiron. It's different in 2012.

Joe Williams's ACC Season Picks:
Period: 8/31/2012 to 10/17/2012
Pick Type: All Picks
Record: 15-7-0 ( 68.2% , +720)

PICK DETAILS
Week Record Total
Week 7 (Oct. 11-13) 0-0 - (+/-0)
Week 6 (Oct. 4-6) 2-1 Won (+90)
Week 5 (Sept. 27-29) 3-1 Won (+190)
Week 4 (Sept. 19-22) 3-1 Won (+190)
Week 3 (Sept. 13-15) 3-2 Won (+80)
Week 2 (Sept. 6-8) 2-1 Won (+90)
Week 1 (Aug. 31-Sept. 3) 2-1 Won (+80)

Saturday - Florida State at Miami (Fla.) (ABC/ESPN3, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Five-Star Game

This game used to mean the world in college football. Florida State and Miami were always fighting for the perch, not just in their conference, but in the football world. These days, FSU is back to prominence, although a trip up in Raleigh a couple of weeks ago sent them spinning. They got untracked against Boston College, and now hope to keep their rivals down. While the Hurricanes have gotten drilled during their high-profile, non-conference games, they are still 4-0 ATS in their past four ACC matchups. That includes an 18-14 setback to UNC last week in which the Canes were a 7.5-point dog at home. This is the true definition of a rivalry game, especially if you look at the underdog's record lately. In the past 13 meetings, the dog has covered 12 times. The road team is 6-0 ATS in the past six meetings. However, FSU is installed as a three-touchdown favorite on the road, and in this type of game, that's an awful lot of points.

Saturday - North Carolina at Duke (ESPNU, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Four-Star Game

Duke bolted out to a 20-0 lead last week in Blacksburg, and it appeared they were on the brink of bowl eligibility with their sixth win. But Virginia Tech dashed the dreams of the Blue Devils, scoring 41 unanswered points, sending them back to Durham with kicked behinds. Now, the Blue Devils are back home, where they have been money, squaring off against their rivals from down US 15-501. The Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS in their past four road games against a team with a winning home record, and 0-4 ATS in their past four road games overall. For Duke, while they have been poor on the road, they are 7-0 ATS in their past seven home games - and they are getting 10.5 points in this one. Duke is also 4-1 ATS in their past five games overall, and 11-3-1 ATS in their past 15 games played in the month of October. However, UNC is 5-2 ATS in their past seven meetings at Wallace Wade Stadium. However, this Blue Devils team is markedly better than most, if not all, of those previous squads. This one might be decided by a touchdown or less.

Saturday - Virginia Tech at Clemson (ABC/ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Three-Star Game

When these two teams get together, it usually has championship ramifications. This season, it is an elimination game of sorts. Virginia Tech is already on life support after a pair of early ACC losses, while Clemson can ill-afford another setback after losing at Florida State. This should be a highly contentious affair. The Hokies are 0-4 ATS in their past four road games, and just 1-3-1 ATS in their past five games against a team with a winning record. In addition, Va. Tech is 2-6-1 ATS in their past nine games, and 4-13 ATS in their past 17 on grass. Meanwhile, Clemson is 4-0 ATS in their past four ACC games, but 2-5 ATS in their past seven games against teams with a winning record. As far as head-to-head, Virginia Tech is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings with Clemson, and the dog is 4-0 ATS in the past four in this series. As far as the total, while the over is 4-1 in Virginia Tech's past five, and 4-0 in Clemson's past four, the under has cashed in five of the past six meetings in this series.

Saturday - North Carolina State at Maryland (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Two-Star Game

The Wolfpack is a hard team to figure. They go down to Miami and lose a shootout on the road, and then come home and trip up Florida State with a rousing comeback. They're even harder to figure against the number. NC State is 5-1-1 ATS in their past seven games against a team with a winning record, but 0-3-1 ATS in their past four road contests. For Maryland, they're fairly easy to figure. They're not good. They are 2-5 ATS in their past seven games against a team with a winning record, 3-10 ATS in their past 13 games overall, and 0-9 ATS in their past nine home games. In this series, however, the home team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings. The under could be the way to go, as the under is 5-1 in NC State's past six road games, and 6-2 in their past eight ACC battles. The under is 5-2 in Maryland's past seven home games. Of course, the over is 4-0 in the past four meetings, so make of that what you will.

Saturday - Boston College at Georgia Tech (GamePlan/ESPN3, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup One-Star Game

There are some big nuggets of information to remember heading into what looks like a meaningless game between two bad teams. Boston College is 10th in the ACC in total offense with 383.8 yards per game, and they are ninth in scoring with slightly less than 25 points per game. In addition, Boston College has allowed 32.7 ppg on defense, and they have allowed almost 500 yards of offense to the opposition. They are terrible against the run, especially, which is never good when facing Ga. Tech. The Yellow Jackets are third in the NCAA with 331.0 yards per game on the ground. This one could get really ugly. B.C. is 0-4 ATS in their past four games overall, and they are 7-20 ATS in their past 27 games against a team with a losing record. Georgia Tech is 13-6-1 ATS in their past 20 games against a team with a losing record, but just 3-7-1 ATS in their past 11 ACC games. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings. At a two-touchdown margin, it is an interesting line. It's easy to see Georgia Tech covering with their rush offense vs. BC's defense, but it's also easy to see B.C. covering, because neither team is very good.

