The Bum's NLDS & ALDS Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Phillies At Cardinals MLB Playoff Betting Preview

Scoring first is usually a very good thing in baseball, or just about any sport for that matter. But it hasn't worked out for either the Philadelphia Phillies or St. Louis Cardinals in the first two games of their NLDS.

The Phils and Cards head west to St. Louis for Games 3 and 4 knotted a win apiece. Both teams failed to protect 3-0 first-inning leads in the City of Brotherly Love over the weekend, St. Louis watching that advantage evaporate in an 11-6 Game 1 loss while Philadelphia saw the same edge slip away in a 5-4 Game 2 defeat.

Action resumes Tuesday at 5:07 p.m. (ET) at Busch Stadium. TBS will provide the telecast that features a matchup of southpaws, Cole Hamels (18-13, 2.79) for the Phillies and Jaime Garcia (19-13, 3.56) for the Redbirds.

The MLB odds sent Philadelphia out on a -141 line with seven runs for the Game 3 total.

That the Phillies battled back from the early 3-0 hole on Saturday behind ace Roy Halladay was one thing. Seeing the Cards overcome an eventual 4-0 deficit against Cliff Lee on Sunday was quite another, and the Game 2 win should give St. Louis the momentum in front of the home fans.

The Cardinals are going to need it. Busch Stadium wasn't all that favorable for the boys in the birds-on-bat jerseys. Tony La Russa's lads were 45-36 on their home diamond this season, sixth best in the National League but nothing to really crow about. The Phillies were the best road club in the big leagues, meanwhile, winning 50 of their 81 games away from Citizens Bank Park.

If there was one statistical weakness the Phils had during the regular season, it was facing left-handers. Philadelphia went level against lefties, 24-24, and that might play well alongside the Cardinals' 11-4 mark at home in Garcia's 15 starts. The 25-year-old hurler posted a 2.55 ERA at Busch, more than two runs lower than out on the road, and served up just six long balls in 99 innings.

Garcia didn't seem to care where he pitched against the Phils this season, helping the Cardinals to a 2-0 record in his two outings. He allowed just one unearned run in eight innings at Busch in mid-May, and went seven frames in Philly a little more than two weeks ago, surrendering just a single run in that appearance.

Philadelphia lost four of Hamels' last five starts, three of those on the road and the other at home to these Cardinals in his only appearance against them this campaign. He's actually pitched pretty well vs. St. Louis the past few seasons, but doesn't have a win on his personal ledger to show for the efforts.

The playoff experience edge definitely goes to Hamels who will be making his 13th postseason start and Garcia on the October stage for the very first time. Hamels allowed just nine hits while walking one and striking out 17 in his 15 innings of playoff pitching last year.

Matt Holliday is officially listed as doubtful for Tuesday's game, the slugger still nursing a hand injury. He did pinch hit in Game 1, striking out to end the game, and could be playing that role off the bench in Game 3.

Jerry Meals, working his seventh postseason series and sixth LDS, has the plate for this one. The last two times he's worked a Phillies playoff game, Charlie Manuel's crew came out on top.

No worries about the weather for this game. Clear skies, temps in the mid-70s at game time and a light southeast breeze should make for an excellent night for the crowd.

The teams will be right back in action on Wednesday for Game 4. Neither manager has officially named his starter, but it's expected to be Roy Oswalt for Philadelphia against St. Louis' Edwin Jackson.

[StarDust Bum]

Tampa Bay Rays Down 2-1 To Texas Rangers

It's do or die time for the Tampa Bay Rays, and they'll put their season on the line Tuesday afternoon at Tropicana Field against the Texas Rangers in Game 4 of the American League Divisional Series. The first pitch from the Trop is set for 2:07 p.m. (ET), with live television coverage coming on TBS.

Tampa Bay was looking good on Monday in Game 3 until allowing the Rangers to explode for four runs in the seventh inning. The bullpen was a major culprit, as Brandon Gomes walked two batters on just nine pitches, giving way to J.P. Howell, who gave up a two-run single to blow the game open to Josh Hamilton.

