The Bum's October's College Football Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

My Best Bets Till 4pm Eastern: Good Luck !

Saturday, October 13

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Louisville - 11:00 AM ET Pittsburgh +3 500
Pittsburgh -

Kansas State - 12:00 PM ET Kansas State -6 500
Iowa State -

Iowa - 12:00 PM ET Iowa +7.5 500
Michigan State - Under 39 500

Northwestern - 12:00 PM ET Northwestern -3.5 500
Minnesota -

Syracuse - 12:00 PM ET Rutgers -7 500
Rutgers -

Texas - 12:00 PM ET Texas +3.5 500
Oklahoma - Under 58.5 500

Alabama-Birmingham - 12:00 PM ET Houston -13.5 500
Houston -

Kent State - 12:00 PM ET Kent State -2 500
Army -

Wisconsin - 12:00 PM ET Wisconsin +1 500
Purdue -

Auburn - 12:21 PM ET Mississippi -6 500
Mississippi - Under 49 500

Duke - 12:30 PM ET Duke +10 500
Virginia Tech -

Temple - 1:00 PM ET Temple +5.5 500
Connecticut -

Toledo - 1:00 PM ET Toledo -14.5 500
Eastern Michigan -

Southern Methodist - 1:00 PM ET Southern Methodist -18.5 500
Tulane -

Akron - 2:00 PM ET Ohio -20.5 500
Ohio -

North Carolina - 2:30 PM ET North Carolina -7.5 500
Miami -

Utah - 3:00 PM ET UCLA -9.5 500
UCLA -

Maryland - 3:00 PM ET Maryland +2 500
Virginia -

Western Michigan - 3:00 PM ET Western Michigan +3 500
Ball State -

Nevada - 3:00 PM ET UNLV +11 500
UNLV -

Fresno State - 3:30 PM ET Fresno State +7 500
Boise State -

Stanford - 3:30 PM ET Notre Dame -7 500
Notre Dame -

Alabama - 3:30 PM ET Missouri +22 500
Missouri -

Texas-San Antonio - 3:30 PM ET Texas-San Antonio +2.5 500
Rice -

Oregon State - 3:30 PM ET Brigham Young -5.5 500
Brigham Young -

Oklahoma State - 3:30 PM ET Kansas +27.5 500
Kansas -

West Virginia - 3:30 PM ET Texas Tech +3.5 500
Texas Tech -

Illinois - 3:30 PM ET Michigan -25 500
Michigan -

Miami (Ohio) - 3:30 PM ET Bowling Green -7.5 500
Bowling Green -

Buffalo - 3:30 PM ET Northern Illinois -14 500
Northern Illinois -

Utah State - 4:00 PM ET San Jose State -3 500
San Jose State -

Memphis - 4:30 PM ET Memphis +17 500
East Carolina -

Boston College - 5:30 PM ET Boston College +28 500
Florida State -

Florida - 6:00 PM ET Florida -9 500
Vanderbilt -

Middle Tennessee - 6:00 PM ET Middle Tennessee -2.5 500
Florida International -

Colorado State - 6:30 PM ET San Diego State -22.5 500
San Diego State -

[StarDust Bum]

College football betting weather watch: Week 7

It's October. Which means keeping a close eye on the weather will be key moving forward with your college football handicapping. Here's a look at games that could be impacted in Week 7.

Kansas State at Iowa State (6, 47.5)

Site: Jack Trice Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-60s with a 100 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will blow out of the south at 13 mph.

Toledo at Eastern Michigan (14.5, 57.5)

Site: Rynearson Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-50s with a 95 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the south at 13 mph.

Illinois at Michigan (-25, 47.5)

Site: Michigan Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in low-50s with a 95 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out of the south at 13 mph.

Stanford at Notre Dame (-7, 43)

Site: Notre Dame Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s with an 80 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will blow out of the south at 14 mph.

Oklahoma State at Kansas (27.5, 70)

Site: Memorial Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-70s with an 80 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds are expected to blow out of the south at 15 mph.

Kentucky at Arkansas (-17, 52.5)

Site: Reynolds Razorback Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-70s with a 50 percent chance of rain. Southerly winds expected at 14 mph.

TCU at Baylor (-7, 68.5)

Site: Floyd Casey Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-80s with a slight 20 percent chance of a thunderstorm in the evening. The real weather story will be the 16 mph winds expected to blow out of the south.

USC at Washington (13.5, 55)

Site: CenturyLink Field

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s with an 80 percent chance of showers. Winds will be light out of the south.

Texas A&M at Louisiana Tech (9, 80)

Site: Independence Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-70s with a 65 percent chance of thunderstorms. Wind shouldn’t be a factor.

[StarDust Bum]

Evening Best Bets:


Colorado State - 6:30 PM ET San Diego State -22.5 500
San Diego State -

Kentucky - 7:00 PM ET Kentucky +17 500
Arkansas -

Texas Christian - 7:00 PM ET Texas Christian +6.5 500
Baylor -

Southern California - 7:00 PM ET Washington +13.5 500
Washington -

Idaho - 7:00 PM ET Texas State -2.5 500
Texas State -

South Alabama - 7:00 PM ET Arkansas State -19.5 500
Arkansas State -

Air Force - 7:00 PM ET Wyoming +4 500
Wyoming -

Ohio State - 8:00 PM ET Indiana +18 500
Indiana -

South Carolina - 8:00 PM ET South Carolina +3 500
Louisiana State -

Southern Mississippi - 8:00 PM ET Southern Mississippi +16 500
Central Florida -

Florida Atlantic - 8:00 PM ET UL Monroe -22.5 500
UL Monroe -

Tennessee - 9:00 PM ET Mississippi State -3 500
Mississippi State -

Texas A&M - 9:00 PM ET Louisiana Tech +9 500
Louisiana Tech -

California - 10:30 PM ET Washington State +7 500
Washington State -

New Mexico - 11:59 PM ET Hawaii +2 500
Hawaii -

[StarDust Bum]

