The Bum's NFL Week # 2 Best Bets !

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Week 2 Preview: Buccaneers at Vikings

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (0-1)

at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (0-1)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Minnesota -3, Total: 41

Tampa had plenty of success on the road a year ago, and they can keep that trend going when they visit Minnesota on Sunday.

The Bucs went 6-2 SU and 7-0-1 ATS away from home last year, and the Vikins seem ripe for a home upset. Minnesota is coming off an ugly opener in San Diego, in which they were outgained 407-187. QB Donovan McNabb, making his Vikings debut, threw for 39 yards. The Vikes dropped back 17 times and had 28 net passing yards. Tampa certainly won’t give up another 300-yard passing day like they did in their opener, which did them in against Detroit. Their major concern will be Vikings RB Adrian Peterson. The Bucs struggled against the run a year ago and allowed 126 rush yards to a Detroit team that lacks a power runner. But even if Peterson has a big day, Tampa has the weapons around QB Josh Freeman to beat a Vikings defense that, among other issues, is breaking in a new defensive line. TAMPA BAY is the pick.

The FoxSheets have a three-star trend that works against the Vikings as well:

Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MINNESOTA) - off a road loss, team that had a losing record last season. (48-17 since 1983, 73.8%, +29.3 units. Rating = 3*).

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Week 2 Preview: Browns at Colts

CLEVELAND BROWNS (0-1)

at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (0-1)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Cleveland -3, Total: 37

Just how bad did the Colts look in their first meaningful Peyton Manning-less game since 1997? They’re actually getting points when they host Cleveland on Sunday.

The adjustment to life without Manning was rough for Indy in their opener. They were not competitive with the Texans in Houston, outmatched on both sides of the ball. And after falling behind early, they had little chance of a comeback with Kerry Collins under center. Indy had just 236 yards of offense in Houston, even with the Texans sitting back in a prevent shell for most of the second half. The Browns blew a game at home against lowly Cincinnati, but it wasn’t as lopsided as the 10-point deficit would suggest. They were in control until a quick-snap play caught them off-guard and led to a 41-yard touchdown pass. They also allowed a meaningless, long TD run at the end of the game. But Cleveland matches up very well with Indy, especially with their power running game. The Colts’ undersized front seven traditionally struggles against big backs, and the Browns will give them a heavy dose of Peyton Hillis. While it seem instinctually wrong, CLEVELAND is the pick.

The FoxSheets have a three-star trend to back that up:

Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANAPOLIS) - off a road loss, in September games. (77-36 since 1983, 68.1%, +37.4 units. Rating = 3*).

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Week 2 Preview: Raiders at Bills

OAKLAND RAIDERS (1-0)

at BUFFALO BILLS (1-0)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Buffalo -4, Total: 41.5

Two of Week 1’s upstart teams do battle when Oakland travels to Buffalo on Sunday.

The Raiders have been a doormat for AFC East opponents the past three seasons. They’re 0-6 SU and 3-3 ATS against the East since 2008, getting outscored 171-100 in those games. For the Bills to win, they may have to jump down Oakland’s throats early, as they did to Kansas City in Week 1. Buffalo made strides to improve their run defense over the off season, but still allowed 6.0 yards per carry to the Chiefs in their opener. They’ll have to contend with RB Darren McFadden, a similar runner to K.C.’s Jamaal Charles. The Raiders want to go to McFadden and Michael Bush early and often. They rushed for 190 yards in their opener in Denver. But the Denver run defense is even worse than Buffalo’s, and Oakland has a tough task having to come across the country to play on short rest.

The FoxSheets has another trend supporting BUFFALO as the pick:

OAKLAND is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog since 1992. The average score was OAKLAND 15.4, OPPONENT 29.4 - (Rating = 1*).

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NFL Week 2 Preview: Cardinals at Redskins

ARIZONA CARDINALS (1-0)

at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (1-0)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Washington -4.5, Total: 42

Life is good right now for much maligned Redskins QB Rex Grossman, and it’s about to get better with Arizona’s hapless defense visiting Washington on Sunday.

In the season opener, Grossman threw for 305 yards against a Giants secondary that had been ravaged by injuries. Now he’ll face a Cardinals defense that allowed 422 passing yards to rookie QB Cam Newton, an athletic but very raw passer. Arizona’s new QB, Kevin Kolb, threw for 309 yards in his Arizona debut, and their offense is clearly improved. But Arizona was just 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS on the road a year ago, and The FoxSheets have another trend that illustrates why WASHINGTON is the pick:

ARIZONA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a home win over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ARIZONA 13.0, OPPONENT 26.4 - (Rating = 1*).

