The Bum's SuperBowl XLV Best Bets + New, Notes, Trend Etc. !

[StarDust Bum]

Special Teams

February 4, 2011

The offensive and defensive units of both the Packers and Steelers are pretty prevalent, but the one unit that can make a play or two to alter the outcome of Super Bowl XLV is the special teams. Each club doesn't rank high in the return game, but there several players to keep an eye in regards to special teams on Sunday evening.

Packers' special teams

Green Bay is fairly average in the kickoff return game with Jordy Nelson and Sam Shields each taking back kicks this season. Nelson (22.5 yards/return) and Shields (21.5 yards/return) have actually shined in different areas than special teams with Nelson picking up some keys grabs as a receiver, while Shields made two interceptions in the NFC Title Game at Chicago.

The Packers rank 26th in the league with a return of average of 20.5 on kickoffs, while not taking any kicks back for touchdowns. The punt return game is significantly better with cornerback Tramon Williams racking up 326 yards on returns, which ranked ninth in the NFL. Overall, Green Bay was 22nd in punt return average at 7.9 yards a return.

Mason Crosby converted 22 of 28 field goals, while finishing the season with 112 points. Sportsbook.com has listed several props for Crosby, including total field goals made and total points. The field goals made total is set at 1 ½, shading toward the 'under' at -120. Crosby converted multiple field goals in eight of 19 games this season, while having two playoff games in which he didn't even try a field goal. The total points number is set at 7 ½, once again shading toward the 'under' at -130. Crosby finished with seven points or less 10 times this season, including seven times away from Lambeau Field.

Punter Tim Masthay booted 71 punts, which ranked 24th in the league, while finishing 14th with a 43.9 average. Masthay accumulated five touchbacks, as there is a prop on whether or not he will send a punt into the end zone (Yes +165, No -210). The Pittsburgh native has a prop on longest punt of 55 ½ (-115 each way), as nine of his 71 punts sailed at least 56 yards.

Steelers' special teams

Pittsburgh's third unit falls in the middle of the pack in several categories, while the kickoff and punt return units didn't radically change field position. Rookies Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown did plenty of work on kickoff returns, including Brown's 89-yard touchdown on the opening kickoff at Tennessee. Sanders averaged 25.1 yards on kickoff returns this season, which ranked 11th in the league.

The Steelers were 13th in the NFL in kickoff returns at 23.5 yards/return, despite making only 49 returns, which was last in the league. The punt return game was non-existent, finishing 29th with just 226 yards, while Brown picked up 110 of those yards.

Jeff Reed was cut halfway through the season, opening the door for Shaun Suisham to take over the kicking duties. The former Cowboy made his presence felt two weeks in with four field goals, including the game-winner in a 19-16 overtime victory at Buffalo. Suisham was 14 of 15 in the regular season, while converting two of three field goals in the postseason. There are two props for Suisham, similar to the ones listed for Crosby. Made field goals is 1 ½, with the 'under' set at -140, while the 'over' for Suisham is a profitable +110. The total points for Suisham is set at 6 ½, shaded to the 'over' at -130. In his nine games kicking for the Steelers, Suisham put up at least seven points five times.

After Daniel Sepulveda tore his ACL, former Packer Jeremy Kapinos was signed to take over the punting duties in Pittsburgh. The ex-Penn State punter booted just 19 punts for an average of 41.9 yards, which ranked 28th in the league. Kapinos has three props listed, including longest punt of 53 ½ (-115 each way).

Who has the edge?

There are no significant advantages when comparing these two units, mainly because each offense and defense takes care of a majority of business. Suisham has kicked well for the Steelers since his arrival in November, and with the potential for a big kickoff return, Pittsburgh owns a slight edge in this category.

Edge: Steelers

[StarDust Bum]

SBXLV Betting Moves

February 4, 2011

The South Point continues to bounce around from -2 ½ to -3 having done so four different times alone today. No one else in town is budging. So while everyone else is town essentially has a closed sign on their game - because large money doesn't want +2 ½ (EV) with the Steelers or -2 ½ (-120) with the Packers -- the South Point is raking in all the cash.

Critics of this tactic may say it’s irresponsible and reckless to play around with a “3” in the Super Bowl, but I got to hand it to their boss Bert Osborne over there for making business happen. He’s manufacturing business with the numbers people want. They like laying -2 ½ flat with Green Bay and taking +3 flat with Pittsburgh; no one is even trying to compete.

