The Bum's NBA Championship Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Wednesday, May 30

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston - 8:30 PM ET Boston +8 500

Miami - Over 177 500


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WNBA

Wednesday, May 30

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Minnesota - 7:00 PM ET Minnesota -11 500

Washington - Under 147 500

Chicago - 8:00 PM ET Chicago +3 500

San Antonio - Over 150.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

WNBA
Dunkel

Phoenix at Atlanta
The Dream look to take advantage of a Phoenix team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 road games. Atlanta is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Dream favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-5 1/2). Here are all of today's picks

THURSDAY, MAY 31

Game 601-602: Phoenix at Atlanta (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 107.173; Atlanta 116.688
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 9 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 5 1/2; 185 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-5 1/2); Over




WNBA
Long Sheet

Wednesday, May 30

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PHOENIX (1 - 2) at ATLANTA (1 - 2) - 5/31/2012, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) in May games since 1997.
PHOENIX is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 3-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 2-2 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WNBA

Thursday, May 31

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
PHOENIX vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Phoenix's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Phoenix's last 19 games
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Phoenix

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Thursday, May 31

Game Score Status Pick Amount

San Antonio - 9:00 PM ET Oklahoma City -3.5 500

Oklahoma City - Under 206 500

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WNBA

Thursday, May 31

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Phoenix - 7:00 PM ET Phoenix +5.5 500

Atlanta - Over 186.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Heat Head To Boston Wih 2-0 Lead Over Celtics


Half-full, or half-empty?

That depends upon the particular tint of the eyeglasses worn by Boston Celtics supporters following Wednesday night’s bitter 115-111 OT loss at Miami in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

What no one can dispute, however, is that time is quickly running out on the Beantown bunch, and perhaps this era of Celtics stars, unless they can forge a turnaround, and quickly, in Friday night’s Game 3 at TD Garden after dropping the first two games of this series at AmericanAirlines Arena.

The Don Best odds screen notes that Boston has been installed as a slight 1½-point favorite for Game 3 at the majority of Las Vegas sports books, with the total posted mostly at 180, though a few stray 179s have also been posted around town.

Tip-off time for Friday’s Game 3 will be 8:30 p.m. (ET), with TV coverage provided by ESPN.

From a Celtic perspective, there was certainly more to be encouraged about after Wednesday’s Game 2 than Monday’s Game 1 in which the Heat cruised, 93-79. As expected, Boston came out with a more-physical mindset on Wednesday, hellbent to protect the glass better than in the series opener when Miami won the board battle by a hefty 48-33 count. The rebound count in Game 2 was level at 42 caroms apiece.

That no-nonsense approach on Wednesday night also carried to work ethic on the stop end, where Doc Rivers’ defenders made a conscientious effort to keep LeBron James and Dwyane Wade from careening into the paint, where each wreaked considerable damage in the first game. The Celtics got physical, alright, blitzing those noted Miami pick-and-rolls and preventing James and Wade from getting much separation from Boston defenders, all much different than a more-passive Celtic approach that was displayed in Game 1.

There was a potential price to be paid, however, if the referees decided to keep the game under control by blowing their whistles. Which they did, consistently, mostly against the Celtics, guilty of 33 fouls (and correspondingly disqualifying Paul Pierce in overtime) which resulted in a whopping 47 free throws by the Heat. Indeed, had Miami converted its charity tosses at a better percentage (it missed 16 of the 47 free throw attempts), LeBron & Co. might not have been forced into an extra session before deciding matters.

These deals with officiating devils, however, are ones that Boston must make if it to have a serious chance at getting back into this series. As is holding serve at TD Garden, which is imperative for the Celtics, who realize a mere split of the two home games won’t be enough, as was the case a year ago when Miami lost Game 3 by a 97-81 count at Boston but prevailed in overtime of Game 4 before wrapping up that East semifinal series in Game 5 at home in Florida.

For the Celtics, they have to hope for slower whistles, and could also use a more-balanced attack to get over the hump. The Game 2 performance of G Rajon Rondo was Herculean, scoring 44 points while hitting 16-of-24 FG attempts and adding 10 assists, all while not taking a breather in the 53 minutes of game time and recording his career playoff-best 44 points, a performance rivaling the greatest in Boston postseason lore.

Yet it still wasn’t enough, as the Celtics wasted a 15-point lead and Rondo’s career night. Expecting Rondo to deliver another performance of that caliber might be asking a bit much, and the glass-is-half-empty crowd might be lamenting a great chance lost in Game 2. Although the half-full Boston backers are likely encouraged by the physical resolve displayed by the Celtics on Wednesday and the fact Rondo might be too much for the Heat to handle when on song.

The real story of the Celtic postseason to date, however, is that only rarely have the “big three” plus Rondo been hitting on all cylinders in the same game. While Rondo was exploding for 44 points in Game 2, Kevin Garnett (only 6-of-18 from the floor) was fairly neutralized, while Pierce was mostly off mark, hitting only 8-of-19 shots and misfiring on all five of his triple attempts.

