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**StarDust Bum** · 04-28-2012, 01:23 PM

Thunder-Mavs Outlook

April 28, 2012

No. 2 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 7 Dallas Mavericks

Series Price: Oklahoma City -525, Dallas +425

Series Format: Oklahoma City, 2-2-1-1-1

Game 1 - Saturday, April 28
Game 2 - Monday, April 30
Game 3 - Thursday, May 3
Game 4 - Saturday, May 5
Game 5* - Monday, May 7
Game 6* - Thursday, May 10
Game 7* - Saturday, May 12

HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS
TEAM SU ATS HOME AWAY OVER/UNDER PPG DPPG
47-19 35-31 26-7 21-12 31-35 103.1 96.9
36-30 32-34 23-10 13-20 33-33 95.8 94.8

2011-12 Head to Head Meetings
Date Results Total
12/29/11 OKC (-5) 104 vs. Dallas 102 OVER 195.5
1/2/12 Dallas (+2.5) 100 vs. OKC UNDER 196.5
2/1/12 OKC (+1) 95 at Dallas 86 UNDER 197
3/5/12 OKC (-6.5) vs. Dallas 91 UNDER 196

Skinny: Do you bet on experience or talent? If you answered experience in last year's postseason, then you rode the Dallas Mavericks to the NBA Finals. Now can they repeat the feat in a shortened season with another year on the old legs?

The oddsmakers believe they'll be exiting early when they face Oklahoma City in the first round. The Thunder ran away with the Northwest Division this season and almost claimed the top spot in the Western Conference but the team tempered down the stretch. The Thunder are led by the two-headed monster of Kevin Durant (28 PPG) and Russell Westbrook (23.6 PPG), plus they have arguably the best sixth-man in James Harden (16.8 PPG), who was cleared to play after recovering from an elbow by the Lakers' Metta World Peace last week. If the aforementioned trio is on, it's hard to see anybody stopping the Thunder this postseason.

Defensively, the Thunder have two bruisers in center Kendrick Perkins and power forward Serge Ibaka, who seems to have a hand on every ball in the paint (3.7 blocks). If there is a weakness, it could be depth in the backcourt for OKC. Harden does spell Westbook at the point and they acquired veteran Derek Fisher but he's been a liability on defense.

Fortunately for Fisher, he won't have to deal with JJ Barea, who left Dallas for Minnesota in the offseason. The Mavs also won't have Tyson Chander in the middle either, since he departed as well (New York Knicks). Dallas still has Dirk Nowitzki (21.6 PPG), but can he carry this team again? Veterans Jason Kidd and Jason Terry still have the ability to show some sparks, as does Shawn Marion. The additions of Vince Carter and Delonte West bring more experience to the Mavericks.

If Dallas is looking to make another run, it will need somebody to step up outside of the above players. The Mavs have seen flashes from back-up point guard Rodrigue Beaubois (8.9 PPG) but he's still very inconsistent. Forward Brandan Wright is another player that has potential and his size and length will be needed to keep the Thunder out of the paint. Don't be surprised to see Beaubois get major minutes because he's the only player that can come close to keeping up with Westbrook.

Head-to-Head Matchups: These teams split two games in the first week of the season and Dallas easily could've won both if it wasn't for Durant's heroics in the opener. They met again in early February and in early March and Oklahoma City notched its second and third victories over the Mavs. The key to those games was the second-half and how Dallas failed to show up. The Mavs scored 34 and 39 points in each of the setbacks and still managed to lose each game by less than 10 points. What should be noted is that OKC only eclipsed the century mark once against Dallas, which came in the first encounter. And, the Thunder shot 58 percent from the field in that contest, plus they were 24-of-32 (75%) from the free-throw line.

Betting Notes: OKC opened as a 7 ½-point favorite for Game 1 and we would expect that number to go up for Game 2 with a victory or loss. Dallas hasn't been great on the road and it enters the playoffs with four straight losses as a visitor. OKC has a nice crowd at home, which has produced a solid record (23-7 SU, 17-16 ATS). However, gamblers should be aware that the Thunder closed the season with an 8-7 SU and 6-9 ATS mark in the final month. And more importantly, only one win came against a playoff team which was a shorthanded Chicago (92-78) squad at home. We're going to assume that the Thunder will be giving points on the road here barring any key injury or turn of events. With that being said, Dallas has gone 1-1 as a home underdog this season, while OKC owns a solid 9-6 ATS (60%) mark as a road favorite between 1 and 3 points.

OKC has picked up the tempo down the stretch, scoring 100-plus in seven of its final eight games. Dallas has the ability to put points on the board too but this series has been about the 'under.' Three of the four meetings this season went 'under' the number and that was with totals ranging from 196 to 197. Game 1 is looking at a total of 193 ½ and it would be hard to see that number drop but at the same time, expect it to jump up if either team eclipses the century mark.

Series Outlook: Even though Dallas has a lot of experience, that very well could be their downfall in this series especially when you look at the age of the team. OKC has the best two-man tandem in the league, plus the rest of the team knows their exact roles. Unless the Mavericks shoot an extreme percentage from the outside, like they did during last year's championship run, this series shouldn't be that close. Betting the Thunder to win in five (2/1) or six games (4/1) at Sportsbook.com looks promising, instead of laying the minus-500 (Bet $500 to win $100) series price.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-28-2012, 01:26 PM

Bulls-76ers Outlook

April 27, 2012

No. 1 Chicago Bulls vs. No. 8 Philadelphia 76ers

Series Price: Chicago -550, Philadelphia +450

Series Format: Chicago, 2-2-1-1-1

Game 1 - Saturday, April 28 (1:00 PM EST, TNT)
Game 2 - Tuesday, May 1 - (8:00 PM EST, TNT)
Game 3 - Friday, May 4 - (8:00 PM EST, ESPN)
Game 4 - Sunday, May 6 - (1:00 PM EST, ABC)
Game 5* - Tuesday, May 8 - (TBD)
Game 6* - Thursday, May 10 - (TBD)
Game 7* - Saturday, May 12 - (TBD)

HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS
TEAM SU ATS HOME AWAY OVER/UNDER PPG DPPG
50-16 38-27-1 26-7 24-9 31-34-1 96.3 88.2
35-31 33-32-1 19-14 16-17 30-36 93.6 89.4

2011-12 Head to Head Meetings
Date Results Total
03/17/12 Philadelphia 80 @ Chicago 89 (-4) UNDER 184.5
03/04/12 Chicago 96 (-3.5) @ Philadelphia 91 OVER 180.5
02/01/12 Chicago 82 @ Philadelphia 98 (+2) OVER 178

Skinny: Chicago's defense dominated once again in Tom Thibodeau's system, finishing first in the league by allowing 88.2 points per game. The Bulls battle the 76ers in the postseason for the first time since 1991, when Chicago captured its first championship in franchise history. Philadelphia is back in the playoffs for the fourth time in five seasons, while looking to advance to the second round for the first time since 2003.

