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**StarDust Bum** · 10-24-2011, 07:22 PM

College football odds: Week 9 opening line report

Call it the calm before the storm. The week before the week. The appetizer.

Whatever Week 9 of the college football season truly is, it won’t include LSU or Alabama. Those two BCS-hungry monsters both have the week off, as they prepare to collide on Nov. 5. (Please see below for more on that).

In the interim, though, we still have plenty of intrigue. Oklahoma and Wisconsin made sure of that as they both tripped up last week, opening the door for several teams to believe they have a shot at the BCS title game.

And one of those teams is Stanford.

“The only thing we control is how we work during the week and how we play on Saturdays and after that, great, if that puts us some place, great. If it doesn’t, so be it. We’re going to play hard, and we’re going to play aggressive and hopefully we’ll continue to get better.”

Those were the words of Stanford first-year coach David Shaw, and he better get used to that line of questioning. As powerful and precise as LSU and Alabama have been, it’s going to be awfully difficult for the Tigers and Crimson Tide to both make the national title game.

Oklahoma, with a soft schedule, seemed like the perfect dance partner ... until it lost. Wisconsin, in the soft Big Ten, seemed like a quality candidate, too ... until it lost. And while Clemson is still unbeaten and scoring points in bunches, not many expect an ACC team to be playing for the crystal ball anytime soon.

That leaves the Oklahoma State, Boise State and the Cardinal, who play host to an improved Southern Cal team Saturday at home.

“Stanford just keeps on cruising. Slow starts sometimes, but then they figure out a way to get it going,” Pete Korner of Esportclub, LLC, in Las Vegas told ***********. “When it comes to making their lines, we continue to have to use the highest number we have.”

Korner installed Stanford as 9-point favorite and so did Johnny Avello at the Wynn Las Vegas, the first book in Nevada to post college football odds every week.

Quarterback Andrew Luck has led the Cardinal to 10 straight wins of 25 points or more.

“He has it all,” Shaw said of Luck, “at his fingertips.”

And with that, let’s take a look at some of next week’s other marquee games. We'll give you Korner's line consultant group's recommended odds and the actual opening numbers at the Wynn.

Virginia (+14.5) at Miami

With the spotlight off their scandal for a few weeks, coach Al Golden and the Hurricanes have gotten back to business. Miami is now 4-3 after consecutive wins over North Carolina and Georgia Tech and may yet make a run for the ACC title game.

“I just don’t think Virginia’s in this game at all,” Korner said. “So, with it being a Thursday game, it will be heavily bet. So, we needed to go high. I don’t expect it to be close.”

The Sports Club recommended Virginia +17 but the Wynn opened just over the two-touchdown spread.

Illinois (+6) at Penn State

A month ago, Penn State was smarting after getting whacked by Alabama and barely getting by Temple. Now, as the Big Ten dominoes continue to fall, all of a sudden the Nittany Lions are in first place? Wow. Nice run. Bad league.

“I still don’t have a feel for Penn State,” said Korner, who recommended Illinois +5.5. “This will probably be a tight game, and I’m not a fan of Penn State yet. It’s kind of a bland line, but we didn’t want to be too far out there.”

Michigan State (+5.5) at Nebraska

Count the Spartans and Cornhuskers as teams who believe they have a chance in the Big Ten now, too. Michigan State has recovered well from losing to Notre Dame, setting up an interesting matchup in Lincoln.

“This will be a good game. Nebraska’s continuously getting money, even though this isn’t one of their best years,” Korner said. “This might be a letdown game for Michigan State. I don’t see it that way, personally, but we think the bettors will. This is a line that we’re not so sure where it’s going to go as the week progresses.”

Early bettors took the points right away forcing the Wynn to drop their number down to 4.5.

Oklahoma (-13.5) at Kansas State

One of the big boys was bound to fall at some point and there probably aren’t a ton of people out there surprised to discover Oklahoma fit the bill. Now, it’s up to coach Bob Stoops to see how they bounce back against an electric Wildcats team.

“Coming off a loss, yes, but we still kept it at a high number for Oklahoma,” said Korner, who sent out OU -15. “I think Kansas State can play, no question, and this will be tight, and volatile for a while. But it’s a fair number, and Oklahoma can hit it if they play well.”

Baylor (+18) at Oklahoma State

The Cowboys not only seem to be in the driver seat for the Big 12 title, but they even have a distinct shot at the national championship game now. How long those chances last, still remain to be seen. But no matter what happens in December, Oklahoma State still has to take care of business on October.

“Now, they have everything in front of them and things really broke well for them,” Korner said. “Knowing that, I expect them to play big here. Really big.”

The Sports Club sent out a larger spread (+20) than what the Wynn opened and it seems the early bettors think the Bears are live dogs in this one. The Wynn was dealing Cowboys -16 late Sunday.

Iowa State (+17.5) at Texas Tech

We wouldn’t normally signal out this game as marquee, but we owe it to the hangover players out there to see just how coach Tommy Tuberville and Texas Tech respond after the upset of Oklahoma.

“I don’t have a good feel for these teams. We expect good play here in a conference game, and it will be high scoring and exciting,” Korner said. “But Texas Tech should take care of business.”

Korner's group recommended at smaller spread (+14) and that seems to be the way the line will move. The Wynn dropped down to TTU -16 shortly after opening.

South Carolina (-6.5) at Tennessee

Steve Spurrier clearly doesn’t have the talent that the elite SEC teams have this season, but he may have the best collection on the East side of the league and should be able to get to Atlanta for the conference title game.

“As SEC matchups go, this is not a great game,” Korner said. “We stuck it at a touchdown, as South Carolina is always capable of laying an egg. They do have the talent to pull away, certainly, but you never know.”

This one got bet down right away, with the Vols getting just 4.5 points late Sunday at the Wynn.

