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**StarDust Bum** · 05-14-2011, 11:46 PM

NBA Betting: Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls Game 1

A true marquee, superstar-filled Eastern Conference Finals matchup is just around the corner. The top two seeds in the East, the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat, will battle each other in a best-of-7 series for the right to play for an NBA title.

The Heat have gained a lot of momentum in these playoffs silencing many of their critics, at least for now. Even though Miami is the lower seed, the line for the whole series on the Don Best odds screen sees the Heat -195 while Chicago is +165. That is big plus money for a team that owns the best record in the NBA.

Game 1 will be broadcast by TNT on Sunday at 5:00 p.m. (PT). Chicago is a 2-point favorite in the first game and the total is posted at 181.

The series to decide the East's best will feature the league’s MVP Derrick Rose, two All-NBA First Team members in Rose and LeBron James, and one player who arguably should have been (Dwyane Wade over Kobe Bryant).

These teams met three times before in the regular season and the Heat fell to the Bulls every time. Chicago doubled up Miami in second chance points per game (18.3 to 9.0) and outrebounded them by an average of 10 in that series.

This is the playoffs, however, and not the regular season. The Heat were 1-3 against the Boston Celtics before beating them in five games during the Conference Semifinals.

Wade and James were said to play too much alike, but right now that doesn’t appear to be a problem. In the playoffs, their points and assists per game are almost exactly the same. Wade is averaging 26.2 and 5.0 while James is a tenth off at 26.1 and 4.9.

Meanwhile, Rose is in a battle with Kevin Durant for top scorer in the playoffs. He’s averaging 28.8 while also dishing 8.2 assists per postseason contest. The problem for him, and the Bulls for that matter, is that he is taking over 23 shots to score that much. To further emphasize the problem, he is only making 9.7 of those attempts per game.

These squads were two of the best defensive teams in the league during the regular season and that has continued in the 2011 NBA Playoffs. Chicago has held their opponents to 87.73 PPG and Miami right behind at 88.80. The rebounding is close, too. The Bulls average 44.16 each contest and the Heat are grabbing 42.15.

The bottom line is that the Miami team Chicago saw throughout the year is not the same one they will see in the playoffs.

The Bulls will need Joakim Noah and company to play great help-defense against Wade, James and the man lost in all of this, Chris Bosh. These three have proven so far that they do not need great bench play to win in playoffs.

The MVP, on the other hand, needs someone to step up and be Chicago’s number two option. Whether it is Carlos Boozer or Luol Deng, someone needs to give Rose a break. Though similar to James’ comments about his first round opponents being “breakfast” (which makes the Bulls dinner), Rose will eat up Miami’s point guards for breakfast, lunch, dinner, dessert, brunch, etc. and then come back for seconds.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-14-2011, 11:46 PM

Heat-Bulls open Eastern Finals Sunday in Chicago

MIAMI HEAT

at CHICAGO BULLS

NBA Playoffs - Eastern Conference Finals
Game 1
Tip-off: Sunday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -1.5, Total: 182.5

The top two teams in the Eastern Conference, Chicago and Miami, meet Sunday at United Center to begin a best-of-seven series to determine who will represent the conference in the NBA Finals. The Bulls are 3-0 versus the Heat this season, but only won by a combined eight points in the three meetings.

Both teams have remarkably similar numbers in the 2011 playoffs. Miami is scoring 94.7 PPG on 43.8% FG, while Chicago has 94.9 PPG on 43.7% FG. Defensively, the Heat are allowing 88.8 PPG on 43.3% FG while the Bulls have been slightly better, giving up just 87.7 PPG on 42.7% FG. Chicago is clearly the better rebounding team, though, with a +7.8 RPG margin in the playoffs (+5.5 RPG for Miami) and a +22 rebounding margin in the three meetings with Miami this season.

The Heat’s All-Star trio has not disappointed in the 2011 playoffs. LeBron James has averaged 26.1 PPG (28.0 vs. Boston), 9.4 RPG and 4.9 APG, while Dwyane Wade has 26.2 PPG (30.2 vs. Boston), 7.6 RPG and 5.0 APG, and Chris Bosh has 16.3 PPG and 9.6 RPG. James and Wade also had great offensive success against Chicago this season, combining for 56.5 PPG, 15.0 RPG and 9.2 APG. James shot 56.4% FG against Chicago, while Wade made 44.4% (4-for-9) of his three-point attempts. Miami made 13-of-28 three-pointers in its first meeting with Chicago, but only went 5-of-21 in the final two games. The Heat defended the perimeter well versus the Bulls, holding them to just 14-of-54 (26%) shooting from downtown.

Chicago continues to be led by league MVP Derrick Rose, who has scored 28.8 PPG in these playoffs. He also has 8.2 APG in the postseason, including 32 assists and just eight turnovers in the past three games. Rose was also great against Miami this year with 29.0 PPG and 6.3 APG in the three meetings. Luol Deng and Carlos Boozer both shot an identical 19-of-41 (46.3%) versus the Heat this season, as Deng averaged 16.7 PPG, 6.0 RPG and 4.0 APG, while Boozer had 13.3 PPG and 9.7 RPG. The duo has been a bit inconsistent in the playoffs, with Boozer’s 11.8 PPG and 9.5 RPG and Deng’s 16.7 PPG and 6.5 RPG. But Boozer is coming off a great Game 6 clincher in Atlanta where he scored 23 points (10-16 FG) with 10 rebounds and five assists. Joakim Noah only has 19 points in his past four games, but is still averaging nearly a double-double in the playoffs (9.9 PPG, 10.4 RPG).