Now, manager Joe Maddon and company are down to their last hope, as they trail 2-1 in this series.

It was his two most veteran pitchers, David Price and James Shields that couldn't get the job done in the two losses in this series. In the Game 1 win, rookie Matt Moore picked up the win. Now, Maddon hopes that another youngster, Jeremy Hellickson can knot this series at two games apiece and bring it back to Arlington for Game 5.

At just 24 years old, this is clearly the biggest start that Hellickson has ever made. He went 13-10 in the regular season with a 2.95 ERA.

Hellickson has some problem with walks, as he allowed 72 free passes in his 29 starts, and he only had 117 strikeouts to offset them.

However, if you look at the way that Hellickson pitched down the stretch, it's amazing that Maddon waited until Game 4 to deploy him. He hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in a start since August 13, and in that stretch, he faced the New York Yankees twice, the Boston Red Sox twice, and these Rangers.

In that start against Texas, Hellickson allowed just two runs on six hits in six innings, but he was given the loss in a 2-0 defeat.

Matt Harrison led the Rangers to five straight wins to end the regular season, and he'll take the mound for the second time in this series on Tuesday. The southpaw allowed a run in 2/3-inning in the 9-0 loss in Game 1, but it would have been his regular day to throw some pitches on the side, so it shouldn't be a hamper on him for this outing.

Against Tampa Bay in his career, Harrison has only made one start, but he has appeared in four games. The southpaw has allowed just two runs in 14 innings.

The Rangers have now won four straight postseason games here at Tropicana Field over the course of the last two postseasons. They also went 3-3 in the regular season at Tampa Bay.

The Rays opened up as minus 120 favorites on the on the Don Best odds screen. The total has been set at eight, with both the 'over' and 'under' lined at -110.

If there is a Game 5, it will be back in Arlington on Thursday. James Shields is currently scheduled to pitch for the Rays, while the Rangers will almost certainly turn the ball over to Game 1 starter, CJ Wilson.

[StarDust Bum]

Preview: Brewers (96-66) at Diamondbacks (94-68)


Game: 3
Venue: Miller Park
Date: October 04, 2011 9:37 PM EDT

PHOENIX (AP) - Down in the standings or down to their last out, the Arizona Diamondbacks found a way to rally all season, riding their comebacks into the playoffs.

After two lackluster games in Milwaukee, the Diamondbacks need another big comeback or it's going to be a short return to the postseason.

Trailing the bashing-and-bunting Brewers 2-0 in the NL division series, Arizona returns home for Game 3 on Tuesday night, sending out rookie right-hander Josh Collmenter to face Milwaukee righty Shaun Marcum in what should be a raucous atmosphere at Chase Field.

``I think it's good that we came from behind all year,' Diamondbacks third baseman Ryan Roberts said Monday. ``There's no panic mode here.'

There at least has to be some concern.

Arizona put up a monster May after falling behind by 6 1/2 games in April and mastered the art of the comeback, rallying to win a major league-high 48 times on its way to the NL West title.

Unable to catch the Brewers in the regular season to secure home-field advantage in the first round, the Diamondbacks opened the NLDS with two games in Milwaukee.

They return to the desert searching for answers after two deflating losses.

Playing like the team to beat in the National League, the Brewers put the Diamondbacks on their heels with a tough-to-beat combination of good pitching, power and some small ball mixed in.

Milwaukee touched up Arizona's two best pitchers to start the series, getting to 21-game winner Ian Kennedy for four runs to win the opener 4-1, and 16-game winner Daniel Hudson for five in a 9-4 victory in Game 2.

The Brewers' brawn of Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun have been brutally effective, combining to go 9 for 16 with two homers, six RBIs and six runs.

Milwaukee also has done the little things right, including Jonathan Lucroy's deftly placed safety squeeze that triggered a five-run sixth inning in the Brew Crew's Game 2 win on Sunday.

