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Donaghy: Officials Recap - Game 1

June 1, 2011


By Tim Donaghy


Editor's note: Former NBA referee Tim Donaghy, made his debut appearance on the Power Hours this postseason. Tim discussed a plethora of unique topics with his unparalleled opinions and you can check out our archives page to listen to Donaghy's interview with Brian Edwards from May 12 (that starts at about the halfway mark of the clip). He’ll be featured again this Thursday on June 2 to recap Game 1 and analyze Game 2. Listen Live

NBA Finals Game 1 - Dallas at Miami

1st Quarter

11:22 Quick 3 second violation on Chandler. Ball is deflected and loose. This call is often made early in a game to set a tone to make sure the lane is clear.

10:50 Cheap foul called on Wade. Another foul to set the tone for the game and the series. If this type of play was called the entire game their would be 100 foul calls in the game.

10:23 Jason Kidd is in the lane and never clears. A defender must be within arm’s length of a defender unless his man has the ball or be out completely out of the paint. Kidd is in the paint for 8 seconds, this should be a defensive violation after 3 seconds.

7:49 Bosh sets an illegal screen on Stevenson. Bosh must give a defender time and space to stop and/or change direction.

7:35 Bosh pushes off on this rebound. Dallas keeps the balls as it goes out of bounds, if Miami was able to gain control this foul would need to be called.

5:30 Cheap foul on Nowitzki as James runs into him. Similar play occurs in the second quarter with Barea at 6:54 and no call is made.

4:51 James left foot is clearly lifted and move (his pivot foot) which allows him to pass the ball. Travel missed.

3:47 James lowers his shoulder into Chandler on a drive to the basket. This is an offensive foul missed. This is too much contact to ignore.

37.3 Clear foul on James on Terry’s drive to the basket. Jeff Van Gundy makes a bone head comment about how this should be an offensive foul.

19.1 James pushes off on Barea. He extends his right arm to clear space in order to get his shot off. This is ignored because it would be his 3rd foul. It is contact enough to give James an advantage and should be called.

2nd Quarter

9:54 Jeff Van Gundy makes another bonehead comment. Chalmers can’t dribble the ball and step out of bounds and be the first to touch the ball. Van Gundy has been a coach/commentator for 15 years and doesn’t know the rules.

6:54 Foul missed on Barea drive to the basket. This play is the same type of play that put James to the line in the 1st quarter at 5:30.

2:41 Good no call on this drive to the basket by Wade. Chandler is straight up and Wade causes the contact.

2:00 Haslem pushes off on this rebound. The officials let this go because Dallas retains possession. This foul should be called.

3rd Quarter

11:34 Nowitzki drives to the basket and is fouled. The lead official is blocked out by multiply defenders and Wade comes over and fouls him. The foul is missed as Wade hits him across the forearm.

4:36 Good call on Hayward as he fouls Wade on a drive to the basket.

2:58 Good call on this traveling violation. Haslem moves his pivot foot prior to the dribble. He clearly is not given the same extra step as James.

2:02 Foul missed on this dunk by Chandler. Miller is trying to stop the dunk and is fouling him to prevent it.

4th Quarter

11:40 Travel missed on James. His right foot is his pivot foot and he moves the foot as he gathers his feet prior to the jump shot.

10:41 Travel missed as Hayward shuffles his feet prior to the shot.

8:43 This is not a foul on Nowitzki, Haslem makes no attempt to box him out and he reaches over him.

6:36 Cheap foul on Nowitzki. Miller almost takes off Chandler’s head at 2:02 of the 3rd with no call and this cheap foul is called against Dallas.

5:43 Terry is fouled by James on this 3 point attempt. Terry doesn’t return to the floor before contact is made by James. This foul is missed.

4:35 Not a foul on Miller. Strange call, not sure what the official was looking at.

4:34 James runs into the screener, Chandler is set, correct call.

1:41 James is fouled on this jump shot; he is hit in the head by Marion. Foul missed.

1:36 This is not a foul on Haslen. The officials start to referee the time and score and give Nowitzki is given a gift to make the box score look better.

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Game 2 - Mavs at Heat

June 1, 2011


The Heat drew first blood in the NBA Finals with Tuesday's 92-84 victory over the Mavericks to take a 1-0 series lead. Miami became the seventh straight home team to claim the series opener of the Finals since 2005, while the 'under' improved to 6-0-1 in this stretch. Dallas shot a playoff-low 37% from the floor, as Rick Carlisle's team failed to cover for the third time in 16 postseason contests. The major question heading into Thursday's Game 2 is if the Mavericks' offense can get back on track and even this series up at one game apiece.

Dirk Nowitzki ripped apart the Oklahoma City defense in the Western Conference Finals by averaging 32.2 ppg, while scoring at least 40 points twice. Nowitzki still managed to score 27 points in the Game 1 defeat to Miami, but suffered a torn tendon on his left middle finger when defending Chris Bosh on a drive to the basket. The Mavs didn't receive much help past Nowitzki as Shawn Marion (16 points) and Jason Terry (12 points) were the only other two Dallas players that scored in double-figures. Even though Dallas presents the bigger frontline, the Heat outrebounded the Mavs, 46-36 to win their fourth straight series opener.

The Heat improved to 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS at the American Airlines Arena in the postseason, as the victory seemed in doubt in the third quarter. Miami trailed, 51-43, two minutes into the third quarter following a DeShawn Stevenson three-pointer. The Mavs would score only 10 points in the final 10 minutes of the quarter, while the Heat put up 22 points in that span, capped off by a LeBron James trey at the buzzer. James scored a team-high 24 points to lead Miami to a fifth straight postseason win over Dallas (coincidentally, the Mavs have beaten the Heat 10 consecutive times in the regular season). Dwyane Wade bounced back from a shaky Game 5 effort at Chicago to compile a 22-point, 10-rebound effort, while Bosh scored 19 points in his Finals debut.

