The Bum's NFL Week # 5 Best Bets 10/9-10/10 !

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Sunday’s betting tips: Raider Nation inspired

NFL Week 5 line moves and weather report

Who’s hot

NFL: The Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven overall and 6-0 ATS in their last six against the AFC.

NFL: The 49ers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five overall and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home games.

MLB: The Brewers are 16-0 in Zack Greinke's last 16 home starts.

NHL: The Penguins are 6-1 in their last seven road games.

Who’s not

NFL: The Eagles and Jaguars are 1-6 ATS in their last seven overall.

NFL: The Vikings are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games and 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 against the NFC.

MLB: The under is 1-5 in the Cardinals' last six road games.

NHL: The Canadiens are 1-5 in their last six overall.

Key stat

15 – The Eagles have done very little right this season, but they are tops in the NFL in one category—sacks, with 15. Seven have come courtesy of league-leader Jason Babin. Something will have to give on Sunday when Philly travels to Buffalo to face the prolific 3-1 Bills. A big reason for Ryan Fitzpatrick’s success is a strong offensive line in front of him. The Bills have allowed just three sacks all season long, second fewest in the league.

Injuries that shouldn’t be overlooked

Ben Roethlisberger is not only Steeler banged up after last week's loss at Houston. Pittsburgh has a serious situation at running back, with Rashard Mendenhall questionable due to a hamstring injury. Mendenhall had been out all week but practice on a limited basis Friday. One backup, Mewelde Moore, is already out with an ankle problem. If Mendenhall can't go, Isaac Redman will get most of the work out of the backfield. The Patriots are going up against a Tennessee defense that is currently eighth in the NFL against the run at 87.8 yards per game.

Biggest games on the slate

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-7.5, 50)

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (5.5, 52.5)

Notable quotable

“We're getting back to the basics. That's how I would define this week. Getting back to the things we do well. That's how we're going to get it done.” – New York Jets’ running back LaDainian Tomlinson on his team’s mentality heading into a Week 5 showdown against the Patriots. New York is coming off a well-publicized Sunday night loss at Baltimore.

Tips and notes

Oakland Raiders' head coach Hue Jackson on the passing of Al Davis: "Obviously, it's a tremendous loss. I just know coach. He would want us to go out and play like Raiders. What a tremendous person; tremendous man. I owe him so much. This league owes him so much. He's a legend and an icon, and we're going to honor him by playing the way the Raiders should play." They will look to do that on Sunday at Houston, an important AFC clash between the 2-2 Raiders and the 3-1 Texans.

Not surprisingly, there won't be much love lost between the Cardinals and Brewers when the division rivals battle for the National League Championship, and a lot of that obviously has to do with Nyjer Morgan. After a heated regular-season clash between the two teams, Morgan hurled his chewing tobacco at Chris Carpenter and called Albert Pujols "Alberta" in a tweet. In early September, when St. Louis appeared out of it, Morgan offered a grammatically-challenged tweet: "Where still n 1st and I hope those crying birds injoy watching tha Crew in tha Playoffs!!! Aaaaahhhh!!!"

As of Saturday night, the Edmonton Oilers' starting goalie for Sunday's season opener is still a mystery. Devan Dubnyk and Nikolai Khabibulin will compete for playing time and will likely split starts until one separates himself from the other, just as they did throughout much of last season. Dubnyk (2.71 GAA) played in 35 games last season while Khabibulin (3.40 GAA) appeared in 47 contests.

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NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 5 betting notes

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-6)

Why Raiders cover: They can run ball, which keeps Texans QB Matt Schaub off field. Even in a 31-19 home loss to Patriots, Oakland gained 160 yards on ground. Raiders lead league at 178.8 rushing ypg. Oakland has cashed five straight following a SU loss.

Why Texans cover: Well, it appears Arian Foster can once again run ball, after blowing up for 155 yards in win vs. Pittsburgh. Houston 5-1 ATS last six vs. Men in Black.

Total (48.5): Raiders like to play to over, with streaks of 6-2 overall and 12-4 inside AFC. But Texans on under run of 5-1 last six as a chalk.

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)

Why Cardinals cover: They cashed last year in 27-24 loss at Minnesota, with Derek Anderson at QB. Kevin Kolb a big upgrade, going against aging Donovan McNabb. Underdog the play in last five Cards-Vikes matchups.

Why Vikings cover: 8-3-1 ATS last dozen as home favorite. Cards 6-13 ATS last 19 overall.

Total (45.5): Over looks like right move, as it’s on stretches of 43-18 with Arizona as a road pup, 4-0 with Minny as home chalk and 4-1 in this NFC rivalry.

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)

Why Titans cover: Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (foot) at less than full strength, and Pittsburgh looking old and slow, despite status as defending AFC champs. Tennessee QB Matt Hasselbeck seems revived. Underdog 7-1 ATS in last eight Titans-Steelers tilts.

Why Steelers cover: Have covered spread in last four at Heinz Field and are good bounce-back bet, with runs of 5-0 ATS after SU loss and 5-1 ATS following pointspread setback.