Clemson (-5) at Georgia Tech

The inconsistent Yellow Jackets hurt this matchup a little with their loss to Miami. However, now that Clemson is truly in the national-title hunt, we’ll include the Tigers moving forward.

“Another one where we expect a high-scoring game,” Korner said. “I like Clemson, like the way the offense has been playing, and I easily could’ve gone as high as 8. I don’t see a letdown at all, and really expect to see a blowout.”

The Wynn didn't have this one posted with their opening spreads but offshore books went with a shortly line, installing the Tigers as 4.5-point favorites.

Wisconsin (-8.5) at Ohio State

Bounce Back, Part II. Quarterback Russell Wilson and the Badgers were stunned against Michigan State. This is the Big Ten though and anyone can recover, right?

“This is a good game, all of a sudden. Wisconsin, though, should really bounce back,” Korner said. “Ohio State is not Ohio State any more. And Wisconsin, even after a loss, knows they’re one game away from right being back in the middle of things. It has happened before. They know that. So, I do not see a letdown.”

Korner's group was bang on with the Wynn on this one but the line is moving down toward a touchdown spread.

Bonus Game: Nov: 5: LSU (+5) at Alabama

We’d be remiss not to mention the clash of the titans that is still two weeks ago, only because both teams have a bye, and also because books are already taking action on this mammoth SEC battle.

“We opened it at 6, and nobody is betting the home team,” Korner said. “Things have slowed down a bit. But all the money that’s been coming in, has been on LSU.”

**StarDust Bum** · 10-24-2011, 07:23 PM

Baylor Bears Eye Upset At Oklahoma State Cowboys

Following intrastate rival Oklahoma’s stunning 41-38 home loss to Texas Tech last Saturday night, the Oklahoma State Cowboys find themselves in the driver’s seat in the Big 12 with their eyes on a much bigger prize.

The Cowboys (7-0, 4-0 Big 12) play the first of two straight home games when they host the Baylor Bears (4-2, 1-2) this Saturday. Game time is 3:30 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by ESPN2. Oklahoma State opened as a 15-point favorite according to the Don Best odds screen.

Mike Gundy's gang moved up to No. 3 in the new BCS rankings after routing Missouri 45-24 on the road, taking advantage of losses by the Sooners and Wisconsin to rise in the polls. The Cowboys figure to move up to No. 2 in the BCS with wins over Baylor and Kansas State the next two weeks.

The top two teams in the BCS square off on November 5 when No. 1 LSU visits No. 2 Alabama.

The Bears will present Oklahoma State with a tough matchup defensively, but they have had a difficult time stopping the opposition this season. Baylor is coming off a 55-28 loss at Texas A&M two weeks ago and hopes an off week will help the team figure out a way to stop the Cowboys.

Opposing teams have scored an average of 37 points in the last four games against the Bears, who have gone 2-2 during that stretch, with all four going ‘over’ the total. They have managed to win four of their first six games by simply finding a way to outscore their opponents in shootouts, totaling at least 48 points in each victory.

Oklahoma State has allowed only one opponent to score 30 points this season, and that came in a 59-33 rout of Tulsa on the road on September 17. Since then, the Cowboys have limited the opposition to an average of 27 points per game with the ‘under’ going 2-1-1.

Baylor has lost the last five meetings with Oklahoma State both straight up and against the spread, with the ‘under’ going 3-1 in the past four after going ‘over’ five straight times in the series.

The Bears lost last year’s meeting 55-28 as 10-point road underdogs, as Cowboys quarterback Brandon Weeden threw for 435 yards and three touchdowns. Bears QB Robert Griffin III did not contribute a score in that game, as running backs Jay Finley and Terrance Ganaway each had two touchdowns.

The weather forecast for Stillwater on Saturday calls for cooler temperatures with a high of 69 under sunny skies after peaking in the mid-80s earlier in the week.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-24-2011, 07:25 PM

Oklahoma Sooners At Kansas State Big 12 Betting Preview

Big XII rivals collide in NCAA football betting action this week, as the Kansas State Wildcats look to send the Oklahoma Sooners reeling to their second straight defeat.

Kickoff from Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, KS is set for 3:30 (ET) on Saturday afternoon, and there will be television coverage available on ESPN and ESPN3.com.

This is the only game of the week that pits a pair of Top 10 teams in the BCS rankings against one another. Ironically, it is Kansas State (7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS) that comes into this one as the higher ranked school at No. 8.

Of course, there are some real concerns right now over the quality of play that the Wildcats have run across. They have yet to play Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M or Texas, the next four teams on the schedule, and the common belief is that K-State will be lucky lucky to just escape with a 2-2 record in those duels.

Both sides of the ball have decent numbers for Kansas State, but things really need to improve to take down the mighty Sooners.

Collin Klein does just about everything for the Wildcats. He is the team's leading passer with 934 yards and eight touchdowns, and is the leading rusher as well with 670 yards and 14 scores.

Though those numbers are great, especially through just seven games, the closest thing to this Oklahoma defense that he has seen this year is that of the Miami Hurricanes, who aren't nearly as good as the former No. 1 team in the land.

It goes without saying that the Sooners (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) have hit a crossroad in their season. They were upset last week as four touchdown favorites by the Texas Tech Red Raiders, and now, they know that there is zero margin for error if they want to have any chance of playing for the BCS National Championship this year.

Offensively, it is going to be up to Kansas State to stop the powerful duo of Ryan Broyles and Landry Jones. The former has 67 receptions for 899 yards and nine scores with the latter throwing for 2,589 yards and 21 TDs.

It is the defense that should really be hyped up this week for the Sooners, though. They allowed a stunning 41 points to the Red Raiders last week, which raised their scoring average against to 19.4 PPG. This was the unit that really let this team down last year, and it is clear that ranking No. 41 in the country at 353.6 YPG just isn't going to cut it for a team that was hoping to win the whole enchilada in 2011.

