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**StarDust Bum** · 09-14-2010, 09:00 PM

Packers to be shorthanded as big favorite vs. Bills

BUFFALO BILLS
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-13.5)

Green Bay received some bad news Tuesday afternoon when starting RB Ryan Grant was diagnosed with a torn ligament in his ankle and will likely miss the rest of the year. In the past three seasons, Grant rushed for 3,412 yards and 23 touchdowns. The Packers also lost starting DL Justin Harrell for the season due to a torn ACL. Harrell was a first-round draft pick in 2007 and plays multiple positions on the D-Line.
Brandon Jackson will replace Grant as the starter. Jackson, a fourth-year pro from Nebraska, did not have any double-digit-carry games last year. He had just 82 rushes combined in 2008 and 2009, but handled the workload nicely in Sunday’s win at Philadelphia when Jackson gained 63 yards on 18 carries and caught two passes for 12 yards.

Jackson’s job should be easier Sunday facing a Buffalo squad that allowed 156 rushing yards per game in 2009, ranking 30th out of the 32 teams in the league. These teams have only met once since 2002, a Buffalo 24-10 win in 2006.

FoxSheets expects Buffalo to bounce back from last week’s five-point defeat to Miami.

BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after a loss by 6 or less points over the last 3 seasons. The average score was BUFFALO 30.0, OPPONENT 18.5 - (Rating = 0*).

**StarDust Bum** · 09-14-2010, 09:01 PM

Home underdogs prevailed in Week 1

Week 1 of the 2010 NFL season was a solid week for home teams, whether they were favored or not. If you liked home underdogs, the money line was the way to go. Home ‘dogs were a solid 5-3 ATS, with all five ATS winners also winning SU. Houston, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Seattle and Washington all prevailed while getting points at home. The opening lines for Week 2 provide just three such opportunities: Detroit hosting Philadelphia, Washington entertaining Houston and San Francisco welcoming New Orleans.
Home favorites went 5-2-1 ATS, 7-1 SU. The Jets were the only home team to lose SU. Chicago, a straight-up winner but ATS loser, and Tampa Bay, who won SU but pushed, were the other two home favorites who failed to cover.

Last year’s bottom feeders ATS made positive impressions in the opening week. Detroit, worst in the NFL at 4-10-2 ATS in 2009, covered against Chicago and many believe the Lions should have won the game outright based on the controversial incompletion call at the end of their heartbreaking loss to the Bears. Jacksonville, 5-11 ATS last year including 0-4 in their last four games, was an impressive ATS and SU winner over Denver, who was a respectable 9-7 ATS a season ago. Pittsburgh, 5-10-1 ATS last year when they failed to earn the opportunity to defend their Super Bowl title in the playoffs, knocked off Atlanta as a home underdog in Week 1.

Seattle, tied for fourth worst last year ATS, may be gaining some believers under first-year head coach Pete Carroll after its resounding upset win over the well-regarded San Francisco 49ers. Last year in the college ranks, Carroll and USC were an uncharacteristic 4-9 ATS after three consecutive winning seasons ATS (8-5, 7-6, 7-6).

It was not the best of weekends for the six teams that represented the AFC in last year’s playoffs. New England and Baltimore both beat the spread and won their games, but Cincinnati, the Jets, Indianapolis and San Diego all lost both ATS and outright. Granted, the Bengals and Jets lost to fellow playoff teams in the Patriots and Ravens, but the two squads that were not facing a playoff participant from a year ago, the Colts and Chargers, failed to deliver as road favorites.

NFC playoff teams from a year ago performed slightly better, going 3-3 both ATS and SU. Green Bay and New Orleans won ATS and outright over 2009 post-season alums Philly and Minnesota, respectively. While Arizona got the job done both ATS and SU against last year’s cellar-dwelling St. Louis Rams, Dallas could not take care of its business on the road against rival Washington.

Divisionally speaking, no division went a perfect 4-for-4 ATS. The AFC South was the only division to go 3-1 ATS (also 3-1 SU), with the only loss coming in the intra-divisional matchup between Houston and Indianapolis. On the flip side, no division went 0-for-4 ATS, but the AFC West went 1-3 both ATS and SU, with the only win occurring in the intra-divisional clash between Kansas City and San Diego.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-14-2010, 09:26 PM

NFL Tech Trends - Week 2

KANSAS CITY at CLEVELAND...Although KC opened smartly with a win and cover at home vs. San Diego, Chiefs were better vs. line on road (5-3) than at home (2-6) LY, and are 16-8 vs. line away (all as dog) since ‘07. Browns 10-5 as chalk for Romeo Crennel and Eric Mangini since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to Chiefs, based on extended road mark.

BUFFALO at GREEN BAY...Bills "under" 12-6 last 18 since late ‘08. Pack 34-17 vs. line since late ‘06, also "over" 32-20 since ‘07. Tech edge-Pack, based on team trends.

BALTIMORE at CINCINNATI...Teams have taken turns sweeping one another the past three seasons, if pattern continues this will be Ravens’ year. If Cincy chalk note 0-8 mark in role LY and 4-17 last 21 since late ‘06. Marvin Lewis also "under" 18-8 last 26 at Paul Brown Stadium. "Unders" 5-2 last 7 in series. Tech edge-Ravens, especially if dog, and slight to "under" based on team and "totals" trends.

PITTSBURGH at TENNESSEE...Titans have covered last 2 years vs. Steel and are also "over" 11-4-1 last 16 as host. Tomlin 7-2 as dog with Steel and Pittsburgh "over" 8-4 last 12 away. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Steel, based on "totals" and team trends.

