NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Bowl Season (12/19 - 1/7)

[Udog]

NCAAF


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What bettors need to know: Poinsettia Bowl and Hawaii Bowl
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Wednesday, December 23

Poinsettia Bowl

Utah Utes at California Golden Bears (-3.5, 52)

The fifth annual Poinsettia Bowl, sponsored by the San Diego County Credit Union, kicks off Wednesday evening at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego when Utah meets California in a battle of the WAC and the PAC. The game is televised on ESPN.

Game time temperature is expected to be in the low-to-mid 50s, with a 10 percent chance of rain.

Bowl history

California is 10-8-1 all time in bowl games, including 8-2 straight up and 5-5 against the spread since 1990, including 1-4 ATS when facing an opponent off a loss. The Bears beat the Miami Hurricanes 24-17 as 10-point favorites in the Emerald Bowl last season.

Utah is 11-3 all time in bowl games, including 9-3 SU and ATS as a bowler since 1992 and 6-1 ATS as a dog. The Utes are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in postseason games this decade, including last year’s 31-17 win over Alabama as 10-point dogs in the Sugar Bowl.

Utah hasn’t lost a bowl game as a member of the Mountain West Conference and owns the nation’s longest bowl win streak at eight.

The first three Poinsettia Bowls saw the games play to an average combined total score of 64 points per game. Last year the trend reversed when TCU edged Boise State, 17-16.

California leads the all time series 4-2. Utah won the last meeting, 31-24, in Salt Lake City in 2003. Utah has won two of the last three games.

The Bears have played in San Diego in bowl games twice in recent years, losing to Texas Tech, 45-31 as 11-point favorites in the 2004 Holiday Bowl and beating Texas A&M, 45-10, as 4-point favorites in the 2006 Holiday Bowl.

Cal is 2-0 against Mountain West Conference teams under head coach Jeff Tedford in bowls, beating BYU, 35-28, as 7-point favorites in the 2005 Las Vegas Bowl and Air Force, 42-36, as 4.5-point favorites in the 2007 Armed Forces Bowl.

Ute need to know

Utah QB’s Wynn and Terrance Cain have split time under center for the Utes, with Cain taking over full-time duties four games ago. Cain has completed 63.7 percent of his passes for 1624 yards, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions. Wynn owns a 54.5 completion percentage, good for 991 yards, five TDs and three INTs.

Senior Davis Reed (75 receptions for 1085 yards and 5 TDs) teams with JR Jereme Brooks (49 catches for 620 yards and 6 TDs) to form the receiving corps.

The Utes lost their best offensive player four weeks into the season when RB Matt Asiata blew out his knee. Eddie Wide has filled his shoes with aplomb, rushing for 1032 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Unbearable

For the fifth straight year California ended the season with a thud. After opening the last five seasons 16-2 in their first three games, they have closed 9-11 in their final four contests.

A disappointing 42-10 season-ending loss to Washington bumped the Bears from the Sun Bowl (as the league’s No. 3 team) to the Poinsettia Bowl. The 32-point margin was the largest victory by the Huskies this season.

Star RB Jahvid Best, who missed the final three regular-season games due to a concussion, has been ruled out. TB Shane Vereen has carried the burden. Vereen has rushed for 830 yards and 10 TDs.

QB Kevin Riley has been hot-and-cold this season. Riley has completed 54.6 percent of his passes for 2636 yards while tossing 17 TDs and six picks.

Salute

The 24 seniors on the Utah squad will take the field representing the winningest class in school history, recording 39 victories since the start of the 2006 season.

"We're definitely not going to take this bowl game lightly, especially for the seniors and the legacy they left here," freshman QB Jordan Wynn said. "We've got to send them out right."

Handy Andy

Cal offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig anchored the same position with Utah last season.

"It will be lots of fun. Andy Ludwig is a great friend of ours. He has a lot of packages and a great imagination for the offensive side of the ball. So we have to be prepared for all that,” said Utah senior LB Stevenson Sylvester.

Did you know

Mountain West Conference teams are 0-3 SU and ATS versus Pac-10 teams in bowl games the last two years.

Pac-10 bowlers are 10-2 SU and ATS in bowl games the last two seasons, but only 3-13 ATS as favorites versus an opponent off a loss since 1997.

Bowl teams that were undefeated last season are 8-4 ATS.


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Thursday, December 24

Hawaii Bowl

Southern Methodist Mustangs vs. Nevada Wolfpack (-13.5, 72.5)

How they got here

The Mustangs entered the season on a 17-game C-USA losing streak, but they finished 6-2 in conference, including an outright win over eventual champ East Carolina.

The win over the Pirates was SMU’s lone victory against a bowl bound foe. Their other five FBS wins came against teams that were a combined 19-41 straight up.

Nevada shook off a disappointing 0-3 start to go 8-1 down the stretch with their lone loss was an ATS win at Boise State.

The Wolfpack beat two bowl teams – Fresno State and Idaho – by a combined margin of 122-59. But the squad’s other two tries against bowl bound clubs both resulted in double-digit defeats.

SMU scouting report

The headlines here are all about SMU head coach June Jones returning to his old stomping grounds in Hawaii, where he won a national coach of the year award and took the Warriors all the way to a BCS Bowl following their undefeated 2007 regular season.

The real story is that SMU finally ended one of the longest bowl droughts in FBS football, dating all the way back to their ‘death penalty’ verdict for numerous NCAA violations back in the 1980s.

Jones’ offense is led by frosh QB Kyle Padron, who drove the Mustangs to a 4-1 record after Bo Levi Mitchell got hurt. Mitchell is healthy now, but he hasn’t won his job back.

Emmanuel Sanders caught 91 balls in this pass-happy offense, but RB Shawnbrey McNeal gave them real balance with more than 1,200 yards on the ground. Linebacker Chase Kennemer led the team in tackles, tackles for loss and fumble recoveries.

The Nevada story

Nevada has been a perennial bowl team in recent years, making its fifth consecutive bowl appearance. The team lost its bowl games in each of the last three years, including a seven-point loss as a favorite against Maryland last year in the Humanitarian Bowl.

