The Bum's March Madness All You Need To Know And Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday's NCAAB Best Bets in BOLD:

Tuesday, March 13

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Western Kentucky - 6:30 PM ET Mississippi Valley State +4.5 500
Mississippi Valley State - Over 137.5 500

Massachusetts - 7:00 PM ET Massachusetts +6.5 500
Mississippi St. - Over 152 500

Robert Morris - 7:00 PM ET Robert Morris +5 500
Indiana St. - Over 129 500

Tennessee St. - 7:00 PM ET Tennessee St. +6 500
Mercer - Under 127.5 500

Coastal Carolina - 7:00 PM ET Coastal Carolina +10.5 500
Old Dominion - Over 130.5 500

Tennessee Tech - 7:00 PM ET Tennessee Tech +9.5 500
Georgia St - Over 137 500

McNeese St. - 7:00 PM ET Toledo -5.5 500
Toledo - Under 138.5 500

Stony Brook - 7:15 PM ET Seton Hall -12 500
Seton Hall - Under 127 500

Dayton - 7:30 PM ET Iowa -4 500
Iowa - Under 148.5 500

Savannah State - 8:00 PM ET Tennessee -14 500
Tennessee - Under 122 500

Princeton - 8:00 PM ET Princeton +4 500
Evansville - Under 137.5 500

Wis.-Milwaukee - 8:00 PM ET Texas Christian -4 500
Texas Christian - Under 138.5 500

Iona - 9:00 PM ET Iona +2 500
Brigham Young - Over 162.5 500

Akron - 9:00 PM ET Akron +6.5 500
Northwestern - Over 142 500

Utah Valley - 9:00 PM ET Utah Valley +13 500
Weber St. - Over 142.5 500

Marshall - 9:15 PM ET Middle Tennessee St. -5.5 500
Middle Tennessee St. - Over 136 500

Louisiana State - 9:30 PM ET Louisiana State +7 500
Oregon - Over 136.5 500

Texas-Arlington - 10:00 PM ET Texas-Arlington +9 500
Washington - Over 156 500

Washington St. - 10:00 PM ET San Francisco -5 500
San Francisco - Over 147 500

Cleveland St. - 11:00 PM ET Stanford -6 500
Stanford - Over 130 500

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Best Bets:

Tuesday, March 13

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 7:00 PM ET Orlando +4 500
Orlando - Over 189.5 500

Toronto - 7:00 PM ET Toronto +3.5 500
Cleveland - Over 194.5 500

Portland - 7:00 PM ET Indiana -3.5 500
Indiana - Under 191 500

L.A. Lakers - 8:00 PM ET L.A. Lakers +1 500
Memphis - Over 183 500

Houston - 8:00 PM ET Oklahoma City -11 500
Oklahoma City - Over 204 500

Washington - 8:30 PM ET Washington +12.5 500
Dallas - Over 200.5 500

Atlanta - 9:00 PM ET Atlanta +5 500
Denver - Under 195.5 500

Golden State - 10:00 PM ET Golden State +2.5 500
Sacramento - Over 205.5 500

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NHL Best Bets:

Tuesday, March 13

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Washington - 7:00 PM ET Washington -118 500
NY Islanders - Over 5.5 500

New Jersey - 7:00 PM ET Philadelphia -118 500
Philadelphia - Over 5.5 500

Carolina - 7:30 PM ET Carolina +183 500
NY Rangers - Over 5 500

Boston - 7:30 PM ET Tampa Bay +143 500
Tampa Bay - Over 5.5 500

Toronto - 7:30 PM ET Toronto +147 500
Florida - Under 5 500

Dallas - 8:00 PM ET Minnesota +147 500
Minnesota - Under 5 500

St. Louis - 8:30 PM ET St. Louis -111 500
Chicago - Over 5 500

San Jose - 9:30 PM ET San Jose +118 500
Calgary - Over 5 500

Detroit - 10:30 PM ET Los Angeles -126 500
Los Angeles - Under 5 500

[StarDust Bum]

South Florida Meets Cal In First Four Fight

The first full day of March Madness is less than 48 hours away and the Kentucky Wildcats are the clear favorite according to the oddsmakers.

Kentucky is the 5/2 ‘chalk’ despite having its 24-game winning streak snapped in the finals of the SEC Tournament. Next on the list are North Carolina (6/1), Ohio State (6/1), Michigan State (17/2), Missouri (10/1), Syracuse (10/1) and Kansas (12/1).

All of those teams are not surprisingly No. 1 or No. 2 seeds. As you can see from the table below, No. 1 seeds have been a great future odds value since the tourney expanded to 64 teams in 1985, winning 16 of 27 championships (59.3 percent). The No. 2 and No. 3 seeds have four titles apiece, while any other seed winning is an anomaly.





SEED

TITLES


MOST RECENT



1


16


Duke 2010



2


4


UConn 2004



3


4


UConn 2011



4


1


Arizona 1994



6


1


Kansas 1988



8


1


Villanova 1985



This column is also looking at a busy Wednesday that includes two First Four games for the NCAA Tournament and a full slate in the NIT.

Vermont Catamounts (+3) vs. Lamar Cardinals
Wednesday 6:30 p.m. (ET) on truTV

This battle of No. 16 teams will take place at the University of Dayton and the total is 129 points. The winner gets to face powerhouse North Carolina in not-no-neutral Greensboro.

Vermont (23-11 SU, 3-1 ATS) is the America East champion after beating Stony Brook 51-43 as 3-point underdogs in the tourney final. The Catamounts (13-3) finished behind Stony Brook (14-2) in conference play, but have now made March Madness for the fifth time, going 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS previously. They upset No. 4 seed Syracuse 60-57 in OT back in 2005.

Lamar (23-11 SU, 5-1 ATS) has won six games in a row, including three in the Southland Conference Tournament. The winning streak came right after a postgame tirade by coach Pat Knight (son of Bobby) which seems to have inspired the team. The Cardinals are making their sixth tournament appearance, but first since 2000.

The Cardinals’ defense tightened up the last six games at 57.3 PPG compared to 65.4 PPG for the season. They are undersized, but a senior-laden group, and will present some matchup problems for the Catamounts.

South Florida Bulls (+2) vs. California Bears
Wednesday 9:00 p.m. (ET) on truTV

This second First Four game is also at the University of Dayton and features two No. 12 seeds from major conferences. The total is 115 points and the winner could make some noise next round against No. 5 Temple from the Atlantic 10.

The Bulls (20-13 SU, 16-14 ATS) finished tied-for-fourth in the Big East regular season with a 12-6 mark (11-7 ATS). They also won one conference tourney game, but had to sweat out an NCAA bid after a 7-6 (4-6 ATS) non-conference mark. This is South Florida’s first tournament bid since 1992 and third overall.

California (24-9 SU, 17-14 ATS) is one of just two Pac-12 schools to make the tourney in an incredibly down year for the conference. Regular season champ Washington got the snub after Colorado won the conference tourney. The Bears are playing in their 17th tournament overall, making it in 2009 and 2010 (going 1-2 SU and ATS). They opened 2010 with a win over No. 9 Louisville (77-62) before losing to No. 1 Duke (68-53).

California’s three-leading scorers all come from the backcourt in Allen Crabbe (15.3 PPG), Jorge Gutierrez (13.1 PPG) and Justin Cobbs (12.9 PPG). Gutierrez was named Player of the Year in the Pac-12, with the team scoring 71.7 PPG in regular season conference play (ranked third).