PHILADELPHIA at DETROIT...Andy Reid 4-1 as road chalk LY and 8-4 laying 7 points or more since ‘07. Lions 8-15 vs. line at home since ‘07. Lions also "over" 12-6-1 last 19 at Ford Field. Tech edge-slight to Eagles and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

CHICAGO at DALLAS...Wade Phillips now 10-4 his last 14 as home chalk. Meanwhile, Lovie Smith just 3-10 vs. number last 13 on road, 0-5 as road dog LY, 4-11 in role since ‘07. Tech edge-Cowboys, based on team trends.

TAMPA BAY at CAROLINA...Carolina has won and covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 meetings. Panthers also "under" 17-7 since ‘07 at Charlotte. Raheem Morris "under" 11-6 since LY. Tech edge-"Under" and slight to Panthers, based on "totals" and team trends.

ARIZONA at ATLANTA...Whisenhunt 7-1 as dog LY and now 10-1 last 11 in role. Falcs, however, were 6-2 as chalk LY (5-1 in role at home). Atlanta also "under" 6-2 at Georgia Dome LY, and Cards were "under" 11-5 in reg. season LY). Tech edge-"Under" and slight to Cards, based on team trends.

MIAMI at MINNESOTA...Vikes 6-2 vs. line at home LY, all as chalk. Sparano, however, 11-4 vs. line last 15 away from home. He’s also "under" 9-4 last 13 away. Tech edge-slight to Dolphins and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

ST. LOUIS at OAKLAND...Raiders 0-6 as chalk since ‘07, 0-11 last 11 in role. Rams "under" 18-9 last 27 away. Tech edge-Rams and "under," based on team, and "totals" trends.

SEATTLE at DENVER...Seahawks 1-8 last 9 vs. line away and 8-17 last 25 as visitor. Josh McDaniels was 3-3 as chalk LY but Broncos had been real chalk underachievers in the later Shanahan years (just 6-23 in Shan’s last 29 as chalk with Broncos). Seattle "over" 7-3 last 10 away. Tech edge-slight to "over," based on Seahawk "totals" trend.

HOUSTON at WASHINGTON...Interesting Kubiak vs. Shanahan, Kubiak won previous meeting 31-13 in ‘07. Kubiak 8-4 vs. line his last 12 on road, although Texans just 1-4 as road chalk since '07. Prior to wild win and cover in Dallas opener, Skins were just 3-11 vs. line their last 14 as host for Jim Zorn, and Shanahan had a 4-17 home spread mark his last 21 as host in Denver. Skins also "under" 20-9 last 29 at home. Tech edge-Texans and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

JACKSONVILLE at SAN DIEGO...Del Rio just 3-8 vs. number last 11 away (all as dog). Previous solid Del Rio dog mark has been waning lately. But Norv’s early-season numbers nothing to get excited about (Bolts 5-9-1 vs. line first 5 games of season since ‘07). Tech edge-slight to Chargers, based on recent Jag spread woes.

NEW ENGLAND at NY JETS...Teams have split SU the past 2 years and split the season series vs. spread the past four years. Belichick actually 9-6 vs. line away since ‘08 and "under" 7-2 last 9 away. Tech edge-slight to Patriots and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

NY GIANTS at INDIANAPOLIS...Coughlin is 14-5 his last 19 as dog since late ‘06, 11-4 as dog on road. Indy just 11-13 as home chalk since ‘07. Tech edge-Giants, based on team trends.

NEW ORLEANS at SAN FRANCISCO (Monday, September 20)...Singletary "under" 15-6-1 last 22 and 49ers 7-1 last 8 as dog, also 7-2-1 vs. line their last 10 as host. Singletary 14-7-1 last 22 on board (though 0-1 in 2010). Tech edge-49ers and "under," based on Singletary trends.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-14-2010, 09:28 PM

Week 1 Rewind

Never a dull moment in the NFL – ever. Are the Patriots back? They sure looked good in Week 1. Are the Colts headed south? They got off to an inauspicious start. Do we have a quarterback controversy in Philadelphia? Michael Vick sure did look like his old self on Sunday.

Let’s go through all the games and touch on a few hot topics.

Saints 14, Vikings 9
This wasn’t the epic clash we saw in last year’s NFC Championship Game, but it was certainly a nail-biter for our purposes and a fine way to start the 2010 campaign. Garrett Hartley, the hero against the Vikings with his game-winning field goal last season, was the goat for bettors backing New Orleans. Hartley missed a pair of FGs, including a chip shot that would’ve put the Saints ahead of the number late in the final stanza. Instead, most gamblers settled for a push with Sean Payton’s team closing as a five-point favorite. Brett Favre didn’t have Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin was a non-factor, but he got into a nice rhythm with Visanthe Shiancoe in the first half. Shiancoe’s 20-yard TD grab late in the second quarter gave Minnesota a 9-7 lead at intermission. But the Saints blanked the Vikes in the second half and established their running game on the way to a season-opening victory. The ‘under’ easily cashed tickets with the 23 combined points falling well below the closing number of 49.

Steelers 15, Falcons 9 (OVERTIME)
For 60 minutes, nobody could score a touchdown. Then on Pittsburgh’s first offensive play of overtime after stopping Atlanta, Rashard Mendanhall busted off tackle right for a 50-yard touchdown run to put the Steelers in the win column. They won outright as one-point underdogs, while the ‘under’ was an easy winner. Dennis Dixon threw for 236 yards and was intercepted once in 26 attempts. Jeff Reed missed a potential game-winning field goal late in the fourth quarter, but the Falcons couldn’t take advantage.