Ragin' Cajuns Take Tuesday Trip To North Texas

LA-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns at North Texas Mean Green College Football Betting Preview
Date: 10/16/2012, 9:00 p.m. (ET) ESPN2
Opening Lines: Lafayette -4½, O/U NA

Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns: Head coach Mark Hudspeth brings the Ragin' Cajuns (4-1 straight up, 3-2 against the spread) into Tuesday's match a perfect 2-0 in Sun Belt action, including a 48-20 victory over preseason conference favorite Florida International in late-September. Louisiana-Lafayette followed that up with a 41-13 win vs. Tulane 10 days ago, failing to cover the 30½-point spread. A big part of the Cajuns' success so far has come in the turnover department where they are +8 on the season, good enough for 10th-best in the country. Lafayette is also 24th in the nation averaging 38 points per game, and have one of the top kickers in senior Brett Baer who has made good on 12-of-15 field goals (5-of-7 from 40+ yards). The Ragin' Cajuns have won the last five meetings with North Texas, and covered three of the last four. Louisiana-Lafayette is 16-7 ATS since mid-2010.

North Texas Mean Green: Head coach Dan McCarney and the Mean Green (2-4 SU & ATS) have split their first two Sun Belt games in the final season before moving to Conference USA in 2013. North Texas' only two pointspread covers came in losses to at LSU (41-14, Week 1) and Kansas State (35-21, Week 3), and the Mean Green has since dropped three straight at the college football betting window. They were able to amass nearly 500 yards of offense in Week 6 against Houston, but the defense couldn't stop the Cougars who tallied 300+ both on the ground and in the air. Expect LA-Lafayette to try and establish its ground game early against a North Texas defense that is 81st in the country against the run. The Mean Green have seen three of their five games with totals go 'over' the number, and six of the last eight in this series have also cashed for high-side bettors.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Week 8

Tuesday, October 16

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LA LAFAYETTE (4 - 1) at NORTH TEXAS (2 - 4) - 10/16/2012, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAFAYETTE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAFAYETTE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAFAYETTE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAFAYETTE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAFAYETTE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAFAYETTE is 2-0 against the spread versus NORTH TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAFAYETTE is 2-0 straight up against NORTH TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 8

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

(TC) Louisiana Lafayette at North Texas, 9:00 ET ESPN2
LA Lafayette: 8-1 ATS away vs. conference opponents
North Texas: 7-19 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less

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NCAAF

Week 8

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Trend Report
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Tuesday, October 16

9:00 PM
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE vs. NORTH TEXAS
Louisiana-Lafayette is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing North Texas
Louisiana-Lafayette is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing North Texas
North Texas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
North Texas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

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NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 8

UL-Lafayette at North Texas
The Ragin' Cajuns look to take advantage of a North Texas team that is coming off a 44-21 loss to Houston and is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following a defeat of more than 20 points. UL-Lafayette is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Ragin' Cajuns favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (-3 1/2). Here are all of the weekday lined games.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 16

Game 301-302: UL-Lafayette at North Texas (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 80.312; North Texas 74.474
Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 6; 53
Vegas Line: UL-Lafayette by 3 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (-3 1/2); Under

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Tuesday's game
North Texas lost its last five games with UL-Lafayette by average score of 39-26; Ragin' Cajuns won 28-27/59-30 in last two visits here. ULL is 4-1, with only loss at Oklahoma State; theyv'e already won games in Sun Belt by 13-28 points, with a road win at Troy. 13 points is closest game they've played this year. North Texas is 1-4 vs I-A opponents but four of those five games were on road; they lost 14-7 to Troy in only home game vs I-A opponent. Mean Green is 4-11 vs spread in last 15 games as a home underdog. Since 2007, ULL is 4-1 vs spread as a road favorite.

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NCAAF

Tuesday, October 16

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UL Lafayette at North Texas: 8 things bettors should know
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UL Lafayette at North Texas (3.5, OFF)

TV: 8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-70s with sunny skies. Winds will blow out of the south at 16 mph.

1. Ragin’ Cajuns RB Alonzo Harris ran for 123 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries to help Louisiana-Lafayette pile up 294 rushing yards in a 41-13 victory over Tulane on Oct. 6. The Cajuns rushed for 87 yards in the first quarter and finished the contest averaging 5.5 a carry.

2. UNT is coming off a 44-21 defeat at the hands of Houston on Oct. 6 to drop to 2-4 on the campaign. The Mean Green had previously lost games to nationally ranked teams Kansas State and LSU.

3. UNT’s secondary was almost completely wiped out by graduation after the 2011 season. Seven of the eight players in the unit were seniors. The Mean Green ranks second in the Sun Belt in both pass efficiency defense and interceptions despite its lack of experience in the back this season.

4. UL-Lafayette kicker Brett Baer scored 11 points against Tulane to move into sixth place on the career scoring chart with 201 points. Baer continues to lead the nation in field goals (2.4/game) while ranking seventh in scoring (11/6 ppg).

