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Playoff Results - NBA Finals

June 6, 2011

NBA Finals Results

Favorites are 1-2 straight up
Favorites are 1-2 against the spread
The 'under is 3-0
Home teams are 1-2

Visitor Home Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Tuesday, May 31
Dallas Miami (-4.5) 92-84 FAVORITE UNDER 188.5

Thursday, June 2
Dallas (+4.5) Miami 95-93 UNDERDOG UNDER 189

Sunday, June 5
Miami (+2) Dallas 88-86 UNDERDOG UNDER 189

Tuesday, June 7
Miami Dallas

Thursday, June 9
Miami Dallas

Sunday, June 12
Dallas Miami

Tuesday, June 14
Dallas Miami




Winners in BOLD

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

06/05/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
06/02/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

Totals 3-*1-*0 75.00% +950

Tuesday, June 7
Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 9:00 PM ET Miami +3 500

Dallas - Over 186.5 500

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NBA Odds: Miami Heat and Mavericks knotted 2-2

If the series trend holds true, then the Dallas Mavericks are in big trouble against the Miami Heat in Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night.

The Don Best odds screen has Dallas as slim 1 ½-point home favorites with a total of 185-points. ABC will get things going at 6:00 p.m. (PT).

Miami is -240 for the series odds with Dallas +200. The Game 5 winner in a tied series has gone on to win the title 19 of the last 26 times (73.1 percent). The Lakers bucked that trend last year by winning the last two games at home after dropping Game 5 in Boston.

The Mavericks tied up the series on Tuesday night thanks to an 86-83 win as 3-point favorites. They trailed 74-65 with 10:12 left before their second, fourth-quarter comeback this series.

The ‘push’ puts Dallas at 1-2-1 against the spread in the Finals. The teams have alternated between winning and losing each game, with Miami to win Thursday if the trend continues.

The 169 combined points scored last game easily went below the series-low 186 ½-point total. The ‘under’ is 3-0-1 this series with the average total only 177 points.

Dirk Nowitzki scored 21 points on 6-of-19 shooting from the field last game while battling a fever. However, he was ‘money’ once again in the fourth quarter with 10 of the team’s 21 points. He now has 44 points in the fourth quarter this series.

Nowitzki’s supporting cast was under the microscope after scoring 52 points on 34.7 percent shooting (17-of 49) in Game 3. Their collective numbers were better in Game 4 with 65 points on 42.6 percent shooting (23-of-54).

Jason Terry was a big key with 17 points, including eight in the fourth quarter. He even called out the Miami defense before the game, saying it wasn’t so great. Shawn Marion added 16 points and JJ Barea had eight in a surprise starting assignment over DeShawn Stevenson. Stevenson didn’t sulk to his credit with 11 points, all in the second quarter.

Coach Rick Carlisle shortened his rotation to essentially seven guys. The struggling Peja Stojakovic played just two seconds, while backup center Brendan Haywood played three minutes, mainly due to his hip injury. Starting center Tyson Chandler had his best game of the series with 13 points and 16 rebounds.

Miami won the rebounding battle overall (44-41), including a 15-12 margin on the offensive glass. However, nine of those offensive boards came in the first quarter when the Mavericks seemingly forget how to box out. They did a much better job from there.

The Heat are disappointed with the loss, but can still meet their goal of winning two of three in Big D. That would give them two home games to win the title – an almost definite probability of success.

Miami out-shot Dallas last game (42.7-39.7 percent) but committed six turnovers in the fourth quarter when it was outscored 21-14. LeBron James had zero points in the final stanza and has nine total in the fourth quarter this series, an embarrassing figure for arguably the league’s best player.

James scored just eight points overall last game, 3-of-11 shooting. He seems too willing to defer to Dwyane Wade (32 points last game, 29.8 PPG for the series). Chris Bosh also had 24 points last game in his best Finals performance, building on his game-winning jumper from Game 3.

Miami had its 3-game road winning streak snapped, but is still 3-0-1 ATS in its last four away (the ‘under’ 4-0). The team is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 after starting the playoffs 2-3 ATS.

Dallas is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four home games. The team is 1-3-1 ATS in its last four overall after starting the playoffs 12-1-1 ATS.

Haywood is listed as probable for Thursday on the Don Best injury report, but he’s likely to be ineffective even if he plays. Chandler must continue to play with passion, especially while rebounding.

The series moves back to South Beach on Sunday night in what will be a closeout game either way. ABC will have the coverage at an earlier 5:00 p.m. (PT).

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Game 5 - Heat at Mavs

June 8, 2011

There are several different ways this season's NBA Finals can be interpreted. The Heat should be up 3-1. The Mavericks should own a 3-1 series lead. However, the two teams are squared at two games apiece after another Dallas rally in the final quarter as the Mavs held off the Heat, 86-83 to 'push' as three-point favorites. Many storylines came out of Tuesday's back-and-forth contest, but the main one was the late-game disappearance from LeBron James.

The Heat scored just 14 points in the final quarter of Game 4, while James took only one shot from the floor. James finished the game with a playoff career-low eight points, even though he pulled down nine rebounds and dished out seven assists. Dwyane Wade missed the game-tying free throw with 30 seconds remaining, even though the 2006 Finals MVP led Miami with a game-high 32 points. Miami's biggest problem in closing out the last three contests is its lack of ability in getting to the foul line. The Heat has attempted four free throws combined in the last seven minutes of each of the previous three games, which is turning into a major disadvantage.

The free-throw disparity is not exactly reflective of the officiating in the series; instead, the Mavs are finding ways to get into the penalty and taking more foul shots than Miami. The heat was literally on Dirk Nowitzki in Game 4 as the Mavs' superstar played with a fever of over 100 degrees. However, Nowitzki overcame a sluggish night from the floor (6-for-19) to convert a key layup in the final seconds to secure Dallas' second win in the series. The major impact didn't necessarily come from the sick Nowitzki, as four other Mavericks scored in double-figures, led by Jason Terry's 17 points.