These teams are very evenly matched as Chicago now has 70 wins and Miami has 66. The Heat are 14-3 since April began, including 8-2 SU (6-4 ATS) in the playoffs, while the Bulls are 16-3 since April, including 8-3 SU (6-5 ATS) in the postseason. Miami has been a great road team this year (30-15 SU, 26-18 ATS) and Chicago has the best home record SU (41-6) and second-best ATS home mark (27-19).

I expect this game and series to be close throughout, but since the Bulls play superior defense, are a better rebounding team and are playing at home, I’m taking Chicago to post the victory on Sunday. Two more FoxSheets trends supporting the Bulls to win and cover in Game 1 are :

CHICAGO is 26-13 ATS (66.7%, +11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was CHICAGO 95.6, OPPONENT 90.9 - (Rating = 2*).

CHICAGO is 42-22 ATS (65.6%, +17.8 Units) after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. The average score was CHICAGO 97.9, OPPONENT 88.9 - (Rating = 2*).

The Under is 10-3 in the past 13 meetings between these teams, and these two FoxSheets trends also side with the Under for Sunday’s Game 1.

Play Under - Any team (CHICAGO) – well-rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, a top-level team (>= 75%) playing a good team (60% to 75%). (66-35 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.3%, +27.5 units. Rating = 2*).

Play Under - Any team (MIAMI) – well-rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. (655-485 over the last 5 seasons.) (57.5%, +121.5 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-15-2011, 12:17 AM

3rd Round Betting Angles

May 14, 2011

One month into the NBA Playoffs and we’re down to the Conference Finals. In just two weeks the season will conclude with the Championship Finals as the 2010-11 season winds its way to the finish line.

Let’s take a peek and see what we can expect from teams in the Third Round of the playoffs. Remember, all results are ATS (Against The Spread) in Third Round action over the past 20 years, unless stated otherwise. Enjoy…

DOWN BUT NOT OUT

You can blow a good team out once. Twice is not as likely. As we’ve learned, teams that fail miserably tend to bounce back rather than stay down. In fact, teams off a point-spread loss of more than 10 points are a very profitable 39-24-1 ATS in 3rd round playoff action.

Bring them in off a SU upset loss as a favorite and they improve to 22-12-1 ATS. Let these upset losers dress up as dogs off a point-spread loss of more than 10 points and they become a 13-4-1 ATS winning proposition.

BETTER TEAMS MAKE NICE DOGS

Taking points with better teams will seldom put you in harm’s way.

Teams with a better win percentage takings points are 49-39-1 ATS on the blind. When playing after a loss, they are 21-13-1 ATS in this round. Bring them in off a loss of 4 or more points and they improve to 20-8-1 ATS.

Best of all, when taking 4 or more points with a better team off a loss of 4 or more points you have a 13-2-1 ATS winning edge.

RUNNING ON EMPTY

You can hold a good team down, but not for long.

Teams that reach the 3rd round of the playoffs have established themselves as being better than most. When good teams come up with sub par scoring efforts they tend to bounce back in followup games.

That’s confirmed by the fact the road teams in Round Three who scored 78 or fewer points in their previous game are a wallet stretching 15-5-1 ATS. Better yet, if the Over/Under total in this round is less than 186 points they improve to 13-2 against the number.

There you have it. Three rock-solid betting theories you can hang your hat on throughout the 3rd round of this year’s NBA playoffs.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-15-2011, 12:19 AM

NBA Conference Finals

May 14, 2011 8:34AM ET

There hasn't been an NBA playoff race like this in a long time. Upsets, surprise teams advancing, and longtime powerhouses (Lakers, Celtics and Spurs) long gone. A new era for the NBA? It sure looks like it, with all the impressive performances by so many young players.

It sets up a fascinating final run of finesse teams versus physical. The Dallas Mavericks are the only veteran team still standing, after their four-game blitz of the Lakers. Despite the fact that it was a stunner, and the Mavericks impressed in so many facets of the game (defense, comeback ability on the road, stellar three-point shooting), it wasn't quite the one-sided blowout that it may first appear.

The average betting public was blown away by what the Mavericks accomplished and they certainly were the buzz for a full week. And rightfully so. But a handicapper takes a different approach to analyzing games and odds. For instance, how dominant were the Mavericks, really?

In Game 1 at LA, the Lakers led by 16 in the second half and were really in command all the way until a late collapse at the end. Then, in game 3 at Dallas, the Lakers again led almost all the way until a collapse with four minutes remaining. Finally, in Game 4, the Lakers didn't even show up. But it's not a stretch to say that the Lakers should have been ahead 2-games-to-1 and even if they showed up and lost Game 4, they still would have had 2 of the final 3 games at home. The Lakers probably would have won the series if they had held on to win Games 1 and 3, so as impressive as the Mavericks' sweep was, it's not a stretch to imply that they are fortunate to be here.

That's not to denigrate the Mavs, but from a handicapping point of view, a break here or there and the Lakers would still be playing - and be the favorites in the West. Dallas got here with a terrific defense, 10th in the NBA in points allowed, a veteran team and a big frontcourt with 7-foot Dirk Nowitzki and 7-foot-1 Tyson Chandler. Throw in sixth man extraordinaire Jason Terry, who was simply sensational in the LA series, and this is a formidable team. They are likely to try to slow the pace down and pound the ball inside in the Western Conference Finals against their younger, more athletic opponent (whether it be Memphis or OKC). The Mavericks are the only experienced team left, so is that a big plus? Or will youth be served. Championship experience certainly didn’t help the Lakers, Celtics and Spurs!

