The Bum's CFB Week # 9 Best Bets !

[Sirporkie]

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[StarDust Bum]

Unbeaten Road 'Chalk'

October 29, 2011

Week 9 of the 2011 college football season offers us a pair of primetime games with unbeaten road favorites trying to stay in the national-title picture.

Let’s start on The Flats in Midtown Atlanta, where a slumping Georgia Tech (6-2 straight up, 4-3-1 against the spread) squad will host Clemson. As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had the Tigers installed as 3 ½-point favorites with the total in the 62-63 range. Gamblers can take the Yellow Jackets to win outright for a plus-150 return (risk $100 to win $150).

Clemson (8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS) has covered the spread in six straight games, including last week’s 59-38 win over North Carolina as a 9 ½-point home favorite. Tajh Boy enjoyed another tremendous performance, throwing for 367 yards and five touchdowns without being intercepted. He also added a rushing score.

For the season, Boyd has an incredible 24/4 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio. The sophomore signal caller has a dynamic freshman weapon in wide receiver Sammy Watkins, who has 55 receptions for 819 yards and nine TDs. Watkins has 1,391 all-purpose yards and had a kickoff return for a TD that played a crucial role in a comeback win at Maryland two weeks ago.

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Junior RB Andre Ellington has a team-high 745 rushing yards and seven TDs while averaging 5.1 yards per carry. However, Ellington has been limited at practice this week with an ankle injury and is listed as ‘questionable.’

Ga. Tech raced out to a 6-0 start but has gone down in back-to-back road games. On Oct. 15, Paul Johnson’s team lost a 24-21 decision at Virginia as a 7 ½-point road ‘chalk.’ Then last week in South Florida, Miami thumped the Yellow Jackets 24-7 as a three-point home favorite.

The Hurricanes limited Ga. Tech’s offense to merely 211 yards of total offense. QB Tevin Washington was held to only 36 rushing yards on 20 carries and he threw a costly interception.

Washington played extremely well in Tech’s first six wins. For the season, he has 460 rushing yards and nine TDs. The junior signal caller has 1,139 passing yards and a 10/5 TD-INT ratio.

Junior RB Orwin Smith leads the Jackets in rushing with 516 yards and eight TDs. Smith averages an eye-opening 12.3 YPC. He also has 12 receptions for 286 yards and one TD.

As a home underdog during Johnson’s four-year tenure, Ga. Tech has posted a 1-1 record both SU and ATS. Clemson owns a 4-3 spread record in seven games as a road favorite on Dabo Swinney’s watch.

When these teams met last season, Clemson captured a 27-13 win as a 4 ½-point home favorite. However, the Tigers lost 30-27 in their last trip to Atlanta in 2009 and also lost to the Jackets that same year by a 39-34 count in the ACC Championship Game.

The ‘over’ is 6-2 overall for Clemson this year, 1-1 in its two road assignments. Meanwhile, Ga. Tech has watched the ‘over’ go 5-3 overall, 3-1 in its home games. The ‘under’ is 5-2 in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these ACC adversaries.

This game will come off the board at 8:00 p.m. Eastern and will be a part of ESPN’s Game Plan package (channel 789 on DirecTV).

Stanford (7-0 SU, 7-0 ATS) is another unbeaten road favorite with a dangerous game Saturday night. David Shaw’s team will come to The Coliseum to face a hot Southern Cal squad.

Stanford has won its seven games by 26 points or more, scoring 44 points or more on its own in six of those contests. The Cardinal blasted a 5-1 Washington team by a 65-21 count as a 20 ½-point home ‘chalk’ last week.

Junior QB Andrew Luck, who is the plus-150 favorite to win the Heisman Trophy at Sportsbook.com, threw a pair of TDs to improve his TD-INT ratio to 20/3. Stepfan Taylor burned the Huskies for 138 yards and one score on just 10 carries.

Taylor has rushed for 697 yards and six TDs while averaging 6.3 YPC. His back-ups, Anthony Wilkerson and Tyler Gaffney, have combined to rush for 465 yards and eight scores.

USC (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) has won three in a row since getting routed by Arizona St. in Tempe. The Trojans were extremely impressive last week, going to South Bend and emerging with a 31-17 win as 9 ½-point road underdogs.

Junior QB Matt Barkley threw for 224 yards and three TDs without getting picked off. Curtis McNeal carried the load on the ground, rushing 24 times for 118 yards.

For the year, Barkley has 19 TD passes compared to only four interceptions.

Stanford has been dynamite as a road favorite recently, going 7-1 ATS in its last eight such spots. The Cardinal has a 9-3 spread record in its last 12 games as a single-digit favorite (regardless of home/away).

USC has only been a home ‘dog once on Lane Kiffin’s watch. In that spot, So. Cal got pounded 53-32 by Oregon as a 6 ½-point home ‘dog.

When these Pac-12 rivals met in Palo Alto last season, Stanford won a 37-35 decision but the Trojans took the cash as double-digit underdogs.

The ‘under’ is 4-3 overall for USC, 2-2 in its home games. As for Stanford, it has seen the ‘under’ go 4-3 overall, 3-0 in its road tilts.

Most spots are listing Stanford as an eight-point favorite with a total of 60 1/2. The Trojans are plus-250 on the money line (risk $100 to win $250).

ABC will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

[StarDust Bum]

Some Early Morning Results:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/29/11 12-*5-*0 70.59% +*3250 Detail

Mississippi - 7:00 PM ET Auburn -12.5 500
Auburn - Over 51 500

California - 7:00 PM ET UCLA +4 500
UCLA - Under 51 500

Mississippi State - 7:00 PM ET Mississippi State -10 500
Kentucky - Under 41.5 500

Kansas - 7:00 PM ET Texas -28 500
Texas - Under 64.5 500

Oregon State - 7:00 PM ET Utah -5 500
Utah - Over 49.5 500

North Texas - 7:00 PM ET Arkansas State -17.5 500
Arkansas State - Over 54 500

Iowa State - 7:00 PM ET Texas Tech -14 500
Texas Tech - Over 67 500

South Carolina - 7:15 PM ET Tennessee +3.5 500
Tennessee -

UL Lafayette - 7:30 PM ET Middle Tennessee -3 500
Middle Tennessee - Over 61.5 500

Clemson - 8:00 PM ET Clemson -3.5 500
Georgia Tech - Over 61.5 500

Nevada - 8:00 PM ET New Mexico State +15 500 WAC DOG
New Mexico State - Over 60.5 500

Stanford - 8:00 PM ET Stanford -7 500
Southern California - Over 62 500

Wisconsin - 8:00 PM ET Ohio State +7.5 500 BIG 10 DOG
Ohio State - Over 48.5 500

Southern Mississippi - 8:00 PM ET Southern Mississippi -10 500
Texas El Paso -

Wyoming - 10:00 PM ET Wyoming +18.5 500
San Diego State -

Arizona - 10:30 PM ET Arizona +3.5 500
Washington -

[StarDust Bum]

Finished the Month of October in the positive column + 119.50 units for all best bets and opinions.

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/29/11 45-*27-*0 62.50% +*7650 Detail Best Weekend of the Month

10/28/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/27/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
10/26/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/25/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
10/22/11 22-*25-*0 46.81% -*2750 Detail
10/21/11 3-*0-*1 100.00% +*1500 Detail
10/20/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
10/18/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/15/11 33-*31-*3 51.56% -*550 Detail
10/14/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/13/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
10/08/11 29-*19-*0 60.42% +*4050 Detail
10/07/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/06/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
10/01/11 55-*45-*2 55.00% +*2750 Detail

Totals 201-*161-*6 55.52% +11950