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Las Vegas Sharps Report-NFL Week 2
CHICAGO AT NEW ORLEANS: Sharps took the opener from New Orleans -6.5 to -7. I can’t say that we’re talking about universal affection for the Saints though. The line didn’t go past the key number. And, there’s definitely some Chicago money out there waiting to see if the public takes this popular home favorite higher, as well as some position taking hoping for a middle on the key number 7. Chicago money wouldn’t hit early because there’s no value. New Orleans money from sharps would hit early below the critical number. I’ve told you before there are many out here in Nevada with Chicago roots or connections. Those guys were impressed with the Bears against Atlanta last week, and the Saints D gave up a lot of yards(and points) the previous week.

KANSAS CITY AT DETROIT: The total here was the big mover. An early line of 43 moved up to 45. That was because Detroit had a very good offensive day at Tampa Bay last week, while Kansas City was having a very bad defensive game vs. Buffalo. The team side line of Detroit by 8 is too high to attract sharps on the Lions bandwagon right now.The last time the Lions were favored by this much was back in the Roman Coliseums. Sharps aren't ready to lay more than a TD with this group yet. But, if that line doesn’t move, Detroit is going to be in a lot of two-team teasers this weekend because moving six points would take you past the 7 and the 3 . Detroit -2 will be a popular teaser choice. Many sportsbooks are doing what they can to discourage teasers because the market has gotten so sharp in recent seasons with this prop.

JACKSONVILLE AT NY JETS: Early support for the road dog here. As Jacksonville has moved down from +10 to +9. Sharps aren’t ready to trust Mark Sanchez with a big line because he’s still so mistake prone. The total is up from 37.5 to 39 given the high scoring affair of Dallas-NYJ last week. The weather’s still nice in New York too. Sharps will play more Unders in the cold weather cities in later months.

OAKLAND AT BUFFALO: We have a two-point move on the Over here, as an early line of 41 is up to 43. Both offenses showed promise last week. Early support for the dog because sharps were happy to get more than a field goal with Oakland once they saw the good effort at Denver. An opener of Oakland +4 is down to Oakland +3. I can tell you some of the “bad body clock” guys will be stepping in on Buffalo -3 though, some time in the next few days. This is a 10 a.m. body time kickoff for Oakland, in a short week after a Monday Night divisional game. Systems guys like the Bills, who totally outplayed the Chiefs. Power Ratings guys like Oakland because Buffalo isn’t in a range which says they should be favored by more than a field goal.

ARIZONA AT WASHINGTON: Kevin Kolb vs. Rex Grossman is suddenly seen as a quarterback war! The total has gone from 42 to 45 after both of those QB’s played well last week, and Arizona’s defense looked shoddy vs. Carolina and Cam Newton. But, sharps have backed the dog here as Arizona +4.5 is down to Arizona +3.5. It’s odd to see so much dog action early in the week because sharps generally wait for the public to bet. But, we’re talking about favorites that the public may not step in on yet. Dog moves against Detroit, Buffalo, and Washington are fading favorites that probably wouldn’t have received overwhelming public support. And, all three of those favorites are in the “should they really be favored by THAT much” category until they prove otherwise.

BALTIMORE AT TENNESSEE: Not much interest here yet. The total mas moved up from 37 to 38. Baltimore is a 6-point favorite…and most people I’ve talked to think that’s a good line. Should the public come in on Baltimore after their blowout of Pittsburgh…I think we’d see some sharp money on Tennessee +7 as a home dog. Sometimes a lack of action from sharps isn’t a “pass.” It just means they’re waiting.

SEATTLE AT PITTSBURGH: Pittsburgh is a popular bounce back choice this week. This is a Super Bowl team that just played horribly, hosting a bad visitor who should be jet-lagged in their second straight road game. An early line of Pittsburgh by 13.5 is up to 14 now. Some places have nudged it higher than that. But, Seattle money comes in above the critical number of 14 to bring it back down. Sharps will take more than two touchdowns almost as a rule just because of long term dog histories at high numbers. The total is up two points from 38 to 40 because the weather should be nice and Pittsburgh should be in the mood to score. Its said that you can often predict the weather based on line moves. Sharps follow those long term forecasts.

GREEN BAY AT CAROLINA: This total has jumped up from 43 to 46.5 because Cam Newton had such a big day last week. Aaron Rodgers has a big day every week! Green Bay opened at -10.5, and is down to -10 because sharps will take double digit dogs at anything over a critical number(10,14,17). Note that the Packers and Saints this week have a few extra days of preparation time because they played last Thursday. Sometimes that means fresh legs. Sometimes it means rust.