Total (39): Over 6-1 in Steelers’ last seven AFC contests and 7-2 last nine Pittsburgh meetings in this rivalry.

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)

Why Chiefs cover: Coming off victory over winless Minnesota. Todd Haley’s troops 9-4 ATS last 13 getting points. And winless Colts don’t have Peyton Manning, a gift that keeps on giving to opponents. Indy 2-6 ATS last eight at home.

Why Colts cover: Curtis Painter actually made some huge plays in Monday loss at Tampa Bay, with Indy cashing as double-digit dog for second straight week. Colts 8-2 ATS last 10 vs. K.C.

Total (39): Under 5-1 K.C.’s last six as pup and 11-1-1 Chiefs’ last 13 roadies as dog of three or less. Last four Chiefs-Colts contests in Indy went under.

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5)

Why Bengals cover: Because Jags are favored despite averaging league-worst 9.8 ppg, combining for meager 23 points in last three outings (7.7 ppg). Cincy 6-1 ATS last seven overall and 5-0 ATS last five catching points. Jacksonville 1-6 ATS last seven overall.

Why Jaguars cover: Have hit five of last six ATS laying points at home.

Total (37): With two under-developed rookie QBs, game has all makings of an under. All four Jacksonville games this year have gone low.

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (-9.5)

Why Seahawks cover: The G-Men are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 laying points at home.

Why Giants cover: Seattle still starting Tarvaris Jackson at QB. And Seahawks rarely good making three time-zone trip to East Coast. Most recent case in point: 24-0 loss at Pittsburgh three weeks ago.

Total (43.5): Seahawks have paid over bettors 12 of last 15 overall and six of last seven on highway.

Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) at Buffalo Bills

Why Eagles cover: They are flat-out desperate. Sexy Super Bowl pick sitting at 1-3 SU and ATS, and could be three games out in NFC East if they stumble in this spot. Bills 3-10-1 ATS last 15 as home pup.

Why Bills cover: Previously unbeaten, but got dose of reality at Cincinnati and should be ready this week. In last home game, Ryan Fitzpatrick & Co. rallied from 21-0 deficit to shock Patriots. Philly on slew of negative pointspread streaks, including 1-6 overall and 1-7 giving points.

Total (49.5): Total has gone high every game this year for Buffalo and five straight overall. Over a scorching 10-1 in Philly’s last 11 roadies.

New Orleans Saints (-6.5) at Carolina Panthers

Why Saints cover: Big advantage at QB, with veteran and former Super Bowl winner Drew Brees vs. Panthers rookie and top draft pick Cam Newton. In this rivalry, Saints 7-2 ATS last nine in Carolina and road team 20-8 ATS last 28.

Why Panthers cover: Newton coming along far better than expected, helping Carolina cover three of four so far. In fact, he’s passing for 374 ypg, third in league, one spot ahead of Brees (351 ypg). New Orleans 4-9 ATS last 13 NFC South games.

Total (51.5): With all the yards these two QBs rack up, over could come in, even as high as it is. But in this division rivalry, under has hit four straight overall and eight straight at Carolina. Under also 10-1 in Saints’ last 11 division tilts.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)

Why Buccaneers cover: At betting window, Bucs dig underdog role (6-1 ATS last seven) and road trips (15-5-1 ATS last 21).

Why 49ers cover: Confident coming off big, come-from-behind upset at Philly. Perhaps new coach Jim Harbaugh figured out how to unlock talent in QB Alex Smith. Niners 4-0-1 ATS last five.

Total (41): Over 3-1 for both teams this year and 4-0 in San Fran’s last four at Candlestick. But under 4-1 Bucs’ last five on highway.

San Diego Chargers (-4) at Denver Broncos

Why Chargers cover: Because that’s what they generally do in this AFC West rivalry, going 7-1-2 ATS last 10. Philip Rivers is a very good QB for San Diego. Kyle Orton is not – after winning his first six starts for Broncos, he’s gone 6-20. Denver 11-27-2 ATS last 40 at Mile High.

Why Broncos cover: This is like a traffic cop at an accident, telling bystanders, “Nothing to see here.” But if we must: Chargers on ATS skids of 1-4-1 overall and 2-6-1 on the road.

Total (46): With Denver involved, over constantly in play, like in last week’s 49-23 loss at Green Bay. Over on runs for Broncos of 7-1 overall, 10-1 against winning teams and 4-1 in Denver vs. Chargers.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-9.5)

Why Jets cover: That’s a lot of points for a team that reached past two AFC title games. And road team 18-7-1 ATS last 26 in this rivalry.

Why Patriots cover: Jets are a mess. Mark Sanchez not a franchise quarterback, playing behind sieve-like offensive line.

Total (49.5): Both teams play to over a lot. For Jets, over on surges of 9-1 in underdog role and 17-4-1 on road. QB Tom Brady and prolific Pats offense putting up 33.8 ppg this year, and over has gone 16-5-1 last 22 in Foxborough.

Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Why Packers cover: They play like Super Bowl champs that they are. Packers have won 10 in a row SU and gone 8-2 ATS in that stretch. One of those wins was 48-21 shellacking of Atlanta in playoffs at Georgia Dome last season.

