The Bum's NFL Week # 5 Best Bets 10/9-10/10 !

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Week 5 Preview: Jets at Patriots

NEW YORK JETS (2-2)
at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (3-1)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: New England -9, Total: 49.5

Bitter AFC East foes rekindle their strong dislike for one another when the Jets travel to Foxboro to clash with the Patriots on Sunday afternoon.

Last January the Jets halted the momentum of Tom Brady and the Patriots offense. Tom Brady’s production came almost exclusively in garbage time in the 28-21 playoff loss, and it was just 41 days after the Patriots had embarrassed the Jets on Monday Night Football, 45-3. This year, the Jets have been shaky on defense while Brady is hitting on all cylinders. However, even with its o-line issues, New York should move the ball against a Patriots defense that can’t create pressure and will be without its best player (LB Jerod Mayo). This might come down to whether Rex Ryan and the Jets have anything new they can throw at Brady, but these teams are much more even than the spread would indicate, with the Jets going 4-2 (SU and ATS) in the past six meetings. The pick here is NEW YORK to keep this game close enough to cover.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also likes the Jets as the play.

Play On - Any team (N.Y. JETS) - after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after a win by 10 or more points. (37-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.5%, +23.8 units. Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets provide a four-star trend expecting this game to finish OVER the total.

N.Y. JETS are 11-1 OVER (91.7%, +9.9 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NY JETS 26.0, OPPONENT 22.1 - (Rating = 4*).

Mark Sanchez hasn’t usually played well in this rivalry (5 TD, 7 INT in regular season), but he did throw three touchdowns and no picks in the playoff upset last year. However, Sanchez is coming off a brutal performance in Baltimore, where he completed just 11-of-35 passes for 119 yards (3.4 YPA), 0 TD and 1 INT. Prior to last week’s debacle, Sanchez was averaging 295 passing YPG with six touchdowns and four picks. The Jets’ inability to rush the football has been truly baffling. They ranked fourth in the NFL with 148 rushing YPG last season, but are currently third-worst in the league with 71 rushing YPG and 3.1 yards per carry. The absence of C Nick Mangold (ankle) is a big reason for the decline, but he could return to action on Sunday. WR Plaxico Burress (elbow) is the other main offensive player that is questionable due to injury. The defense has also been terrible against the run, allowing the sixth-most rushing yards in the NFL (131 YPG). On the positive side, the passing defense has been stellar, ranking second in the league with 180 passing YPG allowed.

Tom Brady is 13-5 all-time against the Jets during the regular season, with 219 passing YPG, 22 TD and 9 INT in these meetings. Although Brady has an uncharacteristic five interceptions this year, he has also thrown for 1,553 yards (388 YPG) and 13 touchdowns in four games. Wes Welker continues to get open at will, with an NFL-best 40 catches for 616 yards. The Patriots made a huge commitment to the run last week, and it paid off big-time. They racked up 183 yards on 30 carries (6.1 YPC) and now rank ninth in the league in rushing (123 YPG). In addition to having its best defensive player, Mayo, out for six weeks with a sprained MCL, New England could also be without two key players on offense. TE Aaron Hernandez is questionable to return to the lineup because of a knee injury, and RB Danny Woodhead has also missed practice time this week with an ankle injury.

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Week 5 Preview: Bears at Lions

CHICAGO BEARS (2-2)
at DETROIT LIONS (4-0)

Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Detroit -5, Total: 48

Despite trailing by 20+ points in their past two games, the Lions seek their ninth straight victory when they host Chicago in the first Monday Night Football game held in Detroit in more than 10 years (Oct. 8, 2001).

The Bears have a six-game SU winning streak against the Lions (scoring 31.5 PPG in those contests), though this could be the year surprisingly unbeaten Detroit finally breaks through. The Bears continue to have issues across the offensive line, both run blocking and pass protection, and Detroit’s front four is the strength of its defense. The teams played two tight games a year ago, with the Bears pulling out a 24-17 win in Detroit when the Lions were starting third-string QB Drew Stanton in December, and in September a controversial overturn of a Calvin Johnson touchdown sealed a 19-14 win for the Bears in Chicago. The Bears allowed 543 yards to Carolina last week and are on a three-game ATS losing skid. The Lions are 15-3-2 ATS (83%) in the past two seasons. That includes an 8-1 ATS mark at home, and the rowdy fans at Ford Field will be a major reason DETROIT wins and covers on Monday night.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also backs the Lions.

DETROIT is 13-2 ATS (86.7%, +10.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 23.9, OPPONENT 19.9 - (Rating = 3*).

Bears RB Matt Forte gained a whopping 205 yards on 25 carries in Sunday’s win over the Panthers, joining Walter Payton and Gale Sayers as the only Chicago RBs to rush for 200 yards in a game. Forte has had great success against Detroit in six career meetings, racking up 757 total yards and six touchdowns. However, the offensive line, already without star OT Gabe Carimi (knee), has another key injury as C Chris Spencer has a broken right hand and is questionable for Monday’s game. QB Jay Cutler has already been sacked 15 times this year, but if he can get time to throw, he’s had past success against Detroit’s defense. In five career games against the Lions, he has thrown for 1,043 yards, 9 TD and only one interception. Two other injuries of concern are WR Earl Bennett (chest), who is expected to miss the next two weeks, and the status of S Chris Harris is uncertain after missing the past three games with a hamstring injury. Chicago ranks 29th against the pass (302 YPG) and 23rd in run defense (124 YPG) this season.

The Lions win streak nearly ended last week as they trailed Dallas 27-3 in the second half. Two interceptions returned for Detroit touchdowns plus a pair of fourth-quarter TD passes from Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson fueled the improbable comeback. Johnson, who leads the league with eight TD, has been limited in practice this week with an ankle injury, but he’s expected to start on Monday. Stafford is having a huge season, averaging 304 passing YPG with 11 TD and 3 INT. These numbers are even more remarkable considering the team’s lack of success running the football. The Lions have the fourth-worst ground game in the league (75 YPG) as top rusher Jahvid Best is averaging 3.2 yards per carry. However, Best rushed for 65 yards on just nine attempts (7.2 YPC) the last time he faced Chicago.

