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**StarDust Bum** · 05-28-2011, 12:02 PM

Position-by-position matchups for the NBA finals

May 28, 2011

A position-by-position look at the matchups in the NBA finals between the Miami Heat and Dallas Mavericks:

CENTER: Joel Anthony vs. Tyson Chandler. Chandler receives plenty of credit for giving the Mavericks an interior defensive presence they long lacked, and he can score some, too: He had 14 points and 17 rebounds in a Nov. 27 victory over Miami. Anthony can give the Heat a boost with a timely offensive rebound or blocked shot, but he provides next to nothing offensively. Miami's best lineup probably has Chris Bosh and Udonis Haslem playing together up front. Edge: Mavericks.

POWER FORWARD: Chris Bosh vs. Dirk Nowitzki. Nowitzki is having as good a postseason as anyone, scoring 28.4 points per game and shooting nearly 52 percent from the field. He had two 40-point games in the Western Conference finals and now has the chance to make amends for a low point in his career, when he shot only 39 percent in the Mavs' six-game loss to Miami in 2006. Bosh occasionally found it tough understanding his role as the No. 3 behind LeBron James and Dwyane Wade but has it figured out now. He's coming off an excellent East finals, averaging 23.2 points to earn a shot against his hometown team. Edge: Mavericks.

SMALL FORWARD: LeBron James vs. Shawn Marion. Quickly swept aside in his lone finals appearance, James has done everything it takes to give himself another shot, from clutch 3-pointers to timely defensive stops against the opponents' top offensive player. The Heat know that if they keep it close, James can win it for him. The versatile Marion's insertion into the starting lineup allowed the Mavericks to overcome the season-ending loss of Caron Butler in January, and he even delivered 26 points in the series-clinching victory over Oklahoma City in the last round. Edge: Heat.

SHOOTING GUARD: Dwyane Wade vs. DeShawn Stevenson. Wade wrecked Dallas' first finals appearance, averaging 34.7 points and winning MVP honors as the Heat rallied from 2-0 down to win the series. He scored 42, 36, 43 and 36 points in the final four games. As unpopular as ``The Decision'' might have made James, Wade could hear the loudest boos when the series shifts to Texas. Stevenson is a good defender and will hit an occasional 3-pointer, but the Mavericks will have one of their reserves in here when they need to get anything done offensively. Edge: Heat.

POINT GUARD: Mike Bibby vs. Jason Kidd. Nearly was the point guard matchup in the 2002 finals, but Bibby's Sacramento Kings lost Game 7 of the West finals to a Lakers team that went on to sweep Kidd's New Jersey Nets. Bibby rarely has been a factor since joining the Heat during the season and lacks the speed to take advantage of the 38-year-old Kidd, who has perhaps lost a step on offense but has played terrific defense to give himself a third attempt at a ring. He has guarded Kobe Bryant and the much-taller Kevin Durant at times, and might get a crack at Wade in big spots in this series. Edge: Mavericks.

RESERVES: Mario Chalmers, Mike Miller, Udonis Haslem, James Jones, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Juwan Howard vs. Jason Terry, J.J. Barea, Peja Stojakovic and Brendan Haywood. With Miller and Haslem healthy after battling injuries most of the season, the Heat can put their best possible lineup on the floor at the most important time. Haslem defended Nowitzki well in 2006 and will get opportunities again. But the Mavericks can surround their All-Star with plenty of perimeter shooting off their bench by going to Terry or Stojakovic, and Barea's penetration is a good change of pace from Kidd. Haywood provides a solid backup in the middle to Chandler. Edge: Mavericks.

COACHES: Erik Spoelstra vs. Rick Carlisle. Few coaches had tougher jobs than Spoelstra, who many thought wouldn't be around at the finish even if the Heat were. But team president Pat Riley believes in him and so do the Heat's superstars, whom Spoelstra built into one of the league's best defensive squads. Carlisle brought a similar defensive-minded approach to a team that was previously offense first, and his calm demeanor here will be an upgrade over Avery Johnson, who lost his cool while the Mavs were losing control of the series five years ago. Edge: Even.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-28-2011, 12:03 PM

NBA Betting Preview: Miami Heat and Dallas Mavericks

Dallas is 13-6-1 against the spread in the last 20 meetings with Miami.
The storylines for the 2011 NBA Finals are definitely running deep. Two of the best players on the planet, LeBron James and Dirk Nowitzki, are vying for their first NBA Championship, and one of the two will get it.

This is just one of the many subplots that NBA betting fans will get to take in over the course of the next two weeks, as the Dallas Mavericks duke it out with the Miami Heat for the right to take down the title this year.

The Heat are lined as -190 favorites to take the crown on the NBA Finals odds, while the Mavs are +165.

Of course, we all remember that fantastic 2006 NBA Finals that pitted these two teams against each other. It marked the coming of age for Dwyane Wade as a superstar in this league. Then in his third NBA season, Wade won the MVP honors for that series by helping the Heat overcome a 2-0 deficit to win the title in six games.

Three of the games were incredibly close and could have gone either way, and all three of those close calls went Miami's way. The Heat took Game 3, 98-96, Game 5, 101-100 in OT, and Game 6, 95-92, to win it all for the first and only time in team history.

Since that point, questions have come up about Nowitzki and whether he really has the fortitude to be lead a team to a championship or not. After all, Dallas is only going to be playing in its second NBA Finals in team history, and seemingly every player that is considered one of the elite superstars in the game has his ring or rings on his finger or fingers.

The Mavericks are the one team that has been competing at this type of level for a number of years that just has never gotten the job done, and should they fail again, it will once again be Nowitzki who takes the fall for it.

