The Bum's CFB Week # 9 Best Bets !

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Big 10 Report - Week 9

Nebraska (-4) vs. Michigan State - 12:00 AM EST, ESPN

NEB: 6-1 SU, 2-5 ATS - Last week: at Minnesota, W 41-14
MSU: 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS - Last week: vs. Wisconsin, W 37-31

This is arguably the Big Ten Game of the Year in the Legends Division. The winner has the inside track to play in the Big Ten Championship in Indianapolis. This was already a huge game for the Huskers as they won't want to lose to the two top teams in the Big Ten in their inaugural season as a member (already blown out by Wisconsin). It's an extremely tough situation for the Spartans, as they have to bounce back after last week's huge win and play in a hostile environment.

Michigan State delivered a win last week that will be shown in highlights for the next 50 years. With the score tied 31-31, MSU completed a Hail Mary pass as time expired to beat 6th ranked Wisconsin. The Spartans were actually outgained by the Badgers, but made big plays when it mattered. They blocked a punt for touchdown, blocked a field goal, forced a safety, and scored on a double-reverse. QB Cousins played his best game of the season, completing 22-of-31 passes for 290 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Nebraska made quick work of Minnesota last week, rolling to a 34-0 halftime lead. The Huskers were able to cruise to an easy 41-14 win behind 515 total yards and 27 first downs. They recorded a defensive touchdown while holding the Gophers to just 254 yards and 11 first downs. It's hard to determine how strong a team is after dismantling the last place team in the Big Ten, but Nebraska certainly has some momentum as it returns home to face the Spartans after back to back wins over Ohio State and Minnesota (with a bye in between).

Michigan State is 8th in the nation in rush defense (89 YPG), but was torched for 220 yards (5.4) last week against Wisconsin. Nebraska is 7th nationally in rush offense, averaging 261YPG. Nebraska may be able to run the ball with success against MSU, but the main key here will be the passing game behind QB Martinez. Martinez is completing just 55% for 168 YPG with 7 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.

Something to consider: MSU head coach Mark Dantonio is just 1-6 straight up in road/neutral games vs. ranked teams. Nebraska is just 3-12 ATS in its last 15 home games.

Ohio State (+7) vs. Wisconsin - 8:00 PM EST, ESPN

OSU: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS - Last week: BYE
WISC: 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS - Last week: at Michigan State, L 31-37

This is not a good situation for the Badgers. Wisconsin must bounce back from a heartbreaking last second loss to Michigan State last week - a loss that eliminates them from National Championship contention and likely takes QB Wilson out of the Heisman running. To make matters worse, it will be their second-consecutive road night game in Columbus for OSU's homecoming. And the Buckeyes are off of a bye week and want revenge after Wisconsin upset then-#1 OSU last season (only defeat of the 2010 season).

The Badgers actually outplayed the Spartans last week, but let their guard down for 4-5 plays that turned the game in MSU's favor. Wisconsin had more yards and more first downs, but had a punt blocked (for touchdown), a field goal blocked, was forced into a safety, and allowed a Hail Mary touchdown. Wisco boasts the 8th best offense (511 YPG) in the nation, 5th scoring offense (47.4 PPG), 9th total defense (287 YPG allowed), and 6th scoring defense (13.6 PPG allowed).

Over the last five games, Ohio State QB's have completed just 30-of-79 passes (38%) for 83 YPG with five touchdowns and three interceptions (including just one completion in a 17-7 win over Illinois on Oct. 15). OSU's offense ranks 110th nationally in yards per game and 88th in scoring offense. The Buckeyes have remained competitive with a strong defense, but we're going out on a limb here and saying that OSU will need competent QB play to upset the Badgers on Saturday.

Ohio State already has as many losses this season as it had in 2009 & 2010 combined. The Buckeyes are off of a much-needed bye week and healthy for this season-defining game. A win here would put OSU in the mix in the Leaders division title and give them a ton of momentum for a favorable schedule ahead.

Something to consider: Ohio State has been a Big Ten home underdog just three times in the past 10 years. You'd have to go back to 1992 for the last time Ohio State was a touchdown-or-more underdog at home.

Penn State (-4.5) vs. Illinois - 3:30 PM EST, ABC/ESPN2

PSU: 7-1 SU, 2-6 ATS - Last week: at Northwestern, W 34-24
ILL: 6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS - Last week: at Purdue, L 14-21

After PSU's loss to #2 Alabama back on September 10th, everyone all but dismissed the Nittany Lions and their Big Ten title hopes. But here we are in the last week of October and Penn State is alone in first place of the Leaders division with a 4-0 conference mark. It's not always pretty, but the Lions simply continue to win games (five of their six straight wins have been by 10-points or less). A win here would give PSU seven-straight wins heading into its bye week.

This PSU stop-unit is as good as it gets. PSU is limiting its opponents to just 282 yards per game (8th nationally) and 13 points per game (5th) despite the early season loss of standout LB Mauti. The emergence of QB McGloin and RB Redd has greatly helped this struggling offense. McGloin has passed for seven touchdowns and just two picks over the last five games and Redd has rushed for 566 yards in four Big Ten games (142 YPG and 5.5 YPC) after just 303 rush yards in four non-conference games.

Illinois has dropped two straight games after a strong 6-0 start. The offense has failed to put up points in six of the last eight quarters (shutout in the first three quarters of back-to-back games). They've put up just 326 YPG and 21 total points in those two losses after averaging 448 YPG and 35 points per game in the first six games of the season.

Something to consider: Illinois won 33-13 at Penn State last year for its first ever win in State College. Prior to last year, Illinois was 0-6 in Happy Valley with the average margin of defeat of 16 PPG. They are 5-2 ATS in the previous seven meetings but just 3-11 straight up since 1993.

Michigan (-13) vs. Purdue - 12:00 PM EST, ESPN2

MICH: 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS - Last week: BYE
PUR: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS - Last week: vs. Illinois, W 21-14

Purdue has followed up every win with a loss this season and the Boilers will try to avoid that streak as they head into Ann Arbor after a breakthrough win over Illinois last week. The Wolverines are off of a bye week will try to avoid the 2nd half slide that has happened over each of the last two seasons. They started 4-0 in 2009 and 5-0 in 2010 before finishing both seasons a combined 3-13 (started 6-0 this season before last week's loss).

Defensively the Wolverines have respectable statistics and rankings, but this unit has struggled against the three best offenses it has faced. Against MSU, Notre Dame, and Northwestern the Wolverines have allowed 28 PPG, 173 rush YPG, and 428 total YPG (allowing 5 PPG, 124 rush YPG, and 267 total YPG against four other teams). Purdue's offense is improving, but isn't on par with the top half of the Big Ten.

