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**StarDust Bum** · 09-19-2011, 05:55 PM

Houston Texans At Saints In NFL Shootout

In what should be one of the higher scoring matchups on the NFL Week 3 betting lines, the Houston Texans will take on the New Orleans Saints. Sunday afternoon's kickoff from the Louisiana Superdome is set for 1:00 p.m. (ET), and there will be regional television coverage on CBS.

If you're a fan of a good old fashioned gunslinger-style shootout, this is the duel for you. These two teams are combining for nearly 800 yards of offense and just over 60 points per game ove the first two weeks of the schedule, and we know that both haven't even scratched the surface of their potential quite yet.

Houston's defense is ranked No. 1 in the NFL right now at 271.0 YPG and 10.0 PPG, but we know that a lot of this is thanks to the fact that the Indianapolis Colts and Miami Dolphins aren't exactly offensive powerhouses. That being said, this unit has improved dramatically since defensive coordinator Wade Phillips has taken over.

Both Johnathan Joseph and Brian Cushing missed a lot of time in last week's 23-13 win over the Dolphins, and though Cushing hasn't appeared on the team's injury report as of Monday, Joseph is already considered questionable with an ankle injury.

Should Joseph not be able to go, the secondary will be shifted around quite a bit. Rashad Carmichael has an ailing shoulder, and Jason Allen was torn apart by Brandon Marshall on the outside last week. Kareem Jackson, the team's first round draft choice from two years ago, has fallen out of favor and wasn't even in the starting lineup last week at Miami.

Glover Quin, who just moved to safety in the offseason, might have to shift back to the outside at cornerback in this game or play more man coverage when the Saints spread the field.

Offensively, everyone in the Lone Star State is holding its breath about the status of Arian Foster. He started against the Dolphins, but he didn't make it through the first half after apparently re-aggravating his hamstring injury. He is questionable for Week 3.

In his place though, former Auburn Tiger Ben Tate has had a pair of 100+ yard rushing games, and he has proven to be more than a capable backup.

Derrick Ward could be back in the fold at New Orleans after sitting out against Miami with an ankle injury. It is unlikely that Kevin Walter suits up after missing Week 2 with a collarbone injury, which means more reps for Jacoby Jones on the outside opposite of Andre Johnson.

Drew Brees and the New Orleans offense haven't missed a beat despites top receiver Marques Colston out last week against the Chicago Bears. Colston won't be playing for another few weeks, but both Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem have a pair of TD receptions, while Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles already have over 100 yards receiving between them on the year.

Though Brees has thrown for 689 yards and six scores in two games, there is still a real concern about how good the Saints ground game really is. Houston was vulnerable last week to rookie Daniel Thomas right up the gut against its relatively weak defensive front three, but there is a question whether either Mark Ingram or Pierre Thomas has the ability to take advantage of that.

Ingram is only averaging 3.4 YPC this year, while Thomas only has 72 yards on 14 carries. New Orleans has had just one run of more than 12 yards the first two weeks, and the ground game has only been good for 99.5 YPG.

Not surprisingly, this is the highest 'total' on the board on the Don Best odds screen. The number has been set at 53½. New Orleans has opened up as a four-point choice of the oddsmakers as of Monday morning.

These two teams have only met twice before in the regular season, though they are regular mates in the preseason. The Texans won 23-10 at Reliant Stadium in 2007, while the Saints claimed a 33-10 triumph in only meeting between these two squads at the Superdome in 2003.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-19-2011, 11:03 PM

Surprising Buffalo Bills Host Tom Brady, Patriots

The Patriots have won and covered their last seven games vs. the Bills.
The Buffalo Bills have been one of the surprise early teams in the NFL. They get a giant test on Sunday when their AFC East rival New England Patriots come to town.

CBS will broadcast at 1:00 p.m. (ET) from Ralph Wilson Stadium in Orchard Park.

The Don Best odds screen has Buffalo as big 9-point home ‘dogs, while the total has already jumped a point to 51 ½. The ‘over’ is 22-8-1 in the first two weeks, pending the Giants and Rams Monday night final.

The Bills (2-0 straight up, 1-1 against the spread) opened with a 41-7 win at Kansas City. The Chiefs seem poised for a nosedive after a playoff run last year, but it was still a great road win for Buffalo. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick had 208 passing yards, four TDs and no interceptions.

The former journeyman was equally impressive versus Oakland in Week 2, a 38-35 win as 3 ½-point home favorites. He had 264 yards passing and three more TDs, including a 6-yarder to receiver David Nelson with 14 seconds left. The Bills scored five touchdowns in five second-half possessions after trailing 21-3 at halftime.

The 73 combined points scored easily went ‘over’ the 40 ½-point total. The ‘over’ is 2-0 for Buffalo after the ‘under’ ended last year at 7-2 in the final nine (5-0 at home).

Buffalo’s top-ranked scoring offense (39.5 PPG) is very balanced with Fred Jackson (229 total yards) leading the NFL in rushing. He will keep the Patriots defense honest, while Fitzpatrick attacks their secondary which has allowed 762 passing yards in two games (31st in the NFL).

Coach Chan Gailey is thrilled to be 2-0, but has to be concerned about his own ‘D.’ It allowed Jason Campbell to throw for 323 yards last week and Oakland thought it had the game-winning drive with 3:41 left. It did a much better job against Matt Cassel (119 passing yards) the week before.

The Bills have been showing multiple looks on defense. Having veteran linebackers like Shawne Merriman, Chris Kelsay, Nick Barnett, Andra Davis and Kirk Morrison help the effort, but the run defense is still allowing 119.5 YPG (ranked 21st) and 5.0 yards per carry (ranked 28th).

New England (2-0 SU and ATS) followed up a 38-24 win at Miami with a 35-21 home win over San Diego. Winning the turnover margin 4-0 was the big key. Tom Brady had 423 yards passing and his 940 two-game total is the second highest in league history.

