NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Bowl Season (12/18 - 1/10)

[Udog]

NCAAF
Write-Up


Tuesday, January 4

Sugar Bowl, New Orleans
Ohio State is 0-9 in bowls vs SEC teams; there are rumblings they could suspend the five guys from Tattoogate for part of this game (Ohio State alum/ESPN announcer Spielman hinted at this), but they haven't done it yet. Buckeyes are 1-3 in last four bowl games- they beat Oregon LY in Rose Bowl. OSU is 1-3 in Bourbon Street bowls (0-4 vs spread); the big question is whether the distractions of the suspensions for next year are a problem, and thats hard to tell from the outside.

Arkansas is 2-3 in last five bowls, losing 38-7 last time they were a dog; Petrino beat ECU 20-17 in OT LY in Liberty Bowl, his first bowl game with Hogs, who scored just 13.7 ppg in last three bowls. Arkansas has a pro prospect at QB in Mallett- they have three senior starters on OL. Razorbacks played better teams than Ohio State did, since Buckeyes do not have a win vs ranked team. Petrino won Orange Bowl four years ago when he was coaching Louisville, so he has BCS experience.

Favorites covered three of last four Sugar Bowls, which were all decided by 14+ points. SEC teams are 5-2 in last seven Sugar Bowls- Arkansas fans will be happy to have Hogs playing so close to home. Big 11 teams were so pathetic Saturday (0-5); there is pressure on Ohio State to save face for the fatcat midwestern league. If you told me all the Ohio St kids would play the whole game, I'd like the over in this game, but I'm really not sure they'll play the whole game.

[Udog]

NCAAF


Tuesday, January 4

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Tips and Trends
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Ohio St. Buckeyes vs Arkansas Razorbacks [ESPN | 8:30 PM ET]

BUCKEYES: (-3, O/U 56.5) Ohio St. has had to deal with some real turmoil since the regular season ended. 5 key players were found to have broken NCAA rules, and they will be suspended for numerous games next year. Will there be a hangover effect for them tonight? Ohio St. is 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS overall this season. The Buckeyes are 3-1 SU and 1-2-1 ATS away from home this year. Ohio St. is currently ranked 6th in the nation, and widely considered to be the 2nd best team in the country with 1 loss. The Buckeyes are 1-1-1 ATS as a single digit favorite this year. QB Terrelle Pryor has totaled nearly 3,200 YDS this season, including 29 TD's. The Buckeyes are averaging 39.4 PPG this year, 11th best in the nation. Defensively, Ohio St. is allowing just 13.3 PPG, 3rd best in the country. The Buckeyes are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Ohio St. is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 bowl games. The Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games played in January. Ohio St. is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against the SEC. The Buckeyes are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played on turf.

Buckeyes are 8-0 ATS last 8 non-conference games.
Under is 4-1 last 5 games played on turf.

Key Injuries - DB Christian Bryant (infection) is out.

Projected Score: 34 (OVER-Total of the Day)

RAZORBACKS: Arkansas is coming off consecutive SU wins against ranked opponents, and have won their past 6 games overall. The Razorbacks are 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS overall this season. Arkansas is ranked 8th in the nation coming into one of their most important games in school history. QB Ryan Mallett leads a passing offense that is averaging 338.4 PPG this year, 4th most in the nation. The Razorbacks are averaging 37.3 PPG, 14th best in the country. Mallett has thrown for 3,592 YDS and 30 TD's this year. Defensively, Arkansas is allowing 22.8 PPG, just 42nd in the nation. The Razorbacks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Arkansas is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU win. The Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. The Razorbacks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS win. Arkansas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. The Razorbacks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played on turf.

Razorbacks are 6-0 ATS last 6 games overall.
Under is 7-0 last 7 Bowl games.

Key Injuries - T Anthony Oden (illness) is questionable.

Projected Score: 31


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[Spark]

Sugar Bowl favorite Ohio State isn't going to attract many backers with its recent BCS track record. Will the Buckeyes buck the trend and finally get the best of an SEC team! A fan-pleasing shootout may be on the horizon in this game, as both teams bring loads of offensive weapons into the contest. No. 6 Ohio State (11-1), which is playing in its sixth consecutive BCS bowl and its ninth overall, averages 39.4 points and No. 8 Arkansas (10-2) averages 37.3 points.

The factor which may determine this game is defense; Ohio State has allowed an average of 9.5 fewer points than Arkansas. Ohio State brings a balanced attack, and the Buckeyes have outgained the opposition by an average of 141.7 yards over the last 17 games. Arkansas will throw under any and all conditions, which makes the Razorbacks a difficult opponent to put away.

*** SUGAR BOWL ***

ARKANSAS VS. OHIO ST
Superdome - New Orleans, LA
Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. EDT Line: Ohio ST -3.5 O/U 56
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Despite some recent turmoil, the Ohio State Buckeyes will descend on New Orleans when they battle the Arkansas Razorbacks in the 77th-annual Sugar Bowl. This is the first BCS bowl game for Arkansas, but its overall bowl resume is extensive, with this marking the team's 38th postseason game, and sixth Sugar Bowl appearance. UA is 12-22-3 in the previous 37 bowl bouts, including a 20-17 victory over East Carolina in last year's Liberty Bowl. This marks the first-ever meeting between these two programs on the gridiron. The Buckeyes, who went 11-1 this season, shared the Big Ten title with Michigan State and Wisconsin, and earned their sixth straight BCS Bowl bid and ninth overall, the most among all FBS schools.