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Week 5 Preview: Buccaneers at 49ers

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (3-1)

at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (3-1)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -3, Total: 41.5

The 49ers are feeling good about themselves after an upset win in Philadelphia, but they have another tough challenge with the Buccaneers bringing a three-game win streak to the City by the Bay on Sunday.

San Francisco hopes its new identity under head coach Jim Harbaugh leads to a better performance than it had against the Bucs at home last year, a 21-0 loss last November. The road has been good to Tampa under Raheem Morris—the Bucs are 13-3-1 ATS in road games under Morris including 9-2 SU and 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 away from home. After the Vikings gashed Tampa Bay for 186 yards in Week 2, the defense has responded by holding the Falcons and Colts to a combined 92 rushing yards on 33 carries (2.8 YPC). The pick here is underdog TAMPA BAY to get the road win.

This FoxSheets trend also supports taking the Buccaneers.

Play Against - Home favorites (SAN FRANCISCO) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. (54-24 since 1983.) (69.2%, +27.6 units. Rating = 2*).

RB LeGarrette Blount has been huge for the Bucs during their winning streak, rushing for 279 yards and three scores in the three games. QB Josh Freeman has thrown for just 3 TD and 4 INT this year, but he’s completed 67% of his passes for 242 passing YPG. Second-year WR Mike Williams was expected to lead this team in receiving again after 964 yards and 11 TD in a brilliant rookie season, but he has done very little in 2011, catching just 15 passes for 155 yards and one touchdown.

In last year’s meeting, the 49ers only possessed the ball for 23:36 and were limited to 189 total yards, while surrendering 162 rushing yards to Tampa Bay. This season’s version of San Francisco is still having trouble moving the football, ranking fifth-worst in the league in total offense (271 YPG). Despite the lack of yardage, QB Alex Smith is putting up decent numbers. He has completed 67% of his passes for 199 YPG, 4 TD and only one interception. RB Frank Gore had an inspired effort in last week’s win in Philly, rushing for 127 yards and a touchdown on just 15 carries (8.5 YPC) despite battling an ankle injury. He has not had much success in three career games against Tampa though, carrying the ball 43 times for 152 yards (3.5 YPC). The team is 3-1 because of its special teams and defense, which ranks fourth in the league in rushing (74 YPG allowed).

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Week 5 Preview: Packers at Falcons

GREEN BAY PACKERS (4-0)
at ATLANTA FALCONS (2-2)

Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Green Bay -5.5, Total: 53.5

Green Bay makes its third visit to Atlanta in 11 months when it faces a Falcons squad eager to pay the Packers back after last season’s brutal home playoff loss.

Atlanta got the better of Green Bay last November thanks to two pivotal fourth downs that went the Falcons way, but this game is more likely to resemble the 48-21 divisional playoff blowout they suffered at the hands of the Packers last January. Green Bay outgained Atlanta 442-194 in that resounding victory. The Falcons struggled to barely beat Seattle in Week 4, and were handled by Chicago and Tampa Bay earlier this year. The Packers, meanwhile, have looked just as unstoppable as they were in the 2010 postseason. There’s little reason to think Atlanta can handle a Packers offense that’s averaging an NFL-best 37.0 PPG and 429.3 yards of offense, which ranks fifth in the league. The pick here is GREEN BAY to win its 11th straight game on Sunday night.

This four-star FoxSheets trend also likes the Packers as the play.

Mike McCarthy is 16-3 ATS (84.2%, +12.7 Units) off a non-conference game as the coach of GREEN BAY. The average score was GREEN BAY 28.7, OPPONENT 18.5 - (Rating = 4*).

Aaron Rodgers is having an amazing season so far. He scored six touchdowns (four passing, two rushing) in last week’s win over Denver and has now completed 73% of his throws for 331 YPG, 12 TD and just two interceptions. In the big playoff win at Atlanta last year, Rodgers was nearly flawless, completing 31-of-36 passes for 366 yards and three touchdowns. WR Greg Jennings continues to be the go-to receiver for Rodgers, with 16 catches for 222 yards and one touchdown in his past two contests. Jennings also smoked Atlanta last year with 13 grabs for 220 yards in the pair of meetings. The Packers have a couple of major injury concerns as LB Clay Matthews is questionable with a quadriceps ailment and RB Ryan Grant is also questionable with a bruised kidney, but he has been practicing with the team this week.

Atlanta almost squandered a 27-7 lead in the second half to Seattle, but was able to eke out a 30-28 win, dropping the Falcons to 1-3 ATS this season. They should also be able to establish an aerial attack on Sunday night, as the Packers have the second-worst pass defense in the league, allowing 336 YPG. Atlanta ranks 11th in the NFL in passing offense, led by QB Matt Ryan averaging 284 YPG with 6 TD and 4 INT this year. He threw 17 passes to rookie Julio Jones last week, completing 11 of those throws for 127 yards. Top WR Roddy White has dropped an NFL-most six passes this year, as he continues to be hampered by a bruised thigh. RB Michael Turner will try to keep the Packers pass rush at bay. Turner was held to 39 yards on 10 carries in the playoff loss, but gained 231 yards on 49 carries (4.7 YPC) with two scores in his previous two meetings with Green Bay. For the Falcons to slow down Rodgers, they need to find a more consistent pass rush than the one that has just five sacks on the season. The lack of pressure on opposing QBs is a big reason why the team ranks 24th in pass defense (276 YPG).