The Wolfpack’s lone bowl victory this decade came right here at the Hawaii Bowl in 2005, a 49-48 OT thriller against UCF, but they didn’t cover the pointspread as 2.5 point favorites.
The Wolfpack were a dominant rushing team this year, leading the nation with a whopping 4,337 yards on the ground. Nevada also led the country in rushing yards per attempt by a wide margin, gaining 7.6 yards per attempt. The No. 2 team in college football finished with 6.0 yards per carry - a clear indication of the big-play ability that Nevada enjoys from its running game.

The Wolfpack offensive line felt spurned, after the unit failed to receive a single All-WAC first team selection.

“Some of the offensive linemen are kind of mad about the first-team thing,” running back Vai Taua told reporters. “I think they definitely want to get out there and hit some people."

Nevada’s defense struggled against the pass this year, ranking 114th in pass efficiency and 119th in passing yards allowed.

Key injuries

Nevada has a three-headed rushing attack with QB Colin Kaepernick and RBs Vai Taua and Luke Lippincott each gaining more than 1000 yards on the ground. But Taua flunked out of school and was ruled academically ineligible for the bowl game. Lippincott has a toe injury that will force him to miss the game as well.

Sophomore RB Lampford Mark and frosh RB Mike Ball have big shoes to fill for this one.

Pointspread movement

Nevada opened as a 12-point favorite, but wiseguy money immediately poured in on the Wolfpack, driving the line as high as -15. Over the last few days, due to some key injury information, the money has been coming the other way, pushing the current number down to Nevada -13.5.

The total opened at 73, but the injury info has affected that number as well, with the current total sitting at 72.5.


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[pm530]

NCAAF
Write-up


Tuesday, December 22

Las Vegas Bowl
Oregon State coach Riley is 5-0 in bowls; Pac-10 teams are 23-10 SU in bowls last six years, 10-1 last two years. BYU is in Las Vegas Bowl for fifth year in row; they're 2-3 in last five bowls, 1-2 as underdog- overall, BYU is 9-17-1 in bowl games. Mountain West teams won 10 of last 14 bowls the last three years.

Oregon State won four of last five games, covered seven of last eight, but for second year in row, their loss to archrival Oregon cost them a spot in Rose Bowl; they scored 31+ points in six of last seven games, are 7-0 if they allow less than 28 points. BYU scored 35 ppg in losing last four in a row; they got crushed in their two losses this year, 54-28 by Florida State, 38-7 to TCU, both at home. Cougars beat UNLV 59-21 here on October 10.

Normally, a team playing in same bowl fifth year in row would be a red flag, but this is Las Vegas; no one minds being there. Oregon State might be disappointed not playing in Rose Bowl. Mountain West underdogs are 9-7 vs spread in non-league games. Pac-10 favorites are 7-7.

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[Udog]

NCAAF


Tuesday, December 22

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Tips and Trends
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Brigham Young Cougars vs. Oregon St. Beavers [ESPN | 8:00 PM ET]

Cougars: BYU is 10-2 SU this season, with both losses coming in blowout fashion to ranked opponents. BYU is also a staggering 6-0 away from home, including 4-2 ATS. Today will be the 3rd time this season the Cougars will be an underdog. They lost to TCU at home, and beat Oklahoma on a neutral field as 22 point underdogs. Senior QB Max Hall will be playing the final college game of his career tonight. Hall has thrown for more than 3,350 YDS while accumulating 32 TDs against 14 INTs. Most importantly, Hall is the all time winningest QB in BYU history with 31 wins. Hall leads an offense that averages nearly 35 PPG for the season. Defensively, BYU only gives up 21.7 PPG, and is particularly tough against the run. The Cougars rank 23rd in the country at stopping the run. This is the 5th consecutive time that BYU has played in the Las Vegas Bowl.

BYU is 1-4 ATS last 5 games as an underdog.
Under is 16-3 last 19 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.

Key Injuries - DB Garett Nicholson (grades) is out.
LB Terrance Hooks (knee) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24

Beavers (-2.5, O/U 58.5): Oregon St. and Coach Riley are known as a great bowl team. They will put that perception on the line against BYU tonight. The Beavers had a chance to play in the Rose Bowl, but came 4 points short of beating their rival Oregon. Despite their last loss, the Beavers have won 7 of their last 8 games ATS. For the season, Oregon St. is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS away from home. Today represents the 3rd time all season the Beavers have been favored away from home. The Beavers are really playing well on offense, as they've scored more than 30 PTS in 4 straight games, and 6 of their past 7 games. QB Sean Canfield has thrown for more than 3,100 YDS while completing 70% of his passes. The Rodgers brothers have combined to score 32 TDs this season. Defensively, the Beavers have held 4 of their past 5 opponents to 21 PTS or fewer.

Oregon St. is 6-1 ATS last 7 bowl games.
Under is 4-1 last 5 non-conference games.

Key Injuries - CB Tim Clark (ankle) is questionable.
DT Mitchel Hunt (knee) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 34 (Side of the Day)


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Wednesday, December 23

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Tips and Trends
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Utah Utes at California Golden Bears [ESPN| 8:00 PM ET]

Utah: Utah has enjoyed much success in bowl games of late, going a perfect 8-0 SU their last 8 bowl games. That's the longest current bowl winning streak in the country. Coach Whittingham has yet to lose a bowl game as a head coach. Utah enters the evening 9-3 SU on the season and ranked #23 in the country. Despite their success this year, the Utes are only 5-7 ATS on the season. They are 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS away from home this season. Utah is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS as an underdog this year. QB Jordan Wynn will be making a homecoming of sorts, as the freshman QB played high school football in the area. Wynn has started the past 4 games for Utah, and the offense has only averaged 324 YPG over his past 3 starts. The Utes have only scored more than 24 PTS in 2 of their 6 road games this season. Utah has held 7 of their past 9 opponents to less than 20 PTS.

Utah is 6-1 ATS last 7 bowl games.

Under is 4-1 last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.