Texans 34, Colts 24
Houston got a Herculean effort from Arian Foster, who rushed 33 times for 231 yards and three touchdowns. Arian Who, you ask? Foster spent last year on the practice squad and had a decent collegiate career at Tennessee. Anyway, he was the difference for the Texans, who beat Indy for just the second time in 17 tries. Peyton Manning had to throw it 57 times, completing 40 for 433 yards with three TDs and no interceptions. But it wasn’t enough, as the Texans made a Week 1 statement in the AFC South. The ‘over’ hit when the 58 combined points eclipsed the 47-point mark.

Bears 19, Lions 14
This game had a controversial finish with Calvin Johnson’s potential game-winning TD catch getting nullified in the final minute. The Lions lost Matthew Stafford to a shoulder injury in the first half but thanks to a riveting goal-line stand, they had a chance to win at the end. But a booth review cancelled Johnson’s go-ahead TD and the Bears were able to prevail. Nevertheless, Detroit hooked up its backers as a 6 ½-point underdog. The 33 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 44 ½-point total. Jay Cutler threw for 372 yards and a pair of touchdowns compared to only one interception. He hit Matt Forte for a 28-yard scoring strike with 1:32 left for what proved to be the winning score.

Dolphins 15, Bills 10
Miami backers love them some Chan Gailey, who opted to take a safety on purpose rather than punting out of the end zone with 1:33 remaining. This gave the ‘Fins the cover as three-point favorites. The ‘under’ was an easy winner in this grind-it-out affair. Ronnie Brown and Rickey Williams combined for 127 yards on 31 carries, while Brown had the team’s lone touchdown on a one-yard plunge. Miami’s defense was dynamite, limiting dynamic Buffalo rookie RB C.J. Spiller to just 14 yards on 11 touches.

Bucs 17, Browns 14
I was a Cleveland backer in this spot and felt great about my chances when the Browns took a 14-3 lead late in the second quarter. However, Josh Freeman rallied the Bucs with a pair of TD passes, including a 33-yard scoring strike to Micheal Spurlock with 6:45 left to put the Bucs in front. Jake Delhomme threw a pair of interceptions for the Browns. The 31 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 37-point tally.

Patriots 38, Bengals 24
Don’t be fooled by the final score because this was a blowout. The Pats went up by a 31-3 count when they returned the opening kick of the second half for a touchdown. Tom Brady was extremely sharp, completing 25-of-35 passes for 258 yards and three TDs without an interception. Wes Welker had eight receptions and a pair of TD grabs, capping a remarkable comeback from a serious knee injury late last season. The Bengals got their stats in the second half, but they were never in the game. The Pats easily covered as five-point favorites and the ‘over’ was also an easy winner.

Giants 31, Panthers 18
Eli Manning threw three TD passes to Hakeem Nicks, as the G-Men pulled away from Carolina in the second half and took the cash as six-point favorites. Panthers’ QB Matt Moore committed four turnovers, throwing three picks and coughing up a fumble before leaving the game with a concussion.

Jags 24, Broncos 17
Jacksonville got a solid performance out of veteran QB David Garrard, who hit Kassim Osgood with a 24-yard TD pass midway through the fourth quarter to lift the Jags into the winner’s circle. Garrard threw three TD passes and wasn’t intercepted, while Maurice Jones-Drew ran for 98 yards. Bets on the total resulted in a push.

Titans 38, Raiders 13
Chris Johnson ran for 142 yards and two touchdowns, while Vince Young tossed a pair of TD passes in this run-away-and-hide victory for the Titans. The Raiders were a total no-show with the exception of Darren McFadden, who had 150 yards on 24 touches. The 51 combined points sailed ‘over’ the 39 ½-point total.

Packers 27, Eagles 20
Green Bay surged into a 27-10 lead late in the third quarter and appeared to be in cruise control. Kevin Kolb had been removed from the game with a concussion, giving Michael Vick his first extended playing time during a regular season game since being released from prison. With fresh legs, Vick looked sensational, turning broken plays into first downs while leading the Eagles up and down the field. They had a chance to tie late in the fourth quarter, but a shaky fourth-and-one call for Vick to run inside (rather than out on the edge to utilize his incredible speed) was stuffed by Clay Matthews, who played like a Pro-Bowler all day for Green Bay. Vick ran for 103 yards and threw for 175, igniting a QB controversy that I'll be glad to touch on at length during Thursday's edition of The Power Hours on VI Radio. The Packers hooked up their backers as three-point favorites.

Seahawks 31, 49ers 6
There’s no getting around the fact that Pete Carroll’s debut in Seattle was a roaring success. The Seahawks scored 31 unanswered points and made a statement by destroying the NFC West favorites. They took the money as short home underdogs, while bets on the total were a push (37).

Cardinals 17, Rams 13
Arizona held on to cover, but it wasn’t pretty at all. Derek Anderson threw for 297 yards and found Larry Fitzgerald for a 21-yard TD pass midway through the final stanza. The Rams had plenty of chances down the stretch, but they couldn’t capitalize. Nevertheless, they have to feel good about their rookie QB Sam Bradford, who completed 32-of-55 passes for 253 yards. Bradford was intercepted three times, but that’s going to happen if he has to throw it more than 50 times. For the most part, I thought he looked sharp (for a rookie debut, that is). The ‘under’ cashed tickets for gamblers.

Redskins 13, Cowboys 7
Dallas gift-wrapped this victory for the Redskins and the home team took advantage. DeAngelo Hall returned a fumble for a TD on the last play of the first half and Donovan McNabb moved the offense just enough to get field goals. The Cowboys appeared to score on the last play of the game, but Tony Romo’s TD pass was nullified by another holding penalty on OT Alex Barron.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--The thing I might have liked the most from Week 1 was the way Detroit head coach Jim Schwartz handled his team’s controversial loss. Schwartz refused to blame the officials and wasn’t about to lament the loss in a woe-is-me fashion. The Lions have themselves a leader in Schwartz, who also has himself a decent defense this year. Now it appears that Stafford will miss 4-8 weeks, but Shaun Hill is serviceable and it says here that this team will continue to be competitive.

