The Bum's BCS Best Bets Bowl GOY, News, Notes !

[StarDust Bum]

Troy slight favorites over Ohio in New Orleans Bowl


NEW ORLEANS BOWL
OHIO BOBCATS (8-4)
vs. TROY TROJANS (7-5)

Superdome – New Orleans, LA
Kickoff: Saturday, Dec. 18, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Troy -2, Total: 57.5

Troy’s spread offense takes on Frank Solich’s Ohio defense, but it’s Troy’s defense that could be the difference in this game. After allowing 121 points in a two-game stretch versus FIU and South Carolina, the Trojans have surrendered a meager 21 points in its last two wins. QB Corey Robinson leads Troy’s 12th-ranked passing offense (288 YPG), but he needs to make better decisions. Robinson has six games of two or more interceptions this year to give him a total of 15 picks this season. Troy will be making its third New Orleans Bowl appearance in the past five seasons. The Trojans crushed Rice 41-17 in 2006 and then lost in overtime, 30-27, to Southern Miss in 2008. The 2009 season also ended with an overtime bowl loss, as Troy was defeated by Central Michigan in the GMAC Bowl 44-41 in double overtime last year.

Ohio finished second in the MAC East Division to return to bowl action again this year after a tough 21-17 loss to Marshall last season. The Bobcats are 0-4 all-time in bowl games. Ohio went on quite a run this year, winning seven straight games before losing it final regular-season game at Kent State, 28-6. The Bobcats only had 183 yards of total offense and committed four turnovers against the Golden Flashes. QB Boo Jackson has 22 total TD this year (15 passing, seven rushing), but he has also tossed 16 INT, including picks in each of the last six contests. His favorite receiver is senior Terrence McCrae who has nine touchdowns in each of his past two seasons. Despite the turnover-laden offense, the Bobcats defense has held its last three opponents to 283 total YPG and forced six turnovers in that stretch.

Solich is familiar with Troy’s offensive scheme, having faced the Trojans three times from 2001-2003 when he was coaching at Nebraska, winning all three games. But Solich does not have the superior team in this matchup and his Ohio squad will be tested greatly by the Trojans. Troy led the Sun Belt Conference with 32.9 PPG and 441 total YPG, but Ohio’s defense only allowed 21.8 PPG and 333 total YPG this year. The Trojans have an advantage on defense with their pass rush ranked 11th in the nation with 2.9 sacks per game. They also average 7.0 tackles for loss, which is 17th in the country. Look for Troy to pressure Jackson into some poor throws and win the turnover battle, which will in turn win the game for the Trojans. The FoxSheets show a highly-rated coaching trend siding with Troy to win.

Larry Blakeney is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games as the coach of TROY. The average score was TROY 35.8, OPPONENT 19.5 - (Rating = 3*).

All five of these New Orleans Bowl games have gone Over the total, including last year’s 42-32 victory for Middle Tennessee State against Southern Miss. This FoxSheets trend also likes the Over in this year’s installment of the New Orleans Bowl:

TROY is 21-8 OVER (72.4%, +12.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1992. The average score was TROY 21.8, OPPONENT 27.8 - (Rating = 1*).

[StarDust Bum]

Humanitarian Bowl
December 16, 2010


If there is one thing that we have learned about college football is that records simply don’t mean a thing. This weekend’s Humanitarian Bowl between the Huskies and Fresno State (8-4 straight up, 5-6 against the spread) shapes up as another game that doesn’t matter how good you were in the regular season.

Northern Illinois (12-1 SU, 9-2-1 ATS) may have lost to the Redhawks in the MAC title game, but they are still the class of the league.

One of the main reasons for the Huskies’ success is the ability to move the ball on offense. They were amongst the nation’s leaders in scoring offense (37.9 PPG, 13th) and rushing (264.8 YPG, 7th).

While Chad Spann is the workhorse of the NIU attack, picking up 1,256 yards and 20 touchdowns this season, Chandler Harnish truly makes the offense work. Harnish, a third-year starter, has connected on 64.7 percent of his passes for 2,230 yards with 20 touchdowns and just five interceptions. Those are quite impressive numbers for the junior signal caller when you consider there isn’t a big-time receiver on the team.

The Huskies also have a sturdy defense that is keeping the opposition at back. They rank 27th nationally in total defense, giving up just 332.6 YPG. Northern Illinois is also 27th in the country when it comes to defending against the run, surrendering 130.5 rushing YPG.

One of the few things going against Northern Illinois in this game is the change going on with the powers that be with Jerry Kill heading to the Golden Gophers. “The upheaval within the coaching staff in the past two weeks, while not always a negative in bowl preparation, is rarely a positive, either,” says VegasInsider.com’s Bruce Marshall. “Jerry Kill's departure, the appointment of an interim coach (LB coach Tom Matukewicz) for this game, then the announcement on Monday that Wisconsin d.c. Dave Doeren will be taking over the program next season hardly creates an environment of stability. That is a lot of unnecessary distractions for NIU over the past two weeks.”