Michigan was averaging 458 YPG and 38 PPG before managing just 250 yards and 14 points against MSU. QB Robinson totaled just 165 total yards (had been averaging 308 YPG). Robinson leads the Big Ten in rushing, but is also tops in interceptions and has had to leave in each of the last two games with injuries. Purdue is respectable on defense (40th in yards allowed and 24th in points allowed) and saw some success against Robinson last season. The Boilers held him to just 176 passing yards and 68 rush yards (3.1 YPC) and forced four turnovers (2 interceptions and 2 fumbles).

Something to consider: Purdue won the last time here in 2009 to end an 18-game losing streak at the Big House. They've now covered three straight against the Wolverines.

Minnesota (+16) vs. Iowa - 3:30 PM EST, Big Ten Network

MINN: 1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS - Last week: vs. Nebraska, L 14-41
IOWA: 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS - Last week: vs. Indiana, W 45-24

Iowa bounced back after the three-point performance at Penn State by racking up 86 points in wins against Northwestern and Indiana the past two weeks. QB Vandenberg completed 26-of-38 passes with six touchdowns and just one interception in those two games while RB Coker has rushed for 263 yards (5.8 YPC) and four touchdowns. Both Vandenberg and Coker should have another big day against this defense that ranks 100th in yards allowed and 116th in points allowed.

Iowa still has a long way to go on defense as the Hawkeyes are surrendering 245 pass YPG (90th) and 162 rush YPG (68th). They have a chance to gain some confidence here against Minnesota. The Gophers have scored just 31 points the past three games and rank near the bottom in every major offensive category.

The Gophers don't have much to brag about these days. They came out of their bye week lifeless against Nebraska last week, falling behind 34-0 by halftime. Minnesota has now dropped four straight games and will be lucky to avoid a 1-11 season. They do, however, have possession of the Floyd of Rosedale trophy after last year's upset win over Iowa. Minnesota outgained Iowa by +168 yards and had +6 first downs.

Something to consider: Iowa has won eight of the last 10 in this series. The Hawkeyes were 12-1 ATS in this series from 1993-2005, but have failed to cover four of the last five - including last year's loss.

Indiana (+8.5) vs. Northwestern - 11:00 AM CST, Big Ten Network

IND: 1-7 SU, 4-4 ATS - Last week: at Iowa, L 24-45
NW: 2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS - Last week: vs. Penn State, L 24-34

The nightmare season has continued for Northwestern. They've dropped five straight after a 2-0 start and need to win four of the final five games to become Bowl eligible. Indiana is already eliminated from Bowl contention as the Hoosier's only win this season came against FCS South Carolina State.

Northwestern is allowing 39 points per game in Big Ten play. The offense is gaining yards (405 per game) and putting up points (28 points per game), but until this defense starts creating stops, this team is going nowhere. QB Persa (75% with six touchdowns) can put up big numbers in this offense if he can stay healthy.

Indiana has lost four straight Big Ten games. The last three have been by 21, 52, and 21 points. Defensively the Hoosiers have allowed 41+ points in three straight games and this unit ranks at or near the bottom in every major statistical category. If there's a silver lining in all of this, it's that Indiana had a strong contribution from freshman QB Tre Robinson last week in his first start. Robinson passed for 197 yards and a score while rushing for 84 more.

Something to consider: Northwestern has won six of the last seven meetings. However, the largest margin in any of those games was 7 points - average margin of victory of 3.7 points per game.

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BYU at TCU

October 27, 2011


Texas Christian (5-2 straight up, 4-3 against the spread) hasn’t fared well on Fridays this season, suffering both of its losses in Friday night games. The Horned Frogs lost their season opener 50-48 at Baylor and then went down at home to SMU in overtime on Sept. 30.

TCU will make its third and final Friday night appearance this week at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington against Brigham Young. Most books are listing the Horned Frogs as 13-point favorites with a total of 56. Gamblers can take the Cougars to win outright for a plus-450 return (risk $100 to win $450).

Gary Patterson’s team is coming off a 69-0 demolition of New Mexico as a 44 ½-point home favorite. The Horned Frogs limited UNM’s offense to just 85 total yards. QB Casey Paschall threw two touchdown passes and Matt Brown rushed for a pair of scores in the run-away-and-hide triumph.

BYU (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) has quietly won five in a row since an embarrassing blowout loss to arch-rival Utah at home. The Cougars have taken the cash in back-to-back outings, including last week’s 56-3 win over Idaho St. as 41 ½-point home favorites.

Riley Nelson has been the catalyst since replacing Jake Heaps as the starting QB. Nelson has 11 touchdown passes compared to only three interceptions. He had three scoring strikes and wasn’t intercepted last week.

Two weeks ago, Bronco Mendenhall’s squad went to Corvallis and emerged with a 38-28 win over Oregon St. as a three-point underdog. Nelson torched the Beavers for 217 passing yards and three TDs and also had a team-high 87 yards on the ground.

Paschall, TCU’s sophomore signal caller, has done an excellent job in replacing Andy Dalton. He has completed 69.7 percent of his throws for 1,566 yards with a stellar 17/4 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio.

TCU is 3-1 SU at home this year, 2-2 ATS.

TCU has won three in a row against BYU, but the Cougars covered the spread in last year’s 31-3 home loss as 30-point underdogs. The Horned Frogs took the money in the two previous meetings. The ‘under’ has cashed in three straight meetings between these schools.

BYU is 2-1 both SU and ATS on the road this season. During Mendenhall’s seven-year tenure, the Cougars have posted a 7-6-1 spread record as a road underdog. Meanwhile, TCU owns a 32-20 ATS mark as a home ‘chalk’ under Patterson.

The ‘over’ is 6-1 overall for TCU. The ‘under’ is 5-3 overall for BYU, but the ‘over’ has hit in back-to-back games for the Cougars.

ESPN will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Oklahoma St. owns a 30-12-1 spread record when listed as a favorite during Mike Gundy’s tenure. The Cowboys are favored by 14 at home vs. Baylor this week.

--Florida has won 18 of the last 21 head-to-head meetings against Georgia.

--If I’m a Clemson fan, the one thing that scares me to death this weekend is that Paul Johnson might outclass Dabo Swinney in the coaching department. The Yellow Jackets return home after dropping back-to-back road games, so they’re in desperation mode at home vs. Clemson. Most spots have the Tigers installed as 3 ½-point favorites. Sportsbook.com has Clemson with an 18/1 number to win the BCS Championship Game.

[StarDust Bum]

BYU at TCU: What bettors need to know

BYU Cougars at TCU Horned Frogs (-13.5, 56)

The Cougars and Horned Frogs keep their old Mountain West Conference rivalry alive, despite the fact that BYU is rolling solo as an independent and TCU is heading to the Big 12 or the Big East... errr, somewhere next season.

"I consider this like a conference game, we've played BYU for so long,” TCU head coach Gary Patterson told the Star-Telegram. “I'd rather not play a non-conference game in the middle of the season but this is the only time we could work it out."

