The Bum's October's College Football Best Bets !

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Louisville Tackles Cincinnati In Friday Big East Matchup

Cincinnati Bearcats at Louisville Cardinals College Football Betting Preview
Date: 10/26/2012, 8:00 p.m. (ET) ESPN2
Opening Lines: Louisville -4, O/U 53½

Cincinnati Bearcats: Butch Jones and the 'Cats (5-1 straight up, 3-3 against the spread) fell from the ranks of the unbeaten last Saturday at Toledo, perhaps looking ahead to this rivalry. Cincy closed as 5-point road chalk and never could respond to a KO return for a TD by the Rockets late in the third period. Munchie Legaux easily had his worst game of the season for the Bearcats, tossing two picks and completing just 15-of-36 aerials. Cincinnati still churned out a solid rushing effort in the loss (251 yards), even better than its 12th-highest average in the country (225.7 ypg), but will face a stiffer run defense in L'ville on Friday night. The series has run in streaks recently with the Bearcats winning the last four meetings (3-1 ATS) after the Cardinals won the previous five (4-1 ATS).

Louisville Cardinals: Charlie Strong has one of two remaining undefeated teams in the Big East, the other being Rutgers, but Louisville (7-0 SU, 3-4 ATS) is really only now beginning to reach the tough part of its slate. The Cardinals' first seven opponents are a combined 14-39, with North Carolina (5-3) the only school with winning record, and they have the Scarlet Knights on the road at the end of the campaign plus a trip to Syracuse before then. Louisville was No. 28 in last week's Don Best Linemakers Poll, and is paced on offense by talented soph QB Teddy Bridgewater who is 12th in the country with a 165.21 passer rating (11 TD, 3 INT). The Bearcats have held opposing quarterbacks to a 111.9 rating, 24th lowest in the nation. The last two games played in Louisville have gone 'over' the total; both teams have split the totals thus far in 2012, Cincinnati 2-2 'over/under' and Louisville 3-3.

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No. 16 Louisville seeks 8-0 start vs. Cincinnati

CINCINNATI BEARCATS (5-1)
at LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (7-0)

Kickoff: Friday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Louisville -3.5, Total: 53

No. 16 Louisville tries to remain unbeaten when it invites Cincinnati to Papa John's Cardinal Stadium on Friday night.

Cincinnati has won each of the past four meetings (3-1 ATS) with Louisville by at least eight points, prevailing 25-16 last year at home. The Bearcats played their first true road game last week and lost 29-23 at Toledo despite not allowing the Rockets to score an offensive touchdown. Louisville barely stayed unbeaten with a 27-25 home win over South Florida last week as QB Teddy Bridgewater was nearly perfect throwing the football (21-of-25, 256 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT).

Which team will prevail in this key Big East showdown? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

The Bearcats lead the Big East in both points (34.7 PPG) and yards (468 YPG). QB Munchie Legaux is having a strong season, ranking second in the conference with 283 total YPG. He's thrown 12 TD and just 5 INT, but two of those came in last week's loss to Toledo, when he completed just 15-of-36 passes (41.7%). Legaux hasn't relied on one receiver, as five Cincinnati players have between 13 and 18 catches and 185 to 286 receiving yards on the season. Senior RB George Winn is the main ball carrier though, rushing for at least 75 yards in all six games this year, gaining 607 yards on just 97 carries (6.3 YPC). Defensively, Cincinnati has been very strong up front, tallying a Big East-leading 3.0 sacks per game and ranking second in the conference in scoring defense (16.8 PPG allowed). The Bearcats defense has forced 13 turnovers in six games, but just one each in the past two weeks.

Bridgewater has completed 73.4 percent of his passes in 2012, throwing for 1,694 yards (9.0 YPA), 11 TD and 3 INT. He was not very effective in last year's 25-16 loss to Cincinnati though, completing only 17-of-28 throws for 195 yards (7.0 YPA), 0 TD and 1 INT, while taking four sacks. For Bridgewater to be effective on Friday and keep Cincinnati's fierce pass rush at bay, junior RB Senorise Perry (588 rush yds, 10 TD) will have to keep the defense honest. Perry was held to just 29 yards on 11 carries in last week's win over South Florida as his team was held to its lowest rushing output of the season (128 rush yds on 33 carries). Fellow junior RB Jeremy Wright has also had a strong 2012 campaign (477 rush yds, 7 TD), but he ran for just 27 yards on 11 carries last week. Defensively, Louisville has been decent, ranking among the nation's top-40 teams in both scoring defense (21.9 PPG) and total defense (339 YPG). But it has allowed 14 passing touchdowns, the most in the Big East. The Cardinals need to make more plays on defense, forcing just four turnovers in the past four contests.