There are no problems with coaching stability with the mustachioed Pat Hill completing his 14th season with the Bulldogs.

Fresno State doesn’t have the most prolific offensive stats, coming in at No. 71 in total offense (371.3 YPG). Hell, they don’t even move the chains on third down all that effectively (35.0%, 99th). That doesn’t mean the Bulldogs don’t have talent on that side of the ball.

Ryan Coburn has been a steadying influence on the Bulldogs’ attack under center. All the senior signal caller has done is connecting on 61.8 percent of his passes for 2.529 yards and 21 scores to nine picks. Coburn is also riding high after a 304 yard, three touchdown performance in his final home game of his career in a 25-23 win over Illinois.

The running game for Fresno State lies squarely on the shoulders of Robbie Rouse. The sophomore running back is averaging 109.7 yards per game on the ground, which is 13th in the country. But there is some worry about his ability in this game since he’s been hampered by rib and hand injuries that kept him out of the regular season finale against the Fighting Illini.

The ‘Dogs had a decent effort against the run this season, giving up just 154.8 YPG that puts them at No. 65 amongst FBS schools. However, that number isn’t the most accurate as they’ve sacked opposing QBs 37 times in 2010 (6th nationally). That could spell trouble for Harnish, who got sacked three times by the Redhawks in the MAC title game.

When you look at the overall record discrepancy, you’d expect NIU to be favored in the game. And you would be right as the Huskies are listed as one-point favorites with a total of 59. Although, you’re going to find this game going from a pick ‘em to Fresno State -1 if you do a little shopping.

So why is there such flip-flopping on the line? Perhaps it has something to do with the quality of opponents these teams faced in 2010.

Fresno State has had to deal with five games this year against ranked or BCS schools. The Bulldogs went 2-3 SU, but 3-2 ATS in those tests. Northern Illinois has not taken on a ranked club all season long. And the Huskies played against three BCS programs, which they sport a 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS.

The Bulldogs have not had good luck in bowl games recently, going 0-2 SU and ATS in the last two. That includes an embarrassing 35-28 OT loss to Wyoming as 10-point favorites in last season’s New Mexico Bowl. Since 2000, Fresno State is 4-5 SU and ATS in bowl games with the ‘over’ going 7-2.

I’d like to say something good about the Huskies’ chances here, but MAC teams don’t perform in the bowl games. How bad are they? Teams from the Mid-American Conference are 1-12 SU and 1-10-2 ATS over the last few postseasons. The only win coming from Central Michigan over Troy in last year’s GMAC Bowl.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
12/18/10 3-3-0 50.00% -150 Detail
12/11/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/04/10 14-17-1 45.16% -2350 Detail
12/03/10 0-4-0 0.00% -2200 Detail
12/02/10 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
Totals 20-25-1 44.44% -3750

Tuesday, December 21Game Score Status Pick Amount

Louisville - 8:00 PM ET Southern Mississippi +2.5 500
Southern Mississippi - Over 59.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Louisville favored by 3 over So. Miss


BEEF O’BRADY’S BOWL
LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (6-6)
vs. SOUTHERN MISS GOLDEN EAGLES (8-4)

Tropicana Field – St. Petersburg, FL
Kickoff: Tuesday, Dec. 21, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Louisville -3, Total: 57

Familiar foes will square off for the 29th time Tuesday when they meet in St. Petersburg for the Beef O’Brady’s Bowl. The participants in this game have plenty of past history, as they met every season from 1978 to 1991 and were both in Conference USA from 1996 to 2004. Southern Miss holds a 18-9-1 series advantage, but Louisville has four straight SU wins and five consecutive ATS victories in the series. The Cardinals beat the Golden Eagles 25-23 in a back-and-forth affair last year. Southern Miss is making its ninth straight postseason appearance while Louisville is making its first postseason appearance since the 2007 Orange Bowl.

Some extra incentive for USM to come away victorious is a dedication to three members of its defense –- DT Deddrick Jones and LBs Tim Green and Martez Smith -- who were shot outside a nightclub on Nov. 14. Smith, who started four games this season, is paralyzed from the waist down.

USM quarterback Austin Davis has had a brilliant second half of the season, averaging 282 passing YPG with 14 TD and 3 INT in his past six games. This is quite an improvement from 201 passing YPG, 4 TD and 3 INT in his first six games this year. Davis leads the nation’s 15th-ranked offense (458 YPG, 37.6 PPG) with help from WRs Kelvin Bolden (41 rec, 667 yds, 6 TD) and Johdrick Morris (46 rec, 663 yds, 4 TD). Freshman RB Kendrick Hardy has also been on a roll lately with 676 rushing yards and six touchdowns in his past six games. Desmond Johnson has also had a strong sophomore year with 509 yards on the ground and eight total TD.