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NFL | SEATTLE at NY GIANTS
Play On - Road teams (SEATTLE) slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games
59-26 over the last 10 seasons. ( 69.4% | 30.4 units )
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NFL | TAMPA BAY at SAN FRANCISCO
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (SAN FRANCISCO) good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after a win by 3 or less points
219-66 since 1997. ( 76.8% | 0.0 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | 0.0 units )
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NFL | NEW ORLEANS at CAROLINA
Play Over - Any team vs the the 1rst half total excellent passing team (>=265 PY/game) against an average passing defense (185-230 PY/game), after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games
41-15 over the last 10 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )

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Total Talk - Week 5

October 7, 2011

Week 4 Recap

Let’s call it a draw!

Sixteen games were played in Week 4 and the totals finished with an 8-8 mark. Slowly but surely, gamblers are starting to see the offensive fireworks temper and most would expect that trend to continue as the season progresses. After four weeks, the ‘over’ stands at 35-26-3 (57%).

Thirty-Something

Due to the large amount of high-scoring games through the first quarter of the season, it’s been very noticeable to see the sportsbooks adjust. Each week we’ve touched on the decreasing number of totals listed under 40 points and when you delve into these specific contests, you can see that the numbers still aren’t right. Through 64 games, gamblers have seen 13 games with a closing total of 39 ½ points or less. In those contests, the ‘over’ owns an eye opening 10-3 (77%) mark.

Totals Under 40 Points (2011 season)
Week 1 Total Result Betting Notes
Pittsburgh 7 Baltimore 35 OVER 37 28 at Half, Cashed in 3rd
Buffalo 41 Kansas City 7 OVER 39 Cashed before the 4th
Cincinnati 27 Cleveland 17 OVER 36.5 17-13 late, but 2 late TDs helped
Jacksonville 16 Tennessee 14 UNDER 38 10-0 at the break, never in doubt!
Arizona 28 Carolina 21 OVER 37.5 Good pace, TDs instead of FGs helped
San Francisco 33 Seattle 17 OVER 38 Thanks to Tedd Ginn's heroics
Week 2 Total Result Betting Notes
New York Jets 32 Jacksonville 3 UNDER 38 Jags had one chance to score late, but no dice
Tennessee 26 Baltimore 13 OVER 38.5 Up 23-13, Titans kick a FG with 27 ticks left???
Cleveland 27 Indianapolis 19 OVER 39 17 points in final four minutes was comical
Week 3 Total Result Betting Notes
San Francisco 13 Cincinnati 8 UNDER 38.5 U-G-L-Y....UGLY
Pittsburgh 23 Indianapolis 20 OVER 39.5 2 "D" TDs helped a lot!
Week 4 Total Result Betting Notes
Tennessee 31 Cleveland 13 OVER 37.5 Hit early in the 4th
Atlanta 30 Seattle 28 OVER 39.5 31 at half, easy ticket cashed in 3rd



As noted in the above table, some of the outcomes were fortunate but that’s the way the ball bounces sometimes. We have three games sitting under 40 points in Week 5 and these particular matchups could be tough to argue for the ‘over’.

Kansas City at Indianapolis: This number is hovering around 38 points and when you look at the offensive units, it should probably be lower. The Chiefs (12.3 PPG) and Colts (15.8 PPG) have both been inconsistent this season. However, Kansas City (31.5 PPG) and Indianapolis (27 PPG) have major flaws with their defense. This pair met last year at the same venue, with Peyton Manning too, and the Colts won 19-9.

Cincinnati at Jacksonville: Even though this year has been dominated by ‘over’ tickets, the Jaguars are the only club to not see one. The ‘under’ has cashed in all of Jacksonville’s four games, specifically due to a horrendous offense, which is ranked last in points per game (9.3) and second to last in yards per game (264). The Bengals saw their first two games go ‘over’ but those could’ve easily been ‘under’ winners. Sure enough, Cincinnati has seen its last two go ‘under’ the number. Keep in mind that this game will pit two rookie quarterbacks against one another in Gabbert and Dalton. Barring defensive or special team scores, it’s tough to see this game going above the total of 36 ½-points. On a side note, don’t fall into the trap of telling yourself that if each team gets to 17, then you got a winner. I’m a victim of that rationalization, and I’m sure some of you are too.

Tennessee at Pittsburgh: This game opened at 41 and has dipped to 39 ½ points. It will be interesting to see if settles below the 40-point plateau. The Titans have been a nice surprise this season, especially the play of veteran quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. What’s the reason behind his surge in Nashville? Well, he’s standing up. I’ve always said that if you give any pro QB time, he’ll dice up any secondary and he’s only been sacked four times in four games. What may lead you to an ‘under’ bet here is Pitt’s offense, which has a total of 11 offensive scores (6 TDs) this season. That’s not good, but fortunately the Steelers’ defense has only surrendered 277 yards per game, which is ranked second. These two teams have met three seasons and a row, and the ‘under’ has gone 2-1, with scores of 13-10 and 19-11 in the most recent encounters.

System Plays

Readers following this column over the years on a regular basis are well aware of the “Total Tip – Three Straight on the Road” system. The angle calls for gamblers to play the ‘over’ for any team that is playing their third consecutive game on the road. The results went 4-3 last year, improving the overall record to 26-11-2 (70%) over the last seven seasons. We have seven instances set up for this year’s regular season, with the first one occurring on Sunday between the Patriots and Jets. The other six are listed below:

Week 6 - New Orleans at Tampa Bay
Week 9 – Indianapolis at Tennessee
Week 12 – Arizona at St. Louis, Buffalo at N.Y. Jets
Week 13 – Carolina at Tampa Bay
Week 16 – Cleveland at Baltimore

Under the Lights

After four weeks of primetime games, the ‘over’ owns an 8-1-1 record. We thought this trend would slow down in Week 5 considering the Ravens-Jets matchup on SNF had two great defensive units. What we didn’t know is that aforementioned units would put up a combined 35 points from defense and special team scores. You can’t handicap those particular plays but you can certainly remember them if they meet again in the playoffs. The MNF affair watched Tampa Bay outlast Indianapolis, 24-17. Most books closed the total at 40 and again, two long touchdowns from Colts wide receiver Pierre Garcon was the difference.