Why Falcons cover: Revenge and desperation. Matt Ryan & Co. embarrassed in playoff beatdown, and Atlanta needs win to avoid falling below .500, especially with NFC South rivals New Orleans and Tampa playing well.

Total (53.5): Despite Packers’ penchant for scoring, under 10-3 in last 13 on highway and 7-1 in last eight as road chalk.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-5.5)

Why Bears cover: They seem to shine under Monday night spotlight, at 5-1 ATS in last six appearances. And Detroit lacks that experience, playing first MNF game in 10 years.

Why Lions cover: If they were due for letdown, it was last week at Dallas. And they did let down for a half, before huge comeback win. Detroit favored for first time in years in this NFC North rivalry, and Jim Schwartz’s troops want whole nation to see they’re no fluke. Lions among best bets in league, with ATS streaks of 16-5-2 overall, 9-1-1 after SU win and 12-2-2 after spread-cover.

Total (47.5): Bears tend to play to under, while Lions play to over. But when these rivals meet, over 4-1 last five overall and 4-1 last five at Ford Field. Detroit’s QB-wideout connection of Matt Stafford-Calvin Johnson looks unstoppable.

[StarDust Bum]

Rex’s crew: We’re better than New England

Jets BlogLast Updated: 6:59 AM, October 9, 2011

Posted: 12:26 AM, October 9, 2011


FOXBOROUGH, Mass. — Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have been standing between the Jets and the Super Bowl for more than a decade now, and the mere mention of them fuels their fire, their fight and their forever obsession. Even last January, when they knocked the Patriots out of the playoffs with the mother of all defensive game plans, there was a price for the Jets to pay in the AFC Championship in Pittsburgh for one reason; they already played their Super Bowl.

The stakes are not nearly as high today, but that doesn’t mean this isn’t a game that could alter the course of the season. Coach Rex Ryan’s well-documented designs on dethroning the Patriots as division champs and possibly hosting the 2011 AFC Championship — and avoiding a three-game losing streak that would test every ounce of his team’s mettle and fiber, hinge on whether he can prevent Brady from his 30th consecutive regular-season victory at home and prevent Belichick from avenging one of the more painful defeats of his Hall of Fame career.

When the Jets show up today — under a relentless shower of venom from a fan base that apparently sees an interlocking NY on the enemy’s helmets — they will show up sick of devouring humble pie and vowing to prove to the outside world, and to Belichick and Brady, that what they did to this Evil Empire the last time they met was no fluke.

“If we perform to the way we know how to play, I think we’re a good team. We’re a great team,” Sione Pouha said.

Do you think you’re the better team?

“If we come to play Sunday the way we know how to play, we’re the better team,” Pouha said.

You expect to play that way?

“Yes,” Pouha said.

Apparently Ryan has installed swagger fountains inside the Atlantic Health Jets Training center because his players have been drinking from it after wandering aimlessly lately through the forbidding NFL desert.

I asked Mike DeVito: Even after the last two weeks, is there a feeling here that you guys are the better team?

“Yes, definitely, without a doubt,” DeVito said. “You got to go into a game thinking that, you know what I mean? Nobody goes into the game thinking they’re the worst team, you know what I mean.”

Of course I know what you mean. But entering the season you guys felt that it was your time, and that you were the better team. Do you still feel that way?

“One hundred percent, yeah, definitely,” DeVito said. “There’s nothing but confidence and trust in this room. We know we’re the better team and know we’ll be ready to play on Sunday.”

I asked Dustin Keller: Even after the last two weeks, does this team feel it is a better team than the Patriots?

“Yeah, without question,” Keller said. “We never doubt ourselves. We came out flat the last couple of weeks, but we feel that when we’re on top of our game, that we’re the best team in the NFL.”

Do you expect to be on top of your game Sunday?

“Without question,” Keller said.

In the summertime, Keller said he expected to sweep the Patriots.

“We have the right people and we have the right plan to beat them, whether it’s here, there, whatever,” Keller said. “As long as we play our type ball, and we do it for four quarters, we’re more than capable of winning both times against them.”

The Jets expect the return of center Nick Mangold will mean that a thundering Ground & Pound is ready to come out of mothballs to help Mark Sanchez be the Sanchise again.

“[Sanchez is] good about letting things go,” Keller said. “Baltimore’s in the past, and he’s leaving it there, and he’s going to have a great game.”

The loss of middle linebacker Jerod Mayo diminishes a Patriots defense still lacking a heavyweight pass rush. Styles make fights, and to a man, the Jets believe they have the style to knock out the Patriots.

Welcome, Wes Welker, to Revis Island.

“You know Rex and [defensive coordinator] Mike [Pettine] are always going to be ready for the Patriots,” DeVito said.

Of course, the daunting image of Belichick burning the midnight oil studying a bitter, season-ending defeat during the lockout would give most teams pause.

Just not the Jets.

