The Bum's October's College Football Best Bets !

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NCAAF

Short Sheet

Week 7

Friday, October 12, 2012

Navy at Central Michigan, 8:00 ET ESPN2
Navy: 48-19 ATS as a road underdog
Central Michigan: 0-8 ATS off a conference game

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Friday, October 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Navy - 8:00 PM ET Navy +1 500

Central Michigan - Under 58 500

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 7

Saturday's games

Top games

Have to wonder about quality of Texas’ defense, allowing 31-36-48 points in last three games, with 31 points allowed to Ole Miss the most alarming number; Longhorns lost last two years to Oklahoma (55-17/28-20); 11 of last 14 series games were decided by 10+ points. Sooners have already had two bye weeks- their game in Lubbock last week was fairly easy win, while Texas is playing third tough foe (Okla State/WVa) in a row. Longhorns are 15-17 vs spread as favorites since ’09. Texas covered just twice in last six games as a dog; since ’08, they’re 5-7 vs spread in game following a loss.

Wisconsin won its last six games with Purdue, covering by average of 13 points (average score last four years, 38-9); Badgers bamboozled Purdue 62-17 LY, running ball for 364 yards, passing for 241. Wisconsin is a bully team though, and they’re 0-2 on road this year, losing at both Oregon State/Nebraska by a FG, gaining under 300 TY in both games- they’re 9-15-1 vs spread in last 25 road games. Purdue was held to 17-13 points in its two losses (ND/Michigan); they scored 54-51 in two I-A wins, both vs stiffs- they’re 10-13-1 vs spread at home under Hope. Big Dozen home teams are 6-4 vs spread in league play.

Northwestern won four of last five games with Minnesota, winning 29-28/24-17 in last two visits here; underdogs covered last four series games, four of last five played here. Wildcats were 5-0 until blowing 28-17 4th quarter lead at Penn State last week; have to worry about defense that gave up 41 to Syracuse, 29 to Indiana- they wore down late last week. Northwestern is 2-7-1 in last ten games as a road favorite. Gophers had last week off- they’re 15-19 vs spread in last 34 home games (since ’06, 9-9 as home underdogs), but 2-0 this year- all three of their I-A wins are by 7 or less points (UNLV/WMich/Syracuse).

Louisville is 5-0, but its last three wins are by 5-7-4 points, so not like they’re worldbeaters, having trailed winless Southern Miss at half and being tied at FIU at half; they had last week off, while Pitt was losing Friday night game 14-13 at Syracuse. Cardinals are 10-3 vs spread on road under Strong, 0-2 this year, but both non-covers were as double digit favorites. Panthers are 2-3 with loss to a I-AA team; they won their last four games vs Louisville by average score of 29-9-- favorites covered five of last seven series games. Pitt covered six of last seven tries as a home underdog. Nationwide, home dogs are 22-25 vs spread in league play.

Huge trap/sandwich game for Florida, which has beaten Vanderbilt 21 straight times, but is off huge LSU win, with South Carolina on deck; Gators won last 10 visits here by average of 20 points (55-14/42-14 last two visits), but are 4-6 vs spread in last 10 series games overall. Florida covered 10 of last 14 games as an SEC favorite. Vandy covered last four tries as a home underdog; they upset dysfunctional SEC newbie Missouri last week, but have scored just 12 ppg vs I-A opponents. In its three toughest games, A&M/Tennessee/LSU, Florida outscored them 51-6 in second half, a huge number. SEC home dogs are 4-3 against spread.

Kansas State is 5-0 with win at Oklahoma and 52-13 win over Miami; since ’04, Wildcats are just 3-11 vs spread as road favorites, so interesting trap game for them here, on Iowa state campus where K-State lost last visit as 15-point road favorites five years ago. Wildcats beat ISU last four years since then, but 38-30 was widest margin of victory. Cyclones are 11-9 in last 20 games as home underdogs; they’ve got wins at Iowa/TCU, but took advantage of Frogs’ QB’s suspension last week. Iowa State was outgained by 105 yards in LW’s win, gained just 189 TY in home loss to Texas Tech game before that. Big X home teams are 2-8 vs spread in conference play this year, 1-3 if underdogs.

Auburn is 0-3 in SEC play for first time in 30+ years, running ball for just 72.3 yards/game in conference games; they lost 24-7 at home to a horrible Arkansas team last week, so major problems for Tiger squad that covered only once in last seven away games- they’re 3-10 vs spread in last 13 tries as a road underdog. Auburn won 10 of last 12 games vs Ole Miss, winning last three by average score of 42-25; favorites are 7-4 vs spread in last 11 series games. Rebels allowed 43 ppg in last three games vs BCS-level foes, but went toe-to-toe with A&M last week before losing 30-27. Ole Miss is 11-7 in last 18 games as a home favorite. SEC home favorites are 6-5 against spread.

Favorites covered last ten Fresno-Boise games, with Boise winning last six by average score of 50-18; Bulldogs lost last five visits here (0-5 vs spread) by average score of 51-14, but gap seems to have narrowed little this year, with Fresno revitalized under new coach DeRuyter; they’ve covered six in row as road underdog since last visit here in ’10. Hard to tell lot about Boise since teams they’ve beaten are poor; they led 25-0 at half at improved New Mexico, but had to hang on for 32-29 win. Broncos are 1-7 in last eight games as home favorite, after covering 26 of previous 40. Home teams covered four of first five MWC league games this season.

Bad schedule spot for Stanford here, off wild OT win over league rival Arizona last week (gave up 491 passing yards), with arch-rival Cal on deck (first time in decades game hasn’t been in November). Cardinal won last three games vs Notre Dame, scoring 36.7 ppg, but this Irish team is playing stellar defense, allowing total of 12 points in last three games (Michigan/Mich St/Miami). Since ’03, ND is 16-29-2 vs spread as a home favorite. Stanford, which lost 17-13 at Washington in only previous road game, is 3-7 vs spread in last 10 games as road underdog. Pac-12 road teams are 3-7 vs spread in non-league games, 2-3 if road underdogs.

Tennessee coach Dooley had operation for broken hip earlier this week, will coach from press box; his 3-2 Vols had last week off- they allowed 336-282 rushing yards in losses to Florida (37-20)/Georgia (51-44)- they’re 3-4 as road underdogs under Dooley. Vols won last five games vs Miss State by average score of 37-16, covering four of five (favored in all five), winning 33-21/35-17 here. Bulldogs are 6-4 vs spread in last 10 games as home favorite; they’re 5-0 this year but haven’t played good team yet (Auburn/Troy best two). SEC home favorites are 6-5 vs spread. Big game for Dooley here, with Bama/South Carolina games on deck.

