The Bum's NFL Week # 2 Best Bets !

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Cowboys Face 49ers In San Francisco

The Dallas Cowboys will be looking for their first win of the season Sunday afternoon when they visit the San Francisco 49ers at Candlestick Park.

Dallas is currently listed as a 3-point road favorite on the Don Best odds screen. Sunday’s game will start at 4:05 p.m. (ET).

San Francisco (1-0) kicked the Jim Harbaugh era off on the right foot last weekend with a win over their division rival Seattle Seahawks. The final score of 33-17 made the game look a little easier than it was, as the 49ers were only up 19-17 with under four minutes to go; but two straight kick returns by Ted Ginn Jr. (one on a kickoff, one on a punt) broke the game open and allowed San Francisco to cover as a 6-point favorite.

For the 49ers to have success this week against Dallas and beyond, they will need production from Alex Smith and Frank Gore on offense. Smith was efficient and mistake-free Sunday with 15 completions on 20 attempts, but it equated to only 124 passing yards with no touchdowns (though he did rush for one touchdown). Gore had a very disappointing day with just 59 yards on 22 rushes.

To keep up with Dallas’s high-powered offense, both will have to take their game to the next level this week.

Dallas (0-1) is coming off of an extremely frustrating loss. They became the first team in Cowboys history to lose a game that they led by 14 in the fourth quarter, giving up 17 unanswered points in the final 12 minutes.

Tony Romo’s 23-for-36, 342 yard, two touchdown day looks great on paper, especially against an elite New York Jets defense; but a late interception (his only one of the game) on an extremely ill-advised throw gave the Jets their game-winning field goal, and became the story of the game.

Dallas did cover the spread as a 6-point underdog.

Romo will be fine and has proven to be a steady producer at quarterback; the bigger question moving forward is whether or not Felix Jones can handle the load of being the full-time feature back in Dallas. He managed only 44 yards on 17 carries last week.

If recent trends are any indication, the ‘over’ could be a popular play on the total in this one. Both teams went ‘over’ last week, and dating back to last season, the total has now gone ‘over’ in 13 of Dallas’ last 14 games and five of San Francisco’s last six. And in five meetings since 2000 between these two teams, the total has gone ‘over’ in every one.

The total is currently listed at 42 ½.

For Dallas, wideout Dez Bryant (quad) is questionable for Sunday’s game and cornerback Terrance Newman (groin) is doubtful. Safety Dashon Goldson is questionable for San Francisco.

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Falcons Host Eagles In Michael Vick's Return

Michael Vick makes his first return as a starting quarterback to the Georgia Dome on NBC's Sunday Night Football when the Atlanta Falcons play host to his Philadelphia Eagles. These top NFC contenders kick it off at 8:20 p.m. (ET) in Atlanta to finish off the second Sunday of the NFL betting campaign.

All of the hullabaloo over this game is going to be over Vick, and for good reason. He's a fascinating story for certain, ranging from the highs of being drafted No. 1 overall out of Virginia Tech and leading the Falcons to the NFC Championship Game down to being arrested and suspended by the NFL.

Now, Vick is back with the Eagles, and he is fresh off of a year in which he nearly (and arguably should have) won the MVP award. It's Super Bowl or bust for Philadelphia this year, and with that being said, it is going to have to go through the Falcons at some point in all likelihood to reach the Super Bowl.

For Atlanta, last week's loss against the Chicago Bears was unexpected, and it definitely put them in a precarious position. From here, the Falcons travel to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and to the Seattle Seahawks, then they take on the Green Bay Packers in a playoff rematch at the Georgia Dome in Week 5. Needless to say, this isn't an easy stretch, and the possibility is that their season might be hanging by a thread before Halloween.

That puts a ton of pressure on the back of Matt Ryan and his Falcons to get the job done against the Eagles, a team expected to make a strong run for the NFC title.

Ryan knows that this isn't going to be an easy task. The trio of defensive backs, Nnamdi Asomugha, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Asante Samuel shut down Sam Bradford and the St. Louis Rams last week, and they'll hope to do the same in Week 2.

Roddy White had a great start to his 2011 campaign last week by catching eight passes for 61 yards for Atlanta, but he was unable to get anything going vertically up the field. He might struggle again in that department this week and for the majority of the season until rookie Julio Jones emerges as a deep threat on White's opposite side.

Though this Atlanta offense did end up with 386 yards against the Bears, it didn't score an offensive touchdown, settling just for a Kroy Biermann score on defense.

The man to watch out for on the Eagles is LeSean McCoy. Last week, Atlanta allowed Matt Forte to rush for 68 yards and catch five passes for 90 yards and a TD. McCoy is built largely in the same mold as Forte is, having the ability to both run the rock and catch passes out of the backfield, and this could be a great opportunity for the former Pitt Panther to log his second straight game with at least 125 all-purpose yards.