Meanwhile, Ray Allen, though hitting a clutch three-pointer that would eventually force the overtime period, made only five field goals in 11 shots, and continues to lack the explosive burst caused by his lingering ankle injury. Allen currently lacks the lift that helps him pull up and fire jump shots in traffic (as he can do when healthy), though he still can be an effective dagger-thrower when given clear looks without pressure beyond the arc, as was the case on his game-tying triple in the last minute of regulation.

True, the Miami mindset will likely satisfy for a split at TD Garden, as was the case a year ago. But now receiving points from the oddsmakers, the go-against-the-Heat argument is a hard sell for Game 3, considering Miami’s five wins on the trot in this postseason and six wins in seven playoff games vs. the Celtics since a year ago.

The Heat still own an ultimate weapon, LeBron, who is scoring 33 ppg and gobbling 12 rebounds per game in the first two of this series. He also went to the free-throw line a whopping 24 times in Game 2. While we don’t expect him to have as many charity tosses on the road in Boston, the matchup on James still provides a potential massive headache for Boston, as LeBron can cause vs. most other teams.

Miami’s supporting cast beyond LeBron and D-Wade continues to deliver, with G Mario Chalmers’ key 22 points in Game 2 being mostly overlooked due to the performances of Rondo and LeBron. Frontliners Udonis Haslem and Shane Battier combined for 22 points and 14 rebounds, each hitting clutch shots down the stretch as Miami rallied from a late deficit to force the extra five minutes.

As long as Haslem, Battier and Joel Anthony continue to hold their own vs. Garnett in the paint, Erik Spoelstra will not be tempted to rush Chris Bosh (abdominal pull) back into the lineup sooner than might be advised.

Boston backers could be encouraged by the fact that the Celtics have now covered the spread in five of six games against the Heat in this 2011-12 campaign (including all four regular-season games), although Miami was hampered by various distractions and injuries in the regular-season meetings, none of which (besides Bosh’s absence) apparently an issue at the moment. And the Celtics will not have the benefit of any pointspread cushion in Game 3; to cover the spread, they’ll need to win.

Totals-wise, we are forced to consider the referees’ interpretation of the Boston physical style, as more fouls results in more free throws, more possessions and more points, as we saw in Game 2. While still noting the mostly-‘under’ bent of these two during the past two months – Boston still ‘under’ 23-15 its last 38, and Miami ‘under’ 19-8 its last 27, despite the ‘over’ in Game 2 – that 180 total is reachable with another steady parade to the foul line as in Wednesday’s game, when 76 free throws were attempted.

Stay tuned.

[StarDust Bum]

Game 3, Heat-Celtics

May 31, 2012

The home teams have held serve through the first four games of the conference finals in the NBA playoffs, as the scene in the East shifts to Boston. The Heat survived a scare in Game 2 against the feisty Celtics, rallying from a 15-point deficit to knock off Boston in overtime, 115-111. Miami failed to cash as 7 ½-point favorites, but the Heat has their foot on the Celtics' throats heading to Beantown for Friday's Game 3.

After cruising past the C's in the series opener, Erik Spoelstra's team came out slow in the first half of Game 2. Rajon Rondo put together the game of his life as the Boston point guard scored 22 points in the first half to give the Celtics a 53-46 advantage. The Heat fell behind, 47-32 with four minutes remaining in the half, but a 14-6 run cut the deficit to seven points at the intermission. However, Boston cashed easily as 4 ½-point underdogs in the first half, while the 'over' of 89 hit with 90 seconds left before halftime.

Rondo's unexpected production in the first 24 minutes was as surprising as Dwyane Wade's disappearing act in the opening half. Wade scored just two points early on, but helped spark the huge third quarter rally by Miami, a 35-22 output to take a six-point lead heading into the final period. Both Wade and MVP LeBron James combined to score 23 points in that important 12 minutes, but Kevin Garnett's jumper to beat the buzzer killed some of Miami's momentum heading into the fourth quarter.

Boston pulled off a 15-4 run to start the final period, but the Celtics couldn't hold onto a late five-point lead as the game headed to overtime. The game sailed 'over' the total of 178 ½ in regulation (99-99), while Miami had an opportunity to cover late in overtime after grabbing a six-point lead, 114-108. Rondo drilled a pair of three-pointers in the final seconds to assure a Boston cover, but the Celtics dropped to 2-7 the last nine visits to the American Airlines Arena.

From a player props perspective (courtesy of Sportsbook.ag) in Game 2, Rondo easily surpassed the 26 points + assists in the first half alone, while putting 54 combined points and assists. Despite fouling out in overtime, Paul Pierce squeezed past his personal total of 19 by scoring 21 points, but Garnett fell short of his 18 ½ number with 18 points. James cashed on his 44 ½ total of points, rebounds, and assists with a grand total of 51, while Wade finished shy of his 25 point player prop by two points.