In the East, it's a battle of two teams that may be young, but the Bulls and Heat got here with DE-FENSE, and lots of it. For Miami, the challenge will be not to get beat on the boards by a tall, hard-working, physical Chicago frontcourt and to find a way to deal with the league's MVP, Derrick Rose. The Bulls also have legs younger than Boston's, including energizer Joakim Noah, who disrupts opposing offenses with arms so long they can stretch from here to Chicago.

Chicago won all three meetings between the teams, by scores of 99-96 (LeBron James missed that game with an ankle injury), 93-89 and 87-86 in the one game played in Miami. Rose averaged 29 points against Miami and is averaging 28.8 points during the playoffs. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said Mike Bibby likely will remain Miami's starting point guard even though he is considered a subpar defender. James revealed that Bibby will start out defending Rose in Games 1 and 2, but Mario Chalmers, Dwyane Wade and James will all take turns on him. Now, THAT will be a fun match-up to watch!

The Heat is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 road games, but 9-21 ATS in its last 30 games playing on 3 or more days' of rest, including the last one, Game 3 at Boston. And then there's on-again, off-again Chris Bosh, the weak link of Miami's Big 3. Bosh shot 34 percent against the Bulls (17 for 50), due largely to a 1-for-18 debacle against Noah and Chicago in the Feb.?24 loss. Noah's averages were modest in two games against the Heat (9.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.0 blocks). James averaged 27.5 points in the two games he played against Chicago, shooting 56.4 percent. Wade averaged 29 points and shot 46.9 percent in three games. Keith Bogans will defend Wade at the outset, with Deng defending James.

The Bulls are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. One thing that's not in doubt is that elbows will be flying in what will be a physical series. Coach Spoelstra said, "Defensively, we're going to go after them. We're an aggressive, physical team. This will be a series of endurance." By the way, in the last 13 meetings between the Heat and Bulls, the under is 10-3 and the home team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. If you like finesse basketball, don't watch the Eastern Conference Finals!

**StarDust Bum** · 05-15-2011, 12:21 AM

Inside the Eastern Conference Finals

May 14, 2011 12:11PM

When the Chicago Bulls made short work of Atlanta Thursday night on the Hawks home court, they not only captured the series 4 games to 2, but set up one of the most intriguing NBA Conference finals in more than a decade.

Yes, it’s time for the Bulls vs. the Heat. It’s Chicago vs. Miami. Good vs. Evil.

It’s the first trip to the finals since 1998 for Chicago – in what was then the last of the second three-peats of the Michael Jordan era.

The Bulls owned the Heat during the regular season meetings between the two, but all things are different in the NBA as June approaches.

Let’s take a look at this series that starts Sunday in Chicago at the United Center. It’s the team that bought its way into contention (Miami) – the team of superstars vs. the craftily constructed, team-oriented group put together in Chicago by General Manager John Paxson.

Sure, the Bulls tried to get LeBron James and others, and finally did acquire the services of Carlos Boozer, who helped Chicago earn the No. 1 seed in the East. But this series has captured the attention of NBA lovers even before it has started.

Miami features the dollar-laden trio of James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. The Bulls feature sparkling team defense and the youngest league MVP in history in Derrick Rose. It’s the NBA coach of the year Tom Thidodeau vs. craftsman Erik Spoelstra. It’s the matchup of two major markets for the right to play for the 2011 NBA championship.

Rose, of course, is the playmaker and catalyst for the Bulls. Luol Deng and Carlos Boozer are the next two options. Can they match the output of James, Wade and Bosh? Deng likely will be assigned to try to control James – just as he worked that role during the regular-season series.

Maybe the bench will be the key to the series. And Chicago’s depth is impressive. Maybe defense will be the key. It is interesting to note that Chicago held Miami under 100 points in those three regular season games. Can they do it again? Kyle Korver re-discovered his scoring punch Thursday against Atlanta. His contributions will be needed by Chicago. Ditto for Taj Gibson, who can light it up quickly as his 11 points in the fourth quarter of Game 5 vs. Atlanta showed.

How much help will Ronnnie Brewer and Turkish newcomer Omer Asik give the Bulls? Can James Jones or Mario Chalmers give Miami something to count on other than the Big Three?

The teams won’t win with only Big Three vs. Big Three. It will be team defense, bench and strategy that dictates who advances.

The Bulls are not putting a lot of stock in winning the season series. They remember the last time they won a playoff series. It was 2007. The Bulls swept the Heat then fell to the Detroit Pistons- a team they owned during the regular season.

What are some keys to this monster matchup?

Derrick Rose has increased his scoring average in the last four playoff series. If he makes it five in a row, it could be trouble for Miami.

The Heat can’t afford to have any of their big three have a cold shooting night. Miami feels the true league MVP resides in that city. This series could show just that.

Can Boozer and Deng match Wade and Bosh? They both shoot extremely well and will give Miami fits if it overloads on Rose.

Don’t discount defense. Most NBA playoff games feature less scoring than regular season games. Chicago is a blue-collar team. It must get the loose balls, tips, steals and forced turnovers to fuel its offensive spurts.

How many shots will Wade and James get to get their points (both are averaging more than 267 points a game in the playoffs)? The more shots they need, the better the Bulls chances.

It’s time for Chris Bosh to step up and dominate inside. Can he stay fresh enough to challenge the myriad of players Chicago will use to keep fresh defensively?

How big is the coaching factor? Thibodeau won more games (62) than any other rookie coach. Can he outduel Spoelstra, who must be a tactician to devise a way to stop Rose.

Miami knows what time it is. The Heat dumped last year’s conference champion Boston in five games and made the Celtics look old and slow. Can the South Beach wonders keep the same work ethic and pace against a strong Chicago club?