The Falcons also know that they have to fight off some poor recent history to take down Philadelphia. They are just 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings against the Eagles, and in five of those losses, they were beaten by at least two touchdowns.

Last year, the Eagles were a fantastic road team, going 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS, and they put at least 26 points on the board in all but one of those road games. Vick was out of the lineup that week against the Tennessee Titans, and Philadelphia was beaten 37-19.

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Texans Take On Dolphins In NFL Action

Week 2 of NFL betting action continues this Sunday at Sun Life Stadium where the Miami Dolphins (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) take on the Houston Texans (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS). Kickoff is slated for 4:15 p.m. (ET) with regional television coverage set for CBS.

The Dolphins definitely have some issues coming into this one. They're already 0-1 and were embarrassed at home last week by the New England Patriots.

The loss was a brutal one, particularly for the defense. Miami conceded 622 total yards, including an enormous 517 passing yards to Tom Brady, who spent the entire game just picking this secondary apart.

Head coach Tony Sparano knows that his seat is just as hot, if not hotter, than any other coach in the league and a second straight loss at home to start the season against a playoff caliber club certainly wouldn't help his case to keep his job.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins' offense at least proved that it can hang with the big boys. Chad Henne, about the only quarterback hated by his fan base just as much as Kyle Orton is hated in Denver, did silence the critics just a bit on Monday Night Football in Week 1. He threw for 416 yards and two TDs against just one pick. Henne also rushed for 59 yards and a TD to boot.

Henne and the offense should be helped this week by the debut of rookie Daniel Thomas. The former Kansas State Wildcat was expected to come into South Beach and immediately help out this Dolphins rushing attack, which lost both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams in the offseason. Thomas missed Week 1's loss with a hamstring injury, but he is set to go this week.

Thomas' presence should lighten the load just a bit on Reggie Bush, who had 11 carries and nine receptions for a total of 94 yards with a TD in his Dolphins debut against the Patriots.

Meanwhile in Houston, there is a real sense that this is the year that the Texans finally get into the playoffs for the first time in team history. Beating the Indianapolis Colts 34-7 minus Peyton Manning last week probably isn't the biggest accomplishment in the world, but it was definitely an impressive victory nonetheless.

The offense for head coach Gary Kubiak is most certainly fluid this year, especially if Arian Foster's hamstring injury doesn't prove to be too much of a problem. Though he is still listed as questionable on the injury report, the Texans are expecting to have their leading rusher back in the fold this week.

If not, second-year man Ben Tate is going to get the call. The former Auburn Tiger missed his entire rookie campaign due to injury, but he started off this season in fine form, rushing for 116 yards and a TD against Indianapolis.

The question in Houston though, is how this new look defense is going to stand up against some of the best offenses in the league. Miami's offense isn't nearly as strong as that of the Patriots or some of the other squads that the Texans will have to go through to reach the playoffs, but this certainly is a tougher task than the one that Kerry Collins and company presented in Week 1.

The new 3-4 look proved to be fruitful right off the bat in Week 1. Rookie JJ Watt had a fumble recovery, one of the two forced turnovers on the day, and the Texans also had three sacks of Collins.

Miami has never beaten the Texans, going 0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS in five tries. This is the first time that Houston has been favored in South Beach though, getting the 2 1/2-point nod from the oddsmakers. The total has been set at 48, a number which has only been eclipsed once in the five meetings in this series.

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Bengals Take On Broncos In Denver

It only took one week – and one loss – for fans of the Denver Broncos to question whether or not the current starting quarterback of their team gives them the best chance to win this season. While the answer remains highly debatable, Kyle Orton and the Broncos (0-1) will try to bounce back from losing their season opener 23-20 to Oakland when they host the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday.

Game time is scheduled for 4:15 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by CBS. Denver opened as a 6-point favorite according to the Don Best odds screen, and bettors also seem to be doubting Orton as the line has dropped two points down to 3 ½. The total opened at 39 ½ and is up to 40.

Orton turned in a less than impressive performance on Monday night against the Raiders, as his final numbers do not begin to tell the story, much like his play over the previous two seasons. He ended up with his 10th career 300-yard game, completing 24 of 46 passes for 304 with one touchdown, one interception and one costly fumble as his team was driving for a score. His team failed to cover the spread as a 3-point favorite with the total edging ‘over’ the final number of 42 ½.

Broncos fans are already clamoring for second-year QB Tim Tebow to take over as the starter after their team fell to the Raiders for the fourth straight time. Denver could face another struggle at home against the Bengals (1-0) due to several key injuries and will be looking to avoid getting off to an 0-2 start for the first time since 1999. Leading receiver Brandon Lloyd is questionable with a groin injury while starting running back Knowshon Moreno has a sore hamstring and defensive end Elvis Dumervil aggravated a shoulder injury against Oakland.

