The Bum's NBA Championship Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

WNBA
Dunkel

San Antonio at Atlanta
The Dream look to bounce back from their 79-74 loss to New York and build on their 7-3 ATS record in their last 10 games following an ATS defeat. Atlanta is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Dream favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-3 1/2). Here are all of today's picks

FRIDAY, JUNE 8

Game 601-602: Connecticut at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 113.105; Indiana 121.286
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 8; 157
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 6; 161 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-6); Under

Game 603-604: New York at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 110.532; Washington 107.674
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 3; 147
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 2 1/2; 143
Dunkel Pick: New York (+2 1/2); Over

Game 605-606: San Antonio at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 110.453; Atlanta 115.919
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 5 1/2; 156
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 3 1/2; 161
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-3 1/2); Under

Game 607-608: Tulsa at Chicago (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 100.226; Chicago 110.684
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 10 1/2; 148
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 12 1/2; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+12); Over

Game 609-610: Phoenix at Los Angeles (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 104.716; Los Angeles 113.809
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 9; 171
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 11; 167 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+11); Over




WNBA
Long Sheet

Friday, June 8

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CONNECTICUT (4 - 1) at INDIANA (4 - 1) - 6/8/2012, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) after allowing 75 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games on Friday since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 5-3 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 5-4 straight up against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW YORK (2 - 5) at WASHINGTON (1 - 4) - 6/8/2012, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 214-263 ATS (-75.3 Units) in all games since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 26-44 ATS (-22.4 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 36-58 ATS (-27.8 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 133-172 ATS (-56.2 Units) vs. division opponents since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 132-168 ATS (-52.8 Units) after a division game since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 6-3 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 5-4 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (2 - 3) at ATLANTA (2 - 4) - 6/8/2012, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in a road game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in June games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games in May, June, or July games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in June games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 2-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 2-2 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TULSA (0 - 6) at CHICAGO (4 - 1) - 6/8/2012, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULSA is 17-31 ATS (-17.1 Units) in May, June, or July games over the last 3 seasons.
TULSA is 21-35 ATS (-17.5 Units) after allowing 75 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus TULSA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 3-1 straight up against TULSA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHOENIX (2 - 4) at LOS ANGELES (5 - 1) - 6/8/2012, 11:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 12-29 ATS (-19.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 29-44 ATS (-19.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 25-45 ATS (-24.5 Units) in a home game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 since 1997.
LOS ANGELES is 15-32 ATS (-20.2 Units) after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 5-5 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 6-4 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WNBA

Friday, June 8

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
CONNECTICUT vs. INDIANA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Connecticut's last 7 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Connecticut is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indiana
Indiana is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Indiana is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Connecticut

7:00 PM
NEW YORK vs. WASHINGTON
New York is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
New York is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Washington is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games

7:30 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. ATLANTA
San Antonio is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
San Antonio is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
Atlanta is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games at home

8:30 PM
TULSA vs. CHICAGO
Tulsa is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tulsa's last 9 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Chicago's last 9 games at home
Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

11:00 PM
PHOENIX vs. LOS ANGELES
Phoenix is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Los Angeles's last 12 games
Los Angeles is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games

[StarDust Bum]

Miami Heat And Boston Celtics Collide In Game 7

There's only one game to talk about in the NBA playoffs this weekend, and it's a big one with the Eastern Conference Finals moving back to South Beach for Game 7 between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics.

The Heat are solid 8-point home-court favorites for the decisive battle, and the Don Best odds screen has the total sitting at 178. ESPN will have the tip from AmericanAirlines Arena at 8:30 p.m. (ET) on Saturday.

Miami dismantled the Celtics in Boston on Thursday with a 98-79 Game 6 victory to knot the series at three wins apiece. In their preview of that game earlier this week, Don Best Sports analysts Pat Williams and Monte Scates each thought the wrong team was favored with the Heat closing as 2-point chalk. But Miami proved the oddsmakers right and then some by jumping to a 10-point advantage in the first quarter and never looking back.

LeBron James also proved why he is generally regarded as the best player in the NBA with a huge 45-point effort along with 15 boards to lead the Heat in the rout. Dwyane Wade (17 points) was the only other Miami player to score more than nine points while Rajon Rondo paced a quartet of Celtics in double-digits with 21 points.

Miami's triumph and cover snapped a 4-game run against the spread for Boston, while the final tally fell three points shy of the 180-point total to break four straight 'overs' in the series.

The Celtics simply had no answer for LeBron on Thursday, trying different defensive matchups and double teams to no avail. Boston lost the battle on the boards by 10 and managed to sink just one of 14 attempts from beyond the 3-point line.

Williams believes the key for the Celtics to pull off an upset in Game 7 will be evening up the rebounding while getting more production from veteran Paul Pierce.

"If Paul Pierce can't step up and be the truth and play like the captain," Williams said, "the Celtics are done in this series."

Pierce connected on just 4-of-18 from the field in Game 6 and missed all six of his long-range shots.

Beating the Heat two times in a row on their home floor will not be easy for Boston, to state the obvious. Miami is a perfect 6-0 at home following a setback at AmericanAirlines Arena, and covered five of the six spreads with the average margin of victory a whopping 20.7 points.

Williams believes the play in Game 7 is on the 'over,' feeling confident enough that the Celtics won't have another horrible night shooting the rock.

[StarDust Bum]

Celtics, Heat square off in Game 7 Saturday

NBA PLAYOFF GAME PREVIEW

No. 4 BOSTON CELTICS

at No. 2 MIAMI HEAT


Eastern Conference Finals
Game 7 – Series tied 3-3
Tip-off: Saturday, 8:35 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -7½, Total: 178½

LeBron James made sure his season wouldn’t end on Thursday night in Boston, and now he’ll try to lead Miami to a Game 7 win on Saturday night to get back to the NBA Finals.