Two more games this week and if you’re riding the ‘over’ wave, you’re certainly going to earn it this week with some inflated numbers.

Green Bay at Atlanta: Big revenge game here as the Packers ripped the Falcons 48-21 at the Georgia Dome in the playoffs last season. If you’re going to play ‘under’ here, you need Green Bay to get FGs instead of TDs, which is asking a lot. The Packers have 19 touchdowns (17 offensive) this season and only five field goals. Gamblers have seen four totals listed above 50 points this season and the ‘over’ has gone 3-1, with last week’s matchup between the Patriots and Raiders (50 points, 55.5 O/U) going below the number.

Chicago at Detroit: The Lions have seen all four of their games go ‘over’ the total. Chicago could easily be 4-0 to the ‘over’ too but it stands at 2-2. Four of the last five in this series has gone ‘over’ but they haven’t seen a total higher than 45 ½, and this week’s number is hovering between 47 and 48 points. Make a note that Detroit has only played one home game (KC, 48-3), and Chicago has only played one road game (NO, 13-30). To put it simply, the Lions looked good defensively at home albeit versus the Chiefs and the Bears struggled at the Superdome against the Saints.

Fearless Predictions

Finally, we hit a team total (1-2), our first winner on the season and it was umm, err…very lucky. Thanks Buffalo for scoring just 3 points in the second-half. We got some luck in our ‘over’ bet too with the Giants and Cardinals putting up 42 points in the final 30 minutes. And our best ‘under’ bet was atrocious, as the Bears and Panthers combined for 63 points, 44 in the first half too. The Three-Team Teaser lost as well, so the deficit was $10. On the season, we’re down 50 cents.

As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Arizona-Minnesota 45

Best Under: Cincinnati-Jacksonville 37

Best Team Total: Over Minnesota 23.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 36 Arizona-Minnesota
Under 46 Cincinnati-Jacksonville
Under 53 Seattle-N.Y. Giants

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Las Vegas Money Moves

October 7, 2011

One of the most curious lines of the week is the Steelers laying three points at home against the Titans. The Las Vegas Hilton had the Steelers as 8-point favorites for this game before the Week 4 games played. After the Titans rolled to an easy win at Cleveland and the Steelers sluggish loss at Houston, that number was sure to drop. Steelers' quarterback Ben Roethlisberger‘s status remained unclear keeping the game off most sports books' boards until Tuesday or Wednesday.

"We opened the game at minus-3 on Wednesday," said MGM Resorts sports book director Jay Rood. “We expect Big Ben to play, but not at his full capabilities because of his toe injury which takes a point or two away from where it might have been. Then you have to factor in the Steelers' poor offensive-line play and Rashard Mendenhall not practicing all week compounded with this team's overall struggles already this season; three is the right number.”

The number has to be correct because no one is jumping in on either side.

“So far we have had very little action on the game,” said Rood. “I think there’s Titans money to be had at either 4 of 3 ½ flat, but we‘ll see where the money takes us as we get closer to game day.”

While the Steelers (2-2) have looked very beatable on the road, they have had only one home game. In that game, they pounded the hapless Seahawks, 24-0.

The Steelers have traditionally been a very public team, but have let down their supporters against the spread in three of their four games thus far.

The regular cast of public favorites are being bet heavy already this week with small money.

"A popular combination this week is the Packers, Patriots and Saints," said Rood.

The three of those teams have combined to go 9-3 ATS, which obviously endears them to the public.

The Patriots were projected to be an 8 ½-point favorite before Week 4 games played out. Following their beatdown of the Raiders and the Jets horrendous Sunday night effort, they were opened up at -9 ½. Some Jets money was found and by Friday morning the game was back to -8 ½.

The Jets have won and covered three of their last five meetings, including a big one last year in the playoffs. However, this current Jets squad looks nothing like that playoff team, offensively or defensively. The hope for Jets bettors is that the true hatred in the rivalry brings out the best in them.

The Buccaneers have been an impressive road team over their last eight -- covering them all -- and the 49ers opened a short 1-point favorite. Sharp bettors have been much more impressed with the 49ers and have pushed the game to -3 (EV).

The Chargers opened as 5-point favorites for their road game at Denver and the line currently sits at -4. The total has also dropped in this game from 47 ½ to 46.

The Packers are 6-point road favorites at Atlanta this Sunday night. They were initially -3 before Sunday’s games and then re-opened Monday at -4 ½. It wasn’t too long before the sports books crossed the dead numbers and went to -6. So far, the public doesn’t care what the number is, it’s all Packers despite the Falcons being a completely different team at home than on the road.

The troubled Eagles opened as 2 ½-point favorites at Buffalo, were bet against to -2 and then bet on to where it now sits at -3 (EV). The public is mixed on this game giving the books great two-way action. It’s kind of a do-or-die situation for the Eagles and their season, one that had so many high hopes.

The Raiders have been a trendy choice among the Public for their game at Houston creating two-way action and keeping the home team as 6-point favorites. Both teams are 3-1 ATS. The Sharps haven’t shown their hand in this one, but the six points would seem attractive to take. Lucky’s sports books was the first to drop to -5 ½ Friday afternoon.

Despite Seattle’s 1-10 ATS road record on grass over their last 11, the Giants remain 9 ½-point favorites. The total has risen from 41 ½ to 43 ½.

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Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest Week 4 Update

Once again, the Dallas Cowboys were at the forefront of a key matchup in the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest. Only this time, instead of a gutsy Tony Romo comeback to help Dallas backers, the Cowboys quarterback played a major role in coughing up a lead to leave Big D bettors on the losing end.

Week 4 of the NFL season saw the Detroit Lions trek into Dallas as 1-point underdogs in a key NFC matchup. An even 100 players in the LV Hilton SuperContest laid the single point on the Cowboys while 111 players backed the Lions.

Detroit bettors and fans surely thought the Lions' perfect season was coming to an end when Romo's third TD pass gave Dallas a 27-3 lead early in the third quarter. But Detroit returned two Romo interceptions for scores and Matthew Stafford directed the Lions offense to a 17-0 fourth-quarter advantage for the eventual 34-30 upset.