Miami's bench proved to be a key factor to victory by outscoring Dallas' bench, 27-17. Mario Chalmers knocked down a trio of three-pointers to finish with 12 points, while Udonis Haslem contributed seven points and six rebounds. Terry's 12 points came on 3-for-10 shooting from the floor, as all three made field goals came from beyond the arc. The one thing that will need to change for Dallas to be successful is the combined 1-for-11 from J.J. Barea and Peja Stojakovic for just two points.

VegasInsider.com's Chris David feels the 'over' could have hit in Game 1 if not for a low-scoring opening quarter, "I was a little surprised to see the total drop two points from Game 1 to Game 2. The game wasn't played at a fast pace and neither team shot well from the field, but there were a couple observations when looking at the box score. Dallas (40%) and Miami (46%) hit a quality percentage from 3-point land, which led to 60 points. And the pair combined for 58 trips to the free throw line, making 44 of them."

David points out that these two teams didn't do most of their damage from two-point range, "Doing the quick math from Game 1, you can see that 104 of the combined 176 points came from the charity stripe and downtown. Are we going to see that again? It's doubtful but it's safe to say that Miami (38%) and Dallas (37%) will improve offensively."

The Mavs failed to cover for the first time in eight opportunities as an underdog in the playoffs with the Game 1 setback, as Dallas isn't sitting in a profitable spot for Game 2. The Western Conference champions own a 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS mark as a road 'dog off a loss this season, while the 'under' has cashed six of eight times in this situation. Miami has succeeded in the role of a home favorite off a win with a 29-5 SU and 21-13 ATS ledger, including seven consecutive covers in the playoffs.


Looking ahead to Game 2 from a totals perspective, David believes that there is value in the 'over' on Thursday, "With a lower total at 186, you need both teams to get 93 points on the board. Most would expect Miami to get there, since it's averaging 97.5 PPG at home in its nine playoff games. And Dallas has scored over 93 in seven of its eight road games this postseason, but the 82 spot it produced in Game 1 on Tuesday was the lowest."

The Heat is listed as 4 ½-point favorites, while the total is set at 186. Game 2 is set to tip off at 9:05 PM and will be nationally televised on ABC.

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Playoff Results - NBA Finals

June 1, 2011

NBA Finals Results

Favorites are 1-0 straight up
Favorites are 1-0 against the spread
The 'under is 1-0
Home teams are 1-0

Visitor Home Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Tuesday, May 31
Dallas Miami (-4.5) 92-84 FAVORITE UNDER 188.5

Thursday, June 2
Dallas Miami

Sunday, June 5
Miami Dallas

Tuesday, June 7
Miami Dallas

Thursday, June 9
Miami Dallas

Sunday, June 12
Dallas Miami

Tuesday, June 14
Dallas Miami




Winners in BOLD

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NBA Betting: Nowitzki, Mavericks feeling the Heat

The Dallas Mavericks are feeling the Heat heading into Game 2 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night. They lost the opener and also suffered a fourth quarter injury to star forward Dirk Nowitzki.

The Miami Heat are identical 4 ½-point home favorites for Game 2 with a total of 186 points. ABC will have the broadcast at 6:00 p.m. (PT).

Miami has also jumped to a huge 330 series favorite after opening at 175.

Dallas dropped Tuesday’s opener 92-84 as 4 ½-point road ‘dogs. It was a four-point game (77-73) with under four minutes remaining, but Miami’s stars proved too much down the stretch once again.

The 176 combined points scored went ‘under’ the 188 ½-point total. The ‘over’ was 6-0 in Miami previous six home games.

The Mavericks had their 5-game road winning streak snapped. They also failed to ‘cover’ after starting 6-0-1 against the spread in road playoff games.

Coach Rick Carlisle’s team has plenty of worrying signs, starting with Nowitzki who tore a tendon on the middle finger of his non-shooting hand. He scored a game-high 27 points, but was just 7-of-18 from the field (38.9 percent).

Nowitzki has carried the team in the playoffs so far, culminating with 32.2 PPG (55.7 percent shooting) last series against Oklahoma City. He’ll likely be forced to wear a splint, which shouldn’t affect his shooting too much, but could hurt his ability to catch the ball as well as dribbling.

Dallas’ big advantage coming into this series was its bench, but it shot just 4-of-22 (18.2 percent) from the field last game while getting outscored 27-17. Jason Terry (3-of-10) and Jose Juan Barea (1-of-8) were the main culprits, with many of the shots uncontested.

Rebounding was also an issue. Miami had 16 offensive rebounds compared to just six for Dallas. Miami was killed in that category last series against Chicago (70-35 differential overall).

Dallas center Tyson Chandler had just four rebounds last game in 34 minutes and was outplayed by his backup Brendan Haywood (seven rebounds in 14 minutes). Chandler needs to do a much job on Thursday. Nowitzki had eight boards in over 40 minutes and his injury could hinder him in corralling loose rebounds.

The Mavericks are now trailing in a series for the first time this postseason. However, they’re a veteran group that shouldn’t get rattled easily.

The Heat improved their postseason home record to 9-0 straight up. That includes ‘covers’ in the last six there. They’re 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five overall, taking four straight from the Bulls.

Coach Erik Spoelstra’s guys had an interesting box score last game, getting a combined 65 points and 28 rebounds from LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. The other two starters, point guard Mike Bibby and center Joel Anthony, combined for a goose egg (zero points).

Bibby missed all four shots, each from beyond the arc and with Dallas basically daring him to shoot. He provides almost no value if he’s not shooting well, which is why backup Mario Chalmers got 28 minutes (12 points). Expect to see a lot of time from Chalmers going forward.

Udonis Haslem was also a key figure. The 6-foot-8 forward had seven points and six rebounds off the bench in 30 minutes. He was effective guarding Nowitzki, just as he was during the 2006 Finals. That’s impressive for a guy who missed almost all of the regular season with a foot injury.

The Heat are brimming with confidence in these late fourth quarter situations. Not only do they have multiple scoring options with their three superstars, but they also feel their lockdown defense can make the big stops when needed.