Reigning MVP Derrick Rose missed 27 games in this shortened season due to various injuries, including a 12-game stretch in March with a groin ailment. The Bulls thrived without Rose by posting an 18-9 SU and 15-12 ATS record, as Luol Deng (15.3 ppg) and Carlos Boozer (15.0 ppg) picked up the scoring slack. Chicago suffered several hiccups at home this season after dominating at the United Center last season (36-5), as the Bulls lost to the Nets, Wizards, Rockets, and Blazers this season.

The Sixers jumped out to a 20-9 start by Valentine's Day, including three wins against the Wizards, two victories over the Bobcats and Pistons, and easy triumphs over the Raptors, Kings, and Cavaliers. The schedule love soon faded with eight losses in the next 10 games, while stumbling to a 15-22 record the final 37 games of the season and the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference.

Head-to-Head Matchups: In perhaps the most complete effort of the season, Philadelphia routed Chicago at the Wells Fargo Center, 98-82 on February 1. The Sixers easily cashed as one-point underdogs, as Doug Collins' team went on a 26-11 run in the third quarter to put away the Bulls. Philadelphia received balanced scoring as five players finished in double-figures, while Andre Iguodala and Thaddeus Young each put up 19 points.

The Bulls rebounded in their next trip to the City of Brotherly Love, rallying for a 96-91 win as 3 ½-point road favorites on March 4. Rose took over with a game-high 35 points, as Chicago outscored Philadelphia, 56-45 in the second half. Once again, the Sixers spread out the scoring with five players tallying at least 14 points, but the stingy Bulls' defense held Philadelphia to 1-of-11 shooting from three-point range.

The final meeting in Chicago turned into another comeback effort by the Bulls, who erased an early 14-point deficit to stun the Sixers, 89-80 on St. Patrick's Day. Philadelphia bettors felt pretty unlucky as four-point road 'dogs, as Rose sat out with a groin injury and the Sixers were outscored by 22 points in the last three quarters. The only bright spot for Philadelphia offensively was Jrue Holiday, who took advantage of Rose's absence as the former UCLA star scored a season-high 30 points.

Betting Notes: The Bulls barely profited at home this season with a 17-15-1 ATS record at the United Center, including a 6-5 ATS mark as a favorite between seven and nine points. The story was different on the highway as the Bulls put up a solid 18-10 ATS ledger as away 'chalk.' The role of a home underdog didn't suit Philadelphia very well, as the Sixers cashed in just one of five opportunities, with the lone victory coming over the Bulls in early February. The Sixers took care of business this season against sub-.500 competition, but went 4-10 SU and 6-8 ATS as road 'dogs.

Series Outlook: If there's one thing we learned about the Bulls last season, this team is not going to steamroll anybody in a best-of-seven series. Indiana gave Chicago fits in the first round, while Atlanta hung around in the semifinals. The Sixers didn't want to face the Heat in the opening round, as Philadelphia needs to avoid long droughts offensively if it has any chance to survive in this series. Philadelphia will likely steal a game at home, but Chicago will advance in five games.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-28-2012, 01:27 PM

Heat-Knicks Outlook

April 27, 2012

No. 2 Miami Heat vs. No. 7 New York Knicks

Series Price: Miami -550, New York +450

Series Format: Miami, 2-2-1-1-1

Game 1 - Saturday, April 28 (3:30 PM EST, ABC)
Game 2 - Monday, April 30 (7:00 PM EST, TNT)
Game 3 - Thursday, May 3 (7:00 PM EST, TNT)
Game 4 - Sunday, May 6 (3:30 PM EST, ABC)
Game 5* - Wednesday, May 9 (TBD)
Game 6* - Friday, May 11 (TBD)
Game 7* - Sunday, May 13 (TBD)

HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS
TEAM SU ATS HOME AWAY OVER/UNDER PPG DPPG
46-20 32-34 28-5 18-15 25-39-2 98.5 92.5
36-30 36-30 22-11 14-19 27-39 97.8 94.7

2011-12 Head to Head Meetings
Date Results Total
04/15/12 Miami 93 (-3) @ New York 85 UNDER 189
02/23/12 New York 88 @ Miami 102 (-10) UNDER 204.5
01/27/12 New York 89 @ Miami 99 (-12) UNDER 196.5

Skinny: The Heat and Knicks are no strangers to playoff action, meeting for the fifth time in the postseason since 1997. However, Miami and New York are hooking up for the first time since 2000, when the Knicks knocked out the Heat in seven games. The cast of characters is completely different 12 years later, as LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh look to defend their Eastern Conference title.

Miami finished the regular season at 46-20, while nailing down the second seed for the second consecutive campaign. The Heat never suffered a losing streak of more than three games, as Erik Spoelstra's team jumped out of the gate with an 8-1 start. The Knicks went through a roller-coaster ride this season that included the emergence of point guard Jeremy Lin and the resignation of head coach Mike D'Antoni.

After Mike Woodson took over on March 14, New York exploded for five straight victories. The Knicks wrapped up the final six weeks on an 18-6 SU/ATS run to claim the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference that included an 11-1 SU/ATS record at Madison Square Garden. The defense clamped down by limiting 18 opponents in this stretch to below 100 points, even though Amar'e Stoudemire missed 13 games with a back injury.

Head-to-Head Matchups: Miami swept the season series, 3-0, which included a pair of victories at the American Airlines Arena. The first win came on January 27 in South Florida, a 99-89 triumph, but the Knicks cashed as 12-point underdogs. In spite of Carmelo Anthony out of the lineup, New York chucked up 43 three-point attempts, knocking down 18 treys. James and Wade combined for 59 points, while overcoming a poor shooting night from Bosh (4-18 FG).

Less than a month later in the game prior to the All-Star break, the Heat knocked off the Knicks again in Miami, 102-88 as 10-point 'chalk.' The Miami defense held Lin to one field goal in 11 attempts, while the Knicks shot just 39% from the floor. The big three of James, Wade, and Bosh dominated again by scoring 67 points, guaranteeing a season series victory for the Heat.

Miami finished off the sweep at Madison Square Garden on "Tax Day," earlier this month, 93-85. The Heat cashed as three-point favorites, as Miami's defense limited New York to 41 points in the second half. Anthony pumped in a game-high 42 points, but James and Wade put up 57 points between them as the Heat out-rebounded the Knicks, 47-33.

Betting Notes: Thanks to one of the top defenses in the league, the Heat turned in a 23-10 mark to the 'under' at home, including eight of the final nine games of the season. Miami didn't perform well in the role of a road favorite by posting a 12-16 ATS mark as away 'chalk.' The Knicks struggled on the highway as underdogs with wins in just seven of 21 opportunities, while going 10-11 ATS. New York performed better when receiving points at MSG, putting together a 5-3 ATS mark as home 'dogs, including a 6-2 ledger to the 'over.'

