NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Bowl Season (12/18 - 1/10)

[Udog]

NCAAF


Friday, December 24

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What bettors need to know: Hawaii Bowl
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Tulsa at Hawaii (-10, 73.5)

The Skinny: A pair of teams on a roll that feature prolific offenses face off when Hawaii and Tulsa meet in the Hawaii Bowl on Dec. 24.

Hawaii (10-3) earned a share of the Western Athletic Conference title with Boise State and Nevada and posted its sixth 10-win season in school history. The Warriors have a chance for their third 11-win season since 2006.

Tulsa (9-3) bounced back from its first losing season since 2004 and earned its fifth bowl bid in six years.

Hawaii’s edge: Quarterback Bryant Moniz is one of the country’s best offensive threats yet goes under the radar playing in the same conference as Heisman Trophy finalist Kellen Moore of Boise State and Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick.

Moniz leads the nation in total offense and is 10th in pass efficiency at 161.94. He is a big reason the Warriors are ninth in the nation in scoring offense at 39.9 points per game.

Tulsa’s Edge: Balance. The Golden Hurricane rank among the top 15 nationally in passing and rushing yards per game. If they can mix in the run and sustain drives, they will be able to control tempo and keep the vaunted Warriors' offense off the field and also quiet the home crowd.

The Quarterbacks: Moniz had a huge junior season, throwing for 4,629 yards and 36 touchdowns as the offense looked much like it did in its heyday under gunslingers Timmy Chang and Colt Brennan.

Moniz is tops in the nation in total offense at 361.9 yards per game and he threw three or more touchdown passes in nine of Hawaii’s 13 games.

Moniz won’t be the only top-notch signal-caller in this one as Tulsa quarterback G.J. Kinne runs the Golden Hurricanes’ spread offense deftly.

Kinne, Conference USA’s offensive player of the year, threw for 3,307 yards and 28 touchdowns while also rushing for a team-high 557 yards with seven scores. Kinne is fourth in the FBS in total offense at 322.0 yards per game.

NFL Prospects: Tulsa — FB Charles Clay, WR Trae Johnson. Hawaii — WR Greg Salas.

Bowl History: Hawaii is 4-5 in bowl games and has not won since 2006, when it knocked off Arizona State. The Warriors have been handled pretty easily in their last two bowls — by Georgia in the Sugar Bowl after the 2007 season and by Notre Dame in the Hawaii Bowl the following year.

Etc: Tulsa has four players with at least 333 rushing yards. ... Hawaii safety Mana Silva had eight interceptions this season and is the school’s all-time leader with 14.

Line Movement: Oddsmakers opened with Hawaii installed as 12.5-point favorite but the line is now down to 10 at just about all shops. There's also been some movement on the total. The over/under number opened as low as 70 but is now sitting between 73.5 and 74.

Betting Trends: Tulsa is 4-0 against the spread (ATS) in its last four road games and 8-1 ATS in its last nine games overall. Meanwhile, Hawaii is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite and 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games.

The over is 8-2 in Hawaii's last 10 non-conference games but the under is 10-3-1 in Hawaii's last 14 games as a home fave.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Write-Up


Friday, December 24

Hawai'i Bowl, Honolulu

Average total in last seven Hawai'i Bowls is 81.1, as offenses dominated; WAC teams lost here last three years, twice losing to C-USA teams as double digit favorites. Neither Hawai'i/Tulsa played in a bowl last year, so both should be very excited to be playing on national TV in a bowl.

Hawai'i lost its last two bowl games by combined score of 91-30; they've won three of four in this bowl on their home field. Hawai'i is 7-0 against spread at home this year, winning by 20-6-35-34-38 points- they lost 49-36 to USC on this field in season opener. Warriors are 7-0 as favorite this season. They scored 53 ppg in winning their last three games, but all three came against terrible teams.

Tulsa won its last two bowls by combined score of 108-20, both in the GMAC Bowl in Mobile, beating Bowling Green 63-7, Ball State 45-13. Golden Hurricane has its top eight rushers back fromLY; they're really well-balanced on offense, and their special teams ranked #11 in country. Tulsa lost three games this year; 51-49 at East Carolina in opener, 65-28 at Oklahoma State and 21-18 at SMU October 9, which was last loss for Hurricane, who averaged 43.2 ppg in winning their last six games.

[Udog]

NCAAF


Friday, December 24

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Tips and Trends
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Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. Hawaii Rainbows [Game Channel | 00:00 PM ET]

GOLDEN HURRICANE: Tulsa really finished the regular season strong, winning their final 6 games SU. The Golden Hurricane went 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS overall this season. Tulsa was 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS on the road this year. Tulsa was 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS as the listed underdog this season, with tonight marking the first time this season they were a double digit underdog. The Golden Hurricane are ranked in the top 16 in nearly every offensive category. Tulsa averages nearly 285 YPG through the air and 220 YPG via the ground, ranking them 16th and 15th respectively. QB G.J. Kinne combined for more than 3,850 total YDS this season, including 35 TD's. The Golden Hurricane average 39.7 PPG this year, 10th best in the country. The biggest weakness for Tulsa is their defense, as they surrendered 29.9 PPG, ranking them in the bottom 3rd in the nation. The Golden Hurricane are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Tulsa is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Golden Hurricane are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win. Tulsa is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as the listed underdog. The Golden Hurricane are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.

Golden Hurricane are 8-1 ATS last 9 games overall.
Under is 7-1 last 8 non-conference games.

Key Injuries - None Reported.

Projected Score: 38

RAINBOWS: (-10, O/U 73) Hawaii had an outstanding regular season this year, as they finished with a 10-3 SU record. The Rainbows were one of the very best teams from an ATS standpoint this year, going 11-2 ATS. Hawaii was 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS at home this year, where they will be again tonight. The Rainbows were a perfect 5-0 ATS as a double digit favorite this year. Hawaii threw the ball twice as much as they ran it, with QB Bryant Moniz leading the way. Moniz threw for more than 4,600 YDS and 36 TD's this season. Senior WRs Greg Salas and Kealoha Pilares each went over 1,300 receiving YDS and combined for 27 TD's this year. This trio combined for more than 387 passing YPG, the most in the nation. Hawaii finished the regular season averaging 39.9 PPG, 9th best in the country. Defensively, the Warriors allowed 22.7 PPG this season. The Warriors are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games. Hawaii is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. The Warriors are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games played on fieldturf. Hawaii is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win. The Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win. Hawaii is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. The Warriors are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall.

Rainbows are 8-0 ATS last 8 games as a favorite.
Over is 8-2 last 10 non-conference games.

Key Injuries - RB Hogan Rosehill (knee) is questionable.

Projected Score: 49 (OVER-Total of the Day)


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Sunday, December 26

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Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: Florida International Golden Panthers vs Toledo Rockets (-1.5, 56)

The Skinny: Florida International (6-6, 6-6 ATS) can run up the points in the passing game and on the ground but have had some trouble stopping teams from time to time. After dropping the first four games of the season to BCS-caliber competition, the Panthers fought back to finish tied for first in the Sun Belt - a position that landed them in the first bowl game in school history.

After a few lean years Toledo (8-4, 7-5 ATS) went out and brought in long-time college assistant Tim Beckham to be the head coach. So far, so good, as Beckham installed a high-powered offense that averaged 360 yards a game and got the Rockets to eight wins in his second season.

Point Spread: Toledo -1.5. Over/Under 56.

Florida International’s Edge: Running back by committee. The Panthers figured to take a hit when starter Jeremiah Harden went down after six games but are now giving carries to Darriet Perry, Darian Malloy and Kedrick Rhodes without missing a beat. The three combined for 1,669 yards this season.

Toledo’s Edge: Wide receiver Eric Page made his way onto the Mid-American all-conference team as both a receiver and a kick returner. The former high school quarterback proved to be a dangerous threat in Beckham’s offense, catching eight touchdown passes, throwing for three more and returning three kicks for scores.

The Quarterbacks: FIU’s Wes Carroll Completed nearly 62 percent of his passes this season and was just dangerous enough to keep defenses from keying on the running game. He finished the season with 2,483 yards and 15 touchdowns against 13 interceptions. T.Y. Hilton was on the receiving end of 56 of Carroll’s passes, coming up with a team-high 816 yards.

Toledo will counter with freshman Terrence Owens, who took over at Eastern Michigan on October 30 and refused to give the job back, throwing for 11 touchdowns and two interceptions over the final four games. Owens passed for 1,112 yards and has the help of Page, who finished fifth in the nation with 94 catches.

NFL Prospects: Florida International - CB Anthony Gaitor, OT Cedric Mack, WR Greg Ellingson. Toledo - OC Kevin Kowalski, LB Archie Donald

Bowl History: Florida International - This will be the first bowl game in school history for the Panthers. Toledo - The Rockets are 7-3 all-time in bowl games, most recently earning a 45-13 win over UTEP in the 2005 GMAC Bowl.

Etc.: Toledo sophomore quarterback Austin Dantin, who was injured against Eastern Michigan, is expected to be available as a reserve in the bowl game.

Carroll needs one touchdown pass to set the single-season record for FIU while his center, senior Brad Serini will become the only player in school history to start every game in his collegiate career.

Trends:

- Golden Panthers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.
- Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-2-1 in Golden Panthers last eight games overall.
- Over is 13-5 in Rockets last 18 games as a favorite.


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Monday, December 27

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What bettors need to know: Independence Bowl
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Georgia Tech vs. Air Force (-2.5, 56)

The Dec. 27 Independence Bowl in Shreveport, La., should be a clinic in the option.

Georgia Tech leads the nation with 327 rushing yards per game. Air Force ranks second with 317.9 yards per game. Both teams employ an option-based attack that chews up clock but also creates explosive plays.

Coaches have quipped this could be an extremely quick game, as neither team passes much.

Air Force (8-4, 5-3 Mountain West) enters off three straight wins, with the team averaging 41.6 points during the streak. Coach Troy Calhoun, who took over the program in 2007, was just rewarded with a contract extension through 2015.

