The Bum's NFL Week # 3 Best Bets 9/25-9/26 !

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Pittsburgh Steelers Visit Winless Indianapolis Colts

The Indianapolis Colts are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
The Sunday night primetime matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts is not exactly what NBC executives were expecting.

The Don Best odds screen has Pittsburgh as 10 ½-point road favorites at most shops, down slightly from the 11-point opening. The NFL betting total is 39½ points, currently the lowest on the board this week.

NBC will broadcast at 8:20 p.m. (ET) from Lucas Oil Stadium. The game was originally scheduled with a healthy Peyton Manning in mind, but his neck injury has dramatically changed the team’s fortunes.

The Colts (0-2 straight up, 0-2 against the spread) opened with a 34-7 blowout loss at Houston. The Texans were 1-7 SU in the previous eight matchups and were looking for revenge. Indy then suffered the indignity of being 1-point home ‘dogs to lowly Cleveland last week and still lost, 27-19.

The 46 combined points scored last week went ‘over’ the 39 ½-point total. Indianapolis scored a meaningless touchdown with 24 seconds left to provide the difference. A total of 17 points were scored in the final four minutes.

Team scoring (13 PPG) ranks just 29th, with the league average 23.5 PPG. The 1,502 total points scored in the first two weeks is an NFL record.

Quarterback Kerry Collins’ job seems to safe for now as coach Jim Caldwell said he didn’t even consider putting in backup Curtis Painter last week. Collins has a 71.4 quarterback rating (ranked 29th) and his only two TD drives have been in the fourth quarter with the game out of reach. He’s limited his interceptions with just one, but has had four fumbles.

Collins may deserve a bit of a break considering he only signed with the team in late August. The offensive line has also been an issue, allowing five sacks. Guard Ryan Diem (ankle) may be out this week and that could be dangerous against the blitzing Steelers defense.

Caldwell will ideally feature backs Joseph Addai and Delone Carter more and Pittsburgh’s 100.5 YPG allowed on the ground is much higher than last year’s top mark (62.8 YPG). However, Caldwell is prone to strange decisions and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Collins take multiple shots downfield.

The Colts are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games, but all their trends need to be taken with a grain of salt with Manning out.

Pittsburgh (1-0 SU and ATS) has had two completely different results this season, a 35-7 road loss at AFC North rival Baltimore, followed by a 24-0 home win over Seattle.

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger had three interceptions against the Ravens and had a part in three fumbles. He rebounded nicely last week (22-of-30, 298 yards, no turnovers) and even played well after a knee injury scare in the second quarter.

Roethlisberger is not listed on the Don Best injury report. Guard Chris Kemoeatu (knee) is questionable and the offensive line does have to be wary in general of pass rushers Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. If Roethlisberger has time, he’ll easily be able to pick apart this secondary, with Mike Wallace (233 total yards) his favorite target.

The run game is only averaging 3.7 yards per carry (ranked 20th), but that area can also have success with Rashard Mendenhall and Isaac Redman. Indianapolis has linebackers Gary Brackett and Ernie Sims questionable with a shoulder and knee injury respectively.

The Pittsburgh defense was insulted as ‘old’ and other things after the Ravens offense had 385 total yards (170 rushing). Seattle had just 164 total yards, but the Steelers failed to cause a turnover for the second week in a row, a bit concerning. Getting takeaways will be the key to ‘covering’ this large road spread.

Pittsburgh defensive end Brett Keisel and cornerback Bryant McFadden (hamstring) are both questionable.

Pittsburgh is 2-6 in its last eight games as a 9-point road favorite or more.

This is the first meeting between the teams since 2008, with the road team winning and ‘covering’ the last two.

Weather is expected to have scattered thunderstorms and drop into the 50s, so there’s a good chance Indy’s retractable roof will be closed for the second week in row.

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Aaron Rodgers, Packers Battle Chicago Bears

The ’under’ is a perfect 7-0 in the most recent Bears, Packers matchups.
The last time the Chicago Bears hosted the Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field, a trip to the Super Bowl was on the line. The stakes will be much smaller on Sunday when they meet again and renew the NFL’s oldest rivalry in a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship Game.

Game time is scheduled for 4:15 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by FOX. The defending Super Bowl champion Packers (2-0) are favored for the sixth straight time at -3 ½ with the total at 45 ½.

The Bears (1-1) lead the all-time series 92-84-6 and won the first meeting a year ago 20-17 in Week 3 as they improved to 3-0. However, they blew an opportunity to knock Green Bay out of the playoff picture in the regular-season finale in a 10-3 loss, and fell again to the Packers 21-14 on January 23.

That latest meeting held more weight than any other game between the teams since 1941 and was a memorable one to say the least. Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler was forced to leave in the third quarter with a sprained MCL in his knee that has haunted him ever since, as millions of fans and bettors questioned his toughness in the biggest game of his career.

Cutler has taken a physical beating already through two games this season after he was sacked a league-high 52 times a year ago. He has been sacked 11 times so far in 2011, including six by New Orleans in a 30-13 loss last Sunday.

