The Bum's CFB Week # 9 Best Bets !

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Don Best Linemakers Poll Vs BCS Standings

Entering the ninth week of the college football season, the latest Don Best Linemakers Poll is out and there are key differences as always when compared to the BCS Standings.

First off, what exactly is the poll and how is it put together by Kenny White?

It is a power poll based on the actual strength of teams rather than popularity and does not easily waver with a single loss or win. In a hypothetical situation where every school in the nation played each other, home and away, the rankings are where the team’s records would stack up.

Also, the ratings assigned to teams can be used to create a line for any matchup.

Right now in the BCS Standings, the LSU Tigers are ranked No. 1 with the Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 2. However, the DB Poll has backed ‘Bama all year by placing them in the first spot with LSU currently No. 2.

The matchup between these heavyweights has been brewing all season long and on November 5, the Tigers will be in Tuscaloosa to battle the Tide in a critical game for the SEC, the BCS and the Linemakers Poll.

As for the Oregon Ducks, they do have one loss this season but it was opening week on a neutral field against LSU. With that loss they are still a top-5 ranked team according to White, and the Ducks are No. 7 in the BCS and on the AP. The two rankings almost agree with each other here, but there is some disagreement with a couple of undefeated squads.

Quarterback Andrew Luck and the Stanford Cardinal are No. 3 on the Don Best Poll while they are No. 6 in the BCS behind Oklahoma State, Boise State and Clemson. Stanford has won and covered every single week in 2011 sitting at 7-0 straight up and against the spread.

For a shot at a national title, the Cardinal will have to beat both Oregon and USC. Kenny sees this program as being worthy of the top-5 as illustrated in the rankings.

Then there is Kansas State, whose place on the polls is one of the most significant differences between the two. Sitting undefeated at 7-0, the Wildcats are No. 8 in the BCS. On the Linemakers Poll, however, the Wildcats are not even top-20, sitting just outside at No. 21.

K-State has even moved up to earn that spot with a schedule that has worked out favorably for the 'Cats. This week they will host an Oklahoma squad coming off of its first loss of the season.

The weekly swings in the BCS are easily explained due to 'human polls' – the USA Today coaches poll and Harris Poll – accounting for two-thirds of the process. The Don Best Linemakers Poll removes the subjectivity and emotions following a big loss or big win, focusing instead on objective team and player performances.


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DON BEST LINEMAKERS POLL - NCAA College Football Rankings
RANK TEAM RATING BCS
1 Alabama 123.5 2
2 LSU 121.9 1
3 Stanford 120.6 6
4 Oklahoma State 119.0 3
5 Oregon 118.2 7
6 Boise State 118.0 4
7 Oklahoma 117.8 9
8 Wisconsin 117.1 15
9 Clemson 114.5 5
10 Arkansas 113.6 10
11 Michigan State 112.4 11
12 Florida State 112.0 NR
13 Georgia 111.7 22
T-14 Michigan 111.5 18
T-14 Texas A&M 111.5 16
16 Virginia Tech 111.4 12
T-17 Nebraska 110.5 14
T-17 Arizona State 110.5 21
19 Notre Dame 110.4 NR
20 Southern California 109.6 NR
21 Kansas State 109.0 8
22 Miami 108.8 NR
23 Florida 108.7 NR
T-24 Houston 108.6 17
T-24 Cincinnati 108.6 NR
26 Penn State 108.5 19
T-27 Texas 108.1 24
T-27 West Virginia 108.1 25
29 South Carolina 108.0 13
30 Ohio State 107.9 NR
Don Best Linemakers Poll - Updated October 24, 2011

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Pac 12 Notebook

October 25, 2011

Week Eight Rewind

Blowout City!

Every game that featured Pac 12 teams ended up being horribly non-competitive. The smallest margin of victory was USC's 14-point non-conference win at Notre Dame.

Even worse, the five conference games were decided by 36, 43, 24, 44 and 23 points. Good times.

Action got underway Thursday with Arizona blowing away UCLA 48-12. After the Bruins closed the gap to 14-7 in the first quarter, Arizona ran off 34 unanswered points to run away with the game. The Wildcats outgained UCLA 573-323 and they had their best rushing performance of the season with 254 yards, easily eclipsing their previous best of 129 yards.

Oregon scored touchdowns on its first four possessions, all in the first quarter as it dominated the Buffaloes 45-2. The Ducks racked up 527 total yards including 371 yards rushing on 48 carries (7.7 ypc). They have rushed for at least 327 yards in each of their last five games. Colorado avoided its first home shutout since 1986 with a third quarter safety.

The first quarter featured two punts by each team but then California erupted for 20 second quarter points and eventually built a 34-0 lead before the Utes scored their 10 points in garbage time. The Golden Bears held Utah to just 178 total yards including 13 yards rushing. The Utes had only 58 total yards through three quarters.

USC outgained Notre Dame 443-267 and the Irish hurt themselves with three turnovers. Notre Dame was trailing 17-10 and was driving for the game-tying touchdown but fumbled and the Trojans returned it 80 yards for a touchdown. The Irish again fought back and down a touchdown, fumbled at their own 18 and USC punched it in.

Stanford rolled again to improve to a perfect 7-0 ATS as it rushed for a school record 446 yards on 44 carries (10.1 ypc). After Washington cut the lead to 17-14 in the second quarter, the Cardinal scored on a 70-yard run on the very next play to start of a run of 31 unanswered points. Stanford has won 15 straight games and has not trailed this season.

Last and certainly least, the Beavers went into Seattle and destroyed the Cougars by 23 points. Oregon State won the yardage battle 551-315 and scored on eight of its first nine possessions. Washington State tied the game at 14 apiece early in the second quarter but the Beavers ran off 20 unanswered points to pull away.

Brewhaha

Not only was the Thursday game between UCLA and Arizona an ugly matchup, it got uglier right before halftime.

A streaker came onto the field with four seconds remaining in the first half which caused a delay in the game and that gave enough time for Bruins wide receiver Taylor Embree and Arizona cornerback Shaquille Richardson to start fighting. The benches cleared and a melee ensued.

Order was eventually restored but both teams will suffer the consequences.

Along with Embree, UCLA has lost receivers Randall Carroll, Ricky Marvay and Shaqelle Evans for this week's game against California. The good news is that the two top receivers were not lost but depth will be an issue.

Defensive tackle Cassius Marsh was suspended two games.

For Arizona, Richardson and fellow cornerback Jourdon Grandon were suspended for this week's game at Washington while cornerbacks Mark Watley and Lyle Brown will have to sit out the first half.

The Seat is Getting Hotter

Speaking of UCLA, guess who is back on the hot seat?

Not only did Rick Neuheisel lose badly against Arizona, he lost his team during the fight that took place against the Wildcats.

"It's definitely a step in the wrong direction," Neuheisel said. "I still hold out my feeling we can and will turn the corner."

Good luck Rick.

The ugly loss to Oregon St. did not help matters for Washington St. head coach Paul Wulff. He posted a 5-32 record in his first three years but the season started well this year as the Cougars opened 3-1 but they have dropped three straight, the last two by a combined 53 points.

You can make it four straight losses after this weekend as they head to Eugene as five-touchdown underdogs to the Ducks.

Game of the Week

Stanford passed a small test at home against Washington and now it gets tougher with a trip to USC this weekend. The Cardinal have won 15 straight games since losing at Oregon last year and with the way the Trojans looked at Notre Dame last week, this is certainly no gimmie.

Stanford moved from No. 8 to No. 6 in the BCS Standings and this would be its first real signature win of the season which would help improve that ranking even more. The Cardinal have won the last two meetings against USC including a 34-point drubbing the last time they played in Southern California two years ago.

Stanford is a 7.5-point favorite at most sports books.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 9

October 25, 2011



Thursday, Oct. 27
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

VIRGINIA at MIAMI-FLORIDA...Cavs just 1-5 vs. line last six on road, although they did score upset over Canes at Charlottesville LY. Slight to Miami, based on team trends.