The Bulls were last in scoring in Big East play (58.3 PPG), but first in points allowed (56.9 PPG). The ‘under’ was 22-8 for them on the season and they will be looking to slow the game down and keep the score in the low 60s at most.

March Madness snubs look for revenge

There are a couple of NCAA snubs that will look to take their frustrations out on NIT opponents on Wednesday. Big East Miami is a No. 2 seed and 11-point favorite over No. 7 Valparaiso from the Horizon League. The Hurricanes will be playing at home at BankUnited Center where they went 13-3 SU and 7-6-1 ATS this season.

No. 3 Drexel is another team who had its bubble burst. The CAA outfit is a 7-point favorite over Central Florida from Conference USA.

[StarDust Bum]

Las Vegas Money Moves

March 14, 2012


Out of the 30 NCAA Tournament games posted at Wynn Las Vegas, only two of the favorites have been bet up to a higher spread with all the others either staying flat or dropping. Of course that could all change as we get closer to game time. Most of the line movement thus far has been from Sharp money looking for the best value of their sides.

Wynn Las Vegas sports book director Johnny Avello has seen a lot of changes cycle through the betting world in his 25 years of setting odds, but has noticed a major change the last six years in the tournament.

“Things have a changed a lot in regards to the quality of teams. The lower seeds have gotten better and the higher seeds have come back to the pack,” says Avello. “You no longer see the 16 and 15 seeds getting 30 or 29-points in a game.”

“I just posted the Kentucky game at minus-25 against Western Kentucky which is four points higher than any of the top seeds.”

Of the top eight seeds, Missouri (-21) is the highest spread with Syracuse down from -18 to -15 ½ because of the news that defensive superstar Fab Melo won’t be playing. The first bets on Missouri game came against them as bettors took the opener of +22 with Norfolk State.

Part of that trend may be because the higher ranked teams have star players that have no intention of sticking around, going to class and developing team chemistry. Whereas some of these smaller schools have kids that have played together three or four years created great continuity. This is how we get the George Mason’s, Butler’s and VCU’s into the Final Four.

Because of the small-lesser known schools have a better shot than years past, professional bettors have been jumping on board with the underdogs looking for the right Cinderella.

“This is a normal process for sharp money,” Avello says, “They’re looking for the best value and it says a lot when their first bets are taking the points.”

The only favorites that have moved up have been UNLV and Michigan State. The Rebels got immediate action laying minus-5 against Pac-12 Champion Colorado. The Spartans, fresh off their Big-10 Championship, moved from an opener of -18 ½ to -20 against LIU-Brooklyn.

The biggest move has seen Harvard money come strong against Vanderbilt. Vandy opened as 8 ½-point favorites and now sits at -5 ½.

Montana action has come in almost as strong. The Grizzlies opened as 11 ½-point ‘dogs to Wisconsin and currently sit at +9.

Again, the bulk of the action will come on Thursday and Friday and in most cases, favorites will be bet by the public who sit and watch the games at the sports book all day. In most cases, these types of bettors play each game close to tip-off with the amount of their wagers dependent upon how they’re day has gone thus far.

If it’s a winning day, the wager is higher than their normal unit bet. If it’s a bad day, the bets are smaller as a trip to the ATM is usually required. In each case, the emotions of the wins and losses are put to extremes thanks to a long a day of drinking.

[StarDust Bum]

Cinderella Squads

March 14, 2012

Over the past few years, Butler and VCU have changed the game.

Consider it a product of the one-and-done era, where top teams are forced to reload by incorporating new talent each season, but mid-majors have not so quietly closed the gap by developing chemistry and cohesion, seeing it translate into unprecedented results this time of year.

It's because of this that a 9-year-old can win your bracket pool. My 3-year-old daughter had Richmond making a run last year due to her fascination with spooky spiders. The unheralded A-10 school reached the Sweet 16.

Neighboring VCU had a longer run, shocking the world by getting all the way to the Final Four, which of course begs the question, who's going to do it this year?

As a rule, there's no way a Top-8 seed should ever qualify as a Cinderella, especially if they don't suffer the same disadvantages of typical mid-majors. That means Wichita State is out, as is MVC roommate Creighton, led by a national Player of the Year candidate in Doug McDermott. If you're the defending champion, underachieving all season and winding up a No. 9 seed doesn't qualify you for a slipper fitting, either. Sorry, UConn.

Here are the eight teams who do meet the admittedly stringent criteria:

SOUTH

Slipper favorite: #10 Xavier - This team absolutely performed below expectations, since the Musketeers were being trumpeted as Final Four candidates prior to their brawl with Cincinnati. Once that adversity hit, the Musketeers wound up fractured. Too many individuals attempted to do their own thing, disrupting the chemistry that keyed the strong start. Xavier looked to be working its way back late in the season, reaching the A-10 Tournament final and allowing Mark Lyons to spark a comeback against Dayton in the quarterfinals as opposed to letting it all ride on Tu Holloway's shoulders. Star freshman Dezmine Wells rose to the challenge and senior center Kenny Frease asserted himself more and started knocking down free throws. Beating Notre Dame won't be easy, but is certainly doable. Taking down Duke in Greensboro would be a chore, but Ryan Kelly might have to sit out the weekend, improving Xavier's chances of reaching the Sweet 16.

Slipper candidate: #12 VCU - No rule against back-to-back Cinderella status, right, Butler? Shaka Smart's Rams can dream about consecutive Final Four appearances given their draw. If they can get past the Shockers, playing Indiana way out in Portland guarantees a fair shot at the Sweet 16. Bradford Burgess, one of the stars of last year's run, will have to lead them. VCU throws off teams with its constant pressure and has enough 3-point shooters capable of getting hot and significantly altering a bracket.

WEST

Slipper favorite: #12 Long Beach State - There aren't many point guards better than Casper Ware in these NCAAs, so when you have a head of the snake as proficient as that senior, you always have a chance. The 49ers went 15-1 in Big West play and rolled through the conference tournament without top forward Larry Anderson, who was resting a knee injury. He's expecting to play against New Mexico, boosting the chances of a team that played seven NCAA Tournament participants during the regular season. Head coach Dan Monson has had success this time of year and is one of the most unheralded talents in his profession, while the region also helps, since an upset of the Lobos means a likely date with Indiana, which is roughly 2,000 miles from home.

Slipper candidate: #9 Saint Louis - Rick Majerus has put together a veteran team that prides itself on defense and being tougher than you are. Forward Brian Conklin might as well be playing with a hard hat on, while Australian Cody Ellis is one of the more versatile athletes in this tournament. If guards Kwamain Mitchell and Mike McCall can hit enough shots, the Billikens will be a tough out.

MIDWEST

Slipper favorite: #13 Ohio - D.J. Cooper is another point guard whose game you have to see to appreciate, so expect him to surprise those who haven't. He's small, generously listed at 5-foot-11 but a few inches shorter, but has a fearless game and typically gets himself and teammates going. He'll give freshman Trey Burke all he can handle in the Bobcats opener, especially if his supporting cast is knocking down shots. Nick Kellogg, the son of CBS analyst and former NBA player, Clark, is one of the deadliest shooters in the country. The sophomore guard knocked down 77 3-pointers and shot 42 percent from beyond the arc, never shying away from a big moment. If Ohio can shock Michigan, beating the Temple-Cal/USF winner is manageable.

