The Bum's Eastern/Western Conference NBA Best Bets !

[libertypl]

BOL StarDust. And thanks for all the insight day in and out.

[Dat Boi E]

good luck!

[StarDust Bum]

Your welcome guys...am glad i can help out and contribute to the site.....any help we can use to get the edge is good right...lol

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Betting: Chicago Bulls host Heat in Game 2

The Chicago Bulls are finally getting some respect from the oddsmakers as they host the Miami Heat in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Wednesday night. TNT will broadcast from the United Center at 5:30 p.m. (PT).

The Don Best odds screen has Chicago as 2-point favorites. That’s less than the -2 ½-point spread from Game 1, but the Bulls are now series favorites (-135) up 1-0 after previously being solid underdogs (+165).

The Heat were riding high heading into Sunday’s opener. They had just dispatched a very good, but aging Celtics team in five games and many were planning their title coronation with the seemingly unstoppable trio of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh.

Chicago meanwhile needed six games to get past a mediocre Atlanta team last round. The Bulls had the NBA’s best record (62-20) in the regular season, four more wins than Miami, but were considered too much of a one-man gang with league-MVP Derrick Rose.

All those perceptions changed Sunday after Chicago’s 103-82 opening home win. Miami actually led 58-57 with 7:11 left in the third quarter before a 10-0 Chicago run led to the eventual blowout.

Chicago has won all season with defense and rebounding in addition to Rose’s brilliance. Miami was held to just 34 second-half points and the advantage on the glass was 45-33 overall. The 19-6 offensive rebound margin allowed Chicago to take 19 more shots (87-68).

Rose had 28 points for the victors, but Luol Deng added 21, including 4-of-6 from three-point land. Starting big men Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah also did their share offensively with 14 and nine points respectively.

Chicago is now 4-0 straight up and 3-0-1 against the spread against Miami this season. The other three games were all decided by four points or less.

The 185 combined points scored in Game 1 managed to go ‘over’ the 180 ½-point total. The ‘over’ is 3-0 in the Heat’s last three games and 6-1 in their last seven, although it’s the first time they’ve allowed 100 points this postseason.

Miami has a couple of days off to figure out what went wrong. James only had 15 points (5-of-15 from the floor) after averaging 28 PPG versus Boston. He seemed like he had a hangover from the Celtics series, getting very emotional after multiple playoff losses to them while with Cleveland.

Wade (7-of-17, 18 points) also had a poor game after being tremendous versus Boston (30.2 PPG). That left Bosh (30 points) to do the heavy lifting himself.

Coach Erik Spoelstra has had to answer questions about the supporting cast all season. James Jones was the fourth-leading scorer last series at just 7.2 PPG and non ‘Big 3’ players combined for just 19 points on Sunday.

It’s hard to see Miami winning on Wednesday without very good games from James, Wade and Bosh. Jones had 25 points in Game 1 versus Boston, but has 15 points in the last five games combined (four points in the Chicago opener).

The Heat are now trailing in a series for the first time this postseason. They haven’t been through the playoff wars together and the pressure is mostly on James and Bosh, who are looking for their first ring to join Wade (2005-2006 Heat team). A bow-out this round would be another blow to their reputations.

Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last six games and 3-0 ATS in its last three at home. Miami is 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four away.

Neither team is reporting any injuries. Boozer’s turf toe seems to be improving as he’s averaging 16.5 points the last four games, compared to 9.8 PPG the first eight.

The series will shift to South Beach for Game 3 on Sunday, which means the teams will have had three more days rest. TNT will have the coverage at 5:30 p.m. (PT) once again.

[StarDust Bum]

Game 2 - Heat at Bulls

May 17, 2011


The Bulls drew first blood in the Eastern Conference Finals with Sunday's Game 1 trouncing of the Heat, 103-82 as two-point favorites. Chicago broke away from Miami after being tied at the half, while earning its 42nd win in 48 tries at the United Center this season. One of the big questions heading into Wednesday's Game 2 is if LeBron James and Dwyane Wade can bounce back from a less than stellar showing in the series opener.