Nowitzki is averaging 28.4 PPG in the playoffs, up five points from his regular season average, and he had a pair of 40+ point games against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference Finals. More importantly, he is knocking down 92.9 percent of his foul shots, making him one of the five players on the team converting at least 81 percent of his freebees at the charity stripe. Nowitzki is shooting 51.7 percent from the floor and 51.6 percent from beyond the arc.

Jason Terry is having a great postseason as well, averaging 17.3 PPG. He and Shawn Marion are the only other two double digit points per game producers on the team, though Jason Kidd is close at 9.9 PPG.

As expected, the Heat have been all about three players in this tournament, James, Wade and Chris Bosh who has surprised us with some tremendous games in the playoffs, especially against the Chicago Bulls in the Eastern Conference Finals. He's averaging 18.6 PPG and 8.9 RPG.

Still, when push comes to shove, this is the team belonging to the Flash and the King. James is averaging 26.0 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 5.5 APG, 1.7 SPG, and 1.5 BPG, while Wade's numbers are right there at 23.7 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.7 SPG, and 1.3 BPG.

In the regular season this year, Dallas won 106-95 at home and 98-96 in South Beach, covering both sets of NBA odds with ease. In fact, the Mavs have won 10 straight and 16 out of 20 in this series SU dating back to 2004, and the only losses were those four in the NBA Finals. The Mavericks are also 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 clashes with the Heat.

Games 1 and 2 will be played at AmericanAirlines Arena in Miami on Tuesday, May 31 and Thursday, June 2. Games 3, 4 and 5 will be at American Airlines Center in Big D on June 5, June 7 and June 9.

If necessary, Games 6 and 7 will be back in South Beach on June 12 and June 14.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-30-2011, 07:39 PM

NBA Odds: Miami Heat, Mavericks begin NBA Finals

The wait is almost over as the Miami Heat and Dallas Mavericks tip-off the NBA Finals Tuesday night at AmericanAirlines Arena at 6 p.m. (PT). ABC will have the broadcast for the entire series.

This is a rematch of the 2006 Finals, won by Miami in six games, but both squads are dramatically different.

Miami is a 4 ½-point favorite for Game 1 with a total of 187 points. The series price is Miami -175 and Dallas +155.

The Mavericks weren’t expected to be here after winning 57 regular season games, the third seed in the West. However, they dispatched Portland (six games), the Lakers (sweep) and Oklahoma City (five games), piling up a 12-2-1 against the spread mark.

Dallas only has two members left from that 2006 team, Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry. They lead the team in scoring this postseason at 28.4 PPG and 17.3 respectively. The four leading minute producers (Nowitzki, Terry, Jason Kidd and Shawn Marion) range from age 32-38, but they’re rested and ready to go.

Nowitzki is doing what superstars do, elevating a team beyond its overall talent. He’s improved as the playoffs have gone on, shooting a combined 56.4 percent from the field the last two series.

Dallas can’t win without big scoring numbers from the ‘Big German.’ Chris Bosh will get the most minutes guarding him, but Joel Anthony, Udonis Haslem and even LeBron James will get their shot.

Terry will need to be more consistent this series. He’s scored 13 points or less in seven of the 15 playoff games. There’s no other Mav who can be counted on to consistently score, although seven different players overall are easily capable of double-digits.

One guy who likely won’t help at all is Caron Butler. He’s been out since Jan. 1 (knee surgery) and is unlikely to return.

Dallas is scoring 99.7 PPG this postseason and allowing 92.5 PPG. The ‘over’ is 9-6 and 4-3 in its away games.

The Mavericks know this could be their last title shot given the age of their best players. Nowitzki in particular needs a ring to validate his legacy. He shot under 40 percent in the 2006 Finals, while scoring 22.8 PPG. Much better numbers on both accounts are needed to have a chance.

The Heat needed exactly five games each to beat Philadelphia, Boston and Chicago, but their play improved each series. The best example was winning the final four games against the Bulls (also 4-0 ATS) after dropping the opener.

James leads Miami in playoff scoring (26 PPG) and more importantly has excelled late in games. Bosh is averaging 18.6 PPG this postseason, but stepped it up against Chicago (23.2 PPG) and was often the best player on the court. He has certainly quieted his critics who questioned his ability in big situations.

One surprising caution flag has been Dwyane Wade. He averaged 30.2 PPG against Boston on 52.6 percent from the floor, but saw those numbers dip to 18.8 PPG (40.5 percent shooting) against Chicago. No other Miami player is scoring more than 6.5 PPG in the playoffs and that lack of depth is a concern.

Wade is dealing with a shoulder issue and is listed as probable on the Don Best injury report. His teammate James Jones (foot) is also probable and they sat out Sunday’s contract drills in addition to Haslem and Mike Miller.

Dallas’ defensive assignments for Miami’s ‘Big 3’ are as follows. Marion will get the call on James and he’s still very good defensively. Kidd will also get some looks on James and the point guard has a great job helping to control Kobe Bryant and Kevin Durant this postseason despite giving up size.

Shooting guard DeShawn Stevenson will start off on Wade, and he’ll likely play more minutes than normal due to his defensive abilities. Starting center Tyson Chandler and backup Brandon Haywood need to protect the rim and make Wade and James think twice before coming down the lane.

Finally, coach Rick Carlisle will switch things up and play zone defense at times. That’s dangerous as it could provide wide-open ‘threes’ to James and Wade, although the latter is at just 24.1 percent from long-range in the playoffs.

Miami is scoring 92.9 PPG this postseason and surrendering 88.3 PPG. However, its scoring has been higher at home (97.9 PPG), with the ‘over’ 6-0 in the last six there.

