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**StarDust Bum** · 10-03-2011, 08:01 PM

Tennessee Titans Seek Revenge At Pittsburgh Steelers

Very few NFL insiders would have predicted the Tennessee Titans (3-1) entering this Week 5 matchup with a better record than the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2).

That’s exactly what has played out with both teams set to face off at Heinz Field at 1:00 p.m. (ET) on Sunday afternoon. The game will be televised on CBS.

Oddsmakers have yet to establish betting odds in this contest due to Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger suffering an apparent foot injury in Week 4's 17-10 loss to the Houston Texans as 4-point road underdogs. The two-time Super Bowl winning quarterback was seen leaving Reliant Stadium in a walking boot and is currently listed as questionable on the injury report.

He has been a man under siege behind an offensive line that included two new starters versus the Texans, getting sacked five times and chased out of the pocket on a regular basis.

Pittsburgh hasn’t been very good offensively this year, failing to go over the 24-point mark in all four contests. The Steelers rank 13th averaging 359.2 total yards a game, but are scoring just 16 points a game.

On the other side of the ball, the Steel City is putting up good defensive numbers overall, sitting just behind the Cincinnati Bengals for the top spot in terms of total yards allowed. It’s important to point out that the unit is allowing 119.5 rushing yards a game, almost double last year’s mark of 62.8, which was the third-lowest in the NFL since the 1970 campaign.

Bettors will find that the Steelers are 1-3 ATS in their last five meetings with AFC South opponents, while the ‘under’ is 3-1 in those contests.

Tennessee lost star wide receiver Kenny Britt to a season-ending knee injury last week, but that didn’t stop the team from posting a 31-13 win over the Cleveland Browns as one-point road underdogs. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck completed 10-of-20 passes for 220 yards and three touchdowns, continuing a strong start to the 2011 season, ranking fourth in the league with a 104.7 passer rating.

The Titans also benefited from running back Chris Johnson’s best performance through the first four games of the year, gaining 101 yards on 23 carries. He has still failed to reach the end zone after scoring a combined 25 rushing touchdowns the previous two years.

Tennessee will be seeking revenge from a 19-11 loss to Pittsburgh in last year’s meeting, failing to deliver as 6-point home favorites, while the game fell under the posted total of 36½.

Defensively, the team has carried over its strong play from the preseason when it allowed a league-low 10.5 points a game, holding all four regular-season opponents to 16 points or less. Over the last two-plus seasons, the Titans are 4-5 ATS in October and the ‘over’ is 7-2 in that particular situation.

Early weather forecasts suggest sunny skies and game-time temperatures in the mid-70s for this important AFC clash.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-03-2011, 08:03 PM

Trending: The Power of the Bye (Oct. 9)

The NFL “open dates” start in Week 5 this season, and if you’ve been a regular visitor to *******.com in recent seasons, you probably count the days until we run our annual articles highlighting the top team trends for pre- and post-bye week games. Well, wait no more.
If you haven’t ever studied teams’ performances in and out of the bye week, what you’ll see here should open your eyes. Hopefully it will expand your bankroll as well, as all of these powerful ATS or Over-Under trends boast winning percentages of at least 65 percent or at most 35 percent.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (1-3)

at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (0-4)

OVER the total is 6-1-1 in Arizona’s last eight games heading into the team’s bye week. That high-scoring train kept rolling last year in the Cardinals’ 30-20 home victory over the defending Super Bowl Champion Saints in a game where the total was 45½.
Play On: OVER the Total.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (1-3)

at NEW YORK GIANTS (3-1)

HOME TEAMS have managed to win nine of the last 10 Seattle pre-bye week games, and those teams are 7-3 ATS over that span. The Seahawks’ pre-bye week game last season was in St. Louis. The Rams were a slight underdog at home, yet came away with a convincing 20-3 victory over their NFC West rival.
Play On: NEW YORK GIANTS (SU & ATS).

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (3-1)

at DENVER BRONCOS (1-3)

OVER the total is 14-2 in San Diego’s last 16 games heading into the team’s bye week. Keeping that streak going last season was quite a challenge, being that the Over/Under was a whopping 50 points in the Chargers’ pre-bye week game at Houston. The 29-23 San Diego victory was just enough to eclipse the number.
Play On: OVER the Total.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-04-2011, 10:39 PM

Bengals And Jaguars In Rookie QB Clash

Two rookie quarterbacks will duel this weekend in the National Football League when the Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) head to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars (1-3) at EverBank Field. This matchup out of the AFC will be on the early Sunday slate with kickoff set for 1:00 p.m. (ET).

Currently on the Don Best odds screen, the Jags are a 2½-point favorite with a total that opened at 35½ but has already moved up to 37.

Second-round pick Andy Dalton of the Bengals and top-10 pick Blaine Gabbert of the Jaguars will be at the forefront of the storylines, but defense is really the name of this game.