South Carolina pummeled Georgia 35-7 LW, after lackluster effort at Kentucky (down 17-7 at half, won 38-17) week before; Gamecocks lost last four games with LSU by average score of 31-14, but teams haven’t met since 2008. Carolina is allowing just 10.5 ppg; they’re 12-8-1 as road underdogs under Spurrier but have bigger divisional game with Florida (Spurrier’s alma mater) up next. LSU got blanked in second half of 14-6 loss at Florida last week; they haven’t scored TD in last two SEC games (won 12-10 at Auburn, with shaky 36-22 win over I-AA Towson in between). Tigers are 18-27-1 as home favorites under Miles.

West Virginia (+6.5) won 48-45 in Austin LW, despite allowing defensive TD and converting only 3 of 12 on 3rd down; Holgorson returns to one of his old stomping grounds here, with WVa squad that is scoring 54.5 ppg vs I-A opponents. Problem is, they allowed 545 yards to Marshall, 700 to Baylor, so Texas Tech (4-1 after 41-20 home loss to Oklahoma LW) is live home dog (covered six of last eight as home underdog). WVa is 5-7-1 vs spread as road favorite since RichRod left town; this is second consecutive long trip for them, downside of new league. Big X favorites are 6-4 so far this year, 1-1 on road. Last two weeks, WVa was 35-35/27-28 at halftime, so they’re fun to watch.

5-0 Louisiana Tech has covered nine of last 11 games as home underdog; they already have wins at Illinois (52-24), Virginia (44-28), Houston (56-49), now go for home win over BCS squad, in game that was ppd Sept 8, because of hurricane; Bulldogs lost last five games with A&M, losing 48-16 (+19) on road in last meeting in ’10- they’re scoring 53.2 ppg, gaining 598+ TY in three of five games. Aggies came from behind LW to win 30-27 (-13) at Ole Miss, despite turning ball over six times- they ran ball for 290 yards. Since ’08, A&M is 5-6 as road favorite. SEC non-conference favorites are 10-15 vs spread, 4-2 on road. WAC underdogs are 8-6, 2-1 at home.


Other Notes
-- Iowa covered eight of its last ten games with Michigan State.
-- Miami Hurricanes covered only four of last 12 home games.
-- Road team covered seven of last eight Bowling Green-Miami games.
-- UCF is 21-10-1 vs spread in its last 32 home games.

-- Favorite covered seven of last eight Oklahoma State-Kansas games.
-- Army covered six of its last seven home games.
-- Virginia covered five of its last six games with Maryland.
-- Rutgers covered five of its last seven games with Syracuse.

-- Florida is 4-11 vs spread as an ACC home favorite.
-- East Carolina covered its last ten games with Memphis.
-- Road team covered 10 of last 14 Air Force-Wyoming games.
-- Oregon State QB Mannion (knee) isn’t expected to play this week.
-- Alabama covered 12 of its last 17 games as an SEC road favorite.

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No. 9 LSU hosts No. 3 South Carolina Saturday

SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (6-0)
at LSU TIGERS (5-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: LSU -2½, Total: 39½

No. 3 South Carolina seeks its 11th straight victory when it travels to Baton Rouge Saturday night for a showdown with a No. 9 LSU team riding a long home win streak.

The Tigers have won 21 straight home games and are 16-2-1 SU all-time versus the Gamecocks, but one of those losses came in 1930. South Carolina has surpassed 20 points just once in these 19 meetings, the last of which occurred in 2008, a 24-17 Tigers win. The Gamecocks destroyed Georgia 35-7 last week, marking their fifth straight ATS win and putting them at 8-2 ATS during the current 10-game SU win streak. Connor Shaw threw for 162 yards on just six completions and scored 3 total TD against the Bulldogs. LSU is on a three-game ATS skid, committing eight turnovers during this stretch and gaining a paltry 200 total yards (42 rushing) in a 14-6 loss at Florida last week.

Who will win this clash of top-10 schools? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Shaw has been unbelievably accurate in SEC play, completing 80% of his passes for 10.4 yards per attempt, 6 TD and just 1 INT in the four conference wins. Star RB Marcus Lattimore has also stepped up his game recently with back-to-back 100-yard rushing games, showing that his knee is close to 100 percent after tearing his ACL last year. Lattimore has scored at least one touchdown in 12 of the 13 games he's played in the past two seasons. Sophomore DE Jadeveon Clowney continues to lead this excellent defense, posting 6½ sacks and 11½ Tackles For Loss so far this season. South Carolina has allowed just 278 total yards per game, including 83 rushing YPG.

LSU's offensive woes in SEC play begin with QB Zach Mettenberger who is just 26-of-52 for 327 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT in the two conference games. However, the paltry ground game is just as troubling for Tigers fans, as they have decreased their rushing yards in each of the past four games, going from 250 to 182 to 158 to just 42 rushing yards last week. Kenny Hilliard leads the team with 382 rushing yards and 6 TD, but he has gotten only 11 carries over the past two weeks, picking up 39 yards in this limited workload. Defensively, LSU has been outstanding, allowing 14 points or less in each of its five games versus FBS opponents this year. The Tigers rank second in the nation with 122.5 passing YPG allowed and third in total defense (221 total YPG). They have done a nice job getting into the opposing backfield as well, tallying 2.7 sacks per game and 8.3 Tackles For Loss per game. LB Kevin Minter racked up 20 tackles (3 solo, 17 assists) in last week's loss to Florida, one shy of the school record.

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No. 11 USC visits Washington on Saturday

USC TROJANS (4-1)
at WASHINGTON HUSKIES (3-2)

Kickoff: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: USC -13, Total: 54½

No. 11 USC looks for its third straight victory when it travels to Seattle on Saturday to face a Washington team that is unbeaten at home.

USC is 8-2 SU (5-5 ATS) in the past 10 meetings, but those two losses have come in the past three years. Trojans QB Matt Barkley has just 180 passing YPG, 1 TD and 0 INT in his two games in this series, but is coming off a huge effort in a 38-28 win at Utah (23-of-30, 303 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT). The Huskies are 3-0 at home this year, allowing 12, 13, and 13 points at CenturyLink Field. However, they were crushed at Oregon last week, committing five turnovers and allowing 497 total yards in a 52-21 defeat in Eugene.