The series will shift to ‘Big D’ for Game 3 on Sunday. ABC will have the broadcast at an earlier 5:00 p.m. (PT). The Mavs can’t afford to fall behind 2-0 even though Miami rebounded from the same margin against them in the 2006 Finals.

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Thursday, June 2

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Dallas - 9:00 PM ET Miami -4.5 500

Miami - Over 187 500

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Heat seek 6th straight playoff win on Thursday

DALLAS MAVERICKS

at MIAMI HEAT


NBA Finals
Game 2 – Miami leads series 1-0
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -4.5, Total: 187

Can something so little be this big? When it was learned that Dirk Nowitzki tore the tendon of his left middle finger in the final minutes of Game 1 of the NBA Finals, immediate panic set in to at least one half of the fan base with a rooting interest in this series. After all, associating words like torn, ripped, and painful with the status of a player whom is averaging more than 28 points a game in the postseason can sound daunting. No one likes to see injuries this time of year, especially one that can affect a shooter who relies on perfection and precision. In many ways the tip of that finger (which is probably bigger, literally and figuratively, than we think since it’s a finger that belongs to a 7-footer) has taken much of the focus of Game 2 away from other factors. After all, it is an injury to Nowitzki’s non-shooting hand, and once the intensity of the moment kicks in, the pain in that finger should kick out. "I think once the game starts, the adrenaline starts flowing, I don't think it will really slow me down much," Nowitzki said. "I'm not really worried about it." Maybe instead of the focus being on one finger, it should be on the 10 hands that belong to the Miami Heat defense. Hands that have found their way into the faces of opposing shooters this postseason with a ferocity and frequency that has made the Heat a notch better than just good. Now they are downright scary, allowing just 85.4 PPG during their current five-game playoff win streak.

Those hands of Miami out-rebounded the Mavericks by a 59-46 margin on Tuesday. The hands forced Dallas into a 37.3% night from the floor with Nowitzki going 6-of-16 from the floor before the injury, and 1-of-2 after it. The Mavericks reserves were only 4-of-22 from the floor, with top bench scorer Jason Terry shooting 3-for-10. Terry had an excuse of sorts, he was covered by LeBron James, a move that no one saw coming. That does not ease the pain of 3-for-10 though. Shots will come and go, and no one expects Dallas to shoot worse in Game 2 after experiencing some of Miami’s defensive pressure first-hand in Game 1. The 37.3% that the Mavs shot was a postseason low for the team. The bigger concern from coach Rick Carlisle’s standpoint is the rebounding disparity. That speaks to effort and hunger, two things that no coach wants to see lacking in a championship final. "The guys that hit first and hit most aggressively and with the most force are going to have the most success. And they did it better than we did,” Carlisle noted. The Heat were also good at chasing their own missed shots. They got 16 offensive boards, leading to 13 more shots than Dallas.

Unlike the two regular-season contests when Dallas shot 45.3% FG and Miami made just 40.9% of its attempts, Game 1 saw Miami out-shoot Dallas. Although the margin was very slim, and both teams were under 40%, it was meaningful, as it showed the reversal of a previous trend. Miami also changed the game by shooting the ball from beyond the arc considerably better than Dallas, another factor that played out differently on Tuesday than it did in the regular season when Miami shot 35% and Dallas made 40% from downtown. In Game 1, the Heat were 11-for-24 (45.8%) from three-point land and Dallas was 9-of-22 (40.8%). Dallas’ perimeter defense was so poor that Miami “had time to set their feet, check the temperature in the gym and then let it fly," center Brendan Haywood said.

More daunting for the Mavericks as they approach Game 2, is the fact that the Heat know that they can improve on their Game 1 performance. That means that LeBron James (24 points, nine rebounds, five assists in the opener) might become even more comfortable in the Finals atmosphere after winning his first game ever in the championship round. It also means that Dwyane Wade might be as dangerous in both halves as he was in the second half of Game 2, when he scored 15 of his 22 points. It also means that if Miami’s FG Pct. margin over Dallas improves, while its defense remains status quo (a.k.a. suffocating), the Mavericks could be in a world of hurt. Thursday will be new territory for Dallas. Down in a series for the first time all season, it now gets a chance to show America how to respond in its first true must-win game of the playoffs. We're a veteran team," said Nowitzki. "You can't get down with a loss. You've got to come back strong on Thursday. I've said it a couple times in this playoff run, if you're the road team, you're happy with a split. So we've got another opportunity on Thursday to get one. Obviously, we don't want to go home down 0-2."

I think the pick here is for the Heat (9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS at home in the 2011 postseason) to hold serve on its home court and also cover the spread. The following pair of FoxSheets trends support the Miami pick.

Play On - Home teams (MIAMI) - when leading in a playoff series, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. (56-24 over the last 5 seasons.) (70%, +29.6 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Road teams (DALLAS) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days against opponent extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days. (74-38 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.1%, +32.2 units. Rating = 2*).

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Heat try to recover for Sunday's Game 3 in Dallas

MIAMI HEAT

at DALLAS MAVERICKS


NBA Finals
Game 3 – Series tied 1-1
Tip-off: Sunday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -3.5, Total: 187.5

Interesting.

In a week that saw two of the most iconic sporting events of the calendar year commence in heart-stopping fashion, you could almost say that what the Miami Heat did at the end of Game 2 was not dissimilar to what took place at the old brickyard in Indianapolis Sunday afternoon. The unthinkable. Leading by 15 points with 7:13 left in the fourth quarter, Eric Spoelstra’s Heat team could see the finish line, they appeared to have enough gas to make it there, they were just minutes (a.k.a. 300 yards) from putting the icing on a brilliant race, then all of a sudden coming out of turn four they went high, got too close to the wall and … next thing you know Dirk Nowitzki is putting on a sponsor’s cap, sipping milk in the winner’s circle, after a 95-93 win which ties the NBA Finals up at 1-1.

The end of Game 2 was not the script that Miami envisioned, then again, the Dallas Mavericks didn’t care one lick about the fairy-tale ending that Miami’s big three had desired Thursday night. The Mavericks top star put it best entering Game 2: “We're a veteran team. You can't get down with a loss. You've got to come back strong.”