Series Outlook: The Heat has heard the criticism since last summer after coming up short in the NBA Finals against the Mavericks. Miami rested its big trio down the stretch and is ready for another run at the Finals in June. The Knicks have improved drastically since D'Antoni's exit, but New York will likely come up short again after getting swept in the first round by Boston last season. Miami will advance to the conference semifinals in five games.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-28-2012, 01:29 PM

Pacers-Magic Outlook

April 27, 2012

No. 3 Indiana Pacers vs. No. 6 Orlando Magic

Series Price: Indiana -900, Orlando +600

Series Format: Indiana, 2-2-1-1-1

Game 1 - Saturday, April 28
Game 2 - Monday, April 30
Game 3 - Wednesday, May 2
Game 4 - Saturday, May 5
Game 5* - Tuesday, May 8
Game 6* - Friday, May 11
Game 7* - Sunday, May 13

HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS
TEAM SU ATS HOME AWAY OVER/UNDER PPG DPPG
42-24 32-34 23-10 19-14 35-31 97.7 94.4
37-29 34-32 21-12 16-17 33-31 94.2 93.4

2012 Head to Head Meetings
Date Results Total
1/24/12 Orlando (+3) 102 at Indiana 83 OVER 183
1/29/12 Indiana (+3.5) 106 at Orlando 85 OVER 181
2/4/12 Orlando (+5) 85 at Indiana 81 UNDER 188
3/11/12 Orlando (-5) 107 vs. Indiana 94 OVER 184

Skinny: At least we won't have to deal with constant camera shots of Dwight Howard sporting his Clark Kent look on the Orlando bench. The Magic's franchise center is in L.A. rehabilitating from his recent back surgery and isn't expected to be in attendance for any of these games.

Roy Hibbert won't miss him.

The Eastern Conference's other All-Star center had little success dealing with Howard, who seemingly always gets up for their meetings. After a soap opera-filled season prematurely ended with Howard severely aggravating an existing injury in Philadelphia on April 7, the Magic have adopted the slogan "we're all we got" and hope to rally around a supporting cast put together to complement the game's top big man. Privately, they do believe they can beat an Indiana team that hasn't won a playoff series since 2005 and has only played in one postseason with the bulk of its current core, losing to Chicago in five games last year.

It remains to be seen whether that confidence is misguided.

Bolstered by the acquisitions of David West and George Hill, Indiana has consistently been among the Eastern Conference's top teams all season but really took off in April. The Pacers opened the month with four consecutive wins and ended up rolling off 11 of 12 before putting it in cruise control with the No. 3 seed locked up.

The Magic haven't been able to gain much cohesion because so many key parts have been out of the lineup, starting with Howard's replacement, Glen Davis. Orlando is playing through him in the post, but has had to deal with him tweaking a knee and spraining an ankle over the last two weeks. He stepped on Byron Mullens' foot in the first quarter on Wednesday and will likely be a game-time decision when the series tips.

Hedo Turkoglu, back after having his face broken by an errant Carmelo Anthony elbow on April 5, will play with a newly-fitted mask. Ryan Anderson, Jason Richardson, Quentin Richardson, Jameer Nelson and J.J. Redick round out the remainder of Stan Van Gundy's likely core, though he's expected to utilize Earl Clark and Daniel Orton in situations that require size.

Can that be enough to make this series competitive? That likely hinges on how well Orlando shoots the ball, since it lacks defensive continuity with its chief rim protector gone. Van Gundy hates that the Magic have become a team forced to out-score opponents to register wins, but he'll have to be flexible in order to get results. The Magic may have to push the pace to keep Indiana from setting up its halfcourt defense, which comes equipped with a 7-foot-2 shotblocker and two terrific on-ball defenders in Hill and Paul George starting in the backcourt.

Head-to-Head Matchups: Orlando won three of four meetings with the Pacers, but considering all the games included Howard and only one occurred post-All-Star break, there's not a lot to read into it.

Howard shot 37-for-54 (68.5 pct) in the four games, completely taking apart Hibbert with his combination of speed and strength. Davis, who likely won't ever be 100 percent in the series, will be giving up roughly six inches. He shot 7-for-17 in three games against the Pacers, averaging just 7 points per game.

The Magic need him to step up his game the way he managed to this month, where the increased touches seemed to energize him. Anderson, who will be the focal point of the offense, drilled 11-of-20 3-pointers against the Pacers this season and was especially strong at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, shooting 6-for-9 from beyond the arc and averaging 18 points and 7.5 rebounds in two visits. J.J. Redick, coming off a career-high 31-point night on Wednesday, shot 7-for-15 from 3-point range against Indiana this season.

Hibbert shot 18-for-43 and averaged only 10.8 points and 6.5 rebounds, but he's had a streak of five consecutive double-doubles during this month's surge. Top scorer Danny Granger has averaged 19.2 points in the four games against the Magic, but has shot just 7-for-26 from 3-point range. West also struggled mightily when playing Orlando (7 ppg, 5 rpg), so there's no question that the Pacers are very confident they'll be able to reverse their fortunes with Howard missing.

Betting Notes: Ready for more numbers skewed by Howard's presence that no longer apply? The Magic have won nine of 10 SU against the Pacers, covering five of six. Three of the last four games have gone over. Despite being an excellent home team thanks to a great arena and vocal fan base, the Pacers went just 15-18 ATS. They were 23-10 SU.

Series Outlook: The Magic are forced to rely on their jump shot if they plan on extending their season, since they're not equipped to defend consistently. The Pacers have great size and athleticism and look like a clear favorite on paper, but don't put it past the Magic sneaking off with a couple of these games if they get some hot shooting. Rebounding and defense, Howard's staples, become Indiana's advantages.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-28-2012, 01:31 PM

Spurs-Jazz Outlook

April 28, 2012

No. 1 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 8 Utah Jazz

Series Price: San Antonio -2000, Utah +1200

Series Format: San Antonio, 2-2-1-1-1

Game 1 - Sunday, April 29
Game 2 - Wednesday, May 2
Game 3 - Saturday, May 5
Game 4 - Monday, May 7
Game 5* - Wednesday, May 9
Game 6* - Friday, May 11
Game 7* - Sunday, May 13

HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS
TEAM SU ATS HOME AWAY OVER/UNDER PPG DPPG
50-16 42-20 28-5 22-11 39-27 103.7 96.5
36-30 34-31 25-8 11-22 33-33 99.7 96.5

2011-12 Head to Head Meetings
Date Results Total
12/31/11 San Antonio (-14.5) 104 vs. Utah 89 UNDER 195.5
2/2/12 San Antonio (-2.5) 106 at Utah 102 OVER 192.5
4/8/12 San Antonio (-10) 114 vs. Utah 104 OVER 210
4/9/12 Utah (-4) 91 vs. San Antonio 84 UNDER 207.5

Skinny: Despite a lockout-shortened season, San Antonio won 50 games again. That they managed to do that for an NBA-record 13th consecutive time will probably be spun into a negative by naysayers hanging on to the tired take that this team should be collecting Social Security, not another top seed in the mighty Western Conference.

