The Bum's SuperBowl XLV Best Bets + New, Notes, Trend Etc. !

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GB LBs vs. PIT RBs

January 30, 2011


For those of you that are faithfully following our Super Bowl XLV coverage, you’ll know that we have broken down the battles in the trenches. Now it’s time to shift our focus to the men in the backfield and the guys that make up the second-tier of the defensive unit. So who will have the edge between the Steelers’ running backs or Green Bay’s vaunted young set of linebackers.

Packers’ Linebackers

Linebackers are one of the most important groups of players that you’ll find on the defensive side of the ball. It just so happens that they have one of the most impressive groups of stoppers in the game right now.

Nobody should be surprised by the fact that the Packers are in the Super Bowl when you have a defense that was in the Top 5 in total yards allowed (309.1 yards per game). Yet they were ranked in the middle of the NFL when it comes to stopping the run (114.9 YPG) during the regular season. That (and a boatload of injuries) no doubt helped put the Pack behind the eight-ball to make the playoffs.

Once Green Bay got into the postseason, its run defense improved greatly. This is a unit that is second only to the Steelers in stopping the run in the playoffs, giving up 69.7 YPG on the ground. They were also able to force teams into punting the ball back by letting the opposition to convert 36 percent of their third downs. And the main reason for that comes from one of the youngest quartet of linebackers in the league thanks to using a 3-4 defensive scheme.

Clay Matthews Jr., A.J. Hawk, Desmond Bishop and Erik Walden all start for the Packers and all of them were drafted no earlier than 2006. This group was ready to make a push to come to North Texas after dealing with six games against playoff teams during the regular season (Philadelphia, two against Chicago, New York Jets, Atlanta and New England). In those six games, this unit accounted for 118 tackles, 8 ½ sacks, six tipped passes and one forced fumble.

Hawk and Bishop have been the top guys for the Pack to stop offenses this year with 111 and 103 total tackles during the regular season, respectively. Plus, Matthews found his way to the quarterback 14 times this year to lead the team. It’s no wonder why the second year man out of Southern California is making his second straight Pro Bowl.

During the postseason, this quartet of ‘backers were responsible for 52 tackles, 5 ½ sacks and a pair of forced fumbles. 22 of those tackles came in the 21-14 win over the Bears to clinch the NFC championship.

All is not happiness for the Packers though as Walden is listed as “questionable” for the Super Bowl after injuring his ankle against Chicago. That means we’re going to most likely see a lot of Rob Francois in his place. The Boston College product put in three tackles against the Bears in the NFC title game.

Steelers’ Running Backs

When you hear about an offensive line that has allowed 43 quarterback sacks, you’d think they’re just fat and lazy. But that thinking is null and void when you realize Pittsburgh’s rolling with Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers’ running game is alive and well, picking up 120.2 YPG on the ground to rank 11th in the NFL.

That strong running game has continued into the playoffs as Pittsburgh ranks second with 118.5 rushing YPG through two games. And in just the AFC championship game alone, they outrushed the Jets 135-1 at halftime.

The Steelers are pulling in those numbers with Rashard Mendenhall in the backfield. Mendenhall ran for 1,241 yards this season. And he has only gotten better in the postseason, rushing for 167 yards in two games, with 121 yards coming against the Jets. Mendenhall hasn’t been a real factor for the passing game, averaging only just 7.3 receiving yards per game.

While Mendenhall is the only running back worth his weight for Pittsburgh, he isn’t its only rushing threat. Roethlisberger is well known for his ability to run out of danger. That’s also one of the reasons he gets sacked so many times. Big Ben ran for 21 yards and a touchdown in the AFC title game, converting some big third downs with his legs. He is going to be a very tough man to tackle for the Packers’ collection of linebackers.

Who has the edge?

Mendenhall has shown himself to be a great running back this season, but he’s going to be running through an offensive line that will be without center Maurkice Pouncey. That means he’s going to have to do more work to gain positive yardage. And that will be a very tough job with a young and agile group of linebackers. Roethlisberger is an X-factor in this game (always is), but more than manageable. I believe that Green Bay holds a very, very slight edge.

Edge: Packers

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Super Bowl XLV Overview

January 26, 2011


There is something fitting about any Super Bowl featuring Green Bay and Pittsburgh. That’s probably because they’ve each been involved in so many of them. Indeed, in the first 44 "Supes," Packer or Steeler teams were featured in more than one-quarter (12) of them. Although, for such prominent pro football franchises, they do not have much of a history against one another.

In all of our publishing years, there are only a handful of meetings between the teams that stand out in our memories, and none of them particularly significant. The teams would only occasionally duel in the days of the pre-merger NFL, with Green Bay playing in the old Western Conference, and Pittsburgh in the old Eastern alignment. And since the Steelers never appeared in a playoff or championship game until after the 1970 merger, there has never been a title game matchup between the two.

Interestingly, one previous meeting serves as a little-known footnote in NFL history. Few probably realize that the last team to beat a Vince Lombardi-coached Packer side was actually Pittsburgh. And we’re not talking about the Chuck Noll Steelers, either. No, this was the pre-merger Pittsburgh, lovable loser of the NFL, the Chicago Cubs of the gridiron (hard as that might be for some modern-day fans to fathom), the poor sisters of the league who would absorb heavy beatings almost every year. And the late ‘60s were a particularly desolate period of time for the Steeler franchise, playing those days in old Pitt Stadium after spending many seasons cramped into the Pirates’ old Forbes Field, which was essentially just down the street at the edge of the Pitt campus.

After posting a couple of winning records in 1962 & ‘63 under HC Buddy Parker, staying in the hunt for the Eastern Conference title until the final day of the regular season in the latter year, the Steelers went into a steep decline despite the move from Forbes Field to Pitt Stadium, a real football facility, in 1964. Parker’s trade of top WR Buddy Dial to the Cowboys, however, would inadvertently wreck the offense that year, as rookie replacement Paul Martha (who played his college ball at the same Pitt Stadium) was a bust as a wideout before later becoming a serviceable defensive back. The Steelers slipped to 5-9 in 1964, but that was good compared to what happened in 1965. That year, Parker resigned just two weeks before the beginning of the season, famously stating, "I can’t win with this bunch of stiffs." Promoted assistant Mike Nixon then oversaw a brutal 2-12 campaign in which young QB Bill Nelsen, playing on a sore pair of knees, took unspeakable punishment behind a sieve-like offensive line, while top RB John Henry Johnson, a 1000-yard rusher the previous year, was sidelined almost the entire season by a bad knee.

Bill Austin, who had coached on Lombardi’s Green Bay staffs in the early ’60s and most recently on Harland Svare’s Rams staff in ‘65, was hired to replace Nixon and turn things around in 1966. But despite the presence of a couple of promising young weapons on the offensive side (TE John Hilton and punishing RB Willie Asbury) and an occasional ability to light up the scoreboard, the Steelers continued to lose, posting a 5-8-1 mark in ‘66. It was more of the same in ‘67, as the Steelers limped home at 4-9-1, with QB Nelsen again limited by knee problems, forcing Austin to use former TCU QB Kent Nix as the starter. Nelsen, in a fortuitous bit of luck for him, was traded to the contending Browns the following year for QB Dick Shiner, who would share duties with Nix in ‘68. Thus liberated from Pittsburgh, Nelsen would soon blossom as a top-flight NFL QB, supplanting Frank Ryan as the Cleveland starter and leading the Brownies to back-to-back NFL title games.