Another big draw for Week 4 contest entries was the New England Patriots going west to take on the Oakland Raiders. The Patriots -4 drew the interest of 162 players with 45 taking the underdog Raiders.

A pair of turnovers and nine penalties doomed the Black & Silver, with Tom Brady and the Pats walking away 31-19 victors.

Two games that went out as picks on the NFL odds also ranked in the heavy-action column for the SuperContest. The Washington Redskins used their ground game to post a 17-10 win at the St. Louis Rams, with 124 contest entries backing the 'Skins compared to 70 Rams backers.

Out in the desert, the Arizona Cardinals held a 20-10 lead over the New York Giants entering the fourth quarter before Eli Manning and the G-Men went to work. Manning tossed two scores in the game's final four minutes to lead New York to a 31-27 triumph.

The game was very evenly picked in the LV Hilton SuperContest, with 97 on the winning Giants and 94 backing the Cardinals.

New Orleans (-6½) produced the most winners in the contest for Week 4. The Saints used three John Kasay field goals in the second half, while blanking the woeful Jacksonville Jaguars offense the final 30 minutes, to grab the cover with a 23-10 win.

Here are the latest standings in the LV Hilton SuperContest:

STANDINGS PTS RECORD
Sans Souci 16.5
16-3-1

samswins.com2 15.0
15-5-0

gameanalysts.com 14.5
14-5-1

Pagermager 14.5
14-5-1

Sons of Ditka 14.5
14-5-1

Robert C Best 14.5
14-5-1

Eight with 14.0


14 with 13.5

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Chargers Road Favorites At Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos (1-3), a win away will host the AFC West-leading San Diego Chargers (3-1) on Sunday, with the Mile High City crew taking a third crack at its 400th regular-season win. Kickoff from Sports Authority Field at Mile High is scheduled for 4:15 p.m. (ET) and will be televised on CBS.

San Diego opened up as a 6-point road favorite in NFL betting, but the number has fallen by at least two points everywhere. The total has been bet down a point to 46.

In last year’s trip to Denver, the Chargers came away with a 33-28 win as 5-point favorites, out-gaining the Broncos by 110 yards. Head coach Norv Turner has taken his team on the road just once this year, dropping a 35-21 decision to the New England Patriots as 6½-point underdogs.

San Diego had every opportunity to win that game, but ultimately lost the turnover battle by a 4-0 margin.

The Chargers have won eight of the past 10 games in the series, including three in a row. Bettors will find that the squad is 7-1-2 ATS over that span.

Second-year running back Ryan Mathews has become a offensive weapon in the backfield, coming into this week with a team-high 288 rushing yards and 19 catches for 254 yards. It’s still important to note that the Chargers are 15th in the league in scoring 22.8 points per game, a drop-off from their normal production, which many attribute to the inability of tight end Antonio Gates to stay on the field.

The All-Pro is listed as doubtful on the injury report with plantar fascilitis in his right foot. He has played in just 12 of 20 possible games for the team since the start of the 2010 campaign.

Denver knows it has quite a mountain to climb in trying to avoid an 0-2 start in the division, as the team dropped a 23-20 season-opening contest to the Oakland Raiders as three-point home favorites. The Broncos have struggled mightily on the defensive end in this series, allowing at least 32 points eight times since the 2006 season, including a combined 68 points in last year’s two meetings.

Quarterback Kyle Orton’s leash is getting shorter and shorter, as the losses continue to pile up, coming in with a 6-20 record in his last 26 starts. The former Chicago Bears signal caller has turned the ball over eight times, including six interceptions.

Defensively, the unit is anticipating the return of veteran cornerback Champ Bailey, who is listed as probable with a hamstring injury that has kept him out of three games this season. Over that span, the Broncos have allowed 1,001 passing yards, which is the second-most over a three-game period in the history of the franchise.

His return is vital in trying to slow down San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers, who has averaged 238.5 yards per game and thrown for 18 touchdowns and just six interceptions in 11 career games against Denver.

The Broncos are 11-27-2 ATS in their last 40 home games, but bettors will find that the team is 11-5-2 ATS when getting points in the Mile High City.

Weather forecasts suggest game-time temperatures in the low-50s and a slight chance of rain showers in the Denver area.

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Caesars Palace Sports Book Weekly Update

Senior Race and Sports Book Analyst Todd Fuhrman of Caesars Palace stopped by DonBest.com to take a look at the biggest betting topics around college football and the National Football League.

Over the past weekend, the books saw two huge NCAA matchups with uncompetitive second halves, as well as the prime-time NFL games continuing to go ‘over’ the total.

Fuhrman noted that a lot of attention from their betting patrons was on the game between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Florida Gators out of the SEC. ‘Bama was road chalk at -4 and while Florida led 10-3 in the first quarter, the game went the way of the Tide after that. The final score of 38-10 hardly put any anxiety into those who took the favorite.

Another big matchup on Saturday also ended up in a blowout on the favorite’s side as the Wisconsin Badgers ran away with a 48-17 victory in the Nebraska Cornhuskers’ first ever Big Ten conference game. The Badgers covered easily at -10.

As for the NFL, stand-alone night games are relentlessly going ‘over’ sitting at 8-1-1 on the year. While quarterbacks Mark Sanchez and Joe Flacco were underperforming, to put it kindly, the game between the Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets saw five different returns for touchdowns. Then, when it seemed as if Monday night might produce a low score, running back LeGarrette Blount sealed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers victory over the Indianapolis Colts with a late TD score in the fourth quarter. A field goal would have been appreciated by the books but the final of 24-17 went ‘over’ by a ½ point.

This week, college football offers a marquee matchup bright and early. No. 2 Oklahoma is a 10½-point favorite as the Sooners take on the No. 14 Texas Longhorns on a neutral field. Caesars is also showing a total of 56½ on the Don Best odds screen.

