The Bum's NFL Week # 3 Best Bets 9/25-9/26 !

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NFL | NY GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA
Play Against - Home teams (PHILADELPHIA) off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses
97-51 since 1997. ( 65.5% | 40.9 units )
0-3 this year. ( 0.0% | -3.3 units )
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NFL | SAN FRANCISCO at CINCINNATI
Play Against - Home teams with a money line of +130 to -150 (CINCINNATI) off a road loss, team that had a losing record last season
48-22 since 1997. ( 68.6% | 0.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )
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NFL | JACKSONVILLE at CAROLINA
Play Over - Road teams vs. the 1rst half total after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games
34-11 over the last 5 seasons. ( 75.6% | 21.9 units )

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TREND SHEET
SEPTEMBER 25, 1:00 PM
NY GIANTS vs. PHILADELPHIA
•NY Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road

•NY Giants are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing Philadelphia

•Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

•Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing at home against NY Giants




SEPTEMBER 25, 1:00 PM
DENVER vs. TENNESSEE
•Denver is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games

•Denver is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games

•The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tennessee's last 12 games at home

•Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver



SEPTEMBER 25, 1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. NEW ORLEANS
•Houston is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road

•The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games on the road

•New Orleans is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games

•New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games



SEPTEMBER 25, 1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
•Detroit is 3-7-2 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Minnesota

•Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

•The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games at home

•Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit



SEPTEMBER 25, 1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. CINCINNATI
•San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati

•San Francisco is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Cincinnati

•Cincinnati is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing San Francisco

•Cincinnati is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home



SEPTEMBER 25, 1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. CAROLINA
•Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

•Jacksonville is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games on the road

•The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Carolina's last 13 games at home

•Carolina is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games



SEPTEMBER 25, 1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. CLEVELAND
•Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

•Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games

•Cleveland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

•The total has gone OVER in 9 of Cleveland's last 13 games



SEPTEMBER 25, 1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. BUFFALO
•New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road

•New England is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Buffalo

•Buffalo is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing New England

•Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England



SEPTEMBER 25, 4:05 PM
BALTIMORE vs. ST. LOUIS
•The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing St. Louis

•Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road

•St. Louis is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

•St. Louis is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games



SEPTEMBER 25, 4:05 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. SAN DIEGO
•Kansas City is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road

•Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

•San Diego is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

•The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games at home



SEPTEMBER 25, 4:05 PM
NY JETS vs. OAKLAND
•The total has gone OVER in 11 of the NY Jets last 12 games on the road

•NY Jets are 13-4 SU in their last 17 games on the road

•Oakland is 8-3 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against NY Jets

•The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games



SEPTEMBER 25, 4:15 PM
ARIZONA vs. SEATTLE
•The total has gone OVER in 10 of Arizona's last 14 games when playing Seattle

•Arizona is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road

•The total has gone OVER in 11 of Seattle's last 13 games

•Seattle is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games



SEPTEMBER 25, 4:15 PM
GREEN BAY vs. CHICAGO
•Green Bay is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Chicago

•Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

•Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay

•The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing at home against Green Bay



SEPTEMBER 25, 4:15 PM
ATLANTA vs. TAMPA BAY
•Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay

•The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay

•Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

•The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing Atlanta



SEPTEMBER 25, 8:20 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. INDIANAPOLIS
•Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis

•The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games on the road

•Indianapolis is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games when playing Pittsburgh

•Indianapolis is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Pittsburgh



SEPTEMBER 26, 8:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. DALLAS
•The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games on the road

•The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Dallas

•The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games at home

•Dallas is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
09/19/11 1-*0-*1 100.00% +*500 Detail
09/18/11 17-*12-*1 58.62% +*1900 Detail
09/12/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
09/11/11 8-*18-*0 30.77% -*5900 Detail
09/08/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
Totals 28-*34-*2 45.16% -*4700

Sunday, September 25

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Jacksonville - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +3.5 500
Carolina - Under 42.5 500

Denver - 1:00 PM ET (Tennessee -7 500 Early Blowout )
Tennessee - Under 43.5 500

Houston - 1:00 PM ET New Orleans -3.5 500
New Orleans - Over 51.5 500

Detroit - 1:00 PM ET (Minnesota +3 500 Shocker of the Day)
Minnesota - Over 44.5 500

N.Y. Giants - 1:00 PM ET Philadelphia -9 500
Philadelphia - Under 46.5 500

New England - 1:00 PM ET New England -7 500
Buffalo - Under 54.5 500

Miami - 1:00 PM ET Miami -1 500
Cleveland - Over 42.5 500

San Francisco - 1:00 PM ET (San Francisco +1.5 500 DOG OF THE DAY)
Cincinnati - Over 38.5 500

