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**StarDust Bum** · 09-12-2011, 11:31 PM

New Orleans Saints Meet Chicago Bears

The New Orleans Saints will look to put their defensive woes behind them and bounce back from a season-opening loss to Green Bay when they host the Chicago Bears in their home opener on Sunday.

Game time is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. (ET) with television coverage from the Superdome provided by FOX. New Orleans (0-1) opened as a 6 ½-point favorite with a total of 47. The NFC North won all three head-to-head matchups with NFC South counterparts in Week 1.

The Saints surrendered more than 40 points for the second straight game in a 42-34 loss to the Packers last Thursday. They will face a Chicago team that looked like the defending NFC North champions in a 30-12 rout of Atlanta on Sunday.

Defense remains a major concern for the Saints after letting Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers shred their secondary for 312 yards and three touchdowns. They had seen former Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck do the same thing back on January 8, when he threw for 272 yards and four touchdowns in a 41-36 playoff upset as a 9 ½-point home underdog.

New Orleans QB Drew Brees nearly rallied his team back against the Pack, but rookie RB Mark Ingram was stopped at the 1-yard line on the game’s final drive as time expired. Brees tossed three touchdowns and had 419 yards through the air, but his team fell short as 4 ½-point underdogs but helped cash the ‘over’ on the total of 47 ½ points.

He has not fared well against the Bears in the past, going 0-3 against them with five touchdowns, five interceptions and a passer rating of 66.4 in three career meetings. However, all of those games were played in Chicago.

The Bears (1-0) will be looking to expose the Saints defensively yet again behind QB Jay Cutler, who improved to 23-0 all-time when he has a passer rating over 100 after torching the Falcons with 312 yards and two touchdowns. They covered as 1-point home underdogs and saw the total go ‘over’ 40 ½ points.

Cutler successfully rebounded from his last appearance at Soldier Field on January 23, when he was forced to leave the team’s 21-14 NFC Championship game loss against the Packers with a knee injury. He showed no lingering effects of that injury and could be the difference on Sunday.

New Orleans will be without a couple key players, including starting defensive end Will Smith, who will miss his second straight game due to a two-game suspension as part of the StarCaps case. They did not get much pressure on Rodgers in the season opener, sacking him twice for 16 yards.

Cutler was sacked five times by Atlanta for 43 yards but still found ways to get the ball to his open receivers.

Saints wide receiver Marques Colston will also miss the game due to a broken collarbone suffered against Green Bay. Colston made six catches for 81 yards against the Packers and is expected to miss the next month.

New Orleans center Olin Kreutz will be facing his former team for the first time after turning down an offer from Chicago in the preseason. Kreutz had spent all of his previous 13 seasons in the NFL with the Bears but reportedly did not feel their offer was good enough for him to re-sign with them.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-12-2011, 11:43 PM

'Boys bail out Books

September 12, 2011

Every sports book in Las Vegas had an exciting, energetic atmosphere on Sunday that spread throughout the casino thanks to the NFL. There is nothing quite like a football Sunday in Las Vegas where just about everyone in the casino has some type of rooting interest and can’t help but get involved with the oohh’s and aahh’s of each play as eight games are on simultaneously.
You could argue that a lively full craps game generates some excitement, but only 30 to 50 people at the game. A major boxing match generates a lively audience at the property it’s at, but those types of events are so few and far in between that many of us have forgotten the vibe it gave us. NASCAR weekend and the NFR Rodeo also create a great festive atmosphere, but that’s only once a year.

No, the NFL is without a doubt the king of Las Vegas excitement. Nothing tops it and likely never will. Twice a week between the Sunday and Monday games, for 17 weeks and then the playoffs, the sports book becomes the top destination point of the casino. This past Sunday was an eye-opening reminder of just powerful the game is to Las Vegas as a whole.

The first weekend went well for the sports books thanks to the Dallas Cowboys covering in Sunday night’s game. The first wave of morning and afternoon games went the books way with the favorites only going 5-7, but the mounting parlay risk from all those games carried over into a powder keg of liability on the Jets that could have wiped away all the win from the day had New York won by seven points or more.

The Cowboys played very well for the majority of the game, but still found a way to lose 27-24. However, in Las Vegas spread terms, the Cowboys won.

The best games of the day for sports books, before the Dallas game, were played in the morning.

“The morning games were good for us with a great mix of favorites and underdogs winning,” said Coast Resorts race and sports director Bob Scucci. “Our best games of the day were the Steelers and Browns going down which beat all straight bets, parlays and teasers attached to them.”

As big as those games were for the sports books, one game surprisingly showed the most impact on the day as a loss.

“The game that really hurt us was Buffalo,” said Scucci. “We had equal action on parlays with the Chiefs, but the game had been steamed from plus-6 all the way to 3 ½ on straight bets. We also got beat with the Texans which everyone seemed to be on before and after the Manning news. We got beat the punch on the news for a couple pops on the Texans.”

The Bills defense thrashed one of the best running teams in football on their home field 41-7 while the Manning-less Colts looked like worst offensive team in football with only 236 total yards, the bulk of which came in the second half after being down 34-0. The Texans won 34-7 despite Arian Foster not playing.

Other games saw a mix of public and sharp money that balanced them out making it kind of a wash beginning with the dream team, the Philadelphia Eagles.

“We found some sharp play on the Rams, but almost everyone bet the Eagles in parlays, said Scucci. “On kind of the same note, we had sharp play on the Redskins, but everyone had the Giants on parlays.”

The Eagles were five-point favorites but dropped to 4 by kickoff, despite a 5-to-2 ratio favoring them in ticket counts. The Giants had been strong three-point favorites since April when the first line came out and slowly started to be bet against by the sharps over the weekend until finally closing at -1 ½.

The Cardinals were public favorites with everyone loving the relationship they saw in preseason between Kevin Kolb and Larry Fitzgerald. Choosing Arizona also became easier because of the perception that rookie quarterback Cam Newton might struggle in his first road game. No one could have predicted what last years Heisman trophy winner would end up doing. Newton set a rookie debut record by throwing for 422 yards and led his team to a near upset win.

The 28-21 Cardinals win landed right on the number, with some getting the Cardinals at -6 ½ in a short window of opportunity on Saturday. With the bulk of the sides being refunded because of the push, it kept a large quantity of parlays with both sides alive heading into the late game making the Jets game the most important of the day.

It was also interesting to see the Chargers falling out of favor with the public. They had been burned all last season by Norv Turner’s team as large favorites and had finally had enough. The Chargers usually have one of the largest ticket count disparities weekly, but this week the public was split and were taking the Vikings (+9) almost as often as the Chargers.

The Chargers once again looked like the troubled team from last season, and in some cases worse. They avoided the upset and won 24-17, but the Vikings got the money.

This weeks public games will be the Steelers (-13) over the Seahawks, Dallas (-3) at San Francisco, Baltimore (-5.5) at Tennessee and the Jets (-10) against the Jaguars.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-12-2011, 11:55 PM

Bears show they've still got some bite

Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - On a day where remembrance was first and foremost on the minds of virtually all Americans, the team just about everyone forgot heading into the 2011 NFL season was making more than a few prognosticators think again about their forecasts for the coming months.

The Chicago Bears generally haven't been part of the discussion when the topic of NFC contenders is broached, despite credentials that would suggest the 2010 conference runners-up undeniably deserve a mention alongside this year's presumed Fab Four of Green Bay, Philadelphia, Atlanta, New Orleans. The defending NFC North champions proved they too belong in the equation, however, by producing perhaps the most eyebrow-raising result of the Week 1 Sunday schedule, a 30-12 victory over the helium-heavy Falcons that was every bit as convincing as the final score indicated.

Chicago's tried and true defense stopped an Atlanta attack that entered Soldier Field with a newfound big-play reputation dead in its tracks, unleashing a furiously persistent pass rush that sacked Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan five times and induced three turnovers, including a Ryan fumble that was returned for a third-quarter touchdown by veteran lynchpin Brian Urlacher that essentially sealed the win.

Jay Cutler threw for 312 yards and 2 TDs against the Falcons.
The unit kept the reigning NFC South title-holding Falcons out of the end zone the entire afternoon, with Atlanta's lone touchdown coming on an interception by defensive end Kroy Biermann with the game already out of reach.

"They are still carrying us, they're still doing some things out there that are unbelievable," Bears quarterback Jay Cutler said of his team's defense. "I mean, the pressure they give on the quarterback and the way they run to the ball, it's a tough defense to go against."

The Chicago offense certainly had its moments as well, with Cutler (22-of-32, 312 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) by and large outperforming the more highly-regarded Ryan and running back Matt Forte offering another example of why he's one of the game's most overlooked impact players. The fourth-year talent racked up 158 yards from scrimmage in the win, 56 of which came on a nifty catch-and-run for a touchdown late in the first quarter that helped trigger the Bears' surge.

Now, champions are never crowned in a season's first week, and enough conspicuous chinks in the armor -- like a still-shaky offensive line that allowed Cutler to be sacked five times by the Falcons -- continue to be present for those who were skeptical of Chicago's 2010 success carrying over to this year (and guilty as charged here, by the way) to remain not entirely bullish on the Bears. However, Sunday's strong showing is clear proof this is a team that shouldn't be written off, either.

As for the Falcons, winners of a conference-best 13 games a year ago, the hangover from last January's 48-21 home loss to the Packers in the NFC Divisional Playoffs seems to have carried over into the new league year. A winless preseason was followed by Sunday's sloppy display in which Atlanta's obvious offensive mistakes were compounded by poor tackling and several blown assignments on the other side of the ball.

Head coach Mike Smith and his staff are going to need to come up with a remedy soon, especially with a motivated Michael Vick leading a high-powered Philadelphia team into the Georgia Dome this coming weekend.
SUNDAY AWARDS
In recognition of the 10th anniversary of the September 11, 2001 attacks on The Pentagon and World Trade Center, this week's awards will have a theme intended to honor all the brave men and women who gave or risked their lives on that tragic and infamous day in American history.