The 'under' improved to 3-0-1 in this series thanks to the 169 points scored in Game 4 (total of 186 ½). The possibility of overtime has threatened the 'under' in the last three games with each contest decided on the final possession. This series has not seen a team score more than 95 points in a game, as the last NBA Finals not to have any team eclipse the 100-point mark throughout the entire series came in San Antonio's sweep of New York in 1999.

The NBA Finals hasn't been very competitive from an overall standpoint over the years, as only five series have reached a Game 5 with the series tied at two since 1994. The home teams are 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS, as the Celtics captured Game 5 over the Lakers at TD Garden last summer in a 92-86 victory, even though Los Angeles ended up winning the title.

HOME TEAMS TIED AT 2-2 IN NBA FINALS SINCE '94
YEAR RESULT LINE ATS RESULT
1994 NY 91, HOU 84 -5 W
1997 CHI 90, UTA 88 -1 L
2005 SA 96, DET 95 OT +4 W
2006 MIA 101, DAL 100 OT -2.5 L
2010 BOS 92, LAL 86 -2 W
*HOME TEAMS IN BOLD



Miami has done a solid job bouncing back from a defeat in this postseason with a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS mark. The only ATS loss came in Game 5 of the first round against Philadelphia when the Heat failed to cash as 11-point favorites in a 97-91 win. Erik Spoelstra's squad owns a 5-1 ATS ledger in the playoffs off a non-cover, while allowing 100 points or more just once in 19 postseason games.

VegasInsider.com's Chris David feels the 'under' will likely cash again on Thursday, "After watching the fourth straight 'under' cash in Game 4, we finally saw the oddsmakers make a serious adjustment on the total. Game 5 opened at 185 ½ and the number has already dipped to 185 and even at 184 ½ at a few major offshore outfits. Will it go lower? I certainly believe it should and that opinion is strictly based off the pace."

The norm in the NBA for field goal attempts is 80 per contest, but David points out that these two clubs play below that number on a consistent basis, "Miami averaged 76.2 shots per game during the regular season, while Dallas posted 78.1 attempts. The Heat is averaging 76.5 attempts during the first four games which is righty around their average, but the Mavericks have attempted an average of 71.3 shots in this series."

Since the 2008 Finals, the 'under' is 14-5-2, meaning these games are played close to the vest. David believes there's no reason to think that trend changes, "Dallas has no desire to play fast and you might see them slow it down even more. A lot of gamblers play the due factor, in this case the 'over' but that's never a smart investment. If you look at a lot of best-of-seven series, you'll see that trends with totals often go on serious streaks."

The Mavericks opened up as two-point favorites, but that number has dropped to 1 and even down to a pick-em at several spots. The total is hovering between 184 ½ and 185, as Game 5 tips off at 9:00 PM EST and can be seen nationally on ABC.

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Playoff Results - NBA Finals

June 8, 2011

NBA Finals Results

Favorites are 2-2 straight up
Favorites are 1-2-1 against the spread
The 'under is 4-0
Home teams are 2-2

Visitor Home Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Tuesday, May 31
Dallas Miami (-4.5) 92-84 FAVORITE UNDER 188.5

Thursday, June 2
Dallas (+4.5) Miami 95-93 UNDERDOG UNDER 189

Sunday, June 5
Miami (+2) Dallas 88-86 UNDERDOG UNDER 189

Tuesday, June 7
Miami Dallas (-3) 86-83 PUSH UNDER 187.5

Thursday, June 9
Miami Dallas

Sunday, June 12
Dallas Miami

Tuesday, June 14
Dallas Miami

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Heat-Mavericks play pivotal Game 5 Thursday


MIAMI HEAT

at DALLAS MAVERICKS


NBA Finals
Game 5 – Series tied 2-2
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -2, Total: 185.5

You know that we have a tight, testy, historic series in the making when you see the intensity of the quotations going to a whole new level:

Dirk Nowitzki calling out a teammate, saying before game four that Jason Terry “hasn't really been a crunch-time, clutch player for us the way we need him to.”

Jason Terry saying of LeBron James’ defense on him entering Game 4: "Let's see if [James] can defend me like that for seven games."

Wednesday, Mavericks president Donnie Nelson appeared to be playing the Overrated card when he said of James and Dwyane Wade "Really, are there two guys that get more compared to Superman than Dwyane Wade and LeBron James?"

But potentially the most telling quote of the finals came after the Mavericks 86-83 win in Game 4 Tuesday, which evened the series at 2-2, when James played 46 minutes and scored a playoff-career-low eight points on 3-for-11 shooting, Mavericks swingman DeShawn Stevenson said that James appeared to “check out” of Game 4, adding "Our defense was good, but at the same time he wasn't in attack mode … He's trying to find other guys and Dwyane Wade has it going, so I think he's deferring. At the same time, it's good for us. It's a positive for us."

Hmmm, Deferring. Checking out. Those buzz words are getting perilously close to insinuating that Mr. Decision is doing nothing to confuse himself with Mr. Clutch during these NBA Finals. In a series that has seen the total scoring differential of the last three games become a microscopic three points, one star player disappearing in the fourth quarter could spell the difference between championship parade and see you next year (assuming we have a season next year). Considering that the Heat mantra this year was win or bust, wait till next year for the Miami fans is equivalent to the word failure on the Apollo 13 mission: Not an option.

For the first time in 90 career playoff games, James was held to single digits in scoring. His offensive game plan seemed to resemble that of a hockey team that hasn’t scored on the power play for two weeks. He did a lot of passing, looking, surveying, and studying on Tuesday, when he should have been cutting to the chase and shooting. James did not score a point in the final quarter of Game 4, and only took one shot in the period, a period in which he played all 12 minutes. James knows that he failed to make an impact Tuesday night, but is grateful that in basketball, series play allows you an opportunity to come back stronger in the next game. “If it was the Super Bowl, I would be kicking myself in the foot. We have one game. That's it," James said. "The great thing about this, it's a series. No matter if you can have a bad game, you can always make an imprint on the next game. Game 5 is a huge game."