The respective religious schools collide on the grand stage that is Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas Friday night.

LINE MOVES

The Horned Frogs opened as 11.5-point favorites, and that spread has been bet up to 13.5 – just below the key number of two touchdowns. The total opened at 56 points and has remained fairly steady.

DO OVER

Brigham Young has been looking forward to erasing a 31-3 beating from TCU since it walked off the field at Amon G. Carter Stadium last October.

The Cougars were demolished in that game, especially quarterback Jake Heaps, who threw two interceptions and was sacked three times. BYU put up only 14 yards of offense in the first half of that loss, finishing with 147 total yards on the day.

Heaps, who has continued to struggle, has been replaced by junior passer Riley Nelson, who head coach Bronco Mendenhall announced as the team’s starter again this week.

"I see the game going, and the rotation going, as it has been going. I like the direction of our team offensively," Mendenhall told the Salt Lake Tribune. "Again, if the team were to struggle, and if we weren’t able to move the ball and score points, Jake would come in and perform. But I like the chance for the quarterbacks to get into rhythm and to play, and until proven otherwise, we will go down the same road we have been traveling, with Riley."

Nelson has been impressive since taking over under center. He’s completed almost 62 percent of his passes, thrown for 11 touchdowns (to just three interceptions), and, since becoming the No. 1 three games ago, has yet to have a three-and-out, with BYU punting only twice in possessions started with Nelson at QB.

Nelson is also a dangerous option on the ground, rushing for 284 yards, including 62 yards and a touchdown in last week’s 56-3 beating of FCS Idaho State.

FROGGY STYLE

Texas Christian flexed its offensive muscle with a 69-0 thumping of New Mexico last weekend, putting up over 500 total yards of offense in the win.

The Horned Frogs rank eighth in the country in scoring, averaging almost 44 points a game. In the case of TCU, it’s true that speed kills. It boasts the 18th-best rushing attack in the nation and is tied for 11th for most yards per play with 6.6.

"With the style of offense that they run and the kind of athletes that they have, it's one of those games where you have to do your assignment," BYU senior linebacker Jordan Pendleton told the Daily Herald. "Playing Idaho State you could maybe screw up once or twice and someone else would make the play but against these guys your can't.”

The TCU rushing attack is anchored by running backs Waymon James and Matthew Tucker. James, the speedier of the two, is fourth in the MWC with 450 yards on the ground, while Tucker, the smash-mouth short-yardage back, is third in the league in touchdowns, rumbling for seven scores this season.

On the wings, TCU has perhaps the fastest receiving corps in college football. Josh Boyce, who runs a 10.4 100-meter dash, has reeled in 604 yards receiving and five TDs. His partner, Skye Dawson, is the current MWC 100-meter champ at a time of 10.2 seconds and has grabbed 27 balls for 268 yards and three scores.

Sophomore quarterback Casey Pachall is second in the conference in passing, with 1,566 yards, 17 touchdowns and five interceptions. He threw for just 175 yards and two scores in the blowout over the Lobos last week.

NOT FORT WORTH IT

Despite the prestige of playing in one of the greatest stadiums on the planet, TCU isn’t crazy about having a home game moved to Cowboys Stadium in Arlington. The Horned Frogs are insisting that this be their final game played inside Jerry Jones’ cutting-edge setting.

"I'd have 40,000 in purple instead of it being 50-50," Patterson told reporters about playing in Arlington. "That's why we won't play people in the Big 12 over at Cowboys Stadium, if I get any say. Because I'd rather have home-field advantage. As soon as you go into Cowboys Stadium you no longer have home-field advantage."

Last season, the Horned Frogs drew 46,138 fans to Cowboys Stadium for their season opener with Oregon State, winning 30-21 but failing to cover as 13.5-point chalk. Brigham Young took on Oklahoma at Cowboys Stadium in 2009, shocking the Sooners 14-13 as a 22.5-point pup in front of 75,437 fans.

Trends

* Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as road underdog.
* Horned Frogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Under is 13-3 in Cougars last 16 games as underdogs.
* Over is 5-1 in Horned Frogs last six games as favorites.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s betting tips: Big action coming in on TCU

Who’s hot

NCAAF: BYU is 9-4 against the spread in its last 13 overall.

NHL: San Jose is 12-5 in its last 17 meetings with Detroit.

NHL: The over is 7-3 in St. Louis’ last 10 road games.

CFL: Toronto is 4-2 against the spread in its last six games against Winnipeg.

Who’s not

NCAAF: TCU is 0-5 against the number in its last five non-conference games.

NHL: Colorado is 6-22 in its last 28 home games.

NHL: Chicago is 2-8-1 in its last 12 games against Carolina.

CFL: The over is 0-3 in Winnipeg’s last three overall.

Key stat

56- About 56 percent of the NHL’s games heading into Thursday’s action have played under their posted totals. A little more than 57 percent of the games over the last week have played under.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Andre Johnson, Houston Texans - Johnson will be a game-time decision for this weekend's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Head coach Gary Kubiak confirmed Jackson's status following Thursday's practice session. The All-Pro wideout hasn't played since suffering a strained hamstring in a Week 4 game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Texans have been cautious with the 30-year-old, and ran him through a normal practice Thursday with no complications. Johnson has 25 catches for 352 yards and a pair of touchdowns this season. Houston is currently a 9.5-point favorite at home to Jacksonville Sunday.

Game of the day

Brigham Young at Texas Christian (-13.5, 56)

Notable quotable

"I see the game going, and the rotation going, as it has been going. I like the direction of our team offensively. Again, if the team were to struggle, and if we weren’t able to move the ball and score points, Jake would come in and perform. But I like the chance for the quarterbacks to get into rhythm and to play, and until proven otherwise, we will go down the same road we have been traveling, with Riley." – BYU coach Rocco Mendenhall on junior Riley Nelson starting again Friday and likely playing the entire game. The team hasn’t had a three-and-out since Nelson took over Jake Heaps more than three games ago.

Notes and tips

Texas Christian has been a strong bet at home for a long time, going 26-12 in its last 36 home games and bettors are lining up to bet the Horned Frogs Friday when they host BYU. As of Thursday night, almost 64 percent of *********** Consensus bettors were backing TCU as 13-point favorites. BYU is 4-4 against the spread this season.

Formula One drivers' champion Sebastien Vettel has hinted at the possibility of letting Red Bull teammate Mark Webber overtake him at the season-ending Indian Grand Prix. A Webber victory would give Red Bull the top two spots in the standings, which would be a fitting end to a season in which the team ran away with the constructors' title. Vettel, who has won 10 of 16 races this season, said "scenarios" could be in play that would allow him to concede the lead to Webber. Vettel has previously said he didn't like the idea of helping out his teammate in that regard, but with history on the line has apparently capitulated.