The Steelers, however, continued to lose, although they maintained their reputation as a no-nonsense bunch that preferred the physical nature of the sport as opposed to the more chic passing game that was being popularized around the league. One of the noted toughs from the Pittsburgh defenses of that era was ornery LB Bill Saul, a rugged, toothless bruiser from Penn State who was featured in one of NFL Films’ first memorable specials. Saul was so tough that he would chide opponents such as the Browns and their QB Frank Ryan to play some "real football" and quit throwing the ball around the yard. That rugged reputation of Steeler teams is one thing that has endured from the dark ages of Pittsburgh football. But the days were indeed dark in the late ‘60s, especially ‘68, when the team collapsed to another 2-12 mark and prompted the dismissal of Austin, with one of Don Shula’s trusted aides from Baltimore, Chuck Noll, the next coach to get the assignment of rebuilding the Steelers franchise.

We all know what followed, although success didn’t come overnight. Noll’s first team in 1969 finished 1-13, bringing Pittsburgh’s 5-year mark at the end of the ‘60s to an odorous 14-54-2. It wasn’t until the merger, the bold move to the AFC with the Browns and Colts, and the opening of new Three Rivers Stadium in 1970 that the Steelers began to catch an updraft.

Owner Art Rooney was always gracious in defeat, however, with an attitude that "somebody has to lose games in this league." Which effectively endeared the Rooney family to a generation of football fans who were genuinely thrilled when the Steelers finally emerged as a force in the early ‘70s. If anyone deserved a taste of victory, it was Mr. Rooney.

Still, many pro football historians have forgotten Lombardi’s last regular-season game as Green Bay’s coach on December 17, 1967. The game essentially mean nothing to the Packers, who had already wrapped up the newly-created Central Division crown, and would be hosting the winner of that afternoon’s Colts-Rams game for the Western Conference championship the next week in Milwaukee. And it was that rock-bottom, late ’60s version of the Steelers, who we discussed previously, providing the opposition that day at Lambeau Field.

Ironically, the powerful Packers would never even lead in that contest. Lombardi began the game with most of his starters in place, but QB Bart Starr, hit as he was throwing, was intercepted by Pittsburgh DE Ben McGee, who rumbled 21 yards for the game’s first score. Lombardi then began to substitute liberally, eventually letting San Diego State rookie Don Horn, the Pack’s third-string QB, play from midway in the 2nd Q onward. But a 22-yard TD run by Steeler RB Earl Gros put Pittsburgh up 14-3 in the 2nd Q. Then, late in the 3rd Q, another Steeler defensive lineman, this time DT Chuck Hinton, would score another TD on a 27-yard fumble return to put the Steelers up 24-10. Horn tried to rally the Pack, and despite a couple of TDs from rookie RB Travis Williams, Green Bay ran out of time.

Lombardi would thus enter his last postseason on the heels of a 24-17 defeat to a 4-9-1 team whose QB, the aforementioned Kent Nix, passed for only 72 yards on 12 completions, with the likes of RBs Earl Gros and Cannonball Butler doing most of the Pittsburgh damage on the ground. It was a collection of Steelers hardly to be confused with the distinguished Colts, Browns, Rams, or Cowboys sides of the era. Although Lombardi had yet to announce his future intentions at that point (he would wait until after the Super Bowl vs. the Raiders to step down as head coach and remain as general manager, with assistant Phil Bengston promoted to replace him on the sidelines), most unsuspecting fans would hardly have guessed that Lombardi lost his last regular-season game as Packers coach to a team as bad as the ‘67 Steelers. And to this point, that’s probably been the most eventful meeting in the long history between these two storied franchises.

Although this Super Bowl XLV matchup has a definite old-time NFL feel to it, we are again denied the added intrigue of rekindling the long-ago AFL-NFL feud, something we haven’t been treated to in the Super Bowl since the Giants and Patriots squared off three years ago. And as much as the Super Bowl has become a cultural phenomenon, the modern-day editions of the game lack some of the mystery of the first four meetings prior to the merger, days when the AFL-NFL rivalry really boiled.

The rival leagues, of course, did not meet until the first Super Bowl on January 15, 1967 at the L.A. Coliseum, featuring the AFL champion Chiefs and the NFL champion Packers. (Ed. Note: That game was indeed referred to as the "Super Bowl" in almost all media outlets, although it would be a few years before the name would be officially attached to the game.) But we have always believed the real flashpoints of the old rivalry came in the subsequent preseasons of 1967, ‘68, and ‘69, when interleague action highlighted the summer schedule. This past August, we ran a detailed recounting of those "little Super Bowls" in the late ‘60s. It’s worth noting that the late ‘60s Steelers were a willing participant in preseason matchups vs. AFL teams in those days, although the Packers, completely of Lombardi’s doing in 1967 & ‘68, disdained those summer interleague matchups in a display of haughty arrogance. Even George Halas’ Chicago Bears participated, although they might have wished they hadn’t when getting routed by the Chiefs, 66-24, in the AFL’s biggest win in the summer of ‘67. By 1968, AFL teams had forged an advantage over their NFL rivals in the summer series that hardly resembled the scripted, sterile preseason games we have become used to over the past several decades. And there might not have ever been a more-hyped preseason game than the 1969 Jets-Giants game that took place at the Yale Bowl in New Haven, Connecticut, the first time the Big Apple rivals ever squared off on the gridiron. The buildup to the game was almost Super Bowl-like, which suited Joe Namath and the Jets just fine after their shock win over the Colts 7½ months earlier in Miami. As they did against Baltimore the preceding January, the Jets struck a blow for the AFL and a broadside hit to the NFL establishment when routing the G-Men, 37-14. Those who recall the late ‘60s remember those preseason interleague games with fondness, even if it was beneath Lombardi’s Packers to participate.

Super Bowls have entered a more exciting era since the mid ‘90s after an extended period of one-sided results that were mostly dominated by the NFC champions. From the 1984 thru 1996 seasons, NFC teams won every Super Bowl, many of them by lopsided margins. Blowout results were so expected in Super Bowl games during most of that era that oddsmakers were forced to adjust pointspreads just to address the phenomenon. Hard as it is to believe, the biggest pointspread of the entire 1994 NFL season came in Super Bowl XXIX, when the price on the favored 49ers ballooned to 18½ over the underdog Chargers. When San Francisco ended up covering that game more handily than the 49-26 final might suggest, it also marked the an end of an era when routs were the rule, rather than the exception, in Super Bowl games. In the 16 years since, almost every Super Bowl has been competitive and filled with varying degrees of drama, save for perhaps Denver’s comfy win over Atlanta in XXXIII, Baltimore’s romp past the Giants in XXXV, and Tampa Bay’s cruise past Oakland in XXXVII.

