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**StarDust Bum** · 01-24-2011, 12:40 AM

Packers -2.5 in Super Bowl XLV

January 23, 2011

Two of the oldest franchises in NFL history meet in the Super Bowl for the first time as the Packers opened up as 2 ½-point favorites over the Steelers. Green Bay will attempt to be the first sixth seed to win a Super Bowl since Pittsburgh accomplished that feat in 2006.

Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas houses Super Bowl XLV as the Packers play in an elimination game for the sixth straight week. Green Bay needed wins in the final two weeks of the regular season over the Giants and Bears just to advance to the postseason. As a sixth seed, Mike McCarthy's team knocked off the Eagles and Falcons on the road as short underdogs. The Packers were listed as an away favorite in Sunday's NFC Championship at Chicago, as Green Bay cashed with a 21-14 victory.

The Steelers made it the more conventional way by winning two home games after receiving a first-round bye. Pittsburgh rallied past Baltimore in the Divisional Playoffs, 31-24 to cash as three-point favorites. Mike Tomlin's club jumped out to a 24-0 lead over the Jets in the AFC Title game, but New York made it interesting with 19 unanswered points. The Steelers held on for a 24-19 win as four-point 'chalk,' heading to their third Super Bowl in five seasons.

This is the shortest line since the Ravens demolished the Giants as three-point favorites in Super Bowl XXXV, 34-7. Since that game, the underdogs are 7-2 ATS, including New Orleans' 31-17 outright victory as five-point 'dogs. The only wins by favorites in the past decade were the Steelers in XL over the Seahawks (21-10 as four-point 'chalk') and the Colts over the Bears in XLI (29-17 as seven-point favorites).

From the totals perspective, the number opened at 45 ½ with the total heading towards 46 shortly after the opener was posted. VegasInsider's Chris David discusses the move, "The early total money on Super Bowl XLV came in on the 'over' and right now, you can argue it both ways. Both teams have capable quarterbacks that can dice up any defense, if given time. However, that's a big if. But even if the defenses show up, like they did in their championship games, they've both shown that they can help light up the scoreboard as well."

However, David points out that the defenses do step up in this game, "Make a note that the 'under' has been golden in the last six Super Bowl appearances, producing a 5-1 record. And, you can make a case that the 'under' should've cashed in the Steelers 27-23 victory over the Cardinals during Super Bowl XLIII from Tampa if it wasn't for a late outburst in the fourth."

It's not crazy to think that a sixth seed should be favored over a team that had a first-round bye in the playoffs. As mentioned earlier, Pittsburgh's 11-point victory over Seattle at Ford Field in 2006 was the fourth straight win on the highway for the Steelers, as the Packers look to turn that trick in Texas on February 6.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-24-2011, 12:42 AM

Vegas: Green Bay slight favorite

January 23, 2011

LAS VEGAS (AP) - Sports books in Nevada have made Green Bay a slight favorite in the Super Bowl over Pittsburgh based on the Packers' popularity among bettors during the past few weeks.

The Glantz-Culver line has made the Packers an early 2 1/2-point favorite and put the game's total score at 45 1/2 points for the Feb. 6 game in Arlington, Texas.

Oddsmaker Andrew Patterson of Las Vegas Sports Consultants said Sunday night that the firm made the Packers a 1 1/2-point favorite over the Steelers to try to encourage action on both teams.

Jay Kornegay, chief of the Las Vegas Hilton's sports book, says his book made the Packers a 2-point favorite and quickly moved the line also to 2 1/2 points as bettors gambled on Green Bay.

The Super Bowl is the most popular betting game of the year. Nevada casinos won almost $6.9 million on last year's game as bettors wagered $82.7 million.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-24-2011, 12:43 AM

Super Stats

January 23, 2011

Handicapping the Super Bowl takes on a different perspective each year.

Granted, there are a myriad of statistics, angles and trends we can draw from but the bottom line is the personalities of the teams are equally important when it comes to isolating the eventual winner.

Safe to say that sports handicappers do not hold psychiatric degrees, let’s take a quick look at some of the more interesting trends that have occurred in Super Bowls past. All results are ATS (Against the Spread) in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, unless noted otherwise.

Faux Favorites

The public loves backing favorites and when it comes to the Super Bowl it’s like putting kids in a candy store.

As a result, the public today is badly in need of new dental health care coverage. That’s because overloading on these super-sweet favorites has proven to be a decaying experience, with favorites sporting a 19-11 SU and 12-16-2 ATS record, including 4-9-2 ATS the last 15 games.

Favorites (Green Bay) taking on opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins are just 6-13-2 ATS.

Super Bowl chalk taking on an opponent that did not cover its championship game by 12 or more points are 8-6 SU and 3-12-1 ATS.

The last 16 favorites to score 30 or less points are 2-14-1 ATS.

Hit Me

Speaking of scoring, putting points in the scoreboard is obviously tantamount to succeeding in this game.

Those that do, win the game and the money. Those that don’t, lose the game and the money. It’s just that simple. And 21 points appears to be the cut-line.

That’s because teams that fail to score 21 points in the Super Bowl are 1-20 SU and 3-17-1 ATS. Teams that tally 21 or more points are 26-9 SU and 23-9-3 ATS. The lone winner that failed to eclipse the 21-point plateau was the New York Giants (17 points) in SBXLII against New England.

Twenty-seven points virtually assures a victory as teams putting 27 or more on the scoreboard are 22-1 SU and 19-3-1 ATS. The lone team to bust this mark and lose was Carolina (29), who fell to New England in SBXXXVIII.

Seed Me

Going back the last 15 years, the higher-seeded team has struggled mightily against the spread in the big game.

Last year paired both the No. 1 seeds from each conference for the first time in 16 years when New Orleans upended Indianapolis, 31-17.

Two years ago Pittsburgh downed Arizona, 27-23, while failing to cover the seven-point spread. As a result the higher seeded team (Pittsburgh) will carry a 1-11-2 ATS mark into SBXLV.

On a side note, the last No.1 to win a Super Bowl, playing a non-No.1 seed, was the ’99 Rams.