RICE at HOUSTON...Rice 1-4 SU but 4-1 vs. line last five vs. cross-town rival Cougars. UH 4-0 vs. points at Robertson Stadium TY, and if throwing out injury-plagued 2010 when 1-4-1 vs. line at home, Cougs 8-0 last 8 and 11-1 vs. spread last 12 as host. Rice only 2-7 vs. points last nine as visitor but 7-1 last 8 as dog within Houston city limits. Slight to UH, based on home trend.




Friday, Oct. 28
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

BYU at TCU (Cowboys Stadium, Arlington)...TCU has won last 3 SU vs. BYU and not allowed more than 7 points in any of the games (101-17 total score). Frogs 3-1 vs. line last four meetings. Cougs 6-1 vs. line, however, last seven away from Provo , and covered last five as dog. Slight to BYU, based on current trends.




Saturday, Oct. 29
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

MISSISSIPPI STATE at KENTUCKY...Cats 4-9 vs. spread last 13 on board since mid 2010. UK just 4-12 against line last 16 as SEC host. MSU has won and covered last two visits to Lexington. MSU, based on recent UK woes.

UAB at MARSHALL...UAB on surprising five-game cover streak. Blazers 6-3 against number last nine on road. Herd just 2-4 vs. spread as chalk since LY, but has won and covered last two years vs. UAB. UAB, based on recent trends.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at AKRON...CMU 1-7 vs. line TY, now 3-13 vs. spread last 15 for Dan Enos. Chips also 1-5 last 6 as chalk. Slight to Akron, based on recent CMU woes.

BALL STATE at WESTERN MICHIGAN...Ball State 24-8 vs. line last 32 reg. season away from home, but 2-2 in role TY. Cards 9-1 vs. spread last 10 as MAC road dog. Ball had covered 5 of 6 in series prior to LY's 45-16 loss. Broncos have won and covered last five at Waldo Stadium, however. Slight to Ball State, based on extended road mark.

WAKE FOREST at NORTH CAROLINA...Wake 2-7 vs. spread last 9 away, but Heels only 2-5 against number last 7 at Chapel Hill. Slight to Wake, based on team trends.

NC STATE at FLORIDA STATE...Wolfpack has covered last six in series and is unbelievable 9-0-1 vs. spread last 10 in series! Tom O'Brien 1-1 as dog TY and 23-12-1 in role since arriving at NCS in 2007. NCS, based on team trends.

CLEMSON at GEORGIA TECH...Ugh! Dabo has covered last six TY and is 7-1 vs. line in 2011. Dabo has also covered last four as visitor. Jackets have dropped last three vs. spread after covering first five TY. Slight to Clemson, based on recent trends.

IOWA at MINNESOTA...Floyd of Rosedale! Gophers have covered 4 of last 5 Floyd battles, but they've dropped last 4 vs. line TY. Iowa no covers last five as reg.-season visitor. Slight to Iowa, based on current trends.

MICHIGAN STATE at NEBRASKA...Huskers no covers first four at home TY and now 2-8 vs. line last 10 at Lincoln. Dantonio just 3-10 his last 13 as dog (1-1 TY). Dantonio 15-10 vs. spread away from East Lansing since 2007. Slight to MSU, based team trends.

NORTHWESTERN at INDIANA...Hoosiers have covered last three in series. Fitzgerald 2-7 as road chalk since 2007, Cats 5-19 last 24 as chalk overall. IU on 6-1 spread uptick at Bloomington. Indiana, based on series and team trends.

PURDUE at MICHIGAN...Purdue has covered last three in series, and Boilermakers slightly rallying vs. number with 4-1 mark last 5 TY. Wolverines were 2-9 vs. spread last 11 as host vs. FBS foes prior to TY. Slight to Purdue, based on series trends.

ILLINOIS at PENN STATE...Zook 4-1 vs. line against Shades since 2006. Zook 11-5 last 16 as dog. Shades 2-6 vs. spread TY and 2-8 last 10 vs. line since late 2010. Illinois, based on team and series trends.

VIRGINIA TECH at DUKE...Beamer has had at least one three-game or more cover streak in eight of the past ten seasons. Beamer 32-14 vs. line away from home since 2004, 23-10 last 33 as road chalk. VT, based on team trends.

WEST VIRGINIA at RUTGERS...Road team 5-0-1 vs. line last six meetings. Mountaineers just 4-3 vs. line after SU loss since 2009 and have won five straight at East Brunswick. Slight to WVU, based on series road trends.

SYRACUSE at LOUISVILLE...Syracuse had covered five straight in series prior to LY's 28-20 loss. Cuse was 6-1 vs. line away from home LY but is 0-2 in role to date TY. Cards 8-19 vs. points at home post-Bobby Petrino (since 2007) and have failed to cover last three hosting Orange. Syracuse, based on team and series trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE at MARYLAND...Spaziani has lost and failed to cover 3 of last 4 vs. Maryland. Edsall only 2-5 vs. line TY and has dropped last four spread decisions at College Park, but he was 19-6 his last 25 vs. line as host at UConn. Slight to Maryland, based on series trends.

OLE MISS at AUBURN...Houston Nutt 8-2 as road dog since arriving at Oxford in 2008. Tigers 0-2 laying DDs this season for Chizik. Ole Miss, based on team trends.

ARKANSAS at VANDERBILT...Commodores have covered first two SEC home games TY after dropping previous 10 vs. number. Petrino 25-11 vs. line last 36 spread decisions. Slight to Arkansas, based on extended trends.

KANSAS at TEXAS...Jayhawks 2-8 vs. line the last ten years in game following Kansas State. KU 3-9 vs. number last 12 away from home, and no covers last three in series vs. Longhorns. Mack only 2-8 vs. line at Austin since beating KU by 51-20 count in 2009. Texas, based on KU negatives.

BOWLING GREEN at KENT STATE...BG 22-11 vs. spread away since 2007. Hazell only 1-6 vs. line in 2011, and Flashes 2-9 last 11, 4-13 last 17 vs. number since early 2010. Revenge for BG after 30-6 loss LY. BG, based on team trends.

AIR FORCE at NEW MEXICO...Lobos 11-20 vs. line since 2009, 5-10 at home vs. line against FBS foes since 2009. Falcs had covered six straight vs. UNM prior to LY's 48-23 win but no cover. Air Force, based on team and series trends.

SMU at TULSA...SMU had covered six straight in series prior to LY's 21-18 win and non-cover in Dallas. SMU, based on extended series trends.

COLORADO at ARIZONA STATE...CU no covers last 5 TY. ASU 12-4 vs. line last 16 vs. FBS foes. ASU, based on team trends.

TULANE at EAST CAROLINA...Wave on 9-25-1 spread slide since late 2008, but now moving on post-Bob Toledo. Slight to ECU, based on Tulane negatives.

MISSOURI at TEXAS A&M...Pinkel 4-1 as dog the past two years after 3-6 mark as "short" the previous three years. Mizzou 12-6 vs. spread as true visitor since 2007. Aggies 15-6 vs. line last 21 at home and in revenge mode after 30-9 loss to Tigers LY. Slight to A&M, based on team trends.

IOWA STATE at TEXAS TECH...Revenge for TT after 52-38 loss at Ames LY, and Tuberville 5-2 vs. line last seven at Lubbock. Slight to TT, based on recent trends.

BUFFALO at MIAMI-OHIO...Buffalo had covered four straight in series until Miami's 21-9 win LY. Red Hawks 4-12 last 16 as chalk (though 4-2 last 6). Slight to UB, based on extended trends.

NAVY at NOTRE DAME...Midshipmen have won 3 of last 4 SU vs. Irish after record 43-game series losing streak between 1964-2006. Mids, however, have made a habit out of covering at South Bend, covering 10 straight visits since 1991. Mids 2-0 as dog TY, 11-2 in role since '09. Irish 11-26-3 vs. line at home since late '05. Navy, based on team and series trends.