Having been around for all of the Super Bowls (with the first one, in January 1967, the only one I attended in person), we thought that we were as qualified as anybody to "rate" the past Super Bowl games. Which we finally did five years ago, updating the story to account for new Super Bowls in every year since. Interestingly, and echoing our previous point about the games becoming more exciting since the mid ‘90s, our top five all-time Super Bowl games were each contested in the past decade, with the only "older" Super Bowls in our top ten including those pair of Steelers-Cowboys gems in the late ‘70s, and San Francisco’s late 20-16 win over Cincinnati in January of ‘89. We'll have an updated version of our Super Bowl list next week.

The recent trend of competitive Super Bowls is reflected in improved performance of the underdogs, who have now covered 7 of the last 9 in the "Supe" after an extended run of chalk-dominated results prior. Overall, SB favorites still lead underdogs by a 22-19-2 count (with one pick ‘em in SB XVI between the 49ers and Bengals), although that chalk edge has been shrinking in recent years. And even though we have been treated to a number of thrillers in recent Super Bowls, remember that half of them (22 of 44), including last year’s 31-17 Saints win over the Colts, have still been decided by 14 points or more, which relates to many historical results in pre-Super Bowl title games when lopsided scores were also commonplace. Championship-game blowouts didn’t begin with Joe Montana’s ‘84 49ers or the Super Bowl Shuffle ‘85 Bears; their frequency extends back to the earliest days of the league, with several eras featuring more of them than others (such as the mid ‘50s, when a succession of NFL title games featured scorelines of 56-10, 38-14, 47-7, and 59-14). Note, too, that the all-time NFL blowout occurred in the 1940 title game, when George Halas’ Bears overwhelmed the Washington Redskins, 73-0, in a game that featured eight interceptions by Chicago defenders!

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Inside the Super Stats

January 29, 2011


Handicapping the Super Bowl takes on a different perspective each year.

Granted, there are a myriad of statistics, angles and trends we can draw from but the bottom line is the personalities of the teams are equally important when it comes to isolating the eventual winner.

Safe to say that sports handicappers do not hold psychiatric degrees, let’s take a quick look at some of the more interesting trends that have occurred in Super Bowls past. All results are ATS (Against the Spread) in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, unless noted otherwise.

Faux Favorites

The public loves backing favorites and when it comes to the Super Bowl it’s like putting kids in a candy store.

As a result, the public today is badly in need of new dental health care coverage. That’s because overloading on these super-sweet favorites has proven to be a decaying experience, with favorites sporting a 19-11 SU and 12-16-2 ATS record, including 4-9-2 ATS the last 15 games.

Favorites (Green Bay) taking on opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins are just 6-13-2 ATS.

Super Bowl chalk taking on an opponent that did not cover its championship game by 12 or more points are 8-6 SU and 3-12-1 ATS.

The last 16 favorites to score 30 or less points are 2-14-1 ATS.

Hit Me

Speaking of scoring, putting points in the scoreboard is obviously tantamount to succeeding in this game.

Those that do, win the game and the money. Those that don’t, lose the game and the money. It’s just that simple. And 21 points appears to be the cut-line.

That’s because teams that fail to score 21 points in the Super Bowl are 1-20 SU and 3-17-1 ATS. Teams that tally 21 or more points are 26-9 SU and 23-9-3 ATS. The lone winner that failed to eclipse the 21-point plateau was the New York Giants (17 points) in SBXLII against New England.

Twenty-seven points virtually assures a victory as teams putting 27 or more on the scoreboard are 22-1 SU and 19-3-1 ATS. The lone team to bust this mark and lose was Carolina (29), who fell to New England in SBXXXVIII.

Seed Me

Going back the last 15 years, the higher-seeded team has struggled mightily against the spread in the big game.

Last year paired both the No. 1 seeds from each conference for the first time in 16 years when New Orleans upended Indianapolis, 31-17.

Two years ago Pittsburgh downed Arizona, 27-23, while failing to cover the seven-point spread. As a result the higher seeded team (Pittsburgh) will carry a 1-11-2 ATS mark into SBXLV.

On a side note, the last No.1 to win a Super Bowl, playing a non-No.1 seed, was the ’99 Rams.

Conference Call

Like the National League’s one-time mastery over the American League, the NFC has held the upper hand over the AFC in Super Bowl games since 1980, going 19-11 SU and 18-10-2 ATS.

When facing an AFC foe off back-to-back ATS wins, the NFC is 15-6 SU and 15-5-1 ATS in games with Roman Numerals attached. However, the NFC is only 4-9 SU and 6-6-1 ATS in the last 13 Super Bowl contests.

One final note: this marks the first time in nine years the NFC will dress up as the favorite.

That’s an early take on this year’s Super Bowl matchup. Good luck as always.

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Super Bowl Odds: Cashing 'total' tickets

Super Bowl betting brings many gamblers out to back a ‘side’ in the game, but the ‘total’ is often worth an even longer look when wanting to place a winning wager.

The public has historically preferred betting the ‘over’ in the Super Bowl to cheer on scoring and to use in parlays with other wagers. Sports books have often had to inflate the ‘total’ to a high value in the annual duel to account for this, while letting professionals capitalize on the overlay.

Sunday’s clash between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers saw its ‘total’ open at 45 ½, with early ‘under’ action untraditionally dropping the number to as low as 44. The pattern could be worth backing, with ‘total’ movement being correct at 52.9 percent (45-40) in games involving either Pittsburgh or Green Bay for the last three seasons, according to Don Best Sports' matchup report.

The ‘under’ has cashed at 5-1 in the last six Super Bowl battles, with the combined score of several contests in that span falling near the closing ‘total.’

The sole ‘over’ of that span saw Pittsburgh combine with the Arizona Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII for 50 points, which leaped above the ‘total’ of 46 ½. ‘Under’ backers will recall James Harrison’s 100-yard interception run to end the first half contributing to their losing wagers, as well as each squad notching a touchdown with less than three minutes remaining in the fourth quarter.

Last year’s contest between the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts saw both squads unite for 48 points, ducking below the ‘total’ of 56 ½. Oddsmakers listed a lofty number with two high-octane offenses taking the field, but the dome-team duo’s shift to Sun Life Stadium’s grass surface proved to be a factor causing differences from the rest of the season’s statistics.

Sunday’s game will be held at Cowboys Stadium in Dallas, with its retractable roof slated to be closed. The ‘over’ collected at 8-0 in all eight of the Dallas Cowboys’ home dates during the regular season.

The Super Bowl was last held in an enclosed venue three years ago, when University of Phoenix Stadium hosted the New York Giants pulling off a 17-14 upset as 12-point underdogs against the New England Patriots. The combined 31 points scored on the unique facility’s grass surface plunged ‘under’ the ‘total’ of 55.

Green Bay's four previous trips to the Super Bowl have seen an average of 51.7 points scored in the games, with the Packers averaging 31.7 points. Pittsburgh seven previous Super Bowls have produced an average of 43.0 points per contest. The Steelers' per game mark is 28.0.

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Super Bowl Ticket Prices

January 31, 2011


2011-$1,200 to $600 Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, Texas

2010-$1,000 to $500 Sun Life Stadium, Miami

2009-$1,000 to $500 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla.