James and Wade combined to shoot 12-for-32 from the floor for just 33 points, 20 points below the regular season average between the two stars. Amazingly, the Heat converted all 15 free throws and shot 47% from the floor, but the Bulls' defense stifled Miami in the second half by limiting Erik Spolestra's squad to 34 points. If the Heat wants to turn things around in Game 2, they have to do a much better job on the boards.

In all four meetings this season, the Bulls have outrebounded the Heat by a substantial margin. Things didn't change in Game 1 as Chicago pulled down 12 more rebounds than Miami, including a 19-6 advantage on the offensive end. Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer combined to snatch 23 rebounds, while grabbing 12 offensive boards, as the Bulls scored an incredible 31 points off second-chance opportunities.

Derrick Rose paced the Bulls' offense with 28 points, his eighth game this postseason with at least 25 points. It's pretty apparent that Chicago has a distinct advantage at the point guard position as Mike Bibby and Mario Chalmers combined for 13 points, as the Heat have no answer for the MVP. The bench play also favored Chicago with a 28-15 edge in Game 1, including nine points and two monstrous dunks by former USC standout Taj Gibson.

The Bulls' home prowess is pretty obvious, but Tom Thibodeau's club took care of business at the United Center off a home victory. Chicago owns a sterling 19-1 SU and 13-7 ATS mark in the role of home 'chalk' coming off a home win, while six of those non-covers came as double-digit favorites. Since the start of the 2010 playoffs, home favorites holding a 1-0 heading into Game 2 have compiled a 15-4 SU and 11-8 ATS record. This postseason, these teams are 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS with the two non-covers coming in the first round by the Bulls (vs. Pacers) and Celtics (vs. Knicks).

HOME FAVORITES LEADING SERIES 1-0 SINCE 2010
ROUND/YR RESULT LINE ATS RESULT
QTR/10 CLE 112, CHI 102 -10.5 L
QTR/10 ATL 96, MIL 86 -7.5 W
QTR/10 ORL 92, CHA 77 -9 W
QTR/10 LAL 95, OKC 92 -6 L
QTR/10 BOS 106, MIA 77 -1 W
QTR/10 UTA 114, DEN 111 -6.5 L
QTR/10 SA 102, DAL 88 -3.5 L
SEMI/10 BOS 104, CLE 86 -6 L
SEMI/10 LAL 111, UTA 103 -6 W
SEMI/10 PHX 110, SA 102 -3 W
SEMI/10 ORL 112, ATL 98 -9.5 W
CONF/10 LAL 124, PHX 112 -7 W
NBAF/10 BOS 103, LAL 94 -6 L
QTR/11 MIA 94, PHI 73 -9 W
QTR/11 CHI 96, IND 90 -11 L
QTR/11 DAL 101, POR 89 -6 W
QTR/11 BOS 96, NY 93 -6.5 L
QTR/11 OKC 106, DEN 89 -6 W
SEMI/11 MIA 106, BOS 96 -5 W
*HOME TEAMS IN BOLD



The Heat has struggled in the role of a road underdog off a loss by going 0-4 SU/ATS this season. However, two of those defeats came at Denver and Chicago with James out of the lineup due to an ankle injury. On the flip side, Miami is 4-2 SU/ATS on the highway off a loss, while cashing the 'over' five times.

From the totals perspective, Miami is on a serious role for 'over' players by hitting in six of the last seven games. Prior to the second half meltdown against Chicago, the Heat held both the Sixers and Celtics to below 100 points in the first 10 games of the playoffs. The Heat is a perfect 5-0 to the 'over' in games listed with the total of 181 ½ or below, as the Game 2 total is set at 181 ½ in most spots.

There hasn't been much of a discrepancy in the totals department for the Bulls in the playoffs as they have split the 12 games. The slight edge goes to the 'over' at home by hitting in four of seven games, while the 'over' is 4-2 following a Bulls SU/ATS victory.

The Bulls are listed as two-point favorites for Wednesday's Game 2, as the game tips off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen nationally on TNT.