TAMPA BAY AT MINNESOTA: Not much interest here, with Minnesota standing pat as a 3-point home favorite. Both teams lost last week, and played worse than the final scores made it seem. Each team had a non-offensive touchdown that helped them out on the scoreboard. My discussions with sharps suggest there’s more support for Tampa Bay at this line than for the host. Sharps tend to like dogs anyway. And, sharps don’t have much faith in Donovan McNabb any more. The total has gone up a point from 40.5 to 41.5.

CLEVELAND AT INDIANAPOLIS: Weird game here. Indianapolis was awful last week, which didn’t surprise anyone. But, Cleveland was pretty bad too, and that surprised everyone. The Browns were a popular sharp play vs. Cincinnati as the offseason developed. Cincinnati Under their team total was a very popular sharp pick. So, what do you make of this one? Cleveland dropped from -3 to -2 as a road favorite. The total went up from 37 to 40. I’m hearing that the math guys don’t like either of these defenses, and thought a number in the 30’s was too low for a game played in good scoring conditions.

DALLAS AT SAN FRANCISCO: Too bad it’s not Troy Aikman vs. Joe Montana. It’s mistake-prone Tony Romo vs. the horrible Alex Smith. Dallas has stood solid as a 3-point road favorite. Tough road trip in terms of travel for the Pokes. But, the 49ers didn’t play well last week vs. Seattle outside of a couple of special teams TD’s.Also Sharps I spoke to were impressed with Dallas, who still covered despite Romo's careless play and a blocked punt, while amassing good offensive numbers against a top tier defense The total went up from 41.5 to 42.5.



HOUSTON AT MIAMI: We’ve got a few three’s on the board this week. As I’ve told you in the past, it takes a lot to move a game OFF the three because sportsbooks are afraid they’ll get flooded with money back toward the critical number. You don’t casually move a 3-point favorite to -3.5 because sharps will pound the dog at +3.5. You don’t casually drop a line to -2.5 because everyone races to the window to bet that cheap favorite. (Hint…this is why any line that stays at -2.5 is telling you the dog is a great play!). Houston is laying three on the road. The total is up to 46 from 48…as beautiful weather continues across the country and sharps react to the lack of rustiness last week in the openers. Remember when the media was telling everyone offenses would be out of synch because of the lockout?

SAN DIEGO AT NEW ENGLAND: There was some early position-taking here because sharps know the public wants to bet on Tom Brady…and they want to bet on a high scoring game in his battle with Philip Rivers. So, an opener of New England -6.5 went right to -7., and a total of 51 moved up to 53.5. We may see some buy backs on the dog and Under if the moves continue. We’ll see more early week position-taking as the season progresses once the public is very clear about who they’re going to bet on weekends.

CINCINNATI AT DENVER: Big move on the dog here after Cincinnati looked good last week and Denver looked awful. It’s funny…sharps spent a month hating Cincinnati…and a month bragging about the great early number they got on Denver (-) vs. Oakland. Now…a game that starts off at Denver -6 moves down to Denver -3.5. Sharps are quick learners, and adapt accordingly. That's why they're Sharps!

PHILADELPHIA AT ATLANTA: Here’s an example of a game that’s stayed at -2.5. The Eagles opened at that line, and it didn’t move to the critical number for most of the week. As we go to press, it’s even gone down to Philly by one. So, sharps like the playoff bye team at home in a bounce-back spot…and aren’t that excited about Michael Vick playing his second straight road game, considering he wasn't that sharp last week against the Rams. Any game that starts out at -2 or -2.5 and DOESN’T move to three is one featuring a respected dog that has the attention of sharps.

ST. LOUIS AT NY GIANTS: The injury situation in St. Louis moved this line from +3.5 all the way up to +6. It may come back down on game day if it’s clear Sam Bradford isn’t being bothered by his finger. But, the injury bug hit this team so hard that the line may not move. The public likes betting on home favorites on Monday Nights too. Sharps are pretty happy with their bets on the Giants at -4, -4.5, and -5. They can buy off those positions on game day if need be. Some Ram sentiment exists, given how poorly the Giants played last week, and those Sharps are waiting to see how high the public drives the line come gameday.

