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**StarDust Bum** · 11-08-2011, 09:13 PM

Dolphins Home Favorites Over Washington Redskins

Miami is a 3½-point favorite at home this Sunday against the Redskins.
There was a time when a Redskins-Dolphins matchup stopped the American sports public in its tracks.

By comparison, this weekend’s renewal in Sun Life Stadium might not even slow traffic on the nearby Florida’s Turnpike.

Washington (3-5 straight up and against the spread) and Miami (1-7 SU, 3-5 ATS) recall some long-ago hostilities on Sunday when clashing on the Dade and Broward County lines. The Don Best odds screen notes that the Dolphins have been posted as early 3½-point favorites at the majority of Las Vegas sports books, with the total solidly on 37½. Kickoff will be at 1:00 p.m. (ET), with FOX TV providing the coverage.

Mention of the Redskins and Dolphins, however, will always recall their memorable confrontation on January 14, 1973, in Super Bowl VII at the Los Angeles Coliseum. It was the final installment of the Dolphins’ perfect 17-0 season, yet they were surprisingly listed a 2-point underdogs for the contest.

Super Bowl VII was noteworthy in another aspect in that the NFL decided to lift the local TV blackout for the game less than a week before the contest was to kick off. Remember, games were blacked out in those days within a 75-mile radius of the host city. Major market Los Angeles, which was blacked out of the first Super Bowl six years earlier (as had Miami and New Orleans in subsequent title games), was expected to follow suit for Super Bowl VII until the league and NBC decided to lift the blackout.

It’s hard for modern-day fans to believe how much of a hot potato the TV blackout rule was. Even the U.S. Congress, citing no decrease in the live gate for Super Bowl VII, would eventually get involved in the debate, helping to force the NFL to relax its home-city blackout rule. Subsequent to Redskins-Dolphins, the NFL modified its stance on home-city TV blackout rules, imposing a 72-hour cutoff; if a game had been sold out by that point, it could be televised locally.

Thus, the seeds for that TV policy, still in place today, were planted at the Washington-Miami Super Bowl VII. A little-known extra info nugget about the history of matshups between the 'Skins and Fins.

We have always believed that the actual Super Bowl VII contest has been overrated by gridiron historians, however. The fact it was the final installment of the "perfect" season for Don Shula’s Dolphins probably has something to do with the contest rating more highly in all-time SB rankings than it probably deserves.

In truth, Super Bowl VII was mostly a bore, with Miami taking charge in the first half as it moved easily to a 14-0 lead. The only bit of drama came deep in the fourth quarter, when the Dolphins’ Garo Yepremian was attempting a 42-yard field goal with just over two minutes to play that would have given Miami an insurmountable 17-0 lead.

But in one of the more-famous clips from future NFL Football Follies, the kick was blocked and bounced to Yepremian, who first tried unsuccessfully to pass the ball, then instead knocked the ball into the air, from where Washington DB Mike Bass plucked it and ran 49 yards for Redskins’ only score of the day.

George Allen’s Washington, now down only 14-7, got the ball back in the last minute, but like most of the afternoon, could do nothing against Shula’s "No-Name" defense. In the end, the 14-7 scoreline could have flattered the 'Skins. For the day, both teams combined to gain fewer than 500 yards of offense, and Washington never came close to scoring until Bass’ late capitalization on the Yepremian flub-up.

We doubt anyone is going to recall this week’s Redskins-Dolphins renewal 39 hours, much less 39 years, after its conclusion. Although Washington enters the game with three wins compared to Miami’s one, an argument can be made that the 'Skins might be playing worse at the moment than any team in the NFL.

Blame injuries partly for the current malaise in D.C. that has seen Mike Shanahan’s team lose and fail to cover its last four games. Moreover, the 'Skins are not coming close lately, losing by 13 ppg in the slump and scoring only 11 ppg that span. Two of the four TDs scored in the skid have also come in the very late stages of the games against the Eagles and 49ers.

The slump has coincided with a succession of key injuries, in particular to top rusher Tim Hightower and top receiver Santana Moss, who remain sidelined. Not to mention ongoing struggles at QB, which the D.C. press corps had predicted from the summer, when Shanahan opted to let Donovan McNabb walk and instead entrust the unconvincing Rex Grossman and John Beck with those duties.

NFC East insiders suggested a gross miscalculation was committed by Shanahan, who is now paying for a gamble gone bad. Grossman eventually imploded in the October 16 loss to the Eagles, tossing four picks. Beck has not been much better since assuming the starting role the following week against the Panthers, an eventual 33-20 Washington loss.

Indeed, Beck, who began his NFL career with the Dolphins, has not started for a winning team since his college days at BYU.

Fortunately for the Redskins, they are facing what appears to be a beatable foe in the host Dolphins, who scored their first win of the season last week at Kansas City. Although Miami had been coming close to success in preceding weeks, losing in overtime vs. Denver and in the last minutes against the Giants.

Keying the mild uptick has been improvement in the offense, in particular RB Reggie Bush. Perhaps motivated by the knowledge that former flame Kim Kardashian is back on the singles market, Bush has produced his best games in a Miami uniform the past two weeks, rushing for a combined 195 yards vs. Denver and the Giants. Dolphins QB Matt Moore, who replaced injured Chad Henne last month, is also off of his best game, passing for 244 yards and three TDs at Arrowhead.

Before getting carried away, however, Dolphins backers must acknowledge recent underachievement by their favorite team at Sun Life Stadium, where the frontrunning South Florida fans offer only lukewarm support in the best of times, and various transplants always provide more throaty support for the visitors than is heard at other NFL stadiums. Miami has dropped its last seven spread decisions at home and 19 of 24 as host since early in the 2008 season, part of a curious trend under HC Tony Sparano in which the Dolphins have provided mostly-good spread value on the road, and poor value at home.

As for Sparano, his long-term job prospects hardly improved with the win at Kansas City. Indeed, even in success he seems to have angered Dolphins fans who are hoping their team finishes poorly enough to have a chance at the top pick in next April’s NFL Draft, almost assuredly to be Stanford QB Andrew Luck.

Poor Sparano can’t even win for winning these days.

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**StarDust Bum** · 11-08-2011, 09:15 PM

AFC West Race Wide Open At Halfway Mark

One team got off the schneid with its first win of the season, another squad remained undefeated and one of the eight divisions ended the first half of the season jammed tight with just a game separating all four squads. When the dust settled at NFL betting windows, road underdogs had won seven of 11 games outright and the 'under' prevailed by an 8-5-1 margin.