Cincinnati has some injury concerns as well with rookie QB Andy Dalton suffering a wrist injury in last week’s 27-17 victory at Cleveland. Dalton was injured late in the first half and did not return after completing 10 of 15 passes for 81 yards and one touchdown. He was replaced by journeyman Bruce Gradkowski, who saved the day by throwing the game-winning touchdown pass to rookie A.J. Green with just under five minutes remaining. Dalton hopes to start but would be replaced by Gradkowski if he can’t go.

Cedric Benson did most of the offensive damage for the Bengals on the ground, rushing for 121 yards and icing the win with a 39-yard touchdown run with 1:49 left. They covered the spread as 6 ½-point road underdogs, and the two late scores pushed the total ‘over’ 34 ½ points.

Cincy has not won in Denver since 1975, losing eight straight meetings there. The Broncos have also won three of the last four games between the teams overall, although the Bengals have covered four of the past six. The ‘under’ is 3-1 in the last four meetings, including a 12-7 Denver victory at Cincinnati the last time they faced each other to open the 2009 season. Orton connected with wide receiver Brandon Stokley on a bizarre 87-yard game-winning touchdown pass with 11 seconds remaining that had been tipped by Bengals cornerback Leon Hall.

The weather forecast for the Mile High City on Sunday calls for a high temperature of 76 degrees under mostly sunny skies.

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Rams And Giants Batlle On Monday Night Football

The St. Louis Rams (0-1) and New York Giants (0-1) will both be looking to bounce back from dismal opening week performances when facing off on ESPN’s Monday Night Football.

Kickoff from MetLife Stadium is expected at 8:30 ET and the home team has moved 2 1/2 points in the betting odds since the line was released on Sept. 13.

Oddsmakers waited to release this line due to injuries up and down the St. Louis roster, ultimately sending out New York as a 3 1/2-point home favorite. The total stands at 44.

Rams quarterback Sam Bradford is listed as probable after suffering a bruised right index finger that actually knocked him out of the final quarter in last week’s 31-13 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles as 3 1/2-point home underdogs.

St. Louis is likely to be without the services of star running back Steven Jackson, who did not practice on Thursday with a leg injury suffered in the opening quarter of the 2011 campaign. It was disappointing, as the former Oregon State star rushed for 56 yards on two carries before going down.

One of the key matchups in this contest will be on the sidelines, as Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo served as Giants defensive coordinator under Tom Coughlin during the franchise's third Super Bowl win over the New England Patriots in 2008.

He’s well aware of the talent that the New York defense possesses, but it’s also a unit that lost five key defensive players before the season started.

Playing in a prime time contest is an exciting experience for the upstart club, as St. Louis last appeared in front of a Monday night audience back on Dec. 11, 2006.

Bettors will find that the Rams are 11-22 against the spread versus NFC East opponents and the ‘under’ is 21-12 over that span.

New York hasn’t faced St. Louis since the 2008 season, registering a 41-13 road win as 9-point road favorites in that contest. The Giants out-gained the Rams by a significant 441-201 margin, but these two teams are much different this time around.

A bounce back is needed from the squad after suffering a 28-14 loss to the Washington Redskins as 2 1/2-point road favorites last week, as Giants signal-caller Eli Manning failed to reach pay dirt through the air for the first time in nine road games.

Defensively, the return of defensive end Justin Tuck would be a much-needed lift, after being a late scratch last week with a neck injury.

New York is likely to play a second week without another member of the defensive line, as Osi Umenyiora is still recovering from minor knee surgery that he underwent during the preseason.

The Giants should be cautious about letting their guard down in playing the run due to Jackson’s injury, as Rams backup running back Cadillac Williams rushed 19 times for 91 yards versus the Eagles in his place.

It’s important to note that playing on the big stage doesn’t seem to bother the team from the Big Apple, posting a 3-0 ATS mark on Monday Night Football.

Weather forecasts are calling for clear skies and game-time temperatures in the low-60s.

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Total Talk - Week 2

September 16, 2011

Week 1 Recap

One week of NFL action is in the books and total players watched the ‘over’ blaze to an 11-3-2 (78%) record. Anytime you have big plays, you’re going to get big scores and that’s what happened during the opening weekend. Eleven touchdowns were produced by special teams and defense, including five punt returns.

The sudden scoring surge was noticed at the betting counter as well and they made adjustments for the Week 2. In the first installment, six of the 16 games had totals of 39 points or less. This weekend, we only have two games that are sitting in the thirties and the Jaguars-Jets game (39) could hit 40 by kickoff.

Bad Beats

The NFC West affair between San Francisco and Seattle had a total of 38. The 49ers led 16-0 at half and 19-10 with four minutes to go in the game. Then, the two clubs combined for 21 points on three big plays, two coming on special teams from the 49ers’ Tedd Ginn. Make a note that both teams barely eclipsed 200 yards of total offense.