Because Coach of the Year favorite Gregg Popovich was so cautious with his veteran key components down the stretch, the Spurs enter this first-round series completely healthy. That wasn't the case last year against Memphis, when an injured Manu Ginobili gutted through a debilitating elbow injury and his performance and team suffered for it. Although he's missed more games than any other Spur this season, Ginobili has been healthy the last two months and has scored 20 or more four times this month, a sign he's hitting his groove at the perfect time.

The Jazz can't be happy about that development, but considering the streamers that fell from the sky when they clinched this playoff berth with Tuesday's elimination of Phoenix, this particular group is just happy to be part of the postseason party. After missing out when Jerry Sloan resigned, Deron Williams was dealt and Tyrone Corbin dealt with a learning curve, Utah is again an above-average squad.

Al Jefferson ended a personal six-year drought between playoff appearances and will be the key to any realistic thoughts of an upset. He'll have to overcome the defense of Tim Duncan, whose impact at that end of the floor isn't what it used to be but remains formidable due to his length and savvy.

Tony Parker and Devin Harris have had playoff battles earlier in their careers when the Jazz point guard was still in Dallas, so look for that matchup to hotly contested. Harris has the size and speed to make Parker work and must have a great series if Utah is to have any shot.

No one can touch San Antonio's depth, which has been flexed all month as Popovich has juggled personnel to keep everyone fresh. It does help that the Jazz have gotten Josh Howard and Raja Bell back from major injuries this week. Youngsters Gordon Hayward, DeMarre Carroll and Alec Burks have been putting in work on the wing, but there's no question Corbin is likely to ride with his playoff-tested veterans once they knock some of the rust off.

Head-to-Head Matchups: San Antonio won three of four meetings with the Jazz, with the only loss coming on the second part of a home-and-home where Popovich opted to rest his Big 3, who had combined for 64 points and 24 rebounds to key a 114-104 win the night before.

Ginobili has only played in two of the meetings, but scored 23 points -- one off his season-high -- both times. Parker has gotten to the free-throw line against Utah more than against any other team he's seen this season, excelling by knocking down 27-of-28. Duncan is averaging 15 points and 10.7 rebounds against the Jazz, participating in all three wins.

Jefferson played in all four meetings with the Spurs and averaged 18 points, 10.5 rebounds and 2.5 blocks, but tag-team partner Paul Millsap has really struggled, averaging only 11 points and 7.8 boards. He's just 5-for-15 in San Antonio (5 ppg, 5 rpg) and must step up his production there to keep the Jazz from digging themselves an early hole. Hayward averaged 10 points per game over the four meetings, but hit only 14 of 37 shot attempts.

Betting Notes: Count on being forced to lay heavy if riding the Spurs at home. The geezers have been lights out at AT&T Center, going 28-5 SU and 24-8 ATS. San Antonio has won and covered each of its last 11 games. Conversely, Utah has struggled outside Salt Lake City down the stretch and finished 14-19 ATS on the road. Prior to that April 9 loss, San Antonio had won six consecutive meetings, including three at Energy Solutions Arena. Four of the last six encounters have gone over the posted total.

Series Outlook: Jefferson has it in him to put the Jazz on his back and win a couple of games in this series, but this team isn't as skilled or deep as the Grizzlies were in San Antonio's 1-8 matchup a year ago. It really helps the Spurs that they have two full days before the series starts and then again prior to Game 2, which means they'll be extremely well-rested when the series shifts to the Utah. As a result, this is likely to be a short stint for the Jazz unless everyone plays over their heads. Considering they would need Bell or Howard to emerge as an ex-factor and neither enters the postseason in game shape, the deck is stacked against them. The Spurs should be able to wrap this series up in five games or less.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-28-2012, 01:33 PM

Hawks-Celtics Outlook

April 27, 2012

No. 4 Boston Celtics vs. No. 5 Atlanta Hawks

Series Price: Boston -200, Atlanta +160

Series Format: Atlanta, 2-2-1-1-1
(*Hawks get homecourt due to better record)

Game 1 - Sunday, April 29
Game 2 - Tuesday, May 1
Game 3 - Friday, May 4
Game 4 - Sunday, May 6
Game 5* - Tuesday, May 8
Game 6* - Thursday, May 10
Game 7* - Saturday, May 12

HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS
TEAM SU ATS HOME AWAY OVER/UNDER PPG DPPG
39-27 34-31 24-9 15-18 28-36 91.8 89.3
40-26 36-28 23-10 17-16 33-33 96.6 93.2

2012 Head to Head Meetings
Date Results Total
3/19/12 Boston (+2) 79 at Atlanta 76 UNDER 182
4/11/12 Boston (-2.5) 88 vs. Atlanta 86 (OT) UNDER 180
4/20/12 Atlanta (-10.5) 97 vs. Boston 92 OVER 179.5

Skinny: Since 1988, Boston and Atlanta have met twice in the playoffs with both series going the distance. In 1988, the Hawks took a 3-2 advantage with a rare win at Boston Garden but couldn't close the deal in Game 6 at the old Omni. In Game 7, Larry Bird and Dominique Wilkins put on a show for the ages in the fourth quarter and overtime with the Celtics winning a thriller by two points.

Twenty years later, the top-seeded Celtics faced a 37-45 Hawks team that was young and in the postseason for the first time in many years. Boston blew Atlanta out twice in Beantown and appeared to be on its way to dealing out broom treatment. However, the tide turned at Philips Arena with the Hawks winning Games 3 and 4. They forced a Game 7 by winning Game 6, but the Celtics cruised in all four home games and went on to win the NBA title.

Since giving the Celtics fits four years ago, the Hawks have won first-round series three consecutive seasons. They beat the Heat in '09, the Bucks in '10 and the Magic last year. Atlanta got swept in the second round in '09 and '10, but it took the Bulls to six games in the second round last season. Gamblers should also keep in mind that the Hawks haven't advanced to the Eastern Conference finals since the franchise moved to Atlanta.

Boston won the Atlantic Division to garner the East's No. 4 seed but by virtue of a better overall record, Atlanta will enjoy homecourt advantage when the series tips off Sunday night. But the Hawks are going to be without their two best big men in Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia. Horford (torn pectoral muscle) hopes to return in Round 2 if Atlanta advances. As for Pachulia (sprained foot), he's expected to return at some point against Boston but is 'out' for Game 1 at least.

Doc Rivers's team is also dealing with a key injury. Ray Allen's sprained ankle has him 'questionable' for Game 1 and has kept him on the sidelines for the Celtics' last eight games. Allen averages 14.2 points per game and is one of the league's best pure shooters.

Boston has won 16 of its last 22 games and is 15-5-2 ATS during this span. Meanwhile, Atlanta has won five of its last six games despite the absence of Pachulia. The lone loss was a one-point defeat against the Knicks.

Atlanta's perennial All-Star guard Joe Johnson is playing extremely well, averaging 23.8 points per game in the last four contests. During the regular season, Johnson posted his best shooting percentages from 3-point land (38.8%) and the free-throw line (84.9%) since joining the Hawks.