[jt4545]

Thanks for all the work

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, October 9

Game Score Status Pick Amount

New Orleans - 1:00 PM ET New Orleans -6.5 500
Carolina - Under 51 500

Philadelphia - 1:00 PM ET Philadelphia -3 500
Buffalo - Under 52.5 500

Seattle - 1:00 PM ET N.Y. Giants -10 500
N.Y. Giants - Over 43.5 500

Cincinnati - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +1 500
Jacksonville - Over 37 500

Kansas City - 1:00 PM ET Kansas City +1 500
Indianapolis - Under 38 500

Tennessee - 1:00 PM ET Pittsburgh -3 500
Pittsburgh - Over 40 500

Arizona - 1:00 PM ET Arizona +3.5 500
Minnesota - Over 45 500

Oakland - 1:00 PM ET Oakland +4.5 500
Houston - Over 48 500

Tampa Bay - 4:05 PM ET Tampa Bay +2.5 500
San Francisco - Over 41 500

N.Y. Jets - 4:15 PM ET [B]N.Y. Jets +7.5 500 DOG OG THE DAY[/B
]New England - Under 50.5 500

San Diego - 4:15 PM ET Denver +3.5 500
Denver - Over 46.5 500

Green Bay - 8:20 PM ET Atlanta +5.5 500
Atlanta - Over 53 500

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MNF - Bears at Lions

October 9, 2011

Week 5 of the NFL wraps up in the Motor City with the league's most-talked about team this season sitting under the Monday night spotlight. The 4-0 Lions host the 2-2 Bears in an NFC North showdown in front of a national audience as Detroit looks to keep up its momentum from a successful first month of the season.

Jim Schwartz's club grabbed a pair of convincing wins over the Buccaneers and Chiefs to start the season at 2-0, but the next two weeks showed that the Lions were for real. Detroit rallied from a 20-0 deficit at Minnesota to shock the Vikings, 23-20 in overtime, even though the Lions failed to cover as 3 ½-point favorites. The Lions followed up that comeback with a tremendous encore performance in Dallas by climbing out of a 27-3 hole to shock the Cowboys, 34-30 as short road underdogs.

The offense, led by Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, has been the power behind Detroit's success through four weeks. However, it was the Lions' defense that kept them unbeaten with a pair of interception returns for touchdowns against Tony Romo and the Cowboys to cut Dallas' lead to 10 points. The rally was finished off by a Stafford-to-Johnson touchdown strike in the final two minutes, the eighth time this season the former top-three picks have hooked up for a score.

Now, the Lions play their second divisional game of the season against a Bears' squad that staved off Carolina, 34-30 last Sunday at Soldier Field. Chicago almost cashed as seven-point favorites, but a late Cam Newton touchdown pass gave Carolina the backdoor cover, dropping the Bears to 1-3 ATS. The Bears haven't outgained any of their four opponents from a yardage standpoint yet, while ranking 20th in the league on the ground (96.3 yards/game). That number improved significantly after Matt Forte rushed for a career-best 205 yards against Carolina, one week after racking up a measly two yards on nine carries in a loss to Green Bay.

The Bears swept the season series from the Lions in 2010 for the third consecutive year, but it didn't come easy. Chicago held off Detroit in the season opener last year, 19-14, as the Lions cashed as 6 ½-point road underdogs. That game received plenty of headlines with the controversial Johnson touchdown that was eventually overturned because he did not "complete the catch." The Lions covered in the second meeting at Ford Field, a 24-20 loss as five-point underdogs in December. Jay Cutler threw a late touchdown pass to give the Bears the lead, as that would be the final loss by Detroit before four straight wins to close out the season.

The Lions are playing their first Monday night game at Ford Field since it opened in 2002, while being featured in this spot for the first time since a 56-21 drubbing at Philadelphia in 2007. In fact, Detroit was destroyed in its previous Monday night home contest at the Silverdome in 2001, 35-0 whipping at the hands of St. Louis as 13 ½-point underdogs.

Chicago has played well on Monday night the last three seasons with a 4-0 SU/ATS record, all coming against division opponents. The Bears knocked off the Packers as home underdogs in Week 3, while dominating the beat-up Vikings on the campus of University of Minnesota last December.

Detroit is a perfect 4-0 to the 'over' this season, while going 7-2 to the 'over' the last nine games at Ford Field since the start of 2010. The Bears have seen the 'under' hit in five of the previous eight road games, while hitting the 'over' in their only away contest this season at New Orleans.

The Lions are listed as a five-point favorite across the board, while the total is set at 47. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST from Ford Field and will be televised nationally on ESPN.

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Books get hammered again

October 10, 2011

"There's no delicate way to put this, Sir, we got pummeled." That was a likely line many sports book directors had to tell their bosses both Saturday and Sunday nights after bettors across the state had all the stars aligned perfectly for them making it the perfect storm.

On normal weekends where the sports book usually wins, the sports book director will get a call from either the general manager, CFO, COO, president or owner of a casino; sometimes, it's a combination of all five. They'll call to see how much was won on the day because they know the sports books fluctuating win/loss figure, a number that is virtually impossible to forecast, can be the major difference between making fourth quarter budget or falling short.

On this weekend, most sports book directors didn't wait for the call, they made the call directly to be the bearer of bad news.