Strong is exactly how Dallas came back, in a fashion that was eerily similar to its dramatic comeback victory in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals at Oklahoma City, when the Mavs overcame a 15-point deficit with five minutes to play to force overtime, and win the game. So the comeback thing is something Dallas has proven that it can do. The bigger factor about Thursday’s series-tying win is that the Mavs faced a must-win game for the first time this postseason, and pulled it out under the most adverse of conditions. By doing so, Dallas snapped a four-game losing streak in NBA Finals play on the Heat’s home court.

They also totally erased any doubt whatsoever as to how effective Nowitzki would be, playing with a torn tendon on the middle finger of his left (non-shooting) hand. He scored the final nine points of the game for Dallas, making the game-winning layup left-handed off the glass with 3.6 seconds to play. The “Defending Dirk dilemma” is a component that has been discussed widely during these Finals. As the Heat learned the hard way, Nowitzki and his teammates are a little more dangerous at the end of the game than Derrick Rose and the Bulls were. "You can just sense it in us that we weren't going to give up, we were going to be resilient," Dallas guard Jason Terry said.

How the Heat suddenly discovered a way to let the last 7:15 of the game totally slip out of control is anyone’s guess. The answer to that riddle is one that they mulled over during the plane ride from Miami to Dallas. "That's about as tough a fourth quarter as you can have," Spoelstra said. "When it started to slide, it just kept on going."

"We just didn't execute down the stretch," said Chris Bosh, who shot 4-for-16, scoring just 12 points in Game 2. "There's no shock. There's disappointment. But the reality is the reality. We might as well get used to it and focus on the next one."

The Heat will need to erase from its memory bank the fact that they wasted a superb 36-point effort by Dwyane Wade, as well as a 46.6% shooting effort by the team. Shooting 16-of-24 (66.7%) from the line certainly didn’t help matters in a two-point loss, nor did the curious shot selection in the final minutes of the game, as the team suddenly settled for numerous outside shots as opposed to attacking the rim for scores or additional free-throw opportunities. “We didn't play the way that we normally play, so they deserved it and we didn't." Wade said.

The Mavericks return home was buoyed by not just the win, but the resurgent contributions of their bench, a bench that was outscored (27-17) and outworked noticeably in Game 1. On Thursday, the Dallas reserves bounced back to outscore Miami’s reserves 23-11. Jason Terry shook off his 3-for-10 effort in Game 1 to score 16 points in Game 2, helping to start the comeback that Nowitzki put the final touches on. Dallas also got back to doing the dirty work of rebounding, as they out-boarded the Heat 51-39 on Thursday. The playoff adage says that your reserves play better at home than on the road. If the Dallas bench can up their performance from the clutch level exhibited in Game 2 upon returning to the American Airlines Center, the Heat will need to be ready to respond. Miami is 1-1 on the road in Game 3s this postseason.

Just as Dallas at the start of this series had to adjust to the defensive ferocity of Miami’s big three, the Heat will need to adjust to playing the next three games in one of the loudest and most intimidating buildings in the league. The Mavericks fans want vengeance for 2006, and a carcass with a Heat jersey on it. With momentum, and volume on its side, those fans just might get that wish by the end of Sunday’s game.

The pick in Game 3 is Dallas, which is supported by this FoxSheets trend.

Play Against - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). (70-35 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.7%, +31.5 units. Rating = 2*).

Games 1 and 2 in this series have both finished Under the total, and this FoxSheets trend expects the Under to occur again on Sunday.

Play Under - Any team (MIAMI, DALLAS) - extremely well-rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. (141-86 over the last 5 seasons.) (62.1%, +46.4 units. Rating = 2*).

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NBA Odds: Dallas Mavericks, Miami Heat Game 3

The Dallas Mavericks are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS at home this postseason.
Now we have a series!

The Dallas Mavericks stormed back from a 15-point deficit in the fourth quarter of Game 2 for a stunning 95-93 win to even the series.

The scene now switches to American Airlines Center in Dallas for three games. ABC will have the first one at 5:00 p.m. (PT) on Sunday.

The Don Best odds screen has Dallas as 3-point favorites with a total of 187 ½-points. Miami has plummeted to just a 135 series favorite after riding high at 330 after Game 1.

Miami led 88-73 with 7:13 left after a Dwyane Wade 3-pointer and a little extra celebration in front of the Dallas bench. The Mavericks players took exception, vowing the game wasn’t over and following through on their promise.

Dallas went on a 22-5 run to end the game. Jason Terry scored eight of the first 13 points, but it was Dirk Nowitzki who was the big hero by scoring the final nine, including the game-winner with three seconds left.

Nowitzki put in the final bucket with his injured left hand, proving that the splint on his middle finger (torn tendon) would not end Dallas’ title hopes. Miami could have committed a foul with one to give, but failed to do so. Nowitzki finished with a team-high 24 points on 10-of-22 shooting.

The 188 combined points scored was a ‘push’ of the closing total. Miami’s 92-84 win in Game 1 easily went ‘under’ the 188 ½-point total.

The Mavericks ‘covered’ as 4 ½-point ‘dogs last game. They were 0-2 against the spread in their previous two after starting the playoffs 12-1-1 ATS.

One thing Dallas continues to show is resiliency. It had a 16-point comeback against the Lakers in the conference semis and 15 against Oklahoma City last round. The team’s 30-somethings of Nowitzki, Terry, Jason Kidd and Shawn Marion know another NBA Finals appearance may never come. They’re not going down without a fight.

The Heat have to be wondering what the heck happened. They were 5-0 straight up and ATS in their prior five games and were also undefeated in nine home playoff contests.

Perhaps Erik Spoelstra’s guys were busy reading their press clippings. The media gave Miami a championship coronation after Game 1 with LeBron ‘King’ James already penciled in as Finals MVP.

James scored 20 points last game but was silent down the stretch. Wade was quiet late too despite being brilliant before (36 points). Bosh struggled for the second straight game (12 points) and is shooting just 26.5 percent from the field this series (9-of-34).

