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Spurs look to retake series lead on Monday

NBA PLAYOFF GAME PREVIEW

No. 2 OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

at No. 1 SAN ANTONIO SPURS


Western Conference Finals
Game 5 - Series tied 2-2
Tip-off: Monday, 9:05 p.m. ET
Line: San Antonio -5, Total: 202½

The Thunder took care of business at home with two straight victories, but to keep the win streak intact for Monday’s Game 5, they will need to hand the Spurs their first home loss since April 11.

San Antonio has run off 11 straight wins (9-1-1 ATS) at AT&T Center, beating Oklahoma City 101-98 in Game 1 and 120-111 in Game 2. The Spurs are 16-2 (12-5-1 ATS) at home versus the Thunder since 2005, scoring 105.5 PPG during a current six-game home win streak against them. But it was a different story for Oklahoma City at home in Game 4 on Saturday, as it evened up the West Finals with a 109-103 victory. SF Kevin Durant scored 36 points with eight assists and six rebounds, while PF Serge Ibaka chipped in 26 points on a perfect 11-of-11 shooting night. Which team will capture the series lead on Monday night? For the answer, connect to NBA Playoffs Best Bets for all the Expert picks for every playoff game during the 2012 postseason. Since May 18, ******* Dave is on a 13-6-1 ATS run, including 6-1-1 in his Best Bets.

San Antonio shot 50% from the floor and 48% from three-point range (11-of-23) in Game 4, but Oklahoma City shot a blistering 56.4% FG and outrebounded its opponent 41-31. Game 5 expects to be high-scoring again as the Thunder are putting up 101.5 PPG on 46.4% FG in the 2012 playoffs, while the Spurs are even more explosive at 102.2 PPG on 48.6% FG. Oklahoma City has the NBA’s third-best road record this season at 24-15, and is a strong 22-16-1 ATS away from home. San Antonio is 34-5 SU (28-9-2 ATS) at home this season, outscoring visitors by 12.4 PPG.

In addition to Ibaka’s 11-of-11 heroics on Saturday, C Kendrick Perkins also had his highest-scoring game since March 25, pumping in 15 points on 7-of-9 FG. Perkins also grabbed nine rebounds, a number he has surpassed just once this postseason. Durant’s consistency in the 2012 playoffs has been remarkable, as the Thunder star has scored at least 22 points in each game. He’s now averaging 29.0 PPG (53.4% FG), 6.8 RPG and 5.5 APG in the West Finals. The other Oklahoma City star, PG Russell Westbrook, scored 23.7 PPG in his first 11 playoff games, but has seen a sharp decline in his offense over the past two contests with a mere 17 points on 7-of-25 FG. His other numbers have remained strong though, with 14 assists, 11 rebounds and five steals in his team’s two victories. Sixth-man extraordinaire SG James Harden has scored in double-figures in each of his 13 playoff games, but he was a dismal 4-for-13 in Game 4. He still contributed greatly in other areas though, dishing out seven assists, pulling down seven rebounds and posting a game-high +12 rating in Saturday’s victory. SG Thabo Sefolosha came back down to earth after his enormous Game 3 (19 points, six rebounds), contributing a pedestrian six points and six rebounds in 22 minutes of in Game 4.

The Spurs had a balanced attack in Saturday’s loss, as eight players scored at least seven points. C Tim Duncan led the way with 21 points and eight rebounds, making 9-of-17 shots, which was quite an improvement from his 7-for-26 FG clip in Games 2 and 3. PG Tony Parker had his worst game of the series on Saturday with a meager 12 points (5-of-15 FG) and four assists. But Parker has been outstanding at home in the 2012 playoffs with 21.2 PPG (51% FG) and 7.8 APG. In his last game at AT&T Center in Game 2, Parker scored 34 points on 16-of-21 FG, and also dished out eight assists. SG Manu Ginobili has also been much more effective at home in this series (23.0 PPG on 60% FG) than on the road (10.5 PPG on 42% FG). SF Kawhi Leonard continued his roller coaster series that has seen him score 7, 18, 2 and 17 points in the four games. In addition to his 7-for-8 shooting in Game 4, Leonard also grabbed nine rebounds. The other two double-digit scorers on Saturday were starting PF Boris Diaw (12 points, seven rebounds) and reserve SG Stephen Jackson (11 points on 4-of-6 FG). After scoring just 4.0 PPG (2-of-6 FG) in Games 1-2, Jackson now has 13.5 PPG on 10-of-13 FG (77%) and 6-of-8 threes in his past two games.

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NBA

Monday, June 4

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Oklahoma City - 9:00 PM ET Oklahoma City +5 500

San Antonio - Over 202 500

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Heat Hope To Have Bosh Back For Game 5 With Celtics

The likely return of Miami’s Chris Bosh is the big story heading into Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Heat and Boston Celtics on Tuesday night.

Let’s first get the updated Monday odds between Oklahoma City and San Antonio. That series is tied 2-2 (just like Miami and Boston) and the Spurs are 5-point home chalk with a total of 202. There has been movement on San Antonio and the ‘under’ after opening at -4½ and 202½ respectively.