Through four weeks of football, Cincinnati has the league’s top ranked defense in terms of total yards, and is No. 6 by giving up just 18.5 points per game. Defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer is really getting a nice all-around team effort in 2011.

Cincy only has one interception on the year, but the Bengals have forced six fumbles, the third-most in the league.

Jacksonville was ranked highly on defense until running into the New Orleans Saints last week. As far as rankings go, the Jaguars are now in the middle of the pack, but rankings are not the whole story. With an anemic offense not doing them any favors, the ‘D’ has really given them the opportunity to win all four games.

For a couple of examples, rookie sensation Cam Newton has amassed passing yard totals of 422, 432, 158 and 374. The 158 was at home against the Jags. Also, last week against the Saints may have knocked down yardage rankings, but the 23 points New Orleans scored against Jacksonville is the Saints' lowest total this year. Drew Brees’ No. 2 ranked offense was held to just three field goals in the second half.

As far as each team is concerned, the offensive side of the ball is not as pretty.

The Bengals are No. 23 in both points scored and passing yards. However, Dalton has played pretty well especially for a rookie. He also may have grown up quickly before everyone’s eyes last week. After a dismal first half against the Buffalo Bills and down 17-3, the TCU product led his team to a 23-20 victory.

Running back Cedric Benson is also having a great season so far with 348 yards on the ground and averaging 4.5 yards per carry. Trouble is brewing for Benson, though, as he appears to have a three-game suspension looming.

It is currently unclear when that will take place. It could be this week which would be a big blow to the team.

Nothing takes the cake quite like the Jags’ offense. Get this; They are averaging 9.8 points per game, and it goes without saying that is the lowest in the NFL. The simple fact is the progression and maturation of Gabbert will directly influence whether the team wins or loses. He has the defense behind him, but to win games everyone around him on offense needs to elevate their game.

Maurice Jones-Drew is certainly not the problem as the star running back is still off to his best start to a season as a pro. MoJo’s 391 rushing yards is good for second in the entire NFL.

The ‘under’ really seems to make a lot of sense here, maybe too much sense. After all, there is no “sure thing” in the NFL.

The Bengals are 5-0 against the spread in their last five games as an underdog while the Jags are 5-1 ATS in their last six as a favorite. Cincy has also experienced a lot of trouble covering on the road against the Jaguars, going 1-5-1 ATS in Jacksonville.

Very early weather reports call for a chance of thunderstorms with temperatures in the 70s.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-04-2011, 10:41 PM

Bye Weeks Bring Twist To NFL Betting Slate

With the first month of the NFL season officially in the books, we move on to Week 5 where the card is cut down to 13 games as six teams take their bye weeks. Week 4 saw the favorites go 10-6 against the spread, while total betting split down the middle with eight games going ‘over’ and eight staying ‘under.’

As is the case with every NFL season, plenty of surprises have been revealed through the first few weeks. The Detroit Lions are undefeated, while preseason favorites such as the Atlanta Falcons (2-2), New York Jets (2-2), Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) and Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) are off to disappointing starts.

Philadelphia is in need of a win Sunday when the Eagles visit the Buffalo Bills. The game starts at 1:00 p.m. (ET) and will be televised on CBS.

Michael Vick stayed on the field last week against San Francisco, but the Eagles still lost as a big favorite at home for the second straight week. The defense has not been nearly as good as advertised, giving up 357.3 yards per game and 25.3 points per game (23rd in the NFL).

Buffalo came from behind to beat Oakland and New England to improve to 3-0 on the season, but Week 4 saw the Bills on the wrong end of a late comeback as Cincinnati stole the game away in the fourth quarter. Now back at home, Buffalo will try to keep its surprise-start to the season on track.

Philadelphia is a 3-point favorite for the matchup with a 49½-point total.

The Jets head to New England this week to take on the New England Patriots. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:15 p.m. (ET) on CBS.

Rex Ryan's club has now lost two straight games by double digits, and looked completely out of sync on offense Sunday night against Baltimore, giving up three defensive touchdowns. New York fell to 1-3 ATS with the big loss.

New England is a tough team to try and get back on track against. The Patriots are averaging 33.8 points per game, and are 3-1 both SU and ATS. They bounced back from the Buffalo loss with a blowout win over Oakland last week.

New England is a big 9-point favorite at home with the total ranging from 49-50 points.

Sunday Night Football on NBC starts at 8:20 p.m. (ET) and features the undefeated Green Bay Packers going on the road to face the Atlanta Falcons.

The Packers have picked up where they left off last season, rolling over opponents on offense and shutting them down with a stingy defense. They easily covered as a 12-point favorite last week at home, beating the Broncos 49-23.

Atlanta will try to get over .500 for the first time this season, but also to get revenge for last season. The Packers came into Atlanta and beat the Falcons 48-21 to knock them out of the playoffs, a result Matt Ryan and the Falcons certainly haven’t forgotten.

Green Bay is a 5 ½-point favorite Sunday night in a game that currently features the week's highest betting total, 54.