Even without Peyton Manning on the field, the total for the Colts and Texans 'over/under' closed at 44 points. Houston jumped out early and often, building a 34-0 lead at half. Houston had a chance to add at least an extra three points but Matt Schaub was picked off in the redzone. The Colts put a touchdown in the fourth, but they also missed a field goal and turned the ball over on downs after getting a first-and-goal from the Texans’ seven-yard line.

First-half ‘over’ bettors took one on the chin this past Monday. The Patriots built a 14-7 lead on the Dolphins with 14 minutes left in the first-half. The closing number at most books was sitting at 23 ½ points. Five punts and a field goal miss later, the score stayed 14-7 heading into the third quarter.

Non-Divisional Battles

A key part of handicapping football matchups is looking history between the two teams. Unfortunately, the sample size this week won’t offer much help since we have no divisional games on tap. Due to the lockout this year the NFL decided to tweak the schedule just in case weeks of the regular season were lost. Along with this weekend, Week 4 will have no divisional battles either. The clubs playing on the road this week will be at home two weeks from now and vice versa.

If you’re betting sides in Week 2, I would certainly lean towards the unexpected because non-divisional games don’t mean as much and I believe you’re going to see some teams in 0-2 holes that you wouldn’t have expected. However, starting out 0-2 with no divisional losses isn’t as bad as it looks.

What’s even tougher about this week’s slate is that we only have two matchups, San Diego-New England and Philadelphia-Atlanta, where the two teams met during the 2010 season.

Coincidentally, those two games have the highest totals on the board.

The total on the Chargers-Patriots has spiked up to 53 ½ at some shops and while both teams have the ability to get that number, the past history doesn’t bode well. The pair have met every season since 2007 and the ‘under’ is 3-1 in those four affairs and only one of those contests was played in poor weather (Jan. 2008). The highest total during this span was 48 ½.

Philadelphia has won and covered three straight against Atlanta, including a 31-17 victory last season at home. That outcome went ‘over’ the number but the two previous affairs stayed ‘under’ the number. This week’s number is high and definitely inflated. The Eagles put up 31 last week against St. Louis, seven coming from their defense. Meanwhile, Atlanta was ripped by the Bears (12-30) on the road and its only touchdown was from its defense.

Under the Lights

The parlay combination of Favorite-Over is dreaded behind the betting counter and most often played the betting public. When that outcome happens in a nationally televised game, it’s not good for the sportsbooks. Last week, three of the four primetime games went ‘over’ the number, with Oakland and Denver resulting in a push.

What’s ironic about those games is that three of the four were on an ‘under’ pace heading into the second-half. When that happens, a lot of the public gamblers like to chase their bets, especially ‘over’ tickets. Unfortunately for the books, all four primetime games watched the ‘over’ cash in the second-half, quite easily too.

Philadelphia-Atlanta (see above) and St. Louis-New York Giants will be this week’s primetime games and both have high numbers, the Rams and Giants in particular. St. Louis and New York both gave up 31 and 28 points respectively last week, but defensive touchdowns were included in those numbers. Plus, the Rams have some banged up players on offense in quarterback Sam Bradford (finger) and running back Steven Jackson (quad). And the Giants’ wide receiver Hakeem Nicks (knee) isn’t 100 percent, which is big considering he hauled in seven passed for 122 yards last week.

Fearless Predictions

We’re back for another year of free winners…we hope. Along with our Best Bet ‘over’ and ‘under’ winners, we’re giving out the weekly Three-Teamer and introducing a Team Total play this season as well.

Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Arizona-Washington 44

Best Under: Dallas-San Francisco 42.5

Best Team Total: Under Cincinnati 17.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over Arizona-Washington 35
Under Dallas-San Francisco 51.5
Under Seattle-Pittsburgh 49

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Week 2 Preview: Chargers at Patriots

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (1-0)

at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (1-0)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: New England -6.5, Total: 54.5

Two of the AFC’s elite, and two of the NFL’s most explosive offenses, meet Sunday afternoon when San Diego travels to New England for the third time in five seasons.

The Patriots rolled up an absurd 622 yards of offense in their opener, with Tom Brady throwing for a career-high 517. San Diego, meanwhile, held the Vikings to 28 net passing yards in Week 1, and they held Brady to just 159 in their meeting last year. But the Patriots won that game, in large part due to San Diego turnovers and special teams struggles. San Diego outgained them 363-179, but still lost 23-20 at home. And the Chargers are facing special teams problems again. Kicker Nate Kaeding (knee) is out for the year, and they allowed a TD on the season’s opening kickoff. Still, San Diego has the defense to at least hold Brady and Company in check, and the offense to light up a New England pass defense that’s suspect. The pick is SAN DIEGO, and the FoxSheets have a trend that shows the Chargers have had success in shootouts:

SAN DIEGO is 13-3 ATS (81.3%, +9.7 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992. The average score was SAN DIEGO 31.2, OPPONENT 23.6 - (Rating = 1*).