But the key for Atlanta is Josh Smith, who enjoyed his finest season as a pro. Smith averaged 18.8 points, 9.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.7 blocked shots and 1.4 steals per game. With his length, athleticism and versatility, Smith creates matchup problems for the Celtics.

Without Horford and Pachulia, the C's will key on Johnson and Smith and that means Atlanta will need production from guards Kirk Hinrich and Jeff Teague. They'll also need Marvin Williams to help out on the boards.

In 2008, Boston was all about The Big Three of Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett. But these days, Rajon Rondo is the catalyst and second-year guard Avery Bradley (7.6 PPG) has taken on a larger role. Bradley has scored in double figures in seven of Boston's last eight games.

Rondo averages 11.9 points, 11.8 assists and 4.9 rebounds per game. With the possible exception of San Antonio's Tony Parker, Rondo gets into the lane and makes things happen off the dribble better than any other point guard in the league.

Pierce (19.4 PPG) remains a dynamite player and is still the guy that Rivers looks to at crunch time. On the flip side, KG has clearly lost a step (or two).

Head-to-Head Matchups: These clubs played three nail-biters this year with Boston prevailing in two of the three meetings. On March 19, the Celtics won a 79-76 decision at Atlanta as two-point road underdogs. Allen scored a team-high 19 points for the winners, while Rondo tallied 10 points, 13 assists and six steals. The 155 combined points easily stayed 'under' the 182-point total.

The Hawks played without Horford, Willie Green and Marvin Williams in this game due to injuries. Johnson scored a game-high 25 points.

In the second encounter at Boston, the Celtics captured an 88-86 win in overtime. However, the Hawks took the cash as 2 ½-point road underdogs, and the 'under' (180) hit again despite the extra session. Rondo led the winners with a triple-double, scoring 10 points, pulling down 10 rebounds and dishing out 20 assists. Garnett finished with 22 points and 12 rebounds, while Brandon Bass also had a double-double with 21 points and 10 boards.

In the losing effort, Smith had 20 points, 11 rebounds, five assists and a pair of blocked shots. Teague finished with 21 points and six assists.

The third meeting on April 20 can't really be taken into account because the Celtics rested KG, Rondo, Pierce and Allen. Atlanta won by a 97-92 count but Boston covered as a 10 ½-point underdog. The 189 points went 'over' the 179 ½-point tally. Johnson scored a game-high 30 points, while Bradley had a career-high 28 in defeat.

Betting Notes: Most betting shops are listing Atlanta as a 1 ½-point favorite with the total in the 178-179 range. The Hawks are minus-125 on the money line, while the Celtics are available for a plus-105 return (risk $100 to win $105).

The 'over' is on a 10-1 run in Atlanta's last 11 home games to improve to 19-13-1. When the series moves to Boston, bettors should note that the 'under' is 19-13-1 for the C's at home, 19-14 for the Hawks on the road.

Series Outlook: When will Pachulia be able to play and be effective? Will Ray Allen be 100 percent from the series opener and beyond? Can Jeff Teague and Kirk Hinrich knock down perimeter shots to take the pressure off of Josh Smith and Joe Johnson?

With homecourt advantage and a healthy Pachulia, I'd pick the Hawks to win the series. But with the unknowns around Pachulia, I've got to predict the Celtics to win in six games behind the play of Rondo.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

--Game 1 is scheduled to tip Sunday at 7:05 p.m. Eastern on TNT.

--Boston's odds to win the NBA title are 15/1 per Sportsbook.com. The Hawks own 60/1 odds.

--Gamblers backing the 'over' for Atlanta's regular-season win total (35 ½) cashed tickets despite the fact that Al Horford missed most of the season.

--Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports on the up-and-down career of Josh Smith.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-28-2012, 01:37 PM

Playoff Angles

April 27, 2012

NBA Playoff Payoffs

To the unsuspecting gambler, the NBA often times simply means “Nothing But Agony.” To the informed, however, it represents a “Nice Bankroll Advantage.”

Knowing the difference is half the battle. Having substantively sound edges in your favor is the other half, especially during the postseason.

With the 2011-12 NBA regular season now in the history books, let's take a look at how this season's 16 playoff participants have fared in the post season over the last 21 years.

Listed below is a chart containing each team’s SU (Straight-Up) and ATS (Against–the-Spread) performance record in all playoff games since 1991, along with a key BEST and WORST playoff ATS trend for each team since 1991.

Let's have a look...

Eastern Conference
Team SU Record ATS Record Best Angle Worst Angle

Atlanta 36-60 78-62-2 8-1 ATS HF > 4 vs opp off win 1-14 SU/ATS away off loss 12 >

Boston 72-67 68-68-3 8-2 ATS away off loss 20 > 1-12 ATS fav > 2 off one win exact

Chicago 124-62 78-62-2 7-1 ATS dog off SU fav loss 0-5 ATS DD fav vs opp off BB wins

Indiana 81-76 85-66-6 7-0-1 ATS off loss > 16 0-5 ATS home off ATS win > 18

Miami 71-68 65-70-4 10-1 ATS off DD loss Rounds Two & Three 2-18 3-17 ATS Round One RD > 2

New York 72-71 73-67-3 14-2 ATS Round One RD < 7 0-4 ATS fav > 5 off loss

Orlando 56-62 51-63-4 5-1 ATS dog 9 > 2-11 ATS fav off SU fav loss

Philadelphia 38-50 42-45-1 6-1 ATS DD dog 0-6 ATS Game Two off loss > 4

Western Conference

Team SU Record ATS Record Best Angle Worst Angle

Dallas 65-62 65-59-3 10-1-1 ATS RD 3 < 1-9 ATS home off win as dog +3 >

Denver 23-43 30-51-1 5-0 ATS vs opp off loss 20 > 1-9 ATS dog 7 > vs opp off SU/ATS win

L.A. Clippers 11-4 12-13 4-0 ATS home off SU/ATS loss 1-6 ATS away off SU/ATS win

L.A. Lakers 153-100 121-124-8 9-0 ATS dog 4 > off loss 14 > 1-11 ATS off BB losses, last as fav

Memphis 7-18 10-14-1 4-1 ATS fav off loss 0-11 SU and 1-9-1 ATS if .569 <

Oklahoma City 63-67 59-68-3 11-3 ATS Game Two off loss 1-12 ATS off ATS win 16 >

San Antonio 129-98 119-101-7 9-1 ATS Round Four vs opp off win 1-8 ATS dog vs opp off BB SU/ATS losses

Utah 94-94 100-86-2 5-1 ATS DD dog 0-4 ATS dog 7 > off loss 20 >

OPENING ROUND AWESOME ANGLE

PLAY ON any home team in Game Three of the opening round of the playoffs off one loss exact if they lost to the spread by 10 or less points in the loss.

Record Since 1991: 16-3 SU (84%) and 17-2 ATS (89%)

There you have it. A study in progress of this year’s playoff teams and how they have fared in NBA postseason play since 1991… plus an Awesome Angle to strongly consider in the opening round.

By applying a little bit of discipline, and with some fortuitous insight, you too can also enjoy a "Nice Bankroll Advantage" this NBA playoff season.