The Never Say Die Award: New York Jets. It's entirely fitting that the team that was representing Manhattan soil in the NFL's 9/11 memorial came through with the gutsiest and ,most inspiring effort of the day. Thoroughly outplayed by the Dallas Cowboys over the first three quarters of Sunday's primetime headliner at the newly-named MetLife Stadium, Gang Green rallied for 17 unanswered points over the final 12 minutes to pull out an improbable 27-24 triumph. Nothing new for Rex Ryan's charges, however. The Jets won five times in either overtime or the final two minutes of regulation during last year's march to the AFC Championship Game.

Rescue Worker Award: Mike Scifres, Chargers. The San Diego punter was forced into an unfamiliar double duty when kicker Nate Kaeding injured his knee on the opening play of Sunday's game against Minnesota, but came through with flying colors. Scifres knocked through all three of his point-after attempts in the Bolts' 24-17 come-from-behind victory, and also drilled a game-tying 40-yard field goal in the fourth quarter.

Unsung Hero Award: Vonta Leach, Ravens. The All-Pro fullback and free-agent acquisition immediately earned his stripes with his new team, as Leach's devastating lead blocking helped spring Ray Rice and Ricky Williams loose for a combined 170 rushing yards in Baltimore's authoritative rout of AFC North rival Pittsburgh. The Ravens' ground total was nearly three times of what the Steelers' defense permitted on a per-game basis during last season's march to Super Bowl XLV.

A few other final observations from the first Sunday of the NFL's post-lockout phase:

Most impressive team: Baltimore. Boy, did the Ravens ever make a statement in their 35-7 manhandling of the defending AFC champion Steelers. An unbelievably sharp and focused Baltimore outfit pushed a disappointingly unprepared Pittsburgh team around in every facet imaginable, with quarterback Joe Flacco tossing three touchdown passes to complement the Ravens' punishing ground game and the defense forcing an astounding seven turnovers. Five of them (3 interceptions, 2 fumbles) were committed by Ben Roethlisberger, who entered the contest having beaten Baltimore in six consecutive starts under center.

Most surprising outcome: Buffalo's 41-7 victory at Kansas City. While no one should be shocked over the Chiefs' obvious regression compared to last year's unforeseen playoff run, losing by 34 points to a team coming off a four-win campaign at a home venue where the Chiefs dominated in 2010 was completely unexpected. A most encouraging beginning for the rebuilding Bills, who lost their first eight outings under Chan Gailey a season ago.

Cam Newton's not an icon just yet, but the electrifying rookie was surely entertaining during a record-setting pro debut. The 2011 No. 1 overall draft choice, thought to be behind in his development as a pure passer, turned every head in the building at Arizona's University of Phoenix Stadium by throwing for 422 yards and connecting with veteran wideout Steve Smith for two long touchdowns in his first regular-season game as the Carolina Panthers' field general. Newton's yardage total was the highest ever for a quarterback in his initial time out, and tied Detroit's Matt Stafford (2009) for the most by a rookie in league history, though it still wasn't enough to prevent the Panthers from sustaining a 28-21 loss to the Cardinals.

Incidentally, Newton's first career regular-season start produced nearly 400 passing yards more than Donovan McNabb totaled in his 156th. The declining veteran had a brutal introductory performance as a Minnesota Viking on Sunday, mustering an anemic 39 yards while completing just 7-of-15 attempts.

Sunday's other rookie signal-caller turned in a positive debut as well, with Cincinnati youngster Andy Dalton hitting on 10-of-15 throws for 81 yards and a touchdown to help the Bengals to a 27-17 road win at fellow AFC North member Cleveland. The effort was a little bittersweet for the 23-year-old, however, as Dalton did not play the entire second half after injuring his right wrist.

From the "Who needs ya" department: Five days after releasing regular quarterback David Garrard, the Jacksonville Jaguars came through with a 16-14 triumph over AFC South foe Tennessee behind an admirably sharp display from Luke McCown in the journeyman's first NFL start since 2007. The 30-year-old, who entered the game with a 1-6 career mark as a starter, threw for 175 yards on 17-of-24 passing and was not intercepted.

From the "We need ya" department: Indianapolis' first game without Peyton Manning at the controls of the offense since 1997 turned out to be predictably disastrous, with the Kerry Collins-led group mustering an un-Colts-like 236 total yards and a 1-for-9 success rate on third downs in the team's non- competitive 34-7 defeat at Houston.

Deja Vu: San Diego's 2010 season was sabotaged by ineptitude in the special- teams area, which prompted the team's luring of highly-credentialed coach Rich Bisaccia away from the Buccaneers over the winter. So naturally, the remodeled group gives up a 103-yard kickoff return touchdown to Minnesota's Percy Harvin in Sunday's decision over the Vikings.

Quote of the Week: While listening to Sirius NFL Radio's outstanding Tailgate Show while driving for my Sunday morning coffee, got a good chuckle after hearing host Adam Schein refer to the Seattle-San Francisco game as the Seahawks opening up the "Tarvaris Jackson Error" in reference to the maligned quarterback's first go-around with his new team. As it turned out, Jackson wasn't entirely bad in Seattle's 33-17 loss to the 49ers. The ex-Viking threw a pair of second-half touchdown passes to orchestrate a Seahawks' comeback attempt while playing behind perhaps the league's worst offensive line that surrendered five sacks on Sunday.

Tell Me Why: Pittsburgh didn't have a home game on Opening Weekend? While the NFL's league-wide pregame ceremony commemorating the September 11 attacks was both poignant and overall well crafted, not holding a game in the Steel City -- some 65 miles from the crash site of United Flight 93 on that fateful day -- was a huge oversight on the part of Commissioner Goodell and the home office.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-12-2011, 11:59 PM

CHICAGO (12 - 6) at NEW ORLEANS (11 - 6) - 9/18/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 47-69 ATS (-28.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (10 - 7) at DETROIT (6 - 10) - 9/18/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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JACKSONVILLE (8 - 8) at NY JETS (13 - 6) - 9/18/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (8 - 8) at BUFFALO (4 - 12) - 9/18/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (5 - 11) at WASHINGTON (6 - 10) - 9/18/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 27-44 ATS (-21.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 46-76 ATS (-37.6 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALTIMORE (13 - 5) at TENNESSEE (6 - 10) - 9/18/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SEATTLE (8 - 10) at PITTSBURGH (14 - 5) - 9/18/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 48-76 ATS (-35.6 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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GREEN BAY (14 - 6) at CAROLINA (2 - 14) - 9/18/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (10 - 6) at MINNESOTA (6 - 10) - 9/18/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (5 - 11) at INDIANAPOLIS (10 - 7) - 9/18/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (6 - 10) at SAN FRANCISCO (6 - 10) - 9/18/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (6 - 10) at MIAMI (7 - 9) - 9/18/2011, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (9 - 7) at NEW ENGLAND (14 - 3) - 9/18/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 136-104 ATS (+21.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 38-20 ATS (+16.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (4 - 12) at DENVER (4 - 12) - 9/18/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 100-132 ATS (-45.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 1-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (10 - 7) at ATLANTA (13 - 4) - 9/18/2011, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 143-101 ATS (+31.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST LOUIS (7 - 9) at NY GIANTS (10 - 6) - 9/19/2011, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-13-2011, 12:03 AM

NFL odds: Week 2 opening line report

Week 2 is the most interesting week for oddsmaking and handicapping.

We’ve finally seen games that count, but they comprise such a small sample.

Are the Chiefs that bad? Are the Ravens that good?

Where was the Falcons’ explosiveness? Did Cam Newton prove something with 422 passing yards?

How bettors and oddsmakers answer dozens of questions posed by Week 1 will be critical in Week 2.

“Week 2 is often the best of the season for us, because we see such extreme shifts based on extreme performances,” Las Vegas handicapper Dave Malinksky told ***********. “And this season is no exception, with the oddsmakers having to alter their thinking on so many teams, trying to keep the public money balanced as folks look for those emerging “Play On” and “Play Against” teams.

“Remember that the rule of thumb for the betting public tends to be, ‘Accept Week 1 as gospel’ rather than aberrations.”

Malinsky believes oddsmakers downgraded Atlanta and Kansas City too much, noting the Chiefs did not go hard in the preseason and that may have played a role in Buffalo blowing them out. He thinks the Colts might not have been downgraded enough.

“Meanwhile, the Lions have quickly become darlings, which is pushing this week’s line too far,” Malinsky said, referring to Detroit laying a touchdown or more at home against K.C. “And [oddsmakers] will have to be careful about giving the Texans too much credit for KO’ing a Colts team that did not put up much of a fight.”

Pete Korner, founder of The Sports Club oddsmaking service, told *********** his team faced difficult decisions for Week 2 “because the performances in Week 1 didn’t match the quality of the teams…More data means you can tell whether one game was a fluke or the start of something.”

For example, Atlanta looked horrible in losing 30-12 at Chicago.

“We sent out Atlanta -1 [vs. Philly] and now it’s Philly favored from 1 to 2.5,” Korner said, acknowledging it was a bad line. “It’s a very tough game between two very good teams, but Atlanta showed so poorly. I think Atlanta comes through big time. I would not be surprised if it comes back to a pick ‘em.”

Cleveland-Indy was another hard line to set. The Sports Club suggested clients open it at Browns -2.

“It just looks fluky,” Korner said, noting each team’s pedigree and recent history. “But I said, ‘If I’m going to be wrong, I’m not going to be wrong on the Indy side, because they had an awful preseason, awful first game. I’ll take my chances if it gets bet over to Indy.”

Offshores agreed. They opened it at Cleveland -3, and it’s been bet down only to 2.5.

The Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook is a case study in Week 1’s impact, because the Hilton releases NFL lines a week ahead of time. Week 2 lines went up a week ago.