Even with a second chance, there is no guarantee that James will seize the moment. The two-time MVP only has nine points in the fourth quarter of the first four contests of these finals. His scoring has dropped in each game of the finals, from 24 in Game 1, to 20 in Game 2, to 17 on Sunday, to Tuesday’s single-digit “effort.” Not surprisingly, so has his shooting percentages (56% in Game 1, to 53%, to 43%, to Tuesday’s woeful 27% clip).

Heat coach Erik Spoelstra is predicting a different LeBron James on the court for Game 5. “He will be more aggressive and have more of an attack mentality (Thursday) night," Spoelstra said. "He doesn't need to overthink it. He's a great player. He's a proven player ... We will do some things to help him, put him in positions to be aggressive."

While the bible says that the meek shall inherit the earth, it has been the meek James who has allowed the Mavericks to inherit control of the fourth quarters of the past three games, as Dallas has pulled out two victories behind its superstar, Dirk Nowitzki. Nowitzki scored the final nine points of Game 2, including the game-winning basket with 3.6 seconds to play. In Game 3 he scored his team’s final 12 points in a two-point loss. Tuesday he overcame a 101-degree fever to score 10 fourth-quarter points to will his team to victory. Nowitzki said he felt much better on Wednesday, and was squarely focusing ahead, on Game 5. "I think we have to be ready for anything," he said. "I think usually it's the team that loses that looks at the film and says, 'Hey, we have to do this.' Usually the team that loses has more of an edge, makes some adjustments with the coaches."

One of the telling stats in Game 4 was fast-break points. Miami only outscored Dallas 11-5. Usually James and Wade are more productive in this area, generating offense with their speed, length and athleticism on the defensive end. If Miami creates those easy baskets early, and gets the NBA’s version of a locomotive train (James) into the scoring column quickly, then the player whom Stevenson thought was ‘checked out’ of Game 4, could be checking back in and making reservations to stick around in the NBA Finals. While much of the focus over the first four games was about who on Dallas could support Nowitzki in generating offense, the discussion has switched to James in a way that no one saw as a storyline in the series a week ago. Can James provide teammate Wade (29.8 PPG in the finals) with enough support to win the pivotal Game 5?

I predict that he will. The James-Stevenson back-and-forth stems to the days when James was a Cavalier and Stevenson was a Washington Wizard, with the teams meeting in the playoffs three consecutive years beginning in 2006. Cleveland won each of those series, taking 12 of 16 games overall. I predict that LBJ will remind Stevenson of his winning form then, and how hungry he is now to move one giant step closer to that first championship.

I expect this razor-thin series to stay that way, with Miami taking Thursday’s Game 5. The FoxSheets show two anti-Mavericks trends, which side with the Heat.

DALLAS is 3-13 ATS (18.8%, -11.3 Units) in home games after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season. The average score was DALLAS 101.1, OPPONENT 98.8 - (Rating = 2*).

DALLAS is 6-19 ATS (24.0%, -14.9 Units) in home games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DALLAS 100.3, OPPONENT 97.2 - (Rating = 2*).

With all four games of the series finishing Under the total, the FoxSheets advises to keep riding the Under based on this trend that is now rated with six stars.

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (MIAMI, DALLAS) - in the finals. (48-8 since 1996.) (85.7%, +39.2 units. Rating = 6*).

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

06/07/11 0-*1-*1 0.00% -*550 Detail
06/05/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
06/02/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

Totals 3-*2-*1 60.00% +400

Thursday, June 9

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 9:00 PM ET Dallas -1 500

Dallas - Under 184.5 500

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NBA Betting: LeBron James, Miami Heat host surging Mavs

It was just two weeks ago that Scottie Pippen said that LeBron James may be better than his former teammate Michael Jordan.

He may want to rethink that opinion.

James struggled once again in the fourth quarter as Miami lost Game 5 in Dallas, 112-103 as 1-point underdogs. The Heat now trail the series 3-2 as they head back to South Beach for Game 6 on Sunday night.

The Don Best odds screen has Miami as solid 6-point home favorites with a total of 187-points. The opening tip will come around 5:00 p.m. (PT).

The Mavericks won Game 4 (86-83) with a 21-9 run to end the contest. They did themselves one better last game with a 17-4 final run after trailing 99-95 with 4:37 left. It was the first time a team won consecutive games this series.

James had a triple-double with 17 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists. However, his scoring woes continued in the fourth quarter, just two meaningless points. He now has 11 total points in the final stanza this series. That’s not a misprint.

Jason Terry scored points 21 last game and was the anti-LeBron by scoring eight fourth-quarter points for the second game in a row. It’s imperative that Dirk Nowitzki (29 points) get sufficient help each game and the JJ Barea (17 points, five assists) experiment as starting point is here to stay.

This was the first offensive explosion of the series. Miami shot 52.9 percent from the field and still lost. That’s because Dallas was at 56.5 percent, including a ridiculous 13-of-19 from beyond the arc (68.4 percent).

Needless to say, the 215 combined points scored soared way ‘over’ the 184 ½-point total. The ‘under’ was 3-0-1 in the first four games with no team scoring more than 95 points.

Both teams are 2-2-1 against the spread this series.

The Heat are certainly down – but not out. They have several things going for them starting with the homecourt. The Lakers came back last year in the Finals against Boston by winning the last two at home.

Dallas is also not going to shoot that well from 3-point land again. Terry averaged 17.7 PPG on 47.5 percent shooting the last three games in Dallas, but just 14 PPG on 38.1 percent the first two in Miami. He needs to have his ‘A’ game to pull out a win.

Dwyane Wade also looks like a man on a mission, doing his share with 23 points last game and making big shots. He’s averaging 28.4 PPG this series and has basically wrapped up Finals MVP if Miami wins (sorry LeBron).

Wade did suffer a hip injury after a collision with the seldom-used Brian Cardinal. He left late in the first quarter and missed the first seven-plus minutes of the third after getting additional treatment. He has two full days of rest and it shouldn’t affect his performance too much if last game is any indication.