Enjoy!

**StarDust Bum** · 04-28-2012, 01:39 PM

Spurs are big favorites

April 27, 2012

First Round Series Prices

Eastern Conference

(1) Chicago vs. (8) Philadelphia

76ers +900
Bulls -1400

(2) Miami vs. (7) New York

Knicks +650
Heat -1000

(3) Indiana vs. (6) Orlando

Magic +550
Pacers -800

(4) Boston vs. (5) Atlanta

Hawks +185
Celtics -225

**Hawks have homecourt advantage due to better overall record

Western Conference

(1) San Antonio vs. (8) Utah

Jazz +1400
Spurs -2000

(2) Oklahoma City vs. (7) Dallas

Mavericks +400
Thunder-550

(3) L.A. Lakers vs. (6) Denver

Nuggets +200
Lakers -250

(4) Memphis vs. (5) L.A. Clippers

Clippers +170
Grizzlies -200

How to read the Series Odds:
Bet $2,000 on San Antonio (-2000) to win $100
Bet $100 on Dallas (+400) to win $500
Bet $100 on Atlanta (+185) to win $185

**StarDust Bum** · 04-28-2012, 01:48 PM

NBA Playoff Series Preview: Mavericks vs. Thunder

NBA PLAYOFF SERIES PREVIEW

No. 7 DALLAS MAVERICKS (36-30)

vs. No. 2 OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (47-19)

Western Conference – First Round, Best-of-7 series
Game 1 Tip-off: Saturday, 9:30 p.m. ET
Series Line: Oklahoma City -550, Dallas +400

The defending champion Mavericks are not expected to remain in the playoffs for very long as they face a Thunder team that most experts think will represent the West in the NBA Finals.

Dallas beat Oklahoma City in five games in last year’s Western Conference Finals, but the Thunder could have prevailed in every one of those contests, losing by just 9, 6, 7 and 4 points. And the Mavs no longer have two key players from that series in C Tyson Chandler (10.6 RPG in 2011 West finals) and PG Jose Juan Barea (11.4 PPG in 2011 West finals). Last year’s experience was invaluable for OKC and now this young team is ready to dominate an erratic Mavs squad that ended the season losing four of its final six contests, allowing a whopping 106.3 PPG (47% FG, 41.4% threes) during this slump. This season’s series is 3-1 in favor of Oklahoma City, which is clearly the more consistent and deeper team in this matchup. The Thunder also have the league’s top scorer in SF Kevin Durant (28.0 PPG), and PG Russell Westbrook has matured greatly since his poor 2011 West Finals performance (36% FG, 20% threes, 4.8 TOPG). Westbrook has pumped in 23.6 PPG on 46% FG clip this season, including 22.8 PPG against Dallas. Thirty-nine-year-old Jason Kidd will have a hard time keeping Westbrook in check.

******* Prediction: OKLAHOMA CITY to win series in 5 games.

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The lack of home-court advantage will really hurt Dallas, which was a dreadful 13-20 on the road this year, scoring just 94.2 PPG (44% FG) away from home. The Mavs have also been a subpar rebounding team at -1.1 RPG, which will really hurt against a Thunder team that ranks fifth in the NBA with +2.8 RPG margin.

PF Dirk Nowitzki (21.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG) has always thrived against the Thunder. He torched them for 32.2 PPG in last year’s playoff series and has averaged 28.7 PPG against them in the past four regular seasons. Nowitzki is also hot right now, finishing the season with 26.0 PPG on 51% FG in his final five contests. Kidd (6.2 PPG, 5.5 APG) has gotten plenty of rest, sitting out past final two games, and has done a fantastic job running the point in his past five contests with 37 assists and just seven turnovers. He just hasn’t done much against the Thunder this year, scoring 3.0 PPG with 5.7 APG in the three meetings. SG Jason Terry (15.1 PPG) is the key to Dallas hanging around in this series. The streaky shooter is currently in a cold spell though, making just 7-of-21 FG (2-of-12 threes) in his past two games. He has shot very well against OKC though, pouring in 18.5 PPG on 11-of-23 three-pointers in the four meetings.

The Thunder finished third in the league in both scoring (103.1 PPG) and shooting (47.1% FG), while also placing fourth in the NBA in FG Pct. defense (42.7%). Much of this had to do with a league-high 8.2 blocks per game, 3.7 of them coming from PF Serge Ibaka.

Durant (28.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG) was able to pump in 28.0 PPG in last year’s West finals versus Dallas, but made just 42.9% FG and 23.3% threes. He’s averaged 25.5 PPG against the Mavs this season, but made just 44.6% of his shots. However, Durant enters this series on quite a roll, scoring at least 24 points in eight straight games, averaging 31.6 PPG on 47% FG and 44.2% threes during this stretch. Westbrook (23.6 PPG, 5.5 APG) was in a bit of a funk for a five-game stretch (13.8 PPG on 30.5% FG and 1-of-12 threes), but finished his season with 30 points and nine assists in a loss to Denver. The only question mark for the Thunder is the health of SF James Harden (16.8 PPG, 3.7 APG) after he suffered a concussion from the errant Metta World Peace elbow to his head last Sunday. He’s expected to be in uniform when the series begins Saturday night, and looks to shoot better than the 39% FG clip he had against Dallas this season. Harden did have a strong West Finals in 2011 though, dropping 14.0 PPG (54% FG) and 6.0 RPG on the Mavs during the series.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-28-2012, 01:50 PM

NBA Playoff Series Preview: Magic vs. Pacers

NBA PLAYOFF SERIES PREVIEW

No. 6 ORLANDO MAGIC (37-29)

vs. No. 3 INDIANA PACERS (42-24)

Eastern Conference – First Round, Best-of-7 series
Game 1 Tip-off: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Series Line: Indiana -800, Orlando +550

One year after giving the Bulls a Round 1 scare as a No. 8 seed, the Pacers will be heavily favored going against the Dwight Howard-less Magic.

Even after finishing three games in front of Boston for the No. 3 seed, the Pacers are still considered by many to be outside of the East’s Big Three. But this is a team that won 10 of their last 12 meaningful games and had a chance to get healthy down the stretch. Meanwhile, the Magic press on without Dwight Howard. They’ve gone 4-5 since their disgruntled franchise center last played, and it’s tough to see them stealing even one game on the road.

******* Prediction: INDIANA to win series in 6 games.

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The Magic beat Indiana three of four, but had Howard for each of those games. Howard largely erased Pacers C Roy Hibbert in their four matchups, as Hibbert averaged just 10.8 PPG on 41.9% FG and posted an average plus/minus of -11.5 in those games. The absence of Howard adds a whole different dimension to Indiana’s offense. The 7-foot-2 Hibbert will be going head-to-head with the likes of 6-foot-9 Glen Davis and D-League veteran Daniel Orton.

If the Magic need to collapse on Hibbert, they could be in trouble. SF Danny Granger averaged 21.6 PPG and hit 47.3% of his threes in April, SG Paul George went 10-for-20 from three over his past six games, PG George Hill gives them a pure shooter at the point, and PF David West averaged 15.2 PPG on 54.6% FG in April.