The ‘Big 3’ had been dominating late in playoff games with suffocating defense and the ability of James and Wade to get to the hoop. They settled for jump shots late last game and it cost them dearly.

Miami’s bench was also a disappointment, getting outscored 23-11 after winning the battle (27-17) in Game 1. At least starting point guard Mike Bibby had his best playoff performance with 14 points, including four big shots from beyond the arc.

Rebounding was another big factor. It was a 46-36 Miami advantage in the opener, highlighted by 16 offensive boards. Dallas dominated last game (41-30) with just six Miami offensive rebounds. That helped the Mavericks offset their negative turnover margin (18-12).

Dallas is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS at home this postseason. It failed to ‘cover’ the last two against Oklahoma City.

Miami is 4-3 SU and ATS away in the playoffs. However, it buckled down the last two at Chicago, grinding out close wins (85-75, 83-80) as ‘dogs, both games going way ‘under’ the total.

Since the NBA switched to the dreaded 2-3-2 format in 1985, only two teams have swept the three middle games. Ironically, one was Miami against Dallas in the 2006 Finals.

Dallas backup center Brendan Haywood hurt his hip, but is listed as probable for Sunday. The gallant Nowitzki isn’t even on the injury report.

The series will continue in ‘Big D’ for Game 4 on Tuesday. ABC will bump the time back up to 6:00 p.m. (PT).

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Sunday, June 5

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 8:00 PM ET Miami +2.5 500

Dallas - Under 188.5 500

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Will collapse carry over to Game 3?

June 3, 2011


DALLAS (AP) - Dwyane Wade knows in the NBA finals, collapses can carry over.

He was in the Dirk Nowitzki role five years ago, summoning a desperate charge to rescue a team that was down but refused to go out. A furious fourth-quarter rally saved the Heat from a 3-0 deficit and they never looked back, winning four straight to beat Dallas.

The finals hadn't seen anything like that again until Thursday night, and this time Wade was on the wrong end of it. The Heat were almost halfway to another championship celebration when the game suddenly swung in the Mavericks' favor.

Will the series, too?

``I understand once you don't close a team down, they get confidence and life,'' Wade said. ``This is a big challenge for us. We're going to have to live up to the challenge, the hole we dug for ourselves, and we're going to see what we're made of as a team.''

That means he, LeBron James and the rest of the Heat must prove they have the poise the 2006 Mavericks lacked.

``We made it a lot harder on ourselves,'' Wade said. ``We're going to see what we're made of as a team. Now we have three straight games on the road, but I wouldn't want to be in this position with any other team.''

Game 3 is Sunday night in Dallas, giving the Heat two days to think about their seven bad minutes. They made only one field goal after taking a 15-point lead, allowing the Mavericks to pull out a 95-93 victory on Nowitzki's layup with 3.6 seconds left.

Nowitzki, unaffected by a torn tendon in the middle finger of his left hand, scored the final nine Dallas points, including the tiebreaking basket using that hand.

After seizing the Mavs' second chance, he warned that they can't blow it.

``We're going to approach the next one like it's our last. You cannot get a split and get a huge emotional win in Game 2 and then go home and lose Game 3,'' Nowitzki said. ``As far as I'm concerned, the next one is the biggest game of all.''

He's right.

In series tied at one game apiece, the winner of Game 3 is 11-0 since the finals switched to the current 2-3-2 format. Just last year, Boston won Game 2 in Los Angeles to take home-court advantage, lost Game 3 at home, and ended up losing the series in seven games.

``I'm glad we have three games in our place,'' center Tyson Chandler said. ``We just have to take care of business.''

Neither team practiced Friday, but both knew what needed fixing.

The Mavericks did everything but get credit for the assists on Miami's fast-break baskets for nearly 3 1/2 quarters. Careless possessions, a handful coming from point guard Jason Kidd, sent James and Wade the other way in transition, often ending with a dunk.

``We can't turn the ball over against this team,'' Nowitzki said. ``They have two of the most athletic players I've ever seen. If you turn the ball over, it's one or two dribbles there at the rim, laying it in on the other end.''

The Mavs like their chances in the half-court game, and they forced Miami to play it down the stretch. The Heat cooperated by holding the ball too long, forcing themselves into bad attempts just to beat the shot clock, and they realize they have to be attacking the basket to capitalize on the athletic advantages they have.

``They picked up the aggression and it got us out of the flow of the offense where we were taking shots at the end of the shot clock. I know I took a few fadeaway 3s at the end of the shot clock because we couldn't get into our offense,'' James said. ``It's something we'll work on and be better on in Game 3.''

Of course, the Heat's offense would look a lot better if Chris Bosh's shot was falling.

Though he's averaging 15.5 points, he was 4 of 16 from the floor Thursday and is just 9 of 34 in the series as he prepares for three games in his hometown.

``We're faced with a challenge,'' Bosh said. ``We're going to have to go and win on the road. And we've had to do that before, so we shouldn't be surprised that that's our situation now.''

Victory seemed so assured for the Mavs midway through the 2006 series that plans for the championship victory parade began to leak out before the series moved to Miami after two games.

Nowitzki, one of two holdovers from that team, had to live with questions about the collapse ever since, overshadowing an MVP award and all his other accomplishments. But he's writing a new legacy along with his team this postseason, becoming better known for playing from behind.

The Mavericks wiped out deficits in Game 1 against the Lakers and Game 4 against Oklahoma City in the previous two rounds, and didn't lose a game in either series from there. After coming back from at least 15 down for the third time this postseason, the Mavs have become a team that's just as dangerous playing from behind.

``I don't know if confidence is the right word,'' Kidd said. ``We just don't break.''

But the Heat say they welcome the adversity. After all, they were just 9-8 after losing in their last trip to Dallas, so they're used to overcoming it.

``It's a ballgame now,'' James said. ``With the series tied 1-1, we're looking forward to the challenge. It's going to be a difficult challenge for us but we're looking forward to it. We're a confident bunch. We play great on the road. It's going to be a hostile environment. Their fans and team are going to bring everything they have. We have to come out with it all.''