The bad news for Cutler and the Bears has gotten even worse with first-round draft pick Gabe Carimi dislocating his right knee against the Saints. Carimi is their second offensive lineman to go down in as many weeks, joining Lance Louis who was inactive last week with an ankle injury.

Chicago looked nothing like the team that pounded Atlanta 30-12 at home in the season opener while Green Bay knows exactly what it’s like to play New Orleans. The Packers held off the Saints 42-34 in their season opener and needed to rally to beat Carolina 30-23 on the road last week.

Green Bay has relied on the arm of QB Aaron Rodgers, who has completed nearly 71 percent of his passes and thrown for over 300 yards in each of the first two games. Rodgers has tossed five touchdowns without an interception and hopes his defense can get off to a better start against the Bears.

The Packers lost Pro Bowl safety Nick Collins for the season after he suffered a neck injury in the fourth quarter against the Panthers. The loss of Collins hurts a secondary that has seen the opposing QB top the 400-yard mark in each of their two wins.

The Bears will try to take advantage of that defensive weakness and cover the spread for the third time in four meetings. The ‘under’ has cashed in the last seven meetings with Green Bay winning four of the past five.

The weather forecast for Sunday in Chicago calls for a 30 percent chance of showers with a high temperature of 62 degrees.

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Week 3 Preview: Texans at Saints

HOUSTON TEXANS (2-0)

at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (1-1)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: New Orleans -4, Total: 53

Houston’s rebuilt secondary gets its first major test when the Texans visit Drew Brees and the Saints on Sunday afternoon. The last time these teams squared off was 2007 when Houston won 23-10.

After having the worst pass defense in all of football a year ago, the Texans added CB Johnathan Joseph and FS Danieal Manning and switched to a 3-4 base alignment under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. Houston currently leads the NFL in both total defense (271 YPG) and scoring defense (10.0 PPG), but it wasn’t really tested in matchups with two of the worst starting QBs in football -- Indianapolis’ Kerry Collins and Miami’s Chad Henne. Even with WR Marques Colston out and WR Lance Moore playing at less than full speed, Saints QB Drew Brees threw for 270 yards and 3 TD against a very good Chicago defense this past Sunday. Houston was 2-6 ATS as an underdog last year, and the Saints are 4-1 ATS in their past five home games. The pick here is NEW ORLEANS to win big.

The FoxSheets provide a three-star trend favoring the Saints:

Play On - Home favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - good team from last season - outscored opponents by 4 or more points/game, after scoring 30 points or more last game. (35-9 since 1983.) (79.5%, +25.1 units. Rating = 3*).

Arian Foster, last year’s leading rusher in the NFL, had to take himself out of Sunday’s win over Miami because his hamstring was bothering him. Luckily for Foster and the Texans, the ground game hasn’t suffered, as Ben Tate has rushed for 219 of the team’s 305 yards this year. Tate is averaging 4.7 YPC during his back-to-back 100-yard efforts. With Foster still questionable to play and RB Derrick Ward likely out because of an ankle injury, Tate will continue to be a huge part of this offense. QB Matt Schaub hasn’t been flawless (3 TD, 2 INT), but he has completed 72% of his passes, including 14 completions and two scores to Andre Johnson. Other than Foster and Ward, the Texans are dealing with injuries to LB DeMeco Ryans (elbow), CB Johnathan Joseph (ankle) and WR Kevin Walter (collarbone), who are all questionable for Sunday’s game.

Brees has thrown for three scores in both of his games, racking up 689 passing yards. Most of this has been done without Colston, who is expected to miss a month with a broken collarbone. Lance Moore (groin) will likely suit up again Sunday, but he only had one catch for six yards in the win over Chicago. RB Darren Sproles leads the team in targets (19) and receptions (15), but WR Devery Henderson has been the best option downfield with 203 yards on nine catches (22.6 avg) and 2 TD. Rookie RB Mark Ingram has not been the consistent rusher the team had hoped he’d be, with just 91 yards on 27 carries (3.4 YPC), with his longest run being 12 yards. One key defensive player the Saints would love to get back is CB Tracy Porter, who did not play last week because of a calf injury.

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Week 3 Preview: Giants at Eagles

NEW YORK GIANTS (1-1)

at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (1-1)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -7.5, Total: 49

Philadelphia looks for a seventh straight series win (SU and ATS) over rival New York when the divisional foes meet Sunday afternoon. The injury-depleted Giants could catch a break as Eagles star QB Michael Vick is questionable with a concussion.

Although Philly has won these six consecutive meetings by an average of 10.8 PPG, the Eagles needed a game-ending, punt-return TD from DeSean Jackson to complete an improbable comeback to beat the Giants last December. This offseason, Philadelphia has reloaded while New York is falling apart. Philly has the defensive backs to smother the Giants’ passing game, while New York’s injuries in the secondary (CBs Prince Amukamara and Terrell Thomas) will leave the G-Men susceptible to Philly’s big-play receivers. Even if Vick is not cleared to return, backup Mike Kafka (7-for-9, 72 yards) proved to be serviceable during fourth-quarter action in Atlanta. The pick here is PHILADELPHIA to win and cover.