The Redskins were laying 2.5 against Arizona a week ago but now are laying 4.5. That’s a direct result of how they looked in their 28-14 handling of the Giants.

“Rex Grossman looked very comfortable, and they played with a lot of confidence, energy and enthusiasm,” SuperBook manager Jay Kornegay told ***********. “The key is how good Grossman looked. Of course, he can change colors at any times.”

The Jets were laying 8.5 against Jacksonville a week ago. Now they’re laying 10. And the Jets didn’t have an impressive debut.

“They were very fortunate” to beat the Cowboys,” Kornegay said. “It’s just that the popularity of the Jets is a little stronger than usual. And we don’t expect the Jets to look that bad again.”

In general, Kornegay said, he tries to make slight adjustments rather than knee-jerk reactions.

Biggest spreads of the week: Green Bay at Carolina (10.5, 46), Seattle at Pittsburgh (-13, 38.5)

Korner listed the Packers as 13-point favorites despite Newton’s heroics. Books opened lower, but Korner believes that will rise.

“Newton’s going to be facing a far different defense, and I don’t want to be stuck with the responsibility of giving out too short a number on Green Bay – they can score on anyone,” Korner said. “We’re telling [sportsbooks], even if we’re not right, stay higher. Make everyone bet Carolina. Because gameday it will all be on Green Bay.”

No one is selling the Steelers after one bad outing. All power rankings still have them near the top.

“We know Seattle is not going to be a force, and Pittsburgh is going to bounce back, but how much?” Korner said.

If that spread hits 14, however, underdog players will be tempted.

Smallest spread of the week: Dallas at San Francisco (3, 42)

This is one of a number of small spreads, including the Cleveland-Indy and Philly-Atlanta games discussed earlier.

Korner actually released Dallas-San Fran as a pick 'em.

"The Cowboys just blew Monday night's game and San Francisco looked very good, but we know there is a difference in talent and Dallas probably should be favored," Korner said. "But because of [Week 1] we shaded it down."

Still, most books opened the Niners as slight favorites.

Biggest total of the week: San Diego at New England (-7, 51)

There are no doubts about either offense, plus the Chargers just lost top defensive end Luis Castillo to a broken tibia.

Malinsky expects this total to rise. And he offered that opinion before New England ripped Miami for 500-plus passing yards in a 38-24 win.

“They have already been willing to go to 50 on the Philadelphia-Atlanta matchup,” he said. “That would tell us that a 52 might even be in play for this one.”

**StarDust Bum** · 09-13-2011, 12:11 AM

Teddy's tidbits: NFC Betting Notes

September 12, 2011 10:46PM

Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps simply don’t have.

Chicago Bears:

This offense came out of the gate looking completely in sync, despite a myriad of issues on the offensive line. Rookie left tackle Gabe Carimi (first round out of Wisconsin) had some real growing pains. Right guard Lance Louis left with an ankle injury and didn’t return. Jay Cutler got sacked five times and threw a bad interception. Still, the offense was terrific.

Cutler is now fully versed in his second year running the Mike Martz offense. There's a level of confidence and continuity here that we haven't seen in Chicago in quite some time, and there were absolutely no repercussions from last year’s playoff debacle against Green Bay. Seven different receivers caught at least two passes and we saw a handful of impressive catch and run big plays.

There are continuing concerns in the red zone though, with only one touchdown in three opportunities. Red zone effectiveness was a consistent problem for this team last year and throughout the preseason, and it’s been a problem for Martz’s offenses everywhere he’s been since he left St Louis.

Philadelphia Eagles:

For all the big name free agents signed in the offseason, this linebacking corps is young, inexperienced and made a ton of mistakes. The offensive line couldn’t protect Michael Vick, beaten repeatedly by the St Louis pass rush. Rookie center Jason Kelce got eaten alive in his debut. Philly ran some wildcat with Ronnie Brown, and that got blown up too.

The Eagles didn’t even dress their top three draft choices, an indication that they probably did not draft well this year. None of those factors mattered one iota, because Philly has something that other teams covet – legitimate playmakers. Vick was insane Sunday, making plays that nobody else in the NFL can make. It's the same story with DeSean Jackson. LeSean McCoy was a beast. This is going to be a very difficult offense to shut down for four quarters.

Atlanta Falcons:

The box score is going to show that Atlanta had a pretty good game, but turnovers were the difference. That’s simply not the case – the Falcons looked downright lousy on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Their offensive line got blown up with two first time starters getting their first opportunity: Joe Hawley (a fourth rounder out of UNLV last year) at center, and Justin Blalock (career backup since 2007) at right guard.

We saw repeated breakdowns on defense – poor tackling, bad angles, cornerbacks and safeties blowing coverages. The defense might be a tad bit faster than last year, but it didn’t look any better than the stop unit that got absolutely torched in their last meaningful game -- the 48-21 home blowout playoff loss to Green Bay. Matt Ryan had only one pass attempt longer than 20 yards until they were down 30-6 -- so much for rookie Julio Jones stretching defenses in his first game. Mike Smith did not have his team ready, plain and simple, despite the relatively even stats.

Detroit Lions:

Detroit’s special teams haven't been good for the better part of the last decade. They weren't any better Sunday, giving up a 78-yard return on the first kickoff of the season. Matthew Stafford, for all the hype, is still very green as an NFL starting QB - this was only his 14th career start. Until Detroit gets an offensive line, there will be growing pains. It’s a good thing WR Calvin Johnson can make plays that virtually no other receiver in the NFL can.

This defensive line is going to save that suspect secondary. What a dominant showing, blowing up play after play at the line of scrimmage. Is Ndomukong Suh the best nose tackle in the NFL already, one game into his second season in the league? I'm impressed with offensive coordinator Scott Linehan's play calling; he really kept the Bucs defense off balance. Plus, the gutsy fourth down call in the first half was the huge momentum changer in this one. I respect coaches that take those kinds of risks in sensible situations.

St. Louis Rams:

Very disheartening performance from St Louis today. Their top three offensive weapons – QB Sam Bradford, RB Stephen Jackson and WR Danny Amendola – all left early with injuries. Steve Spagnuolo brought pressure all afternoon long, but the Rams cornerbacks got beaten downfield again and again.

Linebacker James Laurinaitis was all over the field, playing like a star, but his linebacking cohorts were not good. I was not impressed with this supposedly "improved" receiving corps. We saw dropped balls, mental errors (gotta get past the sticks on those third down throws), and an inability to get open. There was a noticeable class difference between St Louis and Philly in this one

Washington Redskins:

The Redskins came out taking shots down the field. Rex Grossman has a downfield arm, one of the myriad of reasons he won the starting job in training camp. But Grossman's accuracy has been a problem from Day 1 of his NFL career. For all the accolades he received today (9.0 yards per attempt), he missed several wide open receivers and was lucky to be going against a bottom tier defense because he threw a handful of balls that probably should have been intercepted.

Wide receiver Anthony Armstrong has great speed, but he’s got the hands of a defensive lineman. Washington’s offensive line got eaten up – no room to run for Tim Hightower, while Grossman had pressure in his face repeatedly. The Skins still have no kicker as Graham Gano couldn’t hit a 39-yarder, but there were certainly bright spots, particularly on the defensive side of the football.

Tackles Barry Cofield and Chris Neild blew up the line of scrimmage. Their last two No. 1 picks, Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan, both made huge plays – a blocked field goal and an interception returned for a touchdown. If nothing else, the losing culture and attitude in DC appear to be on the way out in the second year of the Mike Shanahan era.

Seattle Seahawks:

This offensive line got eaten up on nearly every passing play. The combined 27 career starts from this OL is the fewest in the NFL. Two rookies started on the right side today: guard John Moffitt and tackle James Carpenter. That OL career starts number will go up when one of their big free agent signings, guard Robert Gallery gets healthy, but who knows when that will be.

With this line, you can understand why Tavaris Jackson, not Charlie Whitehurst, won the starting QB job -- they need a QB with mobility. The Seahawks instructed Leon Washington to run all the kickoffs out of the end zone, desperate to find big plays from somewhere. Then they started the next two drives from their own 14 and own 16 before abandoning the strategy. That came two full quarters before their punt and kick return meltdown cost them any chance of winning, as well as their pointspread cover.

Minnesota Vikings:

The return game with Percy Harvin is still in play for the Vikes, even after the new kickoff rules and their defensive line played well, even with three new starters to go along with Jared Allen. Defensive end Brian Robison made some big plays, replacing the departed Ray Edwards. His hit on Philip Rivers caused a key interception just before halftime.

That said, the DL imploded during crunch time with penalties and fatigue issues. Donovan McNabb’s first pass as a Viking was a tipped pass interception setting up a TD the other way. He didn’t get any better as the game progressed. Minnesota netted just 28 total yards on their 17 pass plays, and gained a grand total of 21 yards for the entire second half. That are truly woeful offensive numbers and very bad news for a team trying to erase the memories of their 2010 last place finish.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-13-2011, 06:58 PM

Minnesota Vikings, Tampa Bay Buccaneers Week 2

Hoping to recapture some of the magic from two years ago when they acquired another veteran quarterback, the jury remains out on the Minnesota Vikings’ recent addition of Donovan McNabb, who struggled in his first regular-season start for the Vikes last Sunday at San Diego.

The next chance for comparisons to Brett Favre, circa 2009, comes Sunday when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers pay a 1:00 p.m. (ET) visit to the Metrodome in a battle of teams looking to avoid 0-2 breaks from the gate.

Even before McNabb was added in the summer, NFC North sources were wondering how new offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave’s schemes would resonate; answers remain elusive after last week's performance.

Offensive line problems that surfaced in the summer when, among other things, grossly overweight LT Bryant McKinnie was released, did not abate in the Vikings opener. Moreover, insiders were voicing concerns throughout the preseason about McNabb’s rapport (or lack thereof) with a new-look receiving corps still dealing with the departure of Sidney Rice to the Seahawks.