[StarDust Bum]

Bulls look to go up 2-0 in series vs. Heat

MIAMI HEAT

at CHICAGO BULLS


NBA Playoffs - Eastern Conference Finals
Game 2 – Chicago leads series 1-0
Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -2, Total: 181.5

After 48 minutes of being out-hustled, outworked, out-rebounded, out-defended, and oh yes, out-posterized (Taj Gibson dunk over Dwyane Wade), the Miami Heat will take the court Wednesday night at the United Center desperate to match the Bulls’ intensity level, as well as their defensive venom. While getting a win to even the series will be paramount, that can only start with the Heat playing better basketball, and realizing that the Bulls are light years ahead of previous opponents Philadelphia and Boston when it comes to athleticism and displaying championship-level defense. “We've been able to bounce back this year no matter if it's been the regular season or the postseason," LeBron James said. "Learn from mistakes in the previous game and then move on. We've done that. We're looking forward to the challenge."

Meeting that challenge could be much less about X’s and O’s and much more about hustle and effort, areas where the Heat were lacking Sunday night in Game 1. Chicago was +16 in rebounding, held a 19 to 6 edge on the offensive boards, generated 11 steals to the Heat’s seven thefts, and committed seven fewer turnovers than Miami. Chicago’s bench outscored Miami’s reserves 28-15. Not surprisingly, the Bulls easily turned the extra possessions in extra points, as they outscored Eric Spoelstra’s team 31-8 on second chance points. "It's not about bigger bodies, it's about wanting the ball," Chris Bosh, who had a game-high 30 points, said. "Collectively, as a team, we have to do good job of keeping bodies on those bigs. Containing the screen and roll with D-Rose and just going our job like we know we are capable of. We've done it all season, we just have to capitalize."

In terms of strategy, Chicago’s defense forced James into a 15-point night on 5-for-15 shooting, as Luol Deng, Taj Gibson and Joakim Noah all chipped in to contain James, who was coming off of consecutive 33 and 35-point efforts in the last two games of the Celtics series. Dwyane Wade didn’t fare much better as he scored 18 points on 7-for-17 shooting, far below the 30.2 PPG he averaged against the Celtics. In terms of plus/minus ratings while on the court, James was a minus-14 and Wade was minus-22.

As for the Bulls offensively, each player fulfilled his role from top to bottom. Derrick Rose led his team with 28 points (10-22 FG) and six assists. Deng provided perimeter support by hitting on 4-of-6 from beyond the arc and finishing with 21 points. Noah led the hustle patrol with 14 boards (eight offensive), four assists, two steals and two blocks -- a stat line so complete that it almost makes his nine points seem insignificant. Carlos Boozer was the third Bull to finish the game in double figures with 14 points. He also had nine boards and had plenty of rest, logging just 26 minutes. Despite the effort, the Bulls are not looking back on their Game 1 laurels, but rather forward on the need to keep the pressure on Miami by improving its performance from game to game. "I think we've got to play better," said Deng, "I really do. We played really well. If you look at the final score, we won by a lot, but it really wasn't that kind of game. It really wasn't. It was tied at the half. They had the lead at some point in the third quarter. So there's a lot of things we've got to get better at."

To win Game 2, the Heat will in all likelihood have to win a close game on the road, something they have not been able to do against Chicago this season, but something they have been able to do in the playoffs, as they took a six-point win at Philadelphia in Game 3 of that series, and an overtime win at Boston in Game 4 of last series. Chicago has the best home record SU (42-6, 88%) and second-best ATS home mark (28-19, 60%) in the NBA, but Miami has the second-best SU road record (30-16, 65%) and a solid 26-19 ATS (58%) mark away from home. I believe that the pick here is for the Heat to bounce back strongly behind Wade and James to even a series that I feel is a good candidate to go the distance. The following FoxSheets trends support the Miami pick.

Play On - Road teams (MIAMI) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. (89-49 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.5%, +35.1 units. Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Favorites (CHICAGO) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record. (51-23 since 1996.) (68.9%, +25.7 units. Rating = 2*).