The FoxSheets give another reason to play on the Eagles:

Andy Reid is 99-61 ATS (61.9%, +31.9 Units) against conference opponents as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 23.9, OPPONENT 18.1 - (Rating = 2*).

Eli Manning has been a mediocre quarterback versus the Eagles in his career, with a 6-8 record, 59% completion rate, 222 passing YPG, 22 TD and 16 INT. He’s not yet working with a healthy receiving unit though, as WR Mario Manningham is questionable with a concussion. Two other wide receivers that are also hurt, but will most likely play through knee injuries for a second straight week, are Domenik Hixon and Hakeem Nicks. The oft-injured RB duo of Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs are both healthy, but neither has been great this year, combining for 182 yards on 50 carries (3.6 YPC). On the defensive side of the ball, DE Justin Tuck was able to play in Monday night’s win over St. Louis (five tackles 1.5 sacks), but fellow DE Osi Umenyiora (knee) is not expected to play in Week 3.

Vick isn’t the only Eagles offensive star that was banged up in Sunday’s loss to Atlanta. RB LeSean McCoy suffered a hand injury, WR DeSean Jackson injured his wrist and TE Brent Celek strained his back. All three players are questionable, but McCoy will likely play on Sunday. Fortunately, Jeremy Maclin, whose health was a major concern in the preseason, has been injury-free, catching 14 passes for 191 yards and two touchdowns in his first two games of 2011. Two defensive ends are also injured as Trent Cole strained a tendon in his hand against the Falcons and Juqua Parker has a high ankle sprain that will likely keep him sidelined for Sunday.

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Top 5 NFL Trends

WAS
DAL Over is 9-0 in DAL last 9 home games.

DET
MIN DET are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.

NE
BUF Over is 7-0 in NE last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

NE
BUF Over is 7-0 in NE last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

NE
BUF NE are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Buffalo.

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Trending: NFL home underdogs

Home underdogs have long been a popular proposition when wagering on the NFL. Beginning with the 2008 season, there have been 265 games in which the home team has been the underdog. These home ‘dogs are an underwhelming 122-134 ATS (47.7%) in this time period. While this number alone has not been a profitable proposition either way, breaking it down team-by-team yields some solid plays.

Six teams are 60% or better ATS as home underdogs since
2008 (minimum of four games):
Team ATS Pct.
Atlanta 5-1 83.3%
Tennessee 4-1 80.0%
Cincinnati 9-5 64.3%
Arizona 5-3 62.5%
Chicago 6-4 60.0%
Denver 6-4 60.0%


The six Worst home underdogs ATS (minimum of four games) are:
Team ATS Pct.
Tampa Bay 1-10 9.1%
Buffalo 3-7 30.0%
Miami 4-7 36.4%
Oakland 7-11 38.9%
St. Louis 9-13 40.9%
Detroit 8-11 42.1%


Home underdogs with the Best Over percentages (minimum four games) are:
Team ATS Pct.
Houston 5-1 83.3%
Kansas City 10-3 76.9%
Miami 7-4 63.6%
Detroit 11-7 61.1%
Tennessee 3-2 60.0%


Home underdogs with the Best Under percentages (minimum four games) are:
Team ATS Pct.
Buffalo 10-2 83.3%
Denver 7-3 70.0%
Jacksonville 6-4 60.0%


Interestingly, only New England and San Diego have never been a home underdog over the last three-plus seasons.

Aside from these team-specific numbers, we also found an assortment of other trends that have been established in games with home underdogs:

Home underdogs of more than 13 points are 5-2 ATS (71%).

Home underdogs of exactly 6 points are 5-11 ATS (31%).

Home underdogs are 4-7 ATS (36%) when the total is 50 or more.

Home underdogs are 2-6 ATS (25%) when the total is 35 or less.

Home underdogs are 8-5 ATS (62%)when they receive 43% or more of the public’s backing. The Under is also 8-5 (62%) in these games.

Home underdogs are 7-15 ATS (32%) when the Under receives the majority of the public’s support.

Home underdogs are 11-7 ATS (61%) when the Over receives 85% or more of the public action.

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Week 3 Preview: Jets at Raiders

NEW YORK JETS (2-0)

at OAKLAND RAIDERS (1-1)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -4, Total: 42

Oakland’s power running game will get its first major test when the Raiders host the Jets and a defense that’s consistently one of the best in stopping the run.

The last time these teams met, in 2009, the Jets ran up a whopping 316 rushing yards in a 38-0 trouncing of the Raiders in Oakland. This is the first road game of the year for the Jets, who went 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS away from home a year ago, including 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS prior to Thanksgiving. Gang Green’s defense is coming off what was essentially a bye week after getting no challenge from QB Luke McCown and the Jaguars in a 32-3 Week 2 beatdown. Oakland’s defense allowed Buffalo to score five touchdowns on five drives in the second half, as it squandered a 21-3 halftime lead and lost 38-35. Look for Hue Jackson’s team to quickly forget about what could’ve been and focus on playing the Jets in front of a raucous home crowd. Expect home underdog OAKLAND to pull out the victory on Sunday.