Key Injuries - WR John Peel (foot) is questionable.
DB Victor Spikes (hand) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20

California (-3, O/U 52): The Golden Bears finished the season at 8-4 SU and 6-6 ATS. They lost badly to Washington in their season finale. Had they won that game against Washington, they would be at the Sun Bowl facing Oklahoma, so some question the attitude of California heading into this game. The Golden Bears enter tonight with streaks of 2-2 SU over their past 4 games, as well as 2-4 ATS their last 6 games. Cal is 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS away from home this season. Cal is 2-4 ATS this year as a favorite of less than a TD. QB Kevin Riley has been rather inconsistent this year, but has thrown for over 2,600 YDS with 17TDs against only 6 INTs. Cal has averaged over 40 PPG in their 8 wins, while only averaging 7.5 PPG in their 4 losses this year. Defensively, the Golden Bears have given up at least 28 PTS in 3 of their past 4 games.

California is 3-13 ATS last 16 games as a favorite up to a field goal.
Over is 5-1 last 6 Bowl games.

Key Injuries - RB Jahvid Best (concussion) is out.
OL Matt Summers-Gavin (concussion) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (UNDER - Total of the Day)


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Write-Up


Wednesday, December 23

Poinsettia Bowl
Utah won its last eight bowl games (were underdog in two of last four), scoring 32.8 ppg in last five; California won last four bowls, scoring 41.8 ppg. Bears' offensive coordinator is Ludwig, who spent last four years as Utah's OC, so Cal has an edge there, but all four Cal losses were by 17+ points- they lost back/back games 42-3/30-3 this year. Utah's losses are to Oregon by 7, TCU by 27, BYU by 3 (ot).

Utes have new QB and two new coordinators from LY's team, but they get fired up playing BCS schools that get preferential treatment in world of college football. Bears' best player (RB Best) isn't playing here after a severe concussion back in November.

Utah played in this bowl two years ago, beating Navy 35-32; Cal played here in Holiday Bowl three years ago, beating Texas A&M 45-10. Last two Poinsettia Bowls were decided by total of four points. Favorites are 2-2 vs spread in this bowl, with average total, 45.0.

Mountain West bowl teams are 11-4 SU in last 15 bowls; MWC dogs are 10-7 vs spread in non-league games. Pac-10 bowl teams are 23-11 SU last 6+ years, 10-2 last 2+; Pac-10 bowl favorites are 7-8. Utah is 2-0 as a bowl underdog. Cal is 2-3 in last five games as a bowl favorite.

[pm530]

NCAAF
Write-up


Thursday, December 24

Hawai'i Bowl

June Jones returns to paradise with an SMU team playing in bowl for first time since 1984; Mustangs are 6-1 vs spread as an underdog in '09, and dogs are 5-0 vs spread in bowls so far this year. Jones was 3-1 in his last four bowls with Hawai'i, scoring 41 ppg. Nevada's two best RBs are suspended for this game; Wolf Pack is playing in its fifth straight bowl, losing last three, allowing 33.5 ppg (average total, 58.5).

Nevada won here 49-48 in 2005; they come here to play conference rival Hawai'i. Wolf Pack were 0-3 at one point this year, losing to Colorado St 35-20, a bad loss, but then they won eight in row before losing 44-33 at Boise State in regular season finale. SMU is 7-5 despite losing two OT games (@ Washington State, Navy); the losing team scored 30+ points in four of its 12 games.

Underdog is 11-1 vs spread this season in SMU games. Conference USA underdogs are 7-11 vs spread on road. C-USA bowl teams are 14-20 the last seven years, 7-10 the last three. WAC teams lost seven of last nine bowls the last two years. WAC favorites are 5-2 vs spread in non-league, games, 2-2 away from home.

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[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel - Sat. POD


North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh
The Panthers look to build on their 7-3 ATS record in their last 10 games as a favorite. Pittsburgh is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Panthers favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-2 1/2).

[Udog]

NCAAF


Saturday, December 26


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What bettors need to know
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Little Caesars Bowl

Ohio Bobcats vs. Marshall Thundering Herd (+3, 49)

Line movements

The line opened with Ohio as a 3 to 3.5 point favorite and hasn’t wavered much. The Bobcats are currently favored by 3. The total opened at 50 and dipped slightly to 49.

The skinny

Ohio won seven of its last eight regular season games to make it to the MAC Championship against Central Michigan. The team lost by 10 points to the Chippewas to finish 9-4 on the season.

The Bobcats’ four losses came against UConn, Tennessee, Kent State and the previously mentioned MAC Championship loss to Central Michigan (finished 9-4 ATS on the season).

This will be the second bowl appearance in the last four years but just their third since 1968. They lost to Southern Miss in the 2006 GMAC Bowl 28-7. In that game, they were 3 for 15 on third downs, completed just 15 of 37 passes and had 22 carries for 47 yards.

It was a classic case of bowl first-timers that were psyched to be in a bowl and satisfied with the appearance.

Marshall finished the season 6-6 and is playing in its first bowl game since 2004. Despite the bowl appearance, Marshall fired its head coach and interim Rick Minter will be coaching the bowl game. West Virginia assistant Doc Holliday will take the reigns when this game concludes.

How will that affect the coaches, many of which will move on to different jobs after this game?

We know Minter really wanted the job, so will his preparation be thorough now that he has been passed over? Hard to know for sure but it’s definitely not a positive development.

It was a season of “what could’ve been” for the Thundering Herd, losing multiple close games to quality football teams. Three of their six losses (all to bowl teams) came by a TD or less. The chance was there to have a much better season.

Marshall’s Marshall

Marshall doesn’t boast great offensive rankings by any means, but the program does have one dangerous weapon: Darius Marshall. The running back rushed for over 1000 yards for the second consecutive year and has 11 touchdowns and a 5.1 yards per carry average.

Darius Marshall has the potential to have a big day against this Ohio defense. The Bobcats’ last four opponents all rushed for over 100 yards.

Ohio’s offense

After starting the season 2-2, the Bobcats settled their quarterback controversy and reeled off seven wins in eight games. QB Theo Scott finished with 2,258 passing yards and 19 touchdowns along with three rushing touchdowns.