Slipper candidate: #14 Belmont - Speaking of 3-pointers, the Bruins utilize the game's great equalizer as well as anyone in the country and have already established themselves as one of the teams you don't want to see pop up in your pairing. The A-Sun champs become Georgetown's nightmare, so it's no surprise shrewd oddsmakers have made the Hoyas a four-point favorite in what screams, trap line. Belmont opened the season losing to Duke, 77-76, and feature three players who have hit at least 40 3-pointers. One of them, Ian Clark, is a guard who can stand out in any conference in the country.

EAST

Slipper favorite: #12 Harvard - Ending a drought of 66 years between Ivy League titles, Harvard isn't just happy to be in the NCAA Tournament. Not only does Tommy Amaker know what he's doing, he brings in a veteran team that packs size, solid guards and obviously, intelligence. The Crimson are 26-4 and held Florida State to 41 points when the teams met in the Bahamas way back in November. As nice as a tropical getaway might sound, Harvard can actually head home to the Boston regional if it can slip past Vanderbilt and the Wisconsin/Montana winner, supplying more Cinderella ammunition.

Slipper candidate: #11 Texas - The Longhorns aren't your typical longshot, especially since guards J'Covan Brown and Myck Kabongo are likely to play at the next level. Still, Texas was overshadowed by a handful of Big 12 teams and needed a late push just to earn an at-large bid. With Cincinnati up first and a date against the FSU/St. Bonaventure winner promised after that, Rick Barnes' squad has a path they can navigate if they play to their potential.

[StarDust Bum]

Consensus Final Four

March 14, 2012

Filling out the NCAA Tournament brackets is always a head-scratcher as the toughest part is figuring out the upsets and who will make the Final Four. The championship in April takes place at the Superdome in New Orleans, as top-ranked Kentucky seems like a team that will be playing in the Big Easy. However, the road is anything but easy for several of the top teams, including Syracuse, Michigan State, and North Carolina. We caught up with some of VegasInsider's college basketball handicappers to see their recommendations for the Final Four.

Nine of the 11 handicappers polled picked Kentucky to represent the Southeast Regional, as the Wildcats would likely have to knock off two of these three impressive teams (Indiana, Baylor, and Duke). Jimmy Boyd feels that the Wildcats have too much firepower for their competition, "Kentucky is perhaps the best defensive team in the nation. It ranked 10th in the country in field goal percentage defense (39.1 percent) last season when it made a Final Four run and coach John Calipari has gotten even more out of his team this year. The Wildcats lead the country in field goal percentage defense, only allowing their foes to shoot 36.8 percent. Freshman phenom Anthony Davis is a big reason why. He averages 10.1 rebounds a contest and 4.6 blocks per game. He has the ability to guard smaller players on the perimeter and is great in help defense. Davis has also established himself as a versatile scoring threat."

Meanwhile, the team that knocked off Kentucky in the SEC championship is turning into a hot pick to make the Final Four. Brian Edwards believes that this is Vanderbilt's year to make a run to New Orleans, "In terms of crowd noise, that's basically a road win over the Wildcats, whose rabid fan base always descends on the annual event (which took place in New Orleans). The Commodores had already waged a pair of 40-minute slugfests against a UK team that's the tourney's No. 1 overall seed and is widely considered the most talented team in America. Kevin Stallings has a senior-laded squad that's been snake-bitten in the last two NCAA Tournaments, losing at the buzzer to Murray St. two years ago and in the final minute to Richmond last season. Therefore, hunger won't be an issue for Vandy, nor will confidence after the win over Kentucky.

Tony Stoffo sees Missouri as the team that will cut down the nets after taking home the Big 12 tournament championship before heading to the SEC next season, "The Tigers are a guard-driven, up-tempo offense. Their super dynamic guard play will get them past Michigan State into the Final 4. Missouri doesn't turn the ball over as they are seventh in the country in fewest turnovers per game at 10.5. I really like their quickness and perimeter play with Dixon, English, Pressey, and Ratcliffe in the inside. Add in that there isn't much size in their bracket - ensures that they move on. Plus with the chemistry that they have makes them my surprise Tournament Champion here this year."

From the sleeper standpoint, there are several clubs that can pull off surprises and advance past the first weekend. Joe Nelson believes that New Mexico will make some noise in the West regional as a five-seed, "The Mountain West was a very tough conference this season and New Mexico came out on top in both the regular season and in the conference tournament. The efficiency numbers on both sides of the ball are excellent and the Lobos are 25-4 in the last 29 games (not to mention going 22-8 ATS on the season). New Mexico will be the only real contender in a loaded West region that is geographically a western team and they would have a substantial venue advantage if they can get to Phoenix for the Sweet 16 (possibly vs. 1 seed Michigan State)."

Meanwhile, St. Louis has made tremendous strides inside the Atlantic-10, while picking up a nine seed in the West Regional. Bruce Marshall feels that the Billikens can go very far in this tournament, "Reminiscent of Rick Majerus' best Utah teams, with solid defense, good backcourt leadership in Kwamain Mitchell (much like Andre Miller provided for Majerus at Utah), and an inside presence in Brian Conklin (though not as big as Michael Doleac from Majerus' Utah final team, Conklin plays bigger than his 6-6 size on the blocks). The Billikens can control the pace on anybody. If the Bills get by Memphis in the first round they likely get Michigan State, a game likely played into the 50's and a very tough matchup for the Spartans. Past that, SLU would eventually have to get by Mizzou or Marquette (one of Majerus' former employers from his hometown) and would be able to slow down either and make it a very uncomfortable game for the Tigers or Golden Eagles."

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday Afternoon Games

March 14, 2012

The second round of the NCAA Tournament begins on Thursday with a full card of 16 games to wager on. We'll take a look here at the eight day contests, including three Big East teams taking the court (Syracuse, Marquette, and Louisville). The day begins in Louisville with one of the nation's biggest surprises looking to keep up their magical season.

[11] Colorado State vs. [6] Murray State (-4, 135 ½) - 12:15 PM EST

The Racers enter the tournament with a resounding 30-1 record, while claiming both the Ohio Valley regular season and conference tournament titles. Murray State is roughly a four-hour drive from KFC Yum Center in Louisville, where the Racers' second round game takes place against Colorado State. The Rams claimed an at-large berth out of the Mountain West at 20-11, as CSU cashed in seven of its final eight games of the season. Colorado State won only two of its nine games away from Ft. Collins in MWC play, including losses at Boise State and TCU. Murray State's lone loss came to Tennessee State in early February, as the Racers compiled a 9-3 ATS record as a single-digit favorite this season.

[9] Southern Miss vs. [8] Kansas State (-5, 133 ½) - 12:40 PM EST

In one of the more intriguing matchups on Thursday, the Wildcats and Golden Eagles will play for the right to likely take on top-seeded Syracuse in the third round. K-State handled Missouri twice, while also knocking off Baylor in Waco as 7 ½-point underdogs. Frank Martin's club put together a 7-9 ATS ledger in the favorite role, while failing to cover in the 3-5 pointspread range against West Virginia, Texas, and Oklahoma. Southern Miss didn't cash tickets in its final seven games of the season, even though six of those contests came in the 'chalk' role. The Golden Eagles did push the pace with a 10-2 'over' run the final 12 games, while scoring at least 75 points six times.