The offense revolves around junior quarterback Tim Jefferson, who has run for 769 yards and 15 touchdowns while throwing for 1,342 yards and 10 more scores. Asher Clark has run for 1,001 yards and five touchdowns. He averages 5.8 yards a carry.

Wideout Kevin Fogler, who’s been hampered by a knee injury, should return for the Dec. 27 game and add a deep threat that’s been missing.

Air Force is 9-10-1 all-time in bowl games.

Tech is 22-16 in bowls and 3-0 all-time against Air Force, but those wins over the Falcons came in the late 1970s. With a win, Tech (6-6, 4-4 ACC) would post its 14th straight winning season and snap a five-game bowl skid.

Senior quarterback Joshua Nesbitt, who broke his forearm in the Nov. 4 loss at Virginia Tech, had hoped to return for the bowl but that appears highly unlikely. Sophomore backup Tevin Washington, who nearly rallied the Jackets to a comeback win in Blacksburg, Va., has run for 383 yards and four touchdowns in less than four full games. He’s also thrown for 376 yards, with two touchdowns and two interceptions.

However, Tech lost four of its last five, including 42-34 in the season finale at archrival Georgia.

The Jackets like to control the ball with powerful B-back Anthony Allen, who’s run for 1,225 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 5.6 yards a carry. A-backs Orwin Smith (9.7 yards a carry) and Roddy Jones (6.7 yards a carry) are big-play threats on the outside.

If Tech has to throw, Washington will need a receiver to step up. Because 6-foot-5 sophomore Stephen Hill, an incredible athlete who averages 19.4 yards per catch, has been ruled ineligible after not meeting Tech's academic requirements. Starting safety Mario Edwards is ineligible for the same reason.

While Tech doesn't expect to have Nesbitt, Air Force is hoping fullback Jared Tew can return from the broken bone in his right leg that kept him out of the last five games. The senior was the backbone of Air Force’s ground game and had rumbled for 540 yards. Calhoun called Tew “a longshot” to play.
Air Force linebacker Brady Amack, who missed the regular-season finale with a hamstring injury, is expected to be available. The Falcons will be without defensive linemen Zach Payne and Bradley Connor. Both suffered knee injuries in the finale, a 35-20 win over UNLV.

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[Udog]

NCAAF


Monday, December 27

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Tips and Trends
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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Air Force Falcons

YELLOW JACKETS: Georgia Tech comes into this bowl contest struggling, having lost 4 of their past 5 games SU. Georgia Tech is 6-6 SU and 5-7 ATS overall this year. The Yellow Jackets are 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS away from home this season. Georgia Tech is 3-2 ATS as the listed underdog this season. The Yellow Jackets are likely to be missing a few key players tonight, noticeably QB Josh Nesbitt. RB Anthony Allen is going to have to be even more lethal today in Nesbitt's absence. Allen led the Yellow Jackets with 1,225 rushing YDS this year, including 6 TD's. Georgia Tech averages 327 YPG rushing, the best mark in the nation. Georgia Tech struggled defensively, as they've allowed at least 27 PTS to 4 of their last 5 opponents. For the season, the Yellow Jackets allow 26.2 PPG, simply middle of the pack in all of FBS this year. The Yellow Jackets are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU loss. Georgia Tech is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. The Yellow Jackets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games. Georgia Tech is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. The Yellow Jackets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played in December.

Yellow Jackets are 5-2 ATS last 7 games as an underdog.
Under is 4-0 last 4 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.

Key Injuries - QB Josh Nesbitt (arm) is doubtful.

Projected Score: 23

FALCONS: (-3, O/U 56) Air Force finished the regular season with a record of 8-4 SU and 4-8 ATS. 3 of the 4 teams Air Force lost to were ranked in the top 8 when they originally played them. Their other was a 2 point road loss at San Diego St, a team that looked dominant in the Poinsettia Bowl. Air Force was 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS away from home this season. The Falcons were 2-1 ATS as a single digit favorite this year. The Falcons will try to beat Georgia Tech at their own game tonight. Air Force averaged 317 YPG rushing this season, 2nd best in the nation. RB Asher Clark led the Falcons in rushing with more than 1,000 YDS. QB Tim Jefferson had more than 2,100 total YDS this season, including 25 TD's. Defensively, the Falcons allowed 22.3 PPG this year, 37th best in the country. The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Air Force is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. The Falcons are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall. The Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. Air Force is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played on grass. The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win.

Falcons are 1-6 ATS last 7 games as a favorite.
Under is 4-0 last 4 games following an ATS loss.

Key Injuries - RB Jared Tew (leg) is probable.

Projected Score: 31 (SIDE of the Day)


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[Spark]

*** INDEPENDENCE BOWL ***

GEORGIA TECH (6-6) VS. AIR FORCE (8-4)
Independence Stadium - Shreveport, LA
Kickoff: 5:00 p.m. EDT Line: Air Force -2.5 O/U 56.5
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For the 14th straight season, the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets will take part in a bowl game, as they head to Shreveport LA, for a showdown with the Air Force Falcons in the Independence Bowl. Last season saw Paul Johnson's Yellow Jackets win the ACC and earn a BCS bowl bid. However, repeating as champions was not in the cards, as Tech finished at just 6-6 overall and 4-4 in-conference, thanks to a second half of the season that saw the team drop four of its last five encounters. This marks Georgia Tech's first appearance in the Independence Bowl. The Yellow Jackets are 22-16 all-time in postseason play, but the team hasn't won a bowl game since 2004, dropping five straight, including last year's 24-14 setback to Iowa in the Orange Bowl.

Troy Calhoun's Falcons finished the season 8-4 overall and 5-3 in Mountain West Conference action. It marked the fourth straight season that the service academy has posted eight wins or more. Air Force closed the year out strong with three straight victories, but couldn't ascend the MWC Mountain, with losses to both top-10 foes TCU (38-7) and Utah (28-23) to close out play in October. Air Force is making its third appearance in this event, winning the Independence Bowl in 1983 and 1984. The team is 9-10-1 all-time in bowl games and snapped a three-game bowl losing streak last season with a 47-20 win against Houston in the Armed Forces Bowl. This is the fourth time these two teams have met, but first since 1979. Georgia Tech has won all three prior meetings,

There is definitely no secret to how Air Force will attempt to move the chains. A one-dimensional offense is usually a bad thing, but the Falcons' ground attack is so productive, that it doesn't matter that opponents know its coming, they still can't stop it. Air Force finished second in the nation in rushing this year at a hefty 317.9 yards per game. The passing game plays a distant second fiddle at just 119.5 yards per game, but the team does come in averaging over 30 points per game. QB Tim Jefferson fuels the attack. He ranks second on the team in rushing this season with 769 yards, but has scored 15 of the team's 40 rushing TDs. Junior tailback Asher Clark is the top ground-gainer at 1,001 yards this season, with five TDs, with senior fullback Nathan Walker (453 yards, six TDs) adding to a deep backfield.

The top receiver on the team has just 17 catches on the year, but Jefferson hasn't been bad with his arm when the time comes to throw the ball. He has completed 52.2 percent of his throws, for 1,342 yards and 10 TDs. While the ground game has been Air Force's greatest strength, it has been a source of trouble for the defense this year. The Falcons are yielding a generous 195.1 yards per game rushing the football in 2010, on 4.8 yards per carry. That has to be a concern of coach Calhoun's with Georgia Tech's vaunted ground game up next. There haven't been a whole lot of sacks generated by this unit (13), but than again, foes like to run the ball against Air Force.

It is probably a good game-plan considering that Third-Team All-American CB Reggie Rembert (three INTs, 12 PBUs) patrols the secondary. Junior DB Jon Davis (team-high 89 tackles two INTs, two forced fumbles, one fumble recovery) adds to the strong play in the defensive backfield. Junior LB Jordan Waiwaiole (88 tackles, 7.5 TFLs, two sacks, one INT) is joined in the middle by fellow junior Brady Amack (77 tackles) and senior Pat Hennessey (54 tackles, 8.0 TFLs), while senior DE Rick Ricketts (61 tackles, 9.0 TFLs) highlights the play up front.

The Yellow Jackets know a thing or two, or three about running the football. Paul Johnson's crew runs the ball just as much as Air Force does and actually is a tad more productive, ranking first in the country this season at 327.0 yards per game. It all revolves around talented QB Joshua Nesbitt, although the senior missed the last three and a half games of the regular season after breaking his right forearm against Virginia Tech. The most prolific rushing QB in ACC history, Nesbitt has yet to be cleared to play in this game. With 2,806 career rushing yards, Nesbitt's potential absence could be a huge factor. For the season, Nesbitt has amassed 737 yards and 10 TDs in nine games. Coach Johnson is still unclear on Nesbitt's status.

"I don't know if Joshua will be returning for the bowl, that is all in the doctor's hands. We will play him when they say that he is good to go. I think that he has had a great career and you always want to see guys finishing it on the field playing. Certainly he is a tough competitor and has made a lot of plays in the last three years for Georgia Tech. If he could get out there that would be an added bonus, but we are not going to put him at risk to see if we could get him out there for one more game or series. He is going to have to be cleared by the doctors. They have to say that he has no issues and is good to go."

The good news is that First-Team All-ACC tailback Anthony Allen is at full strength. Allen averaged 5.6 yards per carry in 2010, racking up 1,225 yards and six TDs. In all, Tech scored 30 TDs on the ground and another nine through the air. If Nesbitt is unable to suit up, Tevin Washington will get the nod under center, something coach Johnson feels comfortable with. "I think Tevin has done some positive things. He has played enough now where we expect him to be the starter. He is no longer the back-up. We can't say, 'ok you haven't played much'. His level and standard is getting higher. The more he plays the higher the expectation."