The lone loss in Madison against the Badgers (31-18) in mid-October kept the team out of the national title picture. Still, OSU rebounded from that loss with five straight victories and became the first school in Big Ten history to win at least 10 games in six consecutive seasons. However, all did not go according to plan for Jim Tressel and the Buckeyes, as an NCAA investigation left five players' status for this game in question, including star quarterback Terrelle Pryor. The five in question will be suspended for the first five games next season and were recently cleared to play in this game, providing they gave a commitment to return to Columbus next year. Tressel commented on the distraction leading up to game time.

"Anytime you spend time on anything that's a little bit of a distraction, but we are fortunate in this particular case playing in the Sugar Bowl against a well-coached team like Arkansas. All you have to do is turn that film on and think about your good fortune to be in a BCS game and so forth. You can try to make up that time, but you know just like anything else you invest your time in certain things and wish you had more time for others. But with a little bit later game being January 4th it has given us an opportunity to take care of what we need to and when things come up you take care of them. When game time hits on January 4th we will be ready."

The Buckeyes are 19-22 in postseason history dating back to the 1921 Rose Bowl and are a solid 5-3 in eight previous BCS games. The team had dropped three straight bowl games, including two BCS Title games prior to last year's 26-17 victory over Oregon in the Rose Bowl. Bobby Petrino's Razorbacks were viewed as an SEC contender earlier in the season and went a solid 10-2 overall, but on the biggest stages in SEC play, Arkansas came up just short, falling at home to Alabama (24-20) at the end of September and then again in mid-October at Auburn (65-43). Pryor's suspension will cover the first five games of next season, so having him on the field against Arkansas is a huge plus. One of the nation's top dual threats, Pryor was the orchestrator of an offensive that amassed almost 450 yards total per game, with tremendous balance. One of the few teams in the country with over 200 yards both rushing (219.7 ypg) and passing (229.2 ypg), the Buckeyes keep opposing defenses guessing.

Pryor certainly matured as a passer this season, completing an efficient 65.8 percent of his throws, for 2,551 yards and 25 TDs. it certainly helped to have a pair of capable outlets down the field in wideouts Dane Sanzenbacker (52 receptions, 889 yards, 10 TDs) and DeVier Posey (50 receptions, 778 yards, six TDs). Posey will miss the first five games next season, as he was one of the five players involved in the recent transgressions. As potent as the passing game was at times, everything on offense works off the strong ground game. Tailback Dan Herron, who will also sit the first five games in 2011, had a strong 2010 in Columbus, rumbling for 1,068 yards and 15 TDs on 5.6 yards per carry. Pryor got involved as well, ranking second with 639 yards and four scores.

Arkansas defensive coordinator Willy Robinson knows Pryor is the main priority for his squad, especially as he relates to the rushing attack. "Their running game is very direct. They have some misdirection stuff a little bit. The guy we still have to defend is their quarterback. He's the one you usually don't account for. He's not unlike the other quarterbacks we've faced. He's very dynamic, and they do a lot of different things with him."

Everyone knows what to expect from an Ohio State defense and this year proved to be a lot of the same. The Buckeyes really made things difficult for the opposition, holding foes to a meager 13.3 ppg (third nationally) on 250.6 yards of total offense (second nationally). Linebacker Brian Rolle made big plays all over the field this season, leading the team with 70 tackles, with 10.0 TFLs, 2.5 sacks, two INTs and one fumble recovery. Fellow LB Ross Homan (63 tackles, 2.0 TFLs, one sacks) made his fair share of plays as well. Up front, the team looks to Nathan Williams (44 tackles, 9.5 TFLs, 4.5 sacks) and Cameron Heyward (42 tackles, 9.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks) to lead the way.

The Razorbacks have their own balanced offensive attack, but in their case, the pass sets up the run. The team comes into the Sugar Bowl averaging 489.2 yards of total offense, with 338.4 coming via the pass. Arkansas is led by standout signal-caller Ryan Mallett under center. The 6-6, 240-pound gunslinger came into the season as one of the most highly regarded passers in the nation and he certainly lived up to the hype, throwing for 3,592 yards and 30 TDs. Mallett has spread the ball around this season, with six different receivers hauling in four TD strikes or more. Tight end D.J. Williams led the way among pass catchers, with 49 receptions, for 589 yard and four TDs. The ground game is much more than an afterthought in Fayetteville and tailback Knile Davis can make opponents pay for concentrating too much on Mallett. The 6-0, 220-pound sophomore had a tremendous campaign in 2010, rushing for 1,183 yards and 13 TDs, on a hefty 6.6 yards per carry.

The Arkansas defense showed flashes of strong play this season but in other games, the unit struggled. The result was a team that allowed 22.8 ppg this year. One of the main areas of concern has to be the rush defense, which allowed 157.4 yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry. Still, big plays were common for this squad, which piled up 90 TFLs, a whopping 37 sacks and 25 takeaways. Middle linebacker Jerry Franklin had an impressive junior season, racking up a team-high 93 tackles, with 12.5 TFLs, 6.5 sacks and one forced fumble. Defensive ends Jake Bequette (31 tackles, 8.0 TFLs, 7.0 sacks) and Tenarius Wright (36 tackles, 8.0 TFLs, 6.0 sacks) have made things difficult for opposing QBs. Safeties Tramain Thomas (71 tackles. four INTs) and Rudell Crim (48 tackles, three INTs) headline the play in the secondary.

• PREGAME NOTES
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All is well with the Razorbacks as big boss Bobby Petrino is one happy Hog after signing a lucrative seven-year contract extension. And he has every right to feel confident about this matchup as his team more than held its own against fellow bowlers this season, going 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS. Arkansas also owns a huge strength-of-schedule edge: the Hogs’ lined foes finished with a strong 72-39 SU effort while Ohio State’s lined opponents struggled to a losing mark at 60-69. Jim Tressel’s Buckeyes once again fielded a traditionally stout defense in 2010, holding 10 of 12 foes to season-low – or 2nd low – yards.