GEORGIA vs. FLORIDA (at Jacksonville)...Gators are 17-3 SU and 13-6-1 vs. line in what used to be the World's Biggest Outdoor Cocktail Party. Florida no wins or covers last three TY. Slight to Florida, based on extended series trends.

SAN JOSE STATE at LOUISIANA TECH...SJS covers in last three and five of last six TY. But LT is 9-4 vs. line last 13 at Ruston vs. FBS foes, and 31-17 vs. spread at Joe Aillet Stadium since 2000. LT, based on extended trends.

MEMPHIS at UCF...UCF fading with no covers last 5 TY after O'Leary's 22-6 spread mark in previous 28 on board. Hard to like Memphis, however, and its 10-22 spread mark last 31 on board. UCF, based on extended trends.

HAWAII at IDAHO...Idaho 1-6 vs. line last 7 vs. Hawaii since 2004. Vandals have now dropped last nine vs. line against WAC foes at Kibbie Dome. Hawaii, based on Idaho home WAC woes.

COLORADO STATE at UNLV...Rebs are 6-1 vs. spread at Sam Boyd Stadium vs. FBS foes since Bobby Hauck took over LY. Home teams are 16-2 vs. spread in UNLV games vs. FBS foes since LY. CSU 1-8 vs. line last 9 on board, 7-18 last 25 overall, and 3-12 last 15 away. UNLV, based on team trends.

OREGON STATE at UTAH...Utes now no covers last five at Salt Lake City since late LY. Mike Riley 21-7 last 28 as dog. OSU, based on team trends.

CAL at UCLA...Neuheisel 0-3 SU and vs. line against Tedford, no result closer than 19 points. Neuheisel 5-14 vs. line since 2010, and 1-9 last 10 on board. Cal 0-3 vs. line away TY and 10-21 last 31 in role. Cal, based on series trends and UCLA woes.

ARIZONA at WASHINGTON...Huskies 9-2 SU and vs. spread last 11 since late 2010. Cats only 2-5 vs. line last 7 away. UW, based on recent trends.

WASHINGTON STATE at OREGON...Ducks have won last four in series by wide margins but didn't cover LY at Pullman. Ducks 9-3 vs line last 12 vs. Pac-12 foes at Eugene. Slight to UO, based on team trends.

SOUTH CAROLINA at TENNESSEE...UT has covered 4 of last 5 in series, although Vols just 2-6 vs. spread since late 2010. Gamecocks just 4-9 vs. line last 13 away from Columbia. Slight to UT, based on series trends.

OKLAHOMA at KANSAS STATE...Note that Bill Snyder is 4-1 vs. line his last five against Bob Stoops. KSU on 6-game cover streak TY and Snyder now 12-5 as dog since returning to Wildcat sidelines in 2009. KSU, based on Bill Snyder trends

BAYLOR at OKLAHOMA STATE...OSU has annihilated Baylor each of the past five seasons. Gundy 16-4 vs. line since 2010, although surprisingly 6-4 at home compared to 10-0 away! Bears 0-2 SU and vs. line away TY and 3-7 against number last 10 away from home. OSU, based on team and series trends.

WISCONSIN at OHIO STATE...Even with MSU loss, Bielema 12-2 vs. line since mid 2010. Wisconsin, based on team trends.

SOUTHERN MISS at UTEP...Miners on surprising 6-game cover streak at moment, and UTEP 9-4 vs. spread as Sun Bowl dog since Mike Price arrived in 2004. USM has covered last 5 TY and 8-3 last 11 on board since late 2010. UTEP, based on team trends.

STANFORD at SOUTHERN CAL...Stanford actually 4-3 SU and 5-1 vs. line last 6 at Coliseum since 2009. Tree was 3-2 SU and 4-1 vs. line at Coliseum against Pete Carroll. Tree on 10-game cover streak and 12-1 last 13 vs. spread. Kiffin just 2-7-1 vs. spread as host since LY. Stanford, based on team trends.

NEVADA at NEW MEXICO STATE...DeWayne Walker 3-12 vs. line at Las Cruces since 2009, though Aggies on 4-game cover streak at moment. Nevada, based on team trends.

WYOMING at SAN DIEGO STATE...Aztecs 6-3 against points at home since LY (2-1 TY). Wyoming 10-5 vs. line away since Dave Christensen arrived in 2009. Slight to Wyo, based on team trends.




Added Games
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

WESTERN KENTUCKY at UL-MONROE...WKU has covered four in a row TY and has also covered all three away from home, now 6-1 vs. line last 7 on road. WKU, based on team trends.

NORTH TEXAS at ARKANSAS STATE...ASU now 6-1 vs. line TY including 3-0 at Jonesboro, Red Wolves also 7-2 last 9 as chalk since LY. Surprising UNT has covered 5 of last 6 TY. Slight to ASU, based on team trends.

UK-LAFAYETTE at MIDDLE TENNESSEE...ULL 9-1 vs. line last 10 away from Cajun Field. MTSU 2-7 vs. line at Jonesboro since LY. ULL, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

College Notebook

October 25, 2011

Arizona State...Check status of leading rusher Cameron Marshall (491 YR; ankle) and key OL anchor, C Garth Gerhart (ankle), for Saturday's game vs. Colorado.

Arizona...Wildcats broke a 10-game SU losing streak vs. FBS foes with last Thursday's 48-12 romp past UCLA in Tucson in first game for interim HC Tim Kish. A melee at the end of the first half has resulted in numerous suspensions for the Cats, including CB Shaquille Richardson & Jourdon Graham, both expected to miss this week's game at Washington, and DB Mark Watley, expected to be suspended for the first half vs. the Huskies. Cats are already thin in 2ndary with CB Trevon Wade nursing a shoulder injury.

Army...QB Trent Steelman left in the first half of last week's 44-21 loss at Vanderbilt with a leg injury. West Point option did not move as efficiently thereafter with backups Max Jenkins and Angel Santiago taking snaps vs. Commodores, who outrushed the Black Knights.

Auburn...Tigers are still minus leading pass catcher, WR Emory Blake (knee). Auburn switched QBs last week at LSU, giving RS soph Clint Moseley his first start of the season, with true frosh Kiehl Frazier also taking some snaps in 45-10 loss at Baton Rouge.

Boston College...Already without top RB Montel Harris (out for the season with a knee injury) and caddy Andre Williams limited to only 5 carries with his own sore ankle, backup Rolandan Finch assumed the bulk of the ball-carrying chores last week at Virginia Tech and responded with 91 physical yards, although BC fell to 1-6 in 30-14 loss.

Ball State...Leading rusher Paris Cotton returned to action last Saturday vs. CMU, although it was Zurlon Tipton, back in lineup for first time since mid-September, whose 110 YR most helped Cards to 31-27 win.

Colorado...Buffaloes resemble a M*A*S*H unit with no fewer than a dozen injuries on roster. RB Rodney Stewart and WR Paul Richardson are both temporarily sidelined with knee injuries, taking 60% of the CU offense with them to the infirmary, and now QB Tyler Hansen has joined them after being KO'd by a concussion last Saturday in 45-2 loss to Oregon. RS frosh Nick Hirschman went the rest of the way after Hansen was hurt and completed 8 of 18 passes in relief, and will get the call on Saturday at Arizona State if Hansen is ruled out. Stewart and Richardson are also questionable for the Sun Devils clash in Tempe.

Florida...Gators hope to get QB John Brantley and RB Jeff Demps back from ankle injuries in time for Saturday's game vs. Georgia at Jacksonville.

Florida State...Keep an eye on true frosh RB Devonta Freeman, with back-to-back 100-yard rushing games as Noles have scored consecutive 41-16 wins over Duke and Maryland. Leading WR Rashad Greene (26 catches) missed his second straight game with an ankle injury vs. Terps.

Georgia...Dawg defenders DT Kwame Geathers & DB Shawn Williams will be suspended for first half of this week's Florida game due to incidents during Oct. 15 game at Vandy.

Indiana...Tre Roberson became the first true frosh to start at QB for IU last week at Iowa. He fared decently, completing 16 of 24 passes for 196 yards and 1 TD (no picks) while rushing for 84 yards, but Hoosiers still lost 45-24. One of the other IU QBS, Dusty Kiel, is out 2-3 more weeks with an ankle injury.

