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  • #31
    Thanks Dave, I thought for sure you'd throw out Balty and put NE in the superbowl!
    Nothing is as far away as one minute ago.

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    • #32
      GL and Thanks for posting!

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      • #33
        bump

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        • #34
          gl DAVE....thanks


          Don't make me go Cajun on your Ass!

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          • #35
            A big thanks for all the hard work good luck
            jt4545


            Fat Tuesday's - Home

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            • #36
              Originally posted by yabmane View Post
              Dave,

              Thought you would cancel INDY and TEN if it fall into the different angle?
              There were more angles on Ind than on Ten

              -dt

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              • #37
                Originally posted by zeib10 View Post
                Good stuff Mr. T.

                Keep em coming, would love to know what that angle 18 is. Impressive!
                Yeah, it is impressive. Another solid winner with the Rams over Saints. Although it also picked the Colts, angle #8 was on the other side. Angle 8 is very solid. It's not so much that it's 9-0, but that the average COVER is nearly 17 points and its rationale is very good. It picks BLOWOUTS, and when the game was 20-0 it looked like it would be.


                -dt

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                • #38
                  Originally posted by NEJAKE View Post
                  Thanks Dave, I thought for sure you'd throw out Balty and put NE in the superbowl!
                  It's all numbers man, I'm not smart enough to make the judgement call on that one. Both good teams, but NE's D needs to step it up

                  dt

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                  • #39
                    thanks for all the hard work dave!

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      NFL Excel runs for 9 Weeks beginning Week 7 and culminating Week 15. These are 21 angles, some of them value-based and some technical.

                      The value-based angles are 1, 2, 3, 4, and 7. Angles 5 & 6 are technical in nature.

                      Angles 8-21 are all technical, and then sub-divided according to their strongest situational setting.

                      I'm not posting the angles themselves, just the plays, along with some other stuff here and there.

                      The record is parenthesis is the 2011 record this far. Then, the Week 9 Picks.

                      Angle 01: (2-3) DEN
                      Angle 02: (0-1)
                      Angle 03: (1-2) SFO
                      Angle 04: (0-1) SDG
                      Angle 05: (0-0) WAS
                      Angle 06: (0-1) CHI
                      Angle 07: (1-1)

                      Angle 08: (2-0)
                      Angle 09:
                      Angle 10:
                      Angle 11: (1-1)
                      Angle 12: (1-1) DEN
                      Angle 13: (1-1)
                      Angle 14:
                      Angle 15:
                      Angle 16:
                      Angle 17:
                      Angle 18:
                      Angle 19:
                      Angle 20:
                      Angle 21:


                      2011 RECORD:
                      Total Units: 8-10
                      Total Games: 6-7
                      Cancel outs: 3-3

                      Week 9 Plays Pending:
                      Units 4
                      Games 3
                      Cancel outs: 1-1

                      Consensus
                      2* DEN
                      1* SDG
                      1* CHI


                      Last Week Tip of the Week went 1-0 with MIN. Dogs of +3 or more in this angle from last week are 17-2 ATS the L5Y; now they're 18-2.

                      Week 9 Tip of the Week:

                      *Go with team that OUTYARDED their opponent last week by 100> yards if they lost that game by 10 points or more.

                      5-Years: 12-2 ATS

                      Breakdown:
                      Road 9-0
                      Road Dog 8-0 w/avg COVER of 14.0
                      Non-Div Road Dog 2-0 w/avg COVER OF 16.7

                      Week 9: SEATTLE



                      NFL EXCEL after Week 8, going into Week 9.