5. The Cajuns have come back to even the all-time series with North Texas at eight games by winning six of the last seven meetings, including five straight.

6. After allowing Tulane to gain just 53 yards rushing on 22 carries, the Ragin' Cajuns have moved up to 18th nationally in rush defense. In five games, UL has held its opponents to 107.2 yards rushing per game, including less than 70 yards in all four of its wins.

7. Brandin Byrd, Antoinne Jimmerson and Jeremy Brown drive a three-pronged UNT rushing attack that ranks sixth in the Sun Belt with an average of 175.2
rushing yards per game.

8. The Mean Green ranks ninth out of 10 teams in the league in completion percentage at 55.3 percent and has been dreadful in the red zone. UNT has converted on only 14 of its 20 trips into the scoring zone and has only managed 11 touchdowns in those situations.

TRENDS:

* Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Mean Green is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a bye week.
* Ragin' Cajuns are 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday, October 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount

UL Lafayette - 9:00 PM ET UL Lafayette -4 500

North Texas - Over 56.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Football Lines To Watch - Monday Market Report October 15

Sports books have posted their initial numbers for the upcoming week on the college and NFL betting schedules, and Don Best's Brian Blessing and Todd Fuhrman are taking a look at some of the contests that have seen some early movement on the Don Best Pro Odds screen.

The Big Ten clash in Evanston between Nebraska and Northwester is the first stop on this week's Monday Market Report. Oddsmakers sent this one out with the Cornhuskers laying 6½, but early action saw that spread drop to 4½.

Nebraska (4-2 overall, 1-1 Big Ten) is coming off a bye week while Northwestern (6-1, 2-1) rebounded from its only loss to take down Minnesota on the road last week.

"Northwestern has to be brimming with confidence, not only with the way this season has gone, but last year they went into Lincoln and (beat Nebraska) 28-25 as a 17-point 'dog," Fuhrman notes. "Assuming the bettors are on to something, Nebraska may need more than two weeks to figure out their issues with the defense."

Moving on to Lubbock and the Big 12 battle between the Texas Tech Red Raiders and TCU Horned Frogs, this game has swung all the way from the visitors being 2½-point favorites to the hosts laying two. Blessing believes both teams could be in line for a letdown this week after TCU (5-1 overall, 2-1 Big 12) topped Baylor 49-21 in Waco this past Saturday while Texas Tech (5-1, 2-1) is coming off a huge 49-14 upset of then-No. 5 West Virginia.

Speaking of the Mountaineers, West Virginia (5-1, 2-1) is home this Saturday for a huge Big 12 contest with the unbeaten Kansas State Wildcats (6-0, 3-0). Coming off the loss at Texas Tech, West Virginia opened -4 with that number dropping to -3 by midday Monday.

Despite laying the egg in Lubbock, Fuhrman isn't ready to write off the Mountaineers, and believes the drop on the line offers WVU backers some value in this spot. The total wasn't out on this game at the time of taping, but Don Best's Kenny White thinks the number will be in the low-70s.

Skipping from the collegiate gridiron over to the NFL, the Minnesota Vikings (4-2, straight up, 3-2-1 against the spread) started off as 4-point chalk for the Sunday visit from the Arizona Cardinals, but that spread was quickly bet up to 5½. Cardinals QB Kevin Kolb injured his ribs in the overtime loss to Buffalo on Sunday, and is questionable to face the Vikings.

Fuhrman doesn't think the line movement has as much to do with Kolb's status as it is a fade on the Cardinals who he believes will have trouble scoring more than 10 points against this Minnesota defense.

[StarDust Bum]

Oregon Ducks In Thursday Pac-12 Test At Arizona State

As is the case most college football seasons, potential unbeaten sides begin to peel away as the campaign progresses. Eventually, if we’re lucky, we’re left with more than one (and preferably just two) unbeaten sides to face off in the BCS title game.

We’ll get a better idea on Thursday night if the Oregon Ducks (6-0 straight up, 2-4 vs. the line; No. 2 in the latest Don Best Linemakers Poll) are really capable of running such a gauntlet as they did two years ago, when advancing to the title game against Auburn and Cam Newton. Interestingly, the Webfoots travel to the Valley of the Sun for the first time since that 2010 BCS title game, although they’ll be a bit east from U of P Stadium in Glendale and instead in Tempe at Sun Devil Stadium for a Pac-12 showdown against rejuvenated Arizona State (5-1 straight up, 5-0-1 vs. line; No. 22 in latest Don Best Linemakers Poll).

An early-week check of the Don Best college football odds screen notes that the visiting Ducks have been priced as 9½-point favorites at practically every Las Vegas wagering outlet for this Thursday night clash. Kickoff time in Tempe will be at 9:00 p.m. (ET), with ESPN providing the national TV coverage. The normal Thursday night crew of Rece Davis, Jesse Palmer and David Pollack will be on hand to provide the descriptions.

Although Oregon has been flying high for several years, it has not had a particularly an easy time of it lately against the Sun Devils, who have covered the last two meetings against the Ducks. And those were with mistake-prone and penalty-susceptible Dennis Erickson-coached teams.

This year’s ASU bears little resemblance to the sloppy Erickson editions of the past few seasons. Credit for the turnaround goes to new head coach Todd Graham, a peripatetic sort now on his fourth different head coaching assignment since 2006 (and third in as many years). But much as he has in his past career stops, the ex-Rice, Tulsa and Pittsburgh mentor has been pushing the right buttons in Tempe, with the Sun Devils executing crisply and smartly, and not beating themselves as they consistently did the past few years on Erickson’s watch.