Conference Call

Like the National League’s one-time mastery over the American League, the NFC has held the upper hand over the AFC in Super Bowl games since 1980, going 19-11 SU and 18-10-2 ATS.

When facing an AFC foe off back-to-back ATS wins, the NFC is 15-6 SU and 15-5-1 ATS in games with Roman Numerals attached. However, the NFC is only 4-9 SU and 6-6-1 ATS in the last 13 Super Bowl contests.

One final note: this marks the first time in nine years the NFC will dress up as the favorite.

That’s an early take on this year’s Super Bowl matchup. Good luck as always.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-24-2011, 12:46 AM

Super Bowl History

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SUPER BOWL HISTORY
Superbowl Year Winner Winner's Line Loser Total Location

XLIV 2010 New Orleans Saints 31 +5 Indianapolis Colts 17 57, UNDER Miami, FL

XLIII 2009 Pittsburgh Steelers 27 -7 Arizona Cardinals 23 46, OVER Tampa, FL

XLII 2008 New York Giants 17 +12 New England Patriots 14 55, UNDER Glendale, AZ

XLI 2007 Indianapolis Colts 29 -7 Chicago Bears 17 47, UNDER Miami, FL

XL 2006 Pittsburgh Steelers 21 -4 Seattle Seahawks 10 47, UNDER Detroit, MI

XXXIX 2005 New England Patriots 24 -7 Philadelphia Eagles 21 46.5, UNDER Jacksonville, FL

XXXVIII 2004 New England Patriots 32 -7 Carolina Panthers 29 37.5, OVER Houston, TX

XXXVII 2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48 +4 Oakland Raiders 21 44, OVER San Diego, CA

XXXVI 2002 New England Patriots 20 +14 St. Louis Rams 17 53, UNDER New Orleans, LA

XXXV 2001 Baltimore Ravens 34 -3 New York Giants 7 33, OVER Tampa, FL

XXXIV 2000 St. Louis Rams 23 -7 Tennessee Titans 16 47.5, UNDER Atlanta, GA

XXXIII 1999 Denver Broncos 34 -7.5 Atlanta Falcons 19 52.5, OVER Miami, FL

XXXII 1998 Denver Broncos 31 +11 Green Bay Packers 24 49, OVER San Diego, Ca

XXXI 1997 Green Bay Packers 35 -14 New England Patriots 21 49, OVER New Orleans, LA

*** 1996 Dallas Cowboys 27 -13.5 Pittsburgh Steelers 17 51, UNDER Tempe, AZ

XXIX 1995 San Francisco 49ers 49 -18.5 San Diego Chargers 26 53.5, OVER Miami, FL

XXVIII 1994 Dallas Cowboys 30 -10.5 Buffalo Bills 13 50.5, UNDER Atlanta, GA

XXVII 1993 Dallas Cowboys 52 -6.5 Buffalo Bills 17 44.5, OVER Pasadena, CA

XXVI 1992 Washington Redskins 37 -7 Buffalo Bills 24 49, OVER Minneapolis, MN

XXV 1991 New York Giants 20 +7 Buffalo Bills 19 40.5, UNDER Tampa, FL

XXIV 1990 San Francisco 49ers 55 -12 Denver Broncos 10 48, OVER New Orleans, LA

XXIII 1989 San Francisco 49ers 20 -7 Cincinnati Bengals 16 48, UNDER Miami, FL

XXII 1988 Washington Redskins 42 +3 Denver Broncos 10 47, OVER San Diego, CA

XXI 1987 New York Giants 39 -9.5 Denver Broncos 20 40, OVER Pasadena, CA

XX 1986 Chicago Bears 46 -10 New England Patriots 10 37.5, OVER New Orleans, LA

XIX 1985 San Francisco 49ers 38 -3.5 Miami Dolphins 16 53.5, OVER Stanford, CA

XVIII 1984 LA Raiders 38 +3 Washington Redskins 9 48, UNDER Tampa, FL

XVII 1983 Washington Redskins 27 +3 Miami Dolphins 17 36.5, OVER Pasadena, CA

XVI 1982 San Francisco 49ers 26 -1 Cincinnati Bengals 21 48, UNDER Pontiac, MI

XV 1981 Oakland Raiders 27 +3 Philadelphia Eagles 10 37.5, UNDER New Orleans, LA

XIV 1980 Pittsburgh Steelers 31 -10.5 Los Angeles Rams 19 36, OVER Pasadena, CA

XIII 1979 Pittsburgh Steelers 35 -3.5 Dallas Cowboys 31 37, OVER Miami, FL

XII 1978 Dallas Cowboys 27 -6 Denver Broncos 10 39, UNDER New Orleans, LA

XI 1977 Oakland Raiders 32 -4 Minnesota Vikings 14 38, OVER Pasadena, CA

X 1976 Pittsburgh Steelers 21 -7 Dallas Cowboys 17 36, OVER Miami, FL

IX 1975 Pittsburgh Steelers 16 -3 Minnesota Vikings 6 33, UNDER New Orleans, LA

VIII 1974 Miami Dolphins 24 -6.5 Minnesota Vikings 7 33, UNDER Houston, Tx

VII 1973 Miami Dolphins 14 -1 Washington Redskins 7 33, UNDER Los Angeles, CA

VI 1972 Dallas Cowboys 24 -6 Miami Dolphins 3 34, UNDER New Orleans, LA

V 1971 Baltimore Colts 16 -2.5 Dallas Cowboys 13 36, UNDER Miami, FL

IV 1970 Kansas City Chiefs 23 +12 Minnesota Vikings 7 39, UNDER New Orleans, LA

III 1969 New York Jets 16 +18 Baltimore Colts 7 40, UNDER Miami, FL

II 1968 Green Bay Packers 33 -13.5 Oakland Raiders 14 43, OVER Miami, FL

I 1967 Green Bay Packers 35 -14 Kansas City Chiefs 10 NL Los Angeles, CA

**StarDust Bum** · 01-24-2011, 12:20 PM

NFL Betting: Packers, Steelers Super Bowl XLV

Surprised the Green Bay Packers opened as 2 ½-point Super Bowl favorites?

