The Bum's NLDS & ALDS Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday, October 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Arizona - 2:00 PM ET Arizona +130 500

Milwaukee - Under 7 500

St. Louis - 5:00 PM ET Philadelphia -216 500

Philadelphia - Over 7 500

[StarDust Bum]

Lee, Phillies Clash With Cardinals NLDS Game 2

The St. Louis Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies will continue their best-of-five series in the National League Divisional Series on Sunday night. Game 2 takes place at 8:07 p.m. (ET) from Citizens Bank Ballpark, and there will be live television coverage on TBS.

The Cards certainly have their work cut out for them this weekend. Not only did they have to run up against Roy Halladay in Game 1, but now, they have another superstar to contend with in Cliff Lee in Game 2.

Lee truly made a name for himself two years ago in his first stint with these Phillies. In that postseason, the first of his career, he went 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA. Lee struck out 33 batters and allowed just six walks and 10 hits in 40 1/3-innings of work to lead the Phils to a second straight World Series.

Then, the southpaw went to the Texas Rangers in 2010 after being traded twice, and he had three more remarkable starts, dominating the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees, allowing just two total runs in 24 innings, striking out 34 and walking just one.

Lee was toppled in the World Series though, making it the second straight year in which he played for the team that fell just short of the top of the baseball mountain. He's back for revenge now, and for the first time in his postseason career, he isn't being counted upon to be the ace that carries the staff.

This year, Lee was as dominating as ever. He went 17-8 with a 2.40 ERA, and there is a chance that he can contend for the NL Cy Young Award. His walks were up with 42 on the year, but he also fanned 238 batters and ended the year with a svelte 1.03 WHIP.

It's not as though the Cardinals have had any success against Lee either. The last time he faced them, Lee pitched a complete game shutout, allowing just six hits and a walk in the process. For his career, Lee is 3-1 with a 1.48 ERA in four starts versus St. Louis.

Manager Tony La Russa is put in a precarious position for Game 2. He obviously still doesn't have arguably his best pitcher, Adam Wainwright, who didn't throw a pitch this year after Tommy John surgery in the spring. On top of that, he let Chris Carpenter throw a complete game shutout against the Houston Astros on the final day of the regular season.

Despite Carpenter working off that complete game on short rest, La Russa is still going to hand the ball to his big veteran. It will mark the first time in a career that started with Toronto in 1997 that Carpenter will be working on three days of rest.

The 2011 campaign started very rough for Carpenter with St. Louis dropping nine of his first 11 starts while he compiled a suspect 4.58 ERA. He chopped more than a run off that mark by season's end, and his work against the Phils in 2011 was a big part of that.

Two starts against Philadelphia netted the right-hander two wins. He allowed just one run over 15 frames vs. this lineup, including eight innings of shutout baseball here at Citizens Bank Park just two weeks ago. Lifetime vs. the Phils, Carpenter is 7-3 with a 4.27 ERA.

The good news for the Cardinals is that they did win three out of four games here in the City of Brotherly Love in September as a part of their unpredictable push into the postseason, so there definitely is some hope for an upset.

It's going to be a brisk night in Philadelphia, with temperatures dropping into the 30s. There is a 30 percent chance of showers.

[StarDust Bum]

Milwaukee Brewers, D-Backs NLDS Game 2

The Milwaukee Brewers host the Arizona Diamondbacks Sunday afternoon in pivotal Game 2 of their best-of-five NLDS.

First pitch is expected shortly after 5:00 p.m. (ET) at Miller Park, and will feature talented young pitchers Daniel Hudson and Zack Greinke.

Every contest is critical in a five-game series, but Game 2 sets the tone for the remainder of the series. If both teams are split 1-1, home field shifts to the road team, in this case Arizona. But if the team that won Game 1 takes a 2-0 lead, it forces their opponent to win three straight games to advance.

Milwaukee (96-66) finished the regular season on a high note, winning five of the last six games (+3.25 units) and nine of the final 12 (+4.75 units). The Brewers turn to their staff ace Sunday to try and leave for Arizona on a high note.

Greinke (16-6, 3.83 ERA) has pitched lights out over the second half of the season with a 2.59 ERA and a 9-3 record over 15 starts. The Brewers were 12-3 (+8.15 units) over those starts.

He will will be working on just three days rest for the second straight time, but only threw 74 pitches in his last outing. Greinke was a logical choice at home as he boasts an 11-0 record in 15 starts at Miller Park this season. The Brewers won his four no decisions, so they were 15-0 (+15.00 units) in his home starts in 2011.

