The Bum's NFL Week # 10 Best Bets 11/10-11/14 !

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NFL Trends - Week 10

November 9, 2011

Thursday, Nov. 10 (8:20 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Raiders won and covered both meetings LY and have covered last 4 vs. SD since 2009. Oakland has also covered its last four on road. Raiders, based on team trends.



Sunday, Nov. 13 (1:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Bengals have won and covered their last five in 2011. Cincy also "under" 8-3-1 last 12 since late 2010. Marvin Lewis 8-1 last 9 as home dog. Bengals and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

Denver has covered last two and three of last four at Arrowhead. "Overs" 6-2 last 8 in series, and Broncos "over" 23-7 last 30 since late 2009. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

Jags "under" 7-1 in 2011. Road team had covered six straight in series prior to LY when home team covered both. Indy 2-7 vs. line TY, no covers last four. Jags and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

Chan has covered first four as dog TY. Dallas 2-7 last 9 as home chalk (2-3 for Jason Garrett). Cowboys "under" last 3 TY after "over" 16-4 previous 20. Bills "over" 6-2 last 8 since late 2010. Bills and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Houston "under" 6-3 TY for Wade Phillips. Bucs 2-2 vs. line at home TY but still just 5-17-1 last 23 vs. spread at Raymond James Stadium. Texans and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

Ugh! Carolina 5-2 vs. line last seven TY. Panthers also "over" 5-3 in 2011. Titans "over" 3-1-1 last five TY. Slight to "over," based on "totals" trends.

Sparano 0-3 vs. line at home TY, no covers last seven as host, 5-19 against number last 24 at Sun Life Stadium. Sparano "over" 13-6 last 19 at home as well. Skins no wins or covers last 4 TY and "under" 12-3 last 15 since mid 2010. Skins, based on extended Sparano home woes.

Falcons have covered 3 of last 4 meetings, split 1-1 LY. Saints 1-4 vs. line away TY, 2-8 last 10 against spread away. Saints "over" 7-3 last 10 away as well. "Over" 5-1 last six meetings. "Over" and slight to Falcons, based on "totals" and team trends.

Browns 1-7 vs. line TY, 1-11 last 12, 2-14 last 16 on board. Cleveland 0-5 as chalk since 2010. Rams "under" 9-4 last 13 since late LY. "Under" and Rams, based on "totals" and team trends.

Cards, 3-8 last 11 against number on road. Cards "over" 16-8-1 last 25 since late 2009. Eagles and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.


Sunday, Nov. 13 (4:05 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Pete Carroll still 8-4 vs. line at home since LY, also "over" 8-3 last 11 as host. Ravens "over" 6-2 last 8 away. "Over," based on "totals" trends.


Sunday, Nov. 13 (4:15 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Lions covered both meetings LY after Bears did same in 2009. Lions 3-0-1 vs. line away TY and 8-1-1 against points last 10 away. Lions "over" 6-0-1 last 7 on road. "Over" and Lions, based on "totals and team trends.

Harbaugh 7-0-1 vs. line TY, SF 8-0-1 last 9 on board since late 2010. 49ers 14-5-3 last 23 on board at Candlestick. Coughlin, however, 23-7 last 29 as dog. Niners also "over" 5-1 last 6 at home. "Over," based on "totals" trends.




Sunday, Nov. 13 (8:25 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

These two "over" all four since LY. Rex Ryan 2-0 SU and vs. line hosting Belichick. Patriots 8-3 against points last 11 away since losing early LY at Jets. "Over," based on "totals" trends.


Monday, Nov. 14 (8:35 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

"Overs" 5-1 last six in series. Pack 7-1 vs. points last 8 at Lambeau since mid 2010. Pack won and covered both meetings LY and is 11-3 vs. spread last 14 overall since late 2010. "Over" and Pack, based on "totals" and team trends.

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Raiders at Chargers

November 9, 2011

The AFC West race is currently the tightest one in football, not necessarily the best. Oakland, San Diego, and Kansas City each own 4-4 record atop the division, while Denver sits one game back at 3-3. The Chiefs and Broncos hook up on Sunday from Arrowhead Stadium, while the Raiders and Chargers get the Week 10 card going on Thursday night in Southern California.

These two old AFL rivals are each riding multiple-game losing skids, but the air has been deflated from Oakland’s balloon over the last two weeks. Since the Raiders acquired Carson Palmer from the Bengals, Oakland has been outscored 66-24 in home defeats to Kansas City and Denver. The Chiefs pitched the shutout at the Black Hole in Week 7, as Kansas City intercepted six passes, while taking two back for touchdowns.

Following the bye week, Oakland squandered a 10-point lead in a 38-24 home defeat to a Denver squad that had lost by 35 points the week prior. Making things worse for the Silver and Black, the Broncos rushed for 298 yards, including 117 from the nimble-footed Tim Tebow. The Raiders had an opportunity to pull off the season sweep of the Broncos, but the loss drops Oakland to 1-2 inside the division.

The Chargers looked to be in cruise control atop the AFC West at 4-1, but three consecutive losses to the Jets, Chiefs, and Packers has forced a three-way tie in the division. San Diego returned home after last Monday’s overtime loss at Kansas City to battle the unbeaten Packers. Green Bay traveled west and didn’t skip a beat in a 45-38 victory at Qualcomm Stadium to improve to 8-0, while San Diego failed to cover for the third straight week.

Both these offenses rank in the top-10 of the league, while the Raiders own the third-best rushing attack (151.9 yards/game). Oakland ran for just 100 yards in the 14-point loss to Denver, while missing leading rusher Darren McFadden to a foot injury. In fact, the former Arkansas standout has been hurt for several weeks as McFadden carried the ball just twice in the Kansas City blowout. McFadden is listed as ‘out’ with the short week, giving Michael Bush another opportunity to start at running back.

The Raiders swept the season series from the Chargers in 2010 by taking each game as a substantial underdog. Oakland won in the Black Hole last October, 35-27 as seven-point ‘dogs, in spite of getting outgained by San Diego, 506-279. The Raiders benefited from a safety, a blocked punt returned for a touchdown, and a fumble return for a score to seal the victory. Also, Oakland was able to win that game without the services of an injured McFadden in the backfield, while snapping a 13-game skid to San Diego that dated back to 2003.

In the second meeting last season in Southern California, the Raiders knocked out the Chargers with a swift kick to the face in a 28-13 rout as 12 ½-point ‘dogs. Oakland jumped out to a 14-0 lead after one quarter, thanks to a touchdown on the ground and through the air from Jason Campbell. San Diego was limited to 21 yards on the ground, as Ryan Mathews missed the game with a high ankle sprain. The loss snapped a four-game winning streak for the Bolts, while turning into a costly defeat as San Diego fell one game short for the AFC West title.

There is one strong trend that favors the Raiders in this game as Oakland owns a 14-3 ATS mark since 2008 as an underdog off a loss. The Silver and Black cashed in both instances this season against the Jets and Texans, as Oakland won each game outright. This trend has been an extremely strong on the road, with the Raiders going 8-2 ATS, including a 6-0 ATS mark inside the division.

The Chargers are listed as seven-point home favorites, while the total is set at 48. The game will be televised nationally on the NFL Network with kickoff set for 8:20 PM EST.

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Struggling Buccaneers Host Houston Texans

The Houston Texans take a three-game winning streak to the road Sunday when they visit the slumping Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Texans (6-3) have dropped two of their last three games away from home and face a Tampa Bay team that has gone 1-3 over its past four overall.

Houston opened as a 3-point road favorite according to the Don Best odds screen and has seen early betting action in its favor, as the line has moved to -3 ½ at some sportsbooks. The total remains at its initial 45 ½-point offering.

The Buccaneers (4-4) have seen their last three games go ‘under’ the total, but not because they're playing good defense. The Bucs have surrendered 20 points or more each time and are giving up an average of nearly 30 over their past four following a 27-16 road loss to the New Orleans Saints last week.

Tampa Bay played the Saints twice in the last three games and traveled to London for a matchup with the Chicago Bears in between. The team had won four of five prior to dropping two in a row to New Orleans and Chicago, although the one loss during that stretch was a 48-3 rout on the road against the San Francisco 49ers.

The Texans are tied for sixth in the latest Don Best Linemakers Poll and have played outstanding defense over their last three games, allowing an average of 11 points in winning all of them. However, they had given up an average of 27 in losses to the Baltimore Ravens and Oakland Raiders before this winning streak.

Houston is hoping to get All-Pro wide receiver Andre Johnson back following surgery on his hamstring. Johnson has missed the past five games and may sit out again with a bye on tap for Week 11.

Without him in the lineup, the Texans have pounded the ball on the ground with running backs Arian Foster and Ben Tate leading the charge. The duo rushed for 239 yards on 31 carries combined last week, scoring twice in the 30-12 victory against the Cleveland Browns.

The Bucs are ranked No. 18 and welcomed back their top rusher LeGarrette Blount against the Saints after he missed two games with a sprained knee. Blount rushed for 72 yards on 13 carries and will need to step up as the main option since backup Earnest Graham is out for the season with a torn Achilles.

Tampa Bay has managed to beat the spread in just seven of its last 26 home games. Houston has split its four road ventures this season, going 2-2 SU and ATS.

Kickoff from Raymond James Stadium is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by CBS. The weather forecast for Tampa Bay on Sunday is expected to be partly cloudy with a high temperature of 78.

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Surprising Cincinnati Bengals Host Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are 7-2 SU and ATS in the last nine games with the Bengals.
Few NFL pundits predicted the Cincinnati Bengals would be leading the Pittsburgh Steelers at this point in the season, but that’s exactly where we stand for Sunday afternoon’s AFC North showdown.

Cincinnati opened as 3-point home ‘dogs at Don Best and the line has yet to move. The total is 41 ½ points, down slightly from the 42 open. CBS will broadcast from Paul Brown Stadium at 1:00 p.m. (ET).

The Don Best Linemakers Poll is skeptical about the Bengals’ fortunes as well, ranking them 17th in the NFL (92.1). Pittsburgh is tied for fourth with New Orleans (97.3) and only trailing Green Bay, New England and Baltimore.

The Bengals (6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS) are riding a 5-game winning streak after a 24-17 win at Tennessee last week. They closed as 1 ½-point ‘dogs and have now covered five straight games as well.