While more money could be generated from a prime time slot, the possibility of a great early morning game has a definite upside. “It really sets the tone for the full day,” says Fuhrman. “So if we get a good game that goes down to the wire, the energy will carry through to the rest of the day.”

In an SEC matchup, the Florida Gators are a 13½-point underdog on the road against the LSU Tigers. The Gators, ranked No. 19 on the Don Best Linemakers Poll, lost quarterback John Brantley in the Alabama game and freshman Jeff Driskel is expected to take his place against the No. 4 Tigers. The total is 41½.

In one of the last games on Saturday's collegiate slate, the No. 29 TCU Horned Frogs head to San Diego State to take on the Aztecs in a Mountain West Conference matchup. Texas Christain is currently -4½ with a total set at 56½. Fuhrman believes SDSU and QB Ryan Lindley could be a “stiff challenge” for a team that had a narrow 40-35 victory over the Aztecs a year ago.

On the Sunday NFL slate, the Philadelphia Eagles head to Buffalo to take on the Bills. Most would have predicted these records to be flip-flopped with the Eagles at 1-3 and the Bills at 3-1. However, Philly is still a 3-point road favorite and the total is 49½. Buffalo was getting a lot of interest in this matchup, but the Bills' loss to Cincy has turned some bettors off.

Finally, NBC’s Sunday Night Football will showcase a playoff rematch from a year ago between the Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons. The public is pounding the Packers -6 right now and of course, that ‘over’ trend is looming with a total of 53½. That postseason game last season quickly turned ugly for the Falcons who lost, 48-21.

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NY Jets, New England Patriots NFL Betting Preview

The Border War between the New England Patriots and New York Jets continues Sunday afternoon with both teams having major question marks. CBS will broadcast at 4:15 p.m. (ET) from Gillette Stadium.

The Patriots opened as 10-point home favorites in this always-entertaining battle, but it’s now nine at most shops listed at Don Best. The NFL betting total is also down a point from 50 to 49.

The Jets (2-2 straight up, 1-3 against the spread) haven’t started as expected and have only played one solid game, 32-3 at home against Jacksonville in Week 2. The last two weeks were their first two road contests, losses at Oakland (34-24) and Baltimore (34-17), going 0-2 ATS.

Quarterback Mark Sanchez has been the poster child for the recent troubles. He lost three fumbles last week, two run back all the way, and another interception for a touchdown. His performance was so bad that receiver Santonio Holmes called him out in the media, usually a big no-no.

The third-year signal caller from USC has performed well in the playoffs (94.3 quarterback rating), but is average-at-best in the regular season (71 career rating). His 36.8 pass attempts are up this year as head coach Rex Ryan tried to enhance the passing game with Holmes, Plaxico Burress and tight end Dustin Keller.

Ryan has vowed to revert to the ‘ground and pound’ rushing attack that was so successful last season (148.4 YPG, ranked fourth). The problem is that new featured back Shonn Greene is only averaging 3.1 yards per carry and the 71 YPG total ranks 30th. The same offensive line that can’t protect Sanchez is also not run blocking well.

The Jets are desperate to get center Nick Mangold (ankle) back this week. He missed the last two games and the Ravens overran rookie Colin Baxter, forcing Ryan to unsuccessfully shuffle things around in-game. Mangold is probable and always does a good job against Patriots behemoth Vince Wilfork.

The Patriots (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) last saw the Jets in the playoffs, getting shocked 28-21 as 9 ½-point home favorites, a similar spread to this game. The Jets were able to run the ball (120 yards) and Sanchez threw for 194 yards, three TDs and no picks. Getting an early interception from Tom Brady really swung the momentum.

New England isn’t thinking about revenge. This is all about trying to win the AFC East and getting home-field advantage again in the playoffs. Hurting the Jets eventual playoff hopes is another added bonus. The other Jets visit to Foxboro last year was a 45-3 blowout win by the Pats.

Coach Bill Belichick finally found some offensive balance at Oakland (31-19 win) last week, running for 183 yards and throwing for 226. The averages the first three games were 103 running and 438 passing. Rookie running back Stevan Ridley (97 yards last week) looks like a find and will continue to get more carries.

The 50 combined points scored last week went ‘under’ the 55-point total. The ‘over’ was easily 3-0 in New England first three games and 19-3 in the previous 22 overall.

Keeping the offense balanced is crucial. Brady threw four picks in the Week 3 loss (34-31) at Buffalo after leading 21-0. Some of that was bad luck, but the Jets pass defense knows how to take away the middle of the field. Look for Darrelle Revis to cover the NFL’s leading receiver Wes Welker (616 yards) and make Brady throw outside to less reliable guys like Chad Ochocinco.

The Patriots have only played one home game this year, 35-21 over San Diego as 6 ½-point favorites in Week 2. They’ve won 18-straight regular season home games (11-6-1 ATS). However, home playoffs losses to Baltimore in 2009 and the Jets last year temper that statistic.

New England has major issues with pass defense (368.8 YPG, ranked last), with an average run defense (108.8 YPG, ranked 18th). Even the mediocre Jason Campbell threw for 344 yards last week, although 99 were on the meaningless final drive. Sanchez needs to complete short passes early for his confidence, but also needs a running game for play-action to be effective.

The ‘over’ is 2-0 in Jets road games this year and 17-4-1 in the last 22 away. The ‘over’ is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings between the teams in New England.

New England is missing key linebacker Jerod Mayo (knee) and defensive lineman Albert Haynesworth (back), and several others are questionable. The team has good depth and always seems to have someone to step up.

Weather is expected to be beautiful for this time of year, sunny and in the 70s.

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Death Of Al Davis Could Motivate Oakland Raiders

A couple of key injuries for the Pittsburgh Steelers have contributed to the biggest line move of Week 5 in the NFL as the defending AFC champions prepare to host the Tennessee Titans on Sunday.

The Steelers opened as 6 ½-point favorites according to the Don Best odds screen but have seen the line shrink to -3 against a Tennessee team that has surprised many early this season as a contender in the AFC South.