But tonight’s Duel in the Dome marks just the 5th time this season that the Bucks have left Columbus in their rear-view mirror. We’re sure you’re already aware that OSU has flopped in postseason action against the SEC, going 0-8 SU and ATS since 1990. However, you probably don’t know that SEC bowl dogs are 16-6 ATS when taking on an opponent off a SU win. The Razorbacks’ two losses this year came against the cream of their conference, Alabama and Auburn, so they shouldn’t feel outclassed here. “It’s rare that games with such great potential seldom deliver but let’s hope this one turns out to be the exception to the rule.!”

• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--OHIO ST is 39-21 ATS (+15.9 Units) vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game since 1992.
The average score was OHIO ST 27.7, OPPONENT 19.4 - (Rating = 3*)

--OHIO ST is 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OHIO ST 35.2, OPPONENT 13.7 - (Rating = 5*)

--OHIO ST is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OHIO ST 35.7, OPPONENT 13.0 - (Rating = 4*)

--OHIO ST is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) against SEC opponents since 1992.
The average score was OHIO ST 16.9, OPPONENT 28.4 - (Rating = 3*)

--ARKANSAS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games this season.
The average score was ARKANSAS 36.5, OPPONENT 21.8 - (Rating = 4*)

--ARKANSAS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ARKANSAS 38.1, OPPONENT 22.3 - (Rating = 3*)

ARKANSAS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games this season.
The average score was ARKANSAS 38.3, OPPONENT 22.4 - (Rating = 3*)

--ARKANSAS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ARKANSAS 36.2, OPPONENT 26.0 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--OHIO ST is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers this season.
The average score was OHIO ST 43.3, OPPONENT 17.7 - (Rating = 3*)

--ARKANSAS is 18-4 OVER (+13.4 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARKANSAS 33.7, OPPONENT 26.0 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--OHIO ST is 4-16 against the 1rst half line (-13.4 Units) in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game since 1992.
The average score was OHIO ST 11.2, OPPONENT 14.7 - (Rating = 3*)

--ARKANSAS is 9-1 against the 1rst half line (+7.9 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ARKANSAS 22.1, OPPONENT 10.9 - (Rating = 3*)

--ARKANSAS is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
The average score was ARKANSAS 24.4, OPPONENT 10.9 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--ARKANSAS is 7-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread this season.
The average score was ARKANSAS 23.2, OPPONENT 16.7 - (Rating = 3*)

--ARKANSAS is 7-1 OVER (+5.9 Units) the 1rst half total after the first month of the season this season.
The average score was ARKANSAS 24.0, OPPONENT 14.6 - (Rating = 3*)

--ARKANSAS is 7-1 OVER (+5.9 Units) the 1rst half total after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games this season.
The average score was ARKANSAS 24.0, OPPONENT 14.6 - (Rating = 3*)

--ARKANSAS is 7-1 OVER (+5.9 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread this season.
The average score was ARKANSAS 23.5, OPPONENT 15.1 - (Rating = 3*)

• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (ARKANSAS) - in a game involving two excellent offensive teams (>=440 YPG), after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.
(33-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (80.5%, +24.2 units. Rating = 4*)

The average total posted in these games was: 60.8
The average score in these games was: Team 36.3, Opponent 38.2 (Total points scored = 74.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 29 (70.7% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (6-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-3).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (41-15).

--PLAY OVER - All teams where the first half total is 28.5 to 31.5 (ARKANSAS) - after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite, in the second half of the season.
(30-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.9%, +21.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 29.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 20.8, Opponent 13.7 (Total first half points scored = 34.5)

The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (35-11).

[Udog]

NCAAF


Thursday, January 6

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Game of the day: Middle Tennessee St. vs. Miami (Ohio)
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Middle Tennessee State vs. Miami (Ohio) (+2, 28.5)

THE SKINNY: The RedHawks have been the nation's most improved college football team this year, going from one to nine victories and winning the Mid-American Conference championship.

Miami coach Michael Haywood was named MAC Coach of the Year following the 9-4 season. Miami won its final five games of the season, which included three consecutive road wins against Buffalo, Bowling Green and Akron. But Haywood was hired away by Pittsburgh and subsequently fired after an arrest on domestic battery charges.

Miami-OH hired Michigan State assistant Don Treadwell as its next head coach on Dec. 31. Treadwell will be in attendance, but defensive backs coach Lance Guidry will coach the RedHawks against Middle Tennessee.

Middle Tennessee only has a 6-6 overall record, but the Blue Raiders won their last three games to become bowl eligible. MTSU has played a tougher schedule, with games against Minnesota, at Memphis and at Georgia Tech.

MIAMI'S EDGE: The strength for the RedHawks is their rushing defense, which allows only 121.38 yards per game and ranks 19th in the nation. Only two of their last eight opponents have rushed for more than 100 yards again Miami. Jerrell Wedge (88 tackles, 14.5 tackles for loss) and Evan Harris (85 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss) lead the RedHawks.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE'S EDGE: The Blue Raiders have an outstanding running game that averages 178.50 yards per game (32nd in the nation) and score a respectable 27.5 points per game.

They feature a solid group of runners, led by Phillip Tanner (841 yards, 11 touchdowns), who ranked fourth in the Sun Belt Conference. D.D. Kyles (390 yards, four TDs), Benjamin Cunningham (348 yards, four TDs) and quarterback Dwight Dasher (453, 7 TDs) round out a solid group of backs.