Miami is 8-0 SU at home in the playoffs (5-0 ATS in the last five there). However, the last home game against Chicago was a favorable ‘cover,’ 101-93 in OT as 5-point favorites.

Dallas has won its last five road playoff games and is 6-0-1 ATS away this postseason.

The Mavericks were 2-0 SU and ATS in the regular season meetings (the ‘over’ 2-0). However, both games were before Christmas, with Miami still incorporating all its new players.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-30-2011, 07:42 PM

NBA Finals Outlook

May 28, 2011

NBA Finals

**No. 2 Miami vs. No. 3 Dallas**

Series Price: Miami -180 Dallas +160

Series Format: Miami 2-3-2

Game 1 - Tuesday, May 31
Game 2 - Thursday, June 2
Game 3 - Sunday, June 5
Game 4 - Tuesday, June 7
Game 5 - Thursday, June 9
Game 6 - Saturday, June 12
Game 7 - Tuesday, June 14

Head to Head Comparisons (Playoffs)
Team SU ATS Home Away O/U PPG DPPG
70-27 (12-3) 50-46 (10-5) 38-11 (8-0) 32-16 (4-3) 50-46 (9-6) 102.1 94.6
69-28 (12-3) 56-38 (13-2) 36-13 (7-1) 33-15 (5-2) 55-41 (9-6) 100.2 96

2010-11 Head to Head Meetings
Nov. 27, 2010 Dallas (-2.5) 106 vs. Miami 95 OVER 188.5
Dec. 20, 2010 Dallas (+6.5) 98 at Miami 96 OVER 193.5

Skinny: Do you wager on experience or talent? How about age over athleticism? Shooters instead of slammers? Or maybe you like to play the revenge angle? Those questions will be answered soon enough when Dallas and Miami square off in this year’s NBA Finals.

It’s not surprising that the Heat came out of the Eastern Conference. Miami was listed as the clear-cut favorite last summer after the franchise put together an All-Star trio of LeBron James (26 PPG, 8.9 RPG), Dwyane Wade (23.7 PPG) and Chris Bosh (18.6 PPG). The squad definitely hit a few speed bumps during the regular season but the postseason hasn’t seen many detours.

Miami’s weakness during the first 82 games was chemistry and execution, especially in late-game situations. However, all that’s changed in the first 15 playoff contests and you can argue that nobody has been better than the Heat. During this run, Miami has outscored opponents in the fourth quarter in 11 of its 15 playoff games.

Owning the final 12 minutes has helped head coach Erik Spoelstra and the Heat compile a 12-3 record through the first three rounds as the club finished off the 76ers, Celtics and Bulls in five games apiece.

The aformentioend “Big Three” have performed at a high level during the postseason, accounting for over 68 of the team’s 92 points per game. As expected, the bench play has been sporadic but a couple players stepped up in the conference semifinals against Chicago. Mike Miller finally saw his playing minutes increase, plus Udonis Haslem gave a much-needed spark in the paint.

Outisde of that duo, Miami has caught some glimpses from James Jones (6.5 PPG) and Mario Chalmers (6.1 PPG) at times but both are limited, which has attributed to Miami’s depth issues.

Along with the up-and-down bench play, the Heat’s frontcourt remains shaky but similar to their first three opponents, Dallas doesn’t boast a quality post-up player that commands a constant double-team.

Even though the Mavericks aren’t deep inside, they have some serious sharpshooters on the outside plus a go-to guy in Dirk Nowitzki. The German product has been lights out in the playoffs, averaging 28.4 PPG on 51 percent shooting from the field.

While Dirk’s contributions have been noted, the entire Mavericks squad has been on fire offensively (46%) in the playoffs. Jason Terry (17.3 PPG) has helped the team average close to nine made 3-pointers per game in the playoffs. Along with Terry off the bench, Dallas has received a great contribution from backup point guard J.J. Barea (8.9 PPG). He’s been able to spell veteran Jason Kidd in the playoffs and has often played along side the future Hall of Famer as well.

Outisde of Nowitzki, we noted that Dallas doesn’t receive much scoring from the frontcout but they can finish and rebound. Tyson Chandler (9.3 RPG) and Shawn Marion (11.2 PPG, 6.3 RPG) are proven players that can score off drive-and-dish scenarios, which happens often with Kidd and Barea. Those two also have the benefit to kick out to gunners Peja Stojakovic and DeShawn Stevenson, and neither of those two are afraid to pull the trigger.

Miami does have some bangers in Joel Anthony and Zydrunas Ilgauskas but they haven’t shown the consistency to make bunnies in the paint. And that’s why we’ve seen coach Spo go small late in the game because Haslem and Miller, though undersized, can make buckets.

Head coach Rick Carlisle and Dallas weren’t expected by many to get past Portland in the first round, yet they did. Nobody gave them a chance agaisnt the two-time defending champions L.A. Lakers but they swept them in four. After losing Game 2 to Oklahoma City in the Western Conference Finals at home, some pundits brought up the “soft” label again. Sure enough, Dallas ripped off three straight wins to silence the critics.

Still soft? It’s fair to say that until Dirk wins a championship, he won’t be considered tough but that’s probably more geared toward the European stigma. The better term to define this Dallas team is crafty and it’s proven that in this year’s playoffs. Prior to the OKC series, nobody scored over 100 on Dallas. And even the young and atheletic Thunder were held under 100 twice in five games.

Miami’s defense (88.3 PPG) has been incredible as well lately, only surrendering 100-plus points once in the playoffs. Are those numbers a product of the first three opponents? With Dallas averaging 99.7 PPG in the playoffs, we’ll find out soon enough.