2008-$900, $700 University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Ariz.

2007-$700, $600 Dolphin Stadium, Miami

2006-$700, $600 Ford Field, Detroit

2005-$600, $500 ALLTEL Stadium, Jacksonville, Fla.

2004-$600, $500, $400 Reliant Stadium, Houston

2003-$500, $400 Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego

2002-$400 Superdome, New Orleans

2001-$325 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla.

2000-$325 Georgia Dome, Atlanta

1999-$325 Pro Player Stadium, Miami

1998-$275 Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego

1997-$275 Superdome, New Orleans

1996-$350, $250, $200 Sun Devil Stadium, Tempe, Ariz.

1995-$200 Joe Robbie Stadium, Miami

1994-$175 Georgia Dome, Atlanta

1993-$175 Rose Bowl, Pasadena, Calif.

1992-$150 Metrodome, Minneapolis

1991-$150 Tampa (Fla.) Stadium

1990-$125 Superdome, New Orleans

1989-$100 Joe Robbie Stadium, Miami

1988-$100 Jack Murphy Stadium, San Diego

1987-$75 Rose Bowl, Pasadena, Calif.

1986-$75 Superdome, New Orleans

1985-$60 Stanford (Calif.) Stadium

1984-$60 Tampa (Fla.) Stadium

1983-$40 Rose Bowl, Pasadena, Calif.

1982-$40 Silverdome, Pontiac, Mich.

1981-$40 Superdome, New Orleans

1980-$30 Rose Bowl, Pasadena, Calif.

1979-$30 Orange Bowl, Miami

1978-$30 Superdome, New Orleans

1977-$20 Rose Bowl, Pasadena, Calif.

1976-$20 Orange Bowl, Miami

1975-$20 Tulane Stadium, New Orleans

1974-$15 Rice Stadium, Houston

1973-$15 Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles

1972-$15 Tulane Stadium, New Orleans

1971-$15 Orange Bowl, Miami

1970-$15 Tulane Stadium, New Orleans

1969-$12 Orange Bowl, Miami

1968-$12 Orange Bowl, Miami

1967-$12, $10, $6 Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles

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Super Bowl stat angles
By: Staff Writer - *******
Published: 2/2/2011 at 2:08:00 PM
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Because of the extra week of preparation and the neutral field environment, neither team in a Super Bowl game will have any artificial advantages. Both are quality teams with exceptional coaching staffs, so they will be prepared to play. As was proven three years ago in the Giants mega-upset of the Patriots, there is no such thing as a physical mismatch in the Super Bowl. What we’re getting at is that winning games of this magnitude comes down to execution. Some teams might show up planning to pull a few gimmicks, but they won’t be able to do so for the full 60 minutes. The eventual winner is the team that best controls the line of scrimmage, makes the most big plays, and avoids catastrophic mistakes like turning the ball over. In past Super Bowls, the team that accomplished these goals has almost always come out on top. Those familiar with the ******* FoxSheets know that these factors figure prominently in our computerized game projections.
Rushing yards, passing yards per attempt, turnovers, and time of possession are four key statistical categories that we like to use to determine their relationship to winning, both SU & ATS. The following trends will demonstrate the importance of these statistics:


Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 35-9 SU & 32-9-3 ATS (78%).

Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the NFL title game are 38-6 SU & 32-9-3 ATS (78%).

In the 44 previous Super Bowls, the team that has more turnovers has won just four times SU and six times ATS (86%). Remarkably, the last three times it happened straight up were the Steelers’ last three world championships.

Teams that win the time of possession battle are 32-12 SU & 31-10-3 ATS (76%).

Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 36-2 SU & 32-5-1 ATS (86%).In ’09, Arizona ran for more yards, turned the ball over fewer times, and possessed the ball longer than Pittsburgh to cover the point spread, yet lost on the scoreboard.

Teams that win all four categories are 23-0 SU & 21-1-1 ATS. The only ATS loss occurred in Super Bowl XXXIX in Philadelphia’s ATS win versus the Patriots.

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Over/Under Super Bowl Prop Bets


As the world gears up for Super Bowl XLV on Sunday, the staff at ******* provides our analysis of some of the betting action. In this story, we break down some of the key Over/Under prop bets for the big game.

Largest lead of the game
OVER 13.5 (-130)
UNDER 13.5 (even)
******* Scott: Give me the OVER here. And I think it will be Green Bay that gains a two-touchdown lead at some point.
******* Brian: I’ll go UNDER. I don’t see either team taking a big lead. The defenses could give up big chunks of yardage, but I expect them to both buckle down in the red zone.

Total interceptions thrown by both teams
OVER 2.5 (+180)
UNDER 2.5 (-240)
******* Gary: I know these are two ball-hawking secondaries, but I’m going UNDER despite the steep price. I think these teams will go conservative early.
******* Scott: I love the OVER at nearly 2-to-1 and with my expectation that both teams will be throwing a lot of passes. An Aaron Rodgers pick and pair of Ben Roethlisberger INTs sounds right.

Total field goals made by both teams
OVER 3.5 (+160)
UNDER 3.5 (-200)
******* Scott: I’ll go UNDER despite the high price, partly because I have little faith in Shaun Suisham’s big-game ability.
******* Brian: I’m going OVER. Pittsburgh ranks fourth in the NFL in red-zone scoring percentage defense and Green Bay allowed the fewest red-zone scoring attempts per game.

Total touchdowns scored in the game
OVER 5 (-115)
UNDER 5 (-115)
******* Gary: Tough call, but I’ll lean slightly OVER. Steelers games had an average of 4.2 TDs per game, and that was with a great red-zone defense.
******* Scott: I’ll go OVER too. I’ve got the Packers reaching the end zone four times and the Steelers twice.
Log on to Sportsbook.com’s Live Odds page for the latest on these props and hundreds more.

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Super Bowl statistical analysis

Here are nine trends and the qualifying play for this Sunday’s game based upon teams’ stats headed into the big game:
1) Teams with the edge against the line on the ******* Outplay Factor Rating have lost four of the last five Super Bowls against the spread.
Qualifier for Super Bowl XLV: Against PITTSBURGH

2) The team that averages more points per game offensively headed into the Super Bowl is just 2-7-1 ATS (22%) over the last decade.
Qualifier for Super Bowl XLV: Against GREEN BAY

3) The team with the better won-lost record headed into the Super Bowl is on a 4-10-2 ATS (29%) slide.
Qualifier for Super Bowl XLV: Against PITTSBURGH

4) The team that converts a better percentage of 3rd-down attempts headed into the Super Bowl is just 2-7-1 ATS (22%) in the last 10 years.
Qualifier for Super Bowl XLV: Against PITTSBURGH

5) The Super Bowl team that averages fewer yards per rushing attempt on offense is 5-10-2 ATS (33%) in the last 17 games.
Qualifier for Super Bowl XLV: Against GREEN BAY

6) The Super Bowl team that averages more yards per passing attempt on offense is just 5-8-2 ATS (38%) in the last 15 games.
Qualifier for Super Bowl XLV: Against GREEN BAY

7) The team with the edge in offensive yards per point is on a 3-6 ATS (33%) slide in the last 9 Super Bowl games.
Qualifier for Super Bowl XLV: Against GREEN BAY

8) The team with the better turnover differential heading into the Super Bowl is 1-6 ATS (14%) over the last 7 years.
Qualifier for Super Bowl XLV: Against PITTSBURGH

9) The Super Bowl team that allows more yards per rushing attempt on defense is 3-9-2 ATS (25%) in the last 14 games.
Qualifier for Super Bowl XLV: Against GREEN BAY

If you were counting, that was five Against Green Bay, and four Against Pittsburgh. Is that a hint of what’s to come? Enjoy the action, and good luck from everyone at *******!