The Tech defense was porous at times this season and the results were less than flattering, with the team yielding 26.2 points per game on an average of 378.7 yards. Brad Jefferson led the way in the middle of the field, as the senior LB paced the team with 78 tackles. He was also responsible for 7.5 TFLs, 4.0 sacks and one fumble recovery. Defensive help comes in the form of sophomore LB Julian Burnett (76 tackles), senior CB Dominique Reese (61 tackles, 8.0 TFLs), junior safety Jerrard Tarrant (55 tackles, three INTs) and junior LB Steven Sylvester (55 tackles, 10.5 TFLs, 3.0 sacks).

• **** NOTES
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The Yellow Jackets arrive with the nation’s top-ranked rushing attack (327 YPG) while the Falcons aren’t far behind (318). Though the styles may be similar, the numbers concerning these two are not. For starters, ACC bowl dogs off a SU loss are an amazing 12-1 ATS while Mountain West bowlers off back-to-back ATS losses are 2-5 SU and ATS. Our database also notes that: sub .700 bowl dogs that won 11 or more games the previous season are 11-2 ATS against sub .800 opposition whereas bowl favorites off back-to-back SU wins but ATS losses are just 5-14 ATS.

While Tech’s current 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS run in bowl games is certainly a cause for concern, HC Paul Johnson’s terrific 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS record versus military opposition takes away some of the sting. Don’t be ashamed to grab this Johnson as a neutral or road dog, either, as he measures up with an admirable 25-10 ATS mark. And while military bowlers are a well prepared 22-9 ATS, we can offset that number with an earlier mentioned 6-6 bowl dog stat (18-9 ATS).

NOTE: Georgia Tech will be without a number of regulars for Monday’s game against Air Force. Last week four players, including leading receiver Stephen Hill and starting safety Mario Edwards, were ruled out for academic issues and then Anthony Egbuniwe and defensive backs Michael Peterson and Louis Young violated curfew and will miss at least the first half of the game.

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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--AIR FORCE is 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992.
The average score was AIR FORCE 26.6, OPPONENT 26.3 - (Rating = 3*)

--GEORGIA TECH is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=230 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was GEORGIA TECH 21.6, OPPONENT 29.9 - (Rating = 2*)

• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--AIR FORCE is 39-23 UNDER (+13.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992.
The average score was AIR FORCE 27.6, OPPONENT 24.7 - (Rating = 3*)

--GEORGIA TECH is 43-24 UNDER (+16.6 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
The average score was GEORGIA TECH 18.6, OPPONENT 26.3 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--AIR FORCE is 24-47 against the 1rst half line (-27.7 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse since 1992.
The average score was AIR FORCE 14.6, OPPONENT 11.6 - (Rating = 4*)

--AIR FORCE is 10-25 against the 1rst half line (-17.5 Units) vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game since 1992.
The average score was AIR FORCE 9.7, OPPONENT 12.5 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--AIR FORCE is 15-2 UNDER (+12.8 Units) the 1rst half total vs. poor passing teams averaging 150 or less passing yards/game. since 1992.
The average score was AIR FORCE 14.9, OPPONENT 8.2 - (Rating = 3*)

--AIR FORCE is 18-6 UNDER (+11.4 Units) the 1rst half total versus good rushing teams - averaging >=200 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was AIR FORCE 12.5, OPPONENT 12.2 - (Rating = 2*)

• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY OVER - All teams where the first half total is 28.5 to 31.5 (AIR FORCE) - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (>=4.8 YPR), in non-conference games.
(30-4 since 1992.) (88.2%, +25.6 units. Rating = 4*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 29.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 18.2, Opponent 18.2 (Total first half points scored = 36.5)

The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (24-4).

[Udog]

NCAAF


Tuesday, December 28

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What Bettors Need to Know
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Champs Sports Bowl: North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. West Virginia Mountaineers (-25.5, 48.5)

This matchup is fairly straightforward: North Carolina State's explosive offense against one of the best defenses in the nation.

N.C. State (8-4, 9-3 ATS) finished second in the ACC Atlantic Division after losing to Maryland in its regular-season finale. The Wolfpack got the ACC's No. 3 bowl slot.

West Virginia (9-3, 7-4-1 ATS) was in the Big East title hunt until the last weekend of the season and settled for a share of the championship with Pitt and Connecticut. Making their ninth straight bowl appearance, the Mountaineers are ranked 21st in the USA Today Coaches' poll.

Odds

This line has remained fairly steady, moving up to -3 before sharps bought back North Carolina State at a field-goal underdog. The total has also stayed put at 48.5 points.

Neer and far

The Mountaineers rank second nationally in scoring defense, allowing 12.8 points a game and have yielded just three rushing touchdowns. The defense ranks third overall (251 yards per game), second against the rush (85) and 11th against the pass (166). The Mountaineers have not allowed more than 21 points in a game all season.

Defense kept West Virginia in every game, and it was turnovers that doomed the Mountaineers in their three close defeats. They've lost the ball 23 times, including three turnovers in the red zone against Rutgers.

Cornerback Brandon Hogan injured a knee against Rutgers and is out for the bowl game. Nose tackle Chris Neild, who missed the Rutgers game because of a hamstring injury, is expected back. The Mountaineers will need them both to keep N.C. State in check.

Hungry like the wolf

The Wolfpack bring the strongest offense that the Mountaineers have seen all year, averaging 406 yards and 32.6 points a game. Quarterback Russell Wilson has accounted for 35 touchdowns, 3,288 yards passing, 394 rushing and thrown 14 interceptions. In N.C. State's last game, he threw 60 times in a 38-31 loss at Maryland.

N.C. State's passing attack ranks 19th nationally, averaging 281 yards a game. Owen Spencer has 57 catches for 868 yards and four touchdowns, Jarvis Williams has 636 yards and four touchdowns, and tight end George Bryan (32 catches, 344 yards) adds another dimension. The Wolfpack have rushed for 125 yards a game, 93rd in the nation.

N.C. State's rushing defense is sound, ranking 12th in the nation with a yield of 113 yards a game. Linebacker Nate Irving has 16 tackles for loss, five sacks and two forced fumbles.

Moving mountains

West Virginia's offense came to life during a four-game winning streak to end the regular season, averaging 31 points in that span. Quarterback Geno Smith had a career-high 352 yards in a season-ending victory over Rutgers. Overall, he has thrown for 2,567 yards and 28 touchdowns with just six interceptions in 333 attempts.

Running back Noel Devine has been slowed by injuries to his toe and ankle, but gained 886 yards on 201 carries, caught 30 passes for 237 yards and scored seven touchdowns. He is expected to be full speed for the bowl game.

Tavon Austin has caught 53 passes for 757 yards and scored nine touchdowns.

Weather

The sun will be shinning in Orlando Tuesday with game-time temperatures in the high 50s. There will be a light wind blowing northwest at 7 mph across the field.

Trends

The teams have met only nine times and not at all since 1979, when N.C. State won 38-14. West Virginia leads the series 5-4.

- Wolfpack are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four bowl games.
- Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last four bowl games as favorites.
- Under is 5-1 in Wolfpack last six non-conference games.
- Over is 5-1 in Mountaineers last six bowl games.



Insight Bowl: Missouri Tigers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (+3, 46.5)

If things had played out differently, the Missouri Tigers might have been members of the Big Ten Conference next season. Instead, the Big Ten tapped Nebraska to join its ranks and the Tigers stayed put in the watered-down Big 12.

Now Missouri will get a chance to show at least one member of the Big Ten what the conference will be missing when the Tigers take on Iowa in the Insight Bowl on Dec. 28 at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe, Ariz.

The one-time border rivals met 12 times between 1892 and 1910, with Missouri holding a 7-5 advantage, but they have not played in the century since. They had arranged a four-game series beginning in 2005, but the Tigers backed out a year before it was set to begin.

The long-dormant rivalry will be renewed in the desert.

Odds

The Hawkeyes opened as 1-point underdogs but when news of player suspensions hit the public, books bumped the spread to +3. The total opened at 46.5 and, after a brief move to 47.5, has settled at its original post.

Road to the bowl

Ironically, the Tigers (10-2, 7-5 ATS) got the nod from the Insight Bowl over Big 12 North Division champion Nebraska, reversing a trend of three consecutive years in which Missouri felt it was snubbed by various bowls. In 2007, the Tigers missed out on a BCS bid when the Orange Bowl instead took rival Kansas, whom Missouri had beaten to reach the Big 12 title game. In 2008, the Tigers again won the Big 12 North but slipped to the Alamo Bowl, and they fell to the Texas Bowl last year, losing 35-13 to Navy.

While Missouri will look for a bowl victory to cap its third 10-win season in four years, the Hawkeyes will use the opportunity to earn a bit of redemption.

Iowa (7-5, 5-6-1 ATS) began the season with great promise, but a 34-27 loss at Arizona on Sept. 18 foreshadowed the disappointment to come. The Hawkeyes lost four times in Big Ten play. Their hopes of reaching the Rose Bowl slipped away with three consecutive losses to end the regular season, culminating with a 27-24 loss at Minnesota.

The Eyes don't have it

Hawkeyes quarterback Ricky Stanzi completed 64.8 percent of his passes for 2,804 yards with 25 touchdowns and four interceptions, but he struggled down the stretch. Stanzi was 10-for-22 for 127 yards in the season-ending loss to Minnesota and he failed to top 200 yards passing in three of Iowa's last five games after doing so in each of the first seven.

It won't be easy for Stanzi to get back on track against a Missouri defense that ranks sixth in the nation in scoring defense (15.2 points allowed per game) and sacks (3.1 per game).

And it won't help that Stanzi likely will be without receiver Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, who was suspended from all team activities after his arrest on drug charges earlier this month, and his top two running backs in Adam Robinson and Jewel Hampton. Johnson-Koulianos caught 46 passes for 745 yards and a team-high 10 touchdowns this season. Robinson, who led the team in rushing with 941 yards, was suspended for failing to meet team expectations, coach Kirk Ferentz announced Dec. 13. Hampton, the second-leading rusher, intends to transfer.