Saturday - Wake Forest at Virginia (GamePlan/ESPN3, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Other Game to Watch

The Demon Deacons will be looking to keep up their dominance against the spread against poor teams. Wake is 5-1 ATS in their past six games against teams with a losing record, but they are just 7-15 ATS in their past 22 road games. However, UVA has been terrible against the spread. They are 0-4 ATS in their past four ACC games, 0-4-1 ATS in their past five home games, and 0-8-1 ATS in their past nine games overall. Wake has dominated this series, going 5-1 ATS in the past six trips to UVA, and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their past six meetings overall with the Cavaliers. The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six battles, and the road team is 8-2-1 ATS in the past 11 matchups. All signs point to a Wake cover.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 8

October 17, 2012

Thursday, Oct. 18


Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

OREGON at ARIZONA STATE...Sun Devils have actually covered last two meetings after dropping previous five vs. spread against Ducks. Todd Graham's ASU 5-0-1 vs. line TY, UO 2-4 vs. spread first five in 2012. Graham teams 20-10-1 vs. line since 2010 (Tulsa, Pitt, ASU) and 9-2 as dog since 2010. ASU, based on team and series trends.

HOUSTON at SMU...June Jones 12-19 last 31 vs. number since early 2010. SMU has failed to cover last three vs. UH and hasn't beaten Cougs since 2006. Mustangs 11-20 vs. spread at home since 2007. UH, based on team and series trends.

Friday, Oct. 19
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

UCONN at SYRACUSE...Pasqualoni got revenge on old employer Cuse with a 28-21 win LY. Series has been all-UConn lately, with Huskies winning and covering last five meetings. Marrone only 4-14 vs. line since 2011 and 2-5 vs. line at Carrier Dome that span. Pasqualoni, based on series and team trends.

Saturday, Oct. 20
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

NEBRASKA at NORTHWESTERN...Cats scored upset win at Lincoln LY. Pat Fitzgerald also 6-1 SU and vs. line in 2012, including three straight covers at home after 1-5 spread mark at Evanston LY. Bo Pelini no covers last 4 on road since late 2011. Northwestern, based on recent trends.

MINNESOTA at WISCONSIN...Paul Bunyan Axe and Slab of Bacon! Badgers 3-6 vs. spread last nine since late 2011 (though covers in last three). Jerry Kill 5-2-1 last 7 as dog. Wiscy has have covered only one of last five in Paul Bunyan game. Minnesota, based on team and series trends.

ARMY at EASTERN MICHIGAN...Army 2-8 vs. line and 0-10 SU away since last season, but EMU winless SU in 2012 and 6-18 vs. line last 24 on board at Ypsilanti. Slight to Army, based on extended EMU home woes.

BALL STATE at CENTRAL MICHIGAN...Lembo 7-3 vs. line away since LY and Cards 26-12 vs. number on road since 2007. Chips 4-22 last 26 on board for Dan Enos. Cards have won and covered last two in series. Ball State, based on team trends.

BOWLING GREEN at UMASS...BGSU 6-4 vs. line last 10 away, 2-1 as DD chalk since 2010. Slight to BGSU, based on team trends.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at AKRON...NIU just 2-5 as road chalk since last season (1-1 TY). Slight to Akron, based on team trends.

GEORGIA at KENTUCKY...UK has actually covered 4 of last 6 in this series, including a year ago at Athens, but Joker just 8-18 vs. spread his last 26 on board since mid 2010. Richt 5-2 as road chalk since LY. Georgia, based on recent Joker woes.

WAKE FOREST at VIRGINIA...Cavs no covers last 6 TY, now on 1-8 spread run since late 2011, 6-14-1 last 20, 9-19-1 last 29 on board since early 2010 for Mike London. Wake, based on extended UVa spread woes.

NORTH CAROLINA at DUKE...Cutcliffe has covered first four at Durham TY and is 18-11-2 vs. number overall since 2010. Home team 3-0-1 vs. number last four in series. Home team has won and covered in first seven Fedora games this season (Heels 0-3 away). Duke, based on series home and team trends.

NC STATE at MARYLAND...Now we're into the second half of the season thing with O'Brien and NCS; Pack now 27-9 vs. line after fifth game of season since O'Brien arrived in 2007. Although NCS only 2-7 vs. line away since 2011 (0-3 TY). NCS, based on O'Brien extended marks.

CINCINNATI at TOLEDO...Rockets 0-2 as Glass Bowl dog since 2010 and 5-7 in role since 2007, but Toledo is 6-1 SU. Cincy 6-2 SU (5-3 vs. line) away from Nippert since LY. Slight to Cincy, based on team trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE at GEORGIA TECH...Under-fire Spaziani 1-5 SU and vs. line TY, while GT no wins or covers its last three TY. Paul Johnson just 13-19-1 vs. spread since late in 2009 season. Eagles no covers first three away TY. Slight to GT, based on recent BC negatives.

RUTGERS at TEMPLE...Owls 20-11 vs. line at Linc since 2007 and 8-1 as home dog since 2007. Temple, based on extended trends.

NEW MEXICO at AIR FORCE...Bob Davie making a difference as Lobos have covered last four and 4 of 6 this season. Force 2-9 vs. line at home since LY and 4-13 vs. spread as host since 2010. Road team has covered last three years in series, and UNM 9-2 vs. spread last 10 on board since late 2011. New Mexico, based on team trends.

SAN JOSE STATE at UTSA...Coker's UTSA 5-1 SU and 3-1 vs. line to start the season, but SJSU 8-1 last nine and 13-4 last 17 on board. Spartans have also covered last five away. SJSU, based on extended trends.

NEW MEXICO STATE at UTAH STATE...NMSU five SU losses in a row and only one cover in that bunch. USU 6-1 vs. line TY including 3-0 at home, also 3-0 as home chalk. USU, based on current trends.

VIRGINIA TECH at CLEMSON...Beamer only 6-15 vs. line since LY and that included a pair of lopsided losses vs. Clemson. Beamer's extended road mark is still good (32-20 vs. points away since 2004) but that has been worsening steadily since last season (3-8 vs. line last 11 away from Blacksburg). Clemson, based on recent trends.

UNLV at BOISE STATE...Bobby Hauck form chart continues, Rebs now 1-15 vs. line away on Bobby's watch since 2010. UNLV has also lost last 18 in a row SU on road and 1-17 vs. spread in those games! Boise, based on extended UNLV road woes.

