Announcement

**Spark** · 12-31-2010, 11:13 AM

***** SATURDAY, JANUARY 1ST CFB INFORMATION *****
_______________________________________________

••• DALLAS FOOTBALL CLASSIC •••

NORTHWESTERN (7-5) VS. TEXAS TECH (7-5)
Cotton Bowl - Dallas, TX
Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. EDT Line: Texas Tech -9.5 O/U 60.5
------------------------------------------------------------------
GAME BREAKDOWN: It is hard to respect Northwestern too much as the Wildcats managed to go just 7-5 after a 5-0 start on the season. Northwestern’s upset over 7-5 Iowa was the only win of the season against a winning team and without starting QB Dan Persa the offense has not had much success. Statistically Northwestern has been out-gained and out-scored and they have a negative turnover margin. This is a team that is always a dangerous underdog however and while Coach Fitzgerald is 0-2 in bowl games, both games went to overtime with Northwestern as heavy underdogs.

Last year in the Outback Bowl Northwestern took Auburn to overtime and the Tigers have turned around to have a pretty strong team this year. Texas Tech was also a lousy team statistically as the defense was terrible, allowing 463 yards per game and while the offense put up big numbers it was a step back for the program. Coach Tuberville has been mentioned as a candidate for a few other positions after just one year in Lubbock so there may be some distractions and the Red Raiders appear overvalued.

• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--TEXAS TECH is 7-0 UNDER vs. teams with comp. pct. of 62% or better over L2 seasons.
--Pat Fitzgerald is 11-2 UNDER after game with a TO margin of -2 or worse as N’WESTERN coach.
--Tommy Tuberville is 43-20 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record.

• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 28.5 to 31.5 (NORTHWESTERN) - an average offensive team (21 to 28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-34 PPG), after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games.
(29-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 4*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 29.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 9.1, Opponent 14.9 (Total first half points scored = 24)

The situation's record this season is: (4-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-6).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (30-7).

• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NORTHWESTERN) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite.
(32-11 over the last 10 seasons.) (74.4%, +19.9 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (19-24 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7
The average score in these games was: Team 24.3, Opponent 24.4 (Average point differential = -0.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 20 (46.5% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (5-5).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-7).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (47-24).
__________________________________

••• OUTBACK BOWL •••

PENN ST (7-5) VS. FLORIDA (7-5)
Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. EDT Line: Florida -7 O/U 48
-------------------------------------------------------
GAME BREAKDOWN: The coaches will dominate the headlines in this match-up as Joe Paterno incredibly coaches bowl game number 37 while Urban Meyer says he will be coaching his last. It was a very disappointing season for Florida at 7-5 including a few uncharacteristic blowout losses. The Gators still had very good defensive numbers but the offense really struggled at times, averaging just 29 points per game. Penn State also finished 7-5 but there were some encouraging performances, albeit through great inconsistency. Penn State looked like a top defensive team early in the year after holding its own against Alabama and Iowa but in eight Big Ten games the Lions allowed at least 21 points each week.

The SEC gets a lot of respect for its record versus the Big Ten but Penn State has won outright as underdogs in its last two bowl games against SEC teams. Value may be on Penn State in this matchup given the surge in interest to back Florida after Coach Meyer’s resignation but in a favorable venue with a big edge on defense the Gators should have several edges in this game. The Gators are still on a great ATS run as favorites over the last few years and while the Penn State bowl numbers must be respected this looks like a mismatch if Florida has full motivation. Expect the Gators to pull away after a close first half.

• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--Joe Paterno is 3-21 ATS away vs. teams allowing <=310 yards/game as PENN ST coach.
--Urban Meyer is 33-7 ATS in non-conference games.
--Urban Meyer is 19-3 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest.

• INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK: Florida head coach Urban Meyer is 19-2 SU and 17-3-1 ATS with rest, 5-1 SU and ATS as a bowler, and an 'Incredible' 27-0 SU and 18-3 ATS versus sub .666 non-conference opponents.

• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - an average offensive team (21-28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) after 7+ games, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game.
(44-13 since 1992.) (77.2%, +29.7 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (32-26)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.6
The average score in these games was: Team 27.1, Opponent 25.9 (Average point differential = +1.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 32 (55.2% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (24-8).

• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Neutral field teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (PENN ST) - average rushing team (140-190 RY/G) against a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/G) after 7+ games.
(26-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (76.5%, +17.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 46.1
The average score in these games was: Team 19.3, Opponent 22 (Total points scored = 41.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 18 (52.9% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-5).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (41-22).
__________________________________

••• CAPITAL ONE BOWL •••

MICHIGAN ST (11-1) VS. ALABAMA (9-3)
Citrus Bowl Stadium - Orlando, FL
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. EDT Line: Alabama -10 O/U 52
----------------------------------------------------------
GAME BREAKDOWN: Michigan State is not getting a great deal of respect despite tying for the Big Ten title and losing just one game all season. The Spartans missed out on a BCS bowl spot but they get the opportunity for a marquee win, facing last year’s national champions. Alabama lost three games this season including the stunning comeback defeat to close the season against Auburn. The Tide has dominant numbers on both sides of the ball but motivating this team for a lesser bowl game may be an issue.

Nick Saban used to coach at Michigan State and Spartans coach Mark Dantonio was an assistant on that staff so there is a history between the coaches. While Michigan State was dealt a favorable conference schedule the Spartans beat six teams that are in bowl games and the numbers across the board are strong with a balanced offense and a very solid defense. Michigan State has lost its bowl game in all three years since Dantonio took over but they have been competitive underdogs in all three games. The last time Alabama was in a letdown bowl situation they were blown out by Utah as heavy favorites and the motivation edge should be with the underdog, out to prove they belonged in the BCS.

• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--Nick Saban is 18-3 UNDER as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points.
--ALABAMA is 13-3 ATS after a game where they forced 1 or 0 turnovers over L3 seasons.
--ALABAMA is 23-11 ATS when playing on a Saturday over the L3 seasons.

• AWESOME ANGLES OF THE WEEK: Alabama rolls into Orlando 8-2 SU and ATS in bowls against foes off a SU and ATS win. In addition, defending national champs off a loss are 7-1 ATS as bowlers versus an opponent off a SU win and SEC bowlers off a SU favorite loss are an 'Awesome' 17-7 ATS (10-1 ATS L11), including 4-0 SU and ATS when they allow 14 or less PPG on the season. The cement comes from our database that tells us to: Play Against - Any New Year’s Day or later underdog who allowed 20+ PPG on the season, versus an opponent that failed to cover its final game of the season. ATS W-L Record 3-18-1 (-14.4 units) since 1980.

• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (ALABAMA) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences.
(23-3 over the last 10 seasons.) (88.5%, +19.7 units. Rating = 4*)

The average total posted in these games was: 53.1
The average score in these games was: Team 20.5, Opponent 20.3 (Total points scored = 40.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 16 (61.5% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-0).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (42-16).

• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (ALABAMA) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences.
(26-6 since 1992.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 4*)

The average total posted in these games was: 52.8
The average score in these games was: Team 23.8, Opponent 23.8 (Total points scored = 47.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 14 (43.8% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
__________________________________________

••• GATOR BOWL •••

MICHIGAN (7-5) VS. MISSISSIPPI ST (8-4)
Municipal Stadium - Jacksonville, FL
Kickoff: 1:30 p.m. EDT Line: Miss St -4.5 O/U 60
----------------------------------------------------------
GAME BREAKDOWN: The Mississippi State program has taken a quick rise under Coach Dan Mullen in two years and as a result he has been mentioned as a possible candidate for several jobs, adding some distraction to the bowl preparation. The Bulldogs have won outright as underdogs in the last three bowl encounters but this will be a different situation as the favorite. Mississippi State went 8-4 and through an SEC schedule that is impressive but the non-conference schedule was very weak and the Bulldogs actually only beat one team that enters the postseason with a winning record, 7-5 Florida. The defense ended the year with good numbers but in the last three games Mississippi State allowed 91 points.

Michigan stumbled after a 5-0 start and blowout losses to Wisconsin and Ohio State to close the season show the ground that the program needs to make up in the Big Ten. Denard Robinson should be fully healthy and Michigan’s offense averaged over 500 yards per game this season but Michigan’s defense really struggled against the pass. Mississippi State was an inconsistent offensive team and they run a spread option attack that Michigan will be used to seeing but the clouds over the Wolverines coaching staff can’t help here. Michigan will be a popular underdog in this game but the results don’t add up to success.

• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--MICHIGAN is 1-15 ATS in the second half of the season over the L3 seasons.
--Rich Rodriguez is 2-18 ATS after playing a conference game as coach of MICHIGAN.
--MICHIGAN is 0-10 ATS off a loss by 10+ points to a conference rival over L3 seasons.

• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Any team against the total (MICHIGAN) - in non-conference games, off 2 straight losses to conference rivals, allowing 31 points or more.
(46-22 over the last 10 seasons.) (67.6%, +21.8 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 55.5
The average score in these games was: Team 23.8, Opponent 28.7 (Total points scored = 52.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 30 (44.8% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-11).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-15).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (30-20).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (52-28).
__________________________________

••• ROSE BOWL •••

TCU (12-0) VS. WISCONSIN (11-1)
Rose Bowl - Pasadena, CA
Kickoff: 5:00 p.m. EDT Line: TCU -3 O/U 58.5
------------------------------------------------------
GAME BREAKDOWN: The Horned Frogs did not get the pieces to fall together for a spot in the national championship game but the Rose Bowl is not a bad consolation. TCU has failed to cover the last two years as bowl favorites and this will be a difficult match-up with Wisconsin. TCU has far better statistics on both sides of the ball including the best defensive numbers in the nation. The schedule has not been difficult but Wisconsin’s schedule has not been that much more difficult. The Badgers did not have to play Illinois or Penn State in the conference season and the non-conference schedule featured a FCS team and a three losing FBS teams.