Brady helped engineer a final touchdown drive with 1:54 left. That put the 6 ½ pointspread out of reach and also pushed the score above the 53 ½-point total. The ‘over’ is 2-0 this season and an incredible 18-3 in New England’s last 21 games.

The Patriots continue to use a no-huddle offense for large periods. It doesn’t allow the other team to substitute and lets Brady identify mismatches. Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are a great one-two punch at tight end, but the latter is likely out this week with a sprained MCL.

Hernandez’s injury likely means more touches for receivers Wes Welker and Deion Branch, who are dangerous on short patterns. Chad Ochocinco (45 yards last week) should also start to get more than the 17-18 snaps he’s been averaging.

Running backs BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead are not elite and are mostly used as a change-of-pace for the passing game. Look for Brady to have another 40-plus pass attempts this week.

The Patriots pass defense could easily be in trouble again Sunday. Devin McCourty is not the shutdown corner he was last season and safety Patrick Chung along with cornerbacks Ras-I Dowling and Kyle Arrington all got injured last game. Check the Don Best injury report for the latest on those three.

The front seven is still adjusting to the new 4-3 and while it can bring pressure, it needs to sack Fitzpatrick when it has the chance and not allow him to dump off underneath like San Diego’s Philip Rivers (15 completions to his running backs for 135 yards).

New England won in Buffalo last December, 34-3 as 9-point favorites. The team ran for 217 yards and picked off Fitzpatrick three times.

The Patriots are 7-0 SU and ATS the last seven meetings in Buffalo, with the average score 30.6-7.6. The ‘under’ is 4-1 in the last five games in Buffalo.

Weather should be very nice, especially for Buffalo, mostly sunny and in the 60s.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-19-2011, 11:15 PM

Week 3 Openers

September 19, 2011

Perceptions change in a heartbeat when following the NFL season as opinions are varied from week to week. That's no exception following two games with underrated clubs like Buffalo starting at 2-0 while Kansas City and Seattle have looked awful at 0-2. Looking ahead to Week 3 lines, we'll compare several of the changes made by oddsmakers after the M Resort released openers for every regular season game back in July.

Lions at Vikings

July opener: Minnesota -2
Sunday opener: Detroit -3 ½

These two NFC North rivals are going in opposite directions after the Lions have begun 2-0 with two convincing victories. The Vikings were on their way to a victory over Tampa Bay after building a 17-0 lead at halftime, but the Bucs reeled off 24 unanswered points to stun Minnesota. Detroit is listed as a road favorite for the first time since 2008, but the stunning stat is the 0-7 SU/ATS mark since 1997 when laying points on the highway. In fact, the last time the Lions covered as a road favorite was under Wayne Fontes in 1996 at Tampa Bay.

Broncos at Titans

July opener: Tennessee -4 ½
Sunday opener: Tennessee -7

The Titans pulled off a shocker in Week 2 by knocking off the Ravens, 26- 13 as 5 ½-point home underdogs. Tennessee goes for a 2-1 start as Denver invades LP Field coming off a two-point victory over Cincinnati. Former Vegas oddsmaker and current VegasInsider.com handicapper Micah Roberts explains the shift from the original pointspread in July, "Before the season started, you might have thought there was value with Denver getting +4 ½ at Tennessee, but that all changed with two good defensive performances by the Titans and two sluggish games by the Broncos. The Titans win over the Ravens appears to be more about the Steelers hangover and playing flat."

Jaguars at Panthers

July opener: Jacksonville -2 ½
Sunday opener: Carolina -3 ½

One of the bigger swings from the summer numbers comes in this interconference matchup with the two clubs that entered the league in 1995. The Jaguars' quarterback situation is in flux after Luke McCown threw four interceptions in Sunday's blowout loss at the Jets. Now, head coach Jack Del Rio has to decide between McCown and rookie Blaine Gabbert, who completed five of six passes for 52 yards. On the other side, this past April's top pick Cam Newton has impressed with two games throwing for over 400 yards, but the Panthers are 0-2 out of the chute.

Chiefs at Chargers

July opener: San Diego -6
Sunday opener: San Diego -14 ½

Kansas City was expected to crash down to Earth this season, but certainly not in this fashion. The Chiefs have been outscored 89-10 in losses to the Bills and Lions, while losing star running back Jamaal Charles for the remainder of the season to a torn ACL on Sunday. The Chargers return home after getting sliced up by Tom Brady and the Patriots, 35-21 as 6 ½-point 'dogs, as San Diego owns a 6-3 ATS record the last nine instances as a nine-point home favorite or more.

Roberts provides an interesting spin on San Diego, "The only question is why the line isn't higher than 14 ½. For all the greatness most of us feel the Chargers have, there is that X factor that doesn't show up in statistics which is playing to the level of their opponents. They should have lost to the Vikings and were overmatched at New England. They look like the same sad group as 2010, but without Darren Sproles."

Steelers at Colts

July opener: Indianapolis - 1 ½
Sunday opener: Pittsburgh -10 ½

This line has moved for obvious reasons with Peyton Manning out and the Colts' offense turning into a complete train-wreck. Indianapolis has scored just two touchdowns in the first two weeks of the season, while facing a Pittsburgh offense that tossed a shutout over hapless Seattle. The Steelers are 0-3 ATS the last three times when laying at least 9 ½ points away from Heinz Field, including two SU losses at Cleveland and Kansas City in 2009.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-20-2011, 08:11 PM

Week 3 Preview: Lions at Vikings

DETROIT LIONS (2-0)

at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (0-2)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Detroit -3.5, Total: 44.5

Although Detroit hasn’t won in Minnesota in 13 years, the Lions are the favorite as they travel to the Metrodome on Sunday.

