NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Bowl Season (12/19 - 1/7)

[Udog]

NCAAF


Tuesday, January 5

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Tips and Trends
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Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets [FOX | 8:00 PM ET]

Iowa: Iowa had a banner regular season, despite the fact they lost 2 of their final 3 games SU. This is the 2nd BCS Orange Bowl game for the Hawkeyes in the past 7 years. With the break in between their bowl game, they were able to get both QB Ricky Stanzi and RB Adam Robinson back from injury. Stanzi had led the Hawkeyes to a perfect 9-0 record before getting hurt and missing the rest of the regular season. Robinson is the leading rusher for the Hawkeyes at 775 rushing YDS including 5 TDs. Defense rules the day for the Hawkeyes, as they rank 11th in total defense in the country. Iowa also only allows 15.5 PPG, and have held 8 of their 12 opponents to 17 PTS or fewer. Stanzi is the team MVP, as he's the true emotional leader of this team. His statistics don't overwhelm you (2,175 passing YDS with 15 TDs against 14 INTs) but he's a proven winner.

Iowa is 4-1 ATS last 5 bowl games as an underdog.
Under is 13-3-1 last 17 non conference games.

Key Injuries - QB Ricky Stanzi (leg) is probable.
RB Adam Robinson (ankle) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21

Georgia Tech (-5, O/U 50.5): Georgia Tech and head coach Paul Johnson have used their spread option offense to their first outright ACC title since 1990. The Yellow Jackets average more than 300 rushing YPG, which ranks them 2nd in the country. Overall, this Yellow Jackets offense averages 35.3 PPG, 11th in the nation. Georgia Tech was 11-2 SU and 8-4 ATS this season. The Yellow Jackets were 6-1 both SU and ATS this year away from home. They were also 4-2 ATS as a singe digit favorite this season. Georgia Tech has a few capable RBs, led by Jonathan Dwyer. Dwyer has nearly 1,350 rushing YDS with 14 TDs this season. QB Josh Nesbitt has rushed for nearly 1,000 YDS himself along with 18 TDs. As a team, Georgia Tech has 46 rushing TDs this season, the 2nd most in the country. Defensively, Georgia Tech has allowed 4 of their past 5 opponents to score at least 27 PTS against them.

Georgia Tech is 8-2 ATS last 10 games overall.
Over is 6-1 last 7 Bowl games.

Key Injuries - LB Melcolm Munroe (leg) is probable.
DT Ben Anderson (knee) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (UNDER - Total of the Day)


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel - Wed. POD


Troy vs. Central Michigan
The Chippewas look to build on their 8-1-2 ATS record in their last 11 games when favored from 1 to 3 points. Central Michigan is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Chippewas favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (-3).

[Udog]

NCAAF


Wednesday, January 6

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What bettors need to know
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GMAC Bowl

Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Troy Trojans (+3, 63)

If you like vertical passing games, you’ll love the GMAC Bowl, which features two quarterbacks who combined for nearly 7,000 yards this season. Central Michigan (11-2) takes on Troy (9-3) in the game before “The Game”.

Line movement

Central Michigan’s spread has fallen from -4 in opening lines to -3.5 and -3, while the total opened at 63.5 points and has dipped just slightly.

Weather/location report

Monday in Mobile, Ala., is expected to be sunny, but with a high of just 45 degrees. While the cold could be beneficial for Central Michigan, the GMAC Bowl is being played less than three hours from Troy’s campus, potentially providing a quasi-home game atmosphere.

The LeFevour Show

Stop Central Michigan’s offense, and you stop Central Michigan. The Chippewas scored 20 points or more in all 11 of their wins and scored 29 or more eight times, but was held to 10 and six points in their two losses (to Arizona and Boston College, respectively).

Which means, stop quarterback Dan LeFevour. The GMAC Bowl marks the end of the magnificent career LeFevour, the all-time FBS leader in TDs with 148.

Compared as a small-school Tim Tebow, the 6-3, 240-pound LeFevour this season threw for 3,043 yards, 27 TD and six INT while also leading the team rushing with 701 yards and 14 TD.

LeFevour’s three-step drop style forces defenses to get to him fast.

His favorite target is playmaking wideout and returner Antonio Brown, who gained 1,020 as a wideout and is a constant threat on returns.

The Levi Show

Troy’s Levi Brown threw for 3,862 yards and 22 TD and leads an offense that ranked No. 3 nationally averaging 478 total yards. The Trojans scored 40 or more points in six of their final eight games.