James had an incredible 45 points on 19-for-26 FG (73%), and added 15 rebounds and five assists in the Heat’s 98-79 pounding of the Celtics. He now has 34.0 PPG (54% FG) and 10.8 RPG in the East Finals. Boston once again struggled to make shots, hitting just 42.7% FG and 1-of-14 threes. SF Paul Pierce was an atrocious 4-for-18 from the floor, missing all six of his long-range tries. PF Chris Bosh didn’t assert himself very much on offense in his second game back from injury (7 points on 3-of-8 FG), but he still made his presence felt by posting a +16 rating with six rebounds and three blocks in his 28 minutes of action. Now the series concludes in Miami, where the past two games have been extremely close. After the Heat won Game 2 by a 115-111 score in overtime, the C’s got their revenge with a 94-90 victory in Game 5 at AmericanAirlines Arena. Can Miami win this series and cover the hefty spread? For the answer, connect to NBA Playoffs Best Bets for all the Expert picks for every playoff game during the 2012 postseason. Since May 18, ******* Dave is on a 16-7-1 ATS (70%) run, including 7-1-1 in his Best Bets.

Miami is 35-6 (23-18-1 ATS) at home this season, outscoring these opponents by an average of 11.1 PPG (100.1 to 89.0 PPG). Boston is a woeful 18-24 SU (21-21 ATS) on the road this season, having lost its previous four away games by an average of 8.5 PPG before prevailing in Game 5. However, the Celtics are a solid 20-14 (18-16 ATS) after an SU loss this season, and they have also been sharp with just one day’s rest at 31-20 (30-21 ATS). The Heat have avoided major letdowns after an SU victory (40-16 SU, 27-29 ATS), and have been strong with just one day of rest at 32-16 (22-26 ATS). The Celtics controlled the points in the paint (42-32) in Game 6, but managed just seven offensive boards on their 43 missed shots and were outrebounded 44-34. Neither team shared the ball very well on offense on Thursday, with Miami dishing out just 15 assists on 37 field goals and Boston tallying a mere 14 helpers on 32 made shots. For the series, neither offense has been great. The Heat are averaging 96.3 PPG on 45.5% FG (31% threes), while the Celtics have just 95.6 PPG on 43.8% FG (29% threes).

PG Rajon Rondo has had a great offensive series with 20.7 PPG (50% FG), 10.8 APG and 6.3 RPG, but he posted a dreadful minus-25 rating in Game 6, committing a series-high seven turnovers. The last time he played in Miami in Game 5, he shot just 3-for-15 from the field. PF Kevin Garnett also had a subpar performance on Thursday, amassing just 12 points (6-of-14 FG), five rebounds, zero assists and a minus-16 rating. He did not attempt a single free throw and was pretty useless against Bosh down low. But the biggest reason for Boston’s lack of scoring in Game 5 was Pierce missing 14 of his 18 shot attempts. He has had little success scoring at AmericanAirlines Arena in this series, connecting on a mere 33.9% FG (19-of-56). SG Ray Allen has been off the mark in this series (36.2% FG), which includes a horrible 8-for-27 FG clip (29.6%) in Miami. Starting PF Brandon Bass scored 12 points (5-of-8 FG) with seven rebounds in Game 6, giving him solid averages of 11.0 PPG (50% FG) and 6.0 RPG in the past three contests.

James has actually been better offensively on the road during the 2012 playoffs (32.1 PPG on 53% FG), but his home playoff numbers aren’t too shabby (29.6 PPG on 50% FG). In three home games this series, he has torched the Celtics for 32.0 PPG and 12.0 RPG. But after making 18-of-24 free throws in Game 2, James is a dreadful 16-for-30 from the foul line (53%) during the past four contests. Although Wade wasn’t great offensively in Boston during East Finals (18.3 PPG on 37% FG), he has thrived on home cooking with 24.0 PPG on 52% FG in the three games held in Miami. PF Udonis Haslem has not been a consistent scorer this series with 0, 13, 3, 12, 3 and 6 points, but he continues to pound the glass on a regular basis with 11.4 RPG in his past five contests. PG Mario Chalmers hasn’t had a great series shooting the basketball (43.5% FG, 30.8% threes), but he had a well-rounded Game 6 with nine points (3-of-4 threes), two steals, zero turnovers and a +9 rating, his first positive rating since Game 1. SF Shane Battier also posted his series-best rating of +17 on Thursday, finishing with eight points and two steals.

[StarDust Bum]

Celtics, Heat set for Game 7 to decide East

June 8, 2012


MIAMI (AP) - LeBron James has no idea what he will do for an encore.

He offered a simple vow instead.

``I won't regret Game 7,'' James said.

There may not have been another sentiment the Miami Heat would have preferred hearing more as they prepare to host the Boston Celtics Saturday night.

James is coming off a season-saving 45-point, 15-rebound, five-assist effort to force Game 7. The winner will head to Oklahoma City to start the NBA finals on Tuesday night and the loser heads into an offseason of decided uncertainty.

``Win, lose or draw, I'm going to go in with the mindset like I've had this whole season,'' James said. ``And you know, we'll see what happens.''

A series that has gone back and forth - Miami won the first two games, then lost three straight before James carried the Heat to a win that denied Boston the East crown on Thursday night - comes down to an ultimate game.

For the Heat, it's a chance to play for the ring they couldn't win last year in the opening act of the Big Three era. For the Celtics, it's probably one last chance for their current core to reach the NBA's mountaintop.

``This team has been about adversity all year long, you know, so this is not going to be nothing new,'' Celtics forward Paul Pierce said. ``It's been tough for us all year long to get to the point where we would be at, and why wouldn't it be tough now? Winning is hard. Trying to get to the finals is hard. And this is as hard as it gets. And I think we are prepared for it.''

