The Bum's Eastern/Western Conference NBA Best Bets !

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NBA

Saturday, May 21

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Dallas - 9:00 PM ET Dallas +2.5 500

Oklahoma City - Under 200.5 500

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Oddsmakers do a Zig-Zag

May 21, 2011

Fluctuating NBA Lines and Perceptions With Every Game
One of the most entertaining things beyond the play during in this year’s NBA Conference Finals has been watching the market price fluctuate with all four teams and their future odds. The combination of math and public perception has been greatly swayed as both series are now tied at 1-1 heading into the weekend.

Prior to Game 1 in the East, the Miami Heat were 5/4 (+120) favorites to win the NBA title and healthy minus-185 favorites to win the series over Chicago at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book despite not having home court advantage. The Bulls victory in the opener changed everything rapidly as Miami -- who was a two-point underdog for that game -- looked like they would have serious trouble getting four wins against the more physical team.

Sharp bettors and casual fans alike all saw a raw toughness about the Bulls that instantly gave everyone the perception that this truly could be the end of the road for Miami, a thought that didn‘t come into too many minds prior to the series.

When the Lakers were officially eliminated, there was a growing assumption that the Heat should be able to just show up and the championship would be theirs. In the eyes of most, each of the remaining teams was missing that something special that both the Lakers and Heat have.

Can anyone really envision one of the two west team hoisting the trophy? And before Game 1, didn’t most believe that the Bulls time would come, eventually, but not until next year when the league MVP, Derrick Rose, gets some more playoff time? It was almost by default that the Heat, reluctantly, were put on the pedestal.

But something dramatically changed for everyone when the Bulls won the first game. LeBron James got outplayed by Luol Deng and the Heat got out-rebounded on the offensive boards 19 to 6. All of a sudden, we collectively went into the “I didn’t think they could do it” mode, changing with the wind, as we were reminded about some of Miami’s weaknesses that were exposed.

The series price at the Hilton flip-flopped to the Chicago Bulls being favored (-135), a full dollar move from the opener. Miami odds to win the championship suddenly jumped up to 2-to-1 with the Bulls dropping to become the 9-to-5 overall favorite.

The oddsmakers overreaction mimicked the fans and sports talk show hosts feelings across the nation. Odds placed on each have to be forecasted somewhat not only for what the potential matchup prices will be, but also what side the public will want to bet.

“We were talking about the subject last night (Thursday),“ said Hilton executive director Jay Kornegay regarding series prices. “We were thinking Miami minus-240 over the Mavericks which is kind of a starting point for our future prices.”

The line Kornegay is talking about was of course after the Heat and Thunder won their Game 2 matches, where public opinion flip-flopped again.

“Each game from here on out will have a tremendous impact on the odds and for what price we’ll see in the finals and we‘ll adjust accordingly,” said Kornegay. “Should the Heat finish strong the next three straight and Dallas struggles through seven games, it will affect the price in part because of perception.”

That perception, along with their daily updated team ratings is what dictates the point spread and overall series price which in turn sets the odds to win the title.

The Heat are five-point favorites in Sunday’s Game 3 matchup as they have taken away the Bulls home court advantage. With their impressive Game 2 win, the series price shifted higher than their opener all the way to minus-210 with their odds to win the title dropping to 6-to-5 while the Bulls odds went up to 3-to-1.

We are now back to believing in Lebron James and the Heat. We have even seen Lebron be somewhat of a clutch performer which changes how many feel about the one area of his game that is flawed. We have also seen the imperfections of the Bulls with poor shooting inside and outside the three-point line, which reminded us of how they played at times against Atlanta and Indiana in their first two series.

Oklahoma City now has the home edge in the series and is a 2 ½-point favorite against the Mavericks in Game 3 on Saturday. However, Dallas is still the favorite (-150) to win the series. The drop off in price from the opener to Game 2 is pretty large, though, when comparing the Miami price differential between the two series. Going into the second game, Dallas was minus-400 making it a $2.50 swing off of one victory.

We saw Oklahoma City head coach Scott Brooks make a bold move by staying with the hot hand and leave a sulking Russell Westbrook on the bench that seemed to inspire the team the team to play better. We also saw James Harden look like a superstar and Dirk Nowitzski miss a free-throw to drastically alter our opinions of the Thunder after what was in our mind from game one.

“This is why the NBA playoffs are so great,” Kornegay said, “It’s unpredictable and it’s been a roller coaster ride during each game for everyone involved.”