The Under is 10-4 in the past 14 meetings between these teams, but the Over is 6-1 in the past seven Heat games this postseason. Assuming James and Wade find their offensive games, I like the Over to occur for Wednesday’s Game 2. This belief is supported by this highly-rated FoxSheets trend.

Play Over - Any team (MIAMI) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, extremely well-rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days. (69-32 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.3%, +33.8 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday, May 18

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 8:30 PM ET Chicago -2.5 500

Chicago - Under 181.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Mavericks, Thunder continue NBA odds series

Fans of the Dallas Mavericks were worried about their long layoff before Game 1 against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Tuesday night.

We can cross that one off the list.

The Mavericks won fairly handily 121-112 as 6-point home favorites. The Don Best odds screen already has them as 5 ½-point ‘chalk’ for Thursday’s Game 2 with 199 ½-points for the total. ESPN will broadcast at 6:00 p.m. (PT) from American Airlines Center.

Dallas had eight days rest heading into Tuesday and looked lethargic early in the second quarter, down 32-23. However, the Mavs had a seven-point lead by halftime (55-48) and led by as much as 16 before holding off a late run.

One player who was never lethargic was Dirk Nowitzki. He hit 12-of-15 shots (80 percent), ending up with 48 points. He was a mind-boggling 24-of-24 from the line, with Oklahoma City actually having more total free throw attempts (43-36).

Nowitzki got offensive help from reserve guards Jason Terry (24 points) and Jose Juan Barea (21 points). The rest of the team combined for just 28 points, but that was plenty of offense overall.

The 233 combined points scored blew past the 194 ½-point total. The ‘over’ is 3-0 in Dallas’ last three games and 5-1 in the last six, although all the other totals were lower in the 180s. The team is scoring 99.1 PPG this postseason and allowing 90.4 PPG.

The Mavericks are 9-2 straight up and 10-0-1 against the spread this postseason (6-0 SU and ATS at home). They’ve won seven straight games after winning the last two versus Portland and then sweeping the Lakers in a big upset.

Dallas is 3-1 SU and ATS against Oklahoma City this year. The only loss (99-95) was in Big D back in January with Nowitzki out with an injury. The ‘over’ is 3-1 in those meetings.

The Thunder shouldn’t be too discouraged as a split in Dallas would meet their goal. They shot 47.2 percent from the floor last game and Nowitzki and Dallas (53.4 percent overall) can’t be counted on to be that hot again. Scott Brooks’ team also showed resilience in fighting back from the large deficit.

The Thunder had just one day rest before opening this series. They needed a full seven games to dispatch a pesky Memphis team last round. Oklahoma City has a lot of young legs, so fatigue is not a good excuse for the Dallas loss.

Kevin Durant scored 40 points in the opener and provides a huge matchup problem for Dallas, just as Nowitzki does for the Thunder. Durant was 10-of-18 from the floor, but also 18-of-19 from the charity stripe.

Point guard Russell Westbrook is the other big gun, averaging 23.6 PPG in the playoffs to go with Durant’s 29.8 PPG. James Harden is next at 12.4 PPG. Westbrook was just 3-of-15 (20 percent) from the field last game, although he did have 20 points after going 14-of-18 from the line.

Westbrook is averaging 15.8 PPG in the four games against Dallas this season, but shooting just 28.8 percent from the field. There are not enough other scorers to compensate when he shoots so poorly, so a big game on Thursday is vital.

The Thunder are trailing for the third time in these playoffs. They won both Games 2 and 4 to tie up the Memphis series, the latter coming on the road in triple OT (133-123). They’ll take a win any way they can get it on Thursday.

Oklahoma City is 2-4 SU and 2-3-1 ATS on the road in the playoffs overall.

Dallas’ Caron Butler (knee) is the only significant injury being reported. There was talk about him returning for this series, but that’s very unlikely now.

The scene will shift to Oklahoma for Game 3 on Saturday and this series will play twice before Miami and Chicago play their third game on Sunday.

[StarDust Bum]

Game 2, OKC at Dallas

May 18, 2011


The Western Conference finals will continue Thursday night in Dallas where the Mavericks will play host to Oklahoma City in Game 2 at American Airlines Arena.