Yeah, so am I.

But bookmakers don’t want to be ambushed again with lopsided Green Bay money like they have during the past three weeks.

Bettors jumped on the Packers against Philadelphia in a wild-card matchup and have ridden Green Bay ever since, backing the Pack strong against Atlanta and in Sunday’s NFC title game versus Chicago.

The Packers opened minus three against the Bears before closing as 3 ½-point favorites. No road team had been favored by that much in a title game since the Los Angeles Rams played at Tampa Bay in 1979.

Just seven weeks ago the Packers lost to Detroit, 7-3. Green Bay’s playoff chances really looked dim when it lost the following week to New England. But Green Bay has won five in a row – all must-win games – to become the first NFC sixth-seed to reach the Super Bowl.

The Packers are the 10th different NFC team in 10 years to make the Super Bowl.

Pittsburgh has won two of the last five Super Bowls. The Steelers have won an NFL-high six Super Bowls.

This is the shortest Super Bowl spread since Baltimore buried the New York Giants, 34-7, in Super Bowl XXXX on Jan. 28 of 2001.

Both Pittsburgh and Green Bay are widely popular teams with recreational bettors.

After the Packers nearly blew a 14-0 lead, though, against the Bears and their third-string quarterback, Caleb Hanie, you have to wonder if some gamblers want off the Green Bay bandwagon?

Pittsburgh was an underdog four times during the regular season. The Steelers won three of those games.

Underdogs have cashed seven of the past nine times in the Super Bowl, including the past three.

The two weeks between games is a break for Green Bay. The Packers have played three consecutive road games. Green Bay has a more diversified offense than Pittsburgh so extra preparation time gives Packer coach Mike McCarthy a chance to work on how to attack Pittsburgh’s top-rated defense.

No team has been able to run on Pittsburgh’s No. 1 ranked rush defense. The Steelers are vulnerable in the secondary, however, and Aaron Rodgers has been hot accounting for 25 touchdowns in his last 10 games with four interceptions.

The pass-happy Packers should be helped more than the run-oriented Steelers with the matchup being played indoors on Field Turf at Cowboys Stadium.

Rodgers last played inside a dome two weeks ago at Atlanta and lit the Falcons up for 366 yards passing and three touchdowns while completing 31 of 36 in a 48-21 blowout victory.

Pittsburgh’s playoff victories have been closer, coming from behind to beat Baltimore, 31-24, and holding off the New York Jets, 24-19.

Still, the Steelers represent the tougher AFC and are far healthier than Green Bay, which had to put 15 players on injured reserve.

The Steelers have superstar defenders in safety Troy Polamalu and linebacker James Harrison along with star quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who is 10-2 in the playoffs.

Only Green Bay’s Hall of Fame quarterback Bart Starr at 9-1 has compiled a better postseason record for quarterbacks starting at least 10 playoff games than Roethlisberger.

The ‘over/under’ is 46. This total seems high at first glance considering Pittsburgh gave up 14.5 points per game, while Green Bay allowed the second-fewest points per contest at 15.0.

The ‘under’ has cashed in five of the last six Super Bowls. The only one that didn’t during this span was Super Bowl XLIII when Pittsburgh edged Arizona, 27-23, with the combined 50 points going ‘over’ the 46 ½-point total. There were 16 points scored during the final three minutes that pushed that total ‘over.’

**StarDust Bum** · 01-25-2011, 07:39 PM

Early Super Bowl Preview

For two teams that meet once every four years, the Steelers and Packers should feel oddly familiar with each other.
Start with the defenses. The 3-4 front, “Blitzburgh” identity originated in 1992 when Bill Cowher handed the defensive coordinator role to. . . Dom Capers, who now coordinates the Packers D. Both defenses rely on deception among the front seven to generate pressure and throw off opposing quarterbacks. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers will counter it with brains and escapability, while Ben Roethlisberger can beat defenses with brawn, an ability to shed blitzers and improvise school-yard style.

Both teams will likely struggle to run the ball. That’s in spite of a couple of hot running backs—Packers rookie James Starks has been a post-season revelation and Rashard Mendenhall is coming off an outstanding 121-yard effort against the Jets. The Steelers' front three of Casey Hampton, Brett Keisel and Ziggy Hood are all formidable run-stuffers. The Packers are also strong against the run—B.J. Raji is playing as well as any nose tackle in the NFL, and the Steelers could be without Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey, who suffered an ankle injury early in the AFC title game.

Separation in the secondary will less of an issue for the Packers receivers—the Steelers’ mediocre stable of cornerbacks will be tested by Green Bay’s four starting-caliber WRs, led by true superstar Greg Jennings. But the Steelers do have an ace up their sleeve in Troy Polamalu. With two weeks to rest an injured Achilles that was clearly bothering him in their two postseason wins, a healthy Polamalu freelancing in the secondary could give Rodgers just enough pause to allow OLBs James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley, who has 10 sacks in six career playoff games, to get to him. Green Bay’s offensive line is average, but when you play the Steelers, your tight ends—and more importantly, your running backs—have to be up to the task in pass protection. That could be an issue.

Rodgers faced five teams that use primarily 3-4 fronts. The Dolphins (5 sacks of Rodgers) and Redskins (4 sacks) each scored upsets over the Pack. The Jets (2 sacks) held them to nine points. The then-hapless Cowboys (one sack) are the only 3-4 defense that Rodgers torched. Tight end Andrew Quarless will be overmatched, as will Starks, who hasn’t seen anything like the Steelers’ blitz-happy scheme.

When the Steelers have the ball, budding superstar Tramon Williams or rookie speedster Sam Shields have a shot to contain burner Mike Wallace, who caught just one six-yard pass against the Jets. Charles Woodson can handle Hines Ward underneath. Pittsburgh once again needs big performances from rookies Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown, as well as tight end Heath Miller, who could stay in more often to help on OLB Clay Matthews. Roethlisberger is the most difficult QB to scheme for in the league because of his ability to improvise and turn broken plays into big gains. But officiating will have a huge impact. The Packers cornerbacks are physical and toe the line between incidental grabbing and penalties. That will be a factor when Big Ben extends a play and they try to cover for an extra second or two. On average, since 1992, there have been nearly two fewer flags (12.7 to 10.9) and 17 fewer penalty yards (103.3 to 86.3) in Super Bowl games than in regular-season matchups.