--The ‘under’ finished 9-5-2 after cashing in both games of Monday’s double-header.

--The favorites failed to hook up their backers in the MNF games, causing the chalk/dog thing to be a wash for the weekend. The favorites went 7-7-2.

--Pittsburgh, Houston, Seattle, Washington, Baltimore and Kansas City were the six underdogs to win outright.

--I think Green Bay’s Greg Jennings is now the NFL’s best wide receiver.

--That wasn’t the first time Calvin Johnson allowed a potential game-winning TD catch to get away from him. On a Thursday night in 2005 with Ga. Tech trailing N.C. St. by a 17-14 count in the final seconds, Reggie Ball hit Johnson in the hands with what should’ve been the winning TD pass. However, Johnson bobbled the ball multiple times and then a Wolfpack defender grabbed the ball out of the air for a game-sealing interception.

--Ray Lewis is one in 10 billion, maybe the greatest defensive player in NFL history. What a performance by Lewis in Baltimore's 10-9 win over the Jets. Still rattled by a hit from Lewis, Dustin Keller was so out to lunch that he didn't even try to reach the ball over the first-down marker on fourth down in the final minute.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-14-2010, 09:30 PM

Seahawks save the books

The Las Vegas sports books got a San Francisco treat Sunday thanks to Pete Carroll and his Seahawks blasting the 49ers 31-6 in the late afternoon games which ultimately saved the day. Had the 49ers won, it would have been a dark day to kick off what was supposed to be a festive weekend for everyone involved, including the house. The main public games of the day with the Titans, Dolphins and Packers had already come in with many of the other games getting mixed two way action.

“The Seahawks really saved us,“ said Las Vegas Hilton Super Book Executive Director Jay Kornegay, “We did okay in the morning games, but the Packers game was a big decision that didn’t go our way making the 49ers game pretty important heading into the night game.”

The Dolphins game was heavily bet by the public on parlays and they were sitting on the spread with a 13-10 lead late in the fourth quarter when Bills long snapper Garrison Sanborn snapped the ball out of bounds for a safety. The 15-10 margin either immediately made much of the public winners or set the stage for the late showdown for a big payday on three and four team parlays.

“We really didn’t need that safety,“ said Kornegay in somewhat of a joking, but serious tone.

The first nine games of the day still showed a small profit for the day, but the perfect storm was brewing with huge risk tied to both the Packers and 49ers.

“It looked as though we might have been a helped a bit with a Michael Vick miracle,” said MGM Resorts Race and Sports Director Jay Rood, “He came really close.”

The Packers were favored by three-points all week and while there wasn’t any sharp risk involved in the game, nearly 85% of the ticket counts on the game had the Packers. It looked like Green Bay would walk away with an easy win, but Vick made it interesting with some sharp passing and running, looking the old Vick for the first time since his Falcons days.

The one saving grace for the day, the difference between a small winning day and being close to a push, rested with the Seahawks. Nearly 75% of all tickets bet on that game had the 49ers and it was the final leg of many folks parlays making the risk much greater for the game than the actual win would be.

The Cowboys losing to Washington in the late game would be the cherry on top of a decent first week of pro football for the sports books. Whether the late penalty occurred or not, negating a Cowboys touchdown as time expired, the books would do well simply because Dallas wouldn’t cover the 3 ½-points and the game stayed under 40 points.

The first week of action was fair and balanced for everyone involved. The bettors won a little bit and the house kept a little bit equivalent, or just a little higher, to what the juice is for betting a straight game. Neither side got buried which is a good thing and keeps the cycle of interest going with confidence heading into week two action.

Quarterbacks Injured

Matt Stafford hurt his shoulder in last weeks Bears game and is questionable for Sunday’s against the Eagles. Should Stafford be unable to go, Shaun Hill will take over the reigns. Panthers quarterback Matt Moore left the Giants game with a head injury after an unproductive afternoon. Should the league and team cautious approach occur like they did last year and rest Moore, enter rookie Jimmy Clausen into the mix. Clausen actually looked better in pre-season than Moore. The Eagles Kevin Kolb also had concussion symptoms in the first half their game against the Packers with Michael Vick taking over. Prior to being injured, Kolb was only able to complete 5 short passes for 24 yards.

The Good, The Bad and the Ugly

On this list we’ll just stick with all of our ugly teams from last year and maybe add a new tenant to the building with the Bills. 166 yards of offense in a home opener by the Bills suggests that they may be comfortable with losing like that. If you can’t get jazzed for an opener then you probably won’t anywhere. I liked what I saw out of the Rams with Sam Bradford. He may be okay this season if he can get a few wide-outs to hang onto the ball. The Browns are improved and gained 340 yards of offense, but Jake Delhomme did throw two picks in the loss at Tampa Bay. The Bucs Josh Freeman did a good job in controlling the game late and securing the win.

The Lions played well even without Matt Stafford in the second half and got the cover. They deserved to win and I‘m still unsure about whatever that rule is that took away Calvin Johnson’s late score. The Raiders looked bad in their loss but showed signs of improving while the Chiefs play Monday night. Of the seven teams, I feel comfortable that the Browns, Rams, Lions and Bucs will be much more competitive than 2009 and make bettors think twice about what used to be an easy decision of betting against them.