Pittsburgh (2-2) is expected to have starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger under center despite the fact that he suffered a sprained left foot in last week’s 17-10 road loss to the Houston Texans. The Texans (3-1) are the favorites to win the AFC South but are being challenged by the Titans (3-1), who have won their last three games and own the NFL’s eighth-ranked run defense.

Tennessee is allowing just 87.8 yards per game on the ground and may not have to face Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall due to a hamstring injury. Mendenhall is listed as questionable and would be replaced in the starting lineup by Isaac Redman if he can’t go.

The biggest news of the weekend so far came Saturday though with the passing of Oakland Raiders owner Al Davis, who was a revolutionary figure in the league but was often criticized for his failure to let go of the franchise he helped build. Davis was 82 years old and spent 60 of them working in the AFL and NFL. He was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 1992.

The Raiders (2-2) went 6-0 in the AFC West last year and finished 8-8, their first non-losing campaign since their last Super Bowl appearance following the 2002 season. They could be extra motivated to play in honor of Davis this week during their visit to Houston, and have seen small betting action in their favor, as the line has dropped a half-point to five.

Another decent line move involves two other teams within Oakland’s division. The San Diego Chargers (3-1) opened as 6-point road favorites against the Denver Broncos (1-3), who are now +3 ½ at most sportsbooks. This game is viewed as critical for Denver after getting blown out 49-23 last week on the road by the Green Bay Packers. The Broncos have dropped eight of the last 10 meetings with San Diego and are 1-7-2 against the spread in those games. The Chargers have had their way with Denver offensively in the series since 2006, totaling 32 points or more eight times with an average score of 36-19.

The Indianapolis Colts (0-4) are favored for the first time this season and hope to notch their first victory of '11 against the Kansas City Chiefs (1-3). The Colts opened as 2-point home favorites and have been bet up slightly to -2 ½ at some sportsbooks. They will be starting QB Curtis Painter for the second week in a row after he got the nod in Monday night’s 24-17 road loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Painter played decent in his first career start against the Bucs, throwing for 281 yards and two touchdowns.

The Chiefs are coming off their first win at home against the Minnesota Vikings 22-17 but are 2-8 against the spread in their past 10 games against AFC opponents.

The Vikings (0-4) are also going for their first win of 2011 as they host the Arizona Cardinals (2-2). Minnesota opened as a 3-point favorite, and there has been virtually no line movement. Vikings RB Adrian Peterson is dealing with an ankle injury but is listed as probable on the injury report while his counterpart Beanie Wells is questionable with a hamstring injury for the Cardinals after carrying the ball 27 times for 138 yards and scoring three touchdowns in a 31-27 home loss to the New York Giants last week.

The Giants (3-1) are not expected to have RB Brandon Jacobs in the backfield when they host the Seattle Seahawks (1-3) due to a knee injury, so Ahmad Bradshaw should get most of the carries. New York opened as a 10-point favorite and has retained that status at most books.

Sunday night’s playoff rematch between the defending Super Bowl champion Packers (4-0) and the Atlanta Falcons (2-2) has seen the line move in the road team’s favor. The Packers opened as 4-point favorites in their first visit to Atlanta since crushing the Falcons 48-21 in last year’s NFC divisional playoffs and have been bet up to -6 in some spots.

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Eagles-Bills highlight Week 5

Whether or not the Buffalo Bills were mentally exhausted or not, their loss to the lowly Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday was a big win for bettors who played the “classic letdown scenario” strategy.

The Bills, of course, were coming off back-to-back comeback victories over the Oakland Raiders and New England Patriots, both of them at home in front of their long-suffering fans at Ralph Wilson Stadium. All of a sudden the city was buzzing after its beloved team intercepted the great Tom Brady four times, beat the Pats for the first time in 16 tries and moved to a shocking 3-0 record.

Next up for the Bills came a trip to Cincinnati as favorites to play in front of a record-low crowd for Paul Brown Stadium of around 40,000. You’d forgive them for being less than excited.

Granted, Buffalo was leading big at halftime over the Bengals, 17-3, so it’s not like it was sluggish from the start. But Cincinnati’s rookie quarterback, Andy Dalton, led the home team back for a 34-31 victory.

Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick was understandably upset with the loss, but he wasn’t willing to concede it had anything to do with an emotional letdown.

"I don't know if it had anything to do with all the emotion from last week's game," he said. "It had more to do with us flat-out not showing up in the second half."

There’s also the possibility that the Bills aren’t actually very good.

Regardless, the loss to the Bengals was more ammunition for bettors who like to play letdown scenarios. Over at Bodog’s online sportsbook we booked a few big wagers on Cincinnati, and while there were numerous possible reasons the game went the way it did, you can be sure those bettors will be looking for the next time they can enact the same strategy.

Elsewhere in Week 4 in the NFL, we saw a lot of bettors get burned by the Philadelphia Eagles, who lost at home, 24-23, as big favorites over the San Francisco 49ers. This was a real surprise for a lot of people – especially the radio host in Philly that said he’d take a bike to San Francisco if the Eagles lost. Have a good trip!

What a crushing defeat though. The 1-2 Eagles were really in a must-win scenario before the 49ers came to town. Philadelphia was supposed to be a Super Bowl contender, yet three weeks into the season it was already behind the eight ball.

Meanwhile, the 49ers were sitting pretty at 2-1 atop the NFC West, and considering the strength of the division, a 2-2 record would hardly have been a huge problem.

You really have to wonder if the Eagles, now 1-3, can recover from this start. They’re off to Buffalo next week to play a Bills team that will be able to feed off the crowd and probably won’t be in a very good mood after losing to the Bengals.

After Buffalo, it’s a trip to Washington to play the surprising Redskins, who will be well-rested after their bye.