Detroit will look to stay undefeated as a 6-point home favorite at home against the Chicago Bears Monday night, while the Minnesota Vikings (-2 ½ at home against the Arizona Cardinals) and Indianapolis Colts (-2 ½ at home against the Kansas City Chiefs) will both try to get their first wins of the season.

The Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, St. Louis Rams, Miami Dolphins, Washington Redskins and Baltimore Ravens are the teams taking the week off.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-04-2011, 10:42 PM

Drew Brees And Saints At Cam Newton, Panthers

The New Orleans Saints (3-1) will look to make it three wins in a row when traveling to face the Carolina Panthers (1-3) in Week 5 of the 2011 NFL regular season. Sunday’s kickoff from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. (ET) and will be televised on FOX.

Las Vegas oddsmakers sent out New Orleans as 6 ½-point road favorites, only to see the line drop by a full point within minutes before settling at six currently. The total has moved up a point from its opening number and sits at 52 ½.

The betting odds are not shocking to the market due to the Saints covering three consecutive games as favorites, including a 23-10 road win over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees continues to be one of the best in the league, completing 33-of-44 passes for 351 yards and a touchdown, but also throwing two interceptions. He led the team to an astounding 503-274 total yards advantage.

Many bettors will be very eager to play the Saints due to covering as 5 ½-point road favorites with ease in last year’s meeting, coming away with a 34-3 win. Brees finished that contest with 253 yards, two touchdowns and an interception.

The difference in this meeting is many sharp bettors aren’t going to anticipate the Panthers being held to just 68 passing yards this time around, as rookie quarterback Cam Newton sits behind Sunday’s opposing quarterback in third place in the league with 1,386 yards.

Total bettors may find the move up in this matchup to be justified, as the ‘over’ is 21-10 in the Saints' last 31 games as a road favorite. It’s important to note that this series has fallen below the number in eight consecutive meetings.

Carolina may sit two games below .500 heading into this game, but the team is starting to draw fans in Vegas due to being just a point away from a perfect 4-0 ATS record. The Panthers have used a resurgent passing attack led by Newton to out-gain all four opponents this year, but the rushing attack was losing ground in the play calling until last week’s performance.

Running backs Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams helped lead the squad to a season-high 169 yards on 26 carries, while also averaging a staggering 6.5-yard average. If the youthful offense can continue to find a balance between the air and ground attacks, Carolina will prove to be difficult to defense from here on out.

None of it may matter if the defensive unit continues to rank 31st in the league against the run, allowing the Chicago Bears to rush for 224 yards on 31 carries in last Sunday’s 34-29 loss as seven-point road underdogs. New Orleans has the ability to pound the rock with a stable of running backs, ranking 10th in the league in gaining 119 rushing yards a game, while averaging 4.5 yards a carry.

From a betting perspective, the road team’s 20-8 ATS record in this series may be too much for the Panthers to overcome.

Weather forecasts suggest partly cloudy skies and game-time temperatures in the mid-70s in the Charlotte area Sunday.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-04-2011, 10:44 PM

Oakland Raiders At Houston Texans Week 5 NFL Betting

The Houston Texans are coming off of one of the biggest wins in franchise history. However, they have a new test coming to Reliant Stadium in Week 5 NFL betting action, as the Oakland Raiders pay a visit to the Lone Star State.

Kickoff from Houston is slated for 1:00 p.m. (ET), and there will be regional television coverage on CBS.

Houston (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) really had a case of some good news and some bad news in last Sunday's win over the Steelers. The good news is that Arian Foster is back in the fold and looks completely healthy. He had 30 carries for 155 yards, and in there was the game-winning touchdown scamper in the fourth quarter after the Pittsburgh Steelers had erased a 10-0 deficit.

The bad news is that the best player in franchise history, Andre Johnson, spent the entire second half on the sidelines with a leg injury that might also keep him out of this one. Johnson is considered doubtful as of Tuesday, but head coach Gary Kubiak hasn't dismissed the idea that his perennial Pro Bowl receiver could be in the lineup against the Raiders.

In other injury news, neither Ben Tate nor Derrick Ward is expected to be able to give it a go, and if that's the case, it will only be Foster and rookie Chris Ogbonnaya available to tote the rock.

If Foster is able to carry the ball 20-25 times again this week, he will probably find a tremendous amount of success. The Raiders rank No. 29 in the league in rushing defense at 136.0 YPG.

Meanwhile, Oakland (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) is in search of a big time road win against a playoff caliber team, and the Raiders will use their own rushing prowess to try and get the job done.

Darren McFadden ranks No. 1 in the NFL on the ground with 468 yards, but the back that is with him in the backfield, Michael Bush, is dealing with an ankle injury that could keep him out of the fold.

That could put some added pressure on Jason Campbell to stand in there and try to pick apart the Houston secondary. The former Auburn Tiger has thrown for 928 yards and four scores this year, but also has three INTs to his credit.