Those articulating such fears now seem omniscient after the former Eagles and Redskins pilot completed only 7-of-15 passes for a measly 39 yards, rarely daring to throw downfield in the opener vs. the Chargers. Minnesota head coach Leslie Frazier stated the obvious after the game, noting the Vikes need to better balance their offense.

At the moment, it looks like RB Adrian Peterson and not much else in the Twin Cities, although the always-dangerous Percy Harvin did bring the opening kickoff back 103 yards for a touchdown at Qualcomm. Peterson rushed for 98 yards vs. the Chargers, well over half of Minnesota’s puny 187 yards worth of offense in the opener.

We suspect the Vikings could be a slow start away from embarking upon a full-scale rebuild mode featuring Florida State rookie QB Christian Ponder, so the clock is ticking on McNabb. In the meantime, it looks as if Minnesota will rely upon its defense, led by emerging LB Chad Greenway, to give it a chance most weeks. Star DT Kevin Williams will miss this encounter vs. the Bucs due to an ongoing suspension.

There’s some urgency attached to this matchup for the Bucs, too, although not quite as much as if NFC South rivals Atlanta and New Orleans won their openers. Instead, every team in the division (including Carolina) lost in Week 1.

Tampa Bay is going to need to display some improvement from a pass rush to avoid an 0-2 start. The unit ranked last in the NFC with 26 sacks in 2010 and didn’t get to Detroit QB Matthew Stafford once in last week’s 27-20 loss to the Lions. It's hoped upgrades to the pass rush will come from the two top draft choices, defensive ends Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers. Running into an offense as discombobulated as the current Viking attack could be a blessing.

Expect Tampa Bay to focus a bit more on establishing the run this week after almost eschewing the infantry completely in the opener, when QB Josh Freeman ended up leading all Buc rushers with only 26 yards. The menacing LeGarrette Blount, who figured to carry the workload in the backfield, has already expressed his displeasure at his mere five carries in the opener and the offensive imbalance. Coach Raheem Morris agrees.

“That’s not how we want to win games,” Morris told the Tampa Tribune. “We want to win with Blount bludgeoning you for 130 yards and being efficient (with Freeman).”

How well the Bucs balance things will likely determine if they return home at .500 or take an 0-2 mark into a crucial early-season division contest when they host Atlanta next week.

Early odds on the game have the Vikings 3-point favorites at home with 40½ for the scoreboard tally. It’s worth noting that Tampa Bay excelled on the road last season, covering seven of eight chances against the number, and stands 9-1 vs. the mark its last 10 away from home. Buccaneers backers might appreciate the slight bonus the oddsmakers are providing at the Metrodome.

Meanwhile, even after notching the narrow cover at San Diego, the Vikings are still just 6-10-1 vs. the spread since last season.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-13-2011, 07:06 PM

Cleveland Browns At Colts NFL Betting Preview

Two teams trying to rebound from ugly Week 1 losses meet up in NFL betting action on Sunday, when the Indianapolis Colts play host to the Cleveland Browns. This 1:00 p.m. (ET) duel in Week 2 from Lucas Oil Field will be shown regionally on CBS.

Cleveland (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) was the subject of one of the more unexpected upsets in Week 1 after the Browns were knocked off by the Cincinnati Bengals, 27-17. Playing at home, the Browns were 6 ½-point favorites, and a popular pick that got people eliminated from their survivor pools.

If Cleveland is going to notch a road victory in Week 2, better play out of quarterback Colt McCoy will be needed. The former University of Texas standout only went 19-of-40 for 213 yards with two TDs and a pick against the Bengals.

In a West Coast offense, having a completion percentage of less than 50 percent is inexcusable, and this must improve if McCoy hopes to keep his job. However, he doesn't have a fantastic set of receivers, knowing that Mohamed Massaquoi is probably his only relatively consistent target.

As bad as Cleveland was in Week 1, there aren't many fan bases that are hitting the panic button more than in Indianapolis. The Colts (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) were handed one of their worst losses in team history when they were clocked 34-7 by the Houston Texans at Reliant Stadium, and the handwriting is clearly on the wall that their reign in the AFC South is about to be over.

Indianapolis has dominated its division for the last decade, winning the AFC South title all but once in that stretch. However, without Peyton Manning calling the shots under center, this offense just looks incredibly mediocre, and the defense, which has never been all that special, could be exposed even more than it has in recent years.

The Colts fell behind the Texans 34-0 last week at halftime before finally scoring in the fourth quarter. Head coach Jim Caldwell has to wonder whether or not he should be using Kerry Collins as his quarterback.

Collins went 16-of-31 for 197 yards with a TD, but he was also consistently slow in the pocket to make reads, and the end result was three Texans sacks, two of which resulted in lost fumbles.

Should Collins struggle this week, don't be surprised if Caldwell turns to Curtis Painter to see what he can do against the Browns' defense.

These two teams have met five times since Cleveland got its NFL team back. The Colts are a perfect 5-0 SU, but are only 2-2-1 ATS.

The Colts are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall, and just 1-5 ATS in their last six games played here at Lucas Oil Field. They're 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 as underdogs of less than a field goal, but Manning was at the helm for all 16 of those games.

Cleveland has gone just 1-6 ATS in its last seven September duels, and has failed to cover five straight games overall. However, the Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as road favorites.

This week, the Browns are 1 ½-point choices by the oddsmakers, while the total has been set at 37.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-13-2011, 07:08 PM

Oakland Raiders Underdogs At Buffalo Bills

The Oakland Raiders travel to Buffalo Sunday to take on the Bills as both teams attempt to improve to 2-0.

Opening kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. (ET) at Ralph Wilson Stadium, and will be televised on CBS. The Bills opened as an early 4-point favorite over the Raiders.

Buffalo (1-0) turned a lot of heads last Sunday, going on the road to demolish the Kansas City Chiefs 41-7 as a 4-point underdog. The Bills had more points than any other NFL team in Week 1, and were tied with Baltimore and Houston for giving up the fewest.

The Bills offense was very efficient, manufacturing points on seven of 14 drives while dominating time of possession with over 37 minutes of ball control. But perhaps even more impressive was the defense, which gave up only 213 yards of total offense.

Last season, Buffalo’s run defense was the team's Achilles heel, far and away the worst in the league surrendering 169.6 yards per game on the ground. But against a Kansas City team that gashed the defense for 274 rushing yards in 2010, Buffalo held Kansas City to just 108 yards on the ground.

The rush defense won’t have to wait long for another chance to prove itself with the NFL’s current leading rusher coming to town.

Oakland (1-0) also won its first game as a road underdog, topping Denver 23-20 as a 3-point underdog Monday night. Darren McFadden carried the load on offense, rushing for a league-high 150 yards on 22 carries. It was the first time the Raiders have opened their season with a win since 2002.

The Raiders defense looked outstanding for most of the night, highlighted by allowing just 38 yards rushing and forcing three turnovers. The defensive line imposed its will with five sacks on the night.

The question is whether or not Oakland can cut back on unnecessary penalties. Oakland is consistently among the most penalized teams in all of football, and got off to a terrible start Monday with 15 penalties for 131 yards. Against Denver, they were able to overcome it; but spotting an opponent that kind of yardage will come back to haunt them as the season goes on.

Buffalo hasn’t had a winning season since 2004, and Oakland hasn’t since 2002. Getting off to a 2-0 start would be a big step in the right direction for either team.

Opening lines on the Don Best odds screen had the total for Sunday’s game set at 41 ½. Oakland 'pushed' its Week 1 total, while Buffalo went ‘over’ the 39½-point line by themselves in the game at Kansas City.

The Raiders and Bills have met four times since 2002, with Oakland holding the 3-1 edge both straight up and ATS. Their last meeting came in 2008, when Buffalo edged out Oakland 24-23 at home but failed to cover as a 10-point favorite.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-13-2011, 07:10 PM

Baltimore Ravens Tackle Tennessee Titans

The Baltimore Ravens had an inspired win over their AFC North rival Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1. They look to avoid a letdown as a solid road favorite at the Tennessee Titans this Sunday.

Baltimore opened up as a 4-point favorite, but it’s up to six at the Don Best odds screen. The NFL betting total is 37 ½-points and CBS will have the 1:00 p.m. (ET) broadcast from LP Field in Nashville.

The Ravens dominated Pittsburgh 35-7 as 1-point home favorites. They intercepted Ben Roethlisberger three times and forced a team-record seven turnovers. That at least partially made up for last year’s playoff debacle when they blew a 21-7 halftime lead in the Steel City.

Coach John Harbaugh’s team is feeling good, but didn’t come out unscathed. Rookie Jimmy Smith (ankle) is expected to miss two weeks and Chris Carr (thigh) is questionable. Those are two key backup corners behind Lardarius Webb and Cary Williams. Domonique Foxworth is now the main depth.

Harbaugh know his Ravens can’t afford to be overconfident. They’re just 2-8 straight up and 1-7-2 against the spread in their last 10 games following a SU win of 14 points or more.

Quarterback Joe Flacco has the big arm that offensive coordinators love, but he’s had a penchant for making crucial errors, like in the playoff loss. The passing offense ranked 20th in the league last year (208 YPG) and had 215 last week with young tight ends Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta featured. Dickson adds a speed dimension over the departed Todd Heap.

The wide-out tandem of Anquan Boldin and Lee Evans are solid and the latter’s speed keeps defenses honest, even though he was held without a catch in his first game with the team. Tennessee’s secondary will have to ‘pick its poison’ on who to double team, with Flacco able to make the throws to all parts of the field.

The running game will also be a problem for the Titans. Ray Rice is one of the league’s best and had 107 yards last week. Ricky Williams (63 yards) has come over from Miami and looks like an upgrade on the former backup duo of Willis McGahee and Le’Ron McClain. Tennessee allowed 163 rushing yards at Jacksonville last week, 97 to Maurice Jones-Drew.