THE QUARTERBACKS: This is a question mark for Miami, where Zac Dysert took a shot to the chest against Bowling Green and suffered a lacerated spleen. Although he finished that game – and led the team to a game-winning field goal – Dysert sat out the last three games. He had thrown for 2,406 yards and 13 touchdowns. Redshirt freshman Austin Boucher picked up the slack by throwing for 831 yards and four touchdowns in the last three games.

Of course, it helps to have a receiver like Armand Robinson on the team. The senior caught 90 passes for 981 yards and six touchdowns and was named Miami's Offensive Player of the Year.

MTSU's Dwight Dasher made his first start in the fifth week against Troy. Since then he's completed 127 of 222 passes for 1,388 yards and seven touchdowns. But Dasher is really more of a runner and isn't the most accurate; he's been intercepted 14 times, although eight of those came in two games. MTSU isn't likely to win if Dasher is expected throw the ball 50 times. He's considered more of an on-field manager than a game changer.

NFL PROSPECTS: Miami – WR Armand Robinson. Middle Tennessee – S Kevin Brown, CB Roderick Issac, OLB Jamari Lattimore, QB Dwight Dasher.

BOWL HISTORY: Miami will be going to its first bowl game since 2004, when it lost to Iowa State in the Independence Bowl. The RedHawks are 6-2 in bowls, including a three-year stretch of wins from 1973-75 in the Tangerine Bowl that included victories over Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. Middle Tennessee is 1-1 in its short bowl history, including last year's victory over Southern Miss in the New Orleans Bowl.

ETC.: There is a possibility that Miami linebacker Ryan Kennedy will return for the GoDaddy.com Bowl. He tore his MCL in September and has not played since; he was leading the team in tackles at the time of his injury. MTSU may be without reserve receiver Jamar Brown, who missed the last four games with a leg injury.

BETTING TRENDS

Blue Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games.

Redhawks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.

The under is 7-1 in Miami’s last eight non-conference games.

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[Udog]

NCAAF
Write-Up


Thursday, January 6

Middle Tennessee QB Dasher was suspended by NCAA for first four games of year; Blue Raiders went 2-2 in those games, then went 1-4 in Dasher's first five games, before winning their last three games, two by a single point, to earn a spot here. MTSU is 1-1 in bowl games, beating Southern Miss 42-32 (+3.5) in New Orleans Bowl LY, losing 31-14 in Motor City Bowl back in '06. State was +12 in turnovers LY; they're -16 this year, and still have 6-6 record. Go figure.

Miami OH is in its first bowl since 2004, so they're excited to be here; Red Hawks did so well this year their coach got the Pitt job, but then he got fired last week for off-field issues, after three weeks on job. No clue how all that affects these kids. Miami went from -24 to +7 in turnovers this season, which explains going from 1-11 to 8-4; they won their last five games, upsetting Northern Illinois as 17-point dog in MAC title tilt. Miami's QB was hurt during year, but could return for this game.

Underdogs are 2-0-1 vs spread in this bowl last three years, with average total of only 40.5 in four years of this bowl. Middle Tennessee figures to have edge in crowd support, based on geography. These teams don't get on TV a whole lot, so they'd be excited even if it wasn't a bowl game.

[Udog]

NCAAF


Thursday, January 6

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Tips and Trends
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Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders vs Miami of Ohio Redhawks [ESPN | 8:00 PM ET]

BLUE RAIDERS: (-2, O/U 48.5) Middle Tennessee St. had to win their final 3 games in order to qualify for a bowl berth. The Blue Raiders finally lived up to some expectations in doing just that. MTSU was expected to do great things this season, yet their talent never showed on the field. The Blue Raiders finished the regular season just 6-6 SU and 4-8 ATS. MTSU was 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS away from home this year. The Blue Raiders were 2-5 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. The Blue Raiders are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU win. Middle Tennessee St. is 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games following an ATS win. The Blue Raiders are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as the listed favorite. Middle Tennessee St. is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. The Blue Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.

Blue Raiders are 4-1 ATS against a team with a winning record.
Under is 6-2 last 8 games as a favorite.

Key Injuries - OL Alex Stuart (knee) is out.

Projected Score: 27 (SIDE of the Day)

REDHAWKS: No team had a bigger improvement in their winning percentage from last season than Miami of Ohio. One year after winning just 1 game, the Redhawks went 9-4 SU and 8-5 ATS. The Redhawks were so successful this year, they've already had their head coached hired elsewhere. Miami of Ohio won the MAC title thanks to an improbable win over Northern Illinois, a win that even shocked the Redhawks players. Miami of Ohio was 4-3 both SU and ATS this year on the road. Miami of Ohio was 2-1 ATS this season as a single digit underdog. The Redhawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Miami of Ohio is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win. The Redhawks are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog up to a field goal. The Redhawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

Redhawks are 4-1 ATS last 5 games overall.
Under is 4-0 last 4 neutral site games as an underdog.

Key Injuries - QB Zac Dysert (stomach) is doubtful.

Projected Score: 17


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Friday, January 7

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Cotton Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Cotton Bowl: LSU Tigers vs. Texas A&M Aggies (-2, 49)

The Skinny: Louisiana State (10-2) and its two-quarterback offensive attack did not look anything like the Tigers teams that won a pair of National Championships in the last decade but that didn’t stop them from coming darn close again in 2010. With its usually strong defense and coach Les Miles’ bag of tricks, LSU was in contention for a BCS berth until the final weekend of the regular season when it fell to Arkansas and dropped out of the BCS top 5.