Based upon BCS rankings, you would figure that Oklahoma would be the short underdog in this game. However, as we said, many think that the Sooners are still legitimate, while no one is believing in the Wildcats. That's why the hosts are underdogs by a whopping 14 ½-points after opening up at +13 ½.

Last year, Kansas State gave the Sooners some trouble in Norman, but the hosts came away with a 42-30 victory. It was the Sooners' fourth straight victory in this series dating back to 2004.

This will be the ninth str5aight meeting in which OU has been favored, with KSU covering four of the last six as the underdog. The 'over' has also gone 4-2 in recent clashes and the road team is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10.

There is a threat of rain in the "Little Apple" on Saturday, as temperatures are going to be in the mid-60s with a 30 percent chance of showers.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-24-2011, 07:26 PM

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Host Navy Midshipmen

After a frustrating loss to the USC Trojans last Saturday, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish hope to regroup and bounce back against another rival when they host the Navy Midshipmen.

Saturday’s kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. (ET) and will be televised nationally on NBC. Notre Dame is currently a 19 ½-point favorite on the Don Best odds screen.

Notre Dame (4-3) appeared to be on a roll heading into the game against USC last week, but the Irish hit a major speed bump in the 31-17 loss as a 10-point favorite. Notre Dame managed very little on offense, passing for 226 yards but rushing for only 41.

The keys to beating Navy this week will be how well Tommy Rees and Notre Dame's rushing defense play after both struggled badly against the Trojans. Rees went 23-of-37 for 190 yards and no touchdowns with one interception, the lowest rated start of his career. The defense surrendered 219 rushing yards to USC, a very alarming stat with the nation’s third best rushing attack coming to town.

Navy (2-5) started the season off well with wins and covers over Delaware and Western Kentucky, but has since dropped five straight games (2-3 ATS). The latest was a 38-35 loss at home to East Carolina last week in a game in which the Middies were a 13-point favorite.

Navy’s pass defense was the culprit against East Carolina last week as Dominique Davis set an NCAA record with 26 straight completions in the first half, finishing the game 40-of-45 with 372 passing yards.

The Midshipmen are averaging 325.1 rushing yards per game, but are giving up 30.3 points per game on defense. Still, they’ve played better than their record would indicate; four of their five losses have been by three points or less.

From 1964-2006, Notre Dame had an NCAA-record 43-game winning streak over Navy. Remarkably, after that many decades of being dominated, the Midshipmen have swung the tides in their favor recently winning three of the last four games both SU and ATS.

Navy also holds a 7-3 ATS record over Notre Dame in their last 10 meetings, and has won each of the last two games in South Bend outright.

Navy rushed for 367 yards in their 35-17 win over Notre Dame last season and 348 yards in the 23-21 win in Notre Dame in 2009. The Fighting Irish are averaging 148.3 rushing yards against per game this season.

Over the last nine games between these two teams, the ‘over’ is 6-3 in totals betting. If Notre Dame and Navy don’t fix the defensive issues that plagued them last week, this one could be a high scoring affair as well. That said, the total has gone ‘under’ in four of Navy’s last five games on the road and five of Notre Dame’s last six in South Bend.

The weather forecast is for mostly sunny skies and cool temps in the upper-40s for the contest. The Irish will next head to Winston-Salem for a matchup with Wake Forest; Navy will host Troy.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-24-2011, 07:27 PM

Nebraska Cornhuskers Host Michigan State Spartans

Suddenly, the Michigan State Spartans rule the Big Ten roost. That's certainly good news for Mark Dantonio's club that finishes off a very tough October schedule this Saturday at the Nebraska Cornhuskers.

But State's recent run that has the Spartans the top-ranked Big Ten school in the latest BCS rankings is bad news for the conference. Michigan State (6-1) moved up five places to 11th following the win over Wisconsin, with Nebraska (6-1) the next highest from the Big Ten in the BCS at 14th.

Michigan State is also 11th in the latest Don Best Linemakers Poll, up two places from a week ago. Wisconsin still sits ahead of the Spartans on that list at eighth after ranking No. 5 last week.

The Badgers' defeat left the conference without an undefeated squad, and it's very doubtful that the Big Ten – along with the Big East and ACC – will be able to push a one-loss school into the BCS Championship. There are scenarios in which the ultimate Big Ten champ could get into the title tilt in New Orleans on Jan. 9, 2012, but it would require wild ends to the SEC, Pac-12 and Big 12 schedules.

You can't blame Kirk Cousins and his teammates for that after they knocked off Wisconsin last week in a thriller at Spartan Stadium. Michigan State fell behind the Badgers 14-0 in the first quarter, but quickly overcame the deficit with a 23-14 halftime lead thanks to a safety and blocked punt in the second quarter.

The contest appeared to be headed to overtime when Russell Wilson and Wisconsin knotted the scoreboard 31 apiece with less than 90 seconds to play. But Cousins made one last desperate heave as time expired, and after the play was reviewed, his 44-yard Hail Mary to Keith Nichol stood for a 37-31 Spartans victory.

Allowing a team 443 total yards of offense is not generally considered a fine defensive showing, but MSU's effort was the second-fewest yards the Badgers have accumulated this season. Wisconsin was definitely its own worst enemy with the Spartans scoring nine points directly off the safety and blocked punt, and adding a touchdown on the quick drive that followed the possession change after the safety.

Michigan State still emerged from the game as the country's second-ranked defense allowing just over 220 yards per game. The Spartans' stop unit is second in pass defense (134.0 YPG) and eighth in rush defense (88.9 YPG), and those numbers will be put to the test this Saturday against a 'Huskers squad that is seventh in the nation averaging 261 yards per game on the ground.