The oddsmakers seem to share the optimism surrounding the Heat’s chances. They’re around even odds to win the series despite being the game down.

Miami won Game 1 in South Beach (92-84) before Dallas took Game 2 (95-93) after a 15-point comeback. Coach Erik Spoelstra will certainly remind his guys about that game.

Miami is 9-1 straight-up at home in the playoffs overall (7-3 ATS), while Dallas is 6-3 SU and 7-1-1 ATS away.

Wade is listed as probable for Sunday as is Dallas’ Shawn Marion (calf). Mavericks center Brendan Haywood (hip) missed last game and is listed as questionable. That forced little known Ian Mahinmi into some backup minutes, although starting center Tyson Chandler (13 points, seven rebounds) was solid once again.

Game 7 will be played in Miami on Tuesday night if necessary, and the Heat fans are surely praying that it is. ABC shifts back the coverage to 6:00 p.m. (PT).

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Dallas looks for first-ever NBA title Sunday

DALLAS MAVERICKS

at MIAMI HEAT


NBA Finals
Game 5 – Dallas leads series 3-2
Tip-off: Sunday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -6, Total: 187

It seemed that for the week leading up to the Finals, and the first four games of this championship series, analysts could not talk enough about the defensive element of the matchup. Dallas’ improved defense, and Miami’s suffocating defense. After watching four games where neither team came close to breaking the century mark, the edict of “defense wins championships” appeared to be part of the core beliefs of each squad, especially in the fourth quarter.

Then came Game 5.

And you thought the term “defense rests” was only used in a court of law. Thursday it was on full display on a court of hardwood. The heretofore-vaunted Heat defense allowed the Mavericks to shoot 56.5% from the floor in Game 5 (60% after three quarters). That included an unconscious 13-for-19 from three-point territory (68.4%). The Mavs guard trio of the three J’s -- Jason Kidd, J.J. Barea, and Jason Terry -- buried 10 of their 15 collective three-point attempts for the game. Not that Miami was shabby either, sinking 52.9% for the game. The Heat just couldn’t make their shots down the stretch. Again. Dallas’ 112-103 Game 5 victory featured another kind of close-out effort from the Mavericks previous two wins. This fourth quarter involved less defense, and more offense, much more. Like a shootout in the old west, these Mavericks had a few more revolvers in their holster when it counted. In the final 4:23 of play, Dallas dusted Miami with a 17-4 run to end the game. This time it wasn’t just Dirk Nowitzki (29 points), but the whole team that was clutch down the stretch.

“We are getting the same looks we knew we would get," Terry said. "After Games 1 and 2, you watch it on film, you see it and then you realize you're going to have the opportunities. I said to myself, I said to my teammates, we're not going to continue to miss those open shots that we're getting."

And true to his word, they did not.

Terry (21 points) scored eight points in the game’s final four minutes, including two big three-pointers. Kidd (13 points) also added a trey and two free throws during that stretch. The future Hall-of-Famer bounced back with a fury after a Game 4 which saw him tally just three assists, three rebounds, four turnovers and zero points. Barea’s bounce-back effort was even more pronounced. After sitting 8-for-32 entering Thursday, the little guard from Puerto Rico played by far his best game of the Finals, tallying 17 points on 54.5% shooting, going 4-of-5 from three-point territory.

While Dallas’ stars past, present, and reserves all stepped up, Miami’s stars were either ailing or evaporating amid the spotlight of a pivotal game. Dwyane Wade hurt his hip in the first quarter, left the game, returned in the first half, sat at the start of the second half, and returned again. He led Miami with 23 points, and made the three-pointer that put his team up 99-95 in the fourth, as they appeared to be mounting a closing kick. Despite the effort, Wade clearly appeared to be slowed, and while he was able to get to the foul line (10-of-12), his limited minutes (34) and limited shot attempts (6-for-12 for the night) hindered Miami’s comeback efforts. "I don't talk about injuries," Wade said. "It was unfortunate I had to leave the game, but I came back and finished it."

Once again, LeBron James did on the court what a scoop of ice cream would do after 46 minutes in the Dallas sun: soften, and then melt. James followed up his scoreless fourth quarter from Tuesday, with a fourth quarter that included one basket, which came on an uncontested driving hoop with 0:29 left in the game and Miami down five. Through five games of the finals, James has scored a total of 11 points in the fourth quarter. If this is how a King performs in crunch time, James may be forced to abdicate his throne to Nowitzki, who scored the final nine points in his team’s Game 2 win, the final 12 points of his team’s 88-86 loss in Game 3, and 10 of the Mavs 21 fourth-quarter points in the Game 4 victory (while nursing a 101-degree fever). While James did register a triple double in Thursday (17 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists), his 8-for-19 shooting night did little to keep the pressure on Dallas to play defense for the 46 minutes that he was on the floor. “I could have made a couple of more plays for my team," James said. "But at the end of the day, all it's about is a win or a loss. Triple-double means absolutely nothing in a loss. So we will be better in Game 6 on Sunday."

Which brings us to Game 6, which given the course that this series has taken, will definitely feel like a Game 7 for the Heat, and might feel like a Game 7 for the Mavericks, who are fearful of giving momentum back to Miami, especially knowing that the Heat will own the home-court advantage for the remainder of the Finals. In Game 6, will the Heat feel the pressure that came with “The Decision?” The pressure of a season that had a “Win Or Bust” banner attached to the team from day one, or the pressure to win a must-win game on its home floor with zero margin for error? Whatever the adversity, Miami will surely be lifted by playing on its home court, where it is 9-1 (7-3 ATS) this postseason. However, the one loss was the last game played there, when Dallas took Game 2, 95-93. Whether the Heat can be lifted by their best player during the finals, Wade (28.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 5.0 APG in series), remains to be seen, but it stands to reason that having finished the game on Thursday, two days of rest should put Wade’s hip in better shape for Sunday night.