Can USC win by two touchdowns in a tough environment? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Barkley is nearing the Pac-12 conference record for career touchdown passes, needing just five more to surpass Matt Leinart's 99 TD throws. The record will have likely have to wait a week or two though, considering Washington has allowed just 174 passing YPG, which ranks second in the conference. However, the Huskies haven't faced a wide receiver duo quite as talented as Marqise Lee and Robert Woods. Lee leads the Pac-12 in both receptions (10.4 per game) and receiving yards (130 YPG), and he also had a field day against Washington last year with nine catches for 74 yards and a touchdown, while adding an 88-yard kickoff return for another score. Woods has yet to reach 100 receiving yards this year, something he was able to do seven times in 2011. His worst performance of last season came against these Huskies, as he caught just two passes for five yards. Woods did suffer a head injury last week, but is expected to start. It will be key for the Trojans to attack through the air, as both of their top running backs, Silas Redd (back) and Curtis McNeal (head) are both playing at less than 100 percent. Although the Trojans are allowing 225 passing yards per game, they have done a great job stuffing the run during the past two contests, allowing just 172 yards on 58 carries (3.0 YPC). USC has also forced at least two turnovers in each of its five games this year, totaling 12 takeaways.

Keith Price continues to struggle in 2012, completing less than 60% of his passes with 5 TD and 4 INT on the season. Last year, he set a school record with 33 TD throws, but USC was the only team that he did not throw a TD against. In that 40-17 defeat, Price completed 12-of-16 passes for 125 yards. The good news is that TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (254 rec. yds) is expected to play despite suffering a leg injury in last week's loss in Oregon. He and WR Kasen Williams (340 rec. yds, 3 TD) are the only two Huskies with as much as 70 receiving yards for the season. If Price remains ineffective, the offense will rely even more on sophomore RB Bishop Sankey to get the job done. Sankey has rushed for more than 100 yards in three straight games, scoring five times during this streak. The biggest problem for Washington's defense has been failure to sustain pressure on the quarterback, tallying a mere 1.4 sacks per game (11th in Pac-12) and 4.8 Tackles For Loss per contest (last in Pac-12). The defense has made its share of big plays though, with 10 takeaways in five games.

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No. 13 Oklahoma and No. 15 Texas clash Saturday

TEXAS LONGHORNS (4-1)
vs. OKLAHOMA SOONERS (3-1)

Cotton Bowl - Dallas, TX
Kickoff: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma -3½, Total: 61

The Red River Rivalry resumes on Saturday afternoon when No. 13 Oklahoma and No. 15 Texas hold their annual showdown at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas.

Oklahoma is 8-4 SU (7-4-1 ATS) in the past 12 meetings, including a 55-17 blowout last year. Landry Jones has thrown for 603 yards, 5 TD and 0 INT during OU’s two-game win streak in the series, but has gone seven straight games overall without reaching 300 passing yards. Texas has scored 50.7 PPG in its past three contests, but the defense has allowed an average of 38.3 PPG and 478 total YPG during this stretch. Longhorns QB David Ash is third in FBS passing efficiency with 1,276 yards, 11 TD and 1 INT.

Which team will leave Dallas with a big victory on Saturday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Ash is having a huge season, but he was dreadful in last year's game, completing just 11-of-20 passes for 107 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT, and finishing with minus-38 yards rushing. The Longhorns have missed top RB Malcolm Brown (ankle) for the majority of the past two games, as the team has rushed for just 271 yards on 81 carries (3.3 YPC). Brown is questionable for Saturday's game, which means sophomore Joe Bergeron will likely get the bulk of carries again. He has been held to fewer than 50 rushing yards in each of the past four games despite getting 11+ carries in each contest, totaling 195 yards on 54 carries (3.6 YPC). The Longhorns committed five turnovers in last year's Red River loss, but have just three giveaways over five games this season. The Texas defense has been giving up a boatload of yards recently, but it has also forced an average of two turnovers per game. In the past six meetings, Oklahoma has one total turnover in its three wins, but 12 miscues in its three losses, showing how important ball protection is for this series.

Jones needs to show some confidence in more than just his favorite receiver Kenny Stills, who has nearly twice the production of any of his teammates, catching 29 passes for 344 yards and 3 TD. Stills has been great in this series though, catching 10 passes for 129 yards and 3 TD in two meetings. Oklahoma's ground game has tailed off in the past two weeks with just 209 yards on 56 carries (3.7 YPC). Damien Williams has 82 rushing yards (3.4 YPC) and zero touchdowns in the past two weeks after starting the year with 259 rushing yards (13.0 YPC) and 5 TD. Williams did catch six passes for 82 yards in the 41-20 win over Texas Tech last week though. Senior RB Dominique Whaley has just 11 carries over the past two weeks, but he should be used more on Saturday based on his big performance against Texas last year, when he totaled 117 yards and a touchdown on just 17 touches. Defensively, Oklahoma was able to force three Red Raiders turnovers last week after tallying just one takeaway over its first three games. The pass defense has been outstanding all year, allowing just 160.5 passing YPG (9th in FBS), and the run defense was tough last week in holding TTU to just 89 yards on 32 carries (2.8 YPC).

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No. 17 Stanford tries to cool off No. 7 Notre Dame

STANFORD CARDINAL (4-1)
at NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (5-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Notre Dame -8, Total: 44½

Sizzling hot No. 7 Notre Dame looks to showcase its dominant defense when it hosts No. 17 Stanford on Saturday afternoon.

After losing seven in a row to Notre Dame from 2002-2008, Stanford has won three straight meetings, 45-38, 37-14 and 28-14 last year behind four Andrew Luck TD passes. Last week, it was Luck’s replacement Josh Nunes throwing for 360 yards and 2 TD in a 54-48 overtime win over Arizona. The Irish defense has been incredible during a three-game ATS win streak, allowing a total of 12 points to Michigan State, Michigan and Miami. Notre Dame also scored 41 points with 587 total yards versus the ‘Canes last week.

Can Stanford beat Notre Dame for the fourth straight year? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

After struggling at Washington (18-of-37, 170 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT), Nunes was outstanding in last week's win over Arizona, completing 21-of-34 passes for 360 yards and 2 TD, while rushing for 33 yards and three scores. Nunes will not likely have the services of WR Ty Montgomery (168 receiving yards), who is doubtful to play because of a lower body injury sustained last week. However, the key to Stanford's offense is wildly inconsistent RB Stepfan Taylor who has 555 rushing yards (including 142 last week), but hasn't put together two straight 100-yard games this year. But he does have consecutive century mark efforts against Notre Dame, galloping for 226 yards on 48 carries (4.7 YPC) in the past two meetings. Stanford's pass defense was atrocious last week, surrendering 491 passing yards, but it has been tough on the run all year, ranking seventh in the nation with 77.2 rushing YPG allowed. This low rushing number has been a product of the Cardinal's 2.8 sacks per game and 8.6 Tackles For Loss per game. Stanford has also done a nice job of creating turnovers with 11 takeaways over five games.