The Spartans will have a key starter back to aid the effort. William Gholston missed the contest against the Badgers when the Big Ten suspended the 6-foot-7, 280-pound defensive end for a game following two personal fouls in MSU's win the week before over Michigan.

Michigan State's second-team defense figures to present more of a roadblock for Nebraska's running game than what Big Red encountered last week in Minnesota. Rex Burkhead paced a 346-yard team effort on the ground with 117 yards of his own, his fourth 100+ yard game of the campaign. The Cornhuskers took a 34-0 lead into halftime, a score that could have been even more lopsided if not for a couple of stalled drives that ended in short field goals.

Bo Pelini came off the throttle a bit in the second half, and he knows he will not be able to rely on just his ground game this Saturday. Sophomore quarterback Taylor Martinez has not shown much ability in stretching Nebraska's passing game downfield, leaving the Black Shirts on defense with the task of keeping Cousins and the Spartans' offense off the field.

Nebraska needs this one if the 'Huskers are going to stay in the hunt for a spot in the Big Ten Championship. Michigan State leads the Legends Division with a 3-0 conference record, the Cornhuskers one of three teams just behind at 2-1. The Spartans just have one more major test after this game, a Nov. 12 trip to play Iowa, another of the 2-1 teams trailing MSU.

Penn State sits atop the Leaders Division with a perfect 4-0 mark in Big Ten play. The Nittany Lions are just now getting into the meat of their conference slate, however, with a home tilt against Nebraska in a couple of weeks followed by away contests against Ohio State and Wisconsin.

This will be the first conference meeting between the Cornhuskers and Spartans who met three times from 1995-2003. Nebraska won and covered each of those three clashes, and the college football oddsmakers like Big Red again this Saturday with the Cornhuskers 4½-point favorites after the line opened at 3½. State is 5-2 beating the spread this season with Nebraska a mirror image at 2-5.

The early forecast calls for a clear, crisp afternoon in Lincoln this Saturday, with temperatures at kickoff (12:00 p.m. ET) in the mid-50s and not getting much warmer. ESPN will broadcast the affair leading into its coverage of a crucial Big 12 showdown in Manhattan between Kansas State and Oklahoma.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-24-2011, 07:28 PM

Rutgers Seeks First Win Over West Virginia Mountaineers

Heading into Week 9 of the NCAA football betting season, the Big East standings are a big mess. Six of the eight teams already have one loss, and only one team is still undefeated.

The jumble will start to work itself out in the chase for a bid to the Orange Bowl, beginning this Saturday afternoon when the Rutgers Scarlet Knights take on the West Virginia Mountaineers.

ABC will have regional coverage of the game in parts of the country at 3:30 p.m. (ET). The rest of the country can catch this Big East battle from Piscataway on ESPN GamePlan.

With the rest of the Big East more or less mired in mediocrity, West Virginia (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS) seems to be the last team in this conference with a shot to end the year ranked in the Top 25. As of this week, the Mountaineers are No. 25 in the BCS rankings and are tied at No. 27 in the Don Best Linemakers Poll.

No other team from the Big East is rated in our Top 40.

Normally when you think of the Mountaineers of recent years, you have to think of men like Pat White, Noel Devine and Steve Slaton who were running the ball all over the place. Not this year, though.

Geno Smith is more or less a statue in the pocket, but he is having a career year with his arm. He has thrown for 2,497 yards and 18 TDs against five INTs in just seven games, and Smith is leading the nation's fifth-ranked passing attack at 374.4 YPG.

You also think of WVU as having a tough defense. Again, perhaps not so much this year.

Last week's loss to the Syracuse Orange at the Carrier Dome marked the third time this year that a team has scored at least 31 on this defense, and the second time that a team has scored at least 47. The Mountaineers are allowing 25.4 PPG this season, No. 59 in the country.

To understand just how different this team is from the 2010 bunch, you only need to look at the raw numbers. In 13 games last year, including a bowl loss to the North Carolina State Wolfpack, West Virginia allowed a grand total of 176 points. This year, it has already conceded 178 points in nearly half the games.

Greg Schiano and his Scarlet Knights (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) probably don't have their most talented team ever either, but a chance to go to the BCS for the first time in school history remains if they can win this game.

Still, the Rutgers offense was just dreadful in last week's 16-14 loss to the Louisville Cardinals. It marked the lowest offensive output of the season, which is really saying something for a team that is only averaging 28.0 PPG and 327.9 YPG.

The Scarlet Knights are winning games this year with their defense, which is No. 9 in the land in scoring at 16.0 PPG. They haven't faced an offense that is likely to finish the year in the Top 25 like West Virginia should, which could make this an interesting challenge.

The Mountaineers are favored by 6 ½-points on the road on Saturday afternoon, but that number is down from the 7 ½-points at the open on Sunday night.

Should Rutgers pull off the upset, it would be the Knights' first win in this series in team history. Last year, West Virginia won 35-14 in Morgantown, but three of the prior four meetings were decided by a seven or fewer points.

It's going to be a cold weekend in the Garden State, but at least it should be dry. High temperatures are only expected to reach right around 50 degrees.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-24-2011, 07:31 PM

Down to Eight

October 23, 2011

For the second week in a row, the Sooners helped out the sportsbooks by failing to cover the point-spread. The difference this week was No. 3 Oklahoma also lost outright. Bob Stoops and company fell behind early and could never catch up in their 41-38 upset loss to Texas Tech. The Red Raiders opened as 24-point underdogs last Sunday but the closing number was 29, which told you that the betting public was trying to squeeze another against the spread victory out of Oklahoma. It’s rare to see money-line odds when you have a spread close to the 30, but most major offshore outfits had the Red Raiders listed between 25 and 30/1 (Bet $100 to win $3,000).
Oklahoma wasn’t the only unbeaten Top-10 school to go down in Week 8. The other was No. 4 Wisconsin, who lost on a Hail Mary pass to Michigan State, 37-31. The Badgers jumped out to a 14-0 lead in East Lansing but the Spartans rallied with 23 straight points to close the first-half. Wisconsin managed to tie the game at 31-31 late before losing on the final play. The line opened at seven but was spiked up to 9 ½ in the middle of the week before closing back at seven.