The FoxSheets show a three-star reason to take the Raiders:

Play Against - Any team (N.Y. JETS) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points. (25-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 3*).

New York is 4-1 SU (3-0-1 ATS) in the past five meetings with Oakland. The Jets ranked fourth in the NFL in rushing last year (148 YPG), but this year they have the league’s fifth-worst ground game, gaining a pathetic 146 yards on 48 carries (3.0 YPC). Shonn Greene is rushing for 2.9 YPC, while LaDainian Tomlinson has 11 carries for 24 yards (2.2 YPC). They really need to improve in this area, especially with their top three receivers slowed by injuries -- Santonio Holmes (knee/quadriceps), Plaxico Burress (ankle) and Derrick Mason (knee). Though all three WRs are expected to play in Oakland. Nick Mangold, one of the top centers in the NFL, will be out 2-to-3 weeks due to a high ankle sprain. Defensively, the Jets have forced seven turnovers this year, and held Jacksonville to 203 yards of total offense last week. This was a huge improvement from allowing 326 passing yards to Dallas in the season opener.

The Raiders offense only gained 289 yards in the season opener in Denver, but improved that number to 454 yards in Buffalo. Darren McFadden has 299 total yards on 5.3 YPC this season. Rookie WR Denarius Moore has done a nice job replacing injured receivers Jacoby Ford and Louis Murphy, who are both inflicted by hamstring woes. Moore caught five Jason Campbell passes for 146 yards (29.2 avg) in last week’s loss to the Bills. WR Darrius Heyward-Bey and TE Kevin Boss are both questionable due to knee injuries. The Raiders defense appears to be healthy, although S Michael Huff didn’t play his normal amount of snaps in Buffalo because of a groin injury. Oakland ranks 25th in the league in total defense (396 YPG) after allowing the Bills to rack up 481 yards last Sunday.

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Week 3 Tip Sheet

September 22, 2011

Heading into Week 3 of the NFL, six teams are listed as road favorites, while only seven clubs are 2-0 out of the chute. Five of the squads laying points on the highway are 3 ½-point 'chalk' as the likelihood that all five cover is low. Three teams (Ravens, Jets, and Packers) made the postseason last year while the other two (Lions and Cardinals) are rarities when it comes to being road favorites. We'll start with that surprising Detroit club, who goes for a 3-0 start.

Lions (-3 ½, 45) at Vikings - 1:00 PM EST

Detroit is favored on the road for the first time since an opening week loss at Atlanta in 2008. The Lions have started 2-0 in three other instances since 2000, but lost each time in the third game as they head to Minneapolis to battle the 0-2 Vikings. Minnesota squandered a 17-0 advantage in last week's home loss to Tampa Bay, the second straight week the Vikings have blown a lead heading into the final quarter.

The Lions have dropped 12 straight meetings at the Metrodome with the last win coming in 1997. Jim Schwartz's team is riding a three-game road winning streak since last December, but Detroit is 1-19 SU the last 20 divisional road contests. Minnesota was listed as a home 'dog twice last season against the Giants and Bears, as each loss came outside of the Metrodome after the roof fell apart in December.

Jets (-3 ½, 41) at Raiders - 4:05 PM EST

New York begins a three-game road trip following victories over Dallas and Jacksonville as the Jets visit the Black Hole to battle the Raiders. Oakland blew a 21-3 lead in last Sunday's 38-35 defeat at Buffalo, but the Raiders managed to cash for the second straight week on the highway. The Jets picked up their seventh win in their last nine at home with a 32-3 trouncing of the Jaguars as nine-point favorites.

Rex Ryan's team has taken care of business as a road favorite in his short tenure with a 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS mark. This is an important game for the Jets as they head to Baltimore and New England in the following two weeks, while Oakland is starting a stretch with five of the next six games at home. The Raiders are just 4-6 SU/ATS the last 10 home games against non-division opponents, while the 'over' has cashed six times.

Ravens (-3 ½, 41 ½) at Rams - 4:05 PM EST

Baltimore looks to put last week's shocking loss at Tennessee behind them as the Ravens head to St. Louis for a non-conference matchup with the Rams. Steve Spagnuolo's offense has struggled by putting up just 22 points since Steven Jackson's touchdown four minutes into the season-opening loss to the Eagles. The Rams are in the midst of a stretch that can turn disastrous with Washington, Green Bay, Dallas, and New Orleans coming up after Baltimore.

John Harbaugh's team has done a solid job on the road off a loss by compiling a 7-2 SU/ATS mark since 2008, including a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS record as a favorite. The Rams are not in a great spot off the defeat to the Giants, as home teams off a Monday night loss are 4-9 ATS since the start of last season, including ATS defeats by the Dolphins and Broncos in Week 2.

Packers (-3 ½, 45 ½) at Bears - 4:15 PM EST

A rematch of the NFC Championship takes place at Soldier Field as Chicago looks to avenge a 21-14 loss to Green Bay in January. The Packers' offense has looked sharp in two victories over the Saints and Panthers, even though Green Bay failed to cash as double-digit favorites at Carolina. Chicago hung around at New Orleans for a half, but couldn't slow down the explosive Saints' attack in a 30-13 defeat as 4 ½-point 'dogs to fall to 1-1 on the season.