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Super Bowl Yes-No Prop Bets


As the world gears up for Super Bowl XLV on Sunday, the staff at ******* provides our analysis of some of the betting action. In this story, we break down some of the key Yes/No prop bets for the big game.

Will either team score in first 6½ minutes?
YES (-120)
NO (-110)
******* Dave: NO. Both teams will look try to run the ball early. Also, during the year Green Bay and Pittsburgh scored less than 20% of their points in the first quarter.
******* Brian: I agree it’s NO. The Steelers especially will try to establish the run—if Pittsburgh receives the opening kick, Green Bay might not even get the ball in this time frame.

Will the team that scores first win the game?
YES (-170)
NO (+140)
******* Gary: I’ll go with NO. While teams scoring first have won 28 Super Bowls, they’ve lost four of the last six. Both teams here have QBs capable of fourth-quarter comebacks.
******* Dave: I also like NO here. Green Bay scores over 60% of their points in the second and third quarter, Pittsburgh scores over 60% of theirs in the second and fourth. Expect a see-saw game and take the +140.

Will there be a defensive or special teams TD?
YES (+140)
NO (-170)
******* Scott: Odds favor NO here. Both teams’ defenses did score in their conference title games, but they combined for only eight such scores over 32 regular-season games.
******* Brian: I’m saying YES, given all the defensive playmakers in this game, I expect at least one defensive touchdown, although not another one from B.J. Raji.

Will either team score in last 3½ minutes?
YES (-155)
NO (+125)
******* Gary: YES. Each QB is capable of running the two-minute drill, and both defenses proved vulnerable to the hurry-up offense in their respective conference title games.
******* Dave: I’m also going YES even though I generally don’t like playing a big favorite prop like this. The Packers score about 30% and give up 33% of their total points in the fourth quarter. Pittsburgh scores about 33% and gives up nearly 40% of its points in the fourth.

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Super Bowl Betting: Analyzing prop odds

Super Bowl XLV props this season range from the ridiculous to the sublime, and here at DonBest we're taking a look at a few of the prototypical props, and a few that are just a tad bit off the board from the norm.

Tim Masthay Longest Punt Over/Under 55.5 Yards (BetUS Sportsbook)
Masthay has really been eating his Wheaties of late, uncorking some big-time punts. He had a 65-yarder against the Chicago Bears in the NFC Championship, the longest boot of his entire career, and he has had at least one punt of 54 yards in five out of six games.

Knowing that this game is played in perfect weather conditions and not in the slop of Soldier Field or Lambeau Field, this is a perfect chance for Masthay to shine. Masthay Longest Punt Over 55.5 Yards (-115 at BetUS)

Brett Favre Spoken Over/Under 2.5 Times (5Dimes Sportsbook)
We know that Joe Buck and Troy Aikman have this man crush on No. 4, but there are so many other ways to refer to him than "Brett Favre." Part of the trick of Super Bowl props is remembering the rules. This rule explicitly states that we must hear "Brett Favre," first and last name together.

Sure, it's a slam dunk to happen once, and it very well could happen twice. It might seem like a certainty, but this is anything but. "Brett Favre Spoken Under 2.5 Times (+140 at 5Dimes)

Total Passing Yards By Aaron Rodgers Over/Under 275.5 (Bodog Sportsbook)
We know that the Steelers really don't have the greatest pass defense in the world, and we know that trying to run the ball against them is about as successful most of the time as trying to run through a brick wall. But this is an awful lot of passing yards for any man to get in a Super Bowl.

Rodgers proved two weeks ago against the Chicago Bears that when he gets hit, he isn't nearly as effective as he is when he is standing upright. There isn't a team in the league that can get after the passer like Pittsburgh can, and if Rodgers really does take some shots, it's going to be hard to see him getting to this type of a number.

With RB James Starks getting more and more of the carries than Rodgers is used to giving out on a regular basis, we tend to believe that the former Cal Golden Bear will come up short of this figure. Rodgers Under 275.5 Passing Yards (+100 at BoDog)

Will Green Bay Score in All Four Quarters? (Bookmaker.com)
This is something that has happened a grand total of twice all season long against the Steelers defense. The New York Jets pulled off the stunt, and the Miami Dolphins did it. Even the great New England Patriots, who scored 39 points against these Steelers in Pittsburgh, couldn't figure out how to put at least a few points on the board in all four quarters.

Don't expect to see the Packers all of a sudden figure out how to do the unthinkable against this defense either. Packers to Not Score in All Four Quarters (-300 at BookMaker)

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Super Bowl Betting: Packers, Steelers set for kickoff

Super Bowl XLV between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers is almost here and movement of the betting line has been eerily quiet of late.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) sent out an opening line of Green Bay minus 1 ½, which quickly went to 2 ½ at most Las Vegas and offshore sports books. It was thought that heavy betting on Pittsburgh would move the line down, but that hasn’t happened yet and the Packers have become even slightly stronger.

Looking at the DonBest.com NFL odds, the three Las Vegas books listed (Hilton, Mirage and Palace Station) all have Green Bay as 2 ½-point favorites (minus 120).

The offshore sports books fluctuate more with *** Global having the best odds for Green Bay as 2 ½-point favorites (minus 110). Other shops like Bookmaker.com have Green Bay as three-point ‘chalk’ (plus 110).

The total opened at 44 ½-points, moved up to 45 ½ at many places and is now back to 44 ½ almost everywhere. Pittsburgh’s average total during the regular season was 37.9 points, 49 points in its two playoff wins.

Green Bay average total during the regular season was 39.3 points, 47 points in its three playoff wins. That playoff number was skewed by the 48-21 win at Atlanta in the Georgia Dome. The roof will be closed Sunday in Dallas for perfect conditions again.

Latest Injury News

There hasn’t been a lot of breaking news coming out of ‘Big D’ this week. The media tried to make Ben Roethlisberger going to a Piano Bar with his linemen into a controversy, but that quickly fizzled.

Pittsburgh center Maurkice Pouncey (ankle) did not practice again on Thursday and appears questionable at best. Backup Doug Legursky could get his first career NFL start for an o-line that already lost both starting offensive tackles earlier this year.

Defensive end Aaron Smith (triceps) has had some limited practice, but is still considered doubtful. He last played in October.

Green Bay has some recent injury news with receiver Donald Driver dealing with a quad. He’s considered probable. Starting linebacker Erik Walden (ankle) is questionable and his backup Frank Zombo (knee) could return to replace him for his first game since December.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers was rumored to have a sore shoulder and/or possible concussion from the NFC title game. Those are non issues.

