NFL Report (Excel)

[NEJAKE]

Thanks Dave, I thought for sure you'd throw out Balty and put NE in the superbowl!

[aces r wild]

GL and Thanks for posting!

[LeRoy]

bump

[Kaptain]

gl DAVE....thanks

[jt4545]

A big thanks for all the hard work good luck

[dave T]

Dave,

Thought you would cancel INDY and TEN if it fall into the different angle?

There were more angles on Ind than on Ten

-dt

[dave T]

Good stuff Mr. T.

Keep em coming, would love to know what that angle 18 is. Impressive!

Yeah, it is impressive. Another solid winner with the Rams over Saints. Although it also picked the Colts, angle #8 was on the other side. Angle 8 is very solid. It's not so much that it's 9-0, but that the average COVER is nearly 17 points and its rationale is very good. It picks BLOWOUTS, and when the game was 20-0 it looked like it would be.


-dt

[dave T]

Thanks Dave, I thought for sure you'd throw out Balty and put NE in the superbowl!

It's all numbers man, I'm not smart enough to make the judgement call on that one. Both good teams, but NE's D needs to step it up

dt

[The Lovedoc]

thanks for all the hard work dave!

[dave T]

NFL Excel runs for 9 Weeks beginning Week 7 and culminating Week 15. These are 21 angles, some of them value-based and some technical.

The value-based angles are 1, 2, 3, 4, and 7. Angles 5 & 6 are technical in nature.

Angles 8-21 are all technical, and then sub-divided according to their strongest situational setting.

I'm not posting the angles themselves, just the plays, along with some other stuff here and there.

The record is parenthesis is the 2011 record this far. Then, the Week 9 Picks.

Angle 01: (2-3) DEN
Angle 02: (0-1)
Angle 03: (1-2) SFO
Angle 04: (0-1) SDG
Angle 05: (0-0) WAS
Angle 06: (0-1) CHI
Angle 07: (1-1)

Angle 08: (2-0)
Angle 09:
Angle 10:
Angle 11: (1-1)
Angle 12: (1-1) DEN
Angle 13: (1-1)
Angle 14:
Angle 15:
Angle 16:
Angle 17:
Angle 18:
Angle 19:
Angle 20:
Angle 21:


2011 RECORD:
Total Units: 8-10
Total Games: 6-7
Cancel outs: 3-3

Week 9 Plays Pending:
Units 4
Games 3
Cancel outs: 1-1

Consensus
2* DEN
1* SDG
1* CHI


Last Week Tip of the Week went 1-0 with MIN. Dogs of +3 or more in this angle from last week are 17-2 ATS the L5Y; now they're 18-2.

Week 9 Tip of the Week:

*Go with team that OUTYARDED their opponent last week by 100> yards if they lost that game by 10 points or more.

5-Years: 12-2 ATS

Breakdown:
Road 9-0
Road Dog 8-0 w/avg COVER of 14.0
Non-Div Road Dog 2-0 w/avg COVER OF 16.7

Week 9: SEATTLE



NFL EXCEL after Week 8, going into Week 9.

PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS:

AFC

EAST BUF
NORTH BAL
SOUTH HOU
WEST SDG
WC 1 CIN
WC 2 NE


NFC

EAST PHI
NORTH GRB
SOUTH NOR
WEST SFO
WC 1 DET
WC 2 CHI


AFC CHAMP BAL OVER BUF
NFC CHAMP GRB OVER SFO

SB GRB OVER BAL


NFL EXCEL WEEK 9 LINE

DAL -7
KC -3'
NOR -11
HOU -10
SFO -5
BUF -6'
ATL -5'
OAK -7
CIN -1'
GRB -3
ARI -8'
NE -5'
PIT PK
PHI -4


My Personal Favorite Picks (1-1)

Last Week: IND
Week 9: WISCONSIN -25, SAINTS -8



WEEK 9 EXCEL POWER RATINGS

01 GRB 95.3
02 SFO 94.9
03 BAL 94.7
04 DET 94.7
05 NOR 93.4

06 BUF 93.2
07 HOU 93.1
08 CIN 92.4
09 NE 91.7
10 PIT 91.7

11 PHI 91.1
12 NYJ 89.9
13 CHI 89.9
14 SDG 89.4
15 NYG 89.4
16 DAL 88.4

17 ATL 88.1
18 TEN 88.0
19 CAR 87.5
20 OAK 87.1
21 WAS 86.8
22 MIN 86.6

23 CLE 86.1
24 TAM 85.5
25 ARI 85.2
26 KC 84.4
27 SEA 84.3

28 JAX 84.0
29 MIA 83.7
30 DEN 83.3
31 STL 79.8
32 IND 79.4


Good Luck,
dave

[tech fan]

IS OUTYARDED EVEN A WORD LOL JUST JOKING MAN THANKS AGAIN I KNOW THIS IS A LOT OF WORK.THANKS FOR KEEPING THESE FREE CAUSE I KNOW IT'S HARD TO.You are the man appreciate it.