The USM offense will not have a walk in the park against Louisville’s 12th-ranked defense (305 YPG), which has pitched two shutouts this year against Memphis and Fiesta Bowl participant Connecticut. The Cardinals’ top two QBs are both hurting as Adam Froman (leg) has missed four straight games and Justin Burke hurt his back in the last game against Rutgers. Both QBs could still see some game action, but sophomore Will Stein (9-for-14, 72 yds, TD vs. Rutgers) is expected to start against Southern Miss. RB Bilal Powell is the main focus of the offense with 1,330 rushing yards and 13 total touchdowns this season. Powell racked up 151 total yards (123 rushing, 28 receiving) and scored three times against Rutgers.

This is the third installment of the bowl game hosted at Tropicana Field, and bowl officials are hoping for a much closer affair than the first two chapters. South Florida crushed Memphis 41-14 in 2008 and Rutgers blew out UCF 45-24 last year.

The FoxSheets predict Louisville will win by a touchdown and that the final score will go Under the Total:

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (SOUTHERN MISS) - after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game against opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game. (49-19 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.1%, +28.1 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Under - Any team against the total (SOUTHERN MISS) - excellent offensive team (>=440 YPG) against an average offensive team (330 to 390 YPG), after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games. (57-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.1%, +26.2 units. Rating = 2*).

[The Boomaster]

gl bum. thanks for everything

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday, December 22Game Score Status Pick Amount

Utah - 8:00 PM ET Boise State -15.5 500
Boise State - Under 57.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Boise State favored by 17 over Utah


LAS VEGAS BOWL
UTAH UTES (10-2)
vs. BOISE STATE BRONCOS (11-1)

Sam Boyd Stadium – Las Vegas, NV
Kickoff: Wednesday, Dec. 22, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Boise State -17, Total: 59.5

Utah’s quest for a 10th straight bowl win will not be easy when they take on Boise State Wednesday in the Las Vegas Bowl. Boise State QB, and Heisman Finalist, Kellen Moore has thrown for 3,506 yards with 33 TD and 5 INT this year in leading the Broncos’ No. 2 scoring offense in the nation, (46.7 PPG trailing only Oregon). Utah’s top QB, Jordan Wynn, will not play due to shoulder surgery. Wynn will be replaced by Terrance Cain, who has a career record of 9-1 as Utah’s starter.

Utah is one of three teams in FBS history to win nine straight bowls. Florida (11 straight, 1985-96) and USC (9 in a row, 1923-45) are the other two.

Utah started the season 6-0-1 ATS but has dropped four of five ATS. Cain has played well in the three games in which he has attempted 10 or more passes. In these contests, Cain is 42-of-54 (78%) for 561 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions. However, Cain’s last outing was a terrible one. He completed just 2-of-7 passes for eight yards and two interceptions in a 17-16 win over BYU. Cain could be running for his life, as the Broncos lead the nation with 3.8 sacks per game and are second in tackles for losses (8.3 per game). To take the pressure off Cain, the RB duo of Eddie Wide and Matt Asiata will try to power the 56th-ranked running game. Wide leads the Utes with 683 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, but has no 100-yard rushing games. Asiata only has one 100-yard performance and is coming off a rough outing against BYU where he only gained 23 yards on eight carries.

Boise State is 6-4 SU (7-3 ATS) in 10 all-time FBS bowl games. The Broncos have a record of 3-3 against ranked teams in bowl games, beating TCU twice (2003 Fort Worth, 2010 Fiesta) and winning 43-42 in overtime versus No. 7 Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.

This contest marks the 12th straight game where Boise State is favored by at least 14 points, and the Broncos have responded with a 7-4 ATS mark. Three of their ATS losses were actually SU wins by 13, 29 and 36 points. Everybody knows about the Broncos potent offense, ranked fourth in yardage (520 YPG), but their defense has been just as good, ranking fourth in the nation in both scoring (13.6 PPG) and yardage (259 YPG). Moore has thrown at least two touchdowns in every game this season. WRs Titus Young (1,151 receiving yards) and Austin Pettis (804 receiving yards) both have caught nine touchdown passes. The rushing attack (200 YPG, 24th in nation) is led by junior Doug Martin (1,113 rushing yards) and senior Jeremy Avery (440 rushing yards) who each have 11 rushing TD this year.