It's been just two games, but the Brewers have been monsters, their ``Beast Mode' celebrations against the Diamondbacks putting a scare into the rest of the playoff field.

``We've done a really good job of staying in the moment, embracing the moment and trying to accomplish as much as we can every day,' Braun said.

Next in line to try to stop Milwaukee is Collmenter, the Paul Bunyan-esque right-hander with the over-the-top delivery crafted from his tomahawk-throwing days as a kid.

Buried deep in Arizona's farm system just a year ago, Collmenter had a superb start to his rookie season, starting with an impressive stint as a reliever after an April call-up, followed by a pair of scoreless starts after being added to the rotation. He couldn't keep up that pace as teams figured out how to hit against his quirky delivery, but still finished the regular season 10-10 with a 3.38 ERA.

The Brewers were among the teams unable to figure out Collmenter. He pitched 14 scoreless innings and allowed six hits in consecutive starts against Milwaukee in July - a big reason Diamondbacks manager Kirk Gibson went with the big right-hander for Game 3.

``Against the Brewers, I had a lot of things working,' Collmenter said. ``I was able to establish the fastball, work a changeup in on them and really kept them uncomfortable.'

The Diamondbacks may have the right man on the mound and the advantage of playing at home, but Milwaukee might have the perfect anti-venom in Marcum.

A counterbalance to Zack Greinke's home dominance, Marcum was Milwaukee's big man on the road.

Just 5-4 with a 4.81 ERA in 17 home starts, the 29-year-old went 8-3 with a 2.21 ERA in 16 games away from Miller Park. After a strong start to the season, Marcum had some struggles down the stretch, putting up a 6.66 ERA in his final four outings, but he does have postseason experience and has proven to be resilient.

``He's not lights-out maybe like he was earlier,' Brewers manager Ron Roenicke said. ``He has those stretches where he is, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if he came out and did the same thing he did early in the season and occasionally during the season.'

Marcum will have to do it against a desperate team that doesn't like being told it can't do something.

Playing with a chip-on-their-shoulder mentality all season, the Diamondbacks gave all the naysayers a big shush with all those comeback wins and their first NL West title in four years. Now, with everyone counting them out again, they're looking to do it again.

``We prospered together and we failed together and that's the way it will remain,' Gibson said. ``We understand people are going to have opinions on how things are happening. It's not over yet, so it's almost amusing. We're still competing, we're still in the series.'

If the rest of the season was any indication, a chance is all the Diamondbacks may need.

[StarDust Bum]

Yankee/Tiger game will be posted tomorrow when the lines come out.....
Going with these now:

Tuesday, October 4

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Texas - 2:00 PM ET Tampa Bay -111 500
Tampa Bay -

Philadelphia - 5:00 PM ET St. Louis +125 500
St. Louis - Under 7 500

Milwaukee - 9:30 PM ET Arizona +104 500
Arizona - Over 9 500

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/03/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/02/11 5-*1-*0 83.33% +*2505 Detail
10/01/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*1000 Detail
09/30/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*360 Detail

Totals 11-*3-*0 78.57% +4145


'Yankees/Tigers game no line yet post laters.......good luck !

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday's Playoff Tips

October 4, 2011

Playoff Results - Playoff Winners


NATIONAL LEAGUE DIVISIONAL SERIES


Game 3, Philadelphia at St. Louis - (TBS, 5:05 PM ET)
Teams Pitcher Notes Betting Trends Betcha Didn't Know
(L) Cole Hamels (14-9, 2.75 ERA) Philadelphia is 13-13 on Tuesday
Phillies are 11-6 with Hamels on the road
Phillies are 30-14 against Lefties
Phillies are 13-5 as a road favorite against Lefties, but 3 losses with Hamels
Philadelphia is 8-2 in the playoffs with Hamels