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Friday, October 26, 2012

Cincinnati at Louisville, 8:00 ET
Cincinnati: 15-5 ATS away off a home loss
Louisville: 6-0 ATS versus good offensive teams

Nevada at Air Force, 8:00 ET
Nevada: 19-8 Over in road games after 1 or more losses
Air Force: 2-9 ATS in home games

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9

Friday's games
Cincinnati won last four games with Louisville, winning 35-27/28-20 in last two visits here, but Bearcats lost first game last week, getting upset in Toledo in first true road game, despite outgaining Rockets of MAC by 123 yards. Cincy is 2-5 as road underdog under Jones. Louisville is 7-0, with three wins by 5 or less points, and North Carolina is only winning team they've played; Cardinals are 9-14 in last 23 gamea as home faves, 6-7 under Strong, 2-1 this season. Favorites are 11-4 vs spread in last 15 series games. Big East home favorites are 4-4 vs spread.

Lot of close games for Air Force; five of its six games vs I-A opponents were decided by 6 or less points, or in OT; they're 4-1 as home underdog under Calhoun, covering in only game as dog this season, losing 31-25 at Michigan (+21). Last week, Nevada became first team in 21 years that lost after leading San Diego State by 10+ points in 4th quarter; they are 3-1 on road, but had to rally back from down 31-14 at half to win its last road game, at lowly UNLV. Nationwide, home underdogs are 40-45 vs spread in conference games, 4-2 in MWC play.

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NCAAF

Friday, October 26

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Nevada at Air Force: 7 things you should know
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Nevada at Air Force (3.5, 66)

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-20s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will be light out of the south.

1. Air Force attempts an average of 10.5 passes per game and 352.7 rushing yards per game (second in the nation). But leading rusher Cody Getz (928 yards, eight TDs) is expected to miss the game with an ankle injury.

2. The Nevada Wolf Pack are a perfect 4-0 on the road this season and are averaging 44.0 points per game over those four contests.

3. The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall and have played under the total in their last four October contests.

4. Nevada’s Stefphon Jefferson is the leading rusher in the nation at 156 yards a game. Air Force allowed Kasey Carrier of New Mexico to rack up a Mountain-West record 338 yards on the ground against them last week. The Falcons allow 222 rushing yards per game, the 13th-worst mark in the nation.

5. “There’s no doubt that Nevada is the most athletic team we’ve played so far this season, even more so than when we went up to Ann Arbor and played Michigan,” Falcons coach Troy Calhoun said Wednesday about the Wolf Pack offense.

6. The Wolf Pack has failed to cover the spread in its last four games overall and is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record.

7. Nevada allowed just 102 first-half yards before giving up 247 yards and 33 points in the second half of its loss to SDSU last week.

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NCAAF

Friday, October 26

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Cincinnati at Louisville: What bettors need to know
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Cincinnati Bearcats at Louisville Cardinals (-3, 52)

Louisville has a great chance to remain undefeated until its regular-season finale if it simply wins the games it should win, but the No. 14 Cardinals' toughest test of the season until then awaits Friday when they host Cincinnati in the 52nd “Battle for the Keg of Nails.”

All but one of Louisville’s victories has come against teams under .500 and the only other opponent left on its schedule after the Bearcats that owns a winning record is No. 15 Rutgers – another of the 11 remaining unbeaten FBS teams. In order to hold up their end of a potential showdown of undefeated teams on Nov. 29, the Cardinals will need to play better than they did in last Saturday’s 27-25 home victory over two-win South Florida. Cincinnati suffered its first setback last weekend despite not allowing an offensive touchdown in a 29-23 loss at Toledo.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2.

LINE: Louisville opened as big as -4 and has been bet down to a field-goal favorite. The total has come down from 53 to 52 points.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for a 68 percent chance of rain in Louisville with temperatures in the low 50s. Winds are expected to blow north at 8 mph.