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Sunday, September 18

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Seattle - 1:00 PM ET Seattle +14 500
Pittsburgh - Under 39.5 500

Baltimore - 1:00 PM ET Baltimore -5.5 500
Tennessee - Under 38.5 500

Jacksonville - 1:00 PM ET N.Y. Jets -9.5 500
N.Y. Jets - Over 38 500

Arizona - 1:00 PM ET Washington -4 500
Washington - Over 44 500

Oakland - 1:00 PM ET Oakland +4 500
Buffalo - Over 41 500

Tampa Bay - 1:00 PM ET Tampa Bay +1 500
Minnesota - Over 41 500

Chicago - 1:00 PM ET New Orleans -4.5 500
New Orleans - Over 47.5 500

Green Bay - 1:00 PM ET Carolina +10 500
Carolina - Under 44.5 500

Cleveland - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland -1 500
Indianapolis - Over 39.5 500

Kansas City - 1:00 PM ET Kansas City +9 500
Detroit - Over 45 500

Dallas - 4:05 PM ET Dallas -3 500
San Francisco - Over 41 500

Cincinnati - 4:15 PM ET Cincinnati +3.5 500
Denver - Over 41 500

Houston - 4:15 PM ET Miami +3 500
Miami - Over 47.5 500

San Diego - 4:15 PM ET New England -7 500
New England - Over 53 500

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday Night Best Bets !


Philadelphia - 8:20 PM ET Atlanta +1.5 500

Atlanta - Under 49.5 500

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Week 2 Preview: Rams at Giants

ST. LOUIS RAMS (0-1)

at NEW YORK GIANTS (0-1)


Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -7, Total: 44

The Rams and Giants will limp into Monday Night Football when St. Louis visits New York.

Rams QB Sam Bradford (finger) will likely be close to 100 percent, as his injury was termed to be a bruise. However, it is on his throwing hand. And Bradford will definitely be without slot receiver Danny Amendola (dislocated elbow) and will most certainly be without RB Steven Jackson too. Jackson suffered a strained quadriceps muscle on his first touch of the season, a 47-yard TD run. St. Louis will also be without at least one, if not both of its starting cornerbacks. Ron Bartell (neck) is on injured reserve, and Bradley Fletcher (toe) is questionable. If Bradford goes, he could have some success against an injury-plagued Giants secondary that struggled badly in their opener, to the point that they allowed Rex Grossman to torch them for 305 passing yards in Week 1. The Giants normally have the weapons to take advantage of the Rams’ injury issues, but WR Hakeem Nicks (knee) is questionable. It would be a further hit to a Giants receiving corps that lost Steve Smith in free agency. And the Rams defense will be prepared; head coach Steve Spagnuolo was New York’s defensive coordinator in 2007 and ’08. With the Rams lacking any kind of rushing attack to keep the Giants’ fierce pass rush at bay, the pick here is NEW YORK to win and cover.

The FoxSheets provide another reason the back the Giants:

Favorites (N.Y. GIANTS) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight ATS losses. (55-26 since 1983.) (67.9%, +26.4 units. Rating = 2*).

In addition to CB Prince Amukamara (foot) and LB Jonathan Goff (knee), who are out for several months, the Giants are dealing with injuries to two of their major pass-rush threats. DEs Justin Tuck (neck) and Osi Umenyiora (knee) are listed as questionable, but Tuck said that he could have played last week had he been cleared by doctors. Other than Nicks, who was targeted 11 times in the season-opening loss at Washington, New York’s offense is healthy. The RB duo of Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs combined for 73 yards on 19 carries (3.8 YPC) against the Redskins, and will likely have a larger role on Monday night. The Giants are 5-0 ATS (4-1 SU) in the past five meetings with St. Louis.

Although Steven Jackson is the Rams’ best player, backup RB Cadillac Williams filled in admirably in Week 1, running for 91 yards on 19 carries against the Eagles. He also caught five passes for 49 yards out of the backfield. If St. Louis is to win this game, it will have to figure out a way to stop New York’s running game. Last week against Philly, the Rams surrendered 237 rushing yards on 7.6 yards per carry.

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MNF - Rams at Giants

September 17, 2011

Two home teams have lost on Monday night through the first week of the NFL season as the Giants welcome in the Rams to the new Meadowlands to wrap up Week 2. Both clubs are seeking their first win of the season after losing to NFC East teams in the opener, even though one of those was expected by many.

St. Louis seemed like a live underdog in Week 1 against a hyped Philadelphia squad as the Rams received four points. Following a 47-yard touchdown run by Steven Jackson, the Eagles reeled off 31 of the next 37 points in the game as Philadelphia cruised to a 31-13 victory to easily cash as away 'chalk.' The Rams' defense, which excelled last season, allowed 237 yards on the ground while DeSean Jackson racked up 102 yards receiving and a touchdown.