The 41 combined points scored last week just slipped ‘under’ the 41 ½-point total. The ‘over’ was 6-1 in Cincinnati’s first seven games with its 24.4 PPG scoring (ranked 14th) higher than expected.

Rookie Andy Dalton gets a lot of the credit. He’s exhibited poise with an 85 quarterback rating (ranked 15th), which is higher than big names like Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers. The leading receiver is deep-threat rookie A.J. Green (599 yards) but Dalton’s 6.6 yards per attempt ranks just 26th. Getting questionable tight end Jermaine Gresham (hamstring) back would be a boost.

Dalton ranks 21st among NFL signal callers with 1,696 passing yards. The team is also just 21st in rushing (104.1 YPG). However, Dalton has 10 TDs in the red-zone without being picked off there, which has increased scoring.

Defense has also been a key with just 301.3 YPG allowed (ranked fourth). That includes the second-ranked run ‘D’ (84.5 YPG). The team could be missing linebacker Rey Maualuga (ankle), who has missed the last three games and is questionable.

The Bengals’ critics point towards their easy schedule, with only two of their first eight opponents currently having a winning record. Road tilts at Baltimore and Pittsburgh over the next three weeks will really turn up the heat in addition to Sunday’s game.

Cincinnati is 2-1 SU and ATS at home, beating Buffalo (23-20) and Indianapolis (27-17) and losing to San Francisco (13-8). It’s 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as a home underdog, 1-0 this year after getting 3-points from Buffalo.

The Steelers (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS) just suffered an emotional 23-20 Sunday night home loss to Baltimore that was decided with eight seconds left. They now sit a half-game behind both Baltimore and Cincinnati in the AFC North and have already lost the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Ravens after getting swept.

Pittsburgh’s loss snapped a 4-game winning streak that was highlighted by a 25-17 victory over New England the week before. The team now heads on the road where it’s just 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS, having played only one road tilt since October 2.

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger can make dumb decisions at times, but he has 3-straight, 300 yard games and is ultra-dangerous with the game on the line. He won’t have receiver Emmanuel Sanders (knee) this week as he will be out a few games. That makes the probable return of Hines Ward (head) even more important.

The run defense did well last week in holding Baltimore to just 67 yards on 27 carries. Linebackers LaMarr Woodley (hamstring) and James Farrior (calf) missed last game and are each listed as questionable. The run ‘D’ has been stout all year at 95.6 YPG (ranked sixth) and Cedric Benson is not likely to have a big day, leaving the burden on Dalton.

Defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau would normally blitz the heck out of a rookie quarterback, but Dalton is more cerebral than most. The Steelers will certainly bring some intense pressure at times, but will more likely pick their spots in trying to confuse the TCU product.

This rivalry has been dominated by Pittsburgh lately, going 7-2 SU and ATS in the last nine. The two losses, both SU and ATS, came in 2009 during the Bengals' surprising run to the division title.

Pittsburgh is also 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 trips to Cincinnati.

Sunday weather in the Queen City should be cloudy and in the 50s.


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Denver Broncos Clash With Chiefs In Kansas City

There was once a time when there was about as much a mystery between eventual results of Denver (3-4 straight up and against the spread) and Kansas City (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS) matchups as there was when John Wooden’s UCLA Bruins hoopsters took the court.

Confounding scorelines over the past few weeks, however, make it anyone’s guess what might transpire when the Broncos and Chiefs tee it up Sunday afternoon at Arrowhead. The Don Best odds shows Kansas City posted as a 3-point favorite at most every Las Vegas property as of midweek, with the total solid at 41½.

Kickoff time off exit 9 of I-70 on Sunday is 1:00 p.m. (ET), with CBS providing the TV coverage. Bill Macatee, departing from his normal golf coverage duties, and Steve Tasker will describe the action.

Indeed, Denver was the Chiefs’ personal punching bag throughout the ’60s, dating to Kansas City’s days when campaigning as the Dallas Texans between 1960-62. In 20 meetings during the days of the AFL, the Chiefs/Texans beat the Broncos 19 times. Scorelines were often humiliating for Denver, beaten savagely by counts such as 59-7, 52-21, 37-10, 56-10, 52-9, 34-2 and 30-7. Only once in the ’60s did the Broncos beat Dallas/KC, that coming in the 1964 season at old Bears Stadium (prior to the days it was known as Mile High Stadium) by a 33-27 tally.

Denver finally announced a change in the dynamics of the rivalry in the first post-merger meeting on October 4, 1970, when a ferocious defensive effort by Lou Saban’s squad led the Broncos to a 26-13 win over the defending Super Bowl champs. The Chiefs gained just 121 yards that afternoon when QB Len Dawson was sacked seven times by a voracious Denver pass rush led by DE Rich “Tombstone” Jackson. Still, the Broncos would have to wait until 1974 before notching their first road win in the series, when John Ralston’s team won at Arrowhead by a 17-14 count.

Which brings us to Sunday, and teams off disparate efforts last week. The nature of the NFL suggests a certain weekly back-and-forth that would seem to apply to this matchup a week after Denver shocked Oakland by a 38-24 count, and the Chiefs were ambushed by the winless Dolphins, 31-3. That mindset would favor a Kansas City bounce-back this week.

There is plenty of statistical precedent for such thought, not to mention empirical evidence supporting the Chiefs’ bounce-back theory. Consider the last regular-season meeting between the two a year ago at Arrowhead, won by the Chiefs 10-6. Although KC didn’t cover the spread, and the affair was an unsightly one, the defining matchup was Romeo Crennel’s KC defense confusing the Denver offense with its ever-changing coverages.

Now, with young Tim Tebow at QB for Denver, it would seem to be advantage Chiefs, as the ex-Gator has been easily rattled and taken from his comfort zone by disguised blitzes and coverages in his three starts this season.

But, as Lee Corso might say, “Not so fast, my friends.”

Recognizing Tebow’s limitations, and strengths, Broncos coach John Fox devised a different mode of attack last week against the Raiders. Utilizing Tebow’s ability as a powerful runner, Denver introduced a series of read options into its playbook at Oakland, and the result was that the Raiders were almost helpless to stop the Bronco infantry. A now-healthy Willis McGahee and Tebow combined for 280 rush yards and two touchdowns on 32 carries last week at the Coliseum, the first time the Broncos had a pair of 100-yard rushers in a game since Jon Keyworth and Otis Armstrong turned the trick in the aforementioned 1974 season, also at Oakland.

Love him or loathe him, Tebow, in a non-traditional way, is going about silencing his many critics. The Broncos are now 2-1 in his starts this season, and nearly rallied from a huge deficit against San Diego in the other game in which he made an extended appearance. Over two seasons, Tebow’s record as a starter is a respectable 3-3. Moreover, Denver has rallied from double-digit deficits in each of Tebow’s wins, suggesting a contagious effect the former Heisman winner can have on teammates.

Tebow has also tossed just one pick (though it was returned for a 100-yard TD by the Lions) and six TDs in his work this season.

What Denver does against an angry Kansas City offense is another matter, but again the matchups might not be too bad for the Broncos. The Chiefs prefer to set up their running game with the pass, but Denver has proven it can collapse a pocket, having registered 20 sacks. Texas A&M rookie LB Von Miller has been making his presence felt, and then some, his Usain Bolt-like explosion at the snap helping him record 6½ sacks this season.

Miller is fast becoming a defensive difference-maker, a force that opposing offenses must account for on every play.

Denver will also like its chances to slow down Matt Cassel and the Chiefs’ aerial assault. Although Cassel passed for 607 yards and five TDs against the Broncos in two games last season, most of that damage came in the first meeting when the Broncos were sitting on a huge lead and allowed Cassel to pile up stats in a futile come-from-behind effort in a game Denver won easily, 49-29. Cassel’s 433 passing yards that afternoon in the Mile High City game were among the most misleading game statistics of 2010, with almost all of the damage occurring long after the outcome was decided.

More telling are the numbers in the second matchup, the taut 10-6 Chiefs win at Arrowhead, when Cassel was mostly ineffective, thanks largely to vet Bronco CB Champ Bailey who shadowed Cassel’s favorite receiving target, Dwayne Bowe. After allowing Bowe to catch 13 mostly meaningless passes in the first meeting, Bailey got serious and held Bowe catchless in the rematch.

Note, too, that KC has not been much of a margin team this season, with only its win over mistake-prone Oakland considered easy. Denver, surprisingly just a game out of the AFC West lead at midseason, could make the division race even more interesting with a mild upset on Sunday at Arrowhead.

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Saints Travel To Face Soaring Atlanta Falcons

The last two Saints, Falcons meetings in Atlanta have gone ’under.’
The soaring Atlanta Falcons hope to overtake the New Orleans Saints for the lead in the NFC South on Sunday when they square off at the Georgia Dome in the first of two meetings. The Falcons (5-3) are the defending division champions and ride a three-game winning streak into this key matchup against the Saints (6-3).

Game time is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by FOX.

New Orleans opened as a 1-point road favorite according to the Don Best odds screen, but early betting on Atlanta has pushed the line to a pick ’em. The total came out at 51 ½ and has since been bet down to 50 at most sportsbooks.

The underdog has beaten the line in the last four meetings between the teams, with the Falcons going 3-1 against the spread despite going 1-3 straight up in those games. The Saints are tied for fourth in the latest Don Best Linemakers Poll and have won eight of the past 10 meetings in the series.

The road team emerged victorious in each game last year, with the Saints taking a 17-14 victory as two-point underdogs in Week 16 at the Georgia Dome. A short touchdown pass from Drew Brees to tight end Jimmy Graham with just over three minutes remaining proved to be the winning score.

Brees currently leads the NFL with 3,004 passing yards this season while Graham ranks fifth among all receivers with 791 yards.

The Dec. 2010 meeting ended well short of the 50-point line, which was also the same closing total in the 2009 game in Atlanta that saw the Saints slip past the Falcons, 26-23.

New Orleans has dropped its last two road games overall and failed to cover three in a row away from home since beating the Jacksonville Jaguars 23-10 during a four-game winning streak. The Saints are coming off a 27-16 home win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week, which followed a 31-21 road loss to the St. Louis Rams.

Atlanta’s past two wins have both came on the road, and the team’s last home victory took place on October 16 against the Carolina Panthers, 31-17. The Falcons fell two spots in the Don Best rankings to No. 16 despite their winning streak and have seen their past four games go ‘under’ the total.