ABOUT CINCINNATI (5-1, 1-0 Big East, 3-2 ATS): The Bearcats have eclipsed 425 yards of total offense in every game this season and enter this contest averaging a Big East-best 467.5 yards. Much of the credit for that mark goes to the conference’s best rushing attack that has generated at least 200 yards in all but one game and 250 yards four times. Running back Ralph Abernathy (6.6), running back George Winn (6.3) and quarterback Munchie Legaux (6.0) lead the conference in yards per carry. Winn also ranks second in the Big East with 607 rushing yards.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (7-0, 2-0, 3-4 ATS): A successful ground game will be important to protect a Cardinals' defense that has surrendered a conference-high 14 touchdown passes. Louisville, which ranks second in the conference in rushing, will undoubtedly try to enjoy the same success on the ground against Cincinnati that Toledo did when it gashed the Big East’s second-ranked rush defense for 229 yards. However, the Cardinals can also lean on quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who leads the conference in passer rating (165.2) and ranks third in the nation in completion percentage (73.4).

TRENDS:

* Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Louisville.
* Favorite is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 meetings.
* Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Cincinnati leads the all-time series 29-21-1 and has claimed each of the last four meetings.

2. The Cardinals are 4-0 in games decided by less than seven points.

3. The Bearcats have won five straight and nine of their last 10 against ranked conference opponents, including their last five away from home.

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Friday, October 26

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Cincinnati - 8:00 PM ET Cincinnati +3.5 500

Louisville - Over 52 500

Nevada - 8:00 PM ET Air Force +3.5 500

Air Force - Under 66 500

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Klein & Wildcats Meet Doege, Red Raiders In Big 12 Tilt

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Kansas State Wildcats College Football Betting Preview
Date: 10/27/2012, 3:30 p.m. (ET) FOX
Opening Lines: Kansas St. -8, O/U 62½

Texas Tech Red Raiders: Tommy Tuberville and the Red Raiders (6-1 straight up & against the spread) have definitely become a favorite for fans and bettors this season. A week after he and his Raiders defense showed up Geno Smith and West Virginia, Seth Doege filled up the boxscore in a 7-TD passing performance in a 56-53 triple-overtime win at TCU last Saturday. Doege has now rebounded nicely from a 3-INT performance in Tech's only loss to Oklahoma, throwing 13 touchdowns and just one pick the past two weeks. In a conference that boasts some of the very best quarterbacks in college football, Doege has the most TD passes (28) and is fifth nationally with a rating near 170. The defense that allowed just 43 points in its first four games combined has been exposed a bit in the loss three weeks ago to Oklahoma and last Saturday's 3OT win at Texas Christian. This is the fourth consecutive ranked opponent on Tech's slate following OU, WVU and TCU, with current No. 25 Texas on deck next week in Lubbock.

Kansas State Wildcats: Collin Klein smoked Geno Smith and the Mountaineers last Saturday night to keep Kansas State (7-0 SU, 5-1-1 ATS) unbeaten and on the Big 12 fast-track to a BCS bowl. The victory suddenly has Klein a serious part of the Heisman Trophy discussion along with WVU's Smith. Klein began the season as a 50/1 long shot, but is now listed at 10/1 at many outlets thanks to 14 rushing touchdowns and 10 more through the air against just two picks. The Wildcats defense certainly rose to the challenge against Smith and the Mountaineers, forcing his first two interceptions of the season and holding the WVU offense to under half of its offensive average (500.7 ypg). Klein scored four times (3 rushing) in Kansas State's 41-34 win over Tech in Lubbock a year ago to snap a streak of five consecutive wins and covers for the Red Raiders in the series. The Wildcats have beaten the spread just one time in Texas Tech's last seven visits to Manhattan, and the last four in his rivalry have gone 'over' the total.

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Penn State With Huge Challenge Hosting Buckeyes

The Penn State Nittany Lions have rebounded nicely after a disastrous start to the season. They host the Ohio State Buckeyes on Saturday in what is easily their tough challenge to date.

The Don Best Pro Odds is getting ready for another huge week of college football. Penn State is anywhere between 1-point favorites and 1-point underdogs. The total is 50 and kickoff will come at an unusual 5:30 p.m. (ET) from Beaver Stadium.

Penn State (5-2 straight up, 6-1 against the spread) lost its first two games to Ohio (24-14) and at Virginia (17-16) with the Jerry Sandusky / Joe Paterno scandals playing a prominent role in the team’s troubles.

It looked like coach Bill O’Brien had bitten off more than he could chew and had made a huge mistake leaving the New England Patriots’ offensive coordinator job.

O’Brien has done the near impossible though, guiding the team to 5-straight wins and covers, including the last three in the Big Ten. The team is battling Wisconsin (3-1) for the Leaders Division crown and a spot in the conference title game as Ohio State (4-0) is ineligible due to sanctions.