Yeah, it's safe to say Week 9 had a little bit of everything for both the fan and the bettor, and it set the standings up for a big second half to the campaign.

The wild, wild west divisions

No doubt one of the biggest stories to come out of the week was turned in by the Miami Dolphins who picked up their first win after seven losses to begin the season. The Dolphins had been close on several other occasions, so seeing them win wasn't exactly a shock. But the manner in which Miami got dubya No. 1 was surprising, 31-3 on the road over the Kansas City Chiefs (-5).

Kansas City's defeat started an 0-3 run for the teams that went into Week 9 tied for the AFC West lead. San Diego dropped its third straight, just falling short of the Green Bay Packers (-5½) in a 45-38 thriller at Qualcomm Stadium. Green Bay's defense returned two early interceptions for touchdowns and Aaron Rodgers had another fine day to help the Packers to an 8-0 mark.

At just about the same time, the Denver Broncos were gashing their way through the Raiders for a 38-24 victory in Oakland. Denver ran for just shy of 300 yards, Willis McGahee accounting for 163 with Tim Tebow adding 118 on 12 totes.

It segues into a huge divisional week for the AFC West where the Chiefs, Raiders and Chargers are all 4-4 and Denver is running 3-5. The Raiders and Chargers square off in Thursday's prime-time broadcast, with San Diego listed at -6½ at home. The Broncos will visit the Chiefs on Sunday, Kansas City laying three points after opening -4.

There's not even a hint of a race going on in the NFC West where the San Francisco 49ers are 7-1 and rule the roost with a five-game lead. The Niners (-4) won their sixth straight with a 19-11 decision at the Washington Redskins that left Frisco a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS on the road. Jim Harbaugh's crew will now host what could be a playoff preview against the New York Giants. San Fran is a 3½-point favorite to extend the streak to seven straight wins.

Meanwhile back east...

Speaking of the Giants, Eli Manning directed New York to Week 9's biggest upset in a 24-20 victory at the New England Patriots (-9). A scoreless first half turned into a back-&-forth affair during the final 30 minutes, and the triumph helped the G-Men (6-2) maintain a two-game cushion over the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East.

New England's defeat threw the AFC East into a three-way tie when coupled with the New York Jets (+3) taking care of business at the Buffalo Bills, 27-11. All three are 5-3 on the season and the deadlock will be at least partially broken this Sunday night at MetLife Stadium when Bill Belichick and Rex Ryan pit their teams against one another. The game opened as a pick before New York moved to 1-1½ point chalk. The matchup offers the Jets a shot at some revenge after losing 30-21 at Foxboro in Week 5.

Buffalo will travel to Dallas where the Cowboys are 5½-point favorites in yet another key game on the Week 10 board. Obviously crucial to both clubs' playoff hopes, the matchup begins a tough three-game road trip for the Bills who follow this up with visits to the Dolphins and Jets.

Northern Lights shine bright on Green Bay

Halfway through a perfect season, there's a buzz around the league about the Packers' chances to go through the schedule unscathed. One thing in Green Bay's favor is that schedule which includes just three more road dates (at Lions, Giants and Chiefs) over the final eight games.

There's also a home date with the Lions on the final Sunday of the slate, and the two games with Detroit will go a long way to determining the NFC North standings. The Lions are presently two games behind the Pack with Chicago three back following Monday night's 30-24 upset at Philadelphia (-8).

Detroit will be out to sweep the Bears this week when the Lions make a trek to the Windy City as 1-point 'dogs. Green Bay will host the Minnesota Vikings in the next edition of Monday Night Football with the Packers 13½-point favorites, Week 10's largest spread.

The AFC North is a three-team quagmire with Cincinnati and Baltimore both 6-2 and Pittsburgh a half-game back at 6-3. One of the top surprises this season, the Bengals have yet to face either the Ravens or Steelers, something that will change Sunday when they host Pittsburgh who is favored by a field goal. Cincinnati will then travel to Baltimore in Week 11 before visiting the Steel City in Week 13.

Houston, New Orleans sittin' pretty down south

All three of the New Orleans Saints' defeats have come on the road, making this Sunday's battle in Atlanta crucial to the NFC South race. New Orleans (6-3) holds a slim half-game lead over the Falcons (5-3) who have turned their rough start around with three straight wins and covers.

The clubs took turns beating each other as road underdogs last season, and New Orleans is a slight 1-point favorite at the Georgia Dome for this one.

Houston (6-3) has a 1.5-game lead in the AFC South over Tennessee, and the Texans will begin a two-game stretch in Florida that is interrupted by their bye in Week 11. First up is a trek as 3-point chalk to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It's just the third meeting between the two clubs, and first since 2007.

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**StarDust Bum** · 11-08-2011, 09:17 PM

Tennessee Titans Take On Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers

The Titans have won just one of their last eight contests on the road.
The Tennessee Titans will try to keep their dwindling playoff hopes alive this Sunday with a win on the road against Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers.

Coming off of their bye week, the Panthers are currently favored by 3 ½ over the Titans on the Don Best odds screen. Sunday’s matchup is set to start at 1:00 p.m. (ET) and will be televised nationally on CBS.

Tennessee (4-4) seemed to be on the way to a 5-3 straight up record up, leading the Bengals 17-7 at the half last Sunday. But the Titans were outscored 17-0 in the second half to give Cincinnati the 24-17 victory.

The loss was Tennessee’s third in their last four games both SU and ATS, and put the Titans two wins behind the Houston Texans (6-3) for first place in the AFC South.

Chris Johnson’s nightmare season continued Sunday as the struggling tailback managed only 64 yards without a touchdown. With Matt Hasselbeck enjoying a career resurgence with the Titans, this team would likely be a legitimate playoff contender if Johnson were playing to his potential; but he hasn’t even come close.

Tennessee currently ranks dead last in the league in rushing with just 70 rushing yards per game.

Carolina (2-6) has played better than its record would indicate with five of the six losses coming by a touchdown or less. The Panthers are 4-1 ATS at home this season, including a 2-1 record both SU and ATS as a home favorite.

Newton has taken no time at all blossoming into a star at the quarterback position, leading the Panthers to the league’s 5th-best passing attack (285.5 yards per game) and 8th-best rushing attack (129.6 yards per game). Carolina’s biggest weakness this season has been the run defense, which ranks 27th in the league surrendering 133.3 yards per game.