BYU at NOTRE DAME...Bronco Mendenhall 5-0 vs. line as road dog since LY (1-0 TY) and Cougs 11-5 vs. spread away since 2010. BYU, based on extended team trends.

ALABAMA at TENNESSEE...Nick 29-16 against number overall since 2009. He's 4-0 SU vs. Vols (3-1 vs. line) as Tide HC and Bama 6-1-1 vs. spread last 8 in series. Nick also 8-1 as road chalk since LY and note visiting team is 6-0 vs. points in Tide games TY. Derek Dooley 4-12 as dog since 2010. Bama, based on team and series trends.

STANFORD at CAL...Road team has covered last three in Big Game and Tedford is 3-1 vs. line last four vs. Tree. Cal 1-3 vs. line at home TY and Tedford only 2-4 as home dog since 2007. Tree 12-3 against points on road since 2010. Stanford, based on team trends.

WASHINGTON at ARIZONA...Rich Rod 1-2 as home chalk TY and his teams at Mich & UA are 5-10 in that role since 2008. Home team has won and covered last three years in series, however, and Sarkisian just 2-6 vs. spread last 8 away. UA, based on team and recent series home trends.

PURDUE at OHIO STATE...Urban Meyer 2-2 vs. line at home TY, while Purdue has covered last three on the road since late LY. Purdue 6-2 vs. line last 8 meetings. Slight to Purdue, based on team and series trends.

MICHIGAN STATE at MICHIGAN...Four straight wins and covers in series for MSU, also 4-0-1 vs. number last five meetings. But Dantonio only 1-6 vs. number in 2012, and Brady Hoke 7-3 vs. spread at Big House since arriving LY. Slight to Michigan, based on recent trends.

INDIANA at NAVY...IU only 3-7 as road dog since 2010 (0-1 TY; 2-3 since LY). Slight to Navy, based on recent IU road dog woes.

TEXAS TECH at TCU...Frogs only 8-12 last 20 on board since late 2010, 4-6 as home chalk since LY. Tuberville 2-0 vs. line away TY but Red Raiders just 2-4 as road dog for Tuberville since 2010. Slight to Texas Tech, based on recent TCU woes.

COLORADO at SOUTHERN CAL...Lane "Daniel Tosh" Kiffin only 1-5 vs. line TY but Jon Embree just 1-5 vs. spread in 2012. Embree 5-13 vs. line since taking over at CU in 2011. Buffs also 2-11 as road dog since 2010 (2-7 for Embree). Tosh Kiffin, based on CU negatives.

FLORIDA STATE at MIAMI-FLORIDA...Big road-oriented series lately, with visitor covering last six meetings. Al "Touch of" Golden 19-9 as dog since 2007 at Temple & Miami. Jimbo no covers first two as road chalk TY after 4-1 mark in role LY. Slight to FSU, based on series road trends.

UTAH at OREGON STATE...Utah 5-3 as road dog since LY. OSU 4-1 vs. line in 2012, though Beavs only 1-8 as chalk (1-7 in role at Corvallis) since 2010. Utah, based on OSU chalk woes.

KANSAS STATE at WEST VIRGINIA...Bill Snyder 9-1 last 10 as road dog and 13-5-1 overall vs. number since 2011. WVU only 3-6 vs. line at Morgantown since 2011. Bill Snyder, based on team trends.

LSU at TEXAS A&M...LSU no covers last three away from Baton Rouge, though Les Miles still 10-5 vs. line away from home since LY and 7-3 as road chalk since 2010. Sumlin teams 2-4 as dog since 2010 (1-0 TY) but also 8-2 at home since LY. Slight to LSU, based on team trends.

SOUTH CAROLINA at FLORIDA...Spurrier has wins and covers last two years vs. alma mater and 5-2 vs. line vs. Gators since taking over SC in 2005. Spurrier 6-1 vs. line TY. Muschamp unbeaten SU in 2012 and has covered last four. Slight to South Carolina, based on series trends.

AUBURN at VANDERBILT...James Franklin's 9-1 vs. spread at Nashville since taking over the Dores last year! Auburn 1-5 vs. line TY and 6-13 vs. points post-Cam Newton. Vandy, based on team trends.

WESTERN MICHIGAN at KENT STATE...Kent State 5-1 vs. line TY (covered last 4). Broncs 0-2 vs. line away in 2012, Cubit now 14-21-1 vs. line away since 2007. Kent State, based on team trends.

MARSHALL at SOUTHERN MISS...USM still winless SU for Ellis Johnson and only 2-4 vs. line this season. Herd 2-1 vs. line away TY after 4-8 spread mark on road past two seasons. Marshall, based on team trends.

UCF at MEMPHIS...Tigers just beat Rice but still just 5-10 vs. number at home since 2010. O'Leary 2-0 vs. line away TY after 1-5 a year ago, also 7-4 as DD chalk since 2010. UCF, based on Memphis negatives.

SOUTH FLORIDA at LOUISVILLE...Charlie Strong only 6-10 vs. line at Papa John's since 2010. Skip Holtz 3-12 last 15 on board since early LY. Skip is , however, 2-0 as a dog TY as the favored team has failed to cover in first six Bulls games this season. Skip 6-2 as road dog since 2010. USF, based on Skip Holtz dog marks.

IDAHO at LA TECH...LT 5-1 vs. line TY and Sonny Dykes now 13-1 vs. spread last 14 on board since mid 2011! Five straight covers for LT over Vandals! La Tech, based on team and series trends.

IOWA STATE at OKLAHOMA STATE...Big revenge for OSU after being dealt its only loss of 2011 by the Cyclones! But ISU has covered its first two away TY, Paul Rhoads now 6-3 as road dog since LY. Gundy 2-0 as DD home chalk TY, 12-6 in role since 2007. Slight to OSU, based on extended Gundy marks.