Although we may not have the sexiest franchises as our final four, we have been given enough drama to keep us watching while also giving us fluctuating odds to match the daily roller coaster of events and perceptions.

LAS VEGAS HILTON SUPER BOOK ODDS TO WIN 2010-2011 NBA CHAMPIONSHIP

MIAMI HEAT 6-5
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER 9-2
DALLAS MAVERICKS 7-2
CHICAGO BULLS 3/1

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Playoff Results - Conf. Finals

May 20, 2011


Third Round Results


Favorites are 2-2 straight up
Favorites are 2-2 against the spread
The 'over' is 3-1
Home teams are 2-2

Visitor Home Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Sunday, May 1
Miami Chicago (-2) 103-82 FAVORITE OVER 181

Tuesday, May 17
Oklahoma City Dallas (-6) 121-112 FAVORITE OVER 194.5

Wednesday, May 18
Miami (+2.5) Chicago 85-75 UNDERDOG UNDER 181

Thursday, May 19
Oklahoma City (+5) Dallas 106-100 UNDERDOG OVER 200

Saturday, May 21
Dallas Oklahoma City

Sunday, May 22
Chicago Miami

Monday, May 23
Dallas Oklahoma City

Tuesday, May 24
Chicago Miami

Wednesday, May 25
Oklahoma City Dallas

Thursday, May 26
Miami Chicago

Friday, May 27
Dallas Oklahoma City

Saturday, May 28
Chicago Miami

Sunday, May 29
Oklahoma City Dallas

Monday, May 30
Miami Chicago




Winners in BOLD

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Heat look to take series lead in Sunday's Game 3

CHICAGO BULLS

at MIAMI HEAT


NBA Playoffs – Eastern Conference Finals
Game 3 – Series tied 1-1
Tip-off: Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -5, Total: 178.5

After closing Game 2 on a 12-2 run, the Miami Heat tied the Eastern Conference Finals at one game apiece with an 85-75 win. The two teams now head to Miami for Game 3 on Sunday night.

Chicago, who was 4-0 against Miami this season before Wednesday’s loss, was outrebounded by the Heat for the first time in their five meetings this season in Game 2. After grabbing 16 more boards and scoring 23 second-chance points in Game 1, the Bulls were outrebounded by four and scored just six second-chance points in Game 2. A big part of the Bulls success in their Game 1 victory was their ability to hit jump shots in their half-court offense, averaging 1.12 points per shot and shooting 44.2 percent. Miami was much better at defending the Bulls in Game 2, as Chicago averaged just 0.60 PPS and shot 28.6 percent in the half-court offense. The Bulls shot 34% overall from the field, including 3-of-20 from three-point land, and converted just 16-of-26 free throws (62%). Derrick Rose was held to just 7-of-23 FG (30%) after going 10-for-22 (46%) in Game 1.

Dwyane Wade and LeBron James combined for 53 points and shot 54 percent in Game 2, after scoring just 33 points and shooting 38 percent in Game 1. Miami was helped with the production of Udonis Haslem, scoring 13 points and grabbing five rebounds in Game 2, his first points or rebounds in a game since Nov. 22, 2010. Haslem, who had only logged seven playoff minutes before Wednesday because of a bad foot, was a big part of the Heat outscoring the Bulls 50-34 in the paint in Game 2.

The Heat have waited for this time of the season since James first announced he was joining Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh (+22 rating in Game 2) on South Beach last July. I like Miami to take control of this series and win Game 3.

The FoxSheets gives two more reasons to fade the Bulls in Game 3:

Play Against - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHICAGO) - after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). (69-33 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.6%, +32.7 units. Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Road teams (CHICAGO) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days against opponent extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days. (72-38 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.5%, +30.2 units. Rating = 2*).

This game doesn’t figure to be as low-scoring as Game 2, but the FoxSheets provides several trend expecting the Under to occur again on Sunday, including this highly-rated one:

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 170 and 179.5 points (CHICAGO, MIAMI) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). (48-18 since 1996.) (72.7%, +28.2 units. Rating = 3*).

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NBA

Sunday, May 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chicago - 8:30 PM ET Chicago +4.5 500

Miami - Over 179 500

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NBA

Monday, May 23

Game Score Status Pick Amount


Dallas - 9:00 PM ET Dallas +3.5 500

Oklahoma City - Under 196 500

[Dat Boi E]

good luck, Bum!