The Titans lost that Jacksonville opener 16-14, failing to take advantage of a team in turmoil after releasing quarterback David Garrard. They did make the final score respectable with a Matt Hasselbeck touchdown pass with 3:34 left, but still failed to ‘cover’ as one-point ‘dogs.

Mike Munchak had a rough debut replacing coach Jeff Fisher. The team finished last year in a freefall at just 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS.

Munchak got a tough break with Chris Johnson holding out all preseason before signing a huge deal. He’s the main focus of the offense, averaging over 1,500 yards his first three seasons, but was rusty last week with just 24 yards on nine carries (2.7 yard average).

Johnson needs to have at least 20 carries and 100 yards this week to make this game close. Baltimore allowed just 93.9 YPG rushing last year (ranked fifth) and 66 last week to Pittsburgh.

Hasselbeck was a somewhat surprise signing after leading Seattle to the playoffs. The almost 36-year-old can still play, but he’s learning a new offense and the offensive line struggled last week. That doesn’t bode well against the aggressive Ravens defense (four sacks versus Pitt).

Hasselbeck does have a legitimate outside threat with Kenny Britt (136 yards last week, two TDs) and Nate Washington can be effective. However, the Ravens secondary can handle them even with their injuries.

Tennessee defensive ends Derrick Morgan (knee) and Jason Jones (knee) could both return, which should help, but backup running back Javon Ringer (hip/back) is questionable. That puts even more pressure on Johnson to perform.

The Ravens were 6-4 SU and 6-3-1 ATS on the road last year, including the playoffs. They’re 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games as a road favorite. Tennessee was just 3-5 SU (4-4 ATS) at home last season.

This is the first meeting between the teams since the January 2009 playoffs. Baltimore won 13-10 as 3-point road ‘dogs, with Tennessee ‘covering’ the prior four meetings. The ‘under’ is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.

Weather should be partly cloudy and in the 70s.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-13-2011, 07:24 PM

4th Quarter Covers

September 13, 2011

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in many games. Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week including the epic Michigan-Notre Dame game. Each week there are teams that cover that didn’t deserve to and teams that likely should have taken the cash, get the details in this weekly column.

NCAA

Arizona State (-10) 37, Missouri 30

Arizona State took a 30-16 lead early in the fourth quarter, appearing poised to pull away for a comfortable win against Missouri Friday night. The Tigers answered however and then got a big stop to set up the tying score with less than three minutes to go in the game. Missouri was able to get the ball back and moved into field goal position but the 48-yard try missed. Arizona State scored in overtime but Missouri’s offense could not match the score, though the Tigers took the spread victory.

Kentucky (-10) 27, Central Michigan 13

For the second straight week Kentucky went late into the game before getting much of anything going on offense. Central Michigan led 13-6 at halftime but the Wildcats got a few big plays late in the third quarter to take the lead for the first time. With just seconds left in the third quarter Josh Clemons broke an 87-yard run to put Kentucky up 20-13, still short of the double-digit spread. Central Michigan was stopped after a long drive and then Kentucky burned the clock with a 13-play 85-yard drive to bring the margin to 14. Central Michigan had backdoor cover potential with the subsequent drive reaching the red zone but an interception ended the effort.

South Carolina (-3) 45, Georgia 42

This SEC opener featured a wild finish as South Carolina took an 8-point lead into the final quarter. Early in the final frame Georgia connected for a touchdown pass and then went for 2, getting the conversion to tie the game. After a South Carolina field goal, Georgia took the lead 35-31 with a 15-yard run with just over six minutes to go in the game. South Carolina answered quickly, going nearly 80 yards in three minutes to go up by three. Georgia then fumbled on the next possession, returned for a touchdown with just over three minutes to go, leaving South Carolina up by ten. Georgia would force a push with a quick scoring drive but they would not have the chance to get the ball again as the Gamecocks ran out the clock for the win.

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Virginia (-7.5) 34, Indiana 31

Virginia appeared in complete control against Indiana, leading 23-3 in the third quarter. Indiana scored to cut the lead to 23-10 and then got on a roll in the fourth quarter. Indiana scored early in the fourth to move to within six-points and then forced a fumble on Virginia’s next possession, returning the fumble 54 yards for a touchdown and the first lead for the Hoosiers. Indiana then quickly got the ball back with an interception and went right down the field to take a 31-23 lead with just over six minutes to go. Virginia put together a strong response with a long scoring drive and the 2-point conversion to tie the game with just over a minute to go. Rather than playing for overtime, Indiana was aggressive and a fumble after a sack gave Virginia the ball in field position to kick the winning field goal in the final seconds, although it was not enough to cover the spread.

Texas (-7.5) 17, BYU 16

The Longhorns had a very slow start to the game and eventually benched QB Garrett Gilbert and went with the McCoy and Ash tandem the rest of the way. Four players completed passes for Texas in the game as BYU built a 13-0 lead in the second quarter. Texas chipped away but trailed 16-10 entering the fourth quarter. Texas went deep into BYU territory early in the final frame but came away with zero points but the defense did not allow a first down in the fourth quarter. Texas scored on its next possession to lead 17-16 and the ball twice more, and needed one touchdown to cover the spread despite the early deficit. The game ended with Texas deep in BYU territory and the Cougars out of timeouts. One more broken tackle on the final first down rush would have earned a cover for Texas.

Arkansas (-37.5) 52, New Mexico 3

The Razorbacks out-gained the Lobos by a 2:1 margin but they were short of the spread entering the fourth quarter. Even with reserves in the game Arkansas was able to pad the score with two fourth quarter touchdowns to add to the blowout margin and cash heavy favorite tickets.

Vanderbilt (-1.5) 24, Connecticut 21

The Huskies and Commodores were locked in a tight game as Connecticut took a 14-3 halftime lead to 14-13 after a blocked punt recovery in the third quarter. Connecticut got more good fortune in the fourth quarter with a 64-yard fumble return touchdown and with a successful 2-point conversion the Huskies led 21-14 halfway through the final frame as underdogs. The turnover favor was returned however as Vanderbilt got a 50-yard interception return touchdown to tie the game with less than seven minutes to go. Vanderbilt held on defense and got the ball back and less than three minutes to go the Commodores got a field goal to win and cover.

USC (-7.5) 23, Utah 14

USC and Utah were locked in a tight defensive battle all night with USC leading 17-14 entering the fourth quarter. A lot of late action on Utah forced what was once a double-digit spread to just over a touchdown and books seemed to get their wish after eight fourth quarter punts, Utah’s potential game-tying field goal attempt was blocked and returned for a touchdown in the final seconds. Several players ran on the field to join Torin Harris in his run to the end zone and it was assumed that the touchdown would not count due to the unsportsmanlike penalty, leaving the final at 17-14. Underdog tickets were paid but then two hours later the Pac-12 ruled that the score did count leaving the final at 23-14 and USC tickets had to be paid as well for a brutal double-burn at several books.

Michigan 35 (+3) Notre Dame 31

Notre Dame appeared to be in complete control in the first night game at the Big House but the turnover issues kept popping up. The Irish still led 24-7 entering the fourth quarter with massive yardage edges as well. Michigan started to get some things going on offense with a four-play drive to score early in the fourth quarter. A quick defensive stop set up another Michigan score to trim the lead to 24-21 before the teams traded turnovers. Notre Dame had the ball up three with less than four minutes to go but could not convert a first down and had to punt the ball back. In just over a minute Michigan went 58 yards to take the lead, leaving just over a minute on the clock. A big pass interference penalty and a couple of quick plays led Notre Dame to what appeared to be a miraculous score taking a 31-28 lead and at least pushing on the closing line for many backers. Michigan was given 30 seconds to work with however and incredibly Denard Robinson hit Jeremy Gallon on one sideline and he traversed 64 yards while getting out of bounds on the other sideline, leaving a few seconds left on the clock for a final play. Robinson threw up a ball that WR Roy Roundtree went and got and Michigan completed a historic comeback in an incredible fourth quarter.

NFL

Green Bay (-5) 42, New Orleans 34

It seemed as if the defending Super Bowl champion Packers were in control the entire game but New Orleans wouldn’t go away. Late in the third quarter the Saints were stopped deep in Packers territory going for it on fourth down to leave the deficit at eight entering the fourth quarter. The Packers then pushed the lead to 42-27 with less than twelve minutes to go. The Saints were forced to punt on its next possession but then put together a quick scoring drive once they got the ball back to get the margin back to eight with just over two minutes to go. As was often the case last season despite the great year, the Packers offense could not put a team away late and the defense had to go back on the field as the Saints made the stop and used timeouts to get the ball back with just over a minute to go. New Orleans moved right down the field with a few big plays and ultimately was stopped at the goal line on rushing play up the middle. The Saints would have needed a 2-point conversion to tie the game but the scored would have flipped the spread winner in an exciting opening game.

Jacksonville (+1) 16, Tennessee 14

The cover on this game was more about when you played it as Jacksonville was favored by 3 early in the week. The release of QB David Garrard brought the line down to 2 at most spots and action over the weekend eventually flipped the line as Tennessee closed as a late favorite. You could have had a win, a push, or a loss on either side depending on your timing and there were likely some fortunate folks that caught the middle, taking Tennessee early in the week at +3 and then getting the Jags at -1 or +1 on Sunday. Jacksonville was in control most of the game but the conservative offense could not pull away, leading 13-7 entering the fourth quarter as the Titans hit an 80-yard pass play late in the third to finally have a positive drive. Jacksonville added a field goal early in the fourth and after swapping punts the Titans got in the end zone again to bring the margin to 16-14 with just over three minutes to go. The Titans were able to get the ball back and got to mid-field but QB Matt Hasselbeck was intercepted taking a shot down field to seal the game.