The Magic are always dangerous though because of the way they shoot the three. They made 100 more threes than anyone in the NBA, and shot the third-highest three-point percentage in the league (37.5%). The question is whether PF Ryan Anderson can make long-range shots without Howard drawing defenders away from him. Anderson is shooting 27.1% from three since Howard went down. It’s a very bad sign against a Pacers team that defends the perimeter well (35.1% 3-pt FG Pct. defense).

**StarDust Bum** · 04-28-2012, 01:52 PM

NBA Playoff Series Preview: Knicks vs. Heat

NBA PLAYOFF SERIES PREVIEW

No. 7 NEW YORK KNICKS (36-30)

vs. No. 2 MIAMI HEAT (46-20)

Eastern Conference – First Round, Best-of-7 series
Game 1 Tip-off: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Series Line: Miami -1000, New York +650

There will be no shortage of star power when the Knicks and Heat tip off their first-round series Saturday afternoon in Miami.

But this matchup is a worst-case scenario for the Knicks. While they’re defending much better under Mike Woodson, they don’t have the personnel to handle all the components of the Big Three. And while they have enough firepower to try and outscore Miami (if they’re lucky), SF Carmelo Anthony and PF Amar’e Stoudemire don’t play enough defense to carry them past a Miami team that’s built for playoff basketball. The Heat have enough shot-makers to limit New York C Tyson Chandler’s impact around the basket on defense. SG Dwyane Wade’s broken finger is expected to be close to, if not at, 100 percent when the series tips off and SF LeBron James and PF Chris Bosh got their much-needed rest.

******* Prediction: MIAMI to win series in 4 games.

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The Knicks went 11-1 at home under Woodson, but that one home loss was to Miami two weeks ago. Anthony carried them offensively that day, scoring 42 of their 85 points, but the Knicks couldn’t contain both James (29 points) and Wade (28). The Heat won all three of the matchups with New York this season, including two by double-digits in Miami.

The Knicks brought in Chandler to solidify their defense for the postseason, and he’s been a big help. But the Heat are one of the league’s best mid-range shooting teams, not to mention they’re the one team that can get out in transition during playoff basketball. Despite the presence of Chandler, James went for 26.7 PPG and Wade 26.0 PPG in three meetings with the Knicks this season.

In Anthony, New York does have a player capable of creating his own offense in the half-court. But he doesn’t have the supporting cast to compete with Miami. Stoudemire is still rounding into form after suffering from late-season back problems for a second straight year. The Knicks will be too easy to guard for an elite defense like Miami’s, as they lack any sort of consistent third option, and their only true shooter, Steve Novak, is too much of a defensive liability to play extended minutes.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-28-2012, 01:54 PM

NBA Playoff Series Preview: 76ers vs. Bulls

NBA PLAYOFF SERIES PREVIEW

No. 8 PHILADELPHIA 76ERS (35-31)

vs. No. 1 CHICAGO BULLS (50-16)

Eastern Conference – First Round, Best-of-7 series
Game 1 Tip-off: Saturday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Series Line: Chicago -1400, Philadelphia +900

The Bulls probably would have rather not seen the 76ers in Round 1, but that’s the hand they were dealt when they start their title quest on Saturday afternoon.

Philly plays a similar slow-it-down, defense-first style that should keep every game interesting. In three matchups this year, neither team hit 100 points. But the Sixers also lack a creator, a closer and the three-point shooting to pull off an upset, which will do them in for a second straight season. Chicago got to rest Derrick Rose for Thursday’s season finale and should have him close to 100% for a matchup with a team he picked apart twice this season.

******* Prediction: CHICAGO to win series in 5 games.

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The three-point shot is a weapon that can lead to the upset, but it’s not a weapon the Sixers have. They were 24th in the NBA in three-pointers made, and none of their top shooters (Lou Williams, Andre Iguodala and Jodie Meeks) shoot it well enough to make contested, high-pressure threes with any consistency. In fact, they’ll struggle to generate any offense against Chicago’s elite team defense. A year ago, the Sixers averaged just 86.6 PPG on 41.4% FG in their five-game first-round series loss to Miami.

The Bulls adjusted to life without Rose late in the season, but he played in two of their final three games. He also averaged 26.5 PPG on 50.0% FG and 7.0 APG in two games against the Sixers this year. Chicago was upset in Philly back on Feb. 1, but the Bulls were without their best perimeter defender, Luol Deng, in that game. It’s a big reason why Iguodala went for 19 points on 8-for-13 FG that night. With Deng in the lineup, the Sixers averaged just 85.5 PPG and 40.3% FG in their next two games against Chicago, both Bulls wins. Igoudala went for 10.5 PPG on 36.0% FG in those losses. And the last time the teams met, the Bulls beat them without Rose, 89-80 in Chicago.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-28-2012, 01:55 PM

NBA Playoff Series Preview: Jazz vs. Spurs

NBA PLAYOFF SERIES PREVIEW

No. 8 UTAH JAZZ (36-30)

vs. No. 1 SAN ANTONIO SPURS (50-16)

Western Conference – First Round, Best-of-7 series
Game 1 Tip-off: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Series Line: San Antonio -2000, Utah +1400

The Spurs will try to avoid losing for the second straight season as the top-seeded team in the West when they take on the eighth-seeded Jazz in the first round of the NBA Playoffs.

Bettors are certainly justified in thinking lightning can strike twice. After all, it was the physical play from Memphis’ frontcourt tandem of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol who combined for 35.7 PPG and 21.5 RPG in the six-game series win over San Antonio last year, and Utah’s strength also lies on the interior. The duo of C Al Jefferson (31 double-doubles) and PF Paul Millsap (21 double-doubles) have dominated the paint all season for the Jazz, who enter the series with SU wins in seven of their past nine games, including five in a row. But no team is playing better than the Spurs who ended the season with 10 straight wins and are 21-2 SU (17-3-3 ATS) since losing on St. Patrick’s Day. Gregg Popovich has done a masterful job of resting his star players and the result is a team that is as healthy and fresh as it has ever been going into the playoffs. In the past two seasons, San Antonio has won six of the seven meetings with Utah. The only loss in this stretch came April 9 when the Spurs rested Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili and still led by two points with 3:30 to go before Utah ended the game on a 13-4 run. This line is very favorable for the team with the league’s best record, and the hungry Spurs are out to prove they are for real this time.

******* Prediction: SAN ANTONIO to win series in 5 games.

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Utah’s offense has been sizzling during the season-ending five-game win streak, averaging 109.6 PPG on 46% FG (42.4% threes) during the surge. The Jazz rank fourth in the league in scoring at 99.7 PPG, but their three-point shooting has been atrocious this season, as only three NBA teams have shot below their 32.3% clip. Utah knows how to attack the glass though, placing third in the league in rebounding margin (+3.0 RPG).