Iowa State...Ineffective QB Steele Jantz was pulled in the first half last week vs. Texas A&M, replaced by frosh Jared Barnett, who completed 16 of 36 passes for 180 YP the rest of the way vs. Aggies.

La Tech...Bulldogs pulled ineffective frosh QB Nick Isham in 3rd Q at Utah State, with former starter Colby Cameron rallying LT in 4th Q to a 24-17 win at Logan.

LSU...Key DBs Tyrann Mathieu and Tharold Simon, plus RB Spencer Ware, were all suspended for last week's game vs. Auburn, but figure to be reinstated for Nov. 5 showdown at Alabama.

Memphis...Tigers were back to true frosh Taylor Reed for the starting QB assignment last week vs. Tulane, and Reed responded with a 2134-yard, 2-TDP effort in 33-17 win over Green Wave, Tigers' first C-USA win for HC Larry Porter since he took over in 2010.

Michigan...QB Denard Robinson has been nursing a back injury but is likely to be ready for this week's game vs. Purdue.

Michigan State...Star DE William Gholston was suspended by the Big Ten for last Saturday's game vs. Wisconsin for a punching incident the week before vs. Michigan. Gholston is expected to be available for Saturday's game at Nebraska.

Middle Tennessee...O.C. Willie Simmons resigned on October 14, related to aggravated assault charges filed against him for a domestic incident. Simmons' departure means that the Blue Raiders will have had five different offensive play-callers since 2008, with HC Rick Stockstill helping to fill in last week at FAU. Leading rusher Benjie Cunningham (foot) and second-leading rusher D.D. Kyles (leg) are both out for another week or two, though William Pratcher responded with his second straight 100+ -yard effort in last week's 38-14 win over Owls.

Navy...QB Kriss Proctor left last week's game vs. East Carolina with an elbow injury. Backup Trey Miller went the rest of the way in Mids' bitter 38-35 loss, their fifth in a row.

Northwestern...Maligned QB Dan Persa hobbled off the field with an apparent ankle injury in second half of last week's 34-24 loss to Penn State.

NC State...Watch CB David Amerson, now with a nation's-best 8 picks after two more (one returned for a TD) last week in 28-14 NCS win at Virginia.

Oklahoma State...Star WR Justin Blackmon sat out the 2nd half of last Saturday's 45-24 win at Missouri with a concussion. Third-leading Cowboy receiver Hubert Anyiam is out for several weeks with a broken foot, but OSU didn't skip a beat vs. Tigers.

Oregon...RB LaMichael James (elbow) and QB Darron Thomas (knee) missed last Saturday's 45-2 win at Colorado. Ducks didn't miss them, however, as a stable of RBs led by Kenjon Barner torched the Buffs, and electric RS frosh Bryan Bennett helped lead the easy win at Boulder.

Rice...QB Taylor McHargue, who was questionable last week vs. Tulsa with a concussion, started nonetheless vs. the Golden Hurricane but was pulled after a disastrous opening that featured two picks and an Owl fumble in the first three possessions for Rice. Backup Nick Fanuzzi, who has starting experience in the past, went the rest of the way in 38-20 loss to Tulsa.

South Carolina...Star RB Marcus Lattimore is done for the season with a knee injury suffered Oct. 14 at Mississippi State.

Tulane...Wave HC Bob Toledo resigned under fire Oct. 17, replaced on an interim basis by OL coach Mark Hutson, who did his candidacy for the permanent job no good in subsequent 33-17 home loss to Memphis. Early possible candidates for the job include LSU assistant Frank Wilson, Alabama assistant Burton Burns, UL-Lafayette HC Mark Hudspeth, former Tulane HC Tommy Bowden, former Tulane o.c. and West Virginia and Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez, and former Texas Tech coach Mike Leach. QB Ryan Griffin, bothered by a hip injury, was in the lineup and started vs. the Tigers.

UAB...Blazers were minus QB Bryan Ellis with a hand injury and RB Pat Shed with a knee injury past Thursday vs. UCF but still upset Golden Knights 26-24. Backup QB Jonathan Perry completed 31 of 42 passes for 327 yards and two TDs in the win.

UCF...Fading Golden Knights pulled ineffective soph QB Jeff Godfrey in 3rd Q last week at UAB, replaced by RS frosh Blake Bortles, who completed 6 of 10 passes and rallied UCF in the late going before Blazers pulled out 2-point win.

UCLA...Several suspensions have been handed down by Pac-12 form the brawl at the end of the first half last week at Arizona. WR Taylor Embree and DB Cassius Marsh will be suspended this week vs. Cal (Marsh perhaps for another game thereafter) and WR Randall Carroll will be forced to sit out the first half vs. Golden bears. Bruins also getting thinned on "D" with starters LB Glenn Love (leg) and DT Justin Edison (concussion) ? for Cal.

Virginia...Cavs' QB rotation imploded last week vs. NC State, with Michael Rocco and David Watford combining to complete only 11 of m35 passes with 3 picks in 28-14 loss to Wolfpack.

Wake Forest...Leading rusher RB Josh Harris missed a second straight game for the Deacs last week at Duke with a hamstring injury.

Washington State...QB Jeff Tuel, who earlier missed a month of action with a broken collarbone, left Saturday's night's game in Seattle vs. Oregon State with a left (non-throwing) shoulder injury. Backup Marshall Lobbestael, who had started effectively in Tuel's place earlier in the season, went the rest of the way in Cougars' depressing 44-21 loss to Beavers.

[StarDust Bum]

Pittsburgh hosts UConn on Wednesday night

CONNECTICUT HUSKIES (3-4)
at PITTSBURGH PANTHERS (3-4)


Kickoff: Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Pittsburgh -10

A pair of sub-.500 teams meet in a rare Wednesday night tilt, when Pittsburgh hosts Connecticut in what will be the last Big East meeting between the teams before the Panthers leave for the ACC.

After giving up 81 points in losses to Western Michigan and West Virginia, UConn posted a 16-10 win over USF before last week’s bye. Pittsburgh has lost four of five, scoring 12, 10 and 14 points in its past three defeats. UConn is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings with Pitt, including three SU wins as the underdog. The Panthers have allowed the most sacks in the nation (34) and have a minus-6 TO margin in the past two games. Since 2007, the Huskies are a stellar 20-10 ATS in Big East play. They also love being the underdogs, posting a 12-5 ATS mark (71%) over the past three seasons when getting points. Pittsburgh will likely win, but not by double-digits. The pick here is CONNECTICUT to cover.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also favors the Huskies:

Play Against - Home favorites (PITTSBURGH) - in conference games, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning. (93-47 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.4%, +41.3 units. Rating = 3*).

Although UConn has four losses already, three of those defeats have come by a touchdown or less. Junior QB Johnny McEntee isn’t going to remind people of Andrew Luck, but he is riding a string of four straight games without an interception in 120 pass attempts. Freshman RB Lyle McCombs has been the star of the Huskies, racking up his third 130-yard rushing game of his brief career in UConn’s 16-10 upset of South Florida in the last game. The Huskies defense has been pretty sound all year, holding five of seven opponents to less than 350 total yards. They rank ninth in the country in rushing defense (89 YPG), but 99th against the pass (262 YPG). However, Pittsburgh’s strength is rushing the football, so UConn should be able to keep the Panthers struggling offense at bay.

Pittsburgh ranks just 59th amongst FBS teams in rushing offense (158 YPG), but it has the nation’s No. 2 rusher in Ray Graham (134 rushing YPG). Graham has been effective in two career games against UConn, rushing for 128 yards on 24 carries (5.3 YPC), but he needs a lot more help from his teammates to get back in the win column. Pitt’s quarterbacks combined to complete 9-of-30 passes for 50 yards and 2 INT in the 26-14 to Utah in its last game. The Utes were ranked 100th in passing defense (268 YPG) entering that matchup. Panthers junior QB Tino Sunseri (5 TD, 7 INT) will likely remain the starter, but he has regressed in a big way after a solid 2010 campaign (16 TD, 9 INT). Sunseri is 18-of-39 for 165 yards, 0 TD and 3 INT in the past two games. On defense, the Panthers rank 95th against the pass (250 YPG), but have held their past four opponents to just 185 passing YPG.