The only risk happens if the game does land “3” and then they’ll have to give the Pittsburgh money back while paying on all the Packers money. But that’s only one number. What about the Packers winning by the number 4 to infinity? If that happens and none of these books have Steelers money, their going to be left at the alter with no way of getting Steelers money, unless they go to +3 themselves, but who knows how much out there is left by then.

The public loves the Packers and they’ll bet whatever the number is even if it goes as high as -2 ½ (-135 or -140). The same goes for the public liking the Steelers, but the large money is being forced to bet all their action at the South Point right now on both sides at flat money. By kickoff, it’s possible that most of the large money that may have been spread around everywhere else in town has already been funneled through to the South Point.

Should the game land “3”, it’s only a push and they’ll lose on the Packers side just like everyone else. However, any other decision is going to make the South point hold very high because of the maneuvering and the extra money handled. The juice alone on the high handle, theorectically, makes them a winner.

It’s still only Friday, with more the half of the overall action still to come, but we’ll keep you all updated as it happens with more of “As the Vegas Sports Books Turn”.

Betting Update – Thursday, 3:06 p.m. Pacific

It only took 50 minutes before the Pittsburgh money flooded every outlet of the South Point operation with enough money to push them back to -2 ½. This proves that there is Steelers money out just waiting to bet.

What this does is show every sports book in the city that there is Steelers money really to be had, not just speculated. But now they know what it will take to get it and are they willing to the distance to get it. There no longer is a need to test the waters, because the results have been proven thanks to the South Point. The other books can only go so long by taking Packers money and at some juncture someone high up isn’t going to be happy with the type of liability that is about to occur if they don’t go to -3.

Once again, when a few other books do go to -3, they’ll all go for fear of not getting any of that Steelers money to balance things out. Who wants to be left out when it looks like only a few groups want the +3 right now. The small money and regular Joe’s who like the Steelers really don’t care what line they lay -- betting it whenever -- and those are the type of people that control the Super Bowl.

I’ll update later as more unfolds on the other “Big Game” going on every Las Vegas sports book right now.

Betting Update - Thursday 2:16 p.m. Pacific

The South Point was the first Las Vegas sports book to blink in a staring contest with the Super Bowl line going from minus-2 ½ to -3 on Thursday afternoon. Every book in town has been steady at -2 ½ since the opening line came out with only the Golden Nugget opening at a higher number, but the steady stream of Packers money has been mounting making the risk quite substantial. The consensus feeling from most sports books has been that Steelers money will eventually show up.

By being the first in town since the Golden Nugget briefly had up a -3 ½ and -3, the South Point puts their feet in the water to test the market. No sports book really wants to go to the key number “3” because it’s the most hit upon margin of victory in the NFL. This season over 17% of all NFL games landed on “3”. Getting sided (losing one side and pushing with the other) in a Super Bowl would be a disaster because of the millions in handle.

From a bettor’s standpoint, the smaller money is likely to jump in immediately because this is the number they have been waiting 10 days to happen. The larger money from a few groups might opt to wait and not show their hand so they can simultaneously get down at several other sports books around the city when they are eventually forced to go to -3.

What happens within the next few hours will be a key moment in the Super Bowl betting progress, because if the South Point is forced back down to -2 ½, then it shows everyone in the city that there is Steelers money ready to pounce on the key number and they'll eventually have to take 2 ½.

Should the line stay as is at the South Point through the night, we should see almost every sports book in the city at -3 by Friday morning.

If the Steelers money still doesn't come, then you'll have quite a few Sports Book Directors wearing black and gold on Sunday.

Currently, there are no flat numbers available in Las Vegas with the exception of the South Point, a book that never attaches additional money to any game. Every other book is Packers -2 ½ (-115 or -120).

[StarDust Bum]

Steelers go for 7th Super Bowl victory

Super Bowl XLV
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (14-4)
GREEN BAY PACKERS (13-6)

Cowboys Stadium – Arlington, TX
Kickoff: Sunday, 6:25 p.m. EDT
Line: Green Bay -3, Total: 45

For two teams that meet once every four years, the Steelers and Packers should feel oddly familiar with each other.

Start with the defenses. The 3-4 front, “Blitzburgh” identity originated in 1992 when Bill Cowher handed the defensive coordinator role to. . . Dom Capers, who now coordinates the Packers D. Both defenses rely on deception among the front seven to generate pressure and throw off opposing quarterbacks. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers will counter it with brains and escapability, while Ben Roethlisberger can beat defenses with brawn, an ability to shed blitzers and improvise school-yard style.