Troy’s offense is as explosive as they come. The Trojans had a whopping 30 scoring drives of two minutes or less. It has also been bolstered by the emergence of freshman running back Shawn Southward, who took over the starting duties late this season, but rushed for 140 yards on 19 carries in a win over Western Kentucky on November 7.

Coaching change

Central Michigan goes into the game without a head coach, as Butch Jones accepted the opening at Cincinnati. Assistant Steve Stripling was named interim coach for the bowl game. Stripling was the associate head coach-defense and worked mostly with the defensive line. How that will alter the team’s gameplan – if at all – remains to be seen.

Defensive stance

Despite the offensive accolades that Central Michigan is given, its defense actually ranked No. 1 in the MAC in points allowed (17.2), was second in yards allowed (326.7) and the passing defense was solid (207.4). The unit ranked 17th nationally.

Troy’s defense, meanwhile, did just enough in a weak Sun Belt to win. The Trojans were especially poor against the pass, allowing 277 yards per game through the air.

Inexperience in the defensive backfield is a big reason. Senior corner Jorrick Calvin, the only returning starting DB from last year, hasn’t played this season due to academics.

Injury report

Slowing Central Michigan’s passing attack was going to be hard enough as it was, but Troy senior DB Courtland Fuller tore his ACL in the season finale against Louisiana-Lafayette and is out.

Central Michigan comes into the game healed.

Grades report

Troy sophomore wideout Chip Reeves, who had 22 catches for 363 yards, was declared academically ineligible last week.

A common foe

The two teams have one similar opponent. Troy opened its season by losing at Bowling Green 31-14, while Central Michigan won at Bowling Green 24-10 in MAC play.

The Sun Belt was widely regarded as the worst Division-I conference in the nation. Troy passed right through its league schedule, but did not fare well at all in its three non-conference games, all blowout losses.

Central Michigan, also went unbeaten in its conference, but also knocked off Michigan State 29-28 in non-conference play.

Other trends and notes

Troy has won at least a share of the last four Sun Belt championships. Central Michigan has won three of the last four MAC titles.

The over is 10-1 the last 11 games Troy has been underdog.

Troy is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games.

Central Michigan is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games on grass, but Troy is 7-2 ATS on grass in its last nine games.

The under is 4-0 in Central Michigan’s last four games as a favorite at a neutral site.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Write-Up


Wednesday, January 6

GMAC Bowl
Mobile, AL
Last seven GMAC bowls were all decided by 17+ points, with favorites covering all seven; MAC teams lost last three GMAC bowls, are 0-15 in last 15 bowl games. Central Michigan is best MAC team, with 4-year starting QB Lefevour ending stellar career; Chippewas lost their coach to Cincinnati (again) but they chose to play in this bowl rather than Motor City Bowl, so both sides are happy to be here, since Troy is fired up to be in home state. Partly cloudy skies, 33 degrees is the kickoff forecast. Dogs are 21-10-1 vs spread in bowls this year; under is 18-13. MAC favorites are 2-7 vs spread in non-league games. Sun Belt underdogs are 11-16 vs spread. Average total in eight-year history of this game is 67.8

[Udog]

NCAAF


Wednesday, January 6

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Tips and Trends
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Troy Trojans vs. Central Michigan Chippewas [ESPN | 7:00 PM ET]

Troy: Troy rebounded well from their 0-2 SU start to finish the season 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS. A big reason why is their offense, as they've averaged over 41 PPG in their past 6 games. Senior QB Levi Brown might be the best QB you've never heard of, as his 3,850 total YDS are the most in the history of the Sun Belt Conference. The dual threat QB was 2nd in the country with 322 passing YPG. Freshman RB Shawn Southward has 10 TDs this season which ranks him 5th amongst all freshman in the country. The Trojans defense must improve, as they are allowing over 35 PPG in their past 3 games. Troy was 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS away from home this season. Troy was 1-2 both SU and ATS this season as the listed underdog. The Trojans were especially adept at scoring fast, as they had 30 scoring drives less that 2 minutes this season. Defensively, the Trojans need to improve their passing defense, as they allowed more than 270 YPG this year.

Troy is 8-2 ATS last 10 games overall.
Over is 10-1 last 11 games as an underdog.

Key Injuriews - RB D.J. Taylor (foot) is probable.
LB Jacoby Thomas (foot) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24

Central Michigan (-2, O/U 63): Central Michigan was enjoying a dream season as they were ranked in the Top 25 for the first time in school history and playing in a January Bowl game. Then all Chippewas received news that head coach Butch Jones would be moving on to another school. Associate coach Steve Stripling will be the interim head coach today for the Chippewas. Central Michigan finished the season at 11-2 SU and 9-3 ATS this season. The Chippewas played 8 games away from home, going 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS this year. Today represents the smallest amount the Chippewas have been favored by all season. Nobody has scored more TDs in their D1 career than Senior QB Dan LeFevour, who has 147 combined TDs including 41 this year. The Chippewas averaged 33 PPG this season, while only allowing 17 PPG. Today's bowl game represents the first time since 1996 that the Chippewas have played in a bowl game outside of Michigan.