Speaking of regular-season matchups, these teams did play each other in Pittsburgh during the 2009 season. At the time the Steelers were reeling, coming off give straight losses, and were without Polamalu. As time expired, Roethlisberger threw a 19-yard TD pass to Wallace at the side of the end zone (in front of CB Josh Bell, who’s now out of the NFL) to give the Steelers a 37-36 victory. Rodgers threw for 383 yards and was sacked just once on 51 dropbacks, but he had a healthy Jermichael Finley catching a team-high nine passes for 74 yards (Finley is on injured reserve). Roethlisberger threw for 503 yards.

They were much different teams then. The return of Polamalu and the maturation of Rodgers can’t be underestimated. Those two will be at the center of a chess match that will decide Super Bowl XLV. This is a tight match-up, but the big-game experience of Roethlisberger and the Steelers gives Pittsburgh a slight edge.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-26-2011, 06:44 PM

Super Bowl Odds: Why the Steelers will win

Super Bowl betting action is finally upon us, and here at Don Best we are analyzing Super Bowl XLV odds. The Pittsburgh Steelers are short underdogs to the Green Bay Packers, but there are three tremendous reasons why the black and gold are going to add to their legendary run of success in Super Bowls.

Super Bowl Experience

The Steelers are trying to win their third Super Bowl over the course of the last six seasons, something that would really classify them as a dynasty. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has been at the helm for both of the previous two titles, and several of his teammates were on those teams as well.

Head coach Mike Tomlin became the youngest coach to win a Super Bowl two years ago when Pittsburgh knocked off the Arizona Cardinals, and now, he is the youngest coach to ever take a team to the Super Bowl twice.

If you add up all of the experience in Super Bowls on the Packers, all that you have is a game that DT Ryan Pickett played for the St. Louis Rams and a game that DB Charles Woodson played for the Oakland Raiders. Neither one has a ring to show for his efforts.

Wrecking Rodgers

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers was really a terror to both the Philadelphia Eagles and the Atlanta Falcons in the first two rounds of the playoffs, but he was kept at bay by the Chicago Bears last week in the NFC Championship Game. Defensive End Julius Peppers and his cohorts were able to get in the backfield a ton, particularly in the second half, and as a result Rodgers only ended up throwing for 244 yards with two picks and no passing scores.

You aren't going to find a team that can put pressure on an opposing quarterback like the Steelers can. Pittsburgh already has seven sacks in the playoffs, including five against Baltimore Ravens QB Joe Flacco in the AFC Divisional Round of the postseason. Green Bay's offensive line is going to have to have the game of its life to be able to stop up the Pittsburgh rush from its front seven, and if it doesn't, the Steelers are likely to beat the Super Bowl betting lines.

Close Game Syndrome

Though not every Super Bowl has been close, this is probably the most evenly matched championship game that we have had in years, and many are expecting a game that comes right down to the wire. These are situations in which the Steelers have excelled and the Packers have floundered all season long, and Green Bay really hasn't had the chance to get over that in the playoffs.

In games separated by three points or fewer this year, Green Bay went just 1-5, and the one win came at home against the Detroit Lions in a game that it should have won comfortably. Three of the five losses came against teams that were in the postseason, all of which were still standing in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.

Pittsburgh in the same situation of games with margins of victory of three points or fewer went 3-1, and proven that it can beat a team on the road in a pressure situation as it did when it beat the Baltimore Ravens on the road in the beginning of December.

We also have to keep in mind that in Week 1, with Big Ben suspended, the Steelers beat the Falcons in overtime 15-9 thanks to the TD run from RB Rashard Mendenhall in the extra frame.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-26-2011, 06:45 PM

Super Bowl Odds: Why the Packers will win

The Green Bay Packers will be victorious against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the classic matchup between two of the most storied franchises in NFL history.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants sent out an opening line of Green Bay minus 1 ½-points, but that’s quickly moved up to 2 ½ at offshore sportsbooks like Bookmaker.com.

The fact Green Bay is favored is surprising to some with Pittsburgh and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger winning two of the last five Super Bowls. The Packers haven’t even been in the Big Game since the 1997 season (losing to Denver), last winning in 1996.

Green Bay (13-6 SU, 12-7 against the spread) comes in as a wild-card, winning and ‘covering’ road games at Philadelphia (21-16), Atlanta (48-21) and Chicago (21-14). The first two were as one-point dogs and Chicago as 3 ½-point ‘chalk.’

The Packers have won five straight games overall (4-1 ATS), needing wins over the New York Giants (45-17) and Chicago (10-3) in the regular season to even make the playoffs.

Pittsburgh (14-4 SU, 12-6 ATS) is the AFC’s second seed and beat Baltimore (31-24) in a thrilling come-from-behind win in the Divisional Round. The Steelers held off the Jets (24-19) last week after leading 24-0. They were fortunate to host the conference title game instead of playing at the Patriots, after already losing to them at home (39-26).

Green Bay is the deserved favorite after proving itself on the road, while Pittsburgh has yet to leave the cozy confines of Heinz Field. Both fan bases travel well, so crowd support should be split.

Home Sweet Dome

The biggest matchup edge for either team is the Green Bay passing attack (258 YPG in the regular season, ranked fifth) against the Pittsburgh pass defense (214 YPG, ranked 12th). The Steelers run ‘D’ is easily top-ranked (63 YPG), so what New England did is spread out the defense with four and five receivers and use a quick passing attack.

Green Bay has four receivers with over 500 yards receiving (Greg Jennings, James Jones, Jordy Nelson and Donald Driver) and I expect the same offensive strategy used. Aaron Rodgers is very good at making quick decisions in the pocket like Tom Brady and should have lot of success throwing.