It will be fun. It will be interesting. It’s a dream matchup. Be ready for Sunday.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-15-2011, 12:28 AM

Recent Trends | In Depth

Miami:

Under is 9-0 in MIA last 9 Conference Finals games.
MIA are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games.

Head to Head:

Under is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings.
Home team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-15-2011, 07:05 PM

Sunday, May 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 8:00 PM ET Chicago -2 500
Chicago - Under 180.5 500

**StarDust Bum** · 05-16-2011, 10:23 PM

NBA odds favor Dallas Mavericks over Thunder

Oddsmakers like the eventual NBA champion to come from the East. The Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder each hope to wreck that notion.

The Western Conference Final is finally ready to tip after the Thunder took care of business Sunday, defeating the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 7 of that series. The matchup between the 3rd-seeded Mavericks and 4th-seeded Oklahoma City gets underway Tuesday night in Dallas. ESPN has the action from American Airlines Center starting at 6:00 p.m. (PT).

Dallas opened as the series favorite priced at -230. Game 1 has the Mavs 6-point favorites at home with 193½ for the scoreboard number according to the Don Best odds screen.

The Mavericks have been idle since May 8 when they finished sweeping the Lakers out of the conference semis. That series followed a 6-game session against the Trail Blazers. Dallas has not been beaten at the betting window so far in the playoffs and brings a 14-game run covering spreads into this series.

It remains to be seen how much the layoff possibly hurts Dallas. The nine days between games will be the longest the Mavericks have had since the offseason, but if their performance after this year's All-Star break is any indication, there shouldn't be too much rust to shake free.

Dallas went into the midseason break on a good run, winning 13 of 14 straight up and covering 10 of 14 spreads. The Mavericks took about six days off and then reeled off five more wins in a row, covering three of the first five after the All-Star Game.

The opposite question rings out for Oklahoma City who is coming off a grueling and physical 7-game series opposite the Grizzlies with just one day to prepare for the Mavericks. How much that series may have taken out of the Thunder will be answered in the second half of Tuesday's opener.

The good news for both squads is this series won't take anything out of them in terms of travel with just 200 miles of Interstate 35 separating the two cities.

It's been over four months since the two clubs last met on the hardwood, and if a regular season trend continues then it's going to be a disappointing series for the Mavericks. The visitors won all three meetings on the schedule, Dallas winning twice in Oklahoma City and the Thunder triumphant in the lone game in Big D.

Kevin Durant and his pals were also the favorites in all three of those games, dropping the two at home as 4- and 2-point chalk and just covering the game in Dallas laying three. Dirk Nowitzki missed that January matchup at America Airlines Center with a sprained right knee.

Caron Butler had also suffered a knee injury that required surgery just prior to that January contest. It was originally thought he'd be lost for the entire season, but there is a possibility the 6-foot-7 forward could return at some point in this series.

Nowitzki and Durant are the big stars obviously, and both are having strong postseasons averaging 26.5 and 28.9 points per game respectively. Nowitzki scored over nine per game from the free-throw line in the series with Portland, a big factor in Dallas advancing, then shot 57 percent from the field in the broom job over the Lakers.

Durant bounced back from a poor performance in Game 6 vs. the Grizzlies to score 39 in Sunday's deciding victory. He averaged more than 29 per contest in the three games vs. the Mavs during the regular season.

While that duo rightfully commands much of the spotlight, the two most crucial players on the floor might be point guards Russell Westbrook and Jason Kidd. Westbrook came up huge in the triple-overtime Game 4 win at Memphis, then posted his third triple-double of the season in Sunday's win (14 points, 14 assists and 10 rebounds).

Kidd turned in several big games along the way against Portland and Los Angeles, and is averaging over 10 points per game during the playoffs after scoring less than eight in the regular season. There's a very large 16-year age difference between him and Westbrook, so having the extra time off before this series should be beneficial for the elder Kidd.

The series continues Thursday on the same floor with ESPN televising the game starting at 6:00 p.m. (PT).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-16-2011, 10:26 PM

NBA Betting: Chicago Bulls host Heat in Game 2

The ’over’ has cashed in six of the Miami Heat’s last seven games.
The Chicago Bulls are finally getting some respect from the oddsmakers as they host the Miami Heat in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Wednesday night. TNT will broadcast from the United Center at 5:30 p.m. (PT).

The Don Best odds screen has Chicago as 2-point favorites. That’s less than the -2 ½-point spread from Game 1, but the Bulls are now series favorites (-135) up 1-0 after previously being solid underdogs (+165).

The Heat were riding high heading into Sunday’s opener. They had just dispatched a very good, but aging Celtics team in five games and many were planning their title coronation with the seemingly unstoppable trio of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh.

Chicago meanwhile needed six games to get past a mediocre Atlanta team last round. The Bulls had the NBA’s best record (62-20) in the regular season, four more wins than Miami, but were considered too much of a one-man gang with league-MVP Derrick Rose.

All those perceptions changed Sunday after Chicago’s 103-82 opening home win. Miami actually led 58-57 with 7:11 left in the third quarter before a 10-0 Chicago run led to the eventual blowout.

Chicago has won all season with defense and rebounding in addition to Rose’s brilliance. Miami was held to just 34 second-half points and the advantage on the glass was 45-33 overall. The 19-6 offensive rebound margin allowed Chicago to take 19 more shots (87-68).

Rose had 28 points for the victors, but Luol Deng added 21, including 4-of-6 from three-point land. Starting big men Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah also did their share offensively with 14 and nine points respectively.