South Carolina freshman running back Brandon Wilds will start Saturday's game against Tennessee. Wilds gets the start after stud running back Marcus Lattimore was sidelined for the remainder of the season with a ligament and cartilage damage in his left knee. Lattimore suffered the injury while blocking during the fourth quarter of a 14-12 victory over Mississippi State on Oct. 15. Wilds had five carries in his last two games and 13 for the season.

Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford worked with the first-team offense during Thursday's practice session and is on track to start Sunday's game against the Denver Broncos. Stafford has been hobbled by an ankle injury but reportedly looked good in limited action Thursday. The 23-year-old rolled his ankle late in the Lions' 23-16 loss to the Atlanta Falcons. He appeared to move well in Wednesday's practice and should be able to suit up Sunday. Stafford has completed 60.2 percent of his passes this season, throwing for 1,912 yards with 16 touchdowns and four interceptions.

[StarDust Bum]

College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Week 9

Rice Owls at Houston Cougars (-27.5, 70.5)

Why Rice will cover: The Owls scored 20 or more in all but one game (at Texas A&M), which means Houston would have to put up 50-plus to cover that spread.

Why Houston will cover: Houston has the top-ranked pass offense (442 ypg) and top-ranked scoring offense (49.3 ppg). Rice’s defense ranks in the bottom 25 in every category.

Points: The under has hit in Rice’s last three and in two of Houston’s last four games.

Purdue Boilermakers at Michigan Wolverines (-13, 52.5)

Why Purdue will cover: The Boilermakers are led by a defense that doesn’t allow big plays, which is how the Wolverines have been winning.

Why Michigan will cover: The team has something to prove after the meltdown two weeks ago at Michigan State. The defense still ranks No. 8 in scoring (14.8 ppg). The home team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 in this series.

Points: Both teams are led by defenses that bend but don’t break.

Michigan State Spartans at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-4, 49.5)

Why Michigan State will cover: The Spartans beat a Wisconsin team that spanked the Huskers earlier this season. MSU is 4-0 ATS recently and 8-2 in its last 10 against teams with a winning record, while NU is 2-5 ATS this season.

Why Nebraska will cover: Nebraska is a new team, outscoring Ohio State 28-7 in the second half of a win and rolling at Minnesota last week. The Huskers don’t lose often at home.

Points: With a Big Ten division title possibly in the balance, both teams are due for breakout offensive games.

Missouri Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies (-11.5, 61.5)

Why Missouri will cover: Texas A&M ranks dead last against the pass, but if the defense is focused on stopping Mizzou’s 39th-ranked pass game, its 12th-ranked run game will get it.

Why Texas A&M will cover: The Aggies offense averages better than 40 ppg and the defense, while poor against the pass, is No. 5 against the run.

Points: The over is 4-3 for both teams, and both teams seem poised to put up yards.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Vanderbilt Commodores (+10, 52)

Why Arkansas will cover: Arkansas’ offense can go off at any moment. The team is 11-3 in its last 14 SEC games, while Vandy is 2-8 in its last 10.

Why Vanderbilt will cover: Vandy’s defense has been reliable, and the offense can run the ball and grind the clock if it gets a lead.

Points: If Vandy gets an early lead, the under could hit. If Arkansas comes out firing, the over is favorable.

Virginia Tech Hokies at Duke Blue Devils (+15, 53.5)

Why Virginia Tech will cover: The Hokies run the ball and stop the run for success. Duke won’t be able to run, and a one-dimensional offense isn’t going to get it done.

Why Duke will cover: Duke’s run defense is decent, and if the Devils get down, they have shown the ability to move the ball through the air.

Points: The under is 8-1-1 in Duke’s last 10 and 10-4-1 in Va. Tech’s last 15.

Washington State Cougars at Oregon Ducks (-36.5, 69)

Why Washington State will cover: That’s a monster spread for a BCS conference game. Especially against a WSU team ranking 10th in passing and 32nd in scoring (34 ppg).

Why Oregon will cover: The banged-up Ducks are getting healthier every week. Washington State can’t stop them, and the defense doesn’t allow big points.

Points: That’s a big total, but Oregon games have hit higher.

Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats (13.5, 58.5)

Why Oklahoma will cover: The Sooners still have an ultra-explosive offense that ranks No. 4 in passing (379 ypg) and No. 7 in scoring (44.3 ppg). OU is 7-3 ATS against teams with a winning record.

Why Kansas State will cover: K-State is 6-0 ATS in its last six because its defense is solid at every level and QB Collin Klein has emerged as a hard-to-handle dual-threat.

Points: The over has hit in four of the last five for both teams.

West Virginia Mountaineers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6.5, 53.5)

Why West Virginia will cover: The Mountaineers average 374 yards with the pass. Rutgers’ offense, meanwhile, has been inconsistent at best.

Why Rutgers will cover: Rutgers’ defense has kept teams within distance; the team is 5-2 ATS this season. The Knights saw how Syracuse dismantled WVU last week.

Points: The over is 6-0 for West Virginia in its last six, but the under is 4-0 in Rutgers’ last four.

Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-14, 79)

Why Baylor will cover: Baylor can score on anyone, averaging 549 ypg (No. 2). The defense isn’t great, but neither is OSU’s.

Why Oklahoma State will cover: OSU’s offense is third in yards, second in pass yards and second in scoring nationally. Baylor’s defense is in the bottom-third in every major category. The favorite is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

Points: The over is 10-1 in Baylor’s last 11 in conference. There could easily be 1,000 yards of offense.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Penn State Nittany Lions (-4.5, 40.5)

Why Illinois will cover: While Penn State’s offense can’t do much, Illinois can run the ball well. PSU is just 2-6 ATS.

Why Penn State will cover: The Lions’ defense is in the top 20 in every category, including fifth in points allowed. Illinois’ offense has been shut down in the last two weeks.

Points: Both teams rely on stout defenses for success.

Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs (-3, 49)

Why Florida will cover: The Gators are 7-1 ATS in its last eight neutral site games (this one’s in Jacksonville). The defense has been stout, especially against the pass.

Why Georgia will cover: Florida will struggle to throw on Georgia, so if the Bulldogs can build a lead early, they might win handily.

Points: This game could be a grind-it-out slugfest.

Colorado Buffaloes at Arizona State Sun Devils (-30.5, 56)

Why Colorado will cover: Colorado has struggled, but that’s a good-sized spread against an ASU team that isn’t necessarily lighting the world on fire.

Why Arizona State will cover: ASU’s numbers aren’t terrific, but it still ranks No. 31 in points scored and No. 36 in points allowed. Colorado simply can’t keep up.

Points: ASU piles up the points at home, but can it score enough knowing Colorado isn’t likely to help much?