The even better news is the roof will be closed at Cowboys Stadium. Rodgers was nearly perfect (31-of-36, 366 yards, three TDs and no picks) when he played in Atlanta’s Georgia Dome two weeks ago. There is some talk that he hurt his shoulder last week and possibly had another concussion, but there’s no reason to think he won’t be fine.

Shuffle off from Buffalo

Normally it is bad luck to even say the name Buffalo in relation to the Super Bowl. After all, the Bills set the standard for futility by losing four consecutive Super Bowls in the 1990-1993 seasons.

However, Green Bay has benefited from the city, or at least the University of Buffalo. Rookie running back James Starks was drafted in the sixth round from there and has come out of nowhere in the playoffs (263 yards). The Packers can’t just line up against Pitt and consistently run the ball even with Starks, but he will be effective on draw plays from the spread formation.

Steelers’ offensive line problems

Pittsburgh has had injury problems on the offensive line all year. First, starting tackles Willie Colon and Max Starks were lost for the year. The latest news has center Maurkice Pouncey spraining his ankle against the Jets last week. Pouncey says he will definitely play, but how effective will he be considering he’s still on crutches now?

The Steelers let up six sacks against Baltimore in the Divisional Round. Terrell Suggs had three of them and caused a fumble return for a touchdown off Roethlisberger. Pitt did better in pass protection last week against New York, but Green Bay has 10 sacks this postseason and 47 in the regular season (ranked second behind Pittsburgh’s 48). Clay Matthews (17 total sacks) will be a terror versus Flozell Adams and Jonathan Scott.

NFC gaining momentum

The most dominant teams of this century have come from the AFC in New England, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis. They’ve combined for six of the last nine Super Bowl wins and are going for seven in 10.

However, the NFC has won two of the last three (New Orleans, NY Giants) and is 3-0 ATS in the last three. One of those games was Arizona losing to Pittsburgh (27-23) as 6 ½-point ‘dogs two years ago. Roethlisberger made the big touchdown pass to Santonio Holmes with 35 seconds left. This time, it will be the Steelers that come up a little short.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-28-2011, 02:33 PM

Super Bowl odds could move to a 'pick'

Late money on the Steelers is expected to push the odds down to nearly a pick.
The betting line for Super Bowl XLV is holding steady now at Green Bay minus 2 ½ with an ‘over/under’ of 44 ½.

But there are no guarantees it’s going to stay that way before the Feb. 6 kickoff between Green Bay and Pittsburgh.

Either Green Bay is going back up to being a field goal favorite, or enough Pittsburgh money will come in driving the number close to ‘pick.’

Professional sports bettor Ted Sevransky believes the game will end up being near the ‘pick’ range by post.

“I think we’ll see much more Pittsburgh money by kickoff,” he said. “The line will close much closer to three than to ‘pick’em.’

“Pittsburgh has won two of the last five Super Bowls. They (the Steelers) have 25 guys with rings.”

In Las Vegas, the town is painted Green Bay minus 2 ½ and 44 ½ on the total. There are some slight differences at offshore books. Bodog.com, for instance, has Green Bay minus 3. There also are some 44’s from an ‘over/under’ standpoint.

“I would grab a three if I could get it,” said Mike Seba, a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. “I don’t see anybody going to three. I could see Pittsburgh being the favorite.”

LVSC opened Green Bay minus 1 ½ and 44 ½.

“From a pure handicapping standpoint going into last weekend I would have made Pittsburgh 1 ½-point favorites,” Seba said. “The AFC still is slightly stronger than the NFC and (Ben) Roethlisberger has more big-game experience than (Aaron) Rodgers.

“The defenses are a wash, but at least Pittsburgh has a running game.”

It’s Seba’s suggestion that whatever side you like – Steelers or Packers – playing them on the money line is the way to go.

There has been strong early two-way action on the total. Several betting groups bet ‘over’ on the 44 ½ pushing it up to 45 ½ and even 46 at some places shortly after the line opened.

Since then the ‘over/under’ has been bet down to as low as 44. The Steelers and Packers ranked first and second, respectively, in scoring defense with Pittsburgh allowing 14.5 points per game and Green Bay giving up 15 points a game.

The Steelers rank second in total defense and first in run defense. Green Bay rates No. 5 in total defense and fifth in pass defense.

It’s rare to find a total this big with two strong defenses matched up even considering how good the quarterbacks are. The early ‘over’ money from a betting syndicate could be an attempt to strike a possible ‘middle’ of 45, a key number when betting NFL ‘over/unders.’

Oddsmakers often set a high total on the Super Bowl to adjust to the volume of public money, which is more lopsided on ‘over’ because people like to root for and not against.

The ‘under’ has cashed in five of the past six Super Bowls. The only one that went ‘over’ during this span was Arizona-Pittsburgh three years ago and it took 16 points during the final three minutes for that to happen.

Another reason to like ‘under’ is the doubtful status of Pittsburgh’s star center, Maurkice Pouncey, who has a high ankle sprain. Seba said Pouncey is worth half-a-point on the betting line.

Those favoring an ‘over’ point out the fast track inside Cowboys Stadium. The Dallas Cowboys went ‘over’ in all eight of their home contests.

“It is life and death to get an ‘under’ nowadays with all the rule changes slanted to help offenses – can’t touch the quarterback, can’t touch wide receivers.” Seba said.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-30-2011, 12:49 AM

Super Bowl Odds: Steelers plus the points

Are the Pittsburgh Steelers the NFL equivalent of the NBA’s San Antonio Spurs? While the popular debate about who’s the best team of the decade has gone from this team to that team over the years, the Steelers and the Spurs have been the guys who never get the glory but often get the ring.

Green Bay is a 2½-point favorite with Sports Interaction in Super Bowl XLV but this is the Steelers’ third Super Bowl appearance in six years, and they won the other two. Whatever the Packers throw at them, whatever happens on the big day, the Steelers will have seen it before. Experience counts for a lot, at the Super Bowl or in life.

Also, while Green Bay’s is the more potent offense you get the feeling that the Steelers’ offense is more robust. That they’ll be able to get up every time the Packers’ smack them down – and this will be a tough game, make no mistake about that.