The Chargers outscored Minnesota 17-0 after halftime, led by RB Mike Tolbert’s three touchdowns and Philip Rivers throwing for 335 yards and two scores. Tolbert did suffer a knee injury, but he should be ready to run on Sunday. DE Luis Castillo will not play for a long time after fracturing his tibia, but WR Patrick Crayton (ankle) will likely be able to suit up for Sunday’s matchup. San Diego was 2-6 ATS on the road in 2010.

The Patriots suffered two key injuries to their offensive line in Miami, as C Dan Koppen broke his ankle and is out for at least two months. OT Sebastian Vollmer is questionable for the game with a back injury. Role players DE Jermaine Cunningham (groin), RB Shane Vereen (hamstring) and WR Taylor Price (hamstring) are also questionable to play on Sunday. New England is 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in the past 10 meetings with the Chargers. The Pats won 21-12 in the AFC Championship game following the 2007 season, but the Bolts got their vengeance with a 30-10 beatdown of New England the following October in San Diego.

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Week 2 Preview: Eagles at Falcons

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (1-0)

at ATLANTA FALCONS (0-1)


Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -2.5, Total: 49

Michael Vick returns to Atlanta as a starting quarterback for the first time when the Falcons host Philadelphia Sunday night.

Even with Vick and the passing game a bit out of sync with drops, the Eagles still ran up 404 yards of offense in St. Louis in Week 1, as they cruised to a 31-13 road win. Atlanta lost 30-12, but it did move the ball in Chicago though. Despite just six offensive points, the Falcons still had 386 yards of offense on the slow track of Soldier Field. And their power running game could pose problems for a suspect group of Philly linebackers. RB Michael Turner had 100 yards on 10 carries against a very good Chicago run defense. But Philly’s all-world secondary should continue to frustrate Falcons QB Matt Ryan, who threw for 319 yards but also turned it over twice and failed to orchestrate a touchdown drive. The Falcons have lost three in a row, SU and ATS, to 2010 playoff teams, getting outscored 95-47 in those games. Sunday night should make it four straight. PHILADELPHIA is the pick. The FoxSheets show a three-star trend that also works against the Falcons:

Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - off a road loss, in September games. (77-36 since 1983, 68.1%, +37.4 units. Rating = 3*).

Vick had 187 yards and two passing touchdowns, and added another 98 yards on the ground with just 10 carries. The Philly defense wasn’t special, allowing 335 yards to a subpar Rams team that saw its top QB (Sam Bradford), RB (Steven Jackson) and WR (Danny Amendola) all leave the game with injuries. And Philly’s defensive unit is a little nicked up heading into Sunday night. LB Akeem Jordan suffered a significant shoulder injury and is doubtful to play. DEs Darryl Tapp (strained pectoral muscle) and Juqua Parker (foot) were both injured in the victory over the Rams, and are both questionable to suit up for Week 2. Second-string QB Vince Young is also questionable with a hamstring injury. The Eagles have won the past four meetings, both SU and ATS, by an average score of 29 to 14. They outgained the Falcons 474 to 293 in last year’s 31-17 rout.

There was not much good to take away from Atlanta’s dud performance in its 30-12 loss in Chicago. The Falcons gained 7.9 yards per carry, but were forced to throw 47 times in a futile comeback attempt. They also allowed Jay Cutler to throw for well over 300 yards and only forced one turnover (when the outcome was no longer in doubt late in the fourth quarter). Three Atlanta linemen are all uncertain to play because of knee injuries. DT Jonathan Babineaux will be out at least a month with a partially torn MCL, while DT Corey Peters and C Todd McClure have less severe knee ailments and are both listed as questionable for Sunday.

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Week 2 Preview: Rams at Giants

ST. LOUIS RAMS (0-1)

at NEW YORK GIANTS (0-1)


Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -4.5, Total: 44

The Rams and Giants will limp into Monday Night Football when St. Louis visits New York.

Rams QB Sam Bradford (finger) will likely be close to 100 percent, as his injury was termed to be a bruise. However, it is on his throwing hand. And Bradford (or, if he can’t go, A.J. Feeley) will definitely be without slot receiver Danny Amendola (dislocated elbow) and will most certainly be without RB Steven Jackson too. Jackson suffered a strained quadriceps muscle on his first touch of the season, a 47-yard TD run. St. Louis will also be without at least one, if not both of its starting cornerbacks. Ron Bartell (neck) is on injured reserve, and Bradley Fletcher (toe) is questionable at best. If Bradford goes, he could have some success against an injury-plagued Giants secondary that struggled badly in their opener, to the point that they allowed Rex Grossman to torch them for 305 passing yards in Week 1. The Giants normally have the weapons to take advantage of the Rams’ injury issues, but WR Hakeem Nicks (knee) is questionable. It would be a further hit to a Giants receiving corps that lost Steve Smith in free agency. And the Rams defense will be prepared; head coach Steve Spagnuolo was New York’s defensive coordinator in 2007 and ’08. With the Rams lacking any kind of rushing attack to keep the Giants’ fierce pass rush at bay, the pick here is NEW YORK to win and cover.