Dallas (66-27 straight up, 54-36-3 against the spread) captured a 121-112 victory as a six-point home favorite in Tuesday’s Game 1. Dirk Nowitzki had a game for the ages, scoring 48 points by making 12-of-15 shots from the field and all 24 of his attempts from the charity stripe. He also added six rebounds, four assists and four blocked shots.

The Mavs’ bench featured a pair of 20-plus scorers in Jason Terry and J.J. Barea, who finished with 24 and 21 points, respectively.

In the losing effort, Kevin Durant scored a team-high 40 points for the Thunder. The All-Star forward hit 10-of-18 from the field and 18-of-19 at the free-throw line. Durant also had eight rebounds, five assists and a pair of blocked shots. However, he didn’t get much help from his co-star, Russell Westbrook.

Westbrook was an abysmal 3-of-15 from the field with more turnovers (four) than assists (three). The UCLA product did score 20 points thanks to 14-of-18 shooting at the FT line. Serge Ibaka scored 17 points and James Harden was also in double figures with 12 points.

The 233 combined points soared ‘over’ the 194 ½-point total. Folks, that’s what you call an easy winner.

For Game 2, most betting shops are listing Dallas as a 5 ½-point favorite with a total of 199 ½. Obviously, that represents a five-point adjustment in the total, but will that be enough to attract gamblers to the ‘under?’

VI’s Chris David offered this take, “The tweaking of the totals during this year’s postseason has been out of control, but it provides so much value to the player. The opening number in the first game came out at 191 ½ and closed at 195. We saw 233 combined points and now the total for Game 2 is as high as 200. That’s close to a nine-point swing and it’s hard to imagine both teams getting 71 points from the free throw line and 48 from 3-point land again.

“Keep in mind that Oklahoma City has had trouble scoring on the road at times, plus Dallas’ defense is underrated. The Thunder was the first team to bust triple digits on the Mavericks during the playoffs and I’m expecting that again will be tough.

David, an avid totals player, is clearly bullish on the ‘under.’

Oklahoma City (63-32 SU, 49-44-2 ATS) fell behind with a Game 1 loss to Memphis in the West semifinals, so this isn’t uncharted territory for Scott Brooks’ team. In fact, the Thunder lost homecourt advantage with the loss to the Grizzlies but recovered nonetheless.

OKC will have to get a better effort from Westbrook – at it will. Durant said as much in the postgame presser, “Russell Westbrook won’t go 3-for-15 again and you can quote me on that.”

The main adjustment making Brooks lose sleep is how to defend Nowitzki, but what can you do when the perennial All-Star shoots like that? Ibaka is one of the longest defenders in the league and he was all over Dirk on many of his made shots.

What you can do is send doubles harder and more frequently, but we all know that Nowitzki is a willing passer. And with the way Terry and Barea are playing, you’re just picking your poison. In other words, OKC doesn’t have much of a shot if Nowitzki, Terry and Barea keep shooting the way they did in Game 1.

But that won’t be an easy task and as mentioned, the Thunder is going to get much better production out of Westbrook.

OKC owns a 25-21-1 spread record on the road this season, while Dallas is 25-20-2 ATS at home.

The ‘over’ is 53-39-1 overall for the Mavs, 26-20-1 in their home outings. Meanwhile, OKC has seen the ‘over’ go 51-43-1 overall, but we should not the ‘under’ is 24-22-2 in its road assignments.

Tip-off for Game 2 is scheduled for 9:05 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Thursday, May 19

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Oklahoma City - 9:00 PM ET Dallas -5.5 500

Dallas - Over 199.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Results - Conf. Finals

May 20, 2011


Third Round Results


Favorites are 2-2 straight up
Favorites are 2-2 against the spread
The 'over' is 3-1
Home teams are 2-2

Visitor Home Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Sunday, May 1
Miami Chicago (-2) 103-82 FAVORITE OVER 181