Tennessee’s league-worst rushing attack against Carolina’s weak rushing defense is one of the biggest keys to Sunday’s game. If Johnson or backup Javon Ringer can get something going on the ground for the Titans to keep Newton off the field, Tennessee will have a great shot at winning. If Carolina is able to control the tempo, the Panthers should be able to take care of business. Tennessee is 2-0 SU and ATS in games that they have rushed for 90 or more yards.

Dating back to last year, Tennessee is just 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS on the road. Carolina is just 4-9 SU in the last 13 games at home, though the Panthers have fared better under Newton at 2-3 SU this season.

The total for Sunday’s game is currently set at 46. Tennessee has leaned slightly towards the ‘over’ on the road this season at 2-1 while Carolina has leaned slightly towards the ‘over’ at home at 3-2.

Current weather forecasts for Charlotte this Sunday include a very slight chance of rain under partly cloudy skies with the thermometer climbing into the mid-60s.

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**StarDust Bum** · 11-08-2011, 09:19 PM

St. Louis Rams Underdogs At Cleveland Browns

The Browns and Rams have each covered the spread just one time in 2011.
The NFL’s two worst teams against the spread, the Cleveland Browns and St. Louis Rams, meet Sunday afternoon in Ohio with both trying to salvage their seasons.

Cleveland is a 1-3 point favorite in the Week 10 NFL odds at Don Best. The total is one of the lowest on the board at 37 ½-points and FOX will have the intra-conference battle at 1:00 p.m. (ET) from Cleveland Browns Stadium.

The Rams are 1-7 straight up and ATS. The former is the poorest mark in the NFC and the latter the worst in the entire NFL. It’s a major step back for coach Steve Spagnuolo, who was thought to have an up-and-coming team after going 7-9 SU last year and almost winning the NFC West.

Spagnuolo is reportedly on the hot seat after St. Louis found a new way to lose yesterday, 19-13 at Arizona as 2 ½-point ‘dogs. Patrick Peterson ran back a punt for 99 yards in overtime and the Cardinals won despite starting John Skelton at quarterback and losing the total yardage battle (383-262). They also blocked a 42-yard field goal at the end of regulation to force OT.

St. Louis quarterback Sam Bradford (ankle injury) returned after missing two games, one of them the only win of the season (31-21 home upset of New Orleans). Bradford looked decent against Arizona (23-of-36, 255 yards), but the team couldn’t get into the end zone, getting three field goals and two safeties.

The 32 combined points scored last game didn’t come close to the 41-point total even with the extra session. The ‘under’ is 4-1 in the Rams’ last five games and they’re 31st in the league in scoring (12.5 PPG).

The Rams now have another road game where they’re 0-4 SU and ATS this season. The other three road tilts have been tough foes in Dallas, Green Bay and the NY Giants, with the average score 29-9.

St. Louis’ offense can score on Cleveland. Running back Steven Jackson has averaged 144.5 YPG the last two weeks and the Cleveland run ‘D’ ranks 30th (144 YPG). Bradford should be healthier in his second game back and continue to build chemistry with new receiver Brandon Lloyd (80 yards last week).

The development of Lloyd is even more important with Greg Salas (fibula) out for the year. Receiver Danario Alexander (hamstring) and tight end Lance Kendricks (foot) are questionable.

The Browns (3-5 SU, 1-5-2 ATS) have just one outright cover this year as the three wins have come against bottom dwellers Miami, Indianapolis and Seattle (a combined 3-22 SU).

Cleveland’s last two games have been tough road losses, 20-10 at San Francisco as 9-point underdogs and 30-12 at Houston as 10 ½-point ‘dogs. The Texans game yesterday was a laugher by halftime (24-3) and Cleveland was run roughshod over with 261 rushing yards allowed.

First-year coach Pat Shurmur has an offensive background, so it had to make him sick to see his guys generate just 172 total yards. The team was missing running backs Peyton Hillis (hamstring) and Montario Hardesty (calf), leaving the main duties to Chris Ogbonnaya. He will likely be the featured back again this week.

Look for St. Louis to blitz often on Sunday with little respect for the run game.

Cleveland’s scoring offense (14.9 PPG) is just slightly above St. Louis. Quarterback Colt McCoy isn’t looking look like the long term solution, but the running game isn’t helping (82.1 YPG, ranked 31st) and there aren’t exactly a lot of receiving weapons with tight end Ben Watson the leader (303 yards).

Defensively, the Browns have the top-ranked pass defense in the league (165.3 YPG). However, part of the reason is poor competition and teams also aren’t forced to pass due to the running success.

Cleveland is 2-2 SU and 0-2-2 ATS at home. The Browns' only win the last five games came there on October 23, 6-3 over Seattle as 3-point favorites. The Seahawks offense was completely inept that day (137 total yards) behind backup quarterback Charlie Whitehurst.

These teams last met in 2007 with Cleveland winning 27-20 as 3-point road favorites. St. Louis last played in Cleveland in 2003, winning 26-20 as 5 ½-point favorites. Tim Couch and Kelly Holcomb were the Browns quarterbacks, a duo not much worse than the current situation.

Early weather projections in the ‘Dawg Pound’ are cloudy but reaching the mid 50s.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-08-2011, 09:23 PM

Inside the Numbers - Week 10

November 8, 2011

Thursday, Nov. 10 (8:20 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

OAK: 14-3 ATS L17 as underdog off loss
OAK: 4-1 'under' L5 overall
SDG: 7-2 ATS L9 November games
SDG: 7-1 'under' L8 home

Sunday, Nov. 13 (1:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

PIT: 5-3 ATS L8 away favorites
PIT: 7-2 ATS L9 vs CIN
CIN: 10-3 ATS L13 home underdogs
CIN: 9-5 ATS L14 vs division

DEN: 4-6 ATS L10 away underdogs
DEN: 5-3 ATS L8 vs KC
KC: 2-5 ATS L7 home favorites
KC: 6-0 'under' L6 vs division

JAX: 1-5 ATS L6 away
JAX: 2-4 ATS L6 off bye
IND: 0-5 ATS L5 overall
IND: 2-7 ATS L9 home

BUF: 1-4-1 ATS L6 away vs NFC
BUF: 8-2 'over' L10 away
DAL: 2-8 ATS L10 home favorite
DAL: 2-6 ATS L8 home vs AFC

HOU: 0-5-1 ATS L6 vs NFC
HOU: 3-6-1 ATS L10 off home win
TAM: 2-9 ATS L11 home underdog
TAM: 2-7 ATS L9 off division game