N.Y. Jets - 4:05 PM ET N.Y. Jets -3 500 ( HOT DOG SPECIAL OF THE DAY )
Oakland - Over 41 500

Baltimore - 4:05 PM ET Baltimore -5 500
St. Louis - Over 41.5 500

Kansas City - 4:05 PM ET Kansas City +14 500
San Diego - Under 44.5 500

Atlanta - 4:15 PM ET Atlanta +1 500
Tampa Bay - Under 46 500

Green Bay - 4:15 PM ET Green Bay -4 500
Chicago - Under 44.5 500 (BLACK AND BLUE SPECIAL)

Arizona - 4:15 PM ET Seattle +3 500 ( AFTERNOON DOG )
Seattle - Over 43 500

Pittsburgh - 8:20 PM ET Pittsburgh -10.5 500
Indianapolis - Over 39.5 500

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Week 3 Sunday NFL Betting Update

Are the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions for real, and will they both remain unbeaten and improve to 3-0 after Sunday’s NFL action? Those are just a couple of key questions bettors are looking to answer before laying down their money on Week 3 games.

So far, the Bills have seen the line move in their favor, down from the opener of +9 to +7 at most sportsbooks in their matchup with AFC East favorite New England, according to the Don Best odds screen.

Many experts believe this is already a key point of the season, when the contenders start separating themselves from the pretenders. A limited training camp following the lockout has favored offenses so far, as the ‘over’ cashed in 11 of 16 games last week and is 23-8-1 overall through the first two games. Defenses need to start making more stops, otherwise teams like the Lions and their prolific passing game will continue to roll through opponents.

The Lions will be looking to break a 13-game losing streak at the Metrodome when they visit the Minnesota Vikings, and they are favored on the road against the Vikings for the first time in 30 years. However, the public has bet the line down from the opener of -4 to -3 ½ as Minnesota tries to avoid their first 0-3 start in nine years. Detroit has not started 3-0 since 1980.

The Philadelphia Eagles (1-1) have been another popular team with the public, and they are expected to have starting quarterback Michael Vick under center after he went through Friday’s walk-through. Vick suffered a concussion on Sunday night at Atlanta and was forced to leave the game in the second half of Philadelphia’s 35-31 loss.

The Eagles opened as 9-point favorites but have also been bet down to -8 and -8 ½ at some places. Vick is still listed as questionable on the injury report, and Philly trainer Rick Burkholder will continue to monitor his progress heading into Sunday’s game.

Other key injuries to keep an eye on include Arizona Cardinals running back Beanie Wells, who hurt his hamstring in practice on Thursday. Wells is considered a game-time decision when his Cardinals (1-1) travel to Seattle to face the Seahawks as 3 ½-point favorites.

Arizona opened at -3 against a Seattle team that ranks dead last in the NFL offensively with just 191.5 yards per game.

Houston Texans RB Arian Foster was limited in practice on Thursday and Friday due to a lingering hamstring injury, which means Ben Tate will likely get his first career start. The Texans (2-0) visit the New Orleans Saints (1-1), who opened as 5 ½-point favorites but have seen the line shrink as low as 3 ½.

Neither St. Louis Rams RB Steven Jackson (quad) nor Denver Broncos RB Knowshon Moreno (hamstring) played last week for their respective teams, and they both remain very questionable to return this week. The Rams (0-2) host the Baltimore Ravens (1-1) while the Broncos (1-1) visit the Tennessee Titans (1-1).

The Ravens (-4) and Titans (-7) have each seen betting in their favor.

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Gridiron Trends - Week 3

September 24, 2011

NFL ATS PLAY ON TREND:

The Bills are 11-0 ATS (9.9 ppg) since November 1999 after a win by three points or less during which they controlled the battle of posession.


NFL ATS PLAY AGAINST TREND:

The Broncos are 0-13 ATS (-16.2 ppg) since November 12, 2006 following a game which they led at half and allowed more points than expected.

NFL OU TREND OF THE WEEK:

The Giants are 0-13-1 OU (-7.8 ppg) since November 01, 1992 as a road 7+ dog after a straight up win.

NFL BIBLE TREND OF THE WEEK:

The Falcons are 0-11 ATS (-12.7 ppg) since September 18th 1994 over the first five weeks of the season when they are off a game in which they scored at least 28 points and allowed at least 10.

NCAA ATS PLAY ON TREND:

Ohio is 10-0 ATS (10.6 ppg) since October 2006 when they scored between 35 and 45 points last game and aren’t more than a 30 points favorite.

NCAA ATS PLAY AGAINST TREND:

Eastern Michigan is 0-12 ATS (-15.0 ppg) since 2006 when facing a team they scored between six and 13 points against last meeting.