Indeed, ASU has won five of its six games to date and stands 5-0-1 against the spread, all a testament to the presence of Graham, whose Tulsa, Pitt and ASU teams are now 20-10-1 overall vs. the number, and 9-2 as an underdog, since 2010.

A key contributor in the desert renaissance has been soph QB Taylor Kelly, a newcomer to the starting lineup who hit the ground running in the August 30 opener vs. Northern Arizona and has continued to wow observers with his poise, accuracy and versatility. The mobile Kelly has completed 68 percent of his passes, with 14 TDs and just two picks, during the first half of the season as the Sun Devils appear a shoo-in to return to bowl action for the first time since 2007.

And not since the days of Frank Kush in the old WAC has ASU looked as sharp as it has in the first six weeks of the 2012 season. Arizona State is scoring 41 ppg and allowing just 14 ppg (ranking ninth in the country), with a balanced strike force (188 ypg rushing and 291 ypg passing) and a big -play defense led by QB-gobbling DT Will Sutton, an unblockable sort with 8½ sacks already and pacing a defensive charge that has recorded a whopping 26 QB captures, ranking only behind (ironically) Graham’s former Tulsa side in national sack stats.

The challenge for Oregon is formidable. But the Ducks will not enter Tempe with a lack of confidence.

Remember, Oregon has yet to lose or even be remotely pushed this season. The fact is has dropped four of six spread decisions is more a reflection of head coach Chip Kelly taking his foot off of the accelerator and subbing freely once the Ducks have put the results on ice. Consider that Oregon had scored 50 points in its opener vs. Arkansas State before the second quarter was half complete, and led Fresno State by a 35-6 in the first half the following week...although it eventually failed to cover hefty pointspreads in both games.

Yet when the Ducks stayed focused for an entire 60 minutes, they destroyed a capable Arizona side, 49-0, confirming reports from Pac-12 insiders that the Oregon defense might be the best in Eugene since the “Gang Green” platoon during the Rose Bowl year of 1994 in defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti’s first tour of duty at Autzen Stadium. Which also suggests some of the garbage-time TDs conceded in the other games have been relatively meaningless.

This trip to Tempe, however, will be the first true “visitor” test for Oregon, whose only previous game away from Eugene was at the NFL Seahawks’ CenturyLink Field in Seattle in a neutral field battle against Washington State. That also holds true for RS frosh QB Marcus Mariota, who has otherwise passed almost every test in the early going.

If there might be a chink in Mariota’s armor, it has been a tendency at times to be a bit careless, reflected in his five interceptions. Besides those handful of mistakes, he’s been mostly flawless, with 15 TD passes, 1,301 yards through the air and another 221 rushing yards. And those six-game numbers have been amassed with him on the field for just over half of the game time in the Ducks’ early-season outings.

Mariota is far from the only weapon in Chip Kelly’s devastating no-huddle spread, which runs off plays in rapid-fire fashion as it sets a breathless pace. Both RBs Kenjon Barner (727 yards rushing and 10 TDs) and De’Anthony Thomas (better than 9 ypc and with 9 TDs) are human highlight reels. Oregon’s spread is rushing for 302 ypg (fourth nationally) and is scoring a video-football-like 52 ppg (second nationally) despite pulling its starters halfway through the majority of its games.

Still, this is the Ducks’ biggest test to date in 2012. We’ll have a better idea if Oregon is serious about qualifying for its second BCS title game in three seasons after Thursday night.

[StarDust Bum]

Syracuse Orange Host UConn Under Friday Night Lights

Connecticut Huskies at Syracuse Orange
College Football Betting Preview
Date: 10/19/2012, 8:00 p.m. (ET) ESPN
Opening Lines: Syracuse -4, O/U 43½

Connecticut Huskies: It has been a trying season for Paul Pasqualoni troops, and equally frustrating for UConn (3-4 straight up, 1-4-2 against the spread) backers. Twice (vs. NC State, at Western Michigan) the Huskies have seen rallies fall short, and last week they moved to 0-2 in Big East play when an early 14-zip lead in Storrs vs. Temple didn't stand up. Connecticut has dropped the cash in each of the last four games, but there is good news for anyone playing the 'under' in Husky games (5-2). More good news comes in the form of top RB Lyle McCombs being listed as probable for Friday's kickoff after missing the Temple game with a wrist injury. McCombs rushed for 484 in UConn's first six games and scored four touchdowns. He also led the team in rushing last season with over 1,100 yards. The Huskies have won and covered each of the last five games in this series to take a 6-2 all-time lead over the Orange. The 'over' has been the winner in three of the last four between the teams.

Syracuse Orange: Doug Marrone and his staff will be looking for their first victory over UConn since taking the helm in '09. Syracuse (2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS) still hasn't completely recovered from the 5-game nosedive to end the 2011 season, and the Orange enter this matchup failing to beat the number in each of their last four tilts (1-10 ATS last 11). Turnovers have killed the Orange who have left it on the ground seven times and eight more through the air. Ryan Nassib has thrown all eight picks, including two last week in the 23-15 loss at Rutgers who was 6½-point chalk. Nassib has the eighth-most passing yards (1,908) in the country and will cross the 2,000 yard plateau for the third consecutive season this week, but his 137.0 passer rating is hurt by thosee INTs. Syracuse's last three games have failed to reach the scoreboard, and the 'under' is 5-2 for UConn on the season.