Aaron Rodgers’ is an elusive quarterback, a running threat who can turn around a broken play, but he risks injury every time he does it because as quarterback he’s just too valuable to lose.

One of the reasons for James Starks’ rise to prominence in the playoffs was because Green Bay released that having Rodgers as their primary running threat was like using a thoroughbred racehorse to pull a cart. When the Steelers come for him, will Rodgers be able to take the punishment as well as Roethlisberger can?

Experience, the points, and Ben Roethlisberger’s overdue coronation as a future Hall of Famer make Pittsburgh plus the 2½ points with Sports Interaction the pick for Super Bowl XLV.

Vegas didn’t set a total for the first Super Bowl, but results have been even for the 43 others – 21 went 'over' the total, 22 'under.' Sports Interaction has set the total for Super Bowl XLV at 44½, one point less than the historical average of 45½. Four of the last five Super Bowls have been 'under,' and that looks like a trend. 'Under' 44½ total points in Super Bowl XLV is the pick.

MVP is one of the great bets on a Super Bowl. If you dig deep enough you can have a really good win for a small bet. Over half the Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks, so backing either Aaron Rodgers at +175 or Ben Roethlisberger at +350 doesn’t present that much value. Three of the last six MVPs were wide receivers and the Steelers’ Mike Wallace is good value at +1600 to make it four out of seven.

Finally – in honour of the venue, Sports Interaction has action on whether or not a live ball will hit the scoreboard in Cowboys stadium at any point during the game.

The sheer size of the scoreboard was an issue at the start of the season when Tennessee’s AJ Trapasso hit it with a punt in preseason, but it became less a talking point when it turned out that Dallas wasn’t very good this year. But this is the Super Bowl, and players like footnotes in history. Ten will get you eighty with Sports Interaction if a live ball hits the Jerry-tron during the course of the game.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-30-2011, 09:33 PM

Books are ready for action

January 28, 2011

The Las Vegas sportsbooks are buzzing with action a week to go before the Super Bowl, both from those making bets and the others just standing around looking at the board. Just about everyone who has checked in this week has made it a priority to stroll over to the book and see what the line is. Some of them make some bets while others just use it as a topic of conversation knowing they will bet later, probably closer to their departure.
The visitors who wait like to use the game as a topic of conversation wherever they go hoping to hear something, from anyone, during their stay that sways them one way or another. The locals in town are waiting for something to happen one way or another, but the only thing moving right now has been the total dropping from 46 to 44 ½ while the game itself still has the packers minus-2 ½.

Because of that waiting game by many of the bettors, a few of the sportsbook Directors are questioning their initial thoughts that this Super Bowl could possibly surpass the all-time state record of $94.5 million in handle set in 2006 between the Steelers and Seahawks, a time when money was freely spent before settling in our current economic climate. The last two years under that climate has seen handle at $82.7 and $81.5 million.

According to reports, at least $1 million is already in the kitty early on as the MGM resorts properties took a large wager on the Packers at minus-2 ½, prompting only a .10 cents move to -2 ½ (-120). For MGM Resorts to have accepted a wager that large, it’s an indication that it came from a house player with a large line of credit, meaning that it wasn’t a Sharp who made the wager, but rather just a guy with lots of money who wants to make his Super Bowl experience a little more interesting.

That’s exactly what this game brings to Las Vegas. It’s not on the same level as the gentleman with the large wager, but what it does is bring everyone to the sportsbook -- who normally don’t wager -- to make a bet, while also making the casual bettor up his normal wager amount. It’s kind of like Christmas and Easter at church, which always brings out those with faith on least those two special days.

Aside from the wager, most sportsbooks are reporting great two-way action thus far which has kept the spread at a stand still. Most of the Directors agree that they believe the late money will come on Pittsburgh, but are holding ground until it happens. The worst case scenario for the books would be if Green Bay money came in stronger and they were eventually forced to move to minus-3 making them vulnerable to get sided (paying on one side and refunding the other).

Money Line Value?

The Super Bowl underdog money-line never gives fair value, thanks in part to having some rough days at the hands of the Patriots vs. Rams, Giants vs. Patriots and Denver vs. Green Bay. Even though those Super Bowls had double-digit spreads with giant money-lines, the sportsbooks still have to book on the side of caution knowing that the majority of the public loves to get that plus-money backing the underdog.

On a normal 2-½-point spread during the regular season, the conversion chart shows that a game should be about -145/+125. The shade on this game is -130/+110 at most books which is a combination of both expecting more Steelers money to come in and knowing that a large portion of Pittsburgh bets will be on the money-line.

Very few bettors will touch the Packers money-line at this juncture even though the line is very fair to what the spread is. The casual bettor doesn’t want lay more to get less and would rather lay the points while the Sharp also feels they can wait it out for a better price, either because of extended action on underdog money or that the Steelers money actually does come in later.

The Sportsbooks Ultimate Wish

Two of the most profitable Super Bowl wins for the house occurred when the favorite won but didn’t cover. The top all-time win for the State was in 2005 with the Patriots beating the Eagles that netted $15.4 million in win at a 17% hold. Despite Donavan McNabb throwing up late in the game, he managed to get the back-door cover late that killed all the bets on the Patriots as 7-point favorites.

The year prior, Carolina gave the Patriots all they could handle as 7-point underdogs, eventually losing 32-29, but covering. The win netted the State $12.4 million in win for a 15.3% hold.

Because this years spread is so low -- one of the lowest ever -- the ideal scenario happening again seems unlikely. However, the last time these two teams played, it was a 1-point Steelers win in a 37-36 shootout during Week 15 last season.

Packers winning by 1-point this year would be the ultimate scenario for the Nevada sportsbooks.

Total Dropping

Maybe it’s because five of the last six Super Bowls have gone ‘under’ the number or maybe it’s because this game features the first and third ranked defenses in the league, but I have hard time understanding why this game is being bet ‘under’ with such conviction.

Yes, we’ve seen Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers look average in three games against the Bears and the Steelers figure to game plan their model similarly, but I can’t get that 2009 Week 15 game out of my head where the two teams combined for 973 yards. The two teams exchanged blows throughout, with both teams alternating scores in each half.