Unique props draw interest

There are literally thousands of different props available on the Super Bowl, but some stand out for their uniqueness and humor. For example:

Will Aaron Rodgers pass for 29.5 yards more than Brett Favre did (246 passing yards) in Super Bowl XXXI versus New England? Yes is minus 120, No is minus 110. Odds are courtesy of Bodog.com.

What will Fergie’s outfit be at the halftime show? A Bodysuit (plus 100), Skirt or Dress (plus 135), Pants (plus 175), Shorts (plus 400) and Thong (plus 1500) are the choices. Odds are courtesy of BetUs.com.

What color will the Gatorade shower be that is dumped on the head of the winning coach? Yellow (minus 110), Clear/Water (plus 200), Red (plus 300), Orange (plus 400), Lime Green (plus 500) or Blue (plus 1200)? Odds are courtesy of EasyStreetSports.com.

Will a Steelers player do the Aaron Rodgers’ Championship Belt Celebration during the game? Yes is plus 115, No is minus 155. Odds are courtesy of Bodog.com.

Trending in the right direction

There are several betting trends surrounding this game. For example, the ‘under’ is 5-1 in the last six Super Bowls. Here are some more pertaining directly to Pittsburgh and Green Bay.

Trends favoring Pittsburgh:

•Pittsburgh is 3-1 ATS as an underdog this year.
•Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU and 4-2-1 ATS all-time in Super Bowls.
•Super Bowl underdogs of three-points or less are 6-4 SU all-time.
•The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine Super Bowls.
Trends favoring Green Bay:

•Green Bay is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in its last five games (all facing elimination).
•The NFC is 3-0 ATS in the last three Super Bowls and 6-2 ATS in the last eight.

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SBXLV Betting Notes

February 2, 2011

If you can’t be in Arlington for the actual Super Bowl, there is no better place to be than in Las Vegas. With a combination of all the party glitz New Years Eve offers mixed in with the passion of sports and Las Vegas’ favorite tradition, gambling, a trip to Vegas for the game is actually a little more entertaining -- and sometimes cheaper -- than being at the actual game.
While there are just over 100,000 people that have tickets for the game itself, Las Vegas opens its arms large for all with its sportsbooks and parties all across town making the theme of the day louder and larger than any destination in the world! And even though the NFL won’t allow anyone in Las Vegas to actually use the trademarked term of “Super Bowl”, everyone just says “The Big Game” with a wink.

Sorry Dallas, everything is big in Texas, but with 300,000 people expected to be in town, the scoreboard shows Las Vegas as the real winner of being truly big for your event.

Strategizing Your Prop Plays

Upon coming to town, you have already got a preconceived notion of who you like. Depending on whom that team is and how you figure the tempo to go, you have a great head start of what to play in your prop wagers.

Should you like the Steelers to win and shut down the Packers, obviously you play the Steelers to win -- either on the money-line or point-spread -- and take a shot with the under. A parlay of the two may even be a good investment at a lower amount than your other bets.

You then have to analyze how you came to that conclusion. As you go on about the Steelers have the No. 1 total defense led by the league’s top run defense by a large margin, you come to the conclusion that the Packers won’t be able to run. Glancing through the sheets of prop pages, you find exactly the type of bet that coincides with your logic, the Packers running back James Starks under 50 ½ yards.

You then come to the conclusion that if the Packers can’t run, they’ll obviously have to throw which then takes you to betting over 34 ½ pass attempts by quarterback Aaron Rodgers, something Rodgers has done in three of the four losses he had while not getting hurt.

On the Pittsburgh side, you’re wondering about how they’ll get the win and you reflect back on the success they had over the year, in particular the games that the defense shined. Signal caller Ben Roethlisberger’s passing yardage is hard to gauge because it’s so extreme one way or another, but wide receiver Mike Wallace and running back Rashard Mendenhall seem to be consistent key figures in the Steelers success.

Wallace has made big plays all season with seven of his 10 touchdowns coming at least 33 yards out, therefore you start salivating at the chance to bet over 23 ½ yards on Wallace’s longest reception and the +140 on “Yes”, Wallace to score a touchdown. You also get a little greedy with the odds and take a smaller wager on Wallace to score in the first half at +320.

Believing that the Steelers will win, and will do so with the game staying closer to the under, you start believing that Mendenhall’s time consuming carries in the AFC Championship game against the Jets will be duplicated. In that game, he carried the ball 27 times for 121 yards. For the Super Bowl against the Packers, Mendenhall only has to get over 79 yards to win the bet.

Regardless of what scenario unfolds for the game whether you like it high scoring, low scoring, Packers or Steelers, stay correlated with your thoughts rather than just betting random props. Even though betting the first player to score can be fun sometimes, you lose all the edge due to the large house hold on the index.

Any prop that has more than two options should not even be looked at because what you are looking for the most calculated way to keep some kind of an edge on the afternoon with your opinion being the driving force.

By correlating your bets, you have a much better chance to win big on the day if correct. Why do you think the sportsbooks don‘t let people parlay the propositions? It‘s because if one thing happens, there is a greater likelihood that certain other things will happen which gives all the value to the player.

I should note that one sportsbook, the Las Vegas Hilton, has a list of props that aren’t correlated in any fashion that they do allow parlays on, but it‘s a very short list among their volumes of pages.

Handle Not Expected to Break State Record

All indications from sportsbooks across the state is that this year’s Super Bowl handle will not break the record of $94.5 million set in 2006, but could beat the last two seasons, neither of which passed the $83 million mark. MGM Resorts Race and Sports Book Director Jay Rood said he thought $88 million could be achievable.

Rood also believes that despite seeing larger action thus far on the Packers that his books likely won’t go to minus-3 stating that Steelers money should start coming in helping to balance out the action that has already been bet.

Bettors with large Packers money have most likely already bet for fear of not getting -2 ½ while the Steelers backers are all waiting for +3. Some of the traditional “Square” sportsbooks off-shore have gone to +3 (Even or +105) on the game, but most of them rarely take large sharp action so it isn’t quite the same indicator that some of the Las Vegas books are. As soon as Stations, MGM Resorts and Wynn all start sliding back to 2 ½-flat, the flood gates should open with Pittsburgh money wanting to get at least +2 or higher.

About 35% of the overall Super Bowl action will occur on Friday and Saturday, with nearly 45% of all the action coming Sunday from 12:01 am to kickoff. Among that huge percentage, I would expect a large portion of it to be Steelers money, who have been waiting for their optimum time to get value. That's just speculation on my behalf, because I've been wrong before, such as 2003 when the Raiders money never came.

Center of Attention

The last team we saw a team play in the Super Bowl without their starting center was in 2003 when the Raiders’ Barrett Robbins went missing on what we later found out was a drinking binge in Tijuana mixed in with psychological issues. Tampa Bay money flooded in simultaneously with news and the Raiders ended up losing 48-21.

Steelers center Maurkice Pouncey has been -- kind of -- ruled out of the Super Bowl and while the point-spread won’t be adjusted, you have to feel that the anchor of the offensive line has to be worth something. Between all the blocking schemes in their power running game, the loss of Pouncey is might affect the team more than we think.