(L) Jamie Garcia (13-7, 3.56 ERA) St. Louis is 16-8 on Tuesday Garcia is 2-1 vs. Phillies
Cards are 11-4 at home behind Garcia
Cardinals are 9-13 at home versus Lefties
St. Louis is 3-10 in last 13 at home vs. Lefties

Free Expert Analysis - Bruce Marshall: The Phillies could be in trouble, having lost home-field edge in the NLDS to St. Louis after Sunday's 5-4 loss. The venue switches back to Busch Stadium for tonight's Game 3, and noted Phillies nemesis Jaime Garcia is on the mound for the Redbirds. All he has done is flummox the Phils lately, allowing only 1 run in 15 innings pitched over two starts this season, with a 1.20 career ERA and .178 OBA against Philly as well. Garcia was also 30 with a 2.,64 ERA in September, while Phils counterpart Cole Hamels was shaky in September, allowing 9 homers in 38 IP. Prices in the +125 range for Cards are too good to pass up in Game Three. Play the Cardinals on Money Line!




Game 3, Milwaukee at Arizona - (TNT, 9:35 PM ET)
Teams Pitcher Notes Betting Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Shaun Marcum (13-7, 3.54 ERA) Brewers are 20-11 as road favorites vs. Righthanders
Milwaukee went 2-2 at Arizona in reg. season
The 'under' went 3-1 in the desert meetings
Brewers are 15-8 on Tuesday
The Brewers have watched the 'under' go 13-2 with Marcum on the road

Josh Collmenter (9-10, 3.59 ERA) Arizona is 51-30 at home
D-Backs are 17-9 on Tuesday
Arizona is 14-8 as a home 'dog this season
D-Backs are 7-3 as a home 'dog off a loss
Arizona is 16-1 last 17 at home vs. Righthanders -- check competition though!

Free Expert Analysis - Vince Akins: There is nothing more than the DiamondBacks would like to do than to send their home fans home with at least one victory this postseason. However, they just don’t have the fire power to do it. Shaun March vs. Josh Collmenter is a decent pitching advantage for Milwaukee and with a better lineup as well, you have to like the Brewers at even money. However, Milwaukee faced Collmenter twice this season and was held scoreless over 14 innings. Consider, the Brewers are 24-5 since May 20, 2010 as a favorite when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $1800.Milwaukee is playing great baseball right now, having won four straight and seven of eight going back to the regular season. The Diamondbacks are 3-11 since July 27, 2010 as a dog vs a team that has won at least their last four games for a net profit of $722 when playing against. Arizona meanwhile dropped their season finale. The Brewers are 17-6 since July 09, 2010 vs a team that has lost at least their last three games for a net profit of $1214.In the last game on Sunday, Arizona won going away, 9-4. Milwaukee led by counts of 2-0 and 4-1 early, never trailing in that game. The Diamondbacks are 11-21 since May 10, 2010 within 20 cents of pickem when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $933 when playing against.Milwaukee 5, Arizona 2





AMERICAN LEAGUE DIVISIONAL SERIES


Game 4, Texas at Tampa Bay - (TBS, 2:05 PM ET)
Teams Pitcher Notes Betting Trends Betcha Didn't Know
(L) Matt Harrison (14-9, 3.43 ERA) TEX is 13-12 on Tuesday
TEX is 26-23 in Day Games
The 'under' has gone 18-11 in Harrison's starts
Texas is 10-5 to the 'under' during the day as a road 'dog

Jeremy Hellickson (13-10, 2.95 ERA) The Rays have won four of last five with Hellickson on the hill
TB just 11-14 on Tuesday
Rays are 35-24 in Day Games
Tampa Bay is 14-6 at home vs. Lefties, 5-2 during the daytime
Tampa is 7-2 L9 as a home favorite durng the daytime

Free Expert Analysis - Micah Roberts: Matt Harrison has been one of the hottest pitchers there is coming into the post-season. He’s won four decisions in his last five starts and the Rangers have won all of his five starts. His no decision was a 3-1 Rangers win where he went 6 innings allowing only one run. The Rangers have also won Harrison’s last five road starts. Jeremy Hellickson has pitched well of late but only has two wins to show for his efforts over his last five. I also like the Rangers in this situation after winning a big Game 3 at Tampa. I could see a major blow out here. Play the Rangers!