The Giants opened as three-point road favorites at rival Washington, but the line dropped during the week with the multitude of injuries on New York's defense. Rex Grossman took advantage by torching the Giants with 305 yards through the air and a pair of touchdown passes. Washington's defense was a liability last season for Mike Shanahan, but the Redskins made two crucial plays to stymie New York. The Giants failed to convert a 4th and 1 in Washington territory, while the 'Skins later blocked a Lawrence Tynes field goal to end a five-game home losing streak to Big Blue that dated back to 2006.

New York's defense welcomes back defensive end Justin Tuck, who missed the Washington loss with a stinger suffered in the final preseason game. However, the Giants will still be without rookie CB Prince Amukamara, DE Osi Umenyiora, CB Terrell Thomas, and LB Jonathan Goff. The good news for New York is it won't have to worry about Jackson, as the standout Rams' running back is 'doubtful' with a quad injury. Former top pick Sam Bradford will start after suffering an injury to his right index finger in the second half of last Sunday's defeat to the Eagles.

The Rams won just two of eight games away from the Edward Jones Domes last season, which coincidentally came in consecutive weeks at Denver and Arizona. St. Louis cashed five times on the road, including covers in losses of three points or less against the Raiders, Bucs, and Niners. Under Steve Spagnuolo, the Rams managed to keep Week 2 games close after opening week defeats with ATS wins in losses at Washington (9-7 as 9 ½-point 'dogs in '09) and Oakland (16-14 as 3 ½-point 'dogs in '10).

Tom Coughlin's squad has struggled to cover as a home favorite since 2009 by compiling a 4-10 ATS record, including a 3-6 ATS mark when laying at least six points. The Giants own a 3-7 ATS ledger as home 'chalk' against non-division opponents over the last two seasons, while the Rams are visiting New Jersey for the first time since 2005.

Eli Manning has lit up St. Louis in his career with a pair of wins, including a four-touchdown performance against the Rams in a 44-24 home blowout on October 2, 2005 as 3 ½-point favorites. The Giants turned the trick once again at the Edward Jones Dome in Week 2 of 2008 with a 41-13 romping of the Rams as Manning tossed three more touchdowns to help New York cash as nine-point 'chalk.'

Both the Monday night home teams fell last week (Miami and Denver), but the Giants are 5-2 SU/ATS under Coughlin in the Monday spotlight with both losses coming on the road at Jacksonville (2006) and Cleveland (2008). The Rams haven't played in primetime on Monday since 2006 in a 42-27 home loss to the Bears, the longest drought in the league.

From a totals perspective, the Rams are 11-5 to the 'under' on the highway, while scoring 19 points or less in six road games last season. The Giants have a propensity for high-scoring affairs at home with a 10-5-1 mark to the 'over' since 2009.

The Giants are listed as six-point favorites, while the total is set at 44. The game is televised nationally on ESPN as things get kicked off at the new Meadowlands at 8:30 PM EST.

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Titans, Falcons help Books

September 19, 2011

The sports books had a great day Sunday when the afternoon games had been posted, but the day wasn’t over and the money won could still be lost in an instant. After sweating out 14 games and showing a sizeable win, they had one more game to worry about needing the Falcons (+2 ½) to cover the spread or else everything from the day would be lost.

The Eagles-Falcons game had sports book directors feeling as though it was a lost cause with Michael Vick piling up points, but then there was a glimmer of hope the onslaught would stop when Vick went out of the game with a concussion. Shortly after, the Falcons responded with a 14-0 run in the fourth-quarter and eventually won 35-31 giving the books a winning day.

“Things went our way throughout the day with the perfect mix of results for us,“ said Las Vegas Hilton Executive Director Jay Kornegay. “It was a good day with the Ravens being our best decision (prior to the Falcons win) followed by the Saints. The back-door cover by the Panthers against the Packers was good for us too.”

The Gateway to success for most sports books came thanks to the Tennessee Titans.

After beating the Steelers soundly last week, the entire betting population seemed to have action on the Ravens this week laying 5 ½-points at Tennessee. Most bettors had them tied up in parlays and teasers as their key game, so when the Titans won 23-13, the sports books had just hit the power ball and scooped the majority of the chips.

Sharp money was on the Titans and kept the game below six, although many sports books tried the number out briefly just because of all the mounting Ravens risk. Whenever the number popped up, it wasn’t long before the number was sniffed out by the smart money and bet.