Everett Golson is coming off a great performance against Miami, completing 17-of-22 passes for 186 yards. He also ran for 51 yards on just six carries, helping the Irish surpass 125 rushing yards for the first time since their season opener. RBs Cierre Wood and George Atkinson III each topped 100 yards against the Hurricanes and combined for three touchdowns. However, Wood found little room to run against Stanford last year, gaining just 41 yards on 12 carries. The offense doesn't have a whole lot of pressure to score though, considering how tremendous the defense has been. Notre Dame is giving up just 7.8 points per game, three total touchdowns and 290 total yards per game, despite playing against Navy and four BCS conference members. LB Manti Te'o has been a tackling machine (9.5 per game), while adding two interceptions, three QB hurries and a fumble recovery. Sophomore DL Stephon Tuitt has anchored a stout defensive line, registering six sacks and five QB hurries in the five games. Notre Dame did not force a turnover last week, but tallied six takeaways versus Michigan in the prior game.

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No. 1 Alabama rolls into Missouri Saturday

ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (5-0)
at MISSOURI TIGERS (3-3)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Alabama -21, Total: 43½

The top team in the nation tries to win its 10th straight game overall when No. 1 Alabama visits struggling Missouri in search of its first-ever SEC win on Saturday.

The last meeting between these two teams was in 1978 when the Crimson Tide won 38-20. In 2012, Alabama has 33+ points in each game and hasn’t allowed more than 14 points, but is just 2-3 ATS due to some lofty spreads. The Tide’s past three opponents have averaged a paltry 155 total YPG. Missouri has alternated wins and losses all season, going 0-3 in SEC play and 3-0 in non-conference games, but has just one ATS win in its past five contests (1-3-1 ATS). Much of that has to do with a sputtering Tigers offense scoring just 18.0 PPG during this span. They gained 395 total yards last week, but scored only one touchdown in a 19-15 home loss to Vanderbilt.

Can Alabama cover this hefty number on the road? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

AJ McCarron is having an outstanding junior season, ranking fifth in the nation in passing efficiency (191.60). He has completed 66% of his passes for 999 yards, 12 TD and zero interceptions this year. Freshman Amari Cooper has been his favorite target, hauling in 17 catches for 222 yards and 3 TD on the year, after his season-high 84 yards and 2 TD in a 33-14 win over Ole Miss before last week's bye. Alabama's ground game hasn't been spectacular in 2012 (188 YPG, sixth in SEC), failing to reach 250 yards in any of its five contests. Last year, the Tide averaged 215 rushing YPG, which led the conference. Eddie Lacy has not been able to fill Trent Richardson's cleats, gaining a pedestrian 314 yards on 4.9 YPC for the season with zero touchdowns in his past two games. Freshman T.J. Yeldon has also been lackluster since the season opener, gaining just 181 yards on 39 carries (4.6 YPC) over four games. There is nothing wrong with the defense though, as the Tide lead the country in points allowed (7.0 PPG), yards allowed (192 YPG) and turnover margin (+2.4 TO per game). Thirteen different Alabama players have recorded at least 0.5 sacks this season, and the Tide have already picked off an SEC-most nine passes.

Missouri QB James Franklin will not play because of a sprained left knee, leaving redshirt freshman Corbin Berkstresser as the starter versus the best defense in the nation. Berkstresser has actually seen playing time in five of six games this year and his overall numbers are decent: 42-of-84, 501 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT. He has also rushed for a pair of scores. However, Berkstresser completed just 9-of-30 passes in the loss to Vandy. The good thing about Missouri's passing offense is that several receivers are capable of helping him out. Seven different players have already exceeded 100 receiving yards for the season. If the Tigers are to hang in with the mighty Tide, it will have to be senior RB Kendial Lawrence that carries them. He rushed for 92 yards last week, giving him 487 rushing yards (5.7 YPC) and five touchdowns for the season. Missouri's defense is led by a fierce front seven that has not allowed 150 rushing yards in any game this season. The Tigers have also forced 14 turnovers, which has helped offset the 219 passing YPG they've allowed (10th in SEC). Missouri averages 8.8 Tackles For Loss per game, which ranks third in the nation.

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Road Warriors

October 10, 2012

Deep Six Angle

With the season approaching the mid way point, let’s take one final look at expanding our bankroll with college football teams in Game 6 situations.

Our well-oiled database reports a turning point for 3-2 or better teams that take to the road when playing off one-loss exact. They win and continue with the prospects of donning bowling shirts, or they lose and begin entertaining visions of staying home for the holidays. Thus these become pivotal games on each team’s schedule.

These Game Six travelers, playing off one-loss exact, respond with vigor in the Game Six scenarios going 89-59-2 ATS in all games since 1980.

That’s represents a rock solid 60% wining spread mark.

This week finds qualifying three teams taking to the road, namely Middle Tennessee State, TCU and Tennessee.

Middle Tennessee State at Florida International
TCU at Baylor
Tennessee at Georgia

Better yet, when priced as dogs in competitive situations (+10 or fewer points) they improve to 38-18-1 ATS (68%).

The best role occurs when these same visitors take on a foe sporting a winning record as they improve to 27-10-1 ATS (73%) in these spirited contests.

TCU (+8) and Tennessee (+3) look to be ‘devilish’ sides on this week’s card. Good luck…

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ACC Report - Week 7

October 10, 2012

Last week, my positive cash streak in the ACC was put in serious, serious jeopardy. If you bet Clemson, and didn't see the final minute, you should be very pleased. The Tigers were laying 10 1/2-11 points, and were up nine with just about 50 seconds remaining. They had the ball first and goal at the Georgia Tech 5, and the Yellow Jackets had no timeouts. Had the ball been at the 50, or inside Clemson territory, etc. - they likely would have knelt and ended the game.

However, the Tigers had some difficulty handling the ball inside the 5 earlier in the game, and in past weeks, so unorthodox head coach Dabo Swinney kept his offense on the field to get game-time red zone practice. Clemson ended up punching it in, albeit with reserves, to go up 16, thus covering the number. Thankfully that happened, because I was duped into believing Miami had a chance against Notre Dame, and easily lost that one.