Lose just one of those games and it could be lights out for Philly.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 5's biggest betting mismatches

Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills (+2.5, 50)

Eagles run defense vs. Fred Jackson/C.J. Spiller

Fred Jackson is coming off a bad week against a good run defense, but Chan Gailey knows that he should find plenty of success Sunday.

"We'd like to use Fred Jackson a little more," the head coach said.

The Bills are averaging 137.0 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per attempt. Jackson has posted a 5.8 yards-per-carry mark through four games.

Philly has been feeble against the run. The Eagles are allowing an average of 139.5 yards a game and 5.3 yards a carry. They gave up 164 to the Niners last Sunday and 177 to the Giants the week before.

After Week 2, the Eagles played musical chairs with their linebackers to see if that would help production. The following week they benched Casey Matthews and safety Kurt Coleman. Losing stud lineman Trent Cole only compounds the problem.

Juan Castillo has mostly failed in his new role as defensive coordinator. His job is safe for the time being but Andy Reid said Monday he was "wide open" for a change in scheme going forward.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+6.5, 51)

Cerberus vs. Panthers run defense

In case you aren't versed in Greek mythology the above name refers to a three-headed hound that guards the gates of the Underworld. Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles comprise the Saints monstrous three-man rushing attack.

Sean Payton has made a point to run more in 2011. Injuries decimated this phase of the offense last year but New Orleans ranks 10th in the league this season with 119.0 rushing yards per game. Last week against a decent Jags run defense, the Saints registered 177 on the ground.

Carolina’s offense has been shockingly good but the run defense needs help. Losing two starting linebackers, and having two rookies on the interior of the line, have left this defense extremely vulnerable against the run.

The Panthers rank 31st in the league against the run at 143.8 yards an outing. They also give up 5.2 yards per rush attempt. Matt Forte gashed that unit for 205 yards last Sunday on just 25 carries. Maurice Jones-Drew had 122 on 24 attempts the week before.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-9, 49.5)

Jets situation vs. Patriots revenge

The Pats haven’t forgotten about losing to New York at home in the playoffs last year as 9.5-point chalk. They also haven’t forgotten the image of Jets players flying around the field afterward like a classless bunch of clowns.

Bill Belichick holds grudges. There’s no chance the Patriots will let off the gas Sunday. If they’re up three scores, they will go for it on fourth-and-goal. They did it last week, and they even like the Raiders (because Al Davis feeds them draft picks).

This is the third straight road game for the Jets. Nick Mangold is expected to return but Bryan Thomas will be missed immensely at outside linebacker.

Tom Brady didn’t ask fans to get “lubed up” for this game like he did San Diego but with another late start time at Foxboro, you know they will be.

An added incentive is that New England will be wearing its 1985 throwback uniforms with red jerseys and the “Pat Patriot” helmet logo. They wore them twice last season against the Vikings and Lions, both games were double-digit wins.

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (+6, 52.5)

Aaron Rodgers vs. Falcons pass defense

If Tarvaris Jackson can throw for 319 yards and three touchdowns against Atlanta, the numbers for Aaron Rodgers are going to be ridiculous Sunday night.

And Mr. Rodgers comes into this contest white hot. He threw for 401 yards and four scores last weekend. The offense came away with touchdowns on five of its six trips inside the red zone and converted 9 of 13 third downs. Green Bay is averaging 37.0 points per game in 2011.

The Falcons failed to record a single sack last week against a young Seattle line that has been beaten like a mule. If they couldn’t get to Jackson, they will be lucky to lay a hand on Rodgers.

The Packers couldn’t’ be stopped in the dome last postseason, rolling to a 48-21 victory as 1-point pups. Rodgers misfired on just five of his 36 attempts while throwing for 366 yards and three touchdowns.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Underdogs: Week 5 pointspread picks

The older I get, the more I appreciate things that stay the same. There’s something comforting knowing hamburgers will always taste better with bacon, Pearl Jam will always make magnificent music and Jennifer Aniston will always be hot.

Maybe it’s because as an NFL bettor, it’s so hard to see holding patterns. Do you know who the three winless teams were after Week 4 last season? The 49ers, Lions and Bills. Those teams’ combined record this season after Week 4? Yup, you guessed it – really good, 10-2 straight up (8-2-2 ATS) to be exact.

And what about the perceived powers coming into this campaign? The Falcons, Eagles and Steelers all look bad. Not unlucky… just bad.

What you think you know about the NFL can change as quickly as Clark Kent in a phone booth.

I know what you’re thinking. This just sounds like a bull**** excuse coming from an NFL writer who can’t pick winners to save his life. Well, after a 2-2 week I’m still a game above .500 on the season, so don’t jump ship on me yet.

Still, there are a few things I feel pretty confident about in pro football. Like how Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre are never going to be bosom buddies.

OK, enough with this sad excuse for a lead. Let’s pick out some puppies.

Oakland Raiders (+5.5) at Houston Texans

I don’t know how the Raiders players felt about their former owner. Al Davis was a volatile guy and not everyone loved him. But he took a chance on a lot of the players starring on the club this season.

Andre Johnson, the world’s best wideout, isn’t suiting up for Houston which is a huge loss for Matt Schaub and the Texans offense.

Look for Oakland to pay tribute to its recently deceased owner by picking up a big road win.

Pick: Raiders +5.5

New York Jets (+7.5) at New England Patriots

Oh boy. It would have been great to nab this line when Gang Green was getting 9.5 points early in the week, but there’s not much we can do about that now.

The Jets have their flaws and they’ve been on display for all of us to pick at, but that doesn’t mean Rex Ryan’s troops are going to get blown out at Foxboro.

New York gets All-Pro center Nick Mangold back and Darrelle Revis will slow down Wes Welker.

Pick: Jets +7.5

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+6.5)

Loved this quote from our CoversSports twitter feed last Sunday after the Panthers pulled off another miracle back-door cover:

“Cam Newton is playing like he’s got money on these games.”

Yes, Carolina’s defense is a step below atrocious, but if Cam can’t cover, nobody can.

Pick: Panthers +6.5

Last week: 2-2
Season record: 7-6