In his absence, the Hawkeyes will depend heavily on receiver Marvin McNutt, who led the team with 51 catches for 798 yards and added eight touchdowns.

Catch a Tiger

Despite allowing 20-plus points in each of the three losses to end the season, Iowa ranks seventh in the nation in scoring defense, allowing 16.4 points per game. The Hawkeyes are especially tough against the run — sixth best in the nation, allowing 103.5 yards per game — but their focus against Missouri will be stopping quarterback Blaine Gabbert and the Tigers' passing attack.

Gabbert completed 62.2 percent of his passes for 2,752 yards with 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions, and he had four receivers catch 32 passes or more. Converted quarterback T.J. Moe (77 catches, 893 yards, 6 TDs) and tight end Michael Egnew (83 catches, 698 yards, 4 TDs) led the way.

Like Stanzi, Gabbert had his share of struggles down the stretch. Over his last five games, he completed just 53 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and four interceptions.

The Tigers were off to a 7-0 start after beating Oklahoma — then the No. 1 team in the BCS standings — 36-27 on Oct. 23 in Columbia, Mo., but they stumbled to consecutive road losses at Nebraska and Texas Tech to squander their Big 12 title hopes.

Nonetheless, they rebounded with three consecutive victories to finish the season ranked 12th in the final BCS standings, making the Tigers the highest-ranked team to appear in the Insight Bowl in its 22-year history. It will mark Missouri's second appearance in the game — the Tigers beat West Virginia 34-31 in 1998.

Weather

The forecast in Arizona is calling for partially cloudy skies, a light wind blowing north-northeast downfield at 4 mph and game-time temperatures in the high 60s.

Trends

- Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games vs. Big Ten.
- Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven neutral site games as a favorite.
- Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games.
- Hawkeyes are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games as underdogs.
- Under is 8-1 in Tigers last nine non-conference games.
- Under is 7-0 in Hawkeyes last seven games vs. Big 12.


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Tuesday, December 28

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Tips and Trends
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North Carolina St. Wolfpack vs. West Virginia Mountaineers [ESPN | 6:30 PM ET]

WOLFPACK: North Carolina St. had a very productive season, going 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS. 9-3 ATS was one of the most profitable numbers of any team in the nation. The Wolfpack were 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS away from home this year. North Carolina St. was 5-1 ATS as the listed underdog this season. QB Russell Wilson is one of the most dynamic players in the country, as he leads an offense that averaged 32.6 PPG this year. Wilson had nearly 3,700 total YDS this year, with 35 TD's. Wilson threw TD passes to 12 different receivers this season. Defensively, the Wolfpack allowed 22.5 PPG during the regular season, 40th in the country. The Wolfpack are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 bowl games. North Carolina St. is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. The Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. North Carolina St. is 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games as the listed underdog. The Wolfpack are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games played on grass. North Carolina St. is 5-2 ATS against a team with a winning record.

Wolfpack are 4-0 ATS last 4 games following a SU loss.
Under is 5-1 last 6 non-conference games.

Key Injuries - PK Josh Czajkowski (hamstring) is out.

Projected Score: 27 (SIDE of the Day)

MOUNTAINEERS: (-2.5, O/U 48.5) West Virginia comes into tonight winners of their past 4 games. The Mountaineers have won all season long with their defense, as only 1 opponent scored more than 20 PTS against them all season long. West Virginia allows just 12.8 PPG this year, 2nd best in the nation. The Mountaineers are 9-3 SU and 7-4-1 ATS overall this year. West Virginia is 3-2 both SU and ATS away from home this season. The Mountaineers are 2-1 ATS as a single digit favorite this year. QB Geno Smith has thrown for more than 2,550 YDS this season, including 23 TD's. RB Noel Devine hasn't had a dynamic season this year, but he does have nearly 900 rushing YDS and 6 TD's. The Mountaineers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall. West Virginia is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The Mountaineers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 bowl games. The Mountaineers are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games against the ACC. West Virginia is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in December.

Mountaineers are 7-1 ATS a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-1 last 6 games as a favorite.

Key Injuries - LB Donovan Miles (head) is out.

Projected Score: 20



Missouri Tigers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes [ESPN | 10:00 PM ET]

TIGERS: (-2.5, O/U 47) Missouri had an outstanding regular season, finishing the year ranked #12 in the nation. The Tigers are 10-2 SU and 7-5 ATS overall this year. The Tigers lone losses SU were to Nebraska and Texas Tech on consecutive weeks, both on the road. Missouri was 2-2 both SU and ATS on the road this season. Missouri will be playing just their 2nd game of the year as a single digit favorite. QB Blaine Gabbert leads this Missouri offense, as he's thrown for more than 2,750 YDS and 15 TD's this season. WR T.J. Moe leads the team with 77 catches for nearly 900 YDS this year. The Tigers defensive unit was one of the biggest surprises in the nation, as they were simply relentless in the red zone. Missouri only allowed opponents to average 15.2 PPG this season, 6th best in the nation. The Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win. Missouri is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. The Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against the Big Ten. Missouri is 5-12 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as the listed favorite. The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games played in December.

Tigers are 4-0 ATS last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Under is 8-1 last 9 non-conference games.

Key Injuries - DL Brad Madison (finger) is probable.

Projected Score: 21 (UNDER-Total of the Day)

HAWKEYES: Iowa threw in the towel to end the regular season, a tough thing to watch considering how well coached this team is. Iowa lost their final 3 games SU, ending the year at 7-5 SU and 5-6-1 ATS. The Hawkeyes were 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS away from home this year. Iowa was 0-2 SU and 0-1-1 ATS as the listed underdog this season. QB Ricky Stanzi threw for more than 2,800 YDS this season, while completing nearly 65% of his passes. Stanzi threw 25 TD's against only 4 INT's this year. Star RB Adam Robinson rushed for 940 YDS and 10 TD's this year. Considering the skill players the Hawkeys had on offense this year, they underachieved as a unit. Defensively, Iowa remained one of the best teams in the nation. The Hawkeyes allowed just 16.4 PPG this year, 7th fewest in the country. The Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. Iowa is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games as the listed underdog. The Hawkeyes are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss. Iowa is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played in December. The Hawkeyes are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games. Iowa is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on grass.

Hawkeyes are 5-1 ATS last 6 bowl games.
Under is 7-0 last 7 games against the Big 12.

Key Injuries - OL Adam Gettis (undisclosed) is questionable.

Projected Score: 20


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Write-Up


Tuesday, December 28

Champs Sports Bowl
Orlando
This is only second bowl game since 2005 for Wolfpack; they lost 29-23 to Rutgers in '08 (+6.5)- they've covered last four bowls. O'Brien is 7-1 in bowl games, covering all but one; Wolfpack has better QB in the game, but their freshman RBs will struggle vs WVa rush defense that is one of best in country. Dogs covered five of their last six games. Wolfpack lost last game to Maryland, which cost them a shot at playing in ACC title game. Underdogs covered this bowl four of last five years.

West Virginia hired a new OC for next year who will become head coach in 2012, so they're basically phasing Stewart out despite a 28-11 record at WVa. Mountaineers play high scoring bowls, winning four of its last five bowls, with only one of the wins by more than 3 points. They'll be well-supported in this bowl, since their fans travel well. WVU has big edge on defense in this game- they were playing well at end of regular season, allowing average of 11.9 ppg in last eight games. Average total in WVU's last five bowls is 67.4.

Insight Bowl
Tempe
Iowa lost its last three games, all by 4 or less points, then after season, star WR Koulinaos was suspended for drug-related offenses. Hawkeyes lost 34-27 at Arizona back in September; they're 3-2 in last five bowls, allowing 10-14 points in last two bowl games. DC Parker missed lot of this year with diabetes-related problems. Iowa was leading/tied in 4th quarter in all five of its losses. Hawkeyes crushed rival Iowa State of Big 12 back in September.

Missouri is 10-2, scoring 17 points each in back/back losses at Nebraska, Texas Tech; Tigers beat Big 11's Illinois 23-13 in season opener. Mizzou is 3-2 in last five bowls, getting crushed 35-13 by Navy LY, first time in last five bowls they scored less than 30 points. Missouri has better OL and better kicker; QB is pretty much a push. Underdogs are 4-3 against spread in this bowl last seven years; until LY, this had been high scoring bowl, averaging 79.2 ppg over 6-year stretch before LY's 14-13 Iowa St win over Minnesota.

[Spark]

*** CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL ***

NC STATE (8-4) VS. W VIRGINIA (9-3)
Citrus Bowl Stadium - Orlando, FL
Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. EDT Line: W Virginia -2.5 O/U 48.5
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The 2010 Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando will feature the West Virginia Mountaineers of the Big East facing off against the NC State Wolfpack out of the ACC. The Mountaineers earned a share of the Big East title this season, but lost out on the tie breaker with UConn. Instead of representing the league in a BCS Bowl game, WVU finds itself in the Champs Sports Bowl for the first time. "We are thrilled and excited to be a participant and we are very much looking forward to this opportunity," said West Virginia coach Bill Stewart.

WVU, which won its last four games of the regular season, is making its school-record ninth straight bowl appearance. The Mountaineers own a 13-16 all-time mark in bowl games and had won four consecutive before losing to Florida State in the Gator Bowl last season. As for NC State, it suffered a 38-31 loss to Maryland in its regular-season finale that cost the team the Atlantic Division title and a spot in the ACC Championship game. It was certainly a disappointing and costly defeat, but the Wolfpack are still headed to a bowl game for the second time in four years under head coach Tom O'Brien.

"Our team could not be more excited about the opportunity to play in the Champs Sports Bowl," O'Brien said. "A trip to Orlando is a great reward for their hard work this season and we are happy to have a quality opponent like West Virginia. We hope that our fans will paint the town red." This is the 25th bowl appearance for NC State, which owns a 12-11-1 mark in such games. The program's last postseason appearance came in 2008, a 29-23 loss to Rutgers.