[StarDust Bum]

Morris Doubtful As Miami Hurricanes Host Florida State

The annual in-state battle between the Florida State Seminoles and Miami Hurricanes has been extremely close over the years, but this one could be heavily affected by an injury to Miami quarterback Stephen Morris.

The Don Best Pro Odds have Miami as 18½-19 point home ‘dogs after opening at +17½. The total is 56 and ABC will have the coverage at 8:00 p.m. (ET) from Sun Life Stadium in Miami.

The junior Morris is listed as doubtful after spraining his ankle in last week’s 18-14 home loss to North Carolina. He has thrown for 1,991 yards overall, second most in the ACC. Sophomore Ryan Williams is expected to start in his place after transferring from Memphis after one season.

Miami (4-3 straight up and against the spread) is also dealing with a 2-game losing streak in addition to the quarterback injury. The North Carolina game was preceded by a bad 41-3 loss to Notre Dame, a game played in not-so-neutral Chicago.

Coach Al Golden is happy that the Hurricanes still lead the Coastal Division at 3-1, but they’ve looked bad against ranked opponents with a blowout at Kansas State (52-13) in addition to Notre Dame. This one will at least be at home.

The Seminoles (6-1 SU, 2-4 ATS) were a top-5 team nationally in both the AP and Coaches Poll before a terrible 17-16 upset at North Carolina State as 17-point favorites two weeks ago. They blew a 16-0 halftime lead along with likely their national title hopes.

Coach Jimbo Fisher’s guys did rebound with a 51-7 home win over Boston College last Saturday, but is still ranked just 12th and 10th respectively in the AP and Coaches. The Don Best Linemakers Poll doesn’t have wild swings due to a single bad game and still has Florida State at No. 4.

Quarterback E.J. Manuel may not be part of the Heisman talk anymore, but his 175.8 rating ranks fifth in the country. He’s had a couple of huge passing games against Clemson (380 yards) and Boston College (439 yards), and the aerial attack overall ranks a respectable 23rd in the country (297.4 YPG).

The offense is balanced with a running game that ranks 16th (233.1 YPG). Senior back Chris Thompson has been a home run threat at 7.6 yards per carry after missing most of last season with a back injury.

Florida State should be able to pick its poison offensively, either running or throwing. Miami’s defense is 117th in total yards (506.6 YPG), with the porous run ‘D’ the biggest factor (253.7 YPG, ranked 118th).

Fisher’s defense on the other hand is elite at 222 YPG (ranked third) and 11.6 PPG (fourth). He’ll look to stop the running game first and make Williams prove he can throw it in his first career start with the 'Canes.

Note the ‘under’ is 2-0 in Florida State’s road games this year and 6-0 in the last six away from home (including last year’s Bowl).

This matchup has been close historically with 10 of the last 11 decided by eight points or less. The one exception was the last time they met in Miami in 2010, a 45-17 Florida State blowout as 5 -point ‘dogs.

The road team has also dominated lately at 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in the last six. The underdog is 12-1 ATS in the last 13.






.

[StarDust Bum]

Wolverines & Spartans In Ann Arbor For Big Ten Clash

This isn’t how things were expected to go in 2012 at Michigan State (4-3 straight up, 1-6 vs. the spread). After all, wasn’t this the program that proclaimed in the offseason that even the Rose Bowl was setting the bar too low, and that it was national title or bust in East Lansing?

Well, bust it looks to be for the Spartans, who stopped dreaming about the BCS title game several weeks ago, and whose postseason aspirations now look more like the Meineke Car Car Texas or Little Caesar’s Bowls instead.

Whatever chance MSU has of salvaging something special from the current season could disappear altogether if it can’t beat hated rival Michigan (4-2 straight up, 3-3 vs. the number; No. 14 in latest Don Best Linemakers Poll) on Saturday at the Big House in Ann Arbor. A quick check of the Don Best college football odds screen notes that the host Wolverines are priced as 10-point favorites almost across the board at Las Vegas sports books, with the total sitting at 43.

Kickoff time will be at 3:30 p.m. (ET) with the Big Ten Network providing the TV coverage.

The Spartans’ problems have been easy to identify this season. To paraphrase noted LSU supporter James Carville, "It’s the offense, stupid."

Indeed. Michigan State has been sluggish on the attack end since the opening game against Boise State, and if not for a late rally two weeks ago vs. a subpar Indiana side would be sitting on three losses in a row. The Spartans rank 80th nationally in total offense (380 yards per game) and even lower in scoring at an embarrassing 102nd (mere 21 ppg).

The problem? A lack of big-play ability from the passing game has made it far too easy for foes to load up in the defensive box and gird for the thrusts of RB Le’Veon Bell. MSU has been unable to stretch enemy defenses with junior QB Andrew Maxwell, proving thus far to be quite a downgrade from predecessor Kirk Cousins, now with the NFL’s Washington Redskins.

As the season passes its midway point, Maxwell is completing only 54 percent of his passes with a mere six TDs. He also doesn’t have a gain longer than 48 yards, as most of MSU’s throws are of the short-to-intermediate variety. The lack of dynamic downfield receiving threats has been difficult for Maxwell and the 'O' to overcome.

Thus, the Spartans are relying more than they expected upon the workhorse Bell, who has posted impressive numbers (916 yards rushing and 8 TDs) despite being the focal point of opposing defenses. But State is not going to win many shootouts if it can’t balance the offense a bit better and add some zip to the passing game.