Joe Williams's ACC Season Picks:
Period: 8/31/2012 to 10/10/2012
Pick Type: All Picks
Record: 15-7-0 ( 68.2% , +720)

PICK DETAILS
Week Record Total
Week 6 (Oct. 4-6) 2-1 Won (+90)
Week 5 (Sept. 27-29) 3-1 Won (+190)
Week 4 (Sept. 19-22) 3-1 Won (+190)
Week 3 (Sept. 13-15) 3-2 Won (+80)
Week 2 (Sept. 6-8) 2-1 Won (+90)
Week 1 (Aug. 31-Sept. 3) 2-1 Won (+80)

Saturday - North Carolina at Miami (Fla.) (ESPNU, 2:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Five-Star Game

The Tar Heels are coming off an impressive home win against Virginia Tech, squaring their ACC record at 1-1. As such, they need this game badly, as the Hurricanes are sitting pretty at 3-0 atop the Coastal Division despite an awful thumping at the hands of Notre Dame last weekend. The Tar Heels are just 1-5 ATS in their past six road games, and 1-6 ATS in their past seven road games against a team with a winning record. On the other side, while the Hurricanes have been absolutely thrashed, failing to come close to covering in two marquee non-conference games against K-State and ND, they are 5-1 ATS in their past six conference games, including a perfect 3-0 ATS mark against ACC foes this season. Remember, though, that the Tar Heels are 5-2-1 ATS in the past eight meetings, and the underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight battles between the sides. Basically, all of these line trends scream stay away. However, playing the total might make more sense. The over is 5-2 in UNC's past seven games overall, and 4-0 in their past four October contests (including last week). The over is 4-1 in Miami's past five games, and 8-3 in their past 11 conference battles. In addition, the over has cashed in four of the previous five meetings.

Saturday - Duke at Virginia Tech (Gameplan/ESPN3, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Four-Star Game

The Duke Blue Devils are starting to look for real, or they have just taken advantage of a semi-soft schedule. We'll definitely get a better feel for Duke this weekend against a damaged, yet still dangerous, Virginia Tech team at Lane Stadium in Blacksburg. Duke winning at Virginia Tech looked like a pipe dream earlier in the season, but they legitimately have a shot, especially if QB Sean Renfree (elbow) can get back to 100 percent. The Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their past four games since being thumped by Stanford on the road earlier this season. However, while at home Duke has been the play, they are just 1-4 ATS in their past five trips away from Wallace Wade Stadium. However, the Hokies are a dismal 1-4 ATS in their past five conference games, including a pasting at UNC last week. They are just 3-13 ATS in their past 16 games on grass, and 0-3-1 in their past four games against teams with a winning record. Could Duke really go to Virginia Tech and win? If so, they'd become bowl eligible for the first time since appearing in the 1994 Hall of Fame Bowl (now the Outback Bowl) against Wisconsin.

Saturday - Boston College at Florida State (ESPN2, 5:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Three-Star Game

Poor Boston College. They will be walking into a hornet's nest in Tallahassee Saturday afternoon, facing a very angry Seminoles team that was neutered in Raleigh last Saturday night by N.C. State. The 'Noles blew a 16-0 lead, and fell 17-16 in one of the biggest upsets of this season, likely losing all hope of a national championship in the process. What looked like an almost impenetrable defense early in the season allowed the Wolfpack to march downfield for a late game-winning touchdown, leaving most garnet and gold supporters to wonder what might have been. As for BC, well...they just stink. They are 0-2 on the road this season, including a setback against Army last week. If they were to turn their season around, they needed to win at West Point last weekend. If they couldn't handle Army, one has to think they're going to have a whale of a time trying to stop FSU's skill players. The line is just 27.5, and that could easily be erased by halftime. While BC has a semi-respectable offense, led by QB Chase Rettig, their defense is just poor. FSU should mash them in their bounce-back week. If you're brave enough, BC is 9-4 ATS in their past 13 road games, while FSU is 1-4 ATS in their past five ACC battles. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the past seven battles, and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings. However, I am not touching Boston College with a 20-foot-pole, twice as long as the pole I usually use to avoid teams.

Saturday - Maryland at Virginia (GamePlan/ESPN3, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Two-Star Game

It's hard to believe Maryland is 3-2 overall on the season, as this team is just not good. But they find a way to win. Overall, though, they're a hard team to figure. They are 2-3 ATS this season, barely scraping by William & Mary, before pasting Temple on the road. They were dropped by UConn at home, then stayed with West Virginia in Morgantown, losing just 31-21. Then, last week, they beat Wake Forest, but failed to cover in a low-scoring affair. They have gone under in two straight, including a very rare under for West Virginia, after a pair of overs earlier. Virginia, on the other hand, isn't hard to figure at all. They're just bad. They have dropped four straight games, including a 42-17 pasting at Duke last week. The Cavaliers are 0-5-1 ATS this season, including five straight non-covers. The over has also connected in three of their past four games. However, the Terps are just 1-4 ATS in their past trips to Charlottesville, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five battles. If you're considering Maryland, those numbers are confusing. It's best to stay away from this one, as it is tough to predict, other than it is almost a certainty bad football will be played. The under might be the play. The total has gone under in four of the past five meetings between these teams. For UVA, the under has connected in 14 of the past 20 games, and is 8-1 in Virginia's past nine home games. For Maryland, the under is 4-0 in their past four road games against teams with a losing record, and 13-6 in their past 19 October games.

[StarDust Bum]

Big Ten Report - Week 7

October 12, 2012

Wisconsin and Purdue match-up this week in the Big Ten's marquee game. Surprisingly this meeting between the Badgers and the Boilers could decide the Leaders division representative in the Big Ten title game. ASA has the full preview for that game, as well as every other match-up (includes Michigan State-Iowa & Minnesota-Northwestern). Get all the answers inside!

Purdue (-2.5) vs. Wisconsin - (Big Ten Network, 12:00 p.m. ET)
PU: Last week vs. Michigan: L 13-44
UW: Last week vs. Illinois: W 31-14

With Penn State and Ohio State ineligible for the postseason, and Illinois and Indiana not showing many signs of life, this game could decide the Leaders Division representative for the Big Ten championship. Motivation shouldn't be a factor here as both coaches know how big this game is. Wisconsin's win over Illinois looked to be a cakewalk by the look of the final score (31-14), but it definitely wasn't. It was 7-7 at halftime and Wisconsin put a couple of late touchdowns on the board to pull away. The defense put in another solid performance, holding the Illini to just 284 yards and 15 first downs. Offensively the Badgers still can't seem to find their rhythm as this unit ranks 107th in yards per game and 91st in points per game.