The Lions haven’t left Minnesota with a win since 1997. They’ll need to do it on Sunday if they’re going to prove themselves as a true playoff contender. Detroit did finish its 2010 season with a 20-13 win over the Vikings at home, a game in which it shut down Adrian Peterson (14 carries, 31 yards) and outgained Minnesota 357-214. The Lions will be able to concentrate on stopping Peterson, as the Vikes passing game has shown no signs of life with Donovan McNabb under center. After 39 passing yards in San Diego Week 1, McNabb threw for a middling 228 against a weak Tampa secondary in last week’s loss. Expect DETROIT, which has outscored its two opponents 75-23 this year, to continue rolling with its seventh straight victory.

The FoxSheets provides a three-star trend backing the Lions:

DETROIT is 12-2 ATS (85.7%, +9.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 23.1, OPPONENT 19.0 - (Rating = 3*).

Matthew Stafford is the biggest reason the Lions are leading the NFC in scoring. He has thrown for 599 yards, 7 TD and 2 INT this year. Three players already have over 100 receiving yards, including Calvin Johnson who has four touchdowns. Johnson has been hampered by an ankle injury, but has been playing through the pain. TE Brandon Pettigrew suffered a shoulder injury in last week’s win, but he will also suit up on Sunday. The ground game has been adequate with 215 yards, but the team’s top three ball carriers (Jahvid Best, Jerome Harrison and Keiland Williams) have averaged 3.2 yards per carry combined. The Lions lead the NFL with a +6 turnover margin and rank seventh in the league in total defense (291 YPG).

For Minnesota to get its first victory, the team will rely on Adrian Peterson, who leads the NFC with 218 rushing yards. Despite being shut down the last time he faced Detroit, Peterson has 814 rushing yards and 7 TD in eight career games against the Lions, with six of those being Vikings wins. Despite McNabb’s struggles this year, he has thoroughly enjoyed playing Detroit. In three career games against the Lions, McNabb has completed 68.4% of his passes for 947 yards, 7 TD and 1 INT. The Vikings could be without CB Chris Cook, who exited in the second quarter of last game with a groin injury. The team’s primary nickelback is listed as questionable.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-20-2011, 08:16 PM

Week 3 Preview: Patriots at Bills

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (2-0)

at BUFFALO BILLS (2-0)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: New England -9.5, Total: 51.5

The Patriots look to defeat Buffalo for the 16th straight time when they travel to Ralph Wilson Stadium for Sunday’s AFC East matchup.

Usually this game is a mismatch on paper, but the Bills have flashed quite an impressive offense in their two wins, scoring a league-best 79 points. Nobody has moved the ball like New England this year, as the Patriots already have 1,126 total yards, which are 174 more than any other team in the NFL. Although the Bills haven’t beaten the Patriots since the 2003 season opener, they have kept their September matchups close, going 3-1 ATS with one-possession losses in the three covers. The Pats defense is flawed, ranked second-to-last in yardage (479 YPG), so the Bills should keep the final margin within reach with another big day from their offense.

The FoxSheets provides a three-star trend supporting BUFFALO as the pick:

BUFFALO is 29-9 ATS (76.3%, +19.1 Units) after a win by 3 or less points since 1992. The average score was BUFFALO 23.1, OPPONENT 19.1 - (Rating = 3*).

New England QB Tom Brady has been out of this world this season, completing 72% of his passes for 940 yards, 7 TD and 1 INT (off a deflection). Four Patriots already have at least 165 receiving yards, with three of those players tallying at least two touchdowns. One of those receivers is TE Aaron Hernandez, who is expected to miss Sunday’s game with a knee injury. That should mean more targets for TE Rob Gronkowski who is averaging 17.2 yards per catch with three touchdowns. The Patriots have done a nice job running the football as BenJarvus Green-Ellis has 104 yards (4.3 YPC) and two scores.

The Bills have enough talent in their secondary to possibly contain Tom Brady, but allowing 323 passing yards to Jason Campbell and the Raiders last week, without a single sack, is a bad sign. Like Brady, Buffalo QB Ryan Fitzpatrick also has 7 TD and 1 INT this year. He has not played well against New England though, with 3 TD and 6 INT in three career meetings. Second-year WR David Nelson emerged as the go-to receiver against Oakland, catching 10 passes for 83 yards and the game-winning touchdown. With Roscoe Parrish (ankle) placed on IR Tuesday, Nelson will continue to be targeted often as the team’s best slot receiver. Last year’s No. 1 wideout, Steve Johnson has not been 100 percent because of a bothersome groin injury, but he is expected to play Sunday. But not to be overlooked is RB Fred Jackson who leads the NFL with 229 rushing yards. Jackson is averaging 6.5 yards per carry, as he already has four 20-yard gains this season. The running game could suffer a bit without OT Kraig Urbek, who is out 2-to-4 weeks after sustaining a knee injury last week.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-20-2011, 08:23 PM

Vick In Doubt For Eagles Against NY Giants

The Eagles have won and covered their last six meetings with New York.
The health status of Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Michael Vick is the big question heading into Sunday’s home game against the New York Giants.

The contest is currently off the board on the Don Best odds screen. Fox will broadcast this NFC East rivalry at 1:00 p.m. (ET) from Lincoln Financial Field.

Vick is listed as questionable after suffering a ‘slight concussion’ in the 35-31 loss at Atlanta on Sunday night. The injury is also giving coach Andy Reid a headache as backups Vince Young and Mike Kafka are a big downgrade.

Kafka was thought to be third-string once Young was signed in the offseason. However, the second-year product from Northwestern is more familiar with the offense and Young (hamstring injury) hasn’t dressed or even practiced much the last two weeks.

Kafka was 7-of-9 for 72 yards in relief of Vick last week. He drove Philly down to the Atlanta 22-yard line late in the fourth quarter, but was stopped on a fourth-down try when Jeremy Maclin dropped a catchable ball.