The good news for Campbell is that he should have a relatively full arsenal of receivers to work with. Denarius Moore, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Jacoby Ford and Derek Hagan should be available for the second straight week.

Oakland hasn't had much in the way of luck against the Texans. The Raifers are only 1-5 SU and ATS in the last six meetings, and are 0-2 SU and ATS at Reliant Stadium. Both of those losses resulted in double-digit victories for the hosts.

The good news for the Raiders though, is that they have covered five games in a row following a defeat, and they are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS defeat.

Meanwhile, Houston is 1-5 ATS the last six games following a win. The Texans are also 0-6 ATS the last six seasons in Week 5 games.

The Texans opened up as 7-point favorites on the Week 5 betting lines, but they have since dropped to -6. The total has been set at 49.

Temperatures are likely going to be too warm to keep the Reliant Stadium roof open, as highs are forecast in the upper-80s. There is also a 30 percent chance of rain.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-04-2011, 10:45 PM

Struggling Seahawks Hit Road Against NY Giants

The New York Giants (3-1) begin a three-game homestand Sunday afternoon at MetLife Stadium against the struggling Seattle Seahawks (1-3).

Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. (ET), with the game being carried by FOX to the New York and Seattle areas.

This will be the Giants' third game against an NFC West opponent in the early going, with New York already defeating the Rams and Cardinals. The Seahawks won the NFC West last season with a 7-9 record and made the playoffs on the final night of the regular season with a victory over St. Louis.

New York pulled out a very frantic and unexpected victory last week in the desert against the Cardinals. The play that turned the game occurred on a long catch by Victor Cruz, in which he fell to the ground, dropped the ball and simply "gave himself up" to the defense according to referee Jerome Boger. The referees called Cruz down, even though no contact had taken place between Cruz and any defender. New York ended up winning the game 31-27 a few plays later.

The Giants opened up as an 11 ½-point favorite against Seattle, with the number now as low as 9 ½ at various pro football betting shops. The initial total of the game was 41 ½ and is now a half-point higher at 42.

The Seahawks have dropped their last six road games, and seven of their last eight away from home. Seattle has always had a ton of trouble coming up with victories outside CenturyLink Field where their “12th Man” gives them a big lift.

The last six meetings between the Seahawks and Giants have seen Seattle outgained through the air every single contest. I do not see that streak ending Sunday with Eli Manning (1066 passing yards) and Tavaris Jackson (846 passing yards) quarterbacking the two clubs.

Seattle and New York go into this game with plenty of big names listed on the injury report.

The Seahawks have four players who are questionable – CB Byron Maxwell (ankle), DB Kam Chancellor (quad), DE Anthony Hargrove (hamstring) and WR Mike Williams (concussion).

New York’s early injury report includes several key players, including defensive linemen Justin Tuck (groin) and Rocky Bernard (ribs) who are both questionable. Joining that pair on the same questionable status are WR Brandon Stokley (quad) and center David Bass (keck).

The good news is CB Prince Amukamara (foot) could be close to returning. Amukamara, an All-American at Nebraska, has yet to play this season after he fractured a metatarsal bone in his left foot during training camp.

The ‘over’ is 6-2 in the most recent eight matchups between the two clubs. Home teams are 9-1 SU in their last 10 meetings dating all the way back to 1986 and the Seahawks are 2-15 ATS as road underdogs in their last 17 games overall since 2009.

The Giants are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games versus a team with a losing road record.

Early weather reports show a beautiful sunny day for football in New York with temperatures reaching the upper-70s to low-80s during the contest.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-04-2011, 10:56 PM

Inside the Numbers - Week 5

October 4, 2011

Sunday, Oct 9 (1:00 p.m. ET)

Matchup Inside the Numbers

KC at IND

KC: 9-4 ATS L13 away underdog
KC: 7-2 ATS L9 away vs non-div
IND: 7-3 'under' L10 home
IND: 3-5 ATS L8 home vs non-div

ARZ at MIN

ARZ: 2-6 ATS L8 away underdog
ARZ: 6-2 ATS L8 off home loss
MIN: 1-4 ATS L5 vs ARZ
MIN: 1-6 ATS L7 home

Philly at BUFF

PHI: 6-3 ATS L9 away off home loss
PHI: 4-7 ATS L11 vs AFC
BUF: 3-6 ATS L9 vs NFC
BUF: 1-6 ATS L7 home off loss

Oak at Houston

OAK: 3-8 ATS L11 away vs non-div
OAK: 11-1 ATS L12 as 'dog off loss
HOU: 1-7 ATS L8 off win
HOU: 1-6 ATS L7 home vs non-div

NO at CAR

NOR: 4-8 ATS L12 vs division
NOR: 2-8 ATS L10 off away win
CAR: 7-3-2 'over' L12
CAR: 1-5 ATS L6 vs division