Boise State holds a 4-2 advantage in the series over Utah, including a 36-3 win in their last meeting on Sept. 30, 2006. The FoxSheets give three more reasons to pick Boise State to win and cover the big spread:

Chris Petersen is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of BOISE ST. The average score was BOISE ST 41.3, OPPONENT 11.5 - (Rating = 4*).

Play Against - Any team (UTAH) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against an excellent defense (<=280 YPG) after 7+ games. (48-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.7%, +28.2 units. Rating = 3*).

BOISE ST is 61-22 ATS (73.5%, +36.8 Units) in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score was BOISE ST 43.8, OPPONENT 19.6 - (Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets predict that the final score will go Under the Total:

Play Under - Any team against the total (UTAH, BOISE STATE) - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier division I-A conferences.(26-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Las Vegas Bowl
December 21, 2010


The bowl season is chugging right along and the public has no doubt enjoyed how everything at the moment. Favorites have cashed in for a healthy 3-0 record, both straight up and against the spread. What’s more surprising is how none of the games were the least bit close. Unless you consider Troy’s 48-21 triumph over Ohio in the New Orleans Bowl a close battle.

Now those gamblers that cashed on the “chalk” will get to test that betting strategy in grand style on Tuesday night when Boise State (11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS) faces Utah (10-2 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) at the Las Vegas Bowl from Sam Boyd Stadium.

Most sportsbooks have listed the Broncos as 17-point favorites with a total of 61. And the public has jumped all over them with 78% of the money at Sportsbook.com taking BSU to cover the number. Yet the Utes are seeing 57% of the action on the money line for a plus-485 (risk $100 to win $485) payout.

It might seem a bit surprising to see Boise State not get all of the play since they are most everyone’s favorite non-BCS club. But this isn’t just any non-BCS team; this is a team that was a favorite of many experts to win the national championship.

The Broncos had the statistical pedigree to qualify for a seat in the big bowl games. They are the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the country (46.7 points per game), 4th in total offense (519.5 yards per game) and also have the best 4th-best defense in the FBS (259.3 YPG).

They have an offense where Kellen Moore stands behind Auburn’s Cam Newton as the country’s most efficient passer (185.04 rating, 33 TD, 5 INT). Moore also has two NFL-ready receivers to lock in on as well in Titus Young (1,151 receiving yards, 9 TD) and Austin Pettis (804 receiving yards, 9 TD). Plus, Boise State has the best pass rush in the nation with 45 sacks and 8.3 tackles for loss per game.

As great as the numbers are for Chris Petersen’s crew, all most people can think about is the 34-31 overtime loss they had at Nevada in the penultimate game of the regular season. And as VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Marc Lawrence explains, “Imagine hitting the first five numbers and missing the Powerball by one. Welcome to Boise’s World. The Broncos went from a BCS bowl and a $17 million payout to the Las Vegas Bowl and a $1 million payday.”

While the cash is hard to forget about, the lack of rush defense for Boise State is what people should be even more concerned about when thinking of betting. The Broncos are giving up just 103.5 YPG on the ground this year, which ranks them sixth in the country. However, they’ve given up 269 rushing yards to the Wolf Pack and then Utah State ran for 250 more yards in the regular season finale.

Utah knows a thing or two about falling from high perches this season.

The Utes found themselves ranked as high as sixth in the AP Poll this year after opening the season with eight straight wins. Even better for gamblers, they covered the number in six of those spots. That all changed on Nov. 6 when they got rolled 47-7 by the Horned Frogs on home soil. And Utah found itself flounder in a 28-3 loss at Notre Dame the following week. Now, Kyle Whittingham’s program comes into this game at No. 20 in the AP Poll.

There is reason for concern with Utah this week as Jordan Wynn will not be under center. All he’s done this year is complete 62 percent of his throws for 2,334 yards and 17 touchdowns. But a shoulder injury will lay up Utah’s star sophomore quarterback. It’s a good thing that the Utes have a more than capable backup signal caller in Terrance Cain. The senior QB was the starter last season for Whittingham, but played in just eight games in 2010. He’s connected on 71 percent of his passes for 613 yards. However, Cain has shown himself to be a liability in Utah’s 17-16 win at home over Brigham Young with two picks that needed Wynn to pull off the rally.

Given the issues that Cain has had throwing the ball, we’re going to see Utah take to the ground at every opportunity. Matt Asiata (666 rushing yards, 8 TD) and Eddie Wide (660 yards, 11 TD) provide a comparable rushing duo. Plus, Cain is one of the more mobile QBs you’ll find, so don’t expect him to just lie down in the moment of trouble.

Defensively, Utah is a competent unit as it has given up just 319.7 YPG in 2010 to rank 20th nationally. Yet the Utes’ secondary is a bit of a liability this season. They’ve surrendered 215.5 YPG through the air with 18 touchdowns. Compare that to the eight scores Utah has allowed on the ground to opponents. That can prove problematic with Boise State putting up 319.4 passing YPG.