The Eagles (1-1 straight up, 1-1 against the spread) will be making their home debut after also playing at St. Louis (31-13 win) in the opening week. The ‘over’ is 2-0 in the first two games, but that was with the dangerous Vick mostly leading the charge.

Reid will not abandon his normal offensive philosophy. He’ll still want to get the ball to receivers Maclin and DeSean Jackson, and running back LeSean McCoy should only see a small uptick on his 16.5 average carries.

Philadelphia’s defense is 13th in the NFL in total yards (326.5 YPG) and has nine sacks (ranked second). However, it allowed Atlanta to rally with two TDs in the fourth quarter. A 61-yard scamper from Michael Turner was the big blow on the go-ahead drive.

This is the first home game for defensive free agent additions Nnamdi Asomugha, Cullen Jenkins and Jason Babin. They have all played well, with the linebackers the real weakness of the defense, especially with rookie Casey Matthews in the middle.

The Eagles went just 4-4 SU (3-5 ATS) at home in the regular season last year. They then walked off losers there in the playoffs, 21-16 to Green Bay as 1-point favorites.

The Giants (1-1 SU and ATS) are playing on a short week, beating St. Louis 28-16 as 7-point home favorites on Monday Night Football. St. Louis had more total yards (367-300), but had to settle for three short field goals and also had a fumble returned for a touchdown.

Quarterback Eli Manning only needed to throw for 200 yards against St. Louis after having 268 in the 28-14 opening loss at Washington. He has two TDs versus two picks on the year and a below average 80.5 quarterback rating.

The inconsistent Manning may have fewer weapons on Sunday with receivers Mario Manningham (concussion) and Domenik Hixon (knee) questionable. That could leave Hakeem Nicks and backup Victor Cruz on the outside against the elite Eagles’ cornerbacks.

Coach Tom Coughlin will have to feature the running back tandem of Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. Bradshaw and tight end Jake Ballard should also get some throws matched up against the Eagles linebackers. Getting back receiving tight end Travis Beckum would help, but he’s also questionable (hamstring injury).

The Giants defense suffered numerous injuries in the preseason and allowed both Rex Grossman (305) and Sam Bradford (331) to go over 300 passing yards. Facing Kafka would alleviate some of that concern and the unit wouldn’t have to worry about him scrambling like Vick.

The Giants were 2 ½-point road betting favorites in the Washington loss after going 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS away last year.

The Eagles have dominated this heated rivalry of late, going 6-0 SU and ATS. They picked off Manning three times in a 27-17 home win in November. The December game in the Big Apple was an improbable 31-10 fourth-quarter comeback, winning 38-31.

Weather is expected to be rainy this week, but clear up for Sunday and be in the 70s to boot.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-20-2011, 08:25 PM

Winless Miami Dolphins Visit Cleveland Browns

The Miami Dolphins will head to the road in search of their first victory of the season when they visit the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. The Dolphins lost their first two games at home to a pair of unbeaten teams while the Browns are hoping to build off their first win of the year at Indianapolis last week.

Game time is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by CBS.

Cleveland opened as a 1-point favorite according to the Don Best odds screen, but early betting has already moved the line as much as two points for the home team to -3. The total opened at 40 and has jumped as high as 41 so far.

The Browns (1-1) lost their season opener at home to Cincinnati 27-17 but rebounded last Sunday with a 27-19 victory at Indianapolis. They covered as 1-point road favorites and saw the total go ‘over’ 39 ½ points.

Cleveland put together a much more balanced offensive effort against the Colts, as running back Peyton Hillis rushed for 94 yards on 27 carries and scored two touchdowns while quarterback Colt McCoy passed for 211 yards and one touchdown without an interception.

McCoy had thrown 40 times against the Bengals and completed 19, but he was much more efficient vs. Indy with 32 attempts and 22 completions. Hillis carried the ball 17 times for 57 yards in the opener and was held out of the end zone.

The Dolphins (0-2) struggled offensively in a 23-13 home loss to Houston last Sunday after showing positive signs despite falling to New England 38-24 the previous week. Miami QB Chad Henne reverted back to his inconsistent and inaccurate form against the Texans, completing just 12-of-30 passes for 170 yards with one touchdown and one interception.

Henne had completed 30-of-49 passes for a career-high 416 yards with two passing touchdowns and another on the ground in the season opener.

The only real positive for the Dolphins in the defeat to Houston was the play of rookie RB Daniel Thomas, who picked up 107 yards rushing on 18 carries. Starting RB Reggie Bush had a disappointing performance with six carries for 18 yards and one catch for three yards.

Miami is an underdog for the third time in as many games and has lost the last three meetings with Cleveland both straight up and against the spread. The Browns edged the Dolphins on the road last year 13-10 as 5 ½-point underdogs behind former QB Jake Delhomme, who threw a touchdown pass to Benjamin Watson while kicker Phil Dawson added three field goals, including the game-winner as time expired.

Henne also helped the opposition by throwing three interceptions, although he was without leading receiver Brandon Marshall due to a hamstring injury.

Scattered showers could cross through the Cleveland area on Sunday with the high temperature expected to reach 67 degrees.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-20-2011, 08:28 PM

New York Jets Trek West To Battle Oakland Raiders

The New York Jets hope to stay undefeated as they travel cross-country to play the Oakland Raiders in their first road game of the season.

CBS will televise the matchup, which has a scheduled kickoff of 4:05 p.m. (ET). The Don Best odds screen currently lists the Jets as a 3 ½-point road favorite.

New York (2-0) followed up a shaky season opener against Dallas with a dominant performance over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. The Jets easily covered as an 8 ½-point favorite in the 32-3 win as the defense completely shut Luke McCown and the Jags' passing game down while forcing four interceptions.

The 2-0 record has to have the Jets feeling good, but the offense has left a bit to be desired. Mark Sanchez has thrown three interceptions in two games, and starting running back Shonn Greene has rushed for only 75 yards on 26 carries.