KANSAS at OKLAHOMA...KU 5-8 vs. line away since 2010 (Weis 1-1 TY). Stoops 18-12 as DD home chalk since 2007, OU 8-6 vs. line at Norman since 2010. OU, based on team trends.

BAYLOR at TEXAS... Baylor won and covered last two years vs. Texas and has covered 4 of last 5 vs. Horns. Mack 1-2 vs. line at home TY and 5-11 since 2010. Baylor, based on team and recent series trends.

PITTSBURGH at BUFFALO...Pitt 19-11-2 vs. line away since the mid-Wannstedt era of 2007. Panthers also 4-1 as somewhat-rare road chalk since 2007. Slight to Pitt, based on team trends.

EAST CAROLINA at UAB...Ruffin McNeill 6-11 vs. line on road since arriving at ECU in 2010. Slight to UAB, based on team trends.

PENN STATE at IOWA...O'Brien has won last 4 and covered last 5 TY for Nittany Lions! He's 2-0 vs. line away after PSU 4-8 vs. points away last two years. Penn State, based on recent trends.

TULANE at UTEP...Wave had covered four straight vs. UTEP prior to 44-7 home loss LY. Miners no covers last three TY after Tulsa loss. Slight to Tulane, based on recent trends.

WYOMING at FRESNO STATE...Wyo 3-0 as road dog TY and HC Dave Christensen 16-4 vs. line in role since arriving at Laramie in 2009. Slight to Wyo, based on extended road dog trends.

SAN DIEGO STATE at NEVADA...Chris Ault no covers first 3 at Reno TY and Mackay Stadium home chalk mark now 25-13 since 2004 after 1-6 last 7 in role. Slight to SDSU, based on recent Nevada woes in Reno.

Saturday, Oct. 20 - Added Games
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

UL-MONROE at WESTERN KENTUCKY...Tops now 6-0 vs. line TY and with as astounding 15 covers in a row since early 2011! Last three meetings decided by 5 or fewer! WKU, based on extended trends.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Dan Mullen 7-3 vs. line at home the past two seasons. But MTSU has covered first three away TY. Slight to MTSU, based on recent trends.

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at TROY...FIU only 2-5 vs. line TY and 5-12 last 17 on board. Troy 1-2 vs. line at home TY and 3-10 in role since 2010. FIU, based on extended Troy home woes.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC at SOUTH ALABAMA...Note that road team has covered in first six USA games this season. FAU has managed covers in last four outings for Carl Pelini. FAU, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Thursday, October 18

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Oregon at Arizona State: What bettors need to know
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Oregon Ducks at Arizona State Sun Devils (+9.5, 69.5)

The computers were unkind to No. 2 Oregon on Sunday when the first BCS rankings were unveiled. The Ducks can’t worry about perception right now, though. The reality is they have a tougher-than-expected road test Thursday against No. 24 Arizona State, which will try to snap a seven-game skid against Oregon in Tempe.

The unbeaten Ducks, who haven't played since Oct. 6, are ranked third in the BCS rankings behind Florida because of the Gators’ impressive strength of schedule. Therefore, coach Chip Kelly's second-ranked offense (52.3 points per game) will likely try to make a statement against the surprising Sun Devils.

In Todd Graham’s first season, Arizona State is atop the Pac-12 South thanks to efficient quarterback play and the nation’s eighth-ranked defense (272.6 yards per game). The Sun Devils, however, haven’t faced a team with anywhere near the type of speed Oregon possesses. In the most recent meeting, the Ducks cruised to a 41-27 victory in Eugene last October.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: The Ducks opened as 10-point favorites and have been bet off the key number to -9.5. The total has moved from 68.5 to 69.5.

WEATHER: The forecast in Tempe is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the mid 80s. Winds are expected to blow west at 5 mph.

ABOUT OREGON (6-0, 3-0 Pac 12, 2-4 ATS): The Ducks obliterated Washington 52-21 prior to their week off, running the second-longest winning streak in the FBS to nine games. Redshirt freshman Marcus Mariota threw four touchdowns and the dynamic backfield duo of Kenjon Barner and De’Anthony Thomas totaled 197 yards and two scores. Barner (727 yards, nine touchdowns) is 12th in the nation in rushing after racking up 122 yards. Meanwhile, Thomas - arguably the fastest player in the nation - averages 136.6 all-purpose yards, including an outrageous 11.3 yards every time he touches the ball. The Ducks aren’t all glitz and glamor, either. Oregon is fifth in red-zone defense (58 percent), seventh in turnovers forced (17) and 10th in third-down conversion rate allowed (29.7).

ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (5-1, 3-0 Pac 12, 5-1 ATS): Few people expected the Sun Devils, coming off a 6-7 campaign, to be in position to put a dent in Oregon’s national title hopes at this point. But they are vastly improved and one reason is because Taylor Kelly (1,600 yards, 14 touchdowns, two interceptions) is third in the nation in passing efficiency (175.9). The sophomore was 20-of-28 for 308 yards and five touchdowns in a 51-17 rout of Colorado last week – Arizona State’s third straight win. Rashad Ross sparked a run of 31 unanswered points by returning the second-half kickoff 100 yards. The defense, led by junior defensive tackle Will Sutton (8.5 sacks), is second in the nation in sacks (4.3 per game). The unit is also fifth in the nation against the pass (144.1 yards per game).

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Ducks are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in Arizona State.
* Favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Home team is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Arizona State has lost 17 straight to top 10 teams.

2. Oregon has won nine straight conference games, eclipsing the 40-point mark in each victory.

3. Oregon is ranked sixth by the computers, but games against ranked foes Southern California, Stanford and rival Oregon State will boost its strength of schedule.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Thursday, October 18

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UH Cougars improved, but can bettors trust them yet?
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If it weren't for a Thursday night primetime game on FSN, the Houston Cougars might have continued to fly under the betting radar after winning and covering the spread in their past three games.