The Packers have done well against division foes on the road by compiling a 12-4 ATS record under Mike McCarthy since 2006. However, Green Bay owns a dreadful 0-8 SU mark since November 2007 in the second game of consecutive regular season road contests, coming off the win over Carolina. The Bears own a solid 6-2 ATS ledger in Lovie Smith’s tenure as a home underdog against NFC North foes.

Cardinals (-3 ½, 43) at Seahawks – 4:15 PM EST

It’s tough to think when an early season NFC West game means so much, but Seattle can help itself with a home victory over Arizona. The Seahawks head home to Qwest Field following road losses at San Francisco and Pittsburgh as Pete Carroll’s team has scored just 17 points total in the two defeats. The Cards look to put a tough 22-21 setback at Washington behind them after owning an eight-point lead in the fourth quarter.

These teams have split the last four meetings in Seattle, while Ken Whisenhunt’s club is favored at Qwest Field for just the second time since the Seahawks joined the NFC West in 2002. Seattle owns an 11-6 ATS record the last 17 home games, including consecutive outright ‘dog wins to close out last season against St. Louis and New Orleans.

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Atlanta Falcons In Key Matchup At Tampa Bay

The Atlanta Falcons head to Tampa Bay to face the Buccaneers in what could be a very important game down the road for divisional supremacy in the AFC South.

The game kicks off at Raymond James Stadium at 4:15 p.m. (ET) and will be televised on FOX. Tampa Bay is a slight 1 ½-point favorite at home on the Don Best odds screen.

Both teams are coming off impressive come-from-behind victories. Tampa Bay was down 17-0 at the half in Minnesota, but outscored the Vikings 24-3 in the second half to pick up the win as a 3-point underdog.

Atlanta was down 31-20 to the Eagles late in the third quarter, but an injury to Mike Vick opened the door for the Falcons to score 14 unanswered points in the fourth to win 34-31 as a 2 ½-point home underdog.

Tampa Bay (1-1) won 10 games last season, but failed to make the playoffs in large part due to the fact that the Bucs weren’t able to win key divisional games. While they beat lowly Carolina twice, they lost both games to Atlanta and the first to New Orleans, only beating New Orleans in Week 17 when the division was already decided.

A win over Atlanta this week would make a statement that Tampa Bay belongs in the discussion for the AFC South Title, and that Josh Freeman is ready to take the next step. Judging by the spread, bookmakers seem to think that statement could be made this weekend.

Atlanta (1-1) hasn’t looked much like the team that went 13-3 during the regular season last year. The Falcons lost an ugly game to the Bears in Week 1, and escaped by the skin of their teeth last week.

One problem has been penalties. Flagged only 58 times last season, Atlanta was far and away the league’s least penalized team; the Falcons have already taken 16 penalties this year.

But if last week proved anything, it was that they still have a clutch performer late in games in Matt Ryan, as he marched down the field twice on one of the NFL’s best defenses.

Atlanta has won five straight games in this division rivalry, but is just 2-3 ATS over that stretch. In fact, Tampa Bay is 6-2 ATS over the last eight meetings, dating back to 2007.

The total for this game is currently listed at 45 ½. After seeing the ‘under’ cash in the previous four meetings, the total went ‘over’ in both of Atlanta’s wins over Tampa Bay last season. The final score has gone ‘over’ in five of Atlanta’s last six games on the road and four of Tampa Bay’s last five games at home.

Each of the last five games between these two teams has been decided by 10 points or less, with four decided by six points or less. It could come down to who has the ball last, and both of these quarterbacks have proven capable in those situations.

There is a 50 percent chance of rain in Tampa this Sunday when afternoon highs are expected to climb to the muggy mid-80s.

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San Diego Chargers Heavy Chalk Vs Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) and San Diego Chargers (1-1) open up their respective AFC West division schedules this Sunday in a Week 3 contest. Kickoff from beautiful San Diego, is expected at 4:05 p.m. (ET) and the game will be televised on CBS.

Kansas City’s injury problems and lack of competitiveness has caused a major correction in the betting odds. The Chiefs opened as 15-point road underdogs and the total has moved up from 44 to 45 ½ in most spots.

It’s pretty remarkable that last year’s division winner is getting that many points against a rival, but bettors have watched the team fail to cover the spread by a combined 73 ½ points in losses to the Buffalo Bills (41-7) and Detroit Lions (48-3). The team has never been outscored by as many points through Week 2 of the season in franchise history and it isn’t likely to turn around due to losing a key player on each side of the ball in successive weeks.

Safety Eric Berry was lost due to a torn ACL versus the Bills, while Jamaal Charles went down with the same injury in Detroit a week ago. Both players were playing in Hawaii in last year's Pro Bowl.

The Chiefs must take care of the football to remain competitive, as they come into this game leading the league in turnovers. San Diego has a propensity for suffering from its own mistakes, causing each team to preach ball security during practice.

