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Hey guys,
I know I'm new here but I have been doing quite well on a few other forums and one of my friends showed me this site and I liked it. Therefore, I hope to bring some additional money to you guys with my weekly write up on games. In my thread, I never talk about "Why the team should win based on match ups". There are some really good threads regarding that, and I feel that I would be boring you with the same information. My approach over the last 7 years in handicapping relies on 2 things. 1) Discipline and 2) Huge Edges. I've been tweaking my system over the last few years but I feel I might have hit the nail on the head with the results I've been getting this year. I still need to work on being 100 percent disciplined. Nonetheless, here's my write up for the morning games. The games that I don't have a write up means that I will not be putting any money on it. My system still predicts all the games though. I also would love to hear the input on this forum about my thoughts and I always respond well to positive feedback.
Maryland vs. Clemson
No Sweat Rating: 5 - Clemson -14
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 47
Final Score Prediction: Clemson 34 - Maryland 10
This is one of my favorite plays of the day. The line opened up at -12 on Sunday and moved slowly but surely to the current spot at 14. Usually, I can predict around 70 percent of what I think my computers will predict the outcome to be. My personal opinion (which I weigh roughly 5% into all bets I make) matches up 100 percent with this game. When you look at this game, you see a Maryland squad (4-1, 1-0 ACC) going against a Clemson squad (2-3, 0-2 ACC). The great thing for us is that Clemson has been on national television for a few games and has disappointed. Maryland has flew under the radar the whole year (they haven't played ANYONE) and now goes into Clemson. What most people FAIL to realize on forums and discussion boards is what exactly the "General Public or JOE PUBLIC" is. The General Public/Joe Public are not people who are religiously on forums or discussion boards. The General Public/Joe Public are not looking into previous stats from years ago or thinking about upcoming games in teams schedules, days off, or anything like that. The General Public is someone who goes to Las Vegas and looks at the lines, says I like this, this, and this and finds out he can take a 3 team parlay that will pay horrible (but in his mind, wonderful) odds. That is the general public. Normal posters on discussion boards are by no means sharps, but are usually veteran and possibly weathered gamblers who like action. Therefore, the computer systems I made factor in all this information. Regarding this game, the line movement has acted a little abnormal. The spread has jumped 2 points, yet the differences in percentage of bets is roughly 5 percent. Therefore, the line has moved faster than it should have. This makes me even more confident about this play. Take Clemson 1H and Clemson for the game, and I will see you at the cash register. I recommend betting 5 units on this play.
Pittsburgh vs. Syracuse
No Sweat Rating: 3 - Pittsburgh -1.5
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Under 44
Final Score Prediction: Pittsburgh 17 - Syracuse 10
This game has boggled my mind for the whole week. At first site, last Sunday, I fell in love with Syracuse. The system I use which has been very profitable over the last few years is quite complex. While I can't spill the beans on the whole system, I can tell you that it does weigh heavily with reverse line movement, public trends, simulated games and past trends. There are special cut off lines that my computer determines to show what is a play, or what is not a play. The problem with this Syracuse game is that the computers have been spitting out mix results. This is very odd, which I have only seen in a number of games over the last 7 years. Therefore, I can only give Pittsburgh a No Sweat Rating of 3 due to the weird outputs my system is putting out. There are numerous threads and articles all over the internet that you can read about statistics or player-information. My daily article on games is not about that. Therefore, with the numbers I'm looking at, Pittsburgh is the play. On Sunday, the line opened up at Pittsburgh -1.5. The sharps hit the line hard pushing Syracuse to a -1.5 favorite by Tuesday. Though many books had early percentages favoring Pittsburgh at around 90 percent, the line was moving reverse. The problem is that reverse line movement is not anything to base your play on. You need to take it into consideration, but you should not blindly fire bets with reverse or odd line movement. The problem with this game is that the lined has moved back all the way to the original -1.5 that is has opened up at. With roughly 80 percent of the bets on Pittsburgh (I know many sites are different, I combine a lot of my own personal statistics with the percentages), this looks like a play on Syracuse at first glance. The problem is that the line significantly moved 3 points. If the line was still Syracuse -1.5, I would be writing a whole different article (most likely...). With the line back at the original, the play is Pittsburgh +1.5. Like I said, I can not disclose all the information I use to make this play, but this is the play. Take it at 3 units due to the inconsistency of my personal numbers, and I'll see you at the ticket counter.
Illinois vs. Michigan State
No Sweat Rating: 4 - Illinois +7
No Sweat Rating: 3 - Under 49
Final Score Prediction: Illinois 21 - Michigan State 20
The computers are predicting this game to be very, very close. I could see some value in the Moneyline at +245 but it is a bit risky. I rather take the +7 and be very comfortable. I recommend betting the 1H and Game for this game. I can see Michigan State being down at half and a very nice middle opportunity. Illinois opened at 7 and has stayed there the whole week. With early percentages slamming Michigan early in the week, I predicted that the line would jump up to +7.5 or even 8. Instead, the line has stayed flat at 7. Hmm...interesting right? Here's some additional information on this game. As I am typing right now, my computers have predicted a full blown upset in this game. With roughly 80 percent on Michigan State, with no line movement, Illinois is a solid play. As many of you read two weeks ago, I loved Illinois to cover against Ohio State. I feel that the general public has seen too much of Michigan State on national television lately. With big wins week in and week out, look for them to stall against this Illinois defense. Like I said, I like Illinois ML here, but I'm very confident with the +7. I would recommend placing 3 or 4 units on this play. You could make a play on the under as well.