CIN at JAX

CIN: 4-2 ATS L6 away underdog
CIN: 4-1 ATS L5 off win
JAX: 3-11 ATS L14 home favorite
JAX: 2-5 ATS L7 home off loss

TEN at PITT

TEN: 4-7 ATS L11 away vs non-div
TEN: 3-8 ATS L11 off win
PIT: 5-2 ATS L7 home off loss
PIT: 7-3 ATS L10 home favorite

SEA at NYG

SEA: 2-15 ATS L17 away underdog
SEA: 3-7 ATS L10 off ATS win
NYG: 5-10 ATS L15 home favorite
NYG: 3-7 ATS L10 home vs non-div

Sunday, Oct 9 (4:05 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers
TAM at SFO

TAM: 8-0 ATS L8 away underdog
TAM: 5-0 ATS L5 off home win
SFO: 1-10-1 ATS L12 off ATS win
SFO: 10-5-2 ATS L17 home

Sunday, Oct 9 (4:15 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers
NYJ at NE

NYJ: 6-11 ATS L17 off loss
NYJ: 6-2 ATS L8 vs division
NEP: 7-4 ATS L11 home off win
NEP: 13-1 'over' L14

SDG at DEN

SDG: 2-4 ATS L6 away off win
SDG: 2-6 ATS L8 away favorite
DEN: 2-9 ATS L11 off road loss
DEN: 7-18-1 ATS L26 home

Sunday, Oct 2 (8:25 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers
GB at ATL

GBP: 13-8 ATS L21 away favorite
GBP: 3-5 ATS L8 off home win
ATL: 10-2 ATS L12 off ATS loss
ATL: 10-4 'over' L14

Monday, Oct 10 (8:35 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers
CHI at DET

CHI: 5-10-1 ATS L16 as away underdog
CHI: 3-6 ATS L9 vs DET
DET: 8-1 ATS L9
DET: 5-2 ATS L7 vs division

**StarDust Bum** · 10-04-2011, 10:58 PM

NFL Notebook - Week 5

October 4, 2011

Just Green Bay and Detroit remain unbeaten through four games.
The defending Super Bowl champion Packers' offense is even better than last season with Aaron Rodgers still improving, Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant healthy and Randall Cobb boosting the return game.

The Packers are on pace to score 592 points and Rodgers is on track to throw for 5,300 yards. Both marks would be single-season NFL records.

Certainly the Packers are for real. But what about the Lions? Just how good are they?

The Lions pulled off an overtime road victory against Minnesota two weeks ago after trailing by 20 points and then came from a staggering 24 points down in the third quarter to beat the Cowboys in Dallas. Minus those two improbable comebacks, Detroit would be an improved 2-2, but not worth being mentioned in the same breath as the mighty Packers.

Note, the Lions and Packers don't tangle until Thanksgiving Day on Nov. 24. They've never met that late in the season during a non-strike year.

It's the Lions who are the hottest team with eight straight victories. If you count preseason, the Lions have won 12 in a row. Are the Lions really this good?

Yes and no.

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Yes in the sense that wide receiver Calvin Johnson is the best in the game. Even Dallas defensive coordinator Rob Ryan should admit that now. Before Johnson burned the Cowboys for two touchdowns, Ryan ridiculously stated that Johnson wasn't as good as Dallas' two top wideouts, Dez Bryant and Miles Austin.

Yes in that Matthew Stafford is a major talent capable of making all the throws. When healthy he rates among the top seven quarterbacks and he's healthy now.

Yes, in that the Lions' defensive line could be the best in the league sparked by dominant tackle Ndamukong Suh.

Detroit last went 4-0 in 1980. The Lions didn't make the playoffs that year.

The Lions aren't a fluke this year. Matt Millen is far in the rear view mirror. Improvement has occurred each of the last two years as Jim Schwartz has upgraded the talent while providing solid coaching and leadership, something the Lions have consistently lacked since the 1950s.

But let's not get carried away. The Lions aren't nearly a complete enough team to be considered among the elite teams yet. Stafford has never lasted an entire season and Jahvid Best, by far the Lions' top runner, also has proven injury prone.

The Lions' offensive line is average-to-below average. The linebacking isn't anything special although Stephen Tulloch is a tackles machine and their secondary has gone from terrible to semi-respectable. Depth is a problem at linebacker.

It's easy to overlook these mediocre areas right now in the glow of the Lions' 4-0 mark and upcoming Monday night home game against the Bears. The spotlight and center stage clearly is on the Lions now. They are favored against the Bears for the first time since 2005.

This is the Lions' time now. Keep in mind, though, that they have tough matchups in five of their final six games hosting Green Bay on Thanksgiving followed by a road game against New Orleans, a home game versus Minnesota then at Oakland followed by a home matchup against San Diego and then a regular-season finale at Green Bay.

So don't anoint a playoff spot yet for the Lions.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-05-2011, 07:31 PM

Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Eagles dream season has been a nightmare so far as they play another tough game at the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. FOX will broadcast at 1:00 p.m. (ET).