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Week 3 Line Moves

September 24, 2011

Who would have ever thought that the NFL’s feature game of Week 3 would be the mighty New England Patriots visiting the upstart Buffalo Bills. If you had looked at the M Resort’s Week 3 odds a few months ago, picking this game with the Patriots being nine-point favorites wouldn’t have entered anyone’s mind as being the only game this week to match two undefeated teams against each other.
Despite the Bills piling up 79 points in the first two games, the market price when most Las Vegas sports books opened the game Monday was still Patriots -9, the same line it was before we knew what the Bills had in store offensively for the 2011 season. The Patriots are every bit as good -- maybe better -- than we anticipated, so why -9?

It didn’t take long for sharp money to answer those questions with cash, because they took the Bills at +9, +8 ½,+8, and +7 ½. Despite all the straight bets on Buffalo, most books will still be rooting the Bills in this one because the public loves New England.

“We’ve got a lot of action on the Bills,” said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne, “and you would think that we would be needing the Patriots, but the public money is so overwhelming on the parlays and teasers with the Patriots that I will probably be rooting for the sharp side to win for the book’s best interest.“

The Patriots are one of many very popular public sides this week. In fact, this is the weighted public opinion week of the three weeks. The public has seen two games from each team and feel they have a good read on who will do well, and who won’t, and have bet accordingly.

There are 10 games this week where the ticket counts on a certain side are weighted at a 7-to-3 ratio or higher. In each of the first two weeks of NFL action, there were 10 games combined that had that kind of weight.

Needless to say, if seven or eight of those games come in, it’s going to be a rough day for the books. If the sports books can split those games, they’ll do well.

Here’s a look at the most weighted public games:

The top two teams that link almost everyone’s parlays are the Packers (-4) at Chicago and the Ravens (-4) at St. Louis, two teams that let the public down considerably last week by not covering.

In addition to the Patriots, they also love the Saints laying four points at home against the Texans, the Lions laying three at Minnesota, The Chargers laying two touchdowns at home to Kansas City, the Jets (-3) at Oakland and the Cardinals (-3 ½) at Seattle.

The Steelers (-10 ½) are also popular choices at Indianapolis along with Washington (+6) at Dallas in the two isolated games under the lights.

It’s not surprising that of the 10 games, nine of them are favorites. The one underdog finding support is the Redskins. Between having Tony Romo’s ribs banged up and his two starting wide receivers being very ‘questionable’ or ‘out,’ the public has found all the reason in the world to back the 2-0 Redskins led by the appearance of a vastly improved Rex Grossman at quarterback.

Other than the New England game, there hasn’t been too much movement on the week. Most sports books react only to large straight bets when moving the line. In this week’s case, with so many books getting one-sided action, it could be that they are waiting for the risk to mount and force the book to move and get an extra half-point on a game by kickoff.

The games the sharps have shown their hand on already are the Bills, Raiders, Seahawks and Colts.

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Total Talk - Week 3

September 24, 2011


Week 2 Recap

If you’re a gambler that likes to be ‘over’ tickets then you’ve been doing well this NFL season. The ‘over’ went 10-5-1 (67%) in Week 2 and that was after the sportsbooks made healthy adjustments from the opening weekend to offset the action from the betting public. Guess what? It didn’t matter and once again, the books have made even more tweaks, perhaps too many for Week 3.

We had six totals in Week 1 close at 39 points or less and that number was split in half last weekend to three. For Week 3, it appears that the Steelers-Colts (39.5) matchup could fit in this situation, which is the only one. Then again, that battle will be the primetime affair on Sunday and all total players should be aware that every game under the lights has gone ‘over’ this season.

After two weeks of action, the ‘over’ has gone 21-8-3 (72%) on the season.

What’s the reason behind the shootouts?

VegasInsider.com handicapper Lee Kostroski and his ASA stable of experts are still trying to answer that question. He said, “While we can't say for sure it may have to do with the lockout and the shorter prep time along with conditioning for the players and coaches. Could it be the rule changes regarding defensive back and less hitting in practices?”

“ One thing for sure is that passing, league wide, is certainly up this year as teams are averaging 246.4 yards per game passing in the first two weeks compared to the 2010 average of 221.3 YPG. On average the league is completing a combined 27.2 more passes per week this season compared to 2010.”

“It's been said the NFL is turning into a pass-first league and the numbers from the first two weeks certainly support that thinking. In 2010 the percentage of pass plays called by offensive coordinators was 57% per game. This year that number has trended up to 59%. On average teams are running 63 plays per game thus far this season which is the exact average of 2010. It's interesting to note that 12 teams are averaging over 6.0 yards per play this season compared to only three teams finishing above that number last season. “

“Explosive plays are clearly contributing to the higher scoring games too as teams are converting points inside the Red Zone just 48% of the time this season compared to 53% all of last season.”