Player of the Week

If you had the NFL’s top passing attack in 2009 but failed to make the playoffs thanks to losing to division rival Indianapolis twice in the fourth-quarter, the only natural thing to do would appear to try the opposite like run more, right? That’s exactly what Gray Kubiak’s offensive game plan was for Sunday’s 34-24 win over the Colts. Matt Shaub only had 17 pass attempts while Arian Foster carried the ball 33 times for 231 yards and three touchdowns. Foster’s big day cemented his status as the Texan’s feature back and could be a prelude of more things to come for a prosperous 2010 season.

No Show of the Week

C.J. Spiller was a back that was supposed to have a big debut Sunday against the Dolphins, but the Bills back rushed for only 6 yards in a 15-10 loss. Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch each had more yards. For fantasy football players, the faith placed on Spiller early in drafts have many already looking for new options via trade or the limited free-agent pool.

This Week’s Games

I like the way Steelers quarterback Dennis Dixon plays, but I also like him at home better. This week the Steelers head into Nashville to play the Titans and will be a 7-point dog or higher by kickoff. The Titans will have the support of everyone who had them last week along with everyone who saw that Steelers needed overtime to beat the Falcons at home. Look for the Titans to win by 13.

The Derek Anderson era has begun in Arizona and they are 1-0; take that Matt Leinart. But before we start to think this team is ready for the Super Bowl again, let’s not forget that they struggled with turnovers and barely beat the Rams last week. Arizona showed me little and I’m feeling pretty good about the Falcons chances of winning by 17 in their home opener.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-14-2010, 09:45 PM

NFL Betting: Bears Visit Dallas Cowboys

The Chicago Bears and Dallas Cowboys debuted with similar performances in Week 1.

The Bears may be 1-0 in the standings. But they are 0-for-1 in restoring the confidence of their fans. They barely beat the worst team on their schedule despite giving up four sacks and committing nine penalties. They survived only because of a wrong-headed rule about what is and isn’t a reception.

For the first time since losing a season opener at Jacksonville in 2006, the Cowboys own a losing record. Perhaps it’s time to find the panic button after they scored one touchdown that counted in a 13-7 loss Sunday night to last season’s NFC East bottom-feeder, the Washington Redskins.

Dallas debuts at home Sunday night against the Bears, looking to avoid its first 0-2 start since 2001. Most offshore books opened the Cowboys as 8 ½-point NFL spread favorites. Bookmaker.com opened its ‘total’ set at 42 ½, a number that has since been bet down to 41 at nearly all offshore sites.

Dallas looked like a bunch of stumblebums in the preseason and pretty much the same through three quarters of its opener. The Cowboys stacked up 380 yards and 24 first downs with two offensive line starters out, which essentially eliminated the vertical passing game. But they failed to finish drives, a continuation of their biggest flaw from last season.

When Dallas loses 13-7, the offense gets all the heat. But keep in mind the Cowboys defense was going against an awful Washington attack.

The Cowboys have bounced back to cash at a 25-18-1 ATS clip at home after scoring 14 points or less and they are 7-1 as favorites of less than 10 points versus NFC North competition.

However, Dallas is on the wrong end of a very strong Week 2 trend. In a matchup between conference rivals, teams who scored 10 or less points in Week 1 are 1-6 ATS in their next game and 17-33-1 ATS since 1988.

Chicago is 7-19-2 ATS off a SU win and 3-12-2 ATS after allowing less than 15 points in its previous game. The Bears have also flunked eight of their past 10 conference tests ATS and dropped five of six spread decisions on the highway.

In addition, they are 1-9 as dogs versus an opponent off a SU favorite loss.

Chicago has ended on the low side in 13 of 16 games after an ATS loss and it has strayed ‘under’ in 12 of 17 on the road. The Bears have also ducked ‘under’ at a 28-9-1 clip as non-division road pups.

The Cowboys have topped the ‘total’ at a 22-12-1 pace at home after losing SU and ATS.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-14-2010, 09:46 PM

Manning Bowl highlights Week 2 NFL betting

The New England Patriots were impressive in every phase against a Cincinnati team that’s supposed to be a legit contender in the AFC. Back in 2007 the Patriots opened the season with a torrid streak of ‘covers.’ Their Week 1 win over the Bengals looked a lot like the beginning of ’07.

New England steps up in class next Sunday when they travel to the Meadowlands to face the New York Jets in a key division clash that is arguably the marquee matchup on the Week 2 NFL menu.

The Patriots had won eight straight games against the Jets at the Meadowlands and 12 of 15 overall until coming up short last season as three-point NFL spread favorites, 16-9.

That loss also snapped a 10-game New England ‘cover’ run at the old Meadowlands. The Patriots have ‘covered’ nine of their past 13 road openers.

Cincinnati figures to have a tough time picking up the pieces and avoiding a 0-2 start when it returns home to host the Baltimore Ravens, who will be coming off a Monday night match with the Jets.

The Ravens hit town in double-revenge mode after dropping a pair of low-scoring decisions to the Bengals in 2009. Cincinnati scored an upset victory as three-point home dogs last season, 17-7.

However, the Bengals have floundered in 35 of 51 ATS at home in September. The SU winner in this heated division rivalry is 26-2 ATS.

The Sunday night showcase on NBC features the second edition of the Manning Bowl. Eli Manning’s New York Giants opened with an ugly 31-18 win over Carolina as seven-point home favorites. Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts were ambushed at Houston, 34-24.

The Giants were one of the best road teams in the NFL from 2006-08 (22-7 ATS) but they were just 4-4 ATS on the highway last year and they failed to ‘cover’ seven of 10 versus non-division foes.

The Colts have struggled at home in September, losing 25 of 40 SU.

Carolina plays its next two games at home, but that’s not necessarily a good thing. The Panthers are 7-15-1 ATS as home favorites in the first four weeks of the season and they have also ended on the low side at a 16-6-1 clip over the same span.