Atlanta drafted rookie wide receiver Julio Jones in the first round this year in hopes of adding another offensive weapon that could help beat New Orleans. Jones turned in the best performance of his young career in a 31-7 win over the Indianapolis Colts last week, totaling three catches for 131 yards with two of them going for touchdowns. He also ran the ball twice for 33 yards.

The Falcons enter Week 10 in excellent health with strong safety William Moore (thigh) the only question mark for this Sunday. New Orleans will likely still be without halfback Mark Ingram (heel) along with starting corner Tracy Porter (neck) who was involved in a frightening collision during last week's win over the Bucs.


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Kolb Injury Delays Odds For Eagles, Cardinals Game

The Philadelphia Eagles hope to keep their slim playoff hopes alive with a win at home over the Arizona Cardinals this Sunday.

Sunday’s game starts at 1:00 p.m. (ET) and will be televised nationally on FOX. NFL odds have yet to be posted due to the uncertain status of Arizona quarterback Kevin Kolb.

Despite the fact that Philadelphia is just 3-5 SU and ATS, the Don Best Linemakers Poll still considers the Eagles one of the NFL’s strongest teams, ranking them at No. 9 this week. Arizona is in the bottom 10, coming in at No. 25 in this week’s poll.

Arizona (2-6) snapped a six-game losing streak with an overtime win over the St. Louis Rams last week, winning 19-13 on a 99-yard punt return by Patrick Peterson. The Cardinals improved to 4-4 ATS with the cover as a 1 ½-point home favorite.

One of the major storylines around this game was supposed to be Kolb’s return to face his former team, but that showdown is in question with Kolb doubtful with a foot injury that casued him to miss last week's contest. Kolb hasn't been ruled out yet and his backup, John Skelton, did a serviceable job filling in last week against St. Louis, going 20-for-35 passing with one touchdown and no interceptions.

Philadelphia (3-5) looked to be back on the right track after a 34-7 win over Dallas two weeks ago, but the Eagles hit another speed bump Monday night losing outright to the Chicago Bears as an 8-point favorite at home. The New York Giants seem to be pulling away in the NFC East at 6-2, and at this point Philadelphia will have to finish the season 7-1 just to get to 10 wins.

The Eagles’ 23rd ranked rushing defense (124 rushing yards against per game) again proved to be an Achilles heel Monday night. Philadelphia allowed 164 rushing yards, which also opened up the passing game for Jay Cutler. The Eagles should get a reprieve this week with Arizona’s 26th ranked rushing attack (95.9 rushing yards per game) coming to town, but they’ll obviously need to resolve this issue down the stretch.

Philadelphia has been a favorite of over four points three times this season, and is 0-3 both SU and ATS in those three games. Arizona is 0-2 SU and 2-0 ATS as an underdog of more than four points this season.

Once the line is released, Philadelphia figures to be a considerable favorite at home.

Historically, totals betting has trended towards the ‘over’ when these two teams have met, going 8-1-1 in their last 10 meetings. Seven of those games were from 2002 or earlier. More recently, the total has gone ‘under’ in five of Arizona’s last seven games on the road and five of Philadelphia’s last seven games at home.

A cloudy day is forecast for the City of Brotherley Love this Sunday, though temperatures are expected to be mild with an afternoon high reaching the low-60s.

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Colts And Lions Lead Week 10 Dog Pound

Season-long results in the NFL couldn’t be much closer regarding favorites and underdogs, with the chalk now trailing by a narrow 64-63 count after last weekend’s game.

There are some underdogs out there, alright, and we look for a few special ones to recommend this week.

Oakland (+7) at San Diego (Thursday night)
The Raiders are going to be a tough sell as long as Carson Palmer continues to resemble his form from Cincinnati last season; after tossing three picks in both of his first two games in an Oakland uniform, Palmer has now coughed up 26 interceptions since a year ago. His teams are also 4-14 straight up that span. Who knew Jason Campbell would be so important to Oakland fortunes? But Philip Rivers (NFL-high 14 picks this season) is having some of the same problems for the Bolts, and evidence is growing that Rivers’ supporting cast is not what it was in recent years. Oakland, which beat the Chargers twice last season, might be worth a look if RB Darren McFadden makes the post after his recent foot injury.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (+3)
Conflicting trends, with the Bengals on a stunning 5-game win and cover streak, and the Steelers off a straight-up loss, having won and covered six straight for coach Mike Tomlin in that role. There’s a lot more finesse in this year’s Steelers attack than recent years, with Ben Roethlisberger taking advantage of a mostly young and explosive WR corps. Though we respect what rookie QB Andy Dalton is doing in Cincy, he hasn’t faced an “elite” team yet, unless you want to consider Week 3 foe San Francisco as much. That was also the Bengals’ last loss. This dog is a harder sell with Tomlin’s record after a loss as a hurdle to overcome.

Denver (+3) at Kansas City
The back-and-forth nature of the NFL suggests that the disparate efforts of these two from last week could quickly reverse. But before dismissing Tim Tebow and Denver, consider that Oakland was completely flummoxed with the “read option” coach John Fox put into the Bronco playbook to take advantage of Tebow’s mobility. That also opened up the run lanes for now-healthy Willis McGahee against the Raiders and resulted in Denver gaining a whopping 299 yards on the ground. Denver’s pass rush pressure might also fluster Chief QB Matt Cassel, who likes to establish the pass to set up the run. If you can find the hook, keep the Broncos in mind, especially with Denver all of a sudden in the thick of the wide open AFC West.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (+3)
Can the winless Colts just draft Andrew Luck right now and put him into the lineup? Indy would be better off in that scenario than with either Curtis Painter or Dan Orlovsky, which underlines coach Jim Caldwell’s plight. By the way, can Peyton Manning win an NFL MVP award in absentia? But this is the NFL, where strange things are happening each week, and it really wouldn’t be strange at all for punchless Jacksonville (scoring only 12.4 ppg) to fall short again on the road, where it is 0-4 SU this season. Indy did play Pittsburgh and Kansas City down to the wire not long ago at Lucas Oil. Jags coach Jack Del Rio’s job might be on the line this week and next at Cleveland, but we’re not compelled to back this offense laying points on the road. Even at Indy.

Houston at Tampa Bay (+3)
All of a sudden, the season seems to be getting away from the Bucs, who are beginning to lose contact with the Saints and Falcons in the NFC South. Tampa Bay has beaten both of those foes at Raymond James Stadium this year, however, and RB LeGarrette Blount did return to the lineup last week. Can’t complain about anything other than the traffic and the Astros these days in Houston, especially with the Texans running away with the AFC South. But an expected desperate effort by the Bucs makes them an intriguing dog this week.

Tennessee (+3) at Carolina
We know that Cam Newton has sparked the Panthers, who are much more potent than they were a year ago when laboring with Jimmy Clausen at the controls. But Carolina is still having trouble putting teams away. Tennessee is not incompetent defensively, and QB Matt Hasselbeck is still bravely hanging in the pocket, although the downfield passing game has suffered in Kenny Britt’s absence. The Titans did seem to get RB Chris Johnson a bit on track last week vs. the Colts. Tennessee is a very capable dog recommendation against an unreliable favorite in Charlotte.

Washington (+3½) at Miami
Recalling the 'Skins-Dolphins Super Bowl VII, do you think Mike Shanahan might want to give Garo Yepremian a call to provide any sort of help he can for Washington this week? Fundamentally, this is a tough case to make for the Redskins, whose offense has bogged down since RB Tim Hightower and WR Santana Moss went down with injuries. And QB John Beck (an ex-Dolphin) hasn’t won a starting assignment since his college days at BYU. But the atmosphere in South Florida is toxic these days, and Miami coach Tony Sparano is even hearing it from disgruntled Dolphins fans who wanted the Fins to keep losing so they could have a better shot at Andrew Luck in next April’s NFL Draft. Technically, however, there’s a very strong case to be made against Miami, with no covers in its last seven or 19 of its last 24 at Sun Life Stadium.

New Orleans (Pick) at Atlanta
The line is hovering near pick ’em in this one, so no real dog recommendations to make. But one of the better games of the weekend, to be sure.

Detroit (+2½) at Chicago
The Bears moved to a bit more solid favorite after their fine Monday night show in Philadelphia. This one is a rematch of last month’s Monday nighter at Ford Field, when the Lions broke several long plays en route to a 24-13 win and cover. Chicago’s efforts have been good since, with three straight wins, personnel adjustments in the secondary and RB Matt Forte taking a lot of pressure off of QB Jay Cutler offensively. The Lions, however, are 18-5-1 vs. the line since last season and 8-1-1 against the spread their last 10 on the road. They have the firepower to outscore the Bears once more.

St. Louis (+2½) at Cleveland
The Rams played in some bad luck last week against the Cardinals. The Browns? They’re just plain bad, with covers in only two of their last 16 games since midway last season, and Peyton Hillis becoming a real distraction. Sam Bradford and Steven Jackson are back and healthy in the Rams’ lineup, and Brandon Lloyd is contributing as a new wide receiver. St. Louis looks as if it has some wins in it the rest of the season; not sure about Cleveland.

Arizona (+14) at Philadelphia
Looks like a wrong-place, wrong-time scenario for the Cardinals against angry host Philly. Still not sure if Kevin Kolb will make the post for the Big Red due to a foot injury, which would rob this matchup of its most interesting angle as he returns to face his former employer. Not sure we would fancy Arizona with QB John Skelton (who’s really not too bad) in the lineup. Can the Cards force the Eagles to punt enough to give Patrick Peterson enough chances on returns?

Baltimore at Seattle (+6½)
Remember the last time the Ravens laid big points on the road? They came up flat at Jacksonville in a recent Monday night game. Baltimore also couldn’t cover as big favorite at home two weeks ago against the Cardinals. And after their opening-week win over the Steelers, the Ravens were decidedly flat the next week at Tennessee. In the absence of any clear fundamental reasons to back Seattle, the technical factors make a better case for Pete Carroll’s team, which has actually covered five of its last six this season.

NY Giants (+3½) at San Francisco
It’s a bit risky bucking a San Francisco team that hasn’t dropped a spread decision yet this season (7-0-1 vs. line), as 49er coach Jim Harbaugh matches his old Stanford team win-for-win and cover-for-cover. The case for the underdog Giants has some merit, however, considering Tom Coughlin’s 23-7 mark his last 30 chances getting points. But with Eli Manning at the top of his game, at least we know the G-Men are capable.