Arizona (-7) 28, Carolina 21

The Panthers surprised a lot of people with an aggressive offensive game plan with rookie QB Cam Newton. Newton had a few mistakes but ultimately played well and impressively passed for 422 yards in a dynamic debut. Kevin Kolb’s debut for Arizona started slowly but he had an efficient game rallying Arizona back from an early deficit. Carolina led 14-7 at the half and then 21-14 entering the fourth quarter. Kolb hit a 70-yard pass play for a tying touchdown early in the fourth and then on Carolina’s next possession a punt turned into a touchdown with rookie Patrick Peterson delivering an 89-yard return for the 7-point lead that would be the final margin. The Panthers had a chance to tie late in the game with a penalty-aided drive deep into Arizona territory but the Panthers came up a yard shy. The line on this game had been steady at -7 all week and a push was ultimately the result.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-13-2011, 07:27 PM

News & Notes - Week 3

September 13, 2011

Week 3

Arizona had a young O-line making its first road trip and was also without top WR Jevon Criner. Oklahoma State dominated going 88/9pl, 80/12pl and 70/10pl on their first 3 poss for a 21-0 lead while UA had 2 FD's on their first 3 poss. OSU led 21-0 at the half and was never threatened. QB Brandon Weeden hit 22 of his first 23 passes and finished 42-53-397...

Florida International got their first ever win against a BCS foe and did it with 3 big plays. For the game Louisville had a 24-9 FD edge but UL's first drive was 10pl but not only ended on an int, Winston Fraser ret'd it 71 yds for a TD. FIU got a short pass to TY Hilton who took it 74 yds for a TD then Hilton split the DB's and got behind them for an 83 yd TD pass and FIU stunningly led 21-3. UL did blow a couple of opportunities in the game. Trailing 24-10 they were SOD on 4&1 at the FIU12, SOD on 4&13 at the FIU36 and then scored a TD with 1:49 left to pull within 24-17 but FIU rec'd the onside kick. Hilton set a school record with 201 yds receiving...

It was an interesting Friday nighter for Missouri and Arizona State. Each team settled for a some FG's after long drives and MO led 16-10 at the half thanks to a blk'd xp. ASU scored TD's on 89/10pl and 60/7pl drives and led 30-16 with 14:23 left in the game. The Devils then forced a punt on 4&18 but fmbl'd the punt then pass interference on 3&15 gave MO a FD and MO got a 25 yd TD pass on the next play. On MO's next drive they converted on 3&14 and later on 4&gl from the 3 to tie it with 2:50 left. MO did miss a 48 yd FG with :12 left and ASU won it on a TD in OT...

Oregon State came in as a banged up team vs Wisconsin and was only outgained 397-284 but didn't do themselves any favors. They had a -4 yd punt in the 1Q setting up the Badgers first TD, a 3&13, 17 yd pass 3pl later. An OSU PF pen on the punt gave UW the ball at their own 49 and Wilson hit a 10 yd TD pass on 3&5.The Badgers added a TD with :27 left in the half to lead 21-0. Once again OSU benched QB Katz early and Mannion took almost all of the snaps. OSU fmbl'd at the UW13 and was SOD at the UW17 on 2 of their last 3 drives...

It's not very often that a team has 1 FD for an entire game. In fact the last time Michigan State held an opponent to just 1 FD was back in 1944 vs Maryland. MSU scored a TD or a FG or missed a FG on their first 8 drives then got a 39 yd FR TD to lead FAU 44-0 with 8:22 left and finally punted for the first time with 3:36 left in the game. They had a 434-48 yd edge...

Army did have a 446-292 yd edge vs San Diego State but were -3 in TO's. Army fmbl'd at the SDSt42, fmbl'd at their own 26 and trailed 14-0 but it was 14-14 at the half with Army having a 245-130 yd edge. Army was SOD at the SDSt48 and on their final drive, down by 3, were on the fringe of FG range on 3&19 from the 34 when they took a 6 yd sack and had to go for it on 4&25 and fired incomplete...

Toledo scored their first points ever vs Ohio State having lost their previous 2 vs the Buckeyes by a combined score of 87-0 in '98 and '09 as they nearly upset OSU. In fact, OSU needed a 69 yd PR with :46 left in the half to lead 21-15. In the 2H TOL had a bad snap on a 51 yd FG and on their final drive they took over with 3:08 left and got to the Buckeye15 but on 4&5 fired incomplete and came up 5 pts short. TOL had a 338-301 yd edge...

Illinois had their biggest win since 1944 as they scored on 7 consec drives and rolled to a 56-3 win. They had 27-6 FD and 519-96 yd edges. South Dakota State did not get their first FD until the 2Q and had just 54 yds offense at the half. Illinois FB Becker left the game in the 1H and may be out for the season. It was 42-3 when bkp QB O'Toole came in with 8:58 left in the 3Q guiding the team to a 30/4pl TD drive...

Tough loss for Central Michigan vs Kentucky and the key play came on a 4th down gamble. In the 1H CM went on an 81/16pl drive and settled for a 19 yd FG. Later they went 67/12pl settling for a 31 yd FG. They had a 227-93 yd edge but only led 13-6 at the half. On their 3rd 3Q poss, they went for it on 4&inches at their own 34 and were SOD. On the next play, UK got a 34 yd TD pass UK was then pinned at its own 13 when they got an 87 yd TD run to take their first lead, 20-13 and finally drove 85/13pl for a TD with 5:35 left to clinch it. CM finished with a 383-344 yd edge but lost by double digits...

Alabama's D gave up 54/16pl on the opening drive of the game for a 43 yd FG and pretty much controlled the 1H with a 171-92 yd edge settling for a 22 yd FG after one 10pl drive and led 17-3. Bama got a TD by Richardson with 6:14 left as he rushed for 111 yds and 2 TD's. Penn State then went 71/14pl incl 3&10 and 3&20 conversions and got a garbage TD with 1:53 left for a big part of their 251 yds...

North Carolina had a 5-0 TO deficit vs Rutgers and were actually outFD'd 19-17 but that is not indicative of the game. NC had a 286-91 yd edge in the 1H but due to the TO's, only led 17-12. They led 24-15 with 1:12 left in the 3Q when RU went on a 62/13pl drive including a 4&12 conversion getting a TD with 10:40 left. RU's last drive went 33/9pl but on 4&7 they were SOD at their own 42 and NC ended the game at the RU7...

Nobody gave Auburn a chance vs Mississippi State after their poor performance vs Utah St but they managed to extend the NCAA's longest win streak to 17 and were highly motivated by being nearly a TD dog at home. AU led 14-0 but after MSU tied it at 14, AU gave up a 27 yd IR TD. AU still rallied and led 34-24 at the half and then got a TD with 14:03 left in the game for a commanding 41-27 lead and even forced a MSU punt with 9:43 left. MSU went 83/12pl getting a TD with 4:51 left then forced a punt with 2:52 left. MSU drove 67/11pl. On 2nd & gl from the 2 with no time-outs, they swept QB Relf and he was tkl'd at the half yd line...

Iowa had a 10-0 lead early vs Iowa State but it was 10-10 at the half. ISU led 17-16 but UI drove 80/11pl and got a TD with 5:50 left and the 2 pt conv put them up 24-17. ISU's last drive in regulation featured a 3&16, 20 yd pass, a 3&20, 40 yd pass, a 4&1 conv and then on 3&gl got a 4 yd TD run. UI scored in the first of 3OT's with a TD and ISU faced a 4&gl at the 4 and got a TD to keep the game going. In the 3rd OT UI got a FG and ISU a TD for the win. ISU had not scored a meaningful TD vs UI since 2006...

East Carolina QB Davis had 260 yds and 4 TD's vs South Carolina but finished with just 127 yards passing, an int and was sk'd 5 times. Virginia Tech did have 20-11 FD and 332-112 yd edges but blew a couple of opportunities and actually needed a TD with 7:30 left to take their first lead of the game in their 17-10 win. VT got a 38 yd drive for a TD after a 30 yd punt, on 1st & gl from the 6 were int'd in the EZ and after having a FD at the EC14 settled for a 39 yd FG at the end of the half. VT's winning drive was 89/13pl for the TD with 7:30 left and EC's last 2 poss ended on a punt with 5:33 left from their own 26 and on 4&18 they fired incomplete from their own 43 and VT took a knee...

Idaho QB Reader threw for 299 yards and 4 TD's and UI's D had 2 IR TD's. UI finished with 424-197 yd and 23-11 FD edges. They missed a FG and settled for a FG and only led 3-0 when North Dakota got a 79 yd PR TD to stunningly lead 7-3 (9:37 2Q). ND then got a 54/1pl TD pass 14-3 (7:33 2Q). UI went 80/15pl for a TD with 1:01 left in the half then went 71/6, 58/9, 91/11, their first 3 3Q poss to lead 31-14. They blew it open late when a 19 yd IR to the ND18 set up a 1pl 1 yd TD run by Bass then 2pl later with bkp QB Goska in for ND, the Vandals got a 37 yd IR TD with 4:41 left for the 44-14 final...

Tulsa/Tulane was a 3-3 game with 4:08 left in the half. TLN was at the TLS35 but on 3&15 they were int'd and TLS went 73/6pl for a TD and a 10-3 lead. TLN's first two 3Q drives ended in a missed 44 yd FG and a fmbl at the TLS23 and TLS had TD drives of 82, 77 and 67 yds to go ahead 31-3. TLN fmbl'd at the TLS39, was SOD at the TLS42 and punted on their final 3 drives...

The key play o the Arkansas St/Memphis game happened early 2Q when Memphis, down 10-0, was SOD on 4&1 at the ASU29. ASU got a 71 yd TD pass on the next play to make it 16-0 and would go 82/13pl and 90/11pl for TD's on their next 2 poss to blow it open at the half. ASU scored 2 TDs and a FG on their first three 3Q poss, the 2nd 2 led by bkp QB Smith and they had a 611-169 yd edge...