Central Michigan is 25-9-2 ATS last 36 games as a favorite.
Under is 4-0 last 4 neutral site games as a favorite.

Key Injuries - DE Sam Williams (back) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 34 (Side of the Day)


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Thursday, January 7

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What bettors need to know
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BCS Championship

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Texas Longhorns (+3.5, 45.5)

It’s cold outside. Anyone ready to sweat?

The National Championship Game is poised to deliver.

Alabama and Texas are evenly matched, with coaching staffs that are very familiar with each other.

This isn’t Ohio State-Florida or LSU-Ohio State. This is a game between two elite teams with comparable amounts of NFL talent on both sides of the ball. Neither team is going to be overwhelmed by the other’s speed, athleticism or talent. And neither staff is going to get out-schemed.

“It's really funny when you start looking at the defenses," Texas coach Mack Brown told the Associated Press. "They're exactly the same. The calls are the same. That's the positive for us. The negative is that both staffs will be trying to out-think what the other one is going to do, because we know so much about each other."

Like the line suggests, the game appears destined to be decided by around one score. A wider margin would be a mild surprise, and anything remotely resembling a blowout would be a complete shock.

Crank up the AC, boys and girls, because the BCS National Championship Game has all the makings of a real sweater.

The Line

Alabama opened up as a 4-point favorite in Las Vegas and as high as -5 at several offshore sites.

“If the game was played this week, Alabama would have been -7,” oddsmaker Pete Korner told *********** directly after the opening line went up in early December. “But we’ve seen it so many times, these teams playing their best football at the end of the season, only to have a month off before the bowl game. It’s a momentum stopper.

“Even though, [the line] went up to just under a touchdown, we still believe we will have good two-way action at number below six by kickoff.”

Korner was spot on. Early action on the Crimson Tide pushed the number up to as high as -6 in the middle of December. But, as of late Monday afternoon, it was back down to -4, with a bunch of -3.5s available.

It might get down to -3 by Thursday’s 8:35 p.m. ET kickoff, but don’t expect it to go any lower. Likewise, Texas backers shouldn’t expect to get any more than +4 at the absolute most.

Moneyline players are looking at laying -170 on Alabama and will be getting +150 on Texas.

The Total

It opened at 44.5 and has moved up slightly. On Monday, it was up to 45 with several 45.5s available.

The Crimson Tide went 6-6-1 over/under with an average total of 46.07.

Alabama averages 31.69 points per game and allows just 11. Against the three top statistical defenses it faced—Florida, Virginia Tech and South Carolina—the Tide averaged 28.6 points.

Texas averages 40.69 points per game and allows 15.15.

The Longhorns went 6-7 over/under with an average total of just under eight touchdowns, 55.88. Against the two toughest defenses it faced—Oklahoma and Nebraska--Texas averaged 14.5 points per game.

Teams that gave them trouble

Alabama had a tough time putting away Tennessee and South Carolina at home. Quarterback Greg McElroy struggled in both of those games, throwing two interceptions, no touchdowns and passing for just 212 yards combined.

South Carolina and Tennessee also had more first downs than Alabama in their close losses to the Tide.

Texas struggled in its three rivalry games, nipping Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Texas A&M by a combined score of 99-76. The Red Raiders, Sooners and Aggies were the only three teams to pass for more than 300 yards against the Longhorns.

The Longhorns also had trouble with Nebraska, especially slowing down defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. Alabama’s mammoth defensive tackle Terrence Cody isn’t as athletic as Suh, but he is a force in the middle.

Statistically speaking

Stats-wise, it’s extremely equal with both squads among the national leaders in multiple categories on offense and defense.

Alabama is No. 2 in total defense. Texas is No. 3. The Tide has a better rushing attack, led by Heisman winner Mark Ingram. The Longhorns are more potent through the air, led by Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley.

But there are a couple of statistical mismatches that could be a factor.

Texas has one of the best kickoff return units in the nation. Featuring Shipley, the Horns average 27.8 yards per return, fourth most in the nation.

The Crimson Tide has been vulnerable on kickoffs and allowed returns for touchdowns to Virginia Tech and Florida International early in the season. Alabama’s kickoff-return defense ranks 116th in the nation.