It's the 111th time a best-of-seven NBA series has gone the distance. Home teams are 88-22 in the previous matchups.

That means little to Heat coach Erik Spoelstra. The last time Boston was on his team's court, the Celtics sputtered offensively and still managed to leave with a win, taking Game 5 to put Miami on the brink.

The Heat are still there. Only this time, so are the Celtics.

``Both teams will come out with an appropriate level of urgency,'' Spoelstra said. ``And that's the beauty of a Game 7. We fought and earned the right to have this on our home court. We don't take that for granted and we don't assume that that will take care of anything. We're going to have to play, compete at the same urgency level we played last night. And we'll also have to play well and probably have to beat them when they're at their best.''

If James has the same game he had Thursday, the Celtics will have to beat him at his best.

The reigning MVP put on a show in Game 6. The expression on James' face barely changed all night - after makes, after misses, even after a drink got dumped on him while leaving the court not long after the final buzzer of Miami's 98-79 win. He made 19 of 26 shots, that 73 percent success rate the best he ever posted in a playoff game. His 30 first-half points matched an NBA season high. His 45 points were second-most in Heat playoff history.

``Sometimes superstars get hot,'' Pierce said.

``He's been playing unbelievable,'' Heat guard Dwyane Wade said.

``One of the best this league has ever seen,'' Heat forward Chris Bosh said.

Of course, if the Heat lose on Saturday, that performance will soon be forgotten.

For the Celtics, this will be their seventh Game 7 in the last five years - they're 4-2 in the previous ones, including a home win over Philadelphia one round ago. James is averaging 34 points per game in the series, the Celtics are getting both outshot and outrebounded, their best shooter in Ray Allen has been slowed by ankle pain and Pierce is shooting 34 percent.

Here they are, one win from the finals anyway, even after all that and getting written off plenty of times during the regular season.

``Nothing's been easy up until this point. You know, can't expect it now,'' Celtics forward Kevin Garnett said. ``It is what it is. We're going to take these cards and play them. Lot of confident guys in here, lot of guys who've been through Game 7's, lot of experienced guys. We're going to lean on that. And we're going to fight. A bunch of fighters in this locker room.''

Rajon Rondo, who has either made or set up more than half of Boston's baskets in the series, had similar sentiments.

``It's going to be a battle,'' Boston's point guard said.

Celtics coach Doc Rivers told his team to pack for a weeklong trip starting Friday. If they win, they'll go straight from Miami to Oklahoma City.

``We have another opportunity,'' Rivers said in Boston on Thursday night. ``We get to play another game, Game 7. I would say most of the people in this room would have said, `Wow, they're going to get to Game 7, we'll take it.' That's the way we have to view it. We won a game at theirs, they won here. Now we get to play for all the marbles.''

Both sides are tired, beaten up, bruised.

Bosh is working his way back into Miami's rotation after missing nine games with a strained lower abdominal muscle. Pierce has a sprained knee ligament that he's been playing on for much of these playoffs. Wade has been coping with knee pain. Rondo's troublesome elbow may be acting up again. The Celtics are dealing with age. The Heat are dealing with pressure.

None of that will matter on Saturday night.

``It's going to be a tough one,'' Wade said. ``It's going to be a tough one, Game 7. We look forward to it. I'm sure Boston will look forward to it as well. This is what NBA basketball is about.''

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Playoffs - Game 7 Facts

June 8, 2012

Game 7 Quick Facts

The NBA has had 110 Game 7’s in playoff history

The home team is 88-22 (80%) in those games

Eight of the last 10 Game 7 outcomes have been decided by double digits

Five of the last six road winners in Game 7 were from the Western Conference


Game 7 Notes - Boston vs. Miami


Boston has played in the most Game 7's, going 21-7 in the decisive game

The Celtics won their last Game 7 battle, most recently an 85-75 victory at home over Philadelphia in the 2012 Conference Seminfinals

Miami has gone 2-3 in Game 7's

The Heat's last Game 7 came in the 2009 Conference Quarterfinals at Atlanta, which they lost, 91-78

All-Time Game Seven Road Winners

Year Road Team Home Team Round

2012 L.A. Clippers 82 Memphis 72 First round
2008 Orlando 101 Boston 82 Conference semifinals
2007 San Antonio 91 New Orleans 82 Conference semifinals
2007 Utah 103 Houston 99 First round
2006 *Dallas 119 San Antonio 111 Conference semifinals
2005 Detroit 88 Miami 82 Conference finals
2005 Indiana 97 Boston 70 First round
2002 *L.A. Lakers 112 Sacramento 106 Conference finals
2000 New York 83 Miami 82 Conference semifinals
1995 Indiana 97 New York 95 Conference semifinals
1995 Houston 115 Phoenix 114 Conference semifinals
1982 Philadelphia 120 Boston 106 Conference finals
1981 Kansas City 95 Phoenix 88 Conference semifinals
1981 Houston 105 San Antonio 100 Conference semifinals
1978 Washington 105 Seattle 99 NBA Finals
1976 Phoenix 94 Golden State 86 Conference finals
1974 Boston 102 Milwaukee 87 NBA Finals
1973 New York 94 Boston 78 Conference finals
1971 Baltimore 93 New York 91 Conference finals
1969 Boston 108 L.A. Lakers 106 NBA Finals
1968 Boston 100 Philadelphia 96 Division finals
1948 Philadelphia 85 St Louis 46 Semifinals
(*) Asterisk denotes overtime

[StarDust Bum]

Game 7, Heat vs. Celtics

June 8, 2012


Who you got?

That question will be asked early and often on Saturday when Miami and Boston meet in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals. According to the oddsmakers, they believe the Heat will advance to the NBA Finals, opening the home squad as an eight-point favorite over Boston. The number has dropped to 7 1/2 at a handful of offshore sports books, which is a little surprising considering the Celtics’ effort in Game 6 on Thursday.