The Eagles opened as 3-point road favorites, but currently range from one to 3-point ‘chalk’ at Don Best. The NFL betting total started at 48 ½-points, but is now 49 ½-50 across the board.

Backup quarterback Vince Young labeled his Eagles a ‘dream team’ after several high-profile offseason acquisitions (including him). The biggest names were on defense with cornerbacks Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, plus linemen Jason Babin and Cullen Jenkins.

The defense is still trying to mesh, ranking 30th in the NFL against the run (139.5 YPG) and tied for 23rd in points allowed (25.3 PPG). The latest indignity was blowing a 21-3 lead at home against San Francisco last week, allowing the normally mediocre Alex Smith to throw for 201 yards in the second half. Two missed fourth-quarter field goals also really hurt the Eagles.

Philadelphia (1-3 straight up and against the spread) has now lost three straight games after an opening 31-13 win at St. Louis and needs to worry about just getting a victory instead of any Super Bowl thoughts.

Mike Vick threw for a career-high 416 yards last game, 171 of them to receiver DeSean Jackson. The previous injury on his non-throwing hand didn’t seem to bother Vick, but he did hurt his finger and is listed as probable for Sunday.

The Eagles’ running game is second in the NFL at 163.5 YPG, but that’s in large part due to Vick’s 228 scrambling yards. LeSean McCoy has 363 rushing yards and is averaging 5.5 yards per carry, but the offensive line just isn’t physical enough to pound the ball at the goal line or other short yardage attempts.

Philly is also being hurt in the red zone with just eight touchdowns in 21 attempts (38 percent, ranked 23rd). Four red-zone turnovers have really hurt.

The Eagles now return on the road (1-1 SU and ATS) where they beat St. Louis and lost to Atlanta (35-31) in the first two games. Philly led Atlanta 31-21 but got outscored 14-0 in the fourth quarter with Vick injured on the sideline. The team has been outscored 36-0 in the final stanza over the last three games and has lost its swagger.

The ‘over’ is 2-0 in Philly’s road games this year and 10-1 in the last 11 away overall.

The Bills (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) saw their surprising start hit a roadblock with a 23-20 loss at Cincinnati last week as 3-point favorites. They actually led the game 17-3 at halftime, but imploded with a 20-3 deficit from there.

Coach Chan Gailey’s offense generated just 273 total yards with those 20 points. That’s far below the first three games of 431 YPG and 37.7 PPG. The ‘over’ is 4-0 on the year, just squeaking above the 42 ½-point total last week.

The Bills now return home to Ralph Wilson Stadium where they’re 2-0 SU, but not without heart palpitations. They turned 21-3 and 21-0 deficits versus Oakland and New England into 38-35 and 34-31 wins. The Oakland game was a failure to ‘cover’ as 3 ½-point favorites, while they were 7-point ‘dogs versus New England.

Defensively, Buffalo ranks just 24th against the pass (275.5 YPG) and 25th against the run (129.5 YPG). Controlling Vick and the skill position players won’t be easy even with Philly missing injured left tackle (and former Bill) Jason Peters.

Running back Fred Jackson should get plenty of work this week with Eagles defensive tackle Antonio Dixon (tricep) out for the year. He was their best run stopper, while getting little help from the struggling linebackers. Trent Cole (calf) is out and fellow defensive ends Darryl Tapp (knee) and Juqua Parker (ankle) are questionable, adding to the woes.

Controlling the ball with Jackson, the league’s fourth leading rusher (369 yards), will help keep Vick on the sidelines. It also allows quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to keep his pass attempts under 35 where they belong.

These teams haven’t met since 2007 and have hooked-up only three times since 1999 (the ‘under’ 3-0).

Weather is expected to be sunny and in the 70s, extremely warm for upstate New York this time of year.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-05-2011, 07:33 PM

Kansas City Chiefs Visit Winless Indianapolis Colts

The Chiefs have won just one of their last 10 encounters with the Colts.
The Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs only have one victory between them this year, but one of the two will put a notch in the win column on Sunday when they meet up at Lucas Oil Field. Week 5's kickoff from Indianapolis is slated for 1:00 p.m. (ET), and there will be regional television coverage on CBS.

It's hard to think that both the Colts (0-4 SU, 2-2 ATS) and Chiefs (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) were division winners a season ago. They are both heading for Top 5 picks in the NFL Draft, and the argument could be made that the loser of this one is in a lot better shape than the winner. The loser will clearly have an inside track towards getting Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck with the No. 1 pick in the 2012 NFL Draft.

There are definitely some bright spots for both of these teams, though.

Kansas City is coming off its best game of the season, a 22-17 win over the Minnesota Vikings. Matt Cassel had his best game so far, throwing for 260 yards and a TD, and he is really taking advantage of a respectable and dynamic set of receivers.