Tuesday, May 17
Oklahoma City Dallas (-6) 121-112 FAVORITE OVER 194.5

Wednesday, May 18
Miami (+2.5) Chicago 85-75 UNDERDOG UNDER 181

Thursday, May 19
Oklahoma City (+5) Dallas 106-100 UNDERDOG OVER 200

Saturday, May 21
Dallas Oklahoma City

Sunday, May 22
Chicago Miami

Monday, May 23
Dallas Oklahoma City

Tuesday, May 24
Chicago Miami

Wednesday, May 25
Oklahoma City Dallas

Thursday, May 26
Miami Chicago

Friday, May 27
Dallas Oklahoma City

Saturday, May 28
Chicago Miami

Sunday, May 29
Oklahoma City Dallas

Monday, May 30
Miami Chicago




Winners in BOLD

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Betting: Thunder and Mavericks tied heading to OKC

Thunder reserves outscored the Dallas bench 53-22 in Game 2.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are finding new ways to win as they host the Dallas Mavericks in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals on Saturday night. The series is tied 1-1 as it shifts locations.

The Don Best odds screen has the Thunder as 3-point favorites with a total of 201 points. ESPN will broadcast at 6:00 p.m. (PT) from Oklahoma City Arena.

The Thunder are riding high after a 106-100 win at Dallas in Game 2 on Thursday night. Superstar Kevin Durant led the way per usual with 24 points, but it was the reserves that were the main story.

The backups outscored their Dallas counterparts 50-29 after a 53-22 disadvantage in the Game 1 loss (121-112). Sixth-man James Harden was the big gun with 23 points. More shockingly, Oklahoma City coach Scott Brooks went with four reserves along with Durant for almost the entire fourth quarter.

Starting point guard Russell Westbrook was the big omission down the stretch. He had decent stats (7-of-15 shooting, 18 points), but his plus/minus rating (-12) was terrible compared to backup Eric Maynor (+18).

Westbrook was not happy about his benching and team chemistry could be at stake if Brooks makes the same move again. However, Westbrook was just 3-of-15 from the floor in the opener and is shooting just 32.4 percent in five games versus Dallas this season.

The 206 combined points scored last game went ‘over’ the 199 ½-point total. The Thunders’ sharp 55.7 percent shooting really helped the cause. The ‘over’ is 2-0 this series and 4-1 in the meetings between the teams this year.

Oklahoma City was a five-point underdog last game. It is now 2-3 SU and ATS against the Mavs this season, winning and ‘covering’ for the first time with Dirk Nowitzki healthy and in the lineup.

Nowitzki had a Larry Bird-like performance in Game 1, scoring 48 points on 12-of-15 from the field and 24-of-24 from the line. He played very well again in Game 2 with 29 points, but didn’t get enough help with center Tyson Chandler next on the list with 15.

Reserve guards Jason Terry and Jose Juan Barea combined for 45 points in Game 1, but saw that total slip to 19 on Thursday. Nowitzki shot 10-of-17 last game (58.8 percent), but the rest of the squad was 25-of-63 (39.7 percent).

Terry is Dallas’ second-leading scorer (17.9 PPG) in the playoffs behind Nowitzki (28.5 PPG). No other player is in double-digits. Caron Butler (knee injury) would have been a great addition, but his return is not close.

Coach Rick Carlisle relied on defense in the first two rounds, allowing 88.2 PPG, but is surrendering 109 PPG this series. The 55.7 percent shooting last game was the highest allowed by Dallas since January. Shoring up that end of the court is the first priority on Saturday.

The Mavericks suffered their first ATS failure after starting the playoffs 10-0-1 against the spread. Their seven-game winning streak was also snapped.

Dallas now heads back on the road where it’s 3-2 SU and 4-0-1 ATS this postseason. It dropped Games 3 and 4 in Portland, but has won the last three, including tough ones at the Lakers’ Staples Center.

Oklahoma City is 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS at home in the playoffs. The one loss was Game 1 of the Memphis series last round. It won the next three home games over the Grizzlies (3-0 ATS), including 105-90 in the crucial Game 7.