The more I think about how good the Steelers top ranked run defense is, the more I think the Packers may scrap the run game a little bit and get the Steelers into a tempo they don’t like to play.

The time to prepare angle has worked in favor of defenses the last few Super Bowls and we just saw the National Championship game between two high powered collegiate teams be stifled due to weeks of defensive preparation, but I don’t see it here.

Propositions

The Super Bowl props are slowly coming out around the city as of Friday and there is a mad scramble by many to get their edge on middle opportunities before the sportsbooks all settle at about the same number. The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book released their props Thursday night, but wait to offer a sheet until a day later just to avoid copy cats.

We’ll have a summary of some of the more creative bets in town early next week.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-30-2011, 09:34 PM

Running to a Title?

January 29, 2011

Super Bowl Intangibles: The Ground Game
It’s pretty common knowledge in football that winning the rushing battle usually means winning the football game. That is the case throughout the regular season, the playoffs and ultimately, the Super Bowl. Obviously, picking which team is going to win the rushing battle is not the easiest of tasks since if it was, everyone would be likely winning money on sports’ most wagered-on game. Let’s do some breakdowns and see who has the best shot to win the line of scrimmage for Super Bowl XVL.

Let’s take a look at some history first. Winning the rushing game usually means winning the Super Bowl but what exactly is the likeliness of that? Of the first 44 Super Bowls, the winning team had more rushing yards in 36 of those games which is pretty significant. More importantly for us and for the purpose of this article, the team with the greater rushing yard total is 30-12-2 ATS (71.4%). So not only predicting the rushing winner gives us the outright winner but it likely gives us a spread cover as well.

The Super Bowl winner has averaged 146.8 yards per game through the first 44 big games while the losing team has averaged just 86.1 YPG. It can be argued that the winning team is likely sitting on the lead and piling on meaningless rushing yards while the trailing team is forced to abandon the run. Sure that is the case some of the time however looking at YPC averages strengthens the rushing theory. The winners have averaged over 3.96 YPC while the losing team has averaged 3.65 YPC.

The Super Bowl winner has been held to fewer than 100 yards only eight times in the history of the big game, with this surprisingly taking place the last three years. Seven times has seen the winner gain over 200 yards and its no surprise that the average margin of victory in those games was 20.3 points per games however this has not taken place since Super Bowl XXII in 1988. The most yards ever gained by a Super Bowl loser were 166 yards by Buffalo in Super Bowl XXV against the Giants.

Fast forward to this season and you’ll see that the Steelers averaged 120.3 YPG during the regular season which was 11th in the league while their 4.1 YPC average was good for a tie for 18th. When you think of Pittsburgh, you think of smash-mouth football but this season’s YPG average was their highest since 2007. It was relatively the same in home/road games but against the NFC, it averaged 141.8 YPG on 4.8 YPC compared to 113.1 YPG on 3.8 YPC against the AFC. The problem was in the redzone where they were just 110-210 (1.9 YPC).

The Packers style on offense is much different and that showed in the rushing numbers. Green Bay averaged only 100.4 YPG on 3.8 YPC, which were 24th and tied for 25th respectively. Green Bay actually averaged more yards per attempt in losses than in wins (4.3 YPC to 3.6 YPC) but the real surprise is the team breakdown. The Packers gained 157 yards on 17 carries against the Redskins this season. They averaged more than 3.9 YPC against only one other team (Philadelphia - 4.0 YPC).

Green Bay was pretty solid defensively against the run as it allowed 114.9 YPG during the regular season which was 18th in the NFL. However, the Packers allowed 4.7 YPC which was tied for 28th in the NFL. That seems like it could be a real problem. Similar to prior years, the Pittsburgh rushing defense was extremely tough to move as the Steelers were the best in the NFL as they allowed only 62.8 YPG on 3.0 YPC. Based on the regular season, Pittsburgh has a clear edge on that side of the ball.

The breakout of running back James Starks against the Eagles has given the Packers the much needed postseason running game. Or has it? Starks has been very average since that game and the Packers are averaging fewer yards per attempt in the postseason than they did in the regular season (3.7 YPC to 3.8 YPC). Pittsburgh is averaging a half-yard more in the playoffs than Green Bay (118.5 YPG to 118 YPG) but is averaging only 3.2 YPC. Facing the Ravens and Jets (5th and 3rd in rushing defense) will do that to a team however.

In the regular season and postseason combined, Pittsburgh gains more YPC than it allows (4.0 YPC to 3.0 YPC), gains more YPC than Green Bay (4.0 YPC to 3.8 YPC) and allows less YPC than Green Bay (3.0 YPC to 4.5 YPC). That is fairly significant. Based on everything above, we have to give the edge to the Steelers in the rushing game but remember last Super Bowl when the Colts won the rushing battle but lost the game so there definitely are exceptions. Will it be another exception this year or will the trend hold true?

**StarDust Bum** · 01-30-2011, 09:35 PM

PIT O-Line vs. GB D-Line

January 27, 2011

With all the focus on the big names and potential firepower for Super Bowl XLV in Dallas, the game within the trenches shouldn't be overlooked. There are plenty of storylines involving each offensive and defensive line as the Packers and Steelers prepare for this contest on February 6. Our comprehensive breakdown begins with Green Bay's defensive line trying to bust through and rattle the Pittsburgh front.

Steelers' offensive line

When you think of Pittsburgh, the first things that come to mind are Ben Roethlisberger, Hines Ward, and a vicious defense. The offensive line isn't what sticks out to may football fans, but this unit has done their best with several injuries to help get the Steelers to this round.

The big story heading into the Super Bowl in regards to the offensive line is the status of Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey. The former Florida Gator standout suffered a high ankle sprain in the first half of the AFC Championship victory over the Jets. The injury opened the door for Doug Legursky, who started the first four games of the season at right guard on this makeshift line. Legurksy's only flaw in the AFC Title Game was his manhandled snap to Roethlisberger on the goal line, resulting in a safety for the Jets. If Pouncey (who is listed as questionable) can't go, Legursky will be the anchor of the offensive line.