Even if Wade is physically able, the real question becomes the mental mindset of the most talked about, highlighted, critiqued, and characterized athlete in the sport over the past 11 months (no, not Brian Cardinal). Can LeBron James recapture his dominant form from rounds two and three against the Celtics and the Bulls when he scored 114 points in helping his team take the last four from Chicago? Or how about when he averaged 34.0 PPG and 10.5 RPG to take the last two games of the Boston series? Furthermore, can the Heat pretend that their previously dominant superstar has not become a liability in the fourth quarter?

After 240 minutes of play, the cumulative score in this series is Dallas 463, Miami 459. A championship final this competitive is too good not to have a Game 7 to enjoy, and come late Sunday night, the Miami Heat will have done what the Lakers did last year. Return home trailing 3-2, and force a decisive seventh game. The pick here is Miami to win and cover.

The FoxSheets provide two trends supporting the Heat in Game 6.

Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - poor foul drawing team - attempting <=24 free throws/game, good shooting team - shooting >=46% on the season. (194-121 over the last 5 seasons.) (61.6%, +60.9 units. Rating = 2*).

Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). (89-60 over the last 5 seasons.) (59.7%, +23 units. Rating = 1*).

With both teams finally finding their shooting touches in Game 5, the FoxSheets provides this three-star trend expecting the Over to occur again on Sunday.

Play Over - Home teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (MIAMI) - after allowing 110 points or more against opponent after scoring 110 points or more. (33-8 since 1996.) (80.5%, +24.2 units. Rating = 3*).

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Game 6 - Mavs at Heat

June 11, 2011


Just when the Heat thought all their fourth-quarter meltdowns were behind them after losing Game 4, Miami couldn't close out Game 5 as Dallas captured a victory in its final home game of the season to take a 3-2 series lead. The Mavericks cashed as a pick-em on Thursday with a 112-103 triumph, while the 'over' hit for the first time in the series. Now, Dallas has two shots to win one game and the first championship in franchise history.

There are several burning storylines that continue to permeate throughout this series, starting with the erratic scoring from LeBron James. The Heat superstar put up just two points in the final quarter, as that layup came with 30 seconds left and Miami down seven. James compiled probably the quietest triple-double in Finals history with 17 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists, while playing a game-high 46 minutes. Dwyane Wade was in and out of the locker room after suffering a hip contusion in the first quarter. Wade is expected to start in Game 6 following an economical 23-point effort on just 12 shots from the floor in Game 5.

Dallas finally hit its shots by converting a ridiculous 13 of 19 shots from three-point range, while knocking down 56% of its attempts from the floor. Dirk Nowitzki led the Mavs once again with 29 points, as Dallas had five players score in double-figures for the second straight game. The 'over' was never in doubt in Game 5 as Dallas led Miami, 61-57 at the half, while getting solid scoring contributions from J.J. Barea (17 points) and Jason Kidd (13 points).

The Mavs became only the second team to break the 100-point mark against the Heat in the postseason, a span of 20 games. Miami eclipsed the 100-point plateau for just the fourth time in the playoffs in Game 5, as the Heat is 1-2 SU/ATS after scoring in triple-digits. The 'over' in Game 5 was the first for Miami since Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Bulls, as that game went 'over' the total thanks to overtime.

We're seeing the 10th Game 6 of the Finals since 1996, as the team leading 3-2 has closed out the series in seven of the last nine instances. Last season, the Lakers returned to Staples Center down 3-2 to the Celtics, but Los Angeles managed a pair of wins at home to claim the title. It is slightly profitable to back the team holding the 3-2 edge in this stretch, as these clubs have compiled a 5-4 ATS record.

TEAMS LEADING 3-2 IN FINALS SINCE 1996
YEAR RESULT LINE ATS RESULT

2010 LAL 89, BOS 67 +6 L
2008 BOS 131, LAL 92 -4 W
2006 MIA 95, DAL 92 +6 W
2005 DET 95, SA 86 -5.5 L
2003 SA 88, NJ 77 -6.5 W
2000 LAL 116, IND 111 -7.5 L
1998 CHI 87, UTA 86 +2 W
1997 CHI 90, UTA 86 -6 L
1996 CHI 87, SEA 75 -9.5 W
*TEAM LEADING 3-2 IN BOLD

*HOME TEAM IN ITALICS



VegasInsider.com's Chris David says there are still opportunities to cash in on the series, "As exciting as this year's playoffs have been, gamblers have only witnessed one Game 7, which occurred between Oklahoma City and Memphis in the Western Conference semis. If you have the chance to still play the series price and you like Miami to force a decisive Game 7, then I believe that's the obvious play in this spot."

David believes if you have faith in Miami to win the championship, there's a better route than backing the Heat in Game 6, "Instead of laying points in Sunday's affair or putting up $250 on Miami to get back $100 on the money line, you can grab the Heat at practically even money (-105) on the series at most betting shops. If Miami wins in Game 6, the point-spread on Tuesday will probably be hovering around four points, which means you'll see the money-line on the Heat around minus-200 with a take back on Dallas at plus-180. You might even get better than 9/5 odds (Bet $100 to win $180) on the Mavs since most will side with the home squad in a Game 7."

The Heat opened up as six-point favorites, but the line has quickly dropped to 5 ½ and even 5 points at several books. The total has stayed put at 187 after the high-scoring affair on Thursday. Game 6 tips off at 8:00 PM EST and can be seen nationally on ABC.

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Playoff Results - NBA Finals

June 10, 2011

NBA Finals Results

Favorites are 3-2 straight up
Favorites are 2-2-1 against the spread
The 'under is 4-1
Home teams are 3-2


Visitor Home Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Tuesday, May 31
Dallas Miami (-4.5) 92-84 FAVORITE UNDER 188.5

Thursday, June 2
Dallas (+4.5) Miami 95-93 UNDERDOG UNDER 189

Sunday, June 5
Miami (+2) Dallas 88-86 UNDERDOG UNDER 189

Tuesday, June 7
Miami Dallas (-3) 86-83 PUSH UNDER 187.5

Thursday, June 9
Miami Dallas (-1) 112-103 FAVORITE OVER 185

Sunday, June 12
Dallas Miami

Tuesday, June 14
Dallas Miami

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Wade's hip is OK, ready for Game 6

June 11, 2011


MIAMI (AP) - Heat guard Dwyane Wade thinks his bruised left hip will not be an issue for Game 6 of the NBA Finals.

