Tweet
gl sweat. Saw the line move in the NCST game, but I trust O'Brian too much for a let down. Too bad he's not playing.
-
-
Thanks guys.
KB - I looked at your picks and I love your Texas pick. Are you thinking of playing the ML too? I was thinking of putting 5 units on the spread, 3 units on the 1H, and 2 units on the ML. If we can have Texas up at half, we can middle the whole thing. What is your thoughts on that? I put a brief comment on your other games.
4* Texass Shorthorns +10 -115
4* Arizona Wildcats -23 - I do like this play. The cougs have been covering like crazy over the last 2 weeks! Cougs covered everything against Oregon last week, Game, 1Q, 1H, 2H. Also, with UCLA, they covered everything.
2* Florida Gators -8 - EHH...no play on this
2* California Golden Bears +3 -125 - Leaning on the other side of this one
1* Iowa Hawkeyes -3.5 - Completely in utter shock over this game. I'm getting mixed results.
1* Oklahoma State Cowgirls +3 -125 - To be honest, TTech will be one of my favorite games today. Why are you liking Oklahoma State here?Comment
-
I dont understand all the bashing...this guy takes time to write up all his plays...if you dont like it, dont look or coment.....good lkuck no sweat!
Comment
-
-
Hey guys, it's still very early but I'm liking how our morning games are looking so far. Anyway, here are the picks through up until the 6:00 pm (Eastern games).
Just a word of advice. There are A LOT of big games this afternoon. I really urge everyone to play these games small, as I expect a lot of variance today in the afternoon games. Best of luck. Looks like its a Texas swing this afternoon
Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Buffalo +14.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 50.5
Final Score Prediction: Northern Illinois 24 - Buffalo 17
Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech
No Sweat Rating: 5 - Texas Tech -3
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 69
Final Score Prediction: Texas Tech 38 - Oklahoma State 21
This is my favorite play on the board today. Oklahoma State has played on national television and has come out flat, yet come back in both 2nd half games to cover the original spread. Many people feel like Oklahoma State is a great team, sitting at a perfect (5-0, 1-0). On the other hand, Texas Tech had trouble scoring on Texas's defense (and look what UCLA did to them). All this is setting up a huge play on Texas Tech. When the line open up, it was Oklahoma State -1. Now the line is -3 Texas Tech, with roughly 70 percent of the wagers on Oklahoma State. Hmm...why would the line move 4 points in the wrong way? Now, like I've stated before, REVERSE LINE MOVEMENT does not always mean a sure play. The thing here is that Oklahoma State is quite unproven, especially on the road. I'm expecting a TTech blowout. Texas Tech impressed me last week against Baylor (which I hit quite hard) and I think they will continue to click today against a undisciplined Oklahoma State team. The magic run ends of OSU here. Take Texas Tech for 5 units today.
Houston vs. Rice
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Rice +9.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 63.5
Final Score Prediction: Houston 28 - Rice 21
Middle Tennessee State vs. GA Tech
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Middle Tennessee State +18.5
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Under 58.5
Final Score Prediction: Georgia Tech 31 - Middle Tennessee State 14
California vs. USC
No Sweat Rating: 2 - USC -2.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Over 54
Final Score Prediction: USC 31 - Cal 24
Texas vs. Nebraska
No Sweat Rating: 3 - Texas +10
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Over 46.5
Final Score Prediction: Texas 28 - Nebraska 24
Ok, I'll be honest on this game. The computers are liking Texas in this game, but I'm LOVING Texas here. The problem is, I'm usually not as smart as the computers, so I will only make Texas a Rating of 3. I really wanted to push this at a Rating of 5, but the computers are telling me differently. Nonetheless, we do have a huge edge on this game. Here's why. The line opened up at Nebraska +9 1/2 and was firm all week. On Thursday, I saw a few books move the line to 10, but it quickly jumped back down to 9 1/2. To be honest, that 1/2 point in my opinion does not mean much. I am not one to sweat over half points, even at big numbers like 7 or 10. Usually, it doesn't effect the outcome in the long run. Nonetheless, I understand how people would feel safer at 10, and I'm personally taking them at 10 because the line I have right now at my book is 10. Anyway, Nebraska has roughly 70 percent of the money on them regarding both spread and moneyline. That is shocking for me. I could see how people would be pounding Nebraska. Look, Nebraska destroyed Kansas State last week on national tv. Kansas State destroyed Kansas on national TV. Kansas State beat UCLA earlier in the season. UCLA destroyed Texas. Therefore, Nebraska destroys Texas. If it was that easy guys, there wouldn't be Las Vegas. Anyway, getting Texas is a great value in this situation. I'm taking Texas +10 and the Texas ML. Possibly putting a little on the Texas 1H. Then hedging in the middle.