The Nittany Lions resurgence is putting the happy back in Happy Valley, but questions do remain. First, only one opponent has been ranked (No. 24 Northwestern), and they haven’t faced a team with a defense ranked in the top-30 nationally in total yards allowed.

Senior quarterback Matt McGloin has really improved the last five games with 1,331 passing yards, 65.9 completion percentage, and 10 TDs versus just one pick. They are going to need to throw again to win Saturday as the rushing offense (149.3 YPG, ranked 77th) misses Silas Redd who transferred to USC.

Ohio State (8-0 SU, 3-5 ATS) lived on the edge last week with a 29-22 OT home win over Purdue. The Boilermakers led 22-14 before the Buckeyes sent it into the extra session with a touchdown and 2-point conversion with three seconds left.

Quarterback Braxton Miller (head) got knocked out of the game at the end of the third quarter and it was seldom-used junior Kenny Guiton who was the hero late. Miller is listed as probable on the Don Best injury report, which is a major boost for OSU fans despite Guiton’s dramatics.

The Buckeyes didn’t come close to covering the 17-point spread against Purdue and are 1-5 ATS this year as 15½-35½ point favorites. They’re 2-0 SU and ATS in games with small spreads, beating Nebraska at home (63-38 as 2½-point favorites) and winning at Michigan State (17-16 as 2-point ‘dogs).

Miller forms a great running tandem with Carlos Hyde and his passing is underrated even if he did struggle last week (9-of-20, 113 yards and a pick) before being injured.

Ohio State’s defense ranks just 63rd nationally (393.4 YPG) and needs to step up in the hostile environment especially if Miller is still getting the cobwebs out. Penn State’s defense ranks 22nd in total yards (322.7 YPG), but the quality of competition is once again a factor.

The Buckeyes are ranked No. 9 by the AP, while Penn State is just outside the top-25 in that poll. The Don Best Linemakers Poll will be updated today and Penn State is trying to crack its top-30 (OSU is 12th).

The road team has done well in this matchup recently at 4-1 SU and ATS. Ohio State won the last two at Penn State in 2009 (24-7) and 2007 (37-17).

The ‘under’ is 6-2 in the last eight meetings

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Georgia Bulldogs Up Next For Unbeaten Florida Gators

Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs
College Football Betting Preview
Date: 10/27/2012, 3:30 p.m. (ET) CBS
Opening Lines: Florida -5, O/U 48

Florida Gators: Will Muschamp's crew is looking better and better with each game, and continues to hold the No. 2 slot of the BCS rankings behind Alabama in the second week of the poll. Florida (7-0 straight up, 6-1 against the spread) is on a 6-game run on the gridiron as well as at the window in SEC play, and can clinch the SEC East title with a victory on Saturday. The latest was a 44-11 whipping of South Carolina last Saturday after being installed only as a 3-point favorite. The Gators benefitted greatly from four Gamecock turnovers, putting up only 183 yards of total offense but also holding SC to under 200. Florida will try and get its running game going once again against a Georgia defense that is a middling 74th in the land stopping infantry attacks. The Gators have won 11 of last 14 in this series to at least pull this series closer regardless of which side you believe for the all-time record (Georgia 48-40-2).

Georgia Bulldogs: Mark Richt's club is designated as the home team for this year's meeting, but the 'Dogs (6-1 SU, 2-5 ATS) will most certainly be at a crowd disadvantage here in the Sunshine State. Georgia hasn't made friends with bettors either, dropping the cash each of the last three and 1-4 ATS since an early win at Mizzou. The Bulldogs barely scored enough on their own to match a -26 spread at Kentucky, and needed an Aaron Murray TD pass midway through the final quarter to secure a 29-17 victory. The running game has grinded to a halt the last two weeks with a combined 192 yards, well below the current 205 per game that still ranks 30th-best in the country. Getting it going again against the tough Gators stop unit that is 10th against the run (97.3 ypg) will indeed be a challenge. The Dawgs snapped a 3-year losing streak against Florida in 2011 with a 24-20 win and cover as 3-point chalk. That game failed to reach the total (47½) to stop a 4-year 'over' run. The Bulldogs are 5-2 'over' through their first seven games.