[13] Davidson vs. [4] Louisville (-7 ½, 138 ½) - 1:40 PM EST

This will be a rough wake-up call for the Wildcats and Cardinals, who tip things off at 10:40 AM local time at the Rose Garden in Portland. Louisville grabbed the Big East tournament crown with an ugly victory over Cincinnati, capping off a run of four wins in four days. The Cardinals are in the Big Dance for the sixth straight season, while trying to win their opening game after losing the last two against Cal (2010) and Murray State (2011). Davidson captured the automatic berth after winning the Southern Conference title, as the Wildcats finished 19-2 in conference play. Four seasons after making a run to the Elite Eight, Davidson's signature victory this season came at Kansas as 13-point 'dogs, avenging the loss to the Jayhawks that preventing the Wildcats from going to the Final Four in 2008. The Wildcats fell to Wichita State, Vanderbilt, and Duke in non-conference play, but all three games finished 'over' the total.

[13] Montana vs. [4] Wisconsin (-9, 118 ½) - 2:10 PM EST

The first game in Albuquerque isn't a sexy one by any stretch, as the grind-it-out Badgers battle Montana. Wisconsin fell to eventual Big 10 champ Michigan State in the semifinals of the conference tournament, but Bo Ryan's team has won 12 of their past 16 games. However, the Badgers aren't profiting over the last 20 contests by posting a 7-13 ATS mark, while going 2-5 ATS the last seven games as a favorite. Montana is back in the tournament for the first time since 2010 as the Grizzlies claimed the Big Sky title, while winning each of its final 14 games. The signature non-conference victory for Montana came against Long Beach State, who is a 12-seed in the West Regional. The Grizzlies own a 15-5 ATS record in their previous 20 lined games, while three of the non-covers came as double-digit favorites.

[14] BYU vs. [3] Marquette (-6) - 2:40 PM EST

The Cougars pulled off a historic tournament triumph by overcoming a 25-point deficit in Tuesday's 78-72 rally over Iona as two-point favorites. BYU makes the short trip from Dayton to Louisville as the Cougars take on a Marquette squad that finished the season at 25-7. The Golden Eagles were a profiting machine early January by posting a 12-5 ATS mark, while going 6-2 ATS in this stretch as a single-digit favorite. BYU took advantage in its first season as a member of the West Coast Conference by compiling a 26-8 record, including a 13-5 conference ledger. The Cougars are in the midst of a 2-5 ATS run, which includes the comeback victory against Iona, while going 1-5 ATS as an underdog this season.

[16] UNC-Asheville vs. [1] Syracuse (-15, 147) - 3:10 PM EST

The Orange is the top seed in the East Regional, but Jim Boeheim's team will be without its center Fab Melo for the entire tournament due to eligibility issues. Syracuse should take care of business against a UNC-Asheville club that claimed the Big South title with a victory over VMI in the conference championship game. The Bulldogs average 81 points per game, while busting the 80-point mark eighteen times this season (including a six-game stretch during conference play). Syracuse lost only two games all season against Notre Dame and Cincinnati, as the Orange struggled down the stretch covering numbers by putting together a 2-7 ATS record the last nine games.

[12] Long Beach State vs. [5] New Mexico (-4, 137) - 4:10 PM EST

The Lobos are one of the hottest ATS teams as of late by covering 12 of their last 14 games, while taking home the title of the Mountain West tournament. New Mexico will have its hands full against Long Beach State, who won both the Big West regular season title and tournament championship at 25-8. The 49ers picked up 18 victories in 19 tries against conference foes, including a 7-2 ATS run down the stretch. New Mexico finished a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS as a favorite of five points or less this season, including wins over tournament teams UNLV, San Diego State, and New Mexico State.

[12] Harvard vs. [5] Vanderbilt (-5 ½, 122 ½) - 4:40 PM EST

Two of the brainier schools in the tournament meet up at the Pit in New Mexico for an intriguing matchup between the SEC and the Ivy League. The Commodores upset top-ranked Kentucky to claim the SEC tournament crown as 7 ½-point underdogs, 71-64. Vandy has dropped its opening game in the NCAA tournament in the last three tries, including a three-point loss to Richmond last March. The Crimson finished off a spectacular season with a 26-4 mark and their first appearance in the Big Dance since 1946, when the field was composed of only eight teams. Harvard stumbled to a 3-8 ATS finish, but all 11 of those games came in the 'chalk' role. The Commodores closed the season at 8-3 ATS, including covers against Kentucky and Florida.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, March 14

Wednesday's Play-in NCAA games
Lamar-Vermont both have coaches in first year at their school; Lamar is one of most experienced teams in country- they were #3 Southland seed, Vermont was #2 in its league, and won true road game to get automatic bid. Southland teams are 2-9 in tournament last nine years, with UTSA winning play-in game LY, its only previous appearance in game. This is first play-in game for America East, which is 1-9 in NCAAs over last nine years, with lone win Vermont's win over Syracuse in '06. Cardinals have five seniors in their rotation; four of top six Vermont players are freshman/sophs. Lamar plays the #121 pace, Vermont #282.

Pac-12 gets killed in media, but since 2007, their teams are 17-7 in first round games (10-2 last three years); Cal Bears won last 16 games when they allowed less than 70 points- they've lost three of last four games, a red flag. South Florida plays great defense, hideous offense; they're very relieved to be here, after being one of last teams announced Sunday nite. Bulls scored less than 60 points in last seven games, splitting their last six. USF turns ball over 22.9% of time, shoot 31% from arc, play #342 pace, so they play ugly games. Three of Cal's top five guys are freshmen or sophs. Three of USF's top six guys are seniors.

Other three tournaments
Short notes on the games in the other tournaments, where motivation is a great x-factor.

Manhattan @ Albany-- MAAC road teams are 4-8 vs spread when line is 3 or less points. Albany split pair with MAAC teams this year, with win over Rider by 9, losing at Siena by 4.

Yale @ Fairfield-- Yale lost its last three road games, by 15-7-21 points. MAAC home favorites are 5-8 against the spread.

Bowling Green @ Oakland-- MAC road underdogs of 6 or less points are 7-10 against spread. Oakland is 0-2 vs MAC teams this year, losing by by 2 to Ohio, by 15 to Western Michigan.

Minnesota @ LaSalle-- Atlantic 14 home favorites of less than 6 points are 11-6 vs spread. Big Dozen road underdogs of 6 or less are 7-3.

Central Florida @ Drexel-- Dragons are one team that feels they should be in NCAAs; CAA home favorites of 7 or less points are 7-8. UCF lost its last four road games, by 4-9-29-31 points.

Northern Iowa @ St Joe's-- MVC road underdogs of 7 or less points are 13-10. A-14 home favorites of 7 or less points are 14-7 vs spread.

Valparaiso @ Miami-- Valpo lost its conference final on its home court; one of its big men was hampered by leg injury. ACC double digit home favorites are 18-16 vs spread.

Bucknell @ Arizona-- Bucknell lost final of its conference tournament on their home court. Arizona lost finals of Pac-12 tourney by a basket. Pac-12 teams were 4-0 vs spread in games played last night.

Nevada @ Oral Roberts-- ORU had won 20 of last 21 games before they got upset in semis of Summit League tourney. WAC road underdogs of 7 or less points are 9-6 vs spread.