Wisconsin’s one loss came to 11-1 Michigan State on the road and the Badgers closed the season on a roll with seven straight wins, many by impressive blowouts. These teams actually scored exactly the same amount of points on the season, averaging just over 43 points per game. Wisconsin allowed nearly twice as many points as TCU did this year. Wisconsin has had mixed results under Coach Bielema in bowl games splitting the last four years but this may be a better situation for TCU out to prove itself against on major conference foe. Wisconsin may end up favored in this game so waiting for value may be worth it.

• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--Bret Bielema is 14-1 OVER off a win by 10+ points over Big 10 rival as WISCONSIN coach.
--WISCONSIN is 8-0 OVER vs. teams with completion pct. of 62% or better over L2 seasons.
--WISCONSIN is 9-1 OVER off a home win over the L2 seasons.

• AMAZING SITUATIONAL TRENDS: HC Bret Bielema’s squad has bulldozed its way to a current 6-0 SU and ATS win skein. And with Wisconsin owning a 7-0 SU and ATS mark as a bowler off an ATS win of 7 or more points, things are starting to even out, wouldn’t you say! Not when we factor in Bielema’s 3-8-1 ATS failure versus unbeaten teams, and Field General Gary Patterson’s ‘Amazing' 21-8-1 ATS record (72.4%) as a dog or favorite of less than 7 points against a greater than .600 opponent. The clincher comes from our database: Underdogs in BCS bowl games that allow 19.5 or more PPG on the season are 1-12 ATS if they scored 24 or more points in the final game of the regular season.

• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - All teams where the first half total is 28.5 to 31.5 (WISCONSIN) - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (>=4.8 YPR), in non-conference games.
(30-4 since 1992.) (88.2%, +25.6 units. Rating = 5*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 29.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 18.2, Opponent 18.2 (Total first half points scored = 36.5)

The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (24-4).

• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - All teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (TCU) - in a game involving two excellent offensive teams (>=440 YPG), after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.
(33-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (80.5%, +24.2 units. Rating = 4*)

The average total posted in these games was: 60.8
The average score in these games was: Team 36.3, Opponent 38.2 (Total points scored = 74.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 29 (70.7% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (6-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-3).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (41-15).

**Spark** · 12-31-2010, 11:13 AM

••• FIESTA BOWL •••

CONNECTICUT (8-4) VS. OKLAHOMA (11-2)
University of Phoenix Stadium - Phoenix, AZ
Kickoff: 8:30 p.m. EDT Line: Oklahoma -17 O/U 55
------------------------------------------------------------
GAME BREAKDOWN: The Sooners closed the season as one of the hottest teams in the nation with four straight wins over bowl teams. Oklahoma got to the Big XII championship by virtue of a tiebreaker and the Sooners will play in a BCS bowl for the fourth time in five years. Oklahoma is just 3-9 ATS in the last twelve bowl games and the Sooners have a history of playing poorly in these games but they will be the biggest favorites of the bowl season. Connecticut has four losses including a few ugly ones but the Huskies put together five straight wins in the Big East to take the conference through tiebreakers.

Statistically Connecticut has been out-gained by about 28 yards per game on average but the Huskies have a good running game and a solid defense. Special teams play has been a strong point and Connecticut also has one of the top turnover margins in the nation. Connecticut has won outright in four straight games as underdogs and the numbers over the years are impressive for the Huskies when getting points. Coach Edsall has been a candidate for other positions so there could be distractions and a great turnout from Connecticut fans is unlikely but Oklahoma is hard to trust.

• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--CONNECTICUT is 9-0 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders over the L2 seasons.
--CONNECTICUT is 11-2 ATS as an underdog over the L2 seasons.
--CONNECTICUT is 9-1 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games over L2 seasons.

• CFB BOWL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK: Play On any bowl underdog off a win who owns a positive team net YPR versus a foe who owns a negative team net YPR if the opponent won 8 or fewer games last season. ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 21-3 (88.0%).

• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (OKLAHOMA) - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences.
(35-7 since 1992.) (83.3%, +27.3 units. Rating = 4*)

The average total posted in these games was: 52.8
The average score in these games was: Team 24.1, Opponent 20.6 (Total points scored = 44.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 24 (57.1% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (19-3).

• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 25 to 28 (CONNECTICUT) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences.
(47-18 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.3%, +27.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 26.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.6, Opponent 10.8 (Total first half points scored = 24.4)

The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (28-12).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (65-29).

**Udog** · 12-31-2010, 12:03 PM

NCAAF
Write-Up

Friday, 12/31/2010

Car Care Bowl
Charlotte noon
South Florida won three of last four bowls; they were favored in all four games; last time they were bowl dog, it was here in '05, when they lost 14-0 to NC State (+3.5). QB Daniels was hurt during season but expects to play here; he's no great shakes but is mobile when healthy. Four of last five USF games were decided by 3 or less points- they finished year 4-2, instead of folding down stretch like they had in previous seasons.

Clemson lost three of last four bowls, despite being favored in all four-- they've got a soph QB who is quitting football to go play pro baseball, which is part of why Tigers struggled so much in '10. Clemson might be 6-6, but they lost to unbeaten Auburn in OT. Tigers scored 14 points or less in four of last five games; their last eight games stayed under. This is a talented team but as usual, Clemson underachieved.

Favorites are 4-3 vs spread in last seven Car Care Bowls, even though in three of last four, the deciding margin was one or two points. ACC clubs lost last two, after winning first five Car Care Bowls.

Sun Bowl
El Paso 2:00
Miami fired its coach and its new starting QB sprained his ankle during week at practice, so previous starter Harris gets nod here. 'canes lost last two bowls 24-17/20-14; their only bowl win since '04 (1-3) was against Nevada by a point. Miami is 2-3 in last five games, losing as 12/15 point favorites to Virginia/USF. With as many distractions as they've had since season ended, not sure how Miami could be favored over anyone.

Notre Dame has one bowl win since 1994, two years ago at Hawai'i in Hawai'i Bowl (49-21); their last four bowl losses are all by 14+ points. Irish won last three games to get to 7-5, allowing only 22 points in those wins- they beat USC for first time in nine years in an LA monsoon. ND allowed 20 or less points in its wins, 28+ in its losses- they're 3-1 when an underdog this year. Irish are 4-1 vs spread away from home.

If you omit the 3-0 Oregon State-Pitt debacle two years ago, the average total in last six Sun Bowls would be 68.5. Hard to endorse Miami when they have separate issues involving firing the coach and injured QB.

Liberty Bowl
Memphis 3:30
Central Florida is 0-3 in bowl games, losing 10-3 to Miss State of SEC in this game three years ago- they gave up 49-45 points in their other bowl appearances. Knights had best season ever under O'Leary, winning eight of last nine games. UCF was underdog only once all year, losing 17-13 at Kansas State (+7)- they allowed 12.7 ppg in winning last three games. UCF converted over 50% on third down in eight of its last nine games.

Georgia won its last four bowls, covering last three as a favorite; Richt was at Florida State with Bobby Bowden when Seminoles were winning all their bowl games. Dawgs started this season 1-4, then got hot when star WR Green's suspension ended- they won five of last seven games, scoring 31 points in both their last two losses. Six of last seven Georgia games went over the total. Dawgs allowed 31+ points in last four games vs D-I foes.

Underdogs covered five of last six Liberty Bowls; weather has often been a factor in this game, so check the weather before playing totals. A game with two really good young QBs is expected to produce lot of points.

Chick-fil-A Bowl
Atlanta 7:30
South Carolina lost four of last five bowls, despite being favored in four of the five games; they scored total of 10 points in losing bowls the last two years (31-10/20-7). 9-4 Gamecocks allowed 31+ points in all four of their losses- they made SEC title game for first time, but got blown out by Auburn. Carolina is 5-3 as favorite this year- they were +2 or better in turnovers in each of its last four wins.

Florida State won three of its last four bowls, with average total of 60.8 in the four games- they were underdog in three of the four games. FSU's last three bowl wins were all by 12+ points. Seminoles allowed 19 or less points in all their wins this year; they gave up 47-28-37-44 points in the four losses- they're 1-2 as an underdog. Ponder is expected to play after missing ACC title game with an elbow injury.

South Carolina is 4-11 all-time in bowls; Spurrier is 7-9 as a bowl coach. Would expect pretty good game; both teams have veteran QBs. They've both had good seasons, so they should be excited to be here. Underdogs won SU in four of last five Chick-fil-A Bowls.

**Udog** · 12-31-2010, 12:07 PM

NCAAF

Friday, 12/31/2010

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What Bettors Need to Know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Liberty Bowl: UCF Knights vs. Georgia Bulldogs (-6.5, 54)

The Skinny: Georgia (6-6, 5-7 ATS) is more talented, but No. 24 Central Florida (10-3, 10-3 ATS) arrives in Memphis with more to prove.

The Conference USA champ wants to earn its first bowl victory (0-3) and make its case for inclusion in a potentially expanded Big East. Coach George O’Leary aims to validate his second 10-win season by beating an SEC team featuring several future NFL players.

The Bulldogs will be playing their 14th straight bowl game and are trying to win their fifth in a row. Coming off a highly disappointing season, Georgia views this game as a momentum-builder for 2011. The Bulldogs need to win to avoid their first losing season since 1996.

Georgia will be without Caleb King, who is second on the team in rushing (430 yards), due to academic issues as well as corner Derek Owens and guard A.J. Harmon.