[StarDust Bum]

Virginia visits Miami on Thursday night


VIRGINIA CAVALIERS (4-3)
at MIAMI HURRICANES (4-3)


Kickoff: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -14.5

It’s a short week for Virginia and Miami, both with 4-3 records, when the ACC rivals square off Thursday night in Florida.

Miami looks for its third straight SU win, and fourth cover in a row against a Virginia team whose three FBS wins are by three points or less. The Canes held Georgia Tech to 211 total yards in last week’s 24-7 victory, while the Cavs gained just 249 yards in a 28-14 home loss to NC State. UVa is 2-8 ATS against its past 10 FBS opponents since beating Miami 24-19 last year as a 14.5-point underdog. Canes QB Jacory Harris was knocked out of that loss, but threw for 232 yards and 2 TD in a 52-17 win the last time UVa visited. All signs point to MIAMI winning and covering the large spread.

This FoxSheets trend also sides with the Hurricanes:

VIRGINIA is 3-14 ATS (17.6%, -12.4 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play since 1992. The average score was VIRGINIA 21.1, OPPONENT 32.3 - (Rating = 2*).

Virginia’s two-QB rotation of sophomore Michael Rocco and freshman David Watford has not been working the past two weeks. The duo has combined to go 20-of-54 for 260 yards, 3 TD and 4 INT in this two-game span. But the ground game is the strength of this offense, posting six straight 150-yard rushing efforts until NC State held the Cavs to 124 last week. Perry Jones leads the team with 576 rushing yards (5.1 YPC), including 321 in the past three weeks. Freshman Kevin Parks (5.2 YPC) has seven of the team’s 13 TD on the ground. The Cavs have really hurt themselves with turnovers, giving away at least 3 TO in five of seven games this year. Virginia has been sound defensively though, ranking 19th in total defense (314 YPG) and 12th against the pass (176 YPG). The defense has also forced two turnovers in each of the past three games.

Miami has done an excellent job taking care of the football, with just four turnovers in its past five games. Harris has thrown for 10 TD and just 1 INT during this five-game stretch. Junior WR Tommy Streeter has five of these scores and 185 receiving yards in his past two games. RB Lamar Miller has provided 74% of the team’s rushing yards, ranking 2nd in the ACC with 114 rushing YPG. Miller is gaining 5.8 YPC and has scored seven total touchdowns in seven games. Miami’s run defense has improved tremendously in each of the past three games since allowing 219 rushing yards to Bethune-Cookman. The Canes held a strong Virginia Tech team to 172 yards on 4.5 YPC, then limited North Carolina to 141 yards on 3.4 YPC and then held Georgia Tech’s second-ranked rushing offense averaging 348 YPG, to a paltry 134 yards on 48 carries (2.8 YPC). Miami’s pass defense is solid, allowing less than 200 passing YPG.

[StarDust Bum]

TGS COLLEGE FOOTBALL UPDATE...LOOKING FOR AN ANGLE?


Connecticut at PITT (Wednesday)...Underdog has won SU in 4 of last 5 in series. Year ago, Pitt led 21-20 in 4th Q before allowing 10 pts. over 49-sec. period due to fumbled KO return in 30-28 setback. Panthers glad to see Husky RB Jordan Todman leave early for the NFL after he scampered for 222 yds. in 2010.

Virginia at MIAMI-FLORIDA (Thursday)...Miami in mean mood after LY's mistake-filled (season-high 5 TOs!) 24-19 upset in Charlottesville. Hurricane QB Jacory Harris eager for another crack at UVA after leaving game in 2nd Q due to concussion. Miami backups threw combined 4 "picks!"

Rice at HOUSTON (Thursday)...Amped-up UH eager to regain possession of coveted Bayou Bucket after 34-31 upset loss vs. crosstown rival Rice LY (schools just 6 miles apart). Cougars' record-setting QB Case Keenum missed contest due to ACL injury suffered vs. UCLA. In last game at UH in '09, Cougs fried Rice 73-14 (UH led 59-0 at H).


Hawaii at IDAHO...UH has covered 6 of past 7 in series. Warrior HC Greg McMackin served as the Idaho d.c. from 1976-78.

Northwestern at INDIANA...IU is 5-1 as a home underdog since 2010 (2-1 TY), while NW only 1-7 as away favorite since 2008 (0-1 TY), including losses in Bloomington in '08 & '10.

Bowling Green at KENT STATE...New KSU mentor Darrell Hazell has been unable to reverse squad's pointspread downturn, as Golden Flashes only 4-13 last 17 on board (1-6 TY). Payback-minded BG hasn't dropped back-to-back series games since 1972-73!

Uab at MARSHALL...Since joining C-USA in 2005, MU has won 5 of 6 series meetings (4-2 vs. spread). Herd "D" limited UAB's top weapon RB Pat Shed to just 45 YR in 16 carries in 31-17 victory at Birmingham LY.

Boston College at MARYLAND...Last 4 in hotly-contested ACC clash decided by total of only 19 points. Maryland's new HC Randy Edsall served as Boston College DB coach from 1991-93.

Purdue at MICHIGAN...Both teams (5 TOs each) had trouble with rainy/windy conditions in West Lafayette LY, but UM QB Denard Robinson (accounted for 244 yds.) was least affected in 27-16 victory.

Iowa at MINNESOTA...Iowa irate going into 80th straight meeting in quest for the revered Floyd of Rosedale Trophy. Hawkeyes had won 8 of previous 9 meetings (6-3 vs. number) until stunning 27-24 upset in Iowa City LY.

Michigan State at NEBRASKA...First meeting since 2003 (Nebraska 17-3 win in Alamo Bowl), but MSU eager to beat NU for the first time after losing all 5 previous clashes.

Air Force at NEW MEXICO...Prior to LY's comfy but non-covering 48-23 home series romp (AF was 33-pt. chalk), Falcons had beaten spread in 6 straight vs. New Mexico.

Navy at NOTRE DAME...Navy has pulled off upsets in 3 of last 4 series meetings, including convincing 35-17 stunner in MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford LY. ND couldn't stop the FB dive in the Middie triple option, as FB Alexander Teich blasted for 210 yds. in 22 totes.

Baylor at OKLAHOMA STATE...Baylor tired of being used as a pinata in series, suffering 5 straight lopsided losses (avg. 47-15 score!). Bears, however, must find a way to cope with OSU's NFL-ready QB Brandon Weeden, who hit 34 of 42 for 435 yds. & 3 TDs in 55-28 home win LY.

Illinois at PENN STATE...Penn State fired-up to avoid first-ever back-to-back series losses. Nittany Lions' rush attack was unproductive (only 65 YR), primarily due to seriously banged-up OL in LY's homecoming 33-13 upset loss in "Happy Valley."

West Virginia at RUTGERS...WV has owned Big East series since mid '90s, capturing 16 straight. Mountaineer QB Geno Smith hit 23 of 28 for 352 in LY's 35-14 home victory vs. RU.

[StarDust Bum]

UConn at Pitt

October 25, 2011



A pair of Big East schools, Pittsburgh and Connecticut, are going through trying seasons under first-year head coaches and will try to stay in the conference hunt when they square off Wednesday night at Heinz Field.

Most betting shops are listing Pitt (3-4 straight up, 2-5 against the spread) as a 10-point favorite with a total of 42. Gamblers can back the Huskies on the money line for a plus-300 return (risk $100 to win $300).

Todd Graham’s squad has lost four of its last five games, including a 26-14 home loss to Utah as a six-point ‘chalk’ on Oct. 15. After winning its first two games, Pitt dropped a pair of heartbreakers at Iowa (31-27) and vs. Notre Dame (15-12) when it couldn’t hold on to fourth-quarter leads.