While gamblers will be hard up to bet on the Broncos, they must remember that they are just 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in their bowl games with Petersen running the show. The two wins coming against the Sooners and Horned Frogs in the Fiesta Bowl. To be fair, Boise State’s losses came against Chris Johnson and East Carolina in the Hawaii Bowl and to TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl by a combined total of four points.

Utah has been one of the most automatic wagers for bettors to make in the bowl season. Kyle Whittingham has guided the Utes to a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS mark in postseason setups.

The head-to-head meetings have been a bit one-sided as Boise State owns a 3-0 SU and ATS run against the Utes. The most recent game a 36-3 win for the Broncos as five-point road pups in 2006.

Favorites that make it to the Las Vegas Bowl tend to walk away with the hardware recently, evidenced by a 3-1 SU record over the last four years. However, the underdog is 2-2 ATS in that time, covering in two of the last three contests. The ‘under’ is 3-1 in that stretch as well.

You can catch this game on Wednesday at 8:00 p.m. EST on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

College Football Betting: Boise State vs. Utah


The key question in Wednesday’s Las Vegas Bowl pitting 10-2 Utah and 11-1 Boise State is will the Broncos have the motivation to cover a huge number with no national title game incentive?

Boise State is a 17-point favorite. The ‘over/under’ is 60. Kickoff is 5 p.m. PT at Sam Boyd Stadium with ESPN televising.

The Broncos ranked second in the FBS averaging 46.7 points a game, while rating fourth nationally in scoring defense giving up 13.6 points a game and in total defense holding foes to 259.3 yards. The Broncos have covered in seven of their past nine bowl games.

Boise State, however, had its sight set on finishing unbeaten and playing in the national title game on Jan. 10 rather than participating in the fifth bowl game on the schedule.



Those hopes were shattered when the Broncos blew a 24-7 halftime lead and lost 34-31 in overtime to Nevada as 14-point road favorites on Nov. 26. The combined 65 points fell ‘under’ the 68-point total.

Boise State rebounded to bury Utah State, 50-14, in its last game on Dec. 4 although failed to cover as 38 ½-point home ‘chalk.’ The combined 64 points pushed on the 64-point total.

As far as minor bowls go, this is an excellent matchup, one Las Vegas Bowl officials are thrilled to have.

Utah has demonstrated a lot of postseason pride winning nine consecutive bowl games. The Utes are 7-1 ATS in their last eight bowl games. Their bowl streak began in the Las Vegas Bowl with victories in 1999 and 2001.

Motivation, not talent, is the unknown handicapping factor for 10th-ranked Boise State in this matchup. Broncos quarterback Kellen Moore threw for 3,506 yards, has a 71 percent completion rate and a 33-to-five touchdown-to-interception ratio. The junior finished fourth for the Heisman Trophy.

The Broncos are 37-2 with Moore under center. Moore’s favorite receivers are Titus Young, who has 1,151 receiving yards and nine touchdowns, and Austin Pettis, who has 804 yards receiving and nine scores.

Boise State is 25-11-1 ATS in its last 37 games.

Utah opened 8-0, reaching as high as No. 6 in The Associated Press Top 25 poll. The Utes, though, suffered back-to-back losses to TCU and Notre Dame and are now ranked 20th.

The Utes nipped BYU, 17-16, in their last game on Nov. 27 as 7 ½-point home favorites. The combined 33 points went ‘under’ the 51 ½-point total. Utah blocked a late field goal attempt to hold off the Cougars.

Utah has a balanced attack featuring running backs Eddie Wide (706 yards rushing and 11 touchdowns) and Matt Asiata (680 yards rushing and eight touchdowns). Sophomore Jordan Wynn passed for 2,334 yards with 17 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

Wynn, though, has an injured shoulder and won’t play against Boise State. The Utes have a reliable backup in senior Terrance Cain, who is 9-1 as a starter. The mobile Cain has the legs to counter a Broncos pass rush that has recorded 45 sacks. Cain will be backed up by true freshman Griff Robles.

The teams last met in 2006 with Boise State winning 36-3. This is the last game for Utah as a Mountain West Conference team. The Utes will play in the Pac-10 next season. Boise State also is leaving its conference. The Broncos are switching from the Western Athletic Conference to the Mountain West Conference beginning next season.

The Utes are 13-3-1 to the ‘over’ in their last 17 non-conference matchups. The ‘over’ has cashed in Boise State’s last four non-conference matchups.