Scott was banged up late in the year and was not at 100 percent for the MAC Championship game. He should be healthy for this one.

The Bobcats don’t have the strongest running attack – their leading rusher finished with 591 yards and 3 TDs.

It may not matter how strong Ohio’s running game is if Marshall’s defense plays like it has in the last four weeks of the regular season. The unit allowed an average of 32.8 points and 403 offensive yards over the stretch. It’s no coincidence the Herd finished 1-3 straight up and against the spread.

Critical question

The main question for nearly every Bowl game is: which team wants to be here more? You can usually find some value if you can figure this out.

Is it the Bobcats, who lost the MAC Championship game which, had they won, would’ve put them in a more prestigious bowl game?

Or is it the Thundering Herd, who lost four of their last six and are playing under an interim/lame duck head coach?

Marshall hasn’t gone bowling since 2004 and Ohio since 2006, so both teams should be excited to be in the postseason. We’ll find out for sure on Saturday.

Trends

These two haven’t met since 2004 but Ohio is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

Ohio is 4-0 ATS in its last four games and 7-2 ATS in its last nine nonconference games.

Marshall is 5-1 ATS in its last six bowl games but just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 nonconference games and 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. MAC.

The under is 5-1 in the Bobcats’ last six games as favorites. The Thundering Herd also played under the total in eight of their last 10 games overall..

Weather

This one is being played indoors at Ford Field in Detroit.



Meineke Car Care Bowl

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (-2.5, 44)

The preservation of college football tradition continues on Boxing Day when the sixth best ACC team takes on a Big East team that wishes its season was over.

North Carolina plays No. 17 Pittsburgh Panthers in the Meinke Car Care Bowl, which was formally called the Continental Tire Bowl, and before that called the Queen City Bowl.

The Odds

The spread for the game opened at -3 in favor of Pitt and has since moved a half point down to -2.5.

The Panthers posted a decent 7-4 ATS record this year, but they are 0-4 ATS in their last four bowl games. Last year's appearance in the Sun Bowl produced a yawning 3-0 loss to Oregon State.

North Carolina was 6-5 ATS this year, but ended the season on a 4-1 ATS run.

This is North Carolina's third appearance in this bowl game and the program is still searching for its first victory. In last year's contest, the Heels lost 31-30 to West Virginia, but covered as 2.5-point dogs.

The total is set at 44.5 at most sportsbooks. North Carolina is 6-5 on totals this year with its last three games going over by an average of eight points.

Pitt has been one of the best under teams this season, even though it ranked 16th in points scored per game at 33.2.

Consensus opinion for this game is on Pitt to cover, about 65 percent, while thoughts on the total are split down the middle.

Does Pitt give a Car Care?

On paper Pitt appears to be the better team with the Big East having one of its better years and UNC finishing in the middle of the pack in the ACC. But you can't blame the Panthers for a lack of motivation going into this bowl game after closing out the season with two heartbreaking losses and missing out on the Sugar Bowl.

The coaching staff has done its best to motivate its players with "Let's Be Different, End With 10" signs all over their practice field and head coach Dave Wannstedt claims that his players care.

"Our kids are talking about [the bowl game] and they have started to watch the tape, so now I can sense that our guys are getting into the challenges."

Still, it’s hard to ignore those last two setbacks. They loss a tight 19-16 game to West Virginia on the road and their one-point loss to the Bearcats was the product of a blown 31-10 lead and a missed extra point attempt at the end of the game.

Does Location Matter?

The Tar Heels experienced their own setback to close the year, losing by one point to NC State, but they have the benefit of playing close to home with this game being held in Charlotte. Although they came up short in their previous two appearances in this bowl and some early results this year seem to downplay the effects of home-field advantage.

Central Florida’s lost to Rutgers in the St Petersburg Bowl, while Southern Miss fell to MTSU in the New Orleans Bowl.

Still, North Carolina does have the personal to pull off a win. UNC has the No. 6 ranked defense in the nation and the team was particularly good at stopping the run allowing only 92.8 yards per game.

Statement for 2010

Even with all of this year's disappointments, Panthers backers can find some solace in the fact that the star player on Pitt is only a freshman with much to look forward to. RB Dion Lewis has already been awarded several freshman of the year honors after rushing for 1635 yards and 16 TDs.

A big performance against the Tar Heels would jumpstart his 2010 Heisman Campaign.

For North Carolina QB T.J. Yates has everything to lose in this game. He has had an up and down year with a 12-to-14 TD to INT ratio and the Junior will need to have a decent game to save his job for next year.

Everyone expects talented freshman Bryn Renner to start next year.



Emerald Bowl

Boston College Eagles vs. Southern California Trojans (-7, 44)

What is USC’s mindset coming into the Emerald Bowl?

That’s the No. 1 question facing handicappers betting Saturday’s tilt between the embattled Trojans (8-4, 3-9 ATS) and an overachieving Boston College squad.

For starters, there’s no way the Trojans, who have played in seven consecutive BCS bowls, could be 100 percent motivated for the Emerald Bowl. Then, an off-the-field controversy that may rule out star tailback Joe McKnight pops up, in addition to three other key players being ruled ineligible. It all spells distraction.

But it’s still S.C. Surely Pete Carroll has stockpiled enough talent to overwhelm a middle-of-the-pack ACC squad, right?

On the other side of the ball, Boston College defied downtrodden preseason expectations to go 8-4 (6-5 ATS). During a depressing offseason, the Eagles coach was fired, their best defender was diagnosed with cancer and their starting quarterback was kicked off the team.

But longtime defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani took over as head coach and pieced together a solid campaign that has B.C. bowling for a ninth straight season.

Without question, the Eagles are the more excited team to be in San Francisco.

Injuries, suspensions

USC: McKnight, the Trojans’ leading rusher and most dynamic playmaker, is a huge factor. Signs point to him not playing Saturday, but nothing was official as of Tuesday.

He didn’t travel with the team when it left for San Francisco on Monday. Pete Carroll released a statement on the Trojans’ Web site that said, "[McKnight] has some paperwork he needs to do and it's best for him to stay in L.A. so he can be available to finish it. We don’t know right now how long this will take.”