Despite sharp money taking away some of the straight bet win on the game, the game immediately eliminated risk from the popular parlays with the Jets, Lions and Steelers.

The Steelers once again showed their mite as teams continue to have hangovers the week after playing them. In this instance, rather than being beat up, the Titans game was a total let down for Baltimore. There was no way to recreate the same intensity they had against Pittsburgh when playing against a team like Tennessee, who everyone thought was done for.

Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck kept the Ravens defense off balance all day throwing for 358 yards and a touchdown pass. Tennessee’s offense piled up 432 yards of offense to Baltimore’s 234. Joe Flacco was sacked three times and forced into throwing two interceptions by the Titans revamped defense.

Other sharp plays on the days had the Bills (-3), Buccaneers (+3), 49ers (+3), Bengals (+3 ½) and the Bears (+7).

Kornegay opened the Saints as seven-point favorites and by kickoff sharp money had pushed the game all the way to -4 ½. It looked to be the right side when Jay Cutler led the Bears to a touchdown on their first series, but the Saints came marching home with a 30-13 victory.

“Probably the worst decision for us was the Steelers just because of the sheer parlay volume on the game,” said Korngay. “On the same note, the Cowboys landing on the number wasn’t a good thing either because it was the final game posted of the afternoon games making all tickets -- Cowboys and 49ers sides -- coming in, either alive to the Sunday or Monday night game, or winners as the final leg of their parlays.”

Favorites went 7-7-1 against the spread on Sunday with three of the underdogs winning outright. That type of mix in the NFL is usually going to produce a good day for the books.

After two weeks on NFL action the sports books are 1-0-1 against the bettors which is something the public should feel good about when considering last season the books reeled off nine straight weeks of Sunday wins to start off the season.

[StarDust Bum]

Spread Builds For NY Giants In MNF Matchup

The St. Louis Rams (0-1) and New York Giants (0-1) will close out Week 2 of the 2011 NFL regular season when facing off on Monday Night Football at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ.

St. Louis running back Steven Jackson is expected to miss after suffering a quad injury in the Rams' 31-13 loss at home to the Philadelphia Eagles as 4-point home underdogs during Week 1. The betting odds in this contest have continually climbed from its opening number of 3 ½, with New York reaching as high as a touchdown favorite in some spots.

The total has moved up a single tick to settle in at 44.

A former star for the Oregon State Beavers, Jackson hasn’t officially ruled himself out of the game, as it truly depends on how he feels when waking up Monday.

“It’s getting better daily,” Jackson told the team’s official website. “It’s all predicated on how I feel on Monday. We are definitely shooting to have an outside chance to be able to go on Monday."

Many around Las Vegas feel that the line move isn’t justified due to St. Louis possessing capable backups after signing Cadillac Williams and Jerious Norwood during the offseason.

New York has its own set of injuries problems, especially at defensive end where Osi Umenyiora (knee) is expected to miss while Justin Tuck (neck) has been moved up to probable.

Tuck’s situation is a touchy one, as he practiced sparingly over the course of the week, stating that he’s still not 100 percent. He was a late scratch in the team’s 28-14 loss versus the Washington Redskins. New York was a 1 ½-point road favorite in that contest.

Offensively, Giants quarterback Eli Manning should have one of his main weapons back, as wide receiver Hakeem Nicks (knee) is probable. He went down during the season-opening loss and didn’t participate in team drills Friday.

Both teams desperately need a win. The Rams will return home on a short week to face the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3, while the Giants play their second NFC East contest of the 2011 campaign when traveling to Philadelphia.

New York will be looking to avenge two losses against Philadelphia last year, including a 38-31 home loss on Dec. 19, 2010. It was a stunning loss that saw the Giants blow a 21-point lead by punting the ball to Eagles wide receiver DeSean Jackson, who returned it for a 65-yard score on the game’s final play.

Another game that will receive plenty of press coverage next week will be a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship Game between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Green Bay registered a 21-14 win as 3 ½-point road favorites in that particular contest on its way to winning the Super Bowl two weeks later over the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler likely circled this game on the schedule after being knocked out with a knee injury early in the third quarter. It caused a lot of fans and media members alike to question his toughness and ability to serve as the franchise’s offensive leader.

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
09/18/11 17-*12-*1 58.62% +*1900 Detail
09/12/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
09/11/11 8-*18-*0 30.77% -*5900 Detail
09/08/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
Totals 27-*34-*1 44.26% -*5200


Monday, September 19

Game Score Status Pick Amount

St. Louis - 8:30 PM ET N.Y. Giants -7 500

N.Y. Giants - Under 44 500

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Bettors backing Giants in Monday Night Football Article

Las Vegas and offshore sportsbooks are moving the pointspread for Monday Night Football because of steady action coming in on the home favorite.