Iowa vs. Michigan
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Michigan +3.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 54
Final Score Prediction: Iowa 21 - Michigan 20
Wake Forest vs. VA Tech
No Sweat Rating: 2 - VA Tech -22.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 56
Final Score Prediction: VA Tech 35 - Wake Forest 10
Arkansas vs. Auburn
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Arkansas +3.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 60.5
Final Score Prediction: Arkansas 24 - Auburn 21
SMU vs. Navy
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Navy -1.5
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Over 52
Final Score Prediction: Navy 31 - SMU 24
Idaho vs. Louisiana Tech
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Louisiana Tech +1.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Over 53.5
Final Score Prediction: Lousiana Tech 38 - Idaho 35
UTEP vs. UAB
No Sweat Rating: 1 - UAB -2.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 60
Final Score Prediction: UAB 30 - UTEP 20
BYU vs. TCU
No Sweat Rating: 2 - BYU +29.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 50
Final Score Prediction: TCU 21 - BYU 17
More to come later in the afternoon.Comment
-
Hey guys,
Just wanted to let you know I took the 2nd half Michigan State -3 just to middle the original spread. It's smart to do if you took the following:
Illinois +4 (1H)
Illinois +7 (Game)
Illinois ML
Take Michigan State (2nd half -3) for 1 unit to cover yourself.Comment
-
Hey guys,
Just wanted to let you know that I am taking NC State -6 (2nd half) to cover our ML bet. I advise you do the same. We can't lose then and can still middle even if we lose the ML bet.Comment
-
Guys, I found GREAT value in a 2nd half bet. Take the Over 25 in the Miami/Duke game. I would say this is a solid 3 unit play.Comment
-
Bol!!!! Like the info and input/opinions!Comment
-
Dude, the one I really like is Nebraska to lay an ass whoopin' on those Shorthorns...but you're right. Shouldn't go against what should be a close game and Texas hasn't lost 3 in a row for who knows how long... SOOOOOOO I'm on (hard to force myself to say it!!) TEXAS + 11 (buy 1/2 -120)... Good Luck!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Comment
-
Goodluck videoman. I'll see you at the cash register
Comment
-
Go texas!!!!Comment
-
good luck! HOOK'EM HORNS!!Comment
-
Hey guys. Texas is looking GREAT and Tech is coming back. Looking like a good mid day. Sorry about that Miami 2nd half. That was quite a bad beat having 21 in the 3rd. Here is the rest of the games for the day. Enjoy!
North Carolina vs. Virginia
No Sweat Rating: 4 - Virginia +6.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 46
Final Score Prediction: Virginia 24 - North Carolina 17
This is another game I smell upset on. The line opened up at -7 and has dipped down to 6.5 or 6 on every book. Virginia has been playing better football than most think and are usually a solid home dog. With North Carolina laying this much chalk, and the line reversing, I think Virginia is a solid bet here. More than 70 percent is laying the chalk and also playing the ML of North Carolina. I expect a lot of ML parlays and teasers (which I NEVER RECOMMEND TO ANYONE) to be destroyed today with this game. The numbers show a good lean towards Virginia pulling the outright upset. I will be hitting the Virginia ML, Virginia 1H, and Virginia Game. If we get a halftime opportunity to hedge, I will also be doing that. Take Virginia at 6.5 and feel quite confident.