They will get an interesting road test this week against a Raiders squad that appears to be a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde type of team following the first two weeks of the 2011 campaign.

Oakland (1-1) threw conventional wisdom out of the window last week. A team known for its struggles on offense, especially in the passing game, had 323 passing yards and two passing touchdowns in a week where their three starting wide receivers and their starting tight end didn’t play.

But even stranger things happened on the defensive side. After a dominating effort in the first half that saw the Raiders take a 21-3 lead into the locker room, the wheels fell off completely as the defense gave up 35 points in the second half to lose 38-35.

Oakland did cover as a 3½-point underdog to improve to 2-0 against the spread.

After starting the season with two games on the road, Oakland returns home to face one of the toughest teams in the NFL. The Raiders will need their best effort on both sides of the ball, and they’ll need it for all four quarters.

Recent trends for both teams suggest that the total has a great chance of going ‘over’ in this game. Eleven of New York’s last 12 road games and six of Oakland’s last seven home games have gone ‘over’ the posted total.

The total for this contest has been set at 41.

The Jets are 13-4 SU in their last 17 road games, but just 3-8 SU the last 11 trips to Oakland. That said, they’ve only played twice in Oakland since 2003, and cruised to a 38-0 victory the last time they came to town (2009) as the defense forced four turnovers.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-20-2011, 08:32 PM

Bengals Host 49ers In NFL Betting Action

This Sunday from Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, the Bengals (1-1) will host the San Francisco 49ers (1-1) in an interconferece NFL matchup. The game can be found in some markets on FOX beginning at 1:00 p.m. (ET).

Opening numbers on the Don Best odds screen saw Cincinnati a mere 1-point favorite but that number has already been bet up to 2½. The total has moved as well, starting out at 40 and moving up to 41.

San Francisco fell victim last week to one of the best stories of this young season. Though they were up 24-14 in the fourth quarter, Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo came back in the game after suffering a cracked rib and punctured lung and eventually led Dallas to a 27-24 overtime win.

Despite the loss, the Bay Area is still happy with their rookie head coach Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh was the only new coach to lead his team to a victory in Week 1.

What 49er fans may not be pleased with is the same old story at QB in Alex Smith. While Romo was out of the game in the third quarter, Smith and the San Fran offense failed to capitalize on the opportunity in their first three possessions of the period. They went three-and-out twice, and Smith threw an interception just three plays following a Dallas INT from backup QB Jon Kitna.

While the No. 1 overall selection in the 2005 NFL Draft has proven time and again he is not the answer, don’t expect to see rookie QB Colin Kaepernick. It would sure be an interesting storyline, however, considering who was picked just one spot ahead of him in the second round of this year’s draft.

Andy Dalton has made both starts for Cincinnati and has played very, very well. Through his first two weeks of NFL action, Dalton has thrown three TDs and zero picks. Not only that, but he has posted a QB rating over 100 in both games.

His fellow rookie teammate, wide receiver A.J. Green out of Georgia, shined in the 24-22 loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 2. Green caught 10 balls for 124 yards and a TD. That wasn’t just any TD; it was a sideline, toe-tapping beauty. This connection could become deadly.

This Bengals offense can run smoothly even with a couple of rookies playing key roles. They were hit with the loss of their nice slot receiver Jordan Shipley (knee injury) for the season, however.

San Francisco really needs to get running back Frank Gore going. With a healthy dose of 42 carries over the first two weeks, Gore is averaging a lackluster 2.5 yards per rush. He will get a chance against a Cincy ‘D’ that surrendered 101 yards to Broncos RB Willis McGahee.

With receivers Michael Crabtree (foot) and Braylon Edwards (knee) in question for Sunday, Gore’s performance becomes even more critical.

It’s tough to really give an edge to either defense. The Bengals have surrendered fewer points, total yards, and passing yards than San Fran, but the Niners lead the NFL in fewest rushing yards allowed.

Cincinnati has won its last four September games; San Francisco has gone 1-4 against the spread over the last five road games.

Early weather reports call for a chance of rain in Cincinnati this Sunday with temperatures around 65 degrees at game time

**StarDust Bum** · 09-21-2011, 01:53 AM

NFL Spread Sheet: Sportsbooks battle over trend

One week could be a fluke. Does two constitute a trend?

Either way, a 74 percent run sends a message, and oddsmakers heard it loud and clear.

They’re adjusting in a big way after over bettors went 11-5 in Week 2 on the heels of going 12-3-1 in Week 1.

NFL teams are averaging 493 net passing yards per game, which would shatter last year’s record of 443 net passing yards per game.

“It’s like it’s turned into nothing but a passing league,” MGM Mirage sportsbook manager Jeff Stoneback told ***********. “Some of the rule changes, where you can hardly touch the receivers, have added to it. We thought with the new kickoff rule it would keep scoring down a bit, but obviously we were wrong there, at least after two weeks.”

Now oddsmakers are responding. Six Week 3 spreads sit at 44.5 or higher, including eye-popping 53s on New England-Buffalo and Houston-New Orleans.

“The extreme overs in Weeks 1 and 2 had a little to do with the oddsmakers just not setting the lines high enough,” handicapper Steve Merril told ***********. “Average NFL scores have been around the 42-43 point range the past few years but it appears they might be a bit higher this season with the more prolific passing attacks.”

Week 1 scores got a huge boost from eight kick and punt return TDs. Week 2 produced lots of points with little special teams help.

Wynn Las Vegas sportsbook manager John Avello opened Pats-Bills at 52 -- at least three points higher than he would have opened it just a couple weeks ago.

BOOKS TAKE A HIT

The Patriots, Lions and Texans drew the most action from bettors last week, and all three favorites cashed.

New England handed the books their biggest loss.

And Detroit is a team that “gives us heartburn,” Avello said. “They’re a public team and have a pretty good following. People from the Detroit area have been sticking with this team for years, if they win one or two games. Now they have a team that could be a contender and others are jumping on that bandwagon too.