The FoxSheets provide another reason the back the Giants:

Favorites (N.Y. GIANTS) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight ATS losses. (55-26 since 1983.) (67.9%, +26.4 units. Rating = 2*).

In addition to CB Prince Amukamara (foot) and LB Jonathan Goff (knee), who are out for several months, the Giants are dealing with injuries to two of their major pass-rush threats. DEs Justin Tuck (neck) and Osi Umenyiora (knee) are listed as questionable, but Tuck said that he could have played last week if he was cleared by doctors. Other than Nicks, who was targeted 11 times in the season-opening loss at Washington, New York’s offense is healthy. The RB duo of Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs combined for 73 yards on 19 carries (3.8 YPC) against the Redskins, and will likely have a larger role on Monday night. The Giants are 5-0 ATS (4-1 SU) in the past five meetings with St. Louis.

Although Steven Jackson is the Rams’ best player, backup RB Cadillac Williams filled in admirably in Week 1, running for 91 yards on 19 carries against the Eagles. He also caught five passes for 49 yards out of the backfield. If St. Louis is to win this game, it will have to figure out a way to stop New York’s running game. Last week against Philly, the Rams surrendered 237 rushing yards and 7.6 yards per carry.

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NFL Update For Sunday's Games

The NFL regular season quickly moves into Week 2 and some players are expected to make their first appearance. Houston Texans running back Arian Foster is the biggest name on the list after suffering from a left hamstring injury during the preseason.

Oddsmakers expected his return and sent out Houston as a 3-point road favorite over the Miami Dolphins. It has not moved from that number the entire week. Bettors did find an advantage in playing the total, moving from 46 to 48.

The biggest straight-bet move occurred in the Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos contest, as rookie quarterback Andy Dalton is now listed as probable to be under center for the second consecutive week on the road.

Denver opened as 6-point home favorites and was immediately bet down two points in the first 24 hours of wagering. The public was unimpressed with the Broncos 23-20 loss to the Oakland Raiders as 3-point home favorites on Monday Night Football. Some books have dropped this number to a field goal.

NFL bettors will find that the schedule features five games that will be played inside a dome, while weather in other parts of the country should present little to no problems over the course of the game.

Miami and Tennessee are the only cities that are expecting any type of precipitation, as a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms is expected in South Beach and Nashville respectively.

Four games are holding steady on the odds board on the key number of 3, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers potentially moving downwards to 2 1/2-point road underdogs in the near future.

It’s an expected move with head coach Raheem Morris tallying a 7-0 ATS mark last year when getting points away from Raymond James Stadium. Both teams are coming in with an 0-1 SU record and Tampa Bay has covered the last four meetings.

Three teams were released as double-digit favorites this week and two remain at that level heading into Sunday. New York has fallen off from being a 10-point home favorite over Jacksonville, while the Pittsburgh Steelers have been bet up from 13 1/2 to 14.

The Green Bay Packers have held steady as the only team favored by double digits on the road, as the defending Super Bowl champions look to move head coach Mike McCarthy to 6-0 SU all-time in road openers.

Total bettors will find that 15 of 16 games have been bet up from its original number in some capacity, with the Sunday Night Football matchup between Atlanta and Philadelphia being the only game that has fallen from its original number.

That particular total has fallen from 50 1/2 to 49 in most spots.

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Week 2 Line Moves

September 17, 2011

The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book had an early line for Week 2 NFL games prior to the start of Week 1 with the Falcons a 1 ½-point favorite over the visiting Eagles. Once the games start, the Hilton takes the lines off the board and then readjusts later in the evening based on what happened to both teams in their games.

In each case of these two teams, what happened in their first game drastically changed perceptions of them and altered the line considerably. Following the Eagles 31-13 trouncing at St. Louis and the Falcons lackluster performance at Chicago, the Eagles became a 2 ½-point favorite.

The knee-jerk reaction on line movement isn’t just a matter each team rating be adjusted, but also a matter of how the public feels. The sports books know how the public plays and they react to a teams’ performance anticipating what their perception will be. Everyone loved the Eagles last week and they dominated which will carry momentum into the next week at the bet windows.

The massive adjustment wouldn’t have occurred had the Falcons gave any inkling that that they were the same team from last two years, but they didn’t. The public is down on the Falcons and high on the Eagles.