Carolina has cashed 12 of its last 17 against Tampa Bay. The division foes have strayed ‘under’ in 12 of the last 15 series clashes.

San Diego returns home after playing Monday at Kansas City to host the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Chargers were 18-9 ATS at Qualcomm Stadium from 2006-08, but just 3-5-1 in 2009. They have ‘covered’ 15 of their last 21 as home ‘chalk’ in September.

Jacksonville has failed to cash 11 of its last 17 on the road and it was 1-9 ATS in 2009 versus teams outside its division.

Optimistic NFL oddsmakers have installed the Oakland Raiders as six-point favorites for their home opener against the St. Louis Cardinals. The Raiders have come up short at a 15-7-2 clip as favorites in their home debut.

Miami stays on the road to face the Minnesota Vikings after opening the season with a 15-10 win at Buffalo as two-point favorites. The Dolphins have ‘covered’ at a 16-6-1 clip as non-division short-enders of five points or more.

Minnesota was 9-0 SU and 6-2-1 ATS at **** of America Field last season.

The Green Bay Packers thrived as favorites in 2009, going 8-4-1, and they also cashed at a 7-3-1 clip versus teams from outside their division. However, they are 8-14 as September home favorites.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-15-2010, 06:11 PM

Healthy roster gives Dallas better opportunity to cover

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CHICAGO BEARS
DALLAS COWBOYS (-8.5)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Total: 40.5

The Cowboys should be at full strength Sunday against Chicago as they try to bounce back from a rough season opener. LB DeMarcus Ware suffered a stinger in the loss at Washington, but further tests showed no damage and Ware is expected to play Sunday. Considering Ware is the best defensive player in Dallas, with 65.5 sacks and 23 forced fumbles in five-plus NFL seasons, this is great news for the Cowboys.

Reports out of Dallas are also positive about its offensive line. RT Marc Colombo and LG Kyle Kosier, who both missed Week 1 with knee injuries, are both expected to suit up against the Bears. Colombo was sorely missed in the Redskins loss, as his replacement Alex Barron had a terrible day. These additions will make QB Tony Romo feel more secure against a strong Bears pass defense that allowed just 148 yards on 34 pass attempts in their win over Detroit.

These teams have only met twice since 2000, with Dallas winning both meetings handily (21-7 in 2004 and 34-10 in 2007). This FoxSheets trend expects another Dallas win based on Bears coach Lovie Smith’s past history coming off a strong offensive game.

Smith is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of CHICAGO. The average score was CHICAGO 18.1, OPPONENT 20.8 - (Rating = 2*).

The Under also looks like a good play. According to the FoxSheets, Play Under - Any team against the total (CHICAGO) - in conference games, first 2 weeks of the year, non-playoff team from prior season who won their last 2 games. (34-13 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.3%, +19.7 units. Rating = 2*).

CHICAGO is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHICAGO 15.4, OPPONENT 23.1 - (Rating = 1*).

**StarDust Bum** · 09-16-2010, 06:26 PM

Defensive struggle should favor Ravens on Sunday

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BALTIMORE RAVENS (1-0)
at CINCINNATI BENGALS (0-1)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Baltimore -1.5, Total: 40

Two top-notch defenses lock horns in this AFC North clash on Sunday. Both teams allowed just 301 yards per game last year, with the Ravens ranking third in the NFL and the Bengals right behind them in the fourth slot. Baltimore was said to have major holes to fill in its secondary with safety Ed Reed out six weeks and CB Domonique Foxworth out for the season with a torn ACL. But the Ravens defense was dominant Monday night in holding the Jets to 176 yards, including just 60 through the air. The imminent returns of talented CB Lardarius Webb and massive rookie DT Terrence Cody will make this defense even more formidable.

The offense will need to step up its game though. RB Ray Rice was held to 43 yards on 21 carries against an excellent Jets defense, but WR Anquan Boldin had a huge Ravens debut with seven catches for 110 yards. Although he’s nursing a thigh injury, Boldin is expected to play Sunday.

The Bengals defensive unit did not play as poorly as the 38 points allowed to New England would indicate, considering the Patriots scored on a kick return and interception return. But Cincy still allowed Tom Brady to throw for 258 passing yards and three scores. Despite the defensive woes, QB Carson Palmer was able to incorporate a slew of players into the offensive act, most notably Chad Ochocinco (12 rec, 159 yds, TD). The Bengals also received nice performances from 2nd-year pro Bernard Scott, rookie WR Jordan Shipley (5 rec, 82 yds) and rookie TE Jermaine Gresham (six catches, TD). Scott gained 50 yards on just nine touches (six rushes, three catches) and could be a big factor on Sunday if RB Cedric Benson (15 rush, 43 yds, lost fumble) isn’t fully healed from his shoulder injury. Benson ran wild on the Ravens last season with 237 yards on 61 carries in the two contests.

The Bengals are 7-3 (SU and ATS) against the Ravens since 2005, including two physical wins in 2009. Cincy won 17-14 in Baltimore, then completed the sweep with a 17-7 home victory.

FoxSheets expects the Ravens to come out on top Sunday.

Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CINCINNATI) - off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses. (41-10 since 1983.) (80.4%, +30 units. Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 09-17-2010, 06:41 PM

Injuries to Jets defense could give edge to Pats

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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (1-0)
at NEW YORK JETS (0-1)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT, Line: New England -3, Total: 38

Division rivals square off Sunday afternoon at the new Meadowlands Stadium. This contest features two offenses in very different states of mind.

The Jets’ offense was atrocious in Monday night’s 10-9 loss to Baltimore. They converted just 1-of-11 third downs, QB Mark Sanchez threw for 3.5 yards per attempt (10-21, 74 yds) and their time of possession was nearly doubled by Baltimore’s (NYJ-21:28, BAL-38:32). New York also committed 14 penalties costing them 125 yards and six first downs against the Ravens.