Ohio U had a dominant 22-9 FD and 392-124 yd edges vs Gardner-Webb. OU got scoring drives of 40 and 28 yards and also got an IR TD but also blew some scoring drives. They had a 1st & gl at the 5 but fmbl'd, missed a 53 yd FG, fmbl'd at the GW47, were int'd at the GW35, SOD at the GW15 and settled for a 24 yd FG with 4:51 left...

Dan Persa sat out a 2nd straight game and Kolter hit 10-14-104 yd and rushed for 109 for Northwestern. Kolter inj'd his shoulder and only returned for a few plays later with 3rd string QB Trevor Siemian guiding 2 drives incl a 1 yd TD pass with 11:01 left and then Watkins was in for the final NW 2 drives. NW on 4&8 at the Eastern Illinois 22 just ran the ball in the line for 3 yds with 1:27 left and EI got a 76 yd run and a 3 yd garbage TD with :07 left to make the stats closer than they really were at NW 437-341...

Nothing misleading about the Washington State/UNLV final. WSU scored on their first 5 drives of the game as Marshall Lobbestael hit 24-32-361 and they then scored on their first 3 drives of the 2H with the 3rd drive being led by bkp Halliday. WSU made it 59-0 with 5:29 left and LV's only score came on a 95 yd KR TD. WSU's final drive was SOD at the LV20 and they also had a 35 yd FG blk'd...

Southern Miss appeared in control vs Marshall as they were up 17-3 and had the ball with 2:00 left 1H. They only got off a 27 yd punt and MU went 41/7pl for a TD, 17-10. In the game SM turned it over SIX times and had a punt blk'd. SM fmbl'd at their own 35 early 3Q setting up a MU TD. MU took the lead with a TD with 1:19 left 3Q. SM was pinned at its 1 and RB Hardy was tkl'd for a safety and MU led 26-17. SM fmbl'd at the MU27, settled for a 28 yd FG then rec'd the onside kick but as you would expect, with 1:00 left on 3&10 ended the game on their 6th TO, an int at the 43...

New Mexico St/Minnesota looked to be a high scoring game as at the half, NMSt had a 21-14 lead and a 271-199 yd edge. They even blew a couple of scoring opportunities in the 1H as UM had a 1st & gl at the 4 but was int'd in the EZ and NMSt missed a 45 yd FG. UM missed a 38 yd FG in the 3Q but down 28-21, the Gophers had a 1st & gl at the 7 and got the game tying TD with 7:54 left to make it 28-28 but replays respotted the ball at the footline and on 4&gl at the footline UM was stopped. NMSt got 4 FD's' and punted and UM got to the NMSt25. Coach Kill had a seizure on the sideline and the game was halted for a half hr and when they ret'd UM's 4th&10 pass fell incomplete and NMSt held on for the upset...

Texas/BYU was played in 98 degrees heat and BYU wilted in the 2H with UT having a 201?67 yd edge. UT QB Gilbert was benched and QB's Ash and McCoy alternated on every poss the rest of the game. Gilbert had a couple of costly int's and BYU jumped to a 13-0 lead. UT settled for a 23 yd FG late 1Q. In the 2H UT was SOD on 4&1 at the BYU13 and then up 17-16, had the ball at the BYU30. RB Brown broke off a run and had a shot but was tkl'd at the 14 of BYU and the Longhorns took a knee 2x...

Not many teams survive a defensive TO for a TD. It's extremely rare when a team wins a game having 2 def TD's go against them. Georgia pretty much controlled the South Carolina game from start to finish. In fact 3 of their first 4 drives got to the RZ but they settled for 3 FG's and actually missed a chipshot 33 yd FG and led 6-3. SC ran a fake punt on 4&7 at their own 32 and DT Ingram got a FD and the 276 lb'r raced 68 yds for a TD. In the 3Q UGA appeared in control again leading 20-14 and had the ball at the SC39. RB Crowell, who hurt his ribs in the 1H was not 100% and fmbl'd when SC ret'd it 57 yds to the 5 basically a TO for a TD as SC got a 5 yd "drive" for a TD. SC then got a 25 yd IR TD to lead 28-20. UGA tied it and then retook the lead 35-31 but again was sk'd & fmbl'd and SC ret'd it for a TD. At the end, SC rec'd an onside kick and got a FD and took a knee. Basically 4 def and ST TD's vs UGA and they only lost by 3...

Connecticut/Vanderbilt was a pure defensive struggle. The two teams combined for 12 sks for -72 yds, there was 2 def TD's and a blk'd punt for a TD. CT fmbl'd at their 42 setting up a 42/1pl TD pass for VU and VU went 80/6pl for a TD to lead 14-3 after 1Q with the 2Q producing 5 FD's combined and 7 punts and 2 TO's. After an int CT drove 6 yd for a 28 yd FG then blk'd a punt for a TD, 14-13 and got a 64 yd FR TD in the 4Q to lead 21-14. VU got a 50 yd IR TD with 6:45 left to tie then after a 48 yd run by Stacy got a 31 yd FG with 2:56 left for the lead. UConn on 4&16 fired incomplete from their own 25 with 2:09 left.

GAME UNDER THEIR BELT ADVANTAGE

Florida was impressive for a 2nd straight week. They settled for FG's on their first 2 drives. UAB had 2 of their first 3 drives getting 2 FD's and had another FD wiped out by a hold on the first drive and punted. On their 3rd drive UAB got a 38 yd TD pass after 2 FD's but it was wiped out by illegal shift and on 4&2 they were SOD. UAB had a snap go over the P's head for a safety with 2:32 left and after the extremely poor free kick UF drove 52/5pl for a TD with 1:09 left to score 9 pts in the final 2:32 and open it up 25-0. UF had a 308-95 yd edge at the half. In the 2H UAB had a FD at the UF30 and fmbl'd then ran a fake punt from its own 36 and was SOD setting up a UF 36/3pl TD drive. The Gators finished with 512-212 yd and 28-11 FD edges and led 39-0 after 3Q before putting the offense away in the 4Q. UF had the advantage of a game under their belts as both teams who didn't play the opening weekend were blown out...

Darron Thomas matched a school record with 6 TD passes as Oregon rebounded from their LSU loss with a 69-20 win. The loss snapped Nevada's 7 gm win streak as they came out of last season 13-1 and ranked #11. Tyler Lantrip took over at QB for Kaepernick (NFL) and hit 21-35-219 yds and rushed 10x for 51 yds. UO led 55-13 after 3Q and the Ducks scored 2 TD's in the last 2:24, one after UN was SOD at their own 27 and the 2nd on a 68 yd IR TD with :20 left.

REPLACEMENTS

Mike Glennon, the man who replaced Russell Wilson at North Carolina State hit 24-41-315 yds but a lot of it came in the 2H with NCSt down 34-13. At the half Wake Forest had a 278-127 yd edge. With Tanner Price at QB, WF led SU by 15 when he was inj'd in Wk1. He ret'd to the lineup and hit 22-35-297 yds completing his first 8 passes. NCSt did pull within 34-27 on a 4&10, 63 yd TD pass with 5:34 left. NCSt's final drive got to the WF38 and on 4&10 they dropped what would have been a sure a FD pass.

POINTSPREAD PLAYS OF THE GAME

Keith Price is replacing Jake Locker at Washington and he hit his first 8 passes hitting 18-25-315 yds. UW survived the dreaded 14 pt swing in the 2Q threatening to take a 28-7 lead on 3&8 from the 10 Price was int'd and ret'd 99 yds for a TD. In the 1H UW had a 370-192 yd edge and led 28-14. Hawaii did fmbl at the UW5 and were SOD at the UW9 in the 1H. The pointspread play of the game came after UH took over at the UW27 following a -5 yd punt and they trailed 38-26. They got a TD with 1:39 left for the apparent backdoor cover. The xp would have put them under the spread but UW blk'd the xp and ret'd it for 2 and instead of only trailing 38-33 it was an 8 pt game at 40-32. UW rec'd the onside kick...

USC had a 416-319 yd edge vs Utah but a 3-1 TO deficit. The Trojans were SOD at the Utah32, int'd at the Utah15, had a FD at the Utah12 and fmbl'd and Utah which had been outgained 239-68 drove 84/12pl for a TD with :34 left in the half to get back in it at 10-7. USC led 17-7 when a fmbl set up Utah for a 51/1pl reverse to the 1 and a TD on the next play to make it 17-14. USC had a 47 yd FG wiped out by a false start pen and punted and the next 8 poss were punts. Utah took over at their own 33 and on the controversial final drive they had an int dropped by a LB and on 4&10 were spotted short but they reversed the spot via replay it and gave them the FD at the 38. A pass interfere pen gave Utah a FD to the 23 with :11 left and the Utes lined up for the game tying 41 yd FG. It was blk and ret'd for a TD. The officials originally wiped it off the board as the USC players came on the field while the ret was in progress and the final was announced 17-14. The P12 stepped in and said the P12 rule is that unsportsmanlike conduct penalties by substitutes are enforced as dead ball fouls. Therefore the TD was allowed making it 23-14 and giving USC the frontdoor cover.

FRONTDOOR AND BACKDOOR COVERS

AF came in expecting an upset and while they actually had a 416-410 yd edge, AF gained 128 of their yards in the 4Q when trailing 35-9. TCU had the game locked up 35-9 and AF surprisingly went for a 22 yd FG on 4&4 with 8:18 left. Still their next 3 poss were punts and AF took over at their 22 with the score 35-12 and still Under the Total. AF would get 2 FD's and then a 33 yd pass to the 4 with :28 left and with :04 left in the game, a 1 yd TD run put the game Over the total, 35-19. Once again, AF had 128 of their yds in the 4Q...