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Notre Dame Puts 7-0 Mark On Line At Oklahoma

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Oklahoma Sooners College Football Betting Preview
Date: 10/27/2012, 8:00 p.m. (ET) ABC
Opening Lines: Oklahoma -9½, O/U 47½

Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Head coach Brian Kelly has the Irish (7-0 straight up, 4-3 against the spread) back in the National Championship picture after more than a decade of mediocrity. Since opening 0-2 last season, Notre Dame has won 15 of 18 contests, and the 7-0 start to the 2012 campaign is their best since beginning the 2002 season with an 8-0 record. The Irish have failed to cover the last two games as healthy home chalk vs. Stanford and BYU, but their stout defense that is holding opponents under 10 points per game has helped turn a profit for 'under' bettors who have cashed each of the last six contests. Theo Riddick and Cierre Wood provided most of the offense a week ago with each running back going over 100 yards on the ground. The offense hopes to get a spark this week with the expected return of soph QB Everett Golson who is probable after missing the win over BYU with a concussion.

Oklahoma Sooners: Saturday's contest takes place 56 years to the day since Oklahoma skunked the Irish on their field for the Sooners' only victory in the series that ND has a 9-1 all-time lead. The teams met nine times in the 50s and 60s before a 31-season hiatus between the schools came to stop in 1999, Bob Stoops' first season in Norman, and Notre Dame fought back for a 34-30 win in front of Touchdown Jesus. The Sooners (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) have bounced back in a big way with three straight wins and covers since being upset at home by Kansas State in Week 4. Landry Jones and the OU offense have amassed close to 500 yards per game and averaged 52 points per game in the stretch to help send all three games 'over' the total. The defense has also done its part with three takeaways in each game, but that will be difficult to repeat with Notre Dame coughing it just eight times all season and tied for 12th in the country with a +9 turnover margin. Oklahoma's offense will also be facing the 6th-ranked defense in the country (280 ypg), holding opposing QBs to a 97.2 rating (8th lowest).

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Arizona Wildcats Eye Upset Of USC Trojans

After more than month’s worth of games vs. mediocre opposition with all the intensity of midweek scrimmages, we finally get to see if Southern Cal (6-1 straight up, 2-5 vs. line; ranked No. 7 in latest Don Best Linemakers Poll) can handle a bit of pressure and adversity better than its lone earlier serious test at Stanford.

Meanwhile, if coach Rich Rodriguez thought he had lit the fuse for the dormant Arizona (4-3 straight up and against the number) program in an early September home upset win over Oklahoma State, he can detonate that explosive device within Wildcat Nation with another upset over Lane “Tosh.O” Kiffin (there’s a resemblance, no?) and the loathsome Trojans on Saturday in Tucson.

A quick check of the Don Best college football odds screen notes that visiting Southern Cal is priced as a 6½-point favorite, with the posted total at 65 shaded to the ‘under’ at most Nevada wagering outlets.

Kickoff time on Saturday at Wildcat Stadium will be 3:30 p.m. (ET), with ABC providing regional TV coverage.

Most eyes in this matchup will be focused upon the Trojans, who have qualified as a tad of disappointment to this point in the season. That’s partly reflected in only two spread covers in their first seven games (and no covers in their first four away from the L.A. Coliseum), as well as a capitulation to a physical Stanford team on September 15, the only team with a winning record that SC has faced with a mostly-soft schedule to date.

But the slate turns nasty beginning this week in Tucson, where Arizona is first in a five-game gauntlet to close the regular season that also includes unbeaten Oregon, Arizona State plus old, nasty rivals UCLA and Notre Dame. All of these upcoming opponents, including the Wildcats, have winning records and should be bowl-bound. Moreover, Southern Cal could also participate in the Pac-12 title game the first week of December should it win the South Division of the conference.

Thus, the Trojans also have a clear path to the BCS, but even if they win out, a spot in the national title game would require help from a variety of outside sources, as SC is currently well back in the queue of potential championship game candidates.

We all know about Trojan senior QB Matt Barkley and his decision to return for a final year with Troy rather than make the jump to the NFL last season. But Barkley’s expected cruise to the Heisman Trophy took a detour in the 21-14 loss at Stanford when completing only 20-of-41 passes with no TD passes and two picks. Successive so-so efforts were finally followed by a blockbuster six TD pass performance last week against Colorado, a game in which Barkley completed 19-of-20 passes.

But many Pac-12 insiders insist the woeful Buffs are not much more than a Big Sky-quality opponent, and the thought persists that Kiffin is going out of his way to pad Barkley’s TD pass stats in hopes of currying favor with the Heisman voters.