New England’s offense had no such problems in its 38-24 win over Cincinnati. Tom Brady threw for 258 yards and three touchdowns, with two going to WR Wes Welker, playing despite a major knee injury suffered in January. The Patriots don’t figure to put up 38 points against a Jets defense which allowed the fewest yards in the NFL in 2009, but New York will miss two of its better defensive players -- LB Calvin Pace (fractured foot) and NT Kris Jenkins (torn ACL).

Another storyline is Jets CB Darrelle Revis versus Patriots WR Randy Moss. Revis shut down Moss in the Jets’ 16-9 home win last season, but Revis is not at full speed yet because of his pre-season holdout. Revis played a limited role in the loss to Baltimore instead of covering the team’s top receiver. Coach Rex Ryan is expected to put Revis, despite hamstring tightness, back in his shut-down-corner role with his main duty of shadowing Moss. But even if Revis is effective at stopping Moss, Brady still has plenty of weapons in his arsenal to choose.

Since 1992, the Patriots are 11-6 ATS when the Jets host them in New York. And this time the Patriots get one more day of rest and preparation than the Monday-Night-Football-weary Jets do. These FoxSheets trends point toward another New England victory:

Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY JETS) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, in September games. (83-45 since 1983.) (64.8%, +33.5 units. Rating = 2*).

NY JETS are 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in home games in the first two weeks of the season since 1992. The average score was NY JETS 17.3, OPPONENT 24.3 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 09-17-2010, 06:44 PM

NFL Odds: Jets the play versus Patriots

Eli Manning is looking for payback at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday when he leads the New York Giants against his big brother Peyton and the Indianapolis Colts.

Peyton won when they met in 2006 but Eli leads a Giants offense loaded with receiving talent. To celebrate Manning Bowl II, Sports Interaction is offering a special prop bet to decide who will be the better brother.

Peyton is a 12½-point favorite to post a higher quarterback rating on NFL.com than his little brother. For all the receiving talent at Eli’s disposal, I can’t see the younger Manning pulling out a win on the road. The Colts need a win badly and have the best quarterback of his generation under center ready to deliver. Bet on the Indianapolis Colts as 5½-point favorites and win big with Sports Interaction.

Monday Night Football sees New Orleans head out west to take on a hurting San Francisco team. The 49ers didn’t know what hit them when the Seahawks ran roughshod over them in Seattle. Seriously, did anyone other than Pete Carroll think Mike Williams could play that well? Well now Mike Singletary has to worry about the most potent offense in the NFL.

Drew Brees and the Saints weren’t firing on all cylinders against the Vikings but they still did enough to win. Now against a San Francisco team struggling for air, they have a chance to run up the score. The Saints are tremendous value as 6-point favorites. Bet on New Orleans and win big with Sports Interaction.

Over in the AFC East there’s more than bragging rights at stake on Sunday. The New York Jets entered this season talking up their chances of a trip to the Super Bowl. Now, after just one game, they look ready to crash and burn. Their offense was just dreadful against the Ravens and now they have the Ines Sainz scandal to worry about.

All the headlines for New England meanwhile have focussed on how Tom Brady and Wes Welker are clicking again. Dig a little deeper and this game becomes more complex. For all their offensive woes, the Jets still look nasty on defense, while the Patriots have a potential crisis in the making. Randy Moss is moaning and whining about not getting enough respect.

This could spell disaster for the New England locker room. Combine that with Darrelle Revis in coverage and you have an upset in the making. Bet on the Jets as 2½-point underdogs to win big with Sports Interaction.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-17-2010, 06:44 PM

NFL Odds: Vikings, Dolphins stay 'under'

They took the air out of the football during the first week of the season in the NFL and ‘under’ bettors were dancing in the aisles at sports books throughout Las Vegas.

Time traveled back to the leather helmet era. Week 1 scoring was the second lowest since the league expanded to 32 teams in 2002, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

The 16 games totaled 585 points, or 36.6 points a game. In 2007, the New England Patriots averaged 36.8 points a game. The Week 1 point total was 252 points fewer than the NFL’s one-week scoring record of 837 points set in 2008.

The ‘under’ cashed in 11 of 16 NFL betting games and there were only five teams that scored 30 points or more. Meanwhile there were 21 teams that tallied less than 20 points.

But don’t expect this to be a season long trend. Let’s not forget that last year there were 10 quarterbacks who threw for 4,000 yards. Since expansion to 32 teams in 2002, the lowest opening-week scoring total was in 2006: 553 points. By the time that season ended, the fourth most points in league history at that time had been scored.

However, let’s join the ‘under’ takers with a tasty Week 2 total.

The Minnesota Vikings return home to host the Miami Dolphins after scoring just nine points at New Orleans. Brett Favre wasn’t in sync with his depleted corps of wide receivers and this week he may well be without Percy Harvin. That means the Vikings will have to depend on a steady diet of Adrian Peterson, right, left and up the middle.

Miami’s defense is much improved, but will be tested after holding lowly Buffalo to 10 points on opening day.

The Dolphins have ducked ‘under’ with regularity on the road, turning the trick in 10 of their past 14 games. In addition, they have ended on the low side in six of their last seven on field turf.

Miami has slipped below the limit in 18 of 27 after a SU division road win and in 17 of 24 off a SU win.

Minnesota allowed 78 points in its first three games at **** of America Field last year. In their last five home games they limited the opposition to 46 points and held the Dallas Cowboys to a field goal in the playoffs.

The Dolphins have knuckled ‘under’ at a 10-3 clip in Week 2 and the Vikings have followed suit in 10 of 11 during the second week of the season.