A couple of quick points for this series has the ‘under’ and ‘over’ alternating each game, most recently going ‘over’ in Saturday’s 109-103 Thunder win. The ‘over’ is 5-2 in the seven meetings between the teams this year.

Kevin Durant was incredible in the fourth quarter of Game 4 (18 points), but the team’s big men tandem of Serge Ibaka (26 points, 11-of-11 from the field) and Kendrick Perkins (15 points, 7-of-9 shooting) also played great. The Thunder seem to have made the necessary adjustments on offense and defense, and the Spurs could be in trouble if Ibaka and Perkins continue to play well.

Oklahoma City point guard Russell Westbrook had just seven points last game, but Don Best Sports analyst Pat Williams points out that’s not a bad thing as he’s not forcing his offense.

Spurs’ backers tonight will point to the fact they haven’t lost three games in a row all season. They had a 20-game winning streak before losing the last two in Oklahoma City.

Getting back to the Eastern Conference, Miami is listed as big 8-point home favorites for Tuesday with a total of 179. The Heat have failed to cover the last three games after being successful in the opener. The ‘over' is 3-0 in the last three after going ‘under’ in Game 1.

Boston was called old (and other things) after losing the first two games in South Beach, but rebounded to win the last two in Beantown.

Bosh (abdominal) is listed as probable on the Don Best injury report. He’s been out since Game 1 of the Pacers series last round and will be a big addition, especially defensively. Miami has had a real hard time putting a body on Kevin Garnett (20.5 PPG this series).

Bench play has been vital for the Celtics the last two games after being awful in the first two. Keyon Dooling, Marquis Daniels and Mickael Pietrus all provided quality minutes.

Rajon Rondo has continued to haunt Miami at 24.5 PPG and 10.5 APG this series. It’s going to be very interesting on Tuesday if the Heat don’t find a way to slow him down.

Miami needs to get more aggressive play from Dwyane Wade. He shot just five total free throws the last two games. He needs to take the ball to the basket hard as the Celtics defense is focusing on him, figuring LeBron James will get his points either way.

Don Best’s Williams thinks the health of Ray Allen could be the key for the rest of the series. The bone spurs in his ankles are reportedly feeling much better and his 16 points in Game 4 was an indication of that. He was also 4-of-11 from long range and just his threat from that distance opens up the floor for the rest of the team.

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Game 5, Celtics-Heat

June 4, 2012

The Eastern Conference Finals hasn't technically begun yet since the home team has won each of the first four games. Boston staved off Miami in overtime of Sunday's thrilling Game 4 with a 93-91 victory to cash as two-point underdogs, sending the series back to South Florida tied at two games apiece. Miami has plenty of concerns moving forward, but the Heat realizes it cannot dig themselves a huge hole like they have each of the last three games.

Erik Spoelstra's squad has fallen behind by at least 15 points in Games 2, 3, and 4, while finding a way to rally back and take the lead in the fourth quarter twice. Boston grabbed a 61-47 halftime advantage in Game 4, as the Heat has not led at the intermission one time in this series. The first half total easily sailed 'over' 89 ½, while the Celtics continue to be a money-maker in first half plays by cashing at pick-em. Boston built the lead to as much as 18 points before Miami rallied back.

The Heat's comeback in Game 3 fell short, but tried again in Game 4 by holding the Celtics to just 28 points in the second half. Miami captured the lead in the fourth quarter thanks to rookie Norris Cole, who scored four straight points to give the Heat a 78-76 advantage with 7:41 remaining. The Celtics came back to take the lead, but LeBron James drilled a three-pointer in the final minute to even things up and head to overtime. The three-time MVP fell short of his player prop (courtesy of Sportsbook.ag) of 37 combined points and assists by scoring 29 points and dishing out three assists before fouling out in overtime.

In spite of Paul Pierce fouling out in the extra session, the Celtics found a way to stave off the Heat, 4-2, while James also was disqualified for the first time in his Heat tenure after picking up an offensive foul. The game barely finished 'over' the total, as Dwyane Wade's three-point attempt at the buzzer didn't go in, while the Heat has lost two games in a playoff series for the third time in seven attempts in the Big Three era.

Looking ahead to Game 5, there is a slight chance that third member of Miami's star trio may return to the lineup. Chris Bosh has sat out each of the previous nine contests with an abdominal injury, but there are reports that the All-Star forward will try to suit up and play on Tuesday. Miami finished this season at 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS at home when Bosh was the only player to sit out, as the lone loss came to Indiana in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference semifinals.

Miami definitely steps up at home coming off a loss, owning a spectacular 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS this season in that situation, while scoring at least 97 points on 10 occasions. The Celtics have put together a 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS record in the postseason on the highway off a victory, as Boston looks to snap a seven-game losing streak as a road underdog off a win.

From the totals standpoint, VegasInsider.com's Chris David breaks things down heading into Tuesday, "Even though the 'over' has gone 3-1 in the first four games of this series, the oddsmakers have kept their ratings in check and haven't swayed much on the total. The number has ranged from 178 ½ to 179 ½ and Game 5 is no different, with the number opening at 180 and settling at 179 ½ points."