Head-to-Head Matchups: Since the Heat rallied from a 2-0 deficit to win four straight games over the Mavericks and claim the 2006 NBA Championship, Dallas has beaten Miami 10 consecutive times. The Mavs are barely profitable in this span with a 5-4-1 ATS record, including a pair of covers this season. When these teams first met on November 27 at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, circumstances were different on both sides.

The Mavs broke things open in the third quarter after grabbing a two-point halftime lead thanks to a 13-0 run to top the struggling Heat, 106-95 as 2 ½-point home 'chalk.' Caron Butler scored a game-high 23 points for Dallas, including 12 points in that pivotal third quarter. Miami's Big Three of James, Wade, and Bosh combined for 68 points, while the Heat shot just 41% of the floor. Six members of the Mavs scored in double-figures, including a 17-point, 14-rebound effort from center Tyson Chandler. The loss was the eighth in the first 17 games for Miami to open the season, as the Heat continued a 1-11 ATS skid overall. However, the defeat jump-started things for Miami, who would win the next 12 games and 21 of 22 to wrap up the calendar year.

Of course, the lone setback in this stretch came at home to Rick Carlisle's team on December 20 by a 98-96 count. The Mavs cashed as 6 ½-point road underdogs, the eighth consecutive 'dog cover to start the season. Miami took a three-point lead heading into the final quarter, but the Mavs closed things out by drilling nine free throws and a huge three-pointer by Jason Terry. The Heat bench received contributions from Mario Chalmers (13 points) and James Jones (10 points), while Terry put up 19 points off the Dallas bench. James struggled again from the floor against Dallas with a 6-for-17 effort, tallying 19 points, while Nowitzki scored a game-high 26 points.

Betting Notes: Miami owns a 37-11 SU and 21-27 ATS mark as a home favorite this season, including an 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS ledger at the American Airlines Arena in the postseason. The Heat's ATS record is a bit skewed due to several big numbers Erik Spoelstra's team needed to cover, as Miami is 7-4 SU/ATS when laying less than six points at home. In 14 games as a road underdog, the Heat is 7-7 SU/ATS, including a 2-2 SU/ATS record in the playoffs. The 'over' is hitting at a 9-4 clip for the Heat since cashing the 'under' in the first two playoff games against the Sixers.

The Mavericks have dominated this postseason from an ATS standpoint with a 13-2 ATS ledger, while going an impressive 7-0 ATS as an underdog. Dallas did most of its 'dog damage early in the season by covering the first 10 opportunities when receiving points on the highway. The Mavs stand at 20-6 ATS in the road 'dog role, including a 16-10 SU mark. Dallas is 35-9 SU as a home favorite, while going a profitable 23-18-3 ATS in this role.

The home team in the NBA Finals has won the series opener in each of the last four seasons, as these clubs all claimed the championship trophy (Spurs, Celtics, and Lakers twice). The last home squad to win Game 1 of the Finals and fail to grab the trophy was the 2006 Mavs.

Outlook: Just about 11 months ago, LeBron James took his talents to South Beach and the first year of his journey is coming to a close. Those following and betting basketball daily know that he’s by far the best player in the Association but that doesn’t always translate into championships. The NBA is all about matchups and while we believe Dallas has more advantages than Miami, so did Boston and Chicago. The Heat have shown the ability to not buckle under pressure and avoid adversity. What happens if Miami gets punched in the mouth? Or is the better question when? Can the Mavericks land that blow? The postseason has been great even though we’ve had a shortage of games. With that being said, we expect a seven-game series and King James to finally claim his first championship. Miami in Seven

**StarDust Bum** · 05-30-2011, 08:11 PM

Playoff Results - NBA Finals

May 30, 2011

NBA Finals Results

Visitor Home Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Tuesday, May 31
Dallas Miami

Thursday, June 2
Dallas Miami

Sunday, June 5
Miami Dallas

Tuesday, June 7
Miami Dallas

Thursday, June 9
Miami Dallas

Sunday, June 12
Dallas Miami

Tuesday, June 14
Dallas Miami

**StarDust Bum** · 05-30-2011, 08:13 PM

Four key statistics for capping this year's NBA Finals

The Four Factors of advanced basketball statistics, though according to Ken Pomeroy, are effective field goal percentage, free throw rate, turnover rate and offensive rebounding rate.

Oddsmakers have the Miami Heat (-175) favored to beat the Dallas Mavericks (+155) in the NBA finals. Let's take a look at the Four Factors, what they mean, and how the two finalists stack up in each category:

Effective field goal percentage

This statistic adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a two-point field goal and its formula is field goals made plus 0.5 times 3-point field goals made divided by field goal attempts (FGM + 0.5 * 3P/FGA).

Say Player A, for example, goes 4-for-10 with two threes while Player B goes 5-for-10 with no threes. Each player would each have 10 points from field goals and thus would have the same effective field goal percentage of 50 percent.

The Mavericks had a slightly higher eFG% than the Heat in the regular season, 52.48-52.44, with Dallas finishing third in the league and Miami fourth.
Center Tyson Chandler led the way for Dallas at 65.4, which ranked second in the NBA to the 68.6 of Los Angeles Clippers center DeAndre Jordan, while forward Dirk Nowitzki had a 54.5 mark. Miami was led by LeBron James' 54.2.

Defensively, the Heat held opponents to a 47.51 eFG% while the Mavericks were at 48.83. Miami wound up third while Dallas was ninth.
The difference between Miami's offensive and defensive eFG% was 4.93, compared to Dallas' 3.65. Thus, the Heat hold the edge in this category.

Free throw rate

This is a measure of how often a team gets to the foul line and cashes in, the formula being free throws made divided by field goal attempts (FT/FGA).
Using the Heat in their clinching victory over the Chicago Bulls in the Eastern Conference finals last Thursday as an example, they made 25 free throws and attempted 66 field goals. So Miami’s free throw rate was 37.9.