The Longhorn pass rush is also superior to Alabama’s, averaging three sacks per game.

Quarterbacks

Advantage Texas, but not by much.

McCoy has much more big-game experience than McElroy and will be starting his fourth bowl game. McElroy will be starting his first.

McCoy’s also the better runner out of the two, although McElroy looked nimble in the SEC Championship Game against Florida.

McCoy is 17th in the nation in passing efficiency, with a 27-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio. McElroy is 26th in pass efficiency with a 19-to-9 TD-to-INT ratio.

Key Notes

• There are no significant injuries or suspensions for either team.
• Heisman trophy winners are 1-6 in BCS National Championship Games.
• Both teams have reliable kickers, with Texas’ Hunter Lawrence converting on 22-of-25 attempts and Alabama’s Leigh Tiffin connecting on 29-of-33 attempts.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Write-Up


Thursday, January 7

BCS National Championship game
Pasadena
Texas won its last five bowl games, with four wins by 3 or less points; Alabama is 3-2 in its last five bowls (1-1 under Saban). Saban is 4-6 in bowls in his career; Brown is 12-6. Longhorns have a senior QB, Tide has a freshman. Coaches met once when Saban was at LSU; Texas (-10) won 35-20 in '02 Cotton Bowl. Texas has nine seniors back on offense, Alabama nine back on defense. Underdogs are now 22-10-1 vs spread in this bowl season. Under is 19-14.

Alabama is 8-5 vs spread in last 13 games as favorite of less than 10 pts; Texas is 10-5 as underdog with Brown as coach, with nine outright wins. SEC favorites are 21-12 vs spread in non-conference games this year; Big 12 underdogs are 4-4. Crimson Tide had only two wins this year by less than 10 points-- 12-10 over Tennessee (blocked FG on last play), 26-21 in rivalry game over Auburn. Texas also had two close games, 13-12 in Big 12 title game over Nebraska, 16-13 in rivalry game over Oklahoma.

To me, this game is a tossup, so why not take the points?


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel - Thur. POD


Texas vs. Alabama
The Longhorns look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 neutral site games as an underdog. Texas is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Longhorns favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Texas (+4).

[Udog]

NCAAF


Thursday, January 7

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Tips and Trends
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Texas Longhorns vs. Alabama Crimson Tide [FOX | 8:00 PM ET]

Longhorns: Texas is playing in this BCS Championship game thanks to a single second. Texas finished the season 13-0 SU but were only 5-7-1 ATS. The Longhorns were 3-3-1 ATS away from home this year. Today marks the 1st time all season the Longhorns are the listed underdog, and it's only the 3rd time this season they are facing less than a double digit point spread. QB Colt McCoy leads an offense that was 14th in the country in passing yards with 279 YPG. McCoy threw over 3,500 YDS while completing better than 70% of his passes. McCoy also had 30 total TDs this year, and finished as the 2nd leading rusher on the team. WR Jordan Shipley is McCoy's main target, as he had over 1,300 YDS with 106 REC and 11 TDs for the season. Defensively, the Longhorns only allowed 251 YPG, which ranked them 3rd in the country. They also allowed less than 63 YPG on the ground, the fewest in the nation.

Texas is 3-7 ATS last 10 Bowl games.
Under is 8-2 last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.

Key Injuries - OL Mason Walters (foot) is doubtful.
DL Calvin Howell (unknown) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20

Crimson Tide (-4, O/U 46): Alabama will be playing in their NCAA record 58th bowl game today, with the national championship at stake. Alabama snapped Florida's 22 game winning streak in winning the SEC Championship and punching their ticket for tonight. The Crimson Tide are 13-0 SU and 8-5 ATS this season. Alabama is 5-1 ATS away from home this year. Alabama is also 3-0 ATS involving any single digit point spread. Heisman Trophy RB Mark Ingram ran for over 1,500 YDS and had 15 TDs this season. Overall, the Crimson Tide had the 12th best rushing attack in the country, at 215 YPG. The biggest reason for Alabama going undefeated this year is their defense. The Crimson Tide allowed the fewest points in the nation at 11 PPG. This Tide defense was also 2nd in the country allowing only 241 YPG. 10 of the Crimson Tide's 13 opponents were held under 20 PTS this season. Alabama has never beaten Texas in 8 lifetime opportunities.

Alabama is 5-1 ATS last 6 vs. Big 12.
Under is 4-0 last 4 games following an ATS win.

Key iNjuries - DB Rod Woodson (virus) is questionable.
LB Rolando McClain (virus) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21 (UNDER - Total of the Day)


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