Wade went through some of Miami's practice on Saturday, took part in the regular team shooting games afterward and pronounced himself fully fit for Sunday night's win-or-else game against the Dallas Mavericks. Dallas leads the best-of-seven series 3-2.

``He'll be ready to go,'' Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said.

Wade was injured in the first quarter of Game 5, retreating to the locker room for treatment and staying in for a second round after halftime before returning to the floor.

He finished Game 5 with a team-high 23 points.

``This is just another day of getting treatment and getting rest,'' Wade said Saturday.

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YOUNG FAN HONORED: At Game 6 of the NBA finals on Sunday night, the Heat will honor the memory of Henry Buchanan, a 7-year-old from Hollywood, Fla., who died Wednesday.

Health officials suspect meningitis as the cause, though tests are still pending.

Friends of Henry's family reached out to the team Saturday with e-mails about how the boy would often wear Heat jerseys and played basketball whenever he could. The team invited his family to Game 6 and planned to show his photo on the video screen before the game.

Heat public address announcer Michael Baiamonte also planned to reach out to the boy's family, since Henry was a fan of his in-game calls.

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DIRK'S MUSIC: When the Mavericks visited Miami in 2006, Dirk Nowitzki was serenaded by cries of ``Da-vid Hass-el-hoff!'' - a nod to the fact that he said during those finals he listens to the actor's music and that it was hugely popular in Germany.

A couple of the taunts have popped up this year, but that '06 scene seems largely forgotten.

Maybe that's because Nowitzki has a different taste in music.

Asked Saturday of his biggest musical influences, Nowitzki said he loves rock these days.

``I have played the guitar for a couple of years,'' Nowitzki said. ``I listen to old-school rock, Led Zeppelin, Stones, stuff like that.''

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DON'T MESS WITH TEXAS: LeBron James has some Texas-sized struggles when visiting the Lone Star State for finals games.

He's averaged at least 23 points in every building over his postseason career - except the ones in San Antonio and Dallas. James averaged 19.5 points in two games at San Antonio in the 2007 NBA finals, and 14 during three games in Dallas this year.

Those are also the only two cities where he shoots under 40 percent in the postseason: 39 at Dallas, 35 at San Antonio.

So far in Miami, there's some comforts of home. He's averaging 25.7 points on the Heat's floor this postseason.

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PACKING DILEMMA: When Miami took a 3-2 lead into Game 6 at Dallas in 2006, then-Heat coach Pat Riley packed one suit, one shirt and one tie for the trip, his way of telling his team that there would be no need for a seventh game.

Mavs coach Rick Carlisle is keeping what's in his luggage a secret for this, the final road trip of Dallas' season.

``I just don't know that that's the right way to go,'' Carlisle said.

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MILLER SURGERY: Heat forward Mike Miller confirmed Saturday that he will need additional surgery after the season to repair a ruptured tendon in his left thumb.

Miller broke his right thumb during the preseason, then hurt his left thumb late in the regular season. He also has dealt with an array of other injuries, but the left thumb will be his most pressing offseason concern.

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BAREA FOR 3: The Mavericks likely did not expect four 3-pointers in Game 5 of the finals from J.J. Barea.

With good reason. He hadn't made that many in a game all season.

Barea was 4 for 5 from beyond the arc in Game 5, after not making more than three 3s in any game this season - and to be fair, he only did that three times, one of those against Oklahoma City in the Western Conference finals.

The Heat might have been better off if Barea made five 3's on Thursday. He's done that twice in his career, and the Mavs lost both times.

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BY THE NUMBERS: Scoring in the NBA will be down about 1 percent this season.

In 1,312 games last year, NBA teams scored a combined 263,091 points. Through 1,310 games this season, they're at 259,925 - which works out, on average, as two fewer points per game.

Sometime next season, someone will score the 11 millionth point in league history. According to STATS LLC, when counting regular-season and playoff games, there's been 10,905,991 points so far in NBA contests entering Game 6 of the NBA Finals on Sunday night.

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STAT OF THE DAY: Dallas star Dirk Nowitzki has made 24 free throws in fourth quarters during this series. The Heat have made 22.

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QUOTE OF THE DAY: ``This series is a long way from over. There's a lot of basketball left. And we're back home. We would rather have it here than anywhere else.'' - Heat guard Dwyane Wade.

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As Mavs try to wrap title, James is focused

June 11, 2011


MIAMI (AP) - The hammer Dirk Nowitzki is so close to escaping is pounding away harder than ever at LeBron James.

The Dallas Mavericks are a victory from claiming the title that James came to Miami to win. It would forever alter Nowitzki's reputation, which has already been elevated enormously during this series as he's ignored injury and illness.

And James is now the target of all the criticism Nowitzki long endured, the one shouldering most of the blame as things go wrong.

``That's just a part of the game if you're the star or the face of the franchise,'' Nowitzki said Saturday. ``If you win, it's great for you, and everybody looks at you. And if you lose, you're going to get hammered. It's just part of the business. I think we understand that, we've been around long enough. I got the hammered the last 13 years, basically. So hopefully this year I can make the hammering go away for a year.''

He has two shots at it. The Mavs can win their first title Sunday night, or Tuesday if the Heat force a seventh game.

That would require a stronger effort from James, who this time a year ago was coming off his second straight MVP award and was three weeks from becoming among the most sought-after free agents in sports history.

Now he's the guy who can't produce in the fourth quarters, with 11 total points in five games, the one with the big name but the puny stats who had to spend part of his off day answer all sorts of questions about what's happened to him.

-Are those 44 minutes per game you're playing too much?

``I wouldn't say it's too much. I don't think so,'' James said. ``I don't feel like I'm hurting my team for the time I'm out there. I don't feel like it's too much.''