The Colts and their Cover 2 scheme could have some problems trying to stick with all of these options. Dwayne Bowe has had three straight solid games after a sluggish start to the campaign, including last week when he had five grabs for 107 yards and a score. Steve Breaston is the deep threat of the bunch, and he has averaged 17.9 YPR this year.

Don't forget about Dexter McCluster either. The diminutive back out of Ole Miss has 164 yards on the ground and 52 through the air, and he is a threat to score every single time he touches the ball.

Still, the Chiefs only have four offensive touchdowns for the entire season, and without the injured Jamaal Charles in the lineup, there is definitely an element missing to this team.

The Colts are still winless, but at least they've stuck in front of the NFL odds in both of their last two games, each a prime-time broadcast.

We've always known that defense was a problem for Indianapolis, thus it is no surprise that this squad ranks No. 25 in the league at 390.2 YPG allowed and No. 28 in scoring at 27.0 PPG allowed.

However, the real Achilles heel right now is the offense, which has only been good for 270.0 yards and 15.8 points per game. Curtis Painter is only completing 43.9 percent of his passes, but he did hook up with Pierre Garcon for two long touchdown passes in last week's loss at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Painter still has some weapons to choose from, as Garcon, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and Austin Collie still make up a formidable bunch.

This is the fourth time since the 2007 playoffs that these two teams have locked horns, and all of those meetings have come in Indianapolis. The Colts are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in the previous three outings.

Dating back to 1996, Kansas City is only 2-8 ATS and 1-9 SU against Indianapolis.

The NFL betting lines for this week have opened up with the Colts favored by a single point. That spread has since risen as high as 2 ½. The total is relatively low at 38 ½.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-05-2011, 07:36 PM

Week 5 Preview: Raiders at Texans

OAKLAND RAIDERS (2-2)

at HOUSTON TEXANS (3-1)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Houston -5.5, Total: 49.5

Two AFC teams on the rise meet up Sunday in Houston when the 3-1 Texans host the 2-2 Raiders.

The healthy return of RB Arian Foster is terrible news for an Oakland run defense that’s been gashed all year, allowing 136 YPG (fourth-most in NFL) and 5.9 yards per carry. Foster ran for 155 yards against a far better Pittsburgh defense in Week 4, and his presence outweighs the absence of WR Andre Johnson (hamstring). The Texans franchise is 5-1 (SU and ATS) against the Raiders all-time, winning last year’s meeting 31-24 in Oakland without Johnson. In that game, Foster ran for 133 yards on just 17 carries (7.8 YPC), as Houston rushed for 249 yards on 6.9 YPC. With the Raiders defense also subpar against the pass (274 YPG, 22nd in league), the pick here is HOUSTON to win and cover.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also supports picking the Texans.

Play Against - Road underdogs or pick (OAKLAND) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. (22-3 over the last 5 seasons.) (88%, +18.7 units. Rating = 3*).

Arian Foster is an elite running back, but Oakland’s Darren McFadden might be even better. He leads the NFL with 468 rushing yards and Michael Vick is the only NFL player that has gained more yards per carry than McFadden’s gaudy 6.2 YPC average. McFadden had 129 total yards (47 rushing, 82 receiving) against Houston last year. QB Jason Campbell didn’t play against the Texans last year, but he is coming off a big performance, throwing for 344 yards in last week’s loss to New England. His offense could be a bit short-handed on Sunday as WR Louis Murphy (groin) and FB Marcel Reece (ankle) are both questionable, and Michael Bush is less than 100 percent with an ankle injury. The defense could get a boost though, as S Michael Huff is back at practice after missing last week’s contest with a concussion. Oakland has won three in a row ATS on the road.

The Texans are a bit undermanned on offense with Johnson likely out three weeks, RB Derrick Ward out indefinitely (ankle) and RB Ben Tate questionable with a groin injury. QB Matt Schaub still has weapons in the passing game, especially with two talented tight ends in Owen Daniels (14 rec, 182 yds, 3 TD) and James Casey (9 rec, 163 yds, 1 TD). Schaub has not looked particularly sharp against the Raiders in four career games against them (52% completions, 168 passing YPG, 3 TD, 2 INT), but this secondary no longer has All-Pro CB Nnamdi Asomugha. Houston’s defense is led by the pass-rushing duo of Mario Williams and Antonio Smith, who each have four sacks this year. This pair is a big reason why the team ranks 10th in the NFL in passing defense (214 YPG).

**StarDust Bum** · 10-05-2011, 07:38 PM

Week 5 Preview: Eagles at Bills

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (1-3)

at BUFFALO BILLS (3-1)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -2.5, Total: 50

Philadelphia, the team that many pundits picked to reach the Super Bowl, try to end a three-game losing skid when it travels to 3-1 Buffalo on Sunday.