Texas A&M (9-3) had a shot at a BCS bowl until the last weekend as well, missing out on the Big 12 Championship game due to a tiebreaker. The Aggies finished with six straight wins in the Big 12, knocking off division winners Nebraska and Oklahoma. The turning point came when Ryan Tannehill stepped in at quarterback against Kansas. The team hasn’t lost since.

Point Spread: LSU -2. Over/Under 49.

The spread opened with Texas A&M set as a 1-point favorite but has since been bet up to -2. The total has moved half a point since post, to 49 points.

LSU’s Edge: Creativity. Few are better than Miles at keeping opposing defenses on their toes. The quarterback rotation is just part of the fun for the Tigers, who will use any number of trick plays at the end of games to get that one last score. Of course, ranking eighth in the nation in defense doesn’t hurt, either. It’s that unit that keeps them in games long enough for Miles to play the gambler.

Texas A&M’s Edge: Balance. The Aggies can beat you through the air with the combination of Tannehill to Jeff Fuller and pound away on the ground as well. Losing top running back Christine Michael to a broken leg midseason did not faze Texas A&M at all, as Cyrus Gray stepped up and finished the season with six straight 100-yard games, averaging 6.3 yards per carry.

The Aggies are equally adept at stopping the run, ranking 15th in the nation and first in the Big 12 in rushing defense.

The Quarterbacks: LSU’s tandem of Jarrett Lee and Jordan Jefferson has struggled mightily at times, combining for six touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Jefferson accounts for 10 of those picks as the primary signal caller.

Tannehill has made only five starts after coming on in relief on Oct. 23 against Kansas, but has piled up 1,434 yards and 11 touchdowns against three interceptions. The 6-foot-4 junior is completing 65.3 percent of his passes.

NFL Prospects: LSU — CB Patrick Peterson, WR Terrence Toliver, OLB Kelvin Sheppard, DT Drake Nevis, OT Joe Barksdale, RB Stevan Ridley.
Texas A&M — OLB Von Miller, WR Jeff Fuller

Bowl history: LSU is 21-17-1 all-time in bowl games and has won four of five under Miles, including the 2007 National Championship game over Ohio State. Miles’ lone loss came in the Capital One Bowl last year, when the Tigers fell to Penn State, 19-17.

Texas A&M is 13-18 all-time in bowl games and has lost 13 of its last 15. Five of those losses came in the Cotton Bowl, most recently in 2004 against Tennessee. The Aggies were invited to the Independence Bowl last season, dropping a 44-20 decision to Georgia.

Trends

- Aggies are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six vs. SEC.
- Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last five bowl games as an underdog.
- Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games.
- Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
- Under is 4-0 in Aggies' last four games vs. SEC.
- Under is 5-2 in Tigers' last seven non-conference games.


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Friday, January 7

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Tips and Trends
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Texas AM Aggies vs LSU Tigers [ESPN | 8:00 PM ET]

AGGIES: Texas AM has won their past 6 games SU, and entered the Bowl season as one of the hottest teams in the nation. The Aggies have been brilliant of late, beating both Oklahoma and Nebraska recently. Texas AM is also 8-4 ATS this season, proving just how underrated this team really is. The Aggies are 3-1 both SU and ATS away from home this season. The Aggies are 2-2 ATS as the listed underdog this year. QB Ryan Tannehill has been brilliant since taking over at QB, as he's thrown for more than 1,400 YDS and 11 TD's in his brief time under center. Texas AM is averaging 31.8 PPG this year, 34st best in the country. This Aggies defense is underrated because of the success of their offense, but they were able to hold Oklahoma and Nebraska to a combined 25 PTS. The Aggies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Texas AM is 4-0 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Aggies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Texas AM is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. The Aggies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games. Texas AM is 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the SEC.

Aggies are 0-7 ATS last 7 neutral site games.
Under is 4-1 last 5 bowl games.

Key Injuries - WR Ryan Swope (foot) is probable.

Projected Score: 27 (SIDE of the Day)

TIGERS: (-1.5, O/U 49) LSU comes into the Cotton Bowl with a 10-2 SU and 5-7 ATS overall record this year. The Tigers are ranked 11th in the country, thanks to a world class defense. Both of the Tigers SU losses this year have come away from home. LSU is 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS away from home this season. The Tigers are 1-2 ATS as a single digit favorite this year. The biggest reason LSU has struggled this season from an ATS standpoint is because of their anemic offense. The Tigers rely on their rushing attack, because their passing game is anemic. LSU averages 28.8 PPG this season, just 51st in the country. RB Steven Ridley has rushed for more than 1,000 YDS this season, including 14 TD's. Defensively, LSU is allowing just 17.8 PPG, 11th best in the nation. The Tigers are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite up to a field goal. Texas AM is 2-5 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

Tigers are 4-1 ATS last 5 bowl games.
Under is 13-3 last 16 games following an ATS loss.

Key Injuries - RB Steven Ridley (academics) is probable.

Projected Score: 23


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Write-Up


Friday, January 7

Cotton Bowl, Arlington
LSU got good news when RB Ridley (grades) was cleared to play; they are 4-1 in last five bowls (were dog in two of the four wins), scoring 38+ points in all four wins, losing to Penn State 19-17 on a muddy track (the field was replaced by Field Turf after) LY. Tigers have QB issues, there's a chance coach Miles could go to Michigan (he played his college football there), so they have distraction issues. LSU is young, as QB Jefferson is junior- they have only one senior starter on OL.