The Panthers bounced back from those defeats to play their best game Sept. 29 versus South Florida. They handed the Bulls their first loss of the year in blowout fashion, cruising to a 44-17 triumph as three-point home underdogs.

Since then, however, Pitt has lost twice by double-digit margins, going down 34-10 at Rutgers before the aforementioned loss to Utah.

Junior quarterback Tino Sunseri has had a disappointing campaign, throwing more interceptions (seven) than touchdowns (five). Junior running back Ray Graham has been one of the few bright spots, rushing for 945 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 5.9 yards per carry. He also has a team-high 30 receptions for 200 yards.

UConn (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) is coming off its best effort of the season, dropping USF by a 16-10 count as a 7 ½-point home underdog. Dave Teggart booted three field goals and Byron Jones recovered a USF fumble and returned it 10 yards for a touchdown.

The focus of UConn’s offense is redshirt freshman RB Lyle McCombs, who has rushed for 705 yards and four TDs while averaging 4.0 YPC. Junior QB Johnny McEntee has 1,209 passing yards with a 6/4 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio. McEntee’s favorite target is Isiah Moore, who has 27 receptions for 353 yards.

Pitt will be without starting sophomore safety Jason Hendricks, who is out for the season with a shoulder injury. Meanwhile, senior OT Lucas Nix will be a game-time decision due to a knee injury that’s kept him out of the last two games. On the bright side, starting LB Todd Thomas is expected to start after missing back-to-back contests.

When these schools met last year in Storrs, UConn captured a 30-28 win as a six-point home underdog. Teggart’s three field goals and Moore’s 14-yard TD catch midway through the final stanza were the difference.

The Huskies have covered the number in four of the last five head-to-head meetings between these schools, including a 24-21 loss as 6 ½-point underdogs in the encounter at Pitt two years ago.

The ‘under’ is 5-2 overall for UConn, 2-1 in its three road assignments this year. Pitt has watched the ‘under’ go 4-3 overall, 3-2 in its home games.

ESPN will provide television coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Virginia Tech will be without its best defensive player for the rest of the season. Junior MLB Bruce Taylor sustained a broken foot in last week’s 30-14 win over Boston College. The Hokies are now without three of their best defensive players for the rest of the year.

--Sportsbook.com has Alabama installed as a five-point home favorite for next week’s critical showdown vs. LSU. The website has Stanford marked as a 2 ½-point home favorite vs. Oregon for their Nov. 12 battle in Palo Alto.

--Sportsbook.com has Stanford QB Andrew Luck listed as the plus-150 ‘chalk’ to win the Heisman Trophy. Other contenders include Alabama RB Trent Richardson (+450), Oklahoma St. QB Brandon Weeden (+600), Oklahoma QB Landry Jones (+700), Boise St. QB Kellen Moore (+700) and Wisconsin QB Russell Wilson (+700).

--Sportsbook.com has Alabama as the even-money favorite to win the BCS Championship Game. LSU has the second-shortest odds at plus-160, followed by Oklahoma State and Stanford, both of whom are carrying a plus-500 number. Boise St. has 12/1 odds and Clemson’s number is 18/1.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/25/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
10/22/11 22-*25-*0 46.81% -*2750 Detail
10/21/11 3-*0-*1 100.00% +*1500 Detail
10/20/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
10/18/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/15/11 33-*31-*3 51.56% -*550 Detail
10/14/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/13/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
10/08/11 29-*19-*0 60.42% +*4050 Detail
10/07/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/06/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
10/01/11 55-*45-*2 55.00% +*2750 Detail
Totals 153-*129-*6 54.26% +5550

Wednesday, October 26

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Connecticut - 8:00 PM ET Connecticut +10 500

Pittsburgh - Under 42 500

[StarDust Bum]

Virginia at Miami, Fl.

October 26, 2011


Matchup: Virginia (4-3) at Miami (4-3)
Venue: Sun Life Stadium – Natural Grass
Date: Thursday, Oct. 27
Time/TV: 8:00 pm ET - ESPN
Line: Miami -13, o/u 48.5

I guess what it took to get Arizona to play up to their potential was for Mike Stoops to get fired. That must be the case because the Wildcats looked like a remarkably different team last Thursday night than the one that had consistently underperformed in 2011 and for much of 2010. When the final gun sounded, ‘Zona had stomped UCLA 48-12, easily covering the number (-4) and raising my Thursday night record in 2011 to 5-3 (63%).

Then again, maybe it had nothing to do with Mike Stoops and the reality is the Bruins are just that awful. Seriously, I know he is an alum and all but how much longer can head coach Rick Neuheisel be employed?

Moving on to this Thursday, let’s hop on a plane and head back East, specifically down to South Florida and take a look at Miami and Virginia.

Both programs are in the midst of rebuilding with new coaches and both have shown flashes of excellence and mediocrity so far in 2011. Mike London, in his 2nd year at Virginia, and Al Golden, in his first season at Miami, are very familiar with one another from their time together on Al Groh’s staff at Virginia. Since that time, London went to Richmond where he won a 1-AA National Championship with the Spiders and thus punched his ticket for a bigger job. Golden, meanwhile, went to Temple and turned the Owls into a winner after years of being a doormat and in the process made himself a very attractive coaching candidate.

While both programs sit at 4-3, it is the home team Hurricanes who have looked better as of late. Last weekend, the Miami rush defense, which entered the game ranked 94th in the nation, held Georgia Tech and its second-ranked rushing attack to 134 yards on the ground and just 211 total yards. And if the Yellow Jackets can’t run they are pretty much sunk and accordingly Miami cruised to an easy 24-7 win.

That win coupled with the victory over North Carolina the previous week gave Miami their first back-to-back victories since they beat Maryland and Georgia Tech in mid-November of 2010. Now, all that stands between the Hurricanes first three game winning streak since 2009 is a Virginia team which struggled mightily last week against North Carolina State.

The Cavaliers looked like they were trending in a positive direction when they defeated Georgia Tech 24-21 on Oct. 15. However, it was a case of “one step forward and two steps back” as they regressed a week later in a 28-14 home loss to the Wolfpack. Against NCST, Virginia managed just 12 first downs and an average of 3.7 yards per play - 249 total yards - on offense, the lowest offensive output in London's two seasons.

What’s tougher to accept for the Cavs is that “production” came against a banged-up Wolfpack defense that was starting its fourth combination in six games along the defensive line due to injuries.

The root of Virginia’s problems on offense stem from the fact that London just can’t seem to settle on a starting quarterback. It is never a good sign for a team to rotate QB’s throughout a game but that is just what London has done so far in 2011 with sophomore Michael Rocco – a traditional pocket passer – and true freshman David Watford – more of an athlete at the QB position. Their two differing skill sets have rarely added up to efficient production as the numbers from the NC State game would indicate. Rocco and Watford combined to go 11 for 35 for 125 yards against the Wolfpack.

Now the Cavaliers duo at QB must face a rapidly improving Miami defense led by Sean Spence. The senior linebacker has 65 total tackles (10th nationally), 9.5 tackles for loss (7th nationally), three sacks and a forced fumble and has been named one of the 12 semifinalists for the Butkus Award, honoring the nation's best LB. Spence and company will look to corral a Virginia rushing game featuring Perry Jones, Kevin Parks, and Clifton Richardson.

There was some QB controversy at the start of the season for Miami as many thought Stephen Morris might overtake Jacory Harris but Golden has stuck with the oft criticized Harris and he is starting to pay dividends. The offensive numbers aren’t huge – Miami only boasts the 79th ranked offense in college football – but the decision making process for Harris is much better and most importantly, the interceptions are way down.

It certainly helps to have a great running back to hand off to and Lamar Miller appears to be the next in a long line of talented Hurricane backs. Miller will be the focal point of the offense on Thursday night and will be tested against a Virginia defense ranked 19th in the country.