Even though the Sooners and Badgers went down, gamblers still could’ve produced a profit by riding the Top 10 ranked schools in the recent AP Poll. Including the above losses, the group went 8-2 straight up and 6-4 against the spread.

With eight weeks in the books, we have eight schools still undefeated.

Alabama (8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS) – Nick Saban’s team looked sluggish against Tennessee, but managed to cover again with a 31-0 burst in the second-half for a 37-6 victory. Five of eight opponents held to seven points or less.

LSU (8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS) – Gamblers witnessed another wire-to-wire cover for Les Miles and the Tigers as they stomped Auburn 45-10. All the talk in Baton Rouge and nationally is about LSU’s defense, but the team is averaging 39.2 PPG.

Clemson (8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS) – Three of the final four games for the Tigers are on the road, including a tough test against Georgia Tech this Saturday. Gamblers betting the Clemson-Over correlated parlay have seen that ticket cash five times this season.

Oklahoma State (7-0, 6-1 ATS) – Six straight covers for OSU! The Cowboys should be favored in next four games but will they be laying points to Oklahoma on Dec. 3 in Stillwater?

Kansas State (7-0, 6-1 ATS) – The Wildcats could be next to go down. The next four games are against Oklahoma, at Oklahoma State, Texas A&M and at Texas. Good Luck coach Snyder!

Houston (7-0, 5-2 ATS) – The Cougars next three opponents (Rice, UAB, Tulane) are a combined 5-17. Houston should be unbeaten heading into SMU, Tulsa to close the season and then it looks like a conference championship against a quality Southern Mississippi team.

Stanford (7-0 SU, 7-0 ATS) – This team is a covering machine. It will be fun to see the Cardinal travel to USC this weekend. After the Trojans, Stanford should get a likely win at Oregon State before the Pac 12 showdown versus Oregon.

Boise State (7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS) – Even though the Broncos didn’t look dominant against Air Force (37-26), they still got a win. Make a note that Boise is 4-0 both SU and ATS on the road, with a trip to UNLV scheduled for next weekend. And another note, gamblers might not be backing Boise as much this year due to the Mountain West Conference having no ties with ESPN. Versus does pick up some action, but the reach and start times are much different.

SEC Showdown

The hype for the SEC West battle Alabama and LSU has already started, even though the contest won’t be played until Nov. 5 from Tuscaloosa. One major offshore, 5Dimes, opened Alabama as a four-point home favorite against LSU.

Other Observations

Virginia Tech (7-1 SU, 2-6 ATS) is quietly poised for another spot in the ACC Championship. The Nov. 10 matchup at Georgia Tech should do it for Frank Beamer and company.

The rumors about Joe Paterno’s exit from Penn State continue and most sources are saying it will happen after this season. Right now, the Nittany Lions own the best overall record (7-1) in the Big Ten. Still, the final four games are tough, especially road trips to Ohio State and Wisconsin.

Total Watch

Under Teams

Temple (7-1)
Penn State (6-1-1)
Virginia (6-1)
Rutgers (6-1)
Boston College (6-1)
Arkansas State (6-1)

Over Teams

Air Force (7-0)
TCU (6-1)
Arizona State (6-1)
Kansas (6-1)
West Virginia (6-1)

Luck will go where?

Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck is expected to be the No. 1 pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. With all the publicity on the gun slinger and the enormous amount of bad teams in pro football, a lot of pundits are talking about teams tanking to get a chance to draft Luck. With that being said, our friends at BetOnline.com have posted odds.

Which team will be awarded the #1 pick in 2012 NFL draft?

Indianapolis Colts +265
Miami Dolphins +300
St. Louis Rams +340
Jacksonville Jaguars +350
Carolina Panthers +550
Denver Broncos +650
Minnesota Vikings +650
Arizona Cardinals +950
Field (Any other team) +850

**StarDust Bum** · 10-24-2011, 07:33 PM

Alabama made favorite over LSU

October 23, 2011

The hype for the SEC West battle Alabama and LSU has already started, even though the contest won’t be played until Saturday Nov. 5 from Tuscaloosa.
A couple major offshore outfits made an early line on the game.

-- 5Dimes opened Alabama as a 4-point home favorite

-- Pinnacle opened Alabama as a 3 ½-point home favorite

**StarDust Bum** · 10-24-2011, 07:35 PM

Upsets help books cash

October 24, 2011

Chalk a Saturday win up for the Las Vegas sports books. It may have taken one of the biggest upsets in a decade to help get it, but the losing streak is over. Last weekend’s college football action not only saw Oklahoma as a 29-point favorite lose 41-38 at home to Texas Tech, but they got plenty of help from 24 other underdogs too.
For the last few weeks the sports books have been getting buried and most of it has to do with all the public favorites coming together in big parlays. Last week, the sports books got a nice mix of favorites only going 25-25. We’ve seen balanced decisions like this for most of the season, but the biggest difference maker was actually having a few of the popular top-ranked teams not cover.

Of the 25 underdogs that covered in last week’s college football action, 16 of them won outright. Of those 16 games, six were double-digit ‘dogs with Michigan State (+7 ½) and USC (+9 ½) coming close to jumping into that category.

Instead of playing it safe with a few teams, bettors kept coming strong with the teams that have been covering all year. While the regular sports book assassins like LSU (-21), Oregon (-30 ½), Alabama (-30), Oklahoma State (-6 ½) and Stanford (-20) all got there last week, teams like Boise State, Arkansas and Texas A&M threw a monkey wrench into bettors’ dreams of cashing in another 8-team parlay and were then stymied even more with Oklahoma falling.