Sunday’s game will be Greinke’s postseason debut. In his one game against Arizona this season on July 21, he pitched seven strong innings allowing only two runs, but was outdueled by Ian Kennedy.

Arizona (94-68) also finished the season strong, winning seven of its last 10 games (+2.35 units). While Arizona’s big bats were critical to winning the NL West, the excellent performances by Ian Kennedy and Hudson also went a long way.

Hudson (16-12, 3.49 ERA) lost his last three starts of the season (-4.70 units), but had won his previous four (+4.00 units). The Diamondbacks will need him at his best in his postseason debut.

The former Old Dominion star lasted only four innings in his only start against Milwaukee this season back on July 4, giving up six runs (five earned) in the process.

In seven regular season games between these two teams, Arizona edged out Milwaukee with a 4-3 record. The total trended ‘under’ at 4-3. Interestingly, the total has gone ‘under’ in each of Hudson’s last eight starts.

Milwaukee was a great betting option at home this year, finishing with a 57-24 record at home (+25.50 units), while Arizona was also profitable as an away team with a 43-38 record (+13.25 units).

Clear skies are in the Milwaukee forecast for Sunday evening, with a game-time temp around 60 and an eight mph breeze out of the northwest.

[StarDust Bum]

What bettors need to know:

Sunday's NLDS matchups

St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies (-170, 7)

THE STORY: Chris Carpenter has never ventured to the mound on three days' rest during his career. The St. Louis Cardinals are hoping Carpenter's maiden voyage is a successful one on Sunday as they look to even their National League Division Series at one game apiece against the Philadelphia Phillies. The visiting Cardinals watched as an early three-run lead went by the boards and the NL East champions benefited from a five-run sixth inning to record an 11-6 triumph in Game 1. Cliff Lee will provide the opposition for the Phillies, who have won six consecutive games in the NLDS.

TV: 8:37 p.m. ET, TBS

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Chris Carpenter (11-9, 3.45 ERA) vs. Phillies LH Cliff Lee (17-8, 2.40 ERA)

Carpenter was simply brilliant in his last outing, scattering two hits and striking out 11 in a complete-game gem against the Houston Astros on Wednesday. The 36-year-old former Cy Young Award winner owns an impressive 7-2 career mark against the Phillies - with a pair of victories to his credit this season. He allowed one run over seven innings in an eventual 12-2 rout on June 23 before tossing eight scoreless frames in a 5-0 win on Sept. 18.

This is why Lee returned to the City of Brotherly Love - although a five-year deal worth $120 million can certainly help him purchase his fair share of cheesesteaks, too. Lee hopes to take the first step toward a third straight World Series appearance when he takes the mound on Sunday. The 33-year-old Arkansas native improved to 3-1 in his career against the Cardinals by scattering six hits in a complete-game shutout on June 22.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS: Lance Berkman belted a three-run homer in the first inning to quiet the crowd at Citizens Bank Park on Saturday. Berkman's blast was his first since he got the better of Roy Halladay last month as well. Berkman has fared well versus Lee, going 5-for-13 in his career with three doubles. Albert Pujols went 1-for-3, but manager Tony La Russa noted that the slugger is being plagued by a minor heel injury. Rafael Furcal returned from a two-game absence with a hamstring injury and went 1-for-4. Five-time All-Star outfielder Matt Holliday did not start due to tendinitis in his right hand. He struck out to end the game.

ABOUT THE PHILLIES: Ryan Howard launched a three-run homer to ignite a five-run sixth inning on Saturday. The St. Louis native added a run-scoring sacrifice fly for his 31st RBI in postseason play, moving him into first place in franchise history. Hunter Pence enjoyed his first taste of the postseason, going 2-for-5 with a two-run single in the eighth inning. Both Phillies stars have struggled against Carpenter - with Howard going 2-for-9 and Pence 4-for-22, respectively. Chase Utley has been swinging a hot bat, collecting seven hits in his last three contests. He went 3-for-5 and scored three times on Saturday.

FINAL PITCH: The first six hitters in Philadelphia's lineup combined to go 13-for-25 with two homers and 11 RBIs.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers (-150, 7)

THE STORY: The Milwaukee Brewers used a familiar formula to jump out in Game 1 - strong starting pitching and some big hits from the middle of the lineup. The Arizona Diamondbacks will be looking to send the series back to Phoenix even when they tap Daniel Hudson to start Game 2 at Miller Park on Sunday.