The Heat were second in the NBA in FTR during the regular season with a 36.3 mark, Each of the Big Three of guard Dwyane Wade (47.0) forward Chris Bosh (45.0) and James (45.0) repeatedly made their way to the charity stripe. Meanwhile, the Mavericks were just 21st with a 28.6 mark despite the presence of Chandler (72.0), who ranked second in the league to Orlando Magic center Dwight Howard at 88.0.

Dallas was better at keeping teams away from the line with a 27.5 FTR while the Heat was 29.9 as the teams ranked fourth and 13th, respectively. However, Miami has the edge in this category with a difference of 6.38 to Dallas' 1.13.

Turnover rate

This metric is calculated with the formula of turnovers times 100divided by field goals attempts plus free throw attempts times 0.44 plus turnovers [(100 * TO/FGA + (FTA * 0.44) + TO)].

We'll use the Mavericks as an example from their clinching victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder last Wednesday in the Western Conference finals as an example. Dallas had 12 turnovers while taking 78 shots from the field and 36 from the foul line. Thus, its turnover rate was 11.34.

Miami had a 13.52 TOR, which was 19th in the league, while Dallas was 21st with a 13.60 rate. Surprisingly, Bosh was the Heat's best ball handler with a 9.85 mark. The Mavericks were topped by Nowitzki's 9.07 TOR.

Both teams were better at forcing turnovers as Miami was fifth at 12.62 and Dallas was 13th at 12.99. The Heat again holds the advantage in this category, though, with a difference of 0.90 to the Mavericks' 0.61.

Offensive rebounding rate

This measure determines the percentage of offensive rebounds a team grabs and is calculated by the formula of 100 times offensive rebounds divided by offensive rebounds plus opponents' defensive rebounds [(100 * OREB) / (OREB + Opp DREB)].

Using the Mavericks again an example from the win over the Thunder, they had 14 offensive rebounds and Oklahoma City grabbed 34 defensive boards. Thus, Dallas' offensive rebounding rate was 29.17.

Neither of the finalists was very adept on the offensive glass in the regular season as Miami was 19th with a 25.17 percentage and Dallas was 26th with a 24.08 mark. The Heat was topped by Bosh's 6.3 and the Mavericks' leader was Chandler (12.1).

The Heat also held the edge in opponents' ORR, 25.16-24.48. Furthermore, the 0.69 difference between Miami's ORR and its opponents' is better than Dallas minus-1.08, giving the Heat a clean sweep of the Four Factors.

So what we can derive from the Four Factors?

The biggest surprise is that Chandler is much more of a force inside than traditional statistics suggest as his regular-season averages of 10.1 points and 9.4 rebounds were solid but not spectacular. He could be an X factor against the Heat, not noted for its frontcourt play.

However, the numbers show that the Heat are the rightful favorites to win the series

**StarDust Bum** · 05-30-2011, 08:15 PM

What bettors need to know: Mavs at Heat

Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat (-4.5, 187)

THE STORY: The most talked-about team in the NBA this past season has delivered on its vow to reach the NBA Finals. Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Chris Bosh and the rest of the Miami Heat open the best-of-seven championship Tuesday against Dirk Nowitzki and the visiting Dallas Mavericks. It's a rematch of the 2006 Finals, in which Miami captured its first NBA title.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ABC

ABOUT THE HEAT: When James, Wade and Bosh agreed to team up in South Beach last summer, the entire basketball world took notice. The Big Three got off to a slow start but finished the season strong and have been virtually unstoppable in the postseason, routing both the Boston Celtics and Chicago Bulls in consecutive five-game romps. The trio is averaging 68.3 points per game in the postseason, though the Mavericks could be one of the few teams to keep them below that total. Miami's defense has been equally as impressive, allowing just 88.3 points - a total that ranks them second in the league.

ABOUT THE MAVERICKS: Dallas took advantage of a young and inexperienced Oklahoma City club to earn its first trip to the Finals since losing to the Heat in five games five years ago. Nowitzki was the key to the Mavericks' success in 2006 and remains the focal point of the Dallas offense. He's second in playoff scoring at 28.4 points per game and was at his best down the stretch against the Thunder, averaging 11.4 points in the fourth quarter. Nowitzki will likely draw the assignment of guarding Bosh, while Shawn Marion will be tasked with handling James or Wade. DeShawn Stevenson will likely guard the other superstar.

WHO'S HOT/WHO'S NOT: James shook off a rough opening game against the Bulls to average 28.5 points, 8.3 rebounds and 7.8 assists over the final four games of the series. Mavericks guard Jason Terry shot less than 37 percent (24 for 65) against the Thunder and will need to be better, particularly if the Heat are able to limit Nowitzki's scoring.

KEY STATISTIC: +7.14 - The Mavericks' scoring differential in the postseason, tops in the league. Miami is second at +4.66.

SEASON SERIES: Dallas won both regular-season meetings. Caron Butler's 23 points lifted the Mavericks to a 106-95 home win Nov. 27, while Nowitzki scored a game-high 26 points in a 98-96 triumph in Miami on Dec. 20. James averaged just 21 points on 30.6 percent shooting against the Mavericks.

LAST WORD: "Hopefully this time we can finish the job." - Nowitzki on the Mavericks returning to the NBA Finals.

TRENDS: The Mavericks are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven playoff games as underdogs and 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.

The Heat are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as favorites but just 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games playing on three or more days' rest.

The over is 7-0 in the Heat's last seven playoff games as favorites and 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two clubs.