Something was definitely brewing in the air even before the Sooners kicked off as there was almost a two-hour lightning storm delay. Once play began, thunder struck again with the Red Raiders early and often as they threw an insurmountable lead on the scoreboard. Oklahoma became the largest favored team to lose this season.

Not that one big loss has to do with anything else, but it does put something to file away in every bettors mind who was been covering all season with the big favorites. If it can happen to Oklahoma, it can happen to anyone. Bettors haven’t had to question any of their bets this season. Most could basically look at the top-10 rankings, fire away and come out with a nice parlay payout.

Others that helped the book’s included USC beating Notre Dame outright, Iowa not covering 23 ½ against Indiana and Hawaii (-21 ½) failing to cover the late ’get-back’ game against New Mexico State.

The books were also helped by not having the Thursday and Friday college games spilling over with high risk, which has happened the past few weeks. Almost everyone in town lost their bets when UAB beat Central Florida as a 16-point underdog on Thursday. Then on Friday, a very popular West Virginia (-14) squad was beat outright 49-23 at Syracuse.

For the first time all season, the books weren’t bombarded with extended liability on Saturday’s game before the games even started.

Stanford’s Pac 12 Blues

The coaches poll has Stanford No. 3, the writers have them No. 4, but the BCS computer formula, the one that matters, spits out No. 6. How is this possible? Even with Wisconsin and Oklahoma losing last week, the Cardinal still find themselves behind Clemson and Boise State.

The fact that Boise State is ahead of them shows how little respect the Pac 12 has within the BCS. Stanford can pile up 65 points against a good team like Washington and it still thinks less of them than Boise State struggling with Air Force.

If not for the Oklahoma loss, Stanford might be the story of the year, at least from Las Vegas’ perspective. They remain the only team to cover every spread this season (7-0 ATS) and they haven‘t even made bettors sweat. Sharp money came in late last week against Stanford and Washington hung around for the first quarter, but quarterback Andrew Luck is just so consistently good, he rarely has a bad series.

Between Stanford’s power running game and Luck’s accuracy, there doesn’t look to be many teams in football that can play with them. The Cardinal will get a test this week at USC and then welcome Oregon Nov. 12, but it doesn’t seem the like cards will fall their way in the BCS to make the title game.

In an effort to impress the BCS computers, look for Stanford to bury every team they can whenever possible. If they can pile up loads of points against the Pac 12’s best in USC and Oregon and then destroy Arizona State in the conference championship game, they may be able to impress in the same manner Oklahoma State has done and move up the ladder.

Here’s a look at three games this weekend that have BCS title ramifications:

Oklahoma (6-1) at Kansas State (7-0): The Wildcats find themselves No. 8 in the BCS and if they can take care of business this week as 13-point underdogs and carry that momentum next week into Oklahoma State with a win, they might find themselves sitting at No. 2 before their home game against Texas A&M. We may be getting ahead of ourselves because that’s a formidable task ahead of them, but they’ll be rewarded handsomely by running the table.

For the Sooners, they can begin their climb as a one loss team vying for the title game this week and hope that an impressive win on Dec. 3 at Oklahoma State is enough to push them past other one-loss teams, and even undefeated teams like Boise State and Stanford.

Baylor (4-2) at Oklahoma State (7-0): This game should produce the highest-scoring output of the weekend. The Cowboys are 16-point favorites and come in as the nation's second most prolific passing and scoring team. Should they beat Baylor, Kansas State and then Texas Tech, they’ll be set up perfectly for a home game against the Sooners. Should they complete that task unscathed, they’ll be set up for the title game with the winner of the LSU-Alabama game.

Clemson (8-0) at Georgia Tech (6-2): After two straight losses, the Yellow Jackets aren’t even ranked anymore. It would be hard to believe that even if Clemson ran the table they could stay ahead of Stanford should they beat Oregon and USC. Their only stumbling block looks to their season finale at South Carolina and then Virginia Tech in the ACC title game. They look to be on pace to be the conference representative in a BCS bowl and in store for another ACC whipping by Stanford, just like the Hokies got last season.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-24-2011, 07:37 PM

Pittsburgh hosts UConn on Wednesday night

CONNECTICUT HUSKIES (3-4)
at PITTSBURGH PANTHERS (3-4)

Kickoff: Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Pittsburgh -10

A pair of sub-.500 teams meet in a rare Wednesday night tilt, when Pittsburgh hosts Connecticut in what will be the last Big East meeting between the teams before the Panthers leave for the ACC.

After giving up 81 points in losses to Western Michigan and West Virginia, UConn posted a 16-10 win over USF before last week’s bye. Pittsburgh has lost four of five, scoring 12, 10 and 14 points in its past three defeats. UConn is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings with Pitt, including three SU wins as the underdog. The Panthers have allowed the most sacks in the nation (34) and have a minus-6 TO margin in the past two games. Since 2007, the Huskies are a stellar 20-10 ATS in Big East play. They also love being the underdogs, posting a 12-5 ATS mark (71%) over the past three seasons when getting points. Pittsburgh will likely win, but not by double-digits. The pick here is CONNECTICUT to cover.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also favors the Huskies:

Play Against - Home favorites (PITTSBURGH) - in conference games, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning. (93-47 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.4%, +41.3 units. Rating = 3*).

Although UConn has four losses already, three of those defeats have come by a touchdown or less. Junior QB Johnny McEntee isn’t going to remind people of Andrew Luck, but he is riding a string of four straight games without an interception in 120 pass attempts. Freshman RB Lyle McCombs has been the star of the Huskies, racking up his third 130-yard rushing game of his brief career in UConn’s 16-10 upset of South Florida in the last game. The Huskies defense has been pretty sound all year, holding five of seven opponents to less than 350 total yards. They rank ninth in the country in rushing defense (89 YPG), but 99th against the pass (262 YPG). However, Pittsburgh’s strength is rushing the football, so UConn should be able to keep the Panthers struggling offense at bay.