Thursday’s Betting Notes:


Virginia is 2-5 against the spread The Cavs have played four straight at home (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS)
UVA is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS on the road, with the lone win coming against Indiana (34-31), who is 1-7 overall.
Miami is 4-3 ATS this season The Hurricanes have gone 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS at home.
The two non-covers came as double-digit favorites against Kansas State (24-28) and Bethune Cookman (45-14).
The home team has won the last two encounters.
The total has gone 2-2 in the last four encounters but the ‘over’ is 2-0 in the last two from South Florida.
No look-ahead for Miami, with Duke on deck next week.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/26/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/25/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
10/22/11 22-*25-*0 46.81% -*2750 Detail
10/21/11 3-*0-*1 100.00% +*1500 Detail
10/20/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
10/18/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/15/11 33-*31-*3 51.56% -*550 Detail
10/14/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/13/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
10/08/11 29-*19-*0 60.42% +*4050 Detail
10/07/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/06/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
10/01/11 55-*45-*2 55.00% +*2750 Detail
Totals 153-*131-*6 53.87% +4450

Thursday, October 27

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Rice - 8:00 PM ET Houston -27.5 500

Houston - Over 71 500

Virginia - 8:00 PM ET Virginia +13.5 500

Miami - Under 48.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Georgia-Florida resume rivalry in Jacksonville


GEORGIA BULLDOGS (5-2)
vs. FLORIDA GATORS (4-3)

Jacksonville Municipal Stadium - Jacksonville, FL
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Georgia -3, Total 48.5

No. 22 Georgia and slumping Florida square off for their yearly meeting in Jacksonville, FL on Saturday afternoon.

The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party has been an annual celebration for Florida, which has won 11 of the past 13 meetings (8-4-1 ATS) with Georgia. But currently, it’s the Gators that are doing the losing (three straight SU and ATS defeats), while the Bulldogs are riding a five-game win streak (4-1 ATS). The one non-cover was last week’s 33-28 win at Vanderbilt behind 326 yards and 3 TD from Aaron Murray. The Gators offense has been dreadful, scoring a total of 27 points during the three-game skid, but QB John Brantley (ankle) is expected to return to the field. Turnovers could go a long way in determining the winner here. Florida’s last defensive turnover occurred more than 13 quarters ago, and Georgia has only two multi-TO games this year. The Gators offense has 10 giveaways in the past four weeks, while Georgia’s defense has nine takeaways in its past four contests. The pick here is GEORGIA.

This FoxSheets trend also sides with the Bulldogs:

Mark Richt is 30-19 ATS (61.2%, +9.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of GEORGIA. The average score was GEORGIA 26.7, OPPONENT 22.0.

Murray is eager to avenge last year’s 34-31 loss to Florida when he tossed three interceptions to ruin a 313-yard, 3-TD effort. The sophomore has thrown multiple touchdown passes in six of his seven games this season, totaling 16 TD and 7 INT on the year. RB Isaiah Crowell used the bye week to rest his injured wrist and he should be able to start this rivalry game. The freshman has three 100-yard games against SEC opponents already, but has been held to 93 yards on 29 carries (3.2 YPC) in the past two games.

Georgia’s defense ranks sixth in the country in yardage (273 total YPG) and has been especially proficient in defending opponents’ aerial attacks. The Bulldogs rank sixth in passing efficiency defense (97.90) and ninth in passing yardage (171 YPG).

Florida has not lost four straight games since 1988. Brantley will certainly give his team a boost, but he did not have a great game in Jacksonville last year, completing 16-of-25 passes for 193 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. He has not reached 230 passing yards in any of his five games, but Brantley’s 9.2 yards per attempt ratio is pretty strong. The bye week also helped Jeff Demps heal from his bum ankle. Demps is averaging 8.3 YPC this season and he had 81 total yards and a touchdown against the Bulldogs last year. The Gators are hopeful Demps will inject some life into a ground game that has 194 rushing yards (64.7 per game) in its past three contests. Leading rusher Chris Rainey (500 rush yds) has only 89 yards (2.2 YPC) since piling up three straight 100-yard games earlier in the year. But Rainey had 241 all-purpose yards in last year’s meeting with Georgia, and could be a huge factor again on Saturday.

Other than its lack of turnovers, Florida’s defense has been mostly good this year. The Gators allowed a ton of yards to the nation’s top two teams (Alabama and LSU), but held Auburn to 278 total yards last week.

[StarDust Bum]

No. 12 Wisconsin travels to Ohio State

WISCONSIN BADGERS (6-1)
at OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (4-3)

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Wisconsin -7, Total: 51

After seeing its unbeaten season disappear with a Hail Mary loss at Michigan State, No. 12 Wisconsin tries to bounce back with another tough road game, at well-rested Ohio State coming off a bye.

The Badgers are scoring 47.4 PPG (5th in nation), and had been allowing 9.7 PPG (3rd in nation) before MSU hung 37 against them. The Buckeyes won their last game at Illinois thanks to 114 rushing yards from Dan Herron making his season debut after being suspended for six games. The Badgers have won three of the past five meetings in Columbus and also beat OSU 31-18 last year in Madison. Although Ohio State has been the best bet in BCS conference play since 2006 (29-13 ATS, 69%), Wisconsin had covered eight straight Big Ten games before its loss to MSU. The Badgers have the personnel to limit OSU’s ground game and force the Buckeyes to throw with their pathetic passing game. Play on WISCONSIN to win and cover.

This four-star FoxSheets trend also backs the Badgers:

WISCONSIN is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) vs. poor passing teams averaging 150 or less passing yards/game since 1992. The average score was WISCONSIN 36.1, OPPONENT 15.3 - (Rating = 4*).

QB Russell Wilson threw two costly interceptions in last week’s loss, but he hasn’t made many other mistakes this year, ranking second in the nation in passing efficiency (16 TD, 3 INT). RB Montee Ball is 15th in the nation with 110 rushing YPG and he has been even more dominant in Big Ten play, rumbling for 408 yards (6.6 YPC) and 8 TD in three conference games. Ball did not play against OSU last year, but James White did, gaining 75 rushing yards and a touchdown in the 31-18 win. White is averaging 5.7 YPC this season with four touchdowns. WR Nick Toon leads the team with 505 receiving yards and 6 TD, and his 72 receiving yards against the Buckeyes last year was a season high for him.

Wisconsin currently ranks sixth in the nation in scoring defense (13.6 PPG) and is fourth in passing defense (166 YPG). The Badgers should have little problem stifling an OSU passing game that has been comically bad the past five games, completing 30-of-80 passes for a total of 413 yards.

Ohio State freshman Braxton Miller (26-of-51, 403 yards, 5 TD 2 INT) will likely start under center on Saturday. Miller is much more dangerous running the football, with 91 yards at Nebraska and 83 yards against Colorado. The main ball carrier will be Dan Herron, who was effective against Illinois (5.0 YPC) and also rushed for 91 yards with two touchdowns against Wisconsin last year. TE Jake Stoneburner has only 12 catches this year, but six have been for touchdowns.

Defensively, OSU has been pretty sound this season with the exception of surrendering 34 points at Nebraska. The Buckeyes rank 12th in the nation in scoring defense (16.3 PPG) and 16th in yardage (305 YPG). They have forced 11 turnovers in the past five games, but Wisconsin is veteran team that does not cough up the ball easily (5 TO in seven games).

[StarDust Bum]

USC tries to end Stanford's 15-game win streak

STANFORD CARDINAL (7-0)
at USC TROJANS (6-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Stanford -7.5, Total: 59.5

No. 4 Stanford puts the nation’s longest win streak to a stiff test when it visits No. 20 USC on Saturday night.

Stanford has won 15 straight games, including 25-point victories in each of the past 10 contests. The Cardinal ran all over Washington last week (school-record 446 yards), and Andrew Luck will certainly be able to pick apart USC’s 104th-ranked pass defense (265 YPG) to add to his gaudy career numbers against the Trojans: 32-of-46, 429 yards, 5 TD, 0 INT. Stanford’s win streak began last year when it edged USC on a last-second field goal. Defensively, the Cardinal rank in nation’s top-5 in scoring (12.6 PPG), rushing (76 YPG), sacks (3.6 per game) and Tackles For Loss (8.1 per game), which is enough to make USC QB Matt Barkley very uncomfortable in the pocket. STANFORD will win this game by at least two touchdowns.