The weather forecast calls for a 60 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the 40s and eight mph winds.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
12/22/10 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
12/21/10 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
12/18/10 3-3-0 50.00% -150 Detail

Thursday, December 23Game Score Status Pick Amount

Navy - 8:00 PM ET Navy +3 500
San Diego State - Under 58.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Navy goes for 10th win of season vs. SDSU


POINSETTIA BOWL
NAVY MIDSHIPMEN (9-3)
vs. SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS (8-4)

Qualcomm Stadium – San Diego, CA
Kickoff: Thursday, Dec. 23, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: San Diego State -6, Total: 60

Two teams playing in front of local fans meet for the Poinsettia Bowl. Although San Diego State will be playing in its hometown, there is a huge naval base in the city that will give boisterous support for Navy. The Midshipmen have had a huge season, going 9-3 with all three defeats coming by eight points or less. San Diego State has also had a banner year, winning eight games for the first time since 1996.

Navy will be playing in its eighth consecutive bowl (3-4 SU), including its third Poinsettia Bowl, where the Middies are 1-1. Navy is led by its do-it-all QB Ricky Dobbs who enters this game just 140 rushing yards shy of his second straight 1,000 passing yard/1,000 rushing yard season. Dobbs has 67 total TD in 32 career games. Navy also has two great running backs in Alexander Teich (825 yds, 5 TD) and Gee Gee Greene (459 yds, 5 TD) who have helped give Navy the fifth-ranked rushing offense in the nation (289 YPG).

This will be San Diego State’s first bowl game since 1998. The Aztecs have not won a bowl game since the 1969 Pasadena Bowl, losing their past three bowls since that lone victory. SDSU is 11th in the nation in passing offense (297 YPG) with two receivers ranked in the nation’s top 10 in yardage. Vincent Brown is seventh with 99 receiving YPG and DeMarco Sampson is ninth with 98 receiving YPG. Aztecs QB Ryan Lindley has 26 TD and 14 INT this season.

The Aztecs are 2-0 all-time against Navy. The teams last met in the 1997 season opener, when SDSU beat the Midshipmen, 45-31, in San Diego. The Aztecs also came away victorious in their first meeting in 1994, posting an easy 56-14 win over the Middies.

The Mountain West has a four-game winning streak in this Poinsettia Bowl series. The last three games have been decided by a combined 14 points, with the underdog winning ATS in all three. The FoxSheets give three more highly-rated reasons to pick underdog Navy to win and cover the big spread:

NAVY is 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) against Mountain West conference opponents since 1992. The average score was NAVY 23.9, OPPONENT 24.2 - (Rating = 4*).

NAVY is 44-16 ATS (73.3%, +26.4 Units) as a road underdog since 1992. The average score was NAVY 22.5, OPPONENT 30.5 - (Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Any team (SAN DIEGO ST) - dominant team (outgain opp. by 1.2+ YPP) against a good team (outgain opp. by 0.6 to 1.2 YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games. (43-19 over the last 10 seasons.) (69.4%, +22.1 units. Rating = 2*).

The FoxSheets also give a four-star reason why the game will go Over the Total:

Play Over - Any team against the total (SAN DIEGO ST) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (330 to 390 YPG), after gaining 525 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. (25-3 over the last 10 seasons.) (89.3%, +21.7 units. Rating = 4*).

[StarDust Bum]

NCAA Bowl Betting: Navy vs San Diego State


Navy faces several situational disadvantages when it meets San Diego State Thursday night at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego in the Poinsettia Bowl.

The Midshipmen should have plenty of their fans on board since San Diego has the largest naval base on the West Coast. But Qualcomm Stadium is home to the Aztecs, who went 5-1 there this year.

Navy also was able to schedule only eight practices since it beat Army, 31-17, on Dec. 11 while San Diego State was able to hold 13 bowl practices following its last game on Nov. 27.

The Aztecs currently are 3 ½-point favorites with the ‘over/under’ at 60 ½. Kickoff is at 5 p.m. PT with ESPN televising.

Navy has covered in five of is last six bowl games. The Midshipmen also are 6-0 ATS the past six times they’ve been underdogs.

A key question is do the Midshipmen have the athletes to defend San Diego’s high-powered passing attack?

The Midshipmen haven’t surrendered a passing touchdown of more than 45 yards in going 9-3. The Aztecs, 8-4, have one of the best wide receiving tandems in the country with DeMarco Sampson and Vincent Brown.

Sampson caught 65 passes for 1,175 yards and eight touchdowns. Brown had 61 receptions for 1,187 yards and nine scores. Only Hawaii had two wide receivers that combined for more receiving yards per game.

Ryan Lindley threw for 3,554 passing yards, tops in the Mountain West Conference. His 28 touchdowns tied TCU’s Andy Dalton for most in the league.

Navy won’t just be able to key on San Diego’s State aerial attack, however. The Aztecs’ Ronnie Hillman set a Mountain West freshman record with 1,304 yards rushing, running for at least 150 yards five times.