Of course, Barkley has NFL-caliber wideouts at his disposal in Marqise Lee (60 catches, 8 TDs) and Robert Woods (44 catches, 9 TDs). But neither is gaining expected yardage on their catches (Lee 13.1 ypc, Woods 11.2 ypc), suggesting that Kiffin is again playing the statistics game with his QB, hoping to pad the completion percentage. Barkley is not throwing deep as often as many Pac-12 onlookers predicted, perhaps to the detriment of an offense with two of the best defense-distorting receivers in college football.

Make no mistake, however, this remains a potent attack, with future NFL talent throughout the lineup. Penn State transfer RB Silas Redd is also beginning to make an impact, now with 583 rush yards. Still, despite this overflow of talent, Southern Cal does not rank among the nation’s offensive leaders, a modest 47th in total offense (421 ypg) and 34th in scoring at 34.9 ppg, not chopped liver but hardly running at the capacity many envisioned.

Kiffin’s play-calling, which many believe puts too much emphasis on Barkley’s stats, has come under scrutiny.

Moreover, the Trojan defense, coordinated by Lane’s papa Monte and employing the elder Kiffin’s pet “Tampa Two” cover schemes imported from te NFL, has not been severely tested yet in 2012 after springing many leaks this season. A series of pedestrian offenses have failed to adequately test a stop unit that has nonetheless been on its heels on a couple of occasions, bullet-riddled by erratic Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib (who passed for 322 yards) at the Meadowlands on September 15 before the rebuilt defensive front buckled the following week against the punishing Stanford infantry that pounded out 213 yards rushing.

Now SC is going to face some real offenses, beginning with Arizona’s.

The Trojans have not had to deal with the sort of spread-option employed by Rich-Rod’s 'Cats, the same system that Rodriguez installed several years ago in his most-decorated career coaching stop at West Virginia. Senior QB Matt Scott has proven a perfect fit for the Rodriguez offense and present the sort of dual-threat QB the Trojans have yet to face this season (more so than Washington’s Keith Price).

All Scott has done is rank fourth in national total offense stats, already passing for 2,355 yards and 17 TDs while adding another 265 rush yards. A collection of rangy wideouts led by Dan Buckner and Austin Hill (both 44 catches) could stretch Monte Kiffin’s pass coverage beyond recognition.

Indeed, the Wildcats rank fifth nationally in total offense (549 yards per game) and passing offense (353 yards per game) and have scored 39 ppg, including 59 in the aforementioned early-season home blowout over Oklahoma State, U of A’s signature win this season. The Wildcats surpassed the half-century mark again last week in a 52-17 home blowout over Washington, which had played Southern Cal much closer the previous week in Seattle (losing only 24-14).

The 'Cats do have some defensive issues, however, ranking 104th overall (465 yards per game) and having conceded over 30 ppg. But considering that Arizona has faced the likes of ranked teams such as Ok State, plus Oregon, Oregon State and Stanford, the defensive numbers are not too surprising. And after having seen all of those offenses, confronting SC’s firepower won’t cause Arizona to blink, especially if the blitzing unnerves the slow-footed Barkley.

Series trends between these two are also potentially illuminating, with the underdog side covering the last seven meetings. Considering that Arizona has been the dog side (and spread winner) in six of those meetings, the technical case for the Wildcats has some merit to it as well.

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Unbeatens Collide When Alabama Hosts Mississippi State

Prior to the start of the regular season, talk of a potential showdown between unbeatens in the SEC West focused upon Alabama’s early-November trip to LSU in a rematch of last season’s BCS title game.

Mississippi State? Nowhere to be found in summer speculation about being involved in any showdown of SEC unbeatens after midseason.

But, entering the last weekend of October, here are Dan Mullen’s Bulldogs, without a loss and preparing for arguably the biggest gridiron showdown in MSU history. About all that is missing for the Maroon is the gravely voice of longtime play-by-play man Jack Cristil, who retired last year after 58 seasons as the voice of the Bullies.

Cristil, however, along with everyone else in the SEC and elsewhere in the college football world will be paying close attention to Saturday night’s game in Tuscaloosa between Mississippi State (7-0 straight up, 5-2 against the line; No. 19 in latest Don Best Linemakers poll) and the host Crimson Tide (7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS, No. 1 in Don Best Linemakers rankings).

A quick check of the Don Best college football odds screen notes that Alabama is priced as a prohibitive 24-point favorite at the majority of Las Vegas sports books, with the total posted at mostly on 47½. Kickoff time for this SEC West showdown (Game 137-138 on this week’s Don Best schedule) has been switched to the evening at 8:30 p.m. (ET) at Bryant-Denny Stadium, with ESPN providing national TV coverage.

