The Bum's March Madness All You Need To Know And Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

CBB | SAINT LOUIS at MEMPHIS
Play Against - Neutral court teams (MEMPHIS) a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG), after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half
59-26 since 1997. ( 69.4% | 30.4 units )
5-6 this year. ( 45.5% | -1.6 units )
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CBB | ST BONAVENTURE at FLORIDA ST
Play Against - Neutral court teams (FLORIDA ST) good shooting team (45-47.5%) against an good defensive team (40-42.5%), average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's)
127-75 since 1997. ( 62.9% | 46.6 units )
6-5 this year. ( 54.5% | -0.3 units )
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CBB | PURDUE at ST MARYS-CA
Play Against - Neutral Court favorites vs. the 1rst half line (ST MARYS-CA) after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in March games
92-47 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.2% | 40.3 units )
13-7 this year. ( 65.0% | 5.3 units )

[StarDust Bum]

Record:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

03/15/12 16-*10-*0 61.54% +*2500 Detail
03/14/12 27-*19-*0 58.70% +*3050 Detail
03/13/12 21-*18-*1 53.85% +*600 Detail

Totals 64-*47-*1 57.66% +6150

[StarDust Bum]

NCAA previews & picks: Friday's South Region action

No. 2 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 15 Lehigh Mountain Hawks (+12, 148)

THE STORY: Duke earned a No. 2 seed after reaching the semifinals of the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament, suffering a narrow defeat against tourney champ Florida State despite the absence of injured forward Ryan Kelly. No. 15 seed Lehigh comes in riding an eight-game winning streak, capped by an 82-77 victory over Bucknell in the finals of the Patriot League tourney. Both teams played games against Michigan State and St. John's this season, with the Mountain Hawks losing to both on the road by single digits and the Blue Devils posting a pair of close victories, one on a neutral court and one at home.

Pick: Duke

No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 10 Xavier Musketeers (+2.5, 124.5)

THE STORY: No. 7 seed Notre Dame rebounded from a rough start to finish third in the Big East during the regular season, following with a trip to the semifinals of the conference tourney. Xavier, though considered one of the country's most disappointing teams, quietly played its way back into the NCAA tournament field with a solid 12-7 finish that included a run to the Atlantic 10 tournament final. The 10th-seeded Musketeers defeated Cincinnati and Georgia by double digits earlier this season, while the Fighting Irish lost to both. Notre Dame leads the all-time series with Xavier, 15-3, including an 83-71 win when the schools last met in the first round of the 2001 NCAA tournament.

Pick: Notre Dame

[StarDust Bum]

NCAA previews & picks: Friday's East Region action

No. 6 Cincinnati Bearcats vs. No. 11 Texas Longhorns (+2, 129.5)

THE STORY: Cincinnati is doing its best to be remembered for more than just an early-December brawl with cross-town rival Xavier. Coming off their most successful Big East season, the sixth-seeded Bearcats open the NCAA tournament with a Round of 64 matchup against 11th-seeded Texas in Nashville. The Bearcats, who lost to Louisville in the Big East tournament championship game, have reached the NCAA tournament in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2004-2005. The Longhorns, on the other hand, were one of the last teams to receive an at-large bid, which extended their streak to 14 straight NCAA tournament appearances. The winner will face either No. 3 seed Florida State or 14th-seeded St. Bonaventure on Sunday.

Pick: Cincinnati

No. 3 Florida State Seminoles vs. No. 14 Bonaventure Bonnies (+6, 129.5)

THE STORY: After winning its first-ever ACC tournament title, third-seeded Florida State begins what it hopes is a deep NCAA tournament run in the Round of 64 against 14th-seeded St. Bonaventure in Nashville. This is the school-record fourth straight NCAA tournament appearance for the Seminoles, who advanced to the Sweet 16 last season for the first time since 1993. St. Bonaventure, meanwhile, is making its sixth NCAA tournament appearance and first since 2000 after winning the Atlantic-10 tournament for the first time. The winner faces either sixth-seeded Cincinnati or No. 11 seed Texas on Sunday.

Pick: St. Bonaventure

[StarDust Bum]

NCAA previews & picks: Friday's West Region action

No. 7 Florida Gators vs. No. 10 Virginia Cavaliers (+3.5, 121)

THE STORY: Opposing styles will clash when seventh seeded Florida and its dynamic backcourt take on grind-it-out Virginia in a second-round game in the West Regional in Omaha. Both teams have stumbled into the postseason. The Cavaliers are making their first appearance in the NCAA tournament since 2007, when they advanced to the second round. It's Virginia's 17th appearance, and the Cavaliers are looking for their third trip to the Final Four (1981, 1984). The Gators have made three Final Fours and won two national titles under coach Billy Donovan, who is 25-9 in the NCAA tournament. The teams have met once before when Virginia beat Florida in the semifinals of the 1992 NIT.

Pick: Virginia

No. 2 Missouri Tigers vs. No. 15 Norfolk State Spartans (+21, 144.5)

THE STORY: Denied a No. 1 seed despite winning the Big 12 tournament and sent to the West region rather than playing in the Midwest region in nearby St. Louis, second seeded Missouri opens its quest for its first trip to the Final Four against MEAC tournament champion Norfolk State in Omaha, Neb. The Spartans, meanwhile, have already reached a milestone by making the NCAA tournament field for the first time. Missouri is in the tournament for the fourth consecutive year and the 25th overall but has never advanced past the Elite Eight. It will mark the first meeting between the teams.

Pick: Missouri

No. 8 Memphis Tigers vs. No. 9 Saint Louis Billikens (+3, 129.5)

THE STORY: Once considered a bubble team, Memphis worked its way up to a No. 8 seed in the West Regional by rolling through its last seven games by an average of 22.7 points, including an 83-57 rout of Marshall in the Conference USA title game. Ninth-seeded Saint Louis, a former league rival of the Tigers, finished second in the Atlantic 10 during the regular season before suffering a 71-64 loss to Xavier in the semifinals of the A-10 tournament. The Tigers own a 32-25 lead in the all-time series, but the teams have not met since the Billikens left Conference USA after the 2004-05 season.

Pick: Saint Louis

No. 1 Michigan State Spartans vs. LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds (+12, 154.5)

THE STORY: Top-seeded Michigan State split the Big Ten's regular season crown and followed with a run to the conference tournament title, capped by a 68-64 victory over rival Ohio State on Sunday. LIU Brooklyn roars into the Round of 64 game after claiming the Northeast Conference title in the regular season and crushing Robert Morris 90-73 in Wednesday's tournament final. Penn State was the teams' lone common opponent, with the Spartans topping the Nittany Lions at home 77-57 and the Blackbirds suffering a 77-68 defeat on the road in November. Michigan State and Brooklyn will meet for the first time since 1941 in the West Regional.

Pick: LIU Brooklyn

[StarDust Bum]

68 things bettors should know about the field of 68

Before you blindly pencil in Kentucky to win the national championship, remember these two things:

1. The Wildcats, the No. 1 overall seed and clear-cut favorite to win the NCAA tournament, have the worst record against the spread (12-20-1) of any team in the field of 68.

2. Since 1998, only two teams have won the national championship with a losing record against the spread: 2009 North Carolina (17-19 ATS) and 2004 UConn (16-18-1 ATS).

It’s easy to see why John Calipari’s young, but extremely talented bunch struggled to live up to the betting market’s expectations. The Wildcats were favored by a total of 532.5 points this year, an average of 16.3 points per game. No other team was favored by more than North Carolina’s 482 points. Kentucky was favored by 20 or more points nine times.

But the gap between the Wildcats and the rest of the field has narrowed, at least in oddsmakers’ eyes. The Las Vegas Hotel & Casino moved Kentucky from +180 (9/5) to +200 (2/1) after Big Blue slipped up against Vanderbilt in the SEC championship game. The Cats’ odds are even a little higher offshore.

Now, that we’ve scientifically proven without a doubt that Kentucky is not winning the national title, here’s everything else bettors should know to successfully handicap the madness.

Most NBA Talent

(No. of Top 100 2012 NBA Draft prospects according to DraftExpress.com)

3. Kentucky: Anthony Davis (1) Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (2), Terrence Jones (11), Doron Lamb (35), Marcus Teague (38), Darius Miller (88).

4. North Carolina: Harrison Barnes (6), John Henson (9), Tyler Zeller (10), Kendall Marshall (19), James McAdoo (26), Reggie Bullock (65).

5. Kansas: Thomas Robinson (3), Tyshawn Taylor (31), Jeff Withey (94), Elijah Johnson (76)

6. Vanderbilt: Jeff Taylor (20), Festus Ezeli (34), John Jenkins (46)

7. UConn: Andre Drummond (4), Jeremy Lamb (12), Alex Oriakhi (91)

Best, Worst, Most & Least

8. Xavier has been the best bet in the NCAA tournament, going 10-3-1 ATS since 2005.

9. Gonzaga has been the worst best in the NCAA tournament, going 4-8 ATS since 2005.

10. New Mexico (22-8 ATS) has been the best bet in college basketball. No team has covered the spread in more than 24 games in a season since at least 1998.

11. Kentucky, as noted above, has the worst record against the spread of any team in the field. Duke, at 13-20 against the number, is next.

12. Lehigh is best free-throw shooting team at 77.6 percent.

13. Cincinnati is the worst free-throw shooting team at 64.1 percent.

14. North Carolina is by far the best rebounding team, dominating teams on the glass by average of 10.8 rebounds per game. No other team in the field has a rebounding margin more than 8.7 (New Mexico State).

15. Virginia Commonwealth is the worst rebounding team. The Rams were outrebounded by 1.5 per game.

16. Mississippi Valley State commits the most fouls per game at 20.5. Davidson is a close second, committing 20.3 fouls per game.

17. Notre Dame commits the fewest fouls per game at 13.8.

18. Florida makes the most 3-pointers per game (9.9)

19. Alabama makes the fewest 3-pointers per game (4.0).

20. Kentucky has the highest scoring margin, beating opponents by an average of 19.2 points. North Carolina (16.1), Ohio State (16.1), Wichita State (15.3) and Syracuse (14.7) are next.

21. Western Kentucky has the worst scoring margin (-2.9).

22. Western Kentucky received the least amount of respect from oddsmakers. The Hilltoppers were an underdog by a total of 135 points this season, the most of any team in the field.

23. Florida produced the highest percentage of overs. Eighteen of 28 games (64.28%) involving the Gators eclipsed the total. Duke was next at 20/12, over/under (62.5%).

24. Gonzaga produced the highest percentage of unders. Twenty-one of 29 games (72.4%) involving the Zags stayed under the total. Notre Dame was next at 9/18 over/under (66.6%).

25. Iona averages the most points 83.3.

26. South Florida scores the least at 59.2.

27. Wisconsin allows the fewest points (52.9)

28. Iona allows the most points (72.6).

29. Purdue turns the ball over the least (8.7).

30. Florida State turns the ball over the most (16.3).

31. Memphis and Xavier have each produced 10 overs in NCAA tournament play over the last six years, the most of any team in the field.

32. Duke has produced the most unders in NCAA tournament play over the last six years, the most of any team in the field.

6 Notable Strength-of-Schedule Mismatches
(Rankings according Kenpom.com)

33. South Dakota State (218) vs. Baylor (16)

34. Cincinnati (63) vs. Texas (11)

35. Gonzaga (137) vs. West Virginia (25)

36. Davidson (210) vs. Louisville (18)

37. Murray State (249) vs. Colorado State (62)

38. Saint Mary’s (168) vs. Purdue (14)

5 teams not a full strength

39. Duke: The Blue Devils might be without starting forward and third-leading scorer Ryan Kelly (foot) for at least their opening game against Lehigh.

40. Long Beach State: The 49ers managed to win their conference tournament without second-leading scorer Larry Anderson (knee). Anderson is questionable to play Thursday against New Mexico.

41. North Carolina: The Tar Heels played without Jon Henson (wrist) for most of the ACC tournament. It seems likely that Roy Williams would rest his team’s leading rebounder and third-leading scorer for at least their opener against the Lamar-Vermont winner.

42. Indiana: The Hoosiers lost point guard Verdell Jones to an ACL injury in the Big Ten tournament.

43. Virginia: A rash of injuries has left the Cavs with just seven scholarship players. Starting shooting guard Joe Harris, one of the seven, has been battling a bad wrist for the latter half of the season.

Odds & Ends

44. Will a No. 1 seed win the NCAA tournament? Yes -123 / No +105 (PinnacleSports.com)

45. Instead of taking just Kentucky to win the tournament at 2/1, you might as well take the entire SEC at the same odds at Sportsbetting.ag.

46. Florida State is 33-19-1 ATS in March under coach Leonard Hamilton.

47. Underdogs went 1787-1733-73 ATS through the conference tournaments.

48. There were 1,769 overs and 1,788 unders through the conference tournaments.

49. Mississippi Valley State (2) and Long Beach State (3) had the toughest non-conference strength of schedules, according Kenpon.com.

50. Cincinnati had the easiest non-conference schedule (338).

51. Belmont and Montana enter the tournament on the longest winning streaks at 14.

52. No team is hotter than Memphis, though. The Tigers roared through the final stretch of their schedule, winning seven straight games by double figures.

53. The biggest snub of the NCAA tournament field – Play-by-play man Gus Johnson will not be calling any games this season. Johnson and CBS parted ways last year.

54. As of Tuesday, Baylor -7.5 (77%) was the top consensus pick among Covers users for second-round games.

DP’s best 2nd-round bets

55. Colorado St +4
56. New Mexico -4
57. Vanderbilt -6.5
58. Purdue -1
59. Missouri/Norfolk State Over 144.5
60. Michigan -6
61. UConn -1.5

DP’s Final Four

62. Vanderbilt
63. Michigan State
64. Kentucky
65. North Carolina

DP’s Final Two

66. Michigan State
67. North Carolina

DP’s National Champion

68. Michigan State

[StarDust Bum]

NCAA previews & picks: Friday's Midwest Region action

No. 6 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 11 North Carolina State Wolfpack (-2.5, 137)

THE STORY: After sitting on the NCAA tournament bubble for several weeks, the 11th-seeded Wolfpack are riding a wave of momentum heading into their second-round matchup with sixth seeded San Diego State. The Wolfpack have won four of their last five games and gave North Carolina a scare before losing 69-67 in the ACC semifinals. San Diego State, which shared the Mountain West regular-season title, returns to the NCAA tournament for the third straight year. The teams share one common opponent in Elon from the Southern Conference. San Diego State won 81-55, and North Carolina State won 82-67. The winner will play the winner of third-seeded Georgetown and 14th-seeded Belmont on Sunday in a third-round game.

Pick: San Diego State

No. 8 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide (-1.5, 132)

THE STORY: It might be difficult to find a first-round game with opponents as different as eighth-seeded Creighton and ninth-seeded Alabama. Creighton has built its season around an offense that averages 80 points per game and is among the NCAA leaders in field goal percentage (50.9) and 3-point percentage (42.5). Alabama has constructed its success around its defense. The Crimson Tide allow only 58.1 points and has limited opponents to 38.8 percent shooting from the field. Each teams ability to play to its preferred tempo will determine who advances to the next round.

Pick: Alabama

No. 3 Georgetown Hoyas vs. No. 14 Belmont Bears (+3.5, 133.5)

THE STORY: No. 14 seed Belmont boasts a high-powered offense that averages 81.5 points, but the Bruins figure to be tested by third-seeded Georgetown’s tenacious defense, which allows an average of just 59.2 points. Belmont defeated Florida Gulf Coast to earn the program’s fifth Atlantic Sun Tournament championship in seven years, while Georgetown lost 72-70 in double overtime to Cincinnati in the Big East tournament quarterfinals. The game is a rematch of the first round of the 2007 NCAA tournament, when Georgetown beat the 15th-seeded Bruins 80-55.

Pick: Georgetown

No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels vs. No. 16 Vermont Catamounts (+16.5, 145)

THE STORY: North Carolina, the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Regional, will be the heavy favorite when it plays Vermont in the second round of the NCAA tournament. The Tar Heels are coming off a loss to Florida State in the ACC tournament final and may be without a key piece of their team as forward John Henson is listed as questionable with an injured left wrist. North Carolina has a definite home-court advantage with a 5-0 mark in three previous NCAA tournament appearances in Greensboro and is 29-1 in NCAA games played in its home state. Vermont has won 15 of its last 16 games, but has not beaten the Tar Heels in three previous tries.

Preview: North Carolina

No. 5 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 13 Ohio Bobcats (+5.5, 124)

THE STORY: Michigan has made the NCAA tournament in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1996, coming in as the No. 4 seed in the Midwest Regional after being an eighth seed a year ago. The Wolverines will get a challenge in the Round of 64 from Ohio, which has won eight of its last nine games to reach the NCAAs for the second time in three seasons. Michigan is a balanced offensive team, and allows only 61.4 points per contest. Ohio, which upset Georgetown in the 2010 tournament as a No. 14 seed, has scored more than 80 points nine times. Michigan has beaten the Bobcats in all three meetings, the last in 1971.

Pick: Ohio

No. 7 St. Mary's Gaels vs. No. 10 Purdue Boilermakers (+1, 140.5)

THE STORY: Seventh-seeded Saint Mary’s takes on No. 10 seed Purdue in a Round of 64 matchup between the West Coast Conference regular season and tournament champions and the sixth-place team from the Big Ten. The Gaels — who beat Gonzaga in the WCC final to earn an automatic bid — are making their fourth NCAA tournament appearance in eight years but have never been seeded higher than eighth. The Boilermakers are going dancing for the sixth straight season and have won their first game in the tournament 13 consecutive times. Saint Mary’s advanced to the Sweet 16 as a No. 10 seed when it last appeared in 2010.

Pick: St. Mary's

No. Temple Owls vs. No. 12 South Florida Bulls (+2.5, 121.5)

THE STORY: Fifth-seeded Temple makes its 30th appearance in the NCAA tournament, fully rested after losing in the quarterfinals of the Atlantic 10 tournament. The Owls have been a solid offensive team, averaging 76.2 points, but they will get quite a challenge from athletic, defensive-minded South Florida in the second round of the Midwest Regional. The 12th-seeded Bulls, who dominated California in the first round Wednesday, are allowing less than 57 points per contest. The two teams have never met, but Temple will join South Florida in the Big East next season.

Pick: South Florida

No. 2 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 15 Detroit Titans (+14.5, 142.5)

THE STORY: The Big 12 regular season champions were denied a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, but second-seeded Kansas has to like where it’s starting things off if recent history is any indicator. The Jayhawks open play in the Round of 64 against No. 15 seed Detroit in Omaha, Neb., which just happens to be where they played in the opening rounds of their 2008 national championship season. Kansas is led by National Player of the Year candidate Thomas Robinson (17.9 points, 11.8 rebounds). Detroit is in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1999 after making a surprise run to the Horizon League tournament title as the No. 3 seed.

Pick: Kansas

[StarDust Bum]

Slumping Florida meets Virginia on Friday


10 seed VIRGINIA CAVALIERS (22-9)

vs. 7 seed FLORIDA GATORS (23-10)


NCAA Tournament - Second Round
Tip-off: Friday, 2:10 p.m. EDT – Omaha, NE
Line: Florida -3½

Florida tries to snap out of its late-season funk on Friday night as it takes on a Virginia team that defends as well as anybody in the nation.

This will be a great contrast in styles, as the Gators like to push the tempo and shoot three-pointers while the Cavaliers prefer a slower pace with long possessions. Florida leads the nation with 9.9 threes per game while Virginia ranks second in the country scoring defense, allowing a paltry 53.7 PPG. Who will prevail on Friday night? For the answer, check out the College Basketball Three at Three Pass for picks covering all the big games in college basketball each weekday.

The Cavaliers have also been sliding lately, going 1-3 (SU and ATS) in its past four contests. But all three of these losses came by just three points, despite two of those winning opponents making more than half their shots (Florida State 51.1% FG, NC State 54.0% FG). Since getting shut down by Carolina on Feb. 25 (six points on 3-of-13 FG), the senior Scott (18.1 PPG, 8.4 RPG) has three straight double-doubles, scoring a whopping 28.7 PPG (50% FG) with 10.3 RPG. Joe Harris is his only teammate that averages double-figure scoring at 11.5 PPG. The sophomore guard shoots 40% from three-point range and is coming off an 18-point game in the ACC quarterfinal loss to NC State. Sophomore F Akil Mitchell (4.1 PPG) opened some eyes with a double-double (10 points, 12 rebounds) in the loss to the Wolfpack. This highly-rated FoxSheets trend also expects the Cavaliers to win:

Play On - Neutral court teams as an underdog (VIRGINIA) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite, on Friday nights. (42-16 since 1997.) (72.4%, +24.4 units. Rating = 2*).

Florida has a lot of weapons that make up its 76.3 PPG (27th in nation). Junior G Kenny Boynton (16.3 PPG) is the top scorer, but freshman F/G Bradley Beal is the most well-rounded player with 14.6 PPG and a team-high 6.5 RPG. Boynton is in a huge shooting funk in his past five games, going 14-of-48 FG (29%), capped off a by a 1-of-9 performance in the loss to Kentucky on Saturday. Beal had no such trouble against the ‘Cats, pumping in 20 points (4-of-7 threes), eight rebounds and five assists. Junior F Erik Murphy (10.7 PPG, 4.2 RPG) was even better, scoring a career-best 24 points (9-of-12 FG, 4-of-4 threes) against UK. Murphy is averaging 17.7 PPG in his past three contests. This two-star FoxSheets trend also backs the Gators:

Play On - Neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (FLORIDA) - after one or more consecutive overs against opponent after 3 or more consecutive overs. (113-62 since 1997.) (64.6%, +44.8 units. Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Cincinnati clashes with Texas on Friday


11 seed TEXAS LONGHORNS (20-13)

vs. 6 seed CINCINNATI BEARCATS (24-10)


NCAA Tournament - Second Round
Tip-off: Friday, 12:15 p.m. EDT – Nashville, TN
Line: Cincinnati -2

Texas is still searching for a signature win this season, but a victory over Big East Tournament runner-up Cincinnati on Friday will be something to feel good about.

The Bearcats pulled off the big upset over Syracuse in the Big East semifinals before running into a Louisville buzzsaw that held them to 44 points. Although Cincy was out-rebounded 37-28 by the Cardinals, the Longhorns do not have the size or skill down low that Louisville possesses. But Texas does have G J’Covan Brown who scores 20.1 PPG. Who will emerge victorious in this matchup? For the answer, check out the College Basketball Three at Three Pass for picks covering all the big games in college basketball each weekday.

Texas is just 2-5 ATS (3-4 SU) in its past seven games and the offense is shooting just 40% from the floor in its past five contests. One area the Longhorns have excelled in is at the free-throw line. Despite being known historically as a poor foul-shooting team, Texas makes 73.1% of its free throws this season. In addition to Brown, the Horns rely on a pair of freshman to help out with the scoring load, Sheldon McClellan (11.3 PPG) and Myck Kabongo (9.8 PPG, 5.3 APG). C Clint Chapman (7.3 PPG, 5.5 RPG) and freshman Jonathan Holmes (7.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG) will be tasked with attacking the glass and slowing down Cincy star forward Yancy Gates. This three-star FoxSheets trend also sides with the Longhorns:

CINCINNATI is 27-50 ATS (35.1%, -28.0 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games since 1997. The average score was CINCINNATI 67.3, OPPONENT 67.4 - (Rating = 1*).

Cincinnati allows just 61.2 PPG for the season. The senior PF Gates (12.4 PPG) leads the team with 9.2 RPG and he came up huge in his team’s two wins in the Big East Tournament with 20.5 PPG and 7.5 RPG. But he was held to nine points and six boards in the championship game loss. Sophomore G Sean Kilpatrick leads the Bearcats with 14.3 PPG and also contributes 4.6 RPG. Like Gates, he was great in the two tourney wins (15.0 PPG, 3.5 SPG), but struggled to a 2-of-9 shooting night in the final. Senior G Dion Dixon (13.1 PPG, 3.5 RPG) was just 2-for-8 that game, and is now shooting just 37% FG (27% threes) for the season. This two-star FoxSheets coaching trend also expects the Bearcats to win and cover:

Rick Barnes is 25-44 ATS (36.2%, -23.4 Units) after having lost 2 of their last 3 games as the coach of TEXAS. The average score was TEXAS 75.9, OPPONENT 68.5 - (Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Notre Dame squares off with Xavier Friday night


10 seed XAVIER MUSKETEERS (21-12)

vs. 7 seed NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (22-11)


NCAA Tournament - Second Round
Tip-off: Friday, 9:45 p.m. EDT – Greensboro, NC
Line: Notre Dame -2½

After disappointing finishes to their conference tournaments, Xavier and Notre Dame move on to the NCAAs where they will match up Friday night in Greensboro.

Notre Dame had it sights set on a Big East Championship, but shot a woeful 35.8% FG (2-of-17 threes) in a 14-point blowout loss to Louisville in the semifinals. Xavier must have also been feeling good about facing St. Bonaventure in the A-10 championship game, but it shot a horrible 33.9% FG and lost by 11 points. Both of these teams have enough scorers to bounce back, but which team will prevail on Thursday night? For the answer, check out the College Basketball Three at Three Pass for picks covering all the big games in college basketball each weekday.

Xavier is just 1-7-1 ATS (5-4 SU) in its past nine games, but the team has improved in some facets, namely rebounding. The Bonnies killed them on the glass (42-29) in the A-10 final though, something the Musketeers will need to correct against Notre Dame. When Xavier decides to exert energy on the defensive end of the floor, it is a tall task for opponents to score against them. The Musketeers are allowing just 39.8% FG on the season which has been even better (39.5% FG) in the past five games. Offensively, it is the dynamic backcourt of Tu Holloway (17.0 PPG, 5.1 APG) and Mark Lyons (15.5 PPG) that sets the tone. Holloway has been more assertive shooting the basketball lately with 20.8 PPG on 47% FG in his past four games. A big factor in this matchup though, will be 7-foot senior Kenny Frease (9.5 PPG, 6.1 RPG) not getting into foul trouble against Cooley. This three-star FoxSheets trend also sides with the Musketeers:

NOTRE DAME is 2-12 ATS (14.3%, -11.2 Units) in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NOTRE DAME 60.9, OPPONENT 69.6 - (Rating = 3*).

Notre Dame is fueled by its heady backcourt of Jerian Grant (12.3 PPG, 4.9 APG) and Eric Atkins (12.2 PPG, 4.1 APG), but the duo had more turnovers (eight) than assists (seven) in the loss to Louisville. The pair is tenacious on defense though as their ball pressure is a big reason the Irish give up just 61.5 PPG on 41.2% FG this season. The most important player on Notre Dame is PF Jack Cooley (12.4 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 61% FG). He has been up-and-down recently, scoring 18, 2, 27, 9 and 11 points in his past five games. But the whole team is to blame for its recent shooting woes of 56.2 PPG on 39% FG in the past five contests. Senior F Scott Marin (9.5 PPG, 5.7 RPG) continues to struggle from long distance, with an anemic season-long 25.5% 3-pt FG accuracy. This three-star FoxSheets trend also expects Notre Dame to win and cover:

XAVIER is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. The average score was XAVIER 67.4, OPPONENT 76.9 - (Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, March 16

Friday's games

Day games
Texas is 7-2 in first round games last nine years, with both losses coming as an 8-seed; lowest seed they won as was a 7. Longhorns are 3-4 in last seven games, 4-10 vs top 40 teams- they make only 32.7% behind arc. Cincinnati won seven of its last nine games, losing 50-44 to Louisville in ugly Big East title game. Cincinnati is 6-2 vs top 30 teams, with 56-55 win over Oklahoma in only game vs Big X foe. Four of top seven guys for Texas are freshmen. Big East teams are 12-15-1 against spread when number is less than 4 points; Big X teams are 16-6-1. Over last three years, underdogs are 10-2 vs spread in 6-11 games.

NC State won four of last five games to sneak into field for first time in seven years; they're 5-10 vs top 60 teams.Since '03, ACC teams seeded #6 or worse are still 10-8 SU. San Diego State is back in tourney despite losing four starters from LY's Sweet 16 team; Aztecs started year 18-2, but went 8-5 in last 13 games, with four wins by 3 or less points, or in OT. Over last three years, underdogs are 10-2 vs spread in 6-11 games. ACC favorites of less than 5 points are 7-9 vs spread in non-conference games; MWC underdogs of 4 or less points are 4-8. Since 2003, MWC teams are 8-15 SU in this round, but 4-3 the last two years.

Creighton is a great offensive team; Alabama excels on defense. Bluejays won their last seven games, with four of seven by 2 or less points or in OT. Alabama is 8-8 in its last 16 games after 13-3 start; Mitchell is out for the Tide, which hurts its defense. Tide is 2-6 vs top 40 teams, with both wins way back in November. MVC teams are 12-3 vs spread when number is 3 or less points; SEC teams are 13-9. Bluejays make 42.5% on the arc, 55.5% inside it; they've won 14 road/neutral court games. This game opened at Creighton -2, but now they're +2. Alabama won by 10 over Wichita State, best team in MVC, back in November.

Over last three years, ACC underdogs are 4-3 vs spread in first round; from '03-'08, all 30 ACC entrants were favored in first round. Underdogs are 7-1 SU in 7-10 games last two years, with only fave that won BYU in double OT over Florida two years ago; Gators won 11 games in a row when they allowed less than 70 points, lost last seven in row when they allowed more than 70. Virginia has good defense thats been hurt by Sene being injured; they're 3-5 in last eight games. Florida lost four of its last five games, with two losses to Kentucky. SEC favorites of less than 5 points are 10-4 vs spread; ACC dogs of less than 5 points are 8-12.

Over last six years, #3 seeds are 15-9 vs spread in first round games, as gap has widened between haves/have-nots (11-13 in prior six tourneys). Florida State is first team in 16 years to win four games in same season against UNC/Duke (4-1); they also went 0-2 vs Ivy League teams, as its guards can be erratic. St Bonaventure is in tourney for first time in over decade; they lost to Saint Louis by 24, Temple by 6 in its two games vs top 40 teams- they're 0-2 vs ACC teams, losing to Virginia Tech by 9, NC State by a hoop. ACC favorites of 7 or less points are 10-15 vs spread; Atlantic 14 underdogs of 7 or less points are 20-19-1.

Georgetown lost badly to Ohio U/VCU in first round last two years, so they have monkey to get off back; Hoyas are #5 team in eFG% defense, #1 against 3-pointers (26.6%). Belmont won its last 14 games, against inferior competition; they're 0-4 in NCAAs last six years, losing by 34-25-1-14 points. Atlantic Sun teams are 0-9 in NCAAs last nine seasons, 2-4 vs spread in last six, losing last three years by 10-29-14 points. This game opened at 6.5, was quickly bet down to 3.5. Big East favorites of 5 or less points are 13-14 vs spread. Belmont lost by point at Duke, by 16 at Memphis, their only two games vs top 60 opponents.

Health of Henson's left hand/wrist is primary concern for Tar Heel club that could beat Vermont if they showed up hung over; North Carolina is 2-3-1 vs spread in last six first round games, winning by 28-4-21-39-43-15 points. Vermont held Lamar to 33% in easy win Wednesday, league's first NCAA win since Catamounts upset Syracuse in '05. America East teams are 0-6 in this round last six years, 2-4 vs spread, with last five losses all by 19+ points. ACC favorites of 15+ points are 11-11 against spread this season. Vermont lost to Saint Louis by 19, to Harvard by 7; also lost to South Florida by a hoop and Iona by 1, so they compete.

Norfolk State played Marquette twice at beginning of season, losing by 31 in first meeting, by hoop in rematch; Missouri only plays seven guys and three of them were nursing bumps/bruises at Big 12 tourney last weekend. MEAC teams are 1-9 in NCAA games last nine years (4-6 vs spread), with only win a play-in game; they lost last three years by 38-27-42 points. Mizzou only plays seven guys, but five are seniors; they are #1 in offensive efficiency, making 39.5% behind arc, 56.9% inside it. Norfolk beat Drexel before Dragons got hot, their only win in five games against top 100 teams, with losses by 31-3-13-32 points.

Night games
Interesting contrast with Memphis being much more athletic than much more experienced Saint Louis team led by skilled tactician Majerus, who has stellar record in first round games but hasn't been in tourney in nine years. Since 2003, Atlantic 14 underdogs are 5-7 vs spread in first round of NCAAs; Memphis won five of last six first round games, but is 1-4-1 vs spread as first round favorite. Conference USA favorites of 5 or less points are 11-13 vs spread. Atlantic 14 underdogs of 5 or less points are 12-13-1. Billikens lost to New Mexico by 4 in only game vs top 50 foe; their wins in Anaheim tourney were against teams that had bad years.

Since 2008, double digit favorite from ACC are 5-1 vs spread in opening round; Duke lost two of last three games, getting beat by Florida State in ACC tourney- their last four wins are all by 8 or less points. Lehigh lost both its game vs top 50 teams this season by nine points each. Kelly is a question mark for Blue Devils, who won't need him here, but will in next game. Duke won/covered last three first round games, winning by 42-29-24 points. Patriot League teams are 0-5 in NCAAs since Bucknell won back-back first round games in 2005-06, losing last five years by 10-15-13-16-29 points, but since 2003, they're 6-2 vs spread in this round.

Young Ohio U (no seniors who play) won eight of last nine games, force turnovers on 26.7% of possessions (#2 in country); they lost 77-72 to Louisville back in November, so big stage shouldn't awe them. Michigan won seven of its last nine games- they get 36% of their points on 3's, but Bobcats defend arc well, allowing opponents to make just 30.3% behind arc. MAC teams ars surprisingly bad 1-7 in first round last eight years, but they covered four of last five, losing games by 3-13-13-13 points. Four of Michigan's top six guys are freshmen/sophs; they covered five of last seven games as a favorite.

WCC teams are 10-5 in this round since 2003, despite being underdog in 11 of 15 games; St Mary's was held to 60 or less points in five games it lost this season, scoring 67+ points in 24 of 27 wins. Gaels' defensive ace Holt is expected back here; St Mary's hasn't played in 10 days since OT win over Gonzaga in WCC title game. Boilermakers turn ball over less than any team in country, 13.5% of time. Big Dozen teams are 10-9 vs spread in games where spread is 3 or less points. WCC teams are 7-5-1. Since 2005, Big Dozen teams seeded #8 or lower are 6-10 SU in first round. Purdue is 3-9 vs top 50 teams (Gaels are #44).

NEC teams are 2-9 in NCAAs since 2003; both wins coming in play-in games, but they've covered six of last seven first round games, with five of last seven first round losses by 15 or less points. LIU is 20-2 in last 22 games since starting season 5-6; they're adept at getting to foul line, scoring 25.5% of points from there. Blackbirds make 36.8% behind arc, but Michigan State holds opponents to 29.2% on arc. Since 2004, Izzo is 2-6 vs spread in first round games; Big Dozen double digit favorites are 5-6 in first round. This season, Big Dozen favorites of 15+ points are 14-9-1 vs spread. LIU lost by 16-8 in two games vs top 100 foes.

Xavier was 7-0 when it had big brawl with crosstown rival Cincinnati and had several players suspended; they're 14-12 since then, but did win three of last four games, losing to Bonnies in A-14 semifinals. ESPN's Bob Valvano suggested Monday that Xavier is underachieving team that is finally hitting its stride, while Notre Dame overachieved this season and has finally hit a wall; since 2003, Irish are 3-2 in this round, but 1-4 vs spread, winning by 1-18-13 points. Atlantic 14 underdogs of 5 or less points are 13-14-1 vs spread; Big East favorites of 5 points or less are also 13-14. Irish are 2-3 in last five games, including loss to St John's.

South Florida is a dominant defensive team that crushed Cal Wednesday, leading 36-13 at half; Bulls won 14 of last 20 games after 7-7 start- they held last 11 opponents under 60 points. Temple is 13-2 last 15 games, but first round lost to UMass in A-14 tourney is red flag, especially as Dunphy's postseason history isn't pretty- his long NCAA drought was ended LY, with 66-64 win over Penn State, before double OT loss to a real good San Diego State team in 2nd round. Owls beat Villanova by 11 in only game vs Big East foe- they won all five OT games they played this season. Temple makes 40.2% of its shots behind arc.

Since 2003, Horizon League underdogs are 16-9 vs spread in NCAAs, as Butler covered seven of eight last two years in advancing to Final Fours both years. Detroit is better than average 15-seed; McCallum is an NBA player who is at Detroit because his dad is the coach; Titans are 15-3 in last 18 games after 7-10 start, with Indiana transfer Holman providing beef off bench. Kansas is 3-6 as opening round favorite last nine years, failing to cover last three years in wins by 19-16-10 points. Titans make only 29.5% behind arc; they lost to Notre Dame by 6, Alabama by 8 in only two games they played against top 50 teams.

Other tournament
Northwestern is 4-5 in its last nine true road games, but won last two, at Penn State/Iowa. Washington won 11 of its last 14 games; they've won last six home games, winning by 13-2-28-8-9-10 points.

[StarDust Bum]

Early Best Bets:


03/16/2012 @ 10:40 AM

CBB

[829] TOTAL o135 1.91
(ALABAMA vrs CREIGHTON)



03/16/2012 @ 10:40 AM

CBB

[830] CREIGHTON +1½ 1.91



03/16/2012 @ 09:40 AM

CBB

[837] NC ST -3 1.91



03/16/2012 @ 09:40 AM

CBB

[837] TOTAL o138 1.91
(NC ST vrs SAN DIEGO ST)



03/16/2012 @ 09:15 AM

CBB

[841] TEXAS +3 1.91



03/16/2012 @ 09:15 AM

CBB

[841] TOTAL o129 1.91
(TEXAS vrs CINCINNATI)



03/16/2012 @ 11:10 AM

CBB

[849] VIRGINIA +3 1.91



03/16/2012 @ 11:10 AM

CBB

[849] TOTAL o122 1.91
(VIRGINIA vrs FLORIDA)


Midday games posted later.

[StarDust Bum]

MID-DAY BEST BETS:


03/16/2012 @ 01:10 PM

CBB

[828] TOTAL u143½ 1.91
(VERMONT vrs NORTH CAROLINA)



03/16/2012 @ 03:50 PM

CBB

[833] TOTAL o128½ 1.91
(ST LOUIS vrs MEMPHIS U)



03/16/2012 @ 03:50 PM

CBB

[834] MEMPHIS U -3½ 1.91



03/16/2012 @ 12:20 PM

CBB

[836] GEORGETOWN -3 1.91



03/16/2012 @ 11:05 AM

CBB

[839] ST BONAVENTURE +6½ 1.91



03/16/2012 @ 11:05 AM

CBB

[840] TOTAL u129 1.91
(ST BONAVENTURE vrs FLORIDA ST)



03/16/2012 @ 01:40 PM

CBB

[847] TOTAL o144 1.91
(NORFOLK ST vrs MISSOURI)



03/16/2012 @ 01:40 PM

CBB

[848] MISSOURI -21½ 1.91

[StarDust Bum]

Evening Late Games:


03/16/2012 @ 04:15 PM

CBB

[823] LEHIGH +11½ 1.91



03/16/2012 @ 04:15 PM

CBB

[823] TOTAL o149 1.91
(LEHIGH vrs DUKE)



03/16/2012 @ 06:45 PM

CBB

[826] TOTAL u124½ 1.91
(XAVIER vrs NOTRE DAME)



03/16/2012 @ 06:20 PM

CBB

[832] TOTAL u152 1.91
(LONG ISLAND vrs MICHIGAN ST)



03/16/2012 @ 04:20 PM

CBB

[845] OHIO +5½ 1.91



03/16/2012 @ 04:20 PM

CBB

[845] TOTAL o125½ 1.91
(OHIO vrs MICHIGAN)



03/16/2012 @ 06:55 PM

CBB

[852] KANSAS -13½ 1.91



03/16/2012 @ 06:55 PM

CBB

[852] TOTAL u143 1.91
(DETROIT U vrs KANSAS)



03/16/2012 @ 04:25 PM

CBB

[853] PURDUE +2 1.91



03/16/2012 @ 04:25 PM

CBB

[853] TOTAL o140½ 1.91
(PURDUE vrs ST MARY S CA)

[StarDust Bum]

Wisconsin, Vanderbilt Face Off In Albuquerque

University Arena (aka The Pit) in Albuquerque, New Mexico was the site of four exciting opening round games on Thursday, with more drama expected on Saturday night.

Favorites went 3-1 against the spread in this pod compared to 8-4 ATS everywhere else. The ‘under’ was 2-2 versus 6-5-1 in other locations.

Here’s a preview of the two contests, with all four teams coming from major conferences. The game that most people are interested in comes up first.

(4) Wisconsin Badgers vs. (5) Vanderbilt Commodores
TIP-OFF: 6:10 p.m. (ET) TNT
SPREAD: Vanderbilt -1
TOTAL: 120

The spread opened with Vanderbilt giving a point and that’s where it has settled after initially moving down to a pick ‘em. The total is 120 points and the winner will advance to the Sweet Sixteen in Boston to face either No. 1 seed Syracuse or No. 8 Kansas State.

Wisconsin (25-9 SU, 17-14 ATS) had an easier-than-expected win over No. 13 Montana, 73-49 as 8½-point favorites. The Badgers showed why they have the nation’s stingiest defense (52.8 PPG), holding the Grizzlies to 38.3 percent shooting from the field. Offensively, they burned the nets with great 3-point shooting (10-of-19 for 52.6 percent).

Coach Bo Ryan’s team has broken 70-points scoring for the third time in four games after doing it just once in the previous 17. The ‘over’ is 8-2 in Wisconsin’s last 10 games after the ‘under’ started 14-7.

Ryan is 10-1 SU (6-4-1 ATS) in the opening round of the NCAA tourney with the Badgers. The problem has come the next round at just 4-5 SU (3-6 ATS). However, they did beat Kansas State 70-65 as 3½-point favorites last year to advance to the Sweet Sixteen before losing to Butler.

Vanderbilt (25-10 SU, 18-13 ATS) also had a solid tourney debut in beating Ivy League Harvard 79-70 as 5½-point favorites. Harvard cut an 18-point deficit down to five with under two minutes remaining, but Vandy hit its free throws to hold off any ‘back-door’ cover.

The Commodores are now 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games, sweeping through the SEC Tournament and taking down No. 1 Kentucky in the process. They also snapped a 3-game losing streak in the opening round of March Madness, all coming as favorites and since 2008.

Vanderbilt has two very good scorers in John Jenkins (20.1 PPG) and Jeffery Taylor (16.3 PPG). They combined for 42 against Harvard. Wisconsin’s defense will look to shut the pair down, but senior center Festus Ezeli and guard Brad Tinsley are both capable of stepping up and I think they will be the difference.

(3) Baylor Bears vs. (11) Colorado Buffaloes
TIP-OFF: 8:40 p.m. (ET) TNT
SPREAD: Baylor -7½
TOTAL: 133

These are old rivals from the Big 12 as Colorado moved to the Pac-12 this year. The winner travels to the Sweet Sixteen in Atlanta and could have to face No. 2 seed Duke.

Baylor (28-7 SU, 13-15 ATS) advanced with a 68-60 win over No. 14 South Dakota State, covering the 7½-points by the slimmest of margins thanks to late free throws. The Bears were jittery early as they fell behind 19-7, but had an 8-point lead at halftime (36-28) before holding on from there.

The 128 combined points scored went ‘under’ the 140½-point total. The ‘over’ was 4-0 in the Bears’ previous four, scoring 77.5 PPG and allowing 79 PPG. They are trying to recreate their Elite Eight run from 2010, but that was a more veteran group with Tweety Carter, LaceDarius Dunn and Ekpe Udoh.

Colorado (24-11 SU, 17-14 ATS) wasn’t even supposed to make the NCAA tourney, but a 4-game run (3-1 ATS) in winning the Pac-12 Tournament punched its ticket for the first time since 2003.

The Buffaloes took advantage of their opportunity with a 68-64 upset over No. 6 UNLV as 5½-point underdogs. That was a 20-point cushion in the second half before a furious Rebels rally. Colorado was one of two lower seeds to win on Thursday along with No. 12 VCU.

The ‘under’ is 5-0 in its last five games after dipping under the 136 ½-point total yesterday.

Colorado has a very good rebounder in Andre Roberson (11.2 per game), but he’s only 6-foot-7. Baylor’s Perry Jones III is 6-foot-11 and grabbed 11 boards last game and should do more damage underneath on Saturday, However, he had just two points, with fellow starter Quincy Acy adding four. Both must play better offensively or this will be another cover for Colorado.

LOUISVILLE POD - PITTSBURGH POD - PORTLAND POD