The New York Giants opened as low as 4.5-point chalk but are now touchdown favorites in tonight’s contest against the St. Louis Rams. Online book SportsInteraction is being even more cautious listing the Rams at +8, although Las Vegas bookmakers seem to think the line will close with the Giants favored by 7.

“I don’t see us going higher,” Wynn Las Vegas race and sports director Johnny Avello told *********** Monday afternoon.

The MGM/Mirage is dealing Giants -7 and has been since late Sunday night. The book has been getting two-way action since the move to 7 according to oddsmaker Jeff Stoneback.

Stoneback told *********** the MGM/Mirage had the game circled (lower limit bets only) early in the week but professional players still came in and bet the limit on New York at -5.5. Stoneback says the public got in on the action late yesterday, grabbing the Giants at -6.5 and forcing his book to move to -7.

The Wynn also took a large amount of sharp action on the G-Men.

“They came in at 5.5 and 6,” Avello said. “The Giants need a win and they’re catching a team without its running back. The Rams are improved but they’ve only won a couple road games over the last few years.”

St. Louis won just two of eight road games last season but went 5-3 against the spread. The Rams had lost 14 of their last 16 away games before last season.

Running back Steven Jackson is dealing with a leg injury and is listed as doubtful for the Rams. If you have any feedback or suggestions for our Editorial Team, please contact us at Editorial

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St. Louis Rams at New York Giants: Tale of the tape

If you’re new to our Tale of the Tape pieces, we use them to dig into stand-alone college games throughout the season. They’re stat heavy, hard-hitting, and quick, so that you’ll be able to rip through them and still have time to put a bet in while you’re stocking the fridge with beer.

St. Louis Rams at New York Giants (-6.5, 44)

OFFENSE

The Rams head into this one banged up with running back Steven Jackson (quad) and wideout Danny Amendola (elbow) out for this one. Sam Bradford will start after a finger injury on this throwing hand caused some concern, but he has just one touchdown and six interceptions in his last six starts.

St. Louis produced 154 yards on the ground last week with Cadillac Williams accounting for 91 of those yards on 19 carries after Jackson went down with his injury. Bradford completed 17 of his 31 attempts for 188 yards (6.3 yards per attempt).

Eli Manning threw for 268 yards last week against Washington but could be without wideout Hakeem Nicks (knee), who had 122 of those receiving yards. Manning was also threw an interception and was sacked four times. The running game wasn’t very impressive either, with Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs combining for only 73 yards on 19 carries.

Third down was where the Giants really shot themselves in the foot last week. They converted just one of 10 third down attempts, the lowest rate from any club in Week 1. Of course, the Rams are right behind the Giants with a 16.67 percent success rate on third down against the Eagles.

Edge: Rams

DEFENSE

The Rams were in Mike Vick’s face all day last week, sacking him four times and holding him to 5.8 yards per attempt as he completed just 43.8 percent of his passes. Defensive linemen Chris Long, James Hall and Fred Robbins put up 25 sacks last season. However, the run defense is a different story. St. Louis gave up 236 yards on the ground against Philadelphia and should see a healthy dose of the run Monday.

The Giants expect to get pass rusher Justin Tuck back for this one, which should be a big boost after the club registered four sacks in Week 1. New York allowed Rex Grossman to throw for 305 yards, but did hold the Redskins to a 33 percent conversion rate on third down and gave up only 74 yards on the ground.

The Rams are giving up 6.1 yards per play on defense while the Giants are surrendering 5.2 yards per play.

Edge: Giants

SPECIAL TEAMS

St. Louis’ Josh Brown hit two of three field goal attempts last week after hitting 22 of 29 kicks last year, while the Giants missed their only attempt against Washington. New York holds a slight advantage in the punting game, averaging 45.2 yards per punt to St. Louis’ 42.3.

The Rams will miss Amendola in the return game, but New York has had issues with its special teams for a long time now and that’s unlikely to change Monday.

Edge: Rams

WORD ON THE STREET

“They’re not going to try to trick you or anything like that. They’re going to run the ball at you and say stop it if you can. They’ve got a nice power running game and Eli can make plays when he has to. I’m pretty sure they’re going to try to run the ball on us, and with good reason. We didn’t stop the run real well last week.” - Rams defensive end Chris Long.