Chicago is now 4-0 straight up and 3-0-1 against the spread against Miami this season. The other three games were all decided by four points or less.

The 185 combined points scored in Game 1 managed to go ‘over’ the 180 ½-point total. The ‘over’ is 3-0 in the Heat’s last three games and 6-1 in their last seven, although it’s the first time they’ve allowed 100 points this postseason.

Miami has a couple of days off to figure out what went wrong. James only had 15 points (5-of-15 from the floor) after averaging 28 PPG versus Boston. He seemed like he had a hangover from the Celtics series, getting very emotional after multiple playoff losses to them while with Cleveland.

Wade (7-of-17, 18 points) also had a poor game after being tremendous versus Boston (30.2 PPG). That left Bosh (30 points) to do the heavy lifting himself.

Coach Erik Spoelstra has had to answer questions about the supporting cast all season. James Jones was the fourth-leading scorer last series at just 7.2 PPG and non ‘Big 3’ players combined for just 19 points on Sunday.

It’s hard to see Miami winning on Wednesday without very good games from James, Wade and Bosh. Jones had 25 points in Game 1 versus Boston, but has 15 points in the last five games combined (four points in the Chicago opener).

The Heat are now trailing in a series for the first time this postseason. They haven’t been through the playoff wars together and the pressure is mostly on James and Bosh, who are looking for their first ring to join Wade (2005-2006 Heat team). A bow-out this round would be another blow to their reputations.

Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last six games and 3-0 ATS in its last three at home. Miami is 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four away.

Neither team is reporting any injuries. Boozer’s turf toe seems to be improving as he’s averaging 16.5 points the last four games, compared to 9.8 PPG the first eight.

The series will shift to South Beach for Game 3 on Sunday, which means the teams will have had three more days rest. TNT will have the coverage at 5:30 p.m. (PT) once again.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-16-2011, 10:29 PM

Mavs-Thunder

May 16, 2011

Western Conference Finals

**No. 3 Dallas vs. No. 4 Oklahoma City**

Series Price: Dallas -240 Oklahoma City +200

Series Format: Dallas 2-2-1-1-1

Game 1 - Tuesday, May 17
Game 2 - Thursday, May 19
Game 3 - Saturday, May 21
Game 4 - Monday, May 23
Game 5 - Wednesday, May 25
Game 6 - Friday, May 27
Game 7 - Sunday, May 29

Head to Head Comparisons (Playoffs)
Team SU ATS Home Away O/U PPG DPPG
65-27 (8-2) 53-36 (10-0) 34-12 (5-0) 31-15 (3-2) 52-39 (6-4) 100.2 96
63-31 (8-4) 49-43 (6-5-1) 36-12 (6-1) 27-19 (2-3) 50-43 (5-6-1) 104.8 101

2010-11 Head to Head Meetings
Nov. 24, 2010 Dallas (+4) 111 at Oklahoma City 103 OVER 196.5
Dec. 27, 2010 Dallas (+1.5) 103 at Oklahoma City 93 UNDER 200.5
Jan. 6, 2011 Oklahoma City (-3) 99 at Dallas 95 OVER 192.5

Skinny: Everybody was writing Dallas off in the first round against Portland, but it finished that series in six games and it probably should've been over in five. In the second round, the Mavs had their toughness questioned but they silenced the critics with an emphatic sweep of the two-time defending champions Los Angeles Lakers. Up next for the Mavericks is Oklahoma City, who advanced to the conference finals after beating Denver in the first round and Memphis in the semifinals.

The Mavericks' veteran roster is led by Dirk Nowitzki (26.5 PPG), who's been untouchable in the playoffs. Jason Terry (18.3 PPG) continues to excel off the bench and point guard Jason Kidd (7.2 APG, 1.6 SPG) has proven to be a commodity despite his age. Along with this trio, Dallas has had great defensive contributions from lengthy players in Tyson Chandler and Shawn Marion. J.J. Barea and Peja Stojakovic had great series against the Lakers and will be looked for sparks off the Dallas bench.

Oklahoma City relies on its two-headed monster of Kevin Durant (28.9 PPG) and Russell Westbrook (23.9 PPG) but is that enough? If one of those two studs is off, the Thunder doesn't have much depth to compete with Dallas. James Harden (12.4 PPG) is a nice player off the bench but expecting him to shine in four games is hard. The addition of Kendrick Perkins (4.7 PPG, 6.5 RPG) was made to combat the Lakers not the Mavericks. His presence will be good for the Thunder on defense but he's limited offensively.

Is OKC an elite club or just fortunate to have the right matchups fallen into place? Seriously, who have they played? Can you name an All-Star on Denver or Memphis? Without taking anything away from Zach Randolph, have the Thunder played a team with this much fire power and overall talent yet? The answer is no. And if you say who has Dallas played? It's evident that the names Roy, Aldridge, Wallace, Bryant, Gasol, Bynum, Odom are all considered big-time players in the league.

Head-to-Head: Even though Dallas took two of the three regular season battles against Oklahoma City, the last time this pair squared off was in early January. It should be noted that the Mavericks won both of their games on the road and they had Caron Butler in the lineup. Also, Nowitzki only played sparingly in the second encounter after hurting his knee plus he missed the game in January, which Oklahoma City won on the road. Butler was also 'out for that tilt as well and the Thunder was without Perkins in all three of the affairs.

In the battle of All-Stars, Dirk posted 34 points in the November matchup and he notched 13 in just 11 minutes of the second encounter before leaving with the injury. Durant got his numbers (32, 28, 28) against the Mavericks, but Westbrook (15, 15, 13) couldn't do much in the three outings, which is a little surprising against an older and slower Kidd.