Colorado St has won the last 16 meetings in this series and are 17-0-1 vs N Colorado. This time they had 28-9 FD and 501-216 yd edges but NC got a garbage TD with 6:43 left to only lose by 19. CSU got a safety with 10:23 left for a 33-7 lead and had the game in hand. After the free kick they got 2 FD's to the NC28 and were running out the clock when they fired incomplete on 4th down. On the next play, NC got a 66 yd TD run to get the backdoor with 6:27 left. CSU went 47/10pl and they ran out the clock.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-13-2011, 07:32 PM

Games to Watch - Week 3

September 13, 2011

Thursday - LSU at Mississippi State (ESPN, 8:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

As of Tuesday, most books had LSU favored by three or 3 ½ with a total of 48 1/2. The Tigers have to go on the road on a short week of preparation for Thursday's game in Starkville, but they are coming off an easy 49-7 home win over Northwestern St. On the other hand, Mississippi St. is off a 60-minute battle at Auburn that went down to the final play. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, Dan Mullen didn't call for a pass - that would've resulted in a subsequent snap - and the final play was stuffed inches short of the end zone. The 41-34 loss at AU leaves MSU in desperation mode, but a win over LSU will have the Bulldogs right back in the SEC West mix. However, LSU has won 11 in a row against MSU and has an 11-3 spread record in the last 14 head-to-head meetings. The 'over' had cashed in six straight MSU-LSU games before last year's encounter saw the 'under' prevail. LSU needed a goal-line stand at crunch time to beat MSU by a 30-26 count two years ago. Russell Shepard, LSU's starting WR, will not play (suspension) but can return next week at WVU.

Saturday - Auburn at Clemson (ABC, 12:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

As of Tuesday, most spots were listing Clemson as a 3 ½-point favorite with a total of 59. Dabo Swinney's squad trailed Troy at halftime in Week 1, only to outscore the Trojans 30-3 in the second half en route to a 43-19 victory. Clemson struggled for four full quarters last week, eventually beating Wofford by a 35-27 score. Auburn wasn't impressive in its opener, needing 10 points in the last 2:07 to rally past Utah St. for a 42-38 triumph. Gene Chizik's team played much better in Week 2, knocking off Mississippi St. 41-34 as a six-point home underdog. Barrett Trotter has played well at QB, throwing five TD passes compared to only one interception so far. When these teams met last year, Clemson raced out to a 17-3 halftime lead but Cam Newton rallied Auburn to a 27-24 win in overtime. During Chizik's tenure to date, AU has compiled a 2-2 spread record in four road underdog situations. As for Clemson, it is 7-6 ATS as a home 'chalk' under Swinney.

Saturday - Tennessee at Florida (CBS, 3:30 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

The early action Sunday night came in on Tennessee, prompting the line to move from nine to 8 ½. But the Monday money was all Gators, who were 9 ½-point home ‘chalk’ late Tuesday afternoon. The total opened at 50 ½. Florida has covered the number in back-to-back home wins over FAU (41-3) and UAB (39-0). Meanwhile, UT quarterback Tyler Bray has played lights out in wins over Montana (42-16) and Cincy (45-23). Bray threw for a career-high 405 yards and had five TDs (4 passing, 1 rushing) against the Bearcats. UF is 18-9 ATS as a home favorite dating back to 2007. The Gators have won six in a row over the Vols, beating them by double-digit margins in each of the last four meetings. UT has seen the ‘over’ cash at a lucrative 11-3 clip on Derek Dooley’s watch.

Other Games to Watch
Matchup Skinny

Michigan State at Notre Dame - As of Tuesday, most books had Notre Dame installed as a 4 ½-point favorite with a total of 51. The Irish have lost a pair of nail-biters to start the year, falling 23-20 at home to USF before losing 35-31 at Michigan. Brian Kelly's team gave up a 16-yard TD pass with two ticks remaining at The Big House. Turnovers were the Irish's undoing, as they committed five of them. Michigan St. has won a pair of home games against soft competition, beating Youngstown St. 28-6 before dealing out cream-cheese treatment in a 44-0 win over FAU. Kirk Cousins is one of the Big Ten's top QBs, throwing for three TDs without an interception in the Spartans' first two games. B.J. Cunningham (14 catches for 203 yards) is his favorite target.

Stanford at Arizona - As of Tuesday, most spots had Stanford tabbed as a 10-point favorite with a total of 54. Andrew Luck has led the Cardinal to a pair of easy wins and covers vs. San Jose St. and at Duke. He has six TD passes and only one interception to date. Arizona is coming off a 37-14 loss at Oklahoma St. last Thursday. The Wildcats will once again be without their star WR Julian Criner, who recently underwent an appendectomy. Gamblers have feasted on Arizona as a home underdog during Mike Stoops' eight-year tenure, cashing tickets at a 12-4-1 clip in 17 such spots. The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS when catching double digits at home under Stoops.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-13-2011, 07:44 PM

NFL Tech Trends - Week 2

September 13, 2011

Sunday, Sept. 18 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Chicago at New Orleans

Saints bounced back well from defeats LY, covering 3 of 4 in reg. season. But NO only 16-20-1 vs. line since Super Bowl year of '09, and 10-19-1 last 30 on board, and 5-8 last 13 as home chalk. Lovie was 4-1 as road dog LY after 0-5 mark in role previous year. Bears 'under' 9-5-2 away since '09. Bears, based on team trends.

Kansas City at Detroit

Lions now 14-3 vs. line since 2010, and have covered last ten on board since late LY if counting the four preseaosn games this summer. Detroit also 7-1 vs. points at Ford Field LY, and 'over' 7-2-1 last 10 at home as well. Lions and slight to 'over,' based on team and 'totals' trends.

Jacksonville at New York Jets

Jags were 'over' 6-2 away LY and 'over' 11-6 overall since 2010. Jets 'over' 19-6 last 25 since late '09, but only 6-9 as home chalk for Rex Ryan. 'Over,' based on "totals" trends.

Oakland at Buffalo

Raiders alternated spread losses and wins on road throughout 2010; by that trend they're due for an "L" at Orchard Park. Slight to Bills, based on Raiders' spread peculiarities.

Arizona at Washington

Cards dropped 6 of last 7 vs. spread on road LY and are now 2-9 against line last 11 as visitor. Whisenhunt also 'over' 13-5-1 last 19. Interestingly, Skins were never a home favorite in 2010, afer 4-10 mark in role '07-09. Skins and slight to "over," based on recent Cards marks.

Tennessee at Baltimore

Ravens 4-1 as road chalk LY. Titans 'over' 11-7-1 last 19 at home. Slight to Ravens and 'over,' based on team and 'totals' trends.

Seattle at Pittsburgh

Pete Carroll only 2-8 vs. line on road since LY, and Seattle now 3-15 vs. spread away since '09 and 3-16 last 18 since late '08. Carroll also 'over' 8-2 away since LY and Seattle 'over' 15-5 last 19 away. Steel 'over' 5-5 at home LY and 'over' 55-30 last 85 at Heinz Field. Steel also 6-2 as home chalk LY after 2-5 mark in '09, and Mike Tomlin covered all four games after a SU loss last season. 'Over' and Steelers, based on 'totals' and team trends.

Green Bay at Carolina

Pack 15-7 vs. line last 22 away. Pack also 8-5 last 13 as road chalk. Carolina 4-12 vs. mark at home LY and "under" 14-4 last 18 at Charlotte. Pack and 'under,' based on team and 'totals' trends.

Tampa Bay at Minnesota

Bucs completing the rounds vs. old NFC Central foes. Vikes 6-10-1 vs. line since 2010, while Bucs were 7-1 vs. spread away LY, now 9-1 last 10 vs. line away. Bucs, based on team trends.

Cleveland at Indianapolis

Hard to gauge Colts in respect to past marks now without Manning. With Manning, Colts were 'under' 6-2 last 8 as host LY (Indy was a great 'over' team on road, 7-1 LY). Browns have now dropped 8 of last 9 vs. spread since 2010. Browns 'under' 10-7 last 17 away. Slight to 'under' and Colts, based on 'totals' and team trends.

Sunday, Sept. 18 - All games to start at 4:15 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Dallas at San Fran

Only 9-15 vs. number its last 23 away and 3-9 last 12 as road chalk. Dallas also 'over' 14-3 since 2010, 49ers 'over' 6-2 at Stick since LY. SF 12-5-2 vs. line last 19 as host. "Over" and 49ers, based on "totals" and team trends.

Houston at Miami

Kubiak 'over' 13-6 last 18 since late '09. Sparano 'over' 13-4 st home since '09. Miami also only 5-17 vs. spread last 22 at home after Monday loss to Patriots. Texans and 'over,' based on team and 'totals' trends.

San Diego at New England

Norv 0-3-1 vs. line in first road game of season as SD coach, and only 4-8-1 vs. line in first 3 games of season since 2007. Norv "over" 13-6-1 last 20 away, Belichick 'over' 16-3 last 19 since late '09, although these two went 'under' LY at Qualcomm. 'Over' and Patriots, based on 'totals' and Norv trends.

Cincy at Denver

Marvin Lewis 4-9 vs. line last 12 away, although Broncs just 4-10 vs. points last 14 at home after Monday loss to Oakland. Denver also 'over' 17-5 since late '09. 'Over,' based on Broncos 'totals' trends.

Sunday, Sept. 18 - NBC, 8:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
Philly at Atlanta

Bird battle in the Georgia Dome. Even after loss in Chicago opener, Falcs have covered 7 of last 9 in reg. season LY but will be looking to revenge 31-17 loss at Philly last Oct. 17. Philly 'over' 8-2 last 10 away, Falcs 'over' 5-3-1 at home LY. 'Over,' based on 'totals' trends.

Monday, Sept. 19 - ESPN, 8:30 ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
St.Louis at New York

Spagnuolo vs. former employer. G-Men just 4-10 last 14 as home chalk, also 'over' 20-13 at home since '07. Rams and slight to 'over,' based on team and 'totals' trends

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