The Cougs stumbled out to an 0-3 SU (straight up) and ATS (against the spread) start to the season - not really unexpected considering they have a new coach (Tony Levine), a new offensive coordinator (Mike Nesbitt resigned after the first game), new schemes and a young team that features just four seniors in the two-deep on offense.

The question is heading into Thursday on the road at SMU, has Houston now hit full stride after it had a chance to jell in the first three games or are their more growing pains to come?

“I do not expect the Cougars to start lighting up the scoreboard like they did throughout the Case Keenum era, when they averaged 42 points per game over a four year span,” says Covers Expert and professional handicapper Teddy Covers. “(Quarterback) David Piland is still very green, particularly with his red zone decision making, and the Cougs don't have the same level of playmaking ability from their wide receivers that they've had in recent years.”

That’s largely due to the fact Houston lost five of its top six receivers at the end of last season. But some of the younger players have had big performances in recent weeks and new offensive coordinator Travis Bush, who took over after Week 1, has this scoring unit on a steep upward path.

According to uhcougars.com, Houston has averaged of 575.6 yards per game over its past five, which would rank second nationally. The Cougars have won their last three games by an average of 21 points and they covered three straight games while favored by 8 points or more each time.

Piland also set the NCAA record for most attempts in a game without an interception against Louisiana Tech when he finished 53-of-77 for 580 yards.

More betting notes for Thursday’s game (SMU +5, O/U 60):

--Teddy Covers watched Houston’s 39-17 win (at -13.5) over UAB last Saturday closely:

“Houston's defense was the dominant unit against the Blazers, notching eight sacks in the game, the third straight game they've shut down their opponent,” he said. “If their D continues to play like that, they should get past each of their next three opponents before the Tulsa game.”

--The line opened at 4 or 4.5 at the earliest books, then jumped to as high as 6 through the week. It sat at 5 as of early Wednesday evening.

“Nothing unusual about the line move here. Early money poured in on Houston, then we saw some modest buy-back, locking in both ways around the key number of 3. I don't see any early indicators that this line is likely to shift significantly from the current number of -5.”

--Houston hasn’t scored more fewer than 37 points in the past six meetings with SMU, all wins. Cougs went 4-2 ATS.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Thursday's games
6-0 Oregon is offensive machine, scoring 42+ points in every game this season; closest game they've had was 42-25 over improved Fresno State, but this is their first true road game- Ducks beat Washington State 51-26 in Seattle, a "road" game but cross-state from Wazzu's campus (23-19 at the half). Oregon won last seven games vs Arizona State (5-1 vs spread), winning last four visits here by average score of 44-20. 5-1 Arizona State is lot better this year, losing only 24-20 at Missouri; Sun Devils waxed Illinois/Utah in first two at home; they're 4-0-1 as home dog since '09. Pac-12 home underdogs are 7-5 against the spread.

Houston won its last six games vs SMU by average score of 40-23, with last three wins by 30-25-24 points; they won last their three visits here by average score of 42-28. Cougars rallied from an 0-3 start to win last three games, by 21-23-22 points; they lost 37-6 at UCLA in only other road game this year. Mustangs lost three of last four games, including a horrific 27-26 loss at Tulane last week, when they outgained Wave by 129 yards and still lost. Oddly, both SMU wins are shutouts, 17-0 at UTEP, and 52-0 over I-AA SF Austin. C-USA home teams are 9-6 vs spread this year, home dogs are 3-3.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/16/12 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/13/12 28-*23-*2 54.90% +*1350 Detail
10/12/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/11/12 3-*3-*0 50.00% -*150 Detail
10/06/12 53-*44-*1 54.64% +*2300 Detail
10/05/12 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
10/04/12 1-*5-*0 16.67% -*2250 Detail

Totals 89-*79-*3 52.98% +1050

Thursday, October 18

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Houston - 8:00 PM ET Southern Methodist +4 500
Southern Methodist - Under 58.5 500

Oregon - 9:00 PM ET Arizona State +8 500
Arizona State - Under 68.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF Oct Record:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/18/12 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
10/16/12 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/13/12 28-*23-*2 54.90% +*1350 Detail
10/12/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/11/12 3-*3-*0 50.00% -*150 Detail
10/06/12 53-*44-*1 54.64% +*2300 Detail
10/05/12 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
10/04/12 1-*5-*0 16.67% -*2250 Detail

Totals 92-*80-*3 53.49% +2000

Friday, October 19

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Connecticut - 8:00 PM ET Connecticut +4 500

Syracuse - Under 43.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Syracuse Orange Host UConn Under Friday Night Lights

Connecticut Huskies at Syracuse Orange
College Football Betting Preview
Date: 10/19/2012, 8:00 p.m. (ET) ESPN
Opening Lines: Syracuse -4, O/U 43½

Connecticut Huskies: It has been a trying season for Paul Pasqualoni troops, and equally frustrating for UConn (3-4 straight up, 1-4-2 against the spread) backers. Twice (vs. NC State, at Western Michigan) the Huskies have seen rallies fall short, and last week they moved to 0-2 in Big East play when an early 14-zip lead in Storrs vs. Temple didn't stand up. Connecticut has dropped the cash in each of the last four games, but there is good news for anyone playing the 'under' in Husky games (5-2). More good news comes in the form of top RB Lyle McCombs being listed as probable for Friday's kickoff after missing the Temple game with a wrist injury. McCombs rushed for 484 in UConn's first six games and scored four touchdowns. He also led the team in rushing last season with over 1,100 yards. The Huskies have won and covered each of the last five games in this series to take a 6-2 all-time lead over the Orange. The 'over' has been the winner in three of the last four between the teams.