Game 4, New York at Detroit - (TBS, 8:35 PM ET)
Teams Pitcher Notes Betting Trends Betcha Didn't Know
A.J. Burnett (11-11, 5.16 ERA) Yankees are 7-14 as a road 'dog vs. righthanders
NYY is 14-9 on Tuesday
Yankees are 8-14 with Burnett at night
The 'under' is 3-1-2 in Burnett's last six starts
Yankees are 4-9 as a road 'dog off a loss

Rick Porcello (14-9), 4.75 ERA DET is 14-10 on TUE
Porcello has watched the 'over' go 17-12 this season
Tigers are 7-1 in L8 with Porcello tossing
DET is 12-1 L13 as a home favorite off a win

Free Expert Analysis - Matt Fargo: Detroit got a big edge when the rainout took place for Game 1 because its rotation stayed the same but New York was forced to make a change and it was not a change it had in mind. The Yankees has originally tagged A.J. Burnett for the bullpen but because of the rotation the way it went after the Friday delay, he has been thrust into the playoff rotation. He was pretty below average for the most part this season and the wheels really came off in the latter half as he posted a 6.85 ERA in 13 starts and one relief appearance after the All-Star break. He was much better at home than on the road as he put up a 6.28 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 14 road starts with only three of those being quality performances. The Tigers got an excellent last month from Rick Porcello and he earned a spot in the playoff rotation. He had an average season as well but his year was mixed with a lot more consistency to go along with a few blowups. He closed the year with five straight quality starts in September and Detroit ended up winning seven of his final eight starts. While he is still young, he is very confident. "I'm ready to go," Porcello said. "I want to show everybody what I can do." The Tigers are 5-1 in his last six starts against winning teams. Take the Detroit Tigers!

[StarDust Bum]

2011 Playoff Results

October 4, 2011

Playoff Results: 2010 - 2009 - 2008

Overall Playoff Results


Home teams are 6-4
Favorites are 6-4
The 'over' is 7-3
American League Divisional Series


New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers
Game Matchup Date/Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 New York (-160) vs. Detroit 9-3 FAVORITE OVER (9.0)
2 New York vs. Detroit (+130) 5-3 UNDERDOG UNDER (9.0)
3 New York vs. Detroit (-123) 5-4 FAVORITE OVER (7.0)
4 New York vs. Detroit Oct. 4
*5 New York vs. Detroit Oct. 6




Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Game Matchup Date/Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Texas vs. Tampa Bay (+160) 9-0 UNDERDOG OVER (8.5)
2 Texas (-118) vs. Tampa Bay 8-6 FAVORITE OVER (8.0)
3 Texas (+106) vs. Tampa Bay 4-3 UNDERDOG UNDER (8.0)
*4 Texas vs. Tampa Bay Oct. 4
*5 Texas vs. Tampa Bay Oct. 6



National League Divisional Series


Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Game Matchup Date/Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Philadelphia (-220) vs. St. Louis 11-6 FAVORITE OVER (7.0)
2 Philadelphia vs. St. Louis (+165) 5-4 UNDERDOG OVER (7.0)
3 Philadelphia vs. St. Louis Oct. 4
*4 Philadelphia vs. St. Louis Oct. 5
*5 Philadelphia vs. St. Louis Oct. 7




Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Game Matchup Date/Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Milwaukee (-125) vs. Arizona 4-1 FAVORITE UNDER (7.5)
2 Milwaukee (-165) vs. Arizona 9-4 FAVORITE OVER (7.0)
3 Milwaukee vs. Arizona Oct. 4
*4 Milwaukee vs. Arizona Oct. 5
*5 Milwaukee vs. Arizona Oct. 7

[StarDust Bum]

Tigers try to end Yankees season on Tuesday

NEW YORK YANKEES

at DETROIT TIGERS


ALDS Game 4 - Detroit leads series 2-1
First pitch: Tuesday, 8:35 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -110, Detroit +100, Total: 9.5

The Yankees find themselves in a difficult situation, facing the Tigers in an elimination Game 4 at Comerica Park. Detroit won a big Game 3 on Monday night, beating New York 5-4 behind their ace Justin Verlander.