Looking ahead to Game 3 in the player props category, Sportsbook.ag listed James at 30 ½ points (shaded to the 'over' at -120), while Rondo's combined points and rebounds are set at 23 ½ (shaded to the 'over' at -140). James has topped the 31-point mark in six of 13 postseason games, including twice in five road contests. The Celtics' guard eclipsed the 23 ½ points + rebounds plateau in five of 13 playoff contests, while grabbing seven or more boards in seven postseason games.

VegasInsider.com's Chris David returns with a look from the totals aspect heading into Friday, "Even though the Celtics and Heat combined for 226 points in Game 2, the opening number on Game 3 is still in the same neighborhood and I'm not surprised. The pace for the first two installments was about the same, but the difference between going 'over' or 'under' was the hot shooting percentages and the eye opening amount of free throws attempted (76). The total opened 179 and quickly jumped to 180 ½ points. With the Celtics sitting as short favorites (-2), the oddsmakers are expecting the winner to get close to 90 points. Normally, most would believe that Miami has a better shot to accomplish the feat but doing so at Boston won't be easy."

With things shifting to New England, David believes that Boston's defense will tighten up, "In the playoffs at TD Garden, the Celtics have surrendered 82.3 PPG albeit against the Hawks and 76ers. And after losing a shootout in overtime, you would have to think Doc Rivers will have Rondo slow down the tempo and work the half-court sets at home. Also, if you're looking for recent playoff trends, Miami has seen the 'under' go 3-2 on the road and it scored 87 and 75 points in Game 3 at New York and Indiana and respectively."

The Heat owns a 9-4 SU and 7-6 ATS record on the road this season off a home victory, while going just 1-1 SU/ATS in the underdog role. On the flip side, the Celtics dominated at TD Garden off an away defeat, posting a 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS mark, including a 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS ledger in the postseason.

Despite being down 2-0, the Celtics are listed as two-point favorites in Game 3, while the total is set at 180. The game tips off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen nationally on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

Heat seek commanding 3-0 series lead Friday

NBA PLAYOFF GAME PREVIEW

No. 2 MIAMI HEAT

at No. 4 BOSTON CELTICS


Eastern Conference Finals
Game 3 - Miami leads series 2-0
Tip-off: Friday, 8:35 p.m. ET
Line: Boston -2, Total: 180

Despite an amazing performance from PG Rajon Rondo in Game 2, his Celtics still lost to the Heat in overtime, setting up a must-win for Boston at home on Friday night.

Rondo scored 44 points (16-of-24 FG) with 10 assists, eight rebounds and three steals in Wednesday’s 115-111 overtime defeat. But the Heat stars shone brightly again as LeBron James scored 34 points and Dwyane Wade pitched in 23, giving the duo a whopping 308 points (61.6 per game) during the team’s current five-game winning streak. They have won these five games by an average of 14.0 PPG (105.8 to 91.8 PPG). The series now moves to TD Garden where the Celtics are 6-1 SU (3-4 ATS) in these playoffs, limiting visitors to just 82.3 PPG. Can the Celtics win at home on Friday? For the answer, connect to NBA Playoffs Best Bets for all the Expert picks for every playoff game during the 2012 postseason. Since May 21, ******* Gary is on a 7-4 ATS run, and is also 7-4 in his Best Bets since May 16.

Miami was able to capture the 2-0 series lead despite making just 44.6% FG and 66.0% FT (31-for-47). The Celtics were whistled for 15 more fouls than the Heat, and dished out only 15 assists on their 40 field goals. Boston shot much better in Game 2 though, making 49.4% FG, 31.3% threes (5-of-16) and 26-of-29 from the foul line (89.7%). The teams each had 42 rebounds, but the Heat held the edge in both points in the paint (40-30) and fast-break points (18-10).

James had another well-rounded stat line in Game 2 with a +10 rating, 10 rebounds (four offensive), seven assists and just one turnover. He imposed his will in the lane by getting to the free-throw line a whopping 24 times. Wade also took the ball to the hole and made 7-of-11 foul shots. He was 8-for-15 from the floor, not bothering to attempt a three-pointer. Two other Miami players also erased poor Game 1 performances with huge nights in Game 3. PG Mario Chalmers was 3-of-9 FG (0-for-6 threes) in Game 1, but he buried 8-of-16 shots (3-of-6 threes) on Wednesday, finishing with 22 points, six assists, four rebounds and two steals. PF Udonis Haslem was scoreless in the series opener, but poured in 13 points with 11 rebounds in Game 2. SF Shane Battier made just 3-of-9 shots, but finished with nine points and a +12 rating. He now has a series-best +28 rating in the two games.