At first glance, the price might seem a bit heavy, considering the respective straight-up records of the two sides. But we don’t have to dig too far into the weeds to understand why 'Bama is laying such a heavy price. No one has caused the defending national champion Tide to as much as blink this season, as Nick Saban’s squad had manhandled even its supposed toughest challengers, such as Michigan and Tennessee, vanquished by a combined 85-27.

Moreover, MSU’s 7-0 break from the gate has been compiled against a slate of less-then-impressive opposition, including three non-conference foes from the Sun Belt as well as lower-division Jackson State. Even the Bulldogs’ SEC tests have been rather easy, having beaten three of the winless teams in conference play Auburn, Kentucky and disappointing Tennessee. Lots of folks in the region expect Mississippi State to get its comeuppance this week.

For the Bulldogs to have a chance, junior QB Tyler Russell has to continue in mostly mistake-free mode. Russell, piloting more of a short-pass, ball-control version of the Mullen spread than in previous years, has tossed only one pick as opposed to 15 TD passes, and limiting mistakes will be a necessity for MSU to stay within earshot on Saturday.

Indeed, the Bulldogs’ +17 turnover margins ranks as the nation’s best entering this week.

Russell, however, is also going to have to solve an Alabama defense that has not skipped a beat after so many of last year’s starters moved on to the NFL. All Saban’s 2012 stop unit has done is lead the nation in rushing (58.7 ypg), total (195.6 ypg), and scoring (8.3 ppg) defense. And since last season, only one team (Georgia Southern, if you can believe it) has scored more than 14 points on defensive coordinator Kirby Smart's defense.

Moreover, whatever advantage the Bulldogs have in TO margin is negated against this foe because, among other things, Alabama also ranks third nationally in the same category (at +14). And the Crimson Tide offense, operating behind perhaps the nation’s best OL, is scoring more points than it did last year, too, tallying 41 ppg while its rushing offense is gaining nearly 220 yards per game behind RBs Eddie Lacy (570 YR) and frosh sensation T.J. Yeldon (565 YR).

Meanwhile, one-upping Tyler Russell, Bama junior QB A.J. McCarron is now working on a stretch of 239 passes without an interception since late last season and has emerged as a possible Heisman candidate while completing 69 percent of his passes, with 16 TD tosses and no picks.

The Tide has not lost to MSU since 2007, when Saban’s first 'Bama team fell to a rugged Sly Croom-coached Bulldog outfit by a 17-12 scoreline in Starkville. Since then, Alabama has won the last four meetings by a combined 117-27 margin. The Crimson Tide covered the number in the first three of those meetings before barely failing to do so in last year’s 24-7 win (as an 18-point favorite) at Starkville. If there is a technical note of caution for Tide backers this week, it’s that the road team has covered the spread in the first seven Alabama games this season, including three spread failures by the Tide in Tuscaloosa.

Totals-wise, note that MSU has been ‘under’ in five of six decisions in 2012, and all five meetings between the sides since Saban arrived at 'Bama in 2007 have been ‘under’ as well.

[StarDust Bum]

Unbeaten Mississippi St. visits No. 1 Alabama Saturday

MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS (7-0)
at ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (7-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Alabama -24, Total: 46.5

A pair of unbeaten SEC foes will lock horns Saturday night when No. 11 Mississippi State visits No.1 Alabama.

Alabama is 9-2 SU (5-6 ATS) in the past 11 meetings, including four straight wins by a combined score of 117 to 27. Last year was the closest of the four, a 24-7 Tide road win. Unbeaten Mississippi State leads the nation in turnover margin (+17) and is riding a three-game ATS win streak with 113 points (37.7 PPG) during this run. Alabama leads the nation in scoring defense (8.3 PPG) and total defense (196 YPG), while A.J. McCarron leads all FBS quarterbacks in passing efficiency (69% completions, 9.6 YPA, 16 TD, 0 INT).

Can the Tide cover this lofty spread against undefeated Mississippi State? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

McCarron has not thrown an interception in 239 straight passes, but the last time he was picked off was 2011 against Mississippi State, when he completed just 14-of-24 passes for 163 yards (6.8 YPA) with 0 TD. However, he didn't need to be great considering Alabama outrushed MSU that day 223 to 12. Eddie Lacy had 96 of those rushing yards on just 11 carries (8.7 YPC) with two touchdowns. Lacy has rushed for 570 yards (5.8 YPC) and 7 TD this season, and has started to help out the passing game too with eight receptions in his past three games (he had one catch in the first four contests). Speaking of receptions, freshman WR Amari Cooper is emerging into a star. In his four SEC games, he has 21 catches for 351 yards and five touchdowns. Alabama's defense has not allowed more than 80 rushing yards in a game this year, and Tennessee became the first team to throw for more than 200 yards against them last week with 203 passing yards. The Tide have also been able to force multiple turnovers in six of seven games this year, totaling 20 takeaways.