The Yanks will send A.J. Burnett (11-11, 5.15 ERA) to the mound in hopes of extending their season. Burnett will try to use the confidence he may have obtained from the success in his past two road starts where he went 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA and struck out 15 batters in 11.1 innings. On the hill for Detroit will be right-hander Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.75 ERA). Porcello was inconsistent throughout the season, but ended strong with five straight quality starts, going 2-1 with a 3.55 ERA in September. Despite having 98 wins this year, night games have oddly been a problem for the Yankees and Burnett. New York is just 54-54 (-18.6 Units) under the lights, including 8-13 in night games with Burnett as the starter. Burnett has always had trouble on the road in his career, and this season he has a 6.30 ERA and 1.64 WHIP outside of Yankee Stadium. The Yankees put themselves in a rough situation with Burnett on the mound in the biggest game of their season, and consequently DETROIT will finish them off on Tuesday night.

This pair of three-star FoxSheets trends also supports the Tigers.

DETROIT is 79-42 (65.3%, +32.7 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season. The average score was DETROIT 5.1, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 3*).

Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (DETROIT) - after having won 2 of their last 3 games, in October games. (42-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.7%, +29.9 units. Rating = 3*).

Burnett has not had much success pitching in the postseason, going 1-2 with a 5.67 ERA in six starts. He lasted just two innings in the 2009 World Series and allowed a whopping six runs. In his last playoff outing in the 2010 ALCS against Texas, Burnett threw six innings and allowed five runs. The righty may not change his luck against Detroit, considering he has a 6.33 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in eight career starts against the Tigers. Look for Detroit to be patient at the plate with the often-erratic Burnett.

The Yankees hope to get some offense from their sluggers Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira who are a horrid 1-for-21 with 7 K combined in the series. Rodriguez has always been criticized for his playoff struggles and batting .167 with no homers and just five RBI in 12 postseason games in the past two seasons won’t help his case.

Porcello hasn’t pitched well at home this year, going 5-5 with a less-than-solid 5.64 ERA and .302 opponents’ BA. However, Porcello has pitched fantastic in his past two outings at Comerica Park against the Yankees, throwing 14 innings and allowing just two runs. Porcello is just 22 years old and a couple shutout innings early would really calm his nerves.

[StarDust Bum]

Brewers try to finish sweep in Arizona

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

at ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS


NLDS Game 3 - Milwaukee leads series 2-0
First pitch: Tuesday, 9:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Milwaukee -115, Arizona +105, Total: 9

With their backs against the wall, the Diamondbacks will turn to a rookie pitcher to keep their season alive when they host Milwaukee for an NLDS Game 3 Tuesday night.

Rookie righthander Josh Collmenter was one of the surprises of the regular season, an unheralded prospect who ended up winning 10 games. Collmenter threw 14 shutout innings over two starts against the Brewers this season, as Milwaukee never seemed to adjust to his funky, over-the-top delivery, going 6-for-46 (.130 BA) with just one walk. He was a little shakier down the stretch, but not as shaky as Brewers Game 3 starter Shaun Marcum, who posted a 6.66 ERA over his final four starts. The Brewers had a losing record on the road (39-42), and Arizona averaged nearly a run more at home than it did away (4.94 to 4.09). It all adds up to make ARIZONA the pick.

The FoxSheets have a four-star trend that sides with the D-backs:

Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (ARIZONA) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season (NL), good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game on the season. (64-31 over the last 5 seasons, 67.4%, +42 units. Rating = 4*).