Based on the line movement from when the Hilton re-opened the game on Sunday night, it appears they were 100% correct. They’ve had two-way action on the game throughout the week and never had to go to Eagles -3. The larger bets are on the Falcons with all the small money siding with the Eagles. The line still sits with Eagles a -2 ½-point favorite.

The Saints opened a 7-point favorite in their home game against Chicago. The public loves the Saints, but respected money came in on the Bears dropping it to -6 ½. However, the public overwhelmed that money and it is now back up to -7.

The Lions-Chiefs game is in the same category as the Eagles game where both teams altered opinions of the public after one week of play. Everyone loves the Lions and hates the Chiefs. It’s a hard sell to take Kansas City after watching Buffalo thrash them on their home field. The Lions went from -7 ½-point favorites to -8 ½ and has since dropped back -7 ½ because of sharp money taking value on the Chiefs.

The Jets have dropped from 10 ½-point favorites to -9 against the Jaguars because of respected money. The small money all loves the Jets.

Following the Redskins impressive performance against the Giants last week, they opened as 4 ½-point favorites to the visiting Cardinals. The game has since fallen to -3 ½ with many not believing the Redskins and Rex Grossman can play the same way two straight weeks.

The Ravens had a massive adjustment in their game at Tennessee on the basis of their beat down on Pittsburgh. Before Sunday’s game they were 3 ½-point favorites and when the game re-opened after Sunday’s results, they were -5 ½. The line got as high as -6, but has settled on the dead number of -5 ½.

The Steelers were set to be 13-point favorites before their performance at Baltimore. Despite their poor play, they re-opened at -14.5 against Seattle. The readjustment is based on the Steelers expected to take out their frustration from last week on whoever they play as well as the Seahawks showing in week 1 that they might be the worst offensive team in football. The Steelers are currently -14.

The Chargers kind of showed the world that they are the same team as last season who are capable of losing to anyone on any given day. The Patriots were set to be 5 ½-point favorites for their home match against San Diego, but after the Chargers un-impressive win and Tom Brady throwing for 517 yards on Monday night, the game was adjusted to -6 ½ and then bet up to -7. Large Chargers money took the +7 and it now currently sits at 6 ½.

The Broncos were set as 6-point favorites for their home game against the Bengals, but after Denver couldn’t punch the ball in for scores in Week 1 and Cincinnati playing well against the Browns, the game went to -4 and has since been dropped to -3 ½.

The biggest total adjustment came with the Texans-Dolphins game following Monday night’s game. Who knew the Dolphins could be so prolific with their passing game? The game opened 43, but on Tuesday following the Dolphins performance against the Patriots, it had been adjusted to 46. Since then, it has been bet up as high as 48 ½ until finally getting someone to nibble on the 'under.' The total currently sits at 48.

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Trends - Week 2

September 17, 2011

NFL ATS PLAY ON TREND:

The Saints are 10-0 ATS (12.4 ppg) since November 25, 2007 following an away loss.


NFL ATS PLAY AGAINST TREND:

The Steelers are 0-14 ATS (-8.1 ppg) since September 30, 2007 as a favorite when facing a team that has benefited from an average of less than 1.25 turnovers per game season-to-date.

NFL OU TREND OF THE WEEK:

The Ravens are 0-12 (-12.1 ppg) since October 2000 after a divisional game where they held the opponent to 10+ points less than expected.

NFL BIBLE TREND OF THE WEEK:

The Falcons are 12-0 ATS (+13.1 ppg) since December 23rd 2007 when they are off a loss in which they scored fewer points than expected.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL | CLEVELAND at INDIANAPOLIS
Play Over - Road teams against the total after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers
34-11 over the last 5 seasons. ( 75.6% | 21.9 units )
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NFL | HOUSTON at MIAMI
Play On - Any team vs the money line (MIAMI) first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight losses, marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games
25-14 since 1997. ( 64.1% | 0.0 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | 0.0 units )
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NFL | GREEN BAY at CAROLINA
Play Under - Road teams vs. the 1rst half total solid team from last season - outscored opponents by 7 or more points/game, in conference games
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Underdogs: Week 2 pointspread predictions

It was the first Christmas Eve of the new millennium. George Bush and Al Gore were fighting over the state of Florida, Tiger Woods was really good at golf and Britney Spears was smoking hot in red leather.

It was also the last time the Detroit Lions were favored by more than a touchdown. The club was led by Charlie Batch and had a chance to make the playoffs for a consecutive season if it took care of business against the Chicago Bears at home in Week 17.

Oddsmakers liked the Lions’ chances. They had the home side as 9-point chalk in a game Detroit would go on to lose outright 23-20.