Point Spread: Georgia -6.5. Over/under 54

The spread has fallen from its opening post of a touchdown while the total dropped from as high as 56 points to 54 as of Thursday.

Georgia’s Edge: The Bulldogs’ passing game will be the best one Central Florida has seen all season. Aaron Murray has thrown for 2,851 yards, most ever by a Georgia freshman. Wideout A.J. Green is likely playing his last college game. The potential top-five draft pick has 771 receiving yards and nine touchdowns despite missing the first four games due to suspension. Wideouts Kris Durham and Tavarres King and tight end Orson Charles all have at least 400 receiving yards.

Central Florida’s Edge: UCF should be able to stuff Georgia’s running game. Central Florida ranks 10th nationally in rush defense, allowing 110.4 yards per game and just 3.4 yards per carry. Defensive tackles Victory Gray and Wes Tunuufi Sauvao have been winning up front, enabling a veteran linebacking corps to make tackles near the line of scrimmage.

The Quarterbacks: Murray was a pleasant surprise, throwing 24 touchdowns against six interceptions. The redshirt freshman proved to be a gritty leader by absorbing big hits to make big plays downfield. He also kept drives alive by running for 163 yards.

Central Florida’s Jeff Godfrey, a true freshman, earned the starting job by the third game. He ran for 546 yards, second on the team, and became a more accurate passer as the season progressed. Godfrey hit 68.4 percent of his throws for 2,042 yards, with 13 touchdowns and six interceptions. In the conference championship game, he completed 15 of 19 passes for 167 yards and a score.

NFL Prospects: Georgia — WR A.J. Green, LB Justin Houston, CB Brandon Boykin, LB Darryl Gamble, LB Akeem Dent, G Clint Boling. Central Florida — DE Bruce Miller

Bowl history: Georgia is 26-16-3 in bowls and has won four in a row, including last year’s 44-20 victory over Texas A&M in the Independence Bowl. The Bulldogs are 7-2 in bowls under Richt.

UCF is 0-3 in bowls, including last year’s 45-24 loss to Rutgers in the St. Petersburg Bowl. The Knights also lost to Mississippi State in the 2007 Liberty Bowl and to Nevada in the 2005 Hawaii Bowl.

Etc.: The Knights average 192.5 rushing yards per game with no dominant back. Running backs Latavius Murray and Ronnie Weaver and the quarterback Godfrey all have more than 500 rushing yards. … Godfrey needs 30 passing yards to break Daunte Culpepper’s school record for a freshman quarterback. ... Georgia linebacker Justin Houston finished second in the SEC with 10 sacks. ... Fellow linebacker Akeem Dent’s 122 tackles were second most in the SEC. He has 6.5 tackles for loss. … Murray’s 24 touchdowns are one shy of the school’s single-season record set by Matthew Stafford in 2008. … Godfrey and Murray rank 1-2 in the nation in passing efficiency among freshmen. ... In 2001, when O’Leary coached Georgia Tech, the Yellow Jackets beat Richt’s Bulldogs 31-17. Georgia and Central Florida have played once, a 24-23 Bulldogs win in Athens, Ga., in 1999.

Weather: The forecast in Memphis is calling for scattered thundershowers and a 60 percent chance of rain Friday. Winds will blow south-southeast from corner to corner at speed of up to 25 mph. Game-time temperatures will be in the high 60s.

Trends:

- Knights are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
- Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven bowl games as favorites.
- Under is 7-1 in Knights’ last eight non-conference games.
- Over is 9-4 in Bulldogs’ last 13 neutral-site games.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 12-31-2010, 11:14 PM

NCAAF
Write-Up

Saturday, January 1

Ticket City Bowl
Dallas, noon
Texas Tech's bowl history isn't relevant because of uniqueness of Mike Leach's system, which is now elsewhere, but Tech did win three of last four bowls, with average total in those games, 74.3- they were favored in their last five bowls (1-4 vs spread). Tech's DC was let go after it came out he was trying to get a job at Florida. Tuberville is 6-3 as head coach in bowls. Its hard to lay points with a defense as slow as Tech's.

Northwestern lost its QB at end of regular season and was typically bad from that point on, losing 48-27/70-23 in its last two tames. Wildcats lost their last five bowls, going 3-1 vs spread in last four, losing last two years in OT- they've allowed average of 42.4 ppg in last five bowls (were underdog in all five), Interested to see of coaches can get their young backup QB ready to play better than he did in November.

This is a new bowl, so no history; Texas Tech figures to have big edge in crowd support, seeing as game is in Texas and all. Northwestern hasn't won a bowl game since 1948, losing their last seven bowl games.

Outback Bowl
Tampa 1:00
Penn State won four of last five bowl games, beating Tennessee (20-10), LSU (19-17); only loss was to USC in Rose Bowl. Lions lost four games this year by 20+ points; they're 2-3 as an underdog. Weird to see a Penn State team that allowed 21+ points in each of its last eight games. Lions have QB issues; McGloin is the better of the two now, but Bolden is the future. Paterno is 7-2 vs spread in his last nine bowls vs SEC teams.

This is Urban Meyer's swan song with Florida, which had disappointing 7-5 season in first year after Tebow left; Gators won/covered four of last five bowls, scoring 36.4 ppg, with two of those games for national title. Florida lost by 22 to South Carolina, 24 to Florida State in its last three games, a bad sign. Gators allowed 31+ points in four of last six games vs D-I opponents. Florida uses three kids at QB because starter isn't a good enough runner to run the spread properly.

Penn State's punter is hurt; Florida's kicker is hurt, so miscues on those special teams are likely. Underdogs covered four of the last six Outback Bowls; Penn State is 3-0 in this bowl. Weird that the 45-year old coach is retiring, and the 84-year old coach isn't. Wouldn't give points here.

Capital One Bowl
Orlando 1:00
Michigan State lost its last four bowl games, three by 10+ points- they were underdogs in all four games (1-3 vs spread); State lost to Georgia in this game two years ago, 24-12. Spartans had a great year, winning share of league title for first time in 20 yesrs; this is their third January bowl in last 21 years, so they'll be plenty excited. State is 2-1 as underdog, with only loss 37-6 at Iowa- they upset both Wisconsin/Michigan.

Alabama is 3-2 in last five bowls, 2-1 under Saban, who also used to be Michigan State's coach (he even made Tony Banks look good). Current Spartan coach Dantonio worked for Saban in East Lansing. Saban has a 5-6 career record in bowls. Bama has a senior QB and star RB Ingram is from Michigan, so think that even though Tide is dosappointed after big loss to Auburn in Iron Bowl (led 24-0), they'll be fired up for this game.

Favorites are 2-5 vs spread in last seven Capital One Bowls, but one of the favorites covered in OT; four of last five totals in this bowl were 36 or less points, strange for a warm weather bowl.

Gator Bowl
Jacksonville 1:00
Michigan is in bowl for first time since 2007; they lost four of last five bowls, allowing 32+ points in last four; average total in last five bowls is 66.3. Wolverines have explosive Robinson at QB but his backup Forcier isn't playing here- Michigan lost five of last seven games; their defense is hideous- they allowed 65 points in one of their wins!!! Michigan is 0-8 vs spread in its last eight games, 2-6 vs spread when they're favored.

Mississippi State gave coach Mullen a $2.6M/year contract this week, thats how quickly he revitalized their program. Bulldogs are in bowl for first time since '07 and second time in last decade- they've won last three bowls, despite being underdog in all three. State is 5-1 vs spread as fave vs D-I opponents; they beat Georgia by 12, Florida by 3, but lost in OT to Arkansas, to Alabama 30-10 and tough 17-14 game to Auburn.

Underdogs covered last four Gator Bowls, winning last two SU; average total in last seven Gator Bowls is 58.3. This is first time in at least seven years an SEC team has played in this bowl, which is site of the Georgia-Florida game every year.

Rose Bowl
Pasadena 5:00
Wisconsin doesn't often have the same starting QB two years in a row, but they do this year, and they've crushed teams, winning their last four games, all by 20+ points. Badgers are 3-2 in last five bowls, all of which were played in Florida; only one of those five bowls had more than 38 points scored. Badgers are a bowl underdog for sixth year in row. Only game Wisconsin lost was to 11-1 Michigan State; they beat Arizona St. and Iowa by a single point each.

TCU beat Oregon State 30-21, Baylor 45-10, so they've beaten couple of pretty good BCS teams; Horned Frogs won four of their last five bowls, splitting pair with Boise State in last two bowls- this is sixth year in row Horned Frogs are bowl favorite, but Rose Bowl is uncharted territory, as is playing a huge Wisconsin offensive line. Badgers will try to bully the smallish TCU defense.

Last time the Rose Bowl didn't have a Pac-10 team was 2004, the Texas 38-37 win over USC (Young/Leinart game); average total in last six Rose Bowls is 62.5. Underdogs covered last four Rose Bowls that USC wasn't favored to win.

Fiesta Bowl
Glendale 8:30
UConn is in its first BCS bowl but had trouble selling tickets; they're in fourth straight bowl and are 3-1 in bowls overall, winning 38-20/20-7 in last two bowls. This is a huge step up for their progam. Huskies started out year poorly, losing 30-10 at Michigan, then losing to Temple after a I-AA win, but they won their last five games after tossing their QB off the team. Three of those last five wins were by three or less points.

Oklahoma has history of failure in these games, losing three of last four bowls, losing twice as 7-point favorites, both in this game- underdogs are 4-1 vs spread in their last five bowls. Sooners' last two bowl wins are by 4-3 points. Oklahoma played seven games away from home this season, and allowed 29 ppg in those games, a surprisingly high average. All seven of those opponents scored 20+ points, so Oklahoma's defense isn't what it has been in previous seasons.