The Mountaineers and Wolfpack have met nine times previously on the gridiron, including twice in the postseason, and WVU holds a 5-4 edge in the series. The programs met twice in the Peach Bowl in Atlanta, with NC State posting a 49-13 win in 1972 and WVU capturing a 13-10 decision in 1975. WVU's offense came alive down the stretch, scoring 35 or more points in three of its final four games and cracking 500 total yards for the first time in a finale win over Rutgers. Turnovers however, have been an issue for the Mountaineers, as they have committed 23, including 16 lost fumbles.

Running the offense for WVU is sophomore Geno Smith, who really grew as the season wore on. Smith, in his first season as a starter, completed 65.8 percent of his pass attempts with 23 TDs against just six INTs. Jock Sanders served as Smith's safety outlet with a team-high 64 catches, while Tavon Austin provided a deep threat with 757 receiving yards and eight TDs. The Mountaineers also have a threat in the backfield with Noel Devine, though his season was slowed by ankle and foot issues. The speedy back totaled just 884 yards after entering the season as a possible Heisman Trophy candidate. With plenty of time to rest for this game, expect Devine to be ready to make an impact.

Defensively, the Mountaineers have been outstanding for the most part this season and they rank second in both run (85.1 ypg) and scoring (12.8 ppg) defense. The pass defense has also been strong for WVU, allowing just 166.2 ypg to rank 11th in the country. WVU never gave up over 21 points and the 15 TDs it surrendered were the fewest in the entire nation. The unit even had success creating big plays, recording 22 takeaways and 40 sacks. Bruce Irvin leads the team in sacks with 12, while Julian Miller adds eight to go with a team-high 13 TFLs. Keith Tandy is another player to keep a look out for, as the ball-hawk leads the team with six INTs.

The Wolfpack's offense revolves around Russell Wilson, who is one of the most talented QBs around with a strong arm and mobility. Wilson has thrown for 3,288 yards and 26 TDs, while adding 394 more yards and nine scores on the ground. He, however, does lack some accuracy, completing 58.1 percent of his pass attempts with 14 INTs along the way. Owen Spencer is Wilson's favorite target in the passing game, as he leads the roster with 57 catches and 868 receiving yards. Jarvin Williams is another option and he ranks second behind 46 receptions for 636 yards. The ground game is churning out a modest 125.0 ypg even with the help of Wilson. Mustafa Greene is the team's leading rusher, but he has amassed only 584 yards on the season. So expect the passing game to take center stage as always for this unit.

NC State has been strong against the run this season, as the unit is permitting just 113.0 ypg on the ground. The unit has done a terrific job stopping plays in the backfield, averaging nearly eight TFLs per game. The strong play up front has also helped NC State record 40 sacks, though the pass defense has still struggled some despite the heavy pressure. The Wolfpack are giving up 227.5 ypg through the air with 20 TDs against only eight INTs. Nate Irving, who missed all of 2009 after sustaining injuries in a car accident, has been outstanding for NC State this season and ranks in the top five nationally with 20.5 TFLs. He also leads the team with six sacks, while ranking second with 88 tackles.

"One of the most rewarding things I've experienced as a coach has been seeing Nate Irving come back so strong and enjoy so much success," said O'Brien. "He has been a tremendous leader for our team this year with his play on the field and his attitude off the field and is one of the reasons the 2010 team will always be a special one for me."

• PREGAME NOTES
-------------------------
The Mountaineers and their 9-3 SU and 7-3-1 ATS record may warrant favorite status tonight in Orlando but the way we see it, the linesmakers are playing with fire. Not only is HC Bill Stewart an unreliable 11-17-1 ATS when laying points but the West Virginians are a money-burning 0-6 ATS as bowl favorites since 1980. To make matters worse, they’re now laying points to a Wolf Pack squad that came within a 4th-quarter collapse (Virginia Tech) of posting a perfect 6-0 ATS mark this season when taking points.

The ‘conference’ matchup also favors the Pack as ACC bowlers are 14-4 ATS versus Big East opposition while the Mountaineers are just 12-30 ATS versus ACC foes. And when we bring the coaches into play, this one gets completely out of hand. NC State’s Tom O’Brien has excelled in bowl games, posting a 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS record. The veteran head coach is also a determined 15-5 ATS off a SU loss when taking on an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. Certainly, the same could not be said for Coach Stewart, who is being forced out of Morgantown after the 2011 season.

• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--W VIRGINIA is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival since 1992.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 31.4, OPPONENT 17.0 - (Rating = 2*)

--NC STATE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NC STATE 27.7, OPPONENT 26.0 - (Rating = 2*)

• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--W VIRGINIA is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) after playing a game at home this season.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 17.0, OPPONENT 15.3 - (Rating = 2*)

--NC STATE is 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=310 yards/game since 1992.
The average score was NC STATE 20.9, OPPONENT 29.8 - (Rating = 2*)

• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--NC STATE is 19-34 against the 1rst half line (-18.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
The average score was NC STATE 11.5, OPPONENT 12.2 - (Rating = 3*)

--NC STATE is 16-31 against the 1rst half line (-18.1 Units) when the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 since 1992.
The average score was NC STATE 12.4, OPPONENT 14.3 - (Rating = 3*)

--NC STATE is 11-25 against the 1rst half line (-16.5 Units) vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better since 1992.
The average score was NC STATE 12.5, OPPONENT 17.4 - (Rating = 3*)

--NC STATE is 1-9 against the 1rst half line (-8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NC STATE 12.3, OPPONENT 19.5 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--W VIRGINIA is 16-6 UNDER (+9.4 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after a win by 21 or more points since 1992.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 14.3, OPPONENT 11.1 - (Rating = 2*)

--W VIRGINIA is 16-6 UNDER (+9.4 Units) the 1rst half total after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 13.4, OPPONENT 9.0 - (Rating = 2*)

--W VIRGINIA is 13-4 UNDER (+8.6 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 12.2, OPPONENT 9.4 - (Rating = 2*)

• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is 21.5 to 24.5 (NC STATE) - off an upset loss as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%).
(43-11 over the last 10 seasons.) (79.6%, +30.9 units. Rating = 4*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 23.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 9.3, Opponent 10 (Total first half points scored = 19.4)

The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (24-5).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (53-19).

--PLAY UNDER - Neutral field teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (W VIRGINIA) - average rushing team (140-190 RY/G) against a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/G) after 7+ games.
(26-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.8%, +18.3 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 46.1
The average score in these games was: Team 19.1, Opponent 21.8 (Total points scored = 40.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 17 (51.5% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-4).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (41-21).

--PLAY AGAINST - Any team where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (NC STATE) - in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences, after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more.
(47-14 since 1992.) (77.0%, +31.6 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 16, Opponent 11.1 (Average first half point differential = +4.9)

The situation's record this season is: (5-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (22-6).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (28-9).

--PLAY AGAINST - Any team (NC STATE) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against an excellent defense (<=280 YPG) after 7+ games.
(49-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.1%, +29.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (53-18 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.5
The average score in these games was: Team 29.5, Opponent 20.1 (Average point differential = +9.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 24 (34.8% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (6-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (29-10).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (77-46).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (127-107).
____________________________________

[Spark]

*** INSIGHT BOWL ***

MISSOURI (10-2) VS. IOWA (7-5)
Sun Devil Stadium - Tempe, AZ
Kickoff: 10:00 p.m. EDT Line: Missouri -3 O/U 46.5
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The Missouri Tigers and Iowa Hawkeyes got toe-to-toe in the 2010 Insight Bowl at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe. Aside from back-to-back losses, the Tigers have been perfect, winning 10 games and earning a share of the Big 12 North Division title for the third time in the last four seasons. With the successful run during the regular-season, Missouri earned itself a school-record sixth straight bowl game. "We're very pleased to accept the invitation to play in the 2010 Insight Bowl," said MU Head Coach Gary Pinkel. "This is going to be a great reward for our team, and for our fans."

Overall this is the Tigers' 28th all-time bowl appearance and the program is 12-15 in such games, including three straight wins. Missouri has made one other appearance in the Insight Bowl, defeating West Virginia 34-31 in 1998. Iowa meanwhile, was ranked in the Top 10 this year, but now finds itself unranked heading into the bowl season. The Hawkeyes ended the regular season with three consecutive losses, all by four points or less, costing the program a chance at the Big Ten title. Still, Iowa did enough to earn a place in a bowl game for a third straight season and 25th time overall. The Hawkeyes own a 13-10-1 all-time record in the postseason, including a 24-14 win over Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl last season.

Missouri possesses a solid offense that is averaging 30.3 ppg and 401.1 total ypg. The Tigers are balanced as well, rushing for 162.9 ypg and throwing for 238.2 ypg more, with 26 scores coming on the ground and 16 through the air. QB Blaine Gabbert makes this offense go and he has completed 62.2 percent of his pass attempts for 2,752 yards, with 15 TDs against seven INTs. He can also get the job done with his legs, rushing for 239 yards and four scores. At Gabbert's disposal is a pair of talented outlets in TE Michael Egnew and WR T.J. Moe. Egnew leads the team in catches (83) to go with 698 yards and four scores, while Moe has 77 receptions for 893 yard sand six TDs. In the backfield, the Tigers don't have a single rusher that has topped 500 yards yet, though the team is averaging a solid 4.8 yards per carry.

Defensively, the Tigers turned in some dominant performances this season, holding five separate opponents under 10 points, including two shutouts. Overall, Missouri is allowing just 15.2 ppg, so this unit obviously does a terrific job keeping foes out of the end zone. While the Tigers have been tough on defense, they have given up some yards, surrendering 350.7 total ypg. The unit though, has compensated by forcing 27 turnovers, including 16 INTs, and recording 38 sacks. Brad Madison has started just two games for the Tigers, but that hasn't stopped him from leading the team with 11.0 TFLs and 7.5 sacks. Aldon Smith has also been effective despite missing three games, as he posted 44 tackles, nine TFLs and 5.5 sacks.