The Lions finished 9-7 but didn’t make the postseason and they haven’t had a winning season since. I don’t have to remind anyone of the icebergs the team smashed into while Matt Millen was driving the boat. And, really, it’s beyond Millen. The franchise didn't make one good football decision for most of the last decade.

It was just three years ago the Lions completed the reverse perfect season (0-16) and followed that up with a 14-loss campaign the subsequent year.

But things are different now. Football fans in Motor City have taken the paper bags off their heads so they can get a better look at a squad many bettors see as not just a sleeper team, but a legit Super Bowl contender.

We wrote several articles over the summer talking about the tidal wave of Detroit action in the futures market. Sportsbooks were forced to lower the Super Bowl odds on the club from 75-to-1 down to 30-to-1. Did I mention they lost 10 of 16 games last season?

Look, I get it. Detroit is good, or at least much better than what it has been since Microsoft 2000 was released.

But as much as I love the now-roaring Lions, I can’t back them this weekend. The books put out a Week 2 line to combat the swell of public and sharp action on Detroit. Nine points is a lot, even for an elite team (something I don’t think Detroit is yet) to cover at home against a division winner.

Kansas City Chiefs at Detroit Lions (-9)

I see KC’s blowout loss to the Bills kind of like the series finale of Entourage. We shouldn’t be surprised by either suckfests. Both were already on a downward spiral.

The Chiefs offense just doesn’t function as well with head coach Todd Haley calling the shots instead of Charlie Weis. We saw that in the playoff loss to the Ravens. Actually, now that I think about it, opponents are outscoring Kansas City 102-24 over the team’s last three non-preseason games.

I’m not helping my case for backing the Chiefs here, am I?

OK, OK. It’s on principle only that I'm taking the Chiefs. I don’t think Detroit’s good enough to be giving near double digits at home.

Pick: Chiefs +9

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-7)

My first instinct is to call bullshit when someone phones in sick for work. I’ve known too many lazy asses to trust a coworker when he or she reports feeling under the weather.

I can count on one hand how many days I’ve called in sick over the last eight years. I’m sure my bosses would have preferred that I stay at home instead report to the office and infect other staff members.

But if my mom died unexpectedly like Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher’s did, I think I’d have to take an extended leave. The type of bravely Chicago’s defensive captain is demonstrating should motivate the hell out of his teammates.

I underestimated the Bears last week and I won’t do it again here.

Pick: Chicago +7

Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons (+2.5)

It’s only the second weekend of the season but you could argue that this game is bigger than Christina Hendricks' bust size. Michael Vick wants a win against his former team almost as much as he wants his creditors to forgive his debt. Almost.

Meanwhile, the Dirty Birds are looking to redeem themselves after last week’s atrocity at Soldier Field. Atlanta might be the one team in the league with enough talent in its passing game to test Philly’s secondary.

Pick: Falcons +2.5


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Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 2-1 ATS

[StarDust Bum]

Where the action is: NFL Week 2 lines moves

The odds for Week 2 of the NFL season are steady for the most part. But there are a few games in which action is forcing bookmakers to move the numbers.

*********** talked to Jay Rood, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, about some of the biggest moves on the Week 2 board:

Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts – Open: Colts +3, Current: +1

Without Peyton Manning and following a disastrous opener versus Houston, oddsmakers have no choice but to set Indianapolis as a home underdog. However, bettors think there’s more fight left in the Colts.

“If Indy was respectable in that opener and kept it close, this would no doubt be a different game,” says Rood.

The majority of straight bets (ATS) are on the Browns, but there is a ton of parlay action tied to the Colts as home underdogs.

Kansas City Chiefs at Detroit Lions – Open: Lions -7, Move: -8.5, Current: -7.5

After an embarrassing loss to the Bills in Week 1, the Chiefs head to the Motor City to face everyone’s betting darling, the Detroit Lions. Rood says that 90 percent of wagers are on Detroit and that his book has no problem taking all those bets at more than a touchdown.

“It’s a little early to declare (Detroit) a Super Bowl contender,” says Rood.

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos – Open: Broncos -6, Current: -3.5

Just two weeks ago, the Bengals were the most-faded team in football. But after a surprise win in Week 1, bettors are shrinking the spread with action on Cincy. Rood says 80 percent of bets are on the Bengals.

“We’ve taken a few sharp bets on the Bengals, but there are a lot of parlays tied to the Broncos,” he says.

San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots – Open: 50.5, Current: 54.5

Two of the top QBs in the NFL equal plenty of offense, right? Bettors seem to think so, driving this number upwards. The Mirage opened this total at 52.5 and went to 53.5 points after action poured in on the over. However, bettors began to buy back the under once the number went to 54.5.

“Everybody on TV is telling us this is going to be a shootout, especially after what Brady did on Monday Night Football,” says Rood. “But Belichick is going to be figuring out his defensive schemes and the Chargers are one of the better defensive teams.”