TV: 5:07 p.m. ET, TBS

PITCHING MATCHUP: Diamondbacks RH Daniel Hudson (16-12, 3.49 ERA) vs. Brewers RH Zack Greinke (16-6, 3.83 ERA).

Hudson lost his final three starts to close the regular season, posting a 4.26 ERA over that span. The 24-year old totaled just 50 walks in 222 innings but struggled with his command a bit down the stretch, issuing seven free passes in those last three turns. Hudson was knocked around for six runs - five earned - in four innings against the Brewers on July 4, including a grand slam by opposing pitcher Shaun Marcum.

Greinke getting the ball for Game 2 is a bit of a surprise, as Milwaukee had originally planned on using him in Arizona for Game 3. But the righthander, who will be working on three days’ rest, is 11-0 with a 3.13 ERA at home. The Brewers are 15-0 at Miller Park when Greinke starts. He dropped his lone start against the Diamondbacks on July 21, allowing two runs and five hits over seven innings at Chase Field.

ABOUT THE DIAMONDBACKS: The only time Arizona had a chance against Yovani Gallardo in Game 1 came in the first, when Willie Bloomquist was thrown out at the plate trying to score from second on a single to left. Aggressive base running was one of the staples of the Diamondbacks offense in 2011 and their overall advantage in team speed is something they will continue to try to exploit.

ABOUT THE BREWERS: Gallardo struck out nine and never gave Arizona a chance after that first inning. Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder combined for five hits and three runs scored. Fielder put the game out of reach in the seventh when he belted a two-out, two-run homer off Ian Kennedy. Gallardo’s performance meant that Milwaukee did not have to deploy its full component of bullpen weapons, needing only three outs from closer John Axford.

FINAL PITCH: Since the wild card was introduced in the 1995 playoffs, the team that wins the first game of the division series is 47-17, including 29-3 in the National League.

[StarDust Bum]

Payoff pitch: Sunday's best MLB mound matchup

Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies

Chris Carpenter (11-9, 3.45 ERA)

The Cardinals caught fire in September to reach the playoffs and so, too, did Chris Carpenter. He went 3-0 during the final month of the regular season with a 2.15 ERA. In his last five starts, a span of 40 innings, the veteran has given up a mere five runs.

It took a while for him to finally make the playoffs, but the 36-year-old righty has plenty of recent postseason experience. In nine starts over three appearances in 2005, 2006, and 2009, Carpenter boasts a 5-2 record and a 2.93 ERA. When the Cardinals won it all in 2006, he compiled a 3-1 record and a 2.78 ERA in five starts.

Carpenter has stymied the Phillies in two starts this season. He has pitched 15 innings against the National League's top seed, allowing only one run while striking out 12 hitters.

It must be noted that Carpenter is going on three days of rest after shutting down Houston in the wild-card clincher on Wednesday. Manager Tony LaRussa explained the obvious--that he wants his ace ready and able to pitch two games out of a possible five.

“If you look at our five starters and one guy has to be picked to pitch two games of the five, it’s got to be Chris,” La Russa said. "As we've gotten into the season, he's gotten stronger and stronger. He actually feels better now than he did the first half of the year."

Cliff Lee (17-8, 2.40 ERA)

Lee decided to return to Philadelphia during the offseason and neither party is regretting it. The Phillies chalked up the best record in baseball (by far) and Lee was good from start to finish throughout the regular season--especially at the finish. His team won four of his five September starts and he tallied a 1.42 ERA, striking out 40 in 38 innings of work.

Like his Game 2 counterpart, Lee has been outstanding in the playoffs. It has not been an extensive postseason career for the 33-year-old southpaw, but he has started 10 games in two trips (2009 and 2010) while compiling a 7-2 record to go along with a 2.13 ERA. In 2009 Lee went 4-0 with a miniscule 1.56 ERA before his team got tripped up by the Yankees in the World Series.

As for his exploits against the Cardinals this season, well, that category is also rock-solid. Lee has started two games versus St. Louis, going 1-1 with an impressive 1.76 ERA in 15 1-3 innings. He faced the Cards most recently on June 22 and tossed a complete-game shutout.

[StarDust Bum]

Hot lines: Sunday's best MLB bet

Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers

Arizona thought it received some good news when St. Louis stole the wild card from Atlanta, thus sending the Diamondbacks to Milwaukee instead of Philadelphia to face the mighty Phillies.