Quarterback Matt Cassel will need to raise his level of play with the league’s second-leading rusher no longer in the backfield, but Sunday’s matchup isn’t the best opportunity for him to turn things around. The former New England Patriots signal-caller has averaged 114.3 yards with three touchdowns and four interceptions in his last three games against the Chargers defense.

Bettors may find some line value in this contest due to the Chiefs being 10-2 ATS as an underdog of 10½ or more points, while the ‘under’ is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in San Diego.

Philip Rivers has enjoyed more success in this series than his counterpart, averaging 295.2 yards, and leading his team to victories in five of six tries. He completed 29-of-40 passes for 378 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions in last week’s 35-21 loss to the New England Patriots as 6 ½-point road underdogs.

San Diego head coach Norv Turner will stress to his team the importance of getting off to a good start as a double-digit favorite, as the squad has trailed going into halftime in both games this season. Playing this game at Qualcomm Stadium will likely jumpstart the team, as the Chargers have built 21-0 and 28-17 halftime leads over the Chiefs in their last two meetings on this field.

Casual bettors will likely lay the points due to the home team being 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

Weather forecasts are suggesting partly cloudy skies and game-time temperatures in the mid-60s. Another beautiful day to play football in Southern California.

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Arizona Cardinals Travel To Face Seattle Seahawks

The Seattle Seahawks have looked abysmal in losing their first two games of the season and will count on their 12th man in the stands to help them turn things around when they host the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. Seattle’s CenturyLink Field is known to have some of the loudest fans in the NFL, and the Seahawks (0-2) will need them to be a factor if they are going to register their first victory.

Game time is scheduled for 4:15 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by FOX.

The Cardinals (1-1) opened as 3-point favorites according to the Don Best odds screen and have been up to -3 ½ at some sportsbooks. The total opened at 41 ½ and has moved as high as 43.

Arizona appears to be the best team in the NFC West so far despite losing 22-21 at Washington last week. The Cardinals covered the 4 ½-point spread and led the game most of the way until Redskins kicker Graham Gano connected on a 34-yard field goal with 1:45 remaining.

New quarterback Kevin Kolb had his second straight solid performance for Arizona with 251 yards passing and two touchdowns, although he did throw his first interception of the year. Kolb found wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald on a 73-yard touchdown pass, and the two hooked up seven times for 133 yards total.

The bigger concern for the Cardinals is their defense, which allowed Washington to score on three fourth-quarter drives and surrendered 455 yards of offense. They had given up a rookie record 422 passing yards to Carolina QB Cam Newton in the season opener but managed to win that game, 28-21.

Seattle may have trouble challenging Arizona after scoring a combined 17 points in the first two games. The Seahawks were blanked 24-0 at Pittsburgh last week and finished with just 164 yards.

Kolb was one of Seattle’s options at QB before the team ultimately settled on Tavaris Jackson, who has been a major disappointment so far. Jackson has yet to crack the 200-yard mark through the air, but he may have wide receiver Sidney Rice available for the first time after he sat out the first two games with a shoulder injury.

Rice’s presence could be huge because Jackson has not been much of a factor on the ground either with seven carries for 25 yards. He has been sacked 10 times already for 68 yards, rendering his mobility rather useless. Starting running back Marshawn Lynch also has only 44 yards on 19 carries for the NFL’s worst running game, averaging 47.5 yards per game as a team.

The Seahawks swept the season series last year after losing the previous four meetings with the Cardinals. Seattle won those two games by a combined score of 58-28 but allowed 26 points or more in each of the previous four.

The ‘under’ has cashed in the last three home meetings for the Seahawks.

There is a 60 percent chance of rain in the Seattle area on Sunday with the high temperature expected to reach 66 degrees.

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Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest Update

Neither game qualified as a true upset. After all, the Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills were both favored in their Week 2 matchups.

But the way the two games ended upset a lot of fans and bettors. The results also were key to the latest standings in the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest.

The Oakland Raiders dragged a 21-3 lead into the locker room at Ralph Wilson Stadium and twice held 4-point leads in the fourth quarter. Ryan Fitzpatrick was not to be denied, however – Bet you didn't think you'd ever hear that! – and rallied the Bills for the 38-35 win.

Most Bills backers on the NFL odds board saw the final fall a point shy of the 4-point closing line on the odds. Some lucky Bills fans got a 'push,' and all 'over' bettors rejoiced in the second half offensive fireworks.

Most bettors 'pushed' in the Cowboys' overtime 27-24 win at San Francisco, thanks to the performance of Tony Romo. The Dallas quarterback got up off the mat and brought Jerry's kids back from a 10-point deficit in the final quarter to force extended play. Romo then connected with Jesse Holley on a 77-yard strike on Dallas' first play in OT to set up the game-winning field goal.

Dallas opened and closed as 3-point road favorites. It was one of the 11 matchups in Week 2 to go 'over' the total, just like Week 1.