Edsall is a good coach who has every motivational tool on his side; most experts scoff at the Big East, everyone thinks UConn is a hoops school, no one gives them a chance to win. Washington's win over Nebraska is a warning to Oklahoma that they better come ready to play. Underdogs covered last four Fiesta Bowls; they're 4-3 SU in last seven.

**Udog** · 12-31-2010, 11:15 PM

NCAAF

Saturday, January 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What Bettors Need to Know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Outback: Penn State vs. Florida (-7, 48)

The Skinny: The focus of this Outback Bowl matchup will be on the sidelines. Penn State coach Joe Paterno, 83, has led the Nittany Lions since 1966. His counterpart, 46-year-old Florida coach Urban Meyer, will coach his final game after announcing his resignation Dec. 8.

Texas defensive coordinator Will Muschamp was named as Meyer's replacement on Dec. 11.

Penn State (7-5, 4-4) won three of its first four games this season, then appeared to right the ship after losing to Iowa and Illinois. A three-game winning streak, all by double-digit margins, gave the Nittany Lions momentum heading into the final three games. But Penn State dropped two of its final three, falling to Ohio State and Michigan State.

One year after finishing the regular season unbeaten and reaching the SEC Championship Game, Florida (7-5, 4-4) was a non-factor in the conference and national title races. A three-game losing streak in midseason included a four-point loss to LSU and a three-point defeat to Mississippi State, both at home. The Gators lost two of their final three, falling to South Carolina 36-14 and Florida State 31-7.

Penn State’s Edge: The Nittany Lions’ strength lies with their defense, a unit that allowed just 22.6 points per game to rank 40th in the nation in that category. Penn State’s pass defense was strong, holding opponents to just 187.9 yards passing per game, ranking second in the conference and 23rd in the nation. The Nittany Lions’ offensive line allowed just 11 sacks in 12 games, leading the Big Ten and tying for 12th in the country.

Florida’s Edge: Chas Henry leads the nation in punting average (46.4 yards per punt), and Florida ranks first in the nation in net punting (41.8 yards) and fourth in kickoff returns (26.8 yards). The Gators rank ninth overall in total defense, allowing 302.9 yards per game and holding the opposition under 20 points seven times in 12 games. Florida was particularly good against the pass, ranking 13th nationally at 173 yards per contest.

The Quarterbacks: Two underclassmen split duties under center for Penn State this season. Freshman Robert Bolden got most of the snaps for the first seven games, but did not play in two of the Nittany Lions’ final five games. Bolden has passed for 1,360 yards and five touchdowns, but threw seven interceptions. Sophomore Matthew McGloin did not throw a pass until Week 7 against Minnesota, but passed for 300 or more yards in Penn State’s final two games. He finished with 1,337 yards and 13 touchdowns with only four interceptions.

Florida quarterback John Brantley, taking over for the graduated Tim Tebow, scuffled through an up-and-down campaign. The junior threw as many interceptions as touchdowns (nine) and surpassed 200 yards passing only four times. In Florida’s five losses, Brantley did not throw a touchdown pass while throwing six interceptions.

NFL Prospects: Penn State — C Stefen Wisniewski; RB Evan Royster; DT Ollie Ogbu; Florida — SS Ahmad Black; P Chas Henry; OT Marcus Gilbert; OG Mike Pouncey

Bowl history: Penn State is 27-13-2 all-time in bowl games, holding the second-highest winning percentage of all FBS teams (64.3 percent). Of the Nittany Lions’ 42 previous bowl appearances, 36 have come under Paterno (24-11-1). This is Penn State’s fourth Outback Bowl appearance; the Nittany Lions are 3-0.

For all its recent success, Florida is just 18-19 all-time in bowl games. The Gators have won four of their past five bowl appearances, including victories in the BCS National Championship Game in 2006 over Ohio State and 2008 over Oklahoma. Florida has appeared in three Outback Bowls, going 1-2.

The Gators and Nittany Lions have met twice in bowl games. Florida won the 1962 Gator Bowl 17-7, and the 1997 Florida Citrus Bowl 21-6.

Etc.: Paterno comes in with a career record of 401-134-3. … Meyer is 6-1 in bowl games. … The two teams lost a combined 10 games this season, nine coming against ranked teams. … Penn State running back Evan Royster needs 84 yards to reach 1,000 on the season. … Florida running back Jeffery Demps is averaging 6.0 yards per carry, down from the 7.5 he averaged one season ago. … Since 1990, Florida won fewer than eight games just once before this season, going 7-5 in 2004. … Before this season, Penn State won nine games or more in five consecutive seasons ... Florida will be without four starters due to injuries: cornerback Janoris Jenkins, offensive tackle Maurice Hurt and defensive tackles Lawrence Marsh and Terron Sanders.

Gator: Michigan vs. Mississippi State (-3.5, 59.5)

The Skinny: When first announced, this looked like a battle between two coaches who might not be at their respective schools for much longer. One, Michigan’s Rich Rodriguez, is on the hot seat after another down year in Ann Arbor. Brought in three years ago to resurrect a program that had slipped to 9-4 in Lloyd Carr’s final season, Rodriguez is now hoping to keep his job after his team faded down the stretch again and got blasted by Ohio State in its final regular season game.

Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen was rumored to be on the move too. He's considered a hot commodity after turning the Bulldogs into a top-25 team and leading them into their second bowl game in the last 10 years. His name was mentioned in connection to the Miami and Florida openings, but Mullen appears to be settled in Starkville for the time being.

Rodriguez's future, however, is yet to be determined.

Michigan’s Edge: The Wolverines often need to outscore teams to win and quarterback Denard Robinson has been capable of doing that by himself at times this season. The Big Ten Player of the Year, Robinson set the FBS single-season rushing record for a quarterback with 1,643 yards and ranks third nationally in total offense at 329.9 yards per game.

Mississippi State’s Edge: The running game. Running back Vick Ballard and quarterback Chris Relf could eat up chunks of yardage against the Wolverines' porous defense, keeping Robinson off the field. One star of that running game is offensive tackle Derek Sherrod, a possible NFL draft pick and the anchor to a rushing attack that averages 215.8 yards per game.

The Quarterbacks: The sophomore Robinson took over for Tate Forcier at the beginning of the season and has passed for 2,316 yards and 16 touchdowns in addition to his gaudy rushing numbers. He is completing 62 percent of his passes and averaging more than 9 yards per attempt.

The Bulldogs' Relf will be going up against the 111th-ranked passing defense in the nation. Relf came on at the end of the season, passing for a season-high 288 yards and three touchdowns in a win over rival Ole Miss on Nov. 27. He also rushed for 683 yards and four touchdowns in 2010.

NFL Prospects: Michigan — C David Molk, G Steve Schilling, OLB Jonas Mouton, S Troy Woolfork, ILB Obi Ezeh, NT Mike Martin. Mississippi State — OT Derek Sherrod, DE Pernell McPhee, OLB Kenneth Wright.

Bowl history: Michigan will be playing it’s first bowl under Rodriguez and is 19-20 all-time in bowl games. A four-year losing streak was snapped in the 2007 Capital One Bowl, when the Wolverines sent Lloyd Carr out with a 41-35 win over Florida.

Mississippi State is 7-6 all-time, having last played in the 2007 Liberty Bowl and earning a 10-3 win over Central Florida.

Etc.: Many believe an embarrassing performance against the Bulldogs could be the final straw for Rodriguez. Special teams are also a big concern for the Wolverines going into New Year’s Day.

Rose: TCU vs. Wisconsin (+3, 57.5)

THE SKINNY: Outside of the national championship, this is one of the most anticipated matchups of the bowl season. Texas Christian University (12-0) completed its second consecutive undefeated regular season, and has a chance to make a major statement against one of the Big Ten’s best, Wisconsin (11-1).

TCU quarterback Andy Dalton has put together another remarkable season, and the Frogs have the top-ranked defense in the country.

Wisconsin finished the season strong, too, winning its last seven games. Perhaps more impressively, the Badgers scored 83, 48 and 70 points in the final three weeks of the regular season. A standout offensive line created running lanes for the trio of James White, Montee Ball and John Clay, and gave quarterback Scott Tolzien plenty of time to dissect defenses.

WISCONSIN’S EDGE: The Badgers’ offense is playing as well as any in the country. During their seven-game winning streak to close out the regular season, the Badgers averaged 48.3 points. The Wisconsin offensive line may be the best in the country, and the Badgers have a talented corps of running backs to take advantage of it. Defensively, the Badgers have shown a knack for forcing turnovers with 23 takeaways this season.

TCU’S EDGE: Despite an unbeaten record and a lofty BCS ranking, TCU enters the game with something to prove. The Badgers, after all, come from a big-time conference, and have played well of late. But TCU has carved out a competitive program in the talent-rich state of Texas, and has NFL-caliber players on both sides of the ball. Jeremy Kerley is a game-changer on offense and special teams, Dalton is a proven winner and, statistically, the Frogs have the nation’s best defense.

THE QUARTERBACKS: Wisconsin senior quarterback Scott Tolzien has shown he’s one of the most accurate passers in the nation, leading the country in completion percentage (74.3) and posting the fourth-best quarterback rating (169.8).

TCU’s Dalton is the winningest quarterback in school history, and has led the Frogs to back-to-back BCS bowls. This year, Dalton threw for more than 2,600 yards with 26 touchdowns and only six interceptions. He had at least one touchdown pass in every game this year, too.