The big-man duo of C Al Jefferson (19.2 PPG, 9.6 RPG) and PF Paul Millsap (16.6 PPG, 8.8 RPG) continue to lead this club. Jefferson has had his way inside against the Spurs this season with 18.0 PPG and 10.5 RPG and 2.5 BPG in the four meetings. But Millsap has struggled in the season series, averaging just 11.0 PPG (39.5% FG) and 7.8 RPG. PG Devin Harris (13.5 PPG, 5.0 APG) is also playing his best basketball of the season, averaging 21.0 PPG (17-of-38 threes) and 5.4 APG in his past five full games, which doesn’t include his 12 minutes of action in the season finale. He’s also scored 16.5 PPG (8-of-19 threes) with 4.8 APG against San Antonio this season. But he and SG Gordon Hayward (11.8 PPG, 3.1 APG) will need to make some big threes to keep this series close. Harris shoots a mediocre 36.2% from behind the arc for the season, while Hayward makes just 34.6% from downtown.

The Spurs don’t have any glaring weaknesses. On offense, they led the NBA with a 47.8% FG clip, 39.3% three-pointers and finished second in scoring at 103.7 PPG. Defensively, they held opponents to 43.9% FG (28.9% threes) during the season-ending 10-game win streak.

San Antonio’s three stars have all put together excellent seasons despite limited minutes. PF Tim Duncan (15.4 PPG, 9.0 RPG in 28.2 MPG) finished strong with 19.7 PPG (65% FG) and 8.2 RPG in just 26.2 MPG over his final six games. He also averaged a double-double against Utah this year with 15.0 PPG and 10.7 RPG in three games. PG Tony Parker (18.3 PPG, 7.7 APG) also ended the season with a bang, averaging 16.6 PPG on a blistering 57.4% FG in his final five contests with 46 assists and just 13 turnovers (3.54 A-to-TO ratio). Parker has stepped up his game against Utah’s mediocre backcourt, pumping in 21.7 PPG (46.3% FG, 27-of-28 FT) and 7.3 APG. SG Manu Ginobili (12.9 PPG, 52.6% FG, 41.3% threes) scored 14.3 PPG (61% FG) in just 20.3 MPG in his final six games of the season, and lit up the Jazz for 23.0 PPG (13-of-20 FG, 6-of-12 threes) in two meetings against them this year.

In addition to the three stars, the Spurs have gotten great production from their role players. PF DeJuan Blair (9.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG) and C Tiago Splitter (9.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG) have provided muscle inside, while PG Patrick Mills (10.3 PPG), PG Gary Neal (9.9 PPG), SG Danny Green (9.1 PPG) and PF Matt Bonner (6.6 PPG) are each shooting at least 42% from three-point land.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-28-2012, 01:56 PM

NBA Playoff Series Preview: Nuggets vs. Lakers

NBA PLAYOFF SERIES PREVIEW

No. 6 DENVER NUGGETS (38-28)

vs. No. 3 LOS ANGELES LAKERS (41-25)

Western Conference – First Round, Best-of-7 series
Game 1 Tip-off: Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Series Line: Los Angeles -250, Denver +200

After a roller coaster season, the Lakers have a tough first round playoff draw with the high-scoring Nuggets coming to town to start the series on Sunday afternoon.

This winner of this matchup will be the team that controls the pace of play. Denver leads the NBA in points (104.1 PPG) and assists (24.0 APG) and would love to make this a track meet. The Lakers want to be much more deliberate on offense and let their twin towers of Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol dominate inside. L.A. has the advantage with one of the game’s premier closers in Kobe Bryant, while Denver is a team that doesn’t have one go-to player. But this committee approach has worked in the team’s favor since shipping high-priced Carmelo Anthony out of town last year. The Nuggets closed out the regular season winning eight of their final 10 games including each of the past four by an average margin of 18.0 PPG. But the one factor that can’t be measured is the difference in coaching. George Karl has pulled off many upsets in his day, and Mike Brown has never been known as an overachiever in the postseason. The 2-to-1 odds are just too good to pass up for Karl’s Nuggets.

******* Prediction: DENVER to win series in 6 games.

Are you ready to boost your bankroll for the NBA Playoffs? If so, check out NBA Playoffs Best Bets for all the Expert picks for every playoff game during the 2012 postseason.

Denver has six players that average more than 10 points per game, led by PG Ty Lawson (16.4 PPG, 6.6 APG). He has run the point masterfully during his team’s four-game win streak, handing out 28 assists to just three turnovers. He’s also made at least half of his shots in each of his past six games, averaging 21.8 PPG on 60% FG, including 14-of-20 threes. SG Arron Afflalo (15.2 PPG) also finished the season on a tear, scoring at least a dozen points in his final 21 games, averaging 18.8 PPG on 52% FG (44% threes) during this stretch. He’ll be tasked with stopping Bryant on the defensive end, which will be a much more important role than scoring. Considering how bad Bryant has shot versus Denver this season (27.5% FG, 2-of-17 threes), Afflalo has obviously bothered Bryant with his defense.

SF Danilo Gallinari (14.6 PPG), PF Al Harrington (14.2 PPG), C JaVale McGee (11.3 PPG) and PF Kenneth Faried (10.2 PPG) are all capable of scoring 20 per night, but the question is whether or not Harrington, McGee and Faried can contain Bynum and Gasol in the paint. Harrington and PG Andre Miller (9.7 PPG, 6.7 APG) were the two big scorers against L.A. this year. Harrington led the team with 18.8 PPG on 48% FG, and PG Andre Miller averaged 15.3 PPG (55% FG) and 5.8 APG against the Lakers.

Other than the historically awful Bobcats, the Lakers had the worst ATS record in the league this season at 27-38-1 ATS (41.5%). But the Nuggets finished with the fifth-best ATS mark at 36-30 (54.5%). L.A. won three of the four head-to-head meetings this season, but these teams have split their past 16 meetings (8-8 SU, 8-7-1 ATS favoring Denver) which includes their matchup in the 2009 playoffs. Despite the struggles of Bryant (27.9 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.6 APG) against the Nuggets this year, he enters the playoffs on a high note, averaging 27.8 PPG on 52% FG and 12-of-22 threes in his past six contests.

Bynum (18.7 PPG, 11.8 RPG) has been an absolute force in four games versus Denver this season with 24.8 PPG, 11.8 RPG and 2.3 BPG. Gasol (17.4 PPG, 10.4 RPG) has also averaged a double-double against Denver with 16.0 PPG and 10.8 RPG. PG Ramon Sessions (11.3 PPG, 5.5 APG) will try his best to stay in front of the lightning-quick Lawson to help make up for an offensive slump. In the past five games, Sessions has just 9.2 PPG on 41.7% FG with a mere 17 assists and 12 turnovers. Unless this series lasts seven games, SF Metta World Peace (7.7 PPG) will not play after his elbow to the head of Thunder SF James Harden last Sunday. World Peace earned a seven-game suspension for his actions, which includes being banned for the first six postseason games. In addition to his great defense all season, he has averaged 12.8 PPG in his past four contests.

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