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Mavs look to take 3-1 series lead in Oklahoma City


DALLAS MAVERICKS

at OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER


NBA Playoffs – Western Conference Finals
Game 4 – Mavericks lead series 2-1
Tip-off: Monday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma City -4, Total: 195.5

Dallas finds itself two wins from its second visit to the NBA Finals in team history after a 93-87 Game 3 victory over the Thunder. The two teams meet again in Oklahoma City for Game 4 Monday night before heading back to Dallas Wednesday.

Shawn Marion and Dirk Nowitzki each had 18 points to lead the Mavericks on Saturday. The Mavericks have now won four straight playoff games on the road, tied for the longest streak in the last five seasons. They won despite a less-than-stellar game from Dirk Nowitzki, who for just the fifth time in 116 career playoff games, finished with as many turnovers as made FG (seven). His seven turnovers set a playoff career high. Nowitzki struggled going one-on-one in Game 3, making just 2-of-7 FG on isolation and post-up plays. In the first two games of the series, he shot 15-of-20 FG on these same play types. Nowitzki drew two fouls, both occurring in the fourth quarter, which was the fewest fouls he has drawn in a game this postseason. He drew 24 fouls in the first two games, most of any player in the Conference Finals. The Mavericks bench was back in charge in Game 3, outscoring the Thunder 28-16.

Russell Westbrook was both good and bad in Game 3. The good was his team-leading 30 points. The bad was his not passing the ball and freezing out his teammates. In the first three quarters of the game, there were 12 possessions where Westbrook brought the ball up past half-court and didn’t pass once. In the fourth quarter, Westbrook didn’t pass on 10 possessions. On the game, Westbrook scored 24 points on 7-of-16 shooting (43.8%) when he didn’t pass. Kevin Durant (24 points) may have suffered the most from this. In the first three quarters, Durant had an offensive touch on 47.3% of the possessions he was on the court for. In the fourth quarter, Durant had an offensive touch on just nine possessions, 33.3 percent of the ones he was on the floor. The Thunder used isolation plays 27 times in Game 3, nearly doubling the number of isolation plays run for the series. The Mavericks answered the challenge though, holding the Thunder to 4-for-17 shooting (23.5%) on such plays after allowing the Thunder to shoot 50.0 percent in the first two games.

Durant was held to 24 points for the second straight game, marking the second time this postseason he has scored fewer than 25 points in consecutive games. The performance the Thunder received from James Harden in Game 2 (23 pts, 7 rebounds) needs to return from him or someone else on the bench, or the Thunder will be gone quickly. Also, Westbrook needs to understand that the trust he had in his teammates throughout most of the season (8.2 APG during regular season, just 6.3 in postseason, including 3.7 this series), worked and must return to that for the rest of the postseason. However, Dallas is hungry to get back to the NBA Finals and now can smell the championship that went away in 2006, being warmed up on the stove again in 2011. I’m taking Dallas to win and head back home to eliminate the Thunder in Game 5.

This pair of three-star FoxSheets trends also side with the Mavericks, who are 12-1 ATS in this postseason:

DALLAS is 36-17 ATS (67.9%, +17.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was DALLAS 99.5, OPPONENT 95.9 - (Rating = 3*).

DALLAS is 16-4 ATS (80.0%, +11.6 Units) as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season. The average score was DALLAS 97.5, OPPONENT 95.4 - (Rating = 3*).

And this highly-rated FoxSheets trend likes the Under to occur in Game 4.

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (DALLAS, OKLAHOMA CITY) - in a playoff game, in the 4th game of a playoff series. (36-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (75%, +22.8 units. Rating = 3*).

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NBA Odds: Miami Heat host Bulls in Game 4

The star-studded Miami Heat have gotten little scoring outside their ‘Big 3’ in the Eastern Conference showdown against the Chicago Bulls.

So far, it hasn’t mattered much.

Miami has a 2-1 series lead as play resumes Tuesday night in South Beach. The Don Best odds screen has Miami as 5-point favorites with an ever-shrinking total of 178-points. TNT will have the opening tip at 5:30 p.m. (PT).

The Heat took temporary control of the series with a 96-85 home win on Sunday. They led by just two-points (68-66) early in the fourth quarter before a 17-8 run sealed the deal.

The 181 combined points scored went just ‘over’ the low 179 ½-point total. The ‘over’ is 2-1 this series and 5-0 in Miami’s last five home games.

Miami ‘covered’ the spread as 4 ½-point favorites after winning 85-75 as 2 ½-point road ‘dogs in Game 2. Chicago won 103-82 as 2 ½-point home favorites in the opener, but that seems like a long time ago.