Illinois State @ Ole Miss-- Redbirds lost in MVC finals, after upetting Wichita State in semis. SEC single digit home favorites are 9-8 vs spread.

Wofford @ Pitt-- SoCon road underdogs of 10-21 points are 12-19 vs spread this season. Panthers had their worst season in over a decade-- they went 6-15 in their last 21 games.

Quinnipiac @ Penn-- Quakers lost on last day of Ivy League season; it kept them from having playoff game with Harvard. Quinnipiac is #1 offensive rebounding team in country- they beat Yale by 6, in only game against an Ivy League team this season.

Delaware @ Butler-- CAA single digit road underdogs are 9-19 against the spread. Have to question Butler's will to be here after playing for a national title in each of the last two seasons.

North Dakota State @ Wyoming-- MWC home favorites of 7+ points are 17-10 against the spread. Bison lost nine of their last 13 games.

Western Illinois @ Oregon State-- Leathernecks lost Summit League final in OT; they play tough defense, while Oregon State wants to run. Pac 12 double digit home favorites are 17-21 against the spread.

Buffalo @ American-- MAC road teams are 8-13 vs spread if number is 4 or less points. Buffalo's last three games were won by 3 or less points.

North Dakota @ Drake-- Bulldogs went 5-8 in their last 13 games; they shoot only 64.7% from foul line. MVC double digit home favorites are 7-7 vs spread.

Rice @ UL-Lafayette-- Underdogs are 13-6 in C-USA road games when spread is 3 or less points. Ragin' Cajuns beat Central Florida 61-60 in their only game against a C-USA team this season.

UCSB @ Idaho-- Gauchos lost Big West final late Saturday night, now have long road trip up to Idaho, where its probably little colder than Santa Barbara. WAC home teams are 6-10 vs spread if number is 5 or less points.

CS-Bakersfield @ Utah State-- WAC double digit home favorites out of conference are 8-0 against the spread. Bakersfield is 0-5 vs WAC teams this seasonl with three of the five losses by 13+ points.

Fullerton @ LMU-- Titans handed Long Beach its only conference loss, then got upset by UC-Irvine in first round of Big West tourney, just as LMU did in WCC tournament, losing to San Francisco. Fullerton makes 40.4% behind arc; they've won eight of their last ten games.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Wednesday, March 14

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68 things bettors should know about the field of 68
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Before you blindly pencil in Kentucky to win the national championship, remember these two things:

1. The Wildcats, the No. 1 overall seed and clear-cut favorite to win the NCAA tournament, have the worst record against the spread (12-20-1) of any team in the field of 68.

2. Since 1998, only two teams have won the national championship with a losing record against the spread: 2009 North Carolina (17-19 ATS) and 2004 UConn (16-18-1 ATS).

It’s easy to see why John Calipari’s young, but extremely talented bunch struggled to live up to the betting market’s expectations. The Wildcats were favored by a total of 532.5 points this year, an average of 16.3 points per game. No other team was favored by more than North Carolina’s 482 points. Kentucky was favored by 20 or more points nine times.

But the gap between the Wildcats and the rest of the field has narrowed, at least in oddsmakers’ eyes. The Las Vegas Hotel & Casino moved Kentucky from +180 (9/5) to +200 (2/1) after Big Blue slipped up against Vanderbilt in the SEC championship game. The Cats’ odds are even a little higher offshore.

Now, that we’ve scientifically proven without a doubt that Kentucky is not winning the national title, here’s everything else bettors should know to successfully handicap the madness.

Most NBA Talent

3. Kentucky: Anthony Davis (1) Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (2), Terrence Jones (11), Doron Lamb (35), Marcus Teague (38), Darius Miller (88).

4. North Carolina: Harrison Barnes (6), John Henson (9), Tyler Zeller (10), Kendall Marshall (19), James McAdoo (26), Reggie Bullock (65).

5. Kansas: Thomas Robinson (3), Tyshawn Taylor (31), Jeff Withey (94), Elijah Johnson (76)

6. Vanderbilt: Jeff Taylor (20), Festus Ezeli (34), John Jenkins (46)

7. UConn: Andre Drummond (4), Jeremy Lamb (12), Alex Oriakhi (91)

Best, Worst, Most & Least

8. Xavier has been the best bet in the NCAA tournament, going 10-3-1 ATS since 2005.

9. Gonzaga has been the worst best in the NCAA tournament, going 4-8 ATS since 2005.

10. New Mexico (22-8 ATS) has been the best bet in college basketball. No team has covered the spread in more than 24 games in a season since at least 1998.

11. Kentucky, as noted above, has the worst record against the spread of any team in the field. Duke, at 13-20 against the number, is next.

12. Lehigh is best free-throw shooting team at 77.6 percent.

13. Cincinnati is the worst free-throw shooting team at 64.1 percent.

14. North Carolina is by far the best rebounding team, dominating teams on the glass by average of 10.8 rebounds per game. No other team in the field has a rebounding margin more than 8.7 (New Mexico State).

15. Virginia Commonwealth is the worst rebounding team. The Rams were outrebounded by 1.5 per game.

16. Mississippi Valley State commits the most fouls per game at 20.5. Davidson is a close second, committing 20.3 fouls per game.

17. Notre Dame commits the fewest fouls per game at 13.8.

18. Florida makes the most 3-pointers per game (9.9)

19. Alabama makes the fewest 3-pointers per game (4.0).

20. Kentucky has the highest scoring margin, beating opponents by an average of 19.2 points. North Carolina (16.1), Ohio State (16.1), Wichita State (15.3) and Syracuse (14.7) are next.

21. Western Kentucky has the worst scoring margin (-2.9).

22. Western Kentucky received the least amount of respect from oddsmakers. The Hilltoppers were an underdog by a total of 135 points this season, the most of any team in the field.

23. Florida produced the highest percentage of overs. Eighteen of 28 games (64.28%) involving the Gators eclipsed the total. Duke was next at 20/12, over/under (62.5%).

24. Gonzaga produced the highest percentage of unders. Twenty-one of 29 games (72.4%) involving the Zags stayed under the total. Notre Dame was next at 9/18 over/under (66.6%).

25. Iona averages the most points 83.3.

26. South Florida scores the least at 59.2.

27. Wisconsin allows the fewest points (52.9)

28. Iona allows the most points (72.6).

29. Purdue turns the ball over the least (8.7).

30. Florida State turns the ball over the most (16.3).

31. Memphis and Xavier have each produced 10 overs in NCAA tournament play over the last six years, the most of any team in the field.

32. Duke has produced the most unders in NCAA tournament play over the last six years, the most of any team in the field.

6 Notable Strength-of-Schedule Mismatches

33. South Dakota State (218) vs. Baylor (16)

34. Cincinnati (63) vs. Texas (11)

35. Gonzaga (137) vs. West Virginia (25)

36. Davidson (210) vs. Louisville (18)

37. Murray State (249) vs. Colorado State (62)

38. Saint Mary’s (168) vs. Purdue (14)

5 teams not at full strength

39. Duke: The Blue Devils might be without starting forward and third-leading scorer Ryan Kelly (foot) for at least their opening game against Lehigh.

40. Long Beach State: The 49ers managed to win their conference tournament without second-leading scorer Larry Anderson (knee). Anderson is questionable to play Thursday against New Mexico.