Iowa State Cyclones at Texas Tech Red Raiders (-15, 66.5)

Why Iowa State will cover: The Cyclones have a balanced offense that can keep an undisciplined defense on edge. If ISU has a strength on defense, it’s defending the pass.

Why Texas Tech will cover: Confidence must be high after winning at Oklahoma last week. ISU won’t be able to keep up in a shootout. The Cyclones are 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games.

Points: The over has hit in six straight for TTU and three of the last four for ISU.

South Carolina Gamecocks at Tennessee Volunteers (3.5, 43.5)

Why South Carolina will cover: USC’s defense is No. 1 against the pass, and Tennessee can’t run the ball.

Why Tennessee will cover: After playing LSU and Alabama in the last two weeks, anything else will feel like a breather. Its defense has been decent against teams not named Alabama or LSU.

Points: The over is 12-4-1 in UT’s last 17 at home.

Stanford Cardinal at USC Trojans (7, 60)

Why Stanford will cover: The Cardinal have covered every game this season, and this is the smallest spread for the squad that ranks No. 3 in scoring and No. 4 in scoring defense.

Why USC will cover: USC has shut down offenses not from Arizona or Arizona State, and has an offense led by a strong pass game that is never out of it. We’ll see what Stanford really has.

Points: If USC gets going offensively, the over could be hit by the end of the third quarter.

Wisconsin Badgers at Ohio State Buckeyes (7, 50.5)

Why Wisconsin will cover: Wisconsin wants to prove it can rebound from the Hail-Mary loss to Michigan State and has the horses to punish OSU. If Wisconsin gets ahead and OSU is forced to rally, the Buckeyes rank just 115th in passing. UW is 8-1 ATS in its last nine.

Why Ohio State will cover: The Buckeyes’ defense has no weaknesses, and if the run game can get established, anything can happen, especially at home.

Points: The under is 8-2 in OSU’s last 10, but the over is 4-0 in UW’s last four.

Southern Mississippi Eagles at UTEP Miners (10, 57)

Why Southern Miss will cover: The Eagles are balanced on both sides, ranking 21st in scoring offense and scoring defense. USM is 5-0 ATS in its last five.

Why UTEP will cover: If the Miners can get their ground game going, they have a chance to win SU. UTEP is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 against teams with winning records.

Points: The under has been hitting for both teams.

Clemson Tigers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (3.5, 63.5)

Why Clemson will cover: The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six and show no signs slowing offensively. Georgia Tech’s offense has been exposed in recent weeks. We’ll see if Clemson can take advantage.

Why Georgia Tech will cover: Georgia Tech can still run the rock, and Clemson ranks 76th at stopping it. Clemson’s main strength – passing – matches up well with Tech’s top defensive strength.

Points: The over is 7-2 in Clemson’s last nine and was 5-0 in GT’s first five before the under has it in the last three. Could see some major points scored.

[StarDust Bum]

College football's best non-BCS conference bets

Over the last five years, few college football teams have been more profitable for bettors than Boise State. Since 2006, the Broncos are 42-26-2 ATS, including a 4-3 ATS record this season.

But the national attention surrounding Boise State’s program, combined with a switch to the Mountain West Conference, has eliminated some of the Broncos’ value. Boise State has been favored by at least 20 points in every game since a season-opening win against Georgia as a 3-point favorite.
The market, it seems, has finally adjusted.

Since Boise State isn’t among the best non-BCS teams against the spread this season, let’s take a look at the teams that are. Perhaps one of them has the potential to be the next Boise State in the years to come.

ARKANSAS STATE (5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS)

If a team wants to go unnoticed by the betting market, the Sun Belt is the place to be. Arkansas State lives in relative obscurity and has continued to get favorable lines despite being 5-2 straight up and 6-1 against the spread.

First-year head coach Hugh Freeze is the primary reason for the Red Wolves’ fast start, and if he keeps it up, he’ll be fielding offers from bigger programs sooner rather than later.

Arkansas State ranks 29th in total defense and 26th in points allowed, holding opponents to 24 points or less in all five of its wins. The Red Wolves won 34-16 as 3.5-point favorites against Florida International last week, and I might be inclined to ride them a bit longer as there still appears to be some value.

TEXAS EL PASO (4-3, 6-1 ATS)

UTEP is covering spreads primarily because it has far exceeded preseason expectations. The Miners had just 11 returning starters and lost all five starting offensive linemen from last year’s team.

The Miners have won six straight games ATS since failing to cover against FCS Stony Brook in the season opener. The first five times UTEP covered, it was listed as an underdog. But last week, the Miners defeated Colorado State 31-17 as 10-point favorites.

UTEP should have a chance to qualify for a bowl game down the stretch, but if you’re looking for value, you probably won’t find it on the Miners going forward.

TEMPLE (5-3, 6-2 ATS)

There hasn’t been any value on Temple since it covered in consecutive weeks against Penn State and Maryland in late September. Temple blasted the Terrapins 38-7 as eight-point underdogs and then soaked up all the media attention that came with it. Of course, that was when we thought Maryland was actually good, which clearly isn’t the case.

Since that win, the Owls are 2-2 ATS and have been favored by eight or more points in every game. Twice they’ve lost outright as 8-point and 12-point favorites, once at home and once on the road.

If anything, look to fade the Owls going forward.

HOUSTON (7-0, 5-2 ATS)

One of the underrated joys of this college football season has been watching how quickly Houston lines get bet up after being posted at the Wynn Las Vegas. Oddsmakers can’t set the Cougars’ lines high enough.

This week, Houston opened as a 26.5-point home favorite against Rice, a line that seemed a few points too high. And yet, it still got bet up by a point. In recent weeks, Houston lines have moved by as many as four or five points.

Case Keenum is an easily recognizable figure and the Cougars’ top-ranked offense is averaging 49.3 points. The public always gravitates to these types of teams, but that doesn’t mean you have to follow. If the unbeaten Cougars hope to keep covering, they’ll have to earn it. Bet Houston only if you are able to get an early line.

UAB (1-6, 5-2 ATS)

The Blazers have covered five straight times and are so undervalued that I’ve spent the last 15 minutes deciding whether or not I should write about them.

Since losing to Tulane 49-10 as 12-point favorites in Week 2, UAB has been an underdog of at least two touchdowns in every game. The Blazers lost by five as 14.5-point dogs at East Carolina and lost by one as a 15.5-point road underdog at Troy.

Last week, the Blazers defeated Central Florida 26-24 as a 16.5-point underdog.

UAB isn’t as bad as its record indicates and has become increasingly competitive against superior opponents in recent weeks. Keep backing the Blazers until the market adjusts.

--

[StarDust Bum]

Top 5 NCAAF Trends

PURD
MICH Over is 8-0-1 in MICH last 9 games following a bye week.

ULLAF
MTENN Over is 7-0-2 in MTENN last 9 games overall.