Rondo was the star in Game 2, but he had help. SF Paul Pierce recovered nicely from his 5-for-18 shooting night on Monday, knocking down 21 points on 8-of-19 FG (0-for-5 threes) with six rebounds before fouling out. Although the Celtics are happy to return home, Pierce has not played well at TD Garden in his past five games there, scoring just 14.0 PPG on 36.5% FG (3-of-13 threes) in 38.4 MPG. PF Kevin Garnett had an off-night in Game 2 (6-for-18 FG), but he has been a beast at home in the playoffs with 20.4 PPG (53.2% FG) and 10.6 RPG. SG Ray Allen more than doubled his Game 1 output (6 points on 1-of-7 FG) with 13 points (5-of-11 FG) and five rebounds on Wednesday. PF Brandon Bass also stepped up his game on Wednesday with eight points (2-of-4 FG, 4-of-4 FT) and 10 rebounds, which is eight more than he grabbed in Game 1. Boston’s bench was pretty worthless in Game 2, combining for just seven points and five rebounds in 49 minutes.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Friday, June 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 8:30 PM ET Boston -2.5 500

Boston - Under 180.5 500

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WNBA

Friday, June 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Minnesota - 7:00 PM ET Connecticut +1.5 500

Connecticut - Over 163.5 500

Phoenix - 8:00 PM ET San Antonio -9.5 500

San Antonio - Under 172.5 500

Washington - 8:30 PM ET Chicago -11 500

Chicago - Over 142.5 500

Tulsa - 10:00 PM ET Tulsa +9.5 500

Seattle - Under 144.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Thunder And Spurs Meet For Game 4

What did we learn from the Oklahoma City Thunder’s Game 3, 102-82 streak-ending blowout of the San Antonio Spurs?

First and foremost, defense wins championships. Oklahoma City tried to outscore the Spurs in the first two games of the series and found itself staring at an unsightly 2-0 deficit. We knew Scott Brooks had to make defensive adjustments in order to slow down the Spurs. Who would have thought the move by Brooks to shift defensive specialist Thabo Sefolosha over to check Tony Parker would have had such a definitive impact on Game 3 and the series?

Sefolosha’s defense (6 steals) was key to the Thunder holding the Spurs to a playoff low 82 points. His ability to slow down Parker and wreak havoc on the Spurs' vaunted pick-and-roll also freed up Russell Westbrook, who arguably played his best defensive game in recent memory. Westbrook (4 steals) utilized his length and quickness on the defensive end and reminded many of the skill set that earned him Defensive Player of the Year his final season at UCLA.

The entire Thunder roster committed to defending better and that mindset is why the Western Conference Finals is now a series.

For one glorious night inside the Chesapeake Energy Arena, the Thunder remembered they are the up and coming power many predicted to win the NBA Championship. It appeared the Thunder, especially Westbrook, made a conscious decision to...play like the Spurs! Unselfish team basketball was the Game 3 theme and if Oklahoma City decides to play team basketball moving forward, this series will take a dramatic turn.

The Thunder remain 3½-point favorites on the Don Best odds screen with the total of 202½.

Let’s call it what it is. The Spurs were due for a subpar performance. San Antonio had played at such a high level for such an extended period of time, and was bound to eventually lose a basketball game. Not taking anything away from the Thunder and how well they performed in Game 3, San Antonio is still the team to beat. Who better to make in-series adjustments than Gregg Popovich? Who better to execute the coach’s game plan than Parker?

Expect the Spurs to return to their efficient offense featuring ball movement and unselfish play, which was prominently on display during their 20-game win streak. The Spurs cannot afford to turn the ball over vs. the Thunder 21 times and hope to stay close in Game 4. It will be safe to assume that Popovich and his Spurs have heard their wake up call loud and clear.

The 'over' is 4-2 in the six meetings this season; look for an up-tempo game Saturday in Oklahoma City.

[StarDust Bum]

Game 4, Spurs-Thunder

June 1, 2012

The Western Conference Finals took an interesting turn as the home team held serve for the third consecutive game in Oklahoma City's blowout of San Antonio. Not only did the Thunder hand the Spurs their first loss in 21 games, but OKC proved it is ready to extend this series at least back to San Antonio. The Game 3 number (Oklahoma City -4) told us everything, as the Thunder helped backers in a 102-82 rout of the Spurs, while easily staying 'under' the inflated total of 206.

After the two teams combined for 231 points in San Antonio's 11-point victory in Game 2, Oklahoma City's defense clamped down by holding Gregg Popovich's club to exactly 41 points in each half of Game 3. The Spurs overcame an early 8-0 deficit to eventually lead after the first quarter, 24-22, thus killing OKC (-2) bets in the opening period. However, the Thunder roared back in the second quarter to cover the first half number of -3 by outscoring the Spurs, 32-17 to take a 54-41 advantage at the intermission.

One of the keys to Oklahoma City's success on Thursday was scoring help past the usual production from Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden. The Thunder received unexpected contributions from defensive specialists Thabo Sefolosha (19 points) and Serge Ibaka (14 points), while OKC limited San Antonio to 39.5% shooting from the field. The trio of Durant, Westbrook, and Harden scored just 47 points combined, but another key to OKC's success is its consistency from the free throw line (16-for-17).