Most offshore books opened this ‘total’ at 42 ½ but it has been bet down to as low as 39. That’s still enough value to recommend an ‘under’ play in a game that could well end in the low 30’s.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-17-2010, 06:45 PM

NFL Betting: Giants and Colts meet in Indy

No team in NFL history has been able to match the Indianapolis Colts’ record of at least 12 victories during the past seven straight seasons.

But that record is in jeopardy this year courtesy of the Houston Texans.

Not only did the Texans upset the Colts, 34-24, as one-point home underdogs last Sunday, but they provided a blueprint on how to accomplish it.

The Texans bashed the Colts on the ground rushing for 257 yards, but they also pounded Peyton Manning knocking him down 10 times while recording two sacks.

The New York Giants have the quality running backs and outstanding pass rushers to follow this same game plan. The matchup is sure to draw plenty of attention being the Sunday night NBC game (5:20 p.m. PT) featuring brothers Peyton and Eli Manning.

The Colts currently are 5-point favorites at Bookmaker.com with the ‘over/under’ at 48.

This is the second matchup between the Manning brothers. The Colts won the first one, 26-21, in Week 1 of the 2006 season as three-point road favorites. The combined 47 points dipped ‘under’ the 47 ½-point total.

Eli Manning threw two touchdown passes to one for Peyton, but Peyton had 272 yards passing, 25 yards more than his brother.

The Colts will need to protect their four-time league MVP better. The Giants have three outstanding pass rushers – Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora and Mathias Kiwanuka. Colts center Jeff Saturday and left tackle Charles Johnson returned from injuries, but were rusty against the Texans. They had real problems with star defensive end Mario Williams, who knocked Manning down eight times.

Manning still completed 40-of-57 passes – both career highs – while throwing for 433 yards and three touchdowns. He could hurt a Giants secondary that has become more ‘read-and-react’ than playing man-to-man press coverage under new defensive coordinator Perry Fewell.

The Giants switched their defensive philosophies and coordinators after surrendering 40 or more points a staggering five times last year.

Trailing 16-14 at halftime, the Giants pulled away in the second half to beat Carolina, 31-18, as 5 ½-point home favorites this past Sunday. The combined 49 points went ‘over’ the 40 ½-point total at NFL betting shops.

Hakeem Nicks, Steve Smith and Mario Manningham combined to haul in 13 of Eli Manning’s throws for 203 yards with Nicks scoring three touchdowns. Carolina ranked No. 4 in pass defense last season.

It was just the third time in their last 12 games the Giants have covered the spread. New York, though, is 23-8 ATS in its past 31 road contests.

Eli Manning probably can’t win a shootout against his brother. So the Giants need to take advantage of the Colts’ run defense, which ranked 24th last year and will be without hard-hitting two-time Pro Bowl safety Bob Sanders. He’s out for the season and his career is in jeopardy after he suffered a ruptured biceps tendon against the Texans.

Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs were mediocre against the Panthers combining for 120 yards on the ground. Only eight of their rushing yards occurred during the first half. The Giants haven’t had a 100-yard rusher since Bradshaw turned the trick last Oct. 11 gaining 110 yards versus Oakland, which ranked 29th in run defense a year ago.

The ‘over’ has cashed in New York’s past six games. The ‘over’ has cashed in six of the Colts’ last eight games.

The Giants have several injuries. Offensive lineman William Beatty is out six-to-eight weeks with a foot injury and starting tight end Kevin Boss also will miss the game after suffering a concussion.

The Colts will be without Sanders and Anthony Gonzalez, their No. 4 wide receiver. He suffered a high ankle sprain last week.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-17-2010, 06:46 PM

NFL Betting: Ravens and Bengals battle

The Baltimore Ravens will have to deal with a much-hyped, trash-talking, 2009 playoff team this week. Again.

One week after dispatching the "Hard Knocks" Jets with a dominating defensive performance, the Ravens take their act on the road to face the defending AFC North champion Cincinnati Bengals at 10 a.m. PT on CBS. Easy Street Sports has installed the Ravens as 2½-point favorites.

In last week's Monday Night game in New York, the Ravens defense put on a show holding the Mark Sanchez-led Jets to 74 passing yards and only six first downs in a 10-9 victory. The Ravens opened the season with a depleted secondary – no Ed Reed, Lardarius Webb or Domonique Foxworth – and were never tested by New York.

That is one thing that is certain to change on Sunday.

While the New England Patriots were cruising to an eventual 38-24 win over the Bengals, the second half of the game belonged to Cincinnati. The Bengals returned to a no-huddle offense that was successful for them last season.

Chad Ochocinco caught 12 balls and three newcomers (rookie Jordan Shipley, Terrell Owens and Jermaine Gresham) caught 18 more, almost entirely in the final 30 minutes. This spreading of the wealth is a luxury the Jets do not have, much to Baltimore's delight in Week 1.

Still, Easy Street Sports has installed Baltimore as 2½-point favorites, a number that is a field goal better than the plus 1 the Ravens were receiving at New York. Along with a total of 40, it is perhaps the most interesting pair of numbers on the NFL betting board.

Baltimore hasn't failed to cover a September game in two years, but the Bengals have won eight of the last 11 meetings, and covered in all eight of the wins, including last year's sweep. Then again, Baltimore had a home-and-away sweep of their own in 2008.

One thing has remained consistent over that time, though. Scoring has been at a premium. The two haven't combined to score more than 40 points since the opening week of the 2007 campaign.

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The Bum's WEEK # 2 NFL BEST BETS + Trends and Indexes - Week 2 (9/19 - 9/20)

The Bum's WEEK # 2 NFL BEST BETS + Trends and Indexes - Week 2 (9/19 - 9/20)

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