NFL PROSPECTS: Wisconsin – OT Gabe Carimi; TE Lance Kendricks; OG John Moffitt; QB Scott Tolzien; SS Jay Valai. TCU – OT Marcus Cannon; OLB Wayne Daniels; QB Andy Dalton; C Jake Kirkpatrick; FS Tejay Johnson; WR Jeremy Kerley.

BOWL HISTORY: Wisconsin is 11-10 all-time in bowls, and will be making its ninth straight bowl appearance. The Badgers won the Champs Sports Bowl last year. They are back in the Rose Bowl for the first time since 2000 and the seventh time in school history. The Badgers have won their last three Rose Bowl games.

TCU is 11-14-1 all-time in bowls, but 7-4 in bowl games under Gary Patterson. After winning four consecutive bowl games, the Frogs fell to Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl last season.

Etc.: Wisconsin and TCU have met once before on the gridiron, playing to a 14-14 tie at Wisconsin in 1970. … The Badgers are 3-3 all-time in the Rose Bowl. … TCU is facing a Big Ten opponent for the first time since a 48-45 double-overtime victory over Northwestern in 2004 season opener.

BETTING TRENDS

The over is 7-1-1 in the Badgers' last eight games but 0-6-1 in the Frogs' last seven bowl games.

TCU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games.

Wisconsin is 4-0 ATS in its last four games against teams with winning records and 4-1 in its last five contests as an underdog.

Fiesta: Connecticut vs. Oklahoma (-16.5, 54.5)

THE SKINNY: The Fiesta Bowl meeting between the Big 12 champion Sooners and the Big East champion Huskies is the biggest mismatch of the BCS bowls on paper. The Sooners (11-2) head to Glendale, Ariz., as double-digit favorites. Bob Stoops’ team capped the regular season by beating four straight bowl teams, highlighted by a dramatic comeback win over Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship Game.

UConn (8-4) also finished strong and sneaks into the BCS party despite having twice as many losses as Boise State and Michigan State combined. The Huskies recovered from consecutive ugly losses to Rutgers (27-24) and Louisville (26-0) in October to win their last five games. UConn also has a 30-16 loss to Temple on its resume.

OKLAHOMA’S EDGE: Oklahoma’s talented young secondary blossomed down the stretch and presents a severe test for a UConn passing offense that ranks 113th in efficiency. The Sooners picked off eight of their 17 interceptions in the final four games and finished seventh nationally in turnover margin.

UCONN’S EDGE: Running back Jordan Todman leads the Huskies offense and will press an Oklahoma run defense that allowed 151 rushing yards per game. Todman finished second in the nation in rushing, averaging 143 yards per game.

The Huskies could have an advantage in field position, as well. UConn is sixth in the nation in kickoff returns. Oklahoma allowed three kickoff return touchdowns this season, including one in each of its losses.

THE QUARTERBACKS: Oklahoma sophomore Landry Jones was one of only three quarterbacks to throw for more than 4,000 yards this season. Hawaii’s Bryant Moniz and Oklahoma State’s Brandon Weeden are the others. Jones, 6-foot-4 pocket passer, will enter next season among the Heisman favorites.

UConn’s Zach Frazer has experienced a bumpy senior season, throwing just five touchdowns with four interceptions in an injury-plagued campaign. He lost the starting spot in preseason camp to sophomore Cody Endres, but regained it after Endres was suspended to start the season.

Frazer missed two games in October with a knee injury, before returning to start the final five games, all of which were wins.

NFL PROSPECTS: Oklahoma – OLB Jeremy Beal; RB DeMarco Murray; WR Ryan Broyles; S Quinton Carter. UConn – FB Anthony Sherman; OLB Larence Wilson; RB Jordan Todman.

BOWL HISTORY: Oklahoma is 25-17-1 all-time in bowls, but has lost of three its last four postseason appearances, as well as its last three trips to the Fiesta Bowl. The Sooners are 5-6 in bowls overall under Stoops, who has his team in a BCS bowl for the eighth time in his 12-year tenure.

This is UConn’s fourth straight bowl appearance under coach Randy Edsall. The Huskies upset South Carolina 20-7 in last season’s PajaJohns.com Bowl to improve to 3-1 all-time in bowl games.

ETC.: Edsall emerged as a candidate for the Miami (Fla.) coaching position in early December ... Oklahoma offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson was hired as the new head coach at Indiana. Oklahoma quarterbacks coach Josh Heupel will call plays for the Sooners against the UConn.

TRENDS

UConn is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games overall.

Oklahoma is 0-4 ATS in its last four bowl games as a favorite and 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games.

The under is 5-1 in the Huskies' last six games as underdogs and 7-3 in the Sooners' last 10 non-conference games.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 12-31-2010, 11:51 PM

NCAAF

Saturday, January 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tips and Trends
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TCU Horned Frogs vs Wisconsin Badgers [ESPN | 5:00 PM ET]

HORNED FROGS: (-3, O/U 58.5) TCU will be playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight, because they believe they should be playing in the BCS Championship game. The Horned Frogs are a perfect 12-0 SU this season, one of 3 undefeated teams in the nation. TCU is also 7-5 ATS overall this year. TCU was 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS away from home this season. Tonight will mark just the 2nd time this season they are just a single digit favorite. The Horned Frogs are known for their defense, as they led the nation allowing just 11.4 PPG. Only 3 opponents scored more than 17 PTS against TCU this year. Offensively, the Horned Frogs averaged 43.3 PPG this year, 4th best in the country. The Horned Frogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. TCU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. The Horned Frogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. TCU is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games played on grass. The Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. TCU is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.

Horned Frogs are 7-1 ATS last 8 games as a favorite up to a field goal.
Under is 6-0-1 last 7 bowl games.

Key Injuries - QB Andy Dalton (elbow) is probable.

Projected Score: 28 (UNDER-Total of the Day)

BADGERS: Wisconsin just might be the hottest team in the nation. The Badgers have been simply dominant over the past few months, especially offensively. The Badgers are 11-1 SU this season, with their lone loss coming on the road against another 1 loss team in Michigan St. Wisconsin is also 7-5 ATS overall this year. Wisconsin is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS away from home this season. The Badgers are a perfect 2-0 both SU and ATS as the listed underdog this year. Wisconsin averages 43.3 PPG this year, 4th best in the nation. However, in their past 3 games alone, the Badgers have scored a total of 201 points. Wisconsin features a running game that averages 247 YPG rushing. Defensively, the Badgers allow 20.5 PPG, 29th best in the country. The Badgers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win. Wisconsin is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. The Badgers are 4-0 ATS against a team with a winning record. Wisconsin is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. The Badgers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. Wisconsin is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played on grass. The Badgers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. The Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the MWC.

Badgers are 6-0 ATS last 6 games overall.
Over is 7-1 last 8 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.

Key Injuries - LB Shaq Wilson (hamstring) is questionable.

Projected Score: 24

Oklahoma Sooners vs UCONN Huskies [ESPN | 8:30 PM ET]

SOONERS: (-17, O/U 55) Oklahoma beat both Oklahoma St. and Nebraska to make their way to the Fiesta Bowl. The Sooners were 11-2 SU and 7-6 ATS overall this season, leading to a #7 national ranking. Both of the Sooners losses this year came on the road, where they are just 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS. Oklahoma is 3-3 ATS as a double digit favorite overall this year. QB Landry Jones leads an elite passing offense that is averaging more than 335 YPG passing, 4th best in the nation. Overall, the Sooners are averaging 36.4 PPG this season. Defensively, the Sooners aren't as potent as they typically are. Oklahoma is allowing 21.9 PPG, just 35th best in the nation this year. The Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss. Oklahoma is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. The Sooners are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as the listed favorite. Oklahoma is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. The Sooners are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Oklahoma is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games.

Sooners are 15-7 ATS last 22 games as a favorite more than 10 PTS.
Under is 13-3 last 16 games played on grass.

Key Injuries - DL Casey Walker (knee) is questionable.

Projected Score: 31

HUSKIES: Some people consider this Connecticut team to be the worst team ever to play in a BCS game. Others think the Big East Champions should be playing before New Years Day. Regardless, the Huskies are 8-4 both SU and ATS this year, and playing Oklahoma in a high profile game. The Huskies come into tonight underrated, a big reason this team went 8-4 ATS this season. UCONN is 2-4 SU and ATS away from home this year. The Huskies are 4-2 both SU and ATS this season as the listed underdog. Tonight marks the 1st time this year that the Huskies are a double digit underdog. UCONN has had the same exact result both SU and ATS in each game they've played this year. RB Jordan Todman will get the ball over and over again, trying to keep the high powered Oklahoma offense off the field. Todman rushed for 1,574 YDS and 14 TD's this season. The Huskies average 26.9 PPG while allowing 19.8 PPG this season. The Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win. Connecticut is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. The Huskies are 4-0 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Huskies are 23-4 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Connecticut is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games overall. The Huskies are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games played on grass.

Huskies are 4-0 ATS last 4 games as an underdog.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games as an underdog of more than 10 points.

Key Injuries - CB Alex Kantor (head) is questionable.

Projected Score: 20 (SIDE of the Day)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 01-01-2011, 12:40 AM

NCAAF

Saturday, January 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What Bettors Need to Know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TicketCity: Northwestern vs. Texas Tech (-9, 60.5)

The Skinny: Two teams from the middle of the pack in their respective conferences offer an intriguing matchup for the inaugural TicketCity Bowl, which will be played at the Cotton Bowl on Jan. 1.

Texas Tech (7-5, 3-5 Big 12) has an athletic team that is capable of producing a bushel of points. Northwestern (7-5, 3-5 Big Ten) enters having lost three of its final four games, but will have the opportunity to get several players back from regular-season injuries.