41. North Carolina: The Tar Heels played without Jon Henson (wrist) for most of the ACC tournament. It seems likely that Roy Williams would rest his team’s leading rebounder and third-leading scorer for at least their opener against the Lamar-Vermont winner.

42. Indiana: The Hoosiers lost point guard Verdell Jones to an ACL injury in the Big Ten tournament.

43. Virginia: A rash of injuries has left the Cavs with just seven scholarship players. Starting shooting guard Joe Harris, one of the seven, has been battling a bad wrist for the latter half of the season.

Odds & Ends

44. Will a No. 1 seed win the NCAA tournament? Yes -123 / No +105 (PinnacleSports.com)

45. Instead of taking just Kentucky to win the tournament at 2/1, you might as well take the entire SEC at the same odds at Sportsbetting.ag.

46. Florida State is 33-19-1 ATS in March under coach Leonard Hamilton.

47. Underdogs went 1787-1733-73 ATS through the conference tournaments.

48. There were 1,769 overs and 1,788 unders through the conference tournaments.

49. Mississippi Valley State (2) and Long Beach State (3) had the toughest non-conference strength of schedules, according Kenpon.com.

50. Cincinnati had the easiest non-conference schedule (338).

51. Belmont and Montana enter the tournament on the longest winning streaks at 14.

52. No team is hotter than Memphis, though. The Tigers roared through the final stretch of their schedule, winning seven straight games by double figures.

53. The biggest snub of the NCAA tournament field – Play-by-play man Gus Johnson will not be calling any games this season. Johnson and CBS parted ways last year.

54. As of Tuesday, Baylor -7.5 (77%) was the top consensus pick among Covers users for second-round games.

best 2nd-round bets

55. Colorado St +4
56. New Mexico -4
57. Vanderbilt -6.5
58. Purdue -1
59. Missouri/Norfolk State Over 144.5
60. Michigan -6
61. UConn -1.5

Final Four

62. Vanderbilt
63. Michigan State
64. Kentucky
65. North Carolina

Final Two

66. Michigan State
67. North Carolina

National Champion

68. Michigan State

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, March 14

Hot Teams
-- 76ers won/covered last three games.
-- Toronto covered five of its last six road games.
-- Lakers won last three games, by 3-3-5 points.
-- Milwaukee won four of its last five games (5-0 vs spread). Cavaliers won/covered three of their last four games.
-- Bulls won ten of their last eleven games.
-- Orlando won five of last six games, covered last three.
-- Celtics won seven of last nine games, covered six of last seven. Golden State won three of its last four games.
-- Atlanta won five of last seven games, covered five of last six.
-- Phoenix won/covered seven of last nine home games.

Cold Teams
-- Pacers lost four of their last five games.
-- Nets are 1-7-1 vs spread in last nine home games.
-- New York lost its last six games (1-5 vs spread). Trailblazers covered once in last six road games.
-- New Orleans covered twice in its last eight home games.
-- Houston lost six of its last eight games. Bobcats covered once in their last six road games.
-- Miami lost its last three road games, by 1-10-6 points.
-- Spurs are 2-6 vs spread in game after their last eight wins.
-- Sacramento lost six of its last eight games. Pistons lost last four road games, failed to cover last three.
-- Clippers lost four of last five home games (0-5 vs spread).
-- Jazz lost eight of their last ten road games (0-3 vs spread/last three).

Wear-and-Tear
-- 76ers: Last two nites off. Pacers: 4th game/5 nites.
-- Raptors: 4th game/5 nites. Nets: 6th game/9 nites.
-- Blazers: 4th game/6 nites. Knicks: 3rd game/4 nites.
-- Lakers: 6th game/9 nites. Hornets: 4th game/6 nites.
-- Bobcats: 6th game/9 nites. Rockets: 4th game/5 nites.
-- Cavaliers: 3rd game/4 nites. Bucks: 3rd game/4 nites.
-- Heat: 2nd nite in row after two off. Bulls: 2nd game/5 nites.
-- Magic: 3rd game/4 nites. Spurs: 2nd game/5 nites.
-- Pistons: 4th game/6 nites. Kings: 3rd game/4 nites.
-- Celtics: 6th game/9 nites. Warriors: 4th game/5 nites.
-- Hawks: 6th game/9 nites. Clippers: 3rd game/4 nites.
-- Jazz: 4th game/6 nites. Suns: 3rd game/5 nites.

Totals
-- Four of last five Philly games went over the total.
-- Over is 8-4 in Toronto's last twelve games.
-- Five of last seven Portland games went over the total.
-- Last four Laker games went over the total.
-- Last seven Houston games went over the total.
-- Last ten Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Miami games stayed under the total. Six of last seven Chicago games went over.
-- Six of last eight Orlando games went over the total.
-- Eight of last nine Detroit road games went over.
-- Six of last eight Boston games went over the total.
-- Three of Clippers' last four home games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Phoenix games stayed under total.

Back-to-Back
-- Pacers are 5-8 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Toronto is 4-0 vs spread when playing second nite in row on road.
-- Portland is 4-2 vs spread when it lost the night before.
-- Lakers are 3-6 vs spread on road when they played night before.
-- Rockets are 7-0 vs spread at home if they played night before.
-- Cavs are 1-3 vs spread on road if they played at home night before.
-- Miami is 4-8 vs spread if it played the night before.
-- Orlando is 6-4-1 vs spread on road if it played night before.
-- Kings are 7-5 vs spread if they played night before, 2-0 at home.
-- Golden State is 7-2 vs spread if it played the night before.
-- Hawks are 4-1-1 vs spread on road if they played night before.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB Best Bets in BOLD:

NCAAB

Wednesday, March 14

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Vermont 0 1st 20:00 Vermont +3 500
Lamar 0 Over 128.5 500

Manhattan - 7:00 PM ET Albany +2 500
Albany - Over 144.5 500

Yale - 7:00 PM ET Fairfield -8.5 500
Fairfield - Over 124.5 500

Bowling Green - 7:00 PM ET Oakland -4 500
Oakland - Over 152.5 500

Minnesota - 7:00 PM ET Minnesota +3 500
La Salle - Over 137.5 500

Wofford - 7:00 PM ET Wofford +13 500
Pittsburgh - Over 129 500

Central Florida - 7:15 PM ET Drexel -7 500
Drexel - Over 123.5 500

Northern Iowa - 7:15 PM ET St. Joseph's -6.5 500
St. Joseph's - Under 131 500

Buffalo - 7:30 PM ET Buffalo -2.5 500
American U. - Under 134 500

Valparaiso - 7:30 PM ET Valparaiso +10.5 500
Miami - Florida - Under 135 500

Quinnipiac - 7:30 PM ET Quinnipiac +4 500
Pennsylvania - Over 131 500

North Dakota - 8:00 PM ET North Dakota +13 500
Drake - Over 133 500

Rice - 8:00 PM ET Louisiana-Lafayette +1 500
Louisiana-Lafayette - Over 140 500

Delaware - 8:00 PM ET Delaware +9 500
Butler - Over 132 500

South Florida - 9:00 PM ET South Florida +3 500
California - Under 115 500

Cal. State - Bakersfield - 9:00 PM ET Utah St. -10.5 500
Utah St. - Under 131 500

Bucknell - 9:00 PM ET Bucknell +8.5 500
Arizona - Over 132 500

North Dakota State - 9:00 PM ET North Dakota State +10 500
Wyoming - Over 123 500

Nevada - 9:15 PM ET Nevada +5.5 500
Oral Roberts - Over 137.5 500

Illinois St. - 9:30 PM ET Mississippi -6 500
Mississippi - Over 131.5 500

UC Santa Barbara - 10:00 PM ET Idaho +1 500
Idaho - Over 136 500

Cal St. Fullerton - 10:00 PM ET Cal St. Fullerton +7 500
Loyola Marymount - Over 147.5 500

Western Illinois - 10:00 PM ET Oregon St. -11.5 500
Oregon St. - Over 129.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Wednesday, March 14

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Philadelphia - 7:00 PM ET Indiana +1 500
Indiana - Under 185 500

Portland - 7:30 PM ET Portland +5 500
New York - Under 200.5 500

Cleveland - 8:00 PM ET Milwaukee -5.5 500
Milwaukee - Over 204 500

L.A. Lakers - 8:00 PM ET L.A. Lakers -4.5 500
New Orleans - Under 180 500

Miami - 9:30 PM ET Miami +3.5 500
Chicago - Under 191.5 500

Detroit - 10:00 PM ET Detroit +4.5 500
Sacramento - Over 198 500

Utah - 10:30 PM ET Utah +5 500
Phoenix - Over 197.5 500

Atlanta - 10:30 PM ET L.A. Clippers -6 500
L.A. Clippers - Over 185 500

Boston - 10:30 PM ET Golden State +1 500
Golden State - Under 189 500

[StarDust Bum]

NHL

Wednesday, March 14

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Colorado - 7:30 PM ET Buffalo -143 500
Buffalo - Under 5 500

Ottawa - 7:30 PM ET Montreal +112 500
Montreal - Over 5.5 500

Dallas - 8:30 PM ET Winnipeg -108 500
Winnipeg - Over 5.5 500

Columbus - 10:00 PM ET Edmonton -153 500
Edmonton - Over 5.5 500

Phoenix - 10:00 PM ET Phoenix +158 500
Vancouver - Over 5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Venue Breakdown

March 14, 2012

While most of the NCAA tournament games will generally be played in unfamiliar venues and spacious arenas with mixed fan bases, Ii is worth taking a look at the travel required for teams and fan bases. Here is a brief look at some of the advantages and disadvantages presented by the selection committee this season.

Louisville, Kentucky

The Wildcats play in their home state but their opponent is also a Bluegrass State foe as Western Kentucky won Tuesday’s opening game. The winner will enjoy a huge advantage in the next game as Iowa State and Connecticut are both far from home in this grouping. Ames may not look that far on a map but it is 600 miles away, though that is a closer than the roughly 900 miles Connecticut fans have to travel. While Kentucky was expected to get a big location advantage the team most benefiting from the Louisville draw is West 6 seed Murray State. Only the top four seed lines are supposed to get location consideration yet Murray State will not have to leave Kentucky for its first game with Colorado State or a potential ‘round of 32’ game with 3 seed Marquette. Louisville is still over 200 miles from Louisville but it is nearly twice as far from Milwaukee, although Marquette was placed in the closest possible location. The disadvantage for Marquette won’t be so much in the distance traveled but in that all the Kentucky fans will surely adopt Murray State as their rooting interest.

Portland, Oregon

With the Pac-12 being pretty terrible this season the West region had a lot of trouble filling in teams that made sense. Portland was then left without a team seeded higher than a 4 seed and very few western teams. This might be an easy ticket as every team involved is facing a long trip. 4 seeds Indiana and Louisville will be at location disadvantages should they win their first games but it won’t be significant and 5 seeds Wichita State and New Mexico are also facing very significant travel. New Mexico and New Mexico State at least have the benefit of being closer to the Pacific time zone as 12 seed Long Beach State is the only team in that zone in this grouping. New Mexico has emerged as a trendy sleeper to knock off Louisville in the potential 4/5 match-up but don’t cite location advantage as a reason as being 1,300 miles away isn’t much better than being 2,300 miles away.

Albuquerque, New Mexico

There simply aren’t many short trips out west so while UNLV and Colorado both seem to be paired in a favorable venue it is a significant journey for both teams at nearly 500 miles for the Buffaloes and nearly 600 miles for the Rebels. 3 seed Baylor is playing nearly 700 miles from Waco so there is not much of an advantage for any team in that South region pod. The rest of the Albuquerque group seems to be leftover teams that didn’t do enough to earn preferential treatment as Wisconsin and Montana meet in a 4/13 game and Vanderbilt and Harvard meet in a 5/12 game. Badger fans are known to travel well but there may not be much of a draw for those games.

Greensboro, North Carolina

As usual Duke and North Carolina have earned favorable spots in Greensboro and it will be tough to envision too much support for any of the other teams in these pods. Notre Dame and Xavier meet in what would have been a full arena in game that would have played great for fans if it was in say Louisville but instead the victor will face a big location disadvantage in the next round if the Blue Devils get by Lehigh. North Carolina will draw the winner of what should be a great game between Creighton and Alabama in an 8/9 match-up. Tuscaloosa is over 500 miles away for Crimson Tide fans which is quite a bit closer than the 1,300 mile drive that some Creighton fans will make. Duke and North Carolina have certainly earned it with their great traditions but it is a bit unfair that almost every year they get to play NCAA tournament games an hour away from home. Selling tickets is more important than competitive balance so don’t expect it to change.

Columbus, Ohio

Michigan State ventures into enemy territory for its opening tournament games and it is a very reasonable four hour drive south for Spartans fans. Potential second game foes St. Louis and Memphis are considerably further away from Columbus but it is a manageable trip for both of those teams and their fans. The other group in Columbus is a mismatch of teams as San Diego State and NC State both will be far from home in a 6/11 game. In the 3/14 match-up Nashville is a bit closer to Columbus for the underdog Belmont but Georgetown is a reasonable 400 mile drive away. It shouldn’t be enough to sway the game but it is a rare location advantage for a 14 seed. In a grouping that should be dominated by Michigan State fans some of the other underdogs might have a slight advantage as those waiting for Michigan State’s late game Friday will certainly be pulling for Belmont and an upset.

Omaha, Nebraska

While bitter rivals Missouri and Kansas may not meet on the court in the near future they can fight it out in the stands in Omaha as those will be the main drawing teams in this grouping. Columbia is just over 300 miles to Omaha for a nice edge for Missouri for any of the potential games they will face with Florida and Virginia meeting in the 7/10 game. Kansas enjoys one of the closest to home venues in the tournament playing just over 200 miles away and they will draw Detroit in the first game and the winner of the St. Mary’s/Purdue game so a significant advantage will be enjoyed in both games. While Missouri won the Big XII tournament Kansas was dealt a more favorable spot moving forward as the Sweet 16 in the Midwest is in St. Louis while Missouri will need to win in Phoenix if they hope to make the Final Four.

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

It is rare to see Pitt absent from the NCAA tournament but the city will be hosting opening games on Thursday and Saturday. 1 seed Syracuse draws a favorable pairing although it is still a hefty 360 mile trip. Kansas State and Southern Miss will certainly be making much further journeys in a compelling 8/9 game. Ohio State should be the dominant force in the crowd in Pittsburgh playing just 180 miles away from Columbus. The foes for the Buckeyes don’t have to travel too far however as Loyola-Maryland is less than 250 miles away in Baltimore and things could be interesting in the second game should the Buckeyes advance as 10 seed West Virginia has the most favorable venue in the tournament in terms of distance outside of Duke and North Carolina. Pittsburgh may be hostile territory for the Mountaineers but they are playing just over an hour’s drive away from Morgantown, a significant edge over Gonzaga in the first game and perhaps a boost that could give them a little better shot at an upset should they get a chance at the Buckeyes.

Nashville, Tennessee

Cincinnati made a great run to the Big East final and they were rewarded with very favorable seeding in the Big Dance. The Bearcats not only got a 6 seed despite most projections for a worse placing, they also are in a very favorable venue in Nashville, just 270 miles away. Texas faces very long travel as does Florida State and St. Bonaventure so this may be an opportunity for Cincinnati to have success. In the other pod Michigan and Temple have long trips of similar distance for the potential 4/5 game. Temple will have a big location edge against its potential opponent but that could be softened a bit with California in South Florida playing Wednesday night in Dayton to cut the trip down. Athens is still a good 400 miles from Nashville but Ohio is technically facing a shorter trip to Nashville than favored Michigan, a game many have keyed in on as a possible upset.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday Afternoon Games

March 14, 2012


The second round of the NCAA Tournament begins on Thursday with a full card of 16 games to wager on. We'll take a look here at the eight day contests, including three Big East teams taking the court (Syracuse, Marquette, and Louisville). The day begins in Louisville with one of the nation's biggest surprises looking to keep up their magical season.

[11] Colorado State vs. [6] Murray State (-4, 135 ½) - 12:15 PM EST

The Racers enter the tournament with a resounding 30-1 record, while claiming both the Ohio Valley regular season and conference tournament titles. Murray State is roughly a four-hour drive from KFC Yum Center in Louisville, where the Racers' second round game takes place against Colorado State. The Rams claimed an at-large berth out of the Mountain West at 20-11, as CSU cashed in seven of its final eight games of the season. Colorado State won only two of its nine games away from Ft. Collins in MWC play, including losses at Boise State and TCU. Murray State's lone loss came to Tennessee State in early February, as the Racers compiled a 9-3 ATS record as a single-digit favorite this season.

[9] Southern Miss vs. [8] Kansas State (-5, 133 ½) - 12:40 PM EST

In one of the more intriguing matchups on Thursday, the Wildcats and Golden Eagles will play for the right to likely take on top-seeded Syracuse in the third round. K-State handled Missouri twice, while also knocking off Baylor in Waco as 7 ½-point underdogs. Frank Martin's club put together a 7-9 ATS ledger in the favorite role, while failing to cover in the 3-5 pointspread range against West Virginia, Texas, and Oklahoma. Southern Miss didn't cash tickets in its final seven games of the season, even though six of those contests came in the 'chalk' role. The Golden Eagles did push the pace with a 10-2 'over' run the final 12 games, while scoring at least 75 points six times.

[13] Davidson vs. [4] Louisville (-7 ½, 138 ½) - 1:40 PM EST

This will be a rough wake-up call for the Wildcats and Cardinals, who tip things off at 10:40 AM local time at the Rose Garden in Portland. Louisville grabbed the Big East tournament crown with an ugly victory over Cincinnati, capping off a run of four wins in four days. The Cardinals are in the Big Dance for the sixth straight season, while trying to win their opening game after losing the last two against Cal (2010) and Murray State (2011). Davidson captured the automatic berth after winning the Southern Conference title, as the Wildcats finished 19-2 in conference play. Four seasons after making a run to the Elite Eight, Davidson's signature victory this season came at Kansas as 13-point 'dogs, avenging the loss to the Jayhawks that preventing the Wildcats from going to the Final Four in 2008. The Wildcats fell to Wichita State, Vanderbilt, and Duke in non-conference play, but all three games finished 'over' the total.

[13] Montana vs. [4] Wisconsin (-9, 118 ½) - 2:10 PM EST

The first game in Albuquerque isn't a sexy one by any stretch, as the grind-it-out Badgers battle Montana. Wisconsin fell to eventual Big 10 champ Michigan State in the semifinals of the conference tournament, but Bo Ryan's team has won 12 of their past 16 games. However, the Badgers aren't profiting over the last 20 contests by posting a 7-13 ATS mark, while going 2-5 ATS the last seven games as a favorite. Montana is back in the tournament for the first time since 2010 as the Grizzlies claimed the Big Sky title, while winning each of its final 14 games. The signature non-conference victory for Montana came against Long Beach State, who is a 12-seed in the West Regional. The Grizzlies own a 15-5 ATS record in their previous 20 lined games, while three of the non-covers came as double-digit favorites.

[14] BYU vs. [3] Marquette (-6) - 2:40 PM EST

The Cougars pulled off a historic tournament triumph by overcoming a 25-point deficit in Tuesday's 78-72 rally over Iona as two-point favorites. BYU makes the short trip from Dayton to Louisville as the Cougars take on a Marquette squad that finished the season at 25-7. The Golden Eagles were a profiting machine early January by posting a 12-5 ATS mark, while going 6-2 ATS in this stretch as a single-digit favorite. BYU took advantage in its first season as a member of the West Coast Conference by compiling a 26-8 record, including a 13-5 conference ledger. The Cougars are in the midst of a 2-5 ATS run, which includes the comeback victory against Iona, while going 1-5 ATS as an underdog this season.

[16] UNC-Asheville vs. [1] Syracuse (-15, 147) - 3:10 PM EST

The Orange is the top seed in the East Regional, but Jim Boeheim's team will be without its center Fab Melo for the entire tournament due to eligibility issues. Syracuse should take care of business against a UNC-Asheville club that claimed the Big South title with a victory over VMI in the conference championship game. The Bulldogs average 81 points per game, while busting the 80-point mark eighteen times this season (including a six-game stretch during conference play). Syracuse lost only two games all season against Notre Dame and Cincinnati, as the Orange struggled down the stretch covering numbers by putting together a 2-7 ATS record the last nine games.

[12] Long Beach State vs. [5] New Mexico (-4, 137) - 4:10 PM EST

The Lobos are one of the hottest ATS teams as of late by covering 12 of their last 14 games, while taking home the title of the Mountain West tournament. New Mexico will have its hands full against Long Beach State, who won both the Big West regular season title and tournament championship at 25-8. The 49ers picked up 18 victories in 19 tries against conference foes, including a 7-2 ATS run down the stretch. New Mexico finished a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS as a favorite of five points or less this season, including wins over tournament teams UNLV, San Diego State, and New Mexico State.

[12] Harvard vs. [5] Vanderbilt (-5 ½, 122 ½) - 4:40 PM EST

Two of the brainier schools in the tournament meet up at the Pit in New Mexico for an intriguing matchup between the SEC and the Ivy League. The Commodores upset top-ranked Kentucky to claim the SEC tournament crown as 7 ½-point underdogs, 71-64. Vandy has dropped its opening game in the NCAA tournament in the last three tries, including a three-point loss to Richmond last March. The Crimson finished off a spectacular season with a 26-4 mark and their first appearance in the Big Dance since 1946, when the field was composed of only eight teams. Harvard stumbled to a 3-8 ATS finish, but all 11 of those games came in the 'chalk' role. The Commodores closed the season at 8-3 ATS, including covers against Kentucky and Florida.