Bad Beats

Whether you win or you lose, you should always grade the outcomes, especially if you’re betting every football weekend. Watching the DirecTV shortcuts on Monday and Tuesday is a great way to handicap, but even looking at a box score will tell you so much more than the final.

Gamblers, particularly ‘under’ bettors who took the following games witnessed some crazy finishes and tough losses.

Oakland-Buffalo: Scoreless after 15 minutes, 73 the rest of the way, including 35 in the fourth quarter.

Green Bay-Carolina: A conservative 13-7 score at half turns out to be a 30-23 final. And the Packers kicked three field goals in one quarter.

Cleveland-Indianapolis: Probably the toughest one to swallow if you had the ‘under’ here. Seventeen points in the last four minutes. Ouch!

Dallas-San Francisco: Another 0-0 score after the first quarter. Still, 30 points in the second help the cause.

San Diego-New England and Philadelphia-Atlanta: Playing the ‘under’ on these games is always tough due to the prolific attacks involved and bettors witnessed that. The Pats and Bolts combined for 29 in the fourth, while the Battle of the Birds saw a 42-spot posted.

Total players chasing their bets at the break watched the ‘over’ go 10-6 in the second-half of Week 2.

Divisional Trends

New England at Buffalo: If you’re looking to fade an inflated number, then this is the game for you. The total opened at 51, and has spiked to 54 at some shops. That’s ridiculous. Even when the Patriots were blasting people during their undefeated season that fell short in the Super Bowl, the totals would rarely be over 50 points. The Bills have come out firing with 41 and 38 in their first two weeks, but will that last? Does Buffalo really think it can beat New England in a shootout? Considering the Bills have posted 3, 10, 0, 10 and 6 in their last five home encounters against the Pats, maybe a high-scoring outcome could help their chances.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia: Three of the last four in this series has gone ‘over’ the number, but make a note that the Giants have posted 17 points in each of their last two trips to Philadelphia. And despite putting up 28 last Monday, the defense added seven points. However, the Rams scored four times (3 FGs) and definitely left points off the board.

Detroit at Minnesota: The Lions and Vikings have watched the ‘under’ cash in six straight meetings. During that span, Detroit has cracked 20 points once. Vikings’ offense looks lethargic, which has hurt a defense (24 PPG) that was once dominant.

Kansas City at San Diego: The Chiefs have scored 10 total points in two games, yet the ‘over’ has cashed in each affair. That’s because your defense has allowed 89 points. Number started high (45) but is slowly creeping down. The ‘under’ went 2-0 between the pair in 2010.

Arizona at Seattle: For the past three seasons, the ‘over/under’ has gone 1-1 in this head-to-head series. Does that mean you pass and do the opposite of the second encounter? Make a note that Seattle has score no points in the first half through two games.

Green Bay at Chicago: Seven straight ‘under’ tickets in this series, yet we have a total hovering around 45 points.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay: Both battles went ‘over’ last year, which snapped a four-game ‘under’ run in the series. Bucs have watched both of their games go ‘over’ this season.

Washington at Dallas: The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 in the last four meetings, including a split last season. Last year, the Cowboys saw all eight of their home games go ‘over’ the number, which included a 33-30 shootout against the ‘Skins.

Primetime Cash

As mentioned above, every game played under the lights this season has gone ‘over’ the number, which is surprising since these contests are always shaded higher due to the late push from the betting public. Some bettors may’ve had the Giants-Rams ‘over/under’ at 44 last Monday, while others could’ve shopped for the hook in either direction and pulled the quick middle between 43 ½ and 44 ½ points.

This week, we have two more games and something tells us that the streak could end here.

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis: The Steelers’ offense hasn’t looked sharp in terms of points but they are putting up the yards. Quarterback Kerry Collins will get better with Indy as the season progresses but it’s hard to see him mustering up anything special against Pitt’s defense on SNF.

Washington at Dallas: (See above)

Fearless Predictions

Perhaps we should’ve waited another week to hop back on the gridiron. We put up a 1-3 spot last Sunday, losing all three of our straight plays and barely cashing the teaser. With all bets based on one-unit, the deficit stands at minus $230.

Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Houston-New Orleans 52

Best Under: San Francisco-Cincinnati 40.5

Best Team Total: Rams Over 19.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over Houston-New Orleans 43
Over Baltimore-St. Louis 33
Under San Francisco-Cincinnati 49.5

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Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest Picks

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Leroy's College Challenge
Week 3 Consensus Picks

1) Philadelphia (-6.5) vs. New York Giants
2) Oakland (+3.5) vs. New York Jets
3) Miami (+2.5) at Cleveland
4) Minnesota (+3.5) vs. Detroit
5) Baltimore (-4) at St. Louis



Weekly and Overall Consensus Records
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 2-3 2-3 40%
2 1-2-2 3-5-2 38%
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

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Dallas Cowboys Host Redskins On Monday Night Football

Friday, September 23, 2011

It's a good thing the Dallas Cowboys have a group health insurance plan. One look at the list of walking wounded on the Cowboys roster, and you begin to wonder if some of the few healthy players might have to go both ways when they host the Washington Redskins on Monday night.

Let me rephrase that; I don't want to get this preview rolling by adding to all of the Troy Aikman rumors.

Dallas probably won't employ any two-way players in ESPN's next edition of Monday Night Football (8:30 p.m. ET). But Jason Garrett and the Cowboys are going to at least see their depth chart on the offensive side of the ball tested against Mike Shanahan's club in the key NFC East matchup between longtime rivals. Washington has the very early hold on the division lead and a Dallas win would guarantee that all four teams go into Week four just a game apart.

Getting the win, despite being at home and favored by 5-6½ points depending where you place your NFL wagers, isn't going to be easy for the Cowboys. A lot of shops have yet to put the game on the board due to the Dallas injuries.

Tight end Jason Witten is probable with bruised ribs, so count him among the lucky ones on the Dallas offense. Running back Felix Jones (shoulder) and wideout Dez Bryant (hamstring) are listed as probable, with WR Miles Austin recently downgraded to doubtful according to the Don Best injury report.

The offensive line is the next concern with center Phil Costa (knee) questionable and the guard position weak due to Derrick Dockery (knee injury) expected to miss the game. Dockery replaced Wisconsin rookie Bill Nagy after the first week, and Nagy is now probable with a neck injury that was likely caused by turning his head to see another one of his missed blocks in the Cowboys season opener.

The injuries on the line come at a bad time since this week of all weeks is one the Cowboys need their quarterback protected. Tony Romo is officially probable after cracking a rib and, oh yeah, puncturing a lung in his gutsy performance during last week's overtime win at the 49ers. It's a game that will go down in sports folklore alongside Curt Schilling's bloody ankle from Game 6 of the '04 ALCS.

Last week's victory in San Francisco also went down in the Thank You, Jesus/Allah/Buddha/Ra (pick one) files of the Dallas backers who were laying three points on the NFL betting line. It was the second 'over' of the year for the Cowboys, with a lot of NFL teams presently sporting 2-0 'over' records.

This is Dallas' first home game of the year, and Jerry Jones may want to keep some nitroglycerin handy just in case. The Cowboys were a pathetic 2-6 in Jerry's new playground last season, so it could aid a possible heart attack in case of a Dallas defeat, as well as help blow the North Texas Caligula Coliseum up after the game.

Washington is hitting the road for the first time this year. Ironically, getting their first two wins at home this year was a big deal for Shanahan and the 'Skins after they too went 2-6 in front of their home faithful in 2010.

The latest triumph didn't cover the 4½-point number Washington was laying, but it was a solid winning effort with 13 points in the final quarter to edge the Cardinals, 22-21. Having Rex Grossman for your QB is a bit like having your No. 3 starter in baseball take on the other team's ace each week, but he has gotten the job done to this point.

Grossman will have to avoid giving it up through the air this week since the Dallas defense isn't going to concede much on the ground. A key player for the Redskins might be rookie running back Roy Helu Jr. who has given them a perfect complement to Tim Hightower in the backfield.

Monday's NFL odds total is at 45½. Dallas' 33-30 win at home in Week 15 of last season stopped a string of four straight 'unders' between the two clubs.

A warm, clear day is in the forecast for the D-FW metroplex on Monday. Kickoff should find temps in the mid-80s with a very light breeze out of the northeast.

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Tony Romo Expected To Play For Dallas Cowboys

Sep 26, 2011

The status of Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo remains up in the air as he is officially listed as questionable on the injury report for Monday night’s home game against the Washington Redskins.

Most sportsbooks are holding off on posting a line on the game, although the Cowboys are favored by 6 ½ points at the Las Vegas Hilton, according to the Don Best odds screen.

Romo practiced Saturday on a limited basis after suffering a punctured lung and fractured rib in last week’s 27-24 overtime win at San Francisco. He left the game in the second half and was replaced briefly by backup Jon Kitna before returning to lead Dallas to a thrilling come-from-behind victory.