Which team will show up? Will it be the Northwestern team that battled Michigan State to the wire or the one that was beaten by 47 points by Wisconsin? Will it be the Texas Tech team that totaled 99 points in its final two games or the one that managed only seven against Oklahoma.

Texas Tech’s Edge: The Red Raiders run an efficient passing offense that ranks No. 8 in the nation, with 314.8 passing yards per game. The running game is adequate: Baron Batch (805 yards, five TDs) and Eric Stephens (542 yards, five TDs) are a solid one-two punch. Favorite targets include Detron Lewis (79 catches, six TDs) and Lyle Leong (64 catches, 17 TDs). Lewis has caught a pass in 39 straight games, Leong in 35 straight.

Northwestern’s Edge: Northwestern has been disappointing since winning its first five games, then losing five of the next seven, including giveaway wins against Michigan State and Penn State. The Wildcats have an outstanding corps of receivers, led by All-Big Ten choice Jeremy Ebert (919 yards, eight TDs). The defense is average at best; four of the last six opponents hung 35 or more on the Wildcats and Wisconsin scored 70 in the season-finale.

The Quarterbacks: Texas Tech’s Taylor Potts has a good arm and has the ability to make quick decisions. He’s thrown for 3,357 yards and 31 touchdowns, including a 462-yard, four-touchdown effort against Baylor.

Northwestern’s Dan Persa, a first-team All-Big Ten selection, had thrown for 2,581 yards and 15 touchdowns with only four interceptions when he ruptured an Achilles tendon. He's done for the season, leaving Evan Watkins to take over. Watkins threw for 302 yards and one touchdown in the final two games.

NFL Prospects: Texas Tech — DT Colby Whitlock, OLB Brian Duncan, WR Lyle Leong, RB Baron Batch. Northwestern — OLB Quentin Davie, DT Corbin Bryant.

Bowl history: Texas Tech will be going to a bowl game for the 11th consecutive season. The Red Raiders are 11-21-1 in bowl games and have won six of their last eight, including a 41-31 victory over Michigan State in the 2009 Alamo Bowl.

Northwestern hasn’t won a bowl game since 1948, when it prevailed 20-14 over California in the Rose Bowl. The Wildcats are 1-7 in bowls, but have lost the last two years in overtime, including a 38-35 decision to Auburn in the 2009 Outback Bowl.

Etc.: Texas Tech defensive backs Will Ford (hamstring) and LaRon Moore (concussion) are expected to be available, but receiver Alex Torres is out with a knee injury suffered in the ninth game. Northwestern will be without Persa, but should have running backs Jacob Schmidt (ankle) and Mike Trumpy (wrist) back for the bowl game.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 01-02-2011, 09:56 PM

NCAAF

Monday, January 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Orange Bowl tale of the tape: V-Tech vs. Stanford
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Stanford Cardinal (-3.5, 58)

The Cardinal and Hokies enter the Orange Bowl as two of the hottest teams in college football. V-Tech went 11-0 straight up and 9-2 against the spread after losing to Boise State and James Madison to open the year.

Stanford, meanwhile, blew out the majority of its opponents and led Oregon 21-3 after the first quarter before losing 52-31 in the end.

Let’s take a look at how these two teams stack up:

OFFENSE

Led by quarterback Andrew Luck, Stanford produced the ninth highest-scoring team in the nation at 39.3 points per game. The Cardinal also finished 14th in offensive yards per game (462.7), 22nd in yards per rush attempt (5.1) and eighth in team passer rating (162.9).

But our favorite Stanford offensive statistic is how little the team punted. Stanford had the third fewest punts per offensive score in the nation at 0.4.

The Hokies, with Tyrod Taylor under center and a trio of home-run threat tailbacks, are primarily a running team but they use the ground game to set up the pass. Virginia Tech averaged just 208 yards per game in the air but finished third in the country in yards per completion at 14.4.

It’s really, really close but we’ll give a slight edge to the Cardinal on offense.

Edge: Stanford

DEFENSE

These two teams are pretty close in opponent rushing yards allowed per carry and passing yards surrendered per game. Stanford’s edge on defense comes from how little time its stopper unit spends on the field.

The Cardinal finished first in the nation in opponent time of possession at 40.48 percent, meaning Luck and the Stanford offense averaged almost 60 percent of the possession for the season. You can credit coach Jim Harbaugh’s commitment to the run game for that stat.

Virginia Tech’s defense, meanwhile, was one of the best at stopping opponents on 3rd down at 33.3 percent and allowed the 17th fewest first downs per game.

Both teams finished in the Top 7 for takeaways per game at 2.5, and that could be the deciding factor on Monday: Which defense can produce the most takeaways.

Edge: Stanford

SPECIAL TEAMS

We don’t care what the numbers say here. A Frank Beamer coached team is always going to get the edge in special teams.

Edge: Virginia Tech

WORD ON THE STREET

"I'm trying to avoid it. I don't want it to get in the way of the team, of our chances in the Orange Bowl. I think if I start thinking about it too much, it'll be a detriment and my head will be in the wrong place.” – Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, who’s projected as the top pick in NFL draft should he leave school.

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION

Stanford 38, Virginia Tech 33

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 01-02-2011, 10:03 PM

NCAAF

Monday, January 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What Bettors Need to Know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Stanford Cardinal (-3.5, 58)

THE SKINNY: As a reward for blowing away the bulk of the Pac-10, Stanford earned a trip across the country to South Florida. The Cardinal (11-1) had one of the best seasons in school history, losing only at undefeated Oregon on Oct. 2. Andrew Luck is a Heisman finalist and the current favorite to go No. 1 in the NFL draft and coach Jim Harbaugh is a hot name in coaching searches around the country.

Virginia Tech (11-2) lost its first two games — the second to FCS school James Madison — and then flew under the radar the rest of the season, knocking off the ACC with relative ease and putting up 44 points on Florida State in the conference championship game.

STANFORD’S EDGE: Auburn’s Cam Newton might walk away with all the awards, but Luck can certainly make a strong case for himself as the best passer in the nation. The third-year sophomore has the Cardinal ranked eighth nationally in scoring offense at over 40 points per game and is completing 70.2 percent of his passes this season. He has the accuracy and arm strength to pick apart defenses.

VIRGINIA TECH’S EDGE: Running back Ryan Williams is the other highly touted third-year sophomore in this game and will be one of the keys to keeping the ball out of Luck’s hands. The Hokies excel in the running game behind a trio of Williams, Darren Evans and David Wilson, who combined for 25 touchdowns this season, and quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who averages 10 rushing attempts per game and has broken off runs of 11 yards or more in all but one game this season.

THE QUARTERBACKS: Luck has studied under a former NFL quarterback in Harbaugh for the past three seasons and it shows, as he passed for 3,050 yards and 28 touchdowns against seven interceptions in 2010. He may not be in Taylor’s class as an athlete, but he can get outside the pocket and make things happen with his legs when needed.

Virginia Tech coach Frank Beamer recently suggested that Taylor could have been a Heisman Finalist if not for the two losses to open the season, and he might be right. Taylor set the school’s single season record with 23 touchdown passes and was named the ACC Player of the Year.

NFL PROSPECTS: Stanford — QB Andrew Luck, FB Owen Marecic, WR Chris Owusu, TE Konrad Reuland, C Chase Beeler. Virginia Tech — RB Ryan Williams, CB Rashad Carmichael, WR Dyrell Roberts, QB Tyrod Taylor.

BOWL HISTORY: Stanford is 9-11-1 all-time in bowl games and will be playing in the postseason for the second stright year after an eight-year drought. The Cardinal fell to Oklahoma, 31-27, in the Sun Bowl last year.

Virginia Tech will be playing in its fourth BCS Bowl in the last seven seasons and is 9-14 all-time in bowl games. The Hokies have played in 17 straight bowl games - going 8-9 - since Beamer took over the program, including three Orange Bowl appearances.

SUSPENSIONS: Virginia Tech announced six players would not be making the trip out for the Orange Bowl for disciplinary reasons but coach Frank Beamer wouldn’t name the players or tell reporters the reason for their punishment.

Beamer did confess that none of the players were part of the Hokies’ two-deep roster. Last week Beamer suspended tailback David Wilson and backup safety Antone Exum from the first quarterback of the Rose Bowl for missing the team’s New Year’s Eve curfew.

ETC.: Harbaugh has made some very critical comments about the Bowl system recently, especially in regard to the preference of choosing teams with fanbases that travel well and therefore bring in the most money. Many wonder if this will be his last game on the Stanford sidelines with higher-profile programs and NFL teams already calling.

BETTING TRENDS

The Hokies are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as underdogs and 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.

Stanford is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games and the over is 17-5 in Stanford’s last 22 games against teams with a winning record.

The over is also 4-0 in Virginia Tech’s last four games on a neutral field.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 01-03-2011, 10:27 AM

NCAAF

Monday, January 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tips and Trends
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Stanford Cardinal vs Virginia Tech Hokies [ESPN | 8:30 PM ET]

CARDINAL: (-3.5, O/U 58.5) Stanford very well might be the best team in the nation with 1 SU loss. The Cardinal are 11-1 SU and 7-4-1 ATS overall this season. Stanford is 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS overall away from home this year. Coach Harbaugh might just be coaching his final game for the Cardinal, as he's being pursued by other high profile schools and the NFL. The Cardinal average 40.3 PPG this year, 9th best in the nation. QB Andrew Luck is the likely 1st overall pick in the NFL Draft, whenever he declares. Luck had nearly 3,500 total YDS this season, including 31 TD's. Stanford has held their past 5 opponents to 17 PTS or fewer. For the year, the Cardinal are allowing just 17.8 PPG, 11th best in the nation. The Cardinal are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as the listed favorite. Stanford is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. The Cardinal are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Stanford is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Cardinal are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games played on grass.