Mississippi State, which has won nine straight games (6-3 ATS), has enjoyed great offensive balance all season, rushing for 181 YPG and throwing for 236 YPG, but turning the ball over just five times in seven contests. QB Tyler Russell has tossed just one interception all season despite 203 throws. In three SEC games, he's passed for 261 YPG, 7 TD and 0 INT. Last week against Middle Tennessee, Russell went 17-of-21 for 191 yards and 3 TD. However, he threw for just 110 yards on 25 pass attempts (4.4 YPA) in the loss to Alabama last year. MSU has the conference's leading rusher in Ladarius Perkins (103 rush YPG), who has three straight 100-yard efforts and has scored at least once in all seven games in 2012. He's seen limited action in two career games versus the Tide, carrying the ball just 13 times for 54 yards (4.2 YPC). Defensively, the Bulldogs have allowed just 14.4 PPG (9th in nation) and 327 total YPG (26th in FBS), but they have not sustained a consistent pass rush with just 1.6 sacks per game and 5.1 Tackles For Loss per game, both which rank 12th in the SEC.

[StarDust Bum]

No. 9 USC seeks 5th straight win visiting Arizona

USC TROJANS (6-1)
at ARIZONA WILDCATS (4-3)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: USC -6.5, Total: 65.5

No. 9 USC tries to extend a four-game win streak when it visits Arizona on Saturday afternoon.

USC is 9-1 SU (5-5 ATS) in the past 10 meetings with Arizona, including five straight SU wins in Tucson. The Wildcats hung tough in L.A. last year, gaining 554 yards in a 48-41 loss. Trojans QB Matt Barkley was 32-of-39 for 468 yards and 4 TD in that game, and was even better last week versus Colorado (19-for-20, 298 yards, 6 TD) in a 50 to 6 victory. Arizona snapped a three-game losing skid last week with a 52-17 drubbing of Washington. Matt Scott has 1,150 passing yards and 10 TD over the past three games.

Can USC win comfortably on the road in Tucson? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Barkley is now firmly back in the Heisman discussion with 10 TD and just 1 INT in his past three games. Although he lit up Arizona last year, he didn't play very well in his lone visit to Tucson in 2010, completing 21-of-35 passes for just 170 yards (4.9 YPA), 1 TD and 1 INT. However, WR Robert Woods was also limited at Arizona in 2010 with just 41 receiving yards on eight catches. However, Woods burned the Wildcats for 14 catches, 255 yards and 2 TD last year, and is coming off his best game of 2012, grabbing eight passes for 132 yards and four touchdowns. Teammate Marqise Lee leads the Pac-12 and ranks in the top-10 nationally in both receptions (8.6 per game) and receiving yards (112 YPG). USC has not run the football very effectively on the road this year, gaining just 120 rushing YPG on 3.6 yards per carry. Leading ground gainer Silas Redd (583 rush yds, 6 TD) has yet to rush for 100 yards in back-to-back games, with a season-low 13 rushing yards (on just three carries) last week. Defensively, the Trojans have allowed just 301 total YPG with 14 forced turnovers during their four-game win streak. They also have the fifth-most sacks in the country (27) and are tied for 12th among all FBS teams with 7.7 Tackles For Loss per game. DE Morgan Breslin anchors the D-Line with seven sacks and 32 tackles this season.

Scott ranks fourth in the nation with 374 YPG of total offense, but he has thrown seven interceptions in his four Pac-12 games this year. He has never played against USC's relentless pass rush, but he knows that he has a ground game strong enough to keep the Trojans honest. Arizona rushed for 277 yards on 49 carries (5.7 YPC) in last week's demolition of Washington, including 172 yards on 5.9 YPC from Ka'Deem Carey. That was Carey's fifth 100-yard game this season, including three straight. He is also a weapon catching passes out of the backfield with 138 receiving yards in these past three games. Although the Wildcats' defense held Washington to 17 points and 370 yards last week, they have been among the worst teams in the nation in terms of total defense, allowing 465 total YPG (107th in FBS). They generate just 1.4 sacks per game, but have forced eight turnovers in the past four weeks.