TEN: 7-2-1 ATS L10 vs NFC
TEN: 5-1 ATS L6 off home loss
CAR: 5-1 ATS L6 home
CAR: 3-6 ATS L9 vs AFC

WSH: 5-2 'under' L7 away vs AFC
WSH: 8-4-1 ATS L13 away underdog
MIA: 3-12 ATS L15 home favorite
MIA: 7-0 'under' L7 overall

NOR: 5-10 ATS L15 vs division
NOR: 4-8 ATS L12 off home win
ATL: 7-3 ATS L10 vs division
ATL: 13-7 ATS L20 home

STL: 0-6 ATS L6 away
STL: 4-2 ATS L6 vs AFC
CLE: 2-8-2 ATS L12 home favorite
CLE: 1-5-1 ATS L6 home vs NFC

ARZ: 1-7 ATS L8 off win
ARZ: 3-7 ATS L10 away underdog
PHI: 1-5 ATS L6 home favorite
PHI: 4-7 ATS L11 off loss

Sunday, Nov. 13 (4:05 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

BAL: 5-1 'over' L6 away vs NFC
BAL: 3-5 ATS L8 off division win
SEA: 9-4 ATS L13 home
SEA: 0-5-1 ATS L6 vs AFC

Sunday, Nov. 13 (4:15 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

DET: 6-2 ATS L8 vs division
DET: 6-1 'under' L7 off bye
CHI: 12-4 'over' L16 overall
CHI: 7-2 ATS L9 off away win

NYG: 9-1 ATS L10 away off away game
NYG: 2-5 ATS L7 off away win
SFO: 5-0-1 ATS L6 home
SFO: 6-1-1 ATS L8 off away win

Sunday, Nov. 13 (8:25 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers
NEP: 2-5 ATS L7 off loss
NEP: 6-2 ATS L8 vs division
NYJ: 9-2 ATS L11 off division game
NYJ: 8-3 ATS L11 vs division

Monday, Nov. 14 (8:35 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

MIN: 4-1-1 ATS L6 off bye
MIN: 1-6 ATS L7 off win
GBP: 7-1 ATS L8 home
GBP: 8-1 ATS L9 off away win

**StarDust Bum** · 11-08-2011, 09:27 PM

Chargers, Raiders Thursday Night NFL Betting Action

First place in the wide open AFC West is on the line as the San Diego Chargers host the Oakland Raiders this Thursday night.

The NFL Network will broadcast the weeknight affair with the kickoff at 8:20 p.m. (ET). San Diego is currently a 6 ½-point favorite on the Don Best odds screen.

The AFC West was a three-way tie entering Week 9 and remains that way after Oakland lost to Denver, San Diego fell to Green Bay and Kansas City was upset by Miami, leaving the Chargers, Raiders and Chiefs all at 4-4, with the Denver Broncos just one game behind at 3-5. Every division rivalry game will be magnified down the stretch with the AFC West completely up for grabs.

San Diego (4-4) had an entertaining shootout against Green Bay, but still came up just short in the 45-38 loss at home. The loss was the Chargers’ third straight both straight up and against the spread, dropping the Bolts to 2-6 ATS on the season.

Philip Rivers’ performance Sunday (four touchdowns and three interceptions) was a fitting representation of San Diego’s offense this season. The Chargers have the fourth best passing attack in the NFL averaging 294.9 passing yards per game, but Rivers also leads the NFL in interceptions with 14.

San Diego, and Rivers specifically, will need to do a better job protecting the ball down the stretch.

Oakland (4-4) looked to be on the way to a win over Denver last week, but everything unraveled in the second half. In the end, the Raiders lost 38-24 and the run defense gave up a humiliating 299 yards on the ground.

Carson Palmer received mixed reviews in his first start as a Raider, passing for 332 yards and three touchdowns but also throwing three interceptions. Oakland is clearly missing Darren McFadden (out with a foot injury) on offense after losing a second straight game without him.

The former Arkansas standout is listed as questionable for Thursday.

The Raiders swept the season series from the Chargers in 2010, and have covered the last four meetings against the Bolts. San Diego had won 13 straight games against Oakland before last year's defeats and was 11-3 ATS against them in the previous 14 games. Has Oakland turned the tide, or will San Diego regain control of the series this year?

The total has gone ‘under’ in seven of San Diego’s last eight games at home overall and in five of the last six home games when hosting the Raiders. Both teams are 4-4 'over/under' this campaign. The total hasn’t been released yet as bookmakers are likely waiting for an update on the status of McFadden.

A cloudy evening is in the forecast for San Diego on Thursday when the thermometer is expected to be in the low-to-mid 60s for kickoff.

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**StarDust Bum** · 11-08-2011, 09:30 PM

Week 10 Preview: Raiders at Chargers

OAKLAND RAIDERS (4-4)

at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (4-4)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: San Diego -7, Total: 49

The first Thursday night game of the 2011 NFL season pairs two struggling franchises, each with injured No. 1 running backs, when Raiders match up with the Chargers.

Oakland has dropped two straight games without RB Darren McFadden (foot), who is not expected to be ready when Thursday rolls around. San Diego has lost three straight games, including the last one without RB Ryan Mathews (groin). He is questionable to play on Thursday. After losing 13 straight meetings, the Raiders stunned San Diego twice last year and have a chance to upset an underachieving Chargers team again. San Diego had recovered from a slow start only to see its momentum defused at home in a 28-13 loss to Oakland last year. In that game, the Raiders rushed for 251 yards on 52 carries, controlling the clock for 38:39 and limiting the Chargers to 286 yards of offense. Then-QB Jason Campbell threw 16 passes in that game, so the Raiders don’t necessarily need a big night from Carson Palmer, who has been shaky so far. Even without McFadden on the field, the pick here is for OAKLAND, which is 7-0 ATS in division road games since 2009, to cover the spread.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also supports the Raiders:

Play Against - Home favorites (SAN DIEGO) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.5 YPC) against a poor rushing defense (>=4.5 YPC) after 8+ games. (43-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.9%, +25.4 units. Rating = 3*).

In six starts under Campbell, Oakland turned the ball over just seven times. But new QB Carson Palmer has already thrown six interceptions in two games. Palmer has completed fewer than 50% of his passes (27-of-56), but he showed some encouraging signs in last week’s loss to Denver, throwing for 332 yards on 9.5 YPA and three touchdowns. WR Jacoby Ford caught five of his six targets for 105 yards and a TD, and rookie Denarius Moore had a dozen balls thrown in his direction, but he only caught four of those. Without McFadden, Michael Bush will once again receive the bulk of the rushing workload. Bush has rushed for 195 yards on 36 carries (5.4 YPC) in the past two weeks, and has also chipped in 45 receiving yards and touchdown.