With Southern Cal already under investigation by the NCAA, it’s hard to believe they’d take any chances with playing McKnight.

Plus, the Trojans are deep at running back, with C.J. Gable and Allen Bradford capable backs. Bradford, however, missed practice time this week after tweaking his knee. But he is expected to play.

Starting tight end Anthony McCoy and starting offensive tackle Tyron Smith, a pair of honorable mention Pac-10 players, were among three players ruled ineligible Monday.

The Trojans also will be without starting senior cornerback Josh Pinkard. Sophomore T.J. Bryant could get his first career start in place of Pinkard. Shareece Wright, who hasn’t played this season due to eligibility issues, also is expected to see action.
Boston College: The Eagles have no significant injuries.

Line movement

The Trojans opened up as 9-point favorites. The line didn’t move much until the McKnight controversy revved up over the weekend and was followed by the players, including two starters, being ruled ineligible.

As of Tuesday, the line was down to -7.5 at most online books and even -7 at the Las Vegas Hilton.

The total opened up at 43.5 and has gone up slightly to 44, with a few 44.5’s out there.

USC went 5-7 under with an average total of 49.75. The Trojans averaged 26.7 points per game and allowed 20.5 points.

The total of 44 is the lowest total on a USC game this season.

Boston College went 5-6 under with an average total just over 43. The Eagles scored 25.8 points and allowed 19.4.

Quarterbacks

USC’s Matt Barkley: The heralded true freshman went through more growing pains than some expected, throwing 13 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He did show some moxie in leading a game-winning drive at Ohio State, but overall it’s been an up-and-down year for Barkley.

However, coaches often say freshmen benefit the most from the additional bowl practices. “"If I play well . . . then we'll get that solid victory. We'll be able to get that confidence back, which should help our team as a whole,” Barkley told the Los Angeles Times.

Boston College’s Dave Shinskie: This time last season, the 25-year-old Shinskie was playing minor league baseball. He hadn’t played football since 2003.

Like Barkley, he’s a pocket passer but had an inconsistent season, throwing 14 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.

Statistically speaking

USC: Strengths: Pass efficiency defense 16th; Scoring defense 16th; Scoring defense 22; Punt returns 7th; Sacks 17. Weaknesses: Passing offense 68th; kickoff returns 110th.

Boston College: Strengths: Rushing defense 16th; Scoring defense 18th; Sacks allowed 39th; Punt returns 28th. Weaknesses: Total offense: 98th; Passing offense 95th; Sacks 99th.

Despite USC’s struggles, it’s interesting that they are still ranked high in most power polls, including 13 in the Sagarin rankings. The Trojans have played the sixth toughest schedule in the nation.

Boston College is 40th in Sagarin rankings and had the 45th toughest schedule.


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[pm530]

NCAAF
Write-up


Saturday, December 26

Motor City Bowl (aka: Little Caesars Pizza Bowl)
Ohio U is one of three bowl teams this season that has never won bowl game; Bobcats are also trying for first 10-win season since 1968. Ohio is 9-2 vs spread in last 11 games- they lost on this field 20-10 three weeks ago to Central Michigan in MAC title game. Ohio is trying to snap 0-8 bowl skid for MAC teams.

Marshall lost three of last four games and fired its coach after 52-21 loss at UTEP in regular season finale; which coaching staff do you think was preparing harder for this game-- the team whose coaches are scrambling to find new jobs, or team with its most wins since 1968? C-USA teams are 15-22 SU in bowls the last 7+ seasons, 1-2 so far this season.

Underdog is 4-2 vs spread in last six Motor City Bowls, with an average total of 62.1 in last seven (game is in a dome, so weather isn't a worry). Ohio U has 36 takeaways this year, most in country; they blocked four punts, scored five TDs on returns. I like Ohio Bobcats to win this one.

Meineke Car Care Bowl
North Carolina will have crowd edge here, with Charlotte only 65 miles from Chapel Hill, but they played in this game LY and are here for third time in last five years-- Pitt players have to more excited to be playing here. Tar Heels have only four senior starters: Pitt has three, just on the offensive line, 11 overall. Butch Davis is 4-1 in bowls (5-0 vs spread); Wannstedt is 0-1, losing 3-0 to Oregon State in Sun Bowl LY.

Pitt lost last two games by total of four points; their three losses in '09 are by total of 11 points; Panthers are 7-2 vs spread as the favorite this year. Favorites are 4-2 vs spread in last six Meineke Bowls. ACC clubs are 10-16 SU in bowl games the last three years. Carolina is 3-1 as a dog this season with a third-year starting QB, but Pitt's senior QB Stull has had a terrific season and should be difference here. I like Pitt in this one.

Emerald Bowl
Boston College had its 8-game bowl winning streak ended by Vanderbilt LY; Eagles won last four bowls when they weren't the favorite. BC was 2-3 on road this year (1-4 vs spread); they have four 2-years starters on OL. BC's last three bowls were decided by total of six points. Eagles are 2-4 vs bowl teams this season. USC is 5-3.

USC covered one of six road games this year; they have nine new starters on defense this year and two new coordinators. Trojans are 6-2 in last 8 bowls, but last seven bowls were all either Rose/Orange bowls, so this is different, playing in a baseball stadium.

Underdogs are 20-5-1 vs spread in ACC teams' last 26 bowls (before the UNC-Pitt game). USC is playing in a non-BCS bowl for first time since 2001; how interested are Trojans going to be in this game? Both teams have a freshman QB; BC's QB is a 25-year old who played in the minor leagues before going to college. If Trojans are into it, they should roll.