However, there are more key injuries for the Cowboys than just Romo. They could also be without both of their starting wide receivers, as Miles Austin (hamstring) is out and Dez Bryant (quad) is listed as questionable while starting running back Felix Jones is also questionable with a separated shoulder.

Austin scored a career-high three touchdowns last week against the 49ers and finished with seven catches for 143 yards. Bryant did not play in that game but had three catches for 71 yards and scored a touchdown in the season-opening 27-24 loss to the New York Jets. Jones has yet to be much of a factor for Dallas with 69 rushing yards and 27 receiving yards in two games.

If Bryant does not play, the Cowboys are expected to start Kevin Ogletree and Jesse Holley at wide receiver. Ogletree has 14 career receptions, including four this year, while Holley has even less experience with three catches for 96 yards.

However, Holley made arguably the biggest play of the game against San Francisco, hauling in a 77-yard pass from Romo in OT that set up Dan Bailey’s game-winning field goal. Holley won a tryout with the team courtesy of Michael Irvin’s “Fourth and Long” reality television show.

The Redskins are relatively healthy in comparison and covered the spread in both meetings with Dallas a year ago. Washington QB Rex Grossman enjoyed a breakout performance in his first year with the team last season in Week 15 when he threw for 322 yards and four touchdowns in a 33-30 road loss to the Cowboys.

The Redskins beat Dallas 13-7 in last year’s season opener with Donovan McNabb under center, and they are 7-2 against the spread in the past nine games between the teams despite losing four of five in the series straight-up.

The ‘under’ has cashed in four of the last five meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

MNF - Redskins at Cowboys

September 24, 2011

The NFC East usually sees plenty of storylines week in and week out, but it was turned up this week with Tony Romo and Michael Vick's injuries. Romo is expected to start on Monday night when the 1-1 Cowboys host the 2-0 Redskins, as the quarterback looks to capitalize on the dramatic comeback victory at San Francisco last Sunday.

The roles flipped around in the span of seven days after Jason Garrett's club blew a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter of a Week 1 loss to the Jets, as the Cowboys rallied from a 10-point deficit at Candlestick Park. Romo suffered bruised ribs and a punctured lung, but led Dallas on two scoring drives to force overtime, while connecting on a key 77-yard pass to Jesse Holley to set up the winning field goal. The Cowboys pushed as three-point favorites, bailing out Dallas backers when it looked like all hope with lost with Romo's injury.

Washington has turned into one of the league's early surprises after being picked by many to finish in the cellar of the NFC East. The Redskins are 2-0 following home victories over the Giants and Cardinals, capped off by overcoming a late 21-13 deficit in a 22-21 triumph against Arizona. Mike Shanahan's team failed to cover as four-point favorites, as the Redskins' offense ranks 11th in the league through two weeks by posting 393.5 yards/game (Dallas ranks fourth at 431 yards/game).

Past Romo's internal injuries, the Cowboys are dealing with the bumps and bruises of running back Felix Jones (shoulder) and wide receiver Dez Bryant (quad). Both Jones and Bryant are expected to play on Monday night, as the former Oklahoma State standout missed last week's win at San Francisco. Miles Austin is unlikely to play for the Cowboys with a hamstring injury, as the receiver hauled in nine passes for 143 yards and three touchdowns against the 49ers.

The Redskins covered two of three road games against division foes in Shanahan's first season as head coach, including a 33-30 loss at Dallas as 9 ½-point 'dogs. Washington compiled a 5-2 ATS record when receiving points on the road last season, while going 9-3-1 ATS since 2009 as an away 'dog.

Dallas isn't exactly the best team to back as a home favorite, putting together a 1-5 ATS mark last season, including 0-3 ATS record with Romo under center. The offense clicked in those three losses to the Bears, Titans, and Giants in 2010, but the defense was shredded by allowing an average of 34 ppg. The 'over' hit in all eight games at Cowboys Stadium, while cashing in 14 of the last 15 overall since Week 4 of last season.

America's Team is just 1-5 ATS since 2006 under the Monday night lights, including a 41-35 home loss to the Giants last season as 3 ½-point favorites. That defeat sent Dallas to 1-5 as Romo's season ended with a broken collarbone in the first half. The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in this stretch against NFC East opponents, while facing Washington on Monday night for the first time since 2005. That loss still stings Cowboys fans after blowing a late 13-0 lead in a 14-13 setback to the rival Redskins as six-point favorites.

Washington's record against division foes on Monday night isn't any better with three double-digit defeats over the previous two seasons, including an embarrassing 59-28 whitewashing by the Eagles in 2010. The last time the Redskins were victorious on Monday night was in 2007 as Washington won at Philadelphia, 20-12 as seven-point underdogs.