                      PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS:

                      AFC

                      EAST BUF
                      NORTH BAL
                      SOUTH HOU
                      WEST SDG
                      WC 1 CIN
                      WC 2 NE


                      NFC

                      EAST PHI
                      NORTH GRB
                      SOUTH NOR
                      WEST SFO
                      WC 1 DET
                      WC 2 CHI


                      AFC CHAMP BAL OVER BUF
                      NFC CHAMP GRB OVER SFO

                      SB GRB OVER BAL


                      NFL EXCEL WEEK 9 LINE

                      DAL -7
                      KC -3'
                      NOR -11
                      HOU -10
                      SFO -5
                      BUF -6'
                      ATL -5'
                      OAK -7
                      CIN -1'
                      GRB -3
                      ARI -8'
                      NE -5'
                      PIT PK
                      PHI -4


                      My Personal Favorite Picks (1-1)

                      Last Week: IND
                      Week 9: WISCONSIN -25, SAINTS -8



                      WEEK 9 EXCEL POWER RATINGS

                      01 GRB 95.3
                      02 SFO 94.9
                      03 BAL 94.7
                      04 DET 94.7
                      05 NOR 93.4

                      06 BUF 93.2
                      07 HOU 93.1
                      08 CIN 92.4
                      09 NE 91.7
                      10 PIT 91.7

                      11 PHI 91.1
                      12 NYJ 89.9
                      13 CHI 89.9
                      14 SDG 89.4
                      15 NYG 89.4
                      16 DAL 88.4

                      17 ATL 88.1
                      18 TEN 88.0
                      19 CAR 87.5
                      20 OAK 87.1
                      21 WAS 86.8
                      22 MIN 86.6

                      23 CLE 86.1
                      24 TAM 85.5
                      25 ARI 85.2
                      26 KC 84.4
                      27 SEA 84.3

                      28 JAX 84.0
                      29 MIA 83.7
                      30 DEN 83.3
                      31 STL 79.8
                      32 IND 79.4


                      Good Luck,
                      dave
                      Last edited by dave T; 11-01-2011, 07:03 PM.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        IS OUTYARDED EVEN A WORD LOL JUST JOKING MAN THANKS AGAIN I KNOW THIS IS A LOT OF WORK.THANKS FOR KEEPING THESE FREE CAUSE I KNOW IT'S HARD TO.You are the man appreciate it.
                        MLB 2012***100-98 +$215 OR +2.15 UNITS
                        HUGE PLAYS 2-1

                        NFL 2011-2012** 6-10
                        0-0TOP PLAYS

                        NCAA FBL 2011-2012**** 26-23

                        4-1 TOP PLAYS


                        GOY 33-12 ALL SPORTS

                        AS of 6/3/12

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                        • #42
                          Originally posted by dave T View Post
                          It's all numbers man, I'm not smart enough to make the judgement call on that one. Both good teams, but NE's D needs to step it up

                          dt
                          You got that right Dave!!
                          Nothing is as far away as one minute ago.

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            dave-
                            has the system of teams scoring 30+ and giving up 10 or less 2 weeks in a row then playing out of conf come up yet?

                            thanks for your work

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Thanks and good luck
                              jt4545


                              Fat Tuesday's - Home

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Originally posted by bb33 View Post
                                dave-
                                has the system of teams scoring 30+ and giving up 10 or less 2 weeks in a row then playing out of conf come up yet?

                                thanks for your work
                                No not yet. It came up a handful of times last year and they won. I think 3-0. I remember GRB +14 over the PATS and CINCY +8 over the CHARGERS.

                                Not yet this year though. It should average about two games per year. It use to average less than that, but in 2002 teams started playing more non-div games.

                                There have been 153 PEAKS the last 5 seasons, which is about 11.95% of all games played.

                                .1195 x .1195 (back to back peaks) times 140 Non-Div Games (from Week 3 on) gives you right at 2 games per season.

                                Thru week 9 peaks are running a little above average this year. There have been 19 peaks. The average thru wk 9 is 15.2.

                                Good Luck,
                                dave




                                NFL Excel runs for 9 Weeks beginning Week 7 and culminating Week 15. These are 21 angles, some of them value-based and some technical.

                                The value-based angles are 1, 2, 3, 4, and 7. Angles 5 & 6 are technical in nature.

                                Angles 8-21 are all technical, and then sub-divided according to their strongest situational setting.

                                I'm not posting the angles themselves, just the plays, along with some other stuff here and there.