It's an unrealistic thought to believe Tony Parker would duplicate his Game 2 scoring line of 34 points on 16-for-21 shooting from the floor again in Game 3, as the Spurs' All-Star converted just six field goals en route to 16 points on Thursday. Tim Duncan's struggles continued in Game 3 by shooting just 5-for-15 from the field, dropping the future Hall-of-Famer to 7-for 26 from the floor the last two games.

Oklahoma City improved to 6-0 SU and 3-3 ATS at home in the playoffs, while winning 12 of its previous 15 postseason contests at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Scott Brooks' team owned a 21-6 SU and 12-15 ATS home record off a home victory this season, but is 4-9 ATS the last 13 games in this situation since March 9. The win by the Thunder over the Spurs was only the second in the previous 12 meetings, while moving to 3-5 SU/ATS at home against San Antonio since relocating from Seattle in 2008.

The last time the Spurs lost a game prior to Game 3 was against the Lakers without Kobe Bryant at home on April 11. During San Antonio's 20-game winning streak, the Spurs cashed for backers on 17 occasions, while eclipsing the 100-point mark 18 times. However, it was clear on Thursday that when the Spurs are losing by double-digits, Popovich pulls the plug as evidenced by six defeats this season by 10 points or more.

The Spurs have proven to get things back on track after a loss this season by posting a 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS record the last nine games off a setback. San Antonio has cashed in five of its past six opportunities on the road off a loss, including outright victories at Orlando, Denver, and Memphis.

VegasInsider.com's Chris David gives some perspective on the line movement for Saturday's contest, "If you bet strictly on the odds and line moves, then the play in Game 4 is San Antonio. "Why? The number opened 4 for Saturday's game and has been hit down to 3 at most shops, with a couple offshore outfits still holding 3 ½. Yet, when you check out any betting trend on this matchup, the public is backing OKC, yet the number is going in the opposite direction, which tells you where the smart money is. I'm fully aware that the sharps don't always win, but they do take advantage of value and they come ahead in the end."

The favorites have dominated recently in the postseason, as David says that can be a solid reason to go with OKC, "If you want to go with current form and playoff trends, then you can back up your rationale on the Thunder. This year's playoffs at least the last two rounds have been all about the favorites. The last healthy underdog to win outright came in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference semifinals when Indiana upset Miami on the road. With that being said, OKC is the play and it's hard to argue against a team that is 6-0 at home in the playoffs. However, you could be a little hesitant to back the Thunder since they're just 3-3 ATS during this span and three of the wins came by three points or less."

David notes the Spurs are 4-1 to the 'under' away from the AT&T Center in the postseason, but the total is a tough call in Game 4, "I normally have a good feel on totals but this is a pass for me for a few reasons. You do get some value in the line drop but you don't know what you're going to get from the Spurs if the game gets out of control again. Pop rested his players and will probably do the same if they trailed by double digits, which means it turns into a 3-point shooting barrage from his bench. If they hit, you got a shot, otherwise you're most likely looking at an 'under' winner."

The Thunder is set as 3 ½-point favorites in Game 4, while the total sits at 202 ½. The game tips off at 8:30 PM EST from Chesapeake Energy Arena and will be televised nationally on TNT.

[StarDust Bum]

Thunder try to even up West Finals on Saturday

NBA PLAYOFF GAME PREVIEW

No. 1 SAN ANTONIO SPURS

at No. 2 OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER


Western Conference Finals
Game 4 - San Antonio leads series 2-1
Tip-off: Saturday, 8:35 p.m. ET
Line: Oklahoma City -3½, Total: 201½

After ending the Spurs win streak at 20 games with a 20-point drubbing on Thursday, the Thunder look to tie up the Western Conference Finals at two games apiece on Saturday night.

There were many heroes for Oklahoma City in its 102-82 crushing of the Spurs (their first loss since April 11) in Game 3, but the most unlikely of stars was SG Thabo Sefolosha who scored 19 points with six rebounds and six steals. His defense was a big reason why the Spurs shot 39.5% FG (38% on two-point tries) and committed 21 turnovers. The Thunder nailed 46% of their field-goal attempts and outscored their opponent by 20 points in the paint (44 to 24) and 18-7 on fast-break points. Now the Spurs are in the unfamiliar territory of following an SU loss, but they have been just fine in this scenario this season, going 12-4 (11-5 ATS), outscoring these teams by 7.5 PPG (102.3 to 94.8). Can the Thunder even up this series on Saturday? For the answer, connect to NBA Playoffs Best Bets for all the Expert picks for every playoff game during the 2012 postseason. Since May 18, ******* Dave is on a 12-5-1 ATS run, including 6-1-1 in his Best Bets.

Oklahoma City improved to 32-7 SU at Chesapeake Energy Arena, but is just 20-19 ATS at home. The Spurs snapped a nine-game road win streak, but are still an impressive 26-12 SU (22-15-1 ATS) away from home this season. And even with Tuesday’s loss, San Antonio is still 10-2 (8-4 ATS) in the past 12 meetings with the Thunder, including 5-2 (SU and ATS) at Oklahoma City.