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[Udog]

NCAAF


Saturday, December 26

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Tips and Trends
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North Carolina Tarheels vs. Pittsburgh Panthers [ESPN | 4:30 PM ET]

North Carolina: North Carolina comes into their bowl game with a record of 8-4 SU and 6-5 ATS for the season. The Tarheels lost their last game of the season to NC State to inevitably play very close to home. North Carolina is 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS away from home this season. They are also 3-1 ATS this season as the listed underdog. A big reason for the Tarheels success as an underdog is their defense. North Carolina ranks 6th in the country in total defense, allowing less that 270 total YPG. This Tarheels defense is great against both the pass and the run, ranking in the top 15 in each category. North Carolina has held 8 of their 12 opponents this year to 17 PTS or fewer. This North Carolina offense is starting to see some life, as they are averaging more than 30 PPG over their past 3 games. QB T.J. Yates has thrown more INTs than TDs, and the Tar Heels don't have any skill position players with more than 750 YDS from scrimmage.

North Carolina is 7-1 ATS last 8 games as an underdog.
Over is 7-2 last 9 games as an underdog.

Key Injuries - WR Joshua Adams (shoulder) is questionable.
DB Curtis Campbell (wrist) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24

Pittsburgh (-2, O/U 45): Pittsburgh comes into their bowl game stumbling a bit, losing their last 2 games SU. The Panthers finished the regular season at 9-3 SU and 7-4 ATS. Pittsburgh is 3-2 both SU and ATS this year away from home. The Panthers were 6-3 ATS this season as the listed favorite. You have to question the motivation of this Panthers team playing today, as they were one possession away from claiming the Big East Championship and earning a BCS bowl bid. RB Dion Lewis is the reigning Big East Player of the Year. Lewis averaged nearly 140 YPG which ranked him 3rd in the country, along with 17 TDs on the season. Pittsburgh has the 16th best scoring offense in the country, averaging 33 PPG. Prior to their last game against Cincinnati, this Panthers defense had held 7 straight opponents to 22 PTS or fewer. With a win today, Pittsburgh will finish with double digit wins in a season for the first time since 1981.

Pitt is 0-4 ATS last 4 bowl games.
Over is 5-1 last 6 games as a favorite of a field goal or less.

Key Injuries - DB Andrew Taglianetti (knee) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (OVER - Total of the Day)



Boston College Eagles vs. Southern Cal Trojans [ESPN | 8:00 PM ET]

Boston College: This is the 11th consecutive year that Boston College has gone bowling. Despite a new head coach and a projected last place league finish, BC is bowling yet again. The Eagles finished the season at 8-4 SU and 6-5 ATS. The Eagles were 2-3 SU away from home, including only 1 win ATS on the road. The Eagles were 2-2 ATS as an underdog this season. Boston College has been held under 20 PTS in 4 of their past 5 games. 25 year old freshman QB Dave Shinskie has really struggled this season with his accuracy, ranking last in the ACC in completion percentage. He has also only thrown 1 more TD than INTs on the season. RB Montel Harris carries this Eagles offense, as he has more than 1,350 rushing YDS this season along with 13 TDs. Defensively, the Eagles have held 5 of their previous 6 opponents to 20 PTS or fewer.

Boston College is 4-0 ATS last 4 bowl games as an underdog.
Under is 5-0 last 5 non conference games.

Key Injuries - DE Alex Albright (ankle) is questionable.
RB Rolandan Finch (illness) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17

USC (-7, O/U 45): How the mighty have fallen! USC will be playing in a bowl outside of the BCS for the first time since 2001. It's also the first time in 7 years that USC isn't at least sharing the Pac-10 Championship. USC has lost 3 of their past 5 games SU, and ended the season at 8-4 SU. The Trojans were dismal ATS this year, going 3-9 for the season. That includes losing 6 of their past 7 games ATS. USC has been favored in every game this season, and are 1-5 ATS as a favorite of 11 PTS or less. Freshman QB Matt Barkley has struggled this season, throwing only 1 more TDs that INTs on the season. Barkley is also averaging less than 175 YPG over his past 5 games. USC has only scored more than 21 PTS once in their past 5 contests. Despite some high profile breakdowns, this USC defense only allowed 20.4 PPG for the entire season. This Trojans defense held 5 opponents to single digit point totals this year.

USC is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games.
Over is 5-0 last 5 Bowl games.

Key Injuries - S Josh Pinkard (knee) is doubtful.
RB Joe McKnight (suspension) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 31 (Side of the Day)


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Sunday, December 27

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What bettors need to know
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Music City Bowl

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Clemson Tigers (-7, 51.5)

Scouting Clemson

Clemson started out slow, just 2-3 after its first five games. But the Tigers came on strong down the stretch in October and November, reeling off six consecutive victories before losing their final two games, including the ACC Championship against Georgia Tech.

Clemson put up big offensive numbers all year, led by ACC Player of the Year C.J. Spiller, who ranked fourth in the NCAA in all purpose yards and was the only player in college football to score a touchdown in every single game this season.

Dabo Sweeney’s squad hung 34+ in seven of their last eight games, a potent, quick strike offense that put up points in bunches.

Spiller is a tremendous all-purpose weapon, but he’s most assuredly not the only one. Frosh QB Kyle Parker overtook top prospect Willy Korn in fall camp and never looked back, finishing the season with nearly 2400 passing yards and 19 touchdowns. WR Jacoby Ford, like Spiller, is a speedy, big play weapon in the passing game.

The Tigers’ defense let them down in several of their biggest games. Clemson gave up 30+ points and more than 400 yards in both losses to Georgia Tech. The team escaped with an overtime win at Miami, despite allowing 37 points and more than 400 yards.

It was more of the same in their regular season finale loss to South Carolina, snapping a six-game winning streak: 34 points and just shy of 400 total yards allowed. This is not an elite level stop unit.

Scouting Kentucky

Like Clemson, Kentucky started slow, losing its first three SEC games. Kentucky also finished strong, reeling off a 5-2 mark in its final seven games, with one of those losses coming in overtime against Tennessee.

Kentucky’s stats weren’t particularly impressive. The Wildcats ranked 10th in SEC in both total offense and total defense.

But head coach Rich Brooks has never been about compiling stats – he’s about winning games, often with inferior talent. And they’ve been good underdogs all season long, with outright upset wins at Auburn (+13.5) and at Georgia (+10), as well as a two-point loss at South Carolina (+9) and an overtime affair against Tennessee (+3).