Perhaps that news was not so good after all.

Arizona mustered just four hits and one run in a 4-1 Game 1 loss to the Brewers on Saturday afternoon. Yovani Gallardo went eight innings and mowed down nine Diamondbacks' hitters. The D-Backs are now 1-7 in their last eight playoff road games and 0-5 in their last five postseason games overall.

If scoring runs was a problem against Gallardo, it could be even more difficult against Miller Park master Zack Greinke. Milwaukee is a hard-to-imagine 15-0 in Greinke's 15 home starts this season. The right-hander is 11-0 in the friendly confines of his own ballpark and sports a 3.13 ERA (compared to 4.70 on the road) with 119 strikeouts in 95 innings.

Going for the Diamondbacks is Daniel Hudson, who was a consistent force throughout the regular season. The 24-year-old righty compiled a 16-12 record to go along with a solid 3.49 ERA. Although he really heated up down the stretch, Arizona lost his final three starts and Hudson--despite decent numbers--took the loss in all three.

Pick: Brewers

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/01/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*1000 Detail

Totals 3-*1-*0 75.00% +1000


Sunday, October 2

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Detroit - 3:00 PM ET Detroit +139 500

NY Yankees - Over 9 500

Arizona - 5:00 PM ET Milwaukee -163 500

Milwaukee - Over 7 500

St. Louis - 8:30 PM ET St. Louis +172 500

Philadelphia - Over 7 500

[Spark]

Good Luck today bum

[StarDust Bum]

Rangers And Rays Shift East For ALDS Game 3

After six straight losses by the home team over the course of two playoff series, the Texas Rangers finally broke through on Saturday for an 8-6 win for the hosts in the American League Divisional Series.

Now, after losing all three games at home against the Rangers in the first round of last year's playoffs, the Tampa Bay Rays will look to make amends on Monday night and take the lead in this best-of-five series. The two squads head to Tropicana Field for Games 3 and 4. Monday's first pitch is slated for 5:07 p.m. (ET), and there will be live television coverage on TBS.

The Rangers know that they are going to have their work cut out for them coming into the Trop, where Tampa Bay went 47-34 on the campaign.

Manager Ron Washington is going to hand the ball off to Colby Lewis on Monday.

Lewis pitched relatively well in last season's playoffs, allowing two runs or fewer in all four of his starts. He went 3-0 in those outings, but the only game the Rangers lost that he started came against these Rays.

Of course, it wasn't Lewis' fault, as he allowed just two hits in five scoreless innings of work before the bullpen blew up for six runs allowed.

This year wasn't the greatest for Lewis. He did post a career-high 14 wins, but a 4.40 ERA leaves a lot to the imagination. He struck out 169 men, down 27 from last season, and allowed a whopping 35 homers, 14 more than in 2010 in almost exactly the same number of innings.

Tampa Bay has been thriving off the long ball in this series. Evan Longoria blasted a three-run homer in the 8-6 loss in Game 2, while Kelly Shoppach has two homers. Both Johnny Damon and Matt Joyce have gone yard once as well.

The last time we saw David Price on the hill, Rays fans everywhere had to think that their season was over. He was tabbed with duties on the last day of the regular season against the New York Yankees, and was awful to say the least. Price allowed six runs (five earned) over just four innings. Of course, his team bailed him out in the latter innings, rallying from a 7-0 deficit to get into the playoffs.

Price was known as a big-game pitcher his rookie year when he helped pitch Tampa Bay to the World Series, but we aren't so sure at this point that he has the ability to win when he is desperately needed.

Price allowed 11 runs in his final two starts of the regular season, both of which came at home, and he got the loss in both Games 1 and 5 in the ALDS last year against the Rangers. It was Cliff Lee opposing him on the mound in those two games, not Lewis, so that should make a huge difference.

Price only went 12-13 this year, but did post a 3.49 ERA and struck out a career-high 218 batters.

The Rays are 20-6 in their last 26 games here at the Trop, but only went 3-3 in the regular season against Texas.

Game 4 is slated for Tuesday, with the time to be determined. Matt Harrison is schedule to throw against Jeremy Hellickson.

[StarDust Bum]

Yankees At Tigers For Pivotal ALDS Game 3

If there was anything good to come out of rain suspending Game 1 of the ALDS last Friday between the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees, it was the fact it came early before either staff ace had made a full-blown start.