It was a gravy train that started where small public money lit the fuse on Thursday night with Oregon covering 24 points and continued through the powder keg of dynamite Sunday night game with the Packers covering six points on the road at Atlanta. In between those two games was a run on favorites that even the hottest hand on the craps table had to admire.

It wasn't just that the favorites went 32-20 against-the-spread in college football over the weekend, or the pro's that went 7-5, it was who the favorites were. Eleven of the top-12 college teams played with 10 of them covering. The only team that failed to cover was No. 11 Texas because they faced No. 3 Oklahoma, who pounded the Longhorns 55-17.

Most of the small money players like to play teams they know, or like, rather than betting the number or value. It makes it more fun to root for teams that are consistently reliable as well as being able to watch them on TV. The top ranked teams always have the most action on them and the favorite is usually the side that is weighted the most.

It's very rare to see all the top favorites come in which is why college football is usually a very consistent win source for the books year after year with not as much fluctuation as the pro's. The pointspread is supposed to even the tables for the book and bettor, but last weekend it was completely one-sided.

Boise State (-21) covering Friday night carrying over two and three-team parlays into Saturday where Clemson (-20) got a fourth-quarter touchdown to cover at Boston College 36-14 and then No. 1 LSU (-14) punished Florida 41-11. Oklahoma State (-29) rolled, as did everyone's favorite 'favorite' Stanford who have yet to be beaten against-the-spread. Arkansas (-10) cruised and Michigan (-7.5) scored 28 unanswered second half points to cover against Northwestern.

If there was one saving grace that helped the helped the sports books Saturday, it was No. 13 Georgia Tech who had covered their previous five game with each of their totals also going OVER. They failed to make it happen this time. Tech won 21-16, failing to cover the 15-points against Maryland and going UNDER the total for the first time.

There was another small bit of good news as well. All season long the sports books have been getting killed on the late national TV games with the favorites. Las Vegas Hilton Super Book executive director Jay Kornegay said last week that they have gone 1-12 in the isolated night games coming into this week. On Saturday, there was only one big game to contend with struggling Ohio State playing at Nebraska (-11).

Everyone was down on Ohio State's offense making the Huskers one of the more popular plays of the week with small money on parlays. Sharp money didn't have an opinion on the game, although there was some Buckeyes money when +11 ½ showed up. Ohio State jumped out to a 20-6 halftime lead, easing some sports book directors a little who were already numb from results of the early games. Beating down Nebraska would just make the final losses less.

But then that public tidal wave started again and Nebraska rode the wave to outscore Ohio State 28-7 in the second half, making the score 34-27, much to the delight of sports book crowds everywhere. Had Nebraska scored one more touchdown, it would have been one of the largest scores for the public on one college football Saturday ever with all the parlays multiplying.

After a few heart-pounding final minutes of the game for both the bettors and sports books, the game ended 34-27 with the Buckeyes getting the money.

Now the stage is set for Sunday where each of the pro football games have an extraordinary amount of parlay risk tagged to them from the previous day ready to explode. It was almost an exact repeat of the previous Sunday where the books got hammered. The day started out well with popular teams like the Eagles, Giants and Saints not covering, but the final wave of action in the afternoon games destroyed just about every sports book.

Two late field goals by the Chargers and Patriots gave those two favorites the cover. In the case of the Patriots, the field goal also sent the game OVER the total of 50, which ignited even more parlays. With San Francisco smoking the Buccaneers and that total going OVER, it made the favorite to OVER combo -- the most popular public play weekly -- 6-0 in the afternoon games, a situation no book could overcome no matter how much sharp large money action they got on the other side.

The small money in masses at multiplied parlay odds will always be the most formidable opponent to the sports books, especially on weekends like last week. Most of the sharp money's best days are when the sports book has a great day beating the public.

The Packers seemed like an extremely high road favorite (-6) at Atlanta, but the public didn't care what the spread was. In their minds, Aaron Rodgers can't be stopped no matter how good Atlanta has been at home with Matt Ryan and they were correct as the Packers overcame a 14-0 deficit to win 25-14. The win capped off all kinds of fireworks with several big parlays culminating. Those parlays that are still alive are resting on the Lions Monday night.

Congratulations to the bettors out there who did the damage this week, well done!

If there is any silver lining in the loss for the sports books, it's that a lot of that money will be back for action this week with double and triple the bankroll most of the bettors generally wager with. This should produce at least a 10 to 15% increase in same week handle from last year.

It's funny how seasons change, because last year the small player couldn't catch a break until Week 10 and here we are heading into Week 6 with the players having two unbelievable weekends. It just goes to show that everything cycles around when betting sports no matter how how sharp or good a number is.

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Line Dips In Bears, Lions Monday Night Matchup

If the Chicago Bears are going to beat the Detroit Lions for a seventh straight time when they teams meet on Monday Night Football, they will need to protect quarterback Jay Cutler and stop wide receiver Calvin Johnson. Both could be tough tasks for the Bears (2-2), who have struggled to protect Cutler and given up lots of passing yards through the first four games of the season.