NC State vs. East Carolina
No Sweat Rating: 3 - East Carolina +7.5
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Under 69
Final Score Prediction: East Carolina 34 - North Carolina State 31
Smell that? I do. Looks like another early morning upset. The line opened up at -7.5 and O/U 66. At some books now, the line has dropped to -7. Huh? With over 80 percent of the general wagers being placed on NC State, why would we see a drop now 3 hours before kickoff when we haven't seen one all week? I really like East Carolina in this spot. They have played well at home and while many believe NC State should be undefeated right now, I was heavily on VA Tech -4 a few weeks ago. Though NC State has made vast improvements and will be bowl bound this year, I expect a huge letdown today. The line looked fishy at first, and with the lack of movement until now, I feel even more confident. Take East Carolina +7.5, take East Carolina ML, and take East Carolina 1H and we could be expecting a nice sweep.
Southern Miss vs. Memphis
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Memphis +15
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 48.5
Final Score Prediction: Southern Miss 24 - Memphis 13
Miami (Ohio) vs. Central Michigan
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Miami Ohio +13.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 51
Final Score Prediction: Central Michigan 28 - Miami Ohio 17
Boston College vs. Florida State
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Boston College +22
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 48.5
Final Score Prediction: Florida State 24 - Boston College 13
Missouri vs. Texas A&M
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Texas A&M -3.5
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Under 57.5
Final Score Prediction: Texas A&M 27 - Missouri 21
Arkansas State vs. Indiana
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Indiana -10
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 66
Final Score Prediction: Indiana 35 - Arkansas State 17
Missouri vs. Texas A&M
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Texas A&M -3.5
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Under 57.5
Final Score Prediction: Texas A&M 27 - Missouri 21
Minnesota vs. Purdue
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Purdue -5.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Over 50.5
Final Score Prediction: Purdue 35 - Minnesota 24
Vanderbilt vs. Georgia
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Georgia -14.5
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Over 48
Final Score Prediction: Georgia 38 - Vanderbilt 17
I'm still crunching numbers for the later games, and I will post my results later in the morning. Goodluck all.
I know I'm new here but I have been doing quite well on a few other forums and one of my friends showed me this site and I liked it. Therefore, I hope to bring some additional money to you guys with my weekly write up on games. In my thread, I never talk about "Why the team should win based on match ups". There are some really good threads regarding that, and I feel that I would be boring you with the same information. My approach over the last 7 years in handicapping relies on 2 things. 1) Discipline and 2) Huge Edges. I've been tweaking my system over the last few years but I feel I might have hit the nail on the head with the results I've been getting this year. I still need to work on being 100 percent disciplined. Nonetheless, here's my write up for the morning games. The games that I don't have a write up means that I will not be putting any money on it. My system still predicts all the games though. I also would love to hear the input on this forum about my thoughts and I always respond well to positive feedback.
Maryland vs. Clemson
No Sweat Rating: 5 - Clemson -14
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 47
Final Score Prediction: Clemson 34 - Maryland 10
This is one of my favorite plays of the day. The line opened up at -12 on Sunday and moved slowly but surely to the current spot at 14. Usually, I can predict around 70 percent of what I think my computers will predict the outcome to be. My personal opinion (which I weigh roughly 5% into all bets I make) matches up 100 percent with this game. When you look at this game, you see a Maryland squad (4-1, 1-0 ACC) going against a Clemson squad (2-3, 0-2 ACC). The great thing for us is that Clemson has been on national television for a few games and has disappointed. Maryland has flew under the radar the whole year (they haven't played ANYONE) and now goes into Clemson. What most people FAIL to realize on forums and discussion boards is what exactly the "General Public or JOE PUBLIC" is. The General Public/Joe Public are not people who are religiously on forums or discussion boards. The General Public/Joe Public are not looking into previous stats from years ago or thinking about upcoming games in teams schedules, days off, or anything like that. The General Public is someone who goes to Las Vegas and looks at the lines, says I like this, this, and this and finds out he can take a 3 team parlay that will pay horrible (but in his mind, wonderful) odds. That is the general public. Normal posters on discussion boards are by no means sharps, but are usually veteran and possibly weathered gamblers who like action. Therefore, the computer systems I made factor in all this information. Regarding this game, the line movement has acted a little abnormal. The spread has jumped 2 points, yet the differences in percentage of bets is roughly 5 percent. Therefore, the line has moved faster than it should have. This makes me even more confident about this play. Take Clemson 1H and Clemson for the game, and I will see you at the cash register. I recommend betting 5 units on this play.