CC Sabathia (23-11, 3.01) and Justin Verlander (25-10, 2.43) will square off once again with the series all square at a game apiece. Action shifts to Detroit for Game 3 on Monday night with the first pitch from Comerica Park set for 8:37 p.m. (ET), and TBS once again will provide the broadcast.

Suffice to say that neither pitcher has ever made a start on two days rest, and it will be interesting to see just how long the managers leave their best arms on the mound. Unless there are more rainouts or suspensions, it figures that neither Sabathia nor Verlander appear again this series.

Verlander had a 25-pitch first inning Friday, and the Yankees turned a couple of walks into a run. Sabathia had a more efficient two innings, throwing 27 times and striking out four with Delmon Young's 2-out homer in the top of the first the only damage against the New York lefty.

Doug Fister and Ivan Nova took over Saturday when the game resumed, and the Yankees lineup finally got to Fister in the sixth on the way to a 9-3 victory. Officially, Nova worked 6 1/3-innings of 'relief' to pick up the win while Fister went 4 2/3-innings and was charged with six runs. Robinson Cano's grand slam during the 6-run sixth was the key blow of the game and part of a 6-RBI evening for the New York second baseman.

Game 2 on Sunday was all about Detroit's Max Scherzer who didn't allow a hit until the sixth, leaving in the seventh with the Yankees still at zero on the scoreboard. The Yanks made it very interesting in the bottom of the ninth against Jose Valverde with a hard rain starting to fall. But the Tigers closer got Cano to ground out to end the threat, and Detroit held on for a 5-3 victory as +130-135 underdogs.

Verlander's home/road splits didn't vary that much during the regular season. His ERA was a bit lower at home than on the road, 2.37 compared to 2.43, and he recorded slight better WHIP and batting average marks on the road. The big right-hander hasn't really seen too much of Comerica Park since the end of June, with this just his sixth start there of the last 18.

Sabathia allowed a lot more traffic on the basepaths away from Yankee Stadium during the season, but limited the long balls and had a slightly better road ERA than at home.

New York won 11 of Sabathia's 17 road starts, good for all of $1.75 on the MLB odds.

Weather might once again be a factor with forecasters calling for a 30 percent chance of afternoon showers that could bleed over into the early evening. The thermometer is expected to be in the upper 50s for the start of the game with a 10-12 mph wind from the north (out to left-center).

Odds opened with Verlander and the Motown Cats -130. It's the first time this season Sabathia has not been a favorite. The total is seven.

New York skipper Joe Girardi has penciled in the much-maligned AJ Burnett to start Game 4 on Tuesday. Jim Leyland will send Rick Porcello to the hill for Detroit.

[StarDust Bum]

Aces back on: CC, Verlander in Game 3

October 2, 2011

NEW YORK (AP) - The matchup of aces is back on.

CC Sabathia is scheduled to start Monday for the New York Yankees against Tigers right-hander Justin Verlander in Game 3 of their American League playoff in Detroit. The two perennial All-Stars squared off in the series opener Friday night at Yankee Stadium but the game was suspended after only 1 1/2 innings because of rain, disappointing fans who were geared up for a pitchers' duel.

Tigers manager Jim Leyland immediately said Verlander would be back on the mound Monday, but Yankees skipper Joe Girardi did not confirm his plans for Sabathia until Sunday.

Girardi also said right-hander A.J. Burnett would start Game 4 if the best-of-five series goes that far.

[StarDust Bum]

Lewis-Price square off for Game 3 in Tampa

TEXAS RANGERS (97-67)

at TAMPA BAY RAYS (92-72)


ALDS Game 3 - Series Tied 1-1
First pitch: Monday, 5:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Tampa Bay -135, Texas +125, Total: 7.5

The Rays will look to regain control of the series when they head back to Tampa on Monday to play the visiting Rangers. Tampa Bay looked poised to take a commanding 2-0 series lead, but a big inning in Saturday’s Game 2 left the series tied at 1-1.

Colby Lewis (14-10, 4.40 ERA) will be on the mound Monday night for the Rangers. Lewis faced Tampa once this year and pitched a gem, throwing eight shutout innings and allowing only four hits, while striking out eight. On the hill for the Rays is the lefty David Price (12-13, 3.49 ERA) who has had his problems against Texas, going 0-5 with a 5.48 ERA in eight starts against the Rangers (including playoffs). And the Rangers are 34-12 (73.9%, +22.4 Units) this year against AL starters with a WHIP of 1.20 or better. The pick here is underdog TEXAS to win the all-important Game 3.