ARK
VAN Under is 7-0-1 in VAN last 8 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.

BCOLL
MD Under is 8-0 in BCOLL last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.

BCOLL
MD Under is 7-0-1 in BCOLL last 8 conference games.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/27/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
10/26/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/25/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
10/22/11 22-*25-*0 46.81% -*2750 Detail
10/21/11 3-*0-*1 100.00% +*1500 Detail
10/20/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
10/18/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/15/11 33-*31-*3 51.56% -*550 Detail
10/14/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/13/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
10/08/11 29-*19-*0 60.42% +*4050 Detail
10/07/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/06/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
10/01/11 55-*45-*2 55.00% +*2750 Detail
Totals 156-*132-*6 54.17% +5400

Friday, October 28

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Brigham Young - 8:00 PM ET Texas Christian -13.5 500

Texas Christian - Under 56 500

[StarDust Bum]

K-State aims for 8-0 start facing Oklahoma


OKLAHOMA SOONERS (6-1)
at KANSAS STATE WILDCATS (7-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma -13.5, Total: 58.5

Nobody could have predicted that No. 11 Oklahoma would be ranked lower in the AP Poll than No. 10 Kansas State when the Sooners visit Manhattan, KS on Saturday.

Oklahoma allowed 572 yards in a 41-38 home loss to Texas Tech, while K-State upped its record to 7-0 with a 59-21 win at Kansas, thanks to 5 TD (4 rushing, 1 passing) from QB Collin Klein. Two weeks ago, the Wildcats beat that same Texas Tech tech on the road, 41-34, showing the nation that they can also score in bunches. Oklahoma is 7-1 SU in the past eight meetings with KSU, but the Wildcats are 4-3-1 ATS during this span. K-State has six straight ATS wins, and has also covered six in a row as an underdog. OU has failed to cover three of the past four games it has been favored by at least two touchdowns. The pick here is home ‘dog KANSAS STATE.

This pair of three-star FoxSheets trends also side with the Wildcats:

Play On - Home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (KANSAS STATE) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins, after the first month of the season. (71-33 over the last 10 seasons.) (68.3%, +34.7 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - A road team (OKLAHOMA) - after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half. (60-25 over the last 10 seasons.) (70.6%, +32.5 units. Rating = 3*).

The Sooners haven’t lost two straight conference games since 1998. Oklahoma QB Landry Jones is third in the nation in passing yardage (2,589) and also has a streak of 3+ TD passes in five straight games this year, tossing 19 TD and 5 INT during this run. He was 26-of-37 for 294 yards, 4 TD and 0 INT in his only meeting versus the Wildcats in 2009. He threw two of those scoring passes to WR Ryan Broyles. The senior had a couple of streaks snapped in the loss to the Red Raiders, failing to gain 100 yards or score a touchdown for the first time in five contests. The good news for the Sooners ground game is that leading rusher Dominique Whaley is expected back in the starting lineup after missing last week’s game with an illness. Whaley has 627 rushing yards and nine touchdowns in six games this season.

Oklahoma’s passing defense has allowed 237 YPG (78th in nation), but Texas Tech was the only team to throw for 300 on the Sooners. They have held six of their seven opponents under 150 rushing yards and are allowing a mere 2.6 yards per carry in the past four contests. Since forcing five turnovers against Texas, Oklahoma has failed to take the ball away in its past two games.

Speaking of turnovers, K-State has a total of two offensive turnovers in the past six games, posing a +11 TO margin during this stretch. Klein’s improvement throughout the season has been impressive. He has scored a rushing touchdown in six straight games to give him 14 on the season. He has also completed 66% of his passes in the past three weeks after a mere 55% rate in the first four games of the year. Sophomore RB John Hubert is also having a big year with 637 rushing yards on 5.2 YPC.

The KSU run defense has not allowed a team to reach 140 rushing yards this year, holding Kansas to 76 yards on 37 carries (2.1 YPC) last week. The passing defense has been exposed by good offenses though. Baylor threw for 346 yards and Texas Tech piled up 461 yards against the Wildcats this year.

[StarDust Bum]

Georgia-Florida resume rivalry in Jacksonville

GEORGIA BULLDOGS (5-2)
vs. FLORIDA GATORS (4-3)

Jacksonville Municipal Stadium - Jacksonville, FL
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Georgia -3, Total 48.5

No. 22 Georgia and slumping Florida square off for their yearly meeting in Jacksonville, FL on Saturday afternoon.

The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party has been an annual celebration for Florida, which has won 11 of the past 13 meetings (8-4-1 ATS) with Georgia. But currently, it’s the Gators that are doing the losing (three straight SU and ATS defeats), while the Bulldogs are riding a five-game win streak (4-1 ATS). The one non-cover was last week’s 33-28 win at Vanderbilt behind 326 yards and 3 TD from Aaron Murray. The Gators offense has been dreadful, scoring a total of 27 points during the three-game skid, but QB John Brantley (ankle) is expected to return to the field. Turnovers could go a long way in determining the winner here. Florida’s last defensive turnover occurred more than 13 quarters ago, and Georgia has only two multi-TO games this year. The Gators offense has 10 giveaways in the past four weeks, while Georgia’s defense has nine takeaways in its past four contests. The pick here is GEORGIA.

This FoxSheets trend also sides with the Bulldogs:

Mark Richt is 30-19 ATS (61.2%, +9.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of GEORGIA. The average score was GEORGIA 26.7, OPPONENT 22.0.

Murray is eager to avenge last year’s 34-31 loss to Florida when he tossed three interceptions to ruin a 313-yard, 3-TD effort. The sophomore has thrown multiple touchdown passes in six of his seven games this season, totaling 16 TD and 7 INT on the year. RB Isaiah Crowell used the bye week to rest his injured wrist and he should be able to start this rivalry game. The freshman has three 100-yard games against SEC opponents already, but has been held to 93 yards on 29 carries (3.2 YPC) in the past two games.

Georgia’s defense ranks sixth in the country in yardage (273 total YPG) and has been especially proficient in defending opponents’ aerial attacks. The Bulldogs rank sixth in passing efficiency defense (97.90) and ninth in passing yardage (171 YPG).

Florida has not lost four straight games since 1988. Brantley will certainly give his team a boost, but he did not have a great game in Jacksonville last year, completing 16-of-25 passes for 193 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. He has not reached 230 passing yards in any of his five games, but Brantley’s 9.2 yards per attempt ratio is pretty strong. The bye week also helped Jeff Demps heal from his bum ankle. Demps is averaging 8.3 YPC this season and he had 81 total yards and a touchdown against the Bulldogs last year. The Gators are hopeful Demps will inject some life into a ground game that has 194 rushing yards (64.7 per game) in its past three contests. Leading rusher Chris Rainey (500 rush yds) has only 89 yards (2.2 YPC) since piling up three straight 100-yard games earlier in the year. But Rainey had 241 all-purpose yards in last year’s meeting with Georgia, and could be a huge factor again on Saturday.