Meanwhile, it appears as if we have no such concerns about the Wolverines attack, which despite being stonewalled by a couple of the nation’s top defenses (Alabama and Notre Dame) in September has nonetheless hit stride the past couple of weeks behind electric junior QB Denard Robinson, who finally looks to be getting in gear after a slow start in 2012.

Michigan has scored 89 points its last two games, blowout wins over Purdue and Illinois. And Robinson has looked like his old self, rushing for a whopping 235 yards in the 44-13 win over the Boilermakers, and accounting for four TDs (two via rush and two via pass) while running for another 128 yards in last week’s 45-0 romp past Illinois.

What has really pleased Michigan head coach Brady Hoke, however, has been improved defense in recent outings. After being manhandled by Alabama’s OL in the opener, and having trouble with Air Force’s option the next week, Michigan has allowed only 9.8 ppg over its last four outings.

The Wolverines are also hellbent for revenge this Saturday after losing and failing to cover four straight games against the Spartans, who have only covered the number in one of their first seven games this season.

Another angle to note has been the ‘under’ pattern displayed this season by the Spartans. The MSU offense, which stagnated again last week in the 19-16 overtime loss to Iowa, is the prime contributor to the trend, which has seen MSU ‘under’ six of its first seven games this season. The last three meetings of this instate rivalry have been ‘under’ as well, including the Spartans’ 28-14 win over Michigan at East Lansing last season.

It’s also worth noting that the Spartan defense put a rather effective collar on Robinson a year ago, holding him to 42 yards rushing and only 9-of-24 completions via the air. Robinson has also tossed four picks the last two seasons vs. MSU, which would seem to need to do a similar job on the exciting Wolverine QB to have a chance to extend the series win streak to five this week.

[StarDust Bum]

Purdue Travels To Undefeated Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State is a 19-point favorite for Saturday’s clash with the Boilermakers.

The Ohio State Buckeyes continue their march to a perfect season when they host the Purdue Boilermakers in an early 12:00 p.m. (ET) start on Saturday.

The Don Best Pro Odds screen opened Ohio State as a 16½-point favorite, but it has jumped to -19. The total is 62½ and will be shown on either ABC or ESPN2 from Ohio Stadium.

Ohio State (7-0 straight up, 3-4 against the spread) has a great chance to go undefeated in coach Urban Meyer’s first season. There are no more ranked teams on the schedule, although visits to Penn State and Wisconsin, plus a home date against Michigan, will provide healthy competition.

The Buckeyes are ranked No. 7 by the AP and No. 12 in the Don Best Linemakers Poll. They’re not eligible for the Coaches Poll due to sanctions and also can’t play in the Big Ten title game or a Bowl. However, that doesn’t mean these regular season games are any less important.

Meyer’s men have risen to the occasion against top-25 opponents at Michigan State (17-16 win) and hosting Nebraska (63-38 win). However, they’re 1-4 ATS ranging between 15½-35½ point favorites (dropping the last four). That includes last Saturday’s 52-49 victory at Indiana as 19-point chalk.

Dual-threat quarterback Braxton Miller continues his Heisman worthy campaign. He had 211 passing yards last week and 149 more on the ground. He ranks sixth in the entire country in rushing (912 yards) and is also getting plenty of help from the bruising Carlos Hyde (454 yards in five games).

Opposing defenses can’t just worry about containing Miller’s running and throwing in the spread offense and the 57.5 PPG scored the last two weeks shows the unit is starting to peak.

Ohio State fans are more concerned about a defense that ranks just 69th nationally (400 YPG). Indiana had several big plays in racking up 481 total yards and the ‘D’ must play a lot better to cover Saturday’s spread.

The Boilermakers (3-3 SU and ATS) have had a tough start to their conference slate with home losses to Michigan (44-13) and Wisconsin (38-14). The run defense got gashed both games, allowing 304 yards in the former and 467 in the latter.

Coach Danny Hope’s team got dominated in time of possession with the rushing differential and it’s hard to score when the other team has the ball.

Purdue is now 0-3 ATS in its last three games after starting 3-0 ATS. The defense is allowing 41 PPG the last three, with the ‘over’ 4-0 in its last four.

Senior quarterback Caleb TerBush averaged just 92.5 yards passing the last two weeks. Robert Marve and Rob Henry also got snaps and were equally ineffective. Hope says TerBush will be the starter against OSU and play for a ‘sustained amount of time’ before considering a change.

Purdue has only played one game this year outside of Ross-Ade Stadium. That was September 8 at Notre Dame, a tough 20-17 loss as 14-point underdogs. However, the Boilers are not playing nearly as well right now.

Purdue is 6-2 ATS in the last eight against Ohio State, although getting blown out in Columbus (49-0) most recently in 2010.

The ‘under’ is 6-2 in the last eight meetings and would be 7-1 if not for Purdue’s 26-23 home win going into overtime last year.

[StarDust Bum]

Volunteers Look For Big Upset Against Top-Ranked Alabama

So far in the 2012 college football season, things have gone about as expected for Alabama (6-0 straight up, 3-3 vs. spread, No. 1 in Don Best Linemakers Poll).

Things have also gone about as expected for Tennessee (3-3 straight up, 2-4 vs. line). Unfortunately, in the Vols’ case, that might not be the best news for coach Derek Dooley.

Their annual battle, which is the basis for the permanent “crossover” game between SEC West and East squads, takes place Saturday in Knoxville. A quick check of the Don Best college football odds screen notes that 'Bama is a prohibitive 20-20½ point favorite at the majority of Las Vegas sports books, with the total at 56.