New England (+1½) at NY Jets
Before getting too excited about getting the Patriots plus any points, remember that the home team has won all five regular-season meetings between these bitter AFC East rivals since Rex Ryan became coach of the Jets in 2009. And teams are catching on to the formula to disrupt Tom Brady, providing heavy inside pressure to force Brady into uncomfortable movements in the pocket.

Minnesota (+14) at Green Bay (Monday)
It’s always very tempting to take the “tall cotton” (14 points or more) in the NFL. And the Vikings have shown plenty of spark the past few games since rookie Christian Ponder has supplanted past sell-by date Donovan McNabb at QB. But do we really want to recommend against a Packer team that has won 14 straight games and covered 11 of those, many be double-digit margins?

Recommended dogs this week: Indianapolis, Washington, Detroit, Seattle.


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Jacksonville Jaguars On Road At Indianapolis Colts

Two teams at the bottom of the AFC South will meet up this Sunday when the Jacksonville Jaguars go up to Indianapolis to take on the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. (ET) with coverage being handled by CBS.

Currently on the Don Best odds screen, the Jags are a 3-point road favorite with a low total set at 38.

This is not the season that either team envisioned.

Obviously, the Colts have not earned a win yet this season because of the absence of QB Peyton Manning. This franchise, a regular season powerhouse, has proven far too dependent on one man and did not properly prepare for this situation.

For the Jaguars (2-6), they are in the third year of a rebuild and with arguably their best roster in that span, an anemic passing offense has held them back. Jacksonville did not want to turn the keys over to rookie QB Blaine Gabbert but were forced to when Luke McCown thought he played for the Jets in Week 2.

Well, now it’s Week 10. What can we expect from these squads this Sunday?

The simple answer is not a lot of offense. Indy and Jacksonville are No. 31 and No. 32 in terms of yards gained, respectively. The Colts score 14.2 points per game and the Jags are at the bottom averaging 12.2. If an NFL game could end 14.2-12.2, this one probably would.

There is only one factor that separates these division foes and it is a big one. The Jags are a top-5 NFL defense while the Colts arguably have the worst in the league. Not that much should be expected from a team without a win, but the only shining light in Indianapolis right now is that they could get the chance to draft Andrew Luck.

There is nothing that the Colts can hang their hat on. They give up the most points, the second most yards, and quarterbacks average a passer rating of 112.1 against them which is far and away the worst. They have a third-year QB who completes just over 50 percent of his passes and the team has a turnover ratio of -8.

What the Colts have to hope for to get their first win of the season is for their playmakers to step up in a division battle. Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney have to terrorize Gabbert, and Reggie Wayne or Pierre Garcon need to make a big play or two.

The problem with that is the Jaguars don’t really give up big plays on defense. Also, if the offensive line can protect against those defensive ends, “Gabbo” could have his absolute best day as a pro. That is, if Jacksonville’s wide receivers can hold on to the ball.

It almost seems impossible for this game to go ‘over’ the total. The most points the Jags have scored in a game this year was 20. As for the Colts, they have scored a total of 24 points in their last three games combined and will be facing a better defense this week than they saw in those matchups.

Defenses may have to score in this one which takes us to the real battle, Adam Vinatieri versus Josh Scobee. Vinatieri is a mere 10-for-13 on his field goals this year while Scobee is a perfect 14-for-14. Sarcasm aside, the kickers may play a crucial role in this one.

Tight end Dallas Clark is doubtful this week for the Colts while the Jaguars seem to be fairly healthy.

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Buffalo Bills In Key Matchup At Dallas Cowboys

Ryan Fitzpatrick leads the underdog Bills against the Cowboys.
If there is a crossroads matchup for both teams in NFL action this weekend, it likely takes place at Jerry Jones’ Cowboys Stadium in Arlington.

Indeed, most NFL insiders suggest the loser of this Sunday’s matchup between Jones’ Dallas Cowboys (4-4 straight up, 3-4-1 against the spread) and the Buffalo Bills (5-3 SU & ATS) will be heading in the wrong direction as the second half of the season commences.

At midweek, the Don Best odds screen shows the Cowboys favored in the 5-6 point range at Las Vegas sports books, with some recent movement downward, suggesting mild support for the Bills at those prices. The total is a solid 48 at almost every property.

Kickoff will be 1:00 p.m. (ET), with CBS providing the TV coverage. The presence of broadcasters Jim Nantz and Phil Simms indicates the appeal of the matchup, which will be televised to much of the country.

Conventional wisdom seems to indicate that this battle is more of a fork-in-the-road game for the Bills, who have shown signs of weakening since their 3-0 start. Back-and-forth since with three losses in five starts, Buffalo is off its first truly poor effort of the season last week against the Jets. The Bills were stymied for much of the afternoon, not scoring a TD until the final three minutes of action in the 27-11 setback. Moreover, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick had his first subpar performance of the season, completing less than half of his passes (15-of-31) and tossing two picks.

The NFL is rightly labeled as a copycat league, and opposing defenses are beginning to have some success against the Bills’ five-wide formations by simply employing five or six defensive backs as the situations warrant. Fitzpatrick was rattled by this strategy employed by Rex Ryan’s defense last week. And since we can assume a line of communication between Rex and brother Rob, the Dallas defensive coordinator, expect the Cowboys to do many of the same things this week.

Of course, with a secondary led by Darrelle Revis, the Jets could cover the Buffalo receivers one-on-one. How successful Dallas will be with similar tactics remains to be seen.

Of more concern to Bills’ coach Chan Gailey is his own defense that has sprung several leaks in recent weeks. AFC East onlookers were not convinced that a 23-0 whitewashing of troubled Washington two weeks ago in Toronto was a “buy” signal for the Buffalo stop unit, which among other things more than doubled its season sack total in one afternoon alone against Washington. The Bills had all of four sacks before facing the 'Skins, against whom they registered a hard-to-believe nine QB drops.

But Buffalo “D” issues arose again last week against the Jets, who moved the ball consistently. The Bills have been getting some better production lately since Alabama rookie NT Marcell Dareus has begun to better clog up things in the middle, tackling (or lack thereof) remains an area of concern.

The Bills continue to allow a rather hefty 4.6 yards per carry, which could pose problems against emerging Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray, the Oklahoma rookie who has taken over as Dallas’ feature back. The ex-Sooner has gained 6.7 ypc in his three starts. Explosive RB Felix Jones might also return to the Cowboys lineup this week. And the mobility of Dallas QB Tony Romo presents another concern for Gailey’s stop unit on Sunday.

Still, Dallas looms as a rather untrustworthy favorite with Romo continuing to blow hot and cold. With deep-threat WR Miles Austin still hobbling with a hamstring injury, the Cowboys might not be able to stretch the field as they would like, instead having to focus on Murray’s runs and underneath passes to reliable TE Jason Witten (team-best 44 catches), who has repeatedly burned opposing 3-4 defenses (such as Buffalo’s) this season. Austin’s replacement, Laurent Robinson, has been adequate in relief, but lacks the speed to stretch the field.

As for that untrustworthy favorite stuff, note that after narrowly failing to cover the number last week against Seattle, Dallas has now dropped eight of its last 10 pointspread decisions as chalk. Various mistakes have haunted the Cowboys in the red zone all season and resurfaced last week against the Seahawks.

A key injury to watch is that of Dallas LB Sean Lee, who has missed recent action with wrist problems. Lee’s absence has made the Cowboys more vulnerable to crossing routes and flares, of which Fitzpatrick can execute competently. This is also an area in which Buffalo RB Fred Jackson excels, having caught 30 passes already this season.

This is a special game for Jackson, too, as he is an Arlington native. Although the Jets managed to slow him down last week, nobody else has this season, with Jackson en route to a monster campaign with 803 YR and 5.4 ypc entering this weekend.

Consider, too, the significance of this game for Gailey, who succeeded Barry Switzer as Cowboys coach for the 1998-99 seasons. Like many Dallas mentors over the years, Gailey was eventually dumped by owner Jones, so a success this weekend would be especially sweet for the Buffalo coach.

Also don’t forget how well Gailey’s clubs have performed this season as an underdog, covering the number in their first four chances receiving points.


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Tip Sheet - Week 10

November 10, 2011

It's crazy to think that games in Week 10 will dictate the playoff races in the NFL, but that is the case with several matchups this Sunday. Five afternoon contests have postseason implications for tiebreakers, including divisional battles between the Steelers and Bengals, Falcons and Saints, and the Lions taking on the Bears. We'll begin with an interconference battle of a pair of old Super Bowl rivals from the early 90's hooking up in Texas.

Bills at Cowboys (-5 ½, 48) - 1:00 PM EST

Dallas dominated Buffalo in Super Bowls XXVII and XXVIII, as the two clubs meet at Cowboys Stadium on Sunday. The Cowboys (4-4) got back to .500 with a 23-13 victory over the Seahawks, but failed to cover as 11-point favorites. Dallas sits two games behind New York in the NFC East heading into Week 10, while Buffalo is locked into a three-way tie atop the AFC East with the Jets and Patriots at 5-3. A Bills' win puts Chan Gailey's team into first-place temporarily, but Buffalo needs a bounce-back effort after getting throttled by the Jets at home in Week 9.

Buffalo has cashed the 'under' in each of the last two games following six consecutive 'overs' to begin the season, while being held to its lowest point total of the season last Sunday (11). The Bills look to improve on a 1-2 SU and 1-1-1 ATS road mark, but the two defeats have come by three points each. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have registered four straight 'unders,' including a 3-1 record to the 'under' at home. Dallas isn't exactly a great wager as a home favorite, compiling a 2-8 ATS ledger in the last 10 contests when laying points in Arlington.

Steelers (-3, 41 ½) at Bengals - 1:00 PM EST

Through nine weeks, who in their right mind would have believed that Cincinnati (6-2) would own a better record than a Pittsburgh (6-3) squad coming off a Super Bowl appearance? The Bengals are pushing the right buttons, while putting together a 7-1 ATS mark behind a rookie quarterback and a coach that was on the hot seat to begin the season. Pittsburgh has work to do inside the AFC North after losing for the second time to rival Baltimore, 23-20 as 3 ½-point favorites on Sunday night.