Pittsburgh ranks just 59th amongst FBS teams in rushing offense (158 YPG), but it has the nation’s No. 2 rusher in Ray Graham (134 rushing YPG). Graham has been effective in two career games against UConn, rushing for 128 yards on 24 carries (5.3 YPC), but he needs a lot more help from his teammates to get back in the win column. Pitt’s quarterbacks combined to complete 9-of-30 passes for 50 yards and 2 INT in the 26-14 to Utah in its last game. The Utes were ranked 100th in passing defense (268 YPG) entering that matchup. Panthers junior QB Tino Sunseri (5 TD, 7 INT) will likely remain the starter, but he has regressed in a big way after a solid 2010 campaign (16 TD, 9 INT). Sunseri is 18-of-39 for 165 yards, 0 TD and 3 INT in the past two games. On defense, the Panthers rank 95th against the pass (250 YPG), but have held their past four opponents to just 185 passing YPG.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-25-2011, 05:31 PM

Troy-FIU look to snap ATS skids on Tuesday

TROY TROJANS (2-4)
at FLORIDA INT'L GOLDEN PANTHERS (4-3)

Kickoff: Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Florida International -6

The two preseason favorites in the Sun Belt try to salvage disappointing seasons and climb up the conference standings when Troy visits Florida International on Tuesday night.

Neither of these schools has an ATS win in over a month, as both are suffering through four-game ATS losing skids. Troy’s offense has completely gone south in the past two games, as the Trojans have been outscored 69-27 during a two-game losing skid. FIU started the year 3-0, including victories over BCS schools Louisville and Central Florida, but the Golden Panthers are 1-3 SU (0-4 ATS) in their past four games, allowing 101 points in the three SU defeats. Although Troy has dominated this series, winning five of six games, FIU is 5-1 ATS including a 52-35 win at Troy last year. The Panthers rushed for 448 yards, as the versatile T.Y. Hilton was one of three players with over 100 rushing yards. The Trojans subpar defense has nobody that can stop Hilton, and he will be the difference on Tuesday night. Play on FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL to win and cover at home.

This two-star FoxSheets trend also favors the Golden Panthers:

Play Against - Road underdogs (TROY) - excellent passing team (>=275 PY/game) against a poor passing defense (230-275 PY/game). (51-24 over the last 5 seasons.) (68%, +24.6 units. Rating = 2*).

Troy’s offensive troubles started this summer when WRs Chip Reeves (515 rec. yds, 5 TD in 2010) and Jamel Johnson (258 rec. yds) were declared academically ineligible. QB Corey Robinson, who had 28 TD passes last year, has struggled this season with just 9 TD and 7 INT in six games. Robinson has found his go-to receiver though, as sophomore Eric Thomas is third in the Sun Belt in receiving yards (73 YPG). The Trojans running game ground to a complete halt their last time out against Louisiana-Monroe, as they rushed for minus-14 yards on 21 carries. Nobody on this team is averaging 40 rushing YPG this season. The defense continues to be torched by everybody, as Troy ranks 113th in total defense (461 YPG) and 110th in scoring (34.7 PPG).

FIU’s Hilton is having another superb season with a Sun Belt-leading 105 receiving YPG and 154 all-purpose YPG, which ranks second in the conference. In last year’s win over Troy, Hilton averaged 26.3 yards per carry, rushing for touchdowns of 80 and 61 yards. He also caught two passes for another 75 yards. Sophomore RB Kedrick Rhodes has been piling up the yards lately with 514 total yards (129 YPG) and 4 TD over the past four weeks. Senior RB Darriet Perry (330 rush yds, 5 TD) also had a huge game against Troy with 186 rushing yards (6.9 YPC) and a touchdown. But after racking up 187 yards and two scores in a two-game stretch, Perry carried the ball just five times for 12 yards in last week’s loss at Arkansas State. Senior QB Wesley Carroll, who tossed three touchdowns against the Trojans last year, has 7 TD and 2 INT this season.

FIU’s defense had done a nice job limiting the run (107 YPG, 25th in nation), before allowing Arkansas State to gallop for 238 yards in last week’s loss. The passing defense has been inconsistent, but has allowed only 304 yards (6.5 YPA) in the past two weeks.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-25-2011, 05:35 PM

Tuesday, October 25

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Troy - 8:00 PM ET Florida International -6 500

Florida International - Under 55 500

**StarDust Bum** · 10-25-2011, 11:16 PM

Luck, Stanford Travel To Meet Barkley, USC

The Stanford Cardinal take their undefeated record and BCS National Championship hopes on the road this Saturday for their biggest test of the season away from home when they take on the USC Trojans at the Coliseum.

Stanford is currently a 7 ½ point favorite on the Don Best odds screen. The game starts at 8:00 p.m. (ET) and will be televised nationally on ABC.

Saturday’s game will feature two of college football’s brightest stars at the quarterback position in Stanford’s Andrew Luck and USC’s Matt Barkley. Stanford is currently ranked No. 3 on the Don Best Linemakers Poll (they are No. 4 in the AP Poll) and USC is ranked No. 20 on both the Don Best Linemakers Poll and the AP Poll this week.

Stanford (7-0) is perfect both straight up and against the spread as Washington provided no contest whatsoever last week in a 65-21 blowout. Stanford has won every game this season by at least 26 points, averaging 48.6 points per game and allowing only 12.6 points per game.