Kickoff time at Neyland Stadium has been switched to 7:00 p.m. (ET), with ESPN on hand to provide TV coverage.

There is also quite a history between the Crimson Tide and UT, and longtime Tide followers have experienced unbeaten Alabama sides running into Tennessee upset bids in the past. Perhaps the most memorable matchup came in 1966, when the twice defending national champion and unbeaten Bear Bryant-coached Tide trekked to Knoxville to face a dangerous Doug Dickey-coached Tennessee side that was hellbent on scoring a major upset that October 15, just over 46 years ago.

Third-ranked Alabama, which realized it would have clear sailing to a perfect regular season if it could get over the Volunteer hurdle, found itself behind 10-0 in the early going. Rain turned the field into a quagmire, covering the respective bright crimson and orange jerseys of each side with lots of mud. But Tennessee QB Dewey Warren had flipped a 6-yard TD pass to TE Austin Denney, and Gary Wright had connected on a 40-yard field goal to put the Vols up at intermission and well on their way to a significant upset.

The Crimson Tide finally began to stir in the second half behind QB Kenny Stabler, who entered the game completing 78 percent of his throws but missed on all six of his first-half passes. After a fumble recovery near midfield, the Snake led a 46-yard TD drive, capped by his own short TD run, and 2-point PAT pass to E Wayne Cook made the score 10-8. Stabler later drove the Tide deep into Vol territory in the fourth quarter before Steve Davis kicked a short FG for an 11-10 lead with 3:23 to play.

The “Swamp Rat” Warren was without timeouts, but nonetheless led UT downfield in the final moments, helped by a 23-yard pass to WB Charles Fulton. Setting up a short Gary Wright field goal attempt in the final 16 seconds, the Vols were snapping from the hashmark, setting up a sharply-angled short FG try, which Wright pushed inches wide. The Crimson Tide won 11-10 but slipped from third to fourth in the polls and could never make up the ground on Notre Dame or Michigan State for the rest of that season, ending No. 3 despite an eventual 11-0 mark and 34-7 romp past Nebraska in the Sugar Bowl.

The teams have met on several other memorable occasions through the years, although lately the rivalry has been slanted toward 'Bama, which hasn’t lost to the Vols since 2006 and also stands 6-1-1 vs. the line against UT since 2004. The Crimson Tide has also covered the last five trips to Neyland Stadium since 2002, with three different coaches (Dennis Franchione, Mike Shula and Nick Saban).

Last year, the Tide rolled by a 37-6 count in Tuscaloosa, a game in which the Vols were forced to start backup QB Matt Simms due to an earlier thumb injury suffered by started Tyler Bray.

Bray’s absence for a portion of 2011 granted Dooley a bit of a reprieve after last year’s 5-7 disappointment, but SEC sources have insisted from the outset this season that Dooley was on the hot seat and his job endangered if the Vols didn’t at least get back into the bowl mix (and preferably a decent postseason assignment). That’s all under review at the moment as UT sits at .500 at the midway point of the campaign and looking at a trip to highly-ranked South Carolina on deck after this battle with the top-ranked Crimson Tide.

With Bray (16 TD passes) in the fold, along with home run wideouts Justin Hunter (35 catches) and juco Cordarrelle Patterson (23 receptions), the Vols have some deep-ball threats. And they’ve balanced the offense much better this season behind RB Rajion Neal (500 YR), on his way to a 1000-yard season. Tennessee is also scoring 38 ppg.

But it’s on defense where the Vols have unraveled, as the addition of new coordinator Sal Sunseri – from Alabama, of all places – and his preferred 3-4 looks have not help stem the bleeding on the stop unit, which has been reeling in recent weeks and now ranks 90th in scoring “D” at 31.5 ppg. The leaks have been especially prevalent in the last two games, road losses at Georgia and Mississippi State, when UT allowed 51 and 41 points, respectively, in a pair of losses.

This could be a problem vs. a better-than-advertised 'Bama attack that’s scoring 40.5 ppg and boasts of perhaps the best offensive line in the country. The Crimson Tide, which has manhandled every foe it has faced this season, decided to focus on the run in the inclement weather at Missouri last week and merely churned for 321 rushing yards vs. the Tigers, led by RB Eddie Lacy’s career-best 177 yards rushing and another 144 from frosh backfield mate T.J. Yeldon.

The Vols cannot expect Alabama to beat itself, either, not with savvy QB A.J. McCarron having extended his interception-free streak to 227 passes. McCarron has also passed for nine TDs this season.

Moreover, the Tide continues to lead the nation in all pertinent defensive categories, including rushing (55 ypg), pass efficiency, scoring (mere 7.5 ppg) and overall (181 ypg).

Nick Saban’s “D” has been led by LB C.J. Mosley, who is playing at an All-American level, as is CB Dee Milliner, while LB Adrian Hubbard has become a pass-rushing force. Up front, NG Jesse Williams is occupying multiple blockers successfully, enabling the back eight to fly toward the football and make plays.

A consistent pass rush, led by Hubbard, has put the platoon on a par with last year’s legendary stop unit to this point.

Trend-wise, note that Saban’s side is 29-16 vs., the number since the 2009 season, with a 16-5 spread mark as road favorite. Meanwhile, the Vols are only 4-12 against the line as an underdog since Dooley arrived in 2010.

[StarDust Bum]

No. 3 Oregon visits Arizona State Thursday

OREGON DUCKS (6-0)
at ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS (5-1)

Kickoff: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Oregon -9.5, Total: 69

Two Pac-12 teams trying to improve to 4-0 in conference play clash on Thursday night when Arizona State hosts No. 3 Oregon.