[StarDust Bum]

Game 3, Heat at Mavs

June 5, 2011


The 2011 NBA Finals will shift to Dallas for tonight’s Game 3 at American Airlines Arena. Most betting shops have installed the Mavericks as 2 ½-point favorites with a total of 188 ½. Gamblers can take the Heat to win outright for a plus-125 return (risk $100 to win $125).

Dallas (70-29 straight up, 57-39-3 against the spread) evened the best-of-seven series by rallying from a 15-point deficit in the fourth quarter to win a 95-93 decision at Miami. The Mavs hooked up their backers as 4 ½-point underdogs, cashing money-line tickets in the plus-180 range.

Dirk Nowitzki scored nine straight points down the stretch, including a left-handed layup with 3.6 seconds remaining that proved to be the game winner. Dwyane Wade missed a running 35-footer at the buzzer.

Playing with a torn tendon on the middle finger of his non-shooting hand, Nowitzki produced one of his most clutch performances in perhaps the most important game of his storied career. With the game tied at 90-90, Nowitzki somehow got a wide-open look at a trey from the left wing for the lead.

At that point, was there any doubt what Dirk was about to do? Answer: None!

Nowitzki’s jumper found nothing but nylon to give his team a three-point advantage. However, Jason Terry got lost on the ensuing inbounds pass and Mario Chalmers answered with a 3-pointer from the corner.

But this would be no rewind of Chalmers’ heroics for Kansas in the 2008 national-title game against Memphis. His team wasn’t going to force overtime and win in the extra session.

That’s because Nowitzki would have nothing of the sort. He took Chris Bosh to school off the dribble before delivering his game-winning bucket.

Nowitzki finished with a team-high 24 points, 11 rebounds and four assists. Shawn Marion added 20 points and eight boards, while Terry chipped in with 16 points, five assists and a pair of steals.

Wade made 13 of his first 19 shots before missing at the buzzer. He tallied 36 points, six assists, five rebounds and three steals while committing only one turnover. LeBron James scored 20 points and grabbed eight rebounds, but he had more turnovers (five) than assists (four).

Mike Bibby enjoyed his best game of the postseason for the Heat, draining 4-of-7 treys en route to a 14-point effort. Bibby also had four steals and committed just one turnover. Bosh finished with 12 points and eight rebounds, but he made only 4-of-16 shots from the field.

Miami (71-28 SU, 51-47-1 ATS) will try to bounce back Sunday night at Dallas, where it lost 106-95 during the regular season. To do so, VI’s Kevin Rogers thinks the bench needs to play better.

“The Miami bench was a huge disappointment with only 11 points in Game 2,” Rogers said. “The Mavs’ reserves also had 11 more rebounds than the Heat’s.”

In Game 1, Miami got great production out of the bench. Chalmers scored in double figures and Erik Spoelstra also got game efforts from Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller. But Miller was scoreless in Game 2 and Haslem scored only two points.

As if the riveting rally wasn’t exciting enough, we also had a thrilling finish for the total. Most books closed at 188, resulting in a push.

“Game 2 shouldn’t just be remembered for Miami’s collapse or the comeback by Dallas but for our purposes, it was a classic middle for total players,” VI’s Chris David explained. “Gamblers watched the total drop from 189 in Game 1 to an opener of 186, which offered a lot of value considering the Heat or Mavericks didn’t shoot lights out in the first battle.

“As expected, the late public money pushed the closing total to 188 ½ and even 189 at a few betting shops for Thursday’s affair. Bettors who got down on the ‘over’ early and late saw a great start, with 56 combined points in the first and 101 at the break. The game got tight, which helps ‘under’ bets, and sure enough the number landed on 188.

“For Game 3, the total is hovering between 187 and 188. Dallas has averaged 103 PPG in its eight playoff games at home, and Miami has posted 87 PPG in its seven road contests albeit against much tougher defensive teams in the 76ers, Celtics and Bulls.

Tip-off for tonight’s Game 3 is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

[StarDust Bum]

Heat shake off collapse, gear up for Game 3

June 4, 2011


DALLAS (AP) - After two days of intense film study and painstaking analysis of the final 14 possessions in their end-of-game collapse in Game 2 of the NBA finals, the Miami Heat finally came up with the reason why.

It wasn't a highly technical reason.

``We let one go,'' Dwyane Wade said.

And entering Game 3 of the NBA finals, the Heat will try to let Game 2 go again. The way Miami sees it, carrying over the stigma of that loss - one of the worst late-game collapses in finals history - would only doom them again Sunday night when the scene shifts to steamy Dallas for the first of three games on the Mavericks' home floor.

Dallas rallied from 15 points down in the final 7 minutes to beat Miami in Game 2, outscoring the Heat 22-5 to finish the game and knot the series. Thanks to that win, Mavs' fans still may see another NBA championship celebration, only this time, by the Western Conference champions and not a Heat team that hoisted a trophy at Dallas after the 2006 finals.

``In the playoffs, it's a win or a loss. However it comes by, it's a win or a loss,'' Heat forward LeBron James said. ``We've moved on from Game 2, seen the mistakes we've made. Seen some of the great things we've done as well. It's a win or loss. The series is tied 1-1. We never get too high or too low in the series. We haven't gotten too high or low in the regular season as well.''

Game 3 is crucial for so many obvious reasons, like the Heat wanting not to deal with another stumble and the Mavericks wanting to keep momentum rolling and retain home-court advantage. Statistically, there's proof that it's a Texas-sized swing game as well. Since the NBA went to the 2-3-2 format for the finals, teams have now split the first two games 12 times. In the previous 11, the winner of Game 3 has always gone on to win the championship.

Big whoop, both teams said in response to that one.

``We just can't let up. We're not good enough to just relax,'' said Mavericks forward Dirk Nowitzki, who led Dallas' late-game charge in Game 2 at Miami. ``We need to play with an edge at all times in every game. So hopefully (Sunday), with the crowd behind us, we're going to have a great game. Just looking at this one game.''