Iowa's strength on offense comes from its ability to protect the ball, committing a total of just nine turnovers. It all starts with QB Ricky Stanzi, who has thrown a total of just four INTs in 324 attempts. A winner through his career, Stanzi has enjoyed a highly successful campaign, completing 64.8 percent of his tosses for 2,804 yards and 25 TDs. "I think he's had a great year," Kirk Ferentz said. "He's had a great career. Rick is a tremendous individual that works very hard. His statistics are impressive because he's played pretty impressively."

Stanzi however, won't have the services of Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, who has been suspended following a drug-related arrest. Johnson-Koulianos had 745 receiving yards and a team-high 10 TDs during the regular season, so he will obviously be missed. Marvin McNutt though, will be available and he leads the team in catches (51) and receiving yards (798), to go with eight scores. The Hawkeyes issued another suspension to a key player for this game in Adam Robinson, who led the team with 941 yards and 10 TDs on the ground in 10 games. True freshman Marcus Coker made three starts and ran for 403 yards during the regular season and he will get the chance to showcase his talent on a big stage with Robinson out of the way.

"You can expect him to run the ball physically and run it tough, which he likes to do," offensive coordinator Ken O'Keefe said about Coker. "This is an opponent that's going to offer some different challenges to him and one of them is going to be in the blitz pickup game. We really like the progress Marcus has made." On the defensive side of the ball, Iowa has excelled this season, holding opponents to only 164. ppg and 317.1 total ypg. The unit has been stout versus the run, yielding just 103.5 ypg and only 3.3 yards per carry. Iowa has also had success coming up with takeaways, registering 23 on the year. A majority of the turnovers have come via picks, as the Hawkeyes have notched 17 INTs compared to 11 passing TDs allowed. Shaun Prater and Brett Greenwood are tied for the team-lead in INTs with four, while Micah Hyde follows with three picks.

• PREGAME NOTES
-------------------------
QB Ricky Stanzi had been 18-4 SU as a starter with the Hawkeyes entering 2010, only to go 7-5 in his final season at Iowa City. Meanwhile, coming off an 8-5 mark last year, Missouri wasn’t expected to make major noise in the Big 12 but Gary Pinkel’s Tigers opened the season 7-0 before closing out with a 10-2 finish. But here’s where we break with tradition, preferring to think of Iowa’s travails resulting from bad luck instead of bad play. This year’s lined opponents finished with a W-L record of 80-42, the most difficult of all bowlers, and the Hawkeyes’ last 11 losses over the previous three seasons have come by just 39 points combined, with no defeat by more than seven points.

Yes, Mizzou’s senior class may graduate as the winningest in school history but the Tigers still laid a massive egg in last year’s Texas Bowl, losing 35-13 as 6.5-point favorites against Navy. Rival coach Kirk Ferentz owns a 15-7 ATS mark as a dog or favorite of less than 10 points off consecutive losses while Pinkel has gone 0-3 ATS versus .500 or better Big Ten opponents. Even more encouraging for Hawkeye backers, Iowa is 8-1 ATS off three SU losses an own a 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS record as bowl dogs, and Big 10 bowlers are 7-1 ATS taking on Big 12 adversaries off a double-digit win. On the down side, Big 12 bowlers are an abysmal 0-7 ATS as favorites off a win of 8 or more points and 4-12 ATS versus bowlers over the last three years.

• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--IOWA is 30-11 ATS (+17.9 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
The average score was IOWA 29.9, OPPONENT 22.2 - (Rating = 3*)

--IOWA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was IOWA 25.8, OPPONENT 14.9 - (Rating = 3*)

--IOWA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was IOWA 23.3, OPPONENT 17.5 - (Rating = 3*)

--MISSOURI is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MISSOURI 29.3, OPPONENT 33.9 - (Rating = 3*)

--MISSOURI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MISSOURI 25.3, OPPONENT 34.4 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--IOWA is 41-22 UNDER (+16.8 Units) when the total is between 42.5 and 49 since 1992.
The average score was IOWA 21.9, OPPONENT 19.1 - (Rating = 3*)

--IOWA is 31-13 UNDER (+16.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
The average score was IOWA 19.6, OPPONENT 23.3 - (Rating = 3*)

--IOWA is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was IOWA 23.1, OPPONENT 15.0 - (Rating = 3*)

--MISSOURI is 18-3 UNDER (+14.7 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better since 1992.
The average score was MISSOURI 25.2, OPPONENT 24.4 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--IOWA is 8-0 against the 1rst half line (+8.0 Units) vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was IOWA 14.4, OPPONENT 7.1 - (Rating = 3*)

--IOWA is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) as a neutral field underdog of 3.5 points or less since 1992.
The average score was IOWA 15.1, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 3*)

--MISSOURI is 62-39 against the 1rst half line (+19.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
The average score was MISSOURI 13.1, OPPONENT 14.5 - (Rating = 3*)

--MISSOURI is 37-18 against the 1rst half line (+16.9 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=120 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was MISSOURI 11.5, OPPONENT 14.5 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--IOWA is 39-20 UNDER (+17.0 Units) the 1rst half total as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was IOWA 8.3, OPPONENT 14.6 - (Rating = 3*)

--IOWA is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) the 1rst half total in road games off an upset loss as a favorite since 1992.
The average score was IOWA 7.7, OPPONENT 11.2 - (Rating = 4*)

• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
---------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - Neutral field teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (MISSOURI) - average rushing team (140-190 RY/G) against a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/G) after 7+ games.
(26-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.8%, +18.3 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 46.1
The average score in these games was: Team 19.1, Opponent 21.8 (Total points scored = 40.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 17 (51.5% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-4).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (41-21).

[Udog]

NCAAF


Wednesday, December 29

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What Bettors Need to Know
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Military Bowl: East Carolina Pirates vs. Maryland Terrapins (-7, 68)

Most signs point to a pretty easy time for Maryland. The Terrapins (8-4, 8-4 ATS) are in an upbeat mood after bouncing back from a 2-10 record in 2009. They're going against an East Carolina (6-6, 6-6 ATS) team that lost its footing late in the season, falling in four of its last five to barely achieve bowl eligibility.

Maryland also should benefit from something of a home-field advantage at RFK Stadium in Washington. And veteran Ralph Friedgen, the ACC coach of the year in his 10th season at Maryland, is going against rookie head coach Ruffin McNeil. Friedgen is 4-2 bowl games at Maryland, whereas East Carolina has lost four of its past five bowls.

Odds

The spread opened at 7.5 at most books and have been bet down to an even touchdown. The total opened at 69 points and has dropped as low as 67.5 before settling at 68 points.

Fear the turtle

A key to the Terrapins' surprising turnaround was the emergence of freshman quarterback Danny O'Brien, who won the job in the fourth week of the season and went 6-3 as a starter. He threw for 2,257 yards, 21 touchdowns and only six interceptions. His passing accuracy helped the Terrapins tie for seventh in the nation in turnover margin with plus-13, and O'Brien was chosen ACC rookie of the year.

Maryland has a couple of big-play threats in wide receiver Torrey Smith and punt returner Tony Logan. In the season-ending win over N.C. State, Smith caught 14 passes for 224 yards and four touchdowns. For the season, he has 1,065 yards and 12 touchdowns. Logan led the ACC with 18.8 yards per punt return and took two back for touchdowns.

Terrapins' running backs Dave Meggett and Da'Rel Scott share the ball-carrying duties, each with more than 100 rushes and 500 yards. Meggett is averaging 5.5 yards a carry. Senior Travis Baltz has made 13 of 16 field goal attempts and averaged 42 yards per punt.

Maryland's offense has been so effective that coordinator James Franklin has been tapped for the Vanderbilt head-coaching job.

Maryland's defense has given up some yardage, but forced numerous key turnovers and held opponents to 22.3 points per game. The leader is Alex Wujciak, a three-time all-ACC linebacker who averaged 9.3 tackles per game in the regular season.

Pirate gold

What the Pirates have going for them is one of the most prolific passing attacks in the nation. They rank seventh in passing offense (319.3 yards per game) and 12th in scoring (38.2 points per game). Junior Dominique Davis has thrown for 3,699 yards, fourth-best in the nation. He has a .649 completion percentage, 36 touchdowns, just 14 interceptions and nine rushing touchdowns. His favorite receivers are Dwayne Harris (1,055 yards, 10 TDs) and Lance Lewis (979 yards, 13 TDs). Also the primary kick returner, Harris is averaging 171.0 all-purpose yards. Jon Williams has rushed for 882 yards, 10 touchdowns and a 5.5-yard average.

The Pirates managed a .500 record despite a porous defense that ranks 118th in the nation, allowing 43.4 points a game, including 76 by Navy. ECU went 1-3 outside Conference USA, knocking off the ACC's N.C. State 33-27 in overtime.

Weather

The forecast in Washington is calling for sunny skies with a slight 8-mph breeze blowing west-northwest from corner to corner. Game-time temperatures will be in the low 40s.

Trends

- This is the fifth consecutive bowl game for East Carolina and its first game against Maryland.
- Pirates are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games as underdogs.
- Terrapins are 4-1 ATS in their last five Bowl games.
- Pirates are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. ACC.
- Over is 5-0 in Pirates' last five games overall.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Terrapins' last six games overall.



Texas Bowl: Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Baylor Bears (-1, 63)

The Skinny: In four previous games, the Texas Bowl has mustered strong support from the football community in Houston, but the games have not exactly been dramatic, with only one game decided by less than 22 points. That may change this year with Illinois and Baylor in the mix. Both certainly have a flair for the dramatic.