The teams will remain in Oklahoma for Game 4 on Monday before going back to Big D on Wednesday. ESPN will broadcast both contests with TNT having the Miami vs. Chicago series

[StarDust Bum]

Mavs-Thunder series shifts to OKC for Game 3


DALLAS MAVERICKS

at OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER


NBA Playoffs – Western Conference Finals
Game 3 – Series tied 1-1
Tip-off: Saturday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma City -3 Total: 202

The Mavericks and Thunder travel to Oklahoma City for Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals on Saturday after splitting the first two games of the series at Dallas. After losing Game 1, the Thunder responded with a six-point win on Thursday, and now are looking to keep home-court advantage after taking it from Dallas in Game 2.

The Mavericks bench scoring has been a big part of the reason they are three wins from the NBA Finals. Their bench led the NBA in scoring during the regular season, each of the first two rounds of the NBA playoffs, and outscored the Thunder 53-22 in Game 1. However, Game 2 was a different story, as their bench was outscored 50-29. After shooting 53.0 percent and scoring 105 points in their half-court offense in Game 1, the Mavs were held to just 43.4 shooting and scored 93 points in Game 2. Dirk Nowitzki scored 29 points, 16 of which came in the fourth quarter, but was held to just 14 post-up points, compared to the 28 post-up points he scored in Game 1. He also missed a free throw, ending his streak of 39 straight FT made.

Oklahoama City head coach Scott Brooks had a difficult decision to make in the fourth quarter of Game 2, but chose to stick with his bench, which had built a lead and did not relinquish it. Russell Westbrook did not see a minute of playing time in the quarter, as Daequan Cook, Eric Maynor, Nick Collison and James Harden teamed with Kevin Durant to win Game 2. Harden was spectacular, becoming just the fourth player in the last 15 years to score at least 23 points and grab at least seven rebounds off the bench in a playoff road win. The Thunder also became the first team in six years to get at least 50 points from their substitutes in a road playoff game.

The Thunder have to feel good that they won Game 2 without getting a great performance out of either Durant (24 points, 3 rebounds) or Westbrook (18 points, 4 assists, 4 turnovers). If they continue to get solid play from their bench, they will be a tough team for the Mavericks to beat. However, Dallas has had the better bench over the length of the season, and I like the Mavericks subs to outplay the Thunder subs the rest of the series. I’m taking Dallas to win Game 3.

The FoxSheets show another highly-rated trend favoring the Mavs:

Play On - Road teams (DALLAS) - average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games. (60-23 since 1996.) (72.3%, +34.7 units. Rating = 3*).

DALLAS is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 this season. The average score was DALLAS 105.0, OPPONENT 96.8 - (Rating = 3*).

Although the Mavs have played four straight and six of seven games Over the total, this highly-rated FoxSheets trend thinks the defenses will improve and the Under will occur on Saturday.

Play Under - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DALLAS) - revenging a home loss vs. opponent, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. (70-32 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.6%, +34.8 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Heat look to take series lead in Sunday's Game 3


CHICAGO BULLS

at MIAMI HEAT


NBA Playoffs – Eastern Conference Finals
Game 3 – Series tied 1-1
Tip-off: Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -5, Total: 178.5

After closing Game 2 on a 12-2 run, the Miami Heat tied the Eastern Conference Finals at one game apiece with an 85-75 win. The two teams now head to Miami for Game 3 on Sunday night.

Chicago, who was 4-0 against Miami this season before Wednesday’s loss, was outrebounded by the Heat for the first time in their five meetings this season in Game 2. After grabbing 16 more boards and scoring 23 second-chance points in Game 1, the Bulls were outrebounded by four and scored just six second-chance points in Game 2. A big part of the Bulls success in their Game 1 victory was their ability to hit jump shots in their half-court offense, averaging 1.12 points per shot and shooting 44.2 percent. Miami was much better at defending the Bulls in Game 2, as Chicago averaged just 0.60 PPS and shot 28.6 percent in the half-court offense. The Bulls shot 34% overall from the field, including 3-of-20 from three-point land, and converted just 16-of-26 free throws (62%). Derrick Rose was held to just 7-of-23 FG (30%) after going 10-for-22 (46%) in Game 1.