The two biggest upsets last week occurred in Nashville and Atlanta. The Tennessee Titans were 6-point underdogs to the visiting Baltimore Ravens only to emerge with a 26-13 victory. Titans QB Matt Hasselbeck helped new head coach Mike Munchak to his first win as Tennessee shredded the Ravens defense for 432 yards, 358 of those through the air.

A crowd of nearly 70,000 showed up at the Georgia Dome where Michael Vick returned in a matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles. Vick had to leave the game just before the end of the third quarter, and Matt Ryan helped bring the Falcons back from a 10-point hole.

Atlanta's 35-31 win came as 2½-point underdogs in yet another Week 2 'over.'

One of the five 'unders' for the week was a blowout in the Big Easy where the New Orleans Saints beat up the Chicago Bears, 30-13. Drew Brees and the Saints spotted the Bears a 7-0 lead and then put a close game away with a strong second half. New Orleans registered six sacks of Chicago QB Jay Cutler, and the Saints pass rush hit him another 16 times in what turned into a very long afternoon for the Bears and their signal caller.

Each club found itself settling for a short field goal during the affair that helped keep the final below the 47-point mark.

Last but not least, the New York football Giants bested the St. Louis Rams in the Monday night event, 28-16. Despite neither team scoring in the final 15 minutes, the game still skipped above 43 on the NFL betting line.

Here's a quick look at the leaders following the first two weeks in the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest.



STANDINGS PTS RECORD
PagerMaker 8.5
8-1-1

Sans Souci 8.5
8-1-1

Mister P 8.0
8-2-0

Treasure Hunter 8.0
7-1-2

gameanalysts.com 7.5
7-2-1

Mikey Millz 7.5
7-2-1

Rocco212 7.5
7-2-1

Local 7.5
7-2-1

NSSG 7.5
7-2-1

Thk$ Answers 7.5
7-2-1

Three tied with 7.0

[StarDust Bum]

Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest Update
By: Willie Bee | Friday, September 23, 2011 Neither game qualified as a true upset. After all, the Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills were both favored in their Week 2 matchups.

But the way the two games ended upset a lot of fans and bettors. The results also were key to the latest standings in the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest.

The Oakland Raiders dragged a 21-3 lead into the locker room at Ralph Wilson Stadium and twice held 4-point leads in the fourth quarter. Ryan Fitzpatrick was not to be denied, however – Bet you didn't think you'd ever hear that! – and rallied the Bills for the 38-35 win.

Most Bills backers on the NFL odds board saw the final fall a point shy of the 4-point closing line on the odds. Some lucky Bills fans got a 'push,' and all 'over' bettors rejoiced in the second half offensive fireworks.

Most bettors 'pushed' in the Cowboys' overtime 27-24 win at San Francisco, thanks to the performance of Tony Romo. The Dallas quarterback got up off the mat and brought Jerry's kids back from a 10-point deficit in the final quarter to force extended play. Romo then connected with Jesse Holley on a 77-yard strike on Dallas' first play in OT to set up the game-winning field goal.

Dallas opened and closed as 3-point road favorites. It was one of the 11 matchups in Week 2 to go 'over' the total, just like Week 1.

The two biggest upsets last week occurred in Nashville and Atlanta. The Tennessee Titans were 6-point underdogs to the visiting Baltimore Ravens only to emerge with a 26-13 victory. Titans QB Matt Hasselbeck helped new head coach Mike Munchak to his first win as Tennessee shredded the Ravens defense for 432 yards, 358 of those through the air.

A crowd of nearly 70,000 showed up at the Georgia Dome where Michael Vick returned in a matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles. Vick had to leave the game just before the end of the third quarter, and Matt Ryan helped bring the Falcons back from a 10-point hole.

Atlanta's 35-31 win came as 2½-point underdogs in yet another Week 2 'over.'

One of the five 'unders' for the week was a blowout in the Big Easy where the New Orleans Saints beat up the Chicago Bears, 30-13. Drew Brees and the Saints spotted the Bears a 7-0 lead and then put a close game away with a strong second half. New Orleans registered six sacks of Chicago QB Jay Cutler, and the Saints pass rush hit him another 16 times in what turned into a very long afternoon for the Bears and their signal caller.

Each club found itself settling for a short field goal during the affair that helped keep the final below the 47-point mark.

Last but not least, the New York football Giants bested the St. Louis Rams in the Monday night event, 28-16. Despite neither team scoring in the final 15 minutes, the game still skipped above 43 on the NFL betting line.

Here's a quick look at the leaders following the first two weeks in the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest.



STANDINGS PTS RECORD
PagerMaker 8.5
8-1-1

Sans Souci 8.5
8-1-1

Mister P 8.0
8-2-0

Treasure Hunter 8.0
7-1-2

gameanalysts.com 7.5
7-2-1

Mikey Millz 7.5
7-2-1

Rocco212 7.5
7-2-1

Local 7.5
7-2-1

NSSG 7.5
7-2-1

Thk$ Answers 7.5
7-2-1

Three tied with 7.0

[StarDust Bum]

Caesars Palace Sports Book Weekly Update

Caesars Palace Senior Race and Sports Book Analyst Todd Fuhrman stopped by the Don Best studios to recap last week’s football action and to take a look ahead at the coming games for this weekend.