Navy isn’t nearly as balanced as San Diego State. The Midshipmen run an option offense ranking fifth in rushing and 118th in passing. Senior quarterback Ricky Dobbs accounted for 2,240 yards and 25 touchdowns with 13 coming on the ground.

The Midshipmen, one of three independents along with Army and Notre Dame, averaged 288.9 yards on the ground with running backs Alexander Teich rushing for 825 yards and Gee Gee Greene running for 459 yards. The two backs combined for 10 touchdowns.

San Diego State gave up the third-fewest rushing yards in the Mountain West ranking 46th overall allowing 135 yards per game. The Aztecs held four teams to fewer than 90 yards on the ground. Linebacker Miles Burris leads the Aztecs in tackles with 74 and sacks with 9 ½.

This was San Diego State’s first winning year since 1998. That year also marked the Aztecs’ last bowl appearance. The Aztecs lost their four games this season by a combined 15 points, including 40-35 to third-ranked TCU as 27 ½-point road ‘dogs.

San Diego State also had a narrow loss to 20th-ranked Utah, 38-34, as 2 ½-point home ‘dogs. The Aztecs closed their regular season by destroying UNLV, 48-14, covering as 24-point home favorites.

Navy concluded its regular season with a 31-17 win against arch-rival Army, covering as 7 ½-point favorites at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. The combined 48 points dipped ‘under’ the 52 ½-point total. It’s just the second time in the last six games Navy has gone ‘under’ the total. The ‘over’ has cashed in five of Navy’s past six bowl matchups.

The Midshipmen are averaging 41 points in their last six games. Navy is 7-0 ATS the past seven times it has met an opponent with a winning mark.

The weather forecast is for clear skies with temperatures in the 50s and five mph winds.

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
12/23/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/22/10 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
12/21/10 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
12/18/10 3-3-0 50.00% -150 Detail


Friday, December 24Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tulsa - 8:00 PM ET Hawaii -9.5 500
Hawaii - Under 73.5 500

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Over/Under set at 73.5 for explosive Hawaii Bowl


HAWAII BOWL
TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE (9-3)
vs. HAWAII WARRIORS (10-3)

Aloha Stadium – Honolulu, HI
Kickoff: Friday, Dec. 24, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Hawaii -10, Total: 73.5

Two of the nation’s highest-scoring teams meet for a Christmas Eve date in the Hawaii Bowl. Both schools enter the game on hot streaks, as Hawaii has won nine of its past 10 games and Tulsa brings a six-game winning streak to the islands. Both teams have also been very profitable for bettors. The Warriors are 11-2 ATS this season, including a perfect 7-0 home record ATS. The Golden Hurricane are 8-4 ATS, including a 4-2 mark on the road.

The Warriors lead the nation with 388 passing YPG. Junior QB Bryant Moniz has thrown for 4,629 yards, 36 TD and 11 INT this season. Moniz has nine games of at least 3 TD passes this year. Hawaii has two top-5 receivers in the nation as Greg Salas ranks second in receiving yards (129 YPG) and Kealoha Pilares comes in fifth with 109 YPG.

Tulsa also knows how to put up points, placing 10th in the nation with 39.7 PPG and fifth in the country with 504 total YPG. G.J. Kinne had six TD (four passing, two rushing) in the 56-50 regular-season finale over Southern Mississippi. Kinne has nine games with 2+ TD passes with 28 TD and 10 INT on the year.

On the defensive side of the ball, Hawaii has a decided edge. The Warriors rank 38th in the nation in yards allowed (344 YPG) and 42nd in scoring (22.7 PPG), while Tulsa ranks 107th (443 YPG) and 83rd in scoring (29.9 PPG).

The Warriors will be making their sixth Hawaii Bowl appearance, going 3-2 SU in the previous five, and will try to make a better showing than their last appearance in 2008 when Notre Dame stomped the Warriors 49-21. Hawaii did win its previous three Hawaii Bowl games (2003, 2004, 2006) and is 5-4 all-time in bowl games. Tulsa is making its fifth bowl appearance in six years. The Hurricane won back-to-back GMAC Bowl games in 2007 and 2008. Overall, Tulsa is 7-9 in its 16-game bowl history.

Since 1992, all seven meetings between these schools have been decided by double-digits, including Hawaii’s 44-16 thumping of Tulsa when they last met in 2004. The FoxSheets give three more highly-rated reasons to pick Hawaii to win and cover the big spread:

Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (HAWAII) - after a win by 35 or more points against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. (26-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 3*).

Play On - Home favorites (HAWAII) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (>=34 PPG). (62-26 since 1992.) (70.5%, +33.4 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - A road team (TULSA) - after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half. (81-39 since 1992.) (67.5%, +38.1 units. Rating = 3*).