-Is something wrong with your shot technique?

``At this point, I don't think technique has anything to do with it,'' James said. ``Shots go in, shots don't go in. I don't stop to think about my technique or anything like that.''

-Are you simply feeling the pressure of the finals stage?

``I think the game of basketball can be pressure,'' James said. ``It doesn't matter if it's the finals or the conference finals or first round. Playoff basketball is all about pressure, how you can handle it.''

James did allow that perhaps he hasn't been as aggressive in the fourth quarter because Dwyane Wade has been playing so well. Wade is averaging 28.4 points - 11 more than James, who also trails Chris Bosh.

``He's one of the best players in the world,'' Wade said. ``So we're not necessarily concerned about him to that extent. I want him to play and feel confident.''

James noted that he did have a triple-double last game, but even with 17 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists, he said, ``I had a bad game in a lot of people's eyes. I understand that.''

Nowitzki knows the feeling. He has been the lone big star on a Dallas team that's won 50 games for 11 straight seasons, yet he's known best for his failures: the collapse after a 2-0 lead over Miami in the 2006 finals, the first-round loss to eighth-seeded Golden State in the first round the next year after winning 67 games.

He was tagged as soft - a label many European players receive - and given derisive nicknames such as No-win-ski or No-ring-ski. But he showed plenty of toughness Saturday when he fired back at Wade and James after they appeared to be mocking his recent illness on a video that made the rounds Friday.

Nowitzki called it ``a little childish, a little ignorant,'' but denied that it would give him any added motivation to claim the ring he's been chasing for 13 years.

``We're one win away from my dream, what I've worked on for half my life,'' Nowitzki said. ``This is really all I'm worried about, this is all I'm focusing on, and not really the off-the-court stuff that happened.''

James and Wade downplayed the video, but even if their intentions weren't malicious, it gave Heat haters yet another reason to dislike the team that already provided so many from the moment they came together last summer.

Though they took less money than allowable, the James-Wade-Bosh union left little room to fill out the lower half of the roster. That didn't matter earlier in the playoffs, when the trio played well enough to win with whatever support it got. Now James is well below his usual, Bosh is shooting just 37 percent, and the Mavericks' superior depth is helping them pull out close games at the end.

The Mavericks' nine-point victory in Game 5 was the biggest by either team in the series, in which Dallas has outscored Miami 463-459. The previous three had been decided by three points or fewer, and the Heat know they've been good enough to realize they can easily win the next two.

``This is about as close as you can possibly have a series, and you have to stay the course,'' coach Erik Spoelstra said. ``We're doing a lot of things well. It's a possession game, possession series, it goes down to the end. We're a very good closing team on both ends of the court.

``They've been able to do it better than us in three of the games, but we feel very confident coming home and being able to do the things we've been successful at, particularly closing.''

The Mavs are comfortable on the road, where they won Game 2 of this series after a pair of victories at both Los Angeles and Oklahoma City in the previous two rounds. Nowitzki and Jason Terry still remember the pain of watching the Heat celebrate on their floor five years ago, and now they've got the chance for the ultimate payback.

``We feel that we can execute on the road as well,'' Nowitzki said. ``We have a bunch of veterans that are road-tested and hopefully we can get a big game tomorrow.''

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Heat hope the comforts of home will help

June 11, 2011


MIAMI (AP) - LeBron James knows his fourth-quarter offense in these NBA finals have been broken down countless ways, all with relatively the same conclusion.

They're not good.

He's got 11 points in the fourth quarters of the five games on 25-percent shooting, has missed all seven of his 3-point tries, hasn't made anything besides one layup and three dunks, has exactly zero offensive rebounds - the list of his statistical shortcomings down the stretch of finals games goes on and on.

James is neither hiding from that nor making excuses for it, either.

``They're not going in for me right now,'' James said. ``That won't deter me from taking that opportunity once I get them again.''

The opportunity will likely come Sunday, when it's win-or-else time for the Miami Heat.

Trailing 3-2 yet still confident, the Heat say they're already eager for the chance to host Game 6 against the Dallas Mavericks, who would love nothing more than to complete the turnabout from 2006 and win their first title on Miami's home floor.

Miami knows exactly what Dallas is thinking, from being in that position five years ago, so the Heat say they know what to expect as well.

``Game 6,'' Heat forward Udonis Haslem said, ``will be the toughest of our lives.''

James came to Miami for championships. He's said nothing else would allow this season to be defined as successful. So there's no room for error now.

``Nothing that we've done or experienced together has been easy,'' Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. ``Starting from the very first day of training camp going up to an Air Force base and then experiencing all the trials and tribulations of the regular season ... a lot of difficult roads. The same goes true for LeBron. He wouldn't have it any other way than to have his back against the wall where everyone is counting him out.''

After Miami lost Game 5 in Dallas, Spoelstra told the team in the locker room that, if given the opportunity at the start of the season, he would accept the chance to play two games at home with the caveat of needing to win both for a world title.

Here's that chance.

It's what the Los Angeles Lakers had to do to top the Boston Celtics a year ago, and the Heat are hoping for that history - not the one where a Dallas-Miami finals is won on the road in Game 6 - to repeat itself this time around.

``That's the way our mentality is right now,'' Spoelstra said. ``We feel very confident coming back here. That does not guarantee you a thing. Particularly in a series that is so competitive as this. But we're playing well enough and doing a lot of good things to feel confident about, you just have to stay the course. There's going to be a lot of ups and downs in a seven-game series. And that's what it's all about.''

Other than being down and having James under more scrutiny than even before - which says a lot - the Heat had some good news on Saturday. Dwyane Wade's left hip is fine, the 2006 finals MVP said, and not only will he play Sunday night but he'll play without any extra padding after bruising the joint in a Game 5 collision with Dallas' Brian Cardinal.

``I'll be totally fine,'' Wade said.

The Heat can only hope James says the same.

He had 17 points, 10 assists and 10 rebounds in Game 5 and the Heat still lost. In Miami's two wins in the series, he's shot 3 for 7 in fourth quarters. In the three losses, 1 for 9.