Heat coach Erik Spoelstra was more succinct.

``I think both teams have bucked a lot of those numbers and odds up to this point already,'' he said. ``We're a non-traditional team.''

Maybe that's one of the reasons why the Heat were so loose Saturday.

Players arrived at the arena around noon, most with headphones on as they walked off the bus, bobbing heads in time with the music and nodding to people as they walked by. James and Wade were chatting and laughing, a few players checked out the turf that would host an Arena Football League game later Saturday night and some stretched their arms to tap the goalposts as they walked across the floor where a basketball court will be Sunday.

The mood couldn't have been more different from when they walked off the floor in Miami on Thursday, stunned by what just happened.

``We're coming home, but we know that's no guarantee of anything,'' Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle said. ``We've lost at home this year in the playoffs. Now Miami has as well. The venue has significance, but it never guarantees anyone anything. ... The mistake that we're not going to make is feel like coming home is going to be something that helps get us over the hump. It's not going to be like that. Both these teams are too good of road teams.''

Including the playoffs, the Mavericks have won 34 road games this season, tops in the NBA. Miami ranks second with 32.

The Heat also haven't lost consecutive games since early March, winning after all six of their most recent losses by an average of 11.7 points. And in their last 24 games away from home, they're 17-7.

All good signs for Miami now, given that if it doesn't win one of the next three in Dallas, the season will end here.

``We've been a pretty resilient bunch all year,'' Heat forward Udonis Haslem said. ``We've bounced back every time we've been knocked down. I'm expecting the same thing with this situation.''

There's stats the Mavs can point to as ones they like as well, including one that seems particularly significant: Miami rarely wins in Dallas, period.

Dallas has won 12 of the last 14 meetings between the teams at home, six of those coming in single-digit games. Of course, one of those two exceptions was the last time the Mavericks hosted a finals game, June 20, 2006, when Jason Terry missed a potentially game-tying 3-pointer, Wade got the rebound, threw the ball skyward as time expired and Miami prevailed 95-92.

``We're looking at Game 3. That's the only thing on our mind right now,'' Terry said. ``We're at home. What does that mean? It means our building is going to be crazy. We're going to play with a lot of energy. Some of those shots we're missing better go down. That's what home court is all about.''

The series is even.

So, too, was the level of confidence both sides were showing Saturday.

Come late Sunday night, neither of those statements will keep ringing true.

``I know I'm excited for the game tomorrow,'' James said before Miami's workout session on Saturday. ``It hurt. We had time to let it hurt us as much as it could yesterday after the game. But today is a new day. And we're back and focused. We're a confident bunch. Me personally, I'm looking forward to the challenge. It's going to be fun.''

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Results - NBA Finals

June 3, 2011

NBA Finals Results

Favorites are 1-1 straight up
Favorites are 1-1 against the spread
The 'under is 2-0
Home teams are 1-1


Visitor Home Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Tuesday, May 31
Dallas Miami (-4.5) 92-84 FAVORITE UNDER 188.5

Thursday, June 2
Dallas (+4.5) Miami 95-93 UNDERDOG UNDER 189

Sunday, June 5
Miami Dallas

Tuesday, June 7
Miami Dallas

Thursday, June 9
Miami Dallas

Sunday, June 12
Dallas Miami

Tuesday, June 14
Dallas Miami

[StarDust Bum]

Heat go for commanding 3-1 series lead

MIAMI HEAT

at DALLAS MAVERICKS


NBA Finals
Game 4 – Miami leads series 2-1
Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -3, Total: 186.5

NBA Finals series checklist.

One unbelievable double-digit comeback for the ages: check.

One road team winning on the other team’s home floor, breaking a nine-game unbeaten streak in the playoffs: check.

The other road team returning the favor, winning on the other team’s home floor: check.

Two games decided in the final seconds of regulation that could have gone either way: check and check.

Yes Virginia (and Dallas and Miami) we have a series. And if we don’t watch out, we very well may have a classic series.

With its 88-86 victory Sunday night in Game 3, Miami showed the ability to shake off the bad aftertaste of the 15-point lead that it blew in Game 2. They coughed up another lead Sunday (a 13-point, second-half advantage), but this time they proved their detractors wrong by overcoming another late offensive barrage by Dirk Nowitzki (34 points, including the last 12 of the game for his team), and making clutch shots and defensive stops in the final seconds to secure the pivotal Game 3 win. Pivotal because since the NBA Finals went to a 2-3-2 format in 1985, the team that has won game three when the series was tied at 1-1 has gone on to win the title all 11 times. “This is a total win," said Dwyane Wade, who led Miami with 29 points and 11 rebounds. "You want to win the game on the defensive end of the floor and we got a stop."

That stop came courtesy of Udonis Haslem, who despite giving away four inches to the taller Nowitzki, was able to distract the 7-footer into missing a game-tying jumper as time expired. Miami had a two-point lead because of Chris Bosh’s jumper with 39.6 seconds left in regulation that put the Heat up for good, 88-86. It was a fitting piece of retribution for Bosh, who took a painful shot to the eyelid early in Game 3, which appeared to hurt as badly as the shots that Nowitzki made in Bosh’s face late in Game 2 to even the series. Wade and Bosh (18 points, 3 rebounds) each scored seven points in the fourth quarter.

Supporting Nowitzki’s super-human efforts, especially down the stretch of games, has become a major storyline, with much of the focus falling on Mavericks sixth man Jason Terry. Terry was 0-for-4 from the field in the final period Sunday, and has not made a shot (0-for-7) in the fourth quarters of the two games that Dallas has lost. Both he and Shawn Marion were shut out from the scoring column in the fourth quarter, a final 12 minutes of action that saw Nowitzki pour in 15, while the rest of the team only generated seven. "We have to have somebody step up besides Dirk," said Jason Kidd, who had nine points and 10 assists. Despite the suffocating defense of the taller LeBron James making open looks for Terry few and far between, Nowitzki put the onus squarely on the veteran guard. "They keep sticking him [James] on Jet in the fourth quarters and he's been doing a good job," Nowitzki said. "Jet hasn't really been a crunch-time, clutch player for us the way we need him to."