This rare six-star FoxSheets trend also supports the Cardinal:

STANFORD is 12-0 ATS (+12.0 Units) after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was STANFORD 45.3, OPPONENT 13.3 - (Rating = 6*).

Stanford ranks second in the nation in scoring at 48.6 PPG and has put up a healthy 47.8 PPG in its five conference tilts. The Cardinal also rank ninth in the nation with 504 total YPG. Luck, who is given the responsibility to call most of the plays, has been consistently excellent all year, and now has 10 straight games with at least two touchdown passes. For the season, Luck is completing 72% of his passes for 270 passing YPG, 20 TD and 3 INT. Four players have at least 300 receiving yards, but none has more than 400. Coby Fleener leads the team with 384 yards and 7 TD, while Chris Owusu has a team-high 30 catches. RB Stepfan Taylor has rushed for 561 yards (7.1 YPC) with five total TD in the past five games, including 138 on just 10 carries against Washington. Tyler Gaffney had 117 yards on nine carries last week and Anthony Wilkerson added 93 rushing yards (6.6 YPC) and two touchdowns.

Although Washington ran up 172 yards on Stanford in last week’s 65-21 blowout, the Cardinal have held five opponents to 60 rushing yards or less. The passing defense has also improved, allowing 218 YPG in the past four weeks.

USC is fresh off impressive road wins at Cal (30-9) and Notre Dame (31-17). The Trojans continue to beat teams through the air with QB Matt Barkley (19 TD, 4 INT) and star WR Robert Woods, who ranks second in the nation with 72 catches and 129 receiving YPG. Woods has been bothered by an ankle injury, but he is expected to start Saturday night. The key to this game will be whether the RB duo of Marc Tyler and Curtis McNeal can balance the passing attack with a decent ground game. USC rolled up 219 rushing yards at Notre Dame, as the pair combined for 185 yards on 37 carries (5.0 YPC).

The Trojans are getting their defensive rankings to more respectable levels after the past two weeks (43rd in yardage at 356 YPG, T-38th in scoring at 22.6 PPG) because the defense is figuring out how to create turnovers. After just three takeaways in the first four games of the season, USC has forced 10 TO in the past three weeks. However, Stanford has only given the ball up five times in its seven games this year.

[StarDust Bum]

Games to Watch - Week 9

October 26, 2011

Saturday - Michigan State at Nebraska (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny
As of Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had Nebraska installed as a four-point favorite with a total of 49 ½. The Spartans are plus-155 on the money line. Mark Dantonio's team has won four in a row both SU and ATS, including last week's 37-31 win over previously-unbeaten Wisconsin on a Hail Mary pass to end the game. Senior QB Kirk Cousins threw for 290 yards and three touchdowns without being intercepted. For the season, Cousins has an 11/4 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio. Nebraska came off its open date to trash Minnesota 41-14 last week. The Cornhuskers are unbeaten in four home games, but they are 0-4 ATS in those four contests. On Bo Pelini's watch since 2008, Nebraska has a 9-15 ATS record in 24 games as a home 'chalk.' As a road underdog during Dantonio's five-year tenure, MSU owns a 6-5 spread record. The 'over' is 4-3 overall for Nebraska this year, 3-1 in its home games. As for the Spartans, they have seen the 'under' go 5-2 overall, 2-0 in its road assignments. Since 1995, these schools have met three times with Nebraska winning each meeting by a combined score of 122-27.




Saturday - Oklahoma at Kansas State (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny
As of Wednesday, most books were listing Oklahoma as a 13 ½-point favorite with a total of 58 ½. Bob Stoops' team is looking to bounce back from a stunning 41-38 loss to Texas Tech as a 29-point home favorite. Landry Jones threw five TD passes, but the Sooners allowed 572 yards of total offense to the Red Raiders. Kansas St. is one of the nation's biggest surprises, racing out to a 7-0 record while hooking up its backers at a 6-1 ATS clip. The Wildcats have been getting stellar play from junior QB Collin Klein, who has rushed for four TDs and threw for another in last week's 59-21 win at Kansas. Klein has rushed for 14 TDs and has an 8/3 TD-INT ratio. K-St. owns an 8-3 spread record in its last 11 home 'dog situations under Bill Snyder (spanning two separate terms). Since he took back over in 2009, the Wildcats have won outright in five of eight home 'dog spots. OU has won four in a row over K-St., but the Wildcats are 4-2 versus the number in the last six head-to-head meetings.




Other Games to Watch
Matchup Skinny

Florida vs. Georgia (at Jacksonville) - As of Wednesday, most spots had Georgia listed as a three-point 'chalk' with a total of 49. Florida has won 18 of the last 21 head-to-head meetings dating back to Steve Spurrier's arrival at UF in 1990. Will Muschamp was on the losing end of four of those games when he played at UGA. Muschamp's first UF team has lost three in a row both SU and ATS, and it is in dire need to get back senior QB John Brantley, who hasn't played since the loss to Alabama. Brantley and RB Jeff Demps are both listed as 'probable' vs. UGA. Mark Richt's team has won five straight, going 4-1 ATS, since losing its first two games to Boise St. and South Carolina. The Dawgs won a 33-28 decision at Vandy their last time out, but the Commodores blocked a punt in the final minute that nearly led to a miraculous comeback win. Georgia QB Aaron Murray has a 16/7 TD-INT ratio. The 'over' has hit in four straight games between these bitter rivals.

Baylor at Oklahoma State - As of Wednesday, most books had Oklahoma St. listed as a 13 ½-point favorite with a total of 79 (highest in CFB all year!). Baylor has 5/1 odds to win outright at the Las Vegas Hilton. Mike Gundy's squad easily ended Missouri's 10-game winning streak at home by blasting the Tigers 45-24 last week. Brandon Weeden threw for 338 yards and three TDs, while Joseph Randle rushed for 138 yards and three scores. Baylor had an open date after losing 55-28 at Texas A&M. The Bears, who are 0-2 both SU and ATS on the road, are led by QB Robert Griffin III, who has 22 TD passes and only two interceptions. They are 8-6 ATS as road 'dogs under Art Briles. The 'over' is a perfect 5-0 for Baylor this year, while OSU has seen the 'over' go 3-3-1 overall, 2-1 in its home outings. OSU has won the last five head-to-head meetings both SU and ATS.

Illinois at Penn State - Most spots are listing PSU as a five-point 'chalk' with a total of 40 ½. The Nittany Lions have won six in a row since suffering their lone loss of the year vs. Alabama. They are off a 34-24 win at Northwestern as 4 ½-point favorites. Silas Redd was the catalyst with 164 rushing yards and one TD on just 18 carries. QB Matt McGloin threw a pair of TD passes without an interception. Illinois has dropped back-to-back games since starting 6-0. The Illini are in the midst of a 1-4 ATS slide, but it is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as a road 'dog under Ron Zook. PSU has watched the 'under' go 6-1-1 overall this year, while Illinois has seen the 'under' go 5-3. The 'over' has hit in four straight games between these Big Ten rivals. When these schools met last year, the Illini cruised to a 33-13 win as a nine-point underdog.

Wisconsin at Ohio State - Wisconsin had better shake off its first loss fast with this trip to The Shoe looming. Most books have the Badgers installed as seven-point favorites with a total of 50 ½. The Buckeyes are plus-235 on the money line. They are 2-2 ATS in four home underdog situations dating back to 2001. Ohio St. has had two weeks to prep for this game after beating previously-unbeaten Illinois by a 17-7 count as a three-point underdog. Wisconsin is 8-7-1 ATS as a road favorite under Brett Bielema. The 'over' is 5-2 overall for the Badgers, but the 'under' is 5-2 for the Bucks. Wisconsin beat OSU 31-18 as a 3 ½-point home underdog in last year's encounter.