This has been a very high-scoring bowl series, with the winning team having surpassed the 35-point mark all but once since ’95 while averaging 44.9 PPG. The OVER is 12-3 in that span. However, the FoxSheets give two reasons to expect the game to finish Under its hefty Total:

Play Under - Any team against the total (HAWAII, TULSA) - in a bowl game, in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier division I-A conferences.(44-18 since 1992.) (71%, +24.2 units. Rating = 2*).

TULSA is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TULSA 27.1, OPPONENT 21.6 - (Rating = 3*).

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Hawaii Bowl
December 24, 2010


Need a distraction at a chaotic family gathering on Christmas Eve? You and your cousins love to do the bets-and-ballgames thing during the holidays?

Whatever the case, you’re in luck Friday night at 8:00 p.m. Eastern when ESPN brings you live coverage of the Hawaii Bowl, pitting Tulsa from out of Conference USA against Hawaii from the WAC.

Both of these schools are bowling again after being left out of the postseason fun last year. Tulsa had been to four straight bowl games before going 5-7 last year, while Hawaii had been to the postseason eight straight years prior to a 6-7 campaign in 2009.

As of Thursday afternoon, most books were listing the Warriors as 10 ½-point favorites with the total in the 73-74 range. Bettors can take the Golden Hurricane to win outright for a plus-300 payout (risk $100 to win $300).

When the numbers initially came out earlier this month, Sportsbook.com opened Hawaii (10-3 straight up, 11-2 against the spread) as a 12 ½-point favorite with a total of 71 ½.

“We had a good bit of sharp money come in on Tulsa as the underdog, prompting us to adjust the number to 10 ½,” Sportsbook.com Senior Oddsmaker Mike Perry told VegasInsider.com on Wednesday. “As for the total, 75 percent of our action has been on the ‘over’ and we’re now at 73.”

Tulsa (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) finished the regular season with six straight wins, including a 56-50 win over So. Miss as a three-point home favorite. Junior quarterback G.J. Kinne accounted for six touchdowns, rushing for two and throwing for four. The transfer from Texas completed 23-of-37 passes for 406 yards and also rushed for 48 yards.

Damaris Johnson, one of the nation’s most versatile players on offense and in the return game, produced 221 all-purpose yards and had a 46-yard rushing touchdown. Also, senior WR Trae Johnson hauled in four receptions for 113 yards.

Todd Graham’s team has cashed tickets at an 8-1 ATS clip in its last nine games. When Tulsa has been listed as an underdog this year, it has posted a 2-2 SU record and a 3-1 ATS mark. The Golden Hurricane won outright at Notre Dame (28-27 as a 9 ½-point ‘dog) and at Houston (28-25 as a 2 ½-point puppy).

Hawaii has been the nation’s must lucrative team to support all year. The only non-covers came in losses at Colorado and at Boise State. In the loss in Boulder, the Warriors led 10-0 at intermission as 13-point underdogs, only to end up losing by a 31-13 count.

Greg McMackin’s squad has won three in a row both SU and ATS, including a 59-21 win over UNLV as a 32-point home ‘chalk.’ Junior QB Bryant Moniz connected on 29-of-43 passes for 380 yards and four touchdowns. Moniz also rushed for a pair of touchdowns.

Senior RB Alex Green rushed for 136 yards and one touchdown on just 15 carries. Senior WR Kealoha Pilares had nine receptions for 157 yards and one TD.

For the season, Moniz has put up blistering numbers. He has completed 66.3 percent of his passes for 4,629 yards with a 36/11 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Senior WR Greg Salas has been his favorite target, hauling in 106 catches for 1,675 yards and 12 TDs. Pilares has 88 receptions for 1,306 yards and 15 TDs.

During the June Jones’ Era, Hawaii rarely ran the ball. These days, the Warriors’ MO is still to attack through the air, but they have definitely established more balance. In fact, Green has rushed for 1,168 yards and 17 TDs. He’s averaging an eye-popping 8.8 yards per carry.

Kinne has 3,307 passing yards and a 28/10 TD-INT ratio. He has Tulsa ranked fifth in the nation in total yards and 10th in scoring offense.

His favorite target is the aforementioned Johnson, who has blazing speed despite his diminutive size. Johnson has 53 catches for 771 yards and three touchdowns. Also, he has rushed for 462 yards and six TDs, averaging 9.2 YPC.

Hawaii has thrived in double-digit ‘chalk’ situations this year, compiling a remarkable 5-0 spread record.

Totals have been an overall wash (6-6-1) for Hawaii, which saw a run of five consecutive ‘unders’ before the ‘over’ hit in each of its last two regular-season contests.

Meanwhile, Tulsa has watched the ‘under’ go 7-5 overall.