Baylor (7-5, 4-4 Big 12, 5-7 ATS) became bowl eligible after beating Kansas State, then followed that with its first road victory over Texas since 1991, but lost its last three games. Illinois (6-6, 4-4 Big Ten, 8-4 ATS) lost a thrilling triple-overtime game against Michigan, but came back to beat Northwestern 48-27 at Wrigley Field, a victory that made the Illini bowl eligible.

Point Spread: Baylor -1 Over/under – 63

The spread opened at -1.5 in favor of the Bears but has since dropped to -1. The total opened at 61.5 points but has been bet up to 63.

Baylor's edge: The Bears can put points on the board, scoring 32.58 points per game — only once did they score fewer than 24 points. Baylor is a balanced team which averages 200.5 yards rushing and 278 yards passing, leaving it ranked No. 12 in the nation. Running back Jay Finley has rushed for 1,155 yards and 11 touchdowns. Baylor may have an edge in special teams with punter Derek Epperson (44.20 yard average) and kicker Aaron Jones, who has made 19 of 26 field goals and 44 of 45 PATs for 101 points.

Illinois' edge: Coach Ron Zook’s team prefers to keep the ball on the ground. Led by Mikel Leshoure (1,513 yards, 14 TDs), the nation’s No. 8 rusher, the Illini average 242.33 yards rushing per game, which ranks 13th in the NCAA. The Illini hope their dependable defense can rise to the occasion again. Illinois permitted opponents to gain 344.17 yards per game (38th in the nation) and its 24.25 points-allowed average was skewed by the 67-65 three OT loss to Michigan State.

The Quarterbacks: Both teams feature two-way threats at quarterback. Baylor's Robert Griffin III prefers to throw the ball. He completed 274 of 413 passes for 3,195 yards and 21 touchdowns, with only eight interceptions. Griffin ran for 591 yards and eight scores. Nathan Scheelhaase of Illinois threw for 1,583 yards and 17 touchdowns and rushed for 815 yards and four touchdowns.

NFL Prospects: Baylor — DT Phil Taylor, OT Danny Watkins, P Derek Epperson. Illinois — DE Clay Nurse, P Anthony Santella, OLB Nate Bussey.

Bowl history: Illinois is returning to bowl action for the first time since it played Southern Cal in the 2008 Rose Bowl, a game it lost 49-17. The Illini are 6-8 in bowl games and have lost five of their last seven bowls. Baylor is 8-8 in bowl games, but will be making its first bowl appearance since 1994, when the Bears played Washington State in the Alamo Bowl and posted a 10-3 victory.

Etc.: Baylor linebacker Chris Francis received the Ok to play Tuesday despite a lacerated liver. ... Illinois dismissed linebacker Evan Frierson from the team after he was arrested for aggravated battery.

Weather: With thunder showers in the forecast for Houston, the roof will likely be close at Reliant Stadium Tuesday.

Trends:

- Fighting Illini are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games.
- Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as favorites.
- Over is 5-1 in Fighting Illini's last six games overall.
- Over is 7-1 in Bears' last eight games overall.



Alamo Bowl: Arizona Wildcats vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (-4.5, 66.5)

The Skinny: Oklahoma State (10-2, 9-3 ATS) has a chance to reach 11 wins for the first time in school history but enters the Alamo Bowl disappointed after squandering an opportunity to play in the Big 12 Championship game by falling to rival Oklahoma in its final regular-season game.

Offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen, who came over from Houston before the season and turned the Cowboys into the No. 1 team in the nation in total offense and the No. 3 team in scoring offense, did so well he got hired away. West Virginia named him offensive coordinator for next season, with a guarantee he'll be head coach in 2012. Holgorsen will coach the Cowboys in the bowl, though.

Arizona (7-5, 6-6 ATS) will have more than a month to think about its last regular season game, a double-overtime loss to rival Arizona State that included two blocked extra point attempts. That was the latest in a series of disappointments for a promising team, which lost three games by a total of six points.

Point Spread: Oklahoma State -4.5. Over/Under 66.5

The spread opened at -6 in favor of the Cowboys but has dropped to -4.5 as of Tuesday. The total has also moved from its opening post of 64.5 points to 66.5.

Oklahoma State’s Edge: Offense, specifically running back Kendall Hunter. Quarterback Brandon Weeden and wide receiver Justin Blackmon are one of the most dangerous combinations in college football but Hunter, who rushed for 1,516 yards and 16 touchdowns this season, will be going up against an Arizona defense that allowed 205 rushing yards to USC and 398 to Oregon.

The Cowboys are averaging nearly 45 points per game and balance it out with equally impressive rushing and passing numbers.

Arizona’s Edge: Defensive end Ricky Elmore led the Wildcats with 11 sacks and 13 tackles for a loss this season and will be one of the keys to stopping Oklahoma State’s attack. His ability to get to Weeden in the passing game and help his fellow linemen bottle up Hunter on the ground could make the difference.

No slouch on offense itself, Arizona led the Pac-10 in passing yardage this season and will be going up against a secondary that most recently yielded 47 points to Oklahoma.

The Quarterbacks: The Cowboys put 27-year-old Weeden, a former minor league baseball player, under center this season and took off. His 4,037 yards and 32 touchdowns this season not only made their way up school record books but ranked third and fifth in the nation, respectively.

Arizona signal-caller Nick Foles completed 67.6 percent of his passes - eighth-best in the country - for 2,911 yards while tossing 19 touchdowns. He had 10 touchdowns against two interceptions in the last four games.

NFL Prospects: Oklahoma State - WR Justin Blackmon, RB Kendall Hunter, PK Dan Bailey. Arizona - DE Brooks Reed, WR Juron Criner.

Bowl history: Oklahoma State is 12-8 all-time in bowls but has lost its last two, including a 21-7 setback against Mississippi in the 2009 Cotton Bowl. The Cowboys last played the Alamo Bowl in 2004, when they were crushed, 33-7, by Ohio State.

Arizona is 6-8-1 all-time and will be playing in a bowl for the third straight season after a 10-year drought. The Wildcats are coming off a 33-0 loss to Nebraska in last year’s Holiday Bowl.

Etc.: Oklahoma State cleaned up in the postseason awards arena, with Blackmon taking the Fred Biletnikoff Award as the nation’s top receiver and Bailey winning the Lou Groza Award for place-kicking.

Arizona will have to rebuild both lines after the season but won’t have to wait long to see the Cowboys again as they are expected to be the Wildcats’ toughest non-conference opponent in the 2011 campaign.

Trends:

- Cowboys are 40-16-2 ATS in their last 58 games as favorites.
- Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss.
- Over is 5-1 in Wildcats' last six games overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Cowboys' last four non-conference games.


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Wednesday, December 29

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Tips and Trends
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Illinois Fighting Illini vs Baylor Bears [ESPN | 6:00 PM ET]

ILLINI: Illinois enters the postseason on a real slide, having lost 3 of their final 4 games SU against teams not even ranked in the top 50. The Illini finished the regular season with a 6-6 SU and 8-4 ATS record. Illinois is 2-4 SU and 4-2 ATS away from home this season. The Illini are 4-1 ATS as the listed underdog this year. Illinois averages 32.1 PPG this year, 33rd best in the nation, thanks mostly to their rushing attack. The Illini have the 13th ranked rushing attack in the nation, averaging 242 YPG this year. RB Mikel Leshoure leads the Illini with more than 1,500 rushing YDS this season, along with 14 TD's. QB Nathan Scheelhaase is a duel threat QB that has accumulated nearly 2,400 total YDS this year with 21 TD's. Defesnively, the Illini have allowed opponents to average 24.3 PPG, just 52nd in the country. The Fighting Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. Illinois is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. The Fighting Illini are 4-1 ATS against a team with a winning record. Illinois is 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games played on grass. The Fighting Illini are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games. Illinois is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games. The Fighting Illini are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against the Big 12.

Illini are 8-1 ATS last 9 games as an underdog.
Over is 7-0 last 7 games following a SU loss.

Key Injuries - LB Ian Thomas (leg) is doubtful.

Projected Score: 27

BEARS: (-1.5, O/U 62.5) Baylor had an outstanding start to the season before losing their final 3 games, each by double digits. The Bears are 7-5 SU and 5-7 ATS overall this season. Baylor is 3-3 both SU and ATS away from home this year. Baylor is 3-1 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. QB Robert Giffin III is one of the most dynamic players in the country, as he's a home run threat both with his arms and legs. Griffin has thrown for nearly 3,200 YDS this year and ran for nearly 600 YDS while accumulating 29 TD's. RB Jay Finley has rushed for a team high 1,155 YDS and 11 TD's this season. Baylor ranks in the top 25 in both passing and rushing offense, and average 32.6 PPG for the year. The Bears weakest link is their defense, where they have allowed each of their psat 3 opponents score at least 42 PTS. The Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite up to a field goal. Baylor is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS loss. The Bears are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss. Baylor is 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Baylor is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Bears are 7-3 ATS last 10 games played on grass.
Under is 4-0 last 4 non-conference games.

Key Injuries - TE Willie Jefferson (personal) is out.

Projected Score: 34 (SIDE of the Day)



Arizona Wildcats vs Oklahoma St. Cowboys [ESPN | 9:15 PM ET]

WILDCATS: 4 consecutive losses to end the regular season have really make Arizona spiral out of control. For a team once ranked in the Top 10 in the nation, finishing 7-5 SU seemed impossible. Besides finishing 7-5 SU, the Wildcats also went 6-6 ATS this year. Arizona is 3-2 both SU and ATS away from home this season. Arizona is 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS as the listed underdog this year. A big reason for the Wildcats slide was due to the health of QB Nick Foles. Matt Scott was brilliant filling in for Foles, but the uncertainty with who was making starts couldn't have helped matters. The Wildcats have an elite passing offense that has averaged 310 YPG, 9th best in the nation. Foles has thrown for more than 2,900 YDS this season, including 19 TD's. WR Juron Criner caught any ball thrown his way, as he had 1,186 receiving YDS and 10 TD's this year. This Wildcats defense is better than they show statistically, considering just how many elite offenses they faced this year. Arizona allows an average of 21.6 PPG this year, 33rd in the country. The Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played on grass.

