The Bum's March Madness All You Need To Know And Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

NHL Best Bets:


NHL

Wednesday, March 21



Game

Score

Status

Pick

Amount



Montreal

-

7:00 PM ET

Montreal +152

500



Buffalo

-



Under 5

500



Florida

-

7:00 PM ET

Carolina -115

500



Carolina

-



Over 5

500



Detroit

-

7:30 PM ET

Detroit +133

500



NY Rangers

-



Over 5

500



Vancouver

-

8:00 PM ET

Chicago -104

500



Chicago

-



Over 5.5

500



St. Louis

-

10:00 PM ET

St. Louis -128

500



Anaheim

-



Under 5

500

[StarDust Bum]

Mavs aim for 5th straight win hosting Lakers


LOS ANGELES LAKERS (28-18)

at DALLAS MAVERICKS (27-20)


Tip-off: Wednesday, 9:35 p.m. ET
Line: Dallas -5, Total: 188

Red-hot Dallas is in search of a fifth straight victory when the Lakers pay a visit to Big D on Wednesday night.

On the season, the Lakers are 9-15 SU and 7-16-1 ATS (30%) on the road, 6-8 SU and 5-9 ATS (36%) in the second game of a back-to-back. But L.A. has won both meetings against Dallas this year, holding the Mavs to 80.5 PPG on 37.6% FG. Can the Lakers score a rare road win on Wednesday night? For the answer, connect to the NBA Weekday Pass for ATS picks covering all the marquee NBA games each day.

The Lakers fell short in Houston on Tuesday night, 107-104, a game where they were favored. They were up 77-71 with a little more than a minute left in the third quarter, when Andrew Bynum (18.0 PPG, 57.9% FG, 12.7 RPG, 2.0 BPG) got ejected for his second technical and the Rockets proceeded to mount a comeback. As a team, they shot 50.6% from the field, but SG Kobe Bryant (28.7 PPG) was not stellar, needing 27 shots for his 29 points, and they put Houston on the line 27 times. Bryant is now 13-for-47 (27.7%) from the field over his past two games after Sunday’s 3-for-20 disaster against the Jazz.

The Bynum ejection was especially hurtful on Tuesday, as the reigning Western Conference Player of the Week has been near unstoppable in March. So far this month he’s averaging 23.3 PPG on 65.6% shooting from the field, 12.5 RPG and 2.0 BPG. He and PF Pau Gasol (16.7 PPG, 10.3 RPG), who is 18-for-26 FG (69.2%) over his past two games, will be a handful for a shorthanded Mavs frontcourt. Trade deadline acquisition Ramon Sessions (10.5 PPG with L.A. and Cleveland) has provided some much-needed offensive help for the Lakers’ big three. Sessions is averaging 10.3 PPG off the bench in three games with L.A. The FoxSheets have a three-star trend supporting the Lakers:

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42 or more games, after 2 straight losses by 6 points or less. (36-12 since 1996.) (75%, +22.8 units. Rating = 3*).

The Mavs have really caught fire on the offensive end, winning four in a row SU (and two straight ATS). They topped 100 points in each of those four games, averaging 106.5 PPG while hitting 49.1% FG and 37.5% of their threes. PF Dirk Nowitzki (20.8 PPG) is on a tear, playing his best basketball of the season. He’s averaging 28.5 PPG and hitting 54.8% of his shots (52.6% threes) over their four-game winning streak. SG Jason Terry (14.8 PPG) has added 17.3 PPG and hit 10-for-20 from behind the arc, and SG Roddy Beaubois (9.2 PPG) is at 15.8 PPG on 54.7% shooting during their streak.

They’ll likely be without C Brendan Haywood (5.7 PPG, 6.8 RPG), out with a sprained knee, and SF Shawn Marion (11.2 PPG, 6.8 RPG) will likely be a game-time decision on Wednesday because of his sore knee. C Ian Mahinmi (6.4 PPG, 4.8 RPG) has been solid filling in for Haywood over the past nine games, averaging 8.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG and posting an average plus/minus of +3.7. But he does remain foul prone, an issue for a thin frontcourt against L.A.’s size. The FoxSheets have a three-star trend working in the Mavs’ favor:

DALLAS is 46-21 ATS (68.7%, +22.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DALLAS 100.3, OPPONENT 94.1 - (Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Thunder favored big over Clippers Wednesday


LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (26-19)

at OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (34-12)


Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Oklahoma City -8½, Total: 197½

Two teams coming off tough losses Tuesday night get back at it one night later in Oklahoma City when the Thunder host the Clippers.

Can the Thunder cover this hefty spread on Wednesday night? For the answer, connect to the NBA Weekday Pass for ATS picks covering all the marquee NBA games each day.

Los Angeles has been a decent road team this season (11-11 SU, 11-9-2 ATS), scoring 96.8 PPG. But the Clippers are coming off a 102-89 loss at Indiana in which they shot less than 30% from three-point land for the fourth straight game. They are a woeful 20-of-81 (24.7%) on three-balls in these past four contests. Blake Griffin and Chris Paul combined to make 16-of-29 field goals in the loss to the Pacers, but the rest of the team shot 21-for-56 (37.5%). Griffin finished with 23 points and 10 rebounds while Paul contributed 16 points and eight assists. Griffin has really enjoyed coming back to the state where he played his college ball, averaging 31.5 PPG and 11.0 RPG in two career games in Oklahoma City. The FoxSheets provide this trend backing the Clips:

L.A. CLIPPERS are 23-12 ATS (65.7%, +9.8 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was L.A. CLIPPERS 95.9, OPPONENT 98.7.

Oklahoma City has been an offensive juggernaut in home games this season, averaging 105.6 PPG on 49.6% FG. But the team has lost three of five at Chesapeake Energy Arena since starting the year 17-1 on its home court. The defense has been lacking in its past five contests overall, allowing 100.0 PPG on 47.1% FG. The team’s main two scorers, SF Kevin Durant (27.5 PPG) and PG Russell Westbrook (23.9 PPG) have continued to blister the nets though. Although Durant was held to 18 points (6-of-22 FG) on Tuesday, ending his 20-point streak at 18 games, he should bounce back on Wednesday. That’s because Durant averages 28.5 PPG and 8.3 RPG in the past four seasons versus Los Angeles. This includes a 36-point, 13-rebound performance in the one meeting this season, a 112-100 Clippers win on Jan. 30. Westbrook is having a strong month, putting up 25.5 PPG on 49% FG in 11 March games. He scored a game-high 23 points (8-of-11 FG) in his team’s 97-90 loss at Utah on Tuesday. The FoxSheets have a two-star trend siding with the Thunder:

Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a road loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. (60-30 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.7%, +27 units. Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Knicks seek 5th consecutive win visiting Philly
By: Steve Bennett - *******
Published: 3/21/2012 at 6:12:00 AM
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NEW YORK KNICKS (22-24)

at PHILADELPHIA 76ERS (26-20)


Tip-off: Wednesday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Line: Philadelphia -4½, Total: 192

The Knicks look to continue their recent surge when they visit slumping Philadelphia on Wednesday night.

Since head coach Mike D’Antoni resigned and Mike Woodson took over in the interim, New York has played with a new energy on both ends of the court, winning four in a row, SU and ATS, outscoring opponents by an average of 111.0 to 88.5. The 76ers, meanwhile, are in a slump having lost three of four, SU and ATS, with the only win coming at lowly Charlotte. But Philly is 15-10 ATS at home, holding visitors to just 84.2 PPG on 41.1% FG. Can the Knicks keep rolling on Wednesday? For the answer, connect to the NBA Weekday Pass for ATS picks covering all the marquee NBA games each day.

The Knicks, particularly Stoudemire (17.5 PPG, 8.0 RPG) and Anthony (20.6 PPG), were clearly fed up with D’Antoni’s system and seemed to play half speed by the end of their ex-coach’s tenure. Since Woodson took over, both are playing inspired defense and efficient offense. Stoudemire is averaging 15.8 PPG (57.5% FG) and 8.5 RPG in 29.8 MPG, while Anthony is averaging 15.3 PPG in 27.0 MPG. Their numbers would be bigger if their minutes hadn’t been limited due to the blowout nature of all four games.

D’Antoni darling PG Jeremy Lin (14.8 PPG, 6.4 APG) has adjusted just fine to Woodson’s system, averaging 14.0 PPG on 54.8% FG and 6.8 APG (and only 3.5 TOPG) in 27.8 MPG. Their shooters have thrived in the new system as well, as PF Steve Novak (8.6 PPG, 48.0% from three) has averaged 11.0 PPG and shot 14-for-29 (48.3%) from three, while SG J.R. Smith (10.2 PPG) has averaged 15.3 PPG in 24.8 MPG and shot 41.4% from behind the arc. This strong FoxSheets trend supports the Knicks:

NEW YORK is 32-15 ATS (68.1%, +15.5 Units) as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NEW YORK 101.3, OPPONENT 102.9 - (Rating = 2*).

The 76ers have won consistently all year despite a lack of offensive firepower, but they’ve looked especially anemic of late. They dropped 105 points on a D-League-caliber Bobcats team, but prior to that, they mustered 78 points against the Heat at home and 80 in Chicago. The Knicks won’t be confused with either of those opponents on the defensive end, but Woodson has put an emphasis on defense and they’ve held their past three opponents (Portland and the Pacers twice) to 89.0 PPG and 39.1% shooting from the field.

When the teams met in New York 10 days ago, a 106-94 Philadelphia win, SG Evan Turner (9.0 PPG), SF Andre Iguodala (12.2 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 5.6 APG) and sixth man Lou Williams (15.8 PPG) did whatever they wanted on the offensive end. Turner went for 24 points on 9-for-14 shooting to go along with 15 rebounds, Iguodala had 19 points, seven rebounds and eight assists, and Williams had 28 points in 28 minutes. That trio has slumped of late though, with Iguodala averaging 7.8 PPG on 33.3% FG over his past four games, Williams averaging 11.8 PPG on 38.3% FG, and Turner having scored six points in each of his past two games. The duo of PG Jrue Holiday (13.8 PPG) and PF Thaddeus Young (13.2 PPG on 50.5% FG) have really been their most reliable offensive threats during their four-game slide, with Holiday averaging 18.5 PPG on 48.4% shooting and Young at 12.0 PPG on 53.5% shooting. This three-star FoxSheets trend expects a comfortable Philly win:

Play Against - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW YORK) - revenging a home loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more, off a home win by 10 points or more. (91-46 since 1996.) (66.4%, +40.4 units. Rating = 3*)

[StarDust Bum]

OSU and Cincy comprise Ohio battle in Sweet 16


CINCINNATI BEARCATS (26-10)

vs. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (29-7)


NCAA Tournament - Sweet 16
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:45 p.m. EDT – Boston, MA
Line: Ohio State -7½, Total: 130

Two of the four remaining Ohio teams square off in Boston on Thursday when sixth-seeded Cincinnati takes on No. 2 seed Ohio State.

The Bearcats have won each of their first two NCAA Tournament games by six points, topping Texas and Florida State. The Buckeyes have also won by comfortable margins (19 and 7), but they were certainly tested by Gonzaga on Saturday. Can the Buckeyes cover the hefty spread on Thursday? For the answer, check out the College Basketball Three at Three Pass for picks covering all the big games in college basketball each weekday.

Cincinnati has thrived in the underdog role this season, going 8-4 ATS. The school is also 4-1 (SU and ATS) at a neutral site. These marks were both boosted with a 62-56 win over Florida State on Sunday. G Sean Kilpatrick led the way with 18 points (4-of-6 threes), G Dion Dixon chipped in with 15, and F Yancy Gates had 10. But the other two starters (Cashmere Wright and Jaquon Parker) shot a combined 4-of-18 from the field. The Bearcats did a great job pressuring the basketball, as they forced 17 FSU turnovers with 13 steals (five by Wright). For the season, Cincy ranks 17th in the nation with a 3.4 turnover margin, thanks in large part to Wright’s 2.08 assist-to-turnover ratio. But because Gates is the only true interior player, the Bearcats will have to shoot better than they have all year, especially from behind the three-point line, to pull off this upset. Cincy has made just 8-of-31 threes (26%) in its two NCAA tourney wins. This three-star FoxSheets trend also sides with the Bearcats:

CINCINNATI is 9-1 ATS (90.0%, +7.9 Units) in road games after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season. The average score was CINCINNATI 65.2, OPPONENT 65.1 - (Rating = 3*).

Ohio State shoots 48.2% FG (17th in nation), including 54% on two-point baskets. Although it has five players that make more than 34% from downtown, the team connects on just 33.2% from behind the arc. The offense revolves around PF Jared Sullinger (17.6 PPG, 9.3 RPG), but sophomore F Deshaun Thomas (15.4 PPG, 5.0 RPG) has been on a scoring tear with 20.2 PPG and 7.7 RPG over his past 10 games. He has 50 points (20-of-37 FG) and 19 rebounds so far in the NCAA Tournament. Senior G William Buford (14.7 PPG, 4.9 RPG) has been wildly inconsistent all season (42.5% FG) and is shooting just 36% FG in his five postseason games (3 Big Ten, 2 NCAA). He’ll need to snap out of this funk for the Buckeyes to keep advancing. Sophomore point guard Aaron Craft (8.6 PPG, 4.6 APG) is the key to this offense. After a shaky first NCAA game against Loyola (MD) when he had four assists and five turnovers, Craft controlled Saturday’s contest against Gonzaga with 17 points (7-of-9 FG), 10 assists, three steals and just two turnovers. The Bearcats are relentless with their on-ball defense (8.1 SPG), so Craft has a big challenge in Thursday night’s game. This FoxSheets coaching trend likes the Buckeyes to win comfortably on Thursday.

Thad Matta is 50-29 ATS (63.3%, +18.1 Units) in March games in all games he has coached since 1997. The average score was Matta 71.

[StarDust Bum]

Crowder and Marquette look to slow down Florida

FLORIDA GATORS (25-10)

vs. MARQUETTE GOLDEN EAGLES (27-7)


NCAA Tournament - Sweet 16
Tip-off: Thursday, 10:17 p.m. EDT – Phoenix, AZ
Line: Marquette -1½, Total: 145½

After destroying its first two opponents in the NCAA Tournament, No. 7 seed Florida expects a much closer game in Friday’s Sweet 16 matchup with third-seed Marquette.

The Gators opened the NCAAs with a 71-45 drubbing of Virginia and followed that up with 34-point drilling (84-50) of Norfolk State. Florida is such a dangerous team because it has so many offensive weapons to choose from. The Gators make 9.8 threes per game (most in nation) at an impressive 38.3% clip. They also play very smart with a 1.35 assist-to-turnover ratio (12th in nation) and commit just 15.6 fouls per game (19th in D-I). But they don't have a player like Marquette's Jae Crowder who was the Big East Player of the Year and is having an excellent March. Can the Gators roll to another victory? For the answer, check out the College Basketball Three at Three Pass for picks covering all the big games in college basketball each weekday.

Florida has shot an identical 28-for-53 (53%) in both of its tournament games, but more impressively, the Gators have dominated the glass with an 87-54 rebounding edge. Their two opponents have made just 36-of-113 shots (31.9% FG), which obviously contributes to the rebounding disparity. Leading scorer G Kenny Boynton (16.3 PPG) was just 3-of-10 for eight points against Virginia, but dominated Norfolk State with 20 points, eight rebounds and four assists. Six-foot-3 freshman G Bradley Beal (14.6 PPG, 6.5 RPG) is the team’s most complete player who contributes in all facets. He’s had a tremendous four-game postseason (2 SEC, 2 NCAA) with 16.0 PPG and 8.8 RPG. Senior PG Erving Walker (12.1 PPG) leads the team with 4.7 APG, but has just five assists and four turnovers in the two NCA games. He’s also in a prolonged shooting slump, making just 33% of his shots (15-of-45 FG) in March.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also sides with the Gators:

Play On - Any team (FLORIDA) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), after allowing 55 points or less 2 straight games. (75-36 since 1997.) (67.6%, +35.4 units. Rating = 3*).

Marquette has been a great bet outside of Milwaukee, going 12-6 ATS on road/neutral courts. The Golden Eagles are great on the perimeter, ranking among the nation’s top-20 teams in assists (16.7 APG), steals (8.7 SPG) and turnover margin (+3.4 per game). They aren’t as effective down low, getting outrebounded on the season and blocking just 3.5 shots per game. The senior Crowder (17.4 PPG, 8.1 RPG) has been tremendous in all areas over the first two NCAA Tournament games, averaging 21.0 PPG, 14.5 RPG, 3.5 SPG and 3.0 APG. His 17 points and 13 rebounds in Saturday’s 62-53 win over Murray State gives him five straight double-doubles. Fellow senior teammate G Darius Johnson-Odom (18.5 PPG) has 18.5 PPG in two NCAA games and has scored 17+ points in nine of his past 10 games. This four-star FoxSheets coaching trend also likes the Eagles to win and cover.

Buzz Williams is 21-5 ATS (80.8%, +15.5 Units) versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season as the coach of MARQUETTE. The average score was MARQUETTE 77.7, OPPONENT 67.0 - (Rating = 4*).

[StarDust Bum]

Green looks to lead MSU past Louisville Thursday

LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (28-9)

vs. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (29-7)


NCAA Tournament - Sweet 16
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:47 p.m. EDT – Phoenix, AZ
Line: Michigan State -4½, Total: 125

The Draymond Green show moves to Phoenix as the star senior’s top-seeded Michigan State team takes on four-seed Louisville in a Sweet 16 matchup on Thursday night.

Green has been unbelievable in two NCAA Tournament wins this year, tallying a triple-double (24 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists) in a blowout of LIU Brooklyn and then carrying his team past Saint Louis on Sunday with 16 points, 13 rebounds and six assists. Louisville won’t be a pushover though, as the Cardinals have won six straight (SU and ATS), limiting opponents to 56.3 PPG during their win streak. Also, both teams have excellent head coaches with plenty of NCAA Tournament success. Which team will keep its win streak intact and move to the Elite Eight? For the answer, check out the College Basketball Three at Three Pass for picks covering all the big games in college basketball each weekday.

Louisville has held its two NCAA Tournament opponents to 59.0 PPG on 37% FG and 21% threes (9-of-42), but it struggled to contain New Mexico big man Drew Gordon. The 6-foot-9 senior owned the lane on Saturday, scoring 21 points and grabbing 14 rebounds. The Cardinals know they’ll have to do a much better job inside against Green and the other plus-sized frontcourt players for Michigan State. Sophomore C Gorgui Dieng (9.4 PPG, 9.1 RPG) and freshman F Chane Behanan (9.0 PPG, 7.4 RPG) will be tasked with manning the paint. Louisville is at its best when junior PG Peyton Siva (9.1 PPG, 5.5 APG) is on his game. After a brilliant four-game Big East Tournament (13.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 5.8 APG) and a strong NCAA opener against Davidson (17 points, six assists), Siva had just six points (2-of-6 FG) and five assists in Saturday’s win over the Lobos. Luckily for the Cards, sophomore G Russ Smith busted out of shooting slump (14-of-64 FG, 22% in previous seven games) to score a team-high 17 points against UNM. Senior swingman Kyle Kuric (13.1 PPG, 4.4 RPG) also added 10 points, but failed to record a single rebound or assist in 33 minutes of action. He needs to do more than just score for his team to win on Thursday night.This two-star FoxSheets trend also sides with the Cardinals:

LOUISVILLE is 9-1 ATS (90.0%, +7.9 Units) after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LOUISVILLE 72.5, OPPONENT 60.3 - (Rating = 2*).

Michigan State does a great job working the ball around for high-percentage shots, ranking 26th in the nation in assists (15.4 APG) and 16th in FG Pct. (48.2%). The Spartans don’t make a whole lot of threes (5.4 per game, 236th in nation), but have three players that shoot at a high percentage from behind the arc in Austin Thornton (47%), Travis Trice (41%) and Brandon Wood (37%), so they are certainly capable of shooting over the 2-3 zone that Louisville sometimes employs. Sophomore G Keith Appling (11.3 PPG, 3.9 APG) is second on the team in scoring, but makes just 24.5% of his threes for the season. Appling has had a strong tournament so far with 14.5 PPG on 12-of-25 FG (48%) and 3.0 APG. He scored a game-high 19 points in Sunday’s win over Saint Louis as the Spartans outshot the Billikens 54% FG to 35% FG in the 65-61 victory.This rare four-star FoxSheets coaching trend expects the Spartans to win comfortably on Thursday.

Tom Izzo is 21-5 ATS (80.8%, +15.5 Units) versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season after 15+ games as the coach of MICHIGAN STATE. The average score was MICHIGAN STATE 73.5, OPPONENT 64.7 - (Rating = 4*)

[StarDust Bum]

Syracuse meets Wisconsin in Thursday's Sweet 16


WISCONSIN BADGERS (26-9)

vs. SYRACUSE ORANGE (33-2)


NCAA Tournament - Sweet 16
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:15 p.m. EDT – Boston, MA
Line: Syracuse -4, Total: 121

No. 1 seed Syracuse tries to move to the Elite Eight on Thursday, but it first has to beat the nation’s best defensive team in fourth-seeded Wisconsin.

The Badgers lead the country with 52.9 PPG allowed, and gave up just 53.0 PPG in their first two wins of the NCAA Tournament over Montana and Vanderbilt. Syracuse struggled for the first three halves of the NCAAs before outscoring Kansas State 50-35 in the second half of Saturday’s Round of 32 game. Will the Orange be able to ride that momentum and handle the Badgers? For the answer, check out the College Basketball Three at Three Pass for picks covering all the big games in college basketball each weekday.

Wisconsin ranks second in the nation in fewest turnovers committed (9.0 per game) and fifth in personal fouls (14.3 per game), so this is a team that doesn’t beat itself. The Badgers are led by do-it-all senior G Jordan Taylor (14.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 4.0 APG), who has 15.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG and 4.5 APG so far in the NCAAs. But this is far from a one-man team, as four other Wisconsin players scored in double-figures in the 60-57 win over Vanderbilt on Saturday. Junior F Ryan Evans (10.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG) had 11 points, five rebounds and four assists against the Commodores, marking his 14th straight game of 10+ points. Evans also had 18 points and eight assists in the Round of 64 win over Montana. Junior C Jared Berggren scored 12 points with six boards versus Vandy, but was just 1-of-6 from three-point range. He’ll need to bust out of his long-range shooting slump (7-for-26 threes in past eight games) to help combat Syracuse’s 2-3 zone. The Badgers make 36.2% of their three-point tries, but the Orange hold opponents to a mere 30.7% shooting from behind the arc. This two-star FoxSheets trend sides with the Badgers:

WISCONSIN is 19-7 ATS (73.1%, +11.3 Units) after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. The average score was WISCONSIN 67.3, OPPONENT 55.1 - (Rating = 2*).

The Orange have been a losing bet recently, going 2-7 ATS in their past nine games. However, Syracuse still ranks second in the nation in turnover margin (+5.8) and is also great defensively, allowing just 60.5 PPG on 38.3% FG (7th in nation). Much of the Orange’s success comes from steals (9.4 SPG, 3rd in nation) and blocks (7.1 BPG, 3rd in nation), but the absence of Syracuse seven-footer Fab Melo (academics) could prove costly. The offensive balance is a sight to behold as the team averages 74.5 PPG, but only two players score in double-figures, senior F Kris Joseph (13.7 PPG) and sophomore G Dion Waiters (12.7 PPG). Joseph has really struggled to shoot the ball in the postseason, averaging just 10.5 PPG on 8-of-31 shooting (26%) in four tournament games (2 Big East, 2 NCAA). Waiters has been tremendous in the four postseason games though, averaging 19.0 PPG on 25-of-45 FG (56%). Senior G Scoop Jardine (8.3 PPG, 4.7 APG) had a shaky Big East Tournament (4.0 PPG), but has come up big in the two NCAA tourney wins with 13.5 PPG and 7.5 APG. He did commit six turnovers against KSU though, and the Orange can’t afford to waste possessions in a game that figures to be a defensive struggle with the Badgers milking the shot clock virtually every trip down the floor. This FoxSheets trend also likes the Orange to win comfortably on Thursday.

SYRACUSE is 26-9 ATS (74.3%, +16.1 Units) in road games after game - where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less since 1997. The average score was SYRACUSE 75.9, OPPONENT 67.3 - (Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

West Region Semifinals

March 21, 2012

These games will be played at US Airways Arena in Phoenix.

**Michigan State vs. Louisville**

--As of Wednesday afternoon, most books were listing top-seeded Michigan St. (29-7 straight up, 22-11 against the spread) as a five-point favorite with a total of 125. The Cardinals are plus-180 on the money line (risk $100 to win $180).

--Louisville (28-9 SU, 20-13-1 ATS) has won six in a row both SU and ATS, including wins over Davidson (69-62) and New Mexico (59-56). Peyton Siva was the catalyst against the Wildcats, scoring 17 points and dishing out six assists. Chane Behanan added 14 points and 11 rebounds.

--Rick Pitino’s team broke open a close game against the Lobos and led by as many as 15 in the second half. However, U of L had to hold off a late UNM rally to capture the three-point win as a two-point ‘chalk.’ Russ Smith came off the bench and buried all three attempts from 3-point range en route to scoring a team-high 17 points. Behanan and Kyle Kuric added 10 points apiece.

--Michigan St. cruised past LIU Brooklyn by an 89-67 count as a 19-point favorite in its NCAA opener. Draymond Green had a triple-double with 24 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists, while Derrick Nix added 18 points and eight boards.

--Tom Izzo’s squad beat Saint Louis 65-61 this past Sunday as a 7 ½-point favorite. The Billikens hit a late three to ensure the cover as underdogs. Green was terrific again with 16 points, 13 rebounds and six assists. Keith Appling finished with a game-high 19 points.

--Louisville will be looking for revenge in this spot. In the 2009 NCAA Tournament, U of L was a No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region before losing a 74-62 decision to the Spartans as a 6 ½-point favorite in the Elite Eight. As a freshman, Green has six point and 10 rebounds for the winners.

--Louisville owns a 6-3 spread record with four outright wins in nine games as an underdog this season.

--Michigan St. has posted a 9-7 spread record as a single-digit ‘chalk.’

--Totals have been an overall wash for the Spartans (16-16-1), but we should note that the ‘over’ is 4-2 in their last six outings.

--The ‘under’ is on fire in Louisville games, cashing at a 9-1 clip in its last 10 games. The ‘under’ is 20-14 overall for the Cardinals.

--TBS will have television coverage at 7:45 p.m. Eastern.

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**Marquette vs. Florida**

--Most betting shops are listing third-seeded Marquette (27-7 straight up, 18-12-1 against the spread) as a 1 ½-point favorite with the total in the 145-146 range. Gamblers can take the Gators to win outright for a plus-105 return (risk $100 to win $105).

--Florida (25-10 SU, 14-15-1 ATS) advanced to the Sweet 16 with a pair of wins in Omaha over Virginia (71-45) and Norfolk St. (84-50). Those victories represented the first time in NCAA Tournament history that a team scored 70 or more and held opponents to 50 or less in the first weekend.

--Five UF players scored in double figures during its run-away-and-hide win over Norfolk St., which had stunned second-seeded Missouri 48 hours beforehand. Junior guard Kenny Boynton led the way with 20 points, eight rebounds and four assists. Bradley Beal and Erving Walker combined for 29 points, six assists and four steals, while Mike Rosario snapped out of a prolonged shooting slump to bury 5-of-7 from the field in a 12-point effort.

--When we get to this time of year, all head coaches ask their players for a little something extra. However, it’s rare that a player who has contributed next to nothing all season produces a big-time performance. Nevertheless, that’s exactly what Billy Donovan got out of sophomore forward Casey Prather last week. In the win over UVA, Prather scored a career-high 14 points and pulled down four rebounds in just 22 minutes of playing time. Prather took a charge, stepped out to the perimeter and knocked down a trey and attacked the basket like he’s never done before during his collegiate career. He was suffering from flu-like symptoms prior to the win over Norfolk St., however, and was limited to nine minutes of action.

--Marquette advanced to the region semifinals with wins over BYU (88-68) and Murray St. (62-53). Jae Crowder, the Big East Player of the Year, destroyed the Cougars with 25 points, 16 rebounds, four assists and four steals with only one turnover. Darius Johnson-Odom added 20 points, five boards and four assists.

--Buzz Williams’s squad trailed nearly the entire game against Murray St. before using a late 14-2 run to overcome the Racers and get back to the Sweet 16 for the second time in as many years. Crowder and Johnson-Odom scored 17 points apiece for the Golden Eagles, who got their 14th double-double of the season out of Crowder.

--Florida has four players (Boynton, Walker, Beal and Erik Murphy) who have drained 56 treys or more led by Boynton’s 107, which is sixth-best in the nation.

--Donovan owns a 4-1 record in five career Sweet 16 games during his tenure at Florida. The lone loss? That came in Phoenix at this venue in the 1999 NCAA Tournament when Gonzaga beat UF on Casey Calvary’s last-second tip-in. Donovan owns a 27-9 career record in the NCAA Tournament.

--Marquette owns a 9-7 spread record in 16 games as a single-digit favorite. Meanwhile, the Gators are winless (straight up) and 3-3 ATS in six games as underdogs.

--The ‘over’ is 18-12 overall for UF, but the ‘under’ cashed in both of its NCAA games last weekend.

--The ‘over’ is 19-12 overall for Marquette, 8-3 in its last 11 games.

--This game will tip 30 minutes after the conclusion of Michigan St.-Louisville. TBS will provide television coverage.

[StarDust Bum]

East Region Semifinals

March 21, 2012

These East Region games will be played at TD Garden in Boston.

**Wisconsin vs. Syracuse**

--As of Wednesday afternoon, most books were listing top-seeded Syracuse (33-2 straight up, 18-16 against the spread) as a 3 ½-point favorite with a total of 121. Gamblers can back the Badgers to win outright for a plus-160 return (risk $100 to win $160).

--Playing without Big East Defensive Player of the Year Fab Melo, who was suspended for the NCAA Tournament last Tuesday, Jim Boeheim’s squad got a major scare against UNC-Asheville in its NCAA opener. The Bulldogs led the Orange by four at intermission and they very much in contention to pull off a stunning upset until the final 30 seconds. The ‘Cuse got a couple of fortunate calls at crunch time and knocked down its free throws to escape with a 72-65 win.

--Syracuse never threatened to cover the number against UNC-Asheville as a 15 ½-point favorite. James Southerland provided a huge lift off the bench for the Orange, scoring a team-high 15 points on 6-of-8 shooting from the field. Kris Joseph and Dion Waiters added 12 points apiece.

--After playing so poorly against UNC-Asheville, Syracuse looked much better in Saturday’s 75-59 win over Kansas St. as a 5 ½-point favorite. Waiters was the catalyst with a game-high 18 points and Scoop Jardine tallied 16 points, eight assists and five rebounds.

--Wisconsin (26-9 SU, 18-14 ATS) advanced to another Sweet 16 thanks to a thrilling 60-57 win over Vanderbilt, which had been red hot after winning the SEC Tournament with a win over Kentucky in the finals. The Badgers took the cash in this pick ‘em affair. They got a team-high 14 points from senior point guard Jordan Taylor, who hit a clutch 3-pointer at crunch time. Taylor also got Vandy star Jeffery Taylor into foul trouble in the first half by forcing the refs to blow the whistle with his dribble penetration.

--As we all know, Syracuse strictly plays a zone defense and that very well could be a good thing for Wisconsin, which has a number of outstanding 3-point shooters, including several of its big men that can step out and stroke it from beyond the arc. Without Melo, the Orange can’t attack shooters quite as aggressively because it no longer has a premier shot blocker in the lane to bail out defenders that get beat with shot fakes off the dribble.

--Bo Ryan’s team has been an underdog seven times, compiling a 4-3 spread record with three outright victories.

--Syracuse has limped to a 5-9 spread record in 14 games as a single-digit favorite.

--The ‘under’ is 17-15 overall for the Badgers.

--The ‘under’ is 19-14-1 overall for the ‘Cuse, 4-1 in its last five games.

--Tip-off is scheduled for Thursday at 7:15 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

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**Cincinnati vs. Ohio State**

--Most books are listing Ohio St. (29-7 SU, 18-13 ATS) as an eight-point favorite with a total of 129 ½. The Bearcats are available on the money line for a lucrative plus-320 payout (risk $100 to win $320).

--Cincinnati (26-10 SU, 17-13 ATS) has caught fire at the right time with 11 wins in its last 14 games, including Sunday night’s ferociously intense 62-56 win over third-seeded FSU as a two-point underdog. The Bearcats pulled away from the Seminoles in a defensive slugfest thanks to crucial jumpers at crunch time from Sean Kilpatrick, who scored a game-high 18 points on 4-of-6 shooting from 3-point range.

--Cincy’s win over FSU featured 11 ties and 22 lead changes. If coaches want to put in a film to teach their respective teams about defensive intensity, all they have to do is play the second half of this battle in which every dribble and pass was hotly contested. The game turned at the 1:40 mark after a Yancy Gates free throw knotted the score at 50-50. When Cincy showed press, Dion Dixon guessed correctly and got a great break on a pass from FSU’s Luke Loucks and got a steal and an easy dunk. Moments later, the Bearcats forced Loucks into another turnover (he thought he was fouled) and then they knocked down six consecutive free throws to put the game on ice.

--Mick Cronin’s team has thrived in the underdog role, going 8-4 ATS with six outright victories in 12 such situations.

--Cincy has been lining the pockets of its backers with greenbacks galore lately, going 8-1 ATS in its last nine games.

--Thad Matta’s team is back in another Sweet 16 thanks to a 73-66 win over Gonzaga as an eight-point ‘chalk’ this past Saturday. Jared Sullinger and Deshaun Thomas shared team-high honors with 18 points apiece, but Aaron Craft was the difference with 17 points, 10 assists, three rebounds and three steals.

--Ohio St. has been a single-digit favorite 14 times and has struggled to a 5-9 spread record.

--Sullinger presents a matchup problem for most team because few squads have a physical presence with the type of size and strength to deal with Sullinger. That’s not the case whatsoever with the Bearcats, who have a guy in Yancy Gates who won’t be bullied in the lane by any other player in America.

--The ‘over’ is 18-11-2 overall for the Buckeyes, cashing in eight of their last nine games.

--The ‘under’ is 17-13 overall for the Bearcats, 7-3 in their last 10 games.

--This is the first time in NCAA Tournament history that four teams from the same state (Ohio: Cincy, Ohio St., Xavier and Ohio) have advanced to the Sweet 16.

--This game will begin 30 minutes following the end of ‘Cuse-Wisconsin.

[StarDust Bum]

Sweet 16 Primer

March 21, 2012

The field of 68 has been reduced to 16. We’ve yet to see a buzzer beater or an overtime game, but we’ve certainly been treated to great comebacks, stunning upsets and excitement galore. Let’s get you ready for the Sweet 16 with a few early thoughts.

Florida became the first team in NCAA Tournament history to score 70-plus points and limit its opponents to 50 points or less in its first two games. The Gators thumped Virginia 71-45 and then dealt Norfolk St. an 84-50 shellacking.

UF advances to its sixth Sweet 16 during Billy Donovan’s tenure and will take on third-seeded Marquette. Most books are listing the Golden Eagles as 1 ½-point favorites with a total of 146.

Buzz Williams’s team had zero luck against SEC squads this year. Marquette got beat at LSU when the Tigers were playing without one of their best players in Johnny O’Bryant. Also, Vandy went up to Milwaukee and cruised to an easy win by 17 points that wasn’t close from the start.

In the other West region semifinal clash in Phoenix on Thursday, top-seeded Michigan State will collide with No. 4 seed Louisville. Most spots have the Spartans installed as 4 1/2-point favorites with a total of 125. The Cardinals are plus-180 on the money line (risk $100 to win $180).

This is a rematch of an Elite Eight contest in 2009 when Tom Izzo’s team stunned a top-seeded Louisville squad by a 64-52 count as a 6 ½-point underdog.

U of L has won six in a row both SU and ATS, including wins over Davidson (69-62) and New Mexico (59-56) this past weekend. Meanwhile, Michigan St. eliminated LIU Brooklyn and Saint Louis, although it failed to cover the number in a 65-61 win over the Billikens as a 7 ½-point ‘chalk.’

Something has to give in this tilt because Rick Pitino has never lost a Sweet 16 game and Izzo’s teams have made the Final Four every time it has been a No. 1 seed.

The East Region semifinals will go down at TD Garden in Boston, where top-seeded Syracuse will face Wisconsin on Thursday at 7:15 p.m. Eastern. Most spots have the Orange tabbed as a four-point favorite with the total in the 121-122 range. Gamblers can take the Badgers to win outright for a plus-170 return (risk $100 to win $170).

Syracuse trailed 16th-seeded UNC-Asheville at halftime of its tourney opener, but it was able to squeak past the Bulldogs. Then on Saturday, Jim Boeheim’s team looked much sharper in disposing of Kansas St., 75-59. Nevertheless, we should note that the ‘Cuse is mired in a 2-7 ATS slump.

Wisconsin blasted Montana on Thursday and then won a 60-57 thriller over a red-hot Vanderbilt team. The Badgers have three major factors working in their favor. First, they have one of the nation’s premier coaches in Bo Ryan. Secondly, Jordan Taylor is one of the best point guards in the country and, last but not least, Wisconsin is as stingy as always at the defensive end of the court.

Ohio St. will play Cincinnati as a seven-point favorite with a total of 130 ½. The Bearcats are plus-300 to win outright. If the Buckeyes and Badgers win, we’ll have an all Big Ten showdown in the East Region finals.

On Friday, let’s start in Atlanta where third-seeded Baylor will face Xavier at 7:15 p.m. Eastern on CBS. Most books are listing the Bears as six-point favorites with a total of 140. The Musketeers are plus-230 on the money line (risk $100 to win $230).

Scott Drew’s squad scratched past a scrappy South Dakota St. squad by a 68-60 score as a 7 ½-point favorite this past Thursday. Then on Saturday, Baylor broke open a tight game with a huge run midway through the second half and cruised to an 80-63 triumph over Colorado.

Brady Heslip did his best Jeff Fryer imitation (LMU over Michigan circa ’90) against the Buffaloes, bombing away from 3-point land at a 9-for-12 clip. Also, Pierre Jackson was fabulous with 15 points, 10 assists and five steals.

As I’ve stated quite a bit recently, Xavier was one of the country’s most disappointing teams this season. But as I also indicated last week, I felt that getting into the tournament – which looked very sketchy for several weeks – could put the regular-season disappointments in the rearview mirror.

I said last week that now that the expectations had subsided, Xavier could just go out and play without feeling any pressure. The Musketeers did just that in wins over Notre Dame and Lehigh, which had stunned second-seeded Duke on Friday night.

After playing horrible in a loss to Marquette in last year’s NCAAs, Tu Holloway bounced back and enjoyed a great weekend. But it was senior center Kenny Frease who was the catalyst against the Mountain Hawks. Frease led Xavier back from a double-digit first-half deficit to capture a 70-58 win. Frease finished with a career-high 25 points and 12 rebounds.

But Frease will face an athletic Baylor frontcourt that features Quincy Acy and Quincy Miller. They key for Xavier will be Holloway and backcourt mate Mark Lyons. Both will have to produce special performances for the Musketeers to get to the Elite Eight.

In the late game at the Ga. Dome, there’ll be no shortage of resentment, tradition, excitement and drama when a pair of the nation’s most storied programs collide…again!

Kentucky will get its chance to avenge a buzzer-beating loss in Bloomington when it squares off against Indiana. The oddsmakers expect the Wildcats to do so as they’ve been installed as nine-point favorites with a total of 145. The Hoosiers are plus-400 on the money line.

UK snapped out of a 0-4 ATS slide in Saturday’s 87-71 win over Iowa St. as a 12-point favorite. Marquis Teague led the way with 24 points and seven assists against the Cyclones. Anthony Davis added 15 points and 12 boards.

After thumping New Mexico St., Indiana trailed nearly the entire game but rallied to edge VCU by a 63-61 count. The Hoosiers got 16 points apiece from Christian Watford and Cody Zeller.

When these teams met on Dec. 10, Watford scored a game-high 20 points and hit the game-winner from the left wing as time expired. A big factor in that game was Davis being in foul trouble. The SEC Player of the Year logged just 24 minutes and finished with only six points, nine rebounds and one blocked shot.

The Midwest Region semifinals will be played at the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis. North Carolina will face Ohio in Friday’s lid-lifter at 7:45 p.m. Eastern.

The big question facing the top-seeded Tar Heels is the status of point guard Kendall Marshall, who suffered a broken bone in his wrist and was expected to have surgery Monday. Nevertheless, there’s a chance he’ll play and it’s important to note that the injury is to his right wrist and Marshall is a southpaw.

The other wrist of note belongs to John Henson, who missed Friday’s win over Vermont but returned to the starting lineup in Sunday’s 87-73 win over Creighton. Henson looked good with 13 points, 10 rebounds and four blocked shots. All five UNC starters scored in double figures against the Bluejays with Marshall leading the way with 18 points and 11 assists.

Ohio is back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1964. The Bobcats won the MAC Tournament and kept that momentum going with upset wins over Michigan and South Florida. They have a stellar backcourt with D.J. Cooper and Walter Offutt, who combined for 40 points in the win over the Bulls.

There’s another double-digit seed in St. Louis besides Ohio, but North Carolina St. hasn’t looked anything like a Cinderella in recent weeks. Mark Gottfried has a big, strong and athletic unit that won’t be intimidated by Kansas in the least.

Most books are listing KU as an eight-point favorite with a total of 141 ½. Bettors can take the Wolfpack to win outright for a plus-300 payout.

N.C. St. is in the midst of a 7-0-1 ATS run that’s been loading the pockets of its backers. The Wolfpack knocked off San Diego St. and Georgetown to reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2005.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Purdue senior forward Robbie Hummel left it all on the court in Sunday night’s gut-wrenching loss to Kansas. The Boilermakers did everything right for 38 ½ minutes and was on the cusp of eliminating second-seeded Kansas, but they had a pair of terrible offensive possessions and ended up on the short end of a 63-60 decision. Hummel scored 26 points, grabbed nine rebounds and dished out three assists. He drained 9-of-13 shots from the field. Here’s a tip of the cap to Hummel, who had an outstanding, albeit extremely unlucky, career for the Boilers. I wish nothing but the best for him and hate that Purdue didn’t beat KU so his collegiate career could’ve continued for another week.

--Although Stan Heath and USF have to be sick about being eliminated by 13th-seeded Ohio, the future is bright for the Bulls, who won their first two NCAA games in school history by smashing Cal and Temple.

--I’m sure this is a stretch but I’m hard pressed to remember a recent game in which I saw more defensive intensity than Sunday’s Cincy-FSU war, especially in the second half. There was about a six-minute stretch in which every dribble and pass by every offensive player was tenaciously contested. I’m not sure the Bearcats had any possessions during said stretch in which at least one (if not two or three) passes were deflected by the Seminoles. Fortunately for Mick Cronin, his players stepped up and made several tough shots that were well defended.

--The Gators won their two games by 60 combined points.

--RIP to legendary sportswriter Furman Bisher, who died Sunday at the age of 93. Bisher worked for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution from 1950-2009 and was an icon in the industry. He scored the only post Black Sox interview ever with ‘Shoeless’ Joe Jackson in 1949 and he often sipped sweet tea on Ty Cobb’s front porch. Bisher was best known for his golf coverage and he played many rounds with Bobby Jones and Ben Hogan. Selah.

[StarDust Bum]

Return of the Big 10

March 20, 2012

For 10 consecutive years, the ACC owned the annual early measuring stick for conference supremacy in college basketball. Any time a fan out in hoops-crazy Indiana or intensely proud cities like Detroit and Chicago wanted to laud the Big Ten's depth, they had to do it knowing those schools throughout the southern East coast owned scoreboard. Entering 2009, the ACC-Big Ten challenge may as well have been renamed the Atlantic Coast Invitational.

Meanwhile, the behemoth of the Big East grew and swallowed most of the remaining attention, while Billy Donovan created a national program at Florida, joining Kentucky in casting shadows in the SEC.

The Big Ten turned into an also-ran where even the best teams at anchor programs Michigan State and Ohio State often underachieved.

So, yes, the thunder the Big Ten has brought in 2011-12 is certainly surprising. The conference has legitimately been the country's best. There are four schools alive in the NCAA Tournament, joining the Big East in supplying a quarter of the remaining field. Had Purdue not imploded against Kansas, it would've been five.

Quietly, the Big Ten has been mounting a comeback and seeing former powers restored. In 2009 and 2010, the league finally beat the ACC in the aforementioned challenge, albeit by the narrowest of margins (6-5).

This past November, they drubbed the ACC, 8-4, and by then, many were already of the opinion that has become gospel today -- the Big Ten is back!

Tom Crean has been rebuilding Indiana in hopes of returning the program to the spotlight. That Hoosiers team arrived this season. Michigan has been revitalized by head coach John Beilein, even with the early exit to Ohio this past weekend. Purdue has had dynamite teams under Matt Painter, who got the most out of his recently eliminated version. Tubby Smith has had some success at Minnesota and is one game from an NIT Final Four. And Bill Carmody has painfully gotten closer and closer to taking Northwestern to the NCAAs.

All the while, Tom Izzo, Thad Matta and the unheralded Bo Ryan, three of the best instructors in the game, have set the tone. Positive results seemed inevitable, but until they actually came to fruition, it never seemed to come together collectively.

Since Michigan's 1989 title, the only school to bring a national championship back to the Big Ten was the memorable Mateen Cleaves-led Michigan State squad in 2000. The Spartans have been the lone participant in a title game this century, while the Horizon League, a baby brother of a regional league, has sent Butler there in successive tournaments.

Considering this has been the season where the Big Ten's rebirth has become glaring, the best way to make it official is for one of its teams to cut down the nets in New Orleans this April. With four schools scattered among three regions, odds are decent that one breaks through.

Here's a rundown of the candidates and their Tournament Odds at Bovada.lv

Indiana (27-10 SU, 18-10 ATS)

Reasons they can run four more: Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller are young, but kids these days are naïve enough to not get tripped up by inexperience. The sophomore wing is an elite athlete whose confidence is growing by the day, while the other is a versatile 7-foot freshman whose skills can be refined, but whose instincts can't be taught. Both will be special, so there's an outside chance they can play at an elite level for two more weeks. Christian Watford, Will Sheehey and Jordan Hulls each have terrific basketball IQs and complement the two whiz kids beautifully. Crean has successfully created a bunker mentality and has this team believing it can accomplish anything.

Reasons they're on borrowed time: The Hoosiers depth took a major hit when backup guard Verdell Jones blew out a knee in a Big Ten Tournament win over Penn State, but they've persevered thus far and overcame the disadvantage against a VCU team built to exploit that kind of thing. Kentucky, already carrying a revenge factor into Friday's regional semifinal, figures to probe at that potential Achilles' Heel and is more equipped than anyone in the country to succeed at doing so. To win it all, Indiana will have to sweep through Atlanta and New Orleans. Considering it was 0-11 in true road games last year and were just 5-6 this past season, that seems unlikely.

Odds to win the NCAA Tournament: 35/1
Odds to win the South Regional: 6/1

Michigan State (29-7 SU, 23-11 ATS)

Reasons they can run four more: I've heard Draymond Green compared to Magic Johnson numerous times this season and have been convinced it's not hyperbole. No, Green isn't the second coming of Magic. That's an unfair label to put on anyone. Still, he leads like the school's most famous alum once did. His impact in that department is immeasurable. Sparty defends with pride, rebounds relentlessly and enjoys sharing the ball. His game is the epitome of what glue means in basketball-speak. Keith Appling is inconsistent, but there's no faster guard in the field and Green has helped increase his comfort level. Putting a winner like Green under the thumb of Izzo means it's been impossible to impose your will on Michigan State. They'll fight you every second.

Reasons they're on borrowed time: Losing Green for any substantial part of a game would likely spell doom for the Spartans, as they're tied to one player as the key to their success more than any other remaining Big Ten entry. Losing terrific freshman Branden Dawson, a willing defender and rebounder, to an ACL tear in late February means Derrick Nix and Adreian Payne have had to step up with no safety net inside. They've been great thus far and are in a region where size won't play a major role, but that's not likely to remain the case if and when they reach New Orleans.

Odds to win the NCAA Tournament: 13/2
Odds to win West Regional: 6/5

Ohio State (29-7 SU, 17-14 ATS)

Reasons they can run four more: When they get all the individual parts revved up and jelling, there's no team more potent offensively than the Buckeyes. Aaron Craft is the best two-way point guard in the conference, a sticky defender who runs the offense seamlessly, rarely forcing the issue and getting the right guys the ball where they want it. The big dog is Jared Sullinger, whose back-to-the-basket game creates opportunities for shooters. Mix in the size and matchup issues DeShaun Thomas and William Buford create and you can see why opponents have to pick their poison when striving for containment.

Reasons they're on borrowed time: Sullinger has lacked burst over the past few weeks and doesn't seem to be 100 percent. Can he rise to the occasion as the level of competition increases? Unlike years past when Dallas Lauderdale was around to play enforcer, this year's team relies on the raw Evan Ravenel and can't overpower you inside or survive Sullinger getting in foul trouble. Like Michigan State did in the Big Ten Championship, teams are going to play off sophomore Lenzelle Smith and dare him to beat them from the perimeter. He must be up to task, but the verdict is out on whether he's ready.

Odds to win the NCAA Tournament: 11/2
Odds to win the East Regional: 11/10

Wisconsin (26-9 SU, 18-14 ATS)

Reasons they can run four more: Root canals don't feel good, so hearing that comparison come up when coaches reference going up against the Badgers defense gives you an idea of the driving force behind Ryan's team. It's a lock that they'll contest everything, methodically slow the pace and force you out of your comfort zone. Senior Jordan Taylor plays like a 30-year-old and is rarely rattled running the show, while unheralded center Jared Berggren is a legitimate 6-foot-11 game-changer whose athleticism and ability are tough to contend with. He's certainly a candidate to go from relative unknown to household name in two weeks time.

Reasons they're on borrowed time: If Taylor is not knocking down his jumper, this team lacks a true go-to scorer. That can be an advantage in that team ball keeps a defense from focusing on locking up an individual, but it can also hurt you when you're desperate for a basket and have to send out an APB for someone capable of easily getting you one. Getting by top-seeded Syracuse and likely East regional finalist Ohio State in Boston is unquestionably the most difficult road any of the four Big Ten schools have in getting to New Orleans.

Odds to win the NCAA Tournament: 30/1
Odds to win the East Regional: 4/1

[StarDust Bum]

Books, Bettors draw

March 19, 2012

March Madness came and left Las Vegas with the bettors getting the best of the sports books which is really saying something because the first week of NCAA Tournament always produces a consistent win for the house. For the sports books, each day of the tournament turned in vastly different results.
Thursday was day for the favorites to shine going 11-5 against the spread, which will always translate into a big day for the bettors.

On Friday, the sports books struck back as the underdogs were barking with big upsets, two of which saw a pair of No. 2 sees in Duke and Missouri get knocked out.

As a 21-point favorite, Missouri’s spread became the largest ever to lose outright in a tournament game. And while not many bettors took the 50/1 (Bet $100 to win $5,000) money-line price on Norfolk State to win outright, but plenty of large money came in on the favorite (-9900).

They call bettors who take losses like that “Bridge Jumpers.” What the outright loss also did was kill several money-line parlays that crafty bettors like to throw in to increase their payouts because “they can’t lose.”

When Saturday rolled around, it was back to the same chalky teams that beat the sports books on Thursday. And the results were almost identical, a losing day for the house.

Syracuse, Kentucky, Marquette and Louisville were used in a popular four-team parlay with 10-to-1 odds that the books couldn’t recover from.

That left Sunday as being the money day to decide the fate of the weekend for the sports books. Not only did they have to beat down the eight favorites on the day, but they also had to stifle the extended risk from Saturday’s parlays that carried over into their final legs Sunday.

Fortunately for them, the sports books got out okay with the favorites going 3-5 ATS, but it wasn’t the type of weekend they had hoped for.

“We ended up showing a slight win for the weekend, but I think we could call it draw,” said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne, “They (bettors) won two days and we won two days. The big winner of the weekend was Las Vegas and its image as whole. I think the city offered the good time bettors had hoped for.”

Most sports books reported gains in handle of up to 10% over the same weekend last year. Part of that is due to the economy looking like it’s turning around, but most of it can be attributed to bettors faring well and churning their winnings over into the next games at a higher rate.

We could call it a draw for the sports book, but it should be considered a win for the bettors just because draws don’t happen on these tournament weekends where the books rarely hold less than 8%.

So congratulations to all of you out there who walked, flew or drove away from Las Vegas with a positive experience and a wad of cash in the pocket.

[StarDust Bum]

Analyzing the Top Seeds

March 21, 2012

Chalk originated as a horse racing term and is well-known gambling vernacular, but it's wild to hear how loosely it rolls off people's tongues this time of year.

If you're in a bracket pool, riding chalk is met with instant ridicule, as if going against the grain is a badge of honor. It's apparently more interesting to fill out a bracket highlighting your Lehigh-Duke upset pick than it is to place four No. 1s into the Sweet 16.

Pat yourself on the back if you chose the boring approach and had them all alive at this point in the tournament. Stop and immediately start worrying if you chose them all to reach New Orleans. That has only happened once (2008) in the entire history of the tournament. By contrast, a Final Four without a single No. 1 has now occurred three times after last year's upset-filled tourney blasted them all prior to Houston, making it twice in six years that the Final Four has gone on without a top seed.

Bank on no repeat performance. Despite an exciting season filled with great stories like Murray State, this has been a top-heavy year for the truly elite. The selection committee released its seeds this year and they’ve been proven correct.

From Thursday-to-Sunday, one or two may be weeded out, but I'm of the opinion that it's more likely that we'll get a repeat of '06 and see them all get there than we have of watching them each get bounced. Here's a closer look at the No. 1s and the obstacles they face.

Big Blue Chalk: Kentucky is the chalkiest team available for good reason. Everyone among the rotation's top six has an NBA future, while No. 7, freshman Kyle Wiltjer, could develop into that kind of player down the road. If John Calipari ends up cutting down the nets, the Wildcats will be in the conversation among the most talented championship teams in college basketball history. Anthony Davis has changed the game around the rim the way Greg Oden and Emeka Okafor did during their recent Final Four runs. Marquis Teague looks like a better prospect than brother Jeff with his deadly speed and more accurate jumper. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist's desire to do whatever it takes has scouts drooling. Terrence Jones has lottery-level talent, while wings Doron Lamb and Darius Miller have combined for 123 3-pointers at a shooting clip of over 42 percent to keep defenses honest. Calipari has done of one of his best jobs in battling complacency and ridding the team of bad habits, which is why even when Iowa State rallied to tie that third round clash, Kentucky never panicked. The Wildcats simply took their game up a few notches to a place teams at this level aren't supposed to reach.

Final four reasons to balk:

1. Jones and Lamb felt the sting of losing in last year's Final Four, but have rarely stepped up to the plate to lead by example, leaving that role to senior Darius Miller and the anomaly that is Kidd-Gilchrist. Do they have it in them to turn that pain into fuel? Right now, the verdict is out.

2. Davis has really grown comfortable taking the 18-20 footer, but that's not where UK needs him. Teams will increasingly attempt to bait him into that easy out.

3. The Calipari curse, perhaps tied to his cleaning up based on one-and-done, has kept him from delivering a championship to Memphis or Kentucky yet. He probably still cringes watching former Kansas Jayhawks standout Mario Chalmers with the Heat.

4. You know Kentucky's defense will be there, but in the Mar. 11 loss to Vandy, a similar scoring drought to the one that cost them in last year's national semifinal peeked out and reminded us where this team is most vulnerable. Indiana is one of the highest-scoring teams left in the field and is capable of taking advantage of an off-shooting night.

Green Chalk: Draymond Green originally committed to Kentucky, but it's almost poetic that a player with his last name has made such an impact at Michigan State. Kentucky’s Davis is going No. 1 in the NBA draft, but Day Day can be this year's Kemba Walker, a force that simply won't be denied. Help has come in the form of frontcourt mates, Adreian Payne and Derrick Nix, who have helped the Spartans rack up an 86-42 advantage in points in the paint through the first few rounds. Brandon Wood has stepped up and shot 8-of-14 from the field in helping to create space, while blur of a point guard Keith Appling has been consistent and generates mismatches with his speed. Saint Louis nearly tripped up the Spartans thanks to tempo and a few lucky shots to keep things close, but they kept their heads throughout, fed off Green and exhibited championship composure. They've already claimed one tournament in that fashion, edging Ohio State for the Big Ten and their top seed. Tom Izzo has a national championship and another title game appearance, so his influence certainly helps.

Final four reasons to balk:

1. Rick Pitino has never lost a Sweet 16 game, a perfect 9-0 in his distinguished career. His Louisville squad is up first for Izzo, a spectacular 7-2 in regional quarterfinals.

2. The Spartans are so reliant on Green to lead them that he won't be able to leave the floor for more than a minute or two. Can he continue to play at such a high level without wearing down? No team's chances are more closely tied to one individual.

3. Considering Michigan State must own the paint, it's disconcerting that Green, Payne and Nix aren't the greatest free-throw shooters. Teams figure to start putting them on the line as opposed to giving up dunks and layups, so the trio has to improve on a collective 68 percent FT shooting. Thus far in the tournament, they're 8-of-12, nearly right at that dubious average.

4. The loss of Branden Dawson, a key figure at power forward for most of the season, figures to catch up with Sparty at some point. Izzo questioned his team's ability to handle complicated matchups going forward, knowing what a luxury the strong, rangy freshman offered.

Carolina Blue Chalk: North Carolina is the only team in the country that can match Kentucky's vast frontcourt talent, especially now that John Henson looks to be fine after his wrist scare. Of course, now another wrist injury has Tar Heel nation worried sick, as it remains unknown whether point guard Kendall Marshall can make it back and how effective he can be after fracturing a bone in his non-shooting hand. Roy Williams knows what it takes to win at this level and had his team playing at his desired pace, thriving on secondary breaks and using their skill and athleticism to run away from opponents. The offense can run through the sublime Harrison Barnes, while Reggie Bullock and P.J. Hairston are capable of stepping up in increased minutes. No one is going to cry for the Tar Heels about losing their point guard considering the talent they've assembled.

Final four reasons to balk:

1. Marshall's wrist is a bad break, literally. Even if he returns and is able to play with the screw inserted during Monday's surgery, he'll be affected by the injury. It may not even bother his shot, but dribbling, comfort level and mobility won't be what we've grown accustomed to seeing from him. He's dished out 351 assists this season and was 35-for-60 from the field in March prior to getting hurt against Creighton. It's a serious blow.

2. Even when Marshall was perfectly healthy, backcourt depth was a concern. Having lost Dexter Strickland and Leslie McDonald earlier this season, the Tar Heels were already down to relying on 19-year-old freshman Stillman White, shooting less than 25 percent from the field. Ideally, he wouldn't play in competitive situations at this stage of his career, but Williams has no choice but to throw him out there.

3. Barnes should already be playing in the NBA, but has only shown the killer instinct that would guarantee his greatness in flashes. He's capable of putting UNC on his back, but no one can be sure he will.

4. After playing Cinderella Ohio in the Round of 16, Williams will see either Mark Gottfried and ACC rival North Carolina State, which nearly beat him on Mar. 10 or Kansas successor Bill Self in the regional final. Both would have good ideas of how to take advantage of UNC's Marshall-related deficiencies.

Orange Chalk: Syracuse has overcome a scandal-filled year and actually set a school-record for wins. When you consider the teams Jim Boeheim has put out there over his 36-year career, that's pretty special. This Orange team is like an octopus, able to squeeze the life out of you with anyone of its tentacles, although it is missing their biggest one in 7-footer Fab Melo. Boeheim has recruited a team with savvy, ball skills and length, perfectly suited to run his 2-3 zone and execute a balanced offense. Even with Melo out, the Orange rolled through the incredibly deep Big East losing only once in league play before an upset loss in the conference tourney. Scoop Jardine, Kris Joseph, Brandon Triche, Dion Waiters, CJ Fair and James Southerland have now each taken 200 or more shots. That type of balance is a nightmare to prepare for.

Final four reasons to balk:

1. Melo allowed the Orange to rebound effectively despite playing zone and blocked three shots per game. His absence has been downplayed by Boeheim and his teammates because no one wants to throw him under the bus for flirting with ineligibility, but there's no question that blame will find itself his way if and when the team is eliminated.

2. The Orange led the country in turnovers created for most of the season, so even though you love how disruptive they can be, a team that relies on miscues for easy offense and would be lost without those points in transition is difficult to trust.

3. Boeheim's style is vulnerable to teams that can shoot the ball from beyond the arc well, so while they can thank Wisconsin for eliminating Vanderbilt, the Orange must be aware that the Badgers have hit 10 3-pointers in each of their tournament wins. Should they survive, they'll get an Ohio State team that strokes it well or a Cincinnati squad that led the Big East in 3-point makes.

4. Jardine keyed the big win over Kansas State with his terrific play, getting into the lane at will, setting up teammates and finishing with 16 points and eight assists. He's the straw that stirs the drink, so it's downright scary that he's shooting a career-worst 53.8 percent from the free-throw line. If he doesn't solve his issues, that will ultimately cost Syracuse dearly.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAA Regional Action Tips In Boston, Phoenix

More than 2,600 miles stand between Boston and Phoenix, but the two cities will be joined at the hip Thursday night when regional action begins in the 2012 NCAA Tournament.

Regional semifinal action in the East and West tips another big weekend of college basketball betting. The first three contests on Thursday pit Big East against Big Ten, with the nightcap finding a fourth Big East squad taking on an SEC crew.

Underdogs prevailed in last year's regional semifinals, winning five of the eight games straight up and against the spread. The 'under' scored a 6-2 advantage in those contests.

EAST REGIONAL
Boston, TD Garden

(4) Wisconsin vs. (1) Syracuse
TIP: 7:15 p.m. (ET) CBS
SPREAD: Syracuse -4
TOTAL: 121
PREVIEW: Two hard-headed coaching styles collide to get things rolling. Early betting on the contest has been equally stubborn with little or no movement on the spread and total. A few 3½'s are beginning to creep in, but Syracuse -4 remains the consensus number a little more than 24 hours before tip-off.

Wisconsin's ability to pull off the upset will come down to finding a hot hand or two from long-range. The Badgers sank 10 from behind the arc in wins over Montana and Vanderbilt to reach the Sweet 16, but it took them 33 attempts to get those 30 points vs. the Commodores, and they'll need greater accuracy than that against the Orange.

One reason Syracuse hasn't missed Fab Melo so far is the play of James Southerland off the bench. The junior forward combined for 30 points and 14 boards in the two victories vs. UNC-Asheville and Kansas State, well above his 6.6 PPG and 3.3 RPG season averages.

(6) Cincinnati vs. (2) Ohio State
TIP: 9:45 p.m. (ET) CBS
SPREAD: Ohio St. -7½
TOTAL: 129½
PREVIEW: The spread has remained steady in early wagering, but the total has dropped off from the 131-point opener. Both of Cincinnati's tournament games have finished 'under' the numbers (129½ and 128½), in addition to the Bearcats' Big East finale vs. Louisville two weeks ago, while Ohio State's two tourney triumphs each went 'over' and the Buckeyes enter this matchup on an 8-1 run above the total.

It's been a little more than five years since the two in-state powers last met in Indianapolis during the Dec. 2006 Wooden Tradition. A 13-0 run in the first half highlighted Ohio State's 72-50 rout as 11-point chalk, and the final fell short of the 136½-point total.

WEST REGIONAL
Phoenix, US Airways Center

(4) Louisville vs. (1) Michigan State
TIP: 7:47 p.m. (ET) TBS
SPREAD: Michigan St. -5
TOTAL: 125
PREVIEW: Louisville and the 'under' has been a money-making combination for bettors the past couple of weeks. The Cardinals have won and covered their last six since the end of the regular season, with five of those games finishing below the total and nine of their last 10 failing to reach the scoreboard hurdle.

Michigan State has won five straight, but saw a 4-0 ATS stretch stopped in last Sunday's 65-61 victory vs. Saint Louis who was getting seven from the oddsmakers. In contrast to Louisville's trend to the 'under,' both of the Spartans' tourney games have jumped the total, with four of their last six going 'over.'

The Spartans and Cardinals last met in the Midwest Regional Final of the 2009 NCAA Tournament when Louisville was the top seed of that bracket and State was seeded second. Then-freshman Draymond Green came off the MSU bench to grab 10 rebounds in a 64-52 win that closed with the Spartans getting 6½ points.

(7) Florida vs. (3) Marquette
TIP: 10:17 p.m. (ET) TBS
SPREAD: Marquette -1½
TOTAL: 146
PREVIEW: The highest total on Thursday's board might also be the best chance for an 'over' if season trends mean anything. Marquette is 19-12 to the 'over' heading into the matchup, and 8-3 that direction the last 11 games, while Florida is 18-12 to the high side on the season, though the Gators have seen both of their tourney games finish below the number.

A quick check of schedules reveals the Golden Eagles and Gators played five games against four common opponents – Norfolk State, Ole Miss, LSU and Vanderbilt – with Marquette meeting Norfolk State twice and Florida playing two against Vanderbilt. The Gators went 4-1 in those five affairs (2-3 ATS) while the Eagles were 3-2 in the contests and 1-3 ATS (one of the Norfolk State games failing to make the NCAA odds list).