Oakland’s defense was shredded by Denver last week to the tune of 299 rushing yards on 7.9 YPC. The Raiders now rank fourth-worst in the league with 140 rushing YPG allowed. However, the passing defense held strong during the recent three-game homestand, limiting opposing QBs to a 47% completion rate and 477 passing yards (159 YPG).

San Diego QB Philip Rivers continues to struggle through a miserable season, tallying a league-high 14 interceptions. Rivers is hoping he can change his fortunes against a Raiders team he has beaten eight out of 10 times in his career. Despite the large volume of picks, Rivers ranks fourth in the NFL with 309 passing yards per game. The injury bug has bitten San Diego all season and starting WR Malcom Floyd could miss his second straight game with a hip injury. This comes at an inopportune time considering Floyd caught 13 passes for 285 yards in the two games against Oakland last year. Fellow WR Vincent Jackson has been bothered by a leg injury, but he is coming off his best game of the year, catching seven passes for 141 yards and 3 TD in the loss to Green Bay. The Chargers have not done a good job rushing the football during their losing skid, gaining just 283 yards on 3.9 YPC. They rushed for just 112 yards (3.3 YPC) in the two losses to Oakland last year, showing that an effective ground game will go a long way towards winning.

San Diego’s defense continues to limit opposing air attacks, ranking fourth in the NFL with 192 passing YPG allowed. The Chargers are a pedestrian 18th in rushing defense, giving up 120 YPG.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-08-2011, 09:34 PM

DON BEST LINEMAKERS POLL - NFL Power Rankings

RANK TEAM RATING LAST

1 Green Bay Packers 101.1 1

2 New England Patriots 98.0 2

3 Baltimore Ravens 97.8 3

T-4 New Orleans Saints 97.3 5

T-4 Pittsburgh Steelers 97.3 4

T-6 New York Jets 96.0 T-6

T-6 Houston Texans 96.0
T-6

8 New York Giants 95.4 12

9 Philadelphia Eagles 94.9 8

10 Detroit Lions 94.6 11

11 San Diego Chargers 94.4 10

T-12 Dallas Cowboys 93.8 T-14

T-12 Buffalo Bills 93.8 9

14 San Francisco 49ers 93.6 16

15 Chicago Bears 93.5 13

16 Atlanta Falcons 93.3 T-14

17 Cincinnati Bengals 92.1 T-17

18 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 91.3 T-17

19 Oakland Raiders 90.9 19

20 Kansas City Chiefs 89.8 20

21 Tennessee Titans 89.5 21

T-22 Washington Redskins 89.3 22

T-22 Carolina Panthers 89.3 23

24 Minnesota Vikings 89.0 24

25 Arizona Cardinals 87.9 25

26 Denver Broncos 87.5 T-28

27 Cleveland Browns 87.0 26

28 Miami Dolphins 86.9 30

29 Jacksonville Jaguars 86.4 T-28

30 St. Louis Rams 86.1 27

31 Seattle Seahawks 86.0 31

32 Indianapolis Colts 84.4 32

**StarDust Bum** · 11-08-2011, 11:59 PM

NFL TEAM TECH TRENDS TO WATCH!

Following is a quick team-by-team look at recent NFL pointspread and "totals" trends through last weekend.

Arizona...Cards have covered a couple of times on the road this season, but their extended spread marks as a visitor are still subpar (4-11 last 15 away since late 2009). Arizona has been a reliable "over" play for the past six years, posting a 66-42 "over" mark since 2005 (16-9-1 last 26 since late 2009). Atlanta...Falcons stirring in recent weeks with three straight covers. Despite dropping first three vs. line on road this season, Atlanta still 11-5 vs. spread as visitor since middle of 2009 campaign. Baltimore...Although Ravens are unbeaten straight up in four outings as host in 2011 (3-1 vs. line in those games), Baltimore has been decidedly average against the number at home since early in the 2009 campaign, covering only half of its 18 games on the board as host. They've fared well, however, in recent games vs. AFC North rival Cleveland (Ravens 6-0 SU, 5-0-1 vs. line against Brownies since 2008; next meeting Dec. 4). Buffalo...Bills only 4-7 vs. spread in Orchard Park since HC Chan Gailey arrived last season. They have covered 7 of their last 9 as a road dog since early last season, however.

Carolina...Panthers showing a bit more life since rookie QB Cam Newton arrived on scene, now "over" 5-3 halfway thru 2011 campaign after going "under" 15-7-1 previous 23 at the end of the John Fox regime. "Cam-o-lina" has also covered 4 of its last five as a dog this season and is 6-1 vs. the spread its last seven vs. Saints (next meeting Jan. 1). Chicago...Bears trending "under" (28-19-2 last 49 prior to Eagles Monday) since midway in 2008 campaign, especially on road (8-1-2 "under" last 11 away from Solider Field before Philly). Cincinnati...Bengals a revelation in first half of 2011 and have won and covered their last five, also 7-1 vs. spread their first eight in 2011. But Cincy still just 2-10 as Paul Brown Stadium chalk since 2009 (1-1 in 2011). Cincy also "over" 4-0-1 away this season. Cleveland...Browns on an extended pointspread funk, just 2-14 vs. line last sixteen since mid 2010.

Dallas...Cowboys are 6-1 as a dog since HC Jason Garrett relieved Wade Phillips of duties last season. But they're also 2-8 as a home favorite since 2010 (2-4 in role for Garrett). Dallas "under" last 4 in 2011 after "over" 16-4 in 20 games prior. Denver...Broncos are "over" 23-7 since late in the 2009 campaign. Denver also hasn't covered at home in four tries this season and is just 3-11 vs. spread its last 14 as host. Detroit...Lions 18-5-1 vs. spread since beginning of 2010 campaign, and 8-1-1 last ten away fro Ford Field. They're also "over" 6-0-1 their last seven on road. Green Bay...Packers 14-0 SU and 11-3 vs. spread last 14 since late 2010, as well as 8-2 vs. spread mark last ten away from home.