Mike Tomlin's club has rebounded nicely following their first two losses this season with blowouts over the Seahawks and Titans. The Steelers have owned this series with a 7-2 SU/ATS mark since the 2006 season, including a 4-1 SU/ATS record in Cincinnati. Even though the Bengals have been listed as a home underdog once this season (a victory over Buffalo), Cincinnati is 10-3 ATS the previous 13 games in which it receives points at Paul Brown Stadium.

Saints at Falcons (PK, 50) - 1:00 PM EST

The top teams in the NFC South meet up at the Georgia Dome for the first of two matchups with the divisional lead on the line. New Orleans (6-3) jumped off the mat following the awful loss at previously winless St. Louis to beat Tampa Bay last Sunday, 27-16 as nine-point 'chalk.' Atlanta (5-3) cruised to a third straight win by dominating the pathetic Colts, 31-7 for its third road victory on the season.

The away team took both meetings last season, including a 17-14 triumph by New Orleans at the Georgia Dome in late December. However, the Falcons ended up winning the division title and clinching home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. New Orleans has won eight of the past ten matchups in the series, including four of the last five in Atlanta. The Falcons have put together a strong 7-3 ATS record against division opponents the last 10 contests, including a 2-1 ATS mark this season.

Lions at Bears (-2 ½, 45 ½) - 4:15 PM EST

The two teams that are fighting for second place in the NFC North behind the undefeated Packers hook up at Soldier Field for the second of two meetings. Chicago (5-3) is coming off a short week after an impressive Monday night triumph at Philadelphia, while Detroit (6-2) is fresh off the bye. The Lions are a perfect 4-0 away from Ford Field, as Jim Schwartz's squad goes for the season sweep of the Bears.

Detroit knocked off Chicago at home in early October, 24-13 as 6 ½-point favorites to improve to 5-0. The Lions dropped the next two games at home to the 49ers and Falcons, followed by a dominating performance at Denver. Chicago has responded well since that defeat at Ford Field by running off three straight wins, while scoring at least 30 points in four of its five victories this season. Lovie Smith's team hasn't lost focus following a road win, as the Bears are 7-2 ATS in this situation over the last nine contests.

Giants at 49ers (-3 ½, 42 ½) - 4:15 PM EST

If the playoffs started now, San Francisco (7-1) would have a first-round bye and host a division-round game at Candlestick Park. The 49ers are 2-1 against NFC East opponents as the Giants (6-2) invade the Bay on Sunday, looking for their second consecutive road underdog victory. New York rallied past New England in a thrilling 24-20 triumph as nine-point 'dogs, thanks to a late touchdown pass from Eli Manning.

The Giants are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS since an opening week loss at Washington, but Big Blue is just 2-5 ATS the last seven games off a road victory. New York has won and covered each of the last three meetings in the series, while heading out to San Francisco for the first time since a 24-6 blowout of the Niners in 2006. San Francisco owns a 4-0 ATS record as a favorite this season, while going 6-1-1 ATS since 2008 off a road win.

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Week 10 NFL Preview Capsules

November 10, 2011

BUFFALO (5-3) At DALLAS (4-4)

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

OPENING LINE - Cowboys by 6

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Buffalo 5-2-1; Dallas 3-4-1

SERIES RECORD - Cowboys lead 7-3

LAST MEETING - Cowboys beat Bills 25-24, Oct. 8, 2007

LAST WEEK - Bills lost to Jets 27-11; Cowboys beat Seahawks 23-13

BILLS OFFENSE - OVERALL (12), RUSH (7), PASS (15)

BILLS DEFENSE - OVERALL (26), RUSH (20), PASS (25)

COWBOYS OFFENSE - OVERALL (7), RUSH (12), PASS (7)

COWBOYS DEFENSE - OVERALL (11), RUSH (10), PASS (16)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Chan Gailey in second season as Buffalo's coach. His only other NFL head coaching job was with Cowboys from 1998-99, when he was 18-14 plus pair of playoff losses. ... Cowboys defeated Bills in consecutive Super Bowls, at end of 1992 and 1993 seasons. ... Buffalo plays next three games, and four of five, on road. ... Bills have chance to get to 6-3 for first time since 1999, last time they made playoffs. ... Bills RB Fred Jackson, third in NFL averaging 100 yards rushing per game, grew up in house that was on property where Cowboys Stadium sits. ... Buffalo has managed three points off four takeaways last three games after turning 16 takeaways into 79 points first five games. ... Twelve sacks by DeMarcus Ware puts him one from overtaking Greg Ellis for fourth-most in single season by Cowboys linebacker. Top three are all Ware, a list topped by his 20 in 2008. ... DeMarco Murray is first Dallas running back with multiple 100-yard rushing games in same season since Julius Jones in 2004. Murray had 139 yards against Seattle, his second 100-yard game this season. Rookie record for 100-yard games for a Dallas RB is Duane Thomas' four in 1970. NFL career rushing leader Emmitt Smith had three as rookie in 1990.

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DENVER (3-5) At KANSAS CITY (4-4)

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

OPENING LINE - Chiefs by 4

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Miami 3-5; Kansas City 5-3

SERIES RECORD - Chiefs lead 55-47

LAST MEETING - Chiefs beat Broncos 10-6, Dec. 5, 2010

LAST WEEK - Broncos beat Raiders 38-24; Chiefs lost to Dolphins 31-3

BRONCOS OFFENSE - OVERALL (20), RUSH (5), PASS (31)

BRONCOS DEFENSE - OVERALL (22), RUSH (15), PASS 23)

CHIEFS OFFENSE - OVERALL (24), RUSH (10), PASS (27)

CHIEFS DEFENSE - OVERALL (21), RUSH (19), PASS (21)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Kansas City's four wins have come by combined 40 points. Its four losses have been by 110. ... Chiefs have picked off 13 passes, tied for third in NFL. ... Only other team Kansas City has beaten at least 55 times is Oakland (also 55). ... Broncos QB Tim Tebow completing 46.4 percent of passes (45 of 97). ... Tebow has led seven scoring drives in fourth quarter or OT in last four games. ... Tebow has three of top four rushing games by a QB in Broncos history. Norris Weese ran for 120 yards on Dec. 12, 1976. ... Chiefs CB Javier Arenas, out last week with ankle injury, second in NFL in punt return average (15.1 yards). ... RB Willis McGahee ran for 163 yards last week, most by Broncos running back since 2004. He leads league in yards rushing per start (103.3). ... Denver's 833 yards rushing over last four games are sixth-most over four-game stretch in franchise history. ... During McGahee's time in Baltimore, he played with Chiefs FB Le'Ron McClain, OT Jared Gaither, WR Terrence Copper, DT Kelly Gregg and DE Amon Gordon. ... Broncos OT Ryan Clady and Chiefs CB Brandon Carr are among five players who entered NFL in 2008 to have started in every possible regular-season game (56) for their team. Others are Baltimore QB Joe Flacco, Chicago RB Matt Forte and Miami OT Jake Long.

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WASHINGTON (3-5) At MIAMI (1-7)

Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox

OPENING LINE - Dolphins by 3 1/2

2011 RECORD VS. SPREAD - Redskins 3-5; Dolphins 3-5

SERIES RECORD - Dolphins lead 7-5

LAST MEETING - Redskins beat Dolphins, 16-13 in overtime on Sept. 9, 2007.

LAST WEEK - Redskins lost to 49ers 19-11; Dolphins won at Chiefs 31-3.

REDSKINS OFFENSE - OVERALL (21), RUSH (28), PASS (16)

REDSKINS DEFENSE - OVERALL (13), RUSH (21), PASS (11)

DOLPHINS OFFENSE - OVERALL (19), RUSH (15), PASS (24)

DOLPHINS DEFENSE - OVERALL (24T), RUSH (14), PASS (27)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - First meeting between teams came in Super Bowl, which 1972 Dolphins won to cap NFL's only perfect season. Redskins beat Miami in Super Bowl 10 years later. ... Both teams are minus-8 in turnover differential, tied for second-worst in league. ... Redskins have yet to score TD on an opening drive, while Dolphins outscored 59-28 in fourth quarter. ... Washington QB John Beck is 0-9, including 0-7 as starter. ... Redskins kick returner Brandon Banks tied for third in NFL in fumble recoveries with four. They're all his own fumbles. ... Washington has 25 sacks, third-most in NFL. ... Redskins defense also ranks among league leaders in first downs allowed per game (17.0), third-down conversion percentage (32.7) and red-zone percentage (37.0). ... Redskins kickoff coverage unit leads NFL, allowing 18.8 yards per return. ... Dolphins have lost 13 consecutive home games since Christmas 2009. ... In past four games, Miami's Reggie Bush has rushed for 308 yards while averaging 6.4 yards per carry. ... Miami QB Matt Moore chosen AFC offensive player of week after throwing three TD passes in win at Kansas City. ... Dolphins have converted 26 percent of third-down situations, worst in NFL. ... They rank last in sacks given up per pass play, with 27 allowed. ... Miami tied for last in league with two interceptions and two fumble recoveries.

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ST. LOUIS (1-7) At CLEVELAND (3-5)

Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox

OPENING LINE - Browns by 3

RECORD VS. SPREAD - St. Louis 1-7; Cleveland 1-6-1

SERIES RECORD - Browns lead 11-10

LAST MEETING - Browns beat Rams 27-20, Oct. 28, 2007

LAST WEEK - Rams lost 19-13 to Cardinals; Browns lost to Texans 30-12

RAMS OFFENSE - OVERALL (23), RUSH (18), PASS (26)

RAMS DEFENSE - OVERALL (24t), RUSH (32), PASS (12)

BROWNS OFFENSE - OVERALL (30), RUSH (31), PASS (25)

BROWNS DEFENSE - OVERALL (6), RUSH (30), PASS (1)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Browns coach Pat Shurmur faces former team. He spent previous two seasons as Rams offensive coordinator. ... Injuries taking toll on Browns as top RBs Peyton Hillis (hamstring) and Montario Hardesty (calf) will both miss second straight game. ... Starting S T.J. Ward also expected to sit out after injuring foot last week. ... WR Mohamed Massaquoi missed practice time this week as he continues to be bothered by concussion ... Browns gave up 261 yards rushing vs. Texans last week. ... Browns K Phil Dawson has connected on six field goals beyond 50 yards this season, a league-high and two shy of NFL record. ... WR Josh Cribbs has been team's lone consistent playmaker and could see time in backfield this week. ... QB Colt McCoy sacked four times last Sunday. ... This week's game will be first meeting as pros between McCoy and Rams QB Sam Bradford. They played each other three times in college with McCoy leading Texas to two wins over Oklahoma. ... Bradford returned from missing two games with high ankle sprain and passed for 256 yards last week. ... WR Brandon Lloyd, acquired from Denver before Week 7, had five catches for team-high 80 yards last week. ... Rams returning to roots. Franchise founded in Cleveland in 1937 and played eight seasons in Ohio before relocating to Los Angeles in 1946. ... Rams RB Steven Jackson seeking third straight 100-yard game.