Syracuse Orange: Doug Marrone and his staff will be looking for their first victory over UConn since taking the helm in '09. Syracuse (2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS) still hasn't completely recovered from the 5-game nosedive to end the 2011 season, and the Orange enter this matchup failing to beat the number in each of their last four tilts (1-10 ATS last 11). Turnovers have killed the Orange who have left it on the ground seven times and eight more through the air. Ryan Nassib has thrown all eight picks, including two last week in the 23-15 loss at Rutgers who was 6½-point chalk. Nassib has the eighth-most passing yards (1,908) in the country and will cross the 2,000 yard plateau for the third consecutive season this week, but his 137.0 passer rating is hurt by thosee INTs. Syracuse's last three games have failed to reach the scoreboard, and the 'under' is 5-2 for UConn on the season.

[StarDust Bum]

UConn at Syracuse

October 19, 2012

In a battle of Big East rivals in dire need of a victory if they ascertain any hopes of going to a bowl game, Syracuse will play host to Connecticut tonight at the Carrier Dome. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

As of early this morning, most books were listing Syracuse (2-4 straight up, 1-4-1 against the spread) as a four-point favorite with a total of 43. Gamblers can take the Huskies to win outright for a plus-160 payout (risk $100 to win $160).

Doug Marrone’s team is mired in an abysmal 1-9-1 ATS slide in its last 11 games dating back to last season’s 28-21 loss at UConn. The ‘Cuse won a 14-13 decision over Pittsburgh two Fridays ago as a one-point home favorite, but the Orange went down 23-15 last week at Rutgers.

Syracuse got a touchdown and two-point conversion in the fourth quarter that might’ve helped a few of its backers get a backdoor push, but most books closed the Scarlet Knights as 7 ½-point home ‘chalk.’ The 38 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 50-point total.

The Orange out-gained Rutgers 418-237 in total offense, but Syracuse committed four turnovers while the Scarlet Knights played turnover-free football. Ryan Nassib threw for 356 yards and one touchdown, but he was intercepted twice.

For the season, Nassib has completed 64.7 percent of his throws for 1,896 yards with an 11/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In the last three games, the senior QB has a pair of TD passes compared to five interceptions.

Nassib’s favorite target is Marcus Sales, who had four catches for 100 yards last week against RU. Sales has made 36 receptions for 533 yards and five TDs.

Connecticut (3-4 SU, 2-4-1 ATS) started the season 2-1 SU and 2-0-1 ATS with wins vs. UMass (37-0) and at Maryland (24-21). The Huskies lost a 10-7 decision to North Carolina St. as three-point home underdogs in Week 2.

Since then, however, UConn has lost three of four games and has failed to cover the spread each time out. The Huskies have lost their first two Big East games, dropping a 19-3 decision at Rutgers before losing 17-14 to Temple at home last week.

Paul Pasqualoni’s squad has struggled to get decent play at the quarterback position. The result has been an offense that’s averaging a pedestrian 19.0 points per game, which ranks 111th in the country.

Sophomore QB Chandler Whitmer, a juco transfer, has 1,535 yards passing. However, he has an abysmal 6/10 TD-INT ratio.

UConn is led in rushing by sophomore RB Lyle McCombs, who was a second-team All Big East selection in 2011. McCombs has rushed for 484 yards and four TDs, but he’s averaging only 3.6 YPC. McCombs has a wrist injury that kept him out of last week's overtime loss to the Owls, but he’s been upgraded to ‘probable’ for tonight’s game.

UConn’s defense has been the bright spot, keeping the team in every game. The Huskies are sixth in the nation in total defense, eighth in passing defense. They are 15th in scoring defense, surrendering 16.3 PPG.

The ‘under’ is 5-2 overall for UConn, but the ‘over’ has cashed in two of its three road assignments. As for the Cuse, it has seen the 'under' cash in three straight games to improve to 3-2 overall.

UConn has won five in a row over the ‘Cuse both SU and ATS, including a 28-21 win as a two-point home favorite last season. The 49 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 45-point total. McCombs rushed for 152 yards and one touchdown on 24 carries.

UConn has been a road underdog six times under Pasqualoni, going 0-6 ATS in those situations. Meanwhile, Syracuse is 5-7-1 ATS as a home favorite during Marrone’s four-year tenure.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Pasqualoni was the head coach at Syracuse from 1991-2004. He was a steady winner for the Orange but got fired after missing the postseason in three of his last five seasons. We should note, however, that the ‘Cuse has only gone bowling once since Pasqualoni was ousted in 2004.

--Times are tough in Lexington these days. Kentucky is 1-6 and will be without its top two quarterbacks, top two running backs and both starting safeties when it hosts Georgia on Saturday. Also, starting cornerback Cartier Rice is ‘doubtful’ with a hip injury. Most books are listing the Bulldogs as 28-point road favorites. UK has a 4-5 spread record in nine games as a home ‘dog during Joker Phillips’s three-year tenure.

--Tennessee has limped to an abysmal 1-6 spread record in seven games as a home underdog on Derek Dooley’s watch. The Volunteers are 20 ½-point home ‘dogs Saturday vs. top-ranked Alabama. UT might be without leading rusher Raijon Neal, who is ‘doubtful’ with a sprained ankle.

--Alabama is 15-7 ATS as a road favorite under Nick Saban.

--Mississippi St. is in a classic look-ahead situation vs. Middle Tennessee since it plays at Alabama next week. Most books are listing the Bulldogs as 19-point home favorites. Remember, the Blue Raiders went on the road and thumped Ga. Tech 49-28 on Sept. 29. They have won outright in all three of their road assignments.

--Vandy is a perfect 5-0 ATS as a home favorite since the arrival of second-year head coach James Franklin. The Commodores are favored by seven Saturday vs. Auburn. The Tigers are 3-8 ATS as road underdogs during Gene Chizik’s tenure.

--Miami quarterback Stephen Morris (9/6 TD-INT) is ‘doubtful’ vs. FSU due to a sprained ankle. The Hurricanes are expected to give back-up QB Ryan Williams the starting nod. Williams started 10 games as a true freshman at Memphis in 2010, throwing for 2,075 yards with a 13/10 TD-INT ratio.