Four different quarterbacks took snaps for offensive coordinator Joker Phillips diverse attack this year. The original starter, Mike Hartline, got hurt midseason, opening the door for frosh Morgan Newton, who played well down the stretch. Randall Cobb quarterbacked in the Wildcat formation, while getting snaps at running back and wide receiver as well. Leading rusher Derrick Locke is a dangerous kick returner as well.

Kentucky’s defense has a handful of future NFL stars with cornerback Trevard Lindley, linebacker Micah Johnson along with defensive lineman Jeremy Jarmon and Corey Peters leading the way.

At times this year, the Wildcats struggled against the run, suffering an ugly home loss to Mississippi State when star back Anthony Dixon rolled up 252 rushing yards against them. And their pass defense really struggled down the stretch – their last two games were their worst two games of the year in terms of yards per pass attempt allowed.

Recent Bowl History

Clemson was favored in each of its last three bowl games but ended up losing each game outright. Last year, Nebraska notched the upset over the Tigers in the Gator Bowl. The Tigers are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 bowl appearances, a consistent underachiever.

Kentucky has won all three bowl games they’ve been to under Rich Brooks, as an underdog each time. Last year, the Wildcats pulled the 25-19 upset over East Carolina as 3-point dogs.

The Music City Bowl has been a house of horrors for the favorite. Over the last decade only one favorite has cashed in 10 tries in Nashville. Eight of the last 10 underdogs have won this game in outright fashion, including a pair of big dogs of more than a touchdown.

Injury concerns

Kentucky’s top defensive player for much of the year was LB Sam Maxwell. Maxwell won’t play here after shoulder surgery. But the Wildcats are expected to have QB Mike Hartline back on the field after he missed the final seven games of the regular season with a knee injury.

Clemson enters bowl season without any significant recent injuries or suspensions.

Very special teams

Both of these teams have tremendous return games. The team that gets a big play or two from its special teams will likely to turn that into a pointspread victory.

Clemson’s, C.J. Spiller ranks fourth in the country in kickoff returns, averaging 34 yards an attempt. He ran back four kickoffs for touchdowns this year alone, while adding a punt return touchdown as well. Teammate Jacoby Ford also has a punt return TD this year.

For Kentucky, Derrick Locke ranks eighth in the country, averaging just shy of 30 yards per return. Locke has a 100-yard kick return touchdown this season. His teammate, Randall Cobb, isn’t far behind, although Cobb doesn’t have enough attempts to qualify for the kick return rankings, but he did rank 15th in the country in punt returns, including a 73-yarder for a touchdown.

Line moves

Clemson opened as a 7.5-point favorite, but the line has dropped down to -7 with news that Hartline was going to play for Kentucky. The total has been bet down slightly from an opener of 53 to a current number of 51.5, although several ‘leading indicator’ books are back up to 52, telling us that this total is probably back on the way up.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel - Sun. POD


Kentucky vs. Clemson
The Wildcats look to take advantage of a Clemson team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games versus the SEC. Kentucky is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Clemson favored by only 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+7 1/2).

[Udog]

NCAAF


Monday, December 28

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What bettors need to know
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Independence Bowl

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Georgia Bulldogs (-7, 66)

In just their fifth meeting ever and first since 1980, Georgia and Texas A&M face off in one of the most appealing matchups in the 34-year history of the Independence Bowl

Line movement

The line opened with Georgia as a 7-point favorite and has held constant. The total opened at 64 but has since climbed two points as most bettors expect a high-scoring affair.

Although nearly three-fourths the betting public likes the Bulldogs -7, the Aggies and their moneyline odds (+245) and the over are overwhelming wagering favorites.

Significant injuries/suspensions

No meaningful players will miss the bowl for either team, although Georgia expects to return impact players safety Bacarri Rambo and wide receiver A.J. Green from injuries.

Green, arguably one of college football’s best players, suffered a shoulder injury and has missed the last three-and-a-half games.

Run, Dawgs, Run

As Georgia’s offensive line steadily improved the latter part of the season, the Bulldogs’ rushing attack began to produce. After averaging less than 3.4 yards per carry through its first six games, Georgia gained more than 5.5 per rush the last half of the year.

"We had a lot of success [running the football]," said freshman Washaun Ealey, who leads the Dogs with 639 rushing yards. "I hope we do it a lot in the future."

The “future” should start against Texas A&M; the Aggies are allowing more than 4.5 yards per carry.

Georgia head coach Mark Richt has said an effective rushing attack was the key to keeping the Aggies from monopolizing the football; Texas A&M averages 80.1 offensive plays per game, second most in the FBS.

Motivation and missing pieces

After playing in a January bowl in six of the last seven years, the Bulldogs are having to settle for a minor bowl. If Georgia could have won an additional game, it likely would have gone to the Outback Bowl. Instead, its 7-5 record and a presumed lack of traveling fans slipped the Dogs down to the Independence.

Texas A&M is just happy to go bowling after missing the postseason in four of its previous seven seasons.

Following Georgia’s regular season, three defensive assistants, including the defensive coordinator, were fired and decided not to coach in the bowl. Defensive line coach Rodney Garner, a graduate assistant, and program coordinator will fill in for the departed coaches.

Mistakes and miscues

Georgia shot itself in the foot all season with penalties and turnovers; the Bulldogs are 119th in the FBS in turnover margin (-1.42) and are being penalized 8.3 times for 70 yards per game.

In only two of its 12 games has Georgia had a better turnover margin than its opponent—against Auburn and Georgia Tech—and in just two games less than 40 penalty yards—against the same two opponents, the Bulldogs’ two most meaningful wins this season.

Texas A&M has forced more than twice as many turnovers as Georgia has (21/10). Senior Jordan Pugh leads the Aggies with three interceptions and lineman Von Miller, besides leading the nation with 17 sacks, has forced four fumbles. No other Aggie has forced more than one.

Key matchup

Texas A&M’s Jerrod Johnson is the perfect type of quarterback—a tremendous passer who often relies on his running—to give Georgia’s defense fits.