Oklahoma City was favored in all of the games, understandably with two at home and then the injury issues in the January encounter. The 'over' went 2-1 and those outcomes came down to makes and misses since the pace was around the league average (80 shots). In the November battle, the two teams combined for 47 free throws and 15 bombs from 3-point land. We mention that because in the second and third meetings, the pair combined for 29 and 32 makes from the charity stripe, which is a big difference in free points with the clock stopped. Dallas did keep up its hot shooting, adding 17 more 3-pointers in the final two contests for a combined 25 in the three affairs.

Gambling Notes: Dallas opened up as a 5 ½-point home favorite in Game 1 and the number has jumped up to six at most books. The number is solid, considering the Mavs were giving as many as five points to the Trail Blazers in the first round and just a couple points to the Lakers in the conference semifinals. Oklahoma City should be favored from two to four points at home, depending on how the series plays out.

As a bettor you have to ask yourself if it's smart to go against a team, Dallas, that's on a 10-0 ATS run. You can push that number to 14-0 ATS if you include the last four games of the regular season too. What really sticks out is that Dallas hasn't allowed anybody to bust the century mark during this run.

Oklahoma City has been decent at home (36-12) due its scoring but the offense has been tempered on the road, especially in the playoffs. Can the Thunder steal one in Dallas? Going 2-3 SU and 2-2-1 ATS against weaker foes in the first two rounds certainly doesn't bode much confidence.

VI handicapper and writer Kevin Rogers tossed this angle at me last Sunday and it's a good one on the Thunder, especially with possible scenarios for Game 3 and 6. He explained, "OKC doesn't mess around when laying points at home off a loss as the Thunder owns a 16-0 SU and 10-5-1 ATS ledger this season. In 15 of those 16 instances, Oklahoma City has eclipsed the 100-point mark, including the outburst against Memphis in Game 7."

As far as the schedule goes, all of the games will be separated by one day and both Dallas (33-17 SU, 28-20 ATS) and Oklahoma City (38-17 SU, 29-25 ATS) have been solid in those spots. Will the Mavs be affected with the layoff in the first game? Dallas has gone 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS when playing on breaks of three days or longer this season.

You could find more value with the total in this matchup. The opener for Game 1 is hovering around 193 points and like all other previous series the adjustments in the postseason have been overstated by the oddsmakers according to this writer. You might want to wait and see what happens and then apply the Zig-Zag theory with your 'over/under' investments. And team totals could be a look with 'under' OKC on the road and then taking 'over' at home. Seems like an obvious wager but it's been golden in the first two rounds.

Outlook: Often in betting circles you hear that it's easier to be the Hunter than the Hunted and that's the case with Dallas in this best-of-seven battle. The pressure is on the Mavericks as favorites and not the Thunder. Will Dirk get back to the Finals and give owner Mark Cuban another opportunity to hoist the Larry O'Brien Championship Trophy?

It's hard not to root for the pair and when you look at all of the matchups, it's obvious that Dallas has the edge with experience, overall talent and role players. Plus head coach Rick Carlisle is no stranger to the conference finals, making his third trip. He came up short the first two times with Detroit and Indiana, but we expect him to avenge those losses this year.

Dallas in 5...

**StarDust Bum** · 05-16-2011, 10:30 PM

3rd Round Betting Angles

May 14, 2011

One month into the NBA Playoffs and we’re down to the Conference Finals. In just two weeks the season will conclude with the Championship Finals as the 2010-11 season winds its way to the finish line.

Let’s take a peek and see what we can expect from teams in the Third Round of the playoffs. Remember, all results are ATS (Against The Spread) in Third Round action over the past 20 years, unless stated otherwise. Enjoy…

DOWN BUT NOT OUT

You can blow a good team out once. Twice is not as likely. As we’ve learned, teams that fail miserably tend to bounce back rather than stay down. In fact, teams off a point-spread loss of more than 10 points are a very profitable 39-24-1 ATS in 3rd round playoff action.

Bring them in off a SU upset loss as a favorite and they improve to 22-12-1 ATS. Let these upset losers dress up as dogs off a point-spread loss of more than 10 points and they become a 13-4-1 ATS winning proposition.

BETTER TEAMS MAKE NICE DOGS

Taking points with better teams will seldom put you in harm’s way.

Teams with a better win percentage takings points are 49-39-1 ATS on the blind. When playing after a loss, they are 21-13-1 ATS in this round. Bring them in off a loss of 4 or more points and they improve to 20-8-1 ATS.

Best of all, when taking 4 or more points with a better team off a loss of 4 or more points you have a 13-2-1 ATS winning edge.

RUNNING ON EMPTY

You can hold a good team down, but not for long.

Teams that reach the 3rd round of the playoffs have established themselves as being better than most. When good teams come up with sub par scoring efforts they tend to bounce back in followup games.

That’s confirmed by the fact the road teams in Round Three who scored 78 or fewer points in their previous game are a wallet stretching 15-5-1 ATS. Better yet, if the Over/Under total in this round is less than 186 points they improve to 13-2 against the number.

There you have it. Three rock-solid betting theories you can hang your hat on throughout the 3rd round of this year’s NBA playoffs.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-16-2011, 10:34 PM

Old-but-rested Mavs await Thunder

May 16, 2011

DALLAS (AP) - Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan have been through so many playoff series, they would be good sources to discuss the prevailing themes in the Western Conference finals, like how valuable experience is at this stage and whether there's such thing as too much rest between rounds.

Only, Bryant and Duncan aren't around. For just the second time since 1998, neither the Lakers nor the Spurs will represent the West in the NBA finals.