Wildcats are 1-4 ATS last 5 games following a SU loss.
Over is 5-1 last 6 games overall.

Key Injuries - QB Nick Foles (knee) is probable.

Projected Score: 24

COWBOYS: (-5.5, O/U 65.5) Oklahoma St. is one of the best teams not playing in a BCS game this bowl season. The Cowboys are 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS overall this season. The biggest question for the Cowboys is their motivation, since they were so close to playing in a BCS game. The Cowboys are a perfect 5-0 both SU and ATS away from home this year. Oklahoma St. is also a perfect 5-0 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. QB Brandon Weeden directs the 3rd most prolific scoring offense in the nation, averaging 44.9 PPG this year. Weeden has thrown for more than 4,000 YDS this season, including 32 TD's. WR Justin Blackmon just might be the best receiver in the country, as he caught 102 passes for 1,665 YDS and 18 TD's this year. Even RB Kendall Hunter got into the mix, leading the team with 1,500 rushing YDS and 16 rushing TD's this season. The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Oklahoma St. is 24-6-2 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite between 3.5 and 10 PTS. The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

Cowboys are 8-2 ATS last 10 games overall.
Under is 6-0 last 6 games following a SU loss.

Key Injuries - WR Justin Blackmon (ankle) is probable.

Projected Score: 34 (UNDER-Total of the Day)


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[Spark]

*** TEXAS BOWL ***

ILLINOIS (6-6) VS. BAYLOR (7-5)
Reliant Stadium - Houston, TX
Kickoff: 6:00 p.m. EDT Line: Baylor -1 O/U 62
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The Illinois Fighting Illini and Baylor Bears have made it back to the postseason, as they are set to square off in the fifth annual Texas Bowl at Reliant Stadium. This will be just the second bowl game Illinois has played since 2002, with the most recent being a 49-17 loss to USC in the Rose Bowl following the 2007-08 season. The Fighting Illini had an up-and-down season, winning consecutive games only once and finishing the regular season with a 6-6 record. Illinois is known for having a widespread alumni base, but Baylor is playing within a three-hour drive of its campus.

"Our guys," Illinois head coach Ron Zook said at the Texas Bowl press conference, "they like being the underdog, they like being the opponent, they like to be in the visitors' (locker room). We're going to really find out what that means now because I know that we're kind of in hostile territory. But we are excited." On the other sideline, Baylor is going bowling for the first time since 1994.

"It's been 16 years since we've been in a bowl game and our people are pumped," Baylor head coach Art Briles said, "and rightfully so, because when you've looked on from the outside for a long time and you finally get a chance to step in the door, it's a good feeling." Still, the Bears faded down the stretch, dropping each of their final three games after a 7-2 start. They haven't had much success against Big Ten teams, posting a 2-9-1 mark all-time. Baylor won the only previous meeting between these two schools, a 34-19 decision back in 1976. In last year's Texas Bowl, Navy thumped Missouri 35-13.

Illinois' offense is predicated on the running game, as the team enters this contest ranked 13th nationally in rushing with 242.3 yards per game. Against Northwestern in the Big Ten finale at Wrigley Field last month, Mikel Leshoure ran for a school-record 330 yards and two touchdowns en route to a 48-27 win. His 330 yards were also a single-game high in the nation this season, as the Illini rumbled for 519 rushing yards combined.

On the season, Leshoure has averaged 126.1 rushing yards per game and has scored 17 touchdowns. He is the straw that stirs the drink for the Illinois offense. Quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase is also a threat with his legs, as he ranks second on the team with 815 rushing yards (67.9 ypg) to go along with four TDs. In the passing game, Scheelhaase averages just 131.9 yards per game, though he has thrown 17 touchdowns against only eight interceptions. A.J. Jenkins heads up the receiving corps with 694 yards and seven TDs on 50 catches.

Defensively, Illinois has proven very tough to run against, ranking 29th nationally and fourth in the Big Ten with 131.3 rushing yards per game allowed. Overall, the team ranks 38th in the country in total defense (344.2 ypg) and 53rd in scoring defense (24.2 ppg). The unit started to leak a bit down the stretch, allowing an average of nearly 40 points over its final four games, three of which were losses. Junior linebacker Martez Wilson is a wrecking ball, having notched a team-high 105 tackles, which also ranks third in the conference. Wilson also leads the team with four sacks and three forced fumbles this year. Junior defensive back Trulon Henry has a team-best three interceptions under his belt in his first year at Illinois since transferring from junior college.

Baylor's offense is capable of picking up yardage in huge chunks, as the Bears rank No. 12 in the nation in total offense (478.5 ypg). They have a potent air-ground combo to keep defenses off balance in quarterback Robert Griffin and running back Jay Finley. Griffin is completing 66.3 percent of his passes on the year and has thrown 21 touchdowns and only eight interceptions. He averages 266.2 passing yards per game and has also been an asset on the ground with eight rushing touchdowns and a shade under 50 rushing yards per game.

Finley averages 6.3 yards per carry and 96.2 yards per game on the ground, and he has scored 11 times. Kendall Wright paces the receiving corps with 66 catches for 825 yards and six TDs. Defensive lapses forced the Bears into catchup mode during their final three games, but when they are balanced, their offense has proven hard to stop. Griffin tossed an uncharacteristic two interceptions in the regular-season finale against Oklahoma, which really took the Bears out of their rhythm.

When asked to evaluate Illinois, coach Briles spoke about the importance of slowing the Illini ground game. "They're a dangerous football team, very dangerous," Briles said. "They're third in the nation in time of possession. That tells you something there. It means they're making first downs and running the football. It's a big concern from us on both sides of the ball, actually."

Similar to how Illinois struggled down the stretch, Baylor's defense yielded an average of 50 ppg during that three-game skid to close out the regular season. With plenty of time to prepare for this matchup, coach Briles is hoping his defense can rediscover its early-season swagger. In their first four victories of the season, the Bears had allowed an average of 7.25 ppg. But once they got into their Big 12 schedule, the Bears had trouble stopping opponents. Senior safety Byron Landor ranked fourth in the conference with 115 tackles, while defensive end Tevin Elliott posted a team-high five sacks and nine tackles for loss.

• PREGAME NOTES
-------------------------
Baylor QB Robert Griffin III and company may have had their long-awaited breakout season in 2010 but the Bears have been bad news in games versus fellow bowlers this year, stumbling to a 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS mark. Enter Illinois from the much-maligned Big Ten – a conference that’s more than held its own when facing off with teams from the Big 12. Big Ten bowlers are a respectable 15-8 ATS versus Big 12 foes of late and Big 12 bowlers are just 5-12 ATS as favorites versus Big Ten opponents. The Fighting Illini have not advanced to postseason play since their 49-17 thumping at the hands of USC in the ’07 Rose Bowl and, quite frankly, didn’t expect to make it back this year following the departure of QB Juice Williams. Surprisingly, however, this year’s edition actually improved by 8 PPG since Williams was squeezed out of the picture.

The defense also played better in 2010, allowing 59 YPG less while holding three bowlers to season-low yardage. Both squads arrive off season-ending swoons: Baylor lost its final three games while 6-6 Illinois shows up as losers in three of its last four contests. But even though today’s Houston venue is just a three-hour drive from Waco, bowl virgin favorites that won four or less games the previous year are a money-burning 6-16 ATS. Baylor head coach Art Briles owns a nifty 8-2-2 ATS log as chalk off BB SU and ATS losses but Baylor has had little success against the Big Ten, going 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. Briles’ opponent today, Ron Zook, barely retained his job this season but the addition of six new assistant coaches seems to have paid dividends. Zook boasts a solid 7-3 ATS mark as a dog of 3 points or less and his Illini follow suit with a 4-1 ATS record as bowlers versus less than .666 foes.

• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--BAYLOR is 37-63 ATS (-32.3 Units) in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was BAYLOR 19.0, OPPONENT 36.1 - (Rating = 5*)

--BAYLOR is 35-54 ATS (-24.4 Units) off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival since 1992.
The average score was BAYLOR 17.8, OPPONENT 36.5 - (Rating = 4*)

• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--BAYLOR is 7-1 OVER (+5.9 Units) after the first month of the season this season.
The average score was BAYLOR 35.4, OPPONENT 36.4 - (Rating = 2*)

--ILLINOIS is 30-12 OVER (+16.6 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1992.
The average score was ILLINOIS 25.7, OPPONENT 28.2 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--BAYLOR is 25-42 against the 1rst half line (-21.2 Units) in road games after playing a conference game since 1992.
The average score was BAYLOR 7.5, OPPONENT 19.8 - (Rating = 3*)

--BAYLOR is 15-30 against the 1rst half line (-18.0 Units) off a home loss against a conference rival since 1992.
The average score was BAYLOR 6.5, OPPONENT 22.2 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--BAYLOR is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BAYLOR 15.6, OPPONENT 17.3 - (Rating = 4*)

--BAYLOR is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BAYLOR 14.7, OPPONENT 16.7 - (Rating = 4*)

--ILLINOIS is 30-11 OVER (+17.8 Units) the 1rst half total in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1992.
The average score was ILLINOIS 14.6, OPPONENT 16.9 - (Rating = 3*)

• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY OVER - All teams where the first half total is 28.5 to 31.5 (BAYLOR) - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (>=4.8 YPR), in non-conference games.
(30-4 since 1992.) (88.2%, +25.6 units. Rating = 5*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 29.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 18.2, Opponent 18.2 (Total first half points scored = 36.5)

The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (24-4).

--PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (BAYLOR) - off 1 or more straight overs, in a game involving two good offensive teams (28-34 PPG).
(32-9 since 1992.) (78.0%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 58.8
The average score in these games was: Team 34.3, Opponent 32.9 (Total points scored = 67.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 19 (47.5% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (4-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-4).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (29-8).