No Big Ten team disappointed more in week six than Danny Hope's Boilers. Purdue spotted Michigan a 25-point lead midway through the 2nd quarter and never really challenged the Wolverines. The Boilers managed just 213 yards on offense while turning the ball over four times. The defense has taken significant steps backward the past two weeks, allowing 41 points to Marshall and 44 points to Michigan in two home games. There's a bit of a quarterback controversy as Caleb TerBush has struggled recently. Robert Marve may be the better option, despite a torn ACL. Coach Hope stated that TerBush will remain the starter, but coaches will decide later in the week how to integrate Marve into the game.

Recent history: Wisconsin is 6-0 SU & ATS in the last six straight meetings, winning by an average of 23 points per game (average score of 35-12). Last year the Badgers piled on 605 yards and 62 points in a blowout at home. Montee Ball rushed for 223 yards and three scores.

Trends: The Badgers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog. Purdue is 1-5 ATS in its last six Big Ten games.

Injury report: Purdue RB Ralph Bolden finally could return this week. After rushing for 935 yards and tallying 11 total touchdowns in 2009, Bolden didn't play in 2010, played sparingly in 2011 before another knee injury, and hasn't played at all this year yet.

Michigan State (-10) vs. Iowa - (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
MSU: Last week at Indiana: W 31-27
UI: Last week: BYE

It's ridiculously early, but the Hawkeyes are tied for the Legends Division lead. A win here over the sporadic Spartans could further shake up the division race. Iowa had a week off to prepare for this road trip to East Lansing. The Hawks had a morale boosting win over rival Minnesota two weeks ago. Offensively the Hawks got another strong performance from walk-on RB Mark Weisman, who now has now rushed for 507 yards (7.0 YPC) and seven touchdowns the last three games. QB Vandenberg continues to struggle, however, as he's completing less than 59% of his passes with just two touchdowns and two interceptions (threw for 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions last season). This offense will face their stiffest test of the season against this Spartans defense that ranks 11th against the run and 25th against the pass.

Michigan State hasn't had a complete performance since a September 8th win over Central Michigan. Since then they scored three points in a loss to Notre Dame, struggled to beat a bad Eastern Michigan team, lost to Ohio State at home, and barely beat Indiana on the road last week. Sparty was down 14-27 at Indiana last week. The defense shut down the Hoosiers in the 2nd half and MSU survived a four-point victory. Offensively the Spartans rank 100th in points per game and things won't get any easier against this Hawkeye defense that seems to be improving every week.

Recent history: Iowa is 4-2 SU over the last six meetings and & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including a win & cover the last time here in East Lansing. MSU took a 31-7 lead into halftime of last year's meeting at Iowa. The Spartans cruised to a 37-21 win.

Trends: Iowa is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games and 1-11 ATS in its last 12 following a straight up win. Michigan State is 9-17-1 ATS its last 27 Big Ten home games.

Injury report: Michigan State tight end Dion Sims will miss Saturday's game against Iowa, leaving the Spartans without their leading receiver (24 receptions, 313 yards). Iowa will have top cornerback Micah Hyde on the field at Michigan State. Hyde was arrested during the weekend for public intoxication and interfering with official acts. Because he's a first-time offender, Iowa's student-athlete conduct policy doesn't require him to miss a game.

Minnesota (+3.5) vs. Northwestern - (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)
UM: Last week: BYE
NU: Last week at Penn State: L 28-39

Another virtual division elimination game as the winner will stay alive in the Legends race, while the loser is probably done. Both squads are off of their first loss of the season; Northwestern at Penn State last week and Minnesota at Iowa two weeks ago. Minnesota QB Max Shortell struggled under center against the Hawkeyes, throwing for just 197 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. As coach Jerry Kill said, the Gophers really need top quarterback MarQueis Gray to get healthy. Also unsettling was the play of Minnesota's defense, which couldn't stop Iowa's rushing attack Weisman. Northwestern brings one of the top rushing offenses in the nation here, averaging 232 yards per game (17th nationally).

Despite a sluggish offensive day overall (247 total yards), Northwestern put itself in position for a win at Penn State last week. The Wildcats led 28-17 midway through the 4th quarter before allowing 22 unanswered points to the Nittany Lions. The Wildcats couldn't get any pressure on PSU QB McGloin and he threw for 282 yards and two touchdowns while they notched 161 rush yards. That's not promising considering that the PSU offense ranks in the bottom half of all major defensive categories. Minnesota ranks similar offensively to Penn State, so this will be an interesting matchup if Northwestern can bounce back.

Recent history: Northwestern has won four of the last five overall, but Minnesota has covered seven of the last nine overall. The Wildcats jumped out to a 21-7 first quarter lead last season and not much happened after that. Northwestern won 28-13 but failed to cover as the 16-point favorite.

Trends: Minnesota is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall. The Wildcats are 5-13 ATS in the last 18 conference games.

Injury report: Minnesota quarterback MarQueis Gray participated in Sunday's light practice and will be on the field this week when the team begins its prep for Northwestern. Coach Jerry Kill is "cautiously optimistic" Gray has a chance to play against the Wildcats.

Michigan (-23.5) vs. Illinois - (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
UM: Last week at Purdue: W 44-13
UI: Last week at Wisconsin: L 14-31

Illinois is struggling in all facets. It ranks 102nd in yards per game and 104th in points per game. Their QB Scheelhaase has three touchdowns and five interceptions this season while their leading rusher has just 227 yards. Defensively the Illini are allowing more than 40 points per game against its past four FBS opponents. They have had particular trouble slowing down spread teams, which is evident in the 45 points allowed to Arizona State and the 52 allowed to Louisiana Tech. That could mean a big day for Denard Robinson and this Michigan offense that put up 44 points at Purdue a week ago.

Off it its bye week, Michigan got its best performance of the season against Purdue. The defense recorded four takeaways (returned one for a score) and allowed just 213 yards. QB Denard Robinson rebounded well after his disastrous game against Notre Dame. He tallied 235 rush yards and one passing touchdown and didn't throw any interceptions. Overall they ran for 304 yards and that allowed Michigan to hold the ball for +12.5 minutes time of possession. Michigan can't afford a letdown here by looking ahead to its home showdown against Michigan State next week.

Recent history: Michigan is 8-2 SU the last 10 meetings, but Illinois is 4-2 ATS in the previous six meetings. Last season Michigan held Illinois to just 214 total yards, including 37 rush yards on 33 carries. It was an ugly game that featured six total turnovers and Michigan won and covered, 31-14.

Trends: Illinois is 1-4 ATS in its last five conference games and 1-4 ATS in its last five road games. The Illinis are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a 20+ point underdog (5-0 ATS run). Michigan is 8-24 ATS in its last 32 conference games.