After scoring 120 points in Game 2, the Spurs were held to 41 in each half as no player surpassed 16 points. San Antonio’s starting frontcourt of C Tim Duncan, PF Boris Diaw and SF Kawhi Leonard combined for a mere 14 points on 6-of-20 FG in 55 minutes of action. Duncan had his second straight off-shooting night (5-for-15 FG), and is now 7-of-26 (26.9%) in the past two games. Although he tallied five blocks, Duncan pulled down only two rebounds in his 26 minutes of action and posted a minus-16 rating. Leonard posted a double-double in Game 2 (18 points, 10 rebounds), but was limited to just 15 minutes on Thursday, scoring two points with six rebounds. PG Tony Parker, who was incredible in Game 2 (34 points on 16-of-21 FG) shot well again in Game 3 (6-of-12 FG, 2-of-4 threes), but posted a minus-13 rating with five turnovers and just four assists. SG Manu Ginobili scored 23.0 PPG on 60% FG (15-of-25 FG) in Games 1-2, but he tallied just eight points on 1-of-5 FG with four turnovers on Thursday. The only two players that thrived on the offensive end of the floor were a pair of reserves. SG Stephen Jackson had a team-high-tying 16 points on 6-of-7 FG (4-of-5 threes) and DeJuan Blair had 10 points (5-of-7 FG) and six rebounds in just 10 minutes on the court.

Oklahoma City saw a lot more balanced scoring in Game 3 as 11 different players made field goals. Five reached double-figures led by Kevin Durant’s 22 points on 8-of-17 FG (0-for-4 threes). The Thunder star also had six rebounds and five assists, while posting a +18 rating. PG Russell Westbrook had been averaging 23.7 PPG in the 2012 playoffs entering Thursday, but finished Game 3 with a mere 10 points on 5-of-15 shooting. But he didn’t let his misses affect other areas, piling up nine assists, seven rebounds, four steals, two blocks and a game-high +29 rating. SG James Harden added 15 points and a +19 rating off the bench and PF Serge Ibaka posted a +22 rating with 14 points, three blocks and two steals to make up for his paltry three rebounds. C Kendrick Perkins led his team with eight boards and also had three blocks. After posting a game-low minus-14 rating in Game 2, Perkins turned that around with a strong +13 rating in his 23 minutes on Thursday.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Saturday, June 2

Game Score Status Pick Amount

San Antonio - 8:30 PM ET Oklahoma City -3 500

Oklahoma City - Over 202.5 500


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WNBA

Saturday, June 2

Game Score Status Pick Amount

New York - 7:00 PM ET Indiana -11 500

Indiana - Under 152 500

Chicago - 7:00 PM ET Atlanta -4.5 500

Atlanta - Under 155 500

[StarDust Bum]

Celtics And Heat Meet In Game 4 Of The ECF

Boston refused to be swept in the Eastern Conference Finals in a Game 3 victory over Miami, 101-91. Despite a late rally from the Heat, Friday night’s win for the Celtics was never really in doubt and now Game 4 NBA betting action approaches.

Miami Heat at Boston Celtics – Sunday, 8:30 p.m. (ET) on ESPN

The TD Garden has been kind to the C’s where they are 7-1 straight up in the postseason and these teams will meet again on Boston’s home floor. However, the Celtics are just 4-4 against the spread in those eight playoff contests.

Talk about some interesting numbers from Game 3. Boston shot 50 percent from the field, made 38 field goals, and shot 29.4 percent from three-point range. Miami shot 49.4 percent from the field, made 38 field goals, and shot 29.4 percent from beyond the arc. How did the Celtics, favored by 2½, score a 10-point victory?

The exact difference came with the Heat going just 10-for-20 from the free throw line.

Sunday’s matchup opened with the C’s at -1 but now the line has shifted toward the Heat, now a 1-point road favorite on the Don Best odds screen. The total is 180½.

Game 1 did fall ‘under’ the total but that was followed up by two straight games ‘over’ the number. All three meetings in this series have had a total of 178 or 178½ thus far.

At this point, each team is well familiar with the other and they certainly have one thing in common; their bench play is pretty weak. That is why it was almost monumental for the Celtics to see G Keyon Dooling and F Marquis Daniels combine for 16 points in Game 3, with Daniels being particularly impressive.

Both Miami and Boston need their reserve players to contribute. Two guys going for 16 points may not sound like much, but that is all these squads need to add to the great play of their stars.

LeBron James has been outstanding averaging 33 points, 5 dishes, and 10 rebounds in the ECF. Rajon Rondo continues to prove he is a top point guard in the NBA and Kevin Garnett is really having a special postseason at the age of 36.

On a final note for Sunday’s battle, the Boston Celtics were the worst rebounding team in the entire Association during the regular season. Game 1 of the ECF saw the Heat win the rebounding war, 48-33.

However, with Chris Bosh still out the C’s may have figured how to get the advantage on the boards. Game 2 was a tie at 42, which
had to go to overtime to decide the outcome, and the Celtics outrebounded the Heat, 44-32, on Friday night in their victory.

Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs – Monday, 9:00 p.m. (ET) on TNT

The Spurs remarkable 20-game winning streak came to an end as the Thunder made a big statement in Game 3, pounding San Antonio, 102-82. This was no surprise to oddsmakers, however, as OKC was favored by four. Game 4 on Saturday is similar as the Thunder are -3½.

Game 5 on Monday will shift back to San Antonio and it remains to be seen whether SA will get back on track or if OKC will tie the Western Conference Finals up at 2-2.

[StarDust Bum]

Boston tries to even series with Heat on Sunday

NBA PLAYOFF GAME PREVIEW

No. 2 MIAMI HEAT

at No. 4 BOSTON CELTICS


Eastern Conference Finals
Game 4 - Miami leads series 2-1
Tip-off: Sunday, 8:35 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -1½, Total: 180

The Celtics posted an impressive win over the Heat on Friday, and will look to repeat the feat Sunday night to tie up the Eastern Conference Finals.

Boston’s Big Three of Rajon Rondo (21 points, 10 assists), Kevin Garnett (24 points, 11 rebounds) and Paul Pierce (23 points) carried their team to a 22-point lead after three quarters and held on for the 101-91 victory. After getting to the free-throw line 47 times in Game 2, Miami attempted only 20 foul shots in Game 3, making just 10 of those attempts. The Heat dynamic duo of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade combined for 52 points, but made just 1-of-5 free throws, a huge dropoff from their combined 25-for-35 FT in Game 3. Can the Celtics even up the series on Sunday night? For the answer, connect to NBA Playoffs Best Bets for all the Expert picks for every playoff game during the 2012 postseason. Since May 18, ******* Dave is on a 13-5-1 ATS (72.2%) run, including 6-1-1 in his Best Bets.

Boston owned the lane on Friday with a 58-46 points-in-the-paint advantage, while outrebounding Miami 44-32. Both teams shot similarly well from the floor as the Celtics were 38-for-76 FG (5-of-17 threes) and the Heat were 38-for-77 FG (also 5-for-17 threes). For the series, Miami has 99.7 PPG on 48% FG (29% threes), while Boston has 97.0 PPG on 46% FG (30% threes).

James and Wade continue to carry the offense with a combined 360 points in the past six games. James has 33.3 PPG (53% FG), 10.3 RPG and 5.0 APG in the East Finals, but he has made just 3-of-13 threes and 25-of-38 free throws (65.8%). Wade has 21.0 PPG (52% FG), 5.0 APG and 4.3 RPG in the series versus Boston, but he failed to get to the foul line even once in the Game 3 loss. PG Mario Chalmers had his second straight strong performance on Friday with 14 points (5-of-11 FG) and six assists. This followed up his 22 points and six assists in Game 2. The biggest disappointment on Friday was the offense of starting SF Shane Battier who didn’t score a single point (0-for-6 FG, 0-for-4 threes) with zero steals and zero blocks in 38 minutes of action. Battier had a series-best +28 rating in Games 1-2, but was a minus-1 for Game 3. PF Udonis Haslem tallied a double-double in Game 2 (13 points, 11 rebounds), but he was held to three points, six rebounds and a game-worst minus-12 rating in Game 3. SG Mike Miller was one of four Heat players to eclipse four points on Friday as he scored 11 points on 4-of-8 FG (3-of-6 threes) and also pulled down six rebounds.

Rondo has logged 43+ minutes in five straight playoff games, and is averaging a whopping 27.0 PPG (55% FG), 9.0 APG and 7.7 RPG in this series. Garnett’s 10-of-16 FG performance on Friday was quite encouraging after he posted a dreadful 6-for-18 shooting night in Game 2. Pierce has not found his shot yet this series, as his 7-for-21 FG (2-of-6 threes) in Game 3, drops his series shooting percentages to 34.5% FG and 26.7% threes (4-of-15). SG Ray Allen has posted back-to-back strong games though, averaging 11.5 PPG on 9-of-19 FG with 5.0 RPG. Despite his bad ankle, Allen has a +32 rating over his past three home games. Boston’s bench had just seven points and five rebounds in Game 2, but contributed much more in Game 3 with 19 points and 14 rebounds. The two best reserves were SG Marquis Daniels (nine points, five rebounds, +14 rating) and PG Keyon Dooling (seven points, four rebounds, +10 rating).

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, June 3

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 8:30 PM ET Boston +1 500

Boston - Over 180 500

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Sunday, June 3

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Washington - 3:00 PM ET Washington +11.5 500
Connecticut - Under 149 500

Indiana - 6:00 PM ET Indiana -4 500
New York - Over 154 500

Tulsa - 6:00 PM ET Phoenix -7 500
Phoenix - Under 167 500

San Antonio - 7:00 PM ET Minnesota -12 500
Minnesota - Under 156.5 500

Seattle - 8:30 PM ET Los Angeles -6.5 500
Los Angeles - Under 143.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Game 5, Spurs vs. Thunder

June 4, 2012

After winning 20 straight and looking unbeatable, San Antonio has dropped back-to-back games and is now looking for answers. The Spurs were humbled not once but twice in Oklahoma City, losing by 20 points (82-102) in Game 3 on Thursday before falling by (103-109) on Saturday in Game 4.