The Cowboys are listed between 4 ½ and 5-point favorites, as the line will stabilize once the status of Romo, Jones, and Bryant becomes clearer. The total is set at 45 ½ as the game will kick off at 8:30 PM EST from Cowboys Stadium and will be televised nationally on ESPN .

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Week 3 Preview: Redskins at Cowboys

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (2-0)

at DALLAS COWBOYS (1-1)


Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -6, Total: 45

Dallas plays their home opener and Washington hits the road for the first time when the classic rivalry resumes on Monday Night Football.

The Cowboys are only favored by six points in this game because of several key injuries. WR Miles Austin (pulled hamstring) is out for a month. QB Tony Romo (fractured rib, punctured lung) will likely start, but RB Felix Jones (separated shoulder), WR Dez Bryant (quad) and C Phil Costa (knee) are all questionable. The Cowboys barely pulled out a win the last time Washington came to Dallas, blowing a 20-point lead before kicking a field goal in the final minute to win 33-30. QB Rex Grossman turned it over three times in that game, but also torched the Dallas secondary for 322 yards and four touchdowns. Although Dallas is 16-3 SU at home against the rival Redskins since 1992, it is only 11-8 ATS over that span. Seven of the past nine meetings have been decided by six points or less. With the ‘Skins playing so well, combined with all the bumps and bruises on the Cowboys offense, the pick here is WASHINGTON to cover.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also favors the Redskins:

Play Against - Home teams (DALLAS) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. (28-7 since 1983.) (80%, +20.3 units. Rating = 3*).

This rare five-star FoxSheets trend expects a high-scoring affair to finish OVER the total.

DALLAS is 11-0 OVER (+11.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DALLAS 27.8, OPPONENT 30.2 - (Rating = 5*).

Despite all the offensive injuries in Dallas, the defensive unit got some great news earlier this week when CB Terence Newman announced that he would play in Monday night’s game. This should improve all phases of a defense that held San Francisco to 206 yards in an overtime game. Dallas is allowing less than three yards per carry this year (119 yards on 40 attempts). The Redskins haven’t been a quality team for a while, but Romo has been subpar when facing Washington in his career. His record is 5-6 and he only has 1,887 passing yards (172 YPG) in those 11 contests with 13 TD and 7 INT.

The Redskins have done a nice job balancing their play-calling, as they rank 10th in rushing yards (123 YPG) and 11th in passing yards (271 YPG). One player who has always been a thorn in the side of the Cowboys is veteran WR Santana Moss. In 12 career games against Dallas, Moss has 73 catches for 1,055 yards and six touchdowns. Washington’s secondary should get a nice boost as S LaRon Landry expects to make his season debut. CB Josh Wilson injured his back in the win over Arizona and will probably not be able to suit up Monday night though.

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Sharp action moves Redskins-Cowboys spread down

It seems sharp bettors don’t care who’s under center tonight for the Dallas Cowboys. They like the visiting Washington Redskins and are taking the points.

[NFL live odds]

The MGM/Mirage was one of the first sportsbooks to post odds Sunday morning on the Redskins-Cowboys. They opened with the Cowboys as 5.5-point favorites and allowed lower limit bets because of the uncertainly involving the health of Dallas quarterback Tony Romo.

It didn’t matter. The professional players came in and bet the road dog and moved the MGM/Mirage’s line down to 3.5 in the process.

“It was all wise guy play,” MGM/Mirage oddsmaker Jeff Stoneback told ***********. “We had three limit bets on them (Redskins) out of our first 10 bets.”

Stoneback says the sharps continued to take Washington even after he moved the line down to 4.5 and then 4. The MGM/Mirage is dealing 3.5 now, same as just about every other shop in Nevada and offshore.

The Las Vegas Hilton opened at Dallas -4.5 and got bet down to -3.5 due to sharp action, according to race and sportsbook director Jay Kornegay.

"The sharps are on the Redskins and obviously playing the injuries," Kornegay told *********** in an email Monday afternoon. "We expect some Dallas money but the general public are shying away from it because of the names on the injury report."

Dallas hits the field with some of its biggest names either banged up or out all together. Running back Felix Jones is expected to play but his recently separated shoulder could limit his effectiveness. And Pro Bowl receiver Miles Austin is out because of a leg injury. Romo will play but his ribs aren't fully healed and he's playing an inexperienced offensive line.

"I think [the spread] will still go down a bit maybe to a split line -3 (-120), but late money on Dallas is also expected," Kornegay said. "If we can prevent it from going down to -3, we'll do that because of the anticipation of late Dallas money."

The total was as high as 46.5 but is now mostly found at 45.