The Lions (4-0) opened as 6-point favorites according to the Don Best odds screen but have been bet down to -5 in their first MNF game in 10 years. Game time is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by ESPN.

Chicago ranks 29th in the NFL in pass defense, surrendering 301.5 yards per game through the air. The Bears hope to have safety Chris Harris back in action though after he has missed the last three games with a hamstring injury. Harris has vowed to play, practicing for a third straight day on Saturday.

Without Harris, second-year player Major Wright has moved to strong safety with new addition Brandon Meriweather playing at the free safety spot. While Meriweather is a heavy hitter, Wright’s inexperience has shown. The defensive secondary is a huge concern, especially with Detroit’s Johnson leading the league in touchdowns with eight, including two in every game so far.

As many football fans and bettors remember, it was Johnson who scored what looked to be the game-winning touchdown in last year’s season opener with less than 30 seconds remaining at Soldier Field. However, his catch in the end zone was ruled incomplete, and the Lions suffered a difficult 19-14 defeat after losing QB Matthew Stafford in the first half to a shoulder injury.

Detroit has won eight games in a row since falling at home to the Bears 24-20 in the second game between the teams last year but covered the spread in both meetings. In fact, the Lions are 8-0-1 against the spread in their past nine games dating back to last season.

Chicago did a decent job protecting Cutler against Detroit last year, as he was sacked eight times in the two meetings. But Cutler again ranks near the top of all signal callers in the number of times he has been sacked with 15 after leading the league in that category with 52 last season.

The Lions have nine sacks after ranking sixth in the NFL last year with 44. Defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh has two of the nine following 10 as a rookie in 2010 and will likely get some help alongside him with the addition of first-round draft pick Nick Fairley, who broke his foot during training camp but is expected to make his debut.

The duo could cause big problems for Cutler, who is 3-1 lifetime vs. Detroit with nine touchdown passes and one interception. He was knocked out of a 44-7 loss at Ford Field with a leg injury when he was with the Denver Broncos in 2007.

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Lions And Bears In Detroit For Monday Night Football

The unbeaten Detroit Lions will be the home team for the first time on Monday Night Football in 10 years when the Chicago Bears visit them to close out Week 5. The Lions (4-0) beat the Minnesota Vikings 20-13 at home on Monday night in Week 17 of last season in a bizarre scenario as the visitors because the game had to be moved after the Metrodome collapsed.

Game time is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by ESPN.

Detroit opened as a 6-point favorite according to the Don Best odds screen with the total at 47. Bettors are taking the Bears (2-2) and ‘over’ so far though, as the Lions are now -5 at most sportsbooks with the total rising as high as 48 in some spots.

The roof at Ford Field might explode with a ninth straight Detroit win, especially with the added excitement in the city after the Tigers reached the ALCS for the second time in six years. The Lions have rallied back from deficits of 20 points or more the last two weeks and own the longest active winning streak in the NFL at eight games dating back to last season, but they will be looking to end a six-game series skid against the Bears in this key NFC North matchup.

Chicago is the last team to top Detroit, winning 24-20 on the road in Week 13 of last year. Of course, the more controversial of their two meetings in 2010 was the season opener, when Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson seemingly scored what might have been the game-winning touchdown in the final minute only to see the pass ruled incomplete in the end zone.

Detroit lost quarterback Matthew Stafford in the first half of that game on a sack by Bears defensive end Julius Peppers. Shaun Hill relieved Stafford, and then Drew Stanton started and finished the second meeting.

Stafford has remained healthy and started 2011 strong thanks to Johnson, who has scored two touchdowns in each of the first four games, the first player to ever accomplish that feat to begin a season. He also tied Cris Carter’s league record for consecutive games with two touchdown receptions when he scored the game-winner with 1:39 remaining in a 34-30 victory at Dallas last week.

Chicago has had Jay Cutler under center for the last four meetings, and he threw the game-winning touchdown pass in the second head-to-head battle with Detroit last year following a questionable roughing the passer call on then-rookie Ndamukong Suh, who has vowed to hit the Bears signal caller as much as possible this time around.

Suh could get some help on the defensive line with first-round draft pick Nick Fairley expected to make his debut after breaking his foot in training camp. Fairley won the 2010 Lombardi Award as the nation’s top lineman for NCAA champion Auburn, the same honor Suh won a year earlier.

Cutler has enjoyed a lot of personal success against the Lions during his career though with nine touchdown passes and only one interception. He had his best game in a Chicago uniform in the first meeting last year with 372 passing yards en route to a 19-14 victory.

Bears running back Matt Forte caught seven passes for 151 yards and scored two touchdowns in that game, and he is coming off the best rushing performance of his career with 205 yards in a 34-29 home win over Carolina last week.

Key injuries for the Bears include starting guard Chris Spencer (hand) who is questionable for Monday's contest. Safety Chris Harrs (hamstring) and backup tight end Matt Spaeth (calf) are also listed under questionable status.

Detroit's biggest concern is safety Amare Spievey who is questionable with a hamstring injury.