The Mavericks are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games at Miami. If you have any feedback or suggestions for our Editorial Team, please contact us at Editorial

**StarDust Bum** · 05-30-2011, 08:19 PM

Wiseguy roundtable: Expert opinions on betting the NBA Finals

Forget about listening to NBA airheads about the postseason at your water cooler. We assembled an all-star lineup of handicappers to tackle

the biggest betting questions facing basketball bettors in the NBA Finals.

--

Dallas went 2-0 straight up and against the spread versus Miami in the regular season. Does that factor any when you handicap this series because it seems like the Heat are a completely different team now than the one back then.

Ted Sevransky: At this stage of the playoffs, I don't even worry about what happened in the first few rounds, let alone the regular season. By June, just about all regular season data is completely irrelevant, particularly when we're talking about a team (Miami) that has made significant changes to their rotations since the start of the playoffs.

Scott Spreitzer: The Heat are getting better point guard play and are just a much better team overall than they were when they last played the Mavericks. Dallas is also a different team. Caron Butler was a key cog when they swept the Heat and the Mavs style of play has progressed to cover his loss. The early season meetings have no bearing to me when
handicapping the NBA Finals.

Marc Lawrence: No question Miami is a different team today with Bibby and Haslem in the lineup. And while the two revenge motive from the two regular season losses this season should work in the Heat's favor, the fact of the matter is Miami has dropped 10 straight games to the Mavs since beating them in the 2006 finals.

If you were coaching the Heat, which player would you assign to cover Dirk Nowitzki?

David Malinsky: The best way to play it is using a rotation of several players that can help to wear him down. It will start with Chris Bosh, then Udonis Haslem off the bench, and we might even see Joel Anthony in some sequences. But do not be surprised if it is LeBron James at crunch time, the best way of denying Nowitzki the ball. That can be an effective fit because Bosh can shift to the three spot to guard Shawn Marion.

Spreitzer: No one can shut down a 7-footer with the shooting ability he possesses. Play him close and he ends up at the free throw line. Play back and the German import bombs away from the perimeter. I believe the Heat should not commit too many bodies on Dirk. If he scores 30 points per game, so be it. Just don't get caught worrying about Dirk so much that another Dallas offensive option beats you for 25 to 30 points.

What do you expect the total range to be in this series?

Malinsky: We should see the upper 180s for the opener and then adjustments from there. But do not be surprised to see a little more tempo than we have from the Miami games in the last two rounds - the Heat are certainly going to want to get out and run and Dallas could bring the same approach, wanting to beat the Miami defense down the court.

Ben Burns: While they'll move a little from game to game, based on the previous results, I feel that most totals should fall in the 185 to 190 range.

Sevransky: I expect to see totals in the high 180s at the start of this series. Let’s use the 185-190 range.

The West is considered the deeper and better conference but the Heat had to jump some pretty big hurdles to make it to the Finals. Which team had the more difficult path this postseason?

Burns: This is a close one. However, in my opinion, Dallas had a slightly tougher road here. While the Bulls were arguably a more difficult matchup than the Thunder, I believe that the Blazers were tougher than the 76ers and that the Lakers were tougher than Boston, at least with Rondo playing hurt for the Celtics.

Lawrence: Miami. The Heat had to knock down a talented Boston Celtics squad and then dispose of top-seeded Chicago. On the flip side, the Mavericks took care of a struggling Lakers' team and managed to avoid a showdown with the top-seed when San Antonio had the rug pulled out from under them.

Nick Parsons: The Heat had to go through the 76ers, an aging and wounded Boston Celtics team, and the Chicago Bulls who have looked nothing like the club that dominated all others during the regular season.

The Mavericks had to knock off a very dangerous Portland Trailblazers team in the opening round; they then had to knock off the two time defending Champions (which they did in four games); they then dispatched the two time scoring champion and the high flying Thunder in the Conference Finals.

Although they've made it look easier, it's just a testament to how well they are in fact playing at the moment; for me there is no question that the more difficult path has been navigated by the Mavericks.

The Mavericks own the best scoring bench in the Association while the Heat usually struggle to get any offense outside of LeBron, Wade and Bosh. Are the Heat facing a major mismatch here or do you expect Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem to continue contributing?

Malinsky: Perhaps the biggest question going in is how Rick Carlisle handles his bench. While Jason terry and Peja Stojakovic are key scorers in the Dallas rotation, neither is a great defender, and they both face awkward issues here - Terry will have to matchup up against Dwayne Wade and Stojakovic against LeBron James in their usual rotations, and those can be nightmares.

Sevransky: Miami won't win a title without major contributions from Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem. I expect both of those guys to continue to have significant success here in the postseason.

The Heat seem to be a pretty public bet so far this postseason. Do you think there’ll be more value backing the Mavericks in this series as a result?

Malinsky: Under other circumstances we might say yes, but right now we are not sure that the markets are pricing the "current" Miami team, or the one they have seen through most of the regular season.

Lawrence: Most likely. The infatuation with backing the Three Egos grows with each win at this stage of the season whereas the Mavericks have been flying under the radar all season long.

Parsons: Yes. The Heat are definitely the public favorite. The value is on the Mavs.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-31-2011, 05:44 PM

NBA Finals tip off Tuesday night in Miami

DALLAS MAVERICKS

at MIAMI HEAT

NBA Finals
Game 1
Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -4.5, Total: 187

Dallas versus Miami. Game one of the NBA Finals. A series that I see shaping up with the three D’s:

1- Dallas. Big D! Apparently we can’t decide a major sport’s championship this year (the NHL notwithstanding) without the city of Dallas being involved. Dallas’ MLB team, the Rangers, made their first-ever World Series last October. The Dallas Cowboys home stadium hosted the Super Bowl (once the stadium was thawed out). And now the city’s beloved basketball team returns to the NBA Finals to face its Finals arch nemesis, the Miami Heat, in a 2006 championship rematch, where the biggest winner will be American Airlines. No matter who wins, that team will call the American Airlines _____ home.