Texas A&M got hot when they changed QBs, winning last six games, the last five all against bowl teams. QB Taneyhill was actually A&M's #1 WR in 2008, now he is the QB. Big 12 teams covered twice in last nine appearances in Cotton Bowls; Aggies played in this terrific stadium last two years, losing to Arkansas both times. A&M lost its last four bowls by average score of 38-14; their last bowl win was 2001.

Big 12 teams lost six of last seven Cotton Bowls, losing last three, all by 13+ points; losing side scored 14 or less points in five of last six Cotton Bowls. Game is now indoors, after being in actual Cotton Bowl where weather was sometimes a factor. Favorites covered three of last four.

[Udog]

NCAAF


Saturday, January 8

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BBVA Compass Bowl: What bettors need to know
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BBVA Compass Bowl: Kentucky Wildcats vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (-3.5, 52.5)

The Skinny: Pitt has plenty of distractions to put aside when it faces 6-6 Kentucky (6-6 ATS) in Saturday's Compass Bowl. The Panthers (7-5, 6-4-2 ATS) will be led by interim head coach Phil Bennett, their third coach in the last month. Dave Wannstedt resigned under pressure following a 7-5 season. Pitt hired Miami-Ohio coach Mike Haywood, but the deal lasted less than a week. Haywood was arrested on a domestic battery charge and was terminated.

Kentucky also has its fair of distractions, after starting quarterback Mike Hartline was suspended after alcohol-related arrest. The Wildcats are led by first-year coach Joker Phillips, a native of the state who was promoted when Rich Brooks resigned last January.

The game promises to be a battle between the Pitt defense, annually one of the best in the Big East, against an explosive Kentucky offense that averages 33 points per game. It remains to be seen how the Wildcats will do against another strong defense; they struggled against Florida, Mississippi State and an improving Tennessee.

Point Spread: Pitt -3.5. Over/under – 52.5.

This spread has remained fairly steady for the amount of drama surrounding the game. Pitt was as low as -2.5 but has since been bet up to over a field-goal favorite. The total opened at 52.5 and spent some time at 53 before coming back to the original number.

Pitt's edge: The Panthers are a strong defensive team. Senior defensive end Jabaal Sheard was named the Big East Defensive Player of the Year, the third straight year a Panther has earned the award. Sheard had 52 tackles, 14.5 tackles for loss, nine sacks, four forced fumbles and one fumble recovery. Pitt ranks 11th in the nation in total defense (304.25 yards) and 22nd in scoring defense, allowing just 19.75 points per game. Beware of Brandon Lindsey, who has 10 sacks and 16 tackles for loss.

Kentucky's edge: Befitting coach Phillips' former role as offensive coordinator, the Wildcats do some inventive things with the ball. Sophomore quarterback Morgan Newton will step in for Hartline, but expect Kentucky to use the athletic Randall Cobb in a Wildcat formation to take advantage of his elusiveness and various skills; Cobb has rushed for 401 yards and five touchdowns, and three of his five completions have gone for a touchdown.

The Quarterbacks: Pitt's Tino Sunseri has been reliable since earning the job. He's thrown for 2,476 yards and 15 touchdowns, including a 307-yard effort against Rutgers. Newton saw limited action this season, but made a handful of starts during his freshman season. He's a big, athletic quarterback but, like most young signal-callers, has struggled with consistency.

NFL Prospects: Pitt – DE Greg Romeus, SS Dom DeCicco. Kentucky – RB Derrick Locke, WR Chris Matthews, QB Mike Hartline, DE DeQuin Evans.

Bowl history: Pitt has an 11-15 record in bowl games and is coming off a 19-17 win over North Carolina in the Meineke Car Care Bowl. Kentucky, which is making a school-record fifth consecutive bowl appearance, has an 8-6 record. The Wildcats dropped a 21-13 decision to Clemson last year, which broke a three-game bowl winning streak. Neither team has appeared in the Compass Bowl.

Etc.: Pitt defensive end Greg Romeus tore the ACL in his right knee in November and is out, one of the team's four season-ending knee injuries. Running back Ray Graham (back) should be back. Kentucky suspended defensive tackle Mark Crawford for violating team rules; it was his second suspension of the year. Defensive end Nermin Delic (shoulder) and linebacker Qua Huzzie (shoulder) remain questionable.

Weather: The forecast for Legion Field in Birmingham, Alabama is calling for sun and medium winds, blowing northwest at 15 mph. Game-time temperatures will be in the mid 40s.

Trends:

- Wildcats are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games.
- Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five bowl games.
- Under is 5-2 in Wildcats last seven games vs. Big East.
- Under is 4-0 in Panthers last four Bowl games.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Write-Up


Saturday, January 8

Compass Bowl
Birmingham
Kentucky won three of last four bowl games under underrated veteran coach Brooks- they were underdog in two of those three bowl wins; this is first bowl game for Phillips, who had to suspend QB Hartline for this game after kid got arrested- soph QB Newton had 8 starts LY (56%, 706 PY, six TDs, 3 INT) and gets nod here. Would also expect to see former QB/current WR Cobb in Wildcat formation. Birmingham is SEC country; Wildcats figure to have crowd edge.

Pitt fired Wannstedt, replaced him with Miami OH coach Heywood and fired him three weeks later after arrest for felony domestic violence, but Wannstedt won't coach team, DC Bennett will. Panthers have first-year QB; they won six of last eight games, but are 1-3 when held to less than 20 points (6-2 if they score 20+). Panthers lost three of last four bowls, scoring total of 42 points, with only win by two points.

Big East teams are 4-0 in Compass Bowl, which used to be Papa John's Bowl, even though game is in heart of SEC country. Underdogs are 2-0-1 vs spread in this game the last three years. Average total in bowl: 40.5.