Cardinals are 4-1 ATS last 5 non-conference games.
Over is 17-5 last 22 games against a team with a winning record.

Key Injuries - WR Chris Owusu (undisclosed) is QUESTIONABLE.

Projected Score: 27

HOKIES: Virginia Tech has won their last 11 games SU, an unbelievable turnaround considering they started the season 0-2 SU. The Hokies are 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS overall this season. Virginia Tech is currently ranked #13 in the nation, but clearly they are one of the hottest teams in the nation. The Hokies are 4-0 both SU and ATS away from home this season. Tonight will mark the 1st time this season the Hokies will be the listed underdog at kickoff. QB Tyrod Taylor directs an offense that averaged 35.5 PPG, 19th best in the country. The Hokies average 208 YPG rushing this year, 18th best in the nation. Taylor has accumulated 3,150 YDS of total offense this year, including 28 TD's. Defensively, Virginia Tech has allowed 19.1 PPG, 15th best in the nation. The Hokies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Virginia Tech is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. The Hokies are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall. The Hokies are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games played on grass. Virginia Tech is 39-17 ATS against a team with a winning record.

Hokies are 14-5 ATS last 19 games as an underdog.
Over is 4-0 last 4 neutral site games.

Key Injuries - QB Tyrod Taylor (illness) is PROBABLE.

Projected Score: 30 (SIDE of the Day)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 01-03-2011, 01:01 PM

NCAAF
Write-Up

Monday, January 3

Orange Bowl, Miami
Stanford hasn't won a bowl game (0-3) since 1996, losing to Oklahoma in LY's Sun Bowl, 31-27, which was Harbaugh's first bowl as a head coach. Cardinal has outstanding QB in Luck, who would be #1 pick in April's draft if he leaves school early. Cardinal won eight games by 25+ points, but its not going to be easy to bully the battle-tested Hokies. Stanford is 7-3 vs spread as favorite; only team that beat them (Oregon) has mobile QB, which could bode well for Taylor and the Hokies.

Virginia Tech is in Orange Bowl for third time in last four years; they're 3-2 in last five bowls, winning 20-7/37-14 last two years, After starting season with losses to Boise State/James Madison, Hokies became first team in 10 years to go unbeaten in ACC play. Tech might not be led by a future NFL QB, but Taylor has put up huge numbers in winning ton of games for Hokies. Tech hasn't been an underdog since Labor Day- they haven't lost since September 11, though they did lose to a I-AA team.

Underdogs covered four of last five Orange Bowls, winning last three SU; average total in last four Orange Bowls is 36.5. ACC teams are 1-5 in this game the last seven years. Stanford is first Pac-10 team to play in this game since USC beat Oklahoma in 2004. No way to tell if Stanford will be distracted by potential departures of Harbaugh/Luck to the NFL. Both teams come in hot; this should be a terrific game.

**Spark** · 01-03-2011, 03:06 PM

*** ORANGE BOWL ***

VIRGINIA TECH VS. STANFORD
Sun Life Stadium - Miami, FL
Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. EDT Line: Stanford -3.5 O/U 58
-----------------------------------------------------------
The 77th-annual Orange Bowl is set for January 3rd, as the ACC champion Virginia Tech Hokies square off against the Stanford Cardinal at Sun Life Stadium. Jim Harbaugh's Cardinal finished 11-1 this season, with the lone loss coming in early October at the hands of Pac-10 champion Oregon (52-31). The Cardinal rebounded from that loss however with seven straight victories, the team's longest win streak since 1991. The team's 11 total victories and eight within conference play established new school records. Stanford is making its second straight bowl appearance and 22nd overall, with a 9-11-1 mark in the previous postseason matchups. This is the first time the team has played in the Orange Bowl.

Frank Beamer's Hokies are making their fourth trip to the Orange Bowl, but it certainly didn't look remotely possible early on. The team dropped its first two games of the 2010 season, falling to Boise State and then to FCS foe James Madison. Beamer would rally the troops though, as Tech went on to win 11 straight games, closing out with a big win over Florida State (44-33) in the ACC Championship Game. The strong season earned Beamer the 2010 Paterno Coaching Award for the team's performance on the field, in the classroom and the community.

Beamer is obviously a respected coach in the sport, a notion shared by many, including Paterno. "I've always admired the job Frank Beamer has done in Blacksburg, both on the field and away from it. I've been especially impressed by his work in the community. He stands for all that's good in college sports, a great choice for this year's winner." The Hokies are making their 18th straight bowl appearance. Tech is 9-14 all- time in postseason play following a 37-14 win over Tennessee in last year's Chick-fil-A Bowl. This marks the first-ever meeting between these two teams.

The Stanford offense has been unstoppable this season, tallying a school- record 484 points (40.33 per game). It certainly came as no surprise to the followers of the program, as they believed that quarterback Andrew Luck was in store for a special season. Luck delivered in a big way, as runner-up to the Heisman Trophy. A complete package under center, Luck completed 70.2 percent of his throws for 3,051 yards and 28 TDs, with just seven INTs. He also finished second on the team with 438 yards and three more scores.

Harbaugh knows there is something special about his talented signal-caller. "When you're around him every day, you just see it. It's not hard to see. It's hard to miss, really. And then there are the other things the people don't get to see - his intangibles, how smart he is, how good his leadership skills are, his genuine humility. It's easy to see that he's going to have a bright future playing football." Luck's top target downfield was WR Doug Baldwin, who paced the team with 56 receptions, for 824 yards and nine scores.

A balanced offense, Stanford possesses a potent ground attack to play off of Luck's passing. Tailback Stepfan Taylor has eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark this year, averaging almost five yards per carry, while scoring 15 of the team's 32 rushing TDs. The ground attack is enhanced by a solid offensive line, headlined by First-Team All-American center Chase Beeler.

What makes Stanford a legitimate top-10 team is the fact that the defense has played strong as well. The Cardinal finished the year yielding a mere 17.8 ppg and made plenty of big plays, with 29 forced turnovers and 28 sacks. Leading the way on this side of the football is Shayne Skov. The sophomore LB played two less games this season, but still paced the defense with 72 tackles, with 6.5 TFLs, 4.5 sacks and two forced fumbles. Fellow LB Chase Thomas (66 tackles) is another playmaker in the middle, leading the team in TFLs (11.5) and sacks (7.5). Junior safety Delano Howell (56 tackles, four INTs) and senior CB Richard Sherman (49 tackles, four INTs) present problems for opposing QBs in the secondary.

Despite the success of the defense, coordinator Vic Fangio knows it will come down to fundamental tackling. "The biggest thing is, How well do we tackle? Are those running backs making us miss? Are they dragging us for that extra three or four yards, or are we getting them down before that happens? How are we handling the quarterback in open spaces? Are we getting him down, or is he making us miss and turning it into a schoolyard game where he really excels? To me, it's going to come down to tackling. These guys are so talented that if we don't have our best tackling game, we could be in for a long night. It could be that they're going to score a lot of points."

The Hokies are a lot like the Cardinal in terms of offensive balance. The team comes into the Orange Bowl averaging over 200 yards per game both on the ground and through the air, leading to 35.5 ppg. The Hokies were led by their own standout QB this year, as Tyrod Taylor really blossomed under center. A dangerous dual threat, Taylor completed 60.6 percent of his throws for 2,521 yards with 23 TDs and just four INTs. He was also instrumental in the ground attack, amassing 637 rushing yards and five more scores.

Taylor led the way, but plenty of Hokies followed. The backfield is stocked with talented runners that contributed this year, led by Darren Evans (817 yards, 11 TDs), David Wilson (616 yards, five TDs) and Ryan Williams (473 yards, nine TDs). Wideouts Jarrett Boykin (48 receptions, 763 yards, six TDs) and Danny Coale (32 receptions, 640 yards, three TDs) stood out in the receiving corps.

While not the feared unit of years past, the Hokie defense made plays when it counted most this year. The team allowed just 19.1 ppg, despite struggling against the run (148.9 ypg, 4.5 ypc). However, opposing passers had to a face a nightmare of a secondary that led the way to 22 interceptions. The team also finished with an impressive 33 sacks. Linebacker Bruce Taylor led the defensive unit with 84 tackles, including 15.5 TFLs and six sacks. Defensive end Steven Friday (64 tackles, 15.0 TFLs, 8.5 sacks) highlighted the play up front, while DBs Davon Morgan (76 tackles, five INTs), Jayron Hosley (37 tackles, eight INTs) and Rashad Carmichael (35 tackles, four INTs) dominated in the secondary. Hosley was named a Second-Team All-American thanks to his ball-hawking skills this season.

• PREGAME NOTES
------------------------
Few teams rose from the ashes more impressively this season than Va Tech. After suffering consecutive losses to open 2010 – including a mind-boggling home loss to FCS team James Madison as 33-point chalk – the Hokies rebounded with 11 straight wins while logging 10 ATS covers. Stanford shows up in south Florida on a 7-game win skein of its own but now must fight the long pre-bowl layoff as well as a coast-to-coast trip. That could be trouble: since 1994, the Cardinal has played 12 games in Eastern Time zone sites and they are a woeful 2-10 SU and 4-7-1 ATS in those games.

More problems arise with coach Harbaugh’s 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS mark as a favorite of fewer than 5 points and the fact that Stanford concluded its regular season with back-to-back conference revenge wins. Those numbers fit nicely with Va Tech’s impressive 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS mark versus lined teams with a winning record this season (Hokies are also 19-8 SU versus bowlers the last three years). NOTE: bowl favorites off consecutive wins, the last a conference revenge victory, are 1-18 ATS when facing a .600 or greater opponent off a win that was a winning team last season!

• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--STANFORD is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better since 1992.
The average score was STANFORD 34.4, OPPONENT 23.1 - (Rating = 4*)

--STANFORD is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was STANFORD 40.7, OPPONENT 14.4 - (Rating = 3*)

--VIRGINIA TECH is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) off 2 straight wins against conference rivals over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was VIRGINIA TECH 34.3, OPPONENT 17.5 - (Rating = 3*)

--VIRGINIA TECH is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was VIRGINIA TECH 40.8, OPPONENT 17.7 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--STANFORD is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was STANFORD 40.0, OPPONENT 37.8 - (Rating = 3*)

--STANFORD is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=6.25 yards/play over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was STANFORD 38.8, OPPONENT 34.7 - (Rating = 3*)

--VIRGINIA TECH is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) in road games vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game since 1992.
The average score was VIRGINIA TECH 29.6, OPPONENT 33.2 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--STANFORD is 48-29 against the 1rst half line (+16.1 Units) in road games after the first month of the season since 1992.
The average score was STANFORD 12.6, OPPONENT 14.8 - (Rating = 3*)

--STANFORD is 12-1 against the 1rst half line (+10.9 Units) off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival since 1992.
The average score was STANFORD 21.1, OPPONENT 6.7 - (Rating = 4*)

--STANFORD is 11-1 against the 1rst half line (+9.9 Units) after a win by 17 or more points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was STANFORD 21.1, OPPONENT 8.1 - (Rating = 4*)

--VIRGINIA TECH is 70-44 against the 1rst half line (+21.6 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992.
The average score was VIRGINIA TECH 16.6, OPPONENT 7.3 - (Rating = 4*)

--VIRGINIA TECH is 36-19 against the 1rst half line (+15.1 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored since 1992.
The average score was VIRGINIA TECH 18.0, OPPONENT 7.3 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--STANFORD is 42-18 OVER (+21.9 Units) the 1rst half total after playing 3 straight conference games since 1992.
The average score was STANFORD 14.9, OPPONENT 14.5 - (Rating = 4*)

--STANFORD is 13-2 OVER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers since 1992.
The average score was STANFORD 16.1, OPPONENT 13.9 - (Rating = 3*)

--STANFORD is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better since 1992.
The average score was STANFORD 22.4, OPPONENT 13.1 - (Rating = 3*)

• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
---------------------------------------------
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the first half total is 28.5 to 31.5 (VIRGINIA TECH) - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (>=4.8 YPR), in non-conference games.
(30-4 since 1992.) (88.2%, +25.6 units. Rating = 5*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 29.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 18.2, Opponent 18.2 (Total first half points scored = 36.5)

The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (24-4).

**Udog** · 01-03-2011, 10:15 PM

NCAAF

Tuesday, January 4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sugar Bowl tale of the tape: Arkansas vs. Ohio State
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Sugar Bowl goes Tuesday with the No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes set as 3-point favorites over the No. 8 Arkansas Razorbacks. The total is currently pegged at 56.5.

Offense:

Quarterback Ryan Mallet leads Arkansas’ eighth-ranked total offense with 3592 passing yards and 30 touchdowns to only 11 interceptions. The Razorbacks sit fourth in the country averaging 338 passing yards per game, while the running game backed by Knile Davis gives the offense some balance. He ran for 1183 yards this year with 14 touchdowns. Five different Razorbacks have at least 500 receiving yards.

Backed by quarterback Terrelle Pryor and running back Daniel Herron, the Ohio State Buckeyes have the 21st-ranked offense in the nation and average 39.4 points per game. Pryor has thrown for 2551 yards and 25 touchdowns while running for another 639 yards. Herron averages 5.6 yards per carry and has 15 rushing touchdowns.

Edge: Razorbacks

Defense:

Arkansas sits 34th in the nation in total defense, allowing 338 yards per game. The Razorbacks are good against the pass, but their run defense has some holes giving up 156 yards per contest on the ground. Outside of a 65-43 loss to Auburn, the Razorbacks have been generally steady on defense allowing just under 23 points per game.

The Ohio State ranks second in total defense, but is second to none when it comes to balance. The Buckeyes give up just 95 rushing yards (third nationally) and 156 passing yards (sixth) per game. That adds up to a dominating defense that allows only 13.3 points per outing.

Edge: Buckeyes

Special teams:

Ohio State hits just under 80 percent of its field goal tries and checks in at around 40 yards per punt. The Buckeyes also average almost 27 yards per kickoff return but only about 10 yards per punt return.

Arkansas has trouble on kick returns, taking them back to less than a 20-yard average, but ranks third in the nation on punt returns at 17.2 yards per attempt. Arkansas averages 41.5 yards per punt and hits 81 percent of its field goal tries.

Edge: Even

Word on the street:

“There are some people in the world that say John Elway was one of the best quarterbacks of all time. But, when Terrell Davis came on the scene, he became a champion. I think that’s what happened with Ryan (Mallett).” - Arkansas Offensive Coordinator Garrick McGee on his quarterback’s incredible season.

"If you knew these guys, they don't want to hurt Ohio State. These guys live and die for Ohio State. All these guys do. Making that statement (to return next year) tells me they're not giving up on their team." senior linebacker Ross Homan told reporters of the six players who will begin next season with suspensions.

Final score prediction:

Ohio State 27, Arkansas 21

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 01-03-2011, 10:18 PM

NCAAF

Tuesday, January 4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sugar Bowl: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Arkansas vs. Ohio State (-3.5, 56.5)

THE SKINNY: A fan-pleasing shootout may be on the horizon in this game, as both teams bring loads of offensive weapons into the contest.

No. 6 Ohio State (11-1), which is playing in its sixth consecutive BCS bowl and its ninth overall, averages 39.4 points and No. 8 Arkansas (10-2) averages 37.3 points. The factor which may determine this game is defense; Ohio State has allowed an average of 9.5 fewer points than Arkansas.

Ohio State brings a balanced attack, and the Buckeyes have outgained the opposition by an average of 141.7 yards over the last 17 games. Arkansas will throw under any and all conditions, which makes the Razorbacks a difficult opponent to put away.

Will the Buckeyes be distracted? News broke in late December that five players, including quarterback Terrelle Pryor, have been suspended for the first five games of the 2011 season but will be allowed to play in the Sugar Bowl. The players sold championship rings, awards and jerseys in exchange for tattoos from a local parlor.

OHIO STATE'S EDGE: The Silver Bullet Defense is one of the nation's best, ranking second in total defense (250.6 yards) and third in scoring defense (13.3 points). The Buckeyes have limited six opponents to 10 or fewer points, including rival Michigan, which managed only seven. All-American Chimdi Chekwa leads the team with three interceptions and has 42 tackles and two forced fumbles. Brian Rolle leads with 70 tackles, 10 of them for loss, and Nathan Williams has four sacks.

ARKANSAS' EDGE: The Hogs can put points on the board; they've scored no fewer than 31 points in their last seven games — all but one against stiff SEC competition. They rank third in the nation in passing offense thanks to quarterback Ryan Mallett and six receivers with at least 27 catches. The top pass catchers include: D.J. Williams (49 receptions, four TDs) and Joe Adams (41 catches, five TDs).

THE QUARTERBACKS: Ohio State's Pryor is a dangerous man with a football in his hands. He's a passing threat (2,551 yards, 25 TDs) and a running threat (639 yards, four TDs). Pryor needs only 18 yards rushing to become the school's career rushing leader among quarterbacks.

Arkansas's Ryan Mallett completed 66.4 percent of his passes for 3,592 yards and 30 touchdowns. The redshirt junior (a transfer from Michigan) already holds the school record for touchdown passes.

NFL PROSPECTS: Ohio State — DE Cameron Heyward, CB Chimdi Chekwa, FS Jermale Hines, OLB Ross Homan. Arkansas – QB Ryan Mallett, OT DeMarcus Love, TE D.J. Williams.

BOWL HISTORY: Ohio State is 19-22 all-time in bowl games and broke a three-game bowl losing streak last year by winning the Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes haven’t been to the Sugar Bowl since 1998, when they defeated Texas A&M 24-14.

Arkansas is appearing in the Sugar Bowl for the first time since 1969, when it lost a 27-22 decision to Ole Miss. The Razorbacks are 12-22-3 all-time in bowl games. Arkansas beat East Carolina 20-17 in overtime to win the 2009 Liberty Bowl.

ETC.: Ohio State cornerback Corey Brown is out for the year with a knee injury. Arkansas cornerback Ramon Broadway dislocated an ankle against South Carolina, but could return for the Sugar Bowl. Wide receiver Greg Childs isn't expected back after having surgery to repair a patella tendon earlier this season.

BIG TEN VS. SEC

It’s been a rough bowl season for the Big Ten. Entering Tuesday’s OSU-Arkansas matchup, the conference is 2-5 straight up but 4-3 against the spread in its six bowl games this season.

The SEC is 3-0 SU and ATS versus Big Ten competition in this year’s bowls improving its mark against the Big Ten to 42-29 outright all-time in bowl games.

Ohio State has never beaten an SEC opponent in a bowl game, failing in each of its nine opportunities.

BETTING TRENDS

Arkansas is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games against winning teams and 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall.

Ohio State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight non-conference games but 0-5 ATS in its last five games against an SEC opponent.

The under is 7-0 in the Razorbacks’ last seven bowl games while the over is 4-1 the last five times Arkansas has been an underdog.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Announcement

NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Bowl Season (12/18 - 1/10)

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment