The Bum's NFL Week # 10 Best Bets 11/10-11/14 !

[StarDust Bum]

NFL | PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI
Play Over - Any team against the total after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a winning record playing another winning team in the second half of the season
89-45 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.4% | 39.5 units )
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NFL | JACKSONVILLE at INDIANAPOLIS
Play On - Road teams with a money line of +130 to -150 (JACKSONVILLE) off a road loss, in November games
46-23 since 1997. ( 66.7% | 0.0 units )
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NFL | OAKLAND at SAN DIEGO
Play Over - Any team vs the the 1rst half total good passing team (6.7-7.3 PY/Att.) against a poor passing defense (6.7-7.3 PY/Att.), after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game
46-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

[StarDust Bum]

Week 10 Preview: Lions at Bears

DETROIT LIONS (6-2)

at CHICAGO BEARS (5-3)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -3, Total: 46.5

Detroit is feeling confident with six wins in its first eight games, but Sunday will be no picnic traveling to Soldier Field to face the red-hot Bears, winners of three straight.

The Lions manhandled the Bears in Detroit last month, overwhelming Chicago’s offensive line and scoring two 70-plus yard touchdowns in a 24-13 win. The Chicago secondary has struggled this season, but the Bears are tough to burn on the slow Soldier Field track. However, Detroit has been burning most opponents on their home field, going 4-0 SU with 33.0 PPG away from home this year, and posting an 8-2-2 ATS mark on the road since the start of last year. Another possible edge for the Lions: Detroit is coming off a bye, while the Bears have a short week to prepare after playing Monday night. Expect the Lions to take advantage of the weary Bears and for DETROIT to win again on the road.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also supports the Lions:

Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHICAGO) - terrible defensive team (>=370 YPG) against an average defensive team (295 to 335 YPG). (50-20 since 1983.) (71.4%, +28 units. Rating = 3*).

In the Oct. 10 meeting, Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson connected on a 73-yard touchdown, while RB Jahvid Best bolted for an 88-yard TD run. Stafford (19 TD, 4 INT) and Johnson (NFL-best 11 receiving TD) will continue to make plays, but Best probably will not be in uniform as he continues to recover from concussion symptoms. Johnson has 100.5 receiving yards per game this year, good for third in the league and is currently riding a four-game streak of triple-digit yardage. Stafford is fourth in the NFL in QB rating (99.1) and was 19-of-26 for 219 yards and 2 TD in the October meeting with Chicago. With Best out, the Lions will look to Maurice Morris to handle most of the rushing workload. In the past two weeks, Morris has a solid 108 yards on 22 carries (4.9 YPC).

Detroit has done a fine job with its pass defense (194 YPG, sixth in NFL), and has tallied 18 takeaways this season. But the team has surrendered 138 rushing YPG (fifth-worst in league). Middle-of-the-field-clogging DT Nick Fairley (foot) is questionable for Sunday’s game, and this doesn’t bode well going up against the Bears dynamic rusher, Matt Forte.

Forte has been a nightmare for the Lions over the years. In seven career meetings with Detroit, he has 908 total yards and six touchdowns. This season, Forte leads Chicago in both rushing (805 yards) and receiving (436 yards), averaging 5.4 yards per carry and 10.6 yards per catch. QB Jay Cutler has also dominated Detroit in his career. In six lifetime meetings, Cutler has a 109.2 QB rating (10 TD, 1 INT), and he threw for 249 yards and a score when they played in October. WR Earl Bennett is emerging as Cutler’s favorite target, coming off a huge Monday night performance with five catches for 95 yards and a touchdown. Chicago has a couple of injuries that could limit the offense. Star kick returner Devin Hester is questionable with an ankle injury and TE Kellen Davis might miss this game with an elbow injury.

The Bears have really emphasized stuffing the rush since allowing Detroit to run for 181 yards four games ago. In three games since, Chicago has allowed just 202 rushing yards, including 119 to Philly’s top-ranked rushing offense. However, the Bears are still struggling with their pass defense (264 YPG, 26th in NFL). Chicago has forced six turnovers in the past two games, but Detroit’s offense has turned the ball over only five times all season.

[Kaptain]

get them Chargers and OVER in for us SD Bum.....thanks

[StarDust Bum]

Top 5 NFL Trends

PIT
CIN CIN are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC.

NYG
SF SF are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.

NYG
SF SF are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

DEN
KC Under is 7-0 in KC last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

STL
CLE Under is 6-0-1 in STL last 7 road games.

[StarDust Bum]

Tight Lines Abound

November 10, 2011

With half of the pro football season in the books, it’s safe to say that we’re starting to separate the contenders from pretenders.
Or are we?

Looking at the Week 10 betting board, you would be led to believe that the league is competitive, especially for our purposes. Eight of the 16 games on tap this week have lines that are listed between 2 ½ points and 3 ½ points.

Is it just a coincidence? Instead of debating parity in the NFL, we looked at the most common number in Week 10.

Through nine weeks of the season, there have been 35 games that have seen a closing number between 2 ½ and 3 ½ points.

Favorites in this position have gone 20-15 straight up (57%), which isn’t stellar but it isn’t horrible either. Against the spread is a different story, with that mark standing at 13-19-3 (40%).

Delving into the numbers a little closer, gamblers have watched home favorites between 2 ½ and 3 ½-points have gone 11-6 SU and 6-10-1 ATS. Road favorites between 2 ½ and 3 ½ points have gone 9-9 SU and 7-9-2 ATS.

The games that ended in pushes this season are below:

Dallas (-3) 27 at San Francisco 24
Detroit (-3) 26 at Minnesota 23
Cleveland (-3) 6 vs. Seattle 3

Below are this week’s games fitting the above scenario and some quick hitters on each contest:

Week 10 Road Favorites between 2 ½ and 3 ½ points

Pittsburgh (-3) at Cincinnati: The Steelers are 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS as road favorites this season. Cincinnati has covered five straight and seven of eight this season. The Bengals have been a home ‘dog (+3) once this season, winning outright against Buffalo (23-20). Pitt has been a road favorite in its last four trips to Cincy, posting a 3-1 record both SU and ATS.

Jacksonville (-3) at Indianapolis: The Jaguars are 0-4 SU and 1-2-1 ATS on the road, and they’ve never been a favorite. Outside of last week’s blowout loss (7-31) to Atlanta at home, the Colts have dropped their other three games from Lucas Oil Stadium by a combined 15 points.

Houston (-3) at Tampa Bay: The Texans have gone 2-2 both SU and ATS on the road, winning and covering in their only opportunity as a favorite in Week 2 at Miami (23-13). The Buccaneers stopped the Saints 26-20 on Oct. 16 in their only game as home underdogs this season.

Week 10 Home Favorites between 2 ½ and 3 ½ points

Kansas City vs. Denver: Hard to lay points with the Chiefs in the spot, considering their play as home favorites this season. KC has gone 0-2 both SU and ATS, with the losses by a combined score of 72-10 (Buffalo, Miami). Outside of the beating at Lambeau from the Packers (23-49), Denver has gone 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in its three other road tilts. Three of the last four in this series has been decided by 20-plus points or more.

Carolina vs. Tennessee: The Panthers are 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS at home. Carolina has been made a home favorite three times (2-1) this season, posting wins over the Jaguars and Redskins but losing outright to the Vikings. The Titans have only played three road games (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS), the lone win against Cleveland.

Chicago vs. Detroit: The Bears have ripped off three straight wins and covers, plus they’ve been tough at Soldier Field (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) this season. The lone loss came to Green Bay (17-27), which isn’t shocking. The Lions are off the bye and can lay claim as one of three teams to be perfect on the road (4-0 SU, 3-0-1 ATS). Detroit defeated Chicago 24-13 in their Week 5 showdown on MNF.

Cleveland vs. St. Louis: The Browns are 2-1 SU and 1-1-1 ATS as home favorites this season. The Rams haven’t won on the road (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS), losing all by six points or more.

San Francisco vs. N.Y. Giants: The 49ers have been a beast this season, going 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS. The club is 3-1 both SU and ATS at home, covering all three spots as favorites. After losing at the Redskins in Week 1, the Giants have won three straight on the road, twice outright as healthy ‘dogs against the Eagles and Patriots. The lone loss for SF did come at home to another NFC East foe, Dallas (24-27) albeit in overtime.

[StarDust Bum]

Bettors continue to fade Colts

November 11, 2011

Heading into Week 10 of the NFL season there's one thing that's become abundantly clear: Peyton Manning is an important member of the Indianapolis Colts.

Like, really important.

OK, so everyone already knew that, but even the biggest Manning fan might not have predicted how far the Colts would fall without their star quarterback. Indianapolis is 0-9 and has been outscored 283-128 in those nine losses. The team's minus-155 point differential is the worst in the NFL by a wide margin.

Sunday the Colts host Jacksonville (2-6) in what might be their best chance for a win this season. We've got the Jaguars by a field goal, and so far we've booked most of the action on the road team. In fact, we've had to aggressively manage our moneyline to attract Indy money. If you like the Colts +3, you can bet $100 to win $105.

Get all your NFL betting lines at Bodog's online sportsbook.

I've already written a few times this year about the Green Bay Packers and how we can't seem to give their opponents enough points to convince bettors to go against the defending champs. We've got the Pack by 14 for Monday's game versus the Vikings at Lambeau, and I don't expect we'll be wanting for action on the home team. Not after Green Bay covered yet another spread Sunday in San Diego.

The issue we have with the Packers is the same issue we have with the Colts, only the exact opposite. Indy's failed to cover its last five spreads and bettors have cleaned up in the process. We can't seem to give the Colts enough points to convince bettors they can beat the spread. I mean, take this week. We're talking about a 6-2 Jaguars team that hasn't won on the road this season, and they're still favored by a field goal.

Indy's effort last week versus the Falcons didn't help matters any. Atlanta smoked the Colts, 31-7, while the crowd at Lucas Oil Stadium serenaded the beleaguered home team with boos.

"I haven't had nightmares like that in a long time," Colts coach Jim Caldwell said after the game. "It's not something that you anticipate is going to happen. We just aren't performing well right now."

Of course, there's another theory floating around that might explain the team's dreadful season. Are the Colts intentionally tanking so they can draft Andrew Luck?

For what it's worth, I'd never expect the players to intentionally lose games. Not only does it go against their competitive instincts, many of them are playing for contracts, and not necessarily with their current team.

The coaches and management, however, are a different story. Clearly the Colts have nothing left to play for. This is a lost season. Hey, you know what other season was a lost one in Indianapolis? When the Colts went 3-13 in 1997. Their reward? Peyton Manning. You do the math.

[StarDust Bum]

Hilton Week 10

4 of top five have the JETS ......fyi


Supercontest Week 10

Selections Recap


SD -7, 48
OAK +7, 15

PIT -3, 202
CIN +3, 58

KC -3, 111
DEN +3, 31

JAX -3, 82
IND +3, 37

DAL -5, 70
BUF +5, 160

HOU -3, 179
TB +3, 66

CAR -3, 123
TEN +3, 31

MIA -3.5, 70
WAS +3.5, 54

ATL PK, 134
NO PK, 55

CHI -2.5, 108
DET +2.5, 82

CLE -2.5, 35
STL +2.5, 67

PHI -13.5, 49
ARI +13.5, 19

BAL -6.5, 78
SEA +6.5, 68

SF -3.5, 84
NYG +3.5, 141

NYJ -1.5, 118
NE +1.5, 86

GB -13, 30
MIN +13, 69

Contest Selections

ICED TEA ., 32, 13, 0, SD, PIT, ATL, CHI, NYJ

FERAL CHILD ., 31, 12, 2, DEN, NO, NYG, NYJ, MIN

BURL IVES ., 31, 14, 0, CIN, DAL, CAR, WAS, NYJ

TEXASEX91 ., 30, 14, 1, KC, JAX, HOU, CHI, STL

R2K2 ., 30, 12, 3, OAK, CIN, BUF, ARI, NYJ

GO BIG RED ., 29, 15, 1, PIT, DAL, MIA, PHI, NYG

SANS SOUCI ., 29, 14, 2, PIT, HOU, ATL, CHI, BAL

SAMSWINS.COM2 ., 29, 14, 2, BUF, NO, CHI, SF, NYJ

PAGERMAGER ., 29, 13, 3, NO, STL, ARI, SEA, NE

PURPLE SAGE ., 28, 17, 0, JAX, BUF, HOU, MIA, SF

KOKOMO ., 28, 16, 1, PIT, TB, ATL, CHI, NE

JOHNNYBO.COM ., 28, 16, 1, CIN, HOU, DET, BAL, SF

AK47 ., 28, 15, 2, PIT, HOU, NO, BAL, NYG

SHAWNERS ., 28, 14, 3, BUF, HOU, BAL, NYJ, MIN

ROBERT C BEST ., 28, 14, 3, JAX, DAL, HOU, BAL, NYG

SLICK 50 ., 28, 16, 1, BUF, HOU, NO, DET, SEA

TYKONDEE ., 28, 17, 0, BUF, ATL, PHI, SEA, NYG

GA DROPOUT ., 28, 17, 0, PIT, HOU, NO, DET, SF

GAMEANALYSTS. COM, 28, 15, 2, PIT, HOU, CAR, CHI, MIN

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks and six least popular picks in Hilton handicapping contest, which has 517 contestants, all of whom who pick five NFL games a week against the spread. They put up $1,500 each, so these are serious handicappers........

6) Carolina Panthers 123
5) Atlanta Falcons 134
4) New York Giants 141
3) Buffalo Bills 160
2) Houston Texans 179
1) Pittsburgh Steelers 202

27) Cleveland Browns 35
T28) Denver Broncos 31
T28) Tennessee Titans 31
30) Green Bay Packers 30
31) Arizona Cardinals 19
32) Oakland Raiders 15

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 10

November 12, 2011

Week 9 Recap

The low-scoring run continued last week with 67% (8-4-1) of the games going ‘under’ the number. Outside of a few West Coast shootouts in the late afternoon, most of Sunday’s action was rather calm. Unfortunately for the sportsbooks, the ‘over’ cashed for the betting public in the two primetime games (see below). It took 10 weeks, but the ‘over’ reign is done. On the season, the ‘under’ stands at 64-61-4 (51%).

Divisional Trends

Week 10 has seven divisional battles on tap this week, including three matchups that will feature teams meeting for the second time this season.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: The Steelers (5-4) and Bengals (5-3) have both shaded to the ‘over’ this season. After some early season struggles, Pitt’s offense has put up 32, 25 and 20 points the last three weeks. Cincinnati’s defense (17.6 PPG) has been solid, but it’s safe to say that Big Ben will be the first legitimate quarterback the team will face. The ‘over’ is 3-0 in the last three encounters in Cincinnati between this pair.

Denver at Kansas City: The Broncos and Chiefs have both inconsistent on offense this season, which makes this total even tougher to ‘cap. You don’t know which attack will show up, which would make most lean more toward the ‘under.’ However, the ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in the last eight meetings between Denver and Kansas City. The total opened at 42 ½ and has been pushed down to 41 at most books. Do yourself a favor and check the wind on this contest come Sunday.

New Orleans at Atlanta: This contest has seen the total drop too, down two points to 49 ½ at most shops. Games played indoors usually have fireworks but Atlanta has proven to be a decent defensive club lately. The team has given up an average of 16.3 PPG in their last four, and that includes only 25 points to Green Bay, which is considered a very good job these days. New Orleans has the weapons to score but its attack has only put up 20 and 21 its last two on the road. The ‘over/under’ has gone 2-2 over the past two regular seasons.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis: (See Rust Affect)

Detroit at Chicago: (See Rust Affect)

New England at N.Y. Jets: (See Under the Lights)

Minnesota at Green Bay: (See Under the Lights)

Rust Affect

Even though the numbers weren’t eye-opening, the ‘under’ still posted a 4-3 record in the seven games with teams coming off the BYE. On the season, the number stands at 18-7 (72%) to the ‘under.’ We have four more teams playing with rest again this week.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis: The total on this game is hovering between 37 and 38 points and when you look at the attacks, it should be lower. The Jaguars (12.3 PPG) and Colts (14.2 PPG) have both been inconsistent on offense this season. However, Jacksonville could see a surge this weekend against Indy’s defense (31.4 PPG), which is ranked dead last in the league. The ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in the last eight in this series, but the past history must be tossed out here without Peyton Manning playing for the Colts.

Carolina vs. Tennessee: Carolina’s offense (23.4 PPG) has been a surprise behind rookie QB Cam Newton, plus the defense (25.9 PPG) hasn’t been good due to key injuries. When you have that combination, you usually see high-scoring affairs and ‘over’ tickets. Despite some inflated numbers, Carolina has watched the ‘over’ go 5-3. This week’s number (46) could be a little too high against Tennessee, who is only playing its fourth road game of the season. The Titans have seen the ‘over’ go 2-1 in the first three games outside of Nashville.

Detroit at Chicago: The Lions beat the Bears 24-13 in a MNF battle on Oct. 10. The total (47) was never threatened and the score should’ve been lower if it wasn’t for two big-play touchdowns from Detroit. This week, the number is down to 44 ½ points and it could get lower due to some poor weather conditions. The ‘over’ has cashed in four of the last six meetings here.

Minnesota at Green Bay: (See Under the Lights)

Under the Lights

Even when you know, you just don’t know! That’s how some bettors probably felt after watching both the SNF and MNF affairs last week. The ‘under’ in the Steelers-Ravens game had a great pace (9-6) at the half and even heading into the fourth quarter (16-6) too. Sure enough, 21 points in the final 15 minutes, seven coming at the end as Baltimore notched a 23-20 win and the game jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 42. Fast forward to MNF and it looked liked the Bears would be leading the Eagles 10-3 but two big turnovers turned into 14 points and Chicago led 17-10 at the break. Philadelphia posted 14 points in the second half but still came up short (30-24) to the Bears, but the ‘over’ cashed. Through nine weeks, the ‘over’ is 12-7-1 in primetime battles.

New England at New York: The last four in this series has gone ‘over’ the number, including the first meeting this season on Oct. 9, but it was very fortunate. The game closed at 50 ½ and the Patriots won 30-21, but the score was 10-7 at halftime. Prior to holding Buffalo to 11 points on the road last week, the Jets were giving up

Minnesota at Green Bay: The Vikings and Packers have watched the ‘over’ cash in seven of the last nine meetings, and that includes the shootout between the pair on Oct. 23. Green Bay captured a 33-27 road victory and the combined 60 points easily jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 46 ½. The Packers’ lowest output on offense this season has been 24 points. And most would expect them to get above that number again, since Minnesota hasn’t allowed less than 22 points in any of its four road games. This week’s number is hovering close to 51, which is inflated, but certainly doable.

Fearless Predictions

The Best Bet ‘over’ prediction between Atlanta and Indianapolis had a nice pace (21-7) at the half but only 10 points were scored in the final 30 minutes. The Falcons did their job (31) but the Colts (7) got no points from their offense. While that was tough to stomach, the Bengals-Titans barely slid ‘under’ the closing number. The team total (Denver 17.5) also looked good at half with the Broncos putting up seven points, but not before they posted 31 points in the second-half. The teaser hit again, but the deficit was still $20. On the season, we’re up 90 cents ($90). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Houston-Tampa Bay 46.5

Best Under: Denver-Kansas City 41.5

Best Team Total: Under Carolina 24.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over Houston-Tampa Bay 37.5
Over New Orleans-Atlanta 40.5
Over Buffalo-Dallas 39

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Trends - Week 10

November 12, 2011

NFL ATS PLAY ON TREND:

The Bengals are 10-0 ATS (6.8 ppg) since December 14, 2008 as a dog after a game as a dog where they did not fail to score TDs on at least three trips to the red zone.


NFL ATS PLAY AGAINST TREND:


The Browns are 0-10 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since November 6, 2008 after a game where they allowed more points than expected and held the ball for less than 28 minutes.


NFL OU TREND OF THE WEEK:


The Saints are 12-0 OU (14.9 ppg) since November 4, 2007 after game where they led by at least 14 points at the half and covered.


NCAA ATS PLAY ON TREND:


Wyoming is 10-0 ATS (8.2 ppg) since 2002 when they covered by between 6 and 12.5 points last week, and aren’t a 23+ point dog.


NCAA ATS PLAY AGAINST TREND:


Florida is 0-10 ATS (-10.1 ppg) since 2003 when they won by single digits last game as a favorite and aren’t playing at a neutral site.


NFL BIBLE TREND OF THE WEEK:


The Ravens are 11-0 ATS (+17.3 ppg) since December 30th 2007 when they are off a game in which they allowed more than 17 points and had three or fewer sacks.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, November 13

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Jacksonville - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville -3 500
Indianapolis - Over 37.5 500

Denver - 1:00 PM ET Denver +3 500
Kansas City - Over 42.5 500

Pittsburgh - 1:00 PM ET ( Cincinnati +4 500 BENGALS ARE REAL STEELERS GETTING OLD )
Cincinnati - Under 40.5 500

Buffalo - 1:00 PM ET Dallas -5.5 500
Dallas - Under 48 500

New Orleans - 1:00 PM ET New Orleans +1 500
Atlanta - Under 49.5 500

St. Louis - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland -2.5 500
Cleveland - Under 36.5 500

Washington - 1:00 PM ET Washington +4 500
Miami - ( Under 37.5 500 TOTAL OF THE DAY )

Houston - 1:00 PM ET Tampa Bay +3.5 500
Tampa Bay - Under 45.5 500

Tennessee - 1:00 PM ET Tennessee +3.5 500
Carolina - Under 46.5 500

Arizona - 1:00 PM ET Philadelphia -13.5 500
Philadelphia - Over 46.5 500

Baltimore - 4:05 PM ET ( Seattle +6.5 500 DOG OF THE DAY )
Seattle - Under 41 500

Detroit - 4:15 PM ET Detroit +2.5 500
Chicago - Over 43 500

N.Y. Giants - 4:15 PM ET ( San Francisco -3.5 500 NFL GOW )
San Francisco - Under 42.5 500

New England - 8:20 PM ET N.Y. Jets -1 500
N.Y. Jets - Under 47.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

SNF - Patriots at Jets

November 13, 2011

Two old rivals renew acquaintances on Sunday night as the Patriots battle the Jets in a key AFC East showdown. New England (5-3) has lost consecutive games for only the fourth time since 2002, as the Patriots are coming off back-to-back defeats to the Steelers and Giants. The Jets (5-3), meanwhile, are riding a three-game winning streak after losing at Gillette Stadium in Week 5.

The Patriots went through a taste of déjà-vu against the Giants last Sunday by allowing a late Eli Manning touchdown in the final minute. Manning's fade-pattern pass to Plaxico Burress ended New England's run at a 19-0 season in Super Bowl XLII, while the former Ole Miss star's touchdown toss to Jake Ballard with 15 seconds left gave the Pats their first home defeat of the season. The Patriots have failed to cover three consecutive games for the first time since 2009, as Bill Belichick's club has scored 20 points or less in each of the previous three contests.

The Jets were rolling out of the gate after beating the Cowboys and Jaguars at home, but three consecutive road setbacks slowed down the momentum of Gang Green. Rex Ryan's crew has responded with home victories over the Dolphins and Chargers, while dominating the Bills in a sound 27-11 thumping in Orchard Park last Sunday. The Jets held the ball for nearly 38 minutes as Mark Sanchez threw for 230 yards and a touchdown, helping New York cash as a 2 ½-point underdog.

In the last meeting between these divisional rivals, the Patriots knocked off the Jets, 30-21 as 7 ½-point favorites on October 10. New England exacted a modicum of revenge from last season's divisional playoff loss to New York by receiving a pair of touchdown runs from BenJarvus Green-Ellis and a 321-yard passing effort from Tom Brady. The game sailed 'over' the total of 50 ½ thanks to a late Stephen Gostkowski field goal in the final minute, the fourth straight 'over' in the series.

These clubs have split six meetings since Ryan arrived on the Jets' sidelines in 2009, but New York is 2-0 SU/ATS in the two games in East Rutherford. The Jets won both times as a three-point home underdog, including a 28-14 triumph in Week 2 of last season. New York has responded well off a divisional game the last 11 instances by putting together a 9-2 ATS mark, coming off the Bills' victory. Ryan gets his players up for AFC East battles with an 8-3 ATS record within the division since November 2009.

Despite not being able to follow up the loss at Pittsburgh with another defeat to the Giants, New England owns a solid 21-8 ATS record since 2003 off a straight-up loss. This system is even tighter when the Pats play on the road off a defeat, going 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS in this span, with the lone loss coming at Miami in 2009.

From the totals standpoint, the Patriots have cashed the 'under' in four of the last five games, while the total has closed at 50 or above in each of the previous seven contests. The Jets are 5-3 to the 'over,' as New York has eclipsed the 24-point mark in all four home contests.

New York is listed as a favorite over New England for the first since 2002, as the Jets are laying 1 ½ points. The total is set at 47 ½ as the game will be televised nationally on NBC for an 8:30 PM EST kickoff.

[StarDust Bum]

Little Line Movement For Monday Night Football

The Green Bay Packers will be double-digit favorites for the third time in four games when they host the Minnesota Vikings in an NFC North divisional matchup on Monday Night Football. The unbeaten Packers (8-0) are 13-point favorites against Minnesota (2-6) according to the Don Best odds screen and have gone 5-1 against the spread in their last six. Game time is scheduled for 8:35 p.m. (ET).

The only real concern for the defending Super Bowl champions this season has been on the defensive side of the ball, where they have slipped to 30th in the NFL in yards allowed, giving up nearly 400 yards per game. Last year, Green Bay ranked fifth in the league, allowing just 309.1 yards per game. The biggest difference has been through the air, as the team is surrendering almost 300 passing yards per game compared to 194.2 in 2010.

The Packers ranked second in the NFL last year with 24 picks and already have a league-high 16 this season. Their ability to generate turnovers has allowed them to play a bend, not break style of defense where they allow opponents to move down the field and rack up yards but ultimately keep stay out of the end zone for the most part.

The Vikings figure to test them again after nearly pulling off a major upset in Week 7. Rookie quarterback Christian Ponder helped them cover the spread as 10-point home underdogs in a 33-27 loss, throwing for 219 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions while running back Adrian Peterson also ran for 175 yards on 24 carries and scored once. Ponder made his first career start against Green Bay, and the two picks were the only real mistakes he made.

Minnesota is coming off a bye week after winning on the road against the Carolina Panthers in Week 8 as 3-point dogs, 24-21. Ponder threw for 236 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions to outduel fellow rookie Cam Newton. The team spent the bye getting healthier, as cornerback Antoine Winfield should be back on the field for the first time since Week 4 after recovering from a neck injury. Winfield is listed as probable on the injury report.

Green Bay’s inefficiencies on defense have not been noticeable in the standings thanks to QB Aaron Rodgers and the team’s offense. Rodgers has completed nearly 73 percent of his passes for 2,619 yards with 24 touchdowns and just three interceptions. In the first meeting with the Vikings, he calmly led the Pack on two touchdown drives within the first five minutes of the third quarter en route to a 20-0 run after they trailed 17-13 at halftime.

The NFL’s highest-scoring offense that has averaged 34.4 points per game has led to five of eight games going ‘over’ the total, including each of the past two. Last week, Green Bay held off a late rally by the San Diego Chargers in a 45-38 road victory, building a 21-7 lead at the end of the first quarter thanks to two interception returns for touchdowns.

The Packers remain No. 1 in the Don Best Linemakers Poll and may be focused on proving they can still play great defense on a national stage and in front of their home fans. Early betting has seen the opening total of 51 ½ go down to 50 ½ at some sportsbooks. The ‘over’ is 6-1 in their last seven meetings with No. 24 Minnesota, although none of the totals in those games closed higher than 47.

The weather should not be a factor in Green Bay, as the high temperature is expected to reach 51, cooling down to 35 at night under partly cloudy skies.

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Week 10 Preview: Vikings at Packers

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (2-6)

at GREEN BAY PACKERS (8-0)


Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Green Bay -13, Total: 50

The Packers look to add on to their 14-game win streak when they host 2-6 Minnesota on Monday night.

When the teams met in Minnesota in Week 7, the aggressiveness of Green Bay’s secondary actually worked against them in QB Christian Ponder’s first start. While Ponder was intercepted twice and completed just 13-of-32 passes in that game, he still racked up 219 yards and had a couple of long completions to WR Michael Jenkins. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense figures to do whatever they want against the Vikings defense. He has a 124.5 passer rating and 310.3 YPG against Minnesota over the past two years, and the Vikings’ injury-plagued secondary can’t match up with Green Bay’s receivers. Considering Minnesota is 0-6 ATS in its past six road games following a victory, and the Packers are 16-4 ATS after 3+ wins in a row under head coach Mike McCarthy, the pick here is GREEN BAY to cover the two-touchdown spread.

This four-star FoxSheets coaching trend also supports the Packers:

Mike McCarthy is 17-3 ATS (85.0%, +13.7 Units) off a non-conference game as the coach of GREEN BAY. The average score was GREEN BAY 28.5, OPPONENT 18.3 - (Rating = 4*).

Rodgers has been amazing during his team’s 14-game win streak, throwing for 4,340 yards (310 YPG), 38 TD and just 6 INT. He has also enjoyed picking apart Minnesota in his career, tossing 15 TD and only three picks in seven career meetings with the Vikings. WR Greg Jennings has scored in each of the past four meetings with Minnesota, totaling 28 catches for 461 yards and six touchdowns. Green Bay’s running game is slowly, but surely, improving. The team has rushed for 57, 96, 114 and 136 yards in the past four games. RB James Starks had a strong 75 yards on 13 carries (5.8 YPC) in the October trip to the Metrodome, and also had 66 yards on 13 carries (5.1 YPC) in last week’s win in San Diego.

The Packers are still allowing 300 passing YPG (2nd-most in NFL), but have a league-high 16 interceptions. Charles Woodson (five picks) leads the way, followed by Charlie Peprah (4 INT), who picked off two Philip Rivers passes last week, returning one 40 yards for a touchdown. Tramon Williams also had a pick-six against Rivers, returning an INT for 43 yards for a score.

Although the Vikings haven’t won a whole lot of recent trips to Lambeau Field, they have an 11-9 ATS advantage in the past 20 meetings in Green Bay. Vikings monster RB Adrian Peterson has done all he can to carry this offense in 2011, with 795 rushing yards (fourth in NFL) on 166 carries (tied for most in NFL). His nine touchdown runs are also tied atop the league and Peterson has fumbled just once in the first half of 2011. And considering what he has done to Green Bay defenders over the years, you better believe he will get a heavy workload on Monday night. In nine career games against the Pack, Peterson has 982 rushing yards (109.1 YPG) and six touchdowns. Peterson’s presence alleviates the pressure on Ponder to perform, but the rookie improved his completion percentage fro 40.6% in his first start to 64.3% in the Vikings’ last game at Carolina, a 24-21 win.

Minnesota’s pass defense ranks slightly above Green Bay’s at 274 YPG (30th in NFL), but it is still missing two cornerbacks in starter Antoine Winfield (neck) and reserve Chris Cook (suspension). The Vikings shouldn’t have much problem containing the Packers middling ground game. Minnesota ranks fifth in the NFL in rushing defense (94 YPG) and Green Bay has gained an average of 89 rushing YPG in the past five meetings.

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MNF - Vikings at Packers

November 13, 2011

Two NFC North rivals going in different directions wrap up the Week 10 card at Lambeau Field. The Packers (8-0) are riding a 14-game winning streak dating back to Week 16 of last season, while Green Bay has a terrific shot to finish the regular season at 16-0. The next task for Mike McCarthy's club is the last-place Vikings (2-6), who have played well since changing things up at quarterback.

After the Brett Favre experiment ended last season, the Vikings turned to another veteran in Donovan McNabb. However, that didn't work out well as Minnesota started the season at 0-4, even though the Vikings managed to cover in losses to the Chargers and Lions. Following a humiliating 39-10 blowout loss at Chicago in Week 6, head coach Leslie Frazier decided to pull the plug on McNabb and start rookie Christian Ponder at quarterback.

The first round pick from Florida State infused life into the Minnesota attack, as Ponder threw a pair of touchdown passes in a 33-27 home loss to the Packers. The Vikings covered as 10-point underdogs, as Adrian Peterson ran all over the Green Bay defense with 175 yards and a touchdown. Aaron Rodgers threw for 335 yards and three touchdowns, including two scores in a 20-point third quarter outburst.

Minnesota picked up its second win of the season and first under Ponder in a 24-21 victory at Carolina as three-point 'dogs. The Vikings won the battle of rookie quarterbacks, even though top pick Cam Newton threw for 290 yards and three touchdowns in the loss. Ponder led the Vikings on a pair of scoring drives to erase a seven-point deficit late, including Ryan Longwell's go-ahead field goal with less than three minutes remaining.

The Packers' offense continued to cruise in a 45-38 shootout victory at San Diego last Sunday as 5 ½-point favorites. Rodgers delivered another efficient performance with four touchdown tosses to four different receivers, while the defense intercepted three Philip Rivers' passes. Green Bay improved to 6-2 ATS with the road cover, as the two ATS defeats have come as double-digit away favorites.

This has been an incredible run for the Packers from both the SU and ATS perspective since beating the Giants in Week 16 of last season. Green Bay has covered 11 times during this 14-game winning streak, while cashing in seven of the previous eight contests at Lambeau Field.

Underdogs are on a nice run in Monday night games recently by cashing in each of the last three weeks. However, two of those 'dogs were at home (Jacksonville and Kansas City), while Chicago won outright at Philadelphia last week as eight-point 'dogs, 30-24. The home team is 7-3 SU this season on Monday night, but home favorites are just 3-4 ATS, including the Buccaneers as the lone double-digit home 'chalk' coming into this Monday (Tampa Bay failed to cover in a seven-point win).

Interestingly enough, the Packers are making their one and only appearance under the Monday night lights this season against the Vikings, which is rare for a team that just won the Super Bowl. Granted, Green Bay played in the Thursday night season opener against New Orleans and won 42-34 as five-point favorites, but is playing in its third primetime game this season. The Packers made just one appearance on Monday night last season and lost as three-point favorites at Chicago, 20-17. Green Bay owns a 2-0 SU/ATS mark on Monday nights in McCarthy's tenure at Lambeau Field, including a 27-14 blowout of the Ravens back in 2009.

Minnesota isn't a prime candidate to be on Monday night since the retirement of Favre, as the Vikings are back in this spot for the first time since a 29-20 loss to the Jets last season as four-point underdogs. New York put up a front-door cover on a late interception-return for a touchdown on an errant Favre throw, while the game went 'over' the total of 39 in spite of just nine points scored in the first half.

The Packers are listed as 13-point favorites on Monday night, while the total is set at 50 ½. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN and kicks off at 8:30 PM EST from Lambeau Field.