                                The record is parenthesis is the 2011 record this far. Then, the Week 10 Picks.

                                Angle 01: (3-3) DEN
                                Angle 02: (0-1)
                                Angle 03: (2-2) BAL, HOU, WAS
                                Angle 04: (0-2)
                                Angle 05: (0-1)
                                Angle 06: (1-1) WAS
                                Angle 07: (1-1) DET, SEA

                                Angle 08: (2-0)
                                Angle 09:
                                Angle 10:
                                Angle 11: (1-1)
                                Angle 12: (2-1)
                                Angle 13: (1-1) WAS
                                Angle 14:
                                Angle 15:
                                Angle 16:
                                Angle 17:
                                Angle 18:
                                Angle 19:
                                Angle 20:
                                Angle 21:


                                2011 RECORD:
                                Total Units: 11-11
                                Total Games: 8-8
                                Cancel outs: 4-4

                                Week 10 Plays Pending:
                                Units 6
                                Games 4
                                Cancel outs: 1-1

                                Consensus
                                3* WAS
                                1* DEN
                                1* DET
                                1* HOU

                                Last Week Tip of the Week went 1-0 with SEA. Teams that lost by double digits last week despite outyarding their opponent by 100> yards are 12-2 the last 5 years including 9-0 on the Road. Now they're 13-2 (10-0 on Road.

                                Week 10 Tip of the Week:

                                *Go with a Top 5 Team in Net Yards Per Point if last week's performance was 5> worse than their season average in both OYPP and DYPP.

                                5-Years: 6-0 ATS (avg cover 15.67)

                                Breakdown:
                                Road 4-0 (16.0)
                                Non-Div 5-0 (18.7)
                                Dog 2-0 (18.5)

                                Week 10: BUFFALO


                                NFL EXCEL after Week 9, going into Week 10.

                                PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS:

                                AFC

                                EAST BUF
                                NORTH BAL
                                SOUTH HOU
                                WEST SDG
                                WC 1 CIN
                                WC 2 PIT


                                NFC

                                EAST PHI
                                NORTH DET
                                SOUTH NOR
                                WEST SFO
                                WC 1 GRB
                                WC 2 CHI


                                AFC CHAMP BAL OVER HOU
                                NFC CHAMP SFO OVER DET

                                SB SFO OVER BAL


                                NFL EXCEL WEEK 9 LINE

                                SDG -5'
                                PHI -7'
                                NOR -1
                                BAL -7
                                DAL -1
                                CAR -3
                                DET -1'
                                CIN -4
                                CLE -7'
                                KC -2
                                HOU -5'
                                JAX -2
                                MIA -3
                                SFO -8'
                                NYJ -3
                                GRB -11


                                My Personal Favorite Picks (3-1)

                                Last Week: WISC, SAINTS
                                Week 10: T-TECH +17, PATRIOTS +1


                                WEEK 10 EXCEL POWER RATINGS

                                01 SFO 94.8
                                02 DET 94.7
                                03 GRB 94.5
                                04 BAL 94.2
                                05 HOU 93.9

                                06 NOR 93.6
                                07 CIN 92.5
                                08 BUF 91.6
                                09 PIT 91.3
                                10 NE 91.1

                                11 NYJ 91
                                12 PHI 90.5
                                13 CHI 90.2
                                14 ATL 90.0
                                15 NYG 89.6
                                16 DAL 89.3

                                17 SDG 88.8
                                18 TEN 87.7
                                19 CAR 87.6
                                20 MIN 86.8
                                21 WAS 86.6
                                22 MIA 86.5

                                23 OAK 86.5
                                24 ARI 86.1
                                25 CLE 85.3
                                26 TAM 85.2
                                27 DEN 85.0

                                28 SEA 84.3
                                29 JAX 84.2
                                30 KC 83.8
                                31 STL 80.7
                                32 IND 79.1


                                Good Luck,
                                dave
                                Last edited by dave T; 11-08-2011, 07:29 PM.

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