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ARIZONA (2-6) At PHILADELPHIA (3-5)

Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox

OPENING LINE - OFF

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Arizona 3-4-1; Philadelphia 3-5

SERIES RECORD - Tied 55-54-5

LAST MEETING - Eagles beat Cardinals 48-20, Nov. 27, 2008

LAST WEEK - Cardinals beat Rams 19-13; Eagles Lost to Bears 30-24

CARDINALS OFFENSE - OVERALL (25), RUSH (26), PASS (20)

CARDINALS DEFENSE - OVERALL (28), RUSH (16), PASS (29)

EAGLES OFFENSE - OVERALL (3), RUSH (1), PASS (9)

EAGLES DEFENSE - OVERALL (12), RUSH (23), PASS (9)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Cardinals QB Kevin Kolb, suffering from turf toe injury, was Donovan McNabb's successor in Philadelphia. He was traded to Arizona for CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a draft pick in July. ... Other former Eagles on Cardinals include LB Stewart Bradley, DB Sean Considine, OL Jeremy Bridges. ... Eagles secondary coach Michael Zordich played for Cardinals from 1989-93. ... Eagles linebackers coach Mike Caldwell played for Cardinals in 1997. ... Cards WR Larry Fitzgerald has six TDs receiving in three games vs. Eagles. ... S Adrian Wilson has had at least a half-sack in four of last five meetings. ... DT Darnell Dockett's 29 1/2 sacks most at his position since 2007. ... RB Beanie Wells tied for third in NFL with seven TDs rushing. ... Eagles QB Michael Vick 2-0 as a starter vs. Cardinals. His last win was Oct. 1, 2006. ... RB LeSean McCoy first player since Hall of Famer Emmitt Smith to score TD in each of first eight games. He's tied for NFL lead with 11 TDs, including two receiving. ... WR DeSean Jackson has caught TD pass in last two meetings. ... WR Jeremy Maclin has seven straight 50-yard games. ... Eagles have accumulated 3,475 total net yards this season - a club-record through first eight games of season, and seventh-highest total in NFL since 1940.

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TENNESSEE (4-4) At CAROLINA (2-6)

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

OPENING LINE - Panthers by 3

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Tennessee 3-4-1; Carolina 5-2-1

SERIES RECORD - Panthers lead 3-2

LAST MEETING - Titans beat Panthers 20-7, Nov. 4, 2007

LAST WEEK - Titans lost to Bears 24-17; Panthers had bye

TITANS OFFENSE - OVERALL (27), RUSH (32), PASS (13)

TITANS DEFENSE - OVERALL (17), RUSH (24), PASS (15)

PANTHERS OFFENSE - OVERALL (5), RUSH (8), PASS (5)

PANTHERS DEFENSE - OVERALL (18), RUSH (27), PASS (13)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Titans have won 12 of past 13 games against NFC teams. ... QB Matt Hasselbeck has 90-plus passer rating in all but two games this year. ... Hasselbeck has six TDs vs. three picks on road this season. ... Titans last in league in rushing, averaging 70 yards per game. ... In 12 career games vs. NFC, RB Chris Johnson has averaged 106.3 yards rushing per game. Johnson needs 36 yards rushing to join Eddie George and Earl Campbell as only players in franchise history to reach 5,000. .WR Damian Williams has three TD catches in past five games.TE Jared Cook is averaging 16.7 yards per catch. ... Cam Newton has more yards passing (2,393) after eight games than any rookie QB in league history. Peyton Manning is next closest with 1,873 in 1998. ... Newton has led to Panthers to more touchdowns (21) in eight games than they scored during entire 2010 season (17). Newton has directly accounted for 18 of those scores with 11 touchdown passes and seven rushing scores. ... WR Steve Smith equaled team leading receptions total of last season with 46 and nearly doubled his 554 yards from a year ago with 918, which ranks second in NFL behind New England's Wes Welker. ... TE Greg Olsen and Jeremy Shockey have combined for 53 catches for 551 yards and five TDs through eight games... DE Charles Johnson has seven sacks in first half of season and 18 1/2 over last two. ... RB DeAngelo Williams needs 17 yards receiving to become first player in club history with 4,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards receiving.

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PITTSBURGH (6-3) At CINCINNATI (6-2)

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

OPENING LINE - Bengals by 3

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Pittsburgh 4-5; Cincinnati 7-1

SERIES RECORD - Steelers lead 50-32

LAST MEETING - Steelers beat Bengals 23-7, Dec. 12, 2010

LAST WEEK - Steelers lost to Ravens 23-20; Bengals beat Titans 24-17

STEELERS OFFENSE - OVERALL (9), RUSH (19), PASS (8)

STEELERS DEFENSE - OVERALL (3), RUSH (6), PASS (3)

BENGALS OFFENSE - OVERALL (22), RUSH (21), PASS (21)

BENGALS DEFENSE - OVERALL (4), RUSH (2), PASS (10)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - First capacity crowd this season at Paul Brown Stadium, with thousands of Steelers fans expected. That ends streak of seven straight regular season Bengals home games that failed to sell out. ... Steelers swept series last season and have won eight of last nine in Cincinnati. ... QB Ben Roethlisberger 6-1 career in Cincinnati. ... Roethlisberger has thrown for more than 300 yards in each of last three games, a franchise first. ... Steelers have been getting off to fast starts, scoring on 14 of 24 first-half possessions in last four games. They've scored touchdowns on four of last five game-opening drives. ... Mike Tomlin could get his 50th regular-season victory, joining Chuck Noll, Bill Cowher and Raymond ``Buddy'' Parker in that category. ... Bengals trying for sixth straight win, which would match second-longest streak in club history. They also won six in a row in 1973, 1975 and 1988. They won last seven games in 1970 - their third season as expansion franchise. ... Andy Dalton's 12 touchdown passes are most by rookie in first eight games of season since 1970 merger. Dalton trying to become first rookie QB with six wins in row since Vince Young in 2006. ... Dalton has thrown for 1,696 yards. He's 159 yards shy of breaking Greg Cook's team rookie mark from 1969. ... A.J. Green leads NFL rookie receivers in catches (40), yards (599) and touchdown catches (5).

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HOUSTON (6-3) At TAMPA BAY (4-4)

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

OPENING LINE - Texans by 3

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Houston 6-3; Tampa Bay 3-5

SERIES RECORD - Tied 1-1

LAST MEETING - Texans beat Buccaneers 28-14, Dec. 9, 2007

LAST WEEK - Texans beat Browns 30-12; Buccaneers lost to Saints 27-16

TEXANS OFFENSE - OVERALL (8), RUSH (2), PASS (14)

TEXANS DEFENSE - OVERALL (1), RUSH (4), PASS (2)

BUCCANEERS OFFENSE - OVERALL (15), RUSH (24), PASS (11)

BUCCANEERS DEFENSE - OVERALL (29), RUSH (26), PASS (28)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Although Texans and Buccaneers have faced each other nine times in exhibitions, teams are meeting for third time in regular season. Tampa Bay won at home in 2003, and Houston won other matchup at home in 2007. ... Texans have won three straight despite playing without WR Andre Johnson, sidelined by right hamstring injury. They are three games over .500 for first time in franchise history and have best record ever through nine games. ... Houston QB Matt Schaub excels on road, completing 64 percent of passes for 1,119 yards, eight TDs and one interception in four games. ... With Arian Foster and Ben Tate each running for over 100 yards, Texans amassed club-record 261 yards rushing in last week's win over Cleveland. Foster seeking fourth consecutive 100-plus game. ... Bucs QB Josh Freeman has thrown 10 interceptions after having six last season, his first as full-time starter. ... Tampa Bay RB LeGarrette Blount returned to lineup last week after missing two games with knee sprain. He averaged 5.5 yards per carry, however Tampa Bay fell behind early and had to abandon running game. Freeman threw for 281 yards, one TD and no interceptions, however Bucs settled for three field goals before scoring only touchdown in fourth quarter. ... Bucs defense allowing 132.4 yards per game rushing, which ranks 26th. They yielded 195 on ground during last week's loss and will be without second-year DT Gerald McCoy, who tore his right biceps against Saints and is out for season. DT Albert Haynesworth claimed off waivers to fill spot. He joined team for practice Thursday. In six games with New England, Haynesworth had three tackles and no sacks.

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NEW ORLEANS (6-3) At ATLANTA (5-3)

Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox

OPENING LINE - Falcons by 1

RECORD VS. SPREAD - New Orleans 5-4; Atlanta 4-4

SERIES RECORD - Falcons lead 46-38

LAST MEETING - Saints beat Falcons, 17-14, Dec. 27, 2010

LAST WEEK - Saints beat Buccaneers 27-16; Falcons beat Colts 31-7

SAINTS OFFENSE - OVERALL (1), RUSH (9), PASS (2)

SAINTS DEFENSE - OVERALL (15), RUSH (17), PASS (14)

FALCONS OFFENSE - OVERALL (14), RUSH (13), PASS (17)

FALCONS DEFENSE - OVERALL (14), RUSH (17), PASS (19)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Teams split season series last year with each team winning on road. Each game decided by three points, including Atlanta's 27-24 win in OT. ... Saints 8-2 against Falcons with Sean Payton as coach. ... Saints QB Drew Brees first player in NFL history with more than 3,000 yards passing (3,004) in first nine games of a season. ... Brees has completed 20 or more passes an NFL-record 29 consecutive games. ... Jimmy Graham leads NFL tight ends with 55 catches for 791 yards. ... RB Darren Sproles second in NFL with 56 catches. Graham third. ... Falcons QB Matt Ryan 8-1 in home division games with 10 TDs and three interceptions. ... Atlanta's Julio Jones had three catches for 131 yards against Colts last week and become league's first rookie since 1970 with TD catches of at least 50 and 80 yards in same game. They were first two TD catches of Jones' career. ... Falcons 22-5 at Georgia Dome since 2008, their first season with coach Mike Smith.