[NEJAKE]

It's all numbers man, I'm not smart enough to make the judgement call on that one. Both good teams, but NE's D needs to step it up

dt

You got that right Dave!!

[bb33]

dave-
has the system of teams scoring 30+ and giving up 10 or less 2 weeks in a row then playing out of conf come up yet?

thanks for your work

[jt4545]

Thanks and good luck

[dave T]

dave-
has the system of teams scoring 30+ and giving up 10 or less 2 weeks in a row then playing out of conf come up yet?

thanks for your work

No not yet. It came up a handful of times last year and they won. I think 3-0. I remember GRB +14 over the PATS and CINCY +8 over the CHARGERS.

Not yet this year though. It should average about two games per year. It use to average less than that, but in 2002 teams started playing more non-div games.

There have been 153 PEAKS the last 5 seasons, which is about 11.95% of all games played.

.1195 x .1195 (back to back peaks) times 140 Non-Div Games (from Week 3 on) gives you right at 2 games per season.

Thru week 9 peaks are running a little above average this year. There have been 19 peaks. The average thru wk 9 is 15.2.

Good Luck,
dave




NFL Excel runs for 9 Weeks beginning Week 7 and culminating Week 15. These are 21 angles, some of them value-based and some technical.

The value-based angles are 1, 2, 3, 4, and 7. Angles 5 & 6 are technical in nature.

Angles 8-21 are all technical, and then sub-divided according to their strongest situational setting.

I'm not posting the angles themselves, just the plays, along with some other stuff here and there.

The record is parenthesis is the 2011 record this far. Then, the Week 10 Picks.

Angle 01: (3-3) DEN
Angle 02: (0-1)
Angle 03: (2-2) BAL, HOU, WAS
Angle 04: (0-2)
Angle 05: (0-1)
Angle 06: (1-1) WAS
Angle 07: (1-1) DET, SEA

Angle 08: (2-0)
Angle 09:
Angle 10:
Angle 11: (1-1)
Angle 12: (2-1)
Angle 13: (1-1) WAS
Angle 14:
Angle 15:
Angle 16:
Angle 17:
Angle 18:
Angle 19:
Angle 20:
Angle 21:


2011 RECORD:
Total Units: 11-11
Total Games: 8-8
Cancel outs: 4-4

Week 10 Plays Pending:
Units 6
Games 4
Cancel outs: 1-1

Consensus
3* WAS
1* DEN
1* DET
1* HOU

Last Week Tip of the Week went 1-0 with SEA. Teams that lost by double digits last week despite outyarding their opponent by 100> yards are 12-2 the last 5 years including 9-0 on the Road. Now they're 13-2 (10-0 on Road.

Week 10 Tip of the Week:

*Go with a Top 5 Team in Net Yards Per Point if last week's performance was 5> worse than their season average in both OYPP and DYPP.

5-Years: 6-0 ATS (avg cover 15.67)

Breakdown:
Road 4-0 (16.0)
Non-Div 5-0 (18.7)
Dog 2-0 (18.5)

Week 10: BUFFALO


NFL EXCEL after Week 9, going into Week 10.

PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS:

AFC

EAST BUF
NORTH BAL
SOUTH HOU
WEST SDG
WC 1 CIN
WC 2 PIT


NFC

EAST PHI
NORTH DET
SOUTH NOR
WEST SFO
WC 1 GRB
WC 2 CHI


AFC CHAMP BAL OVER HOU
NFC CHAMP SFO OVER DET

SB SFO OVER BAL


NFL EXCEL WEEK 9 LINE

SDG -5'
PHI -7'
NOR -1
BAL -7
DAL -1
CAR -3
DET -1'
CIN -4
CLE -7'
KC -2
HOU -5'
JAX -2
MIA -3
SFO -8'
NYJ -3
GRB -11


My Personal Favorite Picks (3-1)

Last Week: WISC, SAINTS
Week 10: T-TECH +17, PATRIOTS +1


WEEK 10 EXCEL POWER RATINGS

01 SFO 94.8
02 DET 94.7
03 GRB 94.5
04 BAL 94.2
05 HOU 93.9

06 NOR 93.6
07 CIN 92.5
08 BUF 91.6
09 PIT 91.3
10 NE 91.1

11 NYJ 91
12 PHI 90.5
13 CHI 90.2
14 ATL 90.0
15 NYG 89.6
16 DAL 89.3

17 SDG 88.8
18 TEN 87.7
19 CAR 87.6
20 MIN 86.8
21 WAS 86.6
22 MIA 86.5

23 OAK 86.5
24 ARI 86.1
25 CLE 85.3
26 TAM 85.2
27 DEN 85.0

28 SEA 84.3
29 JAX 84.2
30 KC 83.8
31 STL 80.7
32 IND 79.1


Good Luck,
dave