The Spurs packed it in on Thursday after falling behind by double digits and you almost saw the same script happen on Saturday as well. Oklahoma City took advantage of another bad second quarter (17 points) by the Spurs and built a comfortable lead at the break. Kevin Durant was the hero for OKC, finishing with a game-high 36 points, which included 16 straight points during the team’s fourth quarter surge that put San Antonio away for good.

While Durant closed for the Thunder, it was a surprising effort from their defensive-minded frontcourt that put them ahead early. Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins and Nick Collison shot a combined 22-of-25 from the floor and filled up the stat sheet with 49 points, 16 rebounds and four blocks. Ibaka, known for his shot blocking and dunks, was a perfect 11-for-11 from the field. If it wasn’t for that trio, San Antonio could easily be up 3-1, especially when Russell Westbrook and James Harden shoot a combined 6-of-23 and finish with 18 points.

Outside of the second quarter, San Antonio played a solid game and shot 50 percent from the floor, which include a 48 percent (11-of-23) clip from 3-point land. Unfortunately for the Spurs, Tony Parker managed just 15 points and four assists. In the two wins, Parker averaged 26 points and seven assists but just 14 points and four assists in the losses.

Despite dropping two straight to OKC, oddsmakers haven’t budged much on the line for tonight. San Antonio was giving 4 ½ and 5 ½-points in the first two games of this series and the number is sitting at 5 for Game 5.

San Antonio lost back-to-back games on four different occasions during the regular season and the last time it occurred was on Apr. 11 when the Lakers embarrassed the Spurs 98-84 without Kobe Bryant. After that setback, the Spurs went on to win 20 straight and bettors should be aware that they haven’t suffered three consecutive setbacks this season.

With that being said, is there a reason to back Oklahoma City tonight for the win, perhaps the cover?

VegasInsider.com handicapper Kevin Rogers believes in OKC’s momentum. “The Thunder threw away a nine-point lead in the series opener, while allowing 39 points in the final quarter of that defeat. OKC controlled the tempo in both home contests, as San Antonio was pretty much playing from behind in the majority of the action from Chesapeake Energy Arena,” explained Rogers.

“The frontcourt of the Thunder stepped up big time in Game 4, trying to ease the load off the shoulders of Durant, Westbrook, and Harden. San Antonio needs to find its depth heading into tonight, while Parker tries to find his scoring touch from Game 2 after getting held in check on Saturday.”

Parker has been the catalyst for San Antonio all season and he’s come up bigger at home. Sportsbook.ag has a proposition listed on his point total tonight, which is set at 21 (Over -125). Those expecting another big game from Durant can get down on his total points of 29.

OKC does have momentum and confidence heading into this matchup but will that be enough. The Thunder have gone 3-3 (4-2 ATS) on the road in the playoffs and tonight’s venue is arguably the toughest in the league.

The Spurs tied for the best record at home (28-5) in the regular season and that trend carried over into the playoffs. The club has gone 6-0 straight up and 5-1 against the spread in the postseason from AT&T Center, four of the wins by double digits albeit against the Jazz and Clippers.

I believe we learned quickly that Oklahoma City isn’t in the same class as Los Angeles or Utah, yet everybody was writing the Thunder off after the first two games, including myself.

Prior to Game 1, the Spurs were listed as 1/2 favorites (Bet $200 to win $100) over the Thunder in the best-of-seven series. After building a 2-0 lead, they were listed as 1/6 favorites (Bet $600 to win $100) and the takeback on OKC was at 5/1 (Bet $100 to win $500). With the series knotted at 2-2, the number has reverted back to the opening price of San Antonio minus-200.

Total players have seen the ‘over/under’ go 2-2 in the first four games and the outcomes have been attributed to both good and bad shooting. The two games played in OKC didn’t have an up-tempo pace and both teams only combined for 32 and 37 free throws compared to 48 and 71 attempts in the first two games played in San Antonio.

The number on Game 2 was sent out at 204 and was immediately dropped to 202.San Antonio has scored 100-plus points in each of its six playoff games at home, which could make the team total (103 points) on the Spurs look attractive.

Bettors who play the halves have seen the ‘under’ go 4-0 in the first-half of the four games, while the ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the second-half.

If you’re looking for a consistent prop bet in this series, then check out the total number of 3-pointers made by both the Thunder and Spurs. Sportsbook.ag has the number set at 15 (Over -125) and while that seems high, it’s been cashing. The first four games have seen 17, 19, 17 and 16 shots hit from downtown. When you consider that San Antonio takes close to 25 bombs a game, you know you’re going to have a chance to cash based on the tendencies.

TNT will provide national coverage at 9:00 p.m. ET.

Game 6 is slated for Wednesday from Oklahoma City.