2-Dirk. Since the last time Nowitzki was in the Finals, he endured the humiliation of being on a No. 1 seed that won 67 games, and lost a first-round series to a No. 8 seed. All of this happening in the same season that he won the league’s MVP award. MVP? Blown out in the first round? Now after 13 years in the league and playing for his third head coach, Dirk has discovered his path back to the finals, and with fellow future Hall of Famer Jason Kidd, Nowitzki will try and shoot his way (off one leg or two, or spinning in the opposite direction) to that elusive holy grail called a championship ring. Last but not least…

3-The Decision. (I don’t need to explain how that got us here do I? Didn’t think so).

Which brings us to game one. Normally we might conclude little from two regular-season matchups that took place months ago, when both teams were seeking their identity, but there are things we can take from the outcome of those two games. Dallas defeated Miami twice, in two pretty close games, a 106-95 victory in Dallas last November, and a 98-96 triumph in Miami in December. The Mavs out-shot Miami in both games (46.0% to 41.3% and 44.6% to 40.5% respectively), and were superior from beyond the arc (41.2% to 33.3% and 38.1% to 35.5% respectively). If you take the total number of boards from the two games, Dallas and Miami were separated by just two rebounds (103 for Dallas, 101 for Miami). The Mavericks under Rick Carlisle have become a much more cohesive unit defensively, and a poised team offensively. What it adds up to is a team that despite the absence of a major second scorer, has been very strong when it comes to winning close games and road games. Since losing Games 3 and 4 of its first-round series to Portland, the Mavericks have not lost on the road in five tries. The only contest that they did lose was a six-point defeat in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals.

Many people expressed skepticism about the Heat’s ability to win close games. Starting the season 9-8 did not help to reduce those concerns. But Miami and Dallas have proven themselves over the long haul the way championship finalists should. The similarities do not stop there. Both Dallas and Miami finished the season a league best 28-13 on the road. Both teams enter the Finals with a 12-3 record this postseason. Both teams eliminated a previous year’s finals participant in the second round this season, as Miami took out Boston in five, while Dallas swept the once-mighty Lakers in four.

Nowitzki and James will be crucial to the success of their respective teams, but with the stakes raised and the competition stiffer in the finals, can LeBron James afford to start Game 1 slowly as he did in the previous three series? James has averaged 19.3 PPG in the three Game 1s of the 2011 postseason, with Miami winning two of the three openers. In Game 2s this year, he averaged 31.0 PPG. Nowitzki scored 28, 28, and 48 in his three Game 1s. If he continues that trend of racing out in an opener to get himself and his team off to a quick start, it will be interesting to see how Miami responds to a hot Nowitzki defensively. Will James draw an extended assignment to check him, and if he does, when will that happen? On the Dallas side, how will Shawn Marion fit into the plan defensively? Will Carlisle look to use him to contain James, or could Marion be utilized to possibly take away Dwyane Wade’s attacking nature.

Based on each team’s conference finals opponent, Miami will probably have to make a greater adjustment to the opposition than Dallas, because the Mavs offensive weapons are much more experienced and numerous than Chicago’s. If Game 1 of the Finals comes down to a final possession the way Games 4 and 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals did, Nowitzki with the ball in his hands will be the tallest scorer on the floor, as opposed to Derrick Rose, who was one of the shortest. That, combined with having Jason Kidd and another shooter on the floor with him at the end of the game, makes the Mavericks a very difficult team to defend in late-game situations. Game 1 is not as much about who is the better overall team. It will be about who will start the series faster, and whether or not the visiting team is equipped to win Game 1 on the road. Based on what we have seen so far this ‘11 postseason, I am convinced that the Mavericks can pull off the series-opening “steal” of Game 1.

I expect Tuesday‘s game to be very tight at the end, and look for underdog Dallas to come away with the victory. The following pair of highly-rated FoxSheets trends support the pick.

DALLAS is 17-4 ATS (81.0%, +12.6 Units) as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season. The average score was DALLAS 98.1, OPPONENT 95.8 - (Rating = 3*).

DALLAS is 37-18 ATS (67.3%, +17.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was DALLAS 99.8, OPPONENT 96.1 - (Rating = 3*).

The Over is 5-1 in the past six meetings between these teams, but this five-star FoxSheets trend expects the Under to occur in Game 1:

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (DALLAS, MIAMI) - in the finals. (40-8 since 1996.) (83.3%, +31.2 units. Rating = 5*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-31-2011, 05:54 PM

Miami and Under in Game 1?

May 31, 2011

Game 1 of the NBA Finals tips off tonight when Miami and Dallas square off from American Airlines Arena. While many hope for an exciting start to the championship round, the recent history shows that most openers come up short. Since 1998 gamblers have witnessed double-digit margins in nine of the last 13 NBA final openers.
Most pundits point to rust and we could see more of the same this season. Dallas has been off since last Wednesday and Miami hasn’t played since last Thursday. This season, the Mavericks (7-1 straight up, 6-2 against the spread) have proven to be much better than the Heat (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) when playing on a break of three days or more.

Despite those solid numbers, it’s hard to ignore that the home team has gone 11-2 SU in the last 13 openers of the NBA Finals. A couple major offshore outfits opened Miami as a five-point home favorite in Game 1 but the number has settled at 4 ½ as of Tuesday.

Dallas backers can take a shot on a money-line price of plus-175 (Bet $100 to win $175) and that might not be a bad choice. The Mavericks have gone 3-0 both SU and ATS in Game 1 of this year’s playoffs. However, Miami is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS in its openers, with the lone loss coming on the road to Chicago (82-103).