Last Saturday’s win over Washington illustrated Stanford’s depth. While the Cardinal are best known for Luck at quarterback, they also have an excellent running game (which rushed for 446 yards against Washington and is ranked 17th in the country with 219.4 yards per game) and defense (Washington was averaging 37 points per game).

But Wisconsin looked just as good on both sides of the ball before their big road test against Michigan State; can Stanford pass its big test against USC?

USC (6-1) answered a lot of doubters’ questions with a huge win as a 10-point underdog at Notre Dame last Saturday. Not only did USC do an excellent job rushing the ball (racking up 219 yards), but for the second straight game the defense played extremely well.

Defensively, USC has allowed just 13 points per game, 38 rushing yards per game and 298 total yards per game in their road wins over California and Notre Dame. Monte Kiffin’s unit is coming around at the right time. With an offense averaging 30.1 points per game, USC could have a fighting chance for an upset at home this week if the defense continues to play at a high level.

Last season marked the first time in over a decade that Stanford was a favorite over USC, failing to cover a 10-point spread in a thrilling 37-35 win in Palo Alto. Stanford is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four games against USC, but the perception and make-up of these two teams has changed quite a bit with Jim Harbaugh building Stanford’s program up and NCAA sanctions knocking USC’s program down.

Until last year, Stanford had been a double-digit underdog in every game against the Trojans since 2002, and now they are a favorite on the road.

Both teams are 4-3 on the ‘under’ in totals betting this season, but fireworks tend to fly when these two teams meet. Seven of the last nine meetings between Stanford and USC have seen the ‘over’ cash, and each of the last three games have had 68 or more total points.

Saturday's total opened at 58 but has since settled in on the 60 mark.

Current weather forecasts call for a partly cloudy evening, but very little chance of any precipitation with a kickoff temp in the upper-60s.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-25-2011, 11:22 PM

Refocused Wisconsin Badgers Visit Ohio State Buckeyes

The Wisconsin Badgers need to quickly refocus their goals as they play the Ohio State Buckeyes on Saturday in another tough Big Ten road game.

Don Best has Wisconsin down to 7-point favorites after opening at 8 ½. The college football betting total is 50 ½-points and ESPN will broadcast at 8:00 p.m. (ET) from Ohio Stadium in Columbus.

The Badgers (6-1 straight up, 5-1-1 against the spread) are coming off a heartbreaking 37-31 loss at Michigan State on a final-play, Hail Mary. They have themselves to blame after seeing a 14-0 lead turn into a 31-17 deficit thanks partly to a safety and blocked punt for a TD. Wisconsin did make a dramatic comeback in the fourth quarter to tie the game, but it was all for naught.

Wisconsin was a 7-point road favorite against MSU and a cover looked very unlikely by halftime. It was its first spread failure in 14 games, going 12-0-1 ATS in its prior 13.

The 68 combined points scored also went way ‘over’ the 50 ½-point total. The ‘over’ is 5-2 for Wisconsin this year and 12-4-1 in its last 17 overall.

The loss plummeted the Badgers from No. 6 to No. 15 in the BCS, essentially ending their national title hopes. The Don Best Linemakers Poll was far more forgiving, dropping them from No. 5 to No. 8. They now need to refocus their goal on winning the Big Ten, a very achievable scenario.

The question for coach Bret Bielema is how did the nation’s previously top-ranked scoring offense (50.2 PPG) get held to three points for a 44 minute stretch of last game?

Quarterback Russell Wilson was part of the problem, throwing a pick while driving for a 21-0 lead and uncharacteristically missing open receivers, although he does get credit for leading the comeback. Losing top running back Montee Ball (head injury) for part of the game also hurt.

The biggest culprit could have been the easy, early season schedule that included five home games and a neutral site contest. It’s a daunting task playing a very tough opponent in an opening road game, and it took time to recover after getting punched in the mouth.

Wisconsin won’t try do anything special offensively Saturday, mostly running with Ball and James White and having Wilson throw 20-25 times. The team out-rushed Michigan State 220-109, helping to win the total yardage battle 443-399.

The Buckeyes (4-3 SU and ATS) are rested and ready having last played at then BCS No. 23 Illinois on October 15, a 17-7 win as 3 ½-point ‘dogs.

The 24 combined points scored went way ‘under’ the 44-point total. The ‘under’ is 5-2 for Ohio State this year with the offense scoring 23.3 PPG (88th nationally) and the defense allowing 16.3 PPG (12th nationally).

Interim coach Luke Fickell went with the old ‘three yards and a cloud of dust’ game plan of Woody Hayes against Illinois. The Buckeyes were boosted by the first outing this season for suspended back Dan Herron (114 yards), running the ball 51 times and throwing it four.

True freshman quarterback Braxton Miller had just 17 passing yards and it’s going to be very hard to beat Wisconsin without more balance. The Badgers did have a lot of trouble against quarterback Kirk Cousins last week (290 passing yards), but have had success against running quarterbacks like Miller.

OSU has a talented defense that will try to get physical with the Badgers like MSU did. However, it’s almost impossible to keep Wisconsin down for all four quarters and Wilson should be extra motivated after his Heisman hopes likely ended last week. Stanford’s Andrew Luck is the current heavy favorite.

The Buckeyes are 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) at home this year. All were easy opponents except the most recent one against Michigan State (10-7 loss). Senior Joe Bauserman and Miller both played last game and it wouldn’t be shocking if Miller didn’t last this whole game. Sophomore Kenny Guiton is another possibility for playing time.

Ohio State is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 home games overall. The ‘under’ is 5-1 in its last six at home (3-1 this year).

The Buckeyes would like some revenge as Wisconsin beat them 31-18 in Madison last year, knocking them from the No. 1 spot in the nation. The Badgers lost the last two in Columbus in 2009 (31-13) and 2007 (38-17), most recently winning there in 2004.

Weather in Columbus should be cool and could even fall into the 30s.

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