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JACKSONVILLE (2-6) At INDIANAPOLIS (0-9)

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

OPENING LINE - Jaguars by 3

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Jacksonville 2-5-1; Indianapolis 2-7

SERIES RECORD - Colts lead 15-5

LAST MEETING - Colts beat Jaguars 34-24, Dec. 19, 2010

LAST WEEK - Jaguars had bye; Colts lost to Falcons 31-7

JAGUARS OFFENSE - OVERALL (32), RUSH (13), PASS (32)

JAGUARS DEFENSE - OVERALL (5), RUSH (11), PASS (8)

COLTS OFFENSE - OVERALL (31), RUSH (23), PASS (28)

COLTS DEFENSE - OVERALL (31), RUSH (31), PASS (24)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Game features two worst offenses in NFL in yards per game. ... Former Colts LB Clint Session plays for Jaguars. ... Indianapolis could match worst start since losing first 10 games in 1997. ... Colts WR Pierre Garcon ninth in AFC in yards receiving with 591. ... Indianapolis has three of league's top 10 tacklers. LB Pat Angerer leads league with 97, S Antoine Bethea fourth with 75 and LB Kavell Conner eighth with 71. ... Colts DE Dwight Freeney has 98 1/2 career sacks - none since Week 5. He ranks third among active players. ... Jaguars 45-12 under coach Jack Del Rio when they score first. Colts have had deficits of 31-0, 20-0 and 21-0 past three weeks. ... Jacksonville RB Maurice Jones-Drew needs 12 yards to reach 6,000 for career. He would join Fred Taylor as only Jaguar to accomplish feat. ... Jacksonville only team in league that has not scored at least 100 points this season. ... Jacksonville K Josh Scobee 14-for-14 on field goals. ... Colts have league's No. 31 rushing defense, while Jacksonville is second in league in rushing attempts.

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BALTIMORE (6-2) At SEATTLE (2-6)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS

OPENING LINE - Ravens by 7 1/2

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Baltimore 5-3-0; Seattle 4-3-1

SERIES RECORD - Ravens lead 2-1

LAST MEETING - Seahawks beat Ravens 27-6, Dec. 23, 2007

LAST WEEK - Ravens beat Steelers 23-20; Seahawks lost to Cowboys 23-13

RAVENS OFFENSE - OVERALL (16), RUSH (22), PASS (12)

RAVENS DEFENSE - OVERALL (2), RUSH (3), PASS (5)

SEAHAWKS OFFENSE - OVERALL (29), RUSH (30), PASS (23)

SEAHAWKS DEFENSE - OVERALL (16), RUSH (13), PASS (18)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Baltimore trying for second 7-2 start in franchise history. Previous was 2006 when Ravens finished 13-3. Ravens have won five straight against NFC and have one loss against sub-.500 team after Week 2 since John Harbaugh took over as coach. ... Game in Seattle sandwiched around last week's division game at Pittsburgh and next week vs. Cincinnati. All three teams have six victories. ... Including playoffs, QB Joe Flacco's 42-21 record since 2008 is most wins for any starting QB in NFL, one ahead of Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees. ... WR Torrey Smith and his four TD catches are two behind Jamal Lewis for most TDs by any Ravens rookie. ... Ravens defense has not allowed any points on opponents' opening drives this season, only team in NFL to do so. Baltimore has given up 13 first-quarter points. ... S Ed Reed needs 20 interception return yards to set NFL record. He has 1,463 yards on 56 interceptions. ... Seahawks three-game losing streak is second of Pete Carroll's tenure with Seahawks. ... Seattle hasn't dropped four straight since losing final four games of 2009 season that eventually led to firing of Jim Mora. ... Seattle called for 10 penalties last week vs. Dallas, third time in four games it was called for 10 or more. In 24 games since Carroll took over, Seattle's picked up eight or more penalties 11 times. ... RB Marshawn Lynch coming off first 100-yard rushing game in regular season since Dec. 14, 2008 while with Buffalo. Lynch rushed for 135 yards on 23 carries vs. Dallas. ... TE Zach Miller held without catch last week against Dallas, with primary responsibility blocking. Miller has 11 catches and no TDs. ... Seahawks defense tied with Detroit and Cleveland for fewest second-half TDs allowed with four. ... DT Brandon Mebane leads NFC for tackles by interior defensive lineman with 27 total.

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NEW YORK GIANTS (6-2) At SAN FRANCISCO (7-1)

Sunday, 4:15 p.m., Fox

OPENING LINE - 49ers by 3 1/2

RECORD VS. SPREAD - New York 4-4, San Francisco 7-0-1

SERIES RECORD - Tied 17-17

LAST MEETING - Giants beat 49ers 29-17, Oct. 19, 2008

LAST WEEK - Giants beat Patriots 24-20; 49ers beat Redskins 19-11

GIANTS OFFENSE - OVERALL (11), RUSH (29), PASS (6)

GIANTS DEFENSE - OVERALL (19), RUSH (25), PASS (17)

49ERS OFFENSE - OVERALL (26), RUSH (6), PASS (30)

49ERS DEFENSE - OVERALL (9), RUSH (1), PASS (22)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Giants have won last three meetings since San Francisco's 39-38 win at Candlestick Park on Jan. 5, 2003, which Niners rallied from 24 points down in one of best comebacks in playoff history. Giants have been back since, winning 24-6 on Nov. 6, 2005. ... New York leads regular season series 14-13, while 49ers lead postseason series 4-3. Giants 5-10 overall at Candlestick - 4-7 during regular season, 1-3 in playoffs. ... 49ers RB Frank Gore, with a franchise-record five straight 100-yard games, has 7,196 career yards rushing and needs 149 to pass late Hall of Famer Joe Perry (7,344) for most yards rushing in club history. Giants have allowed four 100-yard rushers this season. ... San Francisco K David Akers has 78 points - making 19 of 21 field goals and all 21 of PATS - ranking first in franchise history for most points scored in team's first eight games. He's on pace to set team record for points scored in season. Hall of Fame WR Jerry Rice had 138 points in 1987. ... Giants C David Baas played for San Francisco from 2005-2010. ... 49ers top-ranked run defense hasn't allowed 100-yard rusher in 30 straight games, tied for fourth-longest streak since 2000. ... Giants have forced at least one turnover in 21 straight regular season games. ... Giants DE Jason Pierre-Paul has sack in five consecutive games.

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DETROIT (6-2) At CHICAGO (5-3)

Sunday, 4:15 p.m., Fox

OPENING LINE - Bears by 2 1/2

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Detroit 5-2-1; Chicago 4-4-0

SERIES RECORD - Bears lead 93-65-5

LAST MEETING - Lions beat Bears 24-13, Oct. 10, 2011

LAST WEEK - Lions had bye; Bears beat Philadelphia 30-24

LIONS OFFENSE - OVERALL (13), RUSH (27), PASS (10)

LIONS DEFENSE - OVERALL (10), RUSH (28), PASS (6)

BEARS OFFENSE - OVERALL (17), RUSH (11), PASS (18)

BEARS DEFENSE - OVERALL (23), RUSH (11t), PASS (26)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - In their first Monday night game in decade, Lions gave largest crowd at Ford Field plenty to cheer. Matthew Stafford connected with Calvin Johnson for 73-yard TD, Jahvid Best went untouched for 88-yard scoring run, and Bears committed nine false starts. ... Lions were 5-0 and unbeaten through five games for first time since 1956 after that game. ... Lions 4-0 on road this season. ... Lions third in league in scoring (29.9 points per game) and sixth in points allowed (18.4 per game). Their 92-point scoring margin ranks second. ... Lead league with plus-13 turnover margin (18 takeaways, five giveaways). ... Stafford fourth in TD passes (19) and passer rating (99.1). ... Johnson leads NFL in touchdown catches (11), fourth in yards receiving (804). Has four straight 100-yard receiving games, first Lion to do that since Herman Moore in 1997. ... Best likely to miss third straight game with concussion. ... Bears have won three straight since loss to Lions, beating Minnesota at home, Tampa Bay in London and Eagles at Philadelphia on Monday after off week. ... With 61 TD passes as Bear, Jay Cutler needs three to move ahead of Ed Brown and Erik Kramer (63 each) into fourth on club's list. Jim McMahon third with 67. ... Matt Forte ranks second in yards rushing (805), and fifth overall and fourth among RBs in yards per carry (5.4). Leads league in yards from scrimmage (1,241) and averaging 155.1 this season, fifth highest in NFL history. ... League's all-time leader with 16 kick-return touchdowns, Devin Hester needs to run back one kickoff return to tie Gale Sayers' club mark. Hester has returned five kickoffs for TDs.

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NEW ENGLAND (5-3) At NEW YORK JETS (5-3)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC

OPENING LINE - Pick-em

RECORD VS. SPREAD - New England 4-4; New York 4-4

SERIES RECORD - Patriots tied 52-52-1.

LAST MEETING - Patriots beat Jets 30-21, Oct. 9, 2011

LAST WEEK - Patriots lost to Giants 24-20; Jets beat Bills 27-11

PATRIOTS OFFENSE - OVERALL (2), RUSH (17), PASS (1)

PATRIOTS DEFENSE - OVERALL (32), RUSH (9), PASS (32)

JETS OFFENSE - OVERALL (28), RUSH (25), PASS (22)

JETS DEFENSE - OVERALL (8), RUSH (22), PASS (7)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Latest installment of one of NFL's most intense rivalries will leave winner with at least a tie for first place in AFC East. Buffalo, also 5-3, plays at Dallas. ... Teams have alternated wins and losses in series starting with Jets' season-opening win in 2009, with both 3-3 - including New York's 28-21 playoff victory last season. ... Patriots trying to avoid first three-game losing streak since 2002, when they lost four in a row en route to 9-7 season and missing playoffs. ... Patriots QB Tom Brady 15-5 in career vs. Jets, including postseason, but 3-3 in last six with 10 TDs and five INTs. Has thrown at least one TD pass in 24 straight games, a franchise mark. Brady tied with Joe Montana for eighth on NFL career list with 39 300-yard passing games. Needs 297 yards passing to join New Orleans' Drew Brees as only players to reach 3,000 yards passing in first nine games. ... WR Wes Welker moved passed Ben Coates for third place on Patriots' career list with 498 catches. He trails Troy Brown (557) and Stanley Morgan (534). ... CB Kyle Arrington tied for NFL lead with five INTs, including one of Eli Manning last Sunday. ... Patriots released DT Albert Haynesworth, who was claimed off waivers by Tampa Bay. ... Patriots DE Shaun Ellis, RB Danny Woodhead and S James Ihedigbo are ex-Jets. ... Jets looking for four-game winning streak following three-game skid. ... Jets among league leaders with 16 TDs in 25 red-zone trips, four short of total from all of last year. ... QB Mark Sanchez trails Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger in AFC with 94.7 passer rating since Oct. 9. He has seven TDs and two INTs in that span. ... RB LaDainian Tomlinson has 13,533 yards rushing, 129 behind Jerome Bettis for fifth place on NFL's career list. Tomlinson's 18,146 yards from scrimmage are 44 behind Barry Sanders for fifth in NFL history. ... After slow start, WR Plaxico Burress has nine catches for 104 yards and three TDs in last two games. ... RB Joe McKnight leads NFL with 40.2 kickoff return average. ... K Nick Folk set franchise record with 11 straight FGs to start season before missing 50-yarder vs. Bills.