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Monday, October 10

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chicago - 8:30 PM ET Chicago +6.5 500

Detroit - Over 47 500

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NFL Preview - Chicago (2-2) at Detroit (4-0)

(Sports Network) - With the NFL's current longest regular-season winning streak and a pair of historic comebacks, the Detroit Lions are no longer toiling in obscurity. The resurgent team will now get a long-awaited opportunity to be in the spotlight when it hosts the Chicago Bears in a high- profile Monday night matchup from Ford Field.

Other than their traditional Thanksgiving Day home games, the Lions haven't appeared in a nationally-televised telecast on a major network since a 35-0 Monday night home loss to St. Louis on Oct. 8, 2001. Of course, Detroit hasn't garnered much success during its absence from the big stage, as the franchise has endured 10 consecutive losing seasons and last made the playoffs in 1999.

This year's Lions appear poised to end both droughts, however. After closing out last season with four straight victories, Detroit has kicked off its 2011 campaign with a 4-0 start and is one of just two remaining unbeaten teams, along with defending Super Bowl champion Green Bay.

The last two wins of the streak, the Lions' longest since a nine-game run from Nov. 7, 1953-Oct. 16, 1954, have come in thrilling and incredible fashion. Detroit overcame a 20-point halftime deficit to record a 26-23 overtime triumph at Minnesota in Week 3, then roared back from a 24-point hole in the third quarter for an improbable 34-31 ousting of Dallas on the road last Sunday.

It marked the first time in NFL history a team has rallied from being down by 20 or more points in back-to-back contests.

"It's definitely something special," said Lions defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch following last week's achievement. "There's not many teams that would have kept believing and kept fighting."

The Lions outscored the Cowboys 17-0 in the fourth quarter, with quarterback Matthew Stafford connecting with prolific wide receiver Calvin Johnson on a pair of touchdown passes during the final period. The final one gave Detroit the lead with 1:39 left to play.

Johnson has now come up with two scoring catches in each of the first four weeks, which ties Cris Carter's NFL record for multiple touchdown grabs in consecutive games.

Off to its best beginning since opening up 6-0 in 1956, Detroit hasn't tasted defeat since a 24-20 loss to the eventual NFC North champion Bears at Ford Field on Dec. 5, 2010.

Chicago's initial stretch of 2011 has been considerably more up-and-down than its opponent this week. The Bears have split their first four outings against a challenging early schedule in which they've taken on three postseason participants (Atlanta, New Orleans, Green Bay) from last season.

The Bears fell to 1-2 following losses to the high-powered Saints and Packers, but bounced back with a hard-fought 29-24 home verdict over improving Carolina last Sunday. Despite allowing 543 total yards to the upstart Panthers, Chicago prevailed behind a 205-yard rushing output from running back Matt Forte and touchdowns on both defense and special teams, including return dynamo Devin Hester's 69-yard score on a punt runback in the third quarter.

While still in search of their first winning streak of 2011, the Bears do enter Monday's clash having bested the Lions six consecutive times.

SERIES HISTORY

Chicago leads the all-time series with Detroit, which dates back to the 1930 season, by a 93-64-5 count and as previously mentioned, has won the last six bouts between the storied rivals. In addition to their four-point verdict at Ford Field last December, the Bears posted a controversial 19-14 decision over the Lions at Soldier Field in last year's season opener, in which a potential go-ahead touchdown catch by Detroit's Calvin Johnson in the final seconds was overturned on replay. Chicago also put together home-and-home sweeps of Detroit in both 2008 and 2009, with the Lions taking both meetings in 2007 that included a 37-27 victory in the Motor City.

Lovie Smith is 10-4 against the Lions during his tenure as the Bears' head coach, while Detroit's Jim Schwartz has never beaten either Chicago or Smith in four lifetime tries.

WHEN THE BEARS HAVE THE BALL

A Chicago offense that was heavily pass-oriented over the first three games went to a more run-heavy approach last week, and the team was rewarded greatly for the change. The Bears ripped off 224 rushing yards -- their highest single-game output since 1998 -- against the Panthers, with Forte (324 rushing yards, 26 receptions, 2 total TD) doing most of the damage in a 25-carry workload. The invaluable running back is also Chicago's leader in catches and receiving yards (310) and tops all NFL players in yards from scrimmage this season, so needless to say he'll be the focus of the Detroit defenders on Monday. Last Sunday's reliance on the running game also benefited oft-battered quarterback Jay Cutler (960 passing yards, 4 INT), who was sacked just once by Carolina after being taken down a troubling 14 times in the three previous tilts. If the suspect front line that's still without rookie right tackle Gabe Carimi (knee) can keep the Lions' stout pass rush at bay, Cutler has proven in the past he can pose problems for this week's foe, having registered a passer rating over 100 in both 2010 meetings and throwing for 372 yards and two scores in Chicago's season-opening win. His primary downfield targets will be speedy wideout Johnny Knox (12 receptions) and the inconsistent Hester (7 receptions), while undrafted rookie Dane Sanzenbacher (10 receptions, 2 TD) has done a solid job filling in for the injured Earl Bennett in the slot.