Other than its lack of turnovers, Florida’s defense has been mostly good this year. The Gators allowed a ton of yards to the nation’s top two teams (Alabama and LSU), but held Auburn to 278 total yards last week.

[StarDust Bum]

Baylor-Oklahoma State meet for potential shootout

BAYLOR BEARS (4-2)
at OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (7-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma State -13.5, Total: 79

Superstar quarterbacks will be on display as Baylor’s Robert Griffin III takes on Oklahoma State’s Brandon Weeden.

Griffin III is third in the nation with 374 total YPG while Weeden is eighth with 336 YPG. Two of the nation’s elite receivers will also be showcasing their stuff. Baylor WR Kendall Wright ranks fifth in the nation with 126 receiving YPG, while OSU star wideout Justin Blackmon is averaging 8.7 catches per game (sixth in FBS). Blackmon missed the second half of last game with concussion-like symptoms, but he is expected to start on Saturday. The Cowboys have won 14 of the past 15 meetings, including outscoring the Bears 234-79 during a five-game series win streak. They will rack up plenty of points against Baylor’s 97th-ranked defense (425 YPG) on Saturday afternoon. The pick here is OKLAHOMA STATE to win and cover.

This four-star FoxSheets trend also supports the Cowboys:

OKLAHOMA STATE is 12-1 ATS (92.3%, +10.9 Units) after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OKLAHOMA STATE 42.0, OPPONENT 24.3 - (Rating = 4*).

Although the total is about as big a number as you’ll see, the FoxSheets provide a rare SIX-star trend urging bettors to take the OVER.

OKLAHOMA STATE is 18-1 OVER (94.7%, +16.9 Units) in home games after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. The average score was OKLAHOMA STATE 40.6, OPPONENT 25.5 - (Rating = 6*).

The Bears have the nation’s No. 2 offense, averaging 550 yards per game. Griffin III leads the country in passing efficiency (22 TD, 2 INT) and is third in total offense with 374 yards per game. Although his team lost big in its last game to Texas A&M two weeks ago (55-28), Griffin III threw for 430 yards and three touchdowns in the defeat. The Baylor QB has not been very good in two career starts versus Oklahoma State though, completing 45-of-75 passes for 429 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. Wright is actually slumping a bit after starting the season off with four 100-yard receiving efforts, which included 201 yards at Kansas State. He has failed to reach 70 yards in each of the past two games, although he has scored in every contest this season (9 total TD). The Bears aren’t thought of as a great running team, but they have had some huge games, rushing for 391 versus Iowa State, 306 versus Rice and 266 versus Stephen F. Austin. It has been a different story on the road though, as Baylor rushed for 83 yards (2.8 YPC) at Kansas State and gained just 50 yards (1.6 YPC) at Texas A&M two weeks ago. Senior Terrance Ganaway leads the team with 570 yards and seven scores, but was held to 34 yards on 16 carries against the Aggies.

The Bears rushing defense has been dreadful all year (186 YPG, 90th in nation), allowing 206 YPG to their five FBS opponents. The passing defense has been just as terrible (240 YPG, 84th in nation), which increases to 263 YPG if you don’t include FCS opponent Stephen F. Austin.

Weeden continues to impress (11 TD, 1 INT in past five games) and he certainly impressed Baylor when he faced them last year, connecting on 34-of-42 passes (81%) for 435 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT. Blackmon (30 TD in his past 19 games) caught 13 of those passes for 173 yards and a touchdown, and also ran for a 69-yard score in that 55-28 demolition of the Bears. The Cowboys also know how to run the football with five games of 170+ rushing yards this season. Joseph Randle rushed for 138 yards on just 14 carries last week, finding the end zone three times. Jeremy Smith also had a nice game with 71 yards on 13 attempts (5.5 YPC). The duo now has 1,115 yards (6.0 YPC) and 19 TD this season.

Oklahoma State leads the nation in turnover margin (+2.1 per game), which has helped compensate for a defense allowing 432 YPG (103rd in nation). The Cowboys do a nice job rushing the QB though, with 2.9 sacks per game (16th in nation) and 7.7 Tackles For Loss per game (15th in FBS).

[StarDust Bum]

USC tries to end Stanford's 15-game win streak

STANFORD CARDINAL (7-0)
at USC TROJANS (6-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Stanford -7.5, Total: 59.5

No. 4 Stanford puts the nation’s longest win streak to a stiff test when it visits No. 20 USC on Saturday night.

Stanford has won 15 straight games, including 25-point victories in each of the past 10 contests. The Cardinal ran all over Washington last week (school-record 446 yards), and Andrew Luck will certainly be able to pick apart USC’s 104th-ranked pass defense (265 YPG) to add to his gaudy career numbers against the Trojans: 32-of-46, 429 yards, 5 TD, 0 INT. Stanford’s win streak began last year when it edged USC on a last-second field goal. Defensively, the Cardinal rank in nation’s top-5 in scoring (12.6 PPG), rushing (76 YPG), sacks (3.6 per game) and Tackles For Loss (8.1 per game), which is enough to make USC QB Matt Barkley very uncomfortable in the pocket. STANFORD will win this game by at least two touchdowns.

This rare six-star FoxSheets trend also supports the Cardinal:

STANFORD is 12-0 ATS (+12.0 Units) after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was STANFORD 45.3, OPPONENT 13.3 - (Rating = 6*).

Stanford ranks second in the nation in scoring at 48.6 PPG and has put up a healthy 47.8 PPG in its five conference tilts. The Cardinal also rank ninth in the nation with 504 total YPG. Luck, who is given the responsibility to call most of the plays, has been consistently excellent all year, and now has 10 straight games with at least two touchdown passes. For the season, Luck is completing 72% of his passes for 270 passing YPG, 20 TD and 3 INT. Four players have at least 300 receiving yards, but none has more than 400. Coby Fleener leads the team with 384 yards and 7 TD, while Chris Owusu has a team-high 30 catches. RB Stepfan Taylor has rushed for 561 yards (7.1 YPC) with five total TD in the past five games, including 138 on just 10 carries against Washington. Tyler Gaffney had 117 yards on nine carries last week and Anthony Wilkerson added 93 rushing yards (6.6 YPC) and two touchdowns.

Although Washington ran up 172 yards on Stanford in last week’s 65-21 blowout, the Cardinal have held five opponents to 60 rushing yards or less. The passing defense has also improved, allowing 218 YPG in the past four weeks.