My Favorite Prop

The MGM resorts sports books have a great prop up asking who will have more, Lebron James and Blake Griffin’s points in their Sunday game against each other or the total points scored in the Super Bowl. James and Griffin are the -4 ½ favorite. Based on their season averages, the number is correct. However, based on their averages in the last 30 days, James and Griffin present great value because their combined average is eight points higher than their season average which gives the bettor an edge for this prop.

I like the game to over 44 ½, but there is too much value in betting with Griffin and James to pass up. I would fully expect both players to surpass their 30 day average as each will look to outshine the other.

Who Do I Think Will Win?

I’ve heard just about every angle for the game from a few sharps and lots of public opinion, and respect them all, but surprisingly, I haven’t wavered too much from my initial thoughts where I thought the game would be won by the Steelers 27-23. I still like the Steelers to win, but I’m thinking more points will be scored.

Not only is it hard for me to get the Steelers 37-36 win over the Packers game out of my head from 2009, but it’s also hard to forget just how good Rodgers is on fast tracks under the roof. Going all the way back to Packers loss at Arizona in the playoffs where he had to 423 yards, to this year where he threw for over 300 yards at Atlanta twice and in Minnesota where he threw for 301 yards, I just think he’ll be able to do his thing well, even against the Steelers top ranked defense.

As for the Steelers, I love how they bend, but they rarely break. All season long they have been battle tested, not to mention many in this group having won two Super Bowls. I think they’re expectations of winning and experience in being able to follow through in tough times will set them apart from Green Bay in a close, but very exciting game.

I’ve bet OVER 44 ½ as my top play, with the Steelers money-line at +125 and Steelers +2 ½ (+105) each for just a shade less.

Final Score: Steelers 31, Packers 27

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GB Passing vs. PIT Secondary

February 1, 2011


Editor's Note: Kevin Rogers ranks sixth overall in the NFL and is riding a 68-46 (+1,780) run. You can purchase his Super Bowl winner right here on VegasInsider.com Click to win!

The quarterbacks and defenses will be the two major focal points of Super Bowl XLV as Aaron Rodgers makes his debut in this round when the Packers battle the Steelers. Green Bay has been boosted by the play of its young quarterback, considering Rodgers dealt with basically a non-existent running game the whole season following the foot injury suffered by Ryan Grant in the season opener. Rodgers faces the league's second-best defense from a yardage standpoint and the top defense in the points allowed category.

Packers' passing game

Green Bay finished the regular season ranked fifth in the league (4,124 yards) in passing, while Rodgers threw for 3,922 yards. In his third full season running the Packers' offense, the ex-Cal standout didn't throw for 4,000 yards for the first time, while missing one game due to a concussion at New England. The key for Rodgers is to maintain the consistency from the first two playoff victories at Philadelphia and Atlanta.

Rodgers tossed six touchdowns and no interceptions with an average quarterback rating of 129 in the wins over the Eagles and Falcons. He failed to throw a touchdown pass while tossing a pair of interceptions in the NFC Title victory at Chicago. Rodgers' legs were able to get two scores at Atlanta and Chicago, including the opening touchdown against the Bears.

Through a 4-3 start the first seven weeks of the season, Rodgers tossed 12 touchdowns and nine interceptions. In the final eight regular season games Rodgers played (excluding the Week 15 loss at New England), the Packers won six times, while racking up a touchdown to interception ratio of 16/2.

Several of the Rodgers props to keep an eye on are his passing yardage, rushing yardage, and completions. Sportsbook.com has listed the total of his passing yards at 275 ½, as you will have to lay $1.15 to win $1.00 regardless of your bet. Rodgers threw for more than 276 in 10 of 18 games this season, including five instances away from Lambeau Field. Completions is listed at 22 ½, as it's shaded to the 'over' at $1.20 to win $1.00. This was a bit more infrequent than the passing yards, as Rodgers completed at least 23 passes in a game only six times, with three of them coming in defeats.

One prop that may hit due to his nimble feet is the 20 ½ rushing yards for Rodgers. The Steelers do own the league's best rushing defense by limiting opponents to 62 yards/game, but Rodgers was the third-best running quarterback with 356 yards (23.7/game). Rodgers rushed for at least 20 yards in 12 different games this season and has a knack for scrambling when the play breaks down.

Steelers' secondary

When talking about the Pittsburgh defensive backs, Troy Polamalu's name usually comes up first. With the former USC star playing in each of the last three games following an ankle injury that kept him out the previous two weeks, Polamalu tried to sure up this secondary. The Steelers are ranked 12th in the league in passing defense (214.1 yards/game), but breaking it down, Pittsburgh did this against inferior competition.

Over the final nine games of the season (including the playoffs), the Steelers faced one passing offense that ranked higher than 15th. Oakland (23rd), Buffalo (24th), Baltimore (20th), Cincinnati (13th), N.Y. Jets (22nd), Carolina (32nd) and Cleveland (29th) all were held below 17 points in their regular season matchups, while the Ravens and Jets combined to score 43 points in the playoff games.

Polamalu led the team in interceptions with seven, while fellow safety Ryan Clark and cornerbacks Ike Taylor and Bryant McFadden each picked off two passes this season. Clark was fourth on the team in tackles with 90, as all four starters in the secondary ranked in the top seven on the defense in tackles.

The Steelers' defense was tied for fifth in the league in interceptions with 21, as you can lay $1.60 to win $1.00 if you believe Rodgers will throw a pick on Sunday. If Rodgers doesn't throw an interception, it's a $1.30 return on a $1.00 investment. Polamalu has a nice payoff if he makes an interception, receiving $2.20 on a $1.00 bet. On the flip side, it's a heavy $3.00 wager to win a $1.00 if Polamalu doesn't make an interception.

Who has the edge?

Green Bay's passing offense has been stellar all season long by ranking fifth in the league, even though the Packers were slowed down by the Bears in the NFC Championship. Pittsburgh has proven it can stop weaker passing games, but the Steelers are due for a huge test with all the weapons Rodgers has at his disposal. The secondary puts up good numbers, but with weather not being a factor, the Packers can have a solid day through the air.

Edge: Packers

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Coaching Analysis

February 3, 2011

Is it the players or the coach?
A question often asked in every pro sport and one that is always debated, especially in pro football and it’s usually the quarterback versus the coach.

This past week, New England’s Bill Belichick won Coach of the Year honors, deservingly. It was his third time receiving the award but you wonder if we would even be talking about him if it wasn’t for his quarterback Tom Brady, who was just named the league’s Most Valuable Player.

Prior to having Brady under center, Belichick went 36-44 with the Cleveland Browns. In his first year at New England without Brady, he posted a 5-11 mark. To his defense, his squad did go 10-5 in the 2008 season after Brady got hurt with a knee injury in Week 1.

Super Bowl XLV will feature Green Bay’s Mike McCarthy going head-to-head against Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin and both head coaches have great gunslingers.