Injury report: Illinois cornerback Terry Hawthorne, who left the field last Saturday at Wisconsin in an ambulance, has recovered well but still must pass a concussion test before playing again. Redshirt freshman Eaton Spence will start in Hawthorne's place if he can't play.

Indiana (+17) vs. Ohio State - (Big Ten Network, 8:00 p.m. ET)
UI: Last week vs. Michigan State: L 27-31
OSU: Last week vs. Nebraska: W 63-38

Ohio State has to avoid a letdown here on the road at Indiana after its big win against Nebraska last week. The Buckeyes saw what almost happened to MSU in Bloomington a week ago so they won't be taking the Hoosiers lightly. OSU put on a scoring clinic last week against the Huskers. The Bucks tallied 371 rush yards (7.7 YPC average) and six touchdowns, Braxton Miller threw for one touchdown, and they scored on an interception return and a punt return. Defensively the Bucks allowed a lot of yards and 38 points, but they forced four turnovers and were able to get constant pressure on the quarterback. Expect more big numbers for the offense this week against Indiana's 95th ranked defensive unit.

Indiana is much improved from a year ago, though its progress has merely translated into agonizing losses against Ball State, Northwestern and Michigan State. Still, it's a promising development that the Hoosiers are actually competitive this season. It looked as though they would record their first signature win of the Kevin Wilson era last week. They dominated the first half against Michigan State and sliced through the Big Ten's top defense with their up-tempo attack. They led 27-14 at halftime but didn't record another point. QB Coffman threw for 282 yards and three touchdowns, but he will likely split time with QB Sudfeld this week - according to coach Wilson.

Recent history: Ohio State has won 17 straight games over Indiana and they are 11-4-2 ATS over that span (average win margin of 22.2 points per game). The Hoosiers hung with the Buckeyes in Columbus last year, trailing 20-27 heading into the 4th quarter. OSU tallied 346 rush yards with three players recording over 100 yards each.

Trends: Ohio State is 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 Big Ten road games. OSU is also 12-6 ATS its last 18 road games as a double-digit favorite.

Injury report: Indiana coach Kevin Wilson expects to play both of his top quarterbacks -- Cameron Coffman and Nate Sudfeld -- Saturday. Coffman made his third consecutive start last week against Michigan State and played brilliantly in the first half. Sudfeld has practiced a bit better than Coffman this week and both will see the field.

Nebraska - BYE
UN: Last week at Ohio State: L 38-63

After a strong first quarter against OSU, Nebraska's defense fell apart. The Huskers allowed six consecutive touchdown drives and 371 rush yards. They were killed by the big play as OSU scored six touchdowns of 16 yards or more. QB Taylor Martinez committed four turnovers, including an interception returned for a touchdown. Nebraska still has a shot at the division title, but it will need to fix a lot of problems this off week as it prepares for a key three game stretch against Northwestern, Michigan, and Michigan State.

Injury report: RB Rex Burkhead should be fine for the team's next game at Northwestern, coach Bo Pelini said. Burkhead injured his left knee in the third quarter against Ohio State and didn't return.

Penn State - BYE
PSU: Last week vs. Northwestern: W 39-28

Penn State has bounced back after an 0-2 start to win four straight games. The Lions rallied to beat Northwestern after an 11-point fourth quarter deficit. Quarterback Matt McGloin continues his strong play with two more touchdowns and no picks. He now has 12 touchdowns and just two interceptions this season. The defense has been very opportunistic and seems to get better and better every week. Last week they allowed just 247 yards to one of the better offenses in the Big Ten. They have a ton of momentum heading forward as they prepare for a road game at Iowa on October 20th.

[StarDust Bum]

Pac-12 Report - Week 7

October 12, 2012

Saturday - Stanford at Notre Dame (NBC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Five-Star Game

The Cardinal and the Irish hook up in South Bend in one of the more anticipated games of the weekend. The brutal schedule for Notre Dame continues, but at least they play at home. That's fine with Stanford, though, as they are 12-3-1 ATS in their past 16 road games, and 9-4 ATS in their past 13 games against teams with a road record. Digging deeper, however, we find Stanford is just 4-9 ATS in their past 13 games aginst Independents. Hmm. Meanwhile, Notre Dame is an impressive 4-1 ATS in their past five games, including a 41-3 blasting of Miami last weekend in Chicago. If you had heard the Notre Dame defense was pretty good, they were right. But we learned that the Irish have a little something going on offensively, too. In this series, there are no skewed trends in favor of one team or another, but the under has cashed in five of the past six meetings. The under is also 17-5 in Notre Dame's past 22 home games, and 5-2 in Stanford's past seven road games.

Saturday - Southern California at Washington (FOX, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Four-Star Game

The Trojans haven't exactly been cover kings this season, hitting the number just once in five games this season. However, they are 5-2 ATS in their past seven against Pac-12 opponents, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven games against teams with a winning record. The Huskies pulled off a signature win at home against Stanford a few weeks ago, but they were unable to carry that momentum to Eugene, losing 52-21 last week. Still, Washington is 2-1 ATS in their past three games, and those two covers came at home. Remember this, the Trojans are 2-5 ATS in their past seven meetings with U-Dub, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven trips to Seattle. The underdog, presumably, without looking, Washington every time, is 5-2 ATS in the past seven battles between these sides.

Saturday - Oregon State at Brigham Young (ABC/ESPN3, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Three-Star Game

This game had the look of a marquee game until last week. The Beavers ended up losing QB Sean Mannion (knee) for at least two to four weeks due to torn cartilage in his knee, meaning QB Cody Vaz will make his first collegiate start. Going up against the vaunted BYU defense, which has allowed 10 total points over their past three games, it is a tall order for Vaz. It's also reason why there is a rare college total under 40 (currently at 37). The Cougs have problems of their own under center, as they lost versatile QB Taysom Hill (knee) to a knee injury last Friday. He is done for the season, and will be replaced, most likely, by former starter QB Riley Nelson. This game has the look of a slog, but under 37 is still a risky proposition. The Beavers are 4-1-1 ATS in their past six games, and the public apparently likes that. However, you have to remember Mannion is out, and this will look like a completely different offense against a stout D. The Cougs are 6-2 ATS in their past eight home games.