“Nobody is going to go against this team right now.”

Before the season, Avello said, he envisioned the Vikings being favored at home against Detroit. Now the Lions are laying 3.5.

HOW BAD ARE SEAHAWKS?

Consider that Seattle (0-2 SU, ATS) has ventured inside its opponents’ 20 twice in two games. That’s it. The Seahawks never got past the Steelers’ 25 on Sunday and were shut out for the 11th time in franchise history.

What’s more alarming is this comment from coach Pete Carroll to the Seattle Times: “I thought we’d be able to move along faster. But we’ve done what we’ve had to do. We’ll continue to push it.”

I’d hate to see this offense when coaches are not “pushing it.”

Seattle, which just lost guard Robert Gallery for four to six weeks, is getting 3 at home against Arizona.

REPLAY RULE NEEDS FIX

The NFL decreed this season that every scoring play will get a booth review. But are the guys upstairs napping?

New Orleans RB Darren Sproles clearly stepped out of bounds at the 1 but was awarded a TD against the Bears. Because of the new rule, Chicago coach Lovie Smith could not challenge.

The 12-yard TD catch midway through the fourth quarter sealed the Saints’ 30-13 win.

STREAKS

The Lions have covered 11 straight, including preseason, and gone 10-1 SU in that span.

The Chiefs have lost eight straight, including preseason, going 0-7-1 ATS.

The Patriots have posted a 12-1 O/U mark in their last 13 regular-season and playoff games.

The Seahawks have gone 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five road games.

RAMS’ RED-ZONE WOES

Rams backers have to be sick after watching a supposedly up-and-coming team start 0-2 SU and ATS. But you could see this train wreck coming.
St. Louis botched its draft. Trying to please new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, the Rams took pass catchers in Rounds 2-4: TE Lance Kendricks, WR Austin Pettis, WR Greg Salas.

Kendricks and Salas lead the team in drops, and none of the three has breakaway speed. Meanwhile, the Rams neglected to draft a competent backup to RB Steven Jackson.

So QB Sam Bradford figures to spend 2011 like he did 2010 -- throwing into tiny windows, begging for a running game and trudging off the field to watch the field-goal unit come on. In Monday’s 28-16 loss to the Giants, St. Louis marched inside New York’s 10 three times in the first half and came away with nine points.

WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME…

Detroit, Buffalo and Washington last started a combined 6-0 in the strike year of 1982, notes columnist Tom Robinson of the Virginian-Pilot.

“Things really do cycle around the NFL,” he wrote, “even if they take nearly 30 years.”

**StarDust Bum** · 09-21-2011, 07:34 PM

NFL Tech Trends - Week 3

September 21, 2011

Sunday, Sept. 25 (1:00 p.m. ET)

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

If Cincy favored, note Marvin Lewis 2-12 vs. spread in role since 2009, 6-20 since 2007. Slight to 49ers, based on extended Cincy chalk numbers.

Belichick has owned Bills since losing 31-0 in 2003 opener, winning 15 in a row since (10-4-1 vs. line). Patriots have really dominated at Orchard Park since 2003, 6-0-1 vs. line in the seven games since. Belichick also "over" 18-3 last 21 since late 2009. Patriots and "over," based on series and Belichick "totals" trends.

Saints just 11-20-1 vs. line last 31 on board since mid 2009. NO 7-15-1 last 23 in reg. season against spread. Kubiak "over" 7-3 away since late '09. Texans and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Eagles have won and covered last six in series. G-Men 2-7 vs. line last 9 on board since late LY. Coughlin only 2-3 as road dog LY after solid 10-4 mark in role previous three years. Eagles, based on team trends.

Sparano 18-6 vs. line last 24 on road, also "under" 15-6 last 21 on road (opposite of home "over" trends). Browns 2-8 vs. line since mid 2010. Dolphins and "under," based on Sparano trends.

Broncos entered 2011 just 4-9 last 13 on board as visitor. Titans only 7-13 last 20 as chalk, however. Tenn. "over" 12-7-1 last 20 at LP Field, Broncos "over" 18-5 last 23 since late 2009. "Over" and Slight to Broncos, based on team and "totals" trends.

Counting preseason, Lions have won last 9 and covered last 10 games on board. Note that last six in this series "under" as well. Lions and "under," based team and "totals" trends.

The two '95 expansionists meet. Jags "over" 7-3 last 10 on road. Panthers only 5 covers last 18 on board, 3-6 vs. line at home since LY. Slight to Jags and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Sunday, Sept. 25 (4:05 p.m. ET)

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Norv just 4-9-1 vs. line in first three games of season since arriving at SD in 2007. Norv also "under" last 4 at home. Slight to Chiefs and "under," based on Norv trends.

Heidi Game revisited, 43 years later! Rex Ryan 13-4 vs. points last 17 on road. Rexy also "over" 16-6 last 21 since late '09. Raiders "over" 12-6 since LY. "Over" and Jets, based on "totals" and team trends.

Note Rams "under" 14-6 last 20 since late '09 for Spagnuolo. Rams 7-4 last 11 as dog as well. "Under," based on "totals" trends.

Sunday, Sept. 25 (4:15 p.m. ET)

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Road team has covered last five in series. Bucs 3-16-1 vs. line last 20 at Raymond James Stadium. Falcons lost at Chicago in opener but still 14-8 vs. line last 22 on road. Falcs also "over" 5-1 last 6 on road. Falcons and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Pete Carroll won and covered both vs. Whisenhunt LY after Cards had won and covered previous 4 in series. "Overs" 7-3 last 10 in series. Pete Carroll "over" 14-5-1 since arriving LY. "Over" and Seahawks, based on "totals" and team trends.