Miami opened up a double-digit lead (26-16) after the first quarter and never looked back. The Heat cruised to a 98-79 victory, easily covering the first-half, second-half and game numbers. LeBron James had another monster effort, finishing with 45 points, 15 rebounds and five assists. He scored 30 points in the first half and lived up to his MVP billing. Bettors playing his point-total proposition in this series, which hovers around 31 points, have been able to cash in five of the six games. The one time it didn’t connect was in Game 4 at Boston when he fouled out with 29 points.

VegasInsider.com expert Kevin Rogers has had a tough time getting a pulse on this series. Rogers said, “This series has been very interesting from the standpoint that once you think you have everything figured out, it goes in a different direction. James absolutely took over in the Game 6 blowout, but will he repeat that performance in Game 7? Also, Boston shot poor from the field and Pierce picked up three quick fouls. Does that happen again?”

While James was brilliant on Thursday, Pierce was awful and truth be told, he’s had a less than stellar series but will get a pass by most because of the big 3-pointer he hit in Boston’s victory (94-90) in Game 5 at Miami. Pierce isn’t the only one to blame for the blowout loss in Game 6. The entire team shot 43 percent from the field, including 1-of-11 from the 3-point land. Miami shot 49 percent from the floor and connected on 7-of-16 (44%) bombs from downtown, plus they only missed five free throws (17-of-22) in the road win.

Those following and more importantly, those betting the NBA should have a good grip on how well the home team has performed in Game 7. The home squad has gone 88-22 (80%) in the 110 Game 7’s played in the NBA playoffs. That’s a straight-up number and if you believe Miami can keep the trend rolling, then a money-line price of minus-450 (Bet $450 to win $100) is available. Those believing Boston can steal a Game 7 can receive a generous takeback close to plus-375 (Bet $100 to win $375).

The odds are stacked against Boston here but since the franchise assembled “The Big Three” of Pierce, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett, the trio has led the team to a 4-2 record in decisive Game 7’s and injuries played a toll in the two losses. KG missed the 2009 conference semifinals Game 7 against Orlando (82-101) at home, and many Boston fans believe the Celtics would’ve beaten the Lakers (79-83) in Game 7 of the 2010 NBA Finals if Kendrick Perkins didn’t blow his knee out.

Experience definitely sides with Boston in this scenario and we should point out that Miami’s “Big Three” of James (0-2), Dwyane Wade (1-2) and Chris Bosh are a combined 1-4 in Game 7’s. Saturday will be the first Game 7 in Bosh’s career and the first Game 7 for Miami with the talented trio.

Rogers delved more into the outcomes of the recent Game 7 finales in this round. “Looking from a historical standpoint, this is the ninth Game 7 in the conference finals since 1994. In the previous eight contests, six games were decided by six points or less, including Miami's 88-82 home loss to Detroit in 2005.”

“However, home teams in Game 7 that needed to win Game 6 on the road to stay alive own a 5-3 record since 2003. This situation came up once in this year’s postseason as the Grizzlies won Game 6 from Staples Center against the Los Angeles Clippers down 3-2, but failed to pick up the home victory in Game 7 of their first-round battle.”

Along with the Clippers-Grizzlies encounter, there were two other Game 7’s played in this year’s playoffs. The Lakers beat the Nuggets at home in the first round, while the Celtics stopped the 76ers from TD Garden in the conference semifinals.

Miami has gone 7-2 at American Airlines Arena in the postseason and the two losses came by a combined seven points. While those numbers are impressive, the margins of victory for the Heat during the playoffs have been eye opening. In its 11 postseason wins, 10 have come by eight points or more with the smallest outcome coming in Game 2 of this series (115-111) at home.

Boston is just 3-6 on the road in the playoffs but they have produced a 5-4 record against the spread, including a 2-1 ledger versus the Heat.

After watching the ‘over’ cash in four straight games of this series, total players watched the ‘under’ cash in Game 6. The two teams put up 97 points in the first half, which helped the ‘over’ cash again for half-time players, but only 80 points were posted in the last 24 minutes.

The total on Game 7 opened at 179 ½ and is currently hovering between 178 and 179 at most betting shops. Even though the ‘over’ has prevailed to a 4-2 mark, the pace hasn’t been fast and that record could be 3-3 or 4-2 to the ‘under.’

It’s understood that you handicap games based on matchups, odds, current form, etc…However, trends and tendencies are shall we say, good to know. With that being said, the three Game 7’s that were played in this year’s playoffs all went ‘under’ the number, rather easily too. And if you look at the past 10 Game 7’s, the ‘under’ is 8-2 and those who have good memories know that last year’s lone Game 7 in the playoffs between Oklahoma City and Memphis should’ve stayed ‘under’ the number too. Thanks Greivis Vasquez!

Tip-off for tonight’s Game 7 is set for 8:30 p.m. ET, with ESPN providing national coverage. In case you’re thinking ahead, the winner of this matchup will head to Oklahoma City on Tuesday for Game 1 of the NBA Finals. The Thunder went 3-1 both SU and ATS against the Celtics (2-0) and Heat (1-1) during the regular season and the ‘under’ cashed in three of the four meetings.

We spoke to Jay Kornegay, vice president of race and sports operations at the Las Vegas Hotel & Casino (LVH) and got potential numbers on the Thunder vs. Boston or Miami for the finals.