USC is fresh off impressive road wins at Cal (30-9) and Notre Dame (31-17). The Trojans continue to beat teams through the air with QB Matt Barkley (19 TD, 4 INT) and star WR Robert Woods, who ranks second in the nation with 72 catches and 129 receiving YPG. Woods has been bothered by an ankle injury, but he is expected to start Saturday night. The key to this game will be whether the RB duo of Marc Tyler and Curtis McNeal can balance the passing attack with a decent ground game. USC rolled up 219 rushing yards at Notre Dame, as the pair combined for 185 yards on 37 carries (5.0 YPC).

The Trojans are getting their defensive rankings to more respectable levels after the past two weeks (43rd in yardage at 356 YPG, T-38th in scoring at 22.6 PPG) because the defense is figuring out how to create turnovers. After just three takeaways in the first four games of the season, USC has forced 10 TO in the past three weeks. However, Stanford has only given the ball up five times in its seven games this year.

[StarDust Bum]

No. 9 Michigan St. travels to No. 13 Nebraska

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (6-1)
at NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (6-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Nebraska -4, Total: 48.5

No. 9 Michigan State tries to ride momentum of last week’s Hail Mary win for a fifth straight victory when it takes on No. 13 Nebraska for the first time since the 2003 Alamo Bowl.

The Huskers won that bowl game 17-3, but this game figures to be much higher scoring with Nebraska’s 37.6 PPG and MSU’s 65 points in the past two weeks. Spartans QB Kirk Cousins has 5 TD and 0 INT in his past two games, while the Huskers are led by bruising RB Rex Burkhead, who has rumbled for 622 yards and 8 total TD in his past five contests. Burkhead and QB Taylor Martinez (9 rushing TD) should be able to eat up yardage against an MSU run defense that surrendered 220 rushing yards to Wisconsin last week. The pick here is NEBRASKA to win and cover.

This pair of three-star FoxSheets trends also back the Huskers:

NEBRASKA is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in home games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game since 1992. The average score was NEBRASKA 35.9, OPPONENT 19.7 - (Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Road underdogs (MICHIGAN STATE) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. (27-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.8%, +20.4 units. Rating = 3*).

Cousins has had a strong senior season, but he has tossed three interceptions in two road games this year, leading his team to just 23 points in these two away contests. He continues to lean heavily on WR B.J. Cunningham whose 723 receiving yards comprise 41% of his team’s passing offense. He has four 100-yard receiving games on the season, but has yet to string two of them in a row. The ground game has been wildly inconsistent in the past five weeks, rushing for 29, 197, 71, 213 and 109 yards last week versus Wisconsin. Edwin Baker leads the team with 434 rushing yards while Le’Veon Bell has 374 yards and a team-high six touchdowns. Bell is coming off a tough game versus the Badgers, gaining a meager 15 yards on 11 carries.

Despite the 443 yards and 31 points allowed to Wisconsin, Michigan State still ranks second in the nation in total defense (223 YPG), sixth in sacks (3.4 per game) and seventh in scoring defense (13.7 PPG). The Spartans are expected to have stud DE William Gholston back on the field after he served his one-game suspension for throwing a punch in the Michigan game.

Michigan State is 5-2 ATS this year, while Nebraska is just 2-5 ATS. Martinez has averaged 5.8 yards per carry this year, rushing for 636 yards and nine scores. He just hasn’t developed enough as a passer though, completing only 55 percent of his passes with 7 TD and 6 INT. The Huskers really don’t have a go-to receiver, as no player on the roster has more than 15 catches or 250 receiving yards on the year. Luckily for the offense, Burkhead has scored in every game this year, totaling 11 TD in seven games.

The Blackshirts haven’t been as imposing as Nebraska defenses usually are. The Huskers rank 54th in scoring defense (25.3 PPG), which includes allowing 25+ points four times this season. Most of the problems stem from an underachieving defensive line that is 101st in the country in sacks (1.3 per game) and 114th in Tackles For Loss (3.9 per game). The loss of star DL Jared Crick for the season (pectoral) could have a lasting effect on this unit.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday, October 29

Game Score Status Pick Amount

North Carolina State - 12:00 PM ET Florida State -18.5 500
Florida State -

Northwestern - 12:00 PM ET Over 54 500
Indiana - Over 62.5 500

Syracuse - 12:00 PM ET Louisville -3 500
Louisville - Under 44 500

Purdue - 12:00 PM ET Purdue +14 500
Michigan - Over 54 500

Michigan State - 12:00 PM ET Michigan State +4 500
Nebraska -

Alabama-Birmingham - 12:00 PM ET Marshall -5.5 500
Marshall -

Central Michigan - 12:00 PM ET Akron +7 500
Akron - Over 51 500

Missouri - 12:00 PM ET Missouri +10 500
Texas A&M - Over 63.5 500

Arkansas - 12:21 PM ET Vanderbilt +8.5 500
Vanderbilt -

Virginia Tech - 12:30 PM ET Virginia Tech -14.5 500
Duke -

Bowling Green - 1:00 PM ET Kent State +3.5 500
Kent State - Over 39.5 500

Ball State - 2:00 PM ET Ball State +12.5 500
Western Michigan -

Air Force - 2:00 PM ET Air Force -30.5 500
New Mexico - Under 63 500

Boston College - 3:00 PM ET Maryland -6.5 500
Maryland - Under 48.5 500

Washington State - 3:00 PM ET Washington State +34.5 500
Oregon -

Florida - 3:30 PM ET Florida +3 500
Georgia -

Iowa - 3:30 PM ET Iowa -15.5 500
Minnesota

Tulane - 3:30 PM ET East Carolina -16.5 500
East Carolina -

Wake Forest - 3:30 PM ET Wake Forest +7 500
North Carolina -

West Virginia - 3:30 PM ET West Virginia -6.5 500
Rutgers -

Buffalo - 3:30 PM ET Wake Forest +7 500
Miami (Ohio) -

Baylor - 3:30 PM ET Oklahoma State -14 500
Oklahoma State -

Southern Methodist - 3:30 PM ET Southern Methodist +2.5 500
Tulsa - Over 58 500

Illinois - 3:30 PM ET Illinois +5 500
Penn State - Under 39 500

Oklahoma - 3:30 PM ET Kansas State +13 500
Kansas State -

Western Kentucky - 3:30 PM ET Western Kentucky +6 500
UL Monroe - Over 47.5 500

Navy - 3:30 PM ET Navy +23 500
Notre Dame -

Fordham - 3:30 PM ET Army -31 500
Army -

Memphis - 4:00 PM ET Central Florida -29.5 500
Central Florida -

San Jose State - 4:00 PM ET San Jose State +7 500
Louisiana Tech -

Hawaii - 5:00 PM ET Hawaii -7 500
Idaho -

Colorado State - 6:00 PM ET Colorado State -2.5 500
UNLV -

Colorado - 6:30 PM ET Arizona State -31.5 500
Arizona State -


Check back later for the evening games.......

[Kaptain]

get em BUM.....have a good day.....bring in a bunch of them C NOTES my man