Collmenter (10-10, 3.38 ERA) posted a 5.50 ERA over his final three starts, but did deliver quality starts in his last two, including seven innings of two-run ball in a win over the Giants to finish the year. He was more successful at home, where he went 9-4 with a 3.30 ERA in 16 appearances (12 starts).

Marcum (13-7, 3.54 ERA) finished the season by getting knocked around by the Pirates, allowing seven runs and 13 base runners over 4.2 innings. He was excellent away from home though, where he went 8-3 with a 2.21 ERA as the Brewers won 10 of his 16 starts. He wasn’t particularly impressive in his two starts against the D-backs, allowing three runs over five innings in Arizona back in May and allowing four runs over six innings at home in July. In two career starts against the Diamondbacks, he has strong 13-to-3 K/BB ratio over those 11 innings.

[StarDust Bum]

Late Afternoon Game:


NY Yankees - 8:30 PM ET Detroit +112 500

Detroit - Over 10 500

[Go Bears!]

I see that right now they have Oswalt and Jackson as listed pitchers. I am not convinced that this is going to be the case, and I will not be around before game time to find out. Have you seen or heard any info on the pitchers for tomorrow?

Thanks!

[StarDust Bum]

Bears..its going to be Oswalt vs. Jackson.....

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday, October 5

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Philadelphia 0 Bot 0 St. Louis +107 500

St. Louis 0 Over 7.5 500

Milwaukee - 9:30 PM ET Milwaukee -106 500

Arizona - Over 9 500

[StarDust Bum]

D-backs try to even NLDS with Milwaukee

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

at ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS


First pitch: Wednesday, 9:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Milwaukee -105, Arizona -105, Total: 7.5

One night after surviving an elimination game behind a rookie pitcher, the D-backs can even things up when they host Milwaukee for Game 4 on Wednesday night.

Arizona beat Brewers starter Randy Wolf twice this year, scoring 10 runs (9 ER) with 23 base runners over 13.1 innings against him. But more importantly than that, Milwaukee continues to be borderline helpless on the road. Its 39-43 mark (-6.1 Units) in away games is by far the worst among playoff teams, and the Brewers have no business being an even bet on the road with their No. 4 starter on the mound against a playoff team. The FoxSheets have a three-star trend that also points towards ARIZONA as the pick:

Play Against - Road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (MILWAUKEE) - revenging a loss where the team scored 1 run or less, in a game involving two good teams (54% to 62%). (33-14 over the last 5 seasons, 70.2%, +22.4 units. Rating = 3*).

Arizona starter Joe Saunders (12-13, 3.69 ERA) was actually shakier at home this year, going 3-6 with a 4.42 ERA at Chase Field. The soft-tossing southpaw allowed five runs over six innings to the Dodgers at home in his last start of the year, but had allowed just one earned run over 14 innings in his previous two home starts combined. Saunders has some postseason experience, with the Angels in 2008 and ’09. He allowed nine runs and 29 base runners over 15 innings, but those starts all came on the road against the Yankees (twice) and Red Sox.

He faced the Brewers just once this year, at home, and held them to two runs over seven innings. Seeing Saunders is unlikely to slow down the red-hot Ryan Braun. He’s 6-for-11 with three extra-base hits so far in the NLDS, and he has two home runs in six career plate appearances against Saunders.

Wolf (13-10, 3.69 ERA) will likely have his work cut out for him. He gave up 10 runs and 19 hits over 11.2 innings to the likes of the Cubs and Pirates in his last two starts of the year. The Brewers offense continues to struggle outside of Miller Park (4.06 runs/game away, as opposed to 4.84 runs/game at home).

Wolf delivered quality starts in five of his last seven road outings this year, and in 20 career starts against the D-Backs he’s 10-5 with a 4.64 ERA. Since joining the Brewers prior to last season, he has a 5.68 ERA over 25.1 innings against Arizona. He made two postseason starts in his career, both with the Dodgers in 2009, and didn’t fare well (9 innings, 5 runs, 18 base runners allowed).