Power forward Chris Bosh had 34 points last game and he’s getting some revenge against Chicago’s Carlos Boozer after some disrespectful comments before Game 1. Bosh (24.7 PPG) is leading Miami in scoring this series, ahead of his more celebrated teammates, LeBron James (22 PPG) and Dwyane Wade (19.7 PPG).

Bosh, James and Wade are combining for 75.7 percent of team scoring this series. That’s even more than the first two rounds against Philadelphia (70.4 percent) and Boston (74.4 percent).

Udonis Haslem broke through for 13 points in Game 2, but no other supporting cast member has hit double-digits this series. The team cut down the rotation to just eight guys last game and a short bench can be expected again Tuesday.

Coach Erik Spoelstra would love a consistent fourth scorer, but Miami can win without one as long as the defense is there. Chicago shot 34.1 percent from the field in Game 2 before 41.6 percent last game.

The Bulls have lost consecutive games for the first time since Feb. 7. Boozer did his best to keep them afloat last game with 26 points and 17 rebounds. Luol Deng added 14 points, but fellow starters Joakim Noah and Keith Bogans combined for just five.

League-MVP Derrick Rose is struggling with just 20 points last game after 21 in Game 2. He’s shooting 35.7 percent in those contests (15-of-42).

Rose is averaging 23 PPG overall this series after much higher production against Indiana (27.6 PPG) and Atlanta (29.8 PPG). He needs to score 25-30 points on Tuesday if the Bulls hope to win.

Coach Tom Thibodeau has had the defensive genius label all season. He needs to keep Bosh under wraps, while also not letting James or Wade go crazy (not an easy task). Offensively, the Bulls need to keep hitting the offensive boards (49-21 advantage this series) and shoot better themselves.

Chicago is 3-3 straight up and against the spread on the road this postseason. It’s scoring just 89.5 PPG, versus 96.3 PPG at home.

Miami is 7-0 SU at home in the playoffs and 5-2 ATS. It’s 4-0 ATS in its last four home games with the lowest margin of victory nine points and an average of 10.3.

Chicago big man Omir Asik is the only guy on the injury report, questionable with a leg injury. He hurt it the fourth quarter last game and didn’t return. Fellow bench player Taj Gibson will see more minutes if the Turkey native can’t go.

The series will go back to the Windy City for Game 5 on Thursday. TNT will have the coverage at 5:30 p.m. (PT) once again. Bulls fans hope their team isn’t facing elimination as it will be nearly impossible to beat Miami three games in a row.

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Game 4, Bulls at Heat

May 23, 2011


The Eastern Conference Finals began with a Bulls' blowout, but the momentum has shifted Miami's way following a pair of victories to grab a 2-1 series advantage. The Heat looks to cool off Chicago once again in Tuesday's Game 4 at American Airlines Arena, while trying to take another step closer to their first NBA Finals appearance since 2006.

Chris Bosh stepped up for the second time in this series with his 34-point performance to lift Miami to a 96-85 triumph in Sunday's Game 3 as five-point favorites. The Heat broke open up a three-point game heading into the final quarter by outscoring the Bulls, 28-20, as Chicago has scored 30 points combined in the fourth quarter of the last two losses. Miami shot the ball extremely well by knocking down 50% of its field-goal attempts, while drilling 25 of 29 free throws.

The Bulls received a terrific game from Carlos Boozer, who put together his best game of the postseason with 26 points and 17 rebounds. However, Joakim Noah contributed very little with one point and five rebounds, while Chicago shot just five of 12 from three-point range. Derrick Rose continues to carry the offense with his 12th postseason game of at least 20 points in Game 4, but the Bulls now have to deal with their first two-game losing streak since February 7.

Miami's trio of Bosh, LeBron James, and Dwyane Wade once again did the heavy lifting offensively by scoring 73 points in Game 4, even though Wade is averaging just 19.6 ppg in this series. The scoring drop-off by Wade against Chicago (as opposed to 30.2 ppg vs. Boston) has been made up by Bosh's second 30-point game of the series after the former Raptors' star topped the 30-point mark just three times in the regular season.

With the loss in Game 3, the Bulls dropped to 13-5 ATS as an underdog this season, including a 10-5 ATS mark when receiving points on the road. Tom Thibodeau's squad is a profitable 5-3 ATS as an away 'dog off a loss, while owning an 8-1 ATS ledger the last nine games off a defeat overall. Meanwhile, the Heat is just 6-8 ATS as a home favorite off a home loss, but four of those ATS defeats came when laying double-digits.