Houston...Texans "under" 6-3 this season since arrival of d.c. Wade Phillips (and two of those "overs" were very narrowly so). Houston also 5-1 vs. spread last six at Reliant Stadium, although they're just 3-7 vs. the number their last ten away (2-2 in 2011). Indianapolis...Sagging Colts 0-9 SU and 2-7 vs. line this season minus Peyton Manning. Who said Indy was a one-man team? Jacksonville...Low-scoring Jags "under" 7-1 this season after "over" 12-5 previous 17 games. Kansas City...Chiefs' recent 5-game cover streak ended last week by Miami. KC also "under" 7-2-1 last 10 at Arrowhead.

Miami...Dolphins continue "inside-out" spread form under HC Tony Sparano, now 20-8 vs. spread last 28 away since early 2008, with no covers last seven or 19 of last 24 at Sun Life Stadium. Dolphins also "over" 13-6 last 19 at home, while "under" last five and 11 of last 13 away. Minnesota...Vikings "over" 7-2 last nine as host. New England...Patriots were "over" 20-4 in 24-game stretch until mid-October when they began current three-game "under" run. New Orleans...Saints have been formful in 2011, covering all four at Superdome and dropping four of five vs. line on road. New Orleans just 2-8 vs. number last 10 away from Superdome. Note Saints have bounced back with covers after first three SU losses in 2011.

NY Giants...Tom Coughlin is 23-7 vs. number his last 30 as an underdog dating to early 2006. NY Jets...Rex Ryan's bunch surprisingly "over" 23-9 its last 32 games since late in the 2009 campaign. Jets on mild uptick at moment with thee straight wins and covers after last week's win over Bills. Oakland...Raiders have covered first three tries as a road underdog this season and are 7-3 vs. line their last ten in role. Oakland also 7-2 SU and vs. line last nine vs. AFC West foes since 2010 (though no covers last two TY after Denver loss). Philadelphia...Andy Reid just 4-7 his last 11 as Linc chalk since late in 2009 campaign. Birds have also just covered 5 of their last 13 at home entering last Monday's game vs. Bears. File this away for next year, but Reid also now 13-0 SU after bye weeks since taking assuming Philly job in 1999. Eagles also "under" 6-2 last eight at home.

Pittsburgh...Steelers 10-5 vs. spread at Heinz Field since 2010. Once-pronounced "over" trend at home has flattened lately (now 9-7 "under" last 16 as host). Steelers also 6-0 vs. number off a SU loss since last season. San Diego...Chargers 3-8 their last 11 as road chalk since late in the 2009 season, with two of those covers against outmanned Denver. San Francisco...Maybe the NFL's top storyline of 2011, with 49ers 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 vs. spread for first-year HC Jim Harbaugh. San Francisco is also 14-5-3 vs. spread at Candlestick Park since midway in the 2008 season (post-Mike Nolan). Seattle...Pete Carroll has quietly covered 5 of his last 6 in 2011. Seahawks also 8-4 vs. spread at newly-renamed Century Link Field since Carroll arrived in 2010, and "over" 8-3 last 11 as host.

St. Louis...Rams recently broke a 7-game spread losing streak that extended to the end of the 2010 season. Rams also "under" 5-0-1 last six away and "under" 9-4 last 13 overall. Tampa Bay...Bucs have covered 2 of first 4 at home this season, but please note 5-17-1 mark vs. line last 23 at Raymond James Stadium since late in the 2008 campaign. Tampa Bay also no covers last three away this season after covering 10 of its previous 11 on road. Tennessee...Titans 2-6 vs. spread their last 8 away from Nashville. Tennessee also just 2-5 its last 7 as chalk. Washington...Skins sinking with no wins or covers last four in 2011. They're also "under" 6-2 this season and "under" 12-3 their last 15 since midway in the 2010 campaign. Washington, however, has covered 6 of last 7 vs. hated Dallas after late September Monday cover at Arlington; Skins see Cowboys next Nov. 20.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-09-2011, 08:30 PM

Trending: NFL betting in November

As we have a habit of doing when we turn the calendars to a new month, we took a look at how all 32 teams have fared both ATS and Over/Under in the month of November over the last five seasons. We also broke things down to find the best and worst home teams and road teams ATS and the teams with the highest Over and Under percentages at home and on the road in this span.
Interestingly, for overall ATS win percentage in November over the past five seasons, it’s the annual Thanksgiving participants who appear at the very top and very bottom of the list. The Dallas Cowboys lead the way at 73%, while the Detroit Lions are bringing up the rear at 25%. Here is the complete list:

ATS Records in November (2006-2010)

Team ATS Pct.
Dallas 16-6 73%
Tampa Bay 12-6 67%
San Francisco 12-7 63%
Green Bay 12-8 60%
San Diego 12-8 60%
Buffalo 11-8 58%
New York Jets 11-8 58%
Tennessee 11-8 58%
Cleveland 11-9 55%
New Orleans 11-9 55%
Atlanta 12-10 55%
Kansas City 11-10 52%
Miami 11-10 52%
Indianapolis 11-11 50%
Chicago 10-10 50%
Houston 10-10 50%
Jacksonville 10-10 50%
Minnesota 10-10 50%
Baltimore 11-12 48%
Cincinnati 10-11 48%
Philadelphia 10-11 48%
St. Louis 9-10 47%
Arizona 9-11 45%
New England 9-11 45%
Oakland 9-11 45%
Pittsburgh 9-12 43%
Washington 7-10 41%
Carolina 8-12 40%
Denver 8-13 38%
Seattle 8-13 38%
New York Giants 7-13 35%
Detroit 5-15 25%

Best Home ATS Records
Team ATS Pct.
Dallas 10-2 83%
Green Bay 5-3 63%
Tampa Bay 5-3 63%
Tennessee 5-3 63%

Worst Home ATS Records
Team ATS Pct.
New England 2-8 20%
New York Giants 2-8 20%
Detroit 3-11 21%
Indianapolis 3-9 25%
Houston 2-5 29%

Best Road ATS Records
Team ATS Pct.
Indianapolis 8-2 80%
Cleveland 7-2 78%
San Diego 7-2 78%
New England 7-3 70%
San Francisco 7-3 70%
Tampa Bay 7-3 70%

Worst Road ATS Records
Team ATS Pct.
Detroit 2-4 33%
Seattle 4-7 36%
Baltimore 5-7 42%
Denver 5-7 42%

TOTALS in November (2006-2010)