This unit allowed 43 sacks in the regular season, the eighth-most in the NFL. Past Pouncey, left tackle Jonathan Scott is another key on this line after getting moved to the left side in November. The season-ending neck injury to Max Starks at Cincinnati forced Scott, a Dallas native, to start the final eight games of the season. Left guard Chris Kemoeatu has been a consistent part of this offensive line for each of the last three seasons, while veteran Flozell Adams started all 16 games in the regular season at right tackle.

The Ravens were able to sack Roethlisberger six times in the Divisional Playoffs, but the Jets' defense only broke through for two sacks of Big Ben in the AFC Championship. The Steelers ranked 11th in the regular season in rushing offense with 120 yards/game, while the running game churned out 166 yards to beat the Jets last Sunday.

Packers' defensive line

The 3-4 defense employed by coordinator Dom Capers has produced fantastic results this season by allowing 309 yards/game (5th in league) and 15 ppg (2nd in league). Green Bay limited 11 of its last 13 opponents to 17 points or less to trail only Pittsburgh in the points allowed department. The key for Super Bowl XLV is if the Packers' front three can slow down a mobile quarterback in Roethlisberger, while trying to exploit a makeshift offensive line.

B.J. Raji had the game-winning touchdown for the Packers in the 21-14 victory over the Bears with his interception return to clinch the NFC Title. The former Boston College standout recorded 39 tackles and 6 ½ sacks at nose tackle in his second season to help anchor the Packers' defensive front. Cullen Jenkins finished second on the team in sacks with seven (behind Clay Matthews' 13 ½), even though the ex-Central Michigan defensive end missed the final four regular season games with a calf injury.

The third member of the Packers' defensive line is Ryan Pickett, who made seven tackles in the three playoff victories from the other defensive end position. Green Bay's 47 sacks in the regular season were tied for second with Oakland and San Diego, while finishing behind their Super Bowl opponent by one for tops in the league in that category. The rushing defense saw a drastic improvement in the playoffs by holding all three teams to 83 yards or less (Chicago - 83, Atlanta - 45, Philadelphia - 81) after allowing 115 yards/game in the regular season.

Who has the edge?

With Pouncey likely to miss the game due to the high ankle sprain, the different pieces that have been interchanged in the Steelers' offense line won't be a positive. The Packers' defense has been strong all season long and with Jenkins healthy once again, Green Bay should step up in this matchup and rough up Roethlisberger.

Edge: Packers

**StarDust Bum** · 01-30-2011, 09:36 PM

GB O-Line vs. PIT D-Line

January 29, 2011

The Steelers' offensive line has dealt with injuries all season, capped off by center Maurkice Pouncey's high ankle sprain. On the flip side, the Packers as a team have been hit the injury bug with 16 players placed on injured reserve. The only unit that's stayed fairly healthy is the offensive line, with veteran right tackle Mark Tauscher as the only starter to be lost to a shoulder injury back in October.

The loss of running back Ryan Grant in Week 1 at Philadelphia nearly ruined the ground game, but the Packers have stayed afloat and maintained a nice balance offensively through the playoffs. After three straight road victories, the Packers need one more solid performance against a Steelers' defensive line that leads the league in stopping the run.

Packers' offensive line

The line is anchored by Pro Bowler Chad Clifton, as the left tackle is the primary blind side blocker for Aaron Rodgers. Past Clifton, left guard Daryn Colledge and center Scott Wells are two veterans that have helped stabilize this offensive line. Bryan Bulaga took over for the injured Tauscher in Week 5 as he was thrust into the fold at right tackle after getting selected 23rd overall out of Iowa in last April's draft.

The running game ranked 24th in the regular season at a shade over 100 yards/game, but the emergence of rookie James Starks in the playoffs has boosted this unit. We know about the effectiveness of Rodgers and the passing game, but the play of Starks over the last three games has given this offensive line confidence. Starks rushed for 123 yards in the Wild Card round against Philadelphia, followed by a combined 140 yards in the victories over Atlanta and Chicago.

The Green Bay offensive line allowed 38 sacks this season, which was tied for 11th in the league. Rodgers ranked third in the league in rushing for quarterbacks with 356 yards, behind Philadelphia's Michael Vick and Tampa Bay's Josh Freeman. The Packers' signal-caller rushed for a pair of touchdowns in the last two playoff victories, which will be another weapon in the arsenal of this Green Bay offense in Super Bowl XLV.

Steelers' defensive line

The Packers will no doubt have their hands full trying to rush on this Steelers' defense, which finished tops in the league stopping the run at 62 yards/game. Pittsburgh employs the same 3-4 defense as Green Bay does, with coordinator Dick LeBeau consistently being able to plug in the right pieces to be successful year in and year out.

Defensive end Brett Keisel was named to the Pro Bowl for the first time in his nine-year career, while making 33 tackles, including 11 in the playoffs. Casey Hampton clogs the middle for the Steelers, as the standout nose tackle recorded 20 tackles and one sack. Both Keisel and Hampton are each looking for their third Super Bowl title with Pittsburgh after being key parts of the previous championship teams in 2005 and 2008.

The third member of the defensive line is Ziggy Hood, who made several key tackles in the playoff wins over the Jets and Ravens. Pittsburgh held Baltimore to just 35 yards rushing on 18 carries, while holding Ray Rice to 32 yards for the second time this season. In fact, Rice's three lowest rushing totals this season came against the Steelers, including 20 yards back in Week 4.

The Jets ran for 70 yards on 22 carries in the AFC Championship, as Pittsburgh has allowed one 100-yard rusher in the last 50 games (coincidentally, Rice last season). To further prove how impressive this rush defense is, the 62.8 yards/game allowed by Pittsburgh is the third-lowest since the merger back in 1970.

Who has the edge?

The Packers have done a valiant job plugging in Starks over the last few weeks since not having a semblance of a running game with Grant out. Green Bay's offensive line has protected Rodgers, while the former Cal standout is nimble enough to scramble for first downs. However, it's incredibly tough to deny what the Steelers' defense, especially the defensive line has accomplished this season in stopping the run.

Edge: Steelers

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