Pittsburgh vs. Syracuse
No Sweat Rating: 3 - Pittsburgh -1.5
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Under 44
Final Score Prediction: Pittsburgh 17 - Syracuse 10
This game has boggled my mind for the whole week. At first site, last Sunday, I fell in love with Syracuse. The system I use which has been very profitable over the last few years is quite complex. While I can't spill the beans on the whole system, I can tell you that it does weigh heavily with reverse line movement, public trends, simulated games and past trends. There are special cut off lines that my computer determines to show what is a play, or what is not a play. The problem with this Syracuse game is that the computers have been spitting out mix results. This is very odd, which I have only seen in a number of games over the last 7 years. Therefore, I can only give Pittsburgh a No Sweat Rating of 3 due to the weird outputs my system is putting out. There are numerous threads and articles all over the internet that you can read about statistics or player-information. My daily article on games is not about that. Therefore, with the numbers I'm looking at, Pittsburgh is the play. On Sunday, the line opened up at Pittsburgh -1.5. The sharps hit the line hard pushing Syracuse to a -1.5 favorite by Tuesday. Though many books had early percentages favoring Pittsburgh at around 90 percent, the line was moving reverse. The problem is that reverse line movement is not anything to base your play on. You need to take it into consideration, but you should not blindly fire bets with reverse or odd line movement. The problem with this game is that the lined has moved back all the way to the original -1.5 that is has opened up at. With roughly 80 percent of the bets on Pittsburgh (I know many sites are different, I combine a lot of my own personal statistics with the percentages), this looks like a play on Syracuse at first glance. The problem is that the line significantly moved 3 points. If the line was still Syracuse -1.5, I would be writing a whole different article (most likely...). With the line back at the original, the play is Pittsburgh +1.5. Like I said, I can not disclose all the information I use to make this play, but this is the play. Take it at 3 units due to the inconsistency of my personal numbers, and I'll see you at the ticket counter.
Illinois vs. Michigan State
No Sweat Rating: 4 - Illinois +7
No Sweat Rating: 3 - Under 49
Final Score Prediction: Illinois 21 - Michigan State 20
The computers are predicting this game to be very, very close. I could see some value in the Moneyline at +245 but it is a bit risky. I rather take the +7 and be very comfortable. I recommend betting the 1H and Game for this game. I can see Michigan State being down at half and a very nice middle opportunity. Illinois opened at 7 and has stayed there the whole week. With early percentages slamming Michigan early in the week, I predicted that the line would jump up to +7.5 or even 8. Instead, the line has stayed flat at 7. Hmm...interesting right? Here's some additional information on this game. As I am typing right now, my computers have predicted a full blown upset in this game. With roughly 80 percent on Michigan State, with no line movement, Illinois is a solid play. As many of you read two weeks ago, I loved Illinois to cover against Ohio State. I feel that the general public has seen too much of Michigan State on national television lately. With big wins week in and week out, look for them to stall against this Illinois defense. Like I said, I like Illinois ML here, but I'm very confident with the +7. I would recommend placing 3 or 4 units on this play. You could make a play on the under as well.
NC State vs. East Carolina
No Sweat Rating: 3 - East Carolina +7.5
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Under 69
Final Score Prediction: East Carolina 34 - North Carolina State 31
Smell that? I do. Looks like another early morning upset. The line opened up at -7.5 and O/U 66. At some books now, the line has dropped to -7. Huh? With over 80 percent of the general wagers being placed on NC State, why would we see a drop now 3 hours before kickoff when we haven't seen one all week? I really like East Carolina in this spot. They have played well at home and while many believe NC State should be undefeated right now, I was heavily on VA Tech -4 a few weeks ago. Though NC State has made vast improvements and will be bowl bound this year, I expect a huge letdown today. The line looked fishy at first, and with the lack of movement until now, I feel even more confident. Take East Carolina +7.5, take East Carolina ML, and take East Carolina 1H and we could be expecting a nice sweep.
Southern Miss vs. Memphis
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Memphis +15
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 48.5
Final Score Prediction: Southern Miss 24 - Memphis 13
Miami (Ohio) vs. Central Michigan
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Miami Ohio +13.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 51
Final Score Prediction: Central Michigan 28 - Miami Ohio 17
Boston College vs. Florida State
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Boston College +22
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 48.5
Final Score Prediction: Florida State 24 - Boston College 13
Missouri vs. Texas A&M
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Texas A&M -3.5
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Under 57.5
Final Score Prediction: Texas A&M 27 - Missouri 21
Arkansas State vs. Indiana
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Indiana -10
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 66
Final Score Prediction: Indiana 35 - Arkansas State 17
Missouri vs. Texas A&M
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Texas A&M -3.5
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Under 57.5
Final Score Prediction: Texas A&M 27 - Missouri 21
Minnesota vs. Purdue
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Purdue -5.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Over 50.5
Final Score Prediction: Purdue 35 - Minnesota 24
Vanderbilt vs. Georgia
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Georgia -14.5
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Over 48
Final Score Prediction: Georgia 38 - Vanderbilt 17
I'm still crunching numbers for the later games, and I will post my results later in the morning. Goodluck all.
to the site! Glad to have you. 
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