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MINNESOTA (2-6) At GREEN BAY (8-0)

Monday, 8:30 p.m., ESPN

OPENING LINE - Packers by 13 1/2

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Minnesota 4-3-1; Green Bay 6-2

SERIES RECORD - Packers lead series 52-48-1

LAST MEETING - Packers beat Vikings 33-27, Oct. 23, 2011

LAST WEEK - Vikings had bye; Packers beat Chargers 45-38

VIKINGS OFFENSE - OVERALL (18), RUSH (4), PASS (29)

VIKINGS DEFENSE - OVERALL (20), RUSH (5), PASS (30)

PACKERS OFFENSE - OVERALL (4), RUSH (20), PASS (3)

PACKERS DEFENSE - OVERALL (30), RUSH (8), PASS (31)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Vikings rookie QB Christian Ponder won first NFL start in Week 8, completing 18 of 28 passes for 236 yards with one TD. He made first career start in Week 7 against Packers, throwing two TDs in loss. ... RB Adrian Peterson rushed for 175 yards and one TD in last meeting with Packers. Peterson has a TD rushing in six of his past seven games against Packers. ... Since joining NFL in 2007, Peterson leads all players with 6,580 yards rushing and 61 TDs rushing. ... WR-KR Percy Harvin aims for third Monday night game in row with TD. ... Packers have won 14 in row, including playoffs, longest streak in team history. ... QB Aaron Rodgers has passed for 2,619 yards and 24 TDs, first QB in NFL history with 2,600-plus yards and 24-plus TDs in first eight games of season. ... In eight meetings with Vikings, Rodgers has completed 69.1 percent of passes for 1,939 yards with 15 TDs vs. three INTs. Rodgers completed 24 of 30 passes (80 percent) for 335 yards and three TDs in win at Minnesota earlier this season. ... WR Greg Jennings has six TDs in past four meetings with Vikings. ... WR Jordy Nelson tied for NFL lead with four catches of 50-plus yards. ... CB Charles Woodson had two INTs in last meeting with Vikings.

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NFL Trends - Week 10

November 9, 2011

Thursday, Nov. 10 (8:20 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Raiders won and covered both meetings LY and have covered last 4 vs. SD since 2009. Oakland has also covered its last four on road. Raiders, based on team trends.



Sunday, Nov. 13 (1:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Bengals have won and covered their last five in 2011. Cincy also "under" 8-3-1 last 12 since late 2010. Marvin Lewis 8-1 last 9 as home dog. Bengals and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

Denver has covered last two and three of last four at Arrowhead. "Overs" 6-2 last 8 in series, and Broncos "over" 23-7 last 30 since late 2009. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

Jags "under" 7-1 in 2011. Road team had covered six straight in series prior to LY when home team covered both. Indy 2-7 vs. line TY, no covers last four. Jags and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

Chan has covered first four as dog TY. Dallas 2-7 last 9 as home chalk (2-3 for Jason Garrett). Cowboys "under" last 3 TY after "over" 16-4 previous 20. Bills "over" 6-2 last 8 since late 2010. Bills and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Houston "under" 6-3 TY for Wade Phillips. Bucs 2-2 vs. line at home TY but still just 5-17-1 last 23 vs. spread at Raymond James Stadium. Texans and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

Ugh! Carolina 5-2 vs. line last seven TY. Panthers also "over" 5-3 in 2011. Titans "over" 3-1-1 last five TY. Slight to "over," based on "totals" trends.

Sparano 0-3 vs. line at home TY, no covers last seven as host, 5-19 against number last 24 at Sun Life Stadium. Sparano "over" 13-6 last 19 at home as well. Skins no wins or covers last 4 TY and "under" 12-3 last 15 since mid 2010. Skins, based on extended Sparano home woes.

Falcons have covered 3 of last 4 meetings, split 1-1 LY. Saints 1-4 vs. line away TY, 2-8 last 10 against spread away. Saints "over" 7-3 last 10 away as well. "Over" 5-1 last six meetings. "Over" and slight to Falcons, based on "totals" and team trends.

Browns 1-7 vs. line TY, 1-11 last 12, 2-14 last 16 on board. Cleveland 0-5 as chalk since 2010. Rams "under" 9-4 last 13 since late LY. "Under" and Rams, based on "totals" and team trends.

Cards, 3-8 last 11 against number on road. Cards "over" 16-8-1 last 25 since late 2009. Eagles and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.




Sunday, Nov. 13 (4:05 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Pete Carroll still 8-4 vs. line at home since LY, also "over" 8-3 last 11 as host. Ravens "over" 6-2 last 8 away. "Over," based on "totals" trends.




Sunday, Nov. 13 (4:15 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Lions covered both meetings LY after Bears did same in 2009. Lions 3-0-1 vs. line away TY and 8-1-1 against points last 10 away. Lions "over" 6-0-1 last 7 on road. "Over" and Lions, based on "totals and team trends.

Harbaugh 7-0-1 vs. line TY, SF 8-0-1 last 9 on board since late 2010. 49ers 14-5-3 last 23 on board at Candlestick. Coughlin, however, 23-7 last 29 as dog. Niners also "over" 5-1 last 6 at home. "Over," based on "totals" trends.




Sunday, Nov. 13 (8:25 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

These two "over" all four since LY. Rex Ryan 2-0 SU and vs. line hosting Belichick. Patriots 8-3 against points last 11 away since losing early LY at Jets. "Over," based on "totals" trends.




Monday, Nov. 14 (8:35 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

"Overs" 5-1 last six in series. Pack 7-1 vs. points last 8 at Lambeau since mid 2010. Pack won and covered both meetings LY and is 11-3 vs. spread last 14 overall since late 2010. "Over" and Pack, based on "totals" and team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Raiders at Chargers

November 9, 2011

The AFC West race is currently the tightest one in football, not necessarily the best. Oakland, San Diego, and Kansas City each own 4-4 record atop the division, while Denver sits one game back at 3-3. The Chiefs and Broncos hook up on Sunday from Arrowhead Stadium, while the Raiders and Chargers get the Week 10 card going on Thursday night in Southern California.

These two old AFL rivals are each riding multiple-game losing skids, but the air has been deflated from Oakland’s balloon over the last two weeks. Since the Raiders acquired Carson Palmer from the Bengals, Oakland has been outscored 66-24 in home defeats to Kansas City and Denver. The Chiefs pitched the shutout at the Black Hole in Week 7, as Kansas City intercepted six passes, while taking two back for touchdowns.

Following the bye week, Oakland squandered a 10-point lead in a 38-24 home defeat to a Denver squad that had lost by 35 points the week prior. Making things worse for the Silver and Black, the Broncos rushed for 298 yards, including 117 from the nimble-footed Tim Tebow. The Raiders had an opportunity to pull off the season sweep of the Broncos, but the loss drops Oakland to 1-2 inside the division.

The Chargers looked to be in cruise control atop the AFC West at 4-1, but three consecutive losses to the Jets, Chiefs, and Packers has forced a three-way tie in the division. San Diego returned home after last Monday’s overtime loss at Kansas City to battle the unbeaten Packers. Green Bay traveled west and didn’t skip a beat in a 45-38 victory at Qualcomm Stadium to improve to 8-0, while San Diego failed to cover for the third straight week.

Both these offenses rank in the top-10 of the league, while the Raiders own the third-best rushing attack (151.9 yards/game). Oakland ran for just 100 yards in the 14-point loss to Denver, while missing leading rusher Darren McFadden to a foot injury. In fact, the former Arkansas standout has been hurt for several weeks as McFadden carried the ball just twice in the Kansas City blowout. McFadden is listed as ‘out’ with the short week, giving Michael Bush another opportunity to start at running back.

The Raiders swept the season series from the Chargers in 2010 by taking each game as a substantial underdog. Oakland won in the Black Hole last October, 35-27 as seven-point ‘dogs, in spite of getting outgained by San Diego, 506-279. The Raiders benefited from a safety, a blocked punt returned for a touchdown, and a fumble return for a score to seal the victory. Also, Oakland was able to win that game without the services of an injured McFadden in the backfield, while snapping a 13-game skid to San Diego that dated back to 2003.

In the second meeting last season in Southern California, the Raiders knocked out the Chargers with a swift kick to the face in a 28-13 rout as 12 ½-point ‘dogs. Oakland jumped out to a 14-0 lead after one quarter, thanks to a touchdown on the ground and through the air from Jason Campbell. San Diego was limited to 21 yards on the ground, as Ryan Mathews missed the game with a high ankle sprain. The loss snapped a four-game winning streak for the Bolts, while turning into a costly defeat as San Diego fell one game short for the AFC West title.

There is one strong trend that favors the Raiders in this game as Oakland owns a 14-3 ATS mark since 2008 as an underdog off a loss. The Silver and Black cashed in both instances this season against the Jets and Texans, as Oakland won each game outright. This trend has been an extremely strong on the road, with the Raiders going 8-2 ATS, including a 6-0 ATS mark inside the division.

The Chargers are listed as seven-point home favorites, while the total is set at 48. The game will be televised nationally on the NFL Network with kickoff set for 8:20 PM EST.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
11/07/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
11/06/11 16-*10-*0 61.54% +*2500 Detail
Totals 16-*12-*0 57.14% +1400

Thursday, November 10

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Oakland - 8:20 PM ET San Diego -7 500

San Diego - Over 47.5 500