This rare four-star FoxSheets trend also sides with the Rangers.

Road teams (TEXAS) - having won 12 or more of their last 15 games, in October games. (42-17 since 1997.) (71.2%, +30.7 units. Rating = 4*).

Texas ended the regular season winning six in a row and 10 out of 11, and will try to harness the momentum towards another World Series appearance. Lewis hopes he can pitch as he did in last year’s postseason, when he went 3-0 with a tremendous 1.71 ERA in four starts. The big right-hander had an up-and-down year, but is coming off a solid performance on Tuesday when he threw six innings, allowing two runs on only three hits. In his past three starts against the Rays, Lewis has only allowed one run and 10 hits in 18 innings.

David Price had a rough September, going 0-2 with a 4.01 ERA in six starts and walking 16 batters in 33.2 innings during the month. The hard-throwing lefty will also have to forget about last year’s playoffs, when he lost a pair of games to Cliff Lee and ended with a 4.97 ERA in the two home starts. Price won 19 games a year ago and nearly was awarded the Cy Young Award and knows that it is his time to step up. The 1997 first overall pick may only be 25 years old, but has been exposed to the big stage many times with seven playoff appearances (five in relief).

[StarDust Bum]

Sabathia-Verlander take the hill for Monday's Game 3

NEW YORK YANKEES (98-66)

at DETROIT TIGERS (96-68)


ALDS Game 3 - Series Tied 1-1
First pitch: Monday, 8:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Detroit -125, New York +115, Total: 7

The New York Yankees will travel to Detroit to face the Tigers for a crucial Game 3 on Monday night. Detroit picked up a big road win on Sunday in New York and now has home-field advantage with a best-of-3 waiting to be played.

New York will send out its ace CC Sabathia (19-8, 3.00 ERA) on Monday night. Sabathia has not enjoyed throwing in Detroit of late, going 0-4 with a 7.56 ERA in his past four starts at Comerica Park. The Tigers will send an ace of their own in Justin Verlander (24-5, 2.40 ERA). Verlander was once again spectacular at home this year, going 10-3 with a 2.37 ERA in 16 home starts this season, giving him a home record of 32-8 (80%) since 2009. The Yanks also have had an odd problem of playing at night, where they are just 54-53 (-17.6 Units). The Tigers have been tremendous when tabbed as a favorite of -125 to -175, going 41-17 (+16.5 Units), including 16-2 when Verlander starts with the same lines. Detroit is 50-31 at home and has also has handled lefty starters pretty well, going 31-21. With an electric home crowd and an electric fastball from the league’s best pitcher in Verlander, the pick is for DETROIT to take command of the series Monday night and defeat Sabathia and the Bronx Bombers.

This four-star FoxSheets trend also backs the Tigers.

DETROIT is 22-5 (81.5%, +18.8 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last 5 games this season. The average score was DETROIT 5.4, OPPONENT 3.0 - (Rating = 4*).

This five-star FoxSheets trend also sees a classic pitchers’ duel finishing UNDER the small total of 7.

DETROIT is 13-0 UNDER (+13.0 Units) in home games vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 3.3, OPPONENT 2.4 - (Rating = 5*).

Sabathia’s Game 1 was shortened by rain last Friday, as he and Verlander faced off, but the game was postponed due to rain after 1½ innings. Sabathia has been great in the postseason as a Yankee, going 5-1 with a 3.15 ERA. But most of that success was in 2009, as last year, the lefty had a 5.63 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in three playoff starts. Sabathia knows he must lead his team to a victory with a struggling A.J. Burnett scheduled to start Game 4 in Detroit. Sabathia and the Yankees have been in many of these “basically must wins”, and will need their power hitter, Mark Teixeira, to improve on his career .221 hitting at Comerica Park. He is 7-for-41 (.171 BA) at Detroit in a Yankees uniform.