“They are going to be coming in here fighting. They don’t want to be 0-2 and we don’t want to be 0-2. We’re not underestimating them at all. But definitely we are going to come out and be aggressive and do what we do.” - Giants center David Baas

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION

New York Giants 24, St. Louis Rams 14

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 2 through the eyes of an ordinary bettor

The bad guys were handing out money at halftime yesterday. And that doesn’t happen often.

Green Bay trailed 13-6 at the break and the second half spread surfaced at -8½. Covering with a field goal was great value so I tried to get down as quickly as possible.

Clicked the mouse and got the dreaded line change alert. You know how this feels; your heart sinks into your gut the same way it does when red and blue lights are flashing in your rear-view mirror.

But for once, the spread moved in my favor, -8 (-105). I confirmed the bet.

Went back to the board, hit refresh a few times and did a double-take when the number dropped, -7 (-120). Somebody had thousands of dollars of faith in the Panthers. I took the Packers again.

Cam Newton backdoored the original spread with a garbage score but the Pack’s slow start saved my odd and losing week.

I don’t understand why books even put up halftime spreads in these situations -- a quality, heavily-favored team trailing by six or more to an inferior team. These scenarios don’t always come through but I bet they cash at least 70 percent of the time.

It happened on Thanksgiving last year when the Pats were down a touchdown at Detroit. It happened last week when the Chargers trailed by 10 to Minnesota.

I’m guessing books don’t want to inflate these spreads too much because sharp bettors would have huge middle opportunities. So that creates an opportunity for us, we just have to be ready.

The Good…

Week 2 was all about the second half.

Josh Freeman has had more comebacks than the Bad News Bears. His “youngry” Bucs feasted on the we-can’t-hold-a-lead Vikings after trailing by 17 at halftime.

Plenty of pro cappers wrote off Tampa this year, citing last season’s favorable schedule. But how can you bet against heart? And confidence can overcome a multitude of shortcomings, just ask Rex Ryan.

Ralph Wilson doesn’t miss a home opener in 52 years and then skips out on the best one ever. The Bungalow Bills were down 21-3 coming out of the break but then Mr. Harvard dissected the defense like Will Hunting does algorithms.

Don’t talk to me about Bill Belichick, Sean Payton or Mike McCarthy; Chan Gailey is the best play-caller in the NFL. There wasn’t a body in a five-yard radius of David Nelson when he caught the game-winning pass from six yards out, which is crazy. Buffalo had five touchdowns on five possessions in the second half, which is ridiculous.

The Bad…

I knew it was a square bet when I made it. The spread was just too good to be true. Dallas looked great in Week 1 and the Niners struggled against the worst team in football. Oddsmakers knew that I knew this, and they knew I couldn’t resist backing the road chalk.

I was fortunate to push, but unlucky to not cover. Jesse Holley should be embarrassed, chased down by a safety. If he dives from the five, the good guys win.


Jim Harbaugh is an attention monger. He got his wish because his team will be in the highlights this week, but for all the wrong reasons. I love the guy, but how are you going to decline a penalty after it gives you a first down? I don’t care that your kicker just hit a 55-yarder, take the yards and grind the clock.

Toddy Haley is also a gambling man but he may be tossed on the unemployment heap soon. The Chiefs have been outscored 89-10 the first two weeks.

Eric Berry was their best defensive player, he’s gone. Jamaal Charles was their best offensive player, he’s gone. And Matt Cassel is nothing more than another overhyped USC quarterback, just like the retiree, just like Dirty Sanchez.

The Ugly…

Last week I said it would be tough for the Seahawks to score double digits against a pissed off Pitt defense. They couldn’t even muster a single digit.

Seattle must have missed the memo that this is a scoring league. But it’s hard to find the end zone without an offensive line -- 10 sacks in two weeks isn’t going to cut it. The Seahawks didn’t cross midfield until the fourth quarter Sunday.

Pete Carroll was an “offensive guru” in college but he’s not cut out to play with the big boys, just like his former quarterbacks. How is this team just a field-goal pup next weekend? The 12th Man better be on the field, literally.

The Leans…

Bills +9½ vs. Patriots - I hope this number gets to 10, and with the way the Pats are playing it probably will.

Saints -4 vs. Texans - The Superdome brings out the scary in New Orleans. Houston’s game in South Beach was closer than it looked.

Raiders +3½ vs. Jets - This is the gritty kind of game Oakland pulls out, I’m just disappointed the club is getting so much love from the books.

Lions -3½ at Vikings - Could be a bad spot but I see no reason to stop backing this team.

NFL Record: 3-2, $80

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