McCarthy has an extra year under his belt as a head coach and he’s done well with Green Bay, producing a 52-34 straight up and 51-33-2 (61%) against the spread record. In the playoffs, he’s gone 4-2 both SU and ATS. A lot of folks forget but this could easily be the second trip to the Super Bowl for McCarthy but a quarterback named Brett Favre screwed up against the N.Y. Giants (20-23) in the 2007 NFC Championship.

Tomlin will be making his second go ‘round in the big game and he’s hoping to hoist the hardware again as well. He’s the youngest head coach to win a Super Bowl and his overall record (48-22 SU, 37-31-2 ATS) in Pittsburgh is impressive or is it? Tomlin definitely stepped into a great position when Bill Cowher parted ways with the franchise and he’s taken a lot of criticism for winning with his players. One of those critics is VegasInsider.com handicapper Judd Hall, who isn’t buying into the hype.

“I can’t deny Mike Tomlin’s success as a head coach, but he’s nothing more than a poor man’s Barry Switzer. Almost anyone could have succeeded Bill Cowher with that talent and guided them to a Super Bowl championship. Plus, Tomlin has made his playoff wins a lot closer than they needed to be with his suspect decision making. Who can forget him not going for it on fourth-and-goal on the opening drive of Super Bowl XLIII? And had it not been for Ben Roethlisberger’s heroics in the final minutes of the win against Arizona, that easily could have been the greatest choke job of any championship game in history,” explained Hall.

Looking at Hall’s comments, they’re more than fair. Tomlin lost his first playoff game in his debut season at home to Jacksonville (29-31). And for those of you that forgot, Pittsburgh trailed 28-10 heading into the fourth quarter before Big Ben and the defense made a late run. Unfortunately for the Steelers, they fell short and you could look at Tomlin’s questionable play-calling, especially on a two-point conversion in the fourth quarter. Play-by-Play

His experience definitely showed in the loss to the Jaguars but he’s notched a perfect 5-0 record in the postseason since. Only one of those wins was by more than double digits but that doesn’t matter this Sunday, since Tomlin is listed as an underdog. You might want to make a note that the last time Tomlin caught points in a playoff game was the aforementioned loss to Jacksonville and they covered as a three-point home ‘dog.

McCarthy doesn’t have the same Super Bowl experience as Tomlin but what he does have is a knack for winning off rest. Green Bay’s coach has gone 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS after a week off, which includes a 31-3 road victory over Minnesota this season.

Unlike other professional sports, this is a one-and-done game. You get no second chances and with that being said, we feel Tomlin’s postseason luck runs out.

Edge: Green Bay

[StarDust Bum]

PIT Passing vs. GB Secondary

February 2, 2011


The Steelers go for their third Super Bowl victory in Ben Roethlisberger's tenure in Pittsburgh as they face a Packers' defense that finished second overall with 24 interceptions. Big Ben turned in a solid season despite missing the first four regular season games due to a league-induced suspension. Roethlisberger threw for 3,200 yards, while tossing 17 touchdowns and just five interceptions to help lead the Steelers to their second 12-4 season in three years.

Steelers' passing game

Even though Pittsburgh ranked 14th in the regular season in passing yards, that number was skewed thanks to Dennis Dixon and Charlie Batch starting the first four games in place of Roethlisberger. After the suspension was up, the former Miami (Ohio) standout threw the fewest interceptions in his seven-year career, while eclipsing the 3,000 yards mark for the fifth straight season.

Roethlisberger was consistent all season long by throwing for at least 250 yards in nine of 11 regular season games, even though he was held under that total in the two playoff wins over the Ravens and Jets. His best game came in a 39-26 blowout home loss to the Patriots in Week 10 as he racked up 387 yards and three touchdown passes, even though most of those numbers came in the fourth quarter with the game out of reach.

The ball was spread out to a multitude of receivers this season with at least four players accumulating at least 20 receptions. Mike Wallace hauled in a career-best 10 touchdowns and 1,257 yards on 60 catches, even though he was limited to just four receptions in the two playoff victories. Hines Ward's numbers took a dip this season after consecutive 1,000 yard seasons with only 755 yards on 59 receptions. The five touchdowns was the lowest total for Ward since 2004 when the former Super Bowl MVP reached the end zone four times.

From a props perspective, Sportsbook.com has listed the total for Roethlisberger's passing yards at 240 ½, with $1.15 'juice' on either side. As noted earlier, Big Ben can certainly fly over this number, as he didn't throw the ball much in the second half of the AFC Title Game with the Steelers jumping out to a 24-0 lead over the Jets (133 yards). After attempting 29 passes or less in five of his first six games, Roethlisberger threw at least 32 passes in seven of the final nine contests. That is important since there is a prop of how many attempts Big Ben will make with the number set at 31 ½ ($1.15 'juice' each way).

Wallace and Ward each have several props on the board including total receptions, longest reception, total receiving yards, and whether or not they will score a touchdown. With Wallace's big-play potential, his total of longest catch is set at 24 ½ ($1.15 'juice' each way), as the ex-Ole Miss receiver made 26 catches of at least 20 yards, which led the NFL. Ward's total receiving yards is 45 ½, shading towards the 'under' at $1.30 to win $1.00. The 'under' may seem like the play here with Ward finishing below 45 yards in 13 of 18 games, including each of the last five.

Packers' secondary

Green Bay's defense caused 32 turnovers, with 24 of those takeaways coming via the interception. Cornerback Tramon Williams grabbed six picks, the third-most in the league, while recovering two fumbles. Veteran Charles Woodson will be playing in his second Super Bowl after participating as a member of the Raiders in 2003 against the Buccaneers. Woodson recorded only two interceptions, but racked up the third-most tackles on the team with 92.

One player that stepped up in the playoffs was rookie Sam Shields, who made two interceptions to wrap up the NFC Championship at Chicago. The former Miami Hurricane also forced a fumble, giving the Packers plenty of depth at cornerback. The tandem of safeties Nick Collins and Charlie Peprah combined for 133 tackles and six interceptions, while the defense held 11 of their last 12 opponents to 21 points or less.

The Packers finished fifth in the league by allowing 194 passing yards/game, as eight of their 13 opponents were ranked in the top half of the NFL in passing offense. Pittsburgh is in that class, as Green Bay shut down the Eagles (9th), Falcons (15th), and Giants (10th) over the last month, while intercepting Michael Vick, Matt Ryan, and Eli Manning a combined seven times.

Sportsbook.com has listed a handful of props for members of the Packers' secondary. Williams is plus-money if he records 'over' three tackles (solo and assisted), while 'under' pays off a $1.00 for every $1.40 wagered. If Williams intercepts a pass, it's a healthy $2.30 return, while you would have to bet $3.20 to win $1.00 if the ex-Louisiana Tech defensive back does not make a pick. Woodson is listed at 5 ½ tackles (solo and assisted) with $1.15 wagered to win a $1.00 either way, as the former Heisman Trophy winner recorded at least six tackles nine times in 19 games.

Who has the edge?

Roethlisberger has been careful with the ball all season by throwing only five interceptions, but he faces a defense that has proven its worth all season long. With the emergence of Shields, the nickel package for the Packers can slow down this Steelers' passing game that has one legit deep threat in Wallace.

Edge: Packers