The Eagles have the ability to turn the Bills into a one-dimensional offense, as they have the talent and depth at cornerback to shut down Ryan Fitzpatrick and Buffalo’s receiving corps. However, the Bills could use RB Fred Jackson to plow through an Eagles run defense that’s been overwhelmed by the run all season (140 YPG, 3rd-most in NFL). The Eagles obviously have the firepower to keep up. The Bills pass defense has done a solid job limiting big plays, but Leodis McKelvin was torched by Bengals rookie A.J. Green a couple of times last week and will be picked on when trying to cover DeSean Jackson or Jeremy Maclin. Expect PHILADELPHIA to get back on the winning track with a season-saving road win (and cover).

This three-star FoxSheets trend also favors the Eagles.

Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, after the first month of the season. (42-15 over the last 10 seasons.) (73.7%, +25.5 units. Rating = 3*).

The Eagles already-suspect offensive line took a hit with LT Jason Peters likely out several weeks with a strained hamstring. The injury bug hit the defensive line even harder, as DE Trent Cole (calf) is out three weeks and DT Antonio Dixon is done for the season after suffering a torn triceps. If they can’t put pressure on Ryan Fitzpatrick, Philly will be in for another long afternoon. Offensively, Philly is averaging 445 YPG during its losing skid, but has three giveaways in each of those defeats. The running game, especially LeSean McCoy, needs to get back on track in Buffalo. The Eagles lead the NFC in rushing (164 YPG), but only had 108 in last week’s home loss to San Francisco, as McCoy carried nine times for just 18 yards.

The Bills’ high-powered offense that averaged 409 YPG in their first three contests was stymied in Cincinnati, as Buffalo was held to a meager 273 total yards in a 23-20 defeat. The Bills only scored one offensive touchdown and squandered a 17-3 halftime lead in the loss. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick only averaged 5.9 yards per pass attempt, but he is having a strong season with 260 passing YPG, 9 TD and 3 INT. Fred Jackson has been the team’s best player, ranking fourth in the NFL in rushing (369 yards) and fourth in YPC (5.8). Both players could be affected by the loss of starting LT Demetrius Bell who is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury. Buffalo’s defense has been equally as bad in both facets of the game, ranking 25th in the NFL in both passing (276 YPG) and rushing (130 YPG). These numbers could improve greatly if the team’s top cornerback, Terrence McGee, returns to help out McKelvin and the rest of the secondary. McGee strained his hamstring in Week 1 at Kansas City, and is finally practicing with the team.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-05-2011, 07:40 PM

Week 5 Preview: Titans at Steelers

TENNESSEE TITANS (3-1)

at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (2-2)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Pittsburgh -3, Total: 39.5

The banged-up Steelers look to get back on track hosting a red-hot Tennessee team that is riding a three-game win streak.

Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger has taken a beating behind a revolving door offensive line, but is expected to start Sunday despite his foot sprain suffered in last week’s loss in Houston. The Steelers have won slugfests in each of the past two years against the Titans (13-10 and 19-11), including a victory in Tennessee with third-string QB Dennis Dixon under center last season. With Vince Young then Kerry Collins under center for the Titans that day, Tennessee mustered just 238 yards of offense and turned it over seven times. Both teams have a different look this year though; the Titans are more reliant on the passing game while the Steelers’ aging defense is struggling to stop the run. Pittsburgh has been a great bet at home recently, going 8-3 ATS since the start of last season, and this team usually comes through when it is desperate for a victory. The play here is PITTSBURGH to win and cover.

This FoxSheets trend also sides with the Steelers.

Play Against - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TENNESSEE) - off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, after the first month of the season. (27-7 since 1983.) (79.4%, +19.3 units. Rating = 2*).

Roethlisberger has thrown the ball pretty well in his career against a Titans pass defense that is usually top-notch (72% completion rate, 303 passing YPG), but he has also tossed four picks in these three games. The Steelers have other injury concerns in addition to Roethlisberger’s foot. LB James Harrison is out several weeks after fracturing the orbital bone around his right eye and DE Aaron Smith is doubtful to play because of a foot injury. The news is better on the offensive side of the ball as RB Rashard Mendenhall’s hamstring and OT Jonathan Scott’s ankle appeared healed enough to allow these two to suit up on Sunday. Mendenhall has struggled with the ever-changing O-Line, gaining just 173 yards on 3.0 YPC this season.

RB Chris Johnson finally had his first 100-yard game of the season last Sunday, gaining 101 yards against the Browns. But the Steel Curtain stuffed him last year, as Johnson rushed 16 times for just 34 yards. Tennessee is very comfortable with its new QB Matt Hasselbeck, who despite not having his top WR Kenny Britt last week, still threw for 220 yards and three touchdowns. He has averaged 281 passing YPG with 8 TD and 3 INT this year. The Titans defense has also performed better than expected, ranking seventh in the league against the pass (212 YPG) and eighth against the run (88 YPG). Star safety Chris Hope returned to the lineup last week after missing two games because of a shoulder injury, but then broke his arm against the Browns and will be out 4-to-6 weeks.

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