--Stat of the WeeK: Tommy Tuberville now owns an incredible 6-2 straight-up record against top-five opponents during his tenures at Texas Tech and Auburn. Wow!

--When the American hostages were released from Iran back in 1981, former MLB Commissioner Bowie Kuhn granted each hostage a lifetime pass to major-league games. To this, the legendary Beano Cook, who passed away at the age of 81 last week, responded, “Haven’t they suffered enough?”

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Friday's game
UConn won its last five games vs Syracuse, with four of five wins by 17+ points; they won last two visits here, 23-6/39-14. Favorites are 7-1 vs spread in last eight series games. Huskies' coach Pasqualoni is former head man at Syracuse. UConn lost three of last four games, scoring 3-14 points- they were outrushed 325-141 in those games. Orangemen are 1-4 vs I-A teams, with only win 14-13 over Pitt; they're 0-4 when allowing more than 17 points. Big East home teams are 4-4 vs spread in league play. Huskies are 0-1-1 as underdogs this year, scoring 7-3 points in the two games. Five of seven UConn games stayed under total.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Friday, October 19

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Connecticut at Syracuse: What bettors need to know
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Connecticut at Syracuse (-4, 43.5)

The kicking game tends to be an underappreciated aspect of football until mistakes occur, a fact to which both Connecticut and Syracuse can attest. On Friday, both teams hope to rid themselves of more special-teams mistakes when they meet in the Carrier Dome. In last Saturday’s 23-15 setback against undefeated Rutgers, the Orange had a potential go-ahead field goal blocked and returned for a touchdown, ultimately leading to 16 unanswered points for the Scarlet Knights. The Huskies will be attempting to overcome a painful 17-14 overtime loss to Temple last Saturday in which kicker Chad Christen missed four field goal attempts, including a potential game-winner in regulation that was blocked.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Syracuse -4, O/U 43.5

ABOUT CONNECTICUT (3-4, 0-2 Big East): The Huskies will be the second consecutive stingy defense the Orange face as they rank no worse than 13th in the nation in rushing, passing and total defense. However, Connecticut has struggled to run the ball in conference play, rushing for a combined 141 yards in its two league losses. The lack of rushing success hasn’t helped sophomore quarterback Chandler Whitmer, who is completing 50.7 percent of his passes in league play after connecting on 61.9 percent of his passes prior to the Big East schedule.

ABOUT SYRACUSE (2-4, 1-1): The loss against the Scarlet Knights was particularly troubling for the Orange considering they outgained Rutgers 418-237. However, Syracuse could not overcome four turnovers, which has been a problem for most of the season and has led to the team’s minus-1.7 turnover differential – tied for the fourth-worst mark in the country. Quarterback Ryan Nassib is among the top 10 in the nation in completions per game (27.8), passing yards per game (318.8) and total offense (330.7). He also became the first quarterback in school history to record four 300-yard passing games in the same season in the loss to Rutgers.

TRENDS:

* Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Favorite is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Over is 5-1 in Huskies’ last six road games.
* Orange is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven conference games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Connecticut leads the all-time series 6-2 and has won each of the last five meetings.

2. Under coach Doug Marrone, Syracuse is 12-4 when holding its opponent to less than 20 points – a benchmark the Huskies haven’t cleared in league play through two games.

3. Three of the Connecticut’s four losses have been by six points or less while three of the four Orange’s setbacks have come by more than seven.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Saturday's games
Top games
Nebraska hasn't played Northwestern since 66-17 beatdown in a bowl 12 years ago; Cornhuskers had week off after getting crushed 63-38 at Ohio State- they're 0-2 on road this year, despite scoring 30+ points in both games- they allowed 344-371 rushing yards in the losses. Nebraska is 9-5-1 as road favorite under Pelini; Wildcats are 8-9 as home dog under Fitzgerald. 6-1 Northwestern had an 11-point 4th quarter lead in its only loss; they've converted just 5 of last 22 on third down, after being 10-17 in previous game. Big Dozen home teams are 9-6, home dogs 2-1.

4-3 New Mexico won three of last four games, ran ball for 300+ yards in all four games; since '08, they're 7-14 vs spread as road dogs, losing last four and seven of last eight games vs Air Force, losing last five visits to Academy by average score of 32-19. Favorites are 8-3 vs spread in last 11 series tilts. Flyboys allowed 285-252 rushing yards in last two games, one of which went OT, the other decided by one point. Four of last five AFA games were decided by 6 or less points; they're 3-11 vs spread in last 14 games as a home favorite. MWC home favorites are 4-0.

Clemson beat Virginia Tech twice LY (23-3 at home, 38-10 in ACC title game) after losing previous five games vs Hokies; underdogs won SU in last four series games. Tigers are 6-3 vs spread in last nine games as HF; they scored 45.3 ppg in last four games vs I-A opponents, even scoring 37 in game they lost. Tech is 0-2-1 vs spread in last three games as dog; they're 2-3 SU in last five games, and were down 20-0 to Duke LW but rallied to win going away. ACC home favorites are 8-6 against spread. Clemson allowed 49-31-31 points in its last three games.

BYU-Notre Dame haven't met since '05; Irish are playing solid defense, allowing 25 points in last four games (Stanford's only TD last week was scored by defense, though refs helped Irish out in OT, too)- since 2003, they're 16-29-3 vs spread as home favorites- their home wins this year are by 3-7-7 points. BYU got beat at home by Oregon State's backup QB last week; they're 0-2 on road, losing 24-21 (-4) at Utah, then 7-6 at Boise State (+6.5). Cougars covered five of last seven games as road dog. Notre Dame best not look ahead to next week's Oklahoma game.