``To answer questions about what's written about me or anything like that, I don't really feed into it,'' James said. ``It's going to be written no matter what, no matter if I play well or not. I had a triple-double last game. I had a bad game in a lot of people's eyes. I understand that. That's just the situation I'm in. That's the bowl I'm in right now.''

For their part, his teammates say they're satisfied.

Wade has spoken throughout this series about the confidence he has in James. Heat forward Mike Miller calls him ``the best player in the world, period.'' And they also insist that it's not anyone's singular fault - not even James' - that they trail in the series.

``LeBron has made plenty of big shots in this playoff run and hasn't been talked about much,'' Wade said. ``Obviously him not making some shots in this fourth quarters is what everybody is concentrating on. It's not about that end. We're losing ballgames on the defensive end of the floor. That's five guys right there, not just one.''

In all three Dallas wins in the series, Miami has held fourth-quarter leads: 15 with seven minutes left in Game 2, nine with 10 minutes left in Game 4 and a four-point edge with about four minutes left in Game 5.

The Mavericks closed those games on 22-5, 21-9 and 17-4 runs.

``Not going to say every shot they made was bad defense on our behalf,'' Haslem said. ``You have to give them credit. They did knock down some tough shots. Three or four are shots at the end of the shot clock, sometimes a little demoralizing.''

That can't happen on Sunday.

``Playoff basketball is all about pressure,'' James said.

He may be under more of it than anyone else. From how last season ended with the Cleveland Cavaliers to ``The Decision'' to everything that has transpired with Miami, James knows that the only way he can silence some of the criticism is by winning it all.

``(There's) nothing that I've seen over the finals that I didn't know coming into this series,'' James said. ``I understood this is a huge series. It's a huge stage. I want to play well, of course. I want to help this team win a championship. That's all it's about.''

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1 win from title, Mavs not getting excited yet

June 11, 2011


MIAMI (AP) - Here's where all their age and experience, heartbreak and disappointment actually benefit Dirk Nowitzki and the Dallas Mavericks.

They've had two days to get ready for Game 6 of the NBA finals - plenty of time to daydream about commissioner David Stern handing them the shiny, gold Larry O'Brien Trophy as confetti falls and they pull on hats and T-shirts with the words 2011 NBA champions.

Yet their steely resolve remains.

They're strictly thinking about what it will take to beat the Miami Heat on Sunday night, not what will happen if they do.

``I don't allow myself to sit back and relax now,'' Nowitzki said Saturday. ``In these playoffs, one win or one loss can switch the whole momentum. You don't ever want a snowball to start. I don't allow myself to sit back all of a sudden and be satisfied. We got one more big win hopefully to get, and then I can be satisfied.''

Nowitzki isn't giving his version of the ``one game at a time'' cliche. He's been this way the last two months - the last five years, really, ever since the Mavericks went from being on the verge of taking a 3-0 lead in the 2006 finals to losing in six games. The Mavs wound up watching the Miami Heat celebrate their first championship on Dallas' floor.

Nowitzki and Jason Terry are the only players left from that club, and the emotional scars from that collapse haven't healed.

They could Sunday night.

But until it happens, they aren't about to let their guard down. Terry, for instance, said Saturday he's still haunted by the memory of his off-target jumper that could've sent the '06 finale into overtime.

``Sometimes middle of the night, a lot of times first thing when I wake up in the morning,'' he said. ``Definitely every day when I walk into that gym, into that arena. It's something you live with.''

The burden remains for everyone else in the organization.

Case in point: owner Mark Cuban's continued silence, likely to be cracked only when the series is done.

``I think the first time in the finals, the experience was a little blissful,'' said Donnie Nelson, the team's president of basketball operations in '06 and still today. ``Eventually, we did get caught up in (thoughts of winning). Then that opportunity was ripped away. We didn't understand how bad it was going to be.''

How bad was it?

Dallas lost in the first round of the playoffs three of the last four years. Nelson and Cuban kept surrounding Nowitzki with older players, many past their prime. This season, the entire lot of them has a total of zero rings. They also are mostly in their 30s and veterans of at least 10 NBA seasons - guys like Jason Kidd, who has been to two NBA finals; or Shawn Marion and Peja Stojakovic, who in their prime were key players on perennial contenders that couldn't get out of the conference finals.

``Every second-place guy goes through this, whether it's the Olympics or minor league baseball,'' Nelson said. ``You've got to go through that pain. What it does, it creates an insatiable hunger. It forces you to be non-emotional about the moment because you will not allow yourself to get your hopes up. ... When someone steals your car or your girlfriend, you seldom get a second chance. For us to get a second chance, in this fashion, it's really unique.''

The wait has felt interminable to Mavs fans because the club hasn't even been close since 2006.

Dallas has been KO'd in the first round of the playoffs three of the last four years, winning a single series the other time.

Whenever they were bounced, Nowitzki would shrug and say it didn't matter the round because they're all lost seasons if they don't end in a title. That same we-ain't-done-nothing-yet vibe has spread across the locker room.

``We addressed it today,'' Nowitzki said Saturday.

Nowitzki also talked about a video that showed Dwyane Wade and LeBron James appearing to mock the Mavs star for his recent sinus infection.

Wade said he really did cough and turned it into a generic joke specifically because cameras were rolling. He and James blamed others for trying to make a big deal out of it.

While Nowitzki called it ``a little childish, a little ignorant,'' he also brought up that nothing as silly as that will matter Sunday night.

``We're one win away from my dream, what I've worked on for half of my life,'' he said. ``This is all I'm focusing on.''

Kidd is 38, probably closer to his Hall of Fame induction than to his prime years. He's already the oldest guard to start in the NBA finals, and it would be a terrific cap to his career for him to be the oldest ever to win it.

Excited, right?

Wrong. His goal Saturday was maintaining the shooting touch he had Thursday night.

``It's not about 'if we win we win a championship,''' he said. ``It's about doing what we've done all season and having to play hard and find a way to win. Then everything else will fall into place.''