Never one short on confidence, Terry appeared to offer a challenge to King James for the remainder of the series, should the games go to crunch time, and the ball goes to Terry’s hands. "Let's see if [James] can defend me like that for seven games." Terry said. "I had two opportunities (in Game 3)…One in the corner for 3, LeBron closed out. The other one in the right corner, LeBron closed out again, didn't get enough air under it. "Hey, it happens. If I get those same shots in Game 4, I bet I make them." To paraphrase Howard Cosell describing another confident athlete, Muhammad Ali, Jason Terry is awfully truculent.

Whether it comes from the peripatetic Terry, the unorthodox-yet-effective Marion, or the old warhorse, Jason Kidd, the Mavericks need to find another offensive threat in the last six minutes of a tight game, or else, they will be looking down the barrel of the last 48 minutes of the season before they know it. The aforementioned trio was 0-for the 4th quarter Sunday night. They will need to find their shots, or in the case of Kidd (four turnovers Sunday) protect the ball better. Miami forced 14 turnovers. Dallas cannot allow Miami to turn those opportunities into easy baskets when the Mavs so often have to work extra to even generate easy transition baskets. Another X-factor entering Game 4 is Mario Chalmers. Chalmers is averaging 11.0 PPG off the bench for the Heat this series, and is 8-of-19 from beyond the arc, out-shooting Terry (4-of-12) from downtown this series. When Chalmers steps foot on the floor, the Mavericks have got to find him. Twice this series he’s hit long three-point shots in the closing seconds of a quarter.

Tuesday is a must-win situation for Dallas, the type of game you want to have on your home floor, which is exactly what the Mavs will enjoy. Like game 2, I expect the Mavericks to respond, this time at home, with an effort that will even the series. This year marked the first time since 1998 that back-to-back finals games were decided by two points or less. I would not be surprised if Game 4 made it three tight ones in a row. With the stakes as high as they are and the home team desperate for a W, I fully expect that Game 4 will be the best game of the series in a Finals round that already has one classic under its belt. The pick is for Dallas to win and cover.

The following pair of highly-rated FoxSheets trends support the pick.

Play On - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) - off a upset loss as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. (74-34 since 1996.) (68.5%, +36.6 units. Rating = 3*).

DALLAS is 43-22 ATS (66.2%, +18.8 Units) after playing a game as favorite this season. The average score was DALLAS 102.6, OPPONENT 95.8 - (Rating = 3*).

With all three games in the series finishing below the total, there’s no reason to think Game 4 won’t finish Under as well. The FoxSheets expect the Under run to continue based on this five-star trend.

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (MIAMI, DALLAS) - in the finals. (46-8 since 1996.) (85.2%, +37.2 units. Rating = 5*).

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Betting: Miami Heat and Dallas Mavericks Game 4

Home-court advantage has meant little so far in the NBA Finals between the Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat. The Heat lead the series 2-1 with Game 4 in Dallas on Tuesday night.

The Don Best odds screen has Dallas as 3-point favorites with a total of 186 ½-points. ABC will broadcast at 6:00 p.m. (PT).

Miami is back up to a 350 series favorite with history on its side. The Game 3 winner in a tied series has gone on to win the championship all 11 times since 1985.

Miami won Game 3 on Sunday night, 88-86 as 2 ½-point underdogs. The road team has won the last two games as ‘dogs, after the Heat won Game 1 (92-84) as 4 ½-point home favorites.

The 174 combined points scored last game went significantly below the 188 ½-point total. The ‘under’ is 2-0-1 in this low scoring series with Tuesday’s total dropping a couple of points as a result.

Dwyane Wade was Miami’s big gun last game with 29 points and a team-high 11 rebounds. However, the biggest bucket was a jumper by Chris Bosh with 39 second left, the eventual game-winner. Bosh was poked in the eye early in the game and was just 7-of-18 overall from the floor, 16-of-52 (30.8 percent) this series.

Dirk Nowitzki missed the game-tying shot as time expired. He also had a crucial turnover on the prior possession. The seven-footer did score the Mavericks’ final 12 points and had 15 overall in the final stanza.

Nowitzki finished with a game-high 34 points on 11-of-21 shooting. The problem is the rest of the team shot just 17-of-49 (34.7 percent) for 52 points. The supporting cast was much better (49.1 percent shooting for 71 points) in Game 2, the Mavs’ only win (95-93).

Nowitzki will continue to get his points with his finger injury seemingly not that big of a distraction. The key will be Jason Terry, Jason Kidd and Shawn Marion, who really need to help out more, especially in the fourth quarter.

Miami can’t be too overconfident in Game 4. It already blew a 15-point lead in Game 2 and almost lost Sunday after leading by 14 points.

LeBron James was held to just 17 points last game after 20 the prior contest. Marion is doing a fine defensive job, but James needs to be more aggressive going to the hoop, shooting just four free throws last game. It’s Wade (29 PPG) who is looking like the NBA Finals MVP and not the expected James (20.3 PPG).

Miami has now won three road games in a row (3-0 against the spread), taking the final two in the conference finals versus Chicago. The ‘under’ easily went 3-0 in those games with no team cracking 90 points in any of them.

The Mavericks need to get their home mojo back, going 1-2 straight-up and 0-3 ATS in the last three. They lost 106-100 as 5-point home favorites against Oklahoma City in Game 2 last series and won 100-96 as 6 ½-point ‘chalk’ in Game 5.

Dallas backup center Brendan Haywood missed last game with a hip injury. That bumped Tyson Chandler’s minutes up to 40 and he still managed just five points, although he did have 11 rebounds. Haywood is questionable for Tuesday and would be a big help.

Bosh is the only Miami player on the injury list. He’s listed as probable and it remains to be seen if the eye injury hurts him going forward. One thing for sure, his big shot last game should do wonders for his confidence.

The 2-3-2 format means the series stays in Big D for Game 5 on Thursday. ABC will once again have the tip from American Airlines Center at 6:00 p.m. (PT).