[StarDust Bum]

NY Yankees, Detroit Tigers ALDS Game 5 Preview

Robinson Cano leads the Bronx Bombers with 8 RBI in the series.
Doug Fister is probably in the last place he thought he'd be just a few short months ago. But then, Joe Girardi probably couldn't have imagined a few weeks ago having to turn to AJ Burnett in an elimination game during the playoffs.

Such are the strange twists and turns that baseball takes, especially during the postseason. Burnett delivered in ALDS Game 4 to help knot the series between the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees, and force a decisive fifth game Thursday. Fister gets the call for Jim Leyland's Tigers in the 8:00 p.m. (ET) start from Yankee Stadium in New York. Girardi will send Ivan Nova to the mound in a strange rematch of Game 1 relievers.

The Yankees opened in the 155-160 chalk range, but that price is down to -150 and even a penny or two lower now. The Don Best odds screen is showing nine for Thursday's total.

Burnett got a lot of kudos for his effort Tuesday evening in Game 4, working into the sixth and allowing Detroit's only run in a 10-1 Yankees rout. But he also got a lot of help from Curtis Granderson just to survive a very shaky first inning. Burnett walked three to fill the sacks, then watched as Granderson made the first of two big grabs off the bat of Tigers right-fielder Don Kelly.

Granderson got caught misplaying the ball, but made up for the gaffe with a leaping catch going back in center. The play turned the whole game around.

Another diving catch by Granderson going into left-center stopped a would-be Detroit rally in the sixth. New York's lineup exploded for six runs in the eighth off Tigers relievers to turn the contest into a laugher, all while Yanks relievers were posting 3 1/3-innings of hitless baseball with six strikeouts.

Fister (13-18, 3.01) and Nova (19-8, 3.66) picked things up in the completion of Game 1 this past Saturday after rain halted things early in the proceedings the night before. The two kept the game 1-1 until the Yankees lineup finally wore Fister down in the fifth and sixth innings, scoring six times against him over 4 2/3 innings.

Nova put in 6 1/3-innings of work that evening, allowing two Detroit runs and striking out five in the eventual 9-3 New York win. Robinson Cano's grand slam in the sixth delivered the knockout punch.

The slam came off Tigers reliever Al Albuquerque who was again ineffective when called upon in Game 4. Detroit's 'pen has been volatile the entire series, allowing 11 earned runs in 9 1/3 frames.

Yankees relievers have countered with a 1.74 ERA over 10 1/3 innings, striking out 13 along the way.

Who might enter in relief if either or both starters get into early trouble remains to be seen. Max Scherzer, who started Game 2 for the Tigers on Sunday, could be seen if Fister can't hack it. Could there be a Justin Verlander sighting as well? He burned through 120 pitches on Monday in Game 3, two days after 25 tosses at the start of Game 1. But given the performance of his bullpen so far, Leyland could be at least tempted to call on his ace one more time.

Girardi is definitely in better shape with his bullpen, and closer Mariano Rivera is a candidate to be called upon in the eighth if needed. Baseball's all-time saves leader has made just one appearance so far, that at the very end of the completion of Game 1 last Saturday. Boone Logan, Cory Wade, David Robertson and Rafael Soriano make for a nice long bridge for Girardi to get to Rivera.

Ted Barrett is in line for the plate if the normal rotation umpire is followed. Crew chief Gerry Davis, who worked Game 3, could opt to work the plate himself. An 18-year veteran in his 12th postseason series, Barrett was 17-13-2 to the 'over' during the regular season, and worked three Yankees games, including Nova's final start on Sept. 25 (NY lost, 'over'). He didn't call a Tigers game in 2011.

After a soggy weekend in New York for Games 1 and 2, it should be a beautiful night for baseball at Yankee Stadium for Game 5. Clear skies and a crisp 60ºF at first pitch with a light north breeze (3B to 1B) is expected.