While the Lions have received more attention for their talented skill players on offense, they've shown the ability to make plays on the other side of the ball as well. Detroit has amassed 11 takeaways over its first four tilts and had three huge ones in last week's comeback against the Cowboys, with linebacker Bobby Carpenter (7 tackles, 1 INT) and cornerback Chris Houston (20 tackles, 3 INT, 6 PD) each returning interceptions for touchdowns in the second half and middle linebacker Stephen Tulloch (26 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) also coming up with a late pick that preceded the eventual game-winning drive. Houston has put together a terrific start as the anchor of a secondary that's helped the Lions rank fifth in pass efficiency defense at the moment, though the group won't have strong safety Amari Spievey (16 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) available due to a hamstring injury. Strongside linebacker Justin Durant (21 tackles), one of the team's top run stoppers, is set to return from a concussion that kept him out last week, while highly-regarded rookie tackle Nick Fairley may make a long-anticipated debut on Monday after being sidelined since the preseason with an injured foot. The 2011 first-round choice brings another inside force to an already-formidable pass rush headlined by Vanden Bosch (11 tackles, 3 sacks) and second-year standout Ndamukong Suh (12 tackles, 2 sacks).

WHEN THE LIONS HAVE THE BALL

Detroit enters this week's play tied for second in the NFL in scoring (33.8 ppg), in no small part to a lethal aerial attack that's averaged a shade over 300 passing yards per game (7th overall). Having a healthy Stafford (1217 passing yards, 11 TD, 3 INT), who played in just three games a year ago because of shoulder problems, has clearly made a difference as well. The 2009 No. 1 overall pick trails only Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers for the league lead in touchdown passes and is hitting on better than 62 percent of his throws, while the freakishly-gifted Johnson (24 receptions, 321 yards, 8 TD) has been virtually unstoppable near the end zone and tough to contain in the other segments of the field as well. The star wide receiver is far from the only weapon at Stafford's disposal, however. Tight end Brandon Pettigrew (22 receptions) has racked up 17 catches over the past two weeks, while steady veteran Nate Burleson (16 receptions) and rookie speedster Titus Young (12 receptions) bring two more quality options to the wideout position. Running back Jahvid Best (190 rushing yards, 17 receptions, 2 total TD) is also an outstanding receiver out of the backfield as well as a dangerous runner in the open field, though the 2010 first-round pick is averaging a lackluster 3.2 yards per rush attempt and the Lions rank a lowly 29th in rushing offense (74.5 ypg).

A rugged defense helped propel Chicago to the NFC Championship Game last season, but unit hasn't displayed its usual high-caliber form for most of this year. The Bears have surrendered the second-most total yards (425.8 ypg) in the league and has been especially porous against the pass, with the struggling secondary shredded for 374 yards by Carolina rookie sensation Cam Newton in last Sunday's win. Chicago also permitted 169 rushing yards to the Panthers, and opponents have averaged an effective 5.1 yards per carry on the club so far this year. Those poor numbers aren't befitting a crew that sports three perennial Pro Bowlers in middle linebacker Brian Urlacher (28 tackles, 2 INT), weakside stalwart Lance Briggs (36 tackles) and pass-rushing end Julius Peppers (9 tackles, 2 sacks). The latter notched a pair of sacks in Chicago's two encounters with the Lions last year, while emerging tackle Henry Melton (8 tackles) has a team-best three on the season and must be accounted for as well.

KEYS TO THE GAME

Quarterback play. Cutler has owned the Lions in the past, and the strong-armed Chicago signal-caller may need to be on top of his game once again considering the problems the Bears have had on defense as of late. When he records a passer rating of 100 or better over his career, his teams are 23-0, and Cutler's reached that mark in all four lifetime meetings with Detroit. Stafford was forced to exit last year's Week 1 clash with Chicago due to injury and couldn't play in the rematch, so his presence alone could be an x- factor on Monday.

Cutler will be hard-pressed to put up gaudy numbers if he's on his back for much of this contest, therefore it's critical for Bears offensive coordinator Mike Martz to shun his pass-happy leanings and establish some semblance of a running game. If Forte can churn out chunks of yards like he did last week, Chicago should be in good shape. If not, Detroit's army of talented pass rushers could have target practice against a rickety offensive line.

Defensive big plays. These were instrumental to both of these teams' Week 4 victories, with Detroit's two interception touchdowns triggering its stirring rally against Dallas and the Bears coming out on top over Carolina in part because of a pick-six from nickel back D.J. Moore. Chicago has scored a touchdown on defense in each of its two 2011 wins.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

The Lions have waited a long time for this night to arrive, and they'll be brimming with confidence as well after stringing together two straight remarkable comebacks to pull out what seemed to be sure losses. Detroit might not have to resort to such dramatic and desperate measures this time around, however, as the Bears are plagued with problems on both an aging defense and an offensive line that's been a turnstile for two seasons now. Though Chicago's been able to find resourceful ways to overcome its deficiencies in the past, doing so against a Detroit squad that's finally reaping the benefits of several years of stockpiling young talent and will be pumped up in front of a rare national stage seems like a difficult assignment.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Lions 30, Bears 20