Series Prices:
Oklahoma City -280
Boston +240

Oklahoma City -125
Miami +105

Game 1 Side & Total
Oklahoma City -7
Boston 194

Oklahoma City -3
Miami 197

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Saturday, June 9

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston - 8:30 PM ET Miami -8 500

Miami - Over 178 500

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WNBA

Saturday, June 9

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Seattle - 8:00 PM ET San Antonio -4.5 500

San Antonio - Under 142 500

Minnesota - 8:00 PM ET Tulsa +13.5 500

Tulsa - Over 154.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

06/09/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
06/07/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
06/06/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
06/05/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
06/04/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
06/03/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
06/02/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
06/01/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

Totals 12-*4-*0 75.00% +3800

NBA

Tuesday, June 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 9:00 PM ET Oklahoma City -5 500

Oklahoma City - Over 195 500

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday, June 13

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Los Angeles - 8:00 PM ET Connecticut -7.5 500
Connecticut - Over 166 500

Seattle - 8:00 PM ET Chicago -8 500
Chicago - Under 139 500

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

06/12/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
06/09/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
06/07/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
06/06/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
06/05/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
06/04/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
06/03/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
06/02/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
06/01/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

Totals 14-*4-*0 77.78% +4800

Thursday, June 14

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 9:00 PM ET Oklahoma City -5.5 500

Oklahoma City - Under 196 500

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Miami at Oklahoma City
The Thunder look to follow up their 105-94 win in Game 1 and build on their 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 games after scoring 100 points or more in the previous game. Oklahoma City is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Thunder favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-5 1/2). Here are all of today's picks

THURSDAY, JUNE 14

Game 503-504: Miami at Oklahoma City (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 126.520; Oklahoma City 134.023
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 7 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 5 1/2; 196
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-5 1/2); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, June 14

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MIAMI (58 - 27) at OKLAHOMA CITY (60 - 22) - 6/14/2012, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 46-35 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 39-31 ATS (+4.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, June 14

Miami @ Oklahoma City (1-0)-- Thunder bench was +17 in 71:00 on floor in game 1; Collison had 10 boards in 21:00, five on offensive end, as Miami's bench was -19 in only 46:00 on floor. Collison was +13 in his 21:00. Home side won all three series meetings this year, with Heat losing by 16-11 in two visits here. Old hand Derek Fisher has won five rings; he had a steadying hand when Miami was up double digits in first half. Oklahoma City is 9-0 at home in playoffs (6-3 vs spread); to me, the key for them is Westbrook being a facilitator and making sure Durant has the ball in key spots. Miami will give a better effort here, its natural after losing Game 1, but Oklahoma City has more good players, it could be as simple as that. Six of last seven Miami games went over the total.




NBA

Thursday, June 14

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Trend Report
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9:00 PM
MIAMI vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Miami's last 10 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Oklahoma City's last 10 games when playing at home against Miami


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NBA

Thursday, June 14

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Heat at Thunder Game 2: What bettors need to know
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Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder (-5.5, 196)

THE STORY: The Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder gave fans exactly what they were expecting in the opener of the NBA Finals: an action-packed, end-to-end game featuring sensational plays at both ends. Kevin Durant emerged as the hero in Game 1 and will look to lead the Thunder to victory in the second game of the best-of-seven Thursday night. Durant poured in 17 of his game-high 36 points in the fourth quarter as the Thunder rallied from 13 points down to secure the victory.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ABC, TSN

ABOUT THE HEAT: LeBron James didn't have the kind of game that lifted Miami to victories over Boston in Games 6 and 7 of the East finals, but he was still solid in defeat. James reached the 30-point plateau in a Finals contest for the first time in his career, but it wasn't enough as he fell to 2-9 all-time in championship games. The Heat were badly outscored in transition and had no answer for Durant, who knocked down one shot after another in the pivotal final frame. James credited Oklahoma City with playing near-perfect basketball over the final 12 minutes. "They didn't make many mistakes in the fourth quarter," he said.

ABOUT THE THUNDER: Oklahoma City looked nervous in the early going, but didn't take long to shake off the jitters. Durant became the fourth-youngest player in NBA history to surpass the 35-point plateau in a Finals game, knocking down four 3-pointers and adding eight rebounds. He had plenty of help - particularly from point guard Russell Westbrook, who scored 27 points and added 11 assists and eight rebounds. The two of them outscored the Heat 41-40 in the second half. Thabo Sefolosha excelled on the defensive end, limiting James to seven points on 29 percent shooting when he was guarding him.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Westbrook became the first player to record 25 points, 10 assists and eight rebounds in a Finals game since Charles Barkley accomplished the feat for the Phoenix Suns in 1993.

2. Going into this season, the team that wins the opening game of the Finals has gone on to claim the NBA championship 72 percent of the time.

3. Oklahoma City is 9-0 at home in the postseason.

TRENDS:

Heat are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Heat are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.

Thunder are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.

Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Over is 6-1 in Heat last 7 overall.

Over is 11-2 in Thunder last 13 games as a favorite.

PREDICTION: Thunder 102, Heat 98.

[StarDust Bum]

Thunder Host Miami Heat For Game 2

There isn't much change in the spread or total from Game 1 to Game 2 as the NBA Finals resume Thursday night in Oklahoma City. The Thunder are 5-point favorites to take a two-nothing lead over the Miami Heat with the total opening at 196.

The Don Best Odds closed with Ok City -5 and 196 for the total in Tuesday's series opener that saw the Thunder shake off a slow start to take a 105-94 victory. Kevin Durant topped the ledger with 36 points, six better than LeBron James' 30 to lead the Heat.

Miami's loss did sweeten the return on a Heat championship to +235 for anyone who still likes LeBron & Co. in this series. That price is exactly where they were in early December as the favorites to win it all when the strike ended. Jumping on the Oklahoma City bandwagon at this point will cost you -280.

The Heat had the early lead in Game 1 before falling off in the second half, something Don Best Sports analyst Monte Scates said might have been the result of going the distance in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Boston Celtics.

"Miami did have control of the game for the better part of three quarters, lost it at the end of the third and were unable to take over in the fourth quarter," Scates noted. "Perhaps it was because they were a little bit tired after that seven game series."