[Udog]

NCAAF


Sunday, January 9

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Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Boston College Eagles vs. Nevada Wolf Pack (-7.5, 55)

The Skinny: The Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl matches Western Athletic Conference co-champion Nevada (12-1, 7-6 ATS) against a 7-5 (5-7 ATS) Boston College team which struggled early before rallying into the middle of the ACC pack. Nevada, ranked 15th in the USA Today Coaches' Poll, had its best season in history, highlighted by a 34-31 upset of then No. 3 Boise State on the day after Thanksgiving. Both teams come in on a roll. Boston College has won its last five games and the Wolf Pack their last six of the regular season.

Point Spread: Nevada -7.5. Over/under 55.

This spread opened at 9.5 and has been bet down to 7.5 in the week’s heading into Sunday’s game. The total, however, has remained steady at 55 points.

Nevada’s Edge: Offense, offense, offense. The Wolf Pack have one of the most prolific attacks in the nation, ranking third in both rushing (305.9 yards per game) and total offense (535.5). They do a great job protecting the quarterback, giving up just 11 sacks all year. Running back Vai Tau has 1,534 yards and 19 touchdowns rushing.

The Wolf Pack play respectable if not spectacular defense, ranking 65th in the nation at 377.3 yards per game. They're lining up against a BC offense that had trouble moving the ball and points, ranking 103rd in both total offense and pass efficiency. Nevada lineman Donday Moch is fifth in the nation with 22 tackles for loss and has 8.5 sacks.

Boston College’s Edge: Defense, defense, defense. The Eagles lead the nation in rushing defense (80.2 yards per game) and are 14th in overall defense. They've held opponents to a 2.7-yard rushing average and allowed just seven touchdowns on the ground. BC has given up 229.8 passing yards a game but ranks 22nd in pass efficiency defense.

Sophomore linebacker Luke Kuechly led the nation in total tackles 171 and was runner-up for the Butkus Award as the nation's outstanding linebacker. Defensive end Max Holloway has 13 tackles for loss and four sacks. Offensively, BC has to ride junior running back Montel Harris, who led the ACC with 1,243 rushing yards and scored eight of the Eagles' nine rushing touchdowns.

The Quarterbacks: Nevada senior Colin Kaepernick is the only player in college football history to pass for more than 9,000 yards and rush for more than 4,000. He is tied with Nebraska's Heisman winner Eric Crouch for the NCAA record in touchdowns rushing by a quarterback with 59. This season, Kaepernick has rushed for 1,184 yards and 20 touchdowns and passed for 2,830 yards with 20 touchdowns, seven interceptions and a .653 completion rate. He ranks ninth in the nation in total offense with 308.8 yards a game.

Boston College true freshman Chase Rettig moved into the starting job a third of the way through the season. He has thrown for 1,117 yards, six touchdowns and seven interceptions and has a low pass efficiency rating of 115.3.

Bowl History: Boston College is going to its 12th straight bowl game. It's 13-8 all-time in bowls, including an eight-game winning streak from 2000 through 2007. But the Eagles lost their last two, the Music City Bowl against Vanderbilt in 2008 and the Kraft Bowl to Southern Cal last year. Nevada is making its sixth straight bowl trip and is 3-6 all-time, losing its past four.

Etc.: Boston College won its last five games without scoring more than 23 points, holding opponents to an average of 11.8 during that span. The Eagles were held below 20 points seven times during the season. Nevada has averaged 42.6 points a game. ... Look for Nevada to have a huge edge in fan support, playing in San Francisco, less than four hours away from its Reno campus, against an East Coast school that made the same trip last year.

Weather: The forecast in San Francisco is calling for partially cloudy skies with light winds, blowing northwest at 7 mph. Game-time temperatures will be in the mid 50s.

Trends:

- Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four bowl games.
- Wolf Pack are 1-4 ATS in their last five bowl games.
- Under is 12-1 in Eagles’ last 13 non-conference games.
- Under is 5-2 in Wolf Pack’s last seven games following a SU win.

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[Udog]

What bettors need to know: Oregon vs. Auburn

The SEC is a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS in BCS championship

Oregon Ducks vs. Auburn Tigers (-2, 74)

THE SKINNY: Two of the nation's most prolific offenses and two of the country's most explosive offensive players will square off for the BCS Championship on Jan. 10, when Auburn and Oregon look to cap their perfect seasons with a national title.

Auburn quarterback Cam Newton and Oregon running back LaMichael James weren't Heisman Trophy finalists by accident. Newton, who bested James and the other finalists for the Heisman, has passed for 2,589 yards with 28 touchdowns and six interceptions, and he has added 1,409 rushing yards and 20 more scores. James has been just as effective on the ground, rushing for 1,682 yards and finding pay dirt 21 times.

Both teams are going to put up some points -- Oregon averaged 49.3 in the regular season, and Auburn wasn't far behind at 42.7 -- so the national title could come down to which defense can make a couple of stops.

AUBURN’S EDGE: The Tigers have the distinct advantage of knowing the best player on the field will have the ball in his hands on every snap when they have possession. No one has managed to stop Newton this season, and he has proven his ability to take what the defense gives and beat quality opponents with either his arm or his legs.

OREGON’S EDGE: For all the talk about the explosive offenses -- and the Ducks certainly qualify in that regard, leading the nation in scoring and ranking second in total offense -- Oregon's defense might be its greatest asset against Auburn. The Ducks are 14th in the nation in scoring defense, allowing 18.4 points per game, but they haven't faced an offense as capable as Auburn's.