Both teams will likely struggle to run the ball. That’s in spite of a couple of hot running backs—Packers rookie James Starks has been a post-season revelation and Rashard Mendenhall is coming off an outstanding 121-yard effort against the Jets. The Steelers' front three of Casey Hampton, Brett Keisel and Ziggy Hood are all formidable run-stuffers. The Packers are also strong against the run—B.J. Raji is playing as well as any nose tackle in the NFL, and the Steelers could be without Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey, who suffered an ankle injury early in the AFC title game.

Separation in the secondary will less of an issue for the Packers receivers—the Steelers’ mediocre stable of cornerbacks will be tested by Green Bay’s four starting-caliber WRs, led by true superstar Greg Jennings. But the Steelers do have an ace up their sleeve in Troy Polamalu. With two weeks to rest an injured Achilles that was clearly bothering him in their two postseason wins, a healthy Polamalu freelancing in the secondary could give Rodgers just enough pause to allow OLBs James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley, who has 10 sacks in six career playoff games, to get to him. Green Bay’s offensive line is average, but when you play the Steelers, your tight ends—and more importantly, your running backs—have to be up to the task in pass protection. That could be an issue.

Rodgers faced five teams that use primarily 3-4 fronts. The Dolphins (5 sacks of Rodgers) and Redskins (4 sacks) each scored upsets over the Pack. The Jets (2 sacks) held them to nine points. The then-hapless Cowboys (one sack) are the only 3-4 defense that Rodgers torched. Tight end Andrew Quarless will be overmatched, as will Starks, who hasn’t seen anything like the Steelers’ blitz-happy scheme.

When the Steelers have the ball, budding superstar Tramon Williams or rookie speedster Sam Shields have a shot to contain burner Mike Wallace, who caught just one six-yard pass against the Jets. Charles Woodson can handle Hines Ward underneath. Pittsburgh once again needs big performances from rookies Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown, as well as tight end Heath Miller, who could stay in more often to help on OLB Clay Matthews. Roethlisberger is the most difficult QB to scheme for in the league because of his ability to improvise and turn broken plays into big gains. But officiating will have a huge impact. The Packers cornerbacks are physical and toe the line between incidental grabbing and penalties. That will be a factor when Big Ben extends a play and they try to cover for an extra second or two. On average, since 1992, there have been nearly two fewer flags (12.7 to 10.9) and 17 fewer penalty yards (103.3 to 86.3) in Super Bowl games than in regular-season matchups.

Speaking of regular-season matchups, these teams did play each other in Pittsburgh during the 2009 season. At the time the Steelers were reeling, coming off give straight losses, and were without Polamalu. As time expired, Roethlisberger threw a 19-yard TD pass to Wallace at the side of the end zone (in front of CB Josh Bell, who’s now out of the NFL) to give the Steelers a 37-36 victory. Rodgers threw for 383 yards and was sacked just once on 51 dropbacks, but he had a healthy Jermichael Finley catching a team-high nine passes for 74 yards (Finley is on injured reserve). Roethlisberger threw for 503 yards.

They were much different teams then. The return of Polamalu and the maturation of Rodgers can’t be underestimated. Those two will be at the center of a chess match that will decide Super Bowl XLV. This is a tight match-up, but the big-game experience of Roethlisberger and the Steelers gives Pittsburgh a slight edge.

The FoxSheets give two more reasons for backing Pittsburgh to win its seventh championship.

PITTSBURGH is 38-16 ATS (70.4%, +20.4 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. since 1992. The average score was PITTSBURGH 24.2, OPPONENT 19.1 - (Rating = 2*).

PITTSBURGH is 17-7 ATS (70.8%, +9.3 Units) after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was PITTSBURGH 24.0, OPPONENT 16.4 - (Rating = 0*).

These teams had the top two scoring defenses in the NFL during the regular season (Pittsburgh 1st at 14.5 PPG and Green Bay 2nd at 15.0 PPG). However, this four-star FoxSheets trend concerning both teams sides with the Over on Sunday.

Play Over - Any team against the total (PITTSBURGH, GREEN BAY) - after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games. (32-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.1%, +24.3 units. Rating = 4*).

[tech fan]

Gl buddy and thanks for your hard work

[StarDust Bum]

My Superbowl Pick:


Sunday, February 6Game Score Status Pick Amount

Pittsburgh - 6:25 PM ET Green Bay -3 500

Green Bay - Under 44.5 500


Green Bay- 23

Pittsburg - 19