Pack had covered 4 straight vs. Bears prior to LY before 2-1 SU and 1-2 vs. line in 2010 vs. Chicago. Pack 12-5 vs. line last 17 on road. Last seven in series "under" as well. "Under," based on "totals" trends.

Sunday, Sept. 25 (8:20 p.m. ET)

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Tomlin only 8-14 as road chalk since taking over Steelers in '07. Slight to Colts, based on extended Tomlin road chalk marks.

Monday, Sept. 26 (8:30 p.m. ET)

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Skins covered both LY and last three in series. Shan 5-2 vs. line last 7 away in 2010. Jerry Jones just 1-5 as home chalk LY. Note Cowboys "over" 15-3 since 2010. Redskins, based on team trends. Slight to "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-21-2011, 07:35 PM

Ravens In Bounce-Back Mode At St. Louis Rams

Sunday’s total in St. Louis for the Rams, Ravens clash is 41½ points.
Week 3 of the National Football League season kicks off this Sunday and on the late-game slate will be the St. Louis Rams (0-2) hosting the Baltimore Ravens (1-1) at the Edward Jones Dome. Game time is set for 4:05 p.m. (ET) with CBS carrying the coverage in some markets.

Baltimore opened as 3½-point road favorites on the Don Best odds screen and that number has moved up slightly to four. The total has been static at 41½.

What a disappointment last week was for the Ravens. After smashing the Steelers in Week 1, they followed up that performance by laying down against the Tennessee Titans, losing 26-13. The offensive line allowed quarterback Joe Flacco to get hit all day which led to some pedestrian numbers for the fourth-year pro.

This is a team, however, that did not have two losses in a row all last season. In fact, the Ravens lost in Week 2 on the road to Cincinnati in 2010 and rebounded in Week 3. Head coach Jim Harbaugh and company have not incurred consecutive losses since Oct. 2009.

St. Louis has been affected by key injuries which have directly led to the Rams' winless start. Star running back Steven Jackson is still uncertain for this Sunday with a quad injury and QB Sam Bradford played Monday night against the Giants despite suffering from a hurt finger.

The Rams appear to be a team with a solid defense with their one major problem on the offensive side of the ball: Scoring touchdowns once they reach the red zone.

Once they get inside the 20, they cannot seem to finish the job. Settling for field goals instead of touchdowns was the difference in the Rams’ Week 2 loss.

St. Louis also has poor numbers in another critical facet of offense, third down. So far through two games they have converted just 7-of-29 third down tries.

While Sam Bradford could have a promising future, he has lost offensive weapons to injury left and right. One receiver did step up against New York and that was Denario Alexander who came up with some nice catches for big plays. Former Jaguar Mike Sims-Walker was also consistent that night grabbing six balls for 92 yards.

Baltimore’s ‘D’ will surely be a tough way for the Rams to get over their offense inefficiencies. Matt Hasselbeck tore up the Ravens’ through the air last week but again, Baltimore appears to be a team that bounces back well after losses.

In their last six games following a loss against the spread they are 5-1 ATS.

As for Flacco, he may be without his new toy, WR Lee Evans who is questionable nursing a nagging ankle injury.

The Rams have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five contests as an underdog. Totals going ‘over’ appear to be trending around the whole league and the ‘over’ is 4-0 in the Ravens last four games following a straight-up loss

**StarDust Bum** · 09-21-2011, 07:38 PM

Broncos Face Familiar Spot At Tennessee Titans

The Broncos were 6½-point underdogs last year when they beat the Titans.
The last time Denver trekked to LP Field for a battle vs. Tennessee last October 3, the odds seemed stacked against the 6½-point underdog Broncos. Yet despite generating only 19 rush yards for the entire afternoon and trailing entering the fourth quarter, Denver summoned a late surge, scoring the last 10 points of the game for a surprising 26-20 win.

Almost one year later, the Broncos are tasked with a similar assignment in Nashville against the host Titans for a 1:00 p.m. (ET) kickoff on Sunday. And, like last October, Tennessee is again favored by 6 ½ to 7 points at the various Las Vegas sports books. The posted ‘total’ is a solid 42 around town.

Things are a bit different this year for both sides after each underwent coaching changes in the offseason. The adjustments have been more pronounced in Denver, where ex-Carolina coach John Fox was tasked with ridding the Broncos of the stench of the Josh McDaniels regime, which was aborted by owner Pat Bowlen even before last year was complete.

By comparison, the Titans have undergone a more-seamless transition to their new coach Mike Munchak, a longtime offensive line stalwart for the franchise from its Houston days and promoted from the staff of the deposed Jeff Fisher after 2010's dysfunctional 6-10 ride.

An interesting development in last year’s game was the surprising inability of Tennessee’s 2009 NFL leading rusher Chris Johnson to dominate action as expected, especially considering Denver’s well-publicized weakness vs. the run. Nonetheless, the Broncos corralled Johnson, allowing him only 53 yards on 19 carries en route to the mild upset.

Johnson’s presence again figures to play an important part in Sunday’s encounter, although it should be noted that he has appeared a bit rusty in the first two regular-season games vs. the Jags and Ravens, gaining only 77 yards (and a puny 2.3 ypc). Most AFC South insiders believe this is a result of his preseason holdout and late arrival the week before the Jacksonville opener.

Conventional wisdom suggests that Johnson will soon regain his 2009-2010 form; the Broncos can only hope it waits another week.

Not that Johnson has failed to impact proceedings in the early going, particularly last week vs. the Ravens. Although gaining only 53 yards on 24 carries, Johnson provided an effective diversion for new QB Matt Hasselbeck, who completed 30 of 42 throws for a whopping 358 yards vs. the miserly Baltimore defense.

Simply, the Ravens, and all Titan foes, still have to pay attention to Johnson who has amassed 3370 rush yards and scored 28 TDs the previous two seasons combined, and whose presence continues to preoccupy schemes of enemy stop units.