The Jacksonville Jaguars are the leaders when it comes to hitting the OVER, doing so in 68% of their November games from 2006-2010. The Oakland Raiders have been the most consistent UNDER (74%). Here is how the entire league stacks up:
Team O-U Pct. Over
Jacksonville 13-6 68%
Philadelphia 13-7 65%
Cleveland 13-8 62%
New York Giants 12-8 60%
Detroit 13-9 59%
Dallas 13-9 59%
Pittsburgh 12-9 57%
Green Bay 12-9 57%
Arizona 12-9 57%
Baltimore 13-10 57%
New York Jets 10-8 56%
Minnesota 11-9 55%
Kansas City 11-9 55%
Seattle 12-10 55%
Tampa Bay 10-9 53%
New England 10-9 53%
Denver 11-10 52%
St. Louis 9-9 50%
New Orleans 10-10 50%
Atlanta 11-11 50%
Buffalo 10-11 48%
Washington 9-10 47%
San Diego 9-10 47%
Tennessee 9-11 45%
Cincinnati 9-11 45%
Carolina 9-11 45%
Houston 8-11 42%
Miami 8-13 38%
Chicago 8-13 38%
San Francisco 7-12 37%
Indianapolis 8-14 36%
Oakland 5-14 26%

Highest Home OVER Pct.
Team O-U Pct. Over
New York Giants 8-2 80%
Arizona 7-3 70%
Jacksonville 7-4 64%
Minnesota 7-4 64%
Pittsburgh 7-4 64%

Highest Home UNDER Pct.
Team U-O Pct. Under
Indianapolis 8-3 73%
Carolina 6-3 67%
Oakland 6-3 67%
San Francisco 6-3 67%
St. Louis 6-3 67%

Highest Road OVER Pct.
Team O-U Pct. Over
Baltimore 9-3 75%
Jacksonville 6-2 75%
Philadelphia 7-3 70%
Cleveland 6-3 67%
St. Louis 6-3 67%

Highest Road UNDER Pct.
Team U-O Pct. Under
Oakland 8-2 80%
Chicago 9-3 75%
Houston 8-4 67%
Miami 8-4 67%

**StarDust Bum** · 11-09-2011, 08:31 PM

Trending: NFL Thursday games

Since the start of the 2003 season, there have been 54 regular season games played on Thursdays. In addition to the late season Thursday night contests, this study also includes the annual Thursday night season openers and all Thanksgiving Day contests.
Home teams hold a decisive edge at 31-21-2 ATS (60%), while the Under has a slight advantage (28-25-1, 53%) in these games. Further investigation reveals a number of high-percentage trends:

All favorites are 38-14 ATS (73%).

Home favorites are 25-8 ATS (76%).

Road favorites are 13-6 ATS (68%).

The success rate of home favorites increases with the size of the point spread:
Home favorites of more than 3 points are 17-3 ATS (85%).

Home favorites of 7 points or more are 13-1 ATS (93%).

Home favorites of 10 points or more are a perfect 7-0 ATS.

Additionally:
Road favorites of 7 points or more are 5-1 ATS (83%).

All favorites of 7 points or more, home or road, are 18-2 ATS (90%).

All double-digit favorites, home or road, are 10-1 ATS (91%).

The Under is 7-2 (78%) in games in which the home team is favored by 9 points or more.

The Under is 12-6 (67%) in games in which the total is less than 41.

AFC teams are 13-5 ATS (72%) vs. NFC teams.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-09-2011, 08:34 PM

Week 10 Preview: Steelers at Bengals

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (6-3)

at CINCINNATI BENGALS (6-2)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Pittsburgh -3, Total: 41.5

The Steelers try to bounce back from their last-minute loss to Baltimore in Week 9, but it won’t be easy going on the road to face a Cincinnati team with five straight victories.

The Bengals have ridden an easy early-season schedule into playoff contention, as Pittsburgh will be their toughest game yet. The Steelers nearly let one slip away in Cincinnati on a Monday night last year, holding on for a 27-21 win. Their defense has re-emerged, but the potential absence of star linebackers James Farrior (calf) and LaMarr Woodley (hamstring) will make improving rookie QB Andy Dalton feel much more comfortable in the pocket. The Bengals are 6-0 ATS against AFC opponents this year and have avoided letdowns recently, going 8-1 ATS following an SU win over the past two seasons. The pick here is home dog CINCINNATI to keep its win streak alive.

This FoxSheets trend also backs the Bengals:

Play On - Underdogs or pick (CINCINNATI) - after beating the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. (40-15 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.7%, +23.5 units. Rating = 2*).

The Steelers are 16-4 SU (15-5 ATS) in the past 20 meetings with Cincinnati. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger has been playing some of the best football of his career, ranking third in the NFL in passing yards (2,632) with 14 TD and 5 INT in eight games since Week 1. But he has not been great against the Bengals, throwing just 17 TD with 14 INT in 14 career games against them. The Steelers usually have a reliable ground game, but this year has been anything but. The team ranks 19th in the league in rushing offense (110 YPG), and that number has dipped to 86.3 rushing YPG over the past three weeks. Rashard Mendenhall has a paltry 154 yards on 39 carries (3.9 YPC) during this stretch, but rushed for 99 yards and a touchdown in his only career game in Cincinnati last year.

Despite the gaggle of defensive injuries, Pittsburgh has the league’s third-best pass defense (185 YPG) and has allowed just 183 rushing yards (61 YPG) in the past three games, improving its league rank to sixth (96 rush YPG). But the usually opportunistic defense has forced just four turnovers in nine games this season.

This lack of takeaways is good news for Cincinnati rookie QB Andy Dalton, who is coming off a tremendous game against Tennessee. He tossed 3 TD and completed at least two passes to six different receivers. Another rookie that is also having an enormous season is WR A.J. Green. He has 405 receiving yards in the past five games and has found the end zone in five of eight games this year. Leading rusher Cedric Benson has found little room to run against the Steelers recently, gaining just 95 yards (2.9 YPC) in the past three meetings. Cincy’s offense ranks 21st in the league in both passing (212 YPG) and rushing (104 YPG), but it has a +5 turnover margin in its past four games.

Cincinnati, which leads the AFC with an ATS record of 7-1, has faced an incredibly weak crop of quarterbacks so far, none better than Buffalo’s Ryan Fitzpatrick. And the opponents during the five-game win streak are a combined 13-28 SU (31.7%) this season. However, the defense has been much better than anybody could’ve imagined, especially against the run. The Bengals have allowed only one team to rush for triple-digits this year, limiting the past six opponents to an average of 77 rushing YPG.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-09-2011, 08:35 PM

Week 10 Preview: Bills at Cowboys

BUFFALO BILLS (5-3)

at DALLAS COWBOYS (4-4)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -5.5, Total: 48

Two of the more inconsistent teams in the NFL square off Sunday in Big D, when the Cowboys host the Bills.