Instead, it'll either be Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd and the aging-but-rested Dallas Mavericks, or Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and the rapidly maturing Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Mavericks are a collection of 30-somethings bonded by a collective pursuit of their first championship. They have plenty of guys who've come close to a title, including a few holdovers from the 2006 team that interrupted the collection of conference titles piled up by the Spurs and Lakers.

With strong defense and so many scoring options they never know who'll share top billing with Nowitzki, Dallas swept the two-time defending champion Lakers in the second round. The reward was a nine-day wait for Game 1 on Tuesday night.

Or maybe that was a punishment.

``That's a looong layoff,'' Mavs center Tyson Chandler said Monday. ``Yesterday, the scrimmage got a little chippy, so it was obvious we were ready to play somebody else.''

Dallas had to keep waiting because the Thunder had its hands full with the Memphis Grizzlies.

Oklahoma City went the full seven games and then some, playing three overtimes in one game and one extra period in another. While most clubs would've wanted some down time, the Thunder might be the exception. With their age and exuberance, a lone day off between series may have felt like an eternity.

``We have a young, energetic, athletic team that loves to play and wants to play every night,'' coach Scott Brooks said. ``We're excited about being in the position that we are in. We're not 'just happy to be here' and just 'whatever happens happens.'''

Without the Lakers, and with the Eastern Conference finals featuring the newly crowned MVP and newly crowned Coach of the Year against the glitzy guys from South Beach, this series could be considered the undercard. Having clubs located 200 miles apart in the south, central part of the country certainly doesn't bode well for television ratings.

Maybe Mavs owner Mark Cuban will break his recent self-imposed silence and take shots at Oklahoma. He's lived in Texas long enough to know the enmity between Longhorns and Sooners. It's worth noting he was one of two owners to vote against the SuperSonics moving from Seattle to Oklahoma City.

Then again, the battle of headliners Dirk and Durant could be enough to drive this series.

If not, there are plenty of other good story lines.

- Age, experience vs. youth, inexperience

The contrast in age will be talked about a lot and for good reason.

The top four scorers on the Thunder are 23 or younger. The Mavs only have two guys who are 23 or younger and neither has played this postseason.

Dallas relies on seven players in their 30s. Oklahoma City has only two guys in their 30s and both are backups.

Although no Mavericks have won a title, nearly all of them have deep reservoirs of big-game experience. The Thunder have few guys who've ever been this close to a title, but they have two guys with rings: center Kendrick Perkins (2008, Boston) and his backup, Nazr Mohammed ('05, Spurs).

``We've got to put them in position they haven't been in to be able to use that wisdom,'' Kidd said. ``If you don't, they're just as talented as any team left in the playoffs.''

- Rest vs. rust?

Before they were put on hiatus, the Mavs had won a franchise-record six straight postseason games. It remains to be seen whether they can pick up where they left off.

In the shot-clock era, teams that have gone at least nine days between series are 9-9 in Game 1s, and 11-7 in the next round, according to research by STATS LLC.

Among the teams to win Game 1 and the series was the 2004 Pacers, coached by Rick Carlisle, who is now Dallas' coach.

``I like what we've done and I know guys are ready to play,'' he said.

- Revenge

In February 2009, Chandler was driving to the airport, bound for Oklahoma City to join the Thunder, when his phone rang. He was told to head home. Oklahoma City said he failed a physical and rescinded the deal.

He hasn't forgotten.

In three games against the Thunder this season, he had among his best scoring averages (12.7 points) and easily his most rebounds (15.3) against any team.

``You really don't need any extra incentives,'' he said, ``but I've got some extra ones.''

- Matchups

These teams hardly know each other.

Dallas won two of the three regular-season meetings, but that's pretty meaningless. The Mavs had Caron Butler for the first two games and didn't have Nowitzki for 1 1/2 of those games. Butler has since gone down for the season and Peja Stojakovic has arrived. The Thunder shored up its interior by adding Perkins.

All eyes will be on how each team covers the other's superstar.

Shawn Marion will start against Durant, the league's two-time reigning scoring champion, and will get help from Nowitzki and others - perhaps even Kidd, who often covered Bryant last round. Carlisle won't expect Kidd to stay with the speedy Westbrook.

``We've got to build a wall on him,'' Chandler said. ``It's not about one guy stopping him. It's about our team slowing him down.''

Oklahoma City will start Serge Ibaka against Nowitzki, with Perkins, Mohammed, Durant, Nick Collison and James Harden among those who also may take turns against the big German.

``We have our work cut out for us,'' Durant said, ``but it should be fun.''

**StarDust Bum** · 05-17-2011, 06:01 PM

Thunder-Mavs open West Finals Tuesday in Dallas

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

at DALLAS MAVERICKS

NBA Playoffs - Western Conference Finals
Game 1
Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -6, Total: 193.5

The Western Conference Finals will not feature the Lakers or Spurs for only the second time since 1998. Instead, it will be a battle between that veteran Mavericks and the young and ambitious Thunder.

After only one day of rest, Oklahoma City will have to lace up the sneakers and go play Dallas at the American Airlines Center. The Thunder finally knocked off the pesky Grizzlies on Sunday with a 105-90 win. Kevin Durant (28.9 PPG in playoffs) dropped 39 points and grabbed nine rebounds to the lead the Thunder. Russell Westbrook (23.9 PPG in playoffs) recorded his first playoff triple-double with 14 points, 14 assists and 10 rebounds. Westbrook only attempted 12 shots and distributed much better, which silenced many of the critics who say Westbrook shoots too much and doesn’t share the ball as the point guard. Westbrook and Jason Kidd should be a very interesting matchup with the quickness of the 22-year-old Westbrook and the experience of the 38-year-old Kidd. The short rest shouldn’t hurt the Thunder considering they are one of the youngest teams in the NBA and their top four scorers are 23 or younger. Oklahoma City was 38-17 SU (69%) and 29-24-2 ATS (55%) with just one day’s rest this season.