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Tale of the tape: Redskins at Cowboys

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 45.5)

For every big matchup, *********** digs a little deeper to show you which side has the edge in each aspect of the game. We uncovered some interesting statistics about Monday night’s game between the Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys.

OFFENSE

Most would agree that on paper the Cowboys boast the more talented offense. But a rash of injuries has Dallas turning to some untested players. Regular starters Tony Romo (QB), Dez Bryant (WR) and Felix Jones (RB) are all questionable due injuries. And starting wideout Miles Austin is out for sure because of a hamstring problem.

It doesn’t matter who’s under center, the Cowboys are going to sling the ball and that’s because their ground game is non-existent right now. Dallas is dead-last in yards per rushing attempt (2.3) and it won’t help the situation if Jones’ banged up shoulder keeps him out against Washington.

The Redskins are operating a more balanced attack. They’re averaging 24.5 first downs per game (good for sixth best in the league) and are gaining a respectable 4.0 yards per rushing carry.

Dallas averages more yards per play (6.5 to 5.5) but that makes sense considering the club’s reliance on the aerial strike. Still, we’ll give the checkmark to Jerry Jones’ squad because of competition played. Dallas notched over 20 points against two very good defenses (49ers and Jets).

Edge: Cowboys

DEFENSE

You know it’s either a whacky year or we don’t have enough data when the Houston Texans are leading the league in total defense. The increased scoring rate has taken a toll on the Redskins and Cowboys but both defenses rank well against the league.

Dallas is fourth in opponent yards per game (283) while Washington sits just outside the top 10 allowing 319.5 yards per game. The difference between the two clubs is clear on 3rd down. Washington allows the fewest conversions on the key down with just four in two games. Dallas, meanwhile, is next to last in the league at 7.0 conversions per game.

The Cowboys are better at slowing down the run (3.0 yards per carry) whereas the Skins are giving up almost five yards per carry. Both sides can get to the quarterback but Dallas’ shaky secondary can cause the club some big problems.

Veteran Terrence Newman is expected to return as a starting cornerback but is that a good thing for Cowboy backers? Newman was one of the worst starting CBs in football a year ago, according to ProFootballFocus.com.

Edge: Washington

SPECIAL TEAMS

Dallas would normally get the edge here but a few of its special team stars could be missing. Cowboys big kicker David Buehler is questionable because of a sore groin and speedster Dez Bryant won’t be returning kicks even if he is healthy enough to play. The word in Big D is Bryant’s return days are over.

Washington kicks fewer touchbacks but it also allows fewer yards on returns. We’ll give the Skins the nod here.

Edge: Redskins

WORD ON THE STREET

“I want to get a chance to put my helmet on whatever is hurting, Romo’s ribs. I’m gonna be asking for some corner blitzes.” – Washington CB DeAngelo Hall on potentially playing against a banged up Tony Romo.

“Well, you think about it: He’s not allowed to hit him in the head. And he can’t hit him below the knees. So he’s only got one place you can hit him. It’s such a shame he’s hurt.” – Redskins defensive coordinator Jim Haslett on Romo and how his blitzers will attack the quarterback.

Prediction: Brian Orakpo and the Skins' pass rush will be too much for Dallas’ inexperienced offensive line.

Washington 23, Dallas 20.

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Cowboys QB Tony Romo says he will play vs. Washington

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo plans to be in the huddle during Monday's game against the NFC East rival Washington Redskins.

Romo suffered a fractured rib and punctured lung in last week's game against the San Francisco 49ers. He returned to the contest and rallied Dallas to victory.

Despite being limited in practice, Romo feels he's ready to go against the undefeated Redskins (2-0).

"I'm getting better as the week goes on," Romo told ESPN's Sunday NFL Countdown. "I'll deal with it over the course of the next month, but I'll be good to go this week."

Oddsmakers currently have the Cowboys set as around 3 or 3.5-point favorites with a 45-point total after sitting as high as -5.5 Sunday. These odds are a little shorter than LVSC's Andrew Patterson anticipated earlier this week.

"I was thinking around 6 to 6.5 with Romo in; I don't think you can make it 7," Patterson told ***********. "With Romo out, I was thinking around 1.5 to 2. Again, I don't think they are a 3-point favorite, even though it is their home opener on Monday night."

A CT scan revealed that Romo's punctured lung has healed, although he still is a target of the Redskins, namely cornerback DeAngelo Hall.

"I want to get a chance to put my helmet on whatever's hurt," Hall said earlier this week.

Romo shot back on Sunday, saying, "If he's blitzing, that means he's not covering. So we'll attack his guy he's covering."

Romo has thrown for 687 yards, four TDs and one interception this season for the Cowboys (1-1).