THE QUARTERBACKS: By now, you know all there is to know about Auburn's Cam Newton -- that his father worked with an agent to try to orchestrate a pay-for-play scheme, that he was deemed ineligible and immediately reinstated by the NCAA before the SEC title game, and that he had arguably one of the greatest seasons by an offensive player in college football history. Newton leads the nation in passing efficiency, ranks 15th in rushing and has accounted for 49 touchdowns.

All of that makes Oregon's Darron Thomas the forgotten quarterback in this game, a pretty incredible fact considering the season Thomas put together. The sophomore from Houston completed 60.7 percent of his passes for 2,518 yards with 28 touchdown and seven interceptions, and he rushed for 488 yards and five scores.

NFL PROSPECTS: Auburn -- DT Nick Fairley, QB Cam Newton, OT Lee Ziemba. Oregon -- RB LaMichael James, LB Casey Matthews, DT Brandon Bair.

BOWL HISTORY: Auburn is 20-13-2 all-time in bowl games and has pulled off dramatic victories in its past three. The Tigers beat Nebraska 17-14 in the 2006 Cotton Bowl, and needed overtime to win their last two bowls, beating Clemson 23-20 in the 2007 Chick-fil-A Bowl and knocking off Northwestern 38-35 in last year's Outback Bowl.

The Ducks have a spotty bowl history -- they're 9-14 all-time in bowl games -- and it has been even worse in recent years, as they've lost five of their last seven. Oregon is 1-1 in BCS bowls, beating Colorado 38-16 in the 2002 Fiesta Bowl and losing to Ohio State 26-17 in last year's Rose Bowl.

ETC.: Both coaches -- Auburn's Gene Chizik and Oregon's Chip Kelly - are in the second year with their respective programs. … Auburn had to comeback to win eight of its 13 games so far this season, rallying from double-digit deficits four times.

BETTING TRENDS

The SEC is 6-0 straight up and against the spread in national championship games since the BCS era began in 1998.

The Ducks are 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games as underdogs but are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.

Auburn is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games and 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a favorite. The Tigers are, however, just 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games.

The under is 4-1 in Oregon’s last five bowl games but the over is 4-1 in the team’s last five non-conference games.

The under is also 7-1 in Auburn’s last eight bowl games.

[Udog]

BCS Championship


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Tips and Trends
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Oregon Ducks vs Auburn Tigers [FOX | 8:30 PM ET]

DUCKS: Oregon has been so dominant in their undefeated season that they've won every game by double figures except once. The Ducks are 12-0 SU and 7-4-1 ATS overall this season. Oregon is 6-0 SU and 3-3 ATS away from home this season. The Ducks are playing their first game of the season as the listed underdog. No offense in the country scored more frequently than the Oregon, as they averaged a nation best 49.3 PPG. The Ducks averaged 303.8 rushing YPG this year, 4th best in the nation. RB LaMichael James rushed for 1,682 YDS and 21 TD's this year for the Ducks. WR Jeff Maehl had 943 receiving YDS and 12 TD's this season for Oregon. Defensively, Oregon is quite underrated, as they are overshadowed by their dynamic offense. The Ducks allowed just 18.4 PPG this year, 12th fewest in the country. The Ducks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Oregon is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog up to a field goal. The Ducks are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS win. Oregon is 3-7 ATS against a team with a winning record.

Ducks are 5-1 ATS last 6 bowl games as the listed underdog.
Over is 14-5 last 19 games overall.

Key Injuries - WR Nick Cole (knee) is questionable.

Projected Score: 41 (SIDE of the Day)

TIGERS: (-2, O/U 73.5) Auburn has outperformed expectations all year long, and now they find themselves one win away from a BCS National Championship. The Tigers are 13-0 SU and 9-4 ATS overall this season. Auburn is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS away from home this year. Auburn is 7-2 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. QB Cam Newton has been brilliant this year in winning the Heisman Trophy. Newton has clearly been the best player in the nation, as well as it's most valuable. Newton has totaled nearly 4,000 YDS from scrimmage this year, including 48 TD's. The Tigers averaged 42.7 PPG this season, 4th most in the country. The lone weak spot for Auburn is their defense, as they allowed 24.5 PPG this season, just 54th best in the nation. The Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win. Auburn is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as the listed favorite. The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. Auburn is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on grass. The Tigers are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Auburn is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

Tigers are 4-0 ATS against a team with a winning record.
Under is 7-1 last 8 Bowl games.

Key Injuries - LB Craig Stevens (wrist) is probable.

Projected Score: 37


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[Udog]

BCS Championship
Write-Up


Glendale
Auburn won three games by 3 points each, beat LSU by 7 and was down 24-0 to Alabama before rallying for 28-27 win; playing in the SEC makes teams tough. Tigers are 8-4 vs spread as favorites, hammering Georgia, South Carolina at end of regular season. Auburn is 4-1 in last five bowls, with all four wins by 3 points, the last two in OT. QBs who won the Heisman Trophy are 2-6 SU in their last eight bowls.

Oregon scored 37+ points in every game but one, a 15-13 win at Cal on Nov 13; other than that game, their 42-31 win over Arizona State was the closest game they played all year. Ducks use no-huddle, fast-paced attack that wears out the opposing defense. Oregon is 2-3 in its last five bowls, losing 26-17 to Ohio State in LY's Rose Bowl. Game being out west has to help Ducks some, but their lack of competitive 4th quarters probably hurt them- this game figures to be close.

Say what you want, but fact is, SEC teams are 5-0 in national title game over last seven years, with favorites covering last three; average total in last six national title games is 61.0. This is the first SEC-Pac-10 bowl in 21 years, it figures to be a high-scoring classic. With teams having 37 days since their last game, hard to imagine either offense being precise.