Stanford is 0-2 on road, scoring 13 points in both games; they're 9-2 last 11 games as road favorite. This rivalry was moved here from its longtime spot on Rivalry Saturday because of its being close to Pac-12 title game; Stanford won 31-28/48-14 last couple years, after 1-7 series skid. Cal is 3-4 but won its last two games, allowing 17 points in each; Bears are 1-6 as home dog, since 2005. Cardinal lost four of last five visits here; they played in OT last two Saturdays, getting hosed on goal-line call in loss at ND last week. Underdogs covered four of last six series games.

Michigan State won/covered last four games with Michigan, winning last two visits here, 34-17/35-21; faves are 6-3-1 vs spread in last 10 series games. Wolverines won last two games, scoring 44-45 points, since loss at Notre Dame; they're 6-3 as home favorite under Hoke. State has been hurting on offense, scoring 16 or less points in three of last five games (2-3 SU, 0-5 vs spread; were favored in all five). Michigan outscored its last four opponents 61-6 in second half. Four of last five games for both sides stayed under total.

TCU is home dog for first time since 2006; since '03, they're 4-0 as home dog, but are also 1-6 in last seven games overall. as a dog. Brutal stretch of games starts here for Frogs, who might not be favored again this year. TCU won 49-21 at Baylor last week behind backup redshirt freshman QB Boykin- they've gained 961 TY in last two games. Texas Tech qon both its road games, is now 10-3-1 vs spread in last 14 games as a road favorite- they won at Texas State (58-10, -19), Iowa State (24-13, -2) in only two road games this year. Big X road teams are 10-5 vs spread in conference play; road favorites are 4-4.

Oregon State is unlikely 5-0, having been underdog in four games, away for three; Beavers won 42-24 at BYU last week with backup QB Vaz in lineup for starter Mannion (knee) who may be back here. OSU lost 27-8 (+5) at Utah LY, getting outrushed 225-32 in first meeting as conference rivals. Utes allowed 32 ppg in losing last three games, by 30-10-7; they are 6-5 in last 11 tries as road underdog, 0-3 SU on road this year, with losses by 7-30-7 points. OSU is just 2-9 vs spread in last 11 games as a home favorite; they've got home wins this year, by 3-13 points. Pac-12 home favorites are 4-7 vs spread in conference play.

Kansas State is 6-0, with road wins at Oklahoma/Iowa State; they've got terrific senior QB and +11 turnover ratio; they're 14-2 vs spread in their last 16 games as a road underdog. Wildcats already faced solid passing offenses in Miami/Oklahoma- they defend better than West Virginia-- in WVU's last three games, they allowed 63-49-45 points, so they're trying to outscore teams. Mountaineers are 3-5 under Holgorsen as home faves they played Baylor-Texas-Tex Tech last three weeks, brutal stretch for a college team. Big X home favorites are just 1-6 against the spread.

Texas A&M allowed 57 points to La Tech in Shreveport, will have to do lot better here, vs LSU team that had tough games vs Florida/So Carolina last two Saturdays, and has Alabama on deck after its bye. LSU scored a total of only 18 points in splitting pair of road games- they're 12-9-2 as road favorites under Miles, but 0-2 this year. Aggies had to hang on last week for 59-57 win after leading 34-7; since '04, they're 9-5-1 vs spread as home underdogs, and are dog here for first time in '12. A&M won five games in row since opening 20-17 loss to Florida, with La Tech best team they've beaten. SEC home underdogs are 4-5 against spread.

Spurrier's Gamecocks are 5-2 vs spread vs Florida, his alma mater, with 17-12/36-14 wins last two years, after being 1-12 in previous 13 games with Gators. Carolina had 215-239 rushing yards in those games, but not sure if Lattimore is playing here. Carolina played Georgia/LSU last two weeks, so tough scheduling spot for them; SC is 13-8-1 as road dog with Spurrier as coach. Florida has outscored opponents 98-23 in second half; they're 4-3 as home favorites under Muschamp, 1-1 this year. SEC home favorites are 10-6 vs spread this season. All three of Florida's games in The Swamp stayed under the total.

UL-Monroe won last three games since losing 47-42 to Baylor, 31-28 in OT at Auburn; this is 5th road game in seven weeks for Warhawks, who are 23-15 as road dogs since '06, 8-6 under coach Berry. ULM won two of three vs Western Kentucky, with all three games decided by 5 or less points, and road team winning last two. Hilltoppers won four games in row since 35-0 loss at Alabama; they're 2-4 as home favorites since they moved to I-AA. Monroe allowed total of 41 points in last three games. Sun Belt home teams are 3-9 vs spread in conference play, 2-5 if favored. Western Kentucky has covered its last 15 games overall.

Middle Tennessee won 49-28 at Ga Tech, go for another BCS scalp here, vs 6-0 Mississippi State squad that beat Tennessee at home last week and visits #1 Alabama next. Blue Raiders are 4-2 but lost to McNeese St, a I-AA team; they scored in last minute to win 34-30 at FIU last week- they're 13-15 as road underdogs under Stockstill. Miss State is 7-4 in its last 11 games as a home favorite. Teams haven't met since 2009, when Bulldogs (-4.5) beat MTSU 27-9. SEC non-conference home favorites are 6-13 vs spread. Sun Belt road underdogs are 12-4.

Other Notes
-- Kentucky is 6-14-1 vs spread in last 21 SEC home games.
-- Nebraska is 9-5-1 vs spread in game following last 15 losses.
-- Central Michigan covered only two of its last 20 games.
-- Temple is 10-3-1 vs spread in last 14 home games as a home dog.

-- Iowa covered seven of its last nine games with Penn State.
-- Underdog is 8-3 vs spread in East Carolina-UAB series.
-- Baylor beat Texas last two years, 48-24/30-22.
-- Iowa State covered eight of last 12 as a Big X road underdog.

-- NC State covered its last seven games coming off a bye.
-- Memphis is 6-12 vs spread in last 18 games as a home dog.
-- Auburn has been outscored 62-3 in the fourth quarter.
-- 10 of last 11 Florida State-Miami games were decided by TD or less.