"When you have low totals like this and you get good shooting performances, you're going to see the 'over' cash more often than not and that's what has happened in this series. The pace hasn't been fast, and the amount of free throws attempted was only ridiculous in Game 2 when the pair combined for 76 trips to the charity stripe," David adds.

Heading into Tuesday's contest, David looks for a low-scoring game than what was seen in Boston, "For Game 5, I would lean 'under' based on the pace and you would expect the refs to let them play a little more in this key game. Also, the return of Bosh should help Miami defensively. The one thing that's hard to ignore is that the 'over' has cashed at a 67% clip (8-4) in the last 12 meetings between these teams and Miami's offense at home operates much more efficiently."

The Heat is back to laying heavy wood at home, sitting as eight-point favorites. The game tips off at 8:30 PM EST from American Airlines Arena and can be seen nationally on ESPN.

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Heat try to end 2-game skid Tuesday

NBA PLAYOFF GAME PREVIEW

No. 4 BOSTON CELTICS

at No. 2 MIAMI HEAT


Eastern Conference Finals
Game 5 - Series tied 2-2
Tip-off: Tuesday, 8:35 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -8, Total: 179

The Celtics found a way to outlast the Heat 93-91 in overtime in Game 4, and now the Eastern Conference Finals are all tied up at two games apiece as the teams travel to South Beach for Tuesday’s Game 5.

The big news for Tuesday is that Miami PF Chris Bosh might actually play. He’s missed the past nine games with an abdominal strain, and is listed as day-to-day. Sunday’s Game 4 was not an offensive showcase as Miami shot just 42.5% FG, which was actually better than Boston’s 41.2% clip from the floor. The C’s blew an 18-point lead in the second half and were bailed out when LeBron James (29 points) fouled out for the first time in a Heat uniform. All five Boston starters scored in double figures, but the team scored a measly 32 points after halftime, a huge dropoff from its 61 first-half points. Can Miami win by such a hefty spread on Tuesday? For the answer, connect to NBA Playoffs Best Bets for all the Expert picks for every playoff game during the 2012 postseason. Since May 18, ******* Dave is on a 13-6-1 ATS (68.4%) run, including 6-1-1 in his Best Bets.

Although Miami dominated points in the paint (48-38), many of the other Game 4 statistics were quite even. Boston had two more assists (22-20), one more block (7-6) and two fewer turnovers (15-17), while Miami had one more rebound (40-39) and three more free-throws made (17-14). The last time these teams played at AmericanAirlines Arena, the game was also extremely close with the Heat winning a 115-111 overtime thriller. Miami is 35-6 (23-17-1 ATS) at home this season, outscoring these opponents by an average of 100.4 to 88.9 PPG. Boston is a woeful 17-24 SU (20-21 ATS) on the road this season, which includes four straight road defeats by an average of 8.5 PPG.

Although Rondo has had a magnificent East Finals series (24.0 PPG, 10.5 APG, 7.0 RPG), he has to be tired after logging 46.8 minutes per game. But at least Rondo is still young at 26 years old, which is not the case for Garnett (36), SG Ray Allen (36) or SF Paul Pierce (34), who played 43, 46 and 39 minutes, respectively on Sunday night. Allen had his third straight double-figure scoring output with 16 points (4-of-11 threes) in Game 4, while Pierce was able to contribute 23 points (8-of-18 FG) and six rebounds before fouling out. Only two other Celtics outside The Big Four even scored a field goal on Sunday. Starting PF Brandon Bass notched 11 points and seven rebounds in his 33 minutes of action while reserve PG Keyon Dooling added 10 points in just 16 minutes.

The duo of James and Dwyane Wade continues to lead the Miami offense. James’ 29 points and six rebounds were helpful in Game 4, but his seven turnovers and six fouls proved costly. Wade scored 20 points, but hurt his team with his shooting, making just 7-of-22 shots, including missing the game-winning three-point attempt in the closing seconds of overtime. Wade had a stellar all-around game on Sunday though, with seven rebounds, six assists, three steals and three blocks. Speaking of stellar, PF Udonis Haslem was a beast in Game 4 with 12 points and a whopping 17 rebounds (four offensive). He could take a back seat to Bosh on Tuesday if the Heat All-Star PF is able to return. In the regular season, Bosh averaged a double-double against Boston (11.7 PPG, 10.3 RPG), but shot just 42.9% from the floor. Miami would also like to see more production out of two of its starters, as SF Shane Battier had just six points, and zero rebounds in 42 minutes of Game 4, and C Joel Anthony posted a game-low minus-11 rating in just 15 minutes of work.

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

06/04/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

06/03/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

06/02/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

06/01/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

Totals 7-*1-*0 87.50% +2950

Tuesday, June 5

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston - 8:30 PM ET Miami -8 500

Miami - Over 179 500

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Tuesday, June 5

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Atlanta - 7:00 PM ET Atlanta +2 500

New York - Over 161.5 500

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Celtics Bring 3-2 Lead Over Heat Back To Boston

After watching the Boston Celtics drop Games 1 and 2 in the Eastern Conference Finals, you would have not been wide of the mark by describing this year’s Celtics as old and pretending.

But now, after three straight victories and against the spread covers, Boston must be regarded as experienced and contending.

An amazing three-game stretch by a trio of sure-fire, first-ballot hall of famers and their emotional but uber-talented point guard have the Celtics within one home-court win of the 2012 NBA Finals. Boston will find itself, once again, an underdog at home vs. the Miami Heat. Miami is now favored in Game 6 by 1½ points according to the Don Best odds screen, with a posted total of 179.

Tip from TD Garden is 8:30 p.m. (ET) on Thursday with ESPN providing the television coverage.

Forget Boston being 4-1 against the spread in this best of seven series. Forget Miami’s dismal 1-10 against the spread record in its last 11 trips to Boston. At this moment, Boston is the better basketball team, period. With that being said, how in the world can Boston be getting points on their home floor?

All the pressure, as we all witnessed in the fourth quarter of Game 5, will be squarely on the shoulders of the Heat, and through the first five games of the series, they still do not appear ready to handle it.

Playing with extreme confidence and expecting to beat the Heat every time they take the floor, Boston’s continual show of heart and experience is clearly an extension of head coach Doc Rivers who heaped praise on his squad after the C's took a 3-2 lead in the series.

"It's just a good team. A close-knit team. We have a lot of positive talk in our locker room, a lot," Rivers noted. "Honestly they believe they can win and we just have to keep hanging in there.

"I told them, we've done nothing. We're going to Boston, they're not going to give it to us, and we have to go get it."

Boston playing great team defense in Game 6 is a given. The Celtics continue to rely on ball movement, making the extra pass and playing as a team is also a given. Miami getting big numbers from LeBron James and probably from Dwyane Wade is a given. Chris Bosh’s points, rebounds and ability to defend Kevin Garnett in Game 6 remain huge question marks but one way or the other, will determine the outcome.

Bosh (9 points, 7 rebounds) sparked the Heat in Game 5 but did not see the floor in the always critical fourth quarter. Look for Bosh to play as much as physically possible in Game 6. The Heat’s season, and Miami head coach Eric Spoelstra’s job, both depend on it.

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Game 6, Spurs-Thunder

June 6, 2012

The Western Conference Finals looked like San Antonio's to lose after winning the first two games at home. However, the young and hungry Thunder are making plenty of noise with three consecutive victories, as Oklahoma City can close things out with a home win in Wednesday's Game 6.

The Thunder proved they weren't going away with consecutive triumphs at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Games 3 and 4, but the ultimate test was shocking the Spurs, 108-103 as five-point road underdogs in Game 5. San Antonio led by seven points early on, but OKC stormed back to take a 50-36 advantage after a three-point play by James Harden. The Spurs managed to cut the halftime deficit to eight points at the halftime, 52-44, as the Thunder cashed as three-point 'dogs in the first half.

Things were starting to turn around for Spurs' backers in the second half as San Antonio's late first half run translated eventually into a 67-61 lead with less than six minutes remaining in the third quarter. Manu Ginobili led the charge by scoring 11 points, including a trio of three-pointers in a two-minute span to open things up for the Spurs. However, six points would be the largest advantage for San Antonio in the second half, as the Thunder closed the third quarter with a 20-5 run to reclaim a comfortable nine-point cushion heading to the fourth period.

The keys for OKC's third quarter rally were its two young stars, as Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combined for 17 points in the final six minutes. The Thunder held on to a double-digit lead for most of the fourth quarter until the Spurs made it interesting in the final minutes. San Antonio had a shot to tie the game late, but Ginobili's three-point attempt came up short, along with the Spurs' comeback.

Looking ahead to tonight, Oklahoma City returns home with a shot to return to the NBA Finals for the first time since the Seattle days in 1996. The Thunder is the only team this postseason that has not lost at home, owning a 7-0 SU and 4-3 ATS at Chesapeake Energy Arena. OKC is riding a three-game ATS hot streak at home after starting 1-3 ATS in the playoffs, while hitting the 'over' five of seven times at home.

San Antonio has quickly turned into a 'fade' machine after going on an incredible 17-3 ATS during its 20-game winning streak, as the Spurs have failed to cash in three straight contests. Gregg Popovich's club is 1-3 SU/ATS the last four times when facing elimination dating back to 2009, while the lone victory came in Game 5 of the opening round in overtime against Memphis last season.

VegasInsider.com's Chris David weighs in on tonight's contest, "I'm not surprised Oklahoma City has won three straight. This is a legit team that won the third-most games in this year's regular season. What's a little stunning is that OKC has been able to withstand every counter-punch from San Antonio and make shot after shot in big moments, especially on the road in Game 5."

"During the three wins by the Thunder, they've averaged 106 PPG, shot 50 percent from the field and they connected on 85% of their attempts from the free throw line, which is unheard of. Outside of the blowout in Game 3 which they conceded, San Antonio has played a solid series. Unfortunately for the Spurs, OKC has been better, especially when it comes to closing," David notes.

The Thunder looks to keep up their home dominance, as David analyzes the Game 6 line movement, "The betting public is already backing OKC with the line jumping from the opener of 3 ½ to 5 and it's certainly tough to fade a team that is 7-0 at home in the playoffs. However, four of those wins came by six points or less, so don't start lighting the cigars and asking to see the wine list after the first quarter."

From an advantage standpoint, David says to be creative if the Spurs are your choice tonight, "If you believe San Antonio can force a Game 7, then the smarter play would be taking the Spurs on the adjusted series price, which is listed around 3/1 odds at a few offshore shops. It's better than the 2/1 money-line odds on Game 6 and if the Spurs win Wednesday, then you can buy back with Oklahoma City with the points for Game 7 and possibly hit both ends!"

What's interesting throughout this entire series is the consistent scoring in each half, broken down by David, "If you've followed this series and play totals routinely, then you should be well aware that the 'under' now stands at 5-0 in the first-half of this series and the 'over' has rallied to a 4-1 mark in the second-half. You know you're going to get a ton of 3-pointers taken, it's just a matter if they fall or not."

The Thunder is set at 4 ½-point favorites, while the total is listed at 202 tonight. The game tips off at 9:00 PM EST and can be seen nationally on TNT.

[StarDust Bum]

Momentum has Thunder a win shy of finals

June 5, 2012

OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) - Down and nearly out less than a week ago, the Oklahoma City Thunder are riding a momentum shift to the brink of the NBA finals.

With three straight wins, the Thunder have changed the conversation from how anyone can stop the San Antonio Spurs' record-setting 20-game winning streak to how Oklahoma City needs just one win on its home court in Game 6 on Wednesday night to play for the NBA title.

Hundreds of fans waited in the middle of the night for the Thunder's plane to land after Game 5, and thousands more will pack Chesapeake Energy Arena to cheer Oklahoma City on. Yet coach Scott Brooks urged Tuesday that riding the momentum isn't enough to get the job done.

``We have a great opportunity, we're on our home floor but that doesn't guarantee automatic victory,'' Brooks said during a day off at the team's practice facility. ``They're not going to give us the game. They're not just going to say, `We've lost three in a row, we're going to give in.' We know we have a tough challenge ahead.''

Brooks stood near the same spot just a week earlier, surprised when a reporter told him that only 6 percent of NBA teams over the years had overcome an 0-2 deficit in a seven-game series. Now, his Thunder could become only the 15th team to pull off the feat - and the eighth since 2004.

``The percentages, you can't really feed into that because you know that there's always a chance,'' Brooks said. ``There's 48 minutes to prove that you're the better team that night, and we have an opportunity tomorrow night to do that again.''

A series of defensive adjustments by Brooks helped turn the series, with 6-foot-7 Thabo Sefolosha switching onto All-Star point guard Tony Parker in Game 3 the most visible change. The Spurs have been tinkering ever since to get back in the groove they'd been riding since mid-April but instead have lost three straight games for the first time all season.

Coach Gregg Popovich put sixth man Manu Ginobili in the starting lineup for Game 5, getting a playoff-best 34 points from the Argentine guard but disrupting the bench rotation in the process. He has also gotten DeJuan Blair back in the mix after benching the former starter for the first part of the playoffs.

``I think we have the right game plan,'' Spurs All-Star Tim Duncan said. ``We just need to play a little better for a little longer.''

After being blown out by 20 in Game 3, the Spurs have lost the last two by a combined nine points and now must find a way to snap Oklahoma City's seven-game home win streak.

``It's not that we have a Game 8 or 9 to recover, so it's either win or go home,'' Ginobili said. ``So we have to. It's our job. So nobody is going to feel sorry about ourselves, we've just got to go compete. We know it's hard to beat them there, but it's what we have to do. We've got to step up and play the best game of the season.''

Ginobili downplayed the changes in Xs and Os and said it comes down to making a couple key plays at the right time. For instance, Oklahoma City's James Harden hit a clutch 3-pointer with the shot clock running down in the final 30 seconds of Game 5, and Ginobili missed a 3 that could have tied it with about 5 seconds left.

Switch those up, and the series looks different.

``It is the first team to four wins, so there really isn't anything to celebrate or get happy about until you win the series,'' Thunder guard Derek Fisher said. ``This team made it to the conference finals last year and I don't think anybody was happy with the final result, so who cares if we are up 3-2 now? If we don't finish our business, it does not mean anything and that has to be our mentality going into it.''

After all, if momentum swung once in the series, it could again. The Spurs hadn't lost at home all postseason either - until Oklahoma City pulled off its win Monday night.

``We don't pound our chests, we don't tell everybody how good we are,'' Brooks said. ``We feel that our worth is through our work, and if we continue to work hard and if we continue to play together, we're going to have some good results. The expectations always have been there for us.''

But never has the reality been so close.

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[StarDust Bum]

Thunder seek NBA Finals berth on Wednesday

NBA PLAYOFF GAME PREVIEW

No. 1 SAN ANTONIO SPURS

at No. 2 OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER


Western Conference Finals
Game 6 - Oklahoma City leads series 3-2
Tip-off: Wednesday, 9:05 p.m. ET
Line: Oklahoma City -5, Total: 202

After winning 20 straight games, the collapsing Spurs must now stop a three-game losing skid to keep their season going Wednesday night in Oklahoma City.

The Thunder offense remained hot on Monday night, scoring 108 points on 50% FG to win on the road, 108-103. The Spurs shot 46% from the floor, and held the advantage in both rebounding (42-34) and points in the paint (38-30), but committed 21 turnovers. Oklahoma City’s top three scorers -- Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden -- combined for 70 of the 108 points with 20 of the team’s 22 assists. Now the series moves back to Chesapeake Energy Center, where the Thunder are 33-7 SU, including a perfect 7-0 in the playoffs. The Spurs are an excellent road team at 26-13 (22-16-1 ATS) though. Can San Antonio extend its season on Wednesday night? For the answer, connect to NBA Playoffs Best Bets for all the Expert picks for every playoff game during the 2012 postseason. Since May 18, ******* Dave is on a 14-7-1 ATS run, including 6-1-1 in his Best Bets.

Both teams are certainly capable of putting up points in bunches, as San Antonio averages 102.2 PPG (48.4% FG) in the playoffs, while Oklahoma City isn’t far behind at 102.0 PPG (46.7% FG). For this series, the Spurs are averaging 101.8 PPG on 47.3% FG and 40.7% threes, while the Thunder are putting up 105.6 PPG in this series, shooting 47% FG and 37.5% threes. The big difference has been at the foul line as San Antonio is making just 71.3% of its foul shots while Oklahoma City is knocking down freebies at an 83.3% clip.

Spurs SG Manu Ginobili had a monster Game 5, scoring 34 points (11-of-21 FG, 5-of-10 threes) with seven assists and six rebounds in his first start since March 23. PG Tony Parker struggled to shoot the basketball on Monday, going 5-for-14 from the floor. Since his 34-point breakout in Game 2, Parker has made just 39% of his shots during his team’s three-game losing skid. C Tim Duncan had no problem putting the ball in the basket in Game 5, scoring 18 points on 7-of-10 FG. He also pulled down a game-high 12 rebounds and posted a team-best +17 rating. Reserve SG Stephen Jackson was the only other Spurs player that eclipsed five points on Monday, pumping in 13 points on 5-of-9 FG (3-of-6 threes). Jackson has 13.3 PPG (68% FG, 9-of-14 threes) in his past three games, which is a huge jump from his previous six contests (2.2 PPG on 33% FG). Starting frontcourt players SF Kawhi Leonard and C Boris Diaw combined for just nine points (3-of-9 FG) in 59 minutes on Monday, but Leonard did grab 10 rebounds, seven more than Diaw.

SF Kevin Durant continues to have a remarkable offensive series with 28.6 PPG on 53.3% FG and 95.1% FT (39-of-41). He’s also added 6.2 RPG, 5.4 APG and 1.8 SPG. Durant’s offense has been more necessary than usual because the team’s No. 2 scoring option, PG Russell Westbrook, can’t find the ocean right now. Despite his team winning three straight games, Westbrook has made just 16-of-49 FG (32.7%) during this stretch. Luckily his teammates are shooting a hefty 55% FG during the win streak. SG James Harden is having a strong West Finals series with 19.0 PPG on 50% FG (11-of-19 threes). He’s added 5.6 RPG, 3.6 APG and 1.4 SPG, and finished Game 5 with an impressive +24 rating. In his past four games, the Thunder have outscored the Spurs by 55 points with Harden on the floor. The three other OKC reserves (PF Nick Collison, PG Derek Fisher and SG Daequan Cook) combined for 20 points (8-of-12 FG) and a +21 rating in Game 5. Starting PF Serge Ibaka went 11-for-11 from the floor in Game 4, but he played just 19 minutes in Game 5, scoring nine points (4-of-6 FG) and grabbing five rebounds. Starting C Kendrick Perkins also saw a decline in production from 15 points (7-of-9 FG) in Game 4 to just four points (1-of-4 FG) and a minus-17 rating in Game 5.

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NBA

Wednesday, June 6

Game Score Status Pick Amount

San Antonio - 9:00 PM ET San Antonio +4.5 500

Oklahoma City - Over 201.5 500


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WNBA

Wednesday, June 6

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Seattle - 8:00 PM ET Minnesota -11.5 500

Minnesota - Under 146.5 500

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Celtics Bring 3-2 Lead Over Heat Back To Boston


After watching the Boston Celtics drop Games 1 and 2 in the Eastern Conference Finals, you would have not been wide of the mark by describing this year’s Celtics as old and pretending.

But now, after three straight victories and against the spread covers, Boston must be regarded as experienced and contending.

An amazing three-game stretch by a trio of sure-fire, first-ballot hall of famers and their emotional but uber-talented point guard have the Celtics within one home-court win of the 2012 NBA Finals. Boston will find itself, once again, an underdog at home vs. the Miami Heat. Miami is now favored in Game 6 by 1½ points according to the Don Best odds screen, with a posted total of 179.

Tip from TD Garden is 8:30 p.m. (ET) on Thursday with ESPN providing the television coverage.

Forget Boston being 4-1 against the spread in this best of seven series. Forget Miami’s dismal 1-10 against the spread record in its last 11 trips to Boston. At this moment, Boston is the better basketball team, period. With that being said, how in the world can Boston be getting points on their home floor?

All the pressure, as we all witnessed in the fourth quarter of Game 5, will be squarely on the shoulders of the Heat, and through the first five games of the series, they still do not appear ready to handle it.

Playing with extreme confidence and expecting to beat the Heat every time they take the floor, Boston’s continual show of heart and experience is clearly an extension of head coach Doc Rivers who heaped praise on his squad after the C's took a 3-2 lead in the series.

"It's just a good team. A close-knit team. We have a lot of positive talk in our locker room, a lot," Rivers noted. "Honestly they believe they can win and we just have to keep hanging in there.

"I told them, we've done nothing. We're going to Boston, they're not going to give it to us, and we have to go get it."

Boston playing great team defense in Game 6 is a given. The Celtics continue to rely on ball movement, making the extra pass and playing as a team is also a given. Miami getting big numbers from LeBron James and probably from Dwyane Wade is a given. Chris Bosh’s points, rebounds and ability to defend Kevin Garnett in Game 6 remain huge question marks but one way or the other, will determine the outcome.

Bosh (9 points, 7 rebounds) sparked the Heat in Game 5 but did not see the floor in the always critical fourth quarter. Look for Bosh to play as much as physically possible in Game 6. The Heat’s season, and Miami head coach Eric Spoelstra’s job, both depend on it.

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Celtics try to close out Heat Thursday at home

NBA PLAYOFF GAME PREVIEW

No. 2 MIAMI HEAT

at No. 4 BOSTON CELTICS


Eastern Conference Finals
Game 6 – Boston leads series 3-2
Tip-off: Thursday, 8:35 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -1½, Total: 179

The Celtics have taken control of the Eastern Conference Finals with three straight wins, and will look to finish off the Heat in Thursday night’s Game 6 in Boston.

Despite Miami All-Star PF Chris Bosh returning to the floor after a nine-game absence on Thursday night, Boston was able to win Game 5 at AmericanAirlines Arena, 94-90. The Celtics overcame poor shooting nights from three of their four stars (Rajon Rondo 3-of-15 FG, Paul Pierce 6-of-19 FG and Ray Allen 2-of-9 FG), thanks mostly to PF Kevin Garnett (26 points, 11 rebounds) and partly to reserve SF Mickael Pietrus scoring 13 points with two huge threes late in the fourth quarter. The Heat dynamic duo of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade combined for 57 points on 21-of-47 FG (45%), but the rest of the team made just 11-of-35 shots (31%). Bosh logged only 14 minutes, but still managed nine points and seven rebounds. Now the series shifts back to TD Garden where Boston is 8-1 SU (5-4 ATS) this postseason, allowing a mere 84.2 PPG to its visitors. Can Miami force a Game 7 on Thursday? For the answer, connect to NBA Playoffs Best Bets for all the Expert picks for every playoff game during the 2012 postseason. Since May 18, ******* Dave is on a 14-7-1 ATS (66.7%) run, including 6-1-1 in his Best Bets.

Although Miami outrebounded Boston substantially on Tuesday (49-39), the foul calls in this game were dead-even at 21 apiece. That resulted in 27 Celtics free-throw attempts and 25 trips to the line for the Heat. Miami committed three more turnovers (15-12) and shot just 7-for-26 (27%) from behind the three-point arc, while Boston made 6-of-15 threes (40%). For the series, neither offense has been great. The Heat are averaging 96.0 PPG on 45% FG (29% threes), while the Celtics have 95.6 PPG on 44% FG (33% threes).

James has been unguardable all series, scoring 29+ points in each of the five games (31.8 PPG), while chalking up 10.0 RPG with 4.0 APG. The one knock on James in his past three contests is his inability to cash in at the free-throw line. After making 18-of-24 freebies in Game 2, James is a dreadful 11-for-21 from the foul line during his team’s three-game skid. Wade is also having a great offensive series with 18+ points in each game (22.0 PPG). But his rating is just +1 over the past three contests. PF Udonis Haslem scored just three points in 33 minutes on Tuesday, but he grabbed double-digit rebounds (14) for the third time in four games. PG Mario Chalmers has seen both his points and ratings decline in each of the past three games, averaging just 11.7 PPG (41.9% FG, 2-of-10 threes) with a combined minus-15 rating during the Heat’s three defeats. SF Shane Battier has also had a rough three games with a paltry 11 points (4-of-14 FG), five rebounds and minus-6 rating in 112 minutes of action. Battier began the series with 9.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG and a cumulative +28 rating in Games 1-2.

Although Rondo has had a fantastic East Finals series (20.6 PPG, 11.0 APG, 6.8 RPG), he appeared to have tired legs in Game 5 with his 3-for-15 shooting night. He has played 46.2 minutes per game in this series after logging 40.3 MPG in the seven-game series versus Philadelphia in the East semifinals. The rims have been kind Rondo at TD Garden though, as he’s making 47.2% of his shots at home in the playoffs. Garnett has 19.9 PPG and 10.8 RPG in the 2012 playoffs, including double-digit rebounds in 14 of 18 games. After posting a minus-15 rating in Games 1-2, he has a stellar +38 rating during the three-game win streak. Pierce has been putting up bricks all series (35.8% FG), but has still managed 19.6 PPG, thanks to 22-of-24 FT. His other stats in the East Finals haven’t been stellar either with just 4.4 RPG, 14 assists and 12 turnovers. But he did make the biggest shot of Game 5, burying a three-pointer with 52 seconds left to extend his team’s lead to four points. SG Ray Allen has also been ice-cold from the floor in this series (35% FG), but he was clutch from the foul line on Tuesday (8-for-8) and hit the boards hard with seven rebounds. Starting PF Brandon Bass scored 10 points (4-of-8 FG) in Game 5, increasing his modest series scoring average to 8.2 PPG.

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Game 6, Heat-Celtics

June 7, 2012

The Celtics were two losses away from having their season end and the window nearly slam shut on the Big Three of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Ray Allen. However, Boston has stormed back with three consecutive victories, while looking to end Miami's season in tonight's Game 6 at TD Garden. The Heat has cooled down after taking the 2-0 lead, but the most disappointing defeat came in Tuesday's 94-90 home setback in Game 5.

Miami led by 13 points early on in the crucial Game 5, but Boston rallied to cut the deficit to two at the half. Interestingly enough, that was the first time the Heat held the advantage at halftime in any of the first five games of this series, but Miami failed to cash as 4 ½-point favorites in the first half. Pierce and Rajon Rondo combined to make three field goals in the first two quarters, while LeBron James paced the Heat with 18 points and Chris Bosh returned from an abdominal injury to score nine early points.

The Celtics managed to tie the game at 50-50 with less than eight minutes remaining in the third quarter, but Miami looked like it was ready to pull away with a quick 9-0 spurt. Boston's defense stepped up by limiting Miami to one point in the final 5:41 of the third period, while reeling off a 15-1 run, putting Heat -7 ½ tickets in doubt.

In this back-and-forth affair, Erik Spoelstra's club put together a 16-4 run to regain a 78-72 advantage halfway through the fourth quarter, thanks to 13 points from James and Dwyane Wade. The Celtics pulled through with a pair of huge three-pointers from Pierce and Mickael Pietrus in the final minutes, as Boston not only cashed as 7 ½-point 'dogs, but also on the money-line at +350.

As the series shifts back to Beantown, that spells trouble for the Heat, who has dropped 14 of the last 15 trips to TD Garden. The only victory in this span came in overtime in Game 4 of the second round last postseason, as Miami is just 1-10 ATS the previous 11 games in Boston. Also, the C's own an 8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS home playoff record, but this will be only the second time that Boston is listed as a home underdog this postseason.

Since so much of the Heat's focus usually falls on James, it's interesting to note that the three-time MVP hasn't won an elimination game on the road in four tries (Cleveland went 1-3 ATS), while this is the first time James' back is against the wall in a Miami uniform on the highway.

From the player props standpoint tonight, Sportsbook.ag lists total points for James at 31 (shaded to the 'over' at -130) and 24 ½ for Wade (shaded to the 'over' at -135). Wade has started slow in the first half in each of the five games so far in the series, averaging a shade above six points. Even though Rondo struggled in Game 5 by scoring just seven points, Sportsbook.ag has set the Boston's point guard's points, rebounds, and assists total at 36 ½ tonight (shaded to the 'over' at -125).

VegasInsider.com's Chris David take a look at several total notes for tonight's Game 6, "Total players have seen the 'over' cash in four of the five games in this series and you can make an argument that the number has been too low. None of the closing totals have been higher than 180 and Game 6's number is hovering right around 179 points. The 'under' should've cashed in Game 5 and was definitely the right side but the game turned into a free throw shooting contest and we saw 25 combined points scored in the final three minutes, 10 from the charity stripe."

"The first-half finally went 'under' on Tuesday, which was the first time it occurred in this series. But the second-half 'over' cashed as the two teams combined for 102 points. Based on the pace of this series, I would lean 'under' again and hope neither team blows up offensively. If you get the tight game, you could have bonus points put up at the end but you can also have possession basketball and that's great for any 'under' ticket."

David points out that even though the Celtics can close tonight, betting Boston to advance hasn't worked yet in this situation, "While fading Boston at home in the playoffs has been a poor investment, you have to be aware that this team didn't put away Atlanta and Philadelphia when it had the opportunity. The word 'comfortable' comes to mind with the Celtics, but maybe knowing that a possible Game 7 on the road in South Florida will have Doc Rivers stressing urgency at home."

The Celtics have won only three of 13 times in the Big 3 era in their first opportunity to close a series, including an 0-2 mark this postseason. However, David notes that nine of those losses came on the highway, as Boston is 2-1 at home in the first shot of these closeout contests. Meanwhile, since the All-Star break, the Celtics have two losses at TD Garden and both came by exactly one point.

The Heat is set as two-point road favorites, as the last team to trail 3-2 and to be listed as 'away' chalk was Orlando in 2011, but the Magic fell to the Hawks and got eliminated. Tonight's Game 6 tips off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen nationally on ESPN.

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

06/06/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
06/05/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
06/04/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
06/03/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
06/02/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
06/01/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

Totals 9-*3-*0 75.00% +2850


Thursday, June 7

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 8:30 PM ET Boston +1.5 500

Boston - Under 179 500