Saturday - Utah at UCLA (FOX, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Two-Star Game

The Bruins are a difficult team to figure. They come into this game with a still impressive 4-2 record, but they were punished in Berkeley last week, 43-17. Really, they never win at Cal, but the Bears are not good this year, and the Bruins have looked better. Guess not. Suddenly, UCLA is just 1-2 ATS in their past three games, and they need to get untracked. Utah would seem like the perfect team to pick it up against, but they were spanked by the Utes 31-6 in the last meeting. Utah is 0-2 this season away from Rice-Eccles Stadium, however, so it will be an uphill climb. Utah is just 1-4 ATS in their past five road games against a team with a winning home record, and the Bruins are 5-1 ATS in their past six home games. If you don't have a sour taste in your mouth from past UCLA failures, and can look at this objectively, UCLA looks like the clear-cut play. However, keep in mind UCLA is just 7-16 ATS in their past 23 Pac-12 games, and 3-13 ATS in their past 16 games in the month of October.

Saturday - California at Washington State (Pac-12 Network, 10:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup One-Star Game

California was a struggling 1-4 club, but they got well last week and whaled on UCLA 43-17. All of a sudden, things are looking up for head coach Jeff Tedford's bunch. This team can run the football with authority, and they could keep things going in the right direction with a win on the Palouse. The Bears are just 3-9 ATS in their past 12 road games, however, although they are an impressive 5-2 ATS in their past seven Pac-12 games. WaZu is 11-3 ATS in their past 14 games in the month of October. They are also 8-3 ATS in their past 11 meetings with Cal. However, the road team is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings, so be careful with the line. The over has cashed in five straight home games for Washington State, but the under is 11-4 in Cal's past 15 games. This game is a good idea to stay far away from.

[StarDust Bum]

South Carolina at LSU

October 12, 2012


South Carolina announced itself as a legitimate national-title contender last weekend. As for LSU, it lost for the first time and is now in desperation mode as the Gamecocks come to Baton Rouge to face the Tigers on Saturday night.

As of Friday afternoon, most books had LSU (5-1 straight up, 2-4 against the spread) installed as a 2 ½-point favorite with a total of 39 ½ for ‘over/under’ wagers. Gamblers can take the Gamecocks to win outright for a plus-125 return (risk $100 to win $125).

South Carolina took Georgia behind the woodshed last Saturday night in Columbia, cruising to a 35-7 win as a one-point home favorite. The 42 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 54 ½-point total.

Steve Spurrier’s squad raced out to a 21-0 lead midway through the first quarter thanks to a pair of Connor Shaw touchdown passes and a 70-yard punt return for a score by Ace Sanders.

Shaw completed 6-of-10 throws for 162 yards and two TDs without an interception. The junior signal caller also scored on a seven-yard run. Marcus Lattimore posted the third 100-yard game of his career against Georgia, rushing 24 times for 109 yards and one TD.

For the season, Shaw is connecting on 75.7 percent of his passes for 733 yards with a 7/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Shaw is first in the SEC in passing efficiency (184.7). He has also rushed for 281 yards, averaging 4.4 yards per carry.

Lattimore has rushed for 549 yards and nine TDs, averaging 4.7 YPC.

South Carolina leads the SEC in sacks with 25. Sophomore defensive end Jadeveon Clowney is second in the SEC in sacks (6 ½) and tackles for losses (11 ½). With Clowney, senior DE Devin Taylor, sophomore DT Kelcy Quarles and junior DE Chaz Sutton, the Gamecocks have one of the nation’s premier defensive lines.

That’s not good news for LSU, which has issues on its offensive line. Starting OT Chris Faulk went down with a season-ending injury a few weeks ago, and now two other starters could be out. Junior OG Josh Williford sustained a concussion last week and is ‘doubtful,’ while OT Alex Hurst left the team earlier this week for personal reasons and is considered ‘questionable.’

Also on the injury front, LSU will most likely be without LB Kwon Alexander, who is ‘doubtful’ with a sprained ankle.

Les Miles’s team had won 18 consecutive regular-season games until Florida won a 14-6 decision over the Tigers as a three-point home underdog. LSU led 6-0 at intermission and it was clear that points were going to be at a premium in the second half.

Florida finally got going offensively behind the between-the-tackles running of senior RB Mike Gillislee, who scored a pair of touchdowns for the Gators. LSU’s offense couldn’t get anything going whatsoever and when it did make a big play, Odell Beckham fumbled inside the red zone when he was stripped by UF safety Matt Elam.

Despite the defeat, everything remains on the table for LSU. In other words, as long as the Tigers take care of their business, they can still win the SEC and probably get into the BCS Championship Game. With that said, another loss most likely eliminates all of the aforementioned goals.

In his first season as a starter, LSU junior QB Zach Mettenberger is completing 61.8 percent of his passes for 1,174 yards with a 6/3 TD-INT ratio.

LSU is led in rushing by sophomore RB Kenny Hilliard, who has 382 yards and six TDs on 58 carries for a 6.6 YPC average. The Tigers are deep in the backfield with Spencer Ware (4.6 YPC) and Michael Ford (5.7 YPC).

During Les Miles’s eight-year tenure, LSU has limped to an 18-28-1 spread record as a home favorite. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks are 12-8-1 against the spread as road underdogs on Steve Spurrier’s watch.

South Carolina hasn’t played in Baton Rouge since 2007 when LSU won a 28-16 decision as a 17 ½-point underdog. In the last head-to-head meeting in 2008, LSU overcame a halftime deficit to capture a 24-17 victory as a 1 ½-point road ‘chalk.’

The ‘under’ is 3-2 overall for LSU, but the ‘over’ is 2-1 in its three home games that had a total. Totals have been a wash for South Carolina both overall (3-3) and in its road assignments (1-1)

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Toledo junior QB Terrance Owens is enjoying a sensational year to date. The southpaw has thrown for 1,503 yards with a 9/1 TD-INT ratio. Owens has also rushed for 164 yards and three touchdowns. He’s been the catalyst behind the Rockets’ 5-1 start. They are 15-point favorites Saturday at Eastern Michigan.

--La. Tech QB Colby Cameron has 13 TD passes without being intercepted. The Bulldogs take on Texas A&M in Shreveport on Saturday night.

--Dating back to 1998, Boise St. owns a 10-1-1 spread record in 12 games as a single-digit home favorite. The Broncos host Fresno St. on Saturday as seven-point favorites.

--Nevada QB Cody Fajardo has been downgraded to ‘doubtful’ Saturday at UNLV. Fajardo suffered a lower back injury in last week’s 35-28 home win over Wyoming. He has passed for 1,465 yards and rushed for 521. Fajardo has a 9/3 TD-INT ratio and seven rushing scores.

[Spark]

Good Luck Bum

[StarDust Bum]

Good Luck to you also Spark......