Shrewd AFC onlookers also consider the Titans a team to watch as long as Hasselbeck can stay in one piece. The former Packer and Seahawk, with Super Bowl experience from his Seattle days, appears a vast upgrade from the Kerry Collins-Vince Young Titan mess of the past two years that contributed to Fisher’s ouster. Hasselbeck has also not wasted any time getting familiar with wideouts Kenny Britt and Nate Washington, either, as that pair has combined for 27 catches in the first two weeks.

Meanwhile, Denver is feeling fortunate to escape its opening two-game homestand with a split against the Raiders and Bengals. Unfortunately for Fox, the same sort of injury bugaboo that haunted the Broncos in McDaniels’ final season seems to have returned, as the Denver casualty list is the most extensive in the league. It’s been key performers going down, too, including the core of the defense, with CB Champ Bailey, DE Elvis Dumervil, LB D.J. Williams and DT Ty Warren already missing action and questionable to return this week.

The Bronco offense has been missing some important pieces as well, with RB Knowshon Moreno and wideouts Brandon Lloyd and Eddie Royal among the infirmed. So thin has Fox become at the WR spot that he signed ex-Bengal Quan Cosby to bolster the ranks this week.

Still, Denver proved resourceful last week in the narrow win vs. Cincy and might have uncovered a new weapon in the process. That would be second-year Minnesota WR Eric Decker, who has quickly emerged as one of QB Kyle Orton’s favorite targets as well as a feared return threat. Decker’s eight catches lead all Bronco receivers, and his 90-yard score in the opener vs. Oakland was the Broncos’ first punt return TD since 2007.

Meanwhile, Moreno’s absence was somewhat mitigated last week by the effort of newly-acquired RB Willis McGahee, who adds a more-physical dimension to the Denver infantry and banged out a bruising 101 yards on the ground against the Bengals. That ground diversion will be important this week to keep the pressure off of the immobile Orton, who has already been sacked seven times in the first two weeks.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-21-2011, 07:39 PM

Detroit Lions Rare Favorites at Minnesota Vikings

The Lions are favored by 3½ points with Sunday’s total set at 45.
How long has it been since the Detroit Lions (2-0) were favored at Minnesota (0-2)? Well, Walter Cronkite was still hosting the CBS Evening News and Anwar Sadat was still President of Egypt...and the Vikings were still playing their home games at old Metropolitan Stadium in Bloomington.

Not to mention still employing a straight-on kicker.

Yes, it’s been a long time since September 20, 1981, when the Lions were laying 3½ points on the road to the Vikes. Detroit, coached by Monte Clark and featuring RB Billy Sims, lost that one by a 26-24 count thanks to a late field goal by Minnesota’s Rick Danmeier, one of the last of the straight-away place kickers.

For the first time since, and the first time ever at the Metrodome (which opened in 1982), Detroit is laying points at Minnesota for Sunday’s kickoff at 1:00 p.m. (ET). Most Las Vegas betting shops have posted the Lions as 3½-point favorites...just as they were 30 years ago at the old Met. Totals on the game are at 45 at the majority of Las Vegas books.

Detroit, however, is feeling pretty good about itself these days and confident it will not meet the same fate as its predecessors in Honolulu Blue and Silver 30 years ago at Bloomington. Not only are the Lions at 2-0 for the first time since 2007, but they haven’t scored this many points (75) in their first two games since way back in 1970, when a Joe Schmidt-coached Detroit bunch put 78 points on the board in routs of the Packers and Bengals to open the first post-merger campaign.

Confident, indeed; counting the preseason, the Lions have now won their last 10 games dating to late in the 2010 campaign, as well as covering the spread 11 times in a row. Safe to say this bunch has gotten used to winning as it matures into a powerhouse for shrewd third-year coach Jim Schwartz.

Meanwhile, things are hardly as promising at the Metrodome where the Vikings continue to look like a team in transition. Though competitive in the first two games, Minnesota suffered late defeats on both occasions vs. the Chargers and Bucs. In neither occasion were the contributions of the wondrous Adrian Peterson (already at 213 rush yards) enough to stave off defeat.

Moreover, veteran QB Donovan McNabb continues to perform as if he’s well past his sell-by date. Unwilling, or unable, to look downfield, McNabb has almost solely resorted to dink passes, so uncomfortable is he with his wide receiver corps. Running back Percy Harvin has been McNabb’s favorite early target with nine catches, although those amounted to only 83 yards in the first two games.

The lone Minnesota wideout with more than one reception is Michael Jenkins with six, and those have been worth less than 10 yards per catch.

Making matters more ominous for the Purple Bunch is a robust Lions front seven led by Nebraska’s irrepressible second-year DT Ndamukong Suh. Don’t be fooled by the 151 rush yards generated against Detroit last week by the Chiefs, who picked up much of that total long after the game had been decided. A more accurate barometer of the Lions' defensive prowess came at Tampa Bay in Week 1, when the Bucs were held to just 56 yards on the ground and didn’t score an offensive touchdown until the final two minutes of the game...still the only TD allowed by Schwartz’s stop unit this season.

And given the new-found offensive prowess of the Lions, investors can rest a bit easier laying a few points with them, even on the road. Especially with QB Matthew Stafford on song and already having fired seven TDs in two weeks (a pace that would have him at 56 TD passes for the entire season).

Stafford now has another target to go along with established targets Nate Burleson and Calvin Johnson, as Boise State rookie Titus Young appears to be emerging as another long-ball threat, gaining almost 18 yards per catch in the first two weeks.

In danger of falling to 0-3 for the first time since Mike Tice’s regime in 2002, the Vikes are an early candidate to go into full rebuild mode by midseason if things don’t improve soon. Which means McNabb is on the clock and has only a limited amount of time to forge a turnaround.

If there is a good piece of news for Minnesota this week, however, it’s that stalwart DT Kevin Williams has had his suspension lifted and is expected to be available for duty on Sunday.

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