The dominant Verlander has been decent against the Yanks in his career, going 4-3 with a 3.97 ERA in 10 career starts. He’s been much better in his past six outings against the Bombers, carting a 2.63 ERA and 40 K in 37.2 innings. Luckily for Verlander, Detroit has been super-hot at home, winning 16 of its past 20 contests in front of their home crowd. A big part of the most recent home success has been first baseman Miguel Cabrera, who is batting .577 (15-for-26) with four homers and seven RBI over his past six home games. If Cabrera can keep his hot bat going and Verlander pitches as he’s done all year as the lock for AL Cy Young, the Tigers will have no problem getting a leg up on this series.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/02/11 5-*1-*0 83.33% +*2505 Detail

10/01/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*1000 Detail

Totals 8-*2-*0 80.00% +3505

Monday, October 3

Game Score Status Pick Amount

NY Yankees - 8:35 PM ET Detroit -118 500

Detroit - Over 7 500

[StarDust Bum]

Milwaukee Brewers Take 2-0 Lead Over Arizona Diamondbacks

The last time the Milwaukee Brewers were on the cusp of winning a playoff series, Ronald Reagan’s presidency had not even hit the halfway mark of its first term, and the Brew Crew was a member of the American League.

Indeed, a long time has passed since October of 1982, but the Brewers have once again arrived at the precipice. Milwaukee can win a postseason series for the first time in 29 years Tuesday night in NLDS Game 3 at Chase Field in Phoenix against the host Diamondbacks.

And if the Brewers can’t wrap things up in Game 3, they’ll have two more chances, including a Game 5 back at Miller Park if necessary, to do so.

First pitch Tuesday is scheduled for 9:37 p.m. (ET), with TV coverage provided by TBS. Milwaukee’s Shaun Marcum has been installed as a slight -115 betting favorite at most Las Vegas shops, with Arizona counterpart Josh Collmenter priced at even money. A more-aggressive position with Marcum laying an extra digit on the run line will fetch a +145 price, while Collmenter is listed at -165 on the run line. The early betting total on the game were nine runs.

Indeed, only once since the old Braves won the World Series in 1957 have Milwaukee baseball fans savored a postseason series win. They haven’t had many chances, which is why 1982 remains such a special memory in Brew Town.

Names such as Robin Yount, Cecil Copper, Gorman Thomas, Jim Gantner, Ben Oglivie, Pete Vuckovich, and Moose Haas became part of Milwaukee baseball lore after the Brewers rallied from a 2-0 deficit in that year’s ALCS to beat the Angels in five games, Cooper’s clutch two-run single in the seventh inning off Halo reliever Luis Sanchez sending Milwaukee into the World Series against the Cardinals.

And the Brewers haven’t won a postseason series since, although they were on the brink in that year’s Fall Classic vs. the Redbirds, failing to close the deal after taking a 3-2 lead back to Busch Stadium for the final two games of the series.

Milwaukee’s only previous playoff appearance since the move to the National League in 1998 came three years ago, when the Phillies won 3-1 over the Brew Crew in the NLDS.

Keying the Brewers’ upward thrust over the weekend was an offense that finally broke through against Arizona pitching aces Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson. Prince Fielder’s clutch 2-run homer in the seventh inning of Game 1 sent the Brewers flying to a 4-1 win on Saturday before the batting order really erupted against Hudson and the D-Backs bullpen in Game 2, powering Milwaukee to an emphatic 9-4 triumph and commanding 2-0 series lead.

The work at the plate by the Brewers has been superior to their regular-season efforts against the Arizona staff, which held Milwaukee hitters to a modest .245 batting average. Over the weekend, however, the Brewers batted .303, with especially-productive showings from OF Ryan Braun (6-for-8, 3 RBIs) and the aforementioned Fielder, who was somewhat muted in regular-season games vs. the D-Backs (.222 BA, 1 HR, 11 Ks) but is batting .375 with three ribbies, and the big Saturday homer off Kennedy, in the series to date.

With their two staff aces already having lost at Miller Park, it’s desperation time for Kirk Gibson’s squad, which has to count upon Collmenter and his tomahawk delivery to get Arizona back into the series on Tuesday night.

A pleasant surprise as a rookie this season when winning an unexpected 10 games, Collmenter was extremely sharp in two outings vs. the Brewers in July, pitching 14 innings of shutout ball while allowing only 6 hits and striking out 10. Included was a 3-0 win by the Central Michigan alum over Milwaukee in Phoenix on July 18.

Meanwhile, Marcum enters Game 3 having struggled the last couple of weeks of the regular season, allowing five runs or more in three of his final four starts while posting a hefty 6.66 ERA in those outings. Marcum was also hit hard in his only start of the season vs. the D-Backs, surrendering four runs and seven hits in six innings of work back on the Fourth of July at Miller Park in an eventual 8-6 Arizona win.