VegasInsider.com's Chris David points out the pendulum swing through the first three rounds of the playoffs concerning the success of favorites and underdogs, "Gamblers following the NBA this postseason watched the underdogs start out strong in the first round before the favorites struck back in the conference semifinals. Things have definitely balanced out as we've gotten deeper into the postseason, evidenced by a 3-3 stalemate between the 'dogs and 'chalk' in the conference finals."

David brings up a valid point regarding the pick-a-winner philosophy through the last two rounds, "Some bettors are still overanalyzing the point-spread and you can make an argument that you shouldn't even look at the number. The spread hasn't matter in the last 32 playoff games, meaning all favorites have won and covered or the 'dog has captured the outright win."

The Bulls are 29-18 away from the United Center, while covering 28 times on the highway. David says that despite the remarkable SU/ATS streak by winning teams, Chicago holds value if it can grab Game 4, "Whether or not that continues will be answered shortly, but if you do you like Chicago tonight, the more valuable play in my opinion is taking them on a generous series price, which is as high as plus-350 (Bet $100 to win $350) at some books. If they win Game 4, you have a best-of-three and great hedge opportunities with the home-court edge."

The Heat are once again favored by five points in Game 4, while the total is set at 178 ½, the lowest number in the entire series. The game can be seen nationally on TNT and will tip off at 8:35 PM EST from South Florida.

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Results - Conf. Finals

May 24, 2011

Third Round Results


Favorites are 3-4 straight up
Favorites are 3-4 against the spread
The 'over' is 5-2
Home teams are 3-4


Visitor Home Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Sunday, May 1
Miami Chicago (-2) 103-82 FAVORITE OVER 181

Tuesday, May 17
Oklahoma City Dallas (-6) 121-112 FAVORITE OVER 194.5

Wednesday, May 18
Miami (+2.5) Chicago 85-75 UNDERDOG UNDER 181

Thursday, May 19
Oklahoma City (+5) Dallas 106-100 UNDERDOG OVER 200

Saturday, May 21
Dallas (+2.5) Oklahoma City 93-87 UNDERDOG UNDER 198.5

Sunday, May 22
Chicago Miami (-5) 96-85 FAVORITE OVER 180

Monday, May 23
Dallas (+4) Oklahoma City 112-105 UNDERDOG OVER 196

Tuesday, May 24
Chicago Miami

Wednesday, May 25
Oklahoma City Dallas

Thursday, May 26
Miami Chicago

Friday, May 27
Dallas Oklahoma City

Saturday, May 28
Chicago Miami

Sunday, May 29
Oklahoma City Dallas

Monday, May 30
Miami Chicago


Winners in BOLD

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Heat try to grab 3-1 series lead over Bulls

CHICAGO BULLS

at MIAMI HEAT


NBA Playoffs – Eastern Conference Finals
Game 4 – Miami leads series 2-1
Tip-off: Tuesday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -5, Total: 178.5

Thanks to a 9-0 run midway through the fourth quarter on Sunday, the Miami Heat took a 2-1 series lead with a 96-85 win in Game 3 of the East Finals. The Bulls and Heat will be back at it on Tuesday, with Miami looking to take a 3-1 series lead, and the Bulls looking to take back home-court advantage heading to Chicago for Game 5.

Chicago’s usually reliable defense failed in Game 3 as it allowed the Heat to shoot 50.7 percent from the field, marking just the second time they allowed an opponent to shoot over 50 percent this postseason. The Bulls are now 2-10 this season when their opponent makes at least half of its shots. Despite out-rebounding Miami 49-38 in Game 3, the Bulls have lost consecutive games for the first time since February 5-7. After scoring 28 points in the Game 1 win, Derrick Rose has been held to 21 and 20 points in the past two contests, marking the first time this postseason that Rose has had consecutive games of scoring 21 points or fewer. Carlos Boozer was outstanding for Chicago on Sunday, scoring 26 points and collecting 17 rebounds. He became the fourth Bull to produce at least 25 points and 15 rebounds in a playoff game since 1991.

Chris Bosh proved to teammates LeBron James and Dwyane Wade that they are not the only ones who can take over a game. Bosh scored 34 points on 13-of-18 shooting to lead the Heat in Game 3. Bosh now has a .674 field-goal percentage (29-for-43) in the series. Over the past 26 years (1986–2011), only Wade (.688 vs. Detroit in 2006) and the Lakers’ Pau Gasol (.696 vs. Phoenix in 2010) had higher field-goal percentages through the first three games of a Conference Finals series than Bosh (minimum: 25 field goals). James handled the ball more often in Game 3, but elected to create for others more than himself. James had a touch on 75.3 percent of the possessions he was on court and shot on just 20.3 percent of them. James’ 10 assists Sunday led to 21 Heat points, compared to just 11 assists and 24 points in the first two games combined.