Oregon has seven straight SU wins in this series, but Arizona State has covered the past two meetings, losing by just 11 and 14 points. The Ducks have scored at least 42 points in every game this year, but they also have 2+ giveaways in five straight contests. The Sun Devils have not lost ATS this year, and have allowed a total of 41 points during a three-game SU win streak. In three games at Sun Devil Stadium this year, ASU is outscoring opponents 145 to 27, but Oregon has a 10-game road win streak in Pac-12 play, posting 42.2 PPG during this run.

Can the Ducks stay unbeaten with a convincing road win? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Oregon's offense has been outstanding all year, ranking second in the nation with 52.3 PPG and eighth in total yardage at 542 YPG. Freshman QB Marcus Mariota has thrown an interception in each of his past four games, but he's still having a great season with 16 total touchdowns and 1,522 total yards (254 YPG) in six games. RB Kenjon Barner ranks 12th in the nation with 121 rushing YPG, and is excited to face an ASU team that he gained 171 rushing yards against in last season's 41-27 home win. De'Anthony Thomas rushed for 73 yards and 2 TD on just seven carries against the Sun Devils last year, and already has nine touchdowns to go along with 137 all-purpose YPG this season. This explosive trio will be up against a top-notch ASU defense, that ranks among the nation's top-10 teams in sacks (4.3 per game, 2nd), Tackles For Loss (9.8 per game, 2nd), pass defense (144 YPG, 5th), total defense (273 YPG, 8th) and scoring defense (14.2 PPG, 9th).

The Sun Devils are putting up 40.5 PPG and 479 total YPG so far this season. Sophomore QB Taylor Kelly ranks third in the nation in passing efficiency, completing 68.3% of his passes for 1,600 yards, 14 TD and 2 INT. In the past three games, he has thrown 11 touchdowns and no picks. After four straight contests with less than 200 rushing yards, the ASU ground game got cranking last week with 261 rushing yards at Colorado. Cameron Marshall and D.J. Foster combined for 159 yards on 22 carries (7.2 YPC) in that road win, while RB Marion Grice caught three touchdown passes. Oregon's defense has allowed 20.0 PPG and 360 total YPG this year, and also ranks 24th in the nation in sacks (2.8 per game). The Ducks have forced 14 turnovers in the past four games, but ASU has just two turnovers in three Pac-12 contests, with both coming in last week's blowout win.

[StarDust Bum]

Heisman Favorites Meet As West Virginia Hosts Kansas State

Two of the biggest Heisman Trophy favorites, quarterbacks Geno Smith of West Virginia and Collin Klein of Kansas State, meet up in Morgantown for a great encounter on Saturday night.

This is the first meeting between the schools since 1931.

The Don Best Pro Odds have West Virginia down to 3-point home favorites after opening at -4. The total is 71½ in an expected shootout and FOX will have the Big 12 broadcast at 7:00 p.m. (ET) from Mountaineer Field.

Smith is the heavy -250 favorite in the current Heisman odds. Klein and Ohio State’s Braxton Miller are the closest behind (both +600), followed by USC’s Matt Barkley (+700). That means a quarterback will almost assuredly win for the third year in a row and 10th time in the last 12.

The Mountaineers (5-1 straight up, 2-4 against the spread) were one of the most watched teams in college football to start the year with critics wondering how they would fare in their move from the Big East to Big 12.

Coach Dana Holgorsen’s guys started out conference play with wild wins over ranked Baylor (70-63) and Texas (48-45), but imploded last week at Texas Tech, a 49-14 loss as 3-point favorites. The Red Raiders got 499 passing yards and six TDs from their quarterback Seth Doege.

Smith threw for 275 yards, but only completed 52.7 percent of his passes with one touchdown. He still has 25 TDs versus no picks on the season and 2,271 passing yards overall, but he needs to deliver every week for West Virginia to win.

The Mountaineers’ scoring offense still ranks seventh in the nation (45.7 YPG), with the passing attack carrying most of the load. The scoring defense is way down at 109th (37.3 PPG) and almost every team in the Big 12 can score as WVU is painfully starting to find out.

Kansas State (6-0 SU, 4-1-1 ATS) has skyrocketed to No. 4 in the AP Poll and No. 3 in the Coaches after being towards the bottom of the top-25 in the preseason. West Virginia has plummeted to No. 17 in the AP and No. 15 in the Coaches after the Texas Tech defeat.

The Don Best Linemakers Poll has less than two points separating them with 11th-ranked Kansas State (116.1) ahead of 16th-ranked West Virginia (114.5).

The senior Klein has been one of the most underrated players in the country since last year, except to those who have seen him play. He’s a true dual-threat who is second on the team in rushing yards (510), but has also seen his passing accuracy improve (66.9 percent for 1,074 yards).

Kansas State ranks towards the bottom nationally in passing yards, but Klein’s efficiency rating (159.6) is 20th. The rushing offense is 11th overall at 248.5 YPG with diminutive junior John Hubert (606 yards) also extremely dangerous.

The Wildcats proved they were for real with a 24-19 win as 15½-point ‘dogs at Oklahoma on September 22. Their offense isn’t quite as explosive as West Virginia, but the defense is giving up just 16.5 PPG (ranked 19th).

The home and away ATS trends also favor Kansas State. The team is 6-0-1 in its last seven away, while West Virginia is 1-5 ATS in its last six at home.