One particular game on last Saturday’s college slate that caught Fuhrman’s attention was the matchup between the Oklahoma Sooners and Florida State Seminoles. Despite a late showing in the fourth quarter, the public won along with the Sooners who emerged victorious as 3-4½ point favorites, 23-13.

As far as Week 2 in the NFL, the betting public was all over the Baltimore Ravens who barely showed up against the Tennessee Titans in a 26-13 loss. The Ravens were favored by about a touchdown on the road, but almost all of the money was on Baltimore.

The ‘over’ seems to be trending all around the league, but even more so in night games as the final scores are 5-0-1 above the total this season in the National Football League.

Looking ahead to this Saturday’s games on the college football schedule there are plenty of interesting matchups.

Starting quarterback EJ Manuel is likely out for Florida State this week when the Seminoles take on the Clemson Tigers. The 'Noles are ranked No. 9 on the Don Best Linemakers Poll, but the money is going against them due to that injury. FSU opened as 3-point favorites against the No. 30 Tigers, but that has swung all the way over to Clemson -2½. The total is 49½.

In the SEC clash between the No. 12 Arkansas Razorbacks and the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide, ‘Bama opened as a 14-point favorite but the number is now sitting around 11 or 12. Meanwhile, the total has moved up a bit to 50½. Bettors seem to be finding an advantage on Arkansas’ side.

Even though the No. 19 USC Trojans are not eligible for a national or Pac-12 title, they head into Sun Devil Stadium undefeated against the No. 25 Arizona State Sun Devils. Fuhrman expects the public to be on the side of the Trojans who are 2½-point underdogs with the current total 54. The Sun Devils have been experiencing injuries on the defensive side of the ball, most recently to defensive end Junior Onyeali. Not to mention their head coach, Dennis Erickson, is on the hot seat.

Stanford is a team that continues to get money on their side. While noting that the Cardinal have a bye this week, Fuhrman says, “Apparently bookmakers, like myself, haven’t adjusted enough to Andrew Luck.”

The outstanding quarterback is projected to be the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft.

With the NFL in mind, one matchup drawing interest all around the country is the time-tested rivalry between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Green Bay is a 3½-point road favorite with the total at 46. It was on this field where QB Jay Cutler got hurt and sat out the rest of last year’s NFC Championship game against these Packers, and this week's rematchis one of the marquee matchups of Week 4.

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Week 3 Preview: Steelers at Colts

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (1-1)

at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (0-2)


Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Pittsburgh -10.5, Total: 39

Things won’t get any easier for the Peyton Manning-less Colts when the Steelers visit for Sunday Night Football.

After a disastrous Week 1, the Steelers shut down the Seahawks in Week 2, limiting them to 164 total yards in a 24-0 victory. Leading the Titans the last two seasons, Colts starter Kerry Collins has lost to Pittsburgh twice (1-1 ATS), throwing for 393 yards and turning it over three times in those games. The Colts were worn down by Cleveland’s physicality in Week 2, allowing 13 fourth-quarter points in a 27-19 loss. Collins is completing just 50.7% of his passes through two games this year, throwing for just 388 yards. The Steelers are 10-5 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season, including a perfect 5-0 ATS when favored by at least a touchdown during this span. Expect PITTSBURGH to dominate and win by at least two touchdowns on Sunday.

The FoxSheets give a pair of two-star reasons to choose the Steelers:

Play On - Any team (PITTSBURGH) - good rushing defense from last season - allowed 90 or less rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game. (23-5 since 1983.) (82.1%, +17.5 units. Rating = 2*).

PITTSBURGH is 12-3 ATS (80.0%, +8.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PITTSBURGH 23.6, OPPONENT 13.7 - (Rating = 2*).

Pittsburgh got a scare last week when QB Ben Roethlisberger left with a knee injury, but all reports are saying his knee is fine to play on Sunday. Despite his injury, Roethlisberger still connected on 22-of-30 passes for 298 yards and a TD against Seattle. Mike Wallace has already been targeted 20 times this year, catching 16 of those balls thrown in his direction for 233 yards. On defense, the Steelers could be without DE Brett Keisel (knee) and DB Bryant McFadden (hamstring) who are both listed as questionable.

Indy’s offense has been brutal, averaging 260.5 total yards per game, which ranks fourth-worst in the NFL. Both touchdowns the offense produced have come in garbage time. Trailing 34-0 in Week 1 at Houston, Indy got in the end zone with 9:17 left. Last week the Colts scored a touchdown with 24 seconds remaining, but still lost to Cleveland 27-19. Collins is averaging a mere 5.6 passing yards per attempt, as only Reggie Wayne (172 rec. yds) has surpassed 75 receiving yards in the first two games this year. A bigger concern for the Colts could be stopping Pittsburgh’s rushing attack, possibly without LBs Gary Brackett (shoulder) and LB Ernie Sims (knee) who are both deemed questionable. Indianapolis doesn’t usually have the underdog role, but the Colts are 11-6 ATS when getting points since 2006.