Miami has done an excellent job holding the Bulls down in the half-court offense in the past two games, as the Bulls shot just 30.6 percent in Game 2 and 40.3 percent in Game 3 in half-court possessions. The Heat looks like they are ready to take over the series. I like Miami to take a commanding 3-1 series lead with a win and cover on Tuesday.

The FoxSheets show this three-star trend expecting the Heat to win again:

Play On - Home teams (MIAMI) - when leading in a playoff series, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. (55-23 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.5%, +29.7 units. Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets also provide a bunch of trends expecting a high-scoring game to finish above the total. One of these three-star trends backing the Over is:

Play Over - All teams where the total is 179.5 or less (CHICAGO) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days. (30-8 since 1996.) (78.9%, +21.2 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Tuesday, May 24

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chicago - 8:30 PM ET Miami -5 500

Miami - Over 179.5 500

[Dat Boi E]

good luck, Bum!

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Betting: Dallas Mavericks push Thunder to edge

The Oklahoma City Thunder are down 3-1 in their series against the Dallas Mavericks as they head back to Big D for Game 5 on Wednesday night.

The Don Best odds screen has Dallas as 6 ½-point favorites with a total of 198 ½-points. ESPN will broadcast at 6:00 p.m. (PT) from American Airlines Center.

The Thunder were feeling fine after splitting the first two games in Dallas. However, a 93-87 defeat as 3-point home favorites on Saturday was just a precursor for more misfortune.

Monday’s Game 4 started out fine for the home team. Oklahoma City had a nine-point lead (31-22) after the first quarter and held off several Mavs’ runs before gaining a 15-point cushion (99-84) with five minutes remaining.

That’s when disaster struck.

Dallas went on a 17-2 closing run to send it into overtime. An 11-4 margin in the extra session gave the Mavs an improbable 112-105 win as four-point underdogs.

Oklahoma City is 1-3 against the spread this series and 2-5 ATS versus Dallas this season (0-4 at home).

Kevin Durant led Oklahoma City with 29 points, but shot just 4-of-17 from the floor after hitting his first five shots. More importantly, he was held scoreless after the five minute mark in the fourth, including a blocked three-pointer that would have won it in regulation.

Durant is one of the NBA’s best players, but he’s only 22 years old, the same as point guard Russell Westbrook. The oldest starters are small forward Thabo Sefolosha and center Kendrick Perkins at 27 and 26 respectively. That lack of seasoning has really shown itself in this series.

The 217 combined points scored last game went way ‘over’ the 196-point total. The 202 points scored in regulation would have still jumped the number.

The ‘over’ is 3-1 this series and 5-2 in the meetings between the teams this year.

Dirk Nowitzki was again the star for the Mavericks last game with 40 points. He had 12 of their 17 points down the stretch before another two free throws in OT for their first lead of the game.

The ‘Big German’ is 32 years old and playing ultra-motivated with few title opportunities left. Veterans Jason Kidd (38), Jason Terry (33) and Shawn Marion (33) are all on the wrong side of 30 and also looking for their first championship.

Dallas finds itself one game away from its first NBA Finals since 2006. That ironically was against the Miami Heat, which could easily be the opponent again. The Mavericks blew that series after leading 2-0 and are still looking for their first title.

Dallas is an incredible 12-1-1 ATS in the playoffs, including 6-1 ATS at home. The only failure was the 106-100 home loss to Oklahoma City as 5-point favorites in Game 2. The Thunder shot a whopping 55.7 percent from the field.

The ‘over’ is 4-0 in Dallas’ last four home games, scoring a big 110.3 PPG.

Dallas just needs to feed off the home energy and let Nowitzki (33.4 PPG this series) do his thing. The bench has been a big advantage the last two games (68-37 combined), thanks mostly to Terry (33 total points). That’s likely to continue on Wednesday.

Oklahoma City has to quickly turn the page, although it won’t be easy physically or mentally. Westbrook has been held to just 34.7 percent shooting this series and sixth-man James Harden is scoring 7 PPG the last two after 17.5 PPG in the first two. Both must step up and help Durant.

Neither team is reporting any significant injuries. This series will shift back to Oklahoma City for Game 6 on Friday if necessary. ESPN is slated for the coverage again at 6:00 p.m. (PT).