Dwyane Wade and LeBron James combined for 53 points and shot 54 percent in Game 2, after scoring just 33 points and shooting 38 percent in Game 1. Miami was helped with the production of Udonis Haslem, scoring 13 points and grabbing five rebounds in Game 2, his first points or rebounds in a game since Nov. 22, 2010. Haslem, who had only logged seven playoff minutes before Wednesday because of a bad foot, was a big part of the Heat outscoring the Bulls 50-34 in the paint in Game 2.

The Heat have waited for this time of the season since James first announced he was joining Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh (+22 rating in Game 2) on South Beach last July. I like Miami to take control of this series and win Game 3.

The FoxSheets gives two more reasons to fade the Bulls in Game 3:

Play Against - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHICAGO) - after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). (69-33 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.6%, +32.7 units. Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Road teams (CHICAGO) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days against opponent extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days. (72-38 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.5%, +30.2 units. Rating = 2*).

This game doesn’t figure to be as low-scoring as Game 2, but the FoxSheets provides several trend expecting the Under to occur again on Sunday, including this highly-rated one:

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 170 and 179.5 points (CHICAGO, MIAMI) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). (48-18 since 1996.) (72.7%, +28.2 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Odds: Miami Heat, Chicago Bulls Game 3

The Heat held the Bulls to just 10 points in the fourth quarter of Game 2.
The Eastern Conference Finals return to South Beach Sunday for the first time since the 2006 playoffs, as Game 3 between the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat is set to tip off at 5:30 p.m. (PT) on TNT.

Miami opened as a 5-point favorite for the contest. The Don Best odds screen showed 179 for Sunday's total.

Miami came away with an incredibly important split by recording an impressive 85-75 road win Wednesday night in Game 2 at Chicago and now heads home possessing homecourt advantage.

“It was a big game,” said Heat forward LeBron James. “We felt like it was a must-win for us going back home.”

James led Miami with a game-high 29 points, game-high 10 rebounds and a team-high five assists. He has scored in double-figures in all 83 postseason games he has appeared in.

The Heat’s defense was the real star of the show after allowing 103 points in Game 1, limiting the Bulls to 10 fourth-quarter points, while James closed the contest by connecting on four clutch field goals down the stretch.

“What I’ll take from this is how physical it was and how small a margin of error there is on both sides,” said Miami coach Erik Spoelstra. “It was a great collective effort of endurance. We are able to play more to our identity.”

Spoelstra’s unit has registered a 36-11 home record this season, including the playoffs, but has been a losing proposition for bettors to back with a 19-27-1 ATS mark. Miami has registered a 3-2 ATS mark at home through its first two playoff series and is likely to receive a huge emotional lift with forward Udonis Haslem playing in front of the AmericanAirlines Arena faithful.

Haslem provided a spark with 13 points and five rebounds Wednesday night, helping the squad win the battle of the boards by a 45-41 margin after getting pounded 45-33 on the glass in the opener.

Chicago must improve on the offensive end if it hopes to bounce back from its first loss of the series, going 3-of-20 from 3-point range and 16-of-26 at the foul line.

“We played with a low-energy offense,” said Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau.

It was a surprising result due to the squad scoring 55 points in the second half to close out Sunday’s win. The Bulls were led by MVP point guard Derrick Rose with 21 points, but only two of those came in the fourth quarter, as he went 0-for-4 from the field and 2-for-4 from the charity stripe.

“They closed down the lane,” Rose commented. “I missed a lot of layups, shots that I normally hit. They just weren’t falling tonight.”

The ending result was a franchise playoff low for points in a quarter.

Chicago hasn’t lost back-to-back contests during the playoffs this season, capturing wins in all three games following a loss. In those particular contests, the Bulls have won impressively by a double-digit margin. The top-seed in the Eastern Conference is also a dangerous 12-4 ATS as an underdog this year.

Total players may anticipate a rise in scoring with the series moving to Miami, as the ‘over’ is 10-2 in the Bulls last 12 playoff games as an underdog, while the Heat have gone above the number in their last five playoff games as a favorite.