The ‘over/under’ has been hovering right around 188 and could see more fluctuation as the tipoff approaches.

Up until last year, total players should make a note that nine of the last 12 openers in the NBA Finals have gone 'under' the number and two of the three games that did go 'over' the total, barely made it. Plus, the other 'over' ticket (Sixers-Lakers 2001) that cashed was helped by overtime.

As we noted in a 2010 June column, the Game 1 total between Boston and the L.A. Lakers opened anywhere from 193 to 194 ½ at most books. The total was bet as low as 190 1/2 and closed at 191, leaving most bettors with a push and some with a bad taste in their mouth. The Lakers led 99-86 with less than 30 ticks left before Paul Pierce converted an old-fashioned 3-point play. L.A. had to take a shot with a two-second differential on the game clock and sure enough, Kobe Bryant finished the game with a 3-point dagger that helped ‘over’ players, plus the arbitrage guys were happy as well.

This year’s postseason has been filled with bad beats, especially on totals. With that being said, take a look at the recent history in Game 1 below and make your call whether to ride the trend or buck it.

Game 1 of the NBA Finals (1998-2010)
Year Matchup Total
2010 L.A. Lakers 102 vs. Boston 89 PUSH 191
2009 L.A. Lakers 100 vs. Orlando 75 UNDER 205.5
2008 Boston 98 vs. L.A. Lakers 88 UNDER 191.5
2007 San Antonio 85 vs. Cleveland 76 UNDER 179.5
2006 Dallas 90 vs. Miami 80 UNDER 194
2005 San Antonio 84 vs. Detroit 69 UNDER 176
2004 L.A. Lakers 75 vs. Detroit 87 UNDER 171
2003 San Antonio 101 vs. New Jersey 89 OVER 187
2002 L.A. Lakers 99 vs. New Jersey 94 OVER 191
2001 L.A. Lakers 101 vs. Philadelphia 107 (OT) OVER 191
2000 L.A. Lakers 104 vs. Indiana 87 UNDER 194
1999 San Antonio 89 vs. New York 77 UNDER 172
1998 Utah 88 vs. Chicago 85 (OT) UNDER 186

**StarDust Bum** · 05-31-2011, 06:02 PM

Donaghy: Official Angles - Game 1

May 31, 2011

By Tim Donaghy

Editor's note: Former NBA referee Tim Donaghy, made his debut appearance on the Power Hours this postseason. Tim discussed a plethora of unique topics with his unparalleled opinions and you can check out our archives page to listen to Donaghy's interview with Brian Edwards from May 12 (that starts at about the halfway mark of the clip). He’ll be featured again this Thursday on June 2 to recap Game 1 and analyze Game 2.

Throughout the NBA Finals, Tim Donaghy will be providing a breakdown for the officials of each game in the best-of-seven series between Dallas and Miami.

Game 1 Officials - Dallas vs. Miami
Official G AHS ARS Over Under
Steve Javie 58 97.98 92.97 24 34
Mike Callahan 72 99.46 95.67 32 40
Bill Kennedy 80 103.51 97.34 41 39
G - Games, AHS - Average Home Team Score, ARS - Average Road Team Score

Check out our Live Odds product to see more great features like our above Official Statistics.

Tim’s Take

Starting at tipoff, the tone will be set for the entire series, with Javie, Callahan and Kennedy sending the message tonight. Whistles will be blown early and often, with the hopes of creating a non-physical flow to the game, and by extension the whole series.

Once the players are beaten into submission by the whistle in the first quarter, the rest of the game should see fewer interruptions. Once adjusted, the focus will be on the players and not the officials.

Javie will control the game and require (with his whistle) that the players and coaches follow his guidelines so that the fans can enjoy a game without having to witness the players’ childish behavior.

Callahan will turn away from any controversy but will jump in early with his whistle to put the damper on any overly-physical play. His early calls will focus on hand checks above the foul line and bumps in the paint.

Kennedy will stay out of the way except for calling obvious fouls. If the game is close late in the fourth he will swallow his whistle and let Javie and Callahan control the outcome. Last year in Boston, Kennedy made several mistakes in the fourth quarter, making his appearance in these finals a bit shocking.

Official Betting Notes - Game 1

(Playoff games in parenthesis)

SU - Straight Up
ATS - Against the Spread

Ex. - Miami has gone 2-6 ATS when Steve Javie was an official in the 2010-11 season

Steve Javie

Miami: 2-6 ATS, including 1-1 ATS in playoffs (Mia/Bos G3, Mia/Chi G3)
Dallas: 2-3 SU/3-2 ATS, including 2-0 ATS in playoffs (Dal/Por G4, Dal/LAL G1) 3-1-1 to the OVER with Dallas

Mike Callahan

Miami: 4-2 SU/ATS, including 1-0 ATS in playoffs (Mia/Chi G3)
Dallas: 4-1 SU, 2-2-1 ATS, including 1-0 SU/ATS in playoffs (Dal/Por G1)

Bill Kennedy

Miami: 4-2 SU, 1-5 ATS, including 0-1 SU/ATS in playoffs (Mia/Bos G3)
Dallas: 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS, including 1-1 SU/ATS in playoffs (Dal/Por G4, Dal/OKC G1)

**StarDust Bum** · 05-31-2011, 07:06 PM

Tuesday, May 31

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Dallas - 9:00 PM ET Dallas +4.5 500

Miami - Under 188 500

**Dat Boi E** · 05-31-2011, 07:19 PM

good luck, Bum!

**StarDust Bum** · 05-31-2011, 11:09 PM

Good Luck to us DAT BOI........

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