The Bulldogs don’t necessarily yield lots of yardage but, in often granting opposing offenses favorable field position, give up lots of points. Johnson and the Aggie offense’s up-tempo attack have scored 31+ points in nine of 12 games.

In his last game, the Aggie quarterback accounted for 439 total yards on 47 plays and guided A&M to 39 points on a Texas defense ranked third in the nation and allowing only 13 points per game.

"We feel we can match up with anyone in the country," Johnson said.

Trends

During Georgia’s current 12-year consecutive bowl streak, the Bulldogs are 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS in bowls.

After going 6-3 SU and 6-3 ATS in bowl games from 1976-1990, Texas A&M is 2-10 SU and 5-7 ATS in its last 12 bowls, including 1-5 ATS in its last six.

Since its loss to Alabama a year ago, Georgia has given up 34 or more points in 10 of 21 games. During that same time, the Dogs are 6-15 ATS.


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[pm530]

NCAAF
Write-up


Monday, December 28

Independence Bowl

7-5 Georgia had one of its worst seasons in memory; this is just second time in eight years they're not playing in January. Dawgs have only 10 takeaways all season (tied for worst in country) and are 2-5 vs spread as a favorite. Richt fired three defensive coaches after regular season, so the Georgia staff is coaching shorthanded. A minus-17 turnover ratio and a team missing three assistant coaches playing in Shreveport? Not the best scenario for Georgia fans.

Texas A&M is closer to Shreveport than Georgia; they didn't go bowling LY, so they should have more enthusiasm here, but Aggies lost last three bowls, while Georgia is 12-3 in last 15 bowls, winning the last three by 7-31-12 points. Richt is 6-2 in bowls, covering last two as the favorite.

First bowl game for former Packer coach Sherman; Texas Tech was only winning team they beat this season. Aggies allowed 47+ points in four of their games. /Considering Georgia ran ball behind young OL for average of 217 yards a game over last six games, would expect Dawgs to try and pound ball, while Aggies' terrific QB Johnson will throw it more. Aggies are 2-10 in last twelve bowls; this is their fourth bowl in eight years.

Big 12 teams are 9-6 in bowls last two years. Kentucky's loss Sunday makes SEC teams 19-8 in last 27 bowls. A&M has big edge at QB and also maybe in motivation. If weather is good, this should be hi-scoring.

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[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel


Texas A&M vs. Georgia
The Bulldogs look to build on their 8-3 ATS record in their last 11 bowl games. Georgia is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulldogs favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-6 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

MONDAY, DECEMBER 28

Game 221-222: Texas A&M vs. Georgia
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 88.591; Georgia 97.709
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 9; 70
Vegas Line: Georgia by 6 1/2; 66 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-6 1/2); Over



TUESDAY, DECEMBER 29

Game 223-224: UCLA vs. Temple
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 92.524; Temple 86.221
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 6 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: UCLA by 3 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-3 1/2); Under

Game 225-226: Wisconsin vs. Miami (FL)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 94.071; Miami (FL) 99.324
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 5 1/2; 61
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 3; 58
Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (-3); Over



WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 30

Game 227-228: Bowling Green vs. Idaho
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 77.958; Idaho 77.738
Dunkel Line: Even; 62
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 2; 68
Dunkel Pick: Idaho (+2); Under

Game 231-232: Nebraska vs. Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 100.004; Arizona 102.051
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2; 37
Vegas Line: Pick; 40
Dunkel Pick: Arizona; Under



THURSDAY, DECEMBER 31

Game 229-230: Navy vs. Missouri
Dunkel Ratings: Navy 90.031; Missouri 94.564
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 4 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Missouri by 6 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Navy (+6 1/2); Under

Game 233-234: Air Force vs. Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 88.675; Houston 95.043
Dunkel Line: Houston by 6 1/2; 68
Vegas Line: Houston by 4 1/2; 63
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-4 1/2); Over

Game 235-236: Stanford vs. Oklahoma
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 95.406; Oklahoma 107.533
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 12; 61
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 8; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-8); Over

Game 237-238: Iowa State vs. Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 85.208; Minnesota 88.352
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 3; 37
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-2 1/2); Under

Game 239-240: Tennessee vs. Virginia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 96.109; Virginia Tech 103.224
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 7; 54
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 5 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-5 1/2); Over



FRIDAY, JANUARY 1

Game 241-242: Northwestern vs. Auburn
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 85.662; Auburn 94.781
Dunkel Line: Auburn by 9; 48
Vegas Line: Auburn by 7; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (-7); Under

Game 243-244: Florida State vs. West Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 90.350; West Virginia 95.197
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 5; 55
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 2 1/2; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-2 1/2); Under

Game 245-246: LSU vs. Penn State
Dunkel Ratings: LSU 101.843; Penn State 101.701
Dunkel Line: Even; 40
Vegas Line: Penn State by 3; 44
Dunkel Pick: LSU (+3); Under

Game 247-248: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 104.600; Oregon 111.960
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 7 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: Oregon by 3 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-3 1/2); Over

Game 249-250: Cincinnati vs. Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 100.018; Florida 110.596
Dunkel Line: Florida by 10 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: Florida by 12 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+12 1/2); Over



SATURDAY, JANUARY 2

Game 251-252: Northern Illinois vs. South Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 82.698; South Florida 88.218
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 5 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: South Florida by 7; 49
Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (+7); Under

Game 253-254: Connecticut vs. South Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 90.006; South Carolina 95.102
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 5; 42
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 4 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (-5); Under

Game 255-256: Mississippi vs. Oklahoma State
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 103.907; Oklahoma State 97.854
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 3; 57
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 6; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (-3); Over

Game 257-258: Arkansas vs. East Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas 99.858; East Carolina 94.043
Dunkel Line: Arkansas by 6; 66
Vegas Line: Arkansas by 8; 63 1/2
Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (+8); Over

Game 259-260: Michigan State vs. Texas Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 92.608; Texas Tech 99.168
Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 6 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 8 1/2; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+8 1/2); Over

Game 261-262: Boise State vs. TCU
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 102.082; TCU 110.181
Dunkel Line: TCU by 8; 58
Vegas Line: TCU by 7; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: TCU (-7); Over


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