Utah vs. Wyoming
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Utah -22.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Over 53
Final Score Prediction: Utah 41 - Wyoming 13
South Carolina vs. Kentucky
No Sweat Rating: 3 - Kentucky +5.5
No Sweat Rating: 3 - Under 54.5
Final Score Prediction: South Carolina 17 - Kentucky 14
I'm expecting both a low scoring affair and a letdown with South Carolina today. I think Spurrier will find a way to win the game, but I do like Kentucky to cover the spread of 5.5. The line opened at 7 and has dropped either 1 1/2 or 2 full points since. Another suspicious line movement game. The big thing here that you need to factor in is that Kentucky always plays tough at home. Look at the Auburn game from last week. They will not quit. The emotions must be running high for Spurrier's squad, so I think they will come out a bit shaky. Nonetheless, I think South Carolina ultimately pulls a close, dirty win out. With over 70 percent on South Carolina today, taking Kentucky's spread at +5.5 for 3 units is a solid play.
Kent State vs. Toledo
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Kent State +4
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Over 44.5
Final Score Prediction: Kent State 28 - Toledo 27
Tulane vs. Tulsa
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Tulsa -18.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 55.5
Final Score Prediction: Tulsa 31 - Tulane 10
UL Monroe vs. Western Kentucky
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Western Kentucky -2.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Over 52
Final Score Prediction: Western Kentucky 31 - UL Monroe 24
ULL Lafayette vs. Troy
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Troy -20.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 59
Final Score Prediction: Troy 24 - ULL Lafayette 3
McNeese State vs. LSU
No Sweat Rating: 1 - McNeese State +41
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 55
Final Score Prediction: LSU 34 - McNeese State 6
Ohio State vs. Wisconsin
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Wisconsin +4
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 49
Final Score Prediction: Ohio State 17 - Wisconsin 14
Mississippi State vs. Florida
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Florida -9.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Over 46
Final Score Prediction: Florida 34 - Mississippi State 17
Iowa State vs. Oklahoma
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Oklahoma -22.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 59
Final Score Prediction: Oklahoma 41 - Iowa State 7
Baylor vs. Colorado
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Baylor -1.5
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Over 54.5
Final Score Prediction: Baylor 42 - Colorado 35
Florida International vs. North Texas
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Florida International -5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 47
Final Score Prediction: Florida International 24 - North Texas 10
Arizona vs. Washington State
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Arizona -22.5
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Over 61
Final Score Prediction: Arizona 52 - Washington State 21
Boise State vs. San Jose State
No Sweat Rating: 1 - San Jose State +41
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 57 1/2
Final Score Prediction: Boise State 45 - San Jose State 7
Air Force vs. San Diego State
No Sweat Rating: 2 - San Diego State +1
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 53.5
Final Score Prediction: San Diego State 27 - Air Force 24
Mississippi vs. Alabama
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Alabama -20.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Over 55
Final Score Prediction: Alabama 42 - Mississippi 14
Oregon State vs. Washington
No Sweat Rating: 5 - Washington -2
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 60
Final Score Prediction: Washington 24 - Oregon State 20
I love this game. The line opened up at a pick and moved in the reverse direction to Washington -2. Early analysis of the lines through Tuesday showed over 90 precent on Oregon State. Right now, roughly 70 percent is sitting on Oregon State. Trust me, I've watched both teams play a lot this year. I took Oregon State against Arizona State and Arizona. I also took Washington against Nebraska, USC and Arizona State. Therefore, I know how much variance Washington plays with. I think this is a solid line and I'm not expecting this game to be a blowout. I think this will go down to the wire, but I'm very confident that Washington will cover the -2 spread. Take Washington, put 5 units on them, and call it a night.
New Mexico State vs. Fresno State
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Fresno State -30
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Over 54
Final Score Prediction: Fresno State 45 - New Mexico State 12
Nevada vs. Hawaii
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Nevada -6.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Over 75.5
Final Score Prediction: Nevada 52 - Hawaii 35Comment
-
Guys take Nebraska at -7 for the second half. We could win everything! 1st half already in the books!Comment
Comment