Don Best's Pat Williams pointed to the fast-break scoring as the biggest difference in the outcome of Game 1, with the Thunder having a 24-4 advantage in that facet of the contest. Scates believes Oklahoma City might be the only team in the league that can top Miami's fast-break.

"I don't think I've ever seen a game in which Miami only had four points in transition," Scates said. "One thing (Miami) can do to slow (the Thunder) down is stop shooting so many jump shots. Long jump shots provide long rebounds which provide fast-break points."

The Heat converted on their early long jump shots, sinking 5-of-6 from 3-point land to take a 7-point lead after the first stanza. But Miami could only find the net three times in the last 13 attempts from beyond the arc.

While Durant's 36 paced the Thunder, two more key contributors in the victory were Russell Westbrook and Nick Collison. Westbrook finished two boards shy of a triple-double with 27 points and 11 assists. Collison played 21 minutes off the bench and grabbed 10 rebounds (5 offensive) to go with his eight points.

Dwyane Wade did score 19 for the Heat, but on just 7-of-19 shooting. He was also no match on defense for the quicker Westbrook.

Oklahoma City remains a perfect 9-0 at home during the playoffs following Tuesday's triumph, and Game 1 continued the streak of 'overs' at Chesapeake Energy Arena to four. The Thunder failed to cover their first two home games vs. Dallas in the opening round of the postseason, but have since cashed six of the last seven at home.

Miami has now lost four of its last six straight up, and covered just two of the last seven playoff tilts.

ABC will broadcast Game 2 that tips a little after 9:00 p.m. (ET) on Thursday. The teams will take two days off before Game 3 in Miami on Sunday.

[StarDust Bum]

Game 2, Heat-Thunder

June 13, 2012

The Thunder needed a massive rally to clinch the Western Conference championship over the Spurs, as Oklahoma City nearly repeated that effort in its Game 1 victory in the NBA Finals over Miami. After the Heat built a 13-point advantage halfway through the second quarter, the Thunder slowly crept back before pulling away for a 105-94 triumph to cover as five-point favorites. OKC leaned on its two young guns to take home the first franchise win in the NBA Finals since 1996.

Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combined for 63 points, while scoring 23 points in the fourth quarter to complete the comeback. The Heat led 54-43 with a minute remaining in the first half before the Thunder pulled off a mini 4-0 run to cut the halftime deficit to 54-47. Miami cashed as three-point underdogs in the first half, while the 'over' of 97 ½ hit. LeBron James put together his most productive quarter in the second with 15 points, but finished with 30 points on 11-of-24 shooting from the floor.

Oklahoma City easily covered as six-point favorites in the second half by outscoring Miami, 58-40 in the final 24 minutes. The legs fell apart for Erik Spoelstra's team, playing their eighth game since Memorial Day, as Miami shot 3-for-16 from three-point range after drilling five of its first six attempts from downtown. Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh each struggled from the floor by making 11 of 30 shots for 30 points, even though Shane Battier picked up the slack with an impressive 17-point effort.

The Thunder won their ninth playoff game in nine tries at Chesapeake Energy Arena, as OKC improved to 6-3 ATS at home this postseason. Even though the third member of Oklahoma City's young trio, James Harden, scored just five points, Nick Collison put together a strong game off the bench by tallying eight points and pulling down 10 boards. The 'over' has hit in four consecutive contests for the Thunder, as Scott Brooks' club has eclipsed the 100-point mark in eight of the last nine games.

Obviously the biggest question is whether or not the Heat can bounce back in Game 2. Recent history says there's not a good chance at that, even though Miami was on the wrong side of a 95-93 loss to Dallas last June, as the Mavericks rebounded from a series opening loss. Over the last eight Finals, teams that lose the opener are just 3-5 SU and 3-4-1 ATS in Game 2's, while the 'over' is a strong 5-2-1 in this span.

Listed in bold below are the teams that lost the NBA Finals openers and how they fared in Game 2.

Game 2 of the NBA Finals (2004-2011)
Year Matchup Total
2011 Dallas (+4.5) 95 @ Miami 93 PUSH 188
2010 Boston (+6) 103 @ L.A. Lakers 94 OVER 192.5
2009 L.A. Lakers 101 vs. Orlando (+6.5) 96 UNDER 202
2008 Boston 108 vs. L.A. Lakers (-1.5) 102 OVER 191.5
2007 San Antonio 103 vs. Cleveland (+7) 92 OVER 175.5
2006 Dallas 99 vs. Miami (+4.5) 85 UNDER 189
2005 San Antonio 97 vs. Detroit (+4.5) 76 OVER 171.5
2004 L.A. Lakers (-8) 99 vs. Detroit 91 OVER 171



The Thunder improved to 3-7 ATS the last 10 home games off a home victory in Game 1, while winning all four times in this situation in the playoffs. Miami has put together a poor 3-8 SU/ATS record since March on the road off a loss, while going 0-3 SU/ATS as an away underdog overall.

VegasInsider.com's Chris David says it's easy to follow the favorite train right now, "This year's postseason has allowed gamblers to ride some waves to the cashier. San Antonio's 20-game winning streak was incredible for bettors. Also, you know the books weren't happy that the favorites were incredible in the second round (17-5 SU, 15-7 ATS) against the number. Those runs were solid, but the last hot streak of the playoffs might be the best yet and it's quietly putting the old adage that 'Defenses win Championships' to rest."

The Thunder are putting up consistent offensive numbers, as David points out that the Thunder and 'over' is the way to go, "In this year's playoffs, Oklahoma City has watched the 'over' go 12-4 (75%) and that includes a lucky ticket in Game 1. The Heat and Thunder had a nice pace at the half with a combined 101 points but the game slowed down as the margin got close. Despite the half-court play, 'over' bettors caught 21 late points in the final three minutes and celebrated - again."

"The total for Game 2 is hovering between 195 and 196 points. Based on OKC's red-hot offense, you either pass on the rest of this series or play OKC and the 'over.' The Thunder has put up triple-digits in 11 of their 16 playoff games and the worst effort came in a 77-point performance against the Lakers in Game 2 of their second round series. I mention that affair because that's the only time gamblers would've lost both ends of the OKC-OVER combination."

David mentions the fact that there was money to be made on the Western Conference champions throughout this postseason, "If you've blindly bet Oklahoma City and the 'over' in all 16 of its playoff games for one-unit ($100), you would be sitting on a profit of $1,420. I like to believe that all things balance out in the long run but going against this current streak would take a serious argument."

The series price on the Thunder rose to -280 (Bet $280 to win $100) after their Game 1 win, while the Heat sits at +260 (Bet $100 to win $260). Basically, OKC has split the next six games to win this bet, with three of those contests at home where they are unbeaten in the playoffs.

The Thunder is listed as a slightly higher favorite in Game 2 by laying 5 ½ points after opening up as five-point 'chalk.' The game tips off at 9:00 PM EST on Thursday and can be seen nationally on ABC.

[StarDust Bum]

Heat-Thunder Outlook

June 12, 2012

No. 2 Oklahoma City vs. No. 2 Miami

Series Price: Oklahoma City -165 Miami +145

Series Format: Oklahoma City 2-3-2

Game 1 - Tuesday, June 12
Game 2 - Thursday, June 14
Game 3 - Sunday, June 17
Game 4 - Tuesday, June 19
Game 5* - Thursday, June 21
Game 6* - Sunday, June 24
Game 7* - Tuesday, June 26

* If Necessary

HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS
TEAM SU ATS HOME AWAY OVER/UNDER PPG DPPG
59-22 45-35 34-7 25-15 42-39 103.1 96.9
58-26 43-41 36-7 22-19 35-47 98.5 92.5


2012 Head to Head Meetings
Date Results Total
3/25/12 Oklahoma City (-2) 103 vs. Miami 87 UNDER 201.5
4/4/12 Miami (-3) 98 vs. Oklahoma City 93 UNDER 198.5


Skinny: The Oklahoma City Thunder got to sit back and enjoy the 111th Game 7 in NBA history on Saturday night. As for the victorious Miami Heat, they cleared a hurdle of a 3-2 deficit to the Boston Celtics, overcoming an early fourth-quarter deficit so emphatically that it actually may have helped their confidence to have overcome flirting with disaster.

The NBA Finals the league most wanted to see has come to fruition, riding in the hype created by epic performances from LeBron James and Chris Bosh, superstars ridiculed for having to join forces with Dwyane Wade. Their effort in avoiding elimination has the feel of a graduation.

Kevin Durant, three-time scoring champ, had his own legendary coming of age in helping dispatch San Antonio. He averaged 29.5 points per game and went for 34 points and 14 rebounds while playing all 48 minutes in the clincher, wrapping up four straight conquests of a top seed that had won 20 straight.

Defeating the Spurs appears to have been the more impressive feat. Oddsmakers have established the Thunder as -160 favorites to capture their first NBA title.

Because of the household names involved, it's intriguing that James, Wade and Bosh would ever be underdogs. They scored the final 31 Heat points in Game 7 and came together exactly as Pat Riley envisioned when he put this all together. Don't scramble your brain trying to remember when it happened last. Since coming together, they've been favored in every playoff series they've participated in, including the 2011 Finals against Dallas.

The Thunder have earned respect by amassing a 12-3 mark against the defending champion Mavericks, a Lakers team that won the two years prior and finally, the seemingly invincible Spurs.

Durant has had moments in these playoffs that have rightfully merited Michael Jordan comparisons, fitting since the three-time scoring champ faces off against the regular season MVP in a Finals for the first time since 1997 when the Bulls battled Karl Malone's Jazz. For many, their individual due is what this series will be about. James, having pulled off a historic 45-15-5 night followed by 31 and 12 with Miami facing elimination, is quieting even his loudest critics with his recent play. No one will be able to speak ill about him going forward if he denies Durant.

They'll defend each other in key situations and decide games. Both are chasing that elusive first ring, and ironically trained together in Akron during the summer lockout period for a four-day period James described as a "hell week." They're friends, but intense competitors who had this in mind all along. "I envisioned it every day we worked out," James said. "I understood what his passion was. I understood what his drive was. We pushed each other every single day."

In the two regular season meetings this year, they both scored roughly 27 points and shot the ball well, but the intensity gets ramped up well past "hell week" starting Tuesday. James owns a 7-2 edge on Durant in all-time meetings, splitting thus far in 2012.

The second All-NBA showdown in the equation features guard catalysts who will have to pick their spots but are equally capable of taking over this series.

All-Star point guard Russell Westbrook often doubles as the team's biggest question mark, but has been a willing passer when it matters most, allowing Durant to flourish. Still, his biggest contributions against the Spurs came on the defensive end against Parker and Ginobili. His shooting numbers in the four wins were poor (25-for-66, 37.9%), and also featured 16 turnovers. He'd cleaned up that part of his game, turning it over 18 times in the first 11 games of the postseason, so that will again be a point of emphasis early in the series.

Keep in mind that Westbrook hasn't had much success in the four games against the Heat in their current form. He's shot just 25-for-80 with 5.8 assists and 4.0 turnovers against their athletes and pressure.

Wade will be Miami's main variable, as he appears to be dealing with a knee issue that's contributed to slow starts. Between Westbrook, Thabo Sefolosha and James Harden, the Thunder are going to make sure he'll have to work at both ends. After that 2-for-13 meltdown in that memorable Game 3 loss at Indiana that saw him bicker with coach Erik Spoelstra, Wade is averaging 24.9 points and shooting over 50 percent (96-for-191). It helped that he had his knee drained before Game 4, so look for him to have some juice after multiple days between games for the first time since the Eastern Conference finals began.

Bosh's return gives the Heat an opportunity to pull Serge Ibaka away from the basket, especially if he continues to shoot the ball well. His three 3-pointers and 8-for-10 shooting in Game 7 was a difference in helping Miami rally from double-digits. He's deemed himself 99.2 percent healthy from the abdomen strain that cost him nine games this postseason, so expect him at full strength coming off a 31-minute showing. Down the road, it will be worth monitoring whether the games piling up affects his stamina, but all indications are he's kept himself in shape and will have enough in the tank to play his role.

Making Kevin Garnett work helped turn the tide against the Celtics and will be similarly important considering Ibaka's shot-blocking is such an x-factor. He's averaging 3.4 swats per game in these playoffs and is going to keep Mario Chalmers from attacking the rim the way he was able to when the Heat offense gets stagnant. Kendrick Perkins role as a post defender is diminished by Miami's lack of a true post threat between Bosh and Udonis Haslem, but his key will be showing against James in situations where he winds up switched on to him.

James Harden keys a bench that is far superior to Miami's in the clearest advantage Oklahoma City carries in the series. The reigning Sixth Man of the Year will create matchup problems and could be the difference in helping wear the Heat down. With Sefolosha around to do the dirty work throughout the course of a game, he'll be fresh in fourth quarters where as others may be feeling the crunch of a series that will demand your everything. Nick Collison is also consistently more capable than Joel Anthony and Ronny Turiaf as the primary frontcourt reserve.

Coaching success will not only deal with adjustments and matchups, but also management of minutes as far as Spoelstra is concerned. Brooks' edge in depth means he can afford to drive his team to be as physical as they need to be. As a result, look for OKC to dictate the pace, especially in the first two home games.

"We're an athletic, offensive team, we score at a high level, our field-goal percentage is good but we're still a defensive team," said Brooks. "We have to be able to score off our defense."

The Heat are 8-0 when scoring 100 points in these playoffs, so expect the Thunder to be driven to clamp down early. OKC hopes to utilize its edge in legs and depth to keep Miami from finding an early rhythm.

Head-to-Head Matchups: The Heat and Thunder split a pair of regular season meetings with the home team winning each time. Oklahoma City handed Miami its worst loss of the season (at the time) on March 25 at Chesapeake Energy Arena 103-87 as two-point favorites.

The Thunder led by one point after the first quarter, 25-24, but a 14-4 second quarter run helped OKC build a 60-49 advantage at the half. Durant paced the Thunder with 28 points, while Ibaka and Harden chipped in 19 points, as OKC shot 53% from the floor. The loss snapped a four-game winning streak for the Heat, as the big three of James, Wade, and Bosh combined for 57 points. The game finished 'under' the total of 201 ½, as the two clubs put up just 81 second-half points.

Miami exacted revenge less than two weeks later with a 98-93 triumph as two- point home favorites on April 4. In this back-and-forth affair, the Heat grabbed a 50-49 advantage at the half after trailing by 11 points in the second quarter. Shane Battier drilled the first of a pair of three-pointers in the final minutes of the third quarter to give Miami an 80-73 lead heading into the fourth period. James led the Heat with 34 points, even though Miami shot just 34% from the floor. Durant and Westbrook combined for 58 points, but received very little help elsewhere in the lineup. The 'under' of 198 ½ was clinched thanks to a 38-point fourth quarter, but the two teams combined to shoot 44 of 49 from the free-throw line.

The two teams have played very even over the years, with each club capturing four matchups since the Thunder moved to Oklahoma City in 2008. Miami owns a 2-2 SU/ATS record at Chesapeake Energy Arena, with the last victory coming in January 2011, a 108-103 triumph as one-point underdogs.

Betting Notes: Oklahoma City enters this series as a favorite and deservingly so. The Thunder hold homecourt and they've taken advantage of the hostile environment, producing an 8-0 record (5-3 ATS) in the playoffs. Overall, OKC has gone 12-3 SU and 9-5-1 ATS in the playoffs, which includes a 3-3 SU and 4-1-1 ATS record on the road. Make a note that those losses were by 3, 3 and 9 points.

Miami has gone 12-6 SU and 11-7 ATS in the postseason. The Heat have struggled on the road in the playoffs, going 4-4 both SU and ATS, with the most impressive victory coming in Game 6 at Boston in the conference finals. At home, Miami has produced an 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS mark and the closest margin in these games was four points, which occurred in Game 2's win (115-111) over the Celtics.

OKC was made a five-point favorite for Game 1 and that should shift for Game 2. I would expect a drop to 4 and when the series goes back to Miami for three games, look for the Heat to be giving anywhere from 3 to 6 points.

Miami was 11-7 SU and 8-10 ATS versus the Western Conference this season, while OKC went 13-5 both SU and ATS versus the East. The Thunder only had one loss at home against an Eastern opponent, Cleveland (90-96). Also, OKC saw the 'under' go 13-5 in games versus the East this season.

The total on Game 1 was steamed from 190 to 195 and this should be the range for the series, though we have seen the oddsmakers adjust rather quickly in the postseason. OKC has watched the 'over' go 11-4 in the playoffs, while Miami has also leaned to the 'over' (10-8).

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, June 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Indiana - 7:00 PM ET Washington +6 500
Washington - Over 149.5 500

New York - 7:00 PM ET Connecticut -7.5 500 Connecticut - Under 162.5 500

Los Angeles - 7:30 PM ET Los Angeles +2.5 500
Atlanta - Over 162 500

Seattle - 8:00 PM ET Tulsa -1 500
Tulsa - Over 143.5 500

Minnesota - 10:00 PM ET Minnesota -13.5 500
Phoenix - Over 168.5 500