The Dallas Mavericks come rolling into the Western Conference finals after an impressive sweep of the two-time defending champion Lakers. Eight days ago, Jason Terry and the Mavericks put on one of the best shooting performances seen in the playoffs in a long time. Terry (18.3 PPG in playoffs) hit 9-of-10 three-pointers and scored 32 points. The Mavericks as a team went 20-of-32 from behind the arc and tied a playoff record. Dallas wound up winning Game 4, 122-86 and gave itself more than a week to rest its veteran team. The Mavericks certainly needed the rest since they rely on seven players who are in their 30’s and their leader and point guard, Jason Kidd, is 38 years old.

Oklahoma City has been terrific this year when underdogs of 3.5-to-6 points (8-3 ATS). During the playoffs this year, the Thunder are 6-5-1 ATS, but have been favored in most games. For the year, OKC is 17-12 ATS as an underdog and 25-20 ATS on the road. In their last 15 road games, the Thunder have notched a 10-4-1 ATS record. Dallas has been great as a favorite (35-26 ATS, 57%) but just 24-20 ATS in home games. The Mavs have been terrific in these playoffs going 10-0 ATS, giving them 14 straight ATS wins dating back to the regular season. For the year, Dallas is 34-16 ATS (68%) against teams with a winning record and 28-10 ATS (74%) after three consecutive wins. I think the game will be close, but Dallas will pull away at the end and cover by a few points.

Two more highly-rated FoxSheets trends for the Mavericks to win and cover include:

DALLAS is 30-13 ATS (69.8%, +15.7 Units) after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season. The average score was DALLAS 100.4, OPPONENT 95.2 - (Rating = 3*).

DALLAS is 41-20 ATS (67.2%, +19.0 Units) after playing a game as favorite this season. The average score was DALLAS 102.8, OPPONENT 95.6 - (Rating = 3*).

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

at DALLAS MAVERICKS

NBA Playoffs - Western Conference Finals
Game 1
Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -6, Total: 193.5

The Western Conference Finals will not feature the Lakers or Spurs for only the second time since 1998. Instead, it will be a battle between that veteran Mavericks and the young and ambitious Thunder.

After only one day of rest, Oklahoma City will have to lace up the sneakers and go play Dallas at the American Airlines Center. The Thunder finally knocked off the pesky Grizzlies on Sunday with a 105-90 win. Kevin Durant (28.9 PPG in playoffs) dropped 39 points and grabbed nine rebounds to the lead the Thunder. Russell Westbrook (23.9 PPG in playoffs) recorded his first playoff triple-double with 14 points, 14 assists and 10 rebounds. Westbrook only attempted 12 shots and distributed much better, which silenced many of the critics who say Westbrook shoots too much and doesn’t share the ball as the point guard. Westbrook and Jason Kidd should be a very interesting matchup with the quickness of the 22-year-old Westbrook and the experience of the 38-year-old Kidd. The short rest shouldn’t hurt the Thunder considering they are one of the youngest teams in the NBA and their top four scorers are 23 or younger. Oklahoma City was 38-17 SU (69%) and 29-24-2 ATS (55%) with just one day’s rest this season.

The Dallas Mavericks come rolling into the Western Conference finals after an impressive sweep of the two-time defending champion Lakers. Eight days ago, Jason Terry and the Mavericks put on one of the best shooting performances seen in the playoffs in a long time. Terry (18.3 PPG in playoffs) hit 9-of-10 three-pointers and scored 32 points. The Mavericks as a team went 20-of-32 from behind the arc and tied a playoff record. Dallas wound up winning Game 4, 122-86 and gave itself more than a week to rest its veteran team. The Mavericks certainly needed the rest since they rely on seven players who are in their 30’s and their leader and point guard, Jason Kidd, is 38 years old.

Oklahoma City has been terrific this year when underdogs of 3.5-to-6 points (8-3 ATS). During the playoffs this year, the Thunder are 6-5-1 ATS, but have been favored in most games. For the year, OKC is 17-12 ATS as an underdog and 25-20 ATS on the road. In their last 15 road games, the Thunder have notched a 10-4-1 ATS record. Dallas has been great as a favorite (35-26 ATS, 57%) but just 24-20 ATS in home games. The Mavs have been terrific in these playoffs going 10-0 ATS, giving them 14 straight ATS wins dating back to the regular season. For the year, Dallas is 34-16 ATS (68%) against teams with a winning record and 28-10 ATS (74%) after three consecutive wins. I think the game will be close, but Dallas will pull away at the end and cover by a few points.

Two more highly-rated FoxSheets trends for the Mavericks to win and cover include:

DALLAS is 30-13 ATS (69.8%, +15.7 Units) after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season. The average score was DALLAS 100.4, OPPONENT 95.2 - (Rating = 3*).

DALLAS is 41-20 ATS (67.2%, +19.0 Units) after playing a game as favorite this season. The average score was DALLAS 102.8, OPPONENT 95.6 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-17-2011, 06:50 PM

NBA

Tuesday, May 17

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Oklahoma City - 9:00 PM ET Dallas -5.5 500
Dallas - Over 194.5 500

Announcement

The Bum's Eastern/Western Conference NBA Best Bets !

The Bum's Eastern/Western Conference NBA Best Bets !

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