Buffalo has neither won nor lost two straight games in its past six contests, while Dallas has alternated wins and losses in the past four games. This will be an interesting chess match between Bills head coach Chan Gailey and his spread offense against Cowboys defensive coordinator Rob Ryan and his multi-look defense. The Bills have shown the ability to move the ball in a variety of ways this year, and the Cowboys secondary can struggle, but Dallas also has a better pass rush than Buffalo’s overachieving line has seen all year. The Cowboys have employed a much more conservative offense this year, though the Bills typically don’t give up many big pass plays. They are susceptible to the run, something Dallas has done better in recent weeks. The Cowboys are just not a strong pick as a favorite, going 1-3-1 ATS when giving points this season. Dallas will probably find a way to eke out a win, but the pick here is BUFFALO to cover the spread.

This FoxSheets trend further shows the Cowboys’ futility when favored:

DALLAS is 2-11 ATS (15.4%, -10.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DALLAS 24.7, OPPONENT 23.8 - (Rating = 2*).

The Bills offense had 287 total yards and three turnovers in last week’s loss to the Jets. But they have generally been effective in 2011, ranking tied for 4th in the NFL in points (27.8 PPG) and a respectable 12th in total yards (345 YPG). RB Fred Jackson leads the AFC in rushing (803 yards) on 5.4 YPC, and has also caught 30 passes for another 391 yards. He suffered a stinger last week, but is still expected to start on Sunday. Jackson has 17 gains of 20+ yards this year and has fumbled just once in his 180 touches. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has cooled off a bit since his crazy start to the year, but his season stats of 234 passing YPG, 15 TD and 9 INT is certainly above average.

But the Buffalo defense has been below average, placing 25th in the NFL in passing yards allowed (260 YPG) and ranking 20th against the rush (121 YPG). The absence of monster NT Kyle Williams (foot) has been noticeable, and Williams may not return for this game either.

The Cowboys are finally starting to achieve proper balance on offense, racking up 442 yards (279 passing, 163 rushing) against Seattle last week. Much of this balance can be attributed to rookie RB DeMarco Murray, who has 466 yards on a whopping 7.2 YPC in his past three games since taking over for the injured Felix Jones. Murray will need to have another big afternoon, considering the team’s top wideout, Miles Austin, is injured again, out 2-to-4 weeks with a hamstring injury. This should allow Dez Bryant (26 rec, 443 yds, 4 TD) to receive more targets from Tony Romo. The Cowboys QB has cut down his mistakes in the past three weeks, throwing just one pick and 5 TD over this span.

Defensively, Dallas has been tough against the run (102 YPG, 10th in NFL), but mediocre in terms of passing defense (233 YPG, 16th in league). Starting CB Mike Jenkins has been dealing with a hamstring injury and is doubtful to play in this game. Dallas has forced nine turnovers in the past four weeks and Buffalo has eight giveaways over this span.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-09-2011, 08:37 PM

Week 10 Preview: Saints at Falcons

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (6-3)

at ATLANTA FALCONS (5-3)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Atlanta -1, Total: 51.5

The top spot in the NFC South is up for grabs when the streaking Falcons host the Saints on Sunday.

Atlanta has come on strong in recent weeks, outscoring opponents 85-40 during a three-game win streak. RB Michael Turner has 332 of his team’s 458 rushing yards and three touchdowns during this win streak and has had recent success against New Orleans too. In the past three meetings in this series, all won by the road team, Turner has rumbled for 313 yards and 2 TD. The Saints have allowed 701 rushing yards (140 YPG) in the past five games, so they certainly have their work cut out for them in slowing down Turner. New Orleans is 1-4 ATS (2-3 SU) on the road this year, while the Falcons are 13-6 ATS (68%) in regular-season games at the Georgia Dome since the start of 2009. The pick here is ATLANTA.These two FoxSheets trends also back the Falcons:

Mike Smith is 28-13 ATS (68.3%, +13.7 Units) after the first month of the season as the coach of ATLANTA. The average score was ATLANTA 25.0, OPPONENT 19.7 - (Rating = 2*).

NEW ORLEANS is 1-8 ATS (11.1%, -7.8 Units) in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 26.7, OPPONENT 25.4 - (Rating = 1*).

Matt Ryan hasn’t been particularly sharp this season (12 TD, 9 INT), but he’s coming off a tremendous game against the Colts, throwing for 275 yards and 3 TD with a strong 11.46 YPA. He’s also been solid against the Saints, throwing for 246 YPG, 7 TD and 4 INT in five career meetings. WR Julio Jones continues his stellar rookie campaign with 131 receiving yards and two touchdowns (80 yards and 50 yards) last week. The one player that has struggled in this offense is star WR Roddy White. After gaining 1,389 receiving yards (87 per game) last season, White has only 501 yards in the first half of 2011, reaching 80 yards in a game just once back in Week 3. The Saints held him to a season-low three catches and 43 yards when these teams met last December.

Atlanta has shown great improvement on the defensive end in recent weeks, holding its past three opponents to 272 total YPG and opposing QBs to a 53% completion rate. The Falcons’ run-stop unit ranks seventh in the NFL in rushing defense (97 YPG) and held New Orleans to 115 rushing yards on 40 carries (2.9 YPC) in the two meetings last year.

Drew Brees leads the NFL with 334 passing YPG and trails only Aaron Rodgers for the league lead in QB rating (100.6). However, Brees also ranks second in the NFL in interceptions (11), trailing only Philip Rivers from San Diego. Brees has had little trouble with Atlanta’s pass defense over the years. He has won eight of 11 career meetings against the Falcons, throwing for 294 YPG, 21 TD and 10 INT against them. Although TE Jimmy Graham (55 rec, 791 yds, 5 TD) leads the team in all receiving categories by a wide margin, five other Saints have at least 25 catches so far. Rookie RB Mark Ingram has had his moments this year, but his YPC average is a subpar 3.8 and he could miss his third straight game because of a heel injury.

The defense also has two major injury concerns on defense, as both LB Jonathan Vilma (knee) and CB Tracy Porter (neck) are questionable for this game. For the season, New Orleans ranks 14th in passing defense (228 YPG) and 17th against the rush (120 YPG). Although the Saints allowed 365 total yards to Tampa Bat last week, they had allowed only 